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Dear Friends and Members of the Stcc JULY 2019 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #108 TOP NEWS SUPPORTED BY Deutsche Bank: Contemplating no deal Legal: Conciliation Act BE 2562 Member: Josef Schnyder / TPG Immo Co. Ltd. School News: The 2019 Graduates of RIS Swiss Section – Deutschsprachige Schule Bangkok say Farewell/ Economic week 2019 / Last day of school celebration 2019 THE PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE DEAR FRIENDS AND MEMBERS OF THE STCC to-date against the US dollar. Thailand’s solid economic fun- damentals – such as its massive foreign reserves, high current account surplus, and financial stability – attracts foreign in- flows and consequently pushes the Thai Baht higher. It is an issue not just for the sagging PRESIDENT BRUNO G. ODERMATT export industry, but also for SERVICE many foreign pensioners who As many of our members have chose Thailand as their place STCC CALENDAR left Thailand for their well-de- to spend their golden years. If served summer holidays, my- you arrived in Thailand some Thursday 11th July 2019: self included, some of us were years ago with a pension and STCC Stamm at Arnoma really taken by surprise by the an exchange rate of 55 Baht Hotel, 18:00 prevailing heat wave in most to the Euro, your purchasing Saturday, 3rd August 2019: parts of Europe. I have hardly power suddenly diminished Swiss National Day Garden seen temperatures above 40 by 35%, not an easy bullet to Party @ Swiss Embassy, 15:30, degrees in Switzerland or Ger- swallow. Some pundits believe organized by Swiss Embassy many, but many heat records that the Thai Baht’s apprecia- and SSB for all members of were broken this year. The Bank tion is not consistent with the he Swiss Community Thailand of Thailand experienced heat economic fundamentals. of a different kind, as it imple- Thursday 8th August 2019: mented measures to curb the The heat pressure is not just on STCC Stamm at Arnoma inflows of hot money into Thai- in Thailand but also in Europe, Hotel, 18:00 land, especially off-shore in- especially in the UK, where the flows parked in short-end Thai race opened up as to who is to Thursday 12th September 2019: bonds. The Thai Baht has been become the next Prime Min- STCC Stamm at Arnoma the top performing currency ister to succeed Theresa May. Hotel, 18:00 in Asia, gaining 5.5% year- Another heated topic is how 1 JULY 2019 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #108 THE PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE SUPPORTED BY the nation will orderly with- of younger women joining the draw from the European Un- demonstrations and the wide ion (EU). Parliament soundly support it generated in the rejected three times this year general public and the gov- the plan offered by Theresa ernment. The Swiss parliament May for Britain’s departure interrupted its session for from the EU, and the EU bloc 15 minutes to pay tributes to in turn agreed twice to post- the strikes cause. It was also pone the exit date, now slat- a highly reported event in the ed for 31 October. The French foreign media such as Wall philosopher Bernard-Henry Street Journal and Financial Levy summarized this chaotic Times, as well as even support situation in a wonderful essay, from the United Nations. One where he stated that the UK can say that Switzerland is should be free to choose to be- always good for positive sur- come a “Little England”, after prises, but equality remains all, populations have as much as much as a burning issue in right to commit suicide as indi- most parts of the world as it TRINA viduals do. It will be more than does in Switzerland. INTERNATIONAL interesting to see how the fu- ture Prime-Minister-to-be will The next time you partake sort out this mess, one can in a vote in Switzerland, as only keep the fingers crossed many of us Swiss expatriates for this once great nation. do, you should consult www. easyvote.ch. EasyVote is an Switzerland also had its fair educational platform, truly in- share of publicity, where wom- dependent of political parties, en across Switzerland took whose aim is to educate and to the streets by the tens of guide voters through the often thousands in a historic strike complex issue of an upcoming to demand equal treatment election. The project special- and equal workplace condi- ly targets young voters and tions compared to their male motivates them to partake in counterparts. It was quite a Switzerland’s unique election SERVICE rare event in a country where process. It is a brilliantly de- “strike” actions are few and signed model run by 150 plus Friday 20th September 2019: many women were concerned volunteers to engage voters Site Visit at Haefele Thailand, about neglecting their work- through easy to understand Sukhumvit 64 at 13:30 place duties. It was the larg- videos and apps. It is a project est political demonstration funded by the “Dachverband More details for in recent history, even bigger Schweizer Jugendparlamente” above events please wait than the women’s strike in and demonstrates Swiss in- for the invitation-mail or get 1991. What was encouraging novation and creativity even it from www.swissthai.com, to see was the large number in the realm of political dis- click on “events”. 