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Dear Friends and Members of the Stcc OCTOBER 2020 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #123 TOP NEWS SUPPORTED BY Legal: Amendments to Thailand’s Civil Procedure Code to Allow Civil Mediation before Litigation / New Precedent on Statutory Limitation on Time for Gov’s Tax Claim / 150% Special Tax Deduction for Machinery Investment 2020 School News: Gardening / Play is joyful / Open House Info Session at RIS Swiss Section – Deutschsprachige Schule Bangkok THE PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE DEAR FRIENDS AND MEMBERS OF THE STCC as bright for Thailand. In a nut- shell – it might well be a long haul to recovery. As we are in daily contact with our members and trying to reach out to all those who need support during these stressful times, please let us know of there is any help we could provide to you. We have PRESIDENT BRUNO G. ODERMATT now our fully-staffed office in place and would like to hear from As we are moving into the fi- you. Through the Joint Foreign nal quarter of this year, many of Chamber of Commerce (JFCCT) we our member companies are truly are in regular contact with the feeling the impact of the deep- Thai Tourism Ministry to open up est economic contraction we the borders and bring back inter- have seen since in the last two national tourists in a controlled SERVICE decades. The mainstay tourism manner. It is one important step industry was really hammered by in the right direction. MEMBER DETAIL the Covid-19 pandemic and the sell-off in the Thai Baht, under- As the US presidential election UPDATES performing stock market, and is just one month away in the pressure on the bond market re- making, the first spectacle of the Do you have changes among your flects the concerns of local and presidential debate produced delegates or changes to your foreign investors. Add to that the some shock and sadness. I fol- e-mail, mobile, telephone, emerging political instability, lowed the debate for around 15 or fax numbers? with student protest movements minutes before I switched it off, gaining momentum and the sur- as it was a waste of time. In a 90 Please send all updates to prise resignation of Finance Min- minutes show of name calling [email protected] ister Predee Doachai, the future and throwing accusations at each economic prospects do not look other, the two debaters, one 74 1 OCTOBER 2020 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #123 THE PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE SUPPORTED BY and the other one 77 years of age, good for a surprise and proved it referred to each other as clowns once again. On a side note, ten and losers, and other profanities. of thousands Swiss living abroad 69% of Americans watching the were furious that they have not debate on TV were just dismayed received the voting documents (source CBS), and Der Spiegel or received them too late. The TRINA posted on Twitter: “The debate main culprit: Covid-19. It is in- INTERNATIONAL was a joke, a low point, a shame teresting to note that some for the country“. In the latest 190,000 Swiss living abroad are annual survey of Germans, which on the electoral roll world wide measures the “fears of Germans”, and if, let’s say 30,000 thou- you would be surprised to learn sands of them did not receive what 2,400 respondents rated the voting documents, then it as their top concern. It is not could have possibly influenced the fear of economic downturn, the vote on acquiring the fight- unemployment, Covid-19 or ter- er jets The difference between rorist attacks - but rather the the ‘yes’ and ‘no’ camps were unpredictable policies of the only 10,000 votes. It is one more American President (source R+V reason to push the parliament Versicherung); 53% responded to provide an e-voting platform they were afraid of Trump’s poli- for the 800,000 Swiss not living cies, followed by increased cost in Switzerland. of living (51%) and the cost of EU debt for taxpayers (49%). On a more social note, our Sep- tember Social Stamm Network- On the other hand, the Swiss peo- ing event at the Sixty Four res- ple once again proved again their taurant at Häfele Design Studio pragmatic sense in tackling sen- was a splendid success and sitive political issues and reject- attended by a large number of ed the limits to immigration from members, including some new the EU. 61,7% of voters rejected faces and a fair number of young the measures proposed by the professionals. It was the first Swiss People’s party and demon- one organized and coordinat- strated that they want “solid and ed by our new Executive Direc- sustainable bilateral relations tor and we are looking forward with its most important trading to many more high quality So- partner”, according to Justice cial and Business Stamm events Minister Karin Keller-Suter. One in the future. the other hand 50,2% of voters, with a razor thin majority, were As we are in the process of