Countering Militancy and Terrorism in Pakistan
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UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE www.usip.org SPECIAL REPORT 2301 Constitution Ave., NW • Washington, DC 20037 • 202.457.1700 • fax 202.429.6063 ABOUT THE REPORT Shuja Nawaz The need for an assessment of the National Internal Security Policy and subsequent National Action Plan of the government of Pakistan became evident as the heightened military action under Operation Zarb-e-Azb entered its second year. This report is based on conversations with civil and military officials and Countering Militancy and politicians inside Pakistan and on focus group sessions with leading civil and military thinkers, including retired officials, members of the media, and members of the police force. Much remains unclear due to the lack of transparency in operations Terrorism in Pakistan of both civil and military institutions and the absence of active parliamentary oversight or questioning of operations. A key element of the review was the ability of the military The Civil-Military Nexus and the civil government to work together effectively at both the federal and provincial levels. As a corollary to this, it was important to see the opportunity for the central government to assert its supremacy. This report focuses on the civil-military Summary nexus, especially in the context of the Apex Committees at • Pakistan resides in an unsettled and hostile neighborhood and faces an existential challenge the provincial level, and identifies areas that demand from domestic forces of sectarian and ethnic militancy and terrorism. attention if the National Action Plan is to succeed. • Many of Pakistan’s domestic problems are related to poor governance and the imbalance of power and operational ability between civil institutions and the military. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Shuja Nawaz is a Pakistani-born strategic analyst based • Shortsighted policies of successive civil and military governments and a dynastic political in Washington, DC. He was the founding director of the system have hobbled efforts to develop a strong, stable polity and economy. South Asia Center of the Atlantic Council, where he is now • Civil and political institutions remain weak and dysfunctional; a well-organized and disciplined a distinguished fellow. He writes for leading newspapers, military continues to dominate key strategic sectors related to foreign policy and security and journals, and websites and speaks on current issues before civic groups, at think tanks, and on radio and television currently retains control over the Afghan border region. worldwide. He has also advised and briefed senior • Recent military operations to clear the northern border regions abutting Afghanistan of terror- government and military officials and parliamentarians ist bases have had some success, but the effort inside Pakistan remains unfinished. in the United States, Europe, and Pakistan. • A well-defined objective and longer-term timetable are needed for the use of the paramilitary Rangers in Punjab and Sindh. Karachi may be the test for these efforts. © 2016 by the United States Institute of Peace. • Governance would be strengthened with better coordination and collaboration between civil All rights reserved. institutions and the military. SPECIAL REPORT 393 OCTOBER 2016 • Greater willingness by the military to bring civilians into their military campaign planning CONTENTS processes and to train and assist civil institutions (particularly the police force) in growing into their roles and responsibilities would bolster security. Introduction 2 Searching for a New Security Strategy 3 • The central government should establish a clearer vision and a process for decision making Drafting a New National Security Policy 4 related to antiterrorism and antimilitancy efforts; devote more resources to its security institu- A Forced Change 6 tions; and better organize its relationships with individual provinces. Who Calls the Shots? 8 • Parliament should play a more active role in defining and measuring the success of efforts to Provincial Apex Committees 9 counter terrorism and militancy. Recommendations and the Way Ahead 14 • Civil society must play a more active and informed role in this process. ABOUT THE INSTITUTE Introduction The United States Institute of Peace is an independent, nonpartisan institution established and funded by Congress. Pakistan’s battle against militancy and violent extremism will decide the future of this critically Its goals are to help prevent and resolve violent conflicts, placed country of two hundred million people, armed with nuclear weapons and situated in one promote postconflict peacebuilding, and increase conflict of the toughest neighborhoods in the world. Instability inside Pakistan not only has repercus- management tools, capacity, and intellectual capital sions for the country itself, but also affects major countries such as China, India, and Iran, as worldwide. The Institute does this by empowering others well as its western neighbor Afghanistan. The internal battle also has implications for Pakistan’s with knowledge, skills, and resources, as well as by its direct important and long-standing relationship with Saudi Arabia and the United States. Over the involvement in conflict zones around the globe. past two years, Pakistan carried out a widely publicized battle against the forces of militancy and terrorism, led primarily by the military in the border areas adjoining Afghanistan. Other BOarD OF DIRECTOrs operations in Karachi (see Box 1, Karachi) and limited efforts in Punjab have been launched as Stephen J. Hadley (Chair), Principal, RiceHadleyGates, LLC, well. Both civil and military leaders have periodically proclaimed a civil-military nexus in this Washington, DC • George E. Moose (Vice Chair), Adjunct Professor of Practice, The George Washington University, Wash- ington, DC • Judy Ansley, Former Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Adviser under George W. Bush, Wash- ington, DC • Eric Edelman, Hertog Distinguished Practitioner Karachi: The Litmus Test in Residence, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Washington, DC • Joseph Eldridge, University Chaplain The balance and collaboration between the civil institutions and the military in fighting militancy and terrorism is being tested most publicly in Karachi, the largest city of Pakistan with a population approaching twenty-five milliona and a and Senior Adjunct Professorial Lecturer, School of International microcosm of Pakistan at large. Karachi is the gateway for Pakistan’s economy and the location of the headquarters of its Service, American University, Washington, DC • Kerry Kennedy, major enterprises. It is also a battleground for different political parties seeking funding through legal and illegal means, President, Robert F. Kennedy Center for Justice and Human often through their militant wings. The military believes that there is a nexus between this corruption and terrorism and Rights, Washington, DC • Ikram U. Khan, President, Quality Care has tried to assert control over this megacity while working with a recalcitrant provincial leadership. Consultants, LLC., Las Vegas, NV • Stephen D. Krasner, Graham Soon after taking office, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited Karachi to put his own imprimatur on the shape of the H. Stuart Professor of International Relations at Stanford campaign that he entrusted to the military.b The provincial government, led by the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), holds c University, Palo Alto, CA • John A. Lancaster, Former Executive constitutional authority to request the federally controlled Sindh Rangers to help restore order in the city. On the surface, a delicate balance is being maintained.d But, as on the national level, this is empty rhetoric. The Rangers see Director, International Council on Independent Living, Potsdam, their task as not only providing temporary safety for the citizens of Karachi, but also to remove the sources of militancy NY • Jeremy A. Rabkin, Professor of Law, George Mason and terror, including the removal of political sponsors of militant groups. University, Fairfax, VA • J. Robinson West, Chairman, PFC In interviews, Karachi Corps Commander Lt. Gen. Naveed Mukhtar denied that the military is seeking to remove the Energy, Washington, DC • Nancy Zirkin, Executive Vice individual leaders of political parties.e But the military has brought corruption charges linked to terrorism against President, Leadership Conference on Civil and government officials and political leaders in the provincial government—most prominently, former PPP minister Dr. Asim Human Rights, Washington, DC Hussain—who are accused of funding the activities of militant wings of their parties. The military also put a stop to Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) chief Altaf Hussain’s regular telephonic broadcasts from London to mass gatherings of his followers. This has restricted the MQM’s ability to operate in the public space. The central government of Prime Minister Sharif might welcome the removal of its rivals but also secretly fears the enhanced power of the military if it MEMBERS EX OFFICIO succeeds in this aim. John Kerry, Secretary of State • Ashton Carter, Secretary of Defense • Gregg F. Martin, Major General, U.S. Army; President, The director general of the Rangers, Major General Bilal Akbar, believes that Karachi needs a “permanent, formal system” of policing that is both “modern and professional.” In the meantime, he sees the Rangers filling the gap for the civil National Defense University • Nancy Lindborg, President, authorities.f Senior