*-

JENIANG DIVERSION PROJECT SURFACE WATER RESOURCES SURVEY

( MALAYSIA

HYDROPLUVIOMETRICAL DATA PROCESSING FOR S IMULATI OW MODEL

VL 1T.f-l. SZRCUULON Chief of the Technical Dqar@enk Hydrological Semice of ORSTOM

RENARDET ENGINEERING *' GENERAI, MAP WITH LOCATION OF STATIONS

River gauging station

Q Rainfall station

Evaporation station

SCALE

O 10 20 30km -a-

VOLUME I

I. - INTRODUCTION II. - RAINFALL DATA III. - EVAPORATION DATA 3.7. Evapondon un khe pa& di& 3.2. EUapOhdOn an khe dma

IV.- INFLOW DATA INTO THE DAMS 4.7. lndlow cdcLLecrA;ion dah khe pdad 1970 ka 7982 4.2. lndlaw daia ample cav&-LhMLan (pdod 7953 ka 7982)

V.- RUNOFF DATA AT THE STREAMFLOW STATIONS 5. I. AuaieabRe da 5.2. Vh chartg e campR&" and cameotian 5.3. V..bchmgu data ample coMMona2 khe hey-poi& ad ;the waLm ayakm

VI.- DETERMTNATION OF THE DAILY DISCHARGE DATA TIME SERIES FOR THE UPPER RUI 6.7. Genehd mc-thodalogy 6.2. CaLibhdon od .the manthey modat 6.3. TnaMnpaaLZLan .to the RU1 caLchenX 6.4. Co~nkiku;tianod a daiey &chmge d& &&ne A&U

VII.- STATISTICAL STUDY OF YEARLY SAMPLES 7.7. Raindd dctta 7.2. Runadd da 7.3 Recmence ahdy

VOLUME II HYDROPLUVIOMETRICAL DATA ANNEX I. - DAILY EVAPORATIOflS 7.7. ALOR STAR 7974 ka 1982 7.2. BUMBONG UMA 7979 ku 7982 .. ._

-b-

II. - DAILY RAINFALLS - 2.1. RANTAU PANJANG 1953 ka 1982 .. . 2.2. KOTA SARANG SEMUT 1953 ko 7982 2.3. ALOR STAR 1953 ka 7982 2.4. SERIAP 1953 ka 7978 2.5. KOVTANG 7979 ka 7982 2.6. KULIM ffUSPlTAL 1953 ,to 1982 2.7. KRUff VZSPENSARI 1959 ka 1969 (RUI Sutrwey) 2. 8. KLIAN INTAN VISPENSARI 1959 ;to 1969 (RUI Suhwey)

III.- DAILY IIJFLOW INTO AMPANG MUDA 1970 to 1982

IV. - NATURAL DAILY DISCHARGES 4.1. SG. PEVANG TERAP at LENGKUAS 1953 ka 1967 4.2. SG. MUJA ai: SENZANG 7953 ka 1982

* 4.3. SG. MUVA at BATU PEKAKA 1953 ka 7973 4.4. SG. SEVZM at MERBAU PULAS 1953 ka 1972 4.5. SG. KULZM at ARA KUVA 7953 ka 7982

V.- DAILY DISCHARGES AT THE KFY-POINTS OF THE MODEL 5.1. SG. PEVANG TERAP aX LENGKUAS 1953 ka 7967 5.2. SG. MUVA at JENIANG 1953 ko 1982 5.3. SG. MUVA at LVG V'LCTORIA 1953 ka 7982 5.4. AMPANG MUVA 7953 a3 7982 5.5. AMPANG PEVU 1953 ko 1982

VI. - ESTIMTED DAILY DISCHARGES AT RUI DAM 1959 to 1969 -1-

I. - INTRODUCTIQN

Within the framework of the JENIANG Diversion Project, the mission . report [i1 written by the Expert after his stay last March in MA- LAYSIA gives, according to the feasibility study report [23, the ge- neral aim and the main tasks to be realized in order to criticize the available hydropluviometrical data supplied by D.1 .D or MADA and to elabo- rate samples of data time-series at the key-points of the simulation model.

II. - RAINFALL DATA

A previous study [3,4] has shown that amongst the numerous rain- fall stations managed by D.I.D. in the North of MALAYSIA, four rain- gauge stations can be chosen for representing the precipitations fal- ling on the padi areas.

It concerns : - RANTAU PANJANG 5 5040 85 - KOTA SARANG SEMUT 590405 1 - ALOR STAR 6103047 - SERIAP 630 1009

These four stations present for the period 1953 to 1982 (all but SERIAP closed in 1979) a good quality of observations (homogeneous records without change i n the envi ronment or devi ce i nadequati on).

The rainfall data given in Volume 2 (II) correspond to the original values with only slight modifications, as follows :

. RANTAU PA”G - April 56 (200 mm) May 67 (200 mm) August 69 to December 71, data multiplied by (5/6)2

. KOTA smwG SENUT - no modifications -2-

. ALOR STAR - March 64 (100 mm) , April 64 (100 mm) , May 64 (200 mm) ; June 64 (100 mm) , June to December 63, data multiplied by (4/6)2 January to December 55, data multiplied by (6/5)2

. SERIAP - June 54 (200 mm) , October 55 (add 100 mm) September 56 to June 57, data multiplied by (8/6)*

. As this station was closed in May 79, the values of the years 79 to 82 directly correspond to those of the KODIANG station (number 6302021) which is the nearest station in operation receiving roughly the same annual amount of precipitations.

With the extension to the south of the simulation model (PENANG State), three rain-gauge stations have been selected, in a first step, for the KULIM catchment. The KULIM Hospi tal station (5305091) has been retai- ned for the model due to the quality and homogeneity of its records; observed since ,1941, with a gap between 47 and 52, it presents a com- plete period of observations from 53 to 82 (see Volume 2 (II) ). All the daily,monthly and yearly rain values are given in the saw unit (mm).

For KEDAH and PERLIS, the meteorological station of ALOR STAR (KEPALA BATAS Airport) presents a fairly good quality of observations, even during the days of rain. The following Table I gives the monthly mean daily heights for the period 1974 to 1982.

For assessing the evapotranspiration on the padi fields for the pe- riod before 74, the over year monthly mean daily heights obtained in this table are adequate. Nevertheless, it seems that the values of the mid-70s are a little weak. For this reason, it does not appear needful to reduce these values and the evaporation coefficient could be 1. -3-

TABLE I

EVAPORATION at ALOR STAR (KEPALA BATAS) Heights in mm per day

(- :yeaFzy ( Yem:Jan. :Feb. :Mar. :Apr. :May :June:JuZy:Aug. :Sep. :Oct. :Nov. :Dec. : totd ? ----~----;----~----;----~---~--~--~---I---~~-L,-,;--,I----1 i: ) ( 1974: 4.2: 5.1: 5.6: 4.4: 3.5: 2.8: 3.4: 3.5: 3.4: 2.7: 2.7: 3.7: 1 369 ) ( ) ( 1975: 4.3: 4.7: 4.4: 4.6: 3.0: 2.8: 3.6: 3.0: 2.7: 2.4: 2.7: 2.9: 1 243 ) ( 1 ( 1976: 5.2: 5.6: 4.8: 4.6: 3.6: 2.9: 3.2: 3.3: 3.0: 3.1: 2.7: 4.0: 1 402 ) ( 1 ( 1977: 4.6: 5.3: 6.1: 5.3: 4.1: 3.5: 3.2: 3.1: 3.1: 3.7: 3.1: 4.4: 1 505 ) ( ( 1978: 4.9: 6.4: 5.2: 4.7: 3.9: 3.4: 3.1: 3.0: 3.0: 2.9: 3.1: 4.3: 1 452 ) ( .. . ( 1979: 5.6: 5.9: 5.4: 4.4: 3.5: 3.4: 3.5: 3.9: 3.7: 3.8: 3.7: 5.0: 1 577 )

h ( 1 I ( 1980: 6.0: 6.4: 5.3: 4.6: 4.1: 3.4: 4.0: 2.8: 3.3: 3.1: 3.2: 3.7: 1 518 ) ( II ( 1981: 5.1: 5.5: 6.0: 4.2: 3.5: 3.5: 3.6: 3.7: 3.4: 3.8: 3.1: 4.4: 1 511 ) ( ( 1982: 5.8: 6.3: 6.1: 5.0: 4.5: 4.2: 4.0: 3.9: 3.9: 4.2: 3.7: 4.2: 1 686 ) ( ) (Mean: 5.1: 5.7' 5.4: 4.6: 3.7: 3.3' 3.5' 3.4: 3.3: 3.3' 3.1: 4.1: 1474 (

For the south of the water system (KULIM cakhment) , the climatological sta- tion of BUMBONG LIMA (number 5504332) supplies useful data of evaporation. The Table 2 presents monthly mean daily heights for the period 1979 to 1982.

TABLE 2

EVAPORATION at BUMBONG LIMA Heights in mm per day ...... ( - 'Yearly ( Year:Jan. :Feb. :Mar. :Apr. :May :June:JuZy:Aug. :Sep. :Oct. :&v. :Dee. :. total ) l i 1979: 4.8: 5.0: 5.7: 5.1: 4.5: 3.8: 3.9: 4.0: 4.5: 4.4: 4.0: 5.5: 1 674 1 ( 19801 5.1; 4.91 4.9: 4.9: 4.71 3.81 4.6: 3.61 4.4; 3.8; 4.1; 3.7; 1 601 )

( ( 1982: 5.5: 5.7: 5.6: 5.2: 5.1: 4.3: 3.5: 4.2: 3.9: 4.4: 4.2: 4.0: 1 691 1 i (Mean: 5.0: 5.0: 5.4: 5.1: 4.7: 4.1: 4.0: 4.1: 4.4: 4.3: 4.1: 4.5: 1660 1

L ______I______------3 ( , ___ ... . -I

-4-

The over year monthly mean obtained with four years is enough to evaluate the evaporation in 'this area. The daily observations of the stations (ALOR STAR and BUMBONG LIMA) are listed in the Volume 2 (I).

3.2.- Evaponakion--- ...... an ;the PEQU and MUQA Qama

The Tables 3 and 4 provide the monthly mean daily heights of the period of records for the pan evaporometers installed and observed by MADA near the two dams of PEDU and MUDA. The missing data have been completed, and the values are given between brackets, except the year 1977 which is unu- sable.

TABLE 3

EVAPORATION at AMPANG PEDU Heigh in mm per day

("""""-""""""""'-""------'Yearly ) ( Year:Jan. :Feb. :Mar. :Apr. :May :June:JuZy:Aug.:Sep. :Oct. :Nov. :Dec. .: total ( ------______l______l_____------( ( 1971: 7.9: 8.2; 7.7: 7.7: 5.1: 4.7: 4.9: 5.3: 5.4: 4.7: 4.6: 4.8: 2 147 ) ( ( 1972:(7.9):(7.6):(%4): 5.5: 5.6: 4.5: 4.7: 5.1: 40.6: 4.7: 4.2: 5.2: 2 041 ) ( ( 1973: 6.2: 8.2: 7.1: 5.8: 4.9: 4.5: 3.9: 4.3: 4.1: 3.5: 3.5: 3.8: 1 815 ( ( 1974: 6.1: 6.8: 7.2: 5.7: 5.2: 4.4: 4.9: 4.4: 4.5: 4.2: 3.6: 5.2: 1883 ( 1 ( 1975: 5.3: 6.3: 6.0: 5.8: 4.7: 4.1: 4.9: 4.6: 4.1: 3.8: 3.9: 3.7: 1 737 ( ( 1976: 6.7: 7.2: 7.5: 5.9: 4.4: 4.3: 4.3: 4.5: 3.7: 4.3: 3.4: 4.7: 1 851 ( 1 ( 1977: 6.3: 7.3: 8.3: - : - : - : - : - : - : - : - : - : -1 ( ) ( 1978: 6.3: 7.7: 6.8: 6.0: 4.7: 4.4: 4.0: 4.1: 4.1: 4.2: 4.0: 5.6: 1 868 ( ( 1979: 6.9: 7.4: 7.3: 5.6: 4.9: 4.2: 3.9: 4.5: 4.5: 4.9: 4.2: 6.4: 1955 ( ( 1980: 7.4: 7.7: 6.4: 5.8: 4.9: 3.8: 4.2: 3.5: 3.9: 3.5: 3.5: 4.3: 1 793 ) ( ( 1981: 6.6: 7.1: 8.0: 5.2: 4.4: 4.5: 4.2: 4.7: 4.0: 4.2: 3.0: 4.8: 1 840 ( ( 1982: 6.9: >.I: 6.9: 5.4: 4.2: 4.6: 4.3: 4.1: 3.9: 4.1: 4.4: 4.1: 1820 ( ) ( 1 6.7: 7.4: 7.1: 5.9: 4.8: 4.3: 4.4: 4.4: 4.3: 4.2: 3.8: 4.8: 1886 ( Mean: -5-

TABLE 4

EVAPORATION at AKPANG MUDA Heights in mm per day

( ) ( 1974: 6.1: 6.5: 7.4 : 6.2: 4.9: 4.3: 5.5: 4.7: 3.8: 4.2: 3.2: 5.2: 1 881 ) ( 1 ( 1975: 5.4: 6.2: 6.4: 5.9: 5. O: 4.4:'4.9: 5.1: 4.3: 4.4: (3.9): 4.3: 1 820 ) ( .. 1 ( 1976: 7.3: 8.2: 7.5: 6.1: 4.6: 4.4: (4.3): (4.5): (3.7): 4.1: 3.5: 5. O: 1 997 ) (

-0 -0 -* ( 1977: 6.6: 7.0: -: -0 -: -.- * - : -1 ( ( 1978: 6.5: 6.9: 7.3: 7.1 : 5.7: 4.6: 4.8: 4.7: 4.7: 4.5: 4.6: 5.8: 2 038 ) ( ( 1979: 7.4: 7. 6: 7.7: 6.6: 5.5: 5.3: 4.7: 5.5: 5..2: 5.3 : (4.2): 6.3: 2 161 ) ( ( 1980: 6.5: 7.0: 6.9: 6. 7: 5.2: 5.0: 5.4: 4.3: 4.7: 3.9: 4.1: 4.3: 1 952 ) ( ( 1981: 6.2: 6:s: 7.4: 5. O: 4.3: 4.5: 4.5: 5.1: 4.1: 4.2: 3.2: 4.3: 1 806 ) ( ( 1982: 6.3: 6.6: 6. 0: 5.2: 4.8: 4.4: 4.4: 4.5: 4.4: 4.1: 4.2: 3.9: 1 785 ) ( 6.81 7.2; 7.2; 6.2; 5.1; 4.71 4.8; 4.91 4.S; 4.3; 3.8; 4.4; 1 ,952 1

IV.- INFLOW DATA INTO THE DAMS

4.1.1. The daily inf?ows in the reservoir of NUDA has been compu- ted as previously E, 51 from the information given by MADA (daily eva- poration at the dam sites, water level variations in the reservoir of MUDA and PEDU, operating of the SAIONG's tunnel, releases of PEDU Dam and spi?- lages, if any). &. . . , .. .. .

