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Reproduction in full or in part of La reproduction, dmepartielle, this microform is governed by de oette microforme est soumise the Canadian Copyright Act, B la Loi canadienne sur le droit R-SIC. 1970, c. C-30, and d'auteur, SRC 1970, c. G30, et subsequentamendments. ses amendements subs6quents. TIIE SERIAL RAPIST'S SPATIAL

PATTERN OF TARGET SELECTION

by Jonathan Douglas Alston

B.Sc. Brigham Young University 1992

THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILPENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in the School of Criminology

Copyright Jonathan D. Alston SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY

August 1994

All rights reserved. This work may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without permission of the author. L'AUTEUR A ACCORDE UNE LICENCE IRREVOCABLE EI'NON BXCLUSlVE PERME'ITANT ALABlBLIOTHEQrn NATIONALE DU CANADA DE REPRODDUIRE, PRELps DEERJBUER OUVENDREDESCOPIESDESA mEsEDE~haANIERBET WSQUELQUEFORACBQUECESOIT POUR METIRE DES EXIMPLAIRES DE CETTE THESE A LA DISPOSITION DES

THE AUTHOR RETAINS OOWNERSHIP L'AUTEUR CONSERVE LA PROPRIETE OFTHECOPYRIGHTINHISMER DU DROlT D'AUTEUR QUI PROTEGE THESIS.mTHETHESISNOR SA THESE M LA THESE NI DES SUB!3TANTUK EXTRACT'S FROM IT EXilWTs SUBSTANTIElS DE CEUE MAYBE~OROTLiERWISE CINEDOIVENT~IMPRIMESOU REPRODUCED~OUTIIIS/HER AUTREMENT REPRODUiTS SANS SON BERMISSION. AflTORISATION. Approval

Jonathan Douglas Alston

Degree : Master of Arts

Pitfe af Thesis: The Serial Rapist's /Pattern of Target Selection

Chaler : Ezzat Fattah, Phd.

$gtfia%i'mntinghi Phd .. ~eniod~trpe'rvisor Professor School of Criminology Sfwn Fraser University

pat1 J. Bkantin , J.D., Dip-Crim. (Cantab) Professor School of Criminology Simon Fraser University

- --dngs tad, W. A. External Examiner Director Coordinated Law Enforcement Unit (CLEU) Victoria, B.C. I fiereby grant ?a Sirrua Frassr UniversiTy the right to Iecc my thesis, project or extendea esscj

This thesis exaaines the victim selec~ionpattern of serial rapists in against several models derived from Environmental Criminology- Information about offender activity nodes and routine pathways was compared with information about the location of initial contact scenes of the offenses. The comparisons were made using Canter and Larkin's f1993) circle and

Tange tests and the underlying Geometry of Crime Model of Brantingharn and Brantingham (1981, 1991). Rossmots (1993) Criminal Geographic Targeting model was used to answer a number of subsidiary questions, Data for a population of thirty British Columbia series were selected from case files held by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RW) at "Em division headquarters in . The files contained sufficient information to permit recreation of portlons of each offender's routine activity space. Each file provided information about the offender's residence at the time an offence occurred and about the initial contact scene of that offence. Additional information collected for many of the offenders included routes commonly taken by the offender and the location of past residences, work locations, friendst residences, family members' residences, and places of vorship. The location of the initial contact scene for each was compared via measured distances to the imputed routine activity area or awareness space of the offender. These distances

iii - constituted the unit cf analysis used in the research. Results of the research support the importance of the serial rapist's avareness space in shaping victim selection patterns. The initial contact scenes were consistently found to be close to the activity nodes and especially the routine pathways of this serial rapist population. Although this thesis is a pioneer study and is essentially exploratory in nature there appears to be great potential for studying the relationship between initial contact scenes and the awareness space of violent serial criminals. This research suggests that the target selection process used by serial rapists is not random and may be predictable. If these hypotheses could be verifiedby additional research, it would h~lpidentify information that, if accurately collected, would greatly enhance the investigative and linkage analysis capabilities of crime analysis units. A number of people were instrumental in assisting me complete this work. I would like to acknowledge Dr. Patricia Brantingham who provided considerable guidance and invaluable support. I would als~like to acknowledge Dr. Paul Brantingham for his assistance and guidance. The Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System (VICLAS) unit consisting of Cpl. Keith Davidson, Cpl. Rob Lamb, and Cpl. Yme Smid offered invaluable support and suggestions on how to write a thesis that would have practical usefulness. The victims of these terrible crimes and their accounts offered the constant inspiration to complete a work that would assist law enforcement personnel jn the investigation of these crimes and the quick apprehension of these criminals. A number of others offered great support, most notably my wife Jenny who makes all the effort worthwhile. Table of Contents

ApprovaI Page i i

Abstract iii - iv

Acknowledgemen ts v

Table of Contents iri

Chapter One: Introduction

Chapter Two: Review of Literature

Chapter Three: Research Design

Chapter Four: Results of Research

Chapter Five: Subsidiary Questions

Chapter Six: Conclusion

Bib1i ography

Appendix A: Series Classification

Appendix B: Series Types

Appendix C: Frequency Tab1es

vi Chapter One: Introduction

A great amount of connotative baggage is carried with the I term "serial rapist" - A common conception of such a person is that he2 is a lonely, sexually frustrated individual who suffers violent, obsessive fantasies to the point of psychosis- This offender is thought to stalk his victims like a hunter stalks his prey and to be remorseless, cruel, and unfeeling. John Horace Oughton was just such a character. Known as the 'Taperbag Rapistw\ Oughton terrorized the lower mainland' of British Columbia from 1977 to 1985. He was involved in at least 81 sexual incidents, although police investigators believe he may have been responsible for something between 150 and 200 separate incidents. Oughton's offenses were particularly cruel in that his preferred victims were young girls between 10 and 15 years

The term "serial sexual assa~lter*~is technically more accurate for such offenders in Canada. Rape legislation in the United States and sexual assault legislation in Canada, as defined in sections 271-273 of the Criminal Code of Canada, are largely consistent although there are important differences. Few researchers differentiate between the terms and in this thesis they are used synonymously. Ply own definition of a serial rapist will be outlined in chapter 3. Of the 13,416 adult persons charged with sexual assault in Canada in 1992, 98% were male. Of those 2,072 youths charged with sexual assault, 97% were male. Therefore, referring to the rapist as "hen is appropriate (Source: Canadian Crime Statistics, 1992, Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics, p . 29).

me lover mainland is a large geographical region which encoapasses the city of Vancouver and its suburbs- of age. His attacks usually involved two or three victims.

In the 81 confirmed sexual assault incidents there were almost

140 victims.

Oughton had a well-developed modus operandi, He would attack his victims in parks and wooded areas alongside roadways or school yards. Once he had decided when and where to initiate his attack Oughton would hide himself where he could see potential victims. After selecting his -rictim(s)

Oughton would entice tha into the bush area away from sight.

He often asked his victim(s) to help him look for his dog that, he claimed, was lost in the bcsh. At other times he was more direct and would threaten to kill the victims if they did not follow him into the bush. Once the victim(s) were away from direct view Oughton would force them to perform and submit to sexual acts, threatening to kill them or their family members if they refused to cooperate. Oughton was given the moniker "Paperbag Rapist" when, in a few of the cases, he wore a paperbag over his head to disguise himself.

He often blindfolded his victims as well. Oughton further disguised himself with wigs, coloured contacts, and theatrical makeup. This was at least part of the reason why he was able to avoid suspicion for such a long time-

The Oughton series is of special significance because of the large number of offenses attributed to him. The series and his story, will be discussed in more depth in Chapter 5.

Oughton is described here because he represents the typical conception of the serial sexual assaulter held by many

Canadians. In truth, he is very atypical. Much more common is the father who sexually his wife and children, or an individual in a position of authoriry who sexually abuses those in his or her care.4 Jiwa and Ogilvie (1993) noted in a special report on sex offenders in a British Columbia newspaper that a Roman Catholic Priest, John Monaghan,

sexually abused an estimated 495 children over a 34 year

period. They also mentioned a Kootenay based dentist, Masura Fujibayashi, who committed an estimated 247 acts of sexual misconduct against his young patients over a 26 year period. More often referred to as molesters than as serial rapists, these types of offenders nonetheless engage in virtually the same acts and cause a great deal of harm. Only the level of familiarity between offender and victim usually differentiates the two types of sex offenders. Taking into consideration these more ubiquitous forms of sexual assault, it is important to realize that serial sexual assault is not an uncommon social problem.

Rape as a Common Social Problem: The Influence of Culture This thesis is not designed to explain why sexual assault or serial sexual assault is a common social problem. Nor is it an exposition on the psychodynamics of serial sexual assaulters that attempts to understand how individual offenders assimilate this crime into their behaviour patterns. It is important to recognize, however, that understanding what causes individuals to become serial sexual assaulters is an

' As defined in section 153 of the Criminal Code of Canada. offenders. A brief review of the literature on why sdr'ial 1 ---- - rape occurs is, therefore, a valuable prechrsor €0 the tS&Xfik , - JL body of this Lhesis.

Of the myexplanations for why serial rape occurs, the explanation best suited to the pareicular theoretical r orientation of this thesis is the idea that the prevalence of sexual assault is directly related with the specifltc mores, -" folkways, and norms concerning sexualiw of a given cuxture. -+ In short, rape is directly affected by culture. The thesis is base3 on theory that treats serial sex offenders as essentially *normalw people when it comes to how they behave in a large part of their everyday lives. This thesis will discuss how much wn~~lNliving influences the rrpatia'l decisions and movement patterns of serial rapists when they are twitting their offenses* While we may wish for serial rapists to be unusual, like Lombrosofs atavfst, in all aspects of their offenses it may be that their dysfunction displays I itself in their cr5minal acts but, as will be explored and resolved in this thesis, they act wnormalw in how they seafch

for victims to sexually assault. That is, they utilize the I same search pattern that they, or any normal person, would use

1, to search for a place to eat or drink, to buy a new set of I tires, or to go shopping- This ability to function and act *I n-lly E&&S the sex offender much more like a riext door neiabour than the stereotyped conception held by $0 many. Therefore an emm5natian of culture aad how it influences an I individoal's acceptance of this pattern of important. In a cross-cultural examination of the cultural context of sexual assault, Sanday (1981) found that rape rates vary between different cultures and these rates are dependant on distinguishable variables. The sample was comprised of tribal societies found throughout the world. Sanday classified these societies into categories labelled by her as rape free, rape rare, or rape prone according to the incidence of rape in their culture. In a rape free culture sexual assault is extremely rare or may never occur. In rape rare societies sexual assault is present, though at low levels, and rape itself is considered an extremely deviant act. In a rape prone society sexual assault is an accepted practise that is ceremonial (e-g,, the ravishing of the women of a newly conquered tribe) and/or is used to punish women. Rape rates are quite high in this type of society. Of the 95 tribal societies included in SandayEs sample, 45 147%) were classified as rape free, 33 (35%) were classified as rape rare, and 17 (18%) were classified as rape prone. Sanday reports that rape prone cultures are characterized by high rates of interpersonal violence, male role dominance, and stringent gender role expectations- She suggests that a significant portion of the American male population adheres to cultural norms consistent with this rape prone model- She speculates tbat they do so because they feel alienated by a society in vhich they are unable to fulfil their role expectations (i .em, as the primary and comprehensive source of incame for their fani1ies)- She also speculates tbat they have learned that violence is an acceptable avenue for venting

frustration or attaining material rewards. This condition,

she concludes, has led to a situation in which many males

withir! North American culture accept rape itself as a

reasonable way of venting frustration and getting what they

want.

Brownmiller (1975) argues that western culture, not

merely an alienated few, is tolerant to rape. She explains

that tolerance and acceptance of rape can be attributed to

cultural influence and that this tolerance has existed

throughout human existence. Brownmiller notes several

historical exzmples when rape was a culturally endorsed

behaviour. She argues that the rape of civilian women in the

World Wars and the Vietnam war was considered normal

behaviour. She states that mob violence, including rape

against African-American slaves, women of conquered Native

American nations, and of Mormon women in Missouri in the mid-

1800s, received cultural sanction, at least at a local level.

Lottes (1988) also discusses the socialization of rape myths and how they affect -

Erikson (1966) in a classic study of deviance suggests

that the social boundaries of acceptable behaviour are fluid.

Unacceptable behaviours vill be defined as "criminalw or

"deviant" by the society at large and those who transgress

these "lawsw vill be suitably punished. Crime, then, serves

the function of reminding citizens what the boundaries of

acceptable behaviour are- Therefore, cultural tolerance or

intolerance of rape, or any other crime, can be attributed to the specific location of these boundaries at a given time. Malamuth and Check (1983) furthered the idea that the incidence of rape can be attributed to culture. They exposed a group of known rapists and a group of non-rapist males to several different tape recordings of simulatzd sexcal assaults. They then questioned both groupF and found that, like rapists, non-rapists were aroused by the tape recording of a supposed sexual assault as long as the victim eventually enjoyed the assault, The non-rapists generally ceased to be aroused if the recording made it clear that the victim was not enjoying herself, was continually frightened or was really being hurt. The rapists were, for the most part, continually aroused by the tape recording regardless of the victim's response to the assault. Malamuth and Check argue that this response in the non-rapist group indicates an assimilation of certain rape myths among a large proportjon of men (i .e., that women secretly desire to be raped). This conclusion is partly supported by an earlier study by Malamuth, Haber, and Feshbach (1980) that found that exactly half of the men in their sample of non-rapists indicated that they would sexually assault a woman if assured that they would not be caught and punished. This suggests that a large proportion of men do not understand the full impact of this crime and the real harm that it causes. Further that the tolerance of rape is largely due to cultural influence is provided by Scully and Marolla (1984, 1985)- The researchers examined how rapists - are able to justify rape as an acceptable behaviour and found that three factors : re7renge, punishment, and the "collective

liability of women" were the justifications advanced by rapists for a large portion of the they committed. Revenge and punishment were often presented as indirect motives. For example, an argwnent with a woman caused one subject to find and rape a stranger. Another offender raped the wife of a man who owed him money and refused to pay the debt (suggesting perhaps that the rapist viewed the spouse as a commodity and that payment could be exacted by degrading the man's wife). The primary motive underlying these acts, according to Scully and Marolla, supported by many of the rapists' statements, is power. One serial rapist believed that his motivations for rape were related to his perception that women always thought they were better than he was and that by raping women he could exert complete power or dominance over the victim, thereby "putting women in their place." At least two other rapists, both serial offenders, related similar motivations. Offenders saw rape as an opportunity to seize what was not offered, a method of control or intimidation, and a "challengew or as one serial rapist stated, "after a rape, I always felt like I had just conquered something, like I had just ridden the bull at Gilley's" (p. 74). The idea that power or domination are essential motives for sexual assault is prevalent in research on this crime (Browniailler, 1975; Groth and Burgess, 1978; Groth, 1979; Lisak and Roth, 1985; Lisak and Roth, 1990; Halamuth, 1986; Morris, 1987; Ressler, Douglas, and Burgess 1983; and Scott, 1982). It is not known to what degree these findings can be generalized to serial rapists although it is possible that serial rapists are motivated in the same way as non-serial rapists. This idea is supported by the fact that many of the statements throughout the paper and designated as "typical of many rapistsw were stated by serial offenders.

A Taxonomy of Serial Sexual Assaul ters This crime occurs at all levels of association and

familiarity between offender and victim. A number of works, prominent among them Amir (1971); Hazelwood and Burgess (1987b); Prentky, Cohen, and Seghorn (1987); and Rada (1979) classify sexual assaulters by modi operandi, by motivation,

and by familiarity with their preferred victim(s ) . These works, and others, identlfy at least five types of sexual assault distinguished by level of familiarity: , familial rape, , , and stranger rape. Marital rape occurs when a husband or wife sexually

assaults his or her spouse. A crime between common law partners would be included in this type of sexual assault. Evidence indicates that this type of sexual assault is the most common form of sexual assault, (Doron 1980; Frieze, 1983; Hanneke and Shields, 1985; and Sigler and Haygood, 1987); although analysis of official statistics are complicated by an extremely low reporting rate. In an American study, Doron (1980) found that 7% of women reported being a victim of * marital rape at least once in their lifetime whereas only 1% of women reported being a victim of any other type of rape. Familial rape or incest occurs when the offender and victim are related through blood, adoption, marriage, and remarriage but excluding relationships covered under marital

rape. The sexual assault of a daughter by her father would be an archetypal form of this type of sexual assault. Date rape and acquaintance rape are characterized by a temporary relationship between the offender and victim that existed before the crime occurred. Date rape usually occurs between an offender and victim who have formed a personal relationship whereas acquaintance rape is characterized by a relationship where the offender and victim know little of one another save perhaps a name or mutual friend. Stranger rape is characterized by the lack of any formal or informal relationship: the offender and victim have no personal contact prior to the commission of the offense. This particular form of sexual assault will be fully defined and discussed in detail in Chapter 3 of the thesis. The first four types of sexual assault: marital, familial, date, and acquaintance sexual assault are all much more common than stranger rape, though they have relatively low reporting rates (Koss, 1988; Koss, 1992; and Risin and

Koss, 1988). Prieur and Rowles (1992) report that at least two-thirds of rape victims knew the offender previously. In spite of this, most of the attention on sexual assault both in the 9edia and in the criminal justice system focuses. on stranger to stranger sexual assault. All types of sexual assault are devastating to the victim. The four most common forms of sexual assault must be dealt vith by legislators, educators, and the population at large. The responsibility for dealing with these types of sexual assault cannot rest solely with law enforcement personnel. Neither the criminal justice system generally nor the police more specifically are equipped to deal with this problem except in a reactive way. In 1992, the latest year for which crime statistics are available, there were 33,017 reported incidents of sexual assault, 937 reported incidents of sexual assault with a weapon, and 398 reported incidents of aggravated sexual assault. In total about 125 reported incidents of sexual assault (all three levels combined) occur per 100,000 persons in Canada for 1992'. Traditionally, British Columbia has had a higher rate of crime than the national average and is usually the highest of all provinces in rates of violent crime. In 1992 there were about 173 reported incidents of sexual assault (all three levels combined) per 100,000 persons in B.C. (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics, 1994).

As these numbers suggest, the police cannot reasonably be expectedto protect citizens frompersonal crimes committed by people well known to them. Such crimes usually occur in private. The police can onlyrespond to calls for assistance, usually after the crime is complete.

