A Profile of the Health & Well-being of

Glasgow’s Healthier Future Forum

30th November 2005

Preface

This document has been created as an accompaniment to a presentation at the 2nd Glasgow’s Healthier Future Forum (organised by the Glasgow Centre for Population Health (GCPH)) on November 30th, 2005. The data will be presented by David Walsh and Bruce Whyte of NHS Health as part of an ongoing collaboration with GCPH.

The presentation - and accompanying report - incorporates a small subset of a much broader collection of data which will be published in early 2006 as part of a descriptive report on the health and well-being of Glasgow and the West of Scotland. The data included within these pages, therefore, are not intended to be - and indeed could not be - comprehensive. They are merely illustrative examples of Glasgow’s health.

The theme of the presentation is an analysis of those health and well-being related factors in Glasgow which are improving, those which are worsening, and those which are proving resistant to change. Within that theme, the data are presented within the following ten topics relevant to health: the historical context, population dynamics, the economy, the social environment, the physical environment, behaviour, pregnancy & childbirth, children’s health, health & function, and illness & disease. An additional handful of charts showing projections for a few key health related indicators are also included.

Note: a number of the charts presented here are derived from analysis of the 2004 Community Health & Well-being Profiles produced by NHS Health Scotland. In these cases the data are presented at two geographical levels: ‘community’ (primary care-based localities with populations ranging from 20,000-140,000 people) and postcode sector (small areas with populations of around 3,000-5,000 on average). In both sets of charts, areas within Glasgow are shaded dark red and those elsewhere in the West of Scotland are shaded light blue.

A table of notes, definitions and sources is included at the back of this document (together with a list of abbreviations used). Further details of any of the data presented are available from David Walsh (email: [email protected]; tel: 0141 300 1015) or Bruce Whyte (email: [email protected]; tel: 0141 300 1016).

3 1a. HISTORICAL CONTEXT/POPULATION DYNAMICS – Births and deaths

Glasgow's Population; 1801-2004 Infant Deaths (under 1 year) per 1,000 births in Glasgow; 1855 - 2004 Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health (1898, 1925,1926,1972); Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health (1898, 1925,1926,1972); Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports (1973-2004) Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports (1973-2004) 250 1,200,000

196 1,000,000 200 hs t 800,000 150 1,000 bir

600,000

eaths per 100 Estimated Population 400,000 Infant D Local Gov Unitary Major city Districts Councils 50 extensions 200,000 introduced introduced

7.1

0

0 3 7 3 1 5 9 55 79 91 15 39 43 67 03 883 907 971 995 1801 1811 1821 1831 1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 18 1859 186 1867 1871 1875 18 1 188 18 1895 1899 1903 1 1911 19 1919 192 1927 1931 1935 19 19 1947 195 1955 1959 1963 19 1 197 1979 1983 1987 1991 1 199 20

Deaths and Births per 1,000 population in Glasgow; 1855 - 2004 Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health (1898, 1925,1926,1972); Summary points Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports (1973-2004) 45 • The population trend for Glasgow can be characterised

40 by three key phases: extraordinary population growth

35 from 1800 until the 1930s, a brief period of stability in

30 the 1940s and then decline over last 60 years.

25 • The dramatic reduction in the infant mortality rate

20 underlines the huge improvements in health protection,

15

Deaths per 1,000 population medical care, nutrition, sanitation and housing that have

10 been achieved over the last 150 years. Births per 1,000 population 5 Deaths per 1,000 population • The death rate now exceeds the birth rate, and without 0 inward migration the population will continue to fall. 5 0 5 0 5 5 0 0 5 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 6 6 7 7 80 85 90 9 0 05 1 1 20 25 30 3 4 4 5 5 60 65 7 7 8 8 9 95 00 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 18 1 1 18 1 1 18 18 18 1 1 19 1 1 19 19 19 1 19 1 1 1 19 19 1 1 19 1 1 20

4 1b. HISTORICAL CONTEXT/POPULATION DYNAMICS – Health inequalities 1901 and 2001

Death rates in Glasgow's Sanitary Districts; 1901 Death rates per 100,000 population, directly age standardised; 2000-2002; Source: Report of the Medical Officer of Health of the City of Glasgow 1901 West of Scotland and Glasgow communities Source: NHSHS - Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from GRO(S) data)

45 1200 40.4 40

1000 965

n 35 o i at 30 800 25

000 popul 20.6

1, 20 600

15 428 hs per 8.3

eat 400

D 10

5 200 0

l ill d n ll d il w e ill la e d e x n d s n e st st s d ide ida a to r h d h ge ton l r a lo o ton el al to e el 0 r e s ngo nhi o n si y oun s vi st i nds b l i ns o ssh h wood Ro r t k Ro rs y r a uar asgow i o l bu va dyf s h c ie C q s Ea W undas dden l l l v Fl r o t od ing Squa Rol owf e s a d ie d n le ld d e s n n d w l e e y w w n C Hil th h Ma on Squar r Go e D ownf n v o ide vi a ire u ire n ir ire d o le n o aw p d ge le ow o o u G nt ahou a G yt tei K Ro w St aur s t a a r l d h n t g y d l g g o Kel l r San Wo ennsi Exchan L Ande ch S los wc Br tl wo b e s sh a s sh rg t E sh rwe a cl ri a sg s s Bl d son re Bar o g l k e n wsh mo r mil s as e h r b V a a st ou St d on and W Clo Por co iln st th yr er e o yr wla he e l h c t l la ni Bel k and Bar an e n Co S a t Ki a A b L Ay A a t G Wi t ve a rn Gl G n an r M he t E M E s r fr h Ha u t um n t G e d nd a n tc And / Clyd th m n th st S W s Mo I ve s a h p r nd Lond St u a r R w Co e rn N an l u a St and C and en Ea Cu Re or E e d Dr & L te & s si H St gega d So N n go & s & D ove and D gbu d St st at a s h Ea k e d We n est ld aug s n ad i h ars e e a t n ri n Ea h ide o de and M ie gr i ng u a d a ut s et W h inh Po l Br igh St Be W Gr a Gl o ir y g gsi s v Hig l S eb A e So od s Spr nhe H d/ & l o rid d Bel us yd is l lok Kel ee lan ew b a /W B Lan e r s fr m Cl P ill G e n a h shi Pol ni C y k Re r lo An Ma Pol

Death rates per 100,000 population, directly age standardised; 2000-2002 Glasgow & West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest and 10 lowest rates Summary points Source: NHSHS - Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from GRO(S) data) 1600 • Inequalities in death rates across the city are not new. 1475 1400 In 1901 there was a five-fold variation in crude death 1200 rates across Glasgow’s sanitary districts and 40% of all 1000 deaths were among children under 5. 800

600 • 100 years later, while death rates are greatly reduced, the 350 400 age standardised mortality rate in Bridgeton and 200 Dennistoun is still more than double the rate in 0

d n rt n n x n d ll n lm on ck ch o rk m o N o rk a ill S ck on to o a to o t a r a h hi k o lt la co g st n c s s ha ad rt e c r t n k h rl u s Ib P ton a rn Anniesland, and . r n al a lla nh co at n P le he ie Ru il P Ca lma ssi C ug Ho in g sl w g ma S i e Cla mu o - B a rk Fu m l K r e ; L To a in K D t E Pa rgu H Da - Ca ; vi o nn n e a o Fe i e n g ftf K d o n rs yst Mil Cro • At a smaller area level - postcode sectors - there is a a e e B - K e vi a g n four-fold variation in the mortality rate. Mil

5 1c. HISTORICAL CONTEXT/POPULATION DYNAMICS – Life expectancy

Expected future years of life at birth by gender for Glasgow; 1821-27 to 2001-03 Male Life Expectancy at Birth (years); West of Scotland Council Areas vs. Scotland; Source: The Report of the Medical Officer for Health, Glasgow, 1925; ONS 2004 1991-1993 to 2001-2003 Source: Office for National Statistics

90 78

80 76.4 76

70 69.1 74 60 Gap between 52.2 best & worse = 8.1 years 50 72 Gap 48.4 between 37.7 best & worse 40 = 6.5 years 36.6 32.6

Life Expectancy at birth 70 34.1 35.2 30 30.9 Expected future years of life at birth 68 20