-6-

The programme has used the reservoi rs storage curves al ready establ ished

L4,5] and the following formulae for the SAIONG transfer capacity :

- The two orifices are flooded - Q cusecs = 285,4 HOr5 ('with H ='ALM- WLp) (WLM > 285 and WLp > 280)

- The lower orifice is unflooded - Q cusecs = 285,4 HOt5 (with H = WLM - 280 feet) (WLM > 285 and WLp 4 280)

- The two orifices are unflooded - Q cusecs = K S 4-) - -a (WLM < 285 and MLp < 280 ) - I Q cusecs = Ks S R2/3 i with WLM = water level of MUDA reservoir K = 0,9 , g = 9,782, a = 1,2 , K@ = 3,6 Ks i = 1,007 (S = wetted area, R = hydraulic radius, i =slope)

4.1.2. Results

The daily inflows into the MUDA'S reservoir are listed in the Volume II (3) for the period 1970 to 1982, and the Table 5 gives the values of annual flows in 106 m3. The comparison with the results obtained by MADA (1970 to 1979) has been al- ready discussed [4,57. For the last three years, the differences between MADA and R.E. computation are very weaks especially in 1980 (660.106 m3 for MADA) and 1982 (899.10 63m for MADA) and can be explained by rounded values and simplifications in the data processing.

Uncertainties in the water level reading or lack of accuracy in the reser- voir storage curves explain the fact that some daily inflows are negative. A blank (no runoff) is given on the tables in that case.

The calculation of the PEDU inflows is always difficult due to the lack of accuracy of the reservoir storage curve and the results processed by the programme are not satisfactory at all (too long period of no runoff for instance). As for the last survey, we recommand to compute directly the daily inflows into the PEDU reservoir by the formula W PEDU = W MUDA x O, 17 (surface ratio) for the period 1970 to 1982. -7-

c 4.2.------__-_-----Tn@aw daak mnple...... comaZu$Lon (1953 ko 7968)

The inflows of the MUDA and PEDU reservoirs for the period 1953 to 1968 (the year 1969 is deleted due to the MUDA dam erection) are deduced from the water yields at JENIANG. The percentage to be taken (ratio a = W.Y. MUDA/ W.Y. JENIANG without dam) can be evaluated by several ways :

758.10 63 W.Y. MUDA (1970 - 1982) - m = 0,54 - al = W.Y. JENIANG (1947 - 1968) , 1410.106 m3

W.Y. MUDA ( 1970 1982 ) -a = - = 0,45 (case 2 of Table 5) or W.Y. MUDAtW.Y. JENIANG (1970 - 1982) 0,47 (case 3 of Table 5)

= W.Y. MUDA ( 1977 1982) -a - - 626. lo6 = 0,474 W.Y. MUDA + W.Y. JENIANG (1977 - 1982) 1320. lo6

The ratios a2 and a3 are almost similar. The a3 ratio is particularly interesting (no spi 1 lage during six consecutive years).

Finally, the mean a ratio to be chosen is 0,48, hence for the period 1953 to 1968 : . water yield into MUDA = water yield at JENIANG x 0,48 . water yield into PEDU = water yield at JENIANG x 0,082

The tables of daily inflows are 'given in Volume II (5)

...... FLOU 1 : MUDA ~JE~ENG(1): MUDA Sp!LLages : JEJJIANG only a Ratio year i PLOZJ FLOW i (2) I (3) i (2) i (3) ; (2) i (3) ) (------r------r------~------c------r------3) ( 1970 : 747 : 886 : 7 : 13 : 879 : 873 : 0.46 : 0.46 ) ( 1971 : 728 : 1 164 : 186. .: 392 : 978 : 772 : 0.43 : 0.49 ) ( 1972 : 782 : 1 157 : ' 112 : 232 : 1 045 : 915 : 0.43 : 0.46 ) ( 1973 : 896 : 1 618 : 196 : 403 : 1 422 : 1 215 : 0.39 : 0.42 ) ( 1974 : 653 : 773 : 38 : 82 : 735 : 691 : 0.47 : 0.,49 ) ( 1975 : 757 : 769 : 25 : 50 : 744 : 719 : 0.50 : 0.51 ) ( 1976 : 772. : 1 063 : 9 : I9 : 1 054 : 1 044 : 0.42 : 0.43 )

( 1977 : 558 : 599 : o: O : ~ 599 : 599 : 0.48 : 0.48 ) ( 1978 : 472 : 546' : o: O : 546 : 545 : 0.46 : 0.46 ) : : 587 : 0.47 : 0.47 ) -1 ( 1979 : 529 : 587 : o: O 587 ( 1980 : 650 : 949 : o: O : 949 : 949 : 0.41 : 0.41 ) ( 1981 : 675 : 568, : ' o: O : 568 : 568 : 0.54 : 0.54 ) c- I : ), (...... 1982 : 874 : 915 ' '*: o: O : 915 : 9115 0.49 : 0.49

(1) residual basin + MUDA spillages,-- if .any (2) spillages calculated by MADA 151 (3) spillages calculated with the formula Q cusecs = 897 H1 '60 (WLM > 330 feet) -8-

V..- RUNOFF DATA AT THE STREMLOW STATIOlVS

.. 1 ( 5806414 iSg MUDA at JENIWG :10/46 - 12/82 '1/53 - 12/82 ( :.' ( 5506413 iSg MUDA at BATU PEKAKA 11/47 6/73 1153 - 12/72 1 ( - . ( 5505412 isg MUDA at LDG VICTORIA 47 - 12/82 ttecamkitu;tian . ( i i i ) ( 6204421 Sg PADANG TERAP di LENGKUAS 9/46 - 7/67 1/47 - 7/67 ( i i i 1 550641 6 Sg SEDIM at MERBAU PULAS 1 47 12/72 1/53 12/72 j i - - 1 ) ( 5405421 i Sg KULIM at ARA KUDA 50 - 12/82 1/53 - 12/82 ( 1

D.I.D. has supplied the information that enables to calculate the daily dis- charges at the streamflow stations of the Table 6.

For the data up to 1979, D.I.D. has provided on magnetic tapes the daily stages and the various rating curves,except for the KULIM station. For the period 1980 to 1982, D.I.D. has provided discharge printouts or daily stages and rating curve. {The discharges of 1982 have been calculated with the rating curve used for 1981).

Only'the data after 1953 have been kept for the study. The Volume 2 (IV) gives the tables of natural daily discharges.

5.2.1. LENGKUAS Station

Up to 1956 the missing data are numerous, the calibration of the station for low waters is very inaccurate and the discharges of the years 1962 and 1963 are underestimated. h

-9- L TABLE 7

YEARLY MEAN DISCHARGES (in Cumecs) (Hydrological Records )

( : Stations 1 LENGKUAS : MUDADm .i JENIANG : i. VICTORIA jSEDIM i KULIM 1

1953 38.4 49.1 107. 23.2 (10-2)

1954 23.5 39.2 : 96.4 : 19.5 ( 9.4) ) 1955 35.6 48.1 106. - 21.0 4.97 1 1956 35. o 53.5 : 131- : 21.9 -1 1957 21.1 54.2 : 109. : 17.0 ( 4.3) 1 1958 15.3 38.1 95.7 14.8 5.84 . . ) 1959 23.2 42.3 : 92.2 : 29.4 6.83 ) 1960 21.7 45.3 88.3 '(13.7) 5.47 1961 11.8 32.7 . 79.1 . 95.8 . 22.8 5.90 I.. 1962 20.3 39.5 : 99.2 : 104. : 22.3 8.25 ) 1963 1O'. 7 51.7 104. - 99.1 18.1 6.08 1 1964 12. o 39.9 : 102. . 106. . 22.0 6. 71 ) 1965 25.9 49.8 : 139. : 117. : 28.8 6.10 1 1966 21.7 57.4 . 148. . 122. . 29.9 7.17 ) 1967 28.2 49.6 : 138. : 119. : 24.2 6.88 )

1968 .. 25.1 ' 62.7 64.3 16.4 4.85 1969 23.4 . 97.2 92.8 . 24.1 (5.6) ) 1970 : 23.7 : 28.1 : 70.3 : (99.) : 25.6 (7.7) 1971 23.1 . 36.9 * 65.4 . (90.5) - 22.7 5.67 ) 1972 . 24.8 . 36.7 . 67.9 - . 21.7 6.04 1973 : 28.4 : 51.6 6.39 1974 : 20.7 : 24.5 - 4.27 1975 : 24.0 : 24.6 - 6.01 ) ) 1976 : 24.5 33.7 159. 5.13 1977 : 17.7 : 19. o : 109. 4.91 ) 1978 1 15.0 17.4 ; 94.0 5.99 1 1979 16.8 : 18.5 : 86.3 7.00 .I 1980 1 20.'5 : 30. O ; 119. 9.87 1981 : 21.4 : 18. O : 80.0 7.80 ) 1982 : 27.7 : 29. O ; 102. 8.04 - 10 -

5.2.2. JENLWG Station

There is a lot of missing data between 1953 and 1956, The values of April 59 and April 62 are doubtful. The months of July and August 70 have been reconstituted from BATU PEKAKA and NAM1 (see report 4). The daily values between the 12 of May and the 10 of June 80 have been evaluated from V I CTORI A.

5.2.3. BATU PEKAKA Station The data are adequate but January and February 53. The values of March 53, June 54 and November 54 are doubtful, This station does not appear in the simulation model but its records are useful for the discharge re- consti tution at VICTORIA station.

5.2.4. VICTORIA Station

In spite of the length of record duration, only a few years of observa- tion can be kept directly for the study and that concerns the more recent period (from 1976 to 1982). The addi tion of the two daily mean discharges c- at BATU PEKAKA and SEDIM shows that for the period 1961 to 1969, for ins- tance, there is an underestimation of the discharges at VICTORIA.

5.2.5. SEDIM Station \ Except 1953 and 1954, the observations are of good quality and have been used for the discharge reconstitution at VICTORIA station and for the calibration of the mathematical models used for the RUI study (see chap- ter 6).

5.2.6. ARA KUDA Station This gauging station is the only one on the KULIM catchment. As already told in the mission report [11 the station is unsteady in low flows. The available data cover all the period of study with a few missing months - except in 1956 (eight missing months). A former study undertaken by SMHD has modified the low part of the rating L. - curves given by D.I.D. for the period April 51 to July 58, and July 58 to June 61. The results of the year 1953 seem overestimated.

c _.. -.

- 11 -

The daily discharges are given in Volume 2 (V) and the water yields into the dams have been already studied in chapter IV.

5.3.1. LENGKUAS For the period 1953 to 1966 (PEDU dam in place), the water yields can be estimated by the relation : WD LENGKUAS = observed WD LENGKUAS - observed WD JENIANG x 0.082

This method is not always satisfactory because the correlation coefficient LENGKUAS-JENIANG is low (p = 0,57) for 13 years, without 1963 and 1964). Inother words the PEDANG TERAP catchment and the MUDA catchment are not sys- tematically dry or wet in the same time. For this reason, the tables for 1963 and 1964 present "bRanh or "na. ftunadd" which do not cor- respond exactly to the reality (there is always a runoff, even very low, for such an asea).

For the period 1970 to 1982, there is no records and the attempts for recons- ti tuting the discharges have been done in [41. The oniy way would have been to adopt the methodology exposed in chapter 6 for the evaluation of daily discharges at the site of RUI Dam. But the area of the residual basin of PEDANG TERAP (1100 sq. km approximatively) is so large that it would have requested a lot of supplemental informations. (geology, vegetation, relief, climatological data, maps) and a time of investigation very excessive, without to be sure of the results.

As the purpose of the simulation is to test the water system for different cases of period of return (dry year, wet year, drought during several

years y etc.. .) we suggest to take for the period 1970 to 1982, the years of the period 1953 to 1966 according to the case of period of return

for instance : 1 - wet year (frequency : 0,20) = year 1956 - median year (frequency : 0,50) = year 1960 - dry year (frequency : 0,80) = year 1958 - dry year (frequency : 0,90) = year 1964

++ In case of "b&Hh V&U" the monthly mean values beeing the difference between two discharges does not really correspond to the "pU&¿?%e dhChCULge" given in the tables. This is not important, the simulation model taking the daily values only. k - 12 -

II

As the correlation between MUDA and PEDANG TEMP is very weak,.a randomi- sation is also feasible and the reservoir of values 1953 to 1966 at LENG- KUAS can be used,each year beeing a random variable (in spi te of a 1i ttle autocorrelation).

5.3.2. Site of JENIANG

~ The MUDA Dam is in operation : - Phod 1953 ZU 7968 WD JENIANG = observed WD JENIANG x OY52

- Phod 7970 RO 7982 WD JENIANG = observed WD JENIANG

5.3.3. Site of VICTORIA - The MUDA Dam is in operation : WD VICTORIA = wv

WD BATU PEKAKA = WBp

WD SEDIM = ws

WD JENIANG = WJ

WD MUDA DAM = WM

If we consider that :

WD VICTORIA = WD BATU PEKAKA + WD SEDIM + W,, KARANGAN

thus :

- P&od I953 ZO 7968

9 = ('BP Wj x Oy48) + 1521 Ws

e- (the water yields of the KARANGAN River represent 21 % of the SEDIM water yields). ir - 13 - -L

- ?'&ad 7973 ;to 7975

= WM x 5,44 (WBp = 3,85 WJ and WM = 1,08 WJ) \{V

Wv = observed Wv

6. - DETEMNATION OF THE DAILY DISCHARGE DATA TIME-SERIES FOR THE UPPER RUI

6.7. ------Genehxll mathadakbgy The a m of the task is to elaborate a daily discharge data sample of the

k Upper RUI catchment at the site of the designed dam. There is no hydroplu- r viometrical stations in this mountainous and forestal zone and for this . 3 reason the use of mathematical models with a geographical transposition is necessary.