TO place this in perspective, the 1992 rate was 2.7 per 100,000 persons- The robbery rate was 121 pef 100,000 persons. The rate for all three levels of non-sexual assault CCCC s. 266 - 268) combined was 791 per 100,000 persons. The police, however, have much broader responsibility in public space. Stranger rape frequently begins in public space and is therefore of great concern for law enforcement. The police are highly concerned with protecting the public from criminals who are unknown to them. Stranger rape is uniquely different from other in that the victim is often unable to provide an adequate description of the offender. This may explain why the sexual assaulter who attacks strangers is often able to become a serial sexual offender. LeBeau ( l987a) reports that most apprehended serial rapists differ from at large (i-e., unapprehended) serial rapists in that apprehended offenders are more often in subsequent attacks to prey on non-strangers and therefore behave like single rape offenders (p. 326). This thesis focuses on serial sexual assault from a law enforcement perspective and thus centres on stranger-stranger sexual assault, although a few cases of acquaintance rape will be considered. It is hoped that, ultimately, this research will prove useful in future sex crimes analysis conducted by police linkage analysis units.

Prerequisites for a Serial Rape: Opportunity to Commit Crime There are at least two essential qualities that must coincide if a target is to be selected and a crime is to occur. First, there must be a motivated offender willing to conunit the crime. Second, there must be the opportunity to commit the crime. Opportunity implicitly includes the requisite skill to carry out the crime- For example, an individual may be motivated to steal an automobile and may at some time come across an unlocked car, but if he or she does not know how to defeat the ignition lock they cannot steal it. This lack of skill means the potential offender does not have a real opportunity to commit the crime. Criminologists have advanced many theories to explain how people become motivated to commit crimes, but few theories examine how opportunity or physical environment affects criminzl behaviour, Admittedly, there is a long standing notion that physical environment affects criminal behaviour but statistical research and comprehensive theory in the area is relatively recent. Brantingham and Brantingham (1993a) for example, note several examples of how various statutes and administrative measures were used by different governments throughout history to control the physical opportunity to commit crime. They mention a statute, also described by Plucknett (1960), enacted by King Edward I in 1285 that required property owners to cut down trees and bushes along roadways near their property. It was hoped this would lower rates of armed robbery. Brantingham and Brantingham, quotlng a work by Lowman (1983), describe how street lights were originally introduced in cities with the hope that they would make the streets safer at night. In modern times people often lock their doors, set timers, have a neighbour collect their Gaily newspaper if they are away, pick up their children from school, avoid dark alleys at night, and practise many other routine behaviours designed to reduce the opportunities < presented to potential offenders. Recently, academic research

13 under the rubrics of Environmental Psychology, Pattern Theory, the Routinr Activities Approach, Environmental Criminology and others have uncovered some intriguing details about the relationship between crime and the environment. A relevant portion of this research will be discussed in the next chapter. The theoretical framework of the thesis will be built upon the research and suppositions of Environmental Criminology as developed by Brantingham and Brantingham (1984, 1991). The theory suggests that most individuals, including serial rapists, spend most of their daily life engaged in non- criminal activities such as work, school, recreation, and activities with family and friends. The immediate area surrounding these particular locations form what are called "activity nodes.ff Presumably, the most central node will be the offender's residence while other activity nodes such as work, school, a boy or girlfriend's residence, or a shopping centre will branch out from the central node and determine an offender's routine pathways. Moving to and from these nodes creates a knowledge of the area called the "awareness space." Environmental Criminology suggests that offenders will choose targets within their own awareness spaces. Exploration of unknown areas will not be part of the target selection process. It should be noted that locations such as tourist sites, landmarks, rivers, mountains, well-known buildings, and highways may become a part of the person's awareness space without actually being a part of their activity space. In

Chapter 3 it will be argued that including highways near the offender's primary activity node as a portion of the awareness space is a legitimate procedure. The suppositions made by Environmental Criminology are distinctive as the theory, in essence, is suggesting that the need to feel secure or familiar within an area is more important to the offender than the need to minimize chances of recognition or detection, especially if the crime does not

unfold according to the offender's expectations (e.g. , the victim escapes, a bystander interrupts the crime, or a witness views the crime taking place). Detection and recognition are, of course, much more likely if an offender is known and associated with an area. Admittedly, this is a simplified description of the much more comprehensive theory. Environmental Criminology will be discussed in greater depth in the next chapter.

A Routine Activities Approach to Serial Sexual Assault Environmental Criminologists have examined the spatial activity characteristic of a number of criminal behaviours but few have examined serial rape. An exception to this is a recent study by Canter and Larkin (1993) which examined the spatial activity of 45 British male serial rapists. This study will be discussed in the literature review of the next chapter but a few salient points in the research should be mentioned here. The researchers sought to test two hypotheses -- the marauder hypothesis and the commuter hypothesis - that both suggest that the selection of targets is highly dependent on the physical environment. The marauder hypothesis, based primarily on the assumptions of Environmental Criminology, suggests that the rapist uses his residence, or a relevant node of activity, as a base from which to commit his crimes. Therefore, the criminal range of the offender (the area in which the offender commits his crimes) will be completely overlapped by the individuals' home range (the area in which he goes through his routine behaviour). The hypothesis also suggests that the further the distance between the crimes the further will be the distance that the offender is travelling

from his home or base of activity. The commuter hypothesis suggests that the offsnder will travel out from his residence to a different area to commit his offenses. Therefore, the criminal range and the home range will not overlap. Using two tests called the circle and range tests, Canter and Larkin

found strong statistical support for the marauder hypothesis but little support for the commuter hypothesis. This is an important finding for researchers and particularly for law enforcement. If serial rapists were also found to exhibit distinct search patterns in North American cities, the police could modify their investigation efforts depending upon what type of serial rapist they are investigating (i.e., a marauder or a commuter). This would allow police to streamline their investigation efforts and ultimately apprehend more of these types of offenders. Although an excellent study, the applicability of the Canter and Larkin results to Canadian cities and Canadian serial rapists is questionable- Cross cultural comparisons of research, while important, are problematic. Patterns in microspatial behaviour of offenders that are true in England

may not be true in the United States or Canada. Most North

American cities have a different physical organization and

associated movement patterns than British cities. Most North

American cities, especially newer cities, expand in a grid pattern spanning outward from the city centre in symmetrical blocks, whereas the road networks of the older cities of

Europe usually expand outward irregularly from the city centre. Canter and Tagg ( 1975) note this phenomenon and other geographical features that may affect the spatial activity and movement patterns of an individual (e.g., rivers, castles, or major lancuarks). Although a few studies have identified target selection patterns for North American serial rapists that are similar to those found by Canter and Larkin, the same research has identified important differences (LeBeau 1987a, l987b).

Canter and Larkin's study has several other problems.

These will be noted in depth later in the thesis but one that is worthy of specific note at this point is that the circle and range tests wed to examine the commuter and marauder hypotheses are rather crude statistical tests. The tests work on the assumption that the researcher has an accurate database. However, police files on initial contact scenes for serial rape are incomplete at the best of times. Many offenses wiLl not be reported and those that are reported are often described inaccurately. Furthermore, some of the cases attributed to a particular serial rapist may not actually- have been c-itted by that offender. Many affenses committed by a particular serial rapist may not be linked by the police to that specific offender's serles.

The Thesis : Research Questions Although problematic, Canter and Larkin's study is an excellent starting point fo - establishing whether pat terns i~ this behaviour can be identified in different settings. The thesis will attempt to answer a number of significant questions. First, using the circle test, do a set of serial rapists in British Columbia exhibit the same tendency towards

marauder behaviour found in England by Canter and Larkin (1993)? Second, does the distance travelled to offend correlate positively with the distances between offenses within this B-C- serial rapist set i., the range test)? Third, can a more adequate test of domocentric and nodally influenced behavfour identify spatial patterns of target selection within this set of serial rapists? Finally, if the offender ' s routine pathways are incorporated into the analysis vill this strengthen the statistical resulis and improve the identification of spatial patterns in serial rape? The data set used in the thesis contains information about both the location of the off ender1s residence and other activity nodes such as work locations, friendsr residences, and other frequented locations at the time the offense occurred; and the location of the initial contact scene betveen the victi.m(s) and of fender(s) . This inforamtion makes it possible to extrapolate a vital portion of the offender's avareness space - Heasuring the distance between the activity node and the initial contact scene for many offenders and offenses will a1 lov the researcher to state whether particular serial rapists fit into an identifiable model in their

selection of targets.

The Thesis: Subsidiary Questions In addition to the research questions posed above this thesis will explare several subsidiary questions. The first of these questions centres on the behaviour pattern exhibited

in the offenses attributed to the series of John Horace

Oughton, the '*Paperbag Rapistw".and to the series of Clifford Robert Olson* Cf ifford Olson is the most notorious serial sex offender in B.C, history. In an 18 month period Olson abducted, tortured, and murdered 11 youngsters and sexually assaul ted at least 14 other strangers (in addition to several acquaintance sexual assaults j - The thesis will attempt to determine if a pattern can be identified in the Oughton and

OIson series. ought on*^ offenses will not be included in the statistical analysis of the broader serial rapist data set (except for the circle and range tests) as they might, because of their large number, skew the results and cccnclusions of the thesls- The Olson series will be included in the broader serial rapjst data set, althotigh a battery af the statistical tests wk 11 be conducted without this series to see whether the iacfusiaa of a high volqlece series changes the observed patterns- The Oughton and Olsonseries will be explored using an Environmental Caitinology test designed by Rossmo (1993) and described in Chapters 3 and 5. There are a number of other questions about serial rape that will be discussed but not fully addressed in the thesis.

The first of these will be to determine the utility of this research for exploring unsolved ( i .e - , of fender unki~awn) series. An example of how such research may be useful to investigative units such as the Violent Crime Linkage Analysis

System (VICLAS) of the RCHP will be noted. Second, the thesis will explore whether there is a temporal evolution in serial offense behaviour (i.e., do offenders start as marauders and become commuters or is the opposite true). Third, the thesis will try to establish whether a difference between violence escalating and non-escalating serial offenders in the selection of targets can be identified. Fourth, the thesis vill try to determine whether there is an identifiable difference between '"ffective" serial of fenders (n >5) and

"ineffectivew serial offenders (n <5). Chapter Two: Review of Literature

Unlike other repeat crimes such as serial , serial burglary, or serial robbery, serial rape has received little attention either in the media or in academia. There are many films, novels, and sensationalized "true crime" stories about such serial offenders as , Jeffrey Dalhmer, Clifford Olson, Bonnie and Clyde, John Dillinger an? Jesse James. Usually these types of crimes overshadow any sexual assaults committed by the same offender. This was evident in the case of Clifford Olson and the more recent case of Paul Teale (Swardson, 1993) who both committed a large number of sexual assaults but are more widely known for their homicide offenses. Possible reasons for this will not be addressed in this thesis. It is enough to say that the result has been a meagre amount of academic research on serial rape. This chapter first reviews the research literature that deals with serial rape and then reviews research on single rape that is relevant to a discussion of serial rapists. Although the serial rape research literature is valuable, most of it does not originate from an Environmental Criminology perspective. Nevertheless, a review of such research is important as it describes types of serial offenders and the nature of the crime. The chapter then reviews some of the more germane journey to crime research that focuses on rape (including a few works on serial rape) as well as other crimes. Finally, the chapter reviews works in Environmental Criminology that describe the theoretical framework of the thesis,

Serial Rape As mentioned in chapter 1 the terms "rapew and "sexual assault" have technical differences. Researchers rarely explain what behaviours constitute a rape or sexual assault in their particular study. Because of this only general statements can be made about each of these particular studies. This is a limitation but it allows the terms "rapeu and "sexual assault" to be used synonymously throughout this work. Canter and Larkin's (1993) research is one of the more valuable works on serial rape. This work was, of course, discussed earlier but not in detail. As mentioned earlier, Canter and Larkin examined the spatial activity of 45 British male serial rapists. All 45 rapists had been convicted of at least two rapes of women they had not known before the offense

(i-e., they were stranger rapists). A total of 251 rapes had been committed by the sample with a mean of 5.6 rapes per offender and a range of 2 to 14 offenses. As mentioned earlier, the researchers tested two spatial activity hypotheses called the marauder hypothesis and the commuter hypothesis. Canter and Larkin found strong statistical support for the marauder hypothesis but not for the commuter hypothesis. They found that by using the two most widely separated crime scenes as diameter points of a circle it was likely that all offenses in a particular series would be encompassed by the circle and, more importantly, that the residence of the offender would also be found within the circular area. This was found to occur regardless of topographical and time discrepancies, suggesting that "as the crow flies" distances are more primary in the psychology of the offender than other forms of direct experience. Canter and Larkin then tested the range hypothesis, which states that the distance serial rapists travel to offend should correlate positively with the distances between offenses. They found strong statistical support for this hypothesis. The average minimum distance the rapists travelled from their base was 1.53 miles. The sample of serial rapists travelled a minimum of 0.61 miles from their residence or base of activity. This "minimum safe distance" is supposedly a buffer zone where an offender will likely not select victims for fear of recognition, a notion first suggested by Brantingham and Brantingham (1981). Canter and Larkin did note that there were sone individuals who exemplified the commuter offender schema. They suggest that more experienced serial rapists are more likely to become commuters a finding that, as will be shown later, is supported by the British Columbia offenders studied for this thesis. The National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime

(NCAVC), under the auspices of the Behavioral Science Services Unit of the FBI, has conducted numerous studies of serial crime, including serial rape. At one time the NCAVC conducted a number of crime analyst and profiling courses that- allowed them to collect a sizable amount of data on various types of serial crime. The researchers affiliated with the NCAVC have published results of their studies in both law enforcement and academic journals. The first of the NCAVC serial rape studies was published by Hazelwood and Burgess (1987a). Hazelwood and Burgess' research is unique in that it examines serial offenders from a law enforcement perspective. The stated purpose of their research was to produce findings that would be applicable to the investigation of these offenses. The researchers monitored interviews with 41incarcerated serial rapists responsible for 837 rapes and over 400 attempted rapes. The number of rapes committed by those in the sample ranged from 10 to 59. The researchers studied only serial rapists who had committed 10 or more rapes, a distinction that, as will be described in the next chapter, is problematic. The researchers felt that offenders who had committed 10 or more rapes had proven themselves quite effective in eluding law enforcement and, therefore, study of them was potentially more likely to assist law enforcement personnel in improving their investigative techniques. Hazelwood and Burgess did not note any minimum time frame in which these 10 rapes must have occurred to count for inclusion. The interviews were open-ended and generally unstructured and ranged in length from 4.5 to 12.5 hours. Areas of discussion included familial and demographic information, hobbies and pastimes, employment history, marital history, sexual history, suggestions on rape prevention for potential victims, and an extensive escription of the first, middle, and last rape they had committed. Hazelwood and Burgess did not draw conclusions in this article, stating that such information was forthcoming. One intriguing finding was that 40 of the 41 serial rapists reported consensual sexual activities at the time of their offenses, suggesting that the motivations for rape are not sexual but due to some deeper causal factor (perhaps power or anger). Hazelwood, Reboussin, and Warren (1989)also examined the NCAVC interview data and used the same standards for their research. This research focused on the relationship of force to victim resistance; on the pleasure experienced by the rapist; and on how these variables change over time. The researchers found that victim resistance was positively related both to the amount of pleasure experienced by the rapist and the duration of the offense. They also reported that there was no significant change over time in the amount of force used by the rapists. However, they were able to identify a sub-group of serial rapists (n= 10) who did show an increased level of force and which differed qualitatively from the group of non-increasers. Increasers differed significantly in the amount of force used in their last rape

(p= .OOO3), victim injury in their last rape (p= .001), the mean number of rapes (increasers = b0.7, non-increasers =

22.4, t= 2 -3 p<-051, and the mean number of days between rapes (increasers = 19.7, non-increasers = 55.2, t= 2.3 p<.05). Nine of the 10 increasers inflicted moderate- to fatal injuries during their last rape. Interestingly, no developmental differences were observed between the groups as measured by several developmental indices. Hazelwood, Reboussin, and Warren also reported that the entire sample of serial rapists differed greatly with respect to sexual behaviour during rape from a general sample of

rapists in a past study (Holstrom and Burgess, 1980). There were differences in the incidence of fellatio, anal

intercourse, and penetration with an inanimate object (a11 much higher in the serial rapist sample).

