Experiential Interruptions 62

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation

Experiential Interruptions

Near-future neutral scenario Autonomous vehicles pave the way for experiential transportation. Your car can double as a theater, a cocktail bar, or a library… for an additional fee. When the car is no longer the product you buy, service is essential and content is still king. If you’re unwilling to pay a premi- um, you might be stuck watching a movie you’ve already seen while also being inundated with deliberate product placement. Pop-up ads block those scenic mixed reality views during long car trips. Augmented OLED windows malfunction and lag, displaying blue screens and spinning wheels, giving new meaning to the term “car crash.” Get- ting from one place to another is a trade-off between the journey and the destination.

3RD YEAR ON THE LIST Exponential Growth in Autonomous Driving Data

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES using a virtual environment based on the Approximately 200,000 Tesla vehicles Unity gaming engine. Rockstar Games The quality of any algo- now navigate the roads using autopilot. received attention for stopping organi- rithm has a significant With the increase in autonomous miles zations such as OpenAI from using its correlation with the logged, emerging patterns in the data “Grand Theft Auto” game as a platform for training self-driving cars. size of the dataset on will help solve some of the problematic edge cases in the algorithms (those that Synthesized data can help us get to the which it is trained. The occur rarely or only under extreme con- edge cases faster, meaning more prog- size of these datasets in ditions). The current algorithms have ress per mile analyzed, and making the autonomous driving is at times struggled to identify stationary algorithms safer overall. To put edge objects, in the worst cases resulting cases in context, think of how many reaching an inflection in catastrophic crashes. Shortcuts to miles one would have to drive to come point as the number of training the AI systems are beginning across a pedestrian on stilts crossing autonomous car users to mature. Helm.ai uses a deep teaching paths with a cyclist doing a wheelie in a methodology that programs the system rainstorm? It sounds highly unlikely, but regularly generating to understand base rules like object per- if the algorithm has never been exposed real-world driving data manence, effectively giving the AI a head to such a situation, it might make a fatal approaches critical start on learning. Massachusetts Institute error—which is why it’s important to mass. Beyond this influx of Technology created a digital laborato- expose the algorithm to as many of these ry to translate real-world situations into atypical cases as possible. of real, raw data, meth- simulated scenarios using deepfake tech- Training data is critical for building AIs like those used in autonomous vehicles. ods of generating syn- nology—allowing AI to train quickly and thetic training data are at lower cost in a virtual environment, but on data based on real-life circum- reaching maturity. stances. Volvo trains AI on edge cases

Exponential Growth in Autonomous Driving Data continued

DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS The company with the most training • Helm.ai data should best be able to reduce its ve- • Oxbotica hicles’ autonomous-driving error rates, potentially cultivating a powerful brand • Nvidia association with safety—think Volvo in the ’80s or Subaru in the 2010s. With the stigma of autonomous driving as an under-regulated and potentially untrust- worthy technology, perceived safety performance may be the most important factor for winning market share. For carmakers, however, autonomous algorithms aren’t necessarily a “winner take all” market, because the developer with the best system could resell or license its software to other players.

As cars with autonomous features become popular, they generate data to help systems improve.

4TH YEAR ON THE LIST Autonomous Vehicle Testing Gets Regulated

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada Creating learner’s permits or driver’s • Focus Group on AI for Autonomous New rules will govern (along with some federal initiatives) lead licenses for AI-enabled autos will help and Assisted Driving how autonomous in testing autonomous vehicles on public socialize the technology and establish ex- • U.S. National Highway Traffic vehicles can be tested. roads, with other states and countries pectations for experiences and protocols Safety Administration catching up. Since 2012, at least 41 states on the road. For autonomous vehicles Current legislation and Washington, D.C., have consid- to become safer, they must be tested in • National Conference of State around autonomous ered legislation related to autonomous conditions similar to those where they Legislators vehicles. More than 50 self-driving will be deployed. Because of this dynam- cars is in flux and companies are testing their technolo- ic, autonomous car services will likely has yet to be set at a gies in California. ITU, the specialized arrive soonest in areas with existing national level. United Nations agency for telecom and testing sites. The fragmented regulatory information communications technol- environment, which will remain until ogy, created a focus group to develop federal laws and guidelines are imposed, performance standards for autonomous will result in conditional and situational vehicles, including what an “AI driving rules, such as how Cadillac centrally des- test” should entail. ignates sections of road compatible with Super Cruise, its AI-enabled hands-free driving assistance product.

Who will give AI its driving license?