Three steps are to be undertaken : - Use of a monthly depth of runoff model, based on the water balance principles and taking in inputs monthly rainfall and evaporation values [91. The calibration of this model is carried out on the SEDIM catchment (where streamflow data are available) with the de- termination of the runoff parameters.

- Transposition of these parameters to the RUI catchment and deter- mination of the monthly runoff values by using the data of the nearest rainfall stations and the same model.

- Determination of a daily discharge data time-series by the mean of a discretization model [81 taking into account for the ca- -', libration of this model the results obtained in step 2 and the

P characteristics of the type-hydrograph corresponding to the catch- ment area L1o-J. - 14 -

6.2.1. The general characteristics of the RUI catchment and the SEDIM catchment at MERBfiu PULAS

are roughly the same (soils, geology, slopes and vegetation) but with a more important anthropogenetic influence on the SEDIM. If a cali- bration of the hydrological parameters is possible (comparison between observed values and calculated values of runoff), a transposition will be feasible and significant to the RUI catchment.

The parameters of the NhydrtaRogicaX behdviaunrl are :

- DEFMAX , maximum capacity of the vegetal horizon, expressed in mm of water, the deficit situation of this horizon intervenes for the E.T.A. (actual evapotranspiration). In a forestal zone, according to the results obtained by ORSTOM in AFRICA, DEFMAX-'is high and estimated to 150 mm.

- PERMAX, maximum of soil permeabi 1 i ty, determines the storage quanti- ty of groundwater which will be restitute later to the river (base flow).

- AL, recession coefficient. This parameter gives the emptying velo- city of the water table, with an exponential law H = H o e in days, H isthe height of water table and Ho the initial height.

6.2.2. Slopes ' The SEDIM catchment is divided into two parts, the upper one corresponding to the mountainous side of the G. BINTANG UTAW, with transversal slopes bet- ween 15 and 20 %, the'lower part is in the plain, with slopes of 1 %.The forest occupies a great part of the zone.

6.2.3. Preliminary estimation of parameters - RainQ& The over year mean value in the catchment is about 2 800 mm according' to the isohyetal map [6] but the lack of stations in the h ghest part of the zone i nvol ves certai nly an undereval uati on. rT- - 15 -

t-

Three rainfall stations have been used for the study : - LADANG POKIT KARANGAN (5506082) - LADANG BAGAN SENA (5406081) - LADANG PELAM (550 70 79)

and tables 8 to 10 show the monthly and annual values for the period 1953 to 1977.

The initial Thiessen's coefficient has been of 0,33 for each of them. I - Ewaponation For the SEDIM catchment the open water evaporation is evaluated to 1700 mm (for an average altitude of 200 mm) from the results obtained at AMPANG MUDA. F. SCARF [77 has given an evalutation of the evapo- ration -altitude relationship. For the upper part of the SEDIM (40 % of the area) the open water evaporation is about 1400mm (for an-average --+ al ti tude of 600 m) , for the lower part of the SEDIM (60 % of the total r area) the estimation is of 1900 mm. The E.T.P. (potential evapotranspi- ration) is in the forest of 90 % of this evaporation.

- Hq&o.4?ogicae patrmekm - DEFMAX = 150 mm under a forest cover - PERMAX = 220 mm (pervious catchment) - AL = 0,024 upper basin 0,004 lower basin

6.2.4. Calibration results. Final estimation of parameters - The caeibtLa;tion nuu& are given in table 11 (yearly results only) and are satisfactory. The large coefficient of correlation is of 0,92 for 168 months of values (observed - calculated) .

... - RaLndaXl After calibration, the Thiessen's coefficient are respectively : . 5506082 = 0,29 i - . 5406081 = 0,35 . 5507079 = 0,41 and the over year mean rainfall for the period 1959 to 1977 is about 2 950 mm (the correction is 1,06). -. - 16 - TABLE 8

SED IM CATCHMENT

. 'MONTHLY AND YEARLY RAINFALL RECORDS -STATION : 5506082

YEAR JANU FEBR MARC APRI MAY JUNE JULY AUGU SEPT OCTO NOVE DECE Y.TOT

!1953 -10. -10. 134. 498. 76. 191. 296. 240. 316. 541. 204. 213. 1954 167. 48. 181. 152. 231. 135. 335. 166. 131. 493. 153. 95. 2287. 1955 25. 197. 186. 298. 247. 184. lb8. 271. 224. 302. 366. 127. 2595.

1956 57. 77. 139. 116. 137. 112. 169. 225. 340. 285. 303. 146. 2106. 1957 12'0. 195. 200. 260. 200. 202. 220. 129. 130. 261. 227. 204. 2348. 1958 80. 143. 100. 107. 310. 134. 102. 188. 119. 277. 340. 1. 1'901. 1959 0. 229. 171. 205. 332. 222. 77. 175. 249. 430; 380. 193. 2663. 1960 46. 28. 91. 266. 156. 159; 251. 160. 223. 360. 237. 275. 2252

1961 30. 121. 274. 218. 136. 125. 260. 52. 247. 294. 322. 261. 2340. 1962 141. 12. 196. 158. 318. 210. 173. 244. 134. 561. 222. 97. 2466. 1963 175. 31. 164. 47. 280. 117. 222. 185. 190. 512. 385. 145. 2453. 1964 72. 64. 92. 142. 358. 147. 335. 144. 522. 234. 339. 97. 2546. 1963 34. 87. 189. 236. 140. 24. 183. 392. 413. 438. 529. 323. 2988

:1966 103. 141. 209. 352. 224. 123. 212. 193. 287. 318. 323. 3% 2801 '1967 231. 55. 133. 282. 253. 152. 134. 192. 381. 453. 337. 41. 2644. 1968 63. 22. 139. 306. 120. 80. 286. 278. 133. 346. 147. 257. 2177 1969 129. 69. 87. 78. 267. 178. 78. 225. 128. 525. 296. 163. 2223. 1970 177. 0. 115. 155. 357. 136. 215. 252. 217. 390. 410. 218. 2462.

1971 32. 228. 230. 30. 110. 249. 64. 341. 396. 321. 176. 363. 2540. 1972 35. 89. 126. 253. 127. 128. 96. 131. 326. 476. 519. 139. 2445. 1973 33. 95. 220. 358. 298. 245. 229. 206. 176. 433. 232. 134. 2659. 1974 35. 94. 127. 217. 297. 60. 201. 155. 279. 164. 231. 53. 1913. A975 120. 201. 202. 93. 173. 81. 295. 208. 247. 281. 278. 441. 2620.

1976 O. 76. 129. 254. 258. 192. 216. 187. 304. 509. 328. 58. 2511. ,1977 177. 30. 23. 155. 198. 93. 37. 232. 306. 495. 137. 170. 2053.

MEAN 59-77 (19 YEARS) :2470 MM

MEAN 54-74 (24 YEARS) :2423 MM - 17 - TABLE 9

SEDIM CATCHMENT .

MONTHLY AND YEARLY RAINFALL RECORDS -STATION : 5506081

YEAR JANU FEBR MARC APRI MAY JUNE JULY AUGU SEPT OCTO NOVE DECE Y.TOT

1953 -10. -10. 123. 4V9. 166. 112. 374. 117. 42s. 542. 360. 160. 1954 430. 102. 225. 436. 401. 108. 353. 291. 147. 758. 195. 39. 3485. 1955 23. 251. 152. 474. 329. 137. 325. 382. 356. 397. 273. 147. 3246.

1956 93. 76. 317. 179. 217. 229. 204. 331. 270. 396. 189. 52. 2553. 1957 104. 102. 223. 418. 644. 333. 174. 214. 336. 594. 271. 225. 3368. 1958 110. 90. 123. 218. 537. 187. 169. 259. 263. 379. 423. 1. 2759 1959 1. 221. 207. 158. 214. 415. 101. 321. 354. 623. 293. 168. 3076. 1960 85. 34. 130. 264. 271. 141. 276. 142. 208. 261. 393. 216. 2421

1961 42. 172. 164. 362. 172. 171. 196. 162. 296. 386. 321. 472. 7,916 1962 160. 57. 174. 246. 243. 128. 178. 262. 140. 795. 206. 211. 2800. 1963 198. 68. 151. 142. 228. 113. 184. 155. 233. 297. 539. 294. 2602 1964 162. 71. 107. 391. 310. 258. 562. 204. 607. 254. 254. 128. 3308. 1965 20. 59. 367. 292. 170. 52. 211. 444. 386. 641. 547. 481. 3671.

,1966 148. 96. 276. 284. 384. 396. 383. 259. 393. 548. 390. 342..3879. ,1967 240. 67. 89. 248. 390. 224. 202. 249. 475. 565. 419. 51.. 3219. ,1968 79. 27. 172. 348. 325. 291. 456. 564. 156. 558. 228. 165. 3369. ,1969 348. 108. 254. 144. 555. 299. 107. 251. 137. 711. 355. 272. 3541 .1970 163. 22. 293. 244. 386. 117. 273. 170. 330. 566. 429. 253. 3246

,1971 66..207. 165. 104. 177. 154. 56. 428. 534. 463. 270. 442. 3066 ,1972 58. 165. 102. 523. 158. 228. 135. 156. 354. 435. 519. 138. 2971 .i973 43. 117. 341. 276. 293. 193. 250. 165. 171. 414. 219. 237. 2719. ,1974 45.. 137. 226. 230. 258. 90. 248. 98. 383. 227. 370. 88. 2400. 1975 182. 218. 218. 256. 167. 59. 334. 156. 431. 252. 260. 332. 2865.

1976 O. 39. 243. 205. 218. 110. 162. 57. 276. 353. 293. 28. 1983. 1977 73. 21. 58. 204. 364. 103. 92. 159. 312. 518. 329. 15'1. 2426

MEAN 59-77 (19 YEARS) 2972 MM

MEAN 54-74 (24 YEARS) :3007 MM - 18 - TABLE LO

SEDIM CATCHMENT

MONTHLY AND YEARLY RAINFALL RECORDS -STATION : 5507079

YEAR JANU FEBR MARC APRI MAY JUNE JULY AUGU SEPT OCTO NOVE DECE Y.TOT

1953 111. 64. 90. 353. 117. 112. 242. 193. 260. 454. 212. 111. 2319 1954 178. 64, 147. 234. 279. 110. 364. 192. 221. 545. 165. 97. 2596. 1955 5. 123. 78. 179. 186. 311. 107. 173. 189. 206. 209.

.1956 $1957 958 1959 12. 249. 407. 342. 191. 358. 224. 213. 375. 475. 392. 258. 3496. 1960 77. 88. 147. 266. 217. 133. 275. 172. 242. 233. 243. 246. 2339.

1961 44. 149. 286. 384. 166. 167.' 250. 199. 413. 413. 393. 403. 3267. 1962 58. 80. 234. 296. 321. 274. 201. 228. 169. 593. 196. 210. 2860. 1963 90. 33. 131. 129. 337. 173. 179. 127. 320. 362. 418. 199. 2498. 1964 83. 65. 190. 271. 252. 155. 364. 225. 447. 247. 239. 1-69. 2707 1965 39. 36. 344. 273. 78. 15. 201. 388. 254. 591. 369. 452. 3040.

1966 98. 146. 439. 271. 245. 269. 244. 213. 420. 307. 407. 258. 3405. 1967 202. 31. 38. 406. 375. 223. 135. 193. 283. 451. 284. O. 2621 1968 56. 23. 97. 106. 177. 316. 254. 368. 100. 697. 233. 219. 2646. 1969 207. 162. 234. 183. 385. 240. 155. 308. 131. 585. 426. 88. 3104. 1970 152. 21. 275. 239. 377. 135. 320. 238. 44í. 397. 453. 206. 3254.

1971 26. 206. 167. 197. 145. 98. 80. 571. 441. 397. 143. 446. 2917 1972 34. 197. 59. 403. 68. 151. 96. 255. 336. 446. 545. 115. 2705. 1973 11. 79. 208. 366. 418. 205. 225. 215. 127. 389. 247. 389. 2879. 1974 89. 06. 149. 336. 281. 192. 345. 78. 372. 220. 253. 69. 2470. 197s 268. 214. 302. 228. 228. 121. 283. 127. 353. 356. 266. 574. 3320.

1976 o. 111. 253. 178. 337. 206. 96. 207. 240. 327. 436. 62. 2453 1977 121. 45. 46. 282. 454. 94. 85. 433. 245. 696. 279. 192. 2972

MEAN 59-77 (19 YEARS) :2892 MM 7. - 19 - r

TABLE 11

DEPTH OF RUNOFF CALCULATION

1959 C 1 469 OB 1 392

1960 C 1 061 OB 983

1961 C 1 521 OB 1 636

1962 C 1 564 OB 1 602

1963 C 1 242 OB 1 301

1964 C 1 580 OB 1 577

1965 C 1 904 OB 2 063

1966 C 2 029 OB 2 153

1967 C 1 813 OB 1 734

1968 C 1 582 OB 1 180

1969 C 1 778 OB 1 730

19 70 C 1 736 OB 1 835

1971 C 1 587 OB 1 628

1972 C 1 598 OB 1 562

e = caRcuRaRed dep.th od truno&& 013 = obaetrved dep.th ad hunvdd 20 r. - - TABLE 12 ,

+-

AMPANG RUI

1.. '--,YEAR JANU FEBR MARC APRI MAY JUNE JULY AUCU SEPT OCTO NOVE DECE Y.TOT 1959 O. 169. 287. 114. 379. 161. 118. 152. 239. 376. 306. 164. 2465 I 1960 9. 62. 163. 230. 138. 174. 272. 101. - 218. 109. 477. 133. 2087 11961 100. 160. 128. 187. 116. 156. 109. 89. 151. 310. 204. 138. 1848. O. 88. 232. 195. 211. 70. 160. 150. 113. 387. 168. 287. 2065). íi::: 71. 4. 20. 171. 160. 142. 98. 94. 83. 311. 504. 99. 1759. 11964 15. 57. 28. 265. 385. 269. 408. 109. 301. 454. 486. 135. 2912. 1965 100. O. 117. 226. 200. 103. 153. 131. 265. 503. 216. 94. 2108.

