— SPECIAL REPORT — 12/10/2019 SWEDEN FACES THE RUSSIAN THREAT IN THE BALTIC SEA Grzegorz Kuczyński Warsaw Institute SWEDEN FACES THE RUSSIAN THREAT IN THE BALTIC SEA THE SWEDISH 192ND MECHANIZED BATTALION DURING THE NORTHERN WIND 2019 MILITARY EXERCISE. SOURCE: JESPER SUNDSTRÖM/SWEDISH ARMED FORCES y By beefing up its military presence in the exclave of Kaliningrad, flying provoc- ative air patrols and by building next legs of the Nord Stream energy pipeline, Russia undermines the security of other countries in the Baltic region. Also, Moscow could take advantage of the pipeline’s energy infrastructure to take subversive actions in the Baltic. y NATO’s three Baltic members – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – are most vulnerable to Russian military aggression. They all have a resource base in Finland and Sweden, albeit on the other side of the sea. How these non-NATO countries will respond may emerge the key to success for either party’s victory in a possible war between Russia and the military bloc in the Baltic Sea. y Though neither Finland nor Sweden is likely to join NATO in the ensuing years, these two are trying their utmost to bolster their military position in the face of a Russian threat. This will in turn strengthen the combat capabilities of both the Baltic States and Poland, not to mention NATO’s status in the Baltic Sea. y An armed conflict between Russia and Sweden can only break out if Moscow goes to war with NATO member states in the region. Russia would aim to occupy strategically located points in the Baltic Sea and to intimidate mainland Sweden, a scenario taken into account by the Swedish military that focuses on developing its air defense as well as air and naval capabilities. y Sweden is bolstering defense capabilities by expanding its own armed forces and bringing back some of its Cold War-era military solutions, enhancing partnership with neighboring Finland, nurturing military ties with the United States, taking actions to provide regional defense and – last but certainly not least – by boosting its collaboration with the North Atlantic Alliance. 2 Special Report www.warsawinstitute.org SWEDEN FACES THE RUSSIAN THREAT IN THE BALTIC SEA Baltic Sea - NATO vs Russia F N Å I S E R G L D B B S L R G P B N R N S 1 N S 2 A new northern war? What stands as Moscow’s top goal in the Baltic Sea is to safeguard its current influence across In its worst-case scenario, the region. In its worst-case scenario, the the Kremlin sees Kremlin sees non-aligned Finland and/or Sweden joining the NATO military bloc in non-aligned Finland a move that could radically shift the military and/or Sweden joining and political picture in this European region to the detriment of Russia’s interests. High on the NATO military bloc. Moscow’s list of priorities are any actions in the event of a war breaking out between barring Sweden and Finland from being Russia and NATO countries in the Baltic formally invited to NATO. Russia should be region, Sweden and Finland, though formally aware of yet another unfavorable scenario: neutral, would take the side of the Alliance, www.warsawinstitute.org Special Report 3 SWEDEN FACES THE RUSSIAN THREAT IN THE BALTIC SEA KRONSTADT, JULY 28, 2019. RUSSIA’S NAVAL PARADE. SOURCE: KREMLIN.RU also by allowing their use of military facilities, airfields and naval ports. Russia is therefore Moscow’s position in the beefing up its military presence in the Baltic Baltic Sea is far worse than Sea region to neutralize any adverse effects if such a scenario became a reality. Moscow for that in the Black Sea. the past few years has centered its military closing the Danish straits connecting the Baltic activities and plans on both NATO-member Sea to the North Sea; though these are formally states Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, international waters, Denmark is a member of Germany and Denmark as well as Finland and, the military bloc. In the event of a war, Russian more importantly, Sweden, eyeing the last two naval assets in the Baltic Sea will be completely as potential enemies. cut off from the country’s fleet. Moreover, there are also some strategically located islands, all of The geography of the Baltic Sea resembles that which of tremendous significance for shipping of the Black Sea; with its waters cut off from in the Baltic Sea. These are three more plausi- any other bodies of water, the Baltic Sea is for ble obstacles on the route between the North Russia a kind of a strategically important Sea and the Gulf of Finland, which are window to the world. But Moscow’s position in a Danish island, Bornholm, Sweden’s Gotland the Baltic Sea is far worse than that in the and the Åland Islands, all these off the so- Black Sea (read more in our special report uthern direction. The