up- willing to open their spending grading our Chamber’s opera- purse and agreed to buy new tions and improving our services fighter jets for us much as 6,5 bil- and interactions with our mem- lion US$. Swiss voters are always bers, please let us know if you 2 OCTOBER 2020 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #123 THE PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE have any suggestions or topics With my best wishes Contact the President: you think we should focus on. Bruno G. Odermatt-Maag, CPCU We appreciate your engagement President STCC and thank you in advance for your commitment to the STCC, Bruno G. Odermatt-Maag [email protected] especially during these turbu- President Tel: +66 2 652 1911 lent times. *** STCC CALENDAR SEPTEMBER 2020: Thursday 08th October: STCC Social Stamm at Arnoma Grand Hotel 18:00 Wednesday 21st October: Multi Chambers Networking Night at Ramada Plaza by Wyndham Bangkok Menam Riverside (joint Event) Saturday, 31st October: GTCC Bavarian Beer Fest 2020 at Conrad Hotel Bangkok Thursday 12th November: “Tri-Nation Night” at Kimpton Maa-Lai Bangkok Thursday 19th November: Annual Special Business Networking Stamm at the Swiss Embassy Wednesday 25th November: Multi Chambers Networking Night (venue tbd) (joint event) More details for above events please wait for the invitation-mail or get it from www.swissthai.com, click on “events”. 3 OCTOBER 2020 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #123 ECONOMY SPECIAL REPORT BY DEUTSCHE BANK ASIA MACRO INSIGHT While the rebound from the Covid-driven plunge tFor much of this year, the relative economic perfor- in activity has been stronger than anticipated in mance of Asia’s economies has reflected their rela- China, another wave of the outbreak has muted the tive success in containing the Covid-19 pandemic. recovery for economies like South Korea and Hong We think that over the next year, relative economic Kong as social distancing restrictions were tight- performance will depend in large part on govern- ened. The same has happened in Indonesia and the ment’s success in achieving herd immunity -- hope- Philippines, although to a lesser extent despite fully via widespread acceptance of vaccines. This is their worse Covid-19 trajectories. However, the unlikely before late 2021, though, even in the most tolerance for extended rigorous social distancing successful economies. appears to be weakening, with new social distanc- ing regulations being in most places milder and im- Although developments on the vaccine front have posed for shorter durations. People appear to have been promising, there are concerns about a possible learned how to protect themselves and to live with low acceptance of these new vaccines by the public. the virus better than during the initial outbreaks, It may also matter importantly which vaccines are as economic data are proving in some respects more put into commercial production first – they vary resilient to the virus. significantly in cost and emerging economies could be at a disadvantage in acquiring enough vaccine. India, like Indonesia and the Philippines, has yet to get the outbreak under control but pushed ahead Until herd immunity has been achieved, we think with easing of lockdown measures nonetheless, al- economies will remain hostage to the virus -- lowing for a recovery of economic activity. Its gov- shrinking with each new outbreak and expanding ernment is likely to provide further fiscal support quickly as social distancing eases with the subse- while the Reserve Bank tries to cap yields without quent decline in infection risks. further policy rate cuts. Except in Sri Lanka, we think central banks have reached the limits of con- The number of new Covid-19 infections has re- ventional stimulus through interest rate cuts. Chi- mained in the low double-digits in China. Any na is likely to lead the way in tightening next year, localized outbreaks have been met with a swift tar- amid rising concerns over property price inflation. geted lockdown and testing, saving the economy 4 OCTOBER 2020 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #123 ECONOMY SPECIAL REPORT BY DEUTSCHE BANK from a resurgence of Covid-19. Currently, China has four Covid-19 vaccines that are in Phase III clinical trials, with two reportedly preparing for commer- cial production well before end-2020. If successful, these vaccines could place China’s economy in a league of its own in 2020. of this year, we have revised up China’s GDP growth forecast for the year to 2% from 1.6% previously. Annual growth rates will be biased upwards in early 2021 by the base effect from this year’s recession, but with the growth impulse slowing back to trend, the Q4/Q4 GDP growth rate of 6% next year is prob- Thanks to its success in containing the virus, China ably more meaningful than the 9% annual average has continued to enjoy an uninterrupted rebound growth rate.
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