1966 58. 141. 108. 214. 318. 188. 223. 232. 163. 391. 268. 163. 2467. 1967 309. 14. 17. 192. 191. 166. 142. 119. 237. 315. 301. 24. 2027. 1968 59. . o. 102. 128. 237. 272. 119. 123. 152. 293. 45. 91. 1621. 1969 95. 18. 213. 76. 178. 12í. 81. 154. 103. 264. 138. 73. 1514. 1970 68. 52. 27. 118. 140. -99. -94. -99. -99. -99. -99. -99.

t "r

I l

MEAN 59-69 ( 11- YEARS) : 2375.MM

ESTIMATED MEAN (3OY) :2328 MM

I. -* - 21 - TABLE 13 a- t

AMPANG RUI

MONTHLY AND YEARLY RAINFALL RECORDS -STATION : 5710061

,YEAR JANU FEBR MARC APRI MAY JUNE JULY AUGU SEPT OCTO NOVE DECE Y.TOT I 11959 O. 97. 233. 121. 450. 189. 164. 182. 217. 4437. 296. 183. 2619. 11960 37. 18. 100. 226. 233. 151. 176. 141. 167. 125. 237. 69. 1680. I 1961 103. 183. 147. 225. 235. 178. 128. 154. 240. 361. 202. 147. 2303. ,1962 19. 13. 291. 183. 303. 38. 257. 147. 144. 363. 216. 187. 2161. 1963 68. 6. 35. 78. 299. 226. 113. 122. 160. 296. 493. 54. 1950 11964 28. 39. 53. 307. 336. 124. 319. 96. 357. 304. 295. 101. 2359. ,1965 112. 8. 81. 564. 347. 128. 274. 351. 334. 636. 222. 162. 3219.

1966 110. 181. 208. 182. 344. 242. 263. 351. 290. 477. 279. 264. 3191. 1967 460. 46. 7. 319. 306. 254. 80. 226. 269. 315. 294. 24. 2600. 1968 38. 26. 93. 100. 266. 171. 175. 216. 93. 332. 35. 88. 1633. 1969 100. 16. 288. 224. 207. 224. 167. 292. 115. 390. 306. 92. 2411. 1970 64. 43. 38. 94. 246. 124. 135. 268. 217. 302. 316. 266. 2113.

1971 * 30. 312. 183. 55. 167. 187. 178. 102. 223. 247. 117. 173. 1976. u 1972 4. 101. 118. 52. 40. 180. 118. 146. 303. 4.59. 496. -99. -99 1973 1974 86. 83. 31. 183. 312. 17. 363. 81. 75. 206. 183. 96. 1713. L- 1975 87. 145. 134. 196. 211. 100. 264. 230. 238. 370. 239. 275. 2489.

1976 O. 29. 120. 231. 197. 127. 179. 134. 318. 348. 212. 77. 1972. 1977 -99. -99. -99. 75. 207. 121. 79. 154. 278. 453. 48. 16. -99 1978 87. 18. 103. 175. 300. 111. 55. -99. 126. 173. 154. o. -99. 1979 13. 64. -99. 294. 68. 225. 133. 75. 163. 351. 282. -5'5'. *-9?.

MEAN 59-69 (11 YEARS) :2070 MM

ESTIMATED MEAN (30Y) :2037 MM

k

i..

. - 22 -

- Evapo.trakion The values given in 6.2.3 have been kept.

- DEFMAX = 150 mm - PERMAX = 170 mm (pervious) - AL = 0,024 upper basin 0,003 lower basin

The transposition to the RUI catchment seems suitable.

Area = 215 kmz compaci ty i ndex (Gravel 1i us) = 1,17 Hypsometry feet % area 6 O00 - 4 500 O ,O5 4 500 - 2 O00 O ,25 2 O00 - 1 O00 O ,65 < 1000 O ,O5

S 1opes Roche's index Ip = 0,24 Global index IG = 53 m.km-

6.3.2. Rainfall - The AohqW map gives an over year mean value of about 85 inches. As the G. BINTANG UTARA involves an underestimation, we have taken the some corrections that for the SEDIM, i. e = - --PRUI = 85 inches x 1,06 # 2 280 mm

- Available da& - . The rain-gauge station KLIAN INTAN DISPENSARY (5610062) -see Table 12- is the nearest station of the upper RUI and has been continuously ob- served from 1959 to 1969. . The rain-gauge station KROH DISPENSARY (5710061) can also be chosen; observed since 1959 it presents some gaps in the readings (Table 13). - 23 -

- Tntmannuat mean ukima;tion The following Table enables to compare the statistical samples (mean 6 and standard deviation s ) obtained on various stations already used and for various periods of observations . TABLE 14

( - 1 ( 5506082 : p 2 423 2 470 2 504 .s 2 72 2 63 254 ( - ( 5406081 : p 3 007 2 972 3 163 ( *s 4 74 483 4 52 1 ( ( 1 ( 55050 79 :P - 2 892 2 907 ) 349 3 82

) S - 524 1

It may be noted that mean and standard deviation are very close for the lon- gest periods, but there is a small increase of the mean for the shortest period (eleven years). For this reason, the interannual mean value of the two stations is given respectively by :

P 5610062 = 2 078/1.02 = 2 037 mm P 5710061 = 2 375/1.02 = 2 328 mm

- Avmage haindcLee on khe RU7 Cakchent The distance between KROH and KLIM INTAN stations are enough for having a good statistical representation of the average rainfall on the catchment. The discharges will be generated for the period 1959 to 1969 (eleven years). .. ._._I ..

- 24 -

The ponderation coefficients have been taken weight for weight and calcu- lated to obtain the'equation :

COEF 1 x 2 037 f COEF 2 x 2 328 2 280 mm

i. e = station 5610062 = 0,525 station 5710061 = 0,520

6.3.3. Evaporation

The evaporation (open water) is estimated at about 1 450 mm for an average altitude of about 500 m .-see F. SCARF- It gives a potential evapotranspiration (E.T.P.) in a forestal environ- ment of 0,9 x 1450 = 1 305 mm.

6.3.4. Hydrological parameters

- DEFMAX = 150 mm (value already taken for the SEDIM catchment and typical of a forestal envi- ronment). - PERMAX = 170 mm (value retained for the SEDIM catchment and corresponding to a pervious ground). - AL = 0,015 (value estimated from the slope index with the algorithm AL = 0,056 x Ip and ta- king into account the results obtained for the SEDIM).

6.3.5. Results The monthly rainfall totals for the KROH and KLIAN INTAN stations are given in Tables 12 and 13, and the monthly runoff evaluations on the RUI for the period 1959 to 1969 are listed on Table 15 (read the LO values). The yearly mean runoff of this period is 1162mm with a standard deviation of 350 mm. If we consider that the rains during this period are a little in excess, we can estimated that the interannual mean on a longer periode is about 1100mm. This value of depth of runoff is that given by the surface water resource map published by D. I.D. [67. -- - 25 -

ri TABLE 15

RUI CATCHMENT

Fitting of the daily scale model on the calculated monthly depth o€ runoff

Year ;Jan. ;Feb. :Mar. :Ap. i May :June :Jul. ;Aug. 'Sep. 'Oct. :Nov. 'Dec. :Year :totäZ 1

( 1959 LO 45; 13: 21 34: 189; 98: 78: 72 : 97: 273: 214: 135: 1 269 ( LC 47: 29: 52 31: 209: 99: 78: 73 116: 224: 237: 169: 1 364 ( : : I 1960 LO i 88: 55: 35 : 35: 59: 67: 87: 75 : 76: 69: 194: 92: 932 ( LC : 81: 50: 36 27: 93: 64: 104: 58 : 85: 46: 177: 87: 908 ) 1961 LO 51: 37: 35 41: 59: 67: 59: 45 59: 168: 129: 98: 848 ( : : : LC 55: 32: 48 31: 101: 52: 33: 38 66: 173: 134: 84: 847 ( : : : j ( 1962 LO 62: 39: 30 53: 98: 70: 64: 66 58: 192: 124: 126: 982 ) ) ( LC : 47: 29: 45 : 36: 144: 40. 57: 63 58: 177: 125: 165: 986 ( ( 1963 LO : 89: 52: 33 : 22: 33: 59: 53: 35 32: 117: 342: 111: 978 ) ( LC : 67: 39: 29 : 20: 51: 69: 53: 23 : 30: 118: 296: 126: 921 ( ( 1964 LO 57: 36: 23 : 34: 163: 111: 2051111 : 172: 251: 296: 140: 1 599 1 ( LC : 66: 41: 30 : 38: 173: 126: 180: 98 : 173: 235: 288: 144: 1 592 ) ( ( 1965 LO : 86: 50: 32 : 116: 128: 92: 90: 115 : 168: 432: 188: 124: 1 621 ( LC : 83: 51: 39 : 125: 169: 78: 106: 129 : 164: 326: 197: 160: 1 627 ( 1 ( i966 Lo 801 49; 43 1 48; 144; 1171 1281266 148; 305; 214; 157; i 599 ( ) LC 1 53: 53 : 46: 158: 151: 113:194 : 124: 272: 211: 185: 1 641 ( 81: ) ( ) ( 1967 LO : 229: 123: 73 : 54: 99: 108: 84: 70 : 110: 180: 202: 109: 1 441 ) ( LC : 191: 75: 56 : 44: 114: 101: 72: 62 : 111: 179: 179: 96: 1 280 ) ( ( 1968 LO : 65: 41: 27': 17: 41: 78: 72: 69 : 62: 143: 79: 45: 739 ( LC : 58: 36: 26 : 17: 46: 71: 62: 82 : 44: 152: 52: 36: 682 ( . ,. 1 i 1969 LO 1 28; 17; 15 34: 491 64; 58: 75 661 153; 134; 89; 782 )1 LC : 23: 14: 18 : 43: 53: 63: 57: 82 : 40: 164: 126: 88: 771 ( - 26 -

- -I--__ __ For this last step the model of spatial discretization (daily scale) has been used [81. Various parameters have been calibrated with the monthly depth of runoff values obtained previously and with the some precipitation and evapora- tion. It is however difficult to obtain exactly the same results, the rou- ting of each programme beeing slightly different. The daily discharge determination needs the knowledge of the base time duration of the runoff flood. A such value is supplied by the Rodier's abacus on forestal catchments [io] and is about 0,75 day. The Table 15 allows to compare the monthly depth of runoff LC calculated by this daily programme, calibrated on the monthly depth of runoff LO com- puted in 6.3.

The daily discharges computed at the RUI Dam site are given by the Volu- me 2 (VI). Obviously, the accuracy of these discharges on a daily basis is a little illusive. If we may hope to reconstitute the general shape of the dischar- ge population (In .preference over a period of several days), it could be dangerous to undertake statistical studies on the extreme values.

VITI.- STATISTICAL STUDY OF YEARLY SAMPLES

The statistical study undertaken in the repórt [4] has been updated. The printoutsof computer,given in the following sheets,present the sta- tistical results for nine laws usually employed in hydrology.

The first gives : - observed values in order of event, - plotting of the N observed values ranked by order of event, - observed mean, median and mode, - variance, standard deviation (calculated with M- 7 ), - coefficient of variation, - skewness and kurtosis coefficients. The second gives : - the fitting to the 9 distributions computed by maximum of likelyhood method (the parameters are chosen positives and the limit of the lowest value is O). - the 9 laws : GAUSS Normal dis tri buti on , GUMB Gumbel distri bution, GALT Log normal distribution, PEAR Type 3, incomplete gamma in X, PEAV Type 5, incomplete gamma in 1/X, GOOD Goodri ch di s tri bution , FREC Frechet di s tri bution, LGAM WRC - USA dis tri buti on, 1og-gamma fi rs t , FUIT Cox and Miller distribution (law of ttRabtt) - For all these laws, are given the parameters already cited and the para- meters of shape (variance calculated with N) , the value of a fitting - test (theoretically, the lowest value correspond to the best test) and values of yearly mean discharges for various probabil i ties.

The following Table resumes the results obtained with the GOODRICH distri- bution (values in mm)

TABLE 16

( 1 ( O. O1 (100 years dry) : 1 576 .: 1 522 : 2 083 : 1 790 : 2 081 ) ( 0.02 (50 years dry) : 1589 : 1 629 :. 2 102 1 820 i 2 138 ( ,. I ( 0.10 (10 years dry) : 1 660 : 1 908 : 2 188 : 1 940 : 2 341 ) 0.50 ( median ) 1 928 1 2 300 2 446 2 234 2 764 i : : : ) ( 0.90 (10 years wet) : 2 387 : 2 599 : 2 815 : 2 594 : 3 213 ) c ,. ( 0.98 (50 years wet) : 2 740 : 2 746 : 3 071 : 2 822 : 3 477 (

I-l- ( 0.99 (100 years wet) : 2 876 : 2 792 : 3 116 : 2 903 : 3 568 ) ( ...... c

."+

- 28 -

&+

7.2.- Runodd---- -_---daka

The PEARSON type 3 distribution gives the following results

TABLE 17

( 0.02' (50 years dry) 1 29 . 915 : 4.3 *. 135.6. ) ( 0.10 (10 years dry) 34 : 1 072 : 4.8 : 151.4 ) ( 0.50 ( median ) : 45.7 . 1 441 : 6.2 : 195.5 (

( 1) The c&ed!a.ted v&a nem Zoo &ow

'f. 3. - Remence------nkudy

As already told in the report 147,it is to be pointed out that even with thirty years of records, the drawing of the general trends of cli- mate variation is uncertain in the area concerned by the simulation model. It seldom exists a close relationship between flow and rainfall recurren- cies for several reasons : - the yearly total amount of rainfall does not take into account the month- ly variations of precipitations (a year can be bad for the agriculture - no adequacy between rain and needs of cul ture - and satisfactory for the

Li hydrological point of view - concentration of rains on several consecu- tive months) ,

P- - the precipitations in the upper basins of PADANG TERAP and MUDA Rivers can greatly differ from those of the coastal plain (padi area), --, - 29 - t-

- the base flow which represents an important part of the total flow, and the groundwater recession are linked with the storage of the groundwater body.

The Table 18 which supplies, for the most "iu,te,tankivlg ya"' annual values and period of return at the five rainfall stations and the two s,treamflow stations shows this phenomenon.

For instance at JENIANG, the driest years of the period (61, 68, 78) or the wettest years (72, 73, 76) dont correspond systematically to an acute drought or a severe "w~nanaffon the padi area (61 is in fact a . rainy year).