Males Females 10 66 1991-1993 1992-1994 1993-1995 1994-1996 1995-1997 1996-1998 1997-1999 1998-2000 1999-2001 2000-2002 2001-2003

0 Council 1821-27 1870-72 1881-90 1920-22 2001-2003 Scotland Glasgow City East Renfrewshire East

Life Expectancy vs Healthy Life Expectancy* at Birth, Males , 1999-2000 Source: ISD Scotland Summary points

80 • Life expectancy for both men and women has doubled

70 19.7 17.6 over the last 100 years. 19.2 20.2 17.8 20.8 19.2 60 25.8 19.6 h 24.9 22.5 t 21.8 • In recent years there has been a widening in the gap in 50

40 life expectancy - particularly for men - with males in pectancy at bir x 30 58.5 53.8 52.6 53.2 53.6 53.8 56.5 now likely to live 8 years longer 46.7 46.8 46.8 48.3 50.5 Life E 20 than their Glasgow counterparts. 10

0 • Expected years of ‘healthy life’ vary by 12 years across e e e e e e e e nd ty ir r ir de ire r r r r r la Ci ly h hi hi hi hi rsh sh c rs s shi s kshi y k ws ow ton er ews ar ton e West of Scotland councils and it is estimated that men Scot Ay r A r r sg t nar Inv h h Ayr n ar a a rt b L nba o La Gl Eas h Renf Renf t Du N Sout th Dun t t ou Nor s S st Eas and women experience on average over 20 years of life We Ea West of Scotland Council Area with a long-term illness or disability. HLE at birth Years of life with a LLI * defined as absence of Limiting Long-term Illness (LLI)

6 2. ECONOMY – children in workless households, unemployment, income support claimants, free school meals

% of dependent children living in households where no-one is in employment; 2001; Unemployment claimant count expressed as percentage of working age population - West of West of Scotland and Glasgow communities Scotland local authority areas, 1992-2004 Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from 2001 Census data) Source: NOMIS

60 14.0 Glasgow City 50 50 47 West 12.0 Dunbartonshire 40 37 33 33 33 29 East Ayrshire 28 10.0

30 n o 23 24 24 i

23 at 22 23 North Ayrshire 20 21 21 20 18 17 18 16 16 8.0 14 North 12 11 Renfrewshire

10 ng age popul 6 7 i k

r 6.0 o

w Scotland 0

l % of ie in e e e re d d re n re e d el w n 4.0 South Lanarkshire nd v v id ir i ul to de lley en aw i n ds ow la a el h dal h hi l ly a gl wel h idg gow gow ap go g tou wood g k lbr rs na mon rs c r er is rsh t E an h s s s ot t h i ws r V e y br wl las las la a s iln t K e des er Lo Ay e n W at es Sc a t y t Hami nv r oth A ha G G mc Gl nni Ea r nfr th Ay s I e h W t n u t G St as Cl umb v Ruth M rt Co S s South Ayrshire E & o ow ter Dr den/M Re C Ea N & Eas & De s st Sou e g ater as & We e & N n e nd Le ri as e E th id ear lang rd l ank 2.0 W y a s i G Gr outh ou e u A S eb S dgeto l d oods i East w & is y r land/B e /W B s fr Pa Cl ll Dunbartonshire e Camb hi y nni Ren East Renfrewshire A Mar 0.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

% of population 16+ claiming Income Support; West of Scotland Councils, 2001 - 2003 Primary school pupils entitled to free school meals, Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (originally from DWP) by West of Scotland local authority, 1997-2004 22 Source: Scottish Executive Education Department

20 19.4 Glasgow City 2001 2003 60.0 18 West Dunbartonshire 16 14.6 14.7 50.0 North Ayrshire 14 12.9 12.2 11.6 Inverclyde 12 11.2 11.2 10.4 40.0 10 9.4

8 Renfrewshire % of population 16+ 30.0 5.6 5.9 6 East Ayrshire

4 Scotland 20.0 2 South Lanarkshire

0 South Ayrshire y e e e e e e 10.0 nd t r ir ire ir re ir r re de r la h h hi hi hi ly s rsh s rsh s c nshi w w ks yr ks nshi East Renfrewshire to er to Scot gow Ci fre Ay re Ay A nar v as th nf anar th In l L ast r La nbar G Ren ou Re h E th East Dunbartonshire S No Du t Dunbar st t 0.0 Ea Sout Nor s Eas We 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

7 2. ECONOMY – continued

Summary points • The percentage of children living in workless households is a proxy measure for the proportion of children living in poverty. Across West of Scotland communities there is a wide variation in this measure: in Eastwood and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie, only 6-7% of children live in workless households, while in Bridgeton and Dennistoun the figure is 50%. • At a smaller area level the differences are even more pronounced. In the most deprived postcode sectors in Glasgow over 60% of children live in workless households, while in the more affluent sectors just 2-4% of children do so. • Unemployment has dropped over the last ten years across the whole of the West Scotland but differences in relative levels of unemployment remain e.g. East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire were and are lowest, while levels of unemployment remain relatively high in Glasgow and West Dunbartonshire. • The percentage of the population claiming Income Support is a measure of low income. In East Dunbartonshire 5.6% of the population over 16 was claiming Income Support in 2003, while in Glasgow the figure was 19.4%, nearly double the national average. • Glasgow stands out as having the highest proportion of primary school pupils eligible for free school meals. At 42%, this is double the national figure and around five times the rate of East Dunbartonshire, the local authority area with the lowest eligibility rate across the West of Scotland. • The proportion of eligible pupils has fallen very slightly across all Scotland from 24% in 1997 to the current figure of 21%. Glasgow has experienced a similarly small decrease over the 8 year period – down from 46% in 1997.

8 3a. SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT – Lone parent households

Lone parent households with dependent children, Lone parent households with dependent children Glasgow & West of Scotland communities, 2001 Glasgow & West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest, and lowest, rates, 2001 Source: 2001 Census Source: 2001 Census

60.0 80.0 n n e 53 e r 70 r d l d 49 l 70.0 50.0

chi 61 61 62 62

chi 61 59 59 59 59 41 60.0 40 40.0 37 37 34 50.0 31 dependent

30 dependent h 29 30 t

29 h i 30.0 28 28 28 t 26 i 40.0 25 24 25 22 ds w 21 22 20 20 ds w 20.0 18 30.0 25 13 14 20.0 househol l househol

10.0 l 9 10 10 al 8 9 9 9 al 8 8 8 10.0 6 % of 0.0 % of 0.0 d e n e e e e d n ll e e y s d n nd o i de ir ir r nd l o w ge e r d e en n w w u lvi i lt a l nd ow o d n t k r n E n s ill S d tla o av r h hi o i id w hi ly gl E g g gow o o o er ck ny ar on tu ck a tw lb rsh s s nau m ish s c la t s s hapel st and n ec ui lk v NE s lng hke esdal y w om r tbr her w s la la lasgo c as l no hc r nock lla on E no i rbal l hea d Ki re L W a t Ayr ver n Val ther e nni ot wo ngt add ff rdi t kst u use W r m o ltonh ead Sco Mi rat y t Ayr be Ha o o n u G G G um Gl w si C a mb ar ar Go i pe Ea th A m M th I er Sha W n r N Sc o Gi Ca l m D len Fr o ma tle G m kh n/ St Cl enf u C r R w st D De H lm C l h idget l s East R r o ter e & Kes N; Du Ki G er a cha Town Eas C No Lev te g & Ki Br D on; Ha Par sde Sou st ie & a s e - - lage; Ca um r e r e a h East h W id on n ggs l d and ang & Eas ut e ri n East Dr W r sl Gr Gl ank & et /Bea Ai So b d Vi adest & ey bu Sout e oods idg rsd opb rsde Tr isl d a and ew m /W Br sh naul r a Cly ill Be Bea r esl Pa C Bi nf yh be Re r m Anni Ma Cu

Summary points • Lone parent households with dependent children make up 25% of all families with dependent children nationally. • The proportion of lone parent households varies widely across Scotland, from 13% - 14% in Eastwood and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie, up to 40% and above in other parts of the conurbation ( & Drumchapel, Maryhill/ Woodside & North Glasgow, Bridgeton & Dennistoun). • At the smaller area level (postcode sectors), even wider variations are apparent with less than 10% of families having a lone parent in mainly affluent parts of the West of Scotland compared to 60% and above in some of the more deprived parts of Glasgow.

