LHA Working Paper Series No. LHA20201003
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Learning from High Frequency Transaction Data
Haiqiang Chen Wenlan Qian Qiang Wen
Luohan Academy Z Space, No. 556 Xixi Road Hangzhou, China May 2020
LHA Working Papers are written by members of Luohan Academy, by scholars associated with the Academy, and from time to time by other researchers, and are published by Luohan Academy. These papers focus on, but are not limited to research on various aspects of our economy and society in the digital age, following a new wave of technological innovations. The views expressed in them are those of the authors and they should not be reported as representing or considered as reflecting the views of Luohan Academy or the Alibaba Group. This publication is available on the Luohan Academy website.
2020 by Haiqiang Chen, Wenlan Qian, Qiang Wen. All rights reserved. Short excerpts of the text, not exceeding two paragraphs, may be quoted, reproduced or translated provided that full credit is given to the original source.
LHA Working Paper Series No. LHA20201003
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Learning from High Frequency Transaction Data Haiqiang Chen, Wenlan Qian, Qiang Wen LHA Working Paper No.LHA20201003 May 2020
ABSTRACT We use daily transaction data in 214 cities to study the impact of COVID-19 on cons mption after China s o tbreak in late Jan ar 2020. Based on difference-in- differences estimation, daily offline consumption via bank card and mobile QR code transactions fell by 32%, or 18.57 million RMB per city, during the twelve- week period. Spending on goods and services were both significantly affected, with a decline of 33% and 34%, respectively; within finer categories, dining & entertainment and travel saw the greatest dip of 64% and 59%. The consumption decrease is prevalent across cities with the largest drop occurring in the epicenter Wuhan (by 70%). Consumption responded negatively to the day-to-day changes in epidemic severity while distancing measures remained stable. Consumption had rebounded back to the baseline level by the end of March but dropped to - 20% in early April due to the elevated risk of a second wave of infections. We infer that China s offline cons mption decreased b o er 1.22 trillion RMB in the three- month post-o tbreak period, or 1.2% of China s 2019 GDP. Our estimates suggest a significant economic benefit of containing the virus through a lessened consumption decrease and a faster consumption recovery.
JEL classification: E21, E62, E61 Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, pandemic, consumption, economic impact, policy response, fiscal stimulus, transaction data
Haiqiang Chen: Wang Yanan Institute for studies in Economics, Department of Finance, School of Economics, Xiamen University, [email protected]
Wenlan Qian (corresponding author): Department of Finance, NUS Business School, National University of Singapore. ABFER and Fellow of Luohan Academy. [email protected]
Qiang Wen: Wang Yanan Institute for studies in Economics, School of Economics, Xiamen University, [email protected]
LHA Working Paper Series No. LHA20201003
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We benefit from valuable comments by Sumit Agarwal, Steve Davis, Hanming Fang, Zhiguo He, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Albert Park, Yu Qin, Zheng (Michael) Song, Johan Sulaeman, Dragon Tang, Jian Wang, Pengfei Wang, Liyan Yang, Bernie Yeung, Feng Zhu, Haibin Zhu, and participants at BFI-China seminar, University of Chicago and VoxChina Covid-19 Forum. We also thank China UMS for its generous help in providing the transaction data and Muqing Song, Linyu Li for the excellent research assistance. Chen acknowledges the financial support from National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants (#71850011, #71571152). Qian acknowledged the financial support from MOE Tier 2 Grant (R- 315-000-129-112).
This paper can be downloaded without charge. Information on all of the papers published in the Luohan Academy Working Paper Series can be found on Luohan Academy s ebsite (https://www.luohanacademy.com/).
