Political Transition in Tunisia

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Political Transition in Tunisia Political Transition in Tunisia Alexis Arieff Analyst in African Affairs February 2, 2011 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RS21666 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Political Transition in Tunisia Summary Tunisia has undergone a major political upheaval in recent weeks, dubbed the “Jasmine Revolution.” On January 14, 2011, Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled the country after several weeks of increasingly audacious anti-government protests. The speaker of parliament, Fouad Mebazaa, has since assumed the role of interim president, and an interim government has been formed ahead of elections expected in six months. However, the stability of the government and the broader impact of recent developments is difficult to predict. The Tunisia uprising appears to have added momentum to latent anti-government and pro-reform sentiment in Egypt, Yemen, Algeria, Jordan, and other countries, and has sparked international concern over stability in a region long associated with seemingly secure, autocratic, pro-U.S. regimes. Prior to the December-January protests, Tunisia had been seen as a stable, albeit autocratic country since its independence from France in 1956. Ben Ali, in power since 1987, was elected for a fifth term in October 2009 in an election widely seen as flawed and boycotted by leading opposition parties. His Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) party exerted near-total control over parliament, state and local governments, and most political activity. The government cultivated strong ties with France and the European Union, its largest trading partner, as well as with the United States. Despite many political and economic characteristics shared across the region, Tunisia exhibits a number of unique attributes: it has a relatively small territory, a large and highly educated middle class, and a long history of encouraging women’s socio-economic freedoms. Tunisia’s Islamist movement has not played a leading role in the expression of domestic dissent in recent years, although it did in the 1980s before it was banned by Ben Ali. The unexpected and rapid transition in Tunisia raises a wide range of questions for the future of the country and the region. These pertain to the struggle between reformists and entrenched forces carried over from the former regime; the potential shape of the new political order; the potential future role of Islamist and/or radical movements in the government and society; the role of the military as an emerging political power-broker; and the difficult diplomatic balance—for the United States and other actors—of encouraging greater democratic openness while not undermining other foreign policy priorities. Congress may play a role in developments through its foreign assistance policies and oversight of U.S.-Tunisia relations, and of broader U.S. policy toward the Middle East. U.S. officials, who grew increasingly critical of the government in the days prior to Ben Ali’s departure, have since stated their support for political transition and called for free and fair elections. U.S.-Tunisian relations largely emphasize military and counterterrorism cooperation, although Tunisia has pushed for a greater focus on trade. The United States is Tunisia’s primary supplier of military equipment, which is provided through both direct sales and grants, and a large number of Tunisian military officers have received U.S. training. Congress has been supportive of security assistance programs in Tunisia, directing the State Department in FY2009 and FY2010 to allocate levels of Foreign Military Financing (FMF) that surpassed budget requests by the executive branch. For analysis of the potential impact of Tunisia’s uprising on Egypt, see CRS Report RL33003, Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations, by Jeremy M. Sharp. Congressional Research Service Political Transition in Tunisia Contents Recent Developments..................................................................................................................1 Tunisia’s “Jasmine Revolution”.............................................................................................1 Reforms Pledged...................................................................................................................4 Relations with the United States..................................................................................................5 The U.S. Response to Recent Events .....................................................................................6 U.S. Assistance .....................................................................................................................7 Congress and Bilateral Aid..............................................................................................8 Emerging Actors .........................................................................................................................9 The Trade Unions................................................................................................................10 The Security Forces ............................................................................................................10 The “Legal” Opposition Parties...........................................................................................12 The Islamist Movement.......................................................................................................12 Background on Tunisia .............................................................................................................16 The Ben Ali Government (1987-January 2011)....................................................................17 Human Rights...............................................................................................................17 Emergence of Discontent ..............................................................................................18 Terrorism............................................................................................................................18 The Economy......................................................................................................................20 Foreign Relations................................................................................................................21 Israel and the Palestinians .............................................................................................21 Europe ..........................................................................................................................21 Regional Relations........................................................................................................22 Outlook.....................................................................................................................................22 Figures Figure 1. Map of Tunisia .............................................................................................................1 Tables Table 1. U.S. Aid to Tunisia.........................................................................................................9 Contacts Author Contact Information ......................................................................................................23 Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................23 Congressional Research Service Political Transition in Tunisia Recent Developments Tunisia’s “Jasmine Revolution” Figure 1. Map of Tunisia Tunisia has experienced continuing political uncertainty since longtime President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled the country on January 14, 2011 following several weeks of increasingly audacious anti-government protests.1 Since the start of the upheaval, dubbed the “Jasmine Revolution,” protesters have appeared to lack a central leader and are not necessarily aligned with an identifiable political or ideological movement. Tunisia’s future course remains uncertain. The uprising nonetheless appears to have inspired reform and opposition movements in Egypt, Yemen, Jordan, Algeria, and other countries. It has also sparked international concern over stability in a region associated with secure, autocratic, pro-Western regimes. The unexpected and rapid transition in Tunisia raises a wide range of questions for the future of the country and the region. Questions for U.S. policy include: • What has been the impact to-date of U.S. public statements and actions related to Tunisia? • What are the prospects for future U.S. influence on the evolution of events? • How, if at all, should the U.S. government reshape its assistance Source: Map Resources, adapted by CRS programs for Tunisia in response to recent and continuing events? • What position should the United States take vis-à-vis popular anti-government demonstrations in the region? • What course of U.S. action will be most likely to fulfill foreign policy and national security goals? 1 Ben Ali went to Saudi Arabia. France, which had been seen as a strong backer of the former president, signaled he was not welcome there, according to news reports. See Catherine Bremer, “Analysis-French Race to Adapt to New Maghreb Mood,” Reuters, January 17, 2011. Congressional Research Service 1 Political Transition in Tunisia On January 27, Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi announced a new interim cabinet, the second in ten days. The new cabinet includes only three members of the former ruling Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) party, all
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