9 3b. SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT – Education

Estimated new student participation rates in Higher Education, Trends in (estimated) new student participation rates in Higher Education, West of Scotland and Glasgow communities, 2001/02 - 2003/04 (annual average rate) Selected West of Scotand communities, 1998/00 - 2001/03 (annual average rates) Source: HESA Source: HESA n o

i 80 80% Eastwood at 70 70 65 Anniesland, 70% Bearsden and 60 100 popul Milngavie Scotland 50 47 60%

es per 44 t s a

40 e 38 t West of Scotland 40 34 34 34 35 36 36 a on r i 31 32 50% 30 on r

30 i at 29 29 30

p 27 i 30 Inverclyde pat c 23 24 i ci t

21 i 19 t 20 17 40%

par 15 12 par 10 udent udent 30% Eastern Glasgow st st w 0 w e e N N d e ll e e e n e e e d e e ld re d w en r ey o d r ds r n in 20% Bridgeton and an oun dg w hi o l ll lt ond ri hi lv ood l i au ly g g shi i b s an shi e avi sgow hapel st ishaw br er n rs c s Va sdal m m l l r t E k g tw Dennistoun a c lasgow lasgow t h er y la her Ki n W a ver G t Ayr n de Lo rew es th il Scot .Gl um G enni G ot b t A n u ly Ha Ay W ra M Eas N n Co M m I th er C nf Shaw h t / Dr est D R r e r S n/ d er Cu Eas East R ow South West ide W nd East No Lev t te Sout g de nd an a h and s s 10% a h East e es ea la ar Glasgow n i ut and oods nk o dr o ang W Gr G Be Sout et ir S l ey d W ba g A l 'd/ ill/ e id s an Clydebank and d bus esl 'yh ly Br m Pai C a rew 0% Drumchapel M C Anni enf R 1998/00 1999/01 2000/02 2001/03

Summary points • The new student participation rates are estimates based on the number of Scottish domicile, full-time, first degree, first year students aged 20 and younger. The figures are averaged over a three year period (2001/02-2003/04) and expressed as a percentage of the population aged 17 at the 2001 Census. These rates represent a rough proxy for annual new student participation rates but their accuracy is uncertain. • Across West of Scotland communities there is a wide range in new student participation rates. In Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie and in Eastwood new student participation rates are estimated to be high (65-70%) compared to the national average of 34%, while in four communities in Glasgow participation rates are estimated to be below 20%. • Trends in new student participation rates have risen in recent years across Scotland. However, these increases have not been dramatic and the gap between areas with high and low participation levels remains wide.

10 3c. SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT – Crime

Crime rates (selected categories), Glasgow City, 1997-2003 Fear of Crime - percentage of respondents stating they don’t feel safe walking in their Source: Scottish Executive neighbourhood alone after dark, West of Scotland council areas, 2003-04 350 Source: Scottish Household Survey

40% 300 35.6% 35% 32.9% 33.3% Fire-raising,vandalism etc 32.4% 30.5% 250 30% 28.6%

n 26.5% o i 24.0% at 25% 22.8% 21.7% 200 Drug Related Crime 20.1% 20% 17.0% 000 popul 15% 10, 150 per e

t 10% a Serious Violent Crime R 100 5%

0% 50 ity ire Domestic Housebreaking hire hire hire shire rclyde Scotland Ayrsh nfrews narkshire artons Inve Glasgow C La Renfrewshire umbartonshire East Ayrshire North Ayrs 0 South East Re South North Lanark 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 East D West Dumb

Violent offenders per 1,000 population, Glasgow City, July 2002 - June 2005 Victims of violent crime per 1,000 population, Glasgow City, July 2002 - June 2005 Datazones with 10 highest rates vs. datazones with 10 lowest rates (over 3 years) Datazones with 10 highest rates vs. datazones with 10 lowest rates (over 3 years) Source: Violence Reduction Unit, Police Source: Violence Reduction Unit, Strathclyde Police

120 180 168

100 160 100 142 144 139 88 140 129 78 121 123 80 76 77 118 119 120 72 72 120 66 67 68

1000 population 100 60 per s 80

40 60 olent offender Victims per 1000 population i

V 20 40

1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 20 10 11 7 8 9 9999 0 5 0 ill ill ill k s rn rk n ill n n n ie s n n rk n h ds ic d h a to le o on o a to n nh nh n rt n u l sl st s a a a yb Pa ksto ow yg rst y yst g ill d k k s rt n n s s d wla Pa wla ia o r Gov Ca r shaw n r d nd nd ws ws ir ir en r rd rd r een k Ro Ro od P h a ock ar n ca tick slie l ton o Ha o ro ar To nde o Kin P la r la rsto ston a a g s Jo J Jo Ne Ne t C G Qu llo A an ll Pa d th d y en ysto wla wla ry g d ndl unn e ia wla Pa de e ksh ksh Vic Po or Ca Ro Ro Co Co To Kin htsw J Hy rm w tor Ne Hyn Hyn Qu llo llo ig a x ic An o Po P Kn C Ma V Location of datazone (named after relevant electoral ward) Location of datazone (named after relevant electoral ward)

11 3c. SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT – Crime continued

Summary Points • Trends in the rate of overall crime emphasise that recorded crime levels in Glasgow have been at least 50% higher than the Scottish average in recent years. • The trend in different types of crime varies. ‘Fire-raising, vandalism, etc.’, drug related crime and serious violent crime have all become more prevalent, while domestic housebreaking and motor vehicle related crimes (not graphed) have decreased. • Glasgow has the highest levels of recorded violent crime in Scotland. Prevalence of offending is geographically and socially patterned. Violent offenders tend to come from deprived parts of the city, and in one ‘data zone’ (small geographical areas with average populations of 750 people), one in ten of the population has been recorded as a violent offender in the last three years. • Areas with the highest proportion of victims also tend to have the highest proportion of offenders. In a number of small areas (data zones) in Glasgow, more than one in ten people have been the victim of a violent crime in the last three years. • The profiles of victims and offenders are very similar: they are likely to live in more deprived communities, to be male and to be young. The peak ages for being an offender or a victim are the mid teenage years to early twenties. • Fear of crime: survey estimates suggest that a third of the Glasgow residents are afraid of walking alone in their neighbourhood after dark.

12 4. PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT – Overcrowding, house condition, proximity to derelict land

Proportion of households classed as overcrowded, Estimated numbers of properties with damp, condensation, West of Scotland and Glasgow Communities, 2001 mould, poor National Home Energy Rating (NHER), 2002 Source: Census/NHSHS Community profiles Source: SHCS

35.0 45000 41,000 30.0 29 40000 39,000 26 25.0 21 22 22 35000 21 20.0 19 16 17 30000 s

15 e 15 15 i 27,000

14 t 15.0 14 14 12 12 25000 10 oper % of households 9 9 10 10 10 22,500 10.0 8 9 pr 7 6 of 20000 5.0 mber u

N 15000 0.0

l l d ie e n le e ld e e n y l w s w w n o ir ide vi r r ir nd le on le e a de ge o u land h r l hi hi h o g ilt l w h ly id nd go End gow g o 10000 t wo rs lb e s nau s s a s hape la t s s st st ngav y hk w om m V rc tbr c as la la lasgow il Ki desda er Ayr e L ther a ther Wi e a es Sco at y b r u H rn o v o Gl G G G nni Ea M h A r l h Ayr t e In rum t W n St C rt m enf R M C Shaw N De East & D r es ow er No Cu Eas R e st & sden/ Sout ie & at W g e & 5000 st ng r h s h East id on e a d e t la Ea ut s W l r ank & G et Bear s y and Lev Ai b Gr & u e e Sou So idg b sl d ood and/ ew ly /W Br r am Pai C ill 0 esl nf C h e R ry Anni Ma Rising/penetrating damp Poor NHER Condensation Mould

Proximity to Derelict Sites; % of people within 0-500m of any derelict site, 2004 West of Scotland Councils & Scotland Summary points Source: SNS (original source: Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey) • Although overcrowding has reduced substantially in the 70 64.3 last twenty years, there are still areas where significant 60 57 proportions of the population live in cramped dwellings. 51.2 50 • Similarly, despite improvements, significant numbers of 40 33.8 properties in Greater Glasgow still suffer from rising 30.7 31.9 30 27.4 24.8 25 25.9 damp, poor heating efficiency, condensation and mould. 21.9 22.7 20 • Over 50% of residents of North Lanarkshire, Glasgow 10 and West Dunbartonshire live in proximity to derelict

