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Pakistan's Strategic Culture SAND 2014-1749P Unlimited Release April 2014 Pakistan’s Strategic Culture: Formulation of Counterterrorism Policy Dr. Muhammad Tehsin Assistant Professor Quaid-I-Azam University Islamabad, Pakistan Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. Pakistan’s Strategic Culture NOTICE: This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, make any warranty, express or implied, or assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represent that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contractors or subcontractors. The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contractors. The Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) at Sandia National Laboratories assists political and technical experts from around the world to acquire the technology-based tools they need to assess, design, analyze, and implement nonproliferation, arms control, and other cooperative security measures. As part of its mission, the CMC sponsors research on cooperative security and the role of technology. Reports of that work are provided through the Occasional Papers series. Research is conducted by Sandia staff, international technical experts, and visiting scholars. For additional information on the CMC’s programs, visit the CMC home page on the World Wide Web at <http://www.cmc.sandia.gov> or write to: Cooperative Monitoring Center Sandia National Laboratories Mail Stop 1373 Albuquerque, NM 87185-1373 For specific information on this report contact: Adriane Littlefield at the above address. This report was prepared by Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM 87185 and Livermore, CA 94550 4 Pakistan’s Strategic Culture Pakistan’s Strategic Culture: Formulation of Counterterrorism Policy Abstract The Islamist attack on the twin towers changed the world, but Pakistan’s strategic culture did not change. President Musharraf publicly withdrew support for the Taliban in Afghanistan, and declared discontinuation of cross-border infiltration in Indian-held Kashmir. In reality, support continued to certain sections of the Afghan Taliban, and acts of terrorism in India, exemplified the facetious transformation in strategic culture. The confusion in stance left a void in strategic culture and the strategic environment. Pakistan’s strategy of sub-conventional warfare has led to a backlash inside the country, in the form of Islamist subversion of the rule of law. The failure of the state to formulate a coherent counterterrorism policy has given way to non-state actors. This policy void has endangered the country’s national identity and territorial integrity. In the absence of such a policy, Islamism festers. Resultantly, the state is faced with an Islamist take over. This has consequences for regional and global stability as well as nuclear security. Pakistan should formulate counterterrorism policy, transform strategic culture, and seek connectivity with the rest of the world to overcome the threat of Islamism. 5 Pakistan’s Strategic Culture The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect on the position of their respective institutions or Sandia National Laboratories. 6 Pakistan’s Strategic Culture Contents ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................................. 5 ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................................................ 9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................... 10 1. PROBLEM STATEMENT........................................................................................................................... 13 2. PAKISTAN’S STRATEGIC CULTURE .................................................................................................... 16 2.1. WHAT IS STRATEGIC CULTURE ............................................................................................................. 16 2.2. SHIFTS IN PAKISTAN’S STRATEGIC CULTURE ......................................................................................... 18 2.3. IMPACT OF STRATEGIC CULTURE ON COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY ...................................................... 19 3. ANALYSIS OF THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS ................................................................................... 21 3.1. TAKEOVER BY ISLAMISTS: LEAST LIKELY/LEAST DESIRABLE SCENARIO .............................................. 22 3.2. AMBIGUITY TOWARD ISLAMISTS: MORE LIKELY/LESS DESIRABLE SCENARIO ...................................... 24 3.3. DEFEAT OF ISLAMISTS: LESS LIKELY/MOST DESIRABLE SCENARIO ...................................................... 26 4. COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY TO ACHIEVE THE MOST DESIRABLE SCENARIO .............. 28 4.1. MILITARY OPERATIONS WITH A LIGHT FOOTPRINT ................................................................................ 28 4.2. ROLE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ................................................................................................... 28 4.3. PREVENTING SECTARIANIZATION OF IDENTITY ..................................................................................... 29 5. FORMULATION OF COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY: PERSPECTIVES FOR STRATEGIC CULTURE ..................................................................................................................................................... 30 5.1. FOCUS ON INTERNAL SECURITY ............................................................................................................ 30 5.2. CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS ................................................................................................................. 31 5.3. INTERNATIONAL CONNECTIVITY ........................................................................................................... 31 6. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................................. 33 APPENDIX A: A MIGRANT STATE .................................................................................................................... 36 ABOUT THE AUTHOR ........................................................................................................................................... 38 7 Pakistan’s Strategic Culture Figures Figure 1: Map of Pakistan’s Sectarian Violence (Reuters) .......................................................................................... 15 Figure 2: Strategic Culture ........................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 3: Three mindsets and the overlaps .................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 4: Trends of Sectarian Violence (www.san-pips.com) ..................................................................................... 29 Figure 5: Pakistan - The Human Development Index .................................................................................................. 32 Tables Table 1: Terrorist Attacks in Pakistan in 2012 ............................................................................................................ 20 8 Pakistan’s Strategic Culture Acronyms ANP Awami National Party APC All Parties Conference ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations CIA Central Intelligence Agency FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FC Frontier Corps HDI Human Development Index ISI Inter-Services Intelligence directorate JSD Joint Strategic Directive KPK Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province NACTA National Counter Terrorism Authority NADRA National Database and Registration Authority NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NWS Nuclear-Weapons State PML (N) Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz PPP Pakistan People’s Party PTI Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf RAW Research and Analysis Wing TTP Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan UN United Nations U.S. United States 9 Pakistan’s Strategic Culture Pakistan’s Strategic Culture: Formulation of Counterterrorism Policy Executive Summary Pakistan is at a tipping point. While there is gradual strengthening of electoral democracy, there is also the growing power of Islamist extremism. The internal security problem caused by Islamist violence poses a strategic threat. In the regional domain, foreign policy is stagnant vis-à- vis the strategic environment. Pakistan’s India-centered threat perception and involvement in Afghanistan has not paid off. India’s economic trajectory, Iran’s rapprochement with
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