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Public Expenditure Review of Armenia Is Part of the World Public Expenditure Review of Armenia Bank Country Study Series A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY Public Expenditure Review of Armenia is part of the World Review of ArmeniaPublic Expenditure Bank Country Study series. These reports are published with Public Expenditure the approval of the subject government to communicate the results of the Bank’s work on the economic and related condi- Public Disclosure Authorized tions of member countries to governments and to the devel- Review of Armenia opment community. This, the first full-scale World Bank Public Expenditure Review for Armenia, reviews the main fiscal trends in Armenia for the period of 1997-2001 and develops recommendations with respect to further fiscal adjustment, expenditure prioritization, and budget consolidation. The analysis focuses on the follow- ing core issues: sustainability of fiscal adjustment, fiscal transparency, expenditure priorities, and short-term expenditure management given the existing economy-wide institutional constraints. This study covers extra-budgetary funds, in-kind external Public Disclosure Authorized grants, subsidies provided by the state-owned companies in the energy and utility sectors, and operations of the Social Insurance Fund, as well as regular budgetary spending. It suggests a medium-term action plan to address identified weaknesses. Sectoral chapters review health, education, and social protection and insurance. The report also analyzes budget support for core public infrastructure, and Armenia’s public investment program. World Bank Country Studies are available individually or by subscription, both in print and on-line. Public Disclosure Authorized ISBN 0-8213-5584-8 THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 USA Telephone: 202 473-1000 printed on Public Disclosure Authorized THE WORLD BANK Internet: www.worldbank.org recycled ™xHSKIMBy355848zv":;:&:>:% E-mail: [email protected] paper A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY Public Expenditure Review of Armenia THE WORLD BANK Washington, D.C. Copyright © 2003 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing: August 2003 1 2 3 4 05 04 03 World Bank Country Studies are among the many reports originally prepared for internal use as part of the continuing analysis by the Bank of the economic and related conditions of its developing member countries and to facilitate its dialogues with the governments. Some of the reports are published in this series with the least possible delay for the use of governments, and the academic, business, financial, and development com- munities. The typescript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to journal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. Some sources cited in this paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the govern- ments they represent. The World Bank cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply on the part of the World Bank any judgment of the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The material in this publication is copyrighted. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and normally will grant permission for use. Permission to photocopy items for internal or personal use, for the internal or personal use of specific clients, or for educational classroom use, is granted by the World Bank, provided that the appropriate fee is paid. Please contact the Copyright Clearance Center before photocopying items. Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. 222 Rosewood Drive Danvers, MA 01923, U.S.A. Tel: 978-750-8400 • Fax: 978-750-4470. For permission to reprint individual articles or chapters, please fax your request with complete information to the Republication Department, Copyright Clearance Center, fax 978-750-4470. All other queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the World Bank at the address above, or faxed to 202-522-2422. ISBN: 0-8213-5584-8 eISBN: 0-8213-5585-6 ISSN: 0253-2123 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested. CONTENTS Abstract . .ix Acknowledgments . .xi Abbreviation and Acronyms . .xiii Executive Summary . .1 Introduction . .13 1. Macroeconomic and Fiscal Environment . .15 Recent Economic Trends . .15 Major Features of Fiscal Adjustment . .17 Revenue Performance: The Challenge Remains Unmet . .24 Low Credibility of the Budget . .29 Budget Arrears . .32 Public Debt . .33 2. Main Expenditure Trends . .37 Expenditure Trends in Functional Classification . .37 Expenditure Trends in Economic Classification and Quality of Budgetary Information . .44 Additional Problems with the Quality of Budget Data . .48 3. Off-Budget Elements of the Fiscal System . .53 Extra-Budgetary Funds . .54 Grants . .55 Quasi-fiscal Deficits and Losses Generated by State Enterprises . .57 Government Guarantees on Commercial Credits . .62 4. Strengthening Public Expenditure Management . .65 Existing Situation Analysis . .66 Structure of the Budget System . .71 Budget Formulation . .77 Budget Execution . .85 5. Public Expenditure in the Education Sector . .89 Financing of Education . .89 Efficiency of Education . .93 Equity of Education . .102 6. Public Expenditure in the Health Sector . .109 Health Sector in Armenia: Outcomes, Resources, and Utilization . .109 Public Health Policies and the Reform Process . .113 Public Financing of Health Care . .116 Equity Impact of Public Health Expenditures: The Role of Out-of-pocket Payments . .119 7. Social Protection and Insurance . .125 Social Assistance . .126 Social Insurance . .131 Other Social Insurance and Non-insurance Benefits . .139 iii IV CONTENTS 8. Main Financial Requirements in Public Infrastructure . .141 9. Public Investments: Trends, Structure and Sources of Financing . .149 Annexes Annex 1 Assessment and Recommendations on Budget Management System . .157 Annex 2 MTEF Action Plan Matrix . .163 Annex 3 Fiscal and Quasi-fiscal Subsidies: Sources of Financing and Recipients,1999–2000 . .169 Annex 4 Directions for Re-classification of Non-classified Budget Expenditures under the GDF 2001 . .173 Annex 5 Revised Demographic Estimates . .177 References . .181 TABLES Table A. The Pace of Fiscal Adjustment . .2 Table B. Main Recommendations . .3 Table 1.1. Selected Macroeconomic Indicators . .16 Table 1.2. Consolidated Government Budget, Percent of GDP . .17 Table 1.3. Armenia’s Indicators of Fiscal Adjustment, 1995–2001 . .20 Table 1.4. Sources of Deficit Financing, State Budget, 1997–2001, Percent of GDP, Cash Basis . .23 Table 1.5. Various Indicators of the State Budget Deficit in 1997–2001, Percent of GDP, Cash Basis . .24 Table 1.6. Total Government Tax Revenues in Transition Economies, Percent of GDP . .25 Table 1.7. Tax Arrears, Stocks by the Year End, Million Dram . .27 Table 1.8. The Level of State Budget Execution: Budget Expenditures . .30 Table 1.9. Budget Execution Across Various Sectors, Percent of the Approved State Budget Allocations, 1998–2001 . .30 Table 1.10. Contribution of Delays in External Disbursements to the Overall Expenditure Cuts. 2000 State Budget, Million Drams . .31 Table 1.11. Budget Arrears, Including the Pension Fund, Million Dram . .32 Table 1.12. Treasury Bills: Contribution to Deficit Financing and Service Costs, Percent of GDP . .34 Table 1.13. Treasury Bills: Average Maturity and Yields . .34 Table 2.1. State Budget in Functional Classification, 1997–2001, Percent of Total (cash based) . .38 Table 2.2. Consolidated Budget Expenditures, Percent of GDP . .38 Table 2.3. Main Expenditure Categories of the Consolidated Budget, Percent of GDP . .38 Table 2.4. Structure of the Consolidated Budget: Main Expenditure Categories . .39 Table 2.5. Public Spending on Education and Health, Percent of GDP . ..
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