Hazelwood and Warren (1989) used the data and standards of the NCAVC research described earlier. In this work the researchers examined the demographics and characteristics of the serial rapist sample. They included descriptions of the following: age, employment, marital history, military history, measures of intelligence, arrest history, vehicles used in

\ offenses, hobbies andactivities, personality characteristics, socioeconomic background, quality of parental relationships, incidence of childhood abuse, sexual development and adult sexual behaviour, chronic behaviour patterns exhibited in childhood or adolescence, incidence of early institutionalization, victim demographics, the selection criteria used by the rapists, and their status of residence

(e-g-,alone, with parents, with spouse and children). The researchers found that, with regards to their status of residence at the time of their string of offenses, a majority of the serial rapists were not living alone. During their series of offenses only 22% - 24% were living alone. In most cases the rapist was living with his parents or spouse during the string of offenses. These findings contradict the commonly held notion that serial rapists are lonely, single men, bereft of any consensual sexual relations. With regard to victim demographics the researchers reported that, among other findings, only 8% of the rape offenses occurred with an

acquaintance, only 3% a neighbour, and only 2% a friend or date. A majority of the rapes were stranger rapes, which suggests that a major contributive factor to becoming a serial rapist and avoiding apprehension is attacking strangers, a conclusion supported by LeBeau (1987a). Hazelwood and Warren found that 98% of the rapists reported that availability was a primary reason for the selection of their victims. Sixty- six percent cited the importance of location in victim selection. Hazelwood and Warren (1990) again used the NCAVC interview data. The researchers examined specific aspects of the behaviour of these rapists during and following the commission of their sexual assaults. The researchers examined: premeditation, method of control, amount of force used, verbal activity during the offense, types and incidence of victim resistance, sexual dynamics, sexual dysfunction experienced by the offender, the presence and role of alcohol and drugs, post-offense behaviour, and of particular relevance to this thesis, methods of approach and methods of evading detection. The researchers distinguished three different methods of approach. These methods of approach are relevant- to the definition of serial rapist and serial rape noted in Chapter 3 (pp. 40-41). The confidence or "con" approach necessitates an ability to interact with women. It accounted for 24% of the first rapes, 35% of the middle rapes, and 41% of the last rapes. The blitz approach, in which the rapist uses a direct and injurious assault to subdue the victim, was used in 17-

23% of the rapes. The surprise approach, which involves the rapist waiting for the victim or approaching her while she is sleeping, accounted for about half of the rapes. Hazelwood and Warren found that few of the rapists adopted any special methods of evading detection. The majority of these serial rapists (61-68%) did not dress in any special way (e, a disguise). Facial disguises were reportedly used in only 7-12% of the offenses. This is intriguing, for if serial rapists do exhibit domocentric or at least nodally centred behaviour it would suggest that serial rapists not only attack close to their awareness space, thereby increasing the chances that they will be recognized by the victim or witnesses, but that they will also usually not bother to disguise themselves, increasing even further the chance that they will be recognized. In addition to their work on serial rape, the NCAVC and affiliated researchers have published valuable information on serial sexual murderers. As will be explained in the next chapter, sexually related are included in the tabulation of serial rapes used in this thesis. Of this research Burgess and Hartman (1986); FBI (1985); Hazelwood,

Dietz, and Warren (1992); Ressler, Burgess, and Douglas (1988); Ressler, Burgess, Douglas, Hartman, and D9Agostino (1986); and Ressler, Burgess, Hartman, Douglas, and McCormack (1986) offer excellent insight into this crime and this type of criminal. James LeBeau has published several works on serial rape. His research on serial rape is based on a sample of rapes in a five year period (1971-1975) in San Diego, California. During this period there were 612 reported rapes that met LeBeauls standard for research. LeBeau (1984) examined the intraracial vs. interracial characteristics of repcrted rape offenses. Most studies report that rape is primarily an intraracial crime, though there is a significant proportion of rapes that are interracial, black offender-white victim being the most predominant type of interracial rape 1 . LeBeau found that, among many other things, the serial rapist (defined by LeBeau as an offender who commits two or more reported rapes before he is apprehended by the police) complicates the racial representation of offenders and the intra versus interracial proportion of the offenses. For example, in 1971 5 serial offenders were responsible for 23 black-white sexual assaults and 5 black-latino sexual assaults, thus contributing to the higher interracial proportion for that year. LeBeau (1985) examines the capacity of the serial ~f fender to skew descriptions, measurements, and

It should be noted that using official statistics to analyze different ratios of interracial rape is problematic. Empey and Stafford (1991), among many others, note that self- report and victimization studies suggest that the ploportion of crimes committed by blacks and whites differ from that suggested by official statistics. generalizations about the offense of rape. He uses the same sample and definitions used in his 1984 study. LeBeau discovered a clear indication that geographic locations and the ecological distribution of offenses vary radically from one year to the next. In this study, LeBeau also examined whether this crime followed the distance-decay effect proposed by Burgess (1925). He found support for this supposition and noted that serial offenders continue their series in the same relative area. He did not examine whether this area also encompasses the residence of the offender or an important activity node. LeBeau concludes that any numerical, geographical, and ecological descriptions concerning rape are short-lived or require revision after accounting for the effects of the serial offender which tend to skew findings, a conclusion supported by Groth, Longo, and McFadin (1982); Hamparian, Schuster, Dinitz and Corad (1978); and Wolfgang, Figlio, and Sellin (1972). The effect of serial rape on aggregate rape rates is also suggested in Lisak and Roth (1990) who reported that of the 15 rapists in their sample, 6 were serial offenders. These 6 serial rapists skewed many of the findings of their research. LeBeau (1987a) identified differences between forms of stranger rape, between stranger and non-stranger rape, and between serial and single offense rape. LeBeau found significant differences between the geographic nature of these types of offenders, At large i..unapprehended) serial offenders travelled the shortest distance with the victim

30 whereas single offense rapists travelled a relatively long

distance with the victim. More relevant to this thesis was the finding that serial of fenders, though they may travel long

distances to the crime scenes, will often restrict their

attacks within a small diameter. LeBeau cautions that this

finding occurred only for chronic serial of fenders ( serial

offenders who commit five or more offenses before

apprehension).

Using a Manhattan metric, LeBeau (1987b) focused on the

distance travelled by the rapist from his residence to the

initial contact scene, the place where he first encountered

the victim. The mean journey length for serial offenders was

1.77 miles and for single offense rapists 3.5 miles. LeBeau

( 1987~)used centrography (see Stephenson, 1980) to examine

similar trends.

LeBeau (1992) examined the activity of 4 chronic serial rapists in the San Diego sample. He discussed common patterns of date, hour of the day, relationship with the victim, modus operandi, type of crime scene, and travel distance. Aithough the sub-sample was too small to apply the findings to the larger serial rapist population, LeBeau does report some intriguing patterns.

Money (1990) based his research on a single incarcerated serial rapist in Florida. Money argues that the causes of the psychiatric disorders serial rape and lust murder are linked to a pathological condition or brain disease.

Ressler, Burgess, and Douglas (1983), researchers affiliated with the NCAVC, also focused on the psychodynamics of a single serial rapist/murderer . This offender, an

adolescent at the time, committed 12 known offenses over a 4 year period- All 12 offenses occurred within the offender's awareness space. The offender noted the times that police patrols frequented his home area by monitoring them from his high rise apartment. Most of the victims were taken by knife point from the elevator at the offender's apartment complex, The researchers also reported that a rape-murderer will more likely kill a victim if he feels the victim will likely

contact the police. This seemed to be the case with the

serial rapist/murderer, Clifford Olson (see Chapter 5 for a discussion of this offender). Groth (1979) is often cited as a definitive work in the analysis of the motivation of rapists. Groth identifies three types of rapists: the anger rapists, who comprise 45% of all rapists; the power rapists, who account for 50% of all rapists; and, the sadistic rapists, who comprise 5% of all rapists. He states that the sadistic rapist is sensationalized and overrepresented in the media as the typical rapist. Groth suggests that any of the 3 types of rapists may become a serial rapist although the sadistic rapist is the most likely to repeat his offense. Prentky, Burgess, Rokous, Lee, Hartmn, Ressler, and Douglas (1989) examined "fantasy" as a possiblemotivation for serial sexual homicides, The researchers compared a sample of

25 incarcerated serial sexual murderers with a sample of 17 incarcerated single sexualmurderers. Results showed-that 86% of the serial group as compared with 23% of the single offense group evidenced strong fantasy driven behaviour (p< .001). Haume (1989) presents an interesting work from an

Emirormental Criminology perspective. Maume argues that inequality produces lifestyles that are associated with the opportunity for offenders and victims to come into contact

with each other and that this relationship would be established using rape rates- mume examined 284 of the 318

standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs) in the United

States in 1980. Hatme found that areas with a high degree of income inequality and greater criminal opportunity experienced higher than average rape rates. Maume also showed that African-Americans, in particular, are disproportionately victims of tape and disproportionately offend as rapists.

This, he states, is due in large part to the social inequality experienced by this group. Some measures used by Maume are suspect as measures of opportunity. For example, Maume uses divorce rates as a measure of the criminal opportunity for rapists, suggesting that divorced persons will enter into more risky social sitestions than non-divorced persons, making them sore likely to be victims of rape. There are wide gaps between Maurae% epidemiology and his etiological conclusions.

Jaurney to Crime Research Journey to crime research is based on the theoretical assuaptions of environmental based analysis. It is applied research which examines distance, using various methods of measurement, and hw it relates to the selection of targets. Feu studies have explicitly examined the journey to crime of serial rapists and fever have examined whether this distance is different than that which vould be expected by chance.

As described earlier, Lefleau ( l987b, 1992) and Canter and

Larkin (1993) described the distances travelled by serial rapists- Lebeau (1987b) examines this behaviour in San Diego for 1971-1975. LeReau reports a mean journey length from residence to target contact scene of 3.5 miles for single offense rapists and 1.77 miles for serial rapists. Canter and

Larkin found that the mean distance that an English serial rapist would travel from his residence to a target contact scene was 1.53 miles. Topalin (1992) examined rape and serial rape in London, England in the 1980s and found that serial rapists she studied travelled a mean distance of 2.81 miles from node to target contact scene. Some 20% of the offenses

Topalin studied occurred in or close to the offender's residence.

Journey to crime research on rape in general is valuable background to this thesis. Amir (1971) examined rape in

Philadelphia for 1958 - 1960 and found that 72% of this sample of rapists attacked their victims within 5 city blocks of the rapist ' s home area. Rand (1986) also examined rape in

Philadelphia, for 1968 - 1975 and reported that 53% of rapes occurred vithin the home census tract of the offender. Pyle

(1974) examined rape in Akron, Ohio in 1972 and reported a

1-34 miles mean distance from offender residence to crime site- Some decades ago, Erlanson (1946) examined the journey of rapists in Chicago and found that 87% of rapes occurred vithin the of fender' s "home neighbourhood" ( defined as the police precinct). An even earlier study by White (1932) in Indianapolis, Indiana, found that rapists travelled a mean

distance of 1-52 miles. Gabor and Gottheil (1984) also examined rapists and found 1.43 miles as the mean distance travelled from residence to crime site by their sample of offenders f-om Ottawa, Ontario. Finally, a study by Rhodes and Conly (1981) in Washington, D.C., for the year 1974 found a 1.15 mile mean and a 0.73 mile median journey vo crime for their sample of rapists- The following table summarizes this journey to crime research: Table 1 ourney to Crime Research on Rape and Serial Rape

? Source =OW Year Location Journey to Crime Distance Measure White (1932) Rape ( 1930 I Indianapolis l~ean= 1.52 miles I I I 1 Erlanson Rape Chicago 872 within home ( 1946) neighbourhood Amir (1971) Rape 1958-60 Philadelphia 72% within 5 blocks of home Rand (1986) 1968-75 Philadelphia 53% within home I Rape I I I census tract LeBeau (1987b) Rape and 1971-75 San Diego Single rape mean Serial = 3.5 miles Rape Serial rape mean = 1.77 miles Pyle (1974) Rape 1972 Akron, OH Mean = 1.34 miles Rhodes and Rape 1974 Washington, Mean =1.15 miles Conly (1981) D.C. Median= -73 miles Cabor and Rape 1984 Ottawa Mean = 1.43 miles Cattheil ( 1984 ) Canter and Serial 1980s England Mean = 1.53 miles Larkin (1993) Rape 1 I Mean = 2.81 miles - Although most of this research did not control for the type of rape (i-e.,did not separate acquaintance rapes from stranger rapes) the research does support the idea that rapists and serial rapists will remain close to their area of familiarity and that this phenomenon is consistent for different locations, different cultures, and even different periods of time. In addition to journey to crime research on rape there are a number of related works that are valuable. Rengert and Wasilchick (1985) examined burglary in a suburb af Philadelphia. The researchers found that, in addition to location, time of day is an important variable in understanding how opportunity affects target selection (pp. 21-33). Rengert and Wasilchick also found that a burglar's crime sites are strongly influenced by the direction of their work place (p. 69). This will be an important consideration in the next chapter when it is argued that work site is an important node that allows a vital portion of the offender's awareness space to be extrapolated.

The Theory of Environmental Criminology Two major proponents of this theory are P .J . Brantingham and P.L. Brantingham. In Brantingham and Brantingham (1993a) the researchers argue that the selection of a target (e.g., a victim, a bank, an expensive car, etc.) is dependent upon the criminal's usual travel paths between routine activity nodes such as their home, place of work, a friend's residence, or a favourite bar (see also Barker, 1989; Felson, 1987; Garling, 1989; Georges-Abeyie and Harries, 1980; Kennedy and Forde, 1990). Further, the specific attributes of the offender and the environment at large (made up of social, cultural, legal,

spatial, and temporal dimensions ) form a "structural backclothv that also affect both the decisions of the potential offender and the opportunity to commit a given crime. This backcloth is dynamic: changes in it will shape circumstances at any particular time and place. A crime will usually occur after a triggering event exposes an opportunity

to commit a crime (e-g., an adolescent male cuts through a neighbour's yard and notices an unattended bicycle--the triggering event. Although he may not have becn looking to steal a bike, the opportunity presents itself and after a moment of consideration he steals the bike). Brantingham and Brantingham note many examples of the theory and how it may apply to separate crimes, particularly differences in the selection of victims for personal crimes as compared to property crimes. Brantingham and Brantingham (1993b) further the ideas of pattern theory or Environmental Criminology. In this work they pay specific attention to how the structural backcloth affects opportunity (see also Roncek and Maier, 1991). They present an intriguing theoretics1 example of how the structural backcloth may apply to serial rape. They state, "Some underlying commonalities in transportation networks and in the distribution of girls in time and space, at schools or shopping malls for instance, may be part of a general backcloth common to many western or industrialized societies that can be applied to an understanding of the individualized structural backcloths of individual offendersw (p. 14). This was particularly true in the cases of Clifford Olson and John

Oughton, as will be described in Chapter 5- Both of these offenders were restricted by the specific geographical range of their preferred victims, Oughton perhaps moreso than Olson. Most of the postulates of the theory as developed by these two researchers and others are presented in Brantingham and Brantingham (1984, 1991). Admittedly, the explanation of this much more comprehensive theory has been simplified in this review. Brantingham and Brantingham are, of course, not the only researchers contributing to this field of study. Cromwell, Olson and Avary (1991) provide an excellent examination of how pattern theory may be applied to breaking and entering, a study similar to Rengert and Wasilchick (1985) (see also Barker, 1989). Feeney (1986) is an excellent study on how Environmental Criminology applies to robbery. The theory itself is developed in several other salient works (see Canter, 1977; Rhodes and Conly 1991; and Georges-Abeyie and Harries, 1980). As will be described in the next chapter, this thesis builds on the journey to crime literature. Distances from the offender's awareness space to the initial contact scene will be noted and analyzed. The next chapter explains the research design of the thesis. It also defines the terms and variables that will be used in this research and indicates how they were operationalized- Chapter Three: Research Design

The subject of serial rape has not received much academic attention. Therefore, there are no standardized definitions for the terms used in the study of serial rape and instead, the few researchers engaged in this field, have used there own particular definitions.1 For example, the NCAVC uses 10 reported rapes as the demarcation between a serial rapist and a non-serial rapist. LeBeau (1987a), in contrast, uses 2 reported rapes as the criterion for identifying a serial rapist. Therefore, many of the definitions used in the thesis need to be clarified at this point. The definitions adopted in this thesis are by no means the only possible ones. A number of the definitions adopted in this thesis have been accepted by RCMP crime analysis units.

The research design of the study will be discussed after this definition of terms. The analytical tests used in this research are the circle and range tests mentioned earlier and the more robust Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for goodness of fit.

Finally, Criminal Geographic Targeting (CGT), the analytical technique developed by Rossmo (1993) which is used in Chapter

5 to answer some subsidiary research questions, will be described.

A recent attempt to standardize definitions of criminal behaviour is Douglas, Burgess, Burgess, and Ressler's (1992) Crime Classification Manual. New York: Lexington Books. This manual does not classify any of the terms defined in this chapter. Definition of Terms The following terms will be used throughout the thesis. An explanation of how the particular term was defined is also provided. Serial Sexual Assault (Stranger to Stranger)

As described in Chapter 1, the thesis will focus on stranger-stranger serial sexual assaults. This is by no means the most common form of serial rape but, as elucidated earlier, it is of great concern for law enforcement. Only

stranger-stranger sexual assaults will be analyzed. A stranger-stranger sexual assault is defined as a sexual assault that occurs between one or more offenders and one or more victims when the offender(s) and victim(s) had no personal relationship prior to the day the offense was committed. All other types of sexual assault will henceforth be referred to as "acquaintance sexual assaults." Serial Rapist There is, at this time, no universally accepted definition of what behaviours characterize a serial rapist. However, the Violent Crimes Linkage Analysis System (VICLAS)

located in Ottawa and soon to be employed nationwide by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), has adopted a definition of a serial sexual offender that is abridged here to account for offensed that are rape offenses or rape related offenses. s A serial rapist is any individual who has committed two or

more serious sex offenses. Applicable sex offenses are: 1) Sexual assault or attempted sexual assault as defined by the Criminal Code of Canada (CCC) in s. 271 - 273. 2) A sexually related homicide as defined by the CCC in s. 231 (5) (b) (c) (dl (6). 3) Sexual interference with an individual(s) under the age of 14 as defined by the CCC in s. 151. 4) Sexual exploitation of an individual under the age of 14 as defined in the CCC in s. 153.

5) Criminal anal intercourse as defined in the CCC in s. 159. It may seem questionable to categorize a serial offender who his victims as a serial rapist, even if the crimes were sexually related. It is argued that differentiating behaviour according to the outcome of a crime is not a valid basis, in academic research, for studying the behaviours separately (e.g. , the exact amount of violence may be fatal in one rape while it may wound but not kill the victim in a different rape). It should be noted that the above definition does not require that an offender must be convicted of two or more of the above crimes to be included in the thesis population. A crime my be attributed to a particular series if a reliable linkage (defined below) has been made. It is important to include, where possible, incidents not necessarily reported to the police and to use two rapes as the demarcation between the serial and non-serial rapist. It is possible that over a lifetime an individual could rape or attempt to rape a large number of victims and not qualify as a serial rapist in either the NCAVC or LeBeau's definition if he is never reported to the police.

Series There is no universally accepted definition of a- series. Hovever, the VICLAS program mentioned earlier has adopted the following definition of a series. A note and classification process is also provided. A series is comprised of two or more sexual offenses committed by:

Class I: A single offender acting alone.

Class 11: Two or more offenders acting together, where el1 offenders are common to all cases.

Class 111: One offender acting alone or two or more offenders acting together, where at least one offender is common to all cases.

Class IV: Two or more offenders acting together, where each offender participated in at least two cases.

Class V: Two or more offenders who have committed one or more casep alone, and where all offenders have only one case in common . Classification Process: The analyst should attempt to group cases as class I or class I1 whenever possible before electing to group them using class 111, IV, or V definitions. This may entail regrouping, as more cases are linked together.3

There is no minimum or maximum time interval that must occur between offenses in order for an incident to be included in a series. Furthermore, events, such as incarceration, that interrupt a series do not preclude offenses taking place after or before the said event from being included in a series. The shortest interval between two successive rapes recorded in the thesis data set was two hours. The longest interval between two successive rapes recorded in the thesis data set was seven years (the series was interrupted by the offender's incarceration for a number of non-sex offenses). The shortest

See Appendix A for diagrams of the different classes of series.

