Spatial Analysis of Future Climate Structure in New Mexico Viticulture Regions

The Grape Debate

GIF Image Credit: http://www.buzzfeed.com/sandraeallen/how-climate-change-will-end-wine-as-we-know-it#.qs1mqWzzq SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF FUTURE CLIMATE STRUCTURE IN NEW MEXICO VITICULTURE REGIONS

Research Question Identify and quantify how suitable growing zones for the grapevine are impacted by future climate change R+W Objectives

Identify best Agricultural Uses of the Arizona Water Settlement Act. Predict climate structure based on historical and projected average growing season air temperatures and growing degree days. Locate and assess appropriate cultivars and sites. Define general suitability for NM viticulture. Vineyard Physiography Geographical extent corresponds to a mean annual temperature of 10°C to 20°C

Average annual temperature correlates well to global vineyard locations. Grape growth and wine quality are a function of local and regional climate factors. Source: http://www.thirtyfifty.co.uk/images/World-wine-map.gif Global Wine Production

 Global wine production in 2013 reached 7.4 billion gallons, matching record highs from 2006 (OIV 2013).

 2014 saw a 6% decrease. (OIV 2014).

 Currently, the most popular varietals cultivated worldwide are Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Tempranillo, Chardonnay, and Syrah.

 Fifteen varietals accounted for half of the world’s harvested grapes in 2010, versus twenty-one in 2000.

 Red varieties are planted more frequently than white, occupying fifty-five percent of area under the vine as of 2010 (Anderson and Aryal 2013). Wine History in the USA

 Vine cuttings imported from Parras, Mexico in 1629, traveled with missionaries north via the El Camino Real to a Piro Indian pueblo south of Socorro named Senecú. (Street 2012).

 First documented wine grape planted in North America or New Mexico was a variety of Vitis vinifera, commonly called the “mission grape.”

 Vikings and Vinland +/- 1000 AD

 Jamestown, Virginia 1607 AD

"Usa edcp location map" by Uwe Dedering - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Usa_edcp_location_map.svg#/media/File:Usa_edcp_location_map.svg Best Agricultural Uses of the Arizona Water Settlement Act for Catron, Grant, Hidalgo and/or Luna Counties NM

Crop/Product Annual Gross Revenue, $ per acre-ft of Irrigation Water Consumed

• Pecans 1,000 • Chile 1,600 • Onions 5,000 • Wine Grapes 1,900 • Wine 19,000 • Lavender Oil 8,000

Source: nmawsa.org/library/reports/best-agricultural-uses Best Agricultural Uses of the Arizona Water Settlement Act Water and Funds

Source: nmawsa.org/library/reports/best-agricultural-uses Berkeley Earth analysis, 2015

 2015 was unambiguously the hottest year on record.  For the first time in recorded history, the Earth's temperature is clearly more than 1.0 C (1.8 F) above the 1850-1900 average.  2015 was approximately 0.1 degree C (about 0.2 degrees F) hotter than 2014, which had tied with 2005 and 2010 as the previous hottest years.  2015 set the record with 99.996% confidence. The analysis covered the entire surface of the Earth, including temperatures from both land and oceans.  The warming was not uniform, and for the contiguous United States, it was the 2nd warmest year ever (+1.33 C), surpassed only by 2012. The National Climate Assessment

2014 report that summarizes the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future.

Data Source: Texas Tech University A team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee produced the report, which was extensively reviewed by the public and experts, including federal agencies and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences.

http://www.globalchange.gov National Climate Assessment U.S. Southwest

 Increased heat and changes to rain and snowpack will send ripple effects throughout the region affecting 56 million people.

 Population expected to increase to 94 million by 2050 – and its critical agriculture sector.

 Severe and sustained drought will stress water sources, already over-utilized in many areas, forcing increasing competition among farmers, energy producers, urban dwellers, and ecosystems for the region’s most precious resource.

 CO 2 levels have increased to 400 ppm, higher than any time in at least the last one million years. Specialty Crops

 More than half of the nation’s high-value specialty crops, including certain fruits, nuts, and vegetables, come from the Southwest.

 A longer frost-free season, less frequent cold air outbreaks, and more frequent heat waves accelerate crop ripening and maturity, reduce yields of corn, tree fruit, and wine grapes, stress livestock, and increase agricultural water consumption.

 These changes are projected to continue and intensify, possibly requiring a northward shift in crop production, displacing existing growers and affecting farming communities. California’s Central Valley

 The area capable of consistently producing grapes required for the highest-quality wines is projected to decline by more than 50% by late this century.