Åland archipelago shuts Mare Nostrum Strategy: Russian Military off access to the Gulf of Bothnia. Neither Activity in the Black Sea). Except for the Sweden nor Finland’s military capabilities are Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, the majority of a threat to Moscow. What counts most is the Baltic’s southern territories belong to the geography, with particular focus on control countries that are part of the North Atlantic over critical points in the Baltic Sea whose Alliance. Furthermore, NATO is capable of preponderant role dates back to Russia’s earlier 4 Special Report www.warsawinstitute.org SWEDEN FACES THE RUSSIAN THREAT IN THE BALTIC SEA country suffers a disaster or an attack. We If Sweden and Finland expect these countries to take similar action if joined NATO in its war Sweden is affected. Sweden must therefore be against Russia, the Alliance able to both give and receive civil and military support,” reads the paper.2 What keeps both the would gain a tremendo- Swedish and Finnish armies away from the war us advantage in the Baltic is, among other things, Russia’s ever-growing military capabilities across the region. Moscow’s Sea, with the region of top goals are to intimidate Stockholm and Kaliningrad isolated from Helsinki and to bar these two from getting the rest of mainland Russia involved in a potential armed conflict. It is worthwhile to note that Russia is enhancing and St. Petersburg blocked. combat capabilities of its Western Military District that covers an area of 25 federal entities, conflicts with Western countries in the region, including those of Moscow and Kaliningrad, including the Crimean War of 1853-1856 or and holds vital importance as the top frontline the Allied intervention in the Russian Civil of the NATO-Russian confrontation. War of 1918-1920. If Sweden and Finland joined NATO in its war against Russia, the Russia has to a large extent Alliance would gain a tremendous advantage intensified its air activities in the Baltic Sea, with the region of Kaliningrad isolated from the rest of main- over the Baltic that land Russia and St. Petersburg blocked. manifested itself in a series Moscow is assuming that both Sweden and of provocations that targe- Finland are highly likely to take sides with ted both NATO-flagged NATO. This is both due to these two’s ever-clo- aircraft and vessels and ser defense-cooperation efforts, also in the area of joint military drills, and their high involve- those of Sweden and ment in EU defense initiatives like Permanent Finland, formally Structured Cooperation, or PESCO. It is worth- while to bear in mind a unilateral declaration of non-aligned. These solidarity issued in 2009 to the EU Member incidents started shortly States as well as Norway and Iceland.1 Nothing before Russia annexed has changed after a decade, as exemplified by the content of the white book Defensive power Crimea in 2014 in a move - Sweden’s Security Policy and the Development that brought new strains of its Military Defence 2021-2025, published in spring this year. „Sweden will not remain between Moscow passive if another EU Member State or a Nordic and the West. [1] https://www.government.se/speeches/2016/02/statement-of-government-policy-in-the-parliamentary-debate-on-foreign-affairs-2016/ [2] https://www.defence24.pl/szwedzka-rewolucja-wojskowa www.warsawinstitute.org Special Report 5 SWEDEN FACES THE RUSSIAN THREAT IN THE BALTIC SEA The district borders four NATO countries that targeted both NATO-flagged aircraft and (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland), as well as vessels and those of Sweden and Finland, Finland, Belarus and Ukraine. Between 2016 formally non-aligned. What is noteworthy is and 2018, more than 70 large units and military that this happened shortly before Russia anne- formations, including two divisions and three xed Crimea in 2014 in a move that brought brigades, were created within its territory. The fresh strains between Moscow and the West. military build-up came at a time of heightened activity of Russia’s air forces in the Baltic region that manifested itself in a series of provocations Forced neutrality In March 2013, the Swedish radars detected six fast planes coming from the east: a pair of In March 2013, Russian air Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers, escorted forces mounted what was by some of Su-27 fighter jets. Before turning back, the Russian military mounted what was later branded by NATO as later branded by NATO as a dummy nuclear a dummy nuclear attack, attack, targeting Swedish military facilities targeting Swedish milita- right off the border. Having no fighter that could be scrambled to intercept the intruder, ry facilities right off the the Sweden Air Forces failed to react to the border.