2 JULY 2019 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #108 THE PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE SERVICE course. The better educated in early September and we will voters are, the better our dem- let you know the date well in MEMBER DETAIL ocratic political systems work, advance of this event. UPDATES and the better the outcomes for the nation, its communities With this in mind, I wish you Do you have changes among your and individuals. a nice summer break. Please delegates or changes to your continue to join or monthly e-mail, mobile, telephone, Inside this edition you will Stamm and partake at our net- or fax numbers? also find an enlightening ar- work events. ticle by Remy Friedman from Please send all updates to the Department of Foreign With my best wishes [email protected] Affairs, Human Security Di- vision, about “Business and Human Rights”. The question MEMBERSHIP which comes to mind is: why Bruno G. Odermatt-Maag should human rights matter President FEES 2019 to any business and how can The invoices for the year 2019 will it improve bottom line profit- *** be sent out by e-mail during Janu- ability? Hopefully you might Contact the President: ary 2019. Kindly make sure that you find some good answers in this Bruno G. Odermatt approve the invoice and forward it thoughtful guest article. President STCC for payment to your accounting and [email protected] make sure that THE PAYMENT SLIP As July and August are rela- Tel: +66 2 652 1911 COPY IS SENT TO tively less-intense months in our business calendars, we do [email protected] not have any major events of business luncheons planned Thanks for your support. during that period. Our next event will be a company visit Adhesive & Sealant Technologies MS Hybrid Polymer best performing window, door and facade sealant. Southeast Asia Link Co., Ltd. www.seal-ast.com T: 0 2732 2092 3 JULY 2019 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #108 ECONOMY SPECIAL REPORT BY DEUTSCHE BANK CONTEMPLATING NO DEAL Our takeaway from the Asia Access Asia Confer- ed to rate cuts by the Fed or PBoC, such policy ence and the subsequent roadshows was that, actions are unlikely to save the global economy while investors are clearly concerned over the from a recession. Moreover, no deal suggests rapidly worsening trade tensions, they are re- a breaking up of the global supply chain as we luctant to take more aggressive positions in the know it today, putting the global economy on a market, given the unpredictable evolution of the disruptive path towards a bipolar system. trade negotiations and restrictive actions by the authorities. As the US and China continue to So what would be the cost to China in this regard? harden their positions, however, we thought it As our China economist has put it, a hollowing- would be prudent to contemplate the potential out of US-related production would have a sig- direct effects and collateral damage arising from nificant impact on the economy. If tariffs and no deal. Thrown into this escalating conflict is a other barriers were to become so costly that all tariff measure by the US on Mexico over illegal final production related to the US market was migration, potential effects of which we also moved to outside China – including all of the up- consider. While an all-out trade war would quick- stream supply chains – China’s industrial output ly prompt broader macro policy easing, not lim- would contract by 5%, also resulting in a nega- ited to rate cuts by the Fed or PBoC, such policy tive spillover effect of 1.2% in non-manufactur- actions are unlikely to save the global economy ing sector valueadded. The aggregate shock to from a recession. Worse still, no deal also sug- China’s GDP would be 2.6%, affecting 9.7mn gests a breaking up of the global supply chain as in manufacturing jobs and 6.3mn in related we know it today, likely putting the global econo- non-manufacturing jobs, raising the unem- my on a disruptive path towards a bipolar system. ployment rate by 2.3ppts, excluding secondary round effects. A more benign scenario assumes Contemplating no deal restriction in the supply chain adjustment, in the face of constraints other economies face in As the two superpowers, the US and China, hard- skilled labor and infrastructure, for example.
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