Climate-Cryosphere-Water Nexus Outlook

Vital roles of mountains, snow and glaciers

Elevation Water is held as ice that melts in summer Snow 5000 m

Water is held as snow Rain & snow that melts in spring Glacier 3000 m Permafrost

Glacial lake, Water runs off with potential for within a few days outburst flood 1000 m Mainly rain

This summary has been prepared under request of the Climate Change and Environment (CC&E) Network of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) Introduction Regional demand for water resources The three components of the cryosphere – glaciers, snow and permafrost – are all af- Fresh water was once a relatively secure re- by changing the dynamics of seasonal water fected by climate change. Mountain commu- source, but economic development and ex- distribution and availability to downstream nities face growing risks to infrastructure, panding population are resulting in growing countries (Bernauer et al. 2012, Internation- while downstream communities face disrup- demand for water resources for food and al Crisis Group 2014). More water was com- tions in their water supply and risks of food power production, and for industrial and ing to downstream areas in winter, when it and energy insecurity as a consequence. In municipal uses. The competing demands for U?QLMRPC?JJWLCCBCB?LBA?SQCBkMMBGLE  Central Asia, the cryosphere-related chang- water resources between sectors and coun- while less water was available in summer, es in water resources will be strongest in the tries are expected to grow. when agriculture needs it most. In periods of second half of the century, as glaciers shrink BPMSEFRQ  RFC U?RCP BCjAGR GL QSKKCP U?Q and the extent and duration of snow declines particularly damaging, and local people suf- considerably toward the end of the century !MMNCP?RGMLMPAMLkGAR fered losses. Recently and Tajik- (IPCC 2014). GQR?LF?TCQGEL?JCBRFCGPUGJJGLELCQQRMjLB In the Soviet era, in exchange for fossil fuel solutions to the recurring interstate water Temperature increases in Central Asia are and power supply during the winter months, disputes through dialogue, and other coun- projected to exceed the global climate policy the upstream countries of and RPGCQF?TCGLRCLQGjCB@GJ?RCP?J?LBPCEGML?J target, and combined with cryosphere-relat- – major glacial centers and key cooperation. ed changes may seriously affect water and sources of water resources for Central Asia other natural resources as well as weath- – provided the downstream countries of Ka- Glaciers of Central Asia are essentially natu- er-dependent sectors such as public health, zakhstan, and Uzbekistan with ral reservoirs that accumulate and store wa- hydropower and agriculture. The socioeco- a reliable source of water for reliable irriga- ter from winter and spring precipitation and nomic implications of the projected climate tion in the summer. release it in summer, when rainfall is low and and cryosphere changes are not well under- water demand is high. In the face of ongo- stood, but lives and livelihoods clearly hang After independence, the water-for-ener- ing climate change, the challenges related in the balance, and the region needs to gy exchange system collapsed, and the up- to water management may recur and persist. strengthen its climate and glacier monitoring stream countries changed the operations of Adaptation to the new climate and water re- and assessment and take diverse adaptation their dams to produce more hydropower in alities is central to the region’s prospects for measures to respond to the risks. winter to ensure their energy security, there- ?TMGBGLEAMLkGARQMTCPQA?PACPCQMSPACQ  Climate change in the region Temperature and precipitation