A spatial heterogeneity is often observed between the northern stations (SERIAP and ALOR STAR) and the southern stations (KOTA SARANG SEMUT and RANTAU PANJANG) , see for ins tance the years 72, 77, 78 - on the other hand the "behauii0~t" of KULIM Hospital is different and often in accordance with the stations of the north. c - If we consider the operating of the watzr system, it is difficult to express a global period of return for each considered yeár. In term of deficit,- a 10 % deficit of rain.. on the padi area can ben worse than a

. 10 % deficit of flow at a yearly scale.

In spite of the above considerations, an attempt has been made to define , several periods of return.

Three cases can occur :

a) - Isolated year and "opposite values" year 1961 - The rainfall is in excess and the flow in deficit year 1963 - The rainfall is. in deficit and the flow in excess

for that case the recurrence .is near the mean

b) - Isolated year and "conjdined values" ~.?i ~ The rainfall and flow are in deficit or in excess in the same time. -- ..i - 30 -

i , TABLE 18

: KULIM at ) Station : MUDA at 6301009 6203047 5904051 5504085 : JENIANG i i i i i 5305091 .: ~ KUDA ) ( Year i m3/s i "n: m ..." ." '.." i m3/s

) 1958 : 38.1 : 1 785 1 870 : 2 371 : 2 347 2 396 : 5.84 ) : D5 : D4 D 14 : 03 : w3 07 : 03 )

0, ) 1961 : 32.7 : 2 005 2 571 : 2 809 : 2 587 2 910 : 5.90 ) : D 14 : w3 w8 : w 10 : w 70 w3 :'O3 ) 1 1963 : 51.7 : 1 679 2 047 : 2 110 : 2 078 2 681 : 6.08 ) : w3 : D9 O5 : D 30 : 04 O3 M) 4.85 1 1968 a 25.1 . 1 778 1 975 2 376 : 2 310 2 901 i D 50 i D4 DD8 : 03 : w3 w3 : D10 1 1971 54.1 1 750 2 454 : 2 800 2 356 2 772 5.67 1 i w5 i D4 w5 : w9 : w4 M i D4 ; .' 1 1972 ' 58.0 2 537 2 717 - 2 200 * 1 862 3 O09 ' 6.53 i w 70 i w 20 w 33, i.. Db i D 25 w 5 i w3 1) 1973 - 73.5 ' 1 813 2 577 * 2 856 2 388 3 492 : 6.39 : W 50 i 03 Wld : w 20 : -w 4 W 30 :' w3 ) 1 1974 : 43.9 : 1 570 2 121 : 2 185 : 1 898 2 369 ,: 4.27 ) : 03 : D 50 '2) 4, : D 10 : D 20 v 10 : i950 1 1976 : 57.9 : 1 990 2 O90 : 2 723 : 2 192 2 818 : 5.13 )

: w 70 : w3 04 5: W6 :M M : D6 ) .' .' 1 1977 : 36.7 : 1 814 2 119 : 2 760 : 2 345 2 461 : 4.91 ) : 07 : v3 O4 : w7 : w 3 1?5 : Db ) 1 1978 : 32.3 : 1 713 2 190 : 2 747 : 2 541 2 351 : 5.99 ) : v 15 : O6 O3 : wjr : Wb D 50 : 03') 1979 35.4 1 753 1 785 ' 2 104 2 274 2 432 : 7.00 '1 Db i D4 20 : D 30 'M 216 i w4 D 1' 1980 : 50.5 : 1 882 2 570 : 2 464 : 2 690 3 038 : w3 : D3 w9 :M : w 20 w5

1981 : 39.4 : 1 605 : 1 677 : vesy dry : 1 888 -. 2 184 : 04 : D 33 : D40 : D50 : V20 2: 30

0.

D 5 = 5 ywdttyhctuhn p&ad M = median W 20 = 20 ywweL h&utn p&od - 31 -

b.1 drought

10 years return period = years 1958 and 1968

15-20 years return period = year 1974

b. 2 wetness

10 years return period = year 1980

20 years return period = year 1973 cl- Several years running The succession of several dry or rainy years can affect deeply the water system management.

c.1 drought The return period of the years 77 to 79 can be estimated to 50 years. (For the period 1947- 1982 at JENIANG with a mean of

! 46 ,I4 cumecs , and a standard deviation of 9,71 cumecs , the stan- dard deviation of the mean is 46,4/ 4-% = 1,64. For the period 1977- 1979, the mean is of 34,8 cumecs and the standard devia- tion for three years is 9,71/ m = 5,61. The mean 1977 - 79 presents on the mean 1947- 1982 a deviation of 11,6 or 2,07 standard deviation, the probability given by a GAUSS table is about 50 years).

c.2 wetness The return period of the years 71 to 73 can be estimated to 50 years. The statistical calculation gives a return period still more important, but it exists for this period a certain autocorrel ation. - - 32 -

-REFERENCES-

JENIANG DIVERSION PROJECT - Surface water resources survey Mission report by J. SIRCOUMN. - March 1983.

Feasibility study for proposed JENIANG DIVERSION, NAOK reservoir and transfer canal. - SYED MUHAMMAD, Hooi DAN BINNIE SDN. BHD - April 1982.

KEDAH-PERLIS water resources management study by YUSOFF IBRAHIM SEHU and RENARDET-ENGINEERING.

KEDAH-PERLIS water resources management study. Hydropluviometrical data processing for s'imulation model by J. SIRCOULON - May 1979 (in French).

KEDAH-PERLIS water resources management study. Additional hydropluviometrical data (years 1978 and 1979) . Statistical study and recommandations by J. SIRCOULON -April 1980 (in French).

Average annual surface water resources of Peninsular MALAYSIA - 1976 - [WRP NO6 by D.I.D. 1

Evaporation in Peninsular MALAYSIA by SCAR??. 1976 [WRP NO5 by D.I.Da .

Modèle précipitations-débits à discrétisation spatiale by GIRARD G., MORIN G. and CHARBONNEAU R., in Cahiers ORSTOM, série HYDROLOGIE, volume IX, 4- 72.

Un modèle sirqlifié de calcul des écoulements mensuels par ... bilan hydrique - by IBIZA D. in Cahiers ORSTOM, série HYDROLOGIE, volume XX,1- 83

Estimation des débits de crues décennales pour les petits bassins forestiers en AFRIQUE,Tropicale - by RODIER J.A. in ORSTÔM Publications. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF YEARLY TOTAL RAINFALL KULIM HOSPITAL STATION ( 5305091 ) 1953-1982 OBSERVED VALUES IN ORDER OF EVENT

ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE, ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE 53 2885.000 54 2793.000 55 3097.000 56 3034.000 57 2659.000 58 2396.000 59 2715.000 60 2560.000 61 29 1 O. O00 62 2614.000 63 2681.000 64 2848.000 65 2753.000 66 2695.000 67 2661.000 68 2901.000 69 2847.000 70 3610.000 71 2772.000 72 3009.000 73 3492.000 74 2369.000 75 3176.000 76 2818.000 77 2461.000 78 2061.000 79 2432.000 80 3038.000 81 2 184.000 82 2783.000

PLOTTING OF THE, 30 OBSERVED VALUES RANKED BY ORDER .OF EVENT PROBABILITY = (RANK-.5)/SIZE OF SAMPLE,

RANK ORDER PROBABILITY VALUE RECURRENCE VALUE PROBABILITY RANK ORDER 1 78 0.0167 206 1 .O00 60.000 36 1-0.000 O. 9833 30 70 2 81 O. 0500 2184.000 20.000 3492.000 O. 9500 29 73 3 74 O. 0833 2369.000 12.000 3176.000 0.9167 28 75 4 58 O. 1167 2396.000 8.571 3097.000 O. 8833 27 55 5 79 O. 1500 2432.000 6.667 3038.000 O. 8500 26 80 I O00 6 77 O. 1833 246 1 . 5.455 3034.000 0.8167 25 56 W 7 60 0.2167 2560.000 4.615 3009.000 O. 7833 24 72 w 8 '62 O. 2500 2614.000 4.000 2910.000 0.7500 23 61 9 57 O. 2833 2659.000 3.529 2901 .O00 0.7167 22 68 I 10 67 0.3167 2661 .O00 3.158 2885 .O00 O. 6833 21 53 1 11 63 O. 3500 268.1 .O00 2.857 2848.000 O. 6500 20 64 12 66 O. 3833 2695.000 2.. 609 2847.000 O ..6167. 19 69 13 59. 0.4167 2715.000 2.400 2818.000 0.5833 18' 76 14 .65 O. 4500 2753.000 2.222 2793.000 O. 5500 . 17 54 15 71 O. 4833 2772,.O00 2.069 2783 .O00 O. 5 167 16 82

OBSERVED MEAN 2775. OBSERVED MEDIAN 2777. PROBABLE MODE 2724. VARIANCE . 11 1307. . ST-DEVIATION 333.6 .VAR IAT ION 0.120 ST. DEVIATION/MEAN SKEWNESS COEFF 0.319 THIRD CUMULANT/VARIANCE**1.5 KURTOSIS COEFF 0.731 FOURTH CUMULANT/VARIANCE**2. i T' Fa TI T1 5 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF YEARLY TOTAL RAINFALL KULIM HOSPITAL STATION ( 5305091 ) 1953-1982 FITTING TO THE 9 DISTRIBUTIONS COMPUTED BY MAXIMUM OF LIKELIHOOD METHOD THE PARAMETERS ARE CHOSEN POSITIVES THE LIMIT OF.THE LOWEST POSSIBLE VALUE IS 0.0 GAUSS NORMAL DISTRIBUTION GWMB GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION GALT LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION PEAR PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 3 ,INCOMPLETE GAMMA,IN X PEAV PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 5 ,INCOMPLETE GAMMA,IN 1/X GOOD GOODRICH DISTRIBUTION GENERALIZED EXP0,IN X**A FREC FRECHET DISTRIBUTION.GENERALIZED EXPO.IN 1/X**A LGAM WRC-USA DISTRIBUTION,LOG-GAMMA FIRST FUIT COX AND MILLER DISTRIBUTION .

I DISTRIBUTION GAUS GUMB . GALT PEAR PEAV GOOD FREC LGAM FUIT PARAMETERS OF SCALE 328.02 313.80 2755.81 38.69 194105.94 1016.71 2594.38 253.51 19.82 OF POSITION 2775.13 2614.51 0.0 0.0 0.0 1865.48 0.0 253.51 0.0 OF SHAPE FIRST *********** *********** o. 12 71.73 70.93 0.34 -0.12 400.00 140. OO. OF SHAPE SECOND *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********Y* 0.01 *********** LOWER LIMIT ******'***** **Y******** 0.0 10.0 0.0 . 1865.48 0.0 253.51 0.0 UP.PER LIMIT , ******Y**** *,********** *********** e********** *********** *********** *********** *********** ***********

MEAN 277-5.13 . 2795.64 2775.41 2775.13 2775.53 2772.88 2823.98 3029.05 2775.13 I MEDIAN 2775.13 2729.52 2755.81 2762.24 2749.3 1 2763.85 2714.69 2750.33 2765.21 MODE 2775.13 2614.51 2717.01 2736.44 e 2698.36 2750.16 2557.23 2701 .O2 2745.34

VARIANCE ' . 107596.62 161977.81 109992.56 107361 .O6 54685 - 68 1 11305.50 249662.3 1 11 1778.56 110019.25 ' COEF VARIATION o. 12 O. 14 o. 12 o. 12 0.08 o. 12 O. 18 0.11 o. 12 COEF SKEWNESS 0.0 1.14 0.36 0.24 0.49 O. 18 2.17 0.48 O. 18 COEF KURTOS IS 0.0 . 2.40 0.23 . 0.08 0.45 -0.27 10:96 0.06 0.04

VALUE OF TEST 4.07 , 8.39 3.59 3.48 3.98 4.74 13.25 3.91 3.56 FREQ. . 0.35 0.05 0.43 O. 46 0.37 . 0.26 ' 0.01 0.38 0.44

PROBABILITY RECURRENCE 0.0100 .1000E+03 2012. 2135. 2089. 2070. 21 10. 2081. 2148. 2106. 2048. o. 0200 .5000E+02 2101. 2186. 2158. 2144. 2174. 2138. 2192. 2171. 2126. O. 0300 .3333E+02 2158. 2221. 2203. 2192. 2216. 2178. 2221. 2213. 2177. O. 0400 .2500E+02 2201. 2248. 2237. 2229. 2248. 2211. 2245. 2246. 2215. O. 0500 .2000E+02 2236. 2270. 2266. 2259. 2275. 2238. 2265. 2273. 2247.

o. 1000 .1000E+02 2355.' . . 2353. 2366. 2364. 2369. 2341. 2340. 2368. 2357. o. 2000 .5000E+01 2499. 2465. 2493. 2496. 2491. 2478. 2446. 2491. 2493. O. 5000 .2000E +O 1 2775. 2730. 2756. . 2762. 2749. 2764. 2715. 2750. 2765 - O. 8000 .5000E+O 1 3051. 3085. 3046. 3046. 3044. 3059. 3123. 3045. 3051 - o. 9000 .1000E+02 3196. 3321. 3210. 3202. 3215. 3213. 3427. 3215. 3206. O. 9500 .2000E+02 3315. 3547. 3352. 3335. 3366. 3338. 3746. 3365. 3337. O. 9600 .2500E+02 3349. 3618. 3395. 3375. 341 1. 3374. 3853. 3410. 3376. O. 9700 .3333E+02 3392. 3710. 3448. 3423. 3469. 3419. 3995. 3466. 3424. O. 9800 .5000E+02 3449. 3839. '3519. 3489. 3547. 3477. . 4204. 3543. 3488. o. 9900 .1000E+03 . 3538. , 4058. 3635. 3594. 3675. 3568. 4583. 3669. 3590. Tr F3 . T, T-.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF YEARLY TOTAL RAINFALL RANTAU PANJANG STATION ( 5504085 ) 1953-1982 OBSERVED VALUES IN ORDER OF EVENT

ORDER VALUE OkDER VALLE ORDER VALUE ORDE2 VALUE

53 2293.000 . 54 2417.000. 55 1939.000 56 2 130.000 57 2281.00c7 58 2347.000 59 1909.000 60 2440.000 61 2587.000 62 1839.000 63 2078.000 64 2795.000 65 2421.000 66 2451.000 67 1997.000 68 23 1O. O00 69 1967.000 70 2458.000 71 2356.000 72 1862.000 73 2388.000 74 1898.000 75 2422.000 76 2 192.000 77 2345.000 78 2541.000 79 2274.000 80 2690.000 81 1888.000 82 2103.000

PLOTTING OF THE 30 OBSERVED VALUES RANKED BY ORDER OF EVENT PROBABILITY = (RANK-.5)/SIZE OF SAMPLE ,

RANK ORDER PROBABILITY VALUE . RECURRENCE VALUE PROBABILITY RANK ORDER 1 62 0.0167 1839.000 60.000 279’5.000. O. 9833 30 64 2 72 0.0500 1862.000 20.000 2690.000 O. 9500 29 80 3 81 O. 0833 f888.000 12.000 2587.000 0.9167 28 61 4 74 0.1167 1898.000 ’ 8.571 2541 .O00 0.8833 27 78 5 59 0.1500 1909.000 6.667 2458.000 O. 8500 26 70 I 6 55 0.1833 1939.000 5.455 2451 .O00 0.8167 25 66 cj 7 69 0.2167 1967.000 4.615 2440.000 O. 7833 24 60 ul 8 67 0.2500 1997.000 4.000 2422.000 O. 7500 23 75 ‘9 63 0.2833 2078.000 3.529 2421 .O00 0.7167 22 65 I 10 82 0.3167 2103.000 3.158 . 2417.000 0.6833 21 54 ..