A sexual offender can belong to more than one series but a case cannot exist in more than one series. series, in terms of elapsed time from first to last offense, was a two rape series that occurred over three days. The longest series, in terms of elapsed time from first to last offense, was a three rape series that occurred over nine years. The thesis population is comprised of 29 separate series

that contributed to the total 102 stranger-stranger sexual assaults. The large number of acquaintance sexual assaults committed by the thesis population are not included in the

total. The Oughton series (#30 in the data set) and offenses are not included in this enumeration of the thesis population or number of offenses. It should be noted that series constitute the unit of analysis in the thesis not individual serial rapists. Linkage There is no universally accepted definition of what facts or evidence pertaining to a case are necessary to establish that a particular crime must have been committed by a particular offender. The VICLAS program has adopted a definition of linkage that can be abridged as an offense that has been attributed to a series because of its corroboration through a reliable source or method. Such sources or methods may include: 1) Offender confession 2) Victim identification of offender 3) Witness identification of offender 4) Forensic evidence 5) Peculiar and unique modus operandi VICLAS also uses the term potential linkage in their analysis. This is a linkage made by a VICLAS unit but that has not yet been corroborated by the source or methods mentioned above. Potential linkages will not be included in the data set. They will be discussed in more detail in Chapter 5. Effective Serial Rapist In Chapter 5 a small number of series will be compared as to the relative effectiveness of the serial rapists contributing to the series. As mentioned in Chapter 1, effectiveness, in this respect, relates only to the ability of the offender to elude arrest or conviction for their sexual offenses . An effective serial rapist is defined as an individual or group of individuals who has/have contributed at least five offenses to a given series. Five of the twenty- nine series were contributed to by an effective serial rapist. Ineffective Serial Rapist It follows from the definition just presented that an ineffective serial rapist is defined as an individual or group of individuals who has/have contributed fewer than five offenses to a given series. Twenty-four of the twenty-nine series were contributed to by ineffective serial rapists. Activity Node As described in Brantingham and Brantingham (1984, 1991) and earlier in this thesis, an activity node is a locus of familiarity for the offender. For most of the series only a single activity node, the offender's residence at the time of the offense, is known. In some cases more extensive information about the offender's routine activities is available and in such cases the measured journey to crime

44 distance is taken from the initial contact scene to the nearest activity node- It is argued that in testing whether a series is affected by the offender's putative awareness space, knowing as much as possible about the offender's routine activities is essential. Where more information is

available it must be used in the analysis. A researcher must use the best measures of awareness space available. Where other activity nodes are known, using only the current residence of the offender is unnecessarily conservative and may lead a researcher to inaccurare conclusions. It should be noted, however, that including as part of the offender' s awareness space every site of which the offender might have some knowledge would, in most cases, result in the identification of a geographical area that might include an entire city. Attempts to identify a spatial pattern of target selection would then become tautological.

A researcher must be discriminatory in the nodes used in analysis and only utilize sites that would, on theoretical grounds, be primary to the offender in anchoring his spatial pattern of target selection. The nodes used in this thesis were the offender's residence at the time of the offense and, if available; past residences of the offender if they had occupied the dwelling at least two years previous to the first known offense of the series; partner's residences; family residences if the individual frequented them; work locations; past work locations if the offender vas employed at the location at least two years prior to the first offense; and friends1

45 residences if the individual frequented them. Initial Contact Scene Defining the initial contact scene for the offense is difficult- Many serial rapes occur among persons not known to one another but who have a mutual acquaintance. To complicate matters the offender and victim may have met before hut have no personal relationship and thus still meet the criterion for a stranger-stranger sexual assault as outlined previously .

This mutual acquaintance or a brief past meeting may be used by a serial rapist as a "conw to gain access to the victim.

Thus, determining where the initial contact scene was may be difficult. The following definition is used.

If the serial rapist uses a blitz or surprise attack' in the offense, the initial contact scene will be the exact location where the offender first comes into personal contact vith the victim- If the offender uses the ""can" modus operandi or uses a mutual acquaintance to gain access to the victim, the initial contact scene will be the exact location *ere the offender comes into contact vith the victim imedkately prZor to the codssion of the act. For example, Clifford Olson contacted one of his murder victims in a local mall a few weeks before the offense occurred- He offered the victim, a teenaged girl, a job and gave her his business card. Olson used this technique as a method of gaining the trust of victims. He did not actually

' See p. 86-87 for a description of the diffeient mod1 operand* used by serial rapists. have a business. Two veeks later, on the day of the murder,

Olson vas driving gvay from his residence and saw the young woman waiting for a bus. He drove up to her and offered her a ride. The victim had had previous friendly contact with Qlson and, apparently for this reason, accepted the ride and was later sexually assaulted and murdered. In this case there are two potenzial initial contact scenes: the mall and the bus stop. Fcr +,he purposes cf this research, according to the definition adopted above, the location of the bus stop will be used as the initial contact scene for this particular crime. Distance

Distances in jour3ey to crime research or Environmental

Criminology may be measured in several ways. For example,

Amir*s ( 1971 ) study of rape and Rand's (1986) study of various crimes use mobility triangles. LeBeau (1987a, 1987b) uses mnhattan metric. Rhodes and Conlyas (1981) study of rape eiaployed curvieter or wheel distance measures. Canter and

Larkin (1993) use "as the crow fliesR2or straight line distance measures- There are a variety of other methods such as measuring by city blocks, police precincts, or census tracts.

Distances in this study will be measured from the initial contact scene to the particular node of activity using both curvireter5 measures and "as the crow flieswdistances. Each

I A to01 used in geography to reasure curved distances on maps. It is usually shaped like a vriting utensil with a -11 wheel on the tfp that, when rolled along the map surface, measures the distance in eentimetres or inches .. This distance when multiplied by the scale of the map detemnes the preclse distance between the given points- distance was remeasured at least once to ensure an accurate reading, The initial contact scenes and offender nodes were obtained from a database held by a VICLAS unit at "E" Division RCWP headquarters in Vancouver, B.C. These points were then plotted on individual roadmaps. In total there were 102 offenses contained in 29 series.

"AS the crow flies" measurements were simply taken with a straight edged ruler measuring the distance from initial contact scene to closest node and multiplying this distance by the scale of the map- Curvimeter measurements are more subjective than straight line distances as the measurements are the perceived distance that the offender travelled. In some cases the actual route taken by the offender was noted in the case file- In the former cases a probable route from the node to initial contact scene was plotted on the roadmap and measured using the cu~imeter. Routes were plotted along the obvious traffic thoroughfares which, in most cases, had a B. C. highway designation- The following figure is a hypothetical diagram that demonstrates how straight line and curvimeter distances were measured on the separate maps.

{figure 1 about here) It is possible that the offender may have taken a different route as a n~h~rtcutn. In such cases the curvimeter distance measure would be a =re conservative measurement of distance . It is not as likely, though still probable, that a serial rapist could take a route that is further than the perceived distance measurement. It is argued, on the basis of the

geography of movement literature (Lowe and Moryadas, 1975), that any discrepancy between actual distance travelled and the imputed distance will be insignificant in the cognitive notion of distance in the offender's mind. Distances were also measured from the routine pathways of the offender to the initial contact scene. Routine pathway will be defined momentarily. These distances tqere measured using curvimeter distance measures. There were 102 measured distances representing the total number of offenses. Nearest Mode or Routine Pathway Activity nodes are vital portions of the offender's known area and act as anchor points for their awareness space. Another vital portion is the offender's pathways between activity nodes. An analysis of the serial rapist's spatial pattern of target selection should also take into account the area along pathways. The area of high probability for target selection along a routine pathway would probably be much narrower than the area of high probabilz-ty for target selection around an essential node. A crude description of this high probability area will be provided in the next chapter - In order to explore the effect of including the routine pathway portion of the offender ' s awareness space, analysis vill be conducted on the distance to the nearest node of activity or the nearest routine pathway of the offender(s1. Routine pathway is defined as a roadway that can be extrapolated as the probable route between two known activity nodes and also defined as the major commuter routes (routes that have a highway designation) near the offender's activity nodes- If information from the RCMP case file mentions other routes commonly used by the offender they will also be included as valid portions of the awareness space. Figure 2 is a hypothetical diagram that displays how various offenses may be found along the offender's routine pathways. {figure 2 about here) Figure 3 is a hypothetical diagram that demonstrates how distances were measured from individual initial contact scenes to the routine pathways of the offender. {figure 3 about here} Using major commuter routes with a highway designation is an appropriate and conservative measure. Highways, like any major geographical feature such as a river, mountain, or landmark cannot pass unnoticed by an offender who drives to and away from an initial contact scene (only two series included offenses in which a vehicle was not used to travel to or away from the initial contact scene). Therefore, they can then be utilized as a pathway that the offender is aware of and probably uses fairly often. The 102 offenses occurred in 10 population centres throughout British Columbia. The highways corresponding to these areas are noted in Table 2.

Table 2 Routine Pathways for Series Occurring in Corresponding Areas of Activity P . Area of Activity ( Appropriate Highways I Lower Mainland 1, lA, 99, 99A, 91, and Fraser Valley 10, 11, 7, 7A, 15, 17 Victoria 1, 17, 17A Whistler 99 Prince George 97 Parksville 19 I Prince Rupert 16 I Dawson Creek 49, 2 Vernon 96, 6 Port Alberni 4

Only routes near the offender's primary node cVill be used. For example, a series where the primary node is located in Surrey (the lower portion of the lower mainland) will not incorporate routine pathways in Vancouver such as Highway 7 (Known as the Lougheed Highway or Broadway and located in the upper portion of the lover mainland).

Research Design

A number of research techniques could be used to analyze the collected data. Canter and Larkin (1993) note the viability of circle and range tests. The marauder hypothesis suggests that first, all offenses will be encompassed by a circle that uses as its diameter points the two crimes that are furthest from each other. Second, and more importantly, this circle will encompass a primary node, usually the

v offender's residence. The commuter hypothesis suggests that although all the series incidents may be encompassed by the offense circle this circle will not envelop a primary node of the offender - These tests will be used in the thesis but, as will be explained in depth in the next chapter, the circle and range tests have methodological weaknesses and should not be used to the exclusion of other approaches-

A more robust test is distance decay analysis, a test related to an actual procedure that will be used in the thesis (Eldridge and Jones, 1991; Olsson, 1965; Taylor, 1971; and Taylor, 1975). Distance decay analysis is a statistical test that measures the density of events in relation to the location of a single point, or node. The uses of such a technique are diverse- Hunter and Shannon (1985) examined a past study that analyzed how admission rates to mental hospitals decrease with increasing residential distance from the hcspital. The Minneapolis Police Department (1993) uses distance decay analysis to examine a number of street crimes ranging from armed robbery to prostitution. Other valuable tests , including distance decay, employ Geographic Znformation

Systems (GLS). GIs systems use computerized map networks that allow a researcher to attain extremely accurate distance

-asurernents and great analytical malleability (Huxhold, 1991; and Star and Estes, 1990). Distance decay analysis will not be used in the thesis in favaur of the more sophisticated Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for goodness of fit6 (Lindgren, 1960; Massey, 1951). This test, like distance decay analysis, is a test of the density of data points in relation to a given site or node. Hodder and Orton (1989) state that in the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, "the greatest cumulative distance (Dmax) is compared with a critical value that depends on the number of sitesw (p. 226). Therefore, the test uses the basic principles of distance decay analysis but, as will be described in a moment, in a more efficient manner. The test is applied through a three step process. First, the land area is divided up into different zones, each zone being a fixed distance from the previous zone (e.g. , zones which expand outward in 500m increments from the central site). Either exact distznces or a count by distance increments may be used in the test. If distance increments are used, the level of significance will be understated depending, of course, on the size of the increments. Levels of significance obtained from incremental zones will be conservative estimates of the actual level of significance. The second step of the process requires the completion of a cumulative frequency distribution curve that is drawn by using the distribution of the number of incidents by distance increment. In the third step of the process this cumulative frequency is compared vith a theoretical line that would exist

' The Kolrogorov-Smirnov statistic states that the sample distribution function or: < or = x < F (x = j,for Xljl = -) will *+I j = 0, . . .,n7 (with X = --., and X spdificantly differ f rol the stado' ed population('d!)stribution. The numerical difference of (F,(x) - F(x)l is the -value of camparison. if the distribution followed a uniform, normal, or Poisson distribution from the central node or site. A value is then generated which represents the difference of the cumulative frequency from these distributions. Finally, this value is compared to the critical value representing the stated level of significance (e.g., .001, .01, .05). Figure 4 compares an actual distribution from one of the research tests to the uniform distribution curve. As shown in this figure the research distribution differs significantly from the uniform distribution. {figure 4 about here} In the present work, and as mentioned earlier, there were

29 series which contributed 102 distance measurements. These distances range from a minimum distance of 0 Km (i.e., the initial contact scene was at, or very near, a primary activity node) to a distance of over 100 Km. It should be noted that only a small proportion of the measurements were of any great length from the offender's known awareness space and are therefore treated as outliers. Using the first step of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov process, zones were created using constant distance increments. Although the exact distances could be used, this option was discarded in favour of the more conservative distance increment zones. A number of tests were conducted using different maximum distances as the final zone. Table 3 notes the final zone that vas used for each test and the size of the incremental constant. - Figure 4: Cumulative Frequency of distances measured from the nearest activity node up to 50 km by 1 km increments compared to the uniform distribution. Table 3 Maximum Distance From Node of Activity For Each Kolmogorov- Smirnov Test For Goodness of Fit by Incremental Constant

So, for example, in the first test individual measurements were placed in zones up to distances of 50 Km by 1 Km increments. Therefore, a distance of 1.9 Km would be in the 2 Km zone, distances of 22.3 Km and 22.7 Km would both be in the 23 Km zone, and distances over 50 Krn would be ignored. It should be remembered that these tests will be performed for both the straight line distance measurements and the curvimeter perceived distance measurements. Conducting such a battery of tests by different maximum ranges is an important procedure. It is probable that the cumulative frequency of the data may be significantly different from a standardized distribution using a larger final zone such as 25 Km or 50 Km than a distribution that uses a smaller final zone such as 2.5 Km or 5 km. This is intuitively logical as journey to crime distances are much more likely to be normally or uniformly distributed within a

5 Km range than a 50 Km range. This is primarily due to the amount of ti- spent within the different- ranges. Significawe levels will be lower in these smaller final distance increment categories and if the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests reveal that serial rapists choose targets in a non- uniform or non-normal pattern within smaller ranges it would strongly suggest that the node or site is strongly influencing target selection. However, one important point should be noted. In the smaller maximum distance tests such as the one that uses 2.5 Km as the final zone, the test may begin to be influenced by the buffer zone of the offender (Brantingham and

Brantingham, 1984 and 1991; Rossmo, 1993). This may alter the power of the nodal influence within the range and lead to a result in the statistical test which shows a decreased level of significance.

Thess tests will also be conducted for the distances measured to the nearest node of activity or routine pathway of the offender. When including the routine pathways of the offender only a few distances were found beyond 3.5 Km of the offender ' s awareness space. Two tests were conducted on these data using 2.5 Km and 3 -5 Km as the final zonal and using a

0.15 Km incremental constant. Two auxiliary Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests will be conducted to explore the robustness of the previous results. These tests will exclude different series to see whether there is any change in the levels of significance that could be attributed to the presence of these series. This is an important step. It will allow the researcher to argue that various idiosyncrasies in the data have not affected the results and conclusions of the thesis. 60 The first of these auxiliary tests will exclude the Olson series. This series is responsible for 25 of the distance measurements and is of such magnitude that the presence of the series may skew the results. The same battery of Kolmogorov- Smirnou tests vill be conducted excluding this series- The second auxiliary test is concerned with the possibility that conmuter serial rapists may affect the

results of such a study. As described in Canter and Larkin (1993) the commuter serial rapist is one who attacks his victims far away from any area in which he is vell knovn. His criminal range does not overlap his home range. It is

possible that if this type of offender exists in inordinate numbers they vill skev the results of the study. If excluding

such offenders strengthens the levels of significance greatly t3en it is probable that an analysis of the serial rapist's spatial pattern of target selection must control by type of rapist--marauders or comauters. To explore this, a battery of tests were conducted excluding those series that did not have

at least one offense within 2.5 Km or 5 Km of a primary activity node- Offenders who select all their targets beyond this range are defined by this thesis to be commuters. I These tests vill help the researcher to determine whether serial rapists exhibit a consistent spatial pattern of target selection. This pattern will also be described in the next chapter using cruder, mare qualitative methods-

' The Canter and Larkin (1993) definition of a comhuter was found to be probleuatic- The Population of Serial Rapists

A brief word about the information used in this study is

iqortant. Information on the series of offenses committed by the different offenders was obtained from the records of a

specialized crime analysis unit of the RCMP. Most of the

series have occurred since the 1991 inception of this unit.

Only two series, the Oughton series and the Olson series,

occurred completely before 1991. This crime analysis unit has

a great number of records on sex crimes and sexually related

crimes that occur in British Columbia. The 29 series used in

the thesis are the entire number of series in this database which fit the criterion of a stranger-stranger serial sexual

assaulter defined in this chapter. Therefore, the set of

series should be referred to as a population and not as a

sample. It is likely that there are series tha~fit this

criterion of which the RCMP is not aware or about which they

do not have sufficient data. As the VICLAS unit has no

specific policy regarding the type of series they collect

information about, it is argued that the series used in the thesis are not significantly different from any other series

that occurred in British Columbia during this time.

Criminal Geographic Targe ting

As has been explained in past chapters, the John Oughton series is of such mgnitude that a separate procedure that examines this series on its own would be valuable. Including the entire Oughton series in the aggregate portion of the study, except for the circle and range tests, would 62 undoubtedly skew the findings of the research. Therefore, an analysis procedure called Criminal Geographic Targeting (CGT), described in Chapter 5, will be used to examine this series. In addition to the Oughton series this procedure will be used to analyze the Clifford Olson series, a separate series in Surrey, and finally, a separate series in Kamloops. These latter three series are included in the aggregate test described earlier but have a sufficient number of cases to be examined on their ovn and are among the "effective" series mentioned earlier. Criminal Geographic Targeting was developed by D.K. Rossmo, a colleague at Simon Fraser University. As described in Rossmo (1993) CGT, "by analyzing the spatial information associated to a series of linked crimes, attempts to determine the most probable areas in which the offender's residence might be located. It addresses some of the problems associated with centrography, and uses the information and insights provided by journey to crime researchw (pp. 79-80). Criminal Geographic Targeting is conducted through a four step processI . First, map boundaries outlining the

' The function of CGT is of the form: T

and: P-- is the resultant probability for point ij; k is an empirically determined constant; B is the radius of the buffer zone; 1 is the total number of crime sites; individual's hunting area are calculated using as data points a relevant crime scene such as the initial contact scene, the

attack scene(s) , or the "dump" site where a victim is released

or a body buried. In this study, initial contact scenes will

be used. Second, distances are measured from each point on the map using Manhattan metric. Third, this Manhat tan distance is used as an independent variable for an analysis of values that are determined by the proximity of the crime scene to the buffer zone, a vital area of the offender's awareness space. A value is produced for each data point or crime scene. Thus, if there are 81 crime scenes, as in the case of the Oughton series, there will be 81 values. Fourth, these values are summed to produce a single score. The higher the score the greater will be the probability that the point includes the primary node of the offender's awareness space which in most cases is the offender's residence. Rossrno

(1993) notes that for this model to be valid the score it assigns to the specific point that contains the primary node of the offender should be relatively high, or in other words, there should be few points on the hunting area map with equal or higher scores (p- 87)- Other explanations of the criminal behaviour and pattern of serial rape behaviour will be discussed in Chapter 5 but are of liudted importance. They will not be described in this portion of the thesis. f is an empirically determined exponent; g is an empirically determined exponent; are the coordinates of point ij; and are the coordinates of the cth crime site ?ocation.