In Central Asia, temperatures have increased is most pronounced in the Tien Shan and at steadily over the last 50 years, with more pro- lower elevations of the Pamir-Alai Mountains. nounced warming over the winter months, and Many small glaciers have already disappeared. in the valleys and lowlands (Unger-Shayesteh et Central Asia glaciers al. 2013). Compared to the climatic conditions in Glacier mass balance measurements show loss- Cumulative mass balance, millimeters of water equivalent 2500 the 1950-1980 period, temperatures are project- es close to 30 per cent since the 1960s, with an 0 ed to rise by 2.5°C-6.5°C towards the end of the accelerated glacier mass loss since 2000 similar 1957 century. The exact outcome depends on the glob- to many other regions worldwide. In the Tien -5000 al greenhouse gases emission pathways, which Shan mountains, for instance, about 3000 km2 Urumqi No. 1 range from robust mitigation reducing emissions of glacier area was lost during this period. The -10000 Abramov almost to zero to a relaxed attitude leading to rap- future melting of glaciers in Central Asia will Golubin id and steady climate warming (Reyer et al. 2017). vary by altitude, but more than 50 per cent -15000 Kara-Batkak of the current glacier mass is expected to be M. Mametova Igli Tuyuksu Changes in precipitation in Central Asia vary by lost by the end of the century (Luz et al. 2013, -20000 Ts. Tuyuksu topography and locality, but the lack of consist- Sorg et al. 2014, Huss & Hock 2015). With such -25000 ent monitoring limits the analysis. Projections substantial reductions in glacier cover and ice 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017 suggest that south-west areas of the region may reserves, and changes in snow and rainfall pat- become drier, while north-east regions and the RCPL  PGTCP kMU T?PG?@GJGRW K?W GLAPC?QC ?LB neighboring western hinterlands may be- QC?QML?JU?RCPkMUK?WAF?LEC Source: World Glacier Monitoring Centre (2018) come wetter.

Glaciers, snow and Length & tongue Mass balance Number and area permafrost The changes in Elevation glaciers are 4500 Climate warming accelerates the melting of snow, glaciers and permafrost, affecting the overall wa- captured by 4000 Melt water equivalent, mm ter balance. Higher temperatures reduce snow measures of 3500 cover and depth, shorten the duration of cover, size and mass + Gain and shift the distribution of areas with permanent 0 snow and frozen soil and rocks to higher altitudes. 3000 balance. Length 50 years ago - Loss The glaciers in Central Asia are retreating at 0 510km present time different rates in different areas. The shrinkage Water availability

Glaciers and seasonal snow pack of the Tien Shan and Pamir mountains provide about half of the Accelerating Peak water Most glaciers QRPC?K kMU RM RFC KS "?PW? ?LB 1WP "?PW? Water flow glacial melt from glaciers vanish rivers, and the year-to-year amount of fresh water +1° +2° may vary with climatic conditions. The volume, increases with +6° depth and extent of snow determines the timing glacial melting, MDRFCQLMUKCJRAMLRPG@SRGMLRMPGTCPkMU  then declines As the climate warms and the glaciers shrink, when the +50% +50% annual run-off, and especially the glacial melt floods AMLRPG@SRGMLRMRFCPGTCPkMU UGJJGLGRG?JJWGL glaciers Less reliable water supply summer flow in summer crease, then peak and subsequently decline. are gone. Increased water evaporation from soils and plants in a warmer climate will exacerbate this present time next 20-30 years (2050) end of century (2100) decline. Widespread permafrost thawing and the appearance of glacier lakes increase the risk of rock instability and failure, and present threats to downstream communities and crit- ical infrastructure, such as roads and mines. Sound water resources planning and effective With glacier Without glacier More pronounced risk management will depend on an under- water fluctuations standing and consideration of these dynamics. As glaciers Central Asia run-off projections until about retreat, 2030 show no major expected changes, but the water flow Years a number of studies agree that changes in glacier and snow melt will result in a shift of peak shifts Summer Spring Seasonal shift in flow peak flow peak water availability seasonal water peak from summer to spring, from summer to with locally different peaks for individual catchments. The annual peak water is expect- spring. ed around 2050, and by the end of the cen- tury, run-off is likely to decline in all Central JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND Asia river basins (Sorg et al. 2014, Reyer et al. 2017, Huss & Hock 2018). Floods, flash floods Slope instability Downstream water shortages and inundations and slides and diminished water quality The changes in the mountains carry risks all the way to the lowlands.