\ 11 56 0.3500 2130.000 2.857 2388 .O00 O. 6500 20 73 12 76 0.3833 2192.000 2.609 2356.000 0.6167 19 71 13 79 0.4167 2274.000 2.400 2347 .O00 O - 5833 18 58 14 57 0.4500 228 1 .O00 2.222 2345.000 O. 5500 17 77 I 15 53 0.4833 2293.000 2.069 2310.000 0.5167 16 68

OBSERVED MEAN 2254. OBSERVED MEDIAN 2301. PROBABLE MODE 2256. VARIANCE . 67288. ,ST.DEVI4TION 259.4 VAR IAT ION 0.115 ST. DEVIATION/MEAN SKEWNESS COEFF -0.013 THIRD CUMULANT/VARIANCE**1.5 KURTOSIS COEFF -1.020 FOURTH CUMULANT/VARIANCE**2. q Jr 1, 1,

STLTISTICA. AWL15..S OF YEARLY TOÏAL RAIhFALL RANTAJ PANJLNO STATION ( 5504085 ) 1953-1982 FITTING TO THE 9 DISTRIBUTIONS COMPUTED BY MAXIMUM OF LIKELIHOOD METHOD THE PARAMETERS ARE CHOSEN POSITIVES THE LIMIT OF THE LOWEST POSSIBLE VALUE.IS 0.0

GAUSS NORMAL DISTRIBUTION GUMB GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION GALT LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION PEAR PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 3 ,INCOMPLETE GAMMA,IN X PEAV PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 5 ,INCOMPL'ETE GAMMA,IN 1/X GOOD GOODRICH DIS,TRIBUTION GENERALIZED EXPO.IN X**A FREC FRECHET DISTRIBUTION,GENERALIZED EXPO, IN 1/X**A LGAM WRC-USA DISTRIBUTION.LOG-GAMMA FIRST FUIT COX AND MILLER DISTRIBUTION

DISTRIBUTION GAUS GUMB 8 GALT PEAR PEAV GOOD FREC LGAM FUIT PARAMETERS OF SCALE 255.04 234.46 2239.34 29.20. 169198.31 620.98 21 12.83 223.92 16.10 OF POSITION 2253.93 2126.37 0.0 0.0 0.0 1704.19 0.0 223.- 92 0.0 OF SHAPE FIRST *********** *********** 0.11 77.19 76.06 0.43 -0.11 400.00 ***********140.00 ' OF SHAPE SECOND *********** *********** *********** **********; *********;* **********; e********** 0.01 LOWER LIMIT *********** *********** 0.0 0.0 0.0 1704.19 0.0 223.92 0.0 UPPER LIMIT *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** e********** *********** ' .

MEAN 2253.93 2261 -71. 2254.19. 2253.93 2254.27 2254.39 2273.00 2478.19 2253.93 I ' MEDIAN 2253.93 2212.30 2239.34 ' 2244.20 2234.42 2234.47 2198.76 2235.05 2245.87 MODE 2253.93 2126.37 2209.95 2224.73 2195.76 2191.31 2089.23 2197.41 2229.74 % VAR IANCE 65045.36 . 90423.81 67581 -62 65815 .O0 33628.73 63309.27 1'2 1279.06 68603.62 72574.19 ' COEF VARIATI~N o. 11' O. 13 0.812 0.11 0.08 0.11 O. 15 0.11 o. 12 COEF SKEWNESS o :o 1.. 14 0.35 0.23 0.47 0.44 2.00 0.47 O. 18 COEF KURTBS IS 0.0 2.40 0.22 0.08 0.42 -0.05 8.94 -0.05 0.04

VALUE OF TEST 4.62 8.09 5.33 5.02 5.73 5.34 9.91 5.67 5.14 FREQ. 0.27 . 0.06 0.20 O. 23 O. 16 o. 19 0.02 O. 17 0.21

PROßABILITY; RECURREPCE

0.0100 ' .1000Ë+03 1661. 1768. 1714. 1700. 1730. 1790. 1789. 1728. 16632 0.0200 .5000E+02 1730. 1807. 1768. 1759 - 1781. 1820. 1821. 1779. 1727. 0.0300 .3333E+02 1774. 1832. 1804 - 1797. 1814. 1842. 1843. 1812. 1768. 0.0400 .2500E+02 1807. 1852. . 1831. 1826. 1839 - 1861. 1861. 1838. 1799. 0.0500 .2000E+02 1834. 1869. 1854. 1849. 1860. 1877 - 1875. 1859. 1825. o. 1000 .1000E+02 1927. 1931. 1933. 1932. 1935. 1940. 1930. 1935. 1914. o. 2000 .5000E+O 1 2039. 2015. 2033. 2036. 2032. 2030 - 2006. 2031. 2025. O. 5000 .2000E+O 1 2254. 2212. 2239. 2244. 2234. 2234. 2199. 2235. 2246. O. 8000 .5000E +O 1 2469. 2478. 2467. 2467. 2465. 2466 - 2487. 2466. 2478. o. 9000 .1000E+02 2581. 2654. 2595. 2588. 2598. 2594. 2699. 2598. 2604. O. 9500 - 2000E+02 2673. 2823. 2705'. 2692. 2716. 2700. 2919. 2715. 2710. O. 9600 .2500E+02 2700. 2876. . 2739. 2723. 2751. 2732. 2992. 2750. 2742. O. 9700 .3333E+02 2734. 2945. 2780. 2761. 2796. 2770. . 3089. 2794. 2781. . 0.9800 .5000E+02 2778. 3041. 2836. 2812. 2856. 2822. 3230. 2854. 2833. o. 9900 .1000E+03 2847. 3205. 2926. 2893. 2956. 2903. 3485. 2952. 2916. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF YEARLY TOTAL RAINFALL KOTA SARANG SEMUT STATION ( 5904051 ) 1953-1982 OBSERVED VALUES IN ORDER OF EVENT ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE 53 ,2215.000 54 2666.000 55 2273.000 56 2281.000

57 2453.000 58 2371.000 59 2613.000 - 60 2660.000 1. II. 61 2809.000. ' 62 ' 2172.000 63 2110.000 64 2497.000 65 2449;OOO. ' 66 2581.000 67 2318.000 68 2376.000 69 2511.000 70 2801.000 71 2800.000 72 2200.000 73 2856.000 74 2185.000 75 2774.000 76 2723.000 77 2760.000 78 2747.000 79 2104.000 80 2464.000 82 21.60.000

PLOTTING OF THE 29 OBSERVED VALUES RANKED BY ORDER OF EVENT PROBABILITY = ('RANK-.5)/SIZE OF SAMPLE RANK ORDER PROBABiLITY VALUE RECUARENCE VALUE PROBABILITY RANK ORDER 1 79 0.0172 2104.000 58.000 2856.000 O. 9828 29 73 2 63 0.0517 21 10.000 19.333 2809.000 O - 9483 28 61 3 82 O. 0862 2160.000 11.600 2801 .O00 0.9138 27 70 4' 62 O. 1207 2172.000 8.286 2800.000 O. 8793 26 71 5 74 O. 1552 2185.000 6.444 2774.000 O. 8448 25 75

6 72 O. 1897 2200.000 5.273 2760.000 0.8103 24 77 ' w 7 53 0.2241 2215.000 4.462 2747 .O00 O. 7759 23 78 4 G.7 . ~. 8 55 O. 2586 2273.000 3.867 2723.000 O. 74 14 22 76 9 56 0.2931 2281 .O00 3.412 2666.000 0.7069 21 54 I 10 67 O. 3276 2318.000 3.053 2660.000 O. 6724 20 60 11 58 0.3621 2371 .O00 2.762 2613.000 0.6379 19 59 12 68 O. 3966 2376 .O00 2.522 2581 .O00 0.6034 18 66 13 65 0.4310 2449.000 2.320 251 1 .O00 0.5690 17 69 14 57 O. 4655 2453.000 2.148 2497.000 O. 5345 16 64 15 80 O. 5000 2464.000 2 ..O00 2464.000 O. 5000 15 80

OBSERVED MEAN 2480. OBSERVED MEDIAN 2464. PROBABLE MODE 2482. VAR IANCE 60398. ST-DEVIATION 245.8 VARIAT ION 0.099 ST. DEVIATION/MEAN SKEWNESS COEFF -0.016 THIRD CUMULANT/VARIANCE**1.5 KURTOS IS COEFF -1.666 FOURTH CUMULANT/VARIANCE**2. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF YEARLY TOTAL RAINFALL .. KOTA SARANG SEMUT STATION ( 5904051 ) 1953-1982 FITTING TO THE 9 DISTRIBUTIONS COMPUTED BY MAXIMUM OF LIKELIHOOD METHOD THE PARAMETERS ARE CHOSEN POSITIVES

THE LIMIT OF THE LOWEST POSSIBLE VALUE IS 0.0

GAUSS NORMAL DISTRIBUTION GUMB GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION GALT LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION PEAR PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 3 ,INCOMPLETE GAMMA,IN X PEAV PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 5 ,INCOMPLETE GAMMA,IN 1/X GOOD 1 GOODRICH DISTRIBUTION GENERALIZED EXP0,IN X**A FREC FRECHET DISTRIBUTION,GENERALIZED EXP0,IN 1/X**A LGAM WRC-USA DISTRIBUTION,LOG-GAMMA FIRST FUIT COX AND MILLER DISTRIBUTION

DISTRIBUTION GAUS GUMB GALT PEAR PEAV GOOD FREC LGAM -FUIT PARAMETERS OF SCALE 241 -49 215.64 2468.48 23.67 255646.56 492.62 2349.93 345.39 17.72 OF POSITION 2480.3 1 2360.13 0.0 0.0 0.0 2041.91 0.0 345 - 39 0.0 OF SHAPE FIRST *********** *********** o. 10 104.80 104.06 0.54 -0. o9 400.00 140.00 OF SHAPE SECOND *********** ***********I *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** 0.00 *********** LOWER LIMIT *********** *********** 0.0 0.0 0.0 2041.91 0.0 345.39 0.0 UPPER LIMIT **********f *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** ***********

MEAN 2480.3 1 2484 - 6 1 2480.40 2480.3 1 2480.46 2479.45 2491.86 2825.85, 2480.31 I MEDIAN 2480.3 1 2439.17 2468 :48 2472.42 2464.52 2446.01 2428.40 2464.44 247 1 -44 MODE 2480.3 1 2360.13 2444.82 2456.64 2433.25 2365.55 233 1 .92 2432.91 2453.69

VARIANCE 58315.58 76491.62 59541 .97 58700.92 29704.80 ,60180.28 95293.81 60389.07 87884.62 I COEF VARIATION o. 10 0.11 o. 10 o. 10 0.07 ' o. 10 o. 12 0.09 o. 12 COEF SKEWNESS 0.0 1.14 0.30 0.20 0.40 0.74 1.81 0.40 O. 18 COEF KURTOS IS 0.0 2.40 O! 16 . 0.06 0.30 0.47 6.99 O. 59 0.04 VALUE OF TEST 6.27 7.32 6.33 6.28 6.42 6.42 8.04 6.42 9.82 FREQ. o. 12 0.08 o. 12 o. 12 o. 12 0.11 0.05 0.12 ' 0.03 .

PROBABILITY RECURRENCE

0.0100 .1000E+03. ~ .~~._ 1919. 2031. 1965. 1952. 1978. 2083. 2049. 1978. 1830. - 0.02ÖÖ .5000E+02 1984. 2066. 2018. 2008. 2028. 2102. 2080 - 2028. 1901. 0.0300 .3333E+02 2026. 2090. 2052 .- 2045. 2060. 2117. 2100. ,2060- 1946. 0.0400 .2500E+02 2058. 2108. 2079. 2073. 2085. 2129. 21 16. 2085. 1980. 0.0500 .2000E+02 2083. 2124. 2100. 2096. 2106. 2141 - 2130. 2106. 2008.

0.1000 .1000E+02 2171. 2180. 2177. 2175. 2179. . 2188. 2181. 2179. 2106. 0.2000 .5000E+01 2277. 2258. 2273. 2274. 2272. 2261. 2252. 2271. 2228. 0.5000 .2000E+O.l -2480. 2439. '2468. 2472. 2465. 2446. 2428. 2464. ' 2471.. O. 8000 . .5000E+01 2684. 2684. 2681. 2682. 2680. 2679. 2688. 2680. 2727. 0.9000 .1000E+02 2790. 2845. 2799. 2795. 2802. 2815. 2875. 2803. ' 2866.