0

y e e e e e e e land – ‘a source of potential negative environmental nd t r ire ir r ir d re ire ir ir a hi h hi h y hi h h sh cl sh otl rs k rs ws r ws rs k ns ow Ci y y e e y r Sc g tons A ar e rto s ar t h A fr h A a b an nfr Inv t ana Gl n out Re nba u Eas th L Ren Nor th L impact’. S st t D ou t Du a Nor s S E e Eas W

13 5a. BEHAVIOUR - Alcohol

Numbers of alcohol related deaths, NHS Greater Glasgow, 1980-2003 Alcohol related & attributable hospital admissions Principal ("underlying") and secondary ("contributing") causes of death by Glasgow "community", age-standardised rates, 1990/92 - 1999/01 Source: GRO(S) Source: ISD Scotland/NHS Health Scotland

600 3,000.0 Bridgeton & Dennistoun

Maryhill/Woodside & N 500 Glasgow 2,500.0 South West Glasgow

South East Glasgow 400 000 pop

hs 2,000.0 Eastern Glasgow 100,

deat Cambuslang & Rutherglen per

of 300 e t a 1,500.0 Clydebank & Drumchapel mber u sed r N i

200 d Greater Shawlands 1,000.0 Glasgow West End andar e st

100 g Scotland A 500.0

0 Eastwood 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 0.0 Anniesl'd/Bearsdn/Milngavie 1990 - 1992 1993 - 1995 1996 - 1998 1999 - 2001 Male Female Total

Alcohol related & attributable hospital admissions for West of Scotland small areas (with Liver cirrhosis mortality, age standardised rates among men aged 15-74 years lowest & highest rates in 1999/2001), age-standardised rates, 1990/92 - 1999/01 Scotland in context of maximum, minimum, and Source: ISD Scotland/NHS Health Scotland mean rates for 16 Western European countries 4,500.0 Townhead Source: WHOSIS (Dec 2004) Ayr - Harbour and W Town Centre 4,000.0 Tradeston; Gorbals 100 ICD 6/7: A105 Dalmarnock ICD8: A102 Hamiltonhill ICD9: B347 3,500.0 ICD10: K70, K73, K74 Bridgeton E 80 Ibrox 000 pop 3,000.0 Govan Greater Glasgow Easterhouse W 60

per 100, 2,500.0 Ferguslie Park e Scotland 2,000.0 Clarkston

sed rat Maximum Hyndland; Dowanhill 40 Lugton; Dunlop 1,500.0 andardi Bearsden - Kessington e st Rate per 100.000 population per year

g Houston Mean 20 A 1,000.0 Milngavie - Keystone; Dougalston

Kilmacolm Minimum 500.0 Cathcart 0 Bearsden - Kilmardinny 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 0.0 Broom; Kirkhill; Mearns Year of death 1990 - 1992 1993 - 1995 1996 - 1998 1999 - 2001

14 5b. BEHAVIOUR – Smoking, sexual health, obesity, travel

Percentage of adults smoking, 1999/00 - 2003/04 Acute Sexually Transmitted Infection Rates, Greater Glasgow & Scotland Source: Scottish Household Survey Source: ISD Scotland 40

900.0

35

800.0 30 s d l o -

25 700.0 64 year

20

000 15- 600.0 100, 15 per e t

a 500.0

10 ude r r C Glasgow City 400.0 Greater Glasgow 5 Scotland Scotland

0 300.0 1999/2000 2001/2002 2003/2004 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

% of adults classed as obese (BMI>30), Greater Glasgow, 1995 & 2003 Travel to work/study by bicycle/foot and car, 2001 Source: Scottish Health Surveys Source: 2001 Census

30 Males Females 70 NB The relative differences between the 1995 bike/foot car 61 60 and 2003 figures should be interpreted with 58 59 59 59 60 56 57 25 caution, given the different age groupings used 23.9 54 55

(16-64 in 1995, 16+ in 2003) and other possible ng* 52 methodological discrepancies. 21.5 50 udyi st 20 40 ng/ i

k 40 r 16.4 o

14.8 on w 28

i 30 15 25 at 23 23 21 22 20 19 20 20 19 20 popul 15

10 % of 10

0 5 y e e e e e e e e e e nd r r d r r r ir ir ir r a hi hi hi hi l s ly s s h sh sh s ot w Cit rc kshi r n o onshi e w y rks o w Sc g rt v re a rt re s a h Ayr f t A h Ayr a a b t In n s b nf l n r Lan n e G u Re h Lanar Ea th R No rt Sout Du 0 t D o ou s N S East 1995 (ages 16-64) 2003 (ages 16+) We East

* Excludes those working/studying at home

15 5. BEHAVIOUR – continued

Summary points • The number of alcohol related deaths in the Greater Glasgow area remained reasonably constant throughout the 1980s, but increased strikingly in the subsequent decade – an almost four-fold increase in numbers was evident between 1991 and 2002. Although the majority of deaths were among males, female alcohol related mortality also increased notably over the period shown. • In 1980 alcohol related deaths in Greater Glasgow accounted for just 2% of all male deaths in the area, and 4.6% of all male premature (age <65) deaths. By 2003, these figures had risen to 7% and 17% respectively. • Similar increases in alcohol related & attributable acute hospitalisations have taken place since the beginning of the 1990s. Nationally, hospitalisations increased by almost 50% between 1990-1992 and 1999-2001, and this rate of increase is generally matched, and in some cases exceeded, by that of the Glasgow ‘communities’. At a small area level, differences in rates of increase between areas in Glasgow and the West of Scotland with the lowest rates of hospitalisation, and those with the highest, are even more striking. • In a European context, cirrhosis mortality rates in Greater Glasgow in the 1970s and 1980s were consistently at, or below, the European average; between 1990 and 2001, however, the rate of mortality increased sharply to being far in excess of both the European average and maximum values (at a national level). • No long-term trend in smoking prevalence in Glasgow is available. The current prevalence rate of 33% (from the 2003/04 Scottish Household Survey) exceeds the national figure of 27%, but has fallen very slightly since the 1990/2000 survey. • Rates of acute sexually transmitted infections have increased markedly in both Scotland and the Greater Glasgow area in recent years. However, rates have risen faster in Greater Glasgow (93% rise between 1996 and 2004) than has been the case nationally (71% increase), although this may reflect higher levels of screening in the Glasgow area. • Levels of obesity in Greater Glasgow have been rising. Data from the 2003 Scottish Health Survey estimate that more than one fifth of males (21.5%), and almost a quarter of females (24%), are now classified as obese. • In Glasgow, considerably fewer individuals travel to work/study by car than is the case nationally (40% compared to the Scotland figure of 54%), and more regularly commute on foot or by bicycle. However (not shown here), car ownership in Glasgow is rising, and future projections (see section 10) show arguably unsustainable increases in traffic volume.