Overall, Central Asia is considered a global While in-depth understanding of the socio- climate and the cryosphere (Unger-Shayesteh hotspot region with respect to impacts of economic impacts of climate and cryosphere et al. 2013). Without a strong data basis, fu- climate change on the mountain cryosphere changes is still incomplete and should be ad- ture trends that might support decision-mak- and downstream societies, most notably for dressed in the region, the direction of chang- GLEUGJJ@CBGDjASJRRM?QQCQQ  ARGMLQ?PC@C water resources and risks from natural haz- es is robust. Flexibility in river basin manage- GLE SLBCPR?ICL RM DSJjJJ RFC M@QCPT?RGML?J ards. While cryosphere related changes in ment plans with consideration of climate gaps of the last 30 years and to support new water resources will be less strong in the impacts and risk reduction measures become generations of hydrometeorologists, climate next one to two decades, major changes are very important. Intensifying local adap ta tion and glacier scientists and water planners (Ho- expected later in the century as glaciers be- efforts will be a key to avoiding climate risks elzle et al. 2017). The international commu- come increasingly smaller and snow extent that go beyond critical levels, as will the co- nity is working together with national and and duration decrease. A particular concern ordination of cross-border adaptation efforts. regional institutions and research centers to is the combination of the cryosphere-related reestablish and modernize glacier and hydro- changes with higher frequency of droughts 1AGCLRGjACTGBCLACDMPRFCPCEGMLAMKCQUGRF meteorology observation networks and build in some regions of Central Asia and a wide- considerable uncertainties due to a lack of local capacity. Broader support and informa- spread increase of extremely hot periods. long-term, uninterrupted monitoring of the tion exchange is needed. Glacial source / source River mainly fed by glacial Climate change impacts on glaciers and water Major river systems Rivers of Central Asia Town or city and snow melt Glacial lake outburst flood risk, changes Ili Glaciers and water sources Major city River mainly fed by snow and rain in rock and slope stability Lake Canal Collector Chu Water deficit risk Reservoir Inland river delta Tarim Talas

Northern Aral Sea Lake Balkhash

Southern Aral Sea KAZAKHS TAN

ILI Yining KUNES Kyzylorda Former shoreline Kapchagay of Aral Sea SYR DARYA Shu CHU Almaty TEKES TALAS Tokmok Taraz Bishkek Issyk-Kul Nukus KYR TARIM Talas AKSU UZBEKIS TAN Toktogul PSKEM Charvak NARYN Aksu Naryn CHATKAL CHIRCIQ Namangan Golden Age Lake AMU DARYA Dashoguz Chardara Ferghana Valley KARA-DARYA DARYALYK-COLLECTOR Aydar Lake TOSHKAN Chinoz Kayrakkum Kujand Osh Navoiy SOKH Margilan Bereket T URKMENIS TAN ZARAVSHAN KASHGAR Turkmenabat KYZYL-SUU CHINA GREAT TURKMEN COLLECTOR Garm Yarkant MUKSU MURGHAB VAKHSHTJK AKSU Karshi KASHKADARYA BARTANG Murghab YARKANT KARAKUM CANAL Lake Sarez Ashgabad Mary KARSHI CAN. Nurek Hotan Qurghon- Korug teppa YURUNGKASH Atamyrat SURKHANDARYATermiz Feyzabad KAFARNIGAN WAKHAN Tejen KOKCHA PANJ Kunduz MURGAB KARAKASH TEJEN P AKIS TAN IRAN Murgab KUNDUZ

Herat A FGHANIS TAN I NDIA

HARIRUD Map produced by Zoï Environment Network, June 2018 Aralsk Northern Lake Balkhash Aral Sea Ili delta 4 (38) 5 Eastern Ili Aral Sea CHN 4 Western Khorgos Aral Sea

Aral Kum Desert KAZ 1.3 16 12 Kapchagay Res. KAZ 2.2 Chu Almaty KAZ (other rivers) 1.5 Muynak KAZ 0.6 KAZ 10 Talas Sy r Da 4.8 rya KYR 3.3 Karakalpakstan 7.9 Taraz Bishkek Issyk-Kul 1.5 Akshirak Enilchek Sarygamysh Lake 1 Prospective Shymkent KYR 0.9 Tien-Shan Collector KYRGYZSTAN Chirchik- Naryn Aksu a Charvak Aksu z G o Ahangaran l Tashauz 6.5 Tashkent 15 Horezm 4.4 UZBEKISTAN 9 UZB 10 KYR 3 (UZB) (37) Kara Darya Golden Age Lake Dashoguz Collector 4 CHINA UZB 5.3 TJK 2 t (under construction) Aydar Lake 1 Osh an Lebap 3.9 2 Rivers of ark Ferghana Valley: 8 Kashgar Y Zarav UZB 10 s Kashgar Bukhara han TURKMENISTAN Samarkand KYR 0.1 5.3 Fedchenko Amu-Bukhara 5.2 Kafarnigan Central Asia Kashkadarya 0.3 Great Turkmen Collector 1.2 Vaksh Water resource formation and use Dushanbe TAJIKISTAN Surhandarya Pamir TJK 6.6 Average water withdrawal Ashgabat Karshi 4.2 UZB Panj High water losses along Sherabad 1.4 0.6 1.5 (km3/year) Karakum Canal 1.5 Amu Darya Average flow 0.5 70 0.2 4.8 20 (km3/year) 30 akash At 0.98 5.5 Ya Kar rek Karakum Canal 11 rk 10 ant 5 Mur 33