' 0.9500 '.2000E+02 2878. 3001. 2901. ' 2892. 2909. 2933. 3067. 2910. -2983. O. 9600 .2500E+C2 2903. 305.0. 2931. 2920. 2941. 2968. - 3130. 2942. 3017. 0.9700 .3333E+82 2934. 3113. 2969. 2956. 2982. 3012." 3213. 2982. 3060. 0.9800 .5000E+G2 2976. 3202. 3020. 3003. 3036. 3071. 3334. 3037. 31 17. 0.9900 .1000E+03 3042. 3352. 3102. . 3079. 3125. 3166. 3549. 3125. 3209. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF YEARLY TOTAL RAINFALL I'. I . STOR JPT ALOR STAR ( 6103047 ) 1953-1982 e .., OBSERVED VALUES IN ORDER OF EVENT

ORDER . . VALUE ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE 53 2421.000 54 1979 - O00 55 2338.000 . 56 2335.000 $7 2639.000 58 1870.000 59 ' 2642 .O00 60 2431 .O00

61 ~ 2571:OOO 62 2249.000 63 2047.000 64 18 12.000 - 65 2330.000 66 2352.000 67 247 1.000 68 1975.000 69 2329.000 70 2377.000 71 2454.000 72 27 17.000 73 2577.000 74 2121.000 75 2553.000 76 2090.000 77 2119.000 78 2190.000 79 1785.000 80 2!370.000 81 1677.000 82 2069.000

PLOTTING OF THE 30 OBSERVED VALUES RANKED BY ORDER OF EVENT PROBABILITY (RANK-.5')/SIZE OF SAMPLE RANK ORDER PROBABTL ITY . VALUE . RECURRENCE VACUE- PROBABILITY .RANK ORDER 1 81 '0.01 67 1677.000 60.000 2717.000 0.'9833 30 72 2 79 O. 0500 1785.000 . 20.000 2642.000 O. 9500. 29 59 3 64 O. 0833 1812.000 12.000 2639.000 0.9167 28 57 4 58 O. 1167 1870.000 8.571 2577.000 O. 8833 27 73 5 68 O. 1500 1975.000' 6.667 2571 .O00 O. 8500 26 61 I 6 54 O. 1833 1979.000 5.455 2570.000 0.8167 25 80 W 7 63 0.2167 2047.000 4.615 2558.000 O. 7833 24 75 W 8 82 O. 2500 2069 - O00 4.000 247 1.. O00 O.~. 7500 .~~ 23 67 I 9 76 O. 2833 2090.000 .3.529 * 2454.000 0.7.167 . 22 71 10 77 0.3167 21 19.000 3.158 , 2431.000 0.6833 21 60

11 74 O. 3500 2121 .O00 2.857 2421 .O00 0.6500 20 53 ' ' 12 78 0.3833 2 190.000 2 .'609 2377.000 0.6167 19 70 13 62 0.4167 2249.000 , 2.400 2352.000 0.5833 18 66 14 69 O. 4500 2329.000 2.222 2338.o00 o. 5500 17 55 15 65 O. 4833 2330.000 2.069 2335.000 0.5167 16 5 68

OBSERVED MEAN 2270. OBSERVED MEDIAN 2332. PROBABLE MODE 2322. VAR I ANCE 78946. ST. DEVIATION 281 .O VAR IAT ION 0.124 ST. DEVIATION/MEAN SKEWNESS COEFF -0.402 THIRD CUMULANT/VARIANCE**1.5 KURTOSIS COEFF -0.967 FOÚRTH CUMULANT/VARIANCE**2. STATIS.TICAL ANALYSIS OF YEARLY TOTAL RAINFALL STOR JPT ALOR. STAR ( 6103047 ) 1953-1982 FITTING TO THE 9 DISTRIBUTIONS COMPUTED BY MAXIMUM OF LIKELIHOOD METHOD THE PARAMETERS ARE CHOSEN POSITIVES t .. I THE LIMIT OF THE LOWEST POSSIBLE VALUE IS 0.0

GAUSS NORMAL DISTRIBUTION GUMB GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION GALT LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION PEAR PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 3 ,INCOMPLETE GAMMA,IN X PEAV PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 5 ,INCOMPLETE GAMMA,IN 1/X GOOD GOODRICH DISTRIBUTION GENERALIZED EXP0,IN X**A 'FREC FRECHET DISTRIBUTION,GENERALLZED EXP0,IN 1/X**A LGAM WRC-USA DISTRIBUTION,LOG-GAMMA FIRST FUIT COX AND MILLER DISTRIBUTION

DISTRIBUTION GAUS GUMB GALT PEAR PEAV GOOD FREC LGAM FUIT PARAMETERS OF SCALE 276.25 278.57 2252.10 35.17 137248.87 2056.27 2107'64 173.05 17.34 OF POSI'TION 2269.66 2127.09 0.0 0.0 0.0 330.81 0.0 173.05 0.0 OF SHAPE FIRST *********** *********** O. 13 64.54 61.44 o. 12 -0.13 400.00 130.92 OF SHAPE SECOND *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** 0.01 *********** LOWER LIMIT *********** *********** 0.0 0.0 0.0 330.81 0.0 173.05 0.0 UPPER LIMIT *********** *Y********* *********** *********** *********** ...... *********** ***********

MEAN 2269.66 ,2287.89 2270.76 2269.66 2270.75 2272.78 2312 -48 2443.84 2269.66 I . MED.1AN 2269.66 2229.19 2252.10 2257.95 2245.97 2300.18 2213.32 2247.28 2260.99 A MODE 2269.66 2 127.09 2215.23 , 2234.49 2198.02 2356.94 2072.68 2201.48 2243:61 0 , VAR IANCE 76314.06 127652:69 85810.00 79821.94 42304.95- 74306.94 199201.50 8671 1.12 78695.87 ' COEF VARIATION o. 12 O. 16 O. 13 o. 12 0.09 o. 12 o, 19 o. 12 0.12 , COEF SKEWNESS 0.0 1.14 0.39 0.25 0.53 -0.56 2.30 0.50 o. 19 COEF KURTOS IS 0.0 2.40 O. 27 0.09 O. 53 0.39 12.62 0.44 0.05 VALUE OF' TEST .3.61 10.14 5.52 4.78 6.37 i.a7 13.98 6.16 4.44 FREQ. 0.43 0.02 O. 18 O. 25 o. 12 0.83 0.00 O. 13 0.30

PROBABILITY RECURRENCE 0.0100 .1000E+03 1627. 1702. 1670. 1665. 1692. 1527. 1719. 1656 - O. 0200 .. 5000E+02 1702. 1747. 1728. 1746. 1629. 1757. 1722. . 0.0300 .3333E+02 . 1750. 1778. 1769. 1782. 1694. 1783. 1765: 0.0400 .2500E+02 1786. 1801. 1800. 1810. 1741. 1803. 1807. 1797. 0.0500 .2000E+02 1815. 1821. 1823. 1826. \ 1833. 1780. 1820. 1830. 1823. 0.1000 .1000E+02 1916. 1895. 1910. 1916. 1915. igoa. 1886 - 1913. igi6. 0.2000 .5000E+01 2037. 1995. 2021. 2029 2054. 1978. 2020. 2031. O. 5000 .2000E+01 2270. 2229. 2252. 2258. 2300. 2213. 2247. ' 2261. O. 8000 .5000E+01 2502. 2545. 2509. 2503. 2506. 2575. 2507, 2503. 0.9000 .1000E+02 2624. 2754.. 2655. 2638. 2599. 2846. 2658. 2634. O. 9500 .2000E+02 2724 - 2955. 2782. 2754. 2793. 2671. 3133. 2791. 2745. 0.9600 .2500E+02 2753. 3018. 2820. 2788. 2834. 2691. 0.9700 .3333E+02 2789. 3100. 2868. 2830. 2885. 2715. 0.9800 .5000E+02 2837.. 3214. 2932. 2887. 2956. 2746. 0.9900 .1000E+03 2912. 3409. 3037. 2978. 3071. ' 2792.

': I y' 'T' ,,+ ' 9 9 C , rr

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF YEARLY TOTAL RAINFALL SERIAP STATION (6301009 ) 1953-1978 AND KODIANG 1979-1982 OBSERVED VALUES IN ORDER OF EVENT

ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE ORDER , VALUE 53 2348.000 54 1967.000 55 2051 .O00 56 2179.000 57 1931 .O00 58 1785.000 . 59 2490.000 60 1875.000 61 2005.000 62 1751 .O00 63 1679.000 64 1666.000 65 2056.000 66 2007.000 67 2535.000 68 1778.000 69 2003.000 70 2323.000 ' 71 1750.000 72 2537.000 73 1813.000 74 1570.000 75 26 12.000 76 1990.000 77 1814.000 78 17 13,000 79 1753.000 80 1882.000 81 1605 - O00 E2 21 16.000

PLOTTING OF THE 30 OBSERVED VALUES RANKED BY ORDER OF EVENT

PROBABILITY = (RANK-.5)/SIZE OF SAMPLE RANK ORDER PROBABILITY VALUE RECURRENCE VALUE PROBABILITY 'RANK ORDER 1 74 0.0167 1570.000 60.000 26 12 .O00 O. 9833 30 75 2 81 O. 0500 1605.000 20.000 2537.000 O. 9500 29 72 3 64 O. 0833 1666.000 12.000 2535 .O00 0.9167 28 67 4 63 O. 1167 1679.000 8.571 2490.000 o. 8833 27 59 5 78 O. 1500 1713.000 6.667 2348.000 O. 8500 26 53 I 6 71 O. 1833 1750.000 5.455 2323 .O00 . 0.8167 25 70 rp 7 62 0.2167 1751 .O00 4.615, 2 179.000 O. 7833 24 56 )--. 8 79 O. 2500 1753.000 4..000 21 16.000 O. 7500 23 82 I 9 68 O - 2833 1778.000 3.529 2056.000 0.7167 22 65 10 . 58 0.3167 1785.000 3.158 205 1 -000, O. 6833 21 55 11 73 O .3 50.0 1813.000 2.857 2007.000 O. 6500 20 66 12 77 O. 3833 1814.000 2.609 2005.000 0.6167 19 13 60 0.4167 1875.000 2.400 2003.000 O. 5833 78 14 80 O. 4500 1882.000 2.222 1990.000 O. 5500 17 76 15 57 O. 4833 1931 .O00 2.069, 1967.000 0.5167 16 54

OBSERVED MEAN 1986. OBSERVED MEDIAN 1949. PROBABLE MODE-~ 1899. VARIANCE 85671. ST. DEVIATION 292.7 VARIATION 6..147 ST. DEVIATION/MEAN SKEWNESS COEFF 0.770 THIRD CUMULANT/VARIANCE**1.5 KURTOS IS COEFF -0.547 FOURTH CUMULANT/VARIANCE**2. *I 'C' p. '7. ?Jh STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF YEARLY TOTAL RAINFALL SERIAP STATION (6301009 ) 1953-1978 AND KODIANG 1979-1982 FITTING TO THE 9 DISTRIBUTIONS COMPUTED BY MAXIMUM OF LIKELIHOOD METHOD THE PARAMETERS ARE CHOSEN POSITIVES THE LIMIT OF THE LOWEST POSSIBLE VALUE IS 0.0 GAUSS NORMAL DISTRIBUTION GUMB GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION GALT LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION PEAR PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 3 ,INCOMPLETE GAMMA,IN X PEAV PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 5 .INCOMPLETE GAMMA-IN 1/X GOOD GOODRICH DISTRIBUTION GENERALIZED EXPO, IN x**Á FREC FRECHET DISTRIBUTION.GENERALIZED EXPO.IN 1/X**A LGAM WRC-USA DISTRIBUTION,LOG-GAMMA FIRST FUIT COX AND MILLER DISTRIBUTION

D IST.R IBUT ION GAUS . GUME GALT PEAR PEAV GOOD FREC LGAM FUIT PARAMETERS OF SCALE 287.78 220.89 544.47 201.29 6019.00 478.81 1840.79. 1478.78 19.98 OF POSITION 1986.13 1853.96 1377.15 1528.03 1186.70 1553.14 0.0 1478.78 0.0 OF SHAPE FIRST *********** *********** ' 0.48 2.28 8.51 O. 67 -0.11 3.84 99.42 OF SHAPE SECOND *********** *********** ********$** *********** *********** *********** *********** 0.07 *****e***** LOWER LIMIT . *********** *********** 1377.15 1528.03 1186.70 1553.14 0.0 1478.78 0.0 UPPER LIMIT *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** MEAN 1986.13 1981 -46 1988.09 1986.13 1988.62 1985.30 1989.30 3467.15 1986.13 i MEDIAN ,1986.13 1934.92 1921.62 1921 .O7 1922.98 1928.29 1919.74 1919.14 1976.13 1799.38 1956.09 N MODE , 1986.13 1853.96 1809.59 1784.84 1819.89 1784.04 1818 .O6 VARIANCE 82814.81 80259.56 96701.75 9221 1.31 40163.09 85860.3 1 104300.3 1 99050.8 1 79353.19 ' COEF VARIATION ' O. 14 O. 14 O. 16 O. 15 o. 10 O. 15 O. 16 0.09 ' 0.14 COEF SKEWNESS 0.0 1.14 1.66 1.33 1.85 1 .O7 2.07 1.71 0.21 COEF KURTOSIS 0.0 2.40 5.26 2.64 7.63 1.38 9.67 5.60 0.06 VALUE OF TEST 8.73 2.51 1.92 2.16 1.94 2.50 1-99 2.01 6.97 FREQ. 0.04 0.67 0.82 0.76 0.81 O. 68 0.80 0.80 0.09 .

PROBABILITY RECURRENCE 0.0100 .1000E+03 1317. 1517. 1555. 1571. 1547. 1576. 1545. 1564. 1376. o. 0200 .5000E+02 1395. 1553. 1580. 1588. 1575. 1589 - 1574. 1586. 1441.1482. O. 0300 .3333E+02 1445. 1577 .. 1598. 1601. 1594. 1600. 1594. 1601. O. 0400 .2500E+02. 1482. 1596. - 1612. 1613. 1610. 1610. 1610. 1614. 1514. O. 0500 .2000E+02 1513. 1612. 1624. 1623. 1623. 1619. 1623. 1625'. 1540. o. 1000 .1000E+02 1617. 1670. 1671. 1665. 1672. 1660. 1673. 1670. 1632. o. 2000 .5000E +O 1 1744. 1749. 1741. 1732. 1743. 1730. 1743. 1738. 1746. .0.5000 2000E+O 1 1986. 1935. 1922. 1921. 1923. 1928. 1920. 1919. 1976. O. 8000 .5000E+01 2228. 2185. 2193. 2203. '2189. ' 2210. 2186. 2195. 2220. o. 9000 .1000E+02 , 2355. 2351. 2384. 2393.. 2379. 2387. 2382. 2390. 2353. O. 9500 .2000E+02 2459. 2510. 2576. 2572. 2574. 2547. 2587. 2585. 2466. O. 9600 .2500E+02 2490 - 2560. 2639. 2628. 2638. 2596. 2656. 2648. 2499. O. 9700 .3333E+02 2527. 2625. 2720. 2699. 2722. 2657. 2746. 2731. 2541. O. 9800 .5000E+02 2577. 2716. 2836. 2799. 2844 i 2740. 2878. 2849. 2596. o. 9900 .1000E.+03 2656. 2870. 3040. 2966. 3063. 2876. 31 18. 3058. 2685.