LHA Working Paper Series No. LHA20201003
1. In od c ion
O Ma ch 11, 2020, he W d Hea h O ga i a i a ced COVID-19 b ea a a de ic. B a e-A i 2020, COVID-19 had i fec ed e ha 2.88 i i e e d ide i 210 c ie , i h e 198,000 dea h . C ie a d he g be ha e i c ea i g i e e ed ic b ic hea h ea e e d he b ea . The e ea e a ge f cia di a ci g a c e e c d , i a iab c ai i g ec ic ac i i ie i h e i a ifica i . Ma g e e ha e ed giga ic fi ca i ac age , a a ge a e 10% f he c GDP, he c ba he ega i e ec ic c e e ce f COVID- 19. Ne ac age i i e be added a e de e f he i he a de ic.
A g i g ic deba e ce e fi di g ade a e ea e ha ba a ce b ic hea h eff c ai he c a i ead i h c ide a i e a i e he ec ic i ac . P b ic hea h ea e ha e f ce ic di a ci g a d bi i e ic i i c a ig ifica c he ec . A a ec ic e i fi i edia e ca hf e e f he dde ha i ec ic ac i i ie , eadi g a i e e e a d b i e h d ha feed bac i agg ega e de a d. H e e , d a i g b ic hea h i e e i a ca ie e i ec ic c e e ce . K edge i i c c i e c ce i g he a i i de, a e f ead, a d e ha i , a d effec i e edica c e f he e c a i e i , a i g ec i g he c e f he a de ic diffic . The h ge ce ai di ec h c e i i g e c e he he fee afe a d a i , e e i h i i e h ea f ec ic ec i . The ed c i i c e de a d a a di ec e f he a de ic i he ef e c ea e a i i g effec he ac ec . C e e , a ged a de ic b ea i ea e de a d a d de a ec ic ec e . S ch i icacie add he cha e ge f ic e e , c ded b he ac f a g d de a di g f he ag i de a d ce f he b e d e he ecede ed a e f he c i i i he a ce .
Thi a e ide di ec e ide ce he i edia e ec ic i ac f COVID-19, d a i g Chi a e e ie ce da e. Chi a ffe a g d e i g a e he ec ic i ac f COVID-19. I a he fi c e e ie ce a a ge- ca e b ea , a i g i Ja a 2020, hich e de a fficie g - b ea e i d a d h a i ica e f b ai c edib e e i a i . B id-A i , Chi a had e ed 82,341 COVID-19 ca e i h 3,342 dea h . Sig ifica ge g a hic a ia i e i i he e ide ic e e ac ci ie : he e ice e ci ,
1 W ha , acc f 61% f he a e ed ca e , he ea 33 ci ie had e ed 0 ca e b he id f A i . The Chi e e g e e i e e ed d ac ia ea e c ai he ead, i c di g c i g d W ha Ja 23, 2020. O he ci ie a ed ic ea e di a ce he a i , a d ace a d i a e ec ed COVID-19 a ie a e a c i g - e e ia e ice b i e e , hich he i fec ed c ie egi b e e ad ed a a i g deg ee. M e e , Chi a e ed e ca i fec i Ma ch 19 a d g ad a e a ed he c d a d bi i e ic i ea e i ce a e Feb a . Thi a ide a i d he a h f ec ic ec e , b h d i g a d af e i ge b ic hea h ea e e f ce e .
We f c he i ac f COVID-19 c i , hich acc f e 42% f Chi a GDP i he a decade ( ce: Pe e Ba f Chi a, Na i a B ea f S a i ic ). We gai acce he i e e f c e e di g a ac i a ff i e e cha i g ba ca d a d bi e QR c de (i.e., i ed e- a e i A i a a d Wecha a ), ca ed b U i Pa POS achi e a d QR ca e . U i Pa i he e f Chi a a ge a e e ice ide f ff i e e di g e i g e 1 bi i e e i he c ( ce: Pe e Ba f Chi a). I 2019, he a ff i e c e e di g ec ded b U i Pa c e 30% f Chi a a e ai c i ff i e ( ce: Chi a UMS a d Na i a B ea f S a i ic ). Whi e E- C e ce ha e e ie ced acce e a i g g h i ece ea , ff i e c i i c i e 76% f Chi a e a e ai c i ( ce: Na i a B ea f S a i ic ). I addi i , i h b ic -a d- a e ai e a a e e i he ec , d i g ff i e c i ide a ha e a e e f he ec ic i ac f COVID-19.