3RD YEAR ON THE LIST Analog Fallbacks

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS As more systems and Many car locks today depend on elec- There is hardly a more apt application • Cadillac tricity and become inoperable when the of the phrase “They don’t make ’em like • Corvette infrastructure transition car battery dies. Tesla’s Model 3 has a they used to” than the auto industry. As to digital formats, and mechanical system for the front doors, vehicles become more automated, manu- • Tesla more purely digital sys- but not the rear doors. Such vulnerabili- facturers must design for the appropriate • Range Rover ties can cause life-threatening scenarios: level of redundancy and for a population tems are built, fewer of A failed car battery locked the doors of of people with limited understanding of these systems will rely an Ohio man’s Cadillac and trapped him how the underlying systems work. on analog or manual in the car for 13 hours, and, in another case, a Texas man and his dog died in his fail-safes. When these Corvette as a result of the same problem. unprotected digital sys- Both vehicles had manual door release tems fail, it will lead to mechanisms as a fallback for when increasingly catastroph- electrics failed, but neither person could find the release. To make matters more ic outcomes. Electrical How do you open a door that is frozen shut—and tragic, one of the victims had the vehicle has no handles? systems are historical- owner’s manual yet was still unable to ly more sensitive and activate the manual release mechanism. These problems will be exacerbated fragile than their analog when cars no longer come with phys- counterparts, meaning ical user manuals or when firmware failures are likely to be- updates change a car so drastically that come harder to assess, the original physical manual is no longer accurate. repair, and recover from.

When Humans Attack Cars

Near-future pessimistic scenario Every year, more than 200,000 people die in a car acci- dent. That’s about one person every three minutes in the United States. Millions more are hospitalized because of car-related injuries. And now there’s a twist: armed with rocks, guns, pocket knives, and in one instance, a PVC pipe, humans have started attacking cars. The reason: big tech companies must adjust their self-driving technology to real-world communities that aren’t interested in being test subjects. Google’s Waymo division, which has been testing vans near Phoenix since 2017, has had several run-ins with locals: they’ve slashed car tires, pelted vehicles with rocks, and tried to run vans off the road. Residents have safety concerns, especially in the wake of a 2018 collision involving a pedestrian and a self-driving Uber car just a few miles away in nearby Tempe. But the real issue here isn’t safety. It’s that we all struggle to cope with technological change, especially when it disrupts the foundations of everyday life.

2ND YEAR ON THE LIST Urban Planning for Multi-Use Roads

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS Strava Metro is using the data from Intelligent load balancing and redis- • Strava Metro As the role of car own- runners and cyclists to help urban plan- tribution of transportation real estate • Open Streets Project ership shifts in society, ners design safer streets. The National could significantly increase the through- • National Association of City public roads will trans- Association of City Transportation put of existing transportation infrastruc- Officials released evolving guidelines ture. Increased quality, quantity, and Transportation Officials form. Streets and side- for street space design and pandemic diversity of traffic data will enable cities walks are increasingly recovery strategies. They include vari- to redistribute how much attention ous street use cases, including protests, and space is designated for car travel becoming mixed-use voting, outdoor dining, and markets. and storage versus use by pedestrians, spaces as a greater Slow streets are designed to limit traffic cyclists, and others. variety of transporta- in certain residential areas. tion methods become popular and prevalent. The pandemic-related need for outdoor dining and commerce has accelerated the

Road design will accommodate more uses than redistribution of street ever before. space away from car travel and parking.

1ST YEAR ON THE LIST China’s Open Road

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS Although we don’t see their vehicles in China is creating a new mobility ecosys- • Apollo Committee China’s ambition to the West, there are more than 70 Chi- tem that includes electric vehicles, apps, • Baidu dominate the global nese car manufacturers, and together communications systems, AI, and data— • Volvo car industry is buoyed they produce more cars than any oth- and it intends to ship its products to the er country. For decades, the Chinese West. Baidu’s Apollo is one example of an • Ford by its manufacturing government has been paving the way open-source self-driving system that could • Geely Group sector, work in AI, and for joint ventures: Many cars in Beijing become an industry standard. Its partners • Dongfeng Motor vast troves of driving with foreign badges were actually made include Daimler, BMW, and Ford. by domestic auto manufacturers. An • Tencent electric vehicle boom is underway, and data. • Great Wall Motors China’s newest cars are full of high-tech gadgetry including wrap-around digital China’s Byton hopes to rival the world’s most dashboards and seats that swivel so pas- prestigious auto manufacturers. sengers can enjoy a meal together when in self-driving mode.

1ST YEAR ON THE LIST New Cityscape Designs

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS Saudi Arabia is developing futuristic With climate change accelerating, these • Bjarke Ingels Group Autonomous vehicles, new megacities. A linear city called The projects are an approach to redesigning • Arquitectonica collaborative drones Line will stretch from the Red Sea to the how we live. We may have little choice, as • Rockwell Group and robots, and AI are mountains of northwest Saudi Arabia sea levels rise and extreme weather events and consolidate urban centers into a force us indoors or even underground. • NEOM CEO Nadhmi Al-Nasr leading to changes 106-mile-long stretch of land. The entire in how cities are city will be arranged along a multilev- The Line is a linear city proposed in Saudi Arabia. el spine, which will include local and designed. high-speed transit, a service layer, and a pedestrian layer. The goal is to preserve the area’s wilderness, encourage mobility, and test renewable energies at scale. The Qiddiya giga-project is a $500 billion bet on a megacity contained within a 130 square mile site outside of Riyadh, the KSA’s capital. If these projects are suc- cessful, they will have advanced technol- ogies and urban ecosystems that rival any major city.