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Afghanistan Factor in the Trilateral Relations of the United States, Pakistan and China (2008-2016)

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Afghanistan Factor in the Trilateral Relations of the United States, Pakistan and China (2008-2016) AFGHANISTAN FACTOR IN THE TRILATERAL RELATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES, PAKISTAN AND CHINA (2008-2016) By SAIMA PARVEEN Reg. No.12-AU-M.PHIL-P/SCI-F-4 Ph. D (Political Science) SUPERVISOR Prof. Dr. JEHANZEB KHALIL Pro-Vice Chancellor Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan Co-Supervisor Prof. Dr. Taj Muharram Khan DEPARTMENT OF POLITCAL SCIENCE FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, ABDUL WALI KHAN UNIVERSITY MARDAN Year 2018 i AFGHANISTAN FACTOR IN THE TRILATERAL RELATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES, PAKISTAN AND CHINA (2008-2016) By SAIMA PARVEEN Reg. No.12-AU-M.PHIL-P/SCI-F-4 Ph. D (Political Science) Thesis submitted to the Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan in the partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Ph. D in Political Science DEPARTMENT OF POLITCAL SCIENCE FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, ABDUL WALI KHAN UNIVERSITY MARDAN Year 2018 ii Author’s Declaration I, Saima Parveen_hereby state that my Ph D thesis titled, “ Afghanistan Factor in the Trilateral Relations of the United States, Pakistan and China (2008-2016) is my own work and has not been submitted previously by me for taking any degree from this University i.e. ABDUL WALI KHAN UNIVERSITY MARDAN or anywhere else in the country/world. At any time if my statement is found to be incorrect even after my Graduate, the University has the right to withdraw my Ph D degree. Name of Student: Saima Parveen Date: 10 January, 2018 iii Plagiarism Undertaking I solemnly declare that research work presented in the thesis titled “AFGHANISTAN FACTOR IN THE TRILATERAL RELATONS OF THE UNITED STATES, PAKISTAN AND CHINA (2008-2016)” is solely my research work with no significant contribution from any other person. Small contribution/help wherever taken has been duly acknowledged and that complete thesis has been written by me. I understand the zero tolerance policy of the HEC and Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan towards plagiarism. Therefore, I as an author of the above titled thesis declare that no portion or of my thesis has been plagiarized and any material used as reference is properly referred/cited. I understand that if I am found guilty of any formal plagiarism in the above titled thesis even after award of Ph D degree, the University reserves the right to withdraw /revoke my Ph D degree and the HEC and the University has the right to publish my name on the HEC website on which names of students are placed who submitted plagiarized thesis. Student/Author Signature:__________________________ Saima Parveen iv Certificate of Approval This is to certify that the research work presented in this thesis, titled, “AFGHANISTAN FACTOR IN THE TRILATERAL RELATONS OF THE UNITED STATES, PAKISTAN AND CHINA (2008-2016)was conducted by Ms. Saima Parveen under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Jehanzeb Khalil. No part of this thesis has been submitted anywhere else for any other degree. This thesis is submitted to the Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the field of Political Science Department of Political Science University of Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan. a) Student Name: Signature:________________ b) Supervisor : Name Signature:________________ (Designation & Office Address) Signature:________________ ………………………………. ………………………………. c) HoD: Name Signature:________________ (Designation & Office Address) ………………………………. ………………………………. d) Concerned Dean : Name Signature:________________ (Designation & Office Address) ……………………………… ……………………………… v Dedicated To My Parents vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The greatest bless has been bestowed upon me by Allah Almighty for enabling me to complete my research work. My list of those to whom I am deeply grateful is long but the very first acknowledgement has to be to my supervisor Prof. Dr. Jehanzeb Khalil, Pro-Vice Chancellor, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, who has not only assisted me at each and every stage with his thought provoking input and research guidance but also encouraged me in accomplishing the daunting task. My Co-supervisor Prof. Dr. Taj Muhrram Khan, Professor at Department of Political Science, Dean of Social Sciences at University of Peshawar has throughout guided me in Methodology and helped me in timely completion of my dissertation. Having said that this endeavour would not have been successful but for the continued support of my father Muhammad Rafiq Khan and my mother Neelum Begum, who have been a source of courage and inspiration throughout the process. My brothers Kamran Ahmad, Major in Pak Army,Military Operations Directorate, GHQ, Zulfiqar