We c ec dai ff i e c i a he ci e e f Ja a 1 A i 14 2020 f 214 efec e- e e ci ie , hich c e 92% f Chi a 2018 GDP a d 90% f he c ba a i . I addi i a e di g, e b e e c i b e (g d . e ice ) a d b ca eg (dai ece i ie , d ab e g d , di c e i a g d , di i g & e e ai e , a e - e a ed, a d he ). F he e i ica a a i , e e he W ha c d da e (Ja a 23, 2020) a he a f he b ea a d c a e he c i bef e a d af e . T ca e he c e fac a c i a e , e e he a e e i d da a i 2019 a he be ch a g . I ead f i g he a e ca e da da e di ide he 2019 a e, e e he a ca e da defi e he e e da e acc f he ea a a ia i i c i e a ed he CNY
2 e i d. Ja a 23, 2020 a he da bef e CNY e e, a d h e e he c e di g a ca e da da e i 2019 a he c ff defi e he bef e a d af e e i d. I he diffe e ce-i - diffe e ce eg e i , e i c de ci , e e -da , a d da - f- ee fi ed effec ab b b e ed ci a d i e he e ge ei .
O b ec i e i -f d. The fi i e he a ac i -ba ed c i ea e d c e a d a if he i edia e i ac f COVID-19 agg ega e c i . H a ge i he c i dec ea e? F ha e a d ca eg ie f c i d e b e e he g ea e effec ? H e i e i he i ac a d h did he ec e a ? The ec d g a i i e iga e he a e f he c i i ac ac ace a d e i e i e a i he cc e ce a d e e i f he e ide ic b ea . We e i he da a high f e e c a d a ge c ec i de ec he c i e e da - -da cha ge i he e ide ic de e e , he ea ac ec ic c di i a d di a ci g ea e a ied a a ( ch) e f e e c . Th , e ca ea ab he di ec effec f he e ide ic e e i c i .
Af e he c a i b ea , Chi a c i a e e e hi . L i g a he a c i da a, he a e age diffe e ce i a ff i e c i f he 214 ci ie i a e i 8.06 bi i RMB e da i 2020 af e he b ea . H e e , a f he dec ea e a ca e he ea a a ia i i e di g d i g he CNY e i d. We e he diffe e ce-i -diffe e ce eg e i e i a e he cha ge i c i e a i e he c e fac a cha ge i e di g ba ed 2019 da a. The eg e i e gge ci ie i e ed a dec i e i hei ff i e c i b 18.57 i i RMB e da , a e age, 32% i e ce age e . Thi fi di g a a e i a a dec ea e f 329.84 bi i RMB i he e e- ee - b ea e i d.
If he ff i e c i e e ie ced a i i a a e f dec ea e, a d i g he fac ha U i Pa ca e 30% f Chi a ff i e c i a d ha a e c e 90% f he ba a i , e i fe a a dec ea e i Chi a ff i e c i f 14.72 bi i RMB e da , 1.22 i i RMB d i g he e e- ee - b ea e i d. A a efe e ce, he c a GDP i 2019 a 99.10 i i RMB. N e he be i e e e e a e - b d e i a e, beca e c i i g ca h e ab c d be e e e e affec ed. We a ide a e i a e f he i e- e di g e e he COVID-19 b ea be -13%. Gi e he 76% ha e f ff i e c i i Chi a, e i fe he a c i i Chi a
3 dec i ed 27% e e ee af e he b ea .