16 6a. PREGNANCY & CHILDBIRTH – Smoking during pregnancy

% Maternal smoking at hospital booking, % Maternal smoking at hospital booking, 2000-2002 Glasgow & West of Scotland communities 2000-02 Glasgow/West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest and 10 lowest rates Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles 2004 (from ISD Scotland data) Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles 2004 (from ISD data) 70 50 62 60 54 55 45 43 50 50 50 50 51 51 51 39 40 38 50 36 33 34 35 32 32 40 30 30 31 29 29 29 30 27 27 27 28 25 25 25 30 27 25 23 21 21 19 20 20 16 15 7 7 7 10 5 7 4 4 4 5 5 10 9 0 5 n k k n y n h s S ill x e nd on c lm a o o W W W N 0 a to o o to t sh r e ley NE l s n noc c ls w loc arn od t Ib s ilk el nile ad l ot rk ingt ff n ar u e l s ga ous Me wo Ni m ap Pe Faif he p d ie in e re d e e n n w re l e y re w w w s Gi lma u Allo H B s o e a o v lv id nd ir de e to g le a un Sc Cla ; - h tl ch rk land nds r hi aul o h ly End gl il hi we id hi h o gow e rmu Ki o ill; ht s ch t wo la ke lb s n sdal rs t s r rs s st hapel ot ie h ter m o st nga h w om y rc m lasgo tbr Val lasgo lasgo as c - K D o k ig s Pa m il t Ki e L de e es ther the n Ay Wi Ca f Ca Sc a r ber ly v u Ha G t Ayr G Gl m n e; av Ea /M r nf m h A In W er h n G enni ru e n Kn Ea Dru Shaw St e u C R Mo Coa v rt st D N o oon ng Kir Dru r East ow o er e & D d t e R C Eas Le N t & D m; sden at Sout sg ie & d W n e ys Mil e est h East r h o id ars e la ang & ut d an Eas t nk & roo Gr W G sl r ut e a Be K /Bear u So Ai g - B & ley So id oods e w s ydeb i and e mb Br /W l v r a ill C esl C Pai ga enf yh R r ln Anni Ma Mi

% Maternal smoking at hospital booking, 1995-2004* % Maternal smoking at booking by deprivation, NHS Greater Glasgow 1995-2004* Source: ISD Scotland Source: ISD Scotland

35.0 50.0

Scotland Greater Glasgow 45.0 30.0 Deprivation 40.0 Quintile 25.0 35.0 5 (most deprived)

20.0 30.0 4

25.0 15.0 3 20.0

10.0 15.0 2

10.0 5.0 1 (least deprived) 5.0 - 1 995 2 003 2 004 0.0 1995 2003 2004 * 2004 data are provisional * 2004 data are provisional

17 6b. PREGNANCY & CHILDBIRTH – Breastfeeding & teenage pregnancies

% breastfeeding at 6-8 weeks, % breastfeeding at 6-8 weeks, 2000-2002 West of Scotland and Glasgow communities 2000-2002 Glasgow/West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest and 10 lowest rates Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data) Source: NHSHS - Community Health Profiles 2004 (from ISD data) 90 60 57 80 78 50 48 50 46 70 68 70 66 68 65 65 66 66 66 38 40 36 34 60 33 33 31 32 29 31 30 28 25 26 26 26 50 23 24 21 21 22 23 19 20 20 18 40 34

30 10

20 0 10 l l 8 8 999 9 e n n e ld n y e e e w n s d ie nd d re u ire le le d r re vi d od 10 6 6 6 la idge gow wel haw gow ou lto gow ly hi h g l dal ond ri hi hi n En r s r s s hap st c s na s a s lb s sgo el a wo t gav ot a e i a c i as r r er m i a k t s n tb l th W l er y h V de o ews th e Sc a G Gl m Hami G v rn y L K r a as u In h Ayr t A e h Ayr t Gl r E Mil Co rn Mo st rt s Cl ast nf n/ 0 e e E St r Shawl w W & & N Cumbe Ea & Rut Lev Re e o de e & Dr W No t Sout t g s ri ast de s h Eas s l l E i on & Denn th ng nd t ea a ar N E E k rk n m p h l ll N il rd ank la a r ne W N W c a o l o hi hi de h ds b get y We G Gl Be land d y o nny nl loc ead k si n n Ai o e d Sou us e & Sou / on nt rn P nst di u lh ic n lvi o d i b l d ot use E et r a aco r l t i wa y m s w c hea o a apel apel lie ve m a D Bar oom v W Br e lan S k h dg C house lm e l - Hi Ke ll/ Cl Pai r er i ch ch Ki ilm n; Br Par Kel Do hi Ca f es ter m gus St to ie ; y Par Br m u Da r K e; r ni u - ug av nd a Ren East Dr Fe n L a An Eas Dr e ng dal dl M l in n rsd Mi v a Hy e Kel B

Breastfeeding at 6-8 weeks, NHS Greater Glasgow, 1998-2004 Teenage Pregnancies (13-19) for selected West of Scotland Councils, 1991/92 - 2002/03 Source: ISD Scotland Source: ISD Scotland

7.0 50.0

6.0 45.0 Glasgow City

19 5.0 40.0

eeks East Ayrshire 8 w

6- 4.0 35.0 Scotland d at men aged 13- e f o South east 30.0 3.0 Lanarkshire 100 w

es br East per e

t Dunbartonshire a 2.0

25.0 R

% babi East Renfrewshire

20.0 1.0 Greater Glasgow Scotland

15.0 - 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03

Note: 2004 figures are provisional * 2002/03 data are provisional

18 6. PREGNANCY & CHILDBIRTH – continued

Summary points • Huge variations in recorded rates of smoking during pregnancy are evident across the different parts of Glasgow. At the larger community level, rates in Clydebank & Drumchapel between 2000 and 2002 were five times higher than those in Eastwood. Even more striking differences are seen at the small area (postcode sector) level. • The trend in smoking during pregnancy is, however, downward. Between 1995 and 2004, rates in the Greater Glasgow area fell from 33% of pregnant women to the national figure of 26%. Decreases were recorded in deprived as well as affluent parts of Glasgow, although as the rates of decrease were similar, the gap between the most and least deprived populations did not narrow. • Breastfeeding rates also vary enormously across Glasgow and the West of Scotland. At a community level, rates in 2000/02 ranged from 18% of babies being breastfed at 6-8 weeks in Airdrie & Coatbridge, to almost 60% in Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie. At a small area level, the variation is again yet more striking. • Breastfeeding rates for all Greater Glasgow have now reached the national level of 36%. However, that figure has not increased any further in the last few years. • Teenage pregnancy rates also differ enormously across Glasgow and the West of Scotland; however, at a local authority level, rates within Glasgow City have fallen by around 20% since 1991/92.

19 7. CHILDREN’S HEALTH – Looked after children, smoking/alcohol/drug use, dental health

Looked after children - rate per 1000, three year rolling average, 1998 - 2004 Smoking, alcohol & drug use among 13 and 15 year-olds in Greater Glasgow, 2002 Source: Care Scotland Source: SALSUS

25.0 35 males females 30 30 29 20.0

15 25 s d l o

15.0 -

n aged 0- 20 e r d l

15 year 15

13- 15 10.0

1000 chi 12

% of 11 per e

t 10 a

R 7 5.0 5

0 0.0 Regular smoker drunk alcohol in past week taken drugs in past month 1998 - 2000 1999 - 2001 2000 - 2002 2001 - 2003 2002 - 2004

Scotland West of Scotland Glasgow City

Percentage of 5 year-olds with no decayed/missing/filled teeth ('zero caries'), Dental decay: % of 5 year-old children with obvious/advanced decay (risk level 2-3) Scotland & Greater Glasgow 1987/99 - 2003/04 by LHCC area, Greater Glasgow 2003-04 Source: NDIP & SHBDEP Source: NDIP

60 80 74 74 70 68 70 70 68 64 65 50 62 59 58 60 58 52 48 50 s 40 43 e i 40 37 car al 30 30

no dent 20 h t i w

% 20 10

0

e n d w n e el 10 ow en vi n to d p gl gow E nds gow toun go a sg gavi wood s la bank is sgow h la ln m hkel a st e as las dge odsi la c i yd nn ri o m G M Ca rat Gl Gl e B G u r East We Shaw Cl n h G W e St st D rt ill Dr a ow ter h est eat den/ g Gt y W r s h E s No r G la Eas h G Ma 0 Bear Sout d/ Sout 1987/88 1989/90 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 lan es ni Scotland Greater Glasgow An

20 7. CHILDREN’S HEALTH – continued

Summary points • In 2004, two and a half thousand children were being ‘looked after’ by the local authority in Glasgow. Proportionally, Glasgow stands out as having the highest rate of looked after children not only within the West of Scotland, but across the whole country: the rate of 20.8 per 1,000 children is almost twice the national figure and well in excess of the overall figure for the West of Scotland. • The trend in the numbers of looked after children shows a slow, but consistent, increase over the past few years. Across all Scotland, rates rose from 9.5 in 1998 to 10.9 in 2004, while in Glasgow the rate increased from 18.2 to 20.0, an increase of about 14%, in line with the national trend. • The Scottish schools adolescent lifestyle and substance use survey (SALSUS) showed that in 2002 significant proportions of 13 and 15 year-olds in Greater Glasgow (a) were regular smokers (7% of boys, 11% of girls), (b) had drunk alcohol in the week prior to the survey (30% of boys, 29% of girls), and (c) had tried drugs in the previous month (15% of boys, 12% of girls). However, all figures were lower than the equivalent national estimates. • Dental health in children in Greater Glasgow has improved slightly since the late 1980s, with the percentage of five year-olds without any decayed, filled or missing teeth rising from 35% in 1987/88 to 42% in 2003/04. However, this latter figure is lower than that of Scotland (50%), and also means that almost 60% of primary 1 schoolchildren fall into risk categories 2 and 3 of the National Dental Inspection Programme (i.e. equating to “obvious evidence of decay experience and/or poor oral hygiene” (risk level 2) or “obvious advanced and/or widespread current decay” (risk level 3)). Within the city this figure varies from 37% (Anniesland, Bearsden, Milngavie) to 74% (Drumchapel).

