The Grape Debate GIF Image Credit: http://www.buzzfeed.com/sandraeallen/how-climate-change-will-end-wine-as-we-know-it#.qs1mqWzzq SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF FUTURE CLIMATE STRUCTURE IN NEW MEXICO VITICULTURE REGIONS Research Question Identify and quantify how suitable growing zones for the grapevine are impacted by future climate change R+W Objectives Identify best Agricultural Uses of the Arizona Water Settlement Act. Predict climate structure based on historical and projected average growing season air temperatures and growing degree days. Locate and assess appropriate cultivars and sites. Define general suitability for NM viticulture. Vineyard Physiography Geographical extent corresponds to a mean annual temperature of 10°C to 20°C Average annual temperature correlates well to global vineyard locations. Grape growth and wine quality are a function of local and regional climate factors. Source: http://www.thirtyfifty.co.uk/images/World-wine-map.gif Global Wine Production Global wine production in 2013 reached 7.4 billion gallons, matching record highs from 2006 (OIV 2013). 2014 saw a 6% decrease. (OIV 2014). Currently, the most popular varietals cultivated worldwide are Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Tempranillo, Chardonnay, and Syrah. Fifteen varietals accounted for half of the world’s harvested grapes in 2010, versus twenty-one in 2000. Red varieties are planted more frequently than white, occupying fifty-five percent of area under the vine as of 2010 (Anderson and Aryal 2013). Wine History in the USA Vine cuttings imported from Parras, Mexico in 1629, traveled with missionaries north via the El Camino Real to a Piro Indian pueblo south of Socorro named Senecú. (Street 2012). First documented wine grape planted in North America or New Mexico was a variety of Vitis vinifera, commonly called the “mission grape.” Vikings and Vinland +/- 1000 AD Jamestown, Virginia 1607 AD "Usa edcp location map" by Uwe Dedering - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Usa_edcp_location_map.svg#/media/File:Usa_edcp_location_map.svg Best Agricultural Uses of the Arizona Water Settlement Act for Catron, Grant, Hidalgo and/or Luna Counties NM Crop/Product Annual Gross Revenue, $ per acre-ft of Irrigation Water Consumed • Pecans 1,000 • Chile 1,600 • Onions 5,000 • Wine Grapes 1,900 • Wine 19,000 • Lavender Oil 8,000 Source: nmawsa.org/library/reports/best-agricultural-uses Best Agricultural Uses of the Arizona Water Settlement Act Water and Funds Source: nmawsa.org/library/reports/best-agricultural-uses Berkeley Earth analysis, 2015 2015 was unambiguously the hottest year on record. For the first time in recorded history, the Earth's temperature is clearly more than 1.0 C (1.8 F) above the 1850-1900 average. 2015 was approximately 0.1 degree C (about 0.2 degrees F) hotter than 2014, which had tied with 2005 and 2010 as the previous hottest years. 2015 set the record with 99.996% confidence. The analysis covered the entire surface of the Earth, including temperatures from both land and oceans. The warming was not uniform, and for the contiguous United States, it was the 2nd warmest year ever (+1.33 C), surpassed only by 2012. The National Climate Assessment 2014 report that summarizes the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. Data Source: Texas Tech University A team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee produced the report, which was extensively reviewed by the public and experts, including federal agencies and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences. http://www.globalchange.gov National Climate Assessment U.S. Southwest Increased heat and changes to rain and snowpack will send ripple effects throughout the region affecting 56 million people. Population expected to increase to 94 million by 2050 – and its critical agriculture sector. Severe and sustained drought will stress water sources, already over-utilized in many areas, forcing increasing competition among farmers, energy producers, urban dwellers, and ecosystems for the region’s most precious resource. CO 2 levels have increased to 400 ppm, higher than any time in at least the last one million years. Specialty Crops More than half of the nation’s high-value specialty crops, including certain fruits, nuts, and vegetables, come from the Southwest. A longer frost-free season, less frequent cold air outbreaks, and more frequent heat waves accelerate crop ripening and maturity, reduce yields of corn, tree fruit, and wine grapes, stress livestock, and increase agricultural water consumption. These changes are projected to continue and intensify, possibly requiring a northward shift in crop production, displacing existing growers and affecting farming