Tajikistan Climate Facts and Policy Policies and Processes

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TAJIKISTAN CLIMATE FACTS AND POLICY POLICIES AND PROCESSES

8 MILLION tCO2e Policy framework National climate change action plan (2003, requires update) 1 TONNE PER CAPITA National climate change and health strategy (2011) National adaptation strategy 2016-2030 (under development) National strategies and programmes on glaciers, energy efficiency, small-scale hydropower, disaster risk reduction, forests Participant of the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience since 2009 Limited consideration of climate change concerns in legislation and sub-laws 2020 targets NAMAs on energy and forestry 2030 targets and INDC Mitigation Base year and GHG emissions level: 1990, 25.5 million tonnes Unconditional target 2030: not to exceed 80-90 per cent of 1990 level, 1.7-2.2 tonnes CO2-eqv per capita Conditional target 2030: not to exceed 65-75 per cent of 1990 level, 1.2-1.7 tonnes CO2-eqv per capita

8.3 1,114 Adaptation priorities MILLION US $ POPULATION PER CAPITA Agriculture, irrigation and water systems 38% GDP Power engineering and industrial facilities OF TOTAL ENERGY Transport and residential infrastructure CONSUMPTION FROM Economy-wide climate resilience and disaster risk reduction FOSSIL FUELS Adaptation of globally significant biodiversity to climate change Monitoring and conservation of glaciers and water resources Occupational safety, maternity and childhood protection in a warming climate Sources: latest national GHG inventory data (2010-2014) or estimates based on INDCs (2014-2015); population, energy and GHG inventory and projections economic data (2012-2014) from the World Historical time series (1990-2010) and projections in the third national communication to UNFCCC Development Indicators of the World Bank GHG emissions from coal power, cement production and agriculture expected to grow http://data.worldbank.org/indicator No advanced MRV and GHG scenario modelling established yet CLIMATE ACTIONS Low GHG emissions 1 tonne CO2-eqv per person, total 2010 emissions (8 million tonnes): one third of the 1990 level Strong decline in the energy-use sector, growth in the share of non-CO2 emissions Plans for large and small hydropower and coal-power development Significant role of land use and forests in GHG balance Considerable action on adaptation at various levels Major international investments to agriculture and hydropower climate resiliency and disaster risk reduction Local adaptation actions, climate-proofing of the new infrastructure built with international donor support Regional actions Contributor to the Aral Sea Basin Program Promoter of global and regional freshwater initiatives Environment, climate change and hydrology cooperation with Afghanistan CLIMATE FINANCE Limited national resources Sufficient for soft measures (legal, institutional) but inadequate for tangible action Significant role of international climate investments About US $150-200 million in loans and grants for climate-relevant actions EBRD and EIB funding Kairakkum hydropower station rehabilitation and climate-proofing Solid waste management in the main cities of Tajikistan Public transport and improved water supply Rehabilitation of power network Global Environment Facility Sustainable urban transport, development of small-scale hydropower, sustainable watershed management and agro-biodiversity adaptation to climate change (UNDP, World Bank) Other sources and channels Climate Investments Funds, World Bank, ADB, bilateral (Germany, Finland, Switzerland) KAZAKHSTAN Tashkent Shardara Jalal-Abad Shardara Res. Angren Namangan Chatyr-Kol Andĳan KAZAKHSTAN AlmaliqTashkent Ferghana Valley a Shardara ry Da Marghilan OshJalal-Abad S r Kokand Shardara Res. y Angren y Aydar Lake r S Namangan Chatyr-Kol D a Kayrakum Res. r Andĳan y Ferghana a Almaliq Khujand Ferghana Valley UZBEKISTAN a Isfarary KYRGYZSTAN Da UZB Marghilan Osh S r Kokand Wuqia y y UZB shga Aydar LakeJizzax r S Ka r D Batken Sary-Tash a Kayrakum Res. r Istaravshan y Ferghana a IsfanaKhujand TJK Suu UZBEKISTAN KYRGYZSTANKyzyl- Isfara UZB Wuqia Jizzax UZB Kashgar Batken Sary-Tash Istaravshan Ayni Isfana su uu CHINA Panjakent Zaravshan TJK hob Muk yzyl-S Surk K Garm Karakul Ayni Dushanbe u Panjakent Zaravshan Kh ob Muks CHINA ingo urkh Yavan Rogun b S Dushanbe Garm Qala-i Khumb Karakul Vahdat Lake Sarez Murghab Dushanbe Murghab Nurek Res. K j A hin n h q Denov go a s Yavans b u h Rogun P Pamir k g a Danghara n Dushanbe V Qala-i Khumb rta Ba Lake Sarez Murghab Vahdat Kulob Gunt u Yashil-Kul Murghab Nurekls Res. j A h i n q a Denov iz a s y s K u r h P Pamir a Qurghonteppak g d a Danghara n n K V ta ir a o r m h f a a KhorogB a k Kulob t P r r un n G u