Ahmad, Additional Commissioner, FBR, Furqan Ahmad, Communication officer. I am grateful to my sister in law Kateriziana, who has made my access to Aston University library of United Kingdom possible and enriched my research with all available material, latest books and journals. I would be failing in my duty if I do not place on record my sincere gratitude to all those friends, colleagues and advisors who selflessly not only encouraged me but also assisted me in providing much needed information enabling me to complete my research assignment. The list is too long but I would briefly mention a few illustrious names without whose help this task would have been impossible. During the process I came across with Mr G.M.Sikandar, a retired Federal Secretary who has fully cooperated in my research’s primary source collection. I am thus deeply indebted to him for being forthcoming and selflessly assistive. Besides, I would like to acknowledge the help and assistance of Hidayat-ur-Rehman, Research Officer who throughout the assignment has helped me. Intellectual discourse with Consular Mr. Amjid Amin made me confident over the theme and sequences of my thesis. As I have used statistical analysis as main part of testing my thesis Hypothesis hence the required expertise I got from Mr. Yahya Bakhtiar who taught me advanced research techniques. Moreover, I am grateful for kind cooperation of former Foreign Minister of Pakistan Mrs. Hina Rabbani Khar, former foreign secretary, Shamshad Ahmad, former ambassador, Rustam Shah Mohmand, former Chief Secretary of KPK, Azam Khan, former Interior Minister, Aftab Khan Sherpao, former Interior Secretary, Mr. Aziz vii Khan, former foreign Secretary, Mr. Riaz Muhammad Khan, former foreign secretary, Mr. Arif Kamal, former ambassador, Ms. Fauzia Nasreen, former ambassador, Mr. Khalid Khattak former ambassador, Tasneem Noorani, former Chief Secretary KPK Khalid Aziz, KPK Additional Chief Secretary, Khalid Pervez, former Directors of ISI and presently defence analysts Brig. Ghazzanfar, Brig Asad Munir, Brig. Mehmud Shah, Brig. Nadir Mir, Brig. Javed Lodhi, Defence Analyst Dr HasanAskari Rizvi, Retd. Col. Zahurul Haq, Brig. Yusaf, and Senior Journalist Peshawar, Rahimullah Yusafzai, whom I have interviewed for my dissertation. Besides I am thankful to foreign think-tanks of different countries as Mr. Christopher Donnelly, director of the Institute of statecraft, Mr. Shuan Gregory, director at Durham university, UK, Mr. Harsh V. Pant, Professor at King college London, Ms. Vichaya Pitsuwa, senior journalist Thailand, Ms. Mariet Shanthie D’Souza, President of Mantraya India, Mr. Noman Hanif, Lecturer at Birbek university UK, Mr. Ahsan, Professor at UK university. Thank you all for the thought provoking views and comments given during the course of interviews and exchange. viii Abstract Present day world as a global village is marked by what we call the challenges of strategic power game, oil politics, economic adventurism, military occupations and invasions in the name of ‘self-defense’. Global players have national interests and their foreign policy revolves around energy security, strategic economic interests and how to access mineral and energy reserves. Afghanistan strategic location provides access and proximity to the West Asia, the Middle East, South Asia and Central Asia but peace and stability inside Afghanistan is question of the day. Hence the question to be investigated are that What is the importance of a strong and independent Afghanistan for major players like Pakistan, China and the US? What are the major grounds of convergence and divergence of interests of triangular relations in Afghanistan perspective? What are the viable policy options for Pakistan, China and the US for strategic reassurance and resolve? For conducting this research sequential mixed method design is used with three major phases namely, an initial data gathering stage, a questionnaire survey, and a qualitative data gathering phase. The United stated interests in Afghanistan revolves around myriad factors as neutralization of the Afghan Taliban threat by military means, training and arming the Afghan National Army and the Police, to strengthen the capacity of the Kabul government to govern effectively and help in economic reconstruction of Afghanistan. Pakistan wants peace and stability inside Afghanistan, to secure economic and defence interests as well to access natural resources of Central Asian Republics. While China interests revolves around economic and security, and to play role of mediator in Afghanistan peace process because the very security of Xinjiang is threatened. All these three players are having convergence on fighting against violent extremism, improving of regional relations, regional stability and peaceful dispensation in Afghanistan, dialogue with Taliban and Pakistan’s Key Role in Afghanistan peace talks. Pakistan and the US have divergences as preferential Treatment of India, growing Role of India in Afghanistan,
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