[Source: Rossw, 1993, p. 82) Chapter Four: Results of Research

The Circle and Range Tests

As described in Chapters 1 and 3, the circle test examines the relationship between the home range of the offender, defined as a circular region that uses as its diameter end points the two crimes scenes furthest from each other, and his criminal range. The test first examines vhether the home range of the offender is enveloped by the criminal range and second, examines whether this criminal range encompasses all of the initial contact scenes in the series. Twenty-eight of the 30 series had circles, created by using the two furthest crime scenes as diameter end points, that enveloped all series offenses. Of the 29 offenses in the

2 series that did not envelop all offenses, 25 were located in the crime circle area. This finding is very similar to the percentage reported by Canter and Larkin ( 1993 ) who found that

91% of the offenders in their study had all offenses within this region. They found that of the 30 offenses within the 4 series that did not envelop all cases, 23 were within the crie circle area-

When a primary node of activity was considered it was found that just over half the series, 17 (56.6%) out of 30 had a node vithin the circled prediction area. These series fit tbe marauder model. Thirteen (43.4%) of the series apparently aperated from a node outside the circular region (the commuter rodel). It should benoted that 9 (25.7%) of the 35 - offenses belonging to the 13 commuter series occupied a specific geographical range- Seven occurred along prostitute strolls, one was a contract rape, and one occurred in an area specifically targeted by the offender. Canter and Larkin found that a markedly different proportion (87%) of their sample had a base within the circle area as predicted by the marauder hypothesis - It should be remembered that the Oughton series was used in this test, as the large number offenses in the series would not have affected the conclusions of either the circle or range hypotheses. The Oughton series was one of the 17 marauder series. The range test was therefore not conducted as the findings of such a test would be inconsequential to the conclusion that this population does not exhibit any distinct pattern according to the circle hypotheses.

The fairly equal proportions of series conforming to the commuter and marauder hypothesis allows us to accept neither hypothesis as the most applicable to the thesis population.

However, as was mentioned in earlier chapters, British cities and North American cities are quite different in physical organization and consequent movement patterns. This factor may have much to do with these results. There are several rethodological problems vith the circle hypotheses that also probably contribute to the fact that neither the marauder nor the commuter mdel dominates the pattern of offending among serial rapists in British Columbia-

The first major problem vith the circle hypothesis tests is that they fail to deal with offenders who move in the midst of their series of offenses. Take, for example, an offender who lives at one location and commits a number of rapes close to his residence then moves across the city to another location and commits more offenses near his new address, as well as a few offenses near his old residence. When the crime circle is drawn, vhich uses as its diameter end points the offenses furthest from each other, the circle will encompass almost the entire city and, almost by default, the offender vill be labelled a marauder when his offens9s may have been of the commuter type- The hypothesis also fails to deal with longer distance moves. One series in the thesis population, for example, began in a small fishing and lumber town along the west coast of B.C. This offender left that town for the lower mainland (Vancouver area) to look for work and continued his series there. The crime circle i,r this case would include a large proportion of the entire province, hardly an adequate test of an offender's spatial pattern of target selection. This may be partially controlled for by ignoring the second or subsequent residcaces in cases where the offender moves within the population centre. The first residence is the only constant in the of fender*s awareness space. For long distance moves the different string of offenses would have to be treated as separate series. Neither of these solutions is a complete answer however.

A second ~jorproblem occurs if an offender attacks a victim very close to his residence. Regardless of the number of offenses that occur away from his residence this offender will be labelled a marauder even when the reverse is true. Take, for example, an offender who has always attacked in a borough three miles due east of his residence. One day he sees an extremely vulnerable target one block west of his residence and decides to commit a rape. This offender is now a marauder although in all cases except one he clearly commutes to commit his crimes- This may be controlled for by ignoring what seem to be outliers but doing so may lead to suspect manipulations of data.

A third major problem is that the hypothesis does not suggest how researchers might incorporate other nodes. If a greater portion of the offender's awareness space is known, this should be considered in any test. A more robust test would include these other se-iilentr- of the awareness space.

A fourth problem with the cir, &e hypotheses is that it does not control for offenses that occur in a specific geographical range. Some series are controlled by the location of the range that their preferred victim occupies

(e-g., a prostitute stroll) and such patterns must be noted and identified in research on target selection patterns.

The circle test is prob?ematic. It is not an adequate test of an offender's pattern of target selection. For this reason the Kol~gotov-Smirnov test for goodness of fit vas used to analyze the data for all known primary activity nodes.

As will be shown, this battery of tests was much more successful is describing common patterns of the serial sexual assaul ter .

The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test For Goodness Of Fit The first set of tests was run on straight line or '*asthe crow fliesw distance measures. Separate tests vere run with an ever decreasing final distance increment. Proportions representing the fraction of data points that were within the final distance increment will be noted below the reported significance values- Two tests were conducted for each final distance increment category using normal and uniform distributions as standards for comparison. It should be remembered that a successful test merely indicates that the distribution of data points is neither normal nor uniform. The significance values for the first test are as follows: Table 4 Significance Values Using Straight- Line Distance Measures From the Nearest Node of ~ctivity

1 Firrat bfbtaace Incree~entand Leogth of Xncre#m&l Cbmtmt Yb UL Era Jim I.5L I&

- 6 .--"-+-.w -.--L!i" --A *- LBL-l=-%!!!L Lag "** L!Blp--- (4B-

fgnal .0000 .0000 .OOO6 .0010 .0013 -0033 .O495 H#rf)rUu affrn *oooo -0000 .oooo .oooo .oooo .oooo .oooo #imWim lrropsrthef 0.98 0.95 0.88 0.87 0-84 0.76 0.58 m8

Taro Kolmagcmov-Sairnov tests, the 50- and the 25Km final distance incrersrrnt test, included a comparison of the data to a Poisson distribution- The significance values for both

tests vere -0000. - The second set of tests was run on distances using curvimeter measurements of the imputed route taken by the offender to the initial contact scene. As in the first set of tests separate tests were run with an ever decreasing final distance increment. The P values for each of the separate tests are as follows: Table 5 Significance Values Using Curvimeter Measured Perc Distances From the Nearest Node of Activitv

The significance values in this battery of tests appear to be only slightly different from the previous aggregate tests. As above, two Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, the 50Km and the 25Km final distance increment test, included a comparison of the data to a Poisson distribution. The significance valries for both tests were .0000. The next battery of tests was run on distances using curvimeter Ilaeasurements of the imputed route from the nearest node of activity routine pathway of the offender. Only a small number of offenses occurred at any great length from the putative awareness space when the routine pathways of the offender were included as probable portions of the awareness space. Thus, only two tests were run on these data using

2.501 and 3.5Km as the final distance increments. The P values for each of the two tests are as follows: Table 6 Significance Values Using Curvimeter Measured Perceived Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity= Routine Pathway of the Offender

The high proportion of offenses that occur near a routine pathway strongly suggest that almost all offenders are most comfortable near their own awareness spaces. As was mentioned in the last chapter, two auxiliary Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests were conducted that were designed to investigate the robustness of the previous results. The first of these auxiliary tests excluded the Olson series which was of such magnitude that the presence of the series might have skewed the above results. The first set of tests was run on the straight line distance measures in the same manner as the previous tests. The significance values of each of the tests are as follows: Table 7 Significance Values Using Straight Line Distance Measures From the Nearest Node of Activity Excluding Series if18 (OLSON)

Excluding the Olson series seems to make little difference.

Two Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, the 5OKa and the 25Km final distance increment test, included a comparison of the data to a Poisson distributioc. The significance values for both tests were .0000.

The second set of tests excluding the Olson series used the curvimeter measurements of the perceived route taken by the offender, using the same manner as the previous tests.

The significance values for each of the separate tests are as follows :

Table 8 Significance Values Using Curvimeter Measured Perceived Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Excluding Series As above, excluding the Olson series made little difference.

Two Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, the 50Km and the 25Km final distance increment tests, included a comparison of the data to

a Poisson di stribution. The significance values for both

tests were .0000. The next battery of tests was run on distances using curvimeter measurements of the perceived route from the nearest node of activity or routine pathway of the offender excluding the Olson series. The tests were conducted in the same manner as the previous test of this kind. The

significance values for each of the two tests are as follows : Table 9 Significance Values Using Curvimeter Measured Perceived Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity or Routine Pathway of the Offender Excluding Series j.18 (OLSON)

Excluding the Olson series has no apparent affect on the significance of these results. As mentioned in the last chapter, the second auxiliary test was concerned with the possibility that commuter serial rapists may affect the results of such a study1 . If this type of offender exists in inordinate numbers they will skew any

AS discussed in Chapter 3 the definition of a commuter used in these Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests differs from Canter and Larkin8s ( 1993 ) definition. results. A battery of tests was conducted for all series excluding those series that do not have at least one offense within 2.5 Km or 5 Km of a primary activity node. Offenders who select all their targets beyond this range are said to be commuters. Only two tests were run on these data; one with a final distance increment of 2.5Km and the other with a final

distance increment of 5Km. Any difference between the first aggregate test and this auxiliary test would be the most pronounced in the smaller increment tests. If the findings at

5Km are significant (PC -05) then it can be assumed that the

final distance increment tests of 7. SKm, iOKm, 15Km, 25Km, and

50Km also would be significant. The first set of tests was run on the straight line distance measures in the same manner as the previous tests. The significance values of each of the tests are as follows: Table 10 Significance Values Using Straight Line Distance Mea sures From the Nearest Node of Activity Including Only Series that Have at Least One Offense Within 2.5 Km or 5 Km of the Nodes ? as Specified

+ Excludes Series 3, 8, 9, 15, 22, and 24

The significance values for this battery of tests are the same as those of the first aggregate test. Controlling by series type, such as by excluding c-ters, apparently has little effect . The next tests used the curvimeter measurements of the perceived route taken by the offender and used the same manner

as the previous tests* The significance values for each of the separate tests are as follows: Table 13. Significance Values Using Curvimeter Pleasured Perceived Distances Fros the Nearest Node of Activity Including Only Series That Have at Least One Offense Within 2.5Km or 5K1n of the Node, as Specified

I Hnal Distance Increment and I leagth of Incremental Constant

hqpmiaa cf Bat? -69 *I Excludes Series 8, 15, and 22 + Excludes Series 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 15, 22, and 24

As with the straight line measurement test there seems to be little difference between the results of the first aggregate set of tests and this battery of tests- The next battery of tests was run on distances using curwimeter measurements of the perceived route from the nearest node of activity or routine pathway of the offender.

The tests vere conducted in the same manner as the previous test of this sort- The significance values for each of the two tests are as follotis: Table 12 Significance Values Using Curvimeter Measured Perceived Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity or Routine Pathway of the Offender and Including Only Series That Have at Least One Offense Within 2.5Km or 3.5- of the Node or Routine Pathway, as Specified

+ Excludes Series 8, 22 There is no difference between these findings and the previous results on the aggregate tests.

Discussion of These Resul ts

The first set of aggregate tests show +:hat serial rapists exhibit a clear spatial pattern of target selection. All 16 Kolm~gorov-Smirnovtests using straight line distance measures to the nearest node were significant at the -05 significance level or better, All tests compared to an uniform distribution were significant to at least the .0001 level. The distribution of target selection data points is not statistically comparable to either a normal or uniform distribution and did not conform to a Poisson distribution in the tests on that distribution- The node of activity is clearly affecting the choice of victims. The proportion of data used in each test is an important consideration. Even at the ssmllest final distance increment test of 2,SKm the bulk of the data vas used in the test- Confidence in tests of such data wauld be in jeopardy if only a small portion of the data were used in the analysis. This pattern vas also identified in the tests using curvimeter measures. Fifteen of these 16 Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests were beyond a -01 level of significance. The only test that did not exhibit this pattern was the test with a final distance increment of 2-SKm using 150m increments and compared to a normal distribution. Figure 5 displays this research distribution. (figure 5 about here) An explanation for this is difficult in that the same test compared to an uniform distribution was significant beyond the

,0001 level of significance. It is possible that relatively inaccurate curvimeter measurements, that were unimportant at longer distances, began to influence the Kolmogorov-Smirnov results for this test. The difference between this 2 * 5Km test and the straight line 2.5- test that was significant beyond a -05 level gives credence to this explanation, It is also possible that the "buffer zone" of the offenders (Brantingham and Brantingham, 1984 and 1991; Rossmo 1993) affected the results for this 2-5Km test- If the serial rapist was affected by such a pben-non, the distribution at this 2.5K.m level vould certainly not be uniform but may appear to be noreally distributed In that there would be few victims vithin three or four af the first IS- increments but would increase to a peak in the next few increments (at 2.5- there were 17 1501 increments). The effect af a buffer zone on- larger distance tests vould be weak and the zone would probably only

77

"*

influence results in the smaller increment tests. The strength of these findings is especially evident in the significance of the tests in the smaller final zone tests

( 7.5Km, SKm, and 2.5Km). It could be argued that an offender will, logically, not choose victims uniformly or even normslly vithkn a 50b span. An offender who chooses victims in a non- uniform or non-normal pattern within 7. SKm, SKm, or even 2.5Km of a node of activity is clearly affected by the presence of a poverful var iabls. Using the routine pathway as part of the avareness space created significance levels beyond the -0001 level. Even more intriguing is that 97% of the serial rapists in the population selected victims within 3,SKm of this portion of the probable awareness space and 94% of the incidents occurred within 2.5Km. The proportion of offenses that occurred close to the nades was also very hi&. Fifty-eight percent and 54% of the incidents occurred within 2-5Km of a primary activity node of the offender, using straight line measures and curvimeter perceived distance measures respectively- The routine pathvay proportions are irrppressive. It is possible that this is due largely to the fact that autmmbiles played an important part in all but two of the series used in thEs study. Host often, serial rapists used automobiles to travel to, and to flee froat, the initial contact scexe. In a number of series the automobile was used by the offender as part of his modus operandi. Offenders who victimize hf tchhikets or prostitutes, for example, usually need to have a vehicle to gain access to this victim type. The propensity for the use of automobiles may create a cognitive state in the offender's search pattern whereby the routine pathways become a more salient portion of the awareness space in searching for potential victims than the codes these pathways connect. It must be reiterated that most of the routine pathways used in this analysis were not expressly described as such in the case files. They were extrapolated or assumed portions of the avareness space. Therefore, any conclusions using the results that use the routine pathvay, as described in the study, must take into account this characteristic of the data. The second battery of tests excluded the Olson series. Strong evidence was found shoving that the pattern des-tibed above exists with

Smirnov tests were significant beyond the -05 level, All of the tests comparing the frequencies to a uniform distribution were significant beyond a -0001 level of significance. This shws, of course, that the distribution of data in most of the tests vas neither uniform or normal. Like the first aggregate tests, the large proportion of data that was analyzed even for the 2-5- test (56%) adds strength to the findings of this research. The second set of tests, using the curvimeter distance measures, added further support to this conclusion. Again, 15 of the 16 Kolmogorov-Sumov tests were significant beyond the

-05 level and all of the tests comparing the frequencies to a

80 uniform distribution vere significant beyond a .001 level of significance. Not surprisingly, the final set of tests that incorporated the use of the routine pathways of the offender

were significant beyond the .0001 level of significance. The Olson series has a negligible effect on these data. This is an important finding as, more than almost any other series, the Olson series exhibited a distinct node centred pattern. Even an weyeball" examination ofthe initial contact scenes in relation to the different primary activity nodes and routine pathways of the offender show that Olson was obviously predisposed towards his awareness space (see Appendix B for maps of this and a number of other important series). It was Felt that the series might effect the findings such that the results would appear to be stronger than they actually were. Interestingly, with regards to the circle hypotheses, the Olson series was one of only two series whose entire string of offenses was not encompassed by the crime circle that used as its diameter end points the tt* 3 crime contact scenes furthest fro= each other. The one series that, almost more than any other, was predisposed by the offender's awareness space failed to displa~a distinct marauder pattern (as defined by Canter and Larkints 1993). The third battery of tescs excluded series that did not have at least one offecse within 2.5 Km of an activity node for otre set of tests and 5 Km of an activity node for a second set of tests- It vas thought that removicg these apparent corauter series vould strengthen the results - of the KoImogorov-Smiraov test. These tests demonstrate that the same pattern found in the two previous batteries of tests reappears with or without the presence of these comreuter series. The four tests using the straight line distance measures clearly showed this. All four of the tests were significant beyond the -05 level of significance and the tests comparing these frequencies to a uniform distribution were beyond the .OOOl level of significance. A large proportion of data was analyzed in each test, 80% for the 5 Km test and 31% for the 2.5 Km test. These percentages are only representative of the series included in these two batteries of tests, not the entire thesis population. The curvimeter measured distance tests were, for the most part, significant . Three of the four Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests were significant beyond the -01 level. Both tests on the uniform distribution were significant beyond the .0001 Level.

The 5 Km test included 77% of the appiicable data and the

2.5Km test included 69% of the applicable data. As in the previous tests on curvimeter distances, the 2.5- final distance increment test was not significantly different from a normal distribution. When routine pathvays are considered as part of the awareness space all four Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests were significsnt beyond the .0001 level - There seems to be little or no difference betveen the results of this battery of tests and previous tests. Removing the commuter series has no real effect.