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o u Yashil-Kul n ils Kokcha Wakhan a iz y K Termizr Feyzabad nj a Qurghonteppa Pa d n K ir a A o m h f m a Khorog a k P r u r u D n i S a h ry o a n K AFGHANISTANKokch akhan u a PAKISTANW Termiz n j l du K Feyzabad an ra z h P it 0 100 km Mazar-e Sharif an h A Kunduz ab C m ad u Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, November 2015 Da ry a K AFGHANISTAN u PAKISTAN n l du K ra z h it 0 100 km Fossil fuelMazar-e energy Sharif installations and carbon emissionsan Renewable energy installationsh and plans Kunduz abad C Energy and emissions Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, November 2015 CO2 emissions from thermal power plants, million tons per year: Wind park Solar park Hydropower plant Fossil fuel energy installations and carbon emissions Renewable energy installations and plans 0.5 - 1 Thermal power-plant (coal/oil/gas) Installed capacity: less than 0.5 CO2 emissions from thermal power plants, million tons per year: Wind park Solar park Hydropower plant Less than 50 MW

0.5 - 1 Thermal power-plant (coal/oil/gas) Installed capacity: less than 0.5 Less than 50 MW

Policies and institutions

Tajikistan has not yet developed comprehensive legislation on As a landlocked and impoverished mountain country acting as a climate protection and in general climate is not yet reflected water tower and possessing large potential hydropower resources, in environmental, air pollution or energy laws. The country is Tajikistan shares interests with similar mountain countries, especially nevertheless one of the regional pioneers in adaptation planning, its closest neighbours - Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan - and sees itself and has produced a national climate change action plan (2003) as part of an interest group with respect to international climate change and a national climate and health strategy (2011). Currently, processes. The promotion of a global fund for the preservation of a national climate adaptation strategy is in the final stages of glaciers is one particular high-level interest in the country. development. The country is implementing diverse project-based climate actions at various levels with donor support, focusing on The leading authorities with climate decision-making responsibilities climate resiliency. include the Executive Office of the President (responsible for monitoring, coordination and supervision of line ministries), the Tajikistan consistently expresses the importance of hydropower Committee for Environmental Protection (focal point to GEF and and energy security and the need to overcome an energy crisis GCF) and its Agency on Hydrometeorology (focal point to the in its public statements, including at the United Nations Climate UNFCCC). The Ministry of Energy and Water Resources is one of Summits in September 2014 and September 2015. In order the key players in climate investments. NGOs are active promoters to respond more effectively to the energy crisis, UNDP has of innovations and international developments in domestic climate established information and an institutional system of energy actions and policy though the climate change network - TajCCN. They crisis early warning. often work on practical local activities, education and awareness. KAZAKHSTAN Tashkent Shardara Shardara Res. Jalal-Abad Angren Namangan Chatyr-Kol KAZAKHSTAN Andĳan AlmaliqTashkent Ferghana Valley Shardara Shardara Res. a ry Jalal-Abad Da Kokand Marghilan Osh S Angren r Namangan Chatyr-Kol y y Aydar Lake r S D a Kayrakum Res. Andĳan r y Almaliq Ferghana a Khujand Ferghana Valley ya UZBEKISTAN ar KYRGYZSTAN Isfara D Kokand Marghilan Osh S yr Aydar Lake y S UZB Wuqia r UZB shg Jizzax D Ka ar a Kayrakum Res. r Batken Sary-Tash yIstaravshan Ferghana a IsfanaKhujand UZBEKISTAN uu TJK KYRGYZSTANyzyl-S Isfara UZB K Wuqia Jizzax UZB Kashgar Batken Sary-Tash Istaravshan Ayni Isfana uu TJK su yzyl-S Karakul CHINA Panjakent Zaravshan hob Muk K Surk Zaravshan Garm Ayni su Karakul CHINA Panjakent Zaravshan hob Muk Khin Surk Zaravshan gob Dushanbe Rogun Garm Pamir Qala-i Khumb M Vahdat Lake Sarez urghab Khi Murghab ng j A Nurek Res. ob n q Denov a Pamir s Rogun P u Dushanbe h g s Qala-i Khumb n h a M k rt Lake Sarez urgh a Vahdat a ab V Danghara Kulob B Gunt Murghab j A Nureku Res. n Yashil-Kul q Denov ils a s a iz P u y h K g r s n a Qurghonteppah a d k t K r n a a a o Southern V Danghara Kulob B h f nt ir a Khorog k Gu m r r a n P u i Tajikistan Yashil-Kul S h su o il a n iz Kokch khan y K a Wa A Termizr m a Qurghonteppa Feyzabad nj d a u K P D n a a o Southern r h f ir y a Khorog a k m r r a n P u