21 8. HEALTH & FUNCTION – Adults unable to work due to illness/disability

% of adults of working age unable to work due to illness/disability, % of adults of working age unable to work due to illness/disability, 2000 Glasgow/West of Scotland communities, 2000 Glasgow & West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest and 10 lowest rates Source: NHSHS Community Profiles/DWP Source: NHS HS - NHSHS Community Profiles/DWP 30 60

25 24 49 25 50 44 20 21 42 20 40 37 17 17 17 35 16 32 32 32 33 15 15 15 15 31 ng age pop i 15 13 30

k 13 r 12 12 o 11 12 11 11 11 w 10 9 9 of 10 8 20 % of working age pop %

5 5 11 5 10 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4

0 0 d ill n s n h u n k r x s e ll E n s y ll l i r c ny o tu d N W n S o ck d ie e in re e le re ld re d n e e w e w w w w n an h u rn o n oc ro d k y hi n lt o v od lv i nd ir i i d lle to d len p o g a o u tl n a h rlo Rh lla Ib an a il t ad o lan o rid h o da au En n a ly rwe a id h go go to Fr a ; rdi rkst ffn tl e rn ton rn t ga w b ke rs sh sh n rsh t la c rg h sg s sg s s s co wa n ; T h a a i h he il et Ca n t il h y om yr es w r s w V mil r e e c a tbr la a a i Me ll g G Du k lem k g co il s K t L d e e e n th h a Wi n S le ll; i - B lm Cl ; Oa r Ca r m id lma S t a A A y fr Ay a r Ha ve t m Gl Do G i h e ur e ; a st a r a M Ea s r h t l n h W e In u t Gl G Gl en ; h e i Ki g s P Pa H B D n/ t s C mb rt Sh v Mo Co st rn N D d k tl sb - al Ca Ea St u w r e R Dru as e n r s n illa b de o Ea Re Cu d E & t & & la Ki a gav le n r s S No go te L n & We s d ; ln e V o r st a d a k th rie h de n i d d as re n n t Ea i to m He s G ea a ng u rd u s n - C M r ul ; B We Gl G y a ba i o d ge Hyn oo e a n / l e So A S o d r d rna le ri B rs Be ow nd w & is us Wo B a be nt la e a b o fr P m Clyd ill/ Be m s ies n a h e n C ry Cu h n Re tc A Ma u H

Adults unable to work due to illness/disability Incapacity benefit/severe disability allowance claimants, 2000-2004 Summary points Source: DWP

40.0 • In 2000, almost one fifth of the working age population of Glasgow was unable to work due to illness/disability 35.0 Glasgow n

o Scotland i (claimants of incapacity benefit or severe disability at 30.0 allowance). 25.0 ng age popul i

k • At a community level this figure ranged from 5% r

o 20.0 w

of (Anniesland, Bearsden, Milngavie) to 25% (Bridgeton & 15.0

s as % Dennistoun); even more striking variation was evident at nt a 10.0 m ai l

C a small area (postcode sector) level. 5.0 • Between 2000 and 2004, the figure for Glasgow fell 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 slightly (from 19% to 17%).

22 9a. ILLNESS & DISEASE – Heart disease

Deaths from heart disease by Glasgow "community", Ischaemic Heart Disease: age standardised death rates, males (15-74) age-standardised rates, 1991/93 - 2000/02 Scotland and large Health Boards, 1976-2001 Source: GRO(S)/NHS Health Scotland Source: GRO(S)

500 350.0 Bridgeton & Dennistoun Greater Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow Glasgow 300.0 Eastern Glasgow 400

South West Glasgow Scotland 250.0

000 pop South East Glasgow 300 100, Clydebank & Drumchapel 200.0

per e t Greater Shawlands a

sed r 150.0 Cambuslang & Rutherglen 200 i d Glasgow West End andar 100.0 Scotland Rate per 100,00 population per year e st

g 100 A Strathkelvin 50.0 Eastwood

Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavi 0 0.0 e 7 2 7 3 8 76 7 78 79 80 81 8 83 84 85 86 8 88 89 90 91 92 9 94 95 96 97 9 99 00 01 9 9 9 9 9 1991 - 1993 1994 - 1996 1997 - 1999 2000 - 2002 19 19 19 19 1 19 19 19 19 1 19 19 19 1 19 19 19 19 1 19 19 19 19 1 20 20

Admissions to hospital for heart disease (all forms), West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest and lowest rates, age-standardised rates, 1991/93 - 2000/02 Summary points Source: ISD Scotland/NHS Health Scotland • Between 1976 and 2001 rates in heart disease 1800.0 Ruchazie Bridgeton E mortality in Greater Glasgow almost halved. The 1600.0 Old Monkland; Kirkwood Easterhouse W decrease for all Scotland was even greater, however, Easterhouse E 1400.0 Drumchapel NE Dalmarnock meaning that since the early 1980s rates in Greater 000 pop 1200.0 Barlanark

100, High Possil Glasgow have remained relatively higher.

per 1000.0 Greenock SE e t a Scotland • Reductions in deaths from heart disease can be seen 800.0 Eaglesham sed r i d Doonfoot; Alloway across all the Glasgow communities. 600.0 Bearsden - Castlehill; Thorn andar Bearsden - Kessington e st

g Bearsden - Westerton • The decrease in heart disease mortality has not

A 400.0 Largs Howwood 200.0 always been matched by a decrease in heart disease Clarkston Glen Fruin 0.0 Lugton; Dunlop morbidity (as measured by hospital admissions). 1991 - 1993 1994 - 1996 1997 - 1999 2000 - 2002

23 9b. ILLNESS & DISEASE – Diabetes, deliberate self harm

Admissions to hospital for diabetes by Glasgow "community", Hospital admissions for deliberate self harm, average annual age-standardised rates, 2000- age-standardised rates, 1991/93 - 2000/02 2002, Glasgow & West of Scotland communities Source: ISD Scotland/NHS Health Scotland Source: ISD Scotland/NHSHS Community Profiles

600.0 1,400.0 Maryhill/Woodside & N n o Glasgow i at Greater Shawlands 500.0 1,200.0 Strathkelvin

000 popul 400.0 South East Glasgow 1,000.0 100,

000 pop Bridgeton & Dennistoun 300.0 es per t 100, Eastern Glasgow a 800.0

per 200.0 e sed r t i a

Cambuslang & Rutherglen d

sed r 600.0 100.0

i Scotland andar d Glasgow West End age st

andar 0.0 400.0 l e st Eastwood e e d n e e d d e l e y e e nd i o on i w en r l n d w ds e ge ir e un w ir r g a rid lt lv hi o y n w d l o a h hi tl b av i e gl s End l go gow a i sh h apel s A l wo sgo sdal nau l st h sgow ng m a w r st m rc as as br r is rs a Ki l st thk de her e e e l her t y W y Sco Ha a Gl y t r be Lo v Gl aw ot a A n Val mc A Ayr Gl Clydebank & Drumchapel Mi Ea r l u W In t G h er enni u h t n/ st C R nf m rn Sh M Co D East St e u w e r Dr rt 200.0 Re C o Eas & o Eas & N sde W t g te Sout & N e r h s s h a ie d South West Glasgow t ang & e la ut East e dr on nk & i l W G r et a Bea s Gr Ai y and Levg / Sou u So e id b sl oods and m w & Br lydeb /W Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavi a re C ll 0.0 esl C f Pai n yhi e Re r 1991 - 1993 1994 - 1996 1997 - 1999 2000 - 2002 Anni Ma

Summary points • Notable increases in hospitalisation rates for certain diseases have become evident in recent years. One example of this is diabetes. Nationally, hospital admission rates for this reason more than doubled between 1991/93 and 2000/02. This increase is mirrored in many parts of Glasgow including Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow (the community with the highest rate of admission in Scotland, where admission rates also increased by almost 100% over the ten years), while some areas experienced even steeper increases over the period (e.g. Greater Shawlands). • Long-term trends in admission to hospital for deliberate self harm are unavailable. However, analysis of admission rates across the Glasgow communities show in excess of four-fold variation between Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie (the community with the lowest recorded hospitalisation rate) and Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow (the community with the highest rate).