S e di g g d a d e ice e e b h ig ifica affec ed, i h a dec i e f 33% a d 34%, e ec i e . Wi hi g d , d ab e e di g fe he b 35% f ed b di c e i a i e (e.g., a a e a d h e ) i h a dec ea e f 29%. Rega di g e ice , di i g & e e ai e a d a e - e a ed e di g e e ie ced ig ifica dec ea e f 64% a d 59%, e ec i e . Thei a ge dec ea e a e i e e a ed he i e e i ea e i ace, hich i ed bi i e ic i a d c ed -e e ia e ice .
We b e e a e a e c i dec ea e ac he 214 ci ie i a e: he edia ci e e ie ced a dec ea e f 33% i h e 90% f he 214 ci ie a a c i dec ea e f e ha 20%. N ab , he c i effec i ge i e-e ed ci ie (af e c i g f ci i e a d de e de ce e ice a d e i d ie ). The e ice e ci , W ha , i e ed a 70% dec ea e i i ff i e c i d i g he e e- ee - b ea e i d. We a d he effec f he 20 ci ie ha ecei ed he highe i f f W ha e ide d i g he - ee e i d bef e he b ea . The e ci ie e e a a highe i f i i g ca e a d eadi g he di ea e; acc di g , ff i e c i dec ea ed b 11% e i he e e-e ed ci ie ha he e f he ci ie i a e. F he ci ie e i g 0 ca e (a f id-A i ), he dec ea e i ff i e c i a 12% e ha ci ie i h i i e COVID-19 ca e i he a e i e i d . Ge g a hica , i g hea a , e h he g ea e c i dec i e a c ce a ed i ci ie c e W ha a d a fe he ci ie , hich a had e COVID-19 ca e .
The c - ec i a fi di g e ea a c e i g a e be ee e ide ic e e i a d cha ge i ci c i . I i i e a ib ab e he c e e ce f he di a ci g a d bi i - e ic i ea e , ei he b h ica c ai i g e e h i g i ie h gh affec i g i c e a d b ec i . I addi i , he e ide ic di ea e ca i d ce ce ai a d a ie a d cha ge c e i i g e e d, ab e bi i e ic i a d f h e i h i i e i c e c ce . T e igh e he a e cha e , e e e age he high f e e c da a e a i e h dai c i i each ci e ded he e-da agged i dica f he e ide ic i he a e ci , hi e c i g f ci a d i e fi ed effec . The e ide ic ea e , i c di g he be f COVID-19 ca e , h i a ca aci , a d he COVID- 19 dea h i he ci , ga ge he da - -da cha ge i e e i , b a ca e cha gi g
4 ce ai he e g h a d a ec f he ci e ide ic e e. A he a e i e, e e ha e e a di a ci g a d bi i - e ic i ea e a e a ac ec ic c di i e e e e i e i he a e e i d, a i g i a e he di ec effec f he e ide ic.
Re gge a g ega i e e i i i f c i i hi -ci cha ge i he b ea e e i . D b i g he i fec ed ca e i a ci a f ed b a 4.9% g ea e dec ea e i he a e- ci ff i e c i . I addi i , i i g be heigh e ed he c ce ab h i a ca aci : he a ci a a g he 30 ci ie i h he highe COVID-19 ca e e a i e he ci h i a bed ca aci , ci ff i e c i d ed b a addi i a 5%. Si i a , d b i g he ci COVID-19 dea h ed a addi i a 2.1% dec ea e i c i . The ega i e a cia i be ee c i a d e ide ic i e i i d i e b W ha , d e i c i cide i h each ci i e e a i f bi i - e ic i ea e ( ha i i e e e di g i ie ). We a fi d he c i e i i i e ide ic e e i be e a g, b h a i a i e a d a i a i e , ac a e di g ca eg ie . I , he e e gge he c e de a d e d ce ai ega di g he a de ic a ec .
