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Lecture Misinformation Quote of the Day: “A lie will go round the world while truth is pulling its boots on.” -- Baptist preacher Charles H. Spurgeon, 1859 Please fill out the course evaluations: https://uw.iasystem.org/survey/233006 Questions on the final paper Readings for next time Today’s class: misinformation and conspiracy theories Some definitions of fake news: • any piece of information Donald Trump dislikes more seriously: • “a type of yellow journalism or propaganda that consists of deliberate disinformation or hoaxes spread via traditional news media (print and broadcast) or online social media.” disinformation: “false information which is intended to mislead, especially propaganda issued by a government organization to a rival power or the media” misinformation: “false or inaccurate information, especially that which is deliberately intended to deceive” Some findings of recent research on fake news, disinformation, and misinformation • False news stories are 70% more likely to be retweeted than true news stories. The false ones get people’s attention (by design). • Some people inadvertently spread fake news by saying it’s false and linking to it. • Much of the fake news from the 2016 election originated in small-time operators in Macedonia trying to make money (get clicks, sell advertising). • However, Russian intelligence agencies were also active (Kate Starbird’s research). The agencies created fake Black Lives Matter activists and Blue Lives Matter activists, among other profiles. A quick guide to spotting fake news, from the Freedom Forum Institute: https://www.freedomforuminstitute.org/first-amendment- center/primers/fake-news-primer/ Fact checking sites are also essential for identifying fake news. https://guides.lib.berkeley.edu/c.php?g=620677&p=4333407 Now on to conspiracies and conspiracy theories. conspiracy: an evil, unlawful, and/or treacherous plan formulated in secret by two or more persons some famous conspiracies relevant to American history: • Watergate • 9/11 (official explanation) • Iran-Contra affair • 1919 World Series (Black Sox scandal) • Project MKUltra • Lincoln assassination • Black Hand of Serbia conspiracy theory: an attempt to explain an illegal or harmful event or situation as the result of a covert plot that experts, the government, and the general public either don’t know about or don’t believe Note that the difference between a conspiracy and a conspiracy theory is the level of support. A conspiracy theory is, in effect, an allegation of a conspiracy. some prominent conspiracy theories from American/Western history: • Jews poison wells and consume the blood of Christian children (Middle Ages) • Jews are plotting to take over the world (19th and 20th centuries) • Illuminati / New World Order • the government fluoridates water for nefarious purposes • JFK assassination • Princess Diana’s death was not an accident • moon landing was a hoax / flat earth • Elvis is still alive • chemtrails • Holocaust never happened or is massively exaggerated • Osama Bin Laden is still alive • Roswell UFO landing and government cover-up • CIA intentionally spread AIDS or crack cocaine • 9/11 was an inside job • Parkland shootings were faked, and the students were crisis actors • Pizzagate • QAnon How many Americans believe in various conspiracy theories? • More than one person was involved in assassinating JFK: 59% • New World Order: 28% • Princess Diana’s death was planned in advance: 26% • Roswell UFO crash and cover-up: 21% • CIA distributed crack to inner cities: 14% • US government knowingly allowed 9/11: 11% • government adds fluoride to water for sinister reasons: 9% • moon landing was faked: 7% • Bin Laden is still alive: 6% • Chemtrails: 5% • Holocaust didn’t happen: 4% The rise of the Internet appears to have made it easier for conspiracy theories to spread. We can pull together some of the themes of this course by examining conspiracy theories. where conspiracy theories go wrong: • Confirmation bias and motivated reasoning • Not following Occam’s Razor • Failing to consider how hard it is to pull off a conspiracy, especially as it gets bigger • Constructing a non-falsifiable explanation, where contrary evidence is construed as proof of the conspiracy • Overestimating unity within and between the institutions of government, business, science, and the media • Failing to consider the convergence of evidence, emphasizing instead actual or perceived anomalies Misinformation and conspiracy theories about the 2020 election Seemingly new charges every day. Keeping up with them is a game of whack-a-mole. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disputes_surrounding_the_ 2020_United_States_presidential_election_results https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post- election_lawsuits_related_to_the_2020_United_States_ presidential_election Jennifer Whitson and Adam Galinsky, “Lacking Control Increases Illusory Pattern Perception” • Experimental study (others below use observational data) • Used two means to make people (relative to a control group) feel like they lack control in a situation: arbitrary feedback from a test on a computer, and recalling a time in their life when they lacked control • Lacking control made people more likely to fall for the clustering illusion, adopt a superstitious belief, and interpret an ambiguous event as a conspiracy. When lacking control, people search for patterns—which they potentially could alter. Studies based on observational data find that the strongest predictor of belief in any particular conspiracy theory is the belief in other conspiracy theories. Research has found many other predictors of believing conspiracy theories. Note how many are consistent with Whitson and Galinsky’s findings about lacking control. • isolation from a larger community • feelings of powerlessness • low social trust • high but not clinical levels of paranoia • finding a small but supportive community • need for uniqueness, to be in the special group that has the truth • economic insecurity • political cynicism • paranormal beliefs • projection/Machiavellian character traits (“I would do the same thing if I had the chance”) • external locus of control • people whose party is out of power One study (“Dead and Alive”) found positive correlations in the extent of agreement with contradictory conspiracies: • Osama Bin Laden is still alive • Osama Bin Laden was already dead when U.S. special forces raided his compound • Princess Diana faked her own death • Princess Diana was murdered Although surprising at first, these positive correlations can be explained by their roots in deeper processes of conspiratorial thinking..
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