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Tysons and the Silver Line: Threat Or Benefit?

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Tysons and the Silver Line: Threat Or Benefit? ARLINGTON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, RESEARCH PAPER JANUARY 2012 TYSONS AND THE SILVER LINE: THREAT OR BENEFIT? What impact will the construction of the Silver Line and the redevelopment of Tysons Corner have on the Arlington economy? Our world is about to change to some degree as Fairfax County becomes a Metro- based market with stations in Tysons and Reston opening in 2013. Competition in the office market from the west is not new, however it is likely to intensify as Tysons becomes a valid choice for companies and agencies seeking a Metro location along with a substantial supply of new office buildings that will soon become available. Is this a threat to Arlington or are some impacts positive? To answer this question, feet in Tysons. Of course let’s add some analysis the Silver Line will also and start by looking at the connect Reston and Hern- office market. Since 1980 don to Metro with another the development of new 29.8 million square feet of office space in Tysons has office space resulting in been nearly equivalent to a Silver Line office base the amount of space devel- larger than Arlington’s. oped in Arlington’s urban Arlington’s share of the villages – 24.1 million Northern Virginia new square feet in Tysons vs. Photo courtesy of Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project construction market has 2 7.5 million square feet in been relatively consistent Metro towers dot the landscape in Tysons Corner. Arlington (Table 1). Over- ranging from 9.1 to 6.3 all, the Arlington urban percent. Tysons’ share has market for leased space is slightly bigger at 37.2 consistently declined each decade from 8.5 percent million square feet compared to 28.3 million square in the 1980s to an average of 5.3 percent over the Table 1: Office Construction 1980-2011 Arlington and Tysons Corner SQUARE FEET OF NEW CONSTRUCTION Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor Jefferson Davis Corridor Tysons Corner Washington Metro Period Sq Ft % Metro Sq Ft % Metro Sq Ft % Metro Sq Ft % Metro 1980-1990 8,901,705 5.3% 6,410,358 3.8% 14,266,734 8.5% 168,258,530 100.0% 1991-2000 3,972,728 6.7% - 0.0% 3,944,016 6.6% 59,712,715 100.0% 2001-2010 4,883,179 5.2% 1,031,568 1.1% 4,923,286 5.3% 93,718,582 100.0% 2007-2011 1,867,666 5.3% 409,744 1.2% 966,739 2.7% 35,246,340 100.0% Subtotal 19,625,278 5.5% 7,851,670 2.2% 24,100,775 6.8% 356,936,167 100.0% 2011 Base 24,039,960 5.1% 13,248,075 2.8% 28,348,193 6.0% 470,642,204 100.0% SOURCE: CoStar 1 ARLINGTON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, RESEARCH PAPER JANUARY 2012 Table 2: Job Projections (2005-2030) Regional Analysis also pro- Arlington and Tysons Corner jected substantial job growth in Arlington, with some Rosslyn-Ballston Jefferson Davis Tysons Washington 46,640 net new jobs to be Corridor Corridor Corner Metro 2005 Jobs 80,963 41,435 92,603 3,050,600 added between 2010 and 2030 2030 Jobs 115,961 68,365 143,036 4,236,900 and job growth rates equiva- lent in Arlington and Fairfax 2 # Change 34,998 26,930 50,433 1,186,300 Counties. COG projects Ty- Regional Share 3.0% 2.3% 4.3% 100.0% sons to capture 4.3 percent of the region’s job growth while SOURCE: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments Arlington’s share would be 5.3 percent. Based on these and 2001-2010 period. During the recession of 2007 – our own projections, Arlington should be expected 2011 Arlington captured 7.7 percent of the regional to maintain its historic share of new office develop- market while Tysons was down to 2.7 percent. ment for the next 20 years of slightly more than 6 Arlington’s market share could change somewhat percent. The County has the capacity to develop the over the next decade as it looks like the County office space to do so. will face some formidable competition for office development and absorption from the west. How Development capacity and market share are only competitive will Arlington be in the future? One two elements of competitiveness, taxes is a third. thing to keep in mind is that supply does not beget Assuming that new Class A buildings in Tysons demand, which will only increase with job growth. will be valued similarly to those to be developed in Arlington, Arlington’s tax burden is comparable Office space demand is predicated on job growth or lower than that in Tysons (Table 3). Taxes per and the regional projections suggest that Arlington square foot in Rosslyn are $5.94 compared to $5.71 will outperform Tysons over the next two decades. in Tysons. This is entirely due to the Business The Council of Governments (COG) Table 3: Costs