T i g he e i f he c i cha ge e i e, e fi d he dec i e i c i a ed i edia e af e W ha c d . O a e age, ci ff i e c i fe b 6.6% d i g he i edia e ee af e W ha c d , bef e eachi g he a ge dec i e (59%-66%) i he e h ee ee af e he b ea . N ab , he c i cha ge beca e e ega i e a i g f he fif h ee , he he e ide ic c e h ed ig f f a e i g. B he e d f eigh ee , he c i dec ea e h a 33%, a 33% i e e e a i e he e c i dec i e. B he e d f Ma ch (i.e., e ee af e he b ea ), c i had f eb ded i ce he diffe e ce-i -diffe e ce e i a e i a i ica di i g i hab e f e . The ec e i e ide f b h he g d a d e ice c i e e e di g di i g & e e ai e a e a a e - e a ed h ch ea e eb d ha e di g di c e i a i e a d d ab e g d . I i a e ha e b e e a e i i a ec e a e b e ic i g he e i d bef e ci ie d g aded f he highe e e f e e ge c b ic hea h a e a d e e (i.e., he egi e c e di g he i ge e ic i ea e ), hich de c e he c i ec e a a di ec e e he i e e i he b ic hea h i a i .
5 H e e , c i fe agai , 20% a d 16% be he ba e i e e e , i he fi ee f A i . Thi e ea ech e he i i g c ce e a e ia ec d a e f i fec i , d i e b i ed a d a a ic ca e . The da - -da c i e e i A i i deed de a e a g ega i e e a i hi i h he e-da agged be f e ca e , i c di g he a a ic ca e ha he g e e a ed e i ce he begi i g f A i . Si ce ci ie e a ed hei bi i e ic i ea e b A i , hi e ide ce high igh he i a ce f e ide ic c ai e i he ec ic ec e .
Ne , e h he c i dec i e a d ec e ac 214 ci ie d i g he e e- ee e i d. A he e ice e , W ha c i dec ea e a ed i edia e a d e ai ed e i e a ge d b 75%-87% i he ec d he eigh h ee , f ed b a ec e i h i c i i d b 52% b he e d f he a e e i d. Se e a ega ci ie , i c di g G a g h , Bei i g, a d Sha ghai, a a i ib e e ge ce f COVID-19 ca e ea he e d f he a e e i d a d a a ge c i dec i e b e e . I addi i , ci ie i h a highe e ice i d c ce a i e de e de ce h ed a e i i a c i ec e a h a ci ie e e ia e ice a d e i d ie . We ca e ec he h he i ha he c i eb d b he e d f Ma ch a d he b e e di i ea A i diffe be ee he e f ci ie , hi e he ec ic c e e ce c i ed a e , e ecia af e he c c e g ba a de ic de e e . The ef e, hi e ide f he ha Chi a c i dec i e a d ec e ace he g e i e ide ic c ai e .
Wha d e ea f he e e ? Fi , he c i c e e ce a e g a e. I e ded i edia e a d a hi ha d ac he b a d. Hea i e ed ci ie , ch a W ha , a hei ff i e c i ed ced b c e 70% d i g a e e- ee e i d. S ic b ic hea h ea e , hich ig ifica e ic ed e e h ica ac i i ie a d ha ed a b i e e , a e i e a i a fac . The fi di g h high igh he i a ce f ic a e i g a d ade a e i e e i a e ia e he ega i e i ac e ecia he e affec ed ec ch a e ai a d ce ai e ice i d ie . O fi di g i ie Chi a e 1.2% f he e i e c 2019 GDP h gh ff i e c i i he e e- ee - b ea e i d, idi g a i f a i e ba a e i a e f he effec ag i de, a a c ie a g h gh he a e e e ie ce.
6 Sec d, he c i a e a h a g ega i e e i i i he da - -da cha ge i he e e i f he b ic hea h c i i . Whe he b ic hea h i a i e ed, c i e ed a e . S ch a e a i hi i e ai ed b he bi i - e ic i ea e ac ec ic c di i ha a ied a a ch e f e e c i he e i d. We b e e a e c agi g a ec f c i ec e a i g f he ec d h af e he b ea , a he e ide ic c e a ed abi i e. Whe i dica f a e ia ec d a e f i fec i i Chi a e e ged i A i , c i i edia e fe agai b a ig ifica a gi , e e h gh ci ie had e a ed he bi i e ic i ea e b he . The e fi di g gge a age e f he b ic hea h c i i i c cia f ei ig a i g ec . Whe c e de a d e ea f he a de ic-i d ced ce ai , ec ic e ief g a , hich f c i ec i g i idi i he ec , a e i a i i ed effec a d e e i bei g ai ab e.