 The 2015 year delivered California vintners and growers across the state another stellar vintage. Despite a lighter crop—compared to last year—from one of the earliest seasons on record. http://www.discovercaliforniawines.com/2015-california-winegrape-harvest/ Terroir

 Geography plays a vital role in how these individual local and regional climate characteristics affect vineyard practices; this geospatial relationship between land and vine is referred to as terroir.

 The root of the word 'terroir' is 'terre', which in French means 'land' or 'earth'. Climate, soil, terrain, and tradition are common variables used to describe terroir.

 Secondary variables such as localized bacteria and wild yeast growth (brettanomyces), found in specific ecological regions, may be present on the skins of the grape, translating into wine characteristics and complexity reflective of their terroir. Central Vineyards REGION ACRES Northern Vineyards REGION ACRES ACEQUIA VINEYARDS NEW MEXICO WINE REGIONS BLACK MESA WINERY N 3 & WINERY C 1 ESTRELLA DEL CORRALES WINERY C 3 Northern Region NORTE/SANTA FE CASA ABRIL VINEYARDS N 5 VINEYARDS & JACONA VALLEY WINERY C 4 WINERY N 2 CASA RONDENA LA CHIRIPADA WINERY N 2 WINERY C 3 GUADALUPE VIVAC WINERY N 10 VINEYARDS C 3 WINES OF THE SAN JUAN N 5 MILAGRO WINERY C 3 LAS NUEVE NINAS N 1 PASANDO TIEMPO C 1 PONDEROSA VALLEY Total 7 28 VINEYARD & WINERY C 12 TIERRA ENCANTADA VINEYARDS C 4 Central Region JARAMILLO VINEYARDS C 5 CAMINO REAL Southeast Vineyards REGION ACRES WINERY C 3 Total 11 42 Arena Blanca Winery SE 11 HEART OF THE DESERT SE 20 DOS VIEJOS WINERY SE 27 TULAROSA VINEYARDS SE 5 BALZANO VINEYARD & WINERY SE 4 Total 5 67 Southwest Vineyards REGION ACRES FORT SELDEN WINERY SW 2 Estate Vineyards LA ESPERANZAVINEYARD & 34 WINERY SW 4 Southwest Region Southeast Region Gallons Produced (2012) SHATTUCK VINEYARD SW 2 742,873 RIO GRANDE VINEYARDS & WINERY SW 8 SOMBRA ANTIGUA WINERY SW 14 LA VINA WINERY SW 27 Study Area LUNA ROSSA WINERY SW 32 Wine Acres in Production BELLANZI WINERY SW 83 787 ac GRUET SW 144 NEW MEXICO VINEYARDS SW 154 ST CLAIR WINERY SW 180 SE 67 Total 11 650 SW C 42 650 N 28 VINEYARD REGIONS AND ECOLOGICAL REGIONS

95% of the current vineyard locations in New Mexico are found in the Source: Bernd Maier Extension Viticulture Specialist New Mexico State Chihuahuan desert and Arizona/New Mexico Plateau Ecological Regions. University. Mapping Vineyard Locations: Imagery Visualization Methods

American Viticulture Areas (AVA) are federally established geographic regions that permit wine producers to label their products based on a prominent landmarks or significant physical features in a growing area that more accurately describe the origin of their wines. AVA designated regions assist consumers in attributing how vineyard location affects the

 Quality  Craftsmanship  Reputation  Other individual characteristics of a wine grape

AVA Petition Requirements:

1) The name of the proposed AVA is culturally significant.

2) The area within the boundary is significantly different than the area adjacent to the new boundary.

3) The natural features within the area affecting viticulture make it distinctive.

Tax and Trade Bureau (2012)

AVA Geographic Attributes  Climate parameters including temperature, precipitation, wind, fog, solar orientation and radiation, growing degree days and other climate information are recorded.

 Geological formations, landforms, and geophysical events such as earthquakes, eruptions, and major floods are documented.

 Soils series are described denoting parent material, texture, slope, permeability, soil reaction, drainage, and fertility.

 Physical features such as flat, hilly, or mountainous topography, geographical formations, bodies of water, watersheds, irrigation resources, and other physical features are noted.