of Office Occupancy1 cooperative forecasts Arlington and Tysons Corner indicate that between COST PER RSF 2005 and 2030, the Rosslyn Crystal City Ballston Tysons Average Rosslyn-Ballston Costs Typically Included in Full-Service Rent Corridor and Crystal Real Property Tax $4.76 $2.94 $3.37 $4.60 $3.92 City combined will Business Improvement District (BID) Tax 0.44 0.15 0.18 - 0.19 see an additional Transportation District Tax 0.69 0.43 0.49 0.88 0.62 61,900 new jobs Special District/Service Area Taxes - - - 0.19 0.05 compared to 50,400 Stormwater Management Fees 0.06 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 in Tysons (Table 2).1 Subtotal $5.94 $3.54 $4.07 $5.71 $4.82 A recent study by the 1 Costs typically included in full-service rent. GMU Center for SOURCE: RCLCO, Office Tenant Cost Burden, January 2010 1 Metropolitan Washington Regional Activity Centers and Clusters, April 2007, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. 2 Housing the Region’s Workforce by Lisa Sturtevant and Stephen S. Fuller, October 25, 2011, GMU School of Public Policy, Center for Regional Analysis. 2 ARLINGTON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, RESEARCH PAPER JANUARY 2012 Improvement District Tax which is cycled directly back into the neighborhood for increased business services. The tax burden is lower in both Ballston and Crystal City at $3.54 and $4.07 per square foot respectively according to a 2010 study conducted for Arlington by RCLCO. Arlington should retain an economic advantage over Tysons indefinitely. What about residential development? Arlington’s amazing office market growth has been supported by the addition of some 17,000 households located in the urban villages since 1990. The population Arlington’s “urban villages” provide ample amenities living in the urban villages is the primary target for to live, work and play within close proximity to it’s employers: it is young, educated and motivated; metro stations. the “Gold Standard” of the creative class.3 More than 90 percent of these households fit the “Metro of the Silver Line will place the Arlington urban Renter” psycho/demographic as relatively young, villages in the middle of the NOVA Metro-served highly educated, racially/ethnically diverse with markets, no longer at the end of the line; the good incomes. And, urban households will con- 17,000+ households in Tysons will soon have direct tinue to grow more in Arlington than in Tysons. For Metro access to Arlington employers. instance, the MWCOG projections show household growth from 2005 to 2030 of more than 22,600 What makes Arlington so competitive? Partly it is in Arlington’s Metro sub-markets compared to a 30 year head start. While Tysons is not starting 9,710 in Tysons. By 2030, Arlington’s urban vil- where the R-B Corridor was twenty years ago, it is lage households will number 51,300 compared to not now at parity with Arlington submarkets as a 17,590 in Tysons, nearly three times as many (Ta- quality urban environment. The urban villages have ble 4). Arlington will continue to have a huge labor levels of amenities and placemaking qualities that force advantage over Tysons and this advantage Tysons will be envying for the next two decades. will grow over the next two decades. The opening And Arlington keeps getting better. One useful measure of this difference is the development intensity Table 4: Household Projections (2005-2030) within the sub-markets. Arlington and Tysons Corner Rosslyn-Ballston Jefferson Davis Tysons Washington An AED study in 2009 com- Corridor Corridor Corner Metro pared development intensity, 2005 Households 19,661 9,024 7,879 1,871,300 the number of residents plus 2030 Households 36,417 14,888 17,589 2,531,300 employees per square mile of urbanized area, between urban # Change 16,765 14,888 9,710 660,000 activity centers in the metro Regional Share 2.5% 0.9% 1.5% 100.0% 4 area. By 2030, Rosslyn will SOURCE: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments be developed at an intensity 3 The Young and the Restless, December 2005, Joe Cortright for CEOs for Cities. 4 Urban Development Intensities in the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area, May 2007, Arlington Economic Development. 3 ARLINGTON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, RESEARCH PAPER JANUARY 2012 Table 5: Development Intensities tages based on development Arlington and Tysons Corner intensity and amenity levels alone, even after the Silver Ballston/ Crystal City/ Rosslyn Virginia Square Pentagon City Tysons Corner Line markets mature. Acres 302 534 646 2,412 Arlington’s locational Jobs Change (2005-2030) 14,717 13,608 26,930 50,433 advantages are especially Household Change 4,247 4,526 5,864 9,710 apparent when mapped.
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