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o n AFGHANISTANKokcha Wakhan Am Termiz Feyzabad nj PAKISTAN u K K Pa l D u h ra ar n a it 0 100 km yMazar-ea Sharif d n h u Kunduz ab C z ad Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, November 2015 AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN K K l u h ra n a it 0 100 km Mazar-eProjected Sharif shifts in seasonal hydrologyd and growing n Environmentally sensitive and stressedh regions u Kunduz ab C z ad Impactsuncertainties of of water climate availability change Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, November 2015 Severe drought impacts ProjectedAreas most shifts exposed in seasonal to weather hydrology and climate and growing risks Environmentally sensitive and stressed regions uncertainties of water availability Reduction of ice cover Severe drought impacts Areas most exposed to weather and climate risks Reduction of ice cover

Tajikistan scorecard

Country’s share of global emissions National climate policy actors Country’s emissions per capita General climate action ambition Policy leadership: Executive Office of the President, Committee for Environmental Protection Mitigation commitment: Emissions reduction UNFCCC focal point: Agency on Hydrometeorology Decoupling from population growth GHG inventory: Project based, Climate Change Centre Decoupling from economic growth GCF focal point: Committee for Environmental Protection Renewable energy

Adaptation action Greenhouse gas emissions and projections for Tajikistan Million tonnes 30

80-90% 20 65-75%

0 Projections -2.5 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2020 2030

Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Waste Land use change and forestry Lower range Higher range

Climate actions Climate finance

Hydropower accounts for more than 95 per cent of the electricity As a result of its high vulnerability to climate change and its low generated in the country, which in combination with a low fossil fuel adaptive capacity, Tajikistan was invited to participate in the Pilot use makes Tajikistan a low-emission leader of Central Asia. Over Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR). The budget of PPCR and the last decade, GHG emissions remained stable, but are expected other climate projects in Tajikistan grew to an estimated US $150 to increase in the current decade. Recommendations and a scope million in loans and grants, and funded activities in hydropower, for mitigation and adaptation activities are reflected in the national agriculture, watershed management and other sectors. climate change action plan (2003). Climate-related funding from the Global Environmental Facility According to the most recent inventory of GHG emissions (2004- (GEF) has supported preparation of the national communications 2010), the level of absolute and per capita emissions in Tajikistan to UNFCCC, sustainable urban transport, development of small- remains the lowest in Central Asia (about 1 tonne CO2-eqv per scale hydropower, sustainable watershed management and agro- person). The current level of emissions as compared to 1990 (25 biodiversity adaptation. Climate actions in agriculture that qualify million tonnes of CO2-eqv) has declined by two thirds (to 8 million under the climate mechanisms could have a major development tonnes of CO2-eqv), due to the collapse of the former Soviet Union impact in the country. economy and to structural changes resulting from the transition to a market economy and independence. The most dramatic decline in Cooperation with the EU is an important priority for Tajikistan. GHG emissions occurred in the energy sector - a staggering reduction Regional programmes such as INOGATE, CASEP and of more than 80 per cent - but not without socioeconomic and FLERMONECA cover climate, forest and energy issues. environmental consequences: high reliance on imported fossil fuels and their unsecure supply creates major difficulties for businesses and The EBRD has diverse portfolio of projects in Tajikistan with a the population at large. Coal mining and use, negligible in Tajikistan value of US $350 million. Ongoing EBRD projects include solid for 20 years, is starting to grow in the residential, industrial and power waste management in the main cities, the Kairakkum hydropower sectors with current levels estimated at 0.5 million tonnes/year. plant rehabilitation, public transport and water supply.

Tajikistan’s emissions profile differs from other Central Asian countries. In 1990, the energy sector dominated GHG emissions Sources of information for the scorecard (almost 70 per cent of the total). From the late 1990s to the present, agriculture has been the main source of GHG emissions (60 per Tajikistan’s strategies and legislation cent). Road transport is extensively using a low-emission fuel (more that 50 per cent of cars are run on natural gas). National climate-related assessments and reports: National climate change action plan (2003), the third national communication to UNFCCC While Tajikistan has only 3 per cent forest cover, forests and (2014), climate change and security national stakeholder consultations grasslands play a significant role in the regulation of climate and the (2014), INDC (2015) reduction of extreme event impacts. Publications and information materials of Tajikistan’s Agency on Hy- dro-meteorology, Tajik PPCR Secretariat, World Bank, CIFs, EBRD, Despite the country’s efforts to ensure a reliable emissions inventory, UNECE calculations vary from sector to sector, and the available statistical data are not comprehensive. Zoï expertise and interviews with stakeholders in Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s INDC sets a 2030 target of a reduction to 80 - 90 per cent This publication has been pro- of 1990 emissions levels without external assistance, and a reduction duced with the assistance of the to 65 - 75 per cent subject to substantial international funding. On the European Union. The contents adaption side, the INDC outlines an ambitious set of initiatives the of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and country is pursuing, but reports that national funding is insufficient to can in no way be taken to reflect implement all the programmes. the views of the European Union.