 Elevation data containing the minimum and maximum elevations of the proposed area are submitted

Adopted from: TitleTitle 27: Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms; CFR part 9— American Viticultural Areas; (9.12) Subpart B — AVA Petition Requirements. Sky Islands /Pine Mountain-Cloverdale Peak AVA

Image Location: http://www.pinemountainappellation.com American Viticulture Areas (AVA) are federally Mayacamas Mountain Range that separates the Napa and Sonoma AVAs established geographic regions that permit wine producers to label their products based on a prominent landmarks or significant physical features in a growing area that more accurately describe the origin of their wines. (A) State, county, township, forest, and other political entity lines. (B) Highways, roads (including unimproved roads), and trails. (C) Contour or elevation lines. (D) Natural geographical features, including rivers, streams, creeks, ridges, marked elevation points, such as summits or benchmarks. (E) Human-made features such as bridges, buildings, windmills, or water tanks. (F) Straight lines between marked intersections, human-made features, or other map points.

Image Location: http://www.pinemountainappellation.com/ Micro Niche/Cole Ranch AVA

Image Location: www.esterlinavineyards.com

1. Climate parameters including temperature, precipitation, wind, fog, solar orientation and radiation, growing degree days and other climate information are • Smallest U.S. appellation recorded.

• 189 acres 2. Geological formations, landforms, and geophysical events such as earthquakes, eruptions, and major floods are documented. 3. Soils series are described denoting parent material, texture, slope, permeability, soil reaction, drainage, and fertility. 4. Physical features such as flat, hilly, or mountainous topography, geographical formations, bodies of water, watersheds, irrigation resources, and other physical features are noted.

5. Elevation data containing the minimum and maximum elevations of the proposed area are submitted Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang Scenarios

 In all stages of the scenario-building process, uncertainties are encountered.  The uncertainty is further compounded in going from emissions paths to climate change, from climate change to possible impacts and finally from these driving forces to formulating adaptation and mitigation measures and policies.  The uncertainties range from inadequate scientific understanding of the problems, data gaps and general lack of data to inherent uncertainties of future events in general.  Hence the use of alternative scenarios to describe the range of possible future emissions. Climate change, wine, and conservation Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2013

(B) Chile (C) Cape of South Africa (D) New Zealand (E) Australia 2000 vs. 2050 using 17-GCM Ensembles

http://www.pnas.org/content/110/17/6907.short Data Theme Data Source Data Analysis Data File

CCSM B1,A2,A1B CCSM Ensemble (2030-2049) Weighted Monthly Mean Database file Average Air Temperature Historical CCSM Ensemble (1980-1999)

CCSM B1,A2,A1B CCSM Ensemble (2030-2049) Mean Ensemble Ensemble Mean Database file Air Temperature Historical CCSM Ensemble (1980-1999)

CCSM Climate B1,A2,A1B CCSM Ensemble (2030-2049) Standard Database file Variation Historical CCSM Ensemble (1980-1999) Deviation

CCSM B1,A2,A1B CCSM Ensemble (2030-2049) Anomaly (Δ) Database file Δ Air Temperature Historical CCSM Ensemble (1980-1999)

30 Year USDD-MCP Ensemble (1981-2010) Fail to reject USDD Raster Data Z-Test B1,A2,A1B CCSM Ensemble (2030-2049) the null hypothesis

(Reject the null hypothesis)

Resultant Data Theme Compiled Data File

Predicted CCSM Mean Air Temperature B1,A2,A1B (Reprojected) B1,A2,A1B Ensemble CCSM Ensemble (2030-2049) (2030-2049) Shapefile Note: Air Temperature calculated from April 1 – October 31 PREDICTED NEW MEXICO CLIMATE STRUCTURE WORK FLOW DIAGRAM The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Composed of four separate models simultaneously simulating the earth's atmosphere, ocean, land surface and sea-ice. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Key component of the National Science Foundation program on Climate Modeling, Analysis and Prediction. OSU Integrated Plant Protection Center Grapevine Phenological Stages (Northern Hemisphere) Grapevine Developmental

 Grapevine developmental stages are regulated by temperature.  Grapevines require a certain amount of heat to develop from one stage in their growing cycle to another.  The measurement of accrued heat is known as physiological time.  The quantity of heat required to complete the development of a grapevine does not vary (Zalom et al. 1983).  Physiological time can be expressed in units called degree-days (DD) in °F or °C.  Growing degree-days (GDD) are an accumulated product of temperature and time for each day of an organism’s phenological cycle.  Temperature thresholds inherent to the organism’s physiology determine the maturation time from one point to another in its life cycle (Zalom et al. 1983). UC Davis Heat Summation Scale

Region Growing Degree Day °F Grape Varieties I Below 2,500 degree days Chardonnay, Pinot Noir, Gewurztraminer, Riesling

II 2,501-3,000 degree days Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Sauvignon Blanc

III 3,001-3,500 degree days Zinfandel, Barbera, Gamay IV 3,501-4,000 degree days Malvasia, Thompson Seedless

V Over 4,001 degree days Thompson Seedless, other table grapes Source: UC Davis Heat Summation Scale

Grapevine Phenology

= (10°C)base 2 𝑇𝑇max +𝑇𝑇𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 − 50℉ Climate and North American Wine Regions White et al. (2006) state that premium wine production is geographically limited to regions that permit balanced composition and varietal typicity.