g Mountain regions above 2000 metres a Other rivers: 6.2

b

Kokcha Irrigated lands

T Mashad e

j en Drainage water and irrigation run-off Indus IRAN Re-use of drainage PAKISTAN Main glacier areas Kunduz River basin outline Srinagar Kabul Country boundary Hari Rud 0 250 km Islamabad Map produced by Zoï Environment Network, June 2018 Source: water flow and water use data www.cawater-info.net Climate change impacts on References 1. Bernauer T, Siegfried T (2012) Climate Central Asia high mountains AF?LEC ?LB GLRCPL?RGML?J U?RCP AMLkGAR GL Minimal ice reserves Central Asia. J Peace Res 49:227–239. doi: in the mountains No reliable water source 10.1177/0022343311425843 in summer Uncertain future Elevation 2. Hoelzle M, Azisov E, Barandun M, et al. (2017) of precipitation 5000 m Re-establishing glacier monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Central Asia. Geosci Instru- mentation, Methods Data Syst 6:397–418. doi: Warmer climate at higher elevations 10.5194/gi-6-397-2017 causing more rain instead of snow 3000 m 3. Huss M, Hock R (2015) A new model for global Ecological changes glacier change and sea-level rise. Front Earth Sci by elevation and season 3:54. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2015.00054 Intense rains and droughts 4. Huss M, Hock R (2018) Global-scale hydrolo- 1000 m gical response to future glacier mass loss. Nat Clim Chang 8:135–140. doi: 10.1038/s41558-017- 0049-x

5. International Crisis Group (2014) Water Pressures in Central Asia. 40.

6. Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW, Gobiet A, Pellicciotti F, Bierkens MFP (2013) Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17:3661–3677. doi:10. 5194/hess-17-3661-2013.

7. Reyer CPO, Otto IM, Adams S, et al. (2017) Cli- mate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development. Reg Environ Chang 17:1639–1650. doi: 10.1007/s10113-015- Changes in water availability Damage to 0893-z in drylands and lowlands Shift in water supply Compromised More glacial lakes, critical infrastructure for irrigation slope stability increased risk of 8. Sorg A, Huss M, Rohrer M, Stoffel M (2014) The outburst floods days of plenty might soon be over in glacierized Central Asian catchments. Environ Res Lett. doi: Contributors 10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104018

Veruska Muccione (University of Zurich), 9. Unger-Shayesteh K, Vorogushyn S, Farinotti D, et Christian Huggel (University of Zurich), al. (2013) What do we know about past changes Nadine Salzmann (University of Zurich and University of Fribourg), in the water cycle of Central Asian headwaters? Joel Fiddes (University of Oslo and Swiss Institute for Snow and Avalanche research SLF), A review. Glob Planet Change 110:4–25. doi: Samuel Nussbaumer (University of Zurich & University of Fribourg), 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.02.004. Viktor Novikov, Geoff Hughes (Zoï Environment Network) 10. WGMS 2017. Global Glacier Change Bulletin No. 2 (2014–2015). [Zemp M, Nussbaumer S U, Gärtner- Visuals Roer I, Huber J, Machguth H, Paul F, Hoelzle M. (eds.)], ICSU(WDS)/IUGG(IACS)/UNEP/ UNESCO/ Carolyne Daniel WMO, World Glacier Monitoring Service, Zurich, Matthias Beilstein Switzerland, 244 pp.