In all, 84 Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests were performed- on these data. Eighty of these tests were significant beyond the

82 -05 level and many of those beyond even a -0001 level of significance. The only test that failed to show a consistent pattern of nor,-uniformity and non-normality with regards to

the distribution of distances was the 2.5K.m final distance increment test- As previously mentioned, a number of factors may be responsible for the anomalous results of the 2.5 Km test- Serial rapists exhibit a distinct pattern that seems to be centred on and strongly affected by the awareness space of

the offender . A distance decay pattern is distinctly displayed by this type of serial offender. It should be mentioned at this time that similar levels of significance would be found if the actual distribution was clustered at any point along the distance axis. The research hypothesis suggests that this clustering occurs in the smallest distance increments- Appendix C contains the actual numerical distribution or cumulative frequency for each of the distance increment tests (2.5 Km, 5 Km, 7 -5 Km, 10 km, 15 Km, 25 Km, and 50 KHL for both "as the crow flies" and curvimeter measured distances and 2.5 Km and 3.5 Km for the tests that included the routine pathway of the offender). Appendix C doe,; not display the numerical distribution for the battery of tests that excluded the Clifford Olson series or the battery of tests that excluded commuters. These numerical distributions clearly show that the clustering occurs towards the smaller final distance increments. This phenomenon was evident for & of the data distributions except for the 2.5 Km final distance increment distribution vhich was discussed- earlier in this chapter. The Search Area of the Serial Rapist The Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests have shown that the serial rapist exhibits a clear and consistent pattern in the selection of victims. The data that were collected for this research were based on various distances. These measurements also can be used to describe the actual distance of the likely searcharea of the serial rapist. Distances were measured, as mentioned, from the specific initial contact scenes to the closest node and the clcsest routine pathway of the offender. The set of tests that incorporated the routine pathway distances only used the pathway measurements if the distance was closer than the distance to the nearest activity node. Because both sets of distance measurements are available this information can be used to create a crude description of the serial rapist's actual search space. Distance statistics such as the mean, median, and standard deviation are the descriptors that enable this rough description of the typical search area. The distance to node measurements that are used in this research are the curvimeter distancemeasurements. It is argued that this measure of distance, although possessing some inherent problems, is the better measure of cognitive distance in the perception of the individual offenders. Only those distances closest to the ncde, as opposed to those closest to the routine pathway of the offender, were used in this tabulation. A schema of the node centred distances can then be extrapolated using the mean, median, and standard deviation as circling boundaries around the theoretical node. The distance measurements corresponding to the incidents

84 that occur closest to the routine pathway of the offender are then used to describe the typical search area around this portion of the awareness space. The mean, median, and standard deviation can then be used to extrapolate this search area. In this research no distance which was closest to a routine pathway was beyond 3.5 Km of this pcrtion of the awareness space- As may be suspected, the subsequent search area around this portion of the awareness space will be much narrower thac the node centred search area. In the node centred set the mean distance was 0.91 Km. The mean distance was 0.53 Km for the routine pathway distances. The median distance, whichmay be a better measure of central tendency in this example, of the node centred

distaaces was 0.72 Km and was 0.41 Km for the routine pathway measurements. The standard deviation for the node centred

measurements was 0-89 Km and was 0.93 Km for the routine pathway distances. This, of course, does not mean that all serial rapists will zxhibit this same distribution. As mentioned earlier, this is only a cr~dedescripgion of the search area. However, these findings have real potential for law enforcement investigations.

Other Results Information was also gathered on the most common methods of approaching the victims and on the incidence of victims that occupy a specific geographical range, These data are not essential to the *esis but they are valuable information. It is possible that serial rapists exhibit different patterns in target selection depending on their method of approach or the specific geographical range that is occupied by the of fender s preferred type of victim.

There are at least three methods of approach: the blitz; approach; the confidence or capture approach, and the quasi- acquaintance approach. The first two approaches are described in Hazelwood and Warren (1990). The "blitz" rapist typically attacks the victim suddenly, without warning, and the victim and offender usually have had no previous contact. The "conu rapist, "involves subterfuge and is predicated on the rapist's ability to interact with women1' (Hazelwood and Warren, 1990, p. 12). The rapist who picks up a prostitute or hitchhiker or en-tices a child into his car by telling them he will give them a ride home are typical examples of the "con" rapist. The third method called the quasi-acquaintance approach was defined by myself and involves the use of a non-associative relationship to gain the trust of the victim. A father who sexually exploits the friend of his child vho happens to be sleeping over for the night or a professional who sexually assaults a new client are typical examples of this type of rape. They had no previous contact prior to the day of the offense and therefore qualify under the definition of a stranger-stranger rape described in Chapter 3. This type of offense, like the con approach, is predicated on the ability of the offender to be socially dexterous enough to gain the trust of the victim, Another method, called the surprise approach, where the offender waits for the victim or approaches her when she is sleeping is mentioned by Hazelwood

86 and Warren (1990). This method is similar to the blitz

approach and was assimilated, in this set of data, into that

category. Incidects for which the method of approach is not known were designated as "unknownw. Using these broad definitions, it was found that offenders in 28.4% of the

incidents used the blitz approach. A much larger proportion

used the con approach (43.1%). Only a small percentage of

offenders used the quasi-acquaintance approach (10.8%). This

is not surprising as offenders who use this approach are much

more likely to be apprehended and thus less likely to become

serial offenders, or at least a serial offender with many

offenses. The unknown category, in which the method was not

recorded in the case files, constituted 17.6% of the data.

The large proportion of offenders used either the con or

quasi-acquaintance approach (53.9%), an approach that

necessitates the ability to act in a socially unobtrusive

manner. This supports the earlier argument in Chapter 1 that

serial rapists are much more like a next door neighbour than

they are like their sensationalized stereotype. Clearly, one valuable preventive step for serial rape would be the

education and street-proofing of the preferred victims of

serial rapists.

Seven categories of specific geographical range were used in the study: prostitute stroll, hitchhiking region (i.e. , the major highways in a population centre), licensed public facility (i..,a bat), vagrant or indigent area, public parks, other, and unknown (i-e., the record did not specify).- The great portion of incidents vere in the unknown category

87 (70.6%). It is possible that a more comprehensive knowledge of the specific areas where the incidents occurred would have

reduced this proportion. A fair proportion of incidents occurred near or on a prostitute stroll (11.8%) as well as

hitchhiking regions (10.8%). Individuals who occupy these two geographical ranges are especially vulnerable to this type of crime. Undoubtedly the number of sexual assaults that occur in these areas is grossly under-reported. This is supported in research by Nelson and Amir (1977) who discuss the vulnerability of hitchhikers and Silbert ( 1988 ) who discusses the vulnerability of prostitutes. Only 2.9% of the victims were initially contacted in a licensed public facility (i.e.,

a bar), while 3.9% were contacted in other specific geographical ranges (e-g., a college campus, a homosexual club) - The large proportion of incidents that occurred in the unknown category make any analysis of these data difficult. It should be noted that at least 2 offenders, Clifford Olson and John Oughton chose victims who occupied specific geographicalranges. Olson chose many victims in places where teens gather in large numbers such as malls, arcades, and employment offices. The case files used in the study did not usually indicate exactly what was near the initial contact scene in the Olson series and thus many of his offenses had to be noted as **unknownn. The Oughton series was not included in this count, This offender almost always chose victims in "green spacesw such as public parks, and wooded areas along roadways or elementary schools. It is to these two notorious offenders, and a few others, that we turn to in Chapter 5.

88 Cbapter Five: Subsidiary Questions

The Paperbag Rapist

The series of rapes committed by John Horace Oughton attracted a great deal of law enforcement attentior,. Several detachments and departments contributed to the investigation of the 'Tapperbagt* series and a massive volume of paperwork has been turned over to the records division of the RCMP at "EN division headquarters iir Vancouver, British Columbia. In addition to this infamation, a thorough article by Eastham

(1989) discusses the series. Eastham was a chief investigator in the "Paperbag Rapist" series and in this article provides a summary of the case from the point of the view of the law enforcement task force that vas assigned t't jnvestigate the series.

The Oughton offenses are of such notoriety that a thesis concerning serial rapists in British CoJ.umbia would be remiss if it did not attempt to discuss the series. John Oughton is unlike the 'Wypical* stranger-stranger serial rapist, if a typical serial rapist could ever be delineated, yet his case is symbolic for many reasons. No serial offender in B.C.

Ustory was so adept at causing pain and trauamtizing the lives of his victims and at the same time so adept at foiling efforts to apprehend him- By dealing with and understanding hov this offender operated researchers may begin to understand, to a much greater extent, all stranger-stranger serial rapists. In short, by dealing with the worst we my hope to gain insight into the rest. Therefore a short overview of the case will be provided. Tb2 following information vas garnered from the "E* division files and corroborates, for the most part, the description provided in the Eastham (1989) article.

Oughton committed his first known sex offense in 1974 during a Christmas vacation in Hawaii. He attacked a young nurse near the grounds of a local hospital in Honolulu. He threatened her with a weapon, led her into a bushy area, blindfolded her, and then raped her The screams of the woman were heard by several vitnesses who then contacted the police and Oughton was apprehended before he could flee the scene. Unfortunately, legal technicalities kept the offense from being prosecutcd- The case was dropped, Oughton was released fran jail, an& soon after he left Hawaii. The offense and the particular modus operandi used by the offender would later serve to link Oughton to the "Paperbag Rapistw series.

During the next year (1975) Oughton committed a number of non-sexually related criminal offenses (he may have committed sex offenses though none are reported). He was arrested for drug trafficking in March of 1976 and sentenced to 18 months in a provincial institution. Soon after his release, in April of 1977 and at the age of 27, Oughton raped two youngsters near a school yard in Vancouver. This began a series of offenses that would number at least 81 incidents and possibly encompass as many as 150 to 200 incidentsa . The series would last for 8 years, frustrate polzce investigators, and cause

untold pain and anxiety in the lives of the victims and the general population of the lover mainland. The "Paperbag Rapist" had a fairly consistent modus

operaadi. His preferred victims were young prepubescent

females, although a small number of young males and adult

females fell into the string of offenses. He would usually

attack small groups of 2 or 3 victims. The offender would entice the children into an area away from sight using some

sort of ploy. A common "eon" was that he had lost his dog and

needed help to find it. The victims, probably naive in their trust of adults and showing concern for the supposedly lost animal were led into the bushy area. Oughton vould then brandish a weapon and threaten to kill the victim(s) if they

did not accede to his demands. At times Oughton did not use any wcon**in his approach and would simply threaten the victim(s) outright and force them into the bush. He would threaten the life of all the victims present and often threatened the lives of the victim's family. Only a few of the victims Oughton attacked were adult females. In these cases, he seemed to prefer women who were with an infant or

It should be remembered that individual incidents often involved two or more victims. The records unit at "E" division notes 81 separate incidents with over 140 separate victims attributed to the series. These records included only those offenses for which clear evidence identified Oughton as the attacker. The 150 - 200 incidents figure is probably the more accurate approxiaation of the true number of incidents committed by the offender. child. After confronting the adult victim he vould threaten

the iafant or child's life so as to force the adult woman to accede to his demands-

In a small number of the cases, where more than one

victim was involved, Oughton displayed what can only be termed as a monstrous callousness when he forced the victims to choose the one among them that would be assaulted. The others would be forced to watch the act or sit on top of their friend while their frfend was assaulted. This was only one of several behaviotirs exhibited by Oughton that were intended to

humiliate the victims. Before beginning the sexual act, the "Paperbag Rapistn took measures to ensure that the victim(s) would not be able to adequately describe his appearance to the

authorities. He often blindfolded the victims either with material brought to the scene or with their ovn clothing. In a few cases he placed a paperbag with cut out eye holes over his head. In a few incidents he blindfolded the victim(s) placed a bag over his head. In a number of offenses Oughton took further measures to disguise himself. He often wore wigs, coloured contact lenses, and theatrical makeup. These measures, coupled with the young age of the victims and the trauma that ensued from the crimes, resulted xn poor descriptions of the rapist. The age of the offender was reported in sow cases to be in his 20s and in others in his mid 40s. So- said he had brovn hair while others said his hair was blonde. His reported weight had a large range as well. In some incidents the offender fled from the - crime on foot, in others by torc cycle, and in others a car. These

92 factors, and others, frustrated any at tempt to apprehend him.

It is not surprising that the police were unable to detecL and arrest Ocghton for such a long time. The list of suspects and 'Tip" files vas enormous. Literally hundreds of possible suspects and tips were investigated by the police, Oughton never surfaced as a suspect at any time until near the very end of the series. The different investigators in the case were frustrated by jurisdictional and bureaue ratiu problems- An inter-detachment task force was not established until after Oughton" first arrsst in May of 1985. After finishing his "typicalw assault Oughton continued his play of dominance and cruelty by threatening the victims that he would either kill them or "turn them over to his friendsn if they talked about the offense. In many of the cases he would rob the victims of what little money they had on them. This signature portion of his offenses served to be a major linking behaviour in the series.

In Hay of 1985 the '"Paperbag Rapistw finally made a mistake- Oughton drove to a local park near the Fraser river in Burnaby. He saw an adult woman walking her young child and decided to attack her. He came near her and began threatening her life and the life of her child if she did not do as he said. He presented vhat looked like a gun and the woman, obviously frightened, acceded to his threat and was led through a small creek into a bushy area. His actions did not go unnoticed, A number of vitnesses heard the womanqs screams and came neat the attack site to investigate.. One witness ran to a nearby telephone and called the Burnaby RCWP. Oughton

93 heard the vitnesses"vvoices and after finishing the assault

fled the scene. He ran thraugh the creek and into a bushy

area- The woman continued to scream and was soon found by the

witnesses. Soon after this the police arrived and began

questioning the group- The victim was taken away, after which

Oughton approached the police and stated that he saw the

offender run away in a different direction, He stated that someone on a bicycle had ridden past him carrying a gun.

Almost iarmediately the attending RCMP officers noticed that

Oughron vas behaving oddly- His shoes and pants vere wet up to his knees, suggesting that he had recently crossed the creek where the vlctim had been found. The RGMP members asked

his name. Oughton gave it and he was arrested for the rape.

Once in the Burnaby jail the RCMP began verifying Oughton" story and criminal record. They found that Oughton had earlier been charged with tvo counts of rape- The first was the Hawaiian sexual assault in 1974 and the second was a stayed 1980 rape charge tbat had occurred while Oughton was on st visit to Vernon. a small city a few hours drive from

Vancsuvsr- Soon after this the RCMP realized they had apprehended the "Paperbag Rapist". The victimts statement identified the crime clearly as one similar to the rest of the offenses In the series- Later, in a line-up at the Burnaby jail, Ougbton was identified by the victim as her attacker.

The RQlP decided to release Oughton from jail until they could ascertain that he was indeed the "Paperbag Rapistn.

In the meantime they had decided to place Uughton- under constant awrveillance- A task force was organized comprised

94 of officers from the involved RCMP detachments and the New Westminster, Delta, and Vancouver police departments. Oughton soon discovered that he was under surveillance and consequently tried to keep his offense drive under control. To avoid arousing his suspicions further, the police organized photo-lineups and "decoyw line-ups where Oughton was made to come to a particular detachment at a certain time. A number of the victims would be placed in rooms with one way glass that would look out on an area which Oughton would have to pass. Previously, and after his appearance, several persons dressed to look similar to Oughton would pass by this area.

The victims were expected to pick out Oughton wherr he appeared- This was only partially successful a3 Oughton usually disguised himself when he came to the particular detachment. Perhaps discerning the real reason for the police request to come to the detachment Oughton wore glasses, trimmed his moustache, vore different clothes, and took a ntlmber of other measures to ensure his appearance was modified. Oughton had an amazing ability to alter his appearance. I examined several police photogra2hs of Oughton taken at the time of his various arrests and noted large differences between them. At times he looked like a vagrant or street person, in others he looked professional and business like, and in others like a tough, %biker type" criminal. Even his race seemed to differ picture to picture- In some photographs he appeared clearly caucasian and in others East Indian.2 During these months of surveillance Oughton tried a number of times to continue his series. One attempted sexual assault of an acquaintance of Oughton's occurred near Mt. Baker in Washington- The offense was quickly foiled by U.S. border patrol officers who had been alerted to Oughton's presence by the RCMP surveillance team. Another victim, mistaken to be his girlfriend, was seen in the same car as Oughton. The surveillance team lost Oughton's vehicle in the traffic and only after the offense had occurred did they realize the victia was not Oughton's girlfriend. The victim was terrified and embarrassed after the incident and refused to identify Oughton as her attacker. Another attempt in

August was foiled by the RCm. Finally, in October of 1985 he was arrested for the final time in yet another attempted sexual assault. Oughton was made to stand in yet another line-up while over 125 of his victims attempted to identify him. Only 2C were able to do so and from these, indictments on 18 counts of various sex offenses were brought against Oughton by the Crovn prosecutor. On February 26, 1987 Oughton was found guilty on 14 of the 18 counts. A few months later he vas declared a dangerous offender and sentenced to an indeterminate period in a federal penitentiary.

Criminal Geographic Targe f ing and the Oughton Series

As stated earlier, including the Oughton series in the - Oughton is Caucasian but with a fairly dark complexion. earlier Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests would have resulted in a number of methodological problems. Long series such as the

Oughton offenses are fortunately rare, but it would be helpful to have some technique that might be used to understand the spatial targeting patterns of such offenders and, hopefully, apprehend them as early as possible. The CGT procedure developed by Rossmo (1993) and explained in Chapter 3 is just such a technique- As explained earlier, CGT examines the spatial informatton associated with a series and attempts to determine the most likely location of the offender's primary node, usually his residence. Using a summation of scores produced for each offense in a series, the resultant score identifies the likelihood that a given point incorporates the primary node of the offender. As stated by Rossmo (1993),

The lsuccessl of the CGT model in a gimn case can be measured by determining the ratio of the total number of points with equal or higher scores to the total number of points in the hunting area. In other vords, in what percentage of the total area would the offender's residence be found by a process that started in the locations with the highest scores and then worked down? The smaller that percentage (referred to as the 'hit percentage'), the more successful the model. With a uniform score distribution, the hit percentage would be, on average 50%. (p- 88)

The CGT score for the "Paperbag Rapist" series was 0.248%, showing that the series vas spatially consistent. The highest score on the entire computer generated map was the exact pixel that included Oughton's residence. Frog this it can be concluded that this of Eender exhibited a clear spatial pattern of target selection, A number of other high points on the CGT map were probably directed by Oughton's other activity nodes.

An alternate technique that also would be effective in analyzing this series vould require the use of specially designed GIs corsputer software. Oughton attacked in a specific geographical range as almost all his victims were assaulted in some area of "green space". It would be possible vith a GIs program to ignore the "concrete space" in Olsanls hunting area and create an approximation of a cognitive map that only includes areas suitable to this rapist's modus operandi (see Huxhold, 1991; and Star and Estes, 1990 for a discussion of GIs) - An analysis of distance points such as distance decay analysis or the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test could then be implemented using as rav data the modified distances on this cognitive map- That Oughton exhibited such a clear pattern of target selection is hardly surprising. It is very likely that

Oughton mapped out his offenses. A neighbour and a surveillance officer, who met with Oughtcn undercover in his home, bot3 saw a wall map of the Greater Vancouver area that had many pins or dots marked on the map. The undercover officer was able to photograph the map. Oughton destroyed it sonretime between his first and final arrest. Unfortunately the records division did not have a copy of the photograph on file.