Three climate variables affecting premium wine production;  Adequate heat accumulation (growing degree days),  Low risk of severe frost damage  The absence of extreme heat.

Thermal conditions exceeding 35°C for short time periods can benefit ripening potential, yet prolonged periods of temperatures exceeding 35°C can induce heat stress in the grapevine. Heat stress can result in premature ripening, the loss of fruit through abscission, enzyme deactivation, and partial or total flavor degradation GRADUATED SYMBOLS REPRESENTING VINEYARD ACREAGE CCSM Ensembles

CCSM Ensembles

Projected Growing Degree Days (A2 Scenario) NEW MEXICO STATE FAIR MEDAL AWARDS POINT TABLE EXAMPLE

Cabernet Sauvignon Wine Premier Best of Gold Silver Bronze Weighted Awards Region Lat Lon (10pts) Show(9pts) (7pts) (4pts) (1pt) Total LA ESPERANZA VINEYARD & WINERY SW 32.7 -107.9 2 2 LUNA ROSSA WINERY SW 32.3 -107.8 1 1 4 18 SOMBRA ANTIGUA WINERY SW 32.0 -106.7 1 4 ST CLAIR VINEYARD SW 32.2 -108.5 1 1 2 4 3 52 AMARO WINERY SW 32.3 -106.8 5 1 21 ARENA BLANCA WINERY SE 33.0 -106.0 1 1 DOS VIEJOS WINERY SE 33.0 -106.0 1 4 HEART OF THE DESERT SE 33.0 -106.0 1 3 1 2 36 NOISY WATER SE 33.3 -105.7 1 4 PECOS FLAVORS WINERY SE 33.4 -104.5 1 1 CASA RONDENA WINERY C 35.2 -106.6 2 3 2 32 CORRALES WINERY C 35.2 -106.6 5 20 PONDEROSA VALLEY VINEYARDS C 35.6 -106.7 1 2 5 20 TIERRA ENCANTADA WINERY C 35.1 -106.7 1 1 13 MATHESON WINERY C 35.3 -106.6 2 2 BLACK MESA WINERY N 36.2 -106.0 1 1 11 LA CHIRIPADA WINERY N 36.2 -105.9 1 4 8 SANTA FE VINEYARDS N 35.9 -106.0 3 1 13 WINES OF THE SAN JUAN N 36.8 -107.8 1 1

Central feature

Central feature calculations infer premium wine production is a regional phenomenon of vineyard location. To better describe this regional phenomena, spatial information resulting from this central feature function can be applied to other geographic features such as: slope, aspect, orientation of vineyards, elevations, soil structure, micro climate conditions, geologic conditions, and other physical features impacting site location. CENTRAL FEATURE CALCULATION

TOTAL WEIGHTED Gewurztraminer Wine DISTANCE WEIGHT DISTANCE Awards D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8

LUNA ROSSA WINERY 81124 (D1) 0 102399 68370 97034 189459 189302 319515 494152 1460231 18

RIO GRANDE VINEYARDS 1270342 & WINERY (D2) 102399 0 166773 8100 110591 110434 329890 442155 1270342 1 123980 ST CLAIR VINEYARD (D3) 68370 166773 0 164654 253244 253530 331250 497898 1735719 14 1237543 AMARO WINERY (D4) 97034 8100 164654 0 106566 106240 319352 435597 1237543 1

ARENA BLANCA WINERY 129028 (D5) 189459 110591 253244 106566 0 850 276459 353113 1290282 10

HEART OF THE DESERT 143264 (D6) 189302 110434 253530 106240 850 0 275959 353063 1289378 9

GUADALUPE VINEYARDS 2040054 (D7) 319515 329890 331250 319352 276459 275959 0 187629 2040054 1

BLACK MESA WINERY 1381804 (D8) 494152 442155 497898 435597 353113 353063 187629 0 2763607 2 TOTAL DISTANCE (meters) WEIGHTED DISTANCE (meters)