I J ', 'b t7 I 'i 'i STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF YEARLY MEAN DISCHARGE. JENIANG CABLEWAY STATION ( 5806414 ) 1947-1982 OBSERVED VALUES IN ORDER OF. EVENT

ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE 47 56.600 48 35.400 49 51.400 50 39.100 51 46.500 52 39.300 53 49.100 54 39.200 55 48.100 56 53.500 57 54.200 58 38.100 59 42.300 60 45.300 61 32.700 62 39.500 63 51.700 64 39.900 65 49.800 66 57.400 67 49.600 68 25.100 70 52.600-~ ___ 71 54.100 .72 58.000 73 73.500 74 43.900 75 47.600 76 57 - 900 77 36.700 78 32.300 79 35.400 80 50.500 81 39.400 82 56.700

PLOTTING OF' THE 35 OBSERVED VALUES RANKED BY ORDER OF EVENT PROBABILITY =' (RANK-.S)/SIZE OF SAMPLE

,- RANK ORDER PROBABILITY VALUE RECURRENCE VALUE PROBABILITY RANK ORDER 1 68 0.0143 25.100 70.000 73.500 O. 9857 35 73 2 78 0.0429 32.300 23.333 58.000 0.9571 34 72 3 61 0.0714 32.700 14.000 57.900 O. 9286 33 76 4 48 0.1000 35.400 10.000 57 - 400 o. 9000 32 66 5 79 0.1286 35.400 . 7.778 56.700 0.8714 31 82 I IP 6 77 0.1571 36.700 6.364 56.600 O. 8429 30 47 W 7 58 0.1857 38.100 5.385 54.200 0.8143 29 57 8 50 0.2143 39.100 4.667 54.100 O. 7857 28 71 I 9 54 0.2429 39.200 4.118 53.500 0.7571 27 56 10 52 0.2714 39.300 3.684 52.600 O. 7286 26 70 11 81 O. 3000 39.400 3.333 51 -700 O. 7000 25 63 12 62 0.3286 39.500 3.043 51.400 0.6714 24 49 13 64 0.3571 39.900 2.800 50.500 O. 6429 23 80 14 59 0.3857 42.300 2.593 49.800 0.6143 22 65 15 74 0.4143 43.900 2.414 49.600 O. 5857 21 67 16 60 0.4429 45.300 2.258 49.100 0.5571 20 53 17 51 0.4714 46.500 2.121 48.100 O. 5286 19 55 18 75 0.5000, 47.600 2.000 47.600 O. 5000 18 75

OBSERVED MEAN 46.4 ÖBSERVED MEDIAN 47.6 PROBABLE MODE 45.1 VAR IANCE 94.4 ST-DEVIATION 9.71 VAR IAT ION 0.210 ST. DEVIATION/MEAN SKEWNESS COEFF 0.257 THIRD CUMULANT/VARIANCE**1.5 KURTOSIS COEFF 0.320 FOURTH CUMULANT/.VARIANCE**2.

I 9 'J *' STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF YEARLY MEAN DISCHARGE JENIANG CABLEWAY STATION ( 5806414 ) 1947-1982 FITTING TO THE 9 DISTRIBUTIONS COMPUTED BY MAXIMUM OF LIKELIHOOD METHOD THE PARAMETERS ARE CHOSEN POSITIVES THE LIMIT OF THE LOWEST POSSIBLE VALUE IS 0.0 GAUSS NORMAL DISTRIBUTION GUMB GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION GALT LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION PEAR PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 3 ,INCOMPLETE GAMMA,IN X PEAV PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 5 ,INCOMPLETE GAMMA,IN 1/X GOOD GOODRICH DISTRIBUTION GENERALIZED EXP0,IN X**A FREC FRECHET DISTRIBUTION,GENERALIZED EXP0,IN 1/X**A LGAM WRC-USA DISTRIBUTI0N.LOG-GAMMA FIRST FUIT COX AND MILLER DISTRIBUTION

DISTRIBUTION GAUS . GUMB GALT PEAR PEAV GOOD FREC LGAM FUIT PARAMETERS OF SCALE 9.57 9.00 45.34 2.03 954.87 29.51 40.60 0.61 1 .o0 OF POSITION 46.35 41.65 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.98 0.0 0.61 0.0 OF SHAPE FIRST *********** ********-*** o. 22 22.84 21.56 0.34 -0.23 400.00 46.50 OF SHAPE SECOND *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** 0.01 *********Y.* LOWER LIMIT *********** *********** 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.98 0.0 0.61 0.0 UPPER LIMIT *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** ***********

MEAN 46.35 46.85 46.43 46.35 46.45 46.32 48.81 47.02 46.35 I MEDIAN 46.35 44.95 45.34 45.68 . 44.99 46.06 44.20 45.18 45.85 MODE 46 - 35 41.65 43.24 44.32 42 - 33 45 - 68 38.68 42.84 44.85 2 VAR IANCE 91.68 133.17 104.75 94.09 51 -23 93 - 37 348.22 105.05 92.42 I COEF VARIATION 0.21 0.25 o. 22 0.21 O. 15 0.21 0.38 0.22 0.21 COEF SKEWNESS 0.0 1.14 O. 67 0.42 0.95 0.18 , 4.64 0.79 0.31 COEF KURTOSIS 0.0 2.40 0.81 0.26 1.78 ' -0.27 159.96 1.11 O. 13 'VALUE OF. TEST 3.99 8.16 5.37 4.00 7.12 4.27 18.28 6.10 3.67. FREGI. 0.39 0.06 0.21 0.39 '0.10 ' 0.35 0.00 O. 15 0.45

PROBABILITY RECURRENCE 0.0100 - 1000E+03 24.1 27.9 27.3 26.8 28.3 26.2 28.5 27.9 26.3 o. 0200 - 5000E+02 26.7 29.4 29.0 28.7 29.7 27.9 29.6 29.4 28.3 O. 0300 .3333E+02 ' 28.3 30.4 30.1 29.9 30.7 29.1 30.3 30.5 ' 29.6 O. 0400 .2500E+02 29.6 31.1 31 .O 30.8 31.5 30.0 31 .O 31-3 30.6 O. 0500 .20OOE+02 30.6 31 -8 31.7 31.6 32.1 . 30.8 31 -5 32 .O 31.4 o. 1000 .1000E+02 34.1 34.2 34.3 34.4 34.5 33.8 33.5 34.5 34.4 o. 2000 .5000E+01 38.3 37.4 37.7 38.1 37.7 37.8 36.4 37.8 38.1 O. 5000 .2000E +O 1 46.4 45.0 45.3 45.7 45.0 46.1 44.2 45.2 45.9 O. 8000 .5000E +O 1 54.4 55.2 54.5 54.3 ' 54.3 54.6 ,57.5 54.3 54.3 o. 9000 .1000E+02 58.6 61.9 59.9 59.1 60.2 59; 1 68.4 59.9 59.0 O. 9500 .2000E+02 62.1 68.4 64.9 63.. 4 65.7 62.7 80.9 65.1 63.0 O. 9600 .2500E+02 63.1 70.4 66.4 64.6 67.5 63.7 85.3 66.6 . 64.2 O. 9700 .3333E+02 64.4 73.1 68.3 66.2 69.7 65.0 91.3 68.7 65.7 O. 9800 .5000E+02 66,. O 76.8 70.9 68.4 72.8 66.7 100.4 71 -4 67.7 o. 9900 .1000E+03 68.6 83.0 75.3 71 -8 78.0 69.3 118.0 76.1 70.9 G 2- D' STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF YEARLY MEAN DISCHARGE KULIM AT ARA KUDA BRIDGE ( 5405421 ) 1953-1982 OBSERVED VALUES IN ORDER OF EVENT ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE ORDER VALUE . 53 10.200 54 9.400 55 4.970 57 4 - 300 58 5.840 59 6.830 60 5.470 61 5. göö 62 8.250 63 6.080 64 6.710 65 6.100 66 7.170 67 6.880 68 4.850 69 5.600 70 7.700 71 5.670 72 6.040 73 6.390 74 4.270 75 6.010 76 5.130 77 4.910 78 5.990 79 7.000 80 9.870 81 7.800 82 8 .O40

PLOTTING OF THE 29 OBSERVED VALUES RANKED BY ORDER OF EVENT

PROBABILITY = (RANK-.5)/SIZE OF SAMPLE

RANK ORDER PROBABILITY VALUE RECURRENCE VALUE PROBABILITY RANK ORDER

1 74 0.0172 4.270 58.600 10.200 0.9828 29 53 I 2 57 0.0517 4.300 19.333 9.870 0.9483 28 80 3 68 0:0862 4.850 11.600 9.400 0.9138 27 54 4 77 O. 1207 4.910 8.286 8.250 0.8793 26 62 5 55 O. 1552 4.970 6.444 8.040 0.8448 25 82 I 6 76 O. 1897 5.130 5.273 7.800 0.8103 24 81 lb 7 60 0.2241 5.470 4.462 7.700 .O. 7759 23 70 UI 8 69 O. 2586 5.600 3.867 7.170 0.7414 22 66 I 9 .71 0.2931 5.670 3.412 7.000 0.7069 21 79 10 58 O. 3276 5.840 3.053 6.880 0.6724 ' 20 67 11 61 0.3621 5.900 2.762 6.830 0.6379 19 59 12 78 O. 3966 5.990 2.522 6.710 0.6034 18 64 13 75 0.4310 6.010 2.320 6.390 0.5690 17 73 14 7.2 O. 4655 6.040 2.148 6.100 0.5345 16 65 15 63 O. 5000 6.080 2.000 6.080 0.5000 15 63

OBSERVED MEAN 6.5 OBSERVED MEDIAN 6.1 PROBABLE MODE 6.0 , VAR IANCE 2.4 ST.DEVIATION 1.5 VAR IAT ION 0.236 ST. DEVIATION/MEAN SKEWNESS COEFF 0.845 THIRD CUMULANT/VARIANCE**1.5 KURTOSIS COEFF . 0.081 FOURTH CUMULANT/VARIANCE**2.

. .. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF YEARLY MEAN DISCHARGE KULIM AT ARA KUDA BRIDGE ( 5405421 ) 1953-1982 FITTING TO THE 9 DISTRIBUTIONS COMPUTED BY MAXIMUM OF LIKELIHOOD METHOD THE PARAMETERS ARE CHOSEN POSITIVES THE LIMIT OF THE LOWEST POSSIBLE VALUE IS 0.0 GAUSS NORMAL DISTRIBUTION GUMB GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION GALT LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION PEAR PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 3 ,INCOMPLETE GAMMA,IN x PEAV PEARSON DISTRIBUTION TYPE 5 ,INCOMPLETE GAMMA,IN 1/X GOOD GOODRICH DISTRIBUTION GENEQALIZED EXP0,IN X**A FREC FRECHET DISTRIBUTION,GENERALIZED EXP0,IN 1/X**A LGAM WRC-USA DISTRIBUTION,LOG-GAMMA FIRST FUIT COX AND MILLER DISTRIBUTION

DISTRIBUTION GAUS GUMB GALT PEAR PEAV GOOD FREC LGAM FUIT PARAMETERS OF SCALE 1.52 1.19 3.68 0.87 63.16 2.71 5.71 2.45 O. 17 ÖF PÖSÏTION 6.56 5.83 2.58 3.74 , 1.31 4.10 0.0 2.45 0.0 OF SHAPE FIRST *********** *********** 0.38 3.20 13.09 0.62 -0.20 18.09 39.42 OF SHAPE SECOND *********** ******.***** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** 0.05 *********** LOWER LIMIT *********** *********** 2.58 3.74 1.31 4.10 0.0 2.45 0.0 UPPER LIMIT *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** *********** ***********

MEAN 6.53 6.52 6.53 6.53 6.53 6.52 6.65 8.98 6.53 I MEDIAN 6.. 53 6.27 6.26 6.25 6.26 6.26 6.15 6.26 6.45 a MODE 6.53 5.83 5.76. 5.66 5.79 5.59 5.51 5.77 6.28 0-1 1 VARIANCE 2.30 2.33 2.44 2.43' 1 .O8 2.36 4.32 2.47 2.16 COEF .VAR IAT ION 0.23 O. 23 0.24 O. 24 O. 16 0.24 0.31 O. 18 O. 23 COEF SKEWNESS 0.0 1.14 1.25 1.12 1.32 0.94 3.51 1.32 0.34 COEF KURTOS1.S , 0.0 2.40 2.89 1.88 3.56 0.99 44.16' 3.46 O. 15 VALUE OF TEST 7.21 1.24 1.35 1.75 1.29 2.35 3.39 1.33 4.35 FREQ. 0.08 0.95 0.93 0.85 0.94 0.71 O. 47 o.. 93 0.30

PROBABILITY RECURRENCE 0.0100 .1000E+03 3.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 . 3.5 o. 0200 .5000E+02 3.4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 3.8 O. 0300 .3333E+02 3.7 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.0 O. 0400 .2500E+02 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.1 O - 0500 .2000E+02 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.3 o. 1000 .1000E+02 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 o * 2000 .5000E+O 1 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 O. 5000 .2000E+O 1 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.4 O. 8000 .500OE+O 1 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.7 ' 7.6 7.7 o. 9000 .1000E+02 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8;6 8.6 8.9 8.6 8.5 O. 9500 .2000E+02 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.4 10.3 9.5 9.1 O. 9600 .2500E+02 9.2 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.7 9.7 10.8 9.8 9.3 O. 9700 .3333E+02 9.. 4 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.0 11.5 10.1 9.5 O. 9800 .5000E+02 9.6 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.4 12.4 10.7 '9.8 o. 9900 .1000E+03 10.1 11.3 11.5 11.4 11.6 11.1 14.3 11.6, 10.3