Criminal Geographic Targeting and the 01son Series

As prolific as Oughton was as a stranger-stranger serial rapist, Clifford Olson holds the dubious distinction as the most infamous or notorious sex offender in B-C. history.- The VICLAS unit for the RCMP's "Em Division, which is a

cooperative partner in this research, holds a large number of records concerning this offender- Two works, Wulgrew (1991) and Ferry and Inwood (1982) discuss the series in depth and with satisfactoryaccuracy, although they conspicuously ignore the large number of sexual assaults committed by Olson during the 20 month period from January, 1980 to his arrest in

August, 1981. Interestingly, Olson's profile on his own case

(Olson, 1989) neglects to mention of the numerous sex offenses that he committed during this time. Olson seems embarrassed by his long list of non-homicide sex offenses. It is as though he believes that being known as a murderer of 11 youngsters is somehow less reprehensible than being a sexual ~ffenderas well.

Only 25 of the many Olson sex offenses were used in this analysis (11 sexually related homicides and 14 other sex offenses). Olson committed sex offenses against acquaintances as well as strangers and these acquaintance offenses as well as a number of stranger-stranger offenses that occurred but for which the victim was unable to remember the location of the initial contact scene were not used in the earlier test or in the following CGT test. Furthermore, only those sex offenses that occurred in this 20 month period were used. Olson has an extensive criminal record dotted with various sex offenses that occurred in almost every city in which he ever lived. Because these offenses occurred in distinct population centres autside of the lower mainland they had to be-excluded from the test. Olson's coinciding series of acquaintance

99 rapes supparts LeBeau" (1987) sEatement that a fair portion of serial rapists usually end up attacking persons they knowt mile in most cases this would end (or defer ) a series with incarceration, in Olson's case he remained unapprehended. Olson was so adept in the manipulation of the criminal justice system :hat he avoided prosecution for almost sll of his oon- homicide sex offenses, acquaintance and stranger offenses alike. Most people would categorize Olson as a serial murderer and not as a serial rapist. This offender does fit the definition of a serial rapist discussed in Chapter 3 and as such was used in tne analysis. Case files held by the RCBP indicate that Olson probably murdered only those victims who he thought most likely to identify him. It is believed that he gauged the response of his victims to the chloral hydrate pills used to subdue them: he appeared to have been less likely to murder those who were strongly affected by the drugs- He exhibited the same pattern in target selection regardless of whether the result of the offense was a homicide or a sexual assault. In one unpublished manuscript, Olson mentions that he murdered the victims because he did not vant them to talk to the police [Olson, 1992) .. Deviant sexual fulfilment, not homicide, was apparently Olson*s primary motive and thus the categorization of him as a serial rapist is appropriate-

As described earlier, the target selection pattern exhibited by Olson vas obviously affected by his awareness- space .. The GCT score supports this conclusion- The series is 100 more complex than the Oughton series because Olson moved in the midst of The series from Surrey (a borough just south and east of Vancouver) to Coquitlam (a borough east of Vancouver and directly north of Surrev). The Olson series resulted in a CGT score of 1- 63% for the Coquitlam residence and 13.3% for the Surrey residence. The test excluded two cases that appeared to act as outliers. Both of these CGT scores demonstrate that Olson exhibited a clear pattern in target selection. This finding, and that in the earlier Oughton series, shows the ncility of the CGT test. The test may be used in concert with other investigative procedures to identify a likely suspect or at least narrow the list of suspects. Had the test been used in the investigation

{unfortunately it had not been developed at the time) of these series these offenders might have been apy tehended much earlier -

Other Criminal Geographic Targeting Scores

The CGT analysis was also used on a more recent series that took place in surrey' (again, a borough just south and east of Vancouver but still in the general. area of Greater

Vancouver or the lover mainland), The of fender commi t ted 7 known sex offenses over a 16 month period- One offense, that seemed to act as an outlier, was excluded in tile CGT test.

This offender also moved during the series. The CGT score for the first address was 8.43% and 48.8% for the second

' Privacy Act constraints prevent the publication of infotration that cauld be used to identify this offender. residence. This finding suggests that the offender was

affected by the avareness space associated vith his first address. fn a final test, the CGT analysis was used on a series that occurred in ~amloo~s'(a town located a few hours drive

vest of Greater Vancouver an Highway #I) betveen Novzmber of 1990 and October of 1991- This offender assaulted four

victims during this period. The CGT score for this series was

45. SX, hardly an encouraging finding. It is probable that the

small number ctf cases associated with this series contributed to this result- These two tests provide further support for the usefulness of the CGT procedure, but also present obvious

limitations for smllzr series. Ultimately, any analysiz of a series is dependent on the number of events in the series.

me Utility of Research on the Spatial Pattern of Target Sc2ection The results of the Kalmogorov-Smirnov tests and the CGT

tests show that the avareness space of the serial rapist has a definite effect on his spatial pattern of target selection. This finding, if used in searches for at large serial rapists, will enable investigative units to focus their attention on factors in the pattern of the initial contact scenes of a serfal sexual assaulter and perhaps increase the effectiveness of the investigation. It should be remembered that such geographical analysis is only =ant to accompany and assist

' As fa the earlier e-le, Privacy Act constraints prevent the publication of inforration that could be used to -identify this of fender, normal police procedures in criminal investigations. It is not meant to replace them. One possible application of this research could be in linkage analysis such as that conducted by the VICLAS units of

the IZCHP. Examining the geographical qualities of a series will enable an analyst to determine if potential linkages are

supported by the overall pattern exhibited by the suspect. AS vill be discussed in the next chapter, there appears to be a number of types and sub-types of serial rapists differentiated by their method of target selection.

Take, for example, a series that occurred in 1991. The offender began the series in Prince Rupert, a coastal town north of Vancouver, and continued to offend when he moved to the lover mainland to look for work. This series was one of only two series for vhicb a vehicle vas never used at any time during any of the crimes. The offender attacked very close to his activity nodes and routine pathways, no doubt due ta the limitations of being on foot. k number of his crimes were Linked together by the VICLAS unit and the offender was later apprehended largely due to the efforts of this unit. The offender had a clear geographical selection pattern as is show in figure 6.

{figure 6 about here)

Offenses #1 and #2 in the series occurred in a small town

La, northern British Columb5a, very close to the offender's residence- The tw offenses ararked as PLl and PL2 are potential linkages and vere attributed to the offender althou* further evidence failed to substantiate either 103

linkage. Knowing that serial rapists exhibit clear patterns of target selection, as documented in Chapter 4, and that this offender seems consistent in his own pattern of selection can help the analyst determine which of the potential linkages are, in fact, likely to have been committed by the of fender in question.

In this example it appears that the PL1 incident is more consistent with the pattern than the PL2 incident. Knowing this could lead the analyst to make one of two valid decisions. First, the analyst has a valuable source of information to further support his or her decision that the

PLI incident was committed by the offender in question.

Second, if he or she still feels that the PL2 incident bears the markings of the offender in ques tion1s modus operandi then the analyst may explore whether the area in which the PL2 incident occurred is actually within the awareness space of the offender in question. It is possible that a previously unnoticec? piece of information such as the location of a work address or a friend's residence is in close proximity to the

PL2 incident.

Another example of how this research may be used effectively vould be in the linkage analysis of unknown offender series. In the last example the identity of the offender was not in question, only certain offenses that he may have been responsible for were in dispute. Figure 7 shows a series for which the offender in the series is unknown.

{figure 7 about here)

Knowing that serial rapists exhibit clear patterns of target

selection, as documented in Chapter 4, and that both offenders seem consistent in their own pattern of selection can help the

analyst determine from a list of suspects who is the most

likely of the suspects to have committed the offenses.

Offenses 1 and X3 vere both initially contacted in close

proximity to one another and along a major transportation

route, perhaps a routine pathway of the offender. Offense #2 was initially contacted close to a major highway but in a

residential area. If this offender were a marauder type

serial rapist it is possible that he has some primary activity

node near the residential area and engages in activities that take place on the route where the first and third victims vere contacted5. The analyst can look at the data and determine

if any of the suspects have an awareness space that conforms to the above hypothesis- Criminal investigators, of courss, already use similar methods in their analysis of unknown offender series- However, these methods are usually based on

intuition and speculation. The above process removes some of

the subjectivity and speculation from crime linkage analysis.

As suggested earlier, using geographic patterns in

linkage analysis is only a supportive measure. Rossmo (1994) states that, "all profiling, whether geographic or

- - As the Canter and Larkin (1993) definitions of a marauder and coammter vere found to be problematic the term marauder, as it used in this sense and throughout most of the rest of the thesis, refers to a serial rapist who is predisposed in his spatial selection pattern tovards the primary activity noded of his avareness space. psychological, is only capable of making probabilistic suggestions - not definitive statements - concerning some component of the of fender's nature." It would be simple to

tag a number of offenses that have occurred in a certain area

to any suspect who happens to live or work in the same area. The initial linkage of a suspect to a crime must be made through a reliable linkage analysis method such as by modus operandi, series signature, vitness or victim identification, and offender confession.

The Temporal Nature of Series and Serial Rapists There is some question about whether or not the serial rapist and his spatial pattern of target selection vill evolve (for lack of a better word) during the series. This transformatian may be evident in changes in their geographic pattern of victim selection, changes in their preferred victim type, changes in the amount of violence exercised during the offense, and changes in the modus operandi and signature of the series. There is also some question about: the qualitative differences between *effectivew and "ineffectivew6 serial rapists. Each af these subsidiary questions will be discussed in turn.

Changes in Geographic Pattern and Preferred Victim Type Ln order to determine if changes occur in the geographic

' It should he remembered that the terms effective and faeffective are used only in relation to the ability of the serial rapist to avoid detection and apprehension. pattern exhibited by the of fender, the various reasons for why a serial rapist begins with a certain pattern must be understood. It is possible that a serial rapist may begin selecting victims far away or on the outer reaches of his awareness space and as he gains confidence begin to choose victims closer to a primary node. It is also possible that a serial rapist may begin more as a msrauder, attacking victims towards the core of his awareness space, then, fearing possible identification with the crimes, begin selecting victims more as a commuter. In the 30 series examined in this study only 4 series seemed to make a geographic pattern shift.

The first of these 4 series (the Surrey series for which the

CGT test was conducted), was comprised of 7 total incidents and began as a marauder type series. The first four crimes were selected very close to the offender's residence. Soon after the fourth offense the offender moved to a different borough and his last 3 offenses occurred far away from either residence and some distance from each other.

The second and third series were each comprised of four sex offenses. Although their pattern of selection seemed to change the relatively small number of offenses in each series

-Ices it difficult to assume that a definite shift in type had occurred. The last of these 4 series coincided with a shift in the preferred victim type of this serial rapist- The series was comprised of 7 incidents, the first 3 indicated a marauder pattern of selection, Some time elapsed between the third and fourth known offense (the offender married and was apparently trying to give up his past patterns of criminal

109 behaviour). By the time the fourth offense had occurred (soon

after his marriage had failed) the offender's preferred victim

had changed from women alone in apartments to prostitutes.

Because of the specific geographical ranges occupied by

prostitutes the offender was forced to become more of a

commuter. Only a small number of offenders, 4 out of 30, ever

changedtheir geographic pattern of target selection. The two

longest series in this study, the Olson series and the Oughton

series, remained entirely consistent in their patterns of

stranger-stranger target selection throughout the series.

Changes in the preferred victim type were even less

likely to occur. The only clear example of such a shift was

the example given above of the offender who began selecting prostitutes. LeBeau (1987a), supported by Lisak and Roth

(1990), mentions that one of the main differences between at large and apprehended serial offenders is that apprehended offenders attacked someone they knew. A number of the serial offenders attacked acquaintances either near or at the end of their series although never in any numbers to suggest that their pattern of preferred victim had itself changed. It is f ikely that the offender, knowing that he has "gotten away1' with a number of offenses becomes comfortable with the idea of victimizing acquaintances. In these cases the "buffer zonew of the offender dissipates, and like the example of thz potential car thief mentioned in Chapter 1, as they become proficient in their crime they subsequently redefine their view of what constitutes a suitable opportunity to- commit crime i.,the range of suitable targets or victims increases). In a number of the cases these acquaintance sexual assaults led to the eventual capture of the serial rapist because the victim was able to provide the police with a name and description of the offender.

Changes in the Use of Violence

Using the charges brought against the offender as a measure of violence (e.g., sexual assault as less violent than sexual assault with a weapon which is less violent than aggravated sexual assault which is less violent than attempted murder which is less violent than a sexually related murder) it was found that only a few of the series exhibited any significant escalation in violence. This is somewhat misleading in that many of the series were so violent that the only possible escalation would be to an attempted murder or murder of the victim. Only 4 series seemed to escalate in the amount of violence used in the assault. Two of these series were comprised of only 2 or 3 incidents and thus do not allow for any strong analysis of their patterns. The third of these

4 was the series mentioned above in which the serial rapist began selecting prostitutes. The series endedwith the murder of the seventh victim. However, the murder occurred as the result of a struggle between the victim and offender. Once the offender threatened the victim she responded by attacking him and almost disabling him. The serial rapist was nevertheless able to stab the victim before she could flee.

It could be argued that the Olson series escalated in 111 violence. The series was comprised of 25 offenses. According to the chronology provided by the VICLAS files on Olson, the series began with 3 sexual assaults, then the first murder, a sexual assault, then the second murder, 3 more sexual assaults, then the third murder, 3 more sexual assaults, then the fourth murder, a sexual assault, then the fifth to eleventh murders. Three other sexual assaults for which the exact dates were unknown also occurred during this time. The

chronology may be slightly inaccurate but che salient point is that seven of the 11 murders occurred near the very end of the series. As mentioned earlier, this change, according to RCMP case files and by Olson*s own admission (Olson, 1992) , had more to do with the offender's desire to avoid detection and apprehension than any qualitative change in his fantasy. It should be noted that in both series in which offenders altered their levels of violence they apparently did so because of environmental factors and not because of any qualitative cognitive change in their particular fantasy. The longest series, the Oughton series, did not escalate in violence during the entire eight years of the offenses. Oughton exhibited almost no modus operandi change during the entire series (or at least no change in the cases attributed to him). The only changes in his modus operandi occurred when he was under surveillance- Using the charges brought against an offender as a seasure of violence is problematic. Often the charges, especially those regarding violent crime, are - more a reflection of the legal process than of the actual behaviour

that occurred. Future research in this drea should alsa

examine other records such as victim statements and initial

police reports to ascertain the quantum of violence used in a

particular crime.

Ineffective and Effective Serial Rapists

As expected, the major qualitat ivlz difference be tween

ineffective (n < 5) and effective (n > 5) serial rapists is

that effective serial rapists do not, for most of the series,

attack persons they know. As explained above, a number of the

effective series ended soon after they had assaulted an

acquaintance. The ineffective serial rapist group was

comprisedboth of offenders who attacked persons they knew but who still qualified under the definition of a stranger-

stranger sexual assault given in Chapter 3 and offenders who

attacked only persons vith whcm they had had no previous

contact- Only one of the effective series, the Olson series, had any significant proportion of acquaintance sexual offenses

that coincided with the stranger-stranger series. Olson

comitted sex offenses against friends both young and old, the

children of friends, babysitters, fellow church goers, and a number of others. These offenses, as mentioned earlier, were not included in the series used in the earlier tests. Chapter Six: Conclusion

Setiat sexual assault is a criminal behaviour that has

not received m~chacademic attention. This work attempted to answer questions or hypotheses regarding the geographic patterns that the serial rapist exhibits in the selection of his victims, In addition to this, a number of subsidiary questions were answered regarding spatial and non-spatial patterns of this behaviour. The major findings of the thesis are summarized in table 13. (table 13 about here)

As reported in Chapter 4, the population of B.C. serial rapists did not exhibit a proclivity towards a single spatial pattern. By contrast Canter and Larkin (1993) discovered a strong predisposition towards marauder behaviour (87% of their sample). In the thesis, roughly equal percentages were classified as marauders (56.6%) and as commuters (43.4%) . It was suggested that these differing proportions may be due to differences in English and British Columbia urban g~s~raphy or inherent methodological problems with the circle test. Because of this, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for goodness of fit was used to examine the data set.

The Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests suggested that the research distributions were non-normal and non-uniform and that the spatial selection of targets is clustered around the serial rapists awareness spaces. One test, on a smaller portion of the data, suggested the possibility that there may be-a buffer

zone immediately surrounding acrxvity nodes vhere the serial

rapist wiil not select targets. A number of other tests vere

conducted to examine the robustness of these results. Likely

routine pathways were included in one battery of tests; in

another set of tests, a large volume series vas excluded to

see if its inclusion in the original tests had any skewing ef iect on the findings; and in another test, serial rapists

vha always at tacked some distance from the activity node were

excluded to see if they had a skewing effect on the original tests. These subsequent tests support the overall validity of the findings in the first battery of Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests.

In Chapter 5, a procedure called CGT vas used to answer a subsidiary question regarding vhether initial contact scenes could be used tc identify likely portions of the awareness space of the offender. As reported in that chapter, a number

of tests (all of vhich vere after the fact) correctly predicted the locations of known portions of the particular @ffenderws avateness space.

This thesis suggests that the awareness space is a powgrful variable that rust be considered when examining crhinal behaviours such as serial rape. An offender searches for targets along farlliar routes between and near established pri~ryactivity nodes. This conclusion is supported by a great deal of research concerning this and other criminal bcbaviours,

A large amount of research, sosle of vhich was reviewed in

Chapter 2, as Adr ( 1971 Canter and 1993 such ) , Larkin- ( ) , ErXani9m 11946), Gaibor and Gottheil (1984), LeBeau (1987b), 116 Pyle (19741, Rand (19861, Rhodes and Conly (1981), Topalin (l992), and White (1932) a11 examined rape or serial rape and reached the same conclusion--that the awareness space, or principal portions of it, seems to affect spatial selection patterns- In turn, these findings are generally consistent

vitk journey to crime research on other criminal behaviours such as Rengert and Wasilchick+s (1985) and Ctomwell, Olson

and Avaryrs (1991) examination of burglary and Feeney's ( 1986) analysis of robbery- The salient point here, is that the findings of this thesis are generally consistent with other research in Environmental Criminology and related fields. This thesis is unique in that it is the first study to examine how cognitive elements (i.e., using routine pathways, primary activity nodes other than the residence of the offender, and probable travel routes) affect the microspatial, behaviour of &he serial rapist. However, this was not, by any means, a comprehensive vork on the spatial activity of the serial rapist. Future research on the spatial nature of the serial rapist's crimes will increase the meagre understanding that academia has of tbis type of criminal. This thesis ie sorevhat limited in its descriptive power. The work did not control. for a number of important qualitative elements that future research should take the careful steps of considering.