1. AMARO WINERY (D4) 1. LUNA ROSSA WINERY (D1) 2. RIO GRANDE VINEYARDS & WINERY (D2) 2. ST CLAIR VINEYARD (D3) 3. HEART OF THE DESERT (D6) 3. ARENA BLANCA WINERY (D5) 4. ARENA BLANCA WINERY (D5) 4. HEART OF THE DESERT (D6) 5. LUNA ROSSA WINERY (D1) 5. AMARO WINERY (D4) 6. ST CLAIR VINEYARD (D3) 6. RIO GRANDE VINEYARDS & WINERY (D2) 7. GUADALUPE VINEYARDS (D7) 7. BLACK MESA WINERY (D8) 8. BLACK MESA WINERY (D8) 8. GUADALUPE VINEYARDS (D7)

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHANGE IN GROWING REGIONS (HISTORICAL vs PROJECTED A2 SCENARIO CENTRAL FEATURE LOCATIONS) SUMMARY

Varietals Region 30 Year GGD B1 GDD A1B GDD A2 GDD 30 Year Avg Temp °C B1 Avg Temp °C A2 Avg Temp °C A1B Avg Temp°C

Riesling c 3329 4137 4469 4320 17.88 19.72 20.16 20.51

Sangiovese c 3490 4246 4551 4402 19.18 21.07 21.48 21.86

Chardonnay c 3580 4287 4592 4443 19.30 21.20 21.60 22.00

Merlot c 3580 4287 4592 4443 19.30 21.20 21.60 22.00

Pinot Noir c 3673 4430 4731 4585 19.99 21.86 22.26 22.64

Sauvignon Blanc c 3742 4483 4777 4635 19.18 21.07 21.48 21.87

Viognier c 3742 4483 4777 4635 19.18 21.07 21.48 21.87

Cabernet Franc c 3742 4483 4777 4635 19.18 21.07 21.48 21.87

Cabernet c 3870 4587 4882 4739 19.38 21.25 21.66 22.04

Sauvignon

Tempranillo c 4135 4844 5126 4985 19.16 20.92 21.30 21.66

Syrah/Shiraz sw 5164 5814 6063 5983 21.56 23.18 23.62 23.83

Chenin Blanc sw 5174 5826 6074 5994 21.56 23.18 23.62 23.83

Gewurztraminer sw 5174 5826 6074 5994 21.56 23.18 23.62 23.83

Zinfandel sw 5174 5826 6074 5994 21.56 23.18 23.62 23.83

Pinot Grigio sw 5210 5838 6080 6009 22.58 24.13 24.57 24.75 SUMMARY

Source: Average Grapevine Climate Groupings Developed by Jones 2006. Fitted line Plot Chardonnay Data Set 6000

5000 2010)

4000 F- (1981

3000 GDD Predicted Linear GDD Log. (GDD) R² = 0.7672 2000

1000 Vineyard Growing Degree Days ° Days Growing Degree Vineyard

0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Vineyard Quality Points Historical NM Central Feature Summation Scale GDD above 50°F for the period April 1-October 31

Region Growing Degree Day °F Grape Varieties

A Below 3,400 degree days Riesling

Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot Noir, Sauvignon Blanc, Viognier, Cabernet B 3,400 - 3,900 degree days Franc, Cabernet Sauvignon

C 3,900 - 4,500 degree days Tempranillo

D 4,500 - 5,200 degree days Syrah/Shiraz, Chenin Blanc, Gewurztraminer, Zinfandel

E above 5200 degree days Pinot Grigio Outcomes Delineating and measuring forecasted historical and future growing degree days and mean air temperatures in relation to current vineyard locations reveal five measurable outcomes:

 Projected changes in climate structure (2°C increase in air temperatures) will alter wine growing regions in New Mexico.

 Growing degree days (4,000+) in southern regions currently exceed all heliothermic baseline conditions based on average world-wide premium grapevine development.

 Central New Mexico vineyards are forecasted to warm (1-2°C), mirroring climate conditions currently logged in the southern region of New Mexico.

 Projected warming trends (increase of 385-770 GDD) spatially associate northern New Mexico’s climate as a future premier grape growing region, thus making the Northern vineyards an attractive location in a changing climate.

 Regression analysis (R² < 0.77) accounts for temporal changes in climate, inferring that quality point awards associated with premier wine locations is a moderate variable to predict current or future climate structure in New Mexico. Suggested Research

Delineate and map projected changes in climate structure where future suitable habitat for wine growing regions exists.

Study impact of new Ag in non-traditional Ag eco zones. NEW MEXICO VINEYARD LOCATION WORK FLOW DIAGRAM VIVAC WINERY CORRALES WINERY ESTRELLA DEL NORTE VINEYARD CAMINO REAL WINERY LA ESPERANZA VINEYARD LUNA ROSSA WINERY LA VINA WINERY