24 10a. PROJECTIONS – Population

Projected Population Changes in Scotland, 2002- 2018, Population Projections for Glasgow, all persons by age band, 2002 vs 2018 Scotland and West of Scotland Local Authorities (Source: GROS) Source: GRO(S) 160

5.8 East Renfrewshire 2002 2018 137 140 133 -2.2 North Lanarkshire

-2.5 South Lanarkshire 119 120 116 112 -5.8 East Dunbartonshire

-6.1 South Ayrshire 100 95

-6.9 North Ayrshire Thousands

n 80 76 74 -7.8 West Dunbartonshire on i

i 66

-7.8 East Ayrshire at 60 54 -8.2 Renfrewshire Popul 40 -11.3 Inverclyde 37 40 34 31

-5.3 Glasgow City 20

-2.4 SCOTLAND 0 -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 0-4 5-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75 & over % Change in overall population Age Group

Dependency Ratio Projections for Scotland and WoS Councils, 2002 and 2018 Source: derived from GROS data Summary points

100% • Glasgow’s population is expected to fall by around 5% 2002 2018 90% by 2018. 90% 84% 83%

) • Glasgow’s projections differ from those of the rest of the

% 80% 78% 78% 78%

o ( 75% i 75%

t 74% a 72% 72% country, with the number of young children (0-4) set to 69% 69% 70% 67% 68% 66% 66% 64% 64% 64% 63% increase by 10%, and the population in older age groups 61%

pendency R 58%

e 60% 57% D expected to decrease – rather than increase – slightly. 50% • Although Scotland’s ‘dependency ratio’ (the proportion

40% of young and old in the population to those of working y e e e e e e e e it r ir re ir r d r re r ir C hi h hi ly shi hi hi kshi sh s s rc s sh ow rk w e w tons re Ayr v re tons Ayr sg nar na t f age) is expected to increase significantly by 2018, this is ar ar h Ayr h a In b t SCOTLAND l La La nb enf r G h u R Eas Ren rt th No Sout o t D Dun N Sou s East We East not the case in Glasgow.

25 10b. PROJECTIONS – Households

Projected change in % of single adult households, Projected change in lone parent households West of Scotland Councils, 2002 vs 2016 West of Scotland councils, 2002 vs. 2016 Source: GRO(S) Source: Register General Office of Scotland

60% 60% 2002 2016 49% 2002 2016 50% 50% 48% 42% 42% 41% 42% en

39% 39% dr 40% 38% 38% l 41% 37% 39% 35% 35% 35% 33% 34% chi 40% 37% 37%

h 36%

32% 32% t 31% 31% 31% i 29% 30% 33% 33% 33% 30% 26% 31% 25% ds w 29% 29% 30% 27% 27% 24% 25% 23% 23% 22% 20% 20% 21% 20% househol

l 20%

al 14% 14% 10% % of 10%

0%

d y e e e e n t ir ir ire ir ire ire ire ir ire de 0% la h h h h h h h ly t sh rs rs s sh rs s o w Ci ws y rk rk ws n rc y e e e e e e e e e o ton Ay a ve t r r ir r r ire r r r Sc g fre r t n na Ay fre rto and hi hi hi h yd hi hi s n s th A h n a In l Ci s shi sh s s l s shi a ba La rt w n ks c k ns r Gl n ou La Re nb o w o y t Re Ea th th No rew t Ayr ar re ver t s S u r Du Scot Ayr n nar A t Du o t asgo th I th Ea s So N s l enf enf La nbar G R unbar East h Lan R h u or Ea We t Sou rt N t D ut D Eas s So No st Ea We

Summary points • Single adult households are predicted to increase, and it is expected they will account for 39% of all households in Scotland by 2016. • Across the West of Scotland, Glasgow is currently the council with the largest proportion of single person households and this is projected to increase further, with the percentage of single adult households in the city forecast to reach 49% by 2016. • The proportion of families that have a single parent resident in the household are projected to rise in the next 10 years also, both nationally and in every council area in the West of Scotland. • Based on current trends, lone parent families in Glasgow are forecasted to become as common as two parent families in the city by 2016.

26 10c. PROJECTIONS – Traffic, alcohol related harm, life expectancy

Projected traffic growth from 2001, Scotland & Glasgow* Alcohol related mortality, Greater Glasgow: Source: Scottish Executive deaths 1980-2003 and projections 2004-2027 Source: GRO(S)/NHSHS

30 1200

25 1000

20 hs 800 deat of om 2001 r

f 15 h t ed no. 600 ow ect j o r p % gr 10 / 400 mber u N

5 Scotland 200 Glasgow City 0 2001 2006 2011 2021 0 0 2 6 8 8 8 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 0 0 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 9 9 0 0 0 * all traffic originating from Glasgow City 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 1 1 2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 2

Male Life Expectancy at Birth (years); West of Scotland Council Areas vs Scotland; Trend: 1991-1993 to 2001-2003; Projections: 2002-2004 to 2011-2013 Summary points Source: Office for National Statistics & Health Scotland 82.0 • By 2021, traffic volume on Scotland’s - and Glasgow's - 80.2 80.0 road network is predicted to rise by approximately 25%

78.0 77.2 from 2001 levels.

75.6 76.0 • Based on the trend between 1980 and 2003, a simple

73.5 74.0 linear regression based projection of alcohol related

72.0 mortality estimates a further 110% increase by 2028. Life Expectancy at birth 70.2 70.0 69.1 • Similar trend-line projections of male life expectancy

68.0 (based on trends between 1991/93 and 2001/03) predict

66.0 the gap between Glasgow and East Dunbartonshire to 1991- 1992- 1993- 1994- 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Council rise from 8 to 10 years. Scotland Glasgow City East Dunbartonshire

27 NOTES, DEFINITIONS & SOURCES

Section Page Indicator/Title Description Time Source period 4 Population trend (Glasgow City Total population of city of Glasgow 1801-2004 MOH Reports (1898, Council area and its 1925,1926,1972); predecessors) GRO(S) Annual Reports (1973-2004) 4 Births and deaths (Glasgow City Total births and deaths, both expressed as a 1855-2004 MOH Reports (1898, Council area and its crude rate per 1,000 population 1925,1926,1972) predecessors) GRO(S) Annual Reports (1973-2004) 4 Infant deaths (Glasgow City Deaths under 1 year of age expressed as a rate 1855-2004 MOH Reports (1898, Council area and its per 1,000 live births 1925,1926,1972) HISTORICAL predecessors) GRO(S) Annual Reports CONTEXT/ (1973-2004) POPULATION 5 Death rates in Glasgow’s Total number of deaths from all causes, 1901 MOH Reports (1901) DYNAMICS sanitary districts expressed as a crude rate per 1,000 population 5 Death rates (by community & Average annual deaths from all causes 2000-2002 NHSHS Community postcode sector) expressed as a directly age-standardised rate per Profiles (from GRO(S) 100,000 population data) (2004) 6 Life expectancy (by council) Male and female life expectancy at birth 1821/27 – MOH Reports (1925); ONS 2001/03 (2005) 6 Male life expectancy trend (by Male life expectancy at birth 1991/93- ONS (2005) council) 2001/03 6 Healthy life expectancy (by Healthy life expectancy estimates for males 1999-2000 ISD Scotland council) (based on absence of long-term limiting illness in SHHS data) 7 Children in workless % of dependent children living in households 2001 NHSHS Community ECONOMY households (by community) where no-one is in employment Profiles (from 2001 Census data)