Suggestions for Future Research As described in Chapter 4, future studies should control

for the spec5fic geagraphieal range occupied by the preferredw vIcths of given of fenders, This is not to suggest that all, 117 or even most, serial rapists choose victims who occupy a specific range, but such offenders do exist in enough numbers to warrant the careful consideration of this contingency. Some victim groups are well known for their tendency to occupy a specific street or area of a city. Unfortunately, for researchers, the location of these areas is usually not static. Take, for example, prostitute strolls, a common target area of many of the most violent stranger-stranger serial sex of fenders. Some strolls, usually the poorest, have existed for decades if not centuries. However, other strolls are created and later fall dormant or extinct within a matter of months. Retroactive analysis is almost impossible unless a researcher is fortunate enough to find a publication that lrpentions the location of strolls at given times. A researcher should make her or himself avare of the nature of the urban milieu they are examinlng.

As described in Chapter 4, future studies also should control for the different loadi operandi employed by different serial rapists - Some modi operandi are affected more strongly by the awareness space of the offenders than others. The quasi-acquaintance arodus operandi, for example, will usually be used In close proximity to the offender's awareness space.

This modus operandi is predicated on some associative knowledge betveen the victim and offender and any interface between such persons will, most often, only occur in either or both of the victim's and offender's avareness space.

As described in the last chapter, future studies should control for violence escalating serial rapists. Only a few offenders actually demonstrated a marked increase in either

fantasy driven or incidental violence, yet this factor may introduce a sizable amount of error into research findings. The researcher should be attentive to environmental factors that may be responsible for the shift in the escalation of violence used in the series. Finally, future studies must control for the geographic type of series within a sample of data. The two categories of marauder and commuter have been described, redefined , and used throughout this work, but there are other types and sub-types of these categories that were evident in the thesis population. Future studies should examine the particular type of series comprising the sample and examine the patterns displayed by each type of series. The following is a taxonomy of serial rapist series. It is not meant to be comprehensive and relates only to variations in the spatial pattern of target selection-

Harauder Series : Similar to the definition described in Canter and Larkin (1993) this series is characterized by a condition in which the serial rapist is predisposed in his spatial selection pattern towards the primary activity nodes

of his awareness space- As a controlling factor, the offenders must consistently travel less than 5 Km from a primary activity node- The Olson offenses are a typical example of this type of series. See Appendix B for an illustration of this marauder series. Commuter Series: Similar to the definition described in

Canter and Larkin (1993), this series is most often

characterized by a condition in which the home range and

criminal range of the serial rapist do not overlap each other.

Included in such a category are any offenders who consistently

travel further than 5 Km from a primary activity node to the

initial contact scene. I have found that these types of

offenders will usually stay very close to the major

thoroughfare that brought them to the initial contact scene.

See Appendix B for a typical illustration of a commuter series.

Organized / Methodical Series: This series occurs in an apparently random manner that the offender presumably hopes will help him elude detection and apprehension. The geographic pattern may not, at first, be noticeable and only display a pattern if rigorous analysis such as CGT is conducted on the crime scene data. The series is reflective of the stereotype that many in the general public have of the serial rapist, but is actually very rare. The series is a sub-type of both the marauder and the commuter series. The

"Paperbag Rapist" series is an example of this type of series. See Appendix B for a diagram of this organized / methodical series.

Forced Pattern Series: A series that exhibits a pattern constrained by the specific geographical range of the preferred victim. Examples of ranges include prostitute strolls, bars, schoolyards, college campuses, and public parks. This series is a commuter sub-type. See Appendix B 120 for a diagram of a forced pattern series. Foot Series: This series is a sub-type of both the marauder type and the commuter type- The series is characterized by an offender vho contacts/attacks/escapes on foot. This type of offender will usually attack much closer to the node than a rapist who uses a vehicle. See Appendix B for diagrams of a foot series. Opportunist Series: Offenders who select victims they are entrusted with or vho contact the victim through a mutual

acquai ~ltance. The offender uses the quasi-acquaintance modus operandi described earlier and is a sub-type of the marauder series. It may be useful to exclude this type of series from future analysis on stranger-stranger sexual assaults. See Appendix B for an illustration of the opportunist series.

Breaking and Enterinp as Primary Motive Series : Is a sub-type of both .the marauder type and commuter type. The serial offender will rape seemingly as an afterthought to his property offense. Hazelwood and Burgess (1987a) and Scully and Marolla (1985) indicate that burglary or theft was often involved in the rape incidents they studied. It may be necessary to distinguish between the rape/primary motive serial offender and the burglary/primary motive serial offender. It may be useful to examine whether serial rape escalates first from burglary (invasion of privacy-household) to the rape (invasion of privacy-the body) to any further, more violent, offenses- This series type is a pure sub-type and is therefore not necessary to diagram in Appendkx B. Hybrid Series: An offender vho exhibits at least two of the above series types. It may be useful to categorize the series according to their most common method of attack, or almost all series will be of this type. This category should be used only to describe offenders who use two or more methods in fairly equal proportions. See Appendix B for a diagram of a hybrid series - In addition to the problems mentioned above that need to be controlled for in future research, are several additional

,ests and analyses, not used in the thesis, that could contribute effectively to tbe understanding of the serial rapist's spatial pattern of target selection. The first of these regards the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. As explained in Chapters 3 and 4, the Kolmogcrov-Smirnov test used in this thesis compared the population distribution to a normal and uniform distribution, as well as a few tests on a Poisson distribution. The results of the various tests indicate, for the most part, that the population distribution is not normal, uniform, or Poisson (in the cases compared to this distribution) but the tests did not indicate what type of distribution the thesis population, in fact, followed. Future research should examine sample distributions to determine which among the known probalistic distributions the serial rapist exhibits in his pattern of selection, The population distribution seems to follov the parameters of a gamma distribution. A number of statistical tests could easily investigate this supposition. A second worthwhile test would require the use of a cross tabulation. As mentioned earlier, this analysis used other primary activity nodes, such as work locations and recent past residences, when they were available. If a suitable number of activity nodes were consistently noted for a group of serial rapists an examination could be conducted to determine if there is a predisposition towards the selection of victims near, or closest to, given types of primary activity nodes. By using a simple cross tabulation a researcher could note the observed and expected frequencies for each type of node. The residence of the offender during the time period of the series is the most likely to demonstrate a nodal predisposition. The test would be able to show the relative strength of the current residence, and other types of nodes, on microspatial criminal behaviour and, if a propensity for the current residence is observed, support domocentric analyses on serial rape such as that conducted by Canter and Larkin (1993).

Accomplishments of the Thesis One of the most difficult obstacles in the work and writing of this thesis was that it had to be conceived with little assistance from past research. It was not able to build on the excellent research of others. The Canter and Larkin (1993) study was valuable in that it showed a definite direction of where research on serial rape should go, but no other study had dealtwith the spatial activity of the serial rapist. The Brantingham and Brantingham (1984, 1991) model provided a theoretical base from vhich to work, but_they had not applied their analysis to serial rape. In cooperation

123 with the RCMPss VZCLAS unit at "E" division headquarters I was able to compose fundamental definitions that had to be established if a reliable study on this behaviour was to be performed. This work is original on this point alone. Serial rape is a unique criminal behaviour that exhibits its own distinct geographical patterns. Its closest cousins, as far as criminal behaviours, are serial murder and single rape. This is an important point as both serial murder and especially single rape have a large depository of research, spatial and non-spatial, on their specifics. If the patterns of the serial rapist are indistinguishable from those of single offense rapists and serial murderers then the value of this project would be greatly reduced. Undoubtedly, analysis on serial murder and rape (which usually does not control for the presence of serial rapists) will have within their samples aproportion of serial rapists. LeBeau (1985, 1992) notes the effect that serial rapists have on the conclusions of rape and rape related research and concludes, as do I, that the serial rapist is a distinct type of criminal. This thesis, using a precise statistical methodology, established that serial rapists exhibited a spatial pattern of target selection that is affected by the awareness space of the offender. This is, of course, the most important contribution of the research. It is hoped that this work will allow researchers to begin to understand the serial rapist, to learn from the mistakes of this work, and to conduct even more rigorous and valuable analysis. Finally, it is hoped that this work will contribute to the depository of knowledge on 124 the spatial activity of criminal behaviour.

A major accomplishment of this work is that it is potentially applicable to law enforcement practise. Although something of a pioneer study in this field, it is hoped that, in collaboration with future research, major advancements in the efficiency of investigative and linkage analysis units will be noted. The work was produced with the cooperation and invaluable input of law enforcement personnel. They were able to suggest what research would be most beneficial to their own work and suggested potential pitfalls that needed to be avoided in the research. This led to a thesis with greater utility and applicability. Serial sexual assault is a terrible crime and there will certainly be serial rapists for as long as there are segments of society that devalue and objectify women and revere men who dominate the vulnerable and use violence as a means of gaining power. It is important to deal with this offense at many levels. This work did not explore issues related to society as a whole or consider fundamental social conditions that might allow serial sexual assault to occur. The thesis focused on offender activities proximate to the commission of a series of sexual assaults. It is hoped that this research vill lead to the apprehension of serial rapists with greater frequency and that they will be apprehended earlier than they otherwise would have been. Although idealistic, I must conclude that if the result of this work is such that even one individual is spared the trauma of this crime I will consider it to be successful. Bibliography

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environmental ' factors in Indianapolis. Social Forces, 10, 498-509. Wolfgang, M.E., Figlio, R.M., and Sellin T. (1972). Delinquency in a Birth Cohort. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. Appendix A: Series Classification

The class I series is the most common class of series.

Twenty-five of the 30 series in the thesis population are class I series.

-1 Victim II

Victim 2 Offender A Victim 3 The structure of the class I1 series is straightforward.

TWO of the 30 series in the thesis population are class I1 series.

1Victim B

- Victim 3 Offender B Victh 4 . The organization of the class I11 series is usually unstable and will often separate into class I and class I1 series as more cases (i-e., serial rapes) are identified. The example above shows only one of a number of possible combinations which may be identified as class 111 series. Two of the 30 series in the thesis population are class 111 series. The class IV series is probably the rarest of all series. None of the 30 series in the thesis population are class fV series.

Class IV Series - Victim 1 Offender AL Victim 2 1

Victim 5 ' Offender B- r - -1 -1 Victim 4 I

Victim 7 Offender D- A potential class V series might result from a youth gang who use rape as a method of initiation into the gang. The class V series can have any number of combinations only one of which is shown here. Only 1 of the 30 series in the thesis population is a class V series.

Victim I I I Offender AL

-1 -1 Victim 4 1 Appendix B: Series Types

Marauder Series : Figure 8 (series #18) is typical of the marauder series, relative to the definition given in Chapter 6. The Olson series shows a clear concentration of target initial contact scenes around the awareness space of the offender. The awareness space is inclusive of the route taken between one residence, RS in the diagram, and another residence, RC in the diagram. The route was established before the offender moved and was thus already a portion of his awareness space. The offense numbering is chronological, save for offenses #23-1'125 which occurred some time during the 20 months that this portion of the series took place. {figure 8 about here)

Commuter Series : Figure 9 is typical of the commuter series relative to the definition given in Chapter 6. The major ccmuter routes lead from the offender's activity nodes to the criminal range. Note how closely the initial contact scenes are situated to these routes. The commuter serial rapist searches for targets away from his primary activity nodes but still very near the portion of the awareness space that brings him to the initial contact scene (i-e., routine pathways). {figure 9 about here)

Organized / Hethodical Series :

Figure 10 (series 830) is an example of an organized / methodical series, relative to the definition given in Chapter

6- There is no typical example of such a series. The Oughton

series shows how dispersed the offenses were over the lower mainland (Greater Vancower ) . The numbered points are specific primary and secondary activity nodes of the offender.

Non-numbered poiats ate initial contact scene locations for each of the known serial rape incidents.

{figure 10 about here)

Forced Pa ttern Series :

Figure 11 is a hypothetical example of a forced pattern series. In this type of series the preferred victims usually occupy a specific geographicai region such as a prostitute stroll. The offender's primary activity nodes, and consequent avareness space, may be some distance from the criminal range although the offenses may actually occur near the offender's known area. In this type of series the offenses will usually occur in close proximity to one another. {figure 11 about here)

Foot Series (Marauder) :

Figure 12 (series #24) is characteristic of a specific type of foot series* The series is a sub-type of the marauder series. The offender never uses a vehicle at any time during the initial contact with the victim, at the time of the offense, or to flee the crime scene. Note the close proximity of the offenses and their subsequent relation to the offender's primary activity nodes.

{figure 12 about here)

Foot Series (Commuter):

Figure 13 (series #17) is an example of a specific type

of foot series. The series is a sub-type of the commuter

series. The offender never uses a vehicle at any time during

the initial contact with the victim, at the time of the

offense, or to flee the crime scene. There seems to be no

identifiable pattern and, as such, may not be the best example

of a commuter foot series. A true commuter foot series would be quite rare given the amount of time it takes on foot to exit the home range. In the example below the first two attacks occur far away from the offender's activity nodes,

thus displaying the attributes of a commuter series, but in

the final two cases he attacks much closer to his awareness space. Offense #3 was less than lOOm from a primary activity node.

{figure 13 about here)

Opportunist Series :

Figure 14 (series #2) displays a pattern typical of the opportunist series. This type c7- offender chooses victims who he does not know previous to the day of the offense, thus still qualifying under the definition of a stranger-stranger serial rape, but who come into his presence, usually through a mutual acquaintance or some other relationship. Note how closely the initial contact scenes are located in relation to the offender's awareness space. This type of offender will usually not travel to commit their offenses. The specific nature of this type of series usually results in the offender being apprehended very early in the series.

{figure 14 about here)

Hybrid Series:

Figure 15 (series #19) is a hybrid pattern of two other series types. As explained in Chapter 6, this series type should only be used if two or more distinct series patterns are exhibited by the offender(s) . Offenses fil-#3 occurred some time before offenses #4-#7. The first three offenses display a foot series-marauder pattern. This serial rapist attacked wosen walking alone on beaches near his awareness space or women alone in their own residences but still close to his awareness space- He never used a vehicle during these offenses. After a duration of some years the offender renewed his offense behaviour. However, his preferred victim had changed to prostitutes and his offense pattern became characteristic of the forced pattern series. One of these four offenses occurred along a prostitute stroll in Surrey directly behind a business vhere the offender had worked previous to this portion of the series. The other three victims were contacted along a well known and long established prostitute stroll in Vancouver.

{figure 15 about here)

Appendix C: Frequency Tables

Table 14 Numerical Distribution of Straight Line Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Up to 50Km by 1Km Increments

78. Q 6 Km 4 82.0 7 Km 3 85.0 Y 8 Km 3 88.0 10 Km 1 89.0 13 Km 1 90.0 17 Km 3 93.0 18 Km 1 94.0 20 Km 2 96.0 25 Kin 1 97.0 29 Km 1 98.0 36 Km I 99.0 40 Km 1 100.0 Total 100 Table 15 Numerical Distribution of Straight Line Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Up to 25b by 1Km Increments Table 16 Numerical Distribution of Straight Line Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Up to 15 Km by 0.5 Km Increments

3.0 Km 9 75.6 3.5 Km 5 81.1 4.0 Km 3 81.4 - 5.0 Km 2 86.7 5.5 Km 1 87.8 6.0 Km 3 91.1 - -- - 6.5 Km 1 92.2 7.0 Km 2 94.4 7.5 Km 1 95.6 8.0 Km 2 - 07-5 10.0 Km 1 98.9 12.5 Km 1 100.0 Total 90 Table 17 Numerical Distribution of Straight Line Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Up to 10 Km by 0.5 Km Lncremen ts Table 18 Munterical Distribution of Straight Line Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Up to 7.5 Km by 0.S Km

Cumulatfve Percent

. Total. 86 Table 19 Numerical Distribution of Straight Line Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Up to 5 Km by 0.25 Km Increments

C%maalaetve Percent Table 20 Numerical Distribution of Straight Line Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Up to 2.5 Kra by 0. I5 Km Increments

~requency I -latire percent

I Total Table 21 Numerical Distribution of Curvimeter Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Up to 50 Km by 1 Km Increments

L Distance Increment F-Y Cumulatfve Percent

1 Km 37 37.4 2 Km 15 52.5 3 Km 9 61.6 4 Km 7 68-7 5 Km 5 73.7 6 Km 4 77.8 7 Km 4 81.8 8 Km 1 82.8 9 Knl 3 85.9 10 Km 1 86.9 14 b 2 88.9 15 Kar 1 89.9 20 Km 4 93.9 22 Km 1 94.9 P- 26 Kjl 2 97.0 30 !W 1 98.0 I 37 Km 1 99.0 43 Im 1 IOG * 0 Total 99 - Table 22 Numerical Distribution of Curvimeter Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Up to 25 Km by 1 Km Increments

- I 77.7 6 Km 4 81.9 7 Krn 4 86.2 8 Km 1 87.2 9 Km 3 90.4 10 Km 1 91.5 14 Km 2 93.6 15 KQ 1 94.7 20 Km 4 98.9 22 Kln 1 100.0 Total 94 Table 23 Numerical Distribution of Curvimeter Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Up to 15 Km oy 0.5 Km Increments

Total Table 24 Numerical Distribution of Curvimeter Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of ActivTty Up to 10 Km by 0.5 Km Increments

Frequency Cumulative Percent Table 25 Numerical Distribution of Curvimeter Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Up to 7 -5 Km by 0.5 Km Increments b Distance Increment Frequency Cumulative Percent

0.5 Km 24 29.3 1.0 Km 13 45 1 1.5 Km 13 61.0 2.0 Km 2 63.4 2-5 Km 3 67.1 3.0 Km 6 74.8 - 3.5 Km 3 78.0 4.0 Km 4 82.9 4.5 Km 5 89.0 5.5 Km 2 91.5 i 6.0 Km 2 93.9 * 6.5 Kan 1 95.1 7.0 Km 3 98.8 7.5 Km 1 100.0 Total 82 Table 26 Numerical Distribution of Curvimeter Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Up to 5 Km by 0-25 Km Increments

Distaace Increment Frequency Cumulative Percent

I 4.25 Krsl 2

4-50 Km 1

Total 73 Table 27 Numerical Distribution of Curvimeter Pleasured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity Up to 2.5 Kim by 0.15 Km Increments Table 28 Numerical Distribution of Curvimeter Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity or Routine Pathway of the Offender Up to 3.5 Km by 0.15 Km Increments

-- Frequency I Cumulative Percent

ITotal Table 29 Numerical Distribution of Curvimeter Measured Distances From the Nearest Node of Activity or Routine Pathway of the Offender Up to 2-5 Km by 0.15 Km Increments