communities. California’s Central Valley The area capable of consistently producing grapes required for the highest-quality wines is projected to decline by more than 50% by late this century. The 2015 year delivered California vintners and growers across the state another stellar vintage. Despite a lighter crop—compared to last year—from one of the earliest seasons on record. http://www.discovercaliforniawines.com/2015-california-winegrape-harvest/ Terroir Geography plays a vital role in how these individual local and regional climate characteristics affect vineyard practices; this geospatial relationship between land and vine is referred to as terroir. The root of the word 'terroir' is 'terre', which in French means 'land' or 'earth'. Climate, soil, terrain, and tradition are common variables used to describe terroir. Secondary variables such as localized bacteria and wild yeast growth (brettanomyces), found in specific ecological regions, may be present on the skins of the grape, translating into wine characteristics and complexity reflective of their terroir. Central Vineyards REGION ACRES Northern Vineyards REGION ACRES ACEQUIA VINEYARDS NEW MEXICO WINE REGIONS BLACK MESA WINERY N 3 & WINERY C 1 ESTRELLA DEL CORRALES WINERY C 3 Northern Region NORTE/SANTA FE CASA ABRIL VINEYARDS N 5 VINEYARDS & JACONA VALLEY WINERY C 4 WINERY N 2 CASA RONDENA LA CHIRIPADA WINERY N 2 WINERY C 3 GUADALUPE VIVAC WINERY N 10 VINEYARDS C 3 WINES OF THE SAN JUAN N 5 MILAGRO WINERY C 3 LAS NUEVE NINAS N 1 PASANDO TIEMPO C 1 PONDEROSA VALLEY Total 7 28 VINEYARD & WINERY C 12 TIERRA ENCANTADA VINEYARDS C 4 Central Region JARAMILLO VINEYARDS C 5 CAMINO REAL Southeast Vineyards REGION ACRES WINERY C 3 Total 11 42 Arena Blanca Winery SE 11 HEART OF THE DESERT SE 20 DOS VIEJOS WINERY SE 27 TULAROSA VINEYARDS SE 5 BALZANO VINEYARD & WINERY SE 4 Total 5 67 Southwest Vineyards REGION ACRES FORT SELDEN WINERY SW 2 Estate Vineyards LA ESPERANZAVINEYARD & 34 WINERY SW 4 Southwest Region Southeast Region Gallons Produced (2012) SHATTUCK VINEYARD SW 2 742,873 RIO GRANDE VINEYARDS & WINERY SW 8 SOMBRA ANTIGUA WINERY SW 14 LA VINA WINERY SW 27 Study Area LUNA ROSSA WINERY SW 32 Wine Acres in Production BELLANZI WINERY SW 83 787 ac GRUET SW 144 NEW MEXICO VINEYARDS SW 154 ST CLAIR WINERY SW 180 SE 67 Total 11 650 SW C 42 650 N 28 VINEYARD REGIONS AND ECOLOGICAL REGIONS 95% of the current vineyard locations in New Mexico are found in the Source: Bernd Maier Extension Viticulture Specialist New Mexico State Chihuahuan desert and Arizona/New Mexico Plateau Ecological Regions. University. Mapping Vineyard Locations: Imagery Visualization Methods Image © 2013 DigitalGlobe Mapping Vineyard Locations: Site Verification Image © 2013 DigitalGlobe American Viticulture Areas (AVA) American Viticulture Areas (AVA) are federally established geographic regions that permit wine producers to label their products based on a prominent landmarks or significant physical features in a growing area that more accurately describe the origin of their wines. AVA designated regions assist consumers in attributing how vineyard location affects the Quality Craftsmanship Reputation Other individual characteristics of a wine grape AVA Petition Requirements: 1) The name of the proposed AVA is culturally significant. 2) The area within the boundary is significantly different than the area adjacent to the new boundary. 3) The natural features within the area affecting viticulture make it distinctive. Tax and Trade Bureau (2012) AVA Geographic Attributes Climate parameters including temperature, precipitation, wind, fog, solar orientation and radiation, growing degree days and other climate information are recorded. Geological formations, landforms, and geophysical events such as earthquakes, eruptions, and major floods are documented. Soils series are described denoting parent material, texture, slope, permeability, soil reaction, drainage, and fertility. Physical features such as flat, hilly, or mountainous topography, geographical formations, bodies of water, watersheds, irrigation resources, and other physical features are noted. Elevation data containing the minimum and maximum elevations of the proposed area are submitted Adopted from: TitleTitle 27: Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms; CFR part 9— American Viticultural Areas; (9.12) Subpart B — AVA Petition Requirements. Sky Islands /Pine Mountain-Cloverdale Peak AVA Image Location: http://www.pinemountainappellation.com American Viticulture Areas (AVA) are federally Mayacamas Mountain Range that separates the Napa and Sonoma AVAs established geographic regions that permit wine producers to label their products based on a prominent landmarks or significant physical features in a growing area that more accurately