28 Section Page Indicator/Title Description Time Source period 7 Unemployment (by council) Unemployment claimant count expressed as 1992-2004 NOMIS percentage of working age population 7 Income Support (by council) % of population over 16 claiming Income 2001 - SNS (from DWP data) Support 2003 7 Free school meals (by council) % primary school pupils entitled to free school 1997-2004 SE Education Department meals 9 Lone parent households (by % of all households with dependent children 2001 NHSHS Community community & postcode sector) which are lone parent households Profiles (from 2001 Census data) 10 Participation in Higher Estimated new student participation rates1 in 1998/00 – HESA Education (by community & Higher Education 2001/03 postcode sector) 11 Crime trend (Scotland & Trends in selected categories of recorded crime 1997-2003 Scottish Executive SOCIAL Glasgow City) (expressed as crude rates per 10,000 ENVIRONMENT population) 11 Fear of crime (by council) % of respondents stating they do not feel safe 2003-04 SHHS walking in their neighbourhood alone after dark 11 Violent crime (by datazone) (1) Violent offenders and (2) victims of violent 2002-2005 Strathclyde Police Violence crime, expressed as rate per 1,000 population at Reduction Unit datazone level (shown by name of electoral ward within which datazone is located) 13 Overcrowding (by community) Number and percentage of all households 2001 NHSHS Community PHYSICAL termed as ‘overcrowded’2 Profiles (from 2001 ENVIRONMENT Census)

1 Calculated as number of Scottish domicile, full-time, first degree, first year students aged 20 and younger averaged over a three year period expressed as a percentage of the population aged 17 at the 2001 Census. 2 Relates the actual number of rooms in a household space to the number of rooms 'required' by the members of the household (based on the relationships between them and their ages).

29 Section Page Indicator/Title Description Time Source period 13 House condition (for NHSGG) Estimated numbers of properties with damp, 2002 SHCS condensation, mould, poor NHER (National Home Energy Rating) 13 Proximity to derelict sites (by % of population within 0-500m of any derelict 2004 SNS (from SVDLS data) council) sites 14 Alcohol related mortality (by Total number of alcohol related deaths3 1980-2003 GRO(S) gender) (principal & secondary causes) 14 Alcohol related/attributable Average annual acute hospital ‘continuous 1990/92 - NHSHS Community hospital admissions (by inpatient stays’ for directly alcohol related or 1999/01 Profiles (from ISD community & postcode sector) attributable conditions expressed as a directly Scotland data) age-standardised rate per 100,000 population 14 Liver cirrhosis mortality (by Age standardised mortality rates among men 1950-2002 NHSHS (from WHOSIS country & for NHSGG) aged 15-74 data) BEHAVIOUR 15 Smoking (Scotland, Glasgow % of adults smoking 1999/00 – SHHS City) 2003/04 15 Sexually Transmitted Infections Acute sexually transmitted infections4 1996-2004 ISD Scotland (Scotland, Glasgow City) expressed as crude rates per 100,000 population aged 15-64 15 Obesity (for NHSGG) % of adults aged 16-64 classified as obese 1995, SHS (BMI>30) 2003 15 Mode of travel to work (by % of population who travel to place of 2001 Census council) work/study by (a) car and (b) bicycle or on foot

3 ICD9/ICD10 codes supplied by ISD Scotland; secondary causes of death have been limited to three in number. 4 Acute STIs include the following: infectious syphilis, gonorrhoea, chlamydia, genital herpes (first episode only), genital warts (first episode only), NGSI (non-chlamydial), trichomoniasis, HIV infection (newly diagnosed only), “other acute STI”. They do not include: other acquired syphilis, congenital syphilis, genital herpes recurrence, genital warts recurrence/reregistered.

30 Section Page Indicator/Title Description Time Source period 17 Smoking during pregnancy (by Percentage of pregnant women recorded as 2000- NHSHS Community NHS Board, community, smoking at first hospital booking 2002; Profiles (from ISD postcode sector & deprivation 1995-2004 Scotland data); ISD quintile) Scotland (trends) PREGNANCY & 18 Breastfeeding (by NHS Board, Percentage of babies being breastfed at 6-8 2000- NHSHS Community CHILDBIRTH community & postcode sector) week review 2002; Profiles (from ISD 1998-2004 Scotland data); ISD Scotland (trend) 18 Teenage pregnancies (by Teenage pregnancies expressed as crude rate 1991/92 – ISD Scotland council) per 100 population aged 13-19 2002/03 20 Looked after children (for West Number of children ‘looked after’ by a local 1998/00- Care Scotland of Scotland and Glasgow City) authority (three-year rolling average rate per 2002/04 1000 0-17 year-olds) CHILDREN’S 20 Smoking, alcohol, drug use Smoking, alcohol, drug use by 13 & 15 year- 2002 SALSUS HEALTH among teenagers (for NHSGG) old school children 20 Dental health of young children (1) % of 5 year-olds with ‘zero caries’; (2) % 1987/89 – NDIP; SHBDEP (for NHSGG & by LHCC) of 5 year-olds with obvious/advanced decay5 2003/04 22 Adults unable to work due to Claimants of incapacity benefit and severe 2000-2004 NHSHS Community HEALTH & illness & disability (by disability allowance expressed as % of the profiles (from DWP data); FUNCTION community, postcode sector and working age population DWP (trend) council) 23 Heart disease mortality (by Directly age-standardised mortality rates for 1991/93- NHSHS Community ILLNESS & community) heart disease (all forms6) 2000/02 Profiles (from GRO(S) DISEASE data) 23 Ischaemic heart disease Age standardised ischaemic heart disease death 1976-2001 NHSHS (from GRO(S) mortality (by NHS Board) rates among males aged 15-74 data)

5 NDIP risk levels 2 or 3:- risk level 2: “obvious evidence of decay experience and/or poor oral hygiene” ; risk level 3: “obvious advanced and/or widespread current decay”

31 Section Page Indicator/Title Description Time Source period 23, Hospital admissions: heart Average annual acute hospital ‘continuous 1991/03- NHSHS Community 24 disease, diabetes, deliberate self inpatient stays’ (expressed as a directly age- 2000/02 Profiles (from ISD harm (by community & standardised rate per 100,000 population) for: Scotland data) postcode sector) heart disease (all forms)6, deliberate self harm7, and diabetes8) 25 Population (by council) Projected population change 2002-2018 GRO(S) 25 Dependency ratio (by council) Projected change in dependency ratio (the 2002-2018 NHSHS (from GRO(S) proportion of young and old in the population data) to those of working age) 26 Households (by council) Projected change in percentage of (a) single 2002-2016 GRO(S) adult households (shown as % of all households), and (b) lone parent households PROJECTIONS (shown as % of all households with children) 27 Traffic (for Glasgow City) Projected background traffic growth 2001-2021 SE Transport Division 27 Alcohol related mortality (for Projections (from simple linear regression 2004-2027 NHSHS (from GRO(S) NHSGG) based calculation) of numbers of alcohol related data deaths 27 Male life expectancy (by Projections (from simple linear regression 2002/04- NHSHS (from GRO(S) council) based calculation) of future male life 2011/13 data expectancy at birth

6 Heart disease: ICD9 390-429; ICD10 I00-I52 (principal diagnosis only). 7 Suicide/deliberate self harm: ICD9 E950-E959; ICD10 X60-X84 (any diagnostic position). 8 Diabetes: ICD9 250; ICD10 E10-E14 (all diagnostic positions).

32 ABBREVIATIONS

Abbreviation Description BMI Body Mass Index DWP Department of Work & Pensions GRO(S) General Register Office for Scotland HESA Higher Education Statistics Agency ISD Scotland Information Services Division of NHS National Services Scotland LHCC Local Healthcare Cooperative MOH Medical Officer of Health (of the City of Glasgow) NDIP National Dental Inspection Programme NHSHS NHS Health Scotland NHSGG NHS Greater Glasgow NOMIS National Online Manpower Information System ONS Office of National Statistics SALSUS Scottish Schools Adolescent Lifestyle & Substance Use Survey SE Scottish Executive SHBDEP Scottish Health Boards’ Dental Epidemiological Programme SHS Scottish Health Survey SHCS Scottish House Condition Survey SHHS Scottish Household Survey SNS Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics SVDLS Scottish Vacant & Derelict Land Survey WHOSIS World Health Organisation Statistical Information System

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