We e e i a e ide a e a i a i e a e e he ec ic be efi f c ai e f he c a i ead. Fi , e ide if , f each ci , he fi da he be f e ec e ed ca e e ceeded he be f e c fi ed ca e . We e he c e a i be ee he ci - e e da - - i g- i a d he a e age fi - h c i dec ea e a e a he i e f c i ec e (c i effec i he a ec d h i he fi h effec ) bac he c i i ica i f he eed c ai he ead. C i g f he ci a i , a 10-da ed c i i he i e f e ec e ed ca e e ceed e i fec ed ca e e e he fi - h c i dec ea e b 3% a d i c ea e he ec d- h c i ec e b 4.1%. Si i a , c i g f he e e f i fec ed ca e , ci ie i h e COVID-19 dea h a e age had 4.5% a e c i dec ea e i he fi - b ea h a d 4.6% g ea e c i ec e i he ec d h.
O c ib i he i e a e a e -f d. A a ge i e a e fi d he ec ic c e e ce f di ea e a e ig ifica (e.g., Fa , Ja i , a d S e , 2016). S ecifica , a ge- ca e i a di ea e ha e a ig ifica g- e i ac GDP a d e -ca i a i c e (B a d Maha , 1997; Sach a d Ma a e , 2002), h a ca i a acc a i (Y g, 2005; A d, 2006; B ea e , 2007), h e ice , a d ba a d ca e (A b , Fie d, a d G a e , 2020). Gi e he g a i g c ce e he COVID-19 a de ic, ec i ha e a ed ide if a d e i a e he e ia ec ic i ac (e.g., A e , 2020; Ba , U a, a d We g, 2020;
7 G e a d K i e , 2020). We e high f e e c a ac i -ba ed c i da a a if he agg ega e c i i ac f COVID-19 a d e a e i he e ide ic e e i b h i he c ec i a d e i e.1
Thi a e a c ib e he deba e e he be efi a d c f b ic hea h ea e ha i i i e e a c ac e ic affic. G ee e a d Niga (2020) a d Fa g, Wa g, a d Ya g (2020) fi d ch ea e a e effec i e i c ai i g he i ead. Re ea ch a h he i e e i ea e i iga e he ega i e ec ic c e e ce (C eia, L c a d Ve e , 2020; D a , Wa g, a d Ya g; 2020; Li, Qi , W , a d Ya , 2020). O he ca i ab he c - effec i e e f cia di a ci g (Adda, 2016) h di ec a d i di ec ec ic c f ch i e e i (Che , He, H ieh, a d S g, 2020; Eiche ba , Rebe , a d T aba d , 2020). O e i a a ge i f ed ced c e de a d i face f he h ge ce ai ega di g he di ea e, ca i i g icie ha eigh i a i g ec ic ac i i ie e b ic hea h eff c ai he a de ic. T he ce ai a ec i e ec i e, he e ide i g i e a e i fa f eachi g a c c i ab he a i i de f hi e c a i (Fe e i e a ., 2020; W g, Le , a d Ta , 2020), he ead a e (Li e a ., 2020; W , Le g, a d Le g, 2020), bidi a d a i (Li e a ., 2020; Tia e a ., 2020), a d he e i e ce f a effec i e acci e edica c e (Ca e a ., 2020).
2. Da a and Em i ical Me hodolog
2.1.C m i da a
O da a e i a dai ci - e e ff i e c i da a e b ai ed f Chi a U i Pa Me cha Se ice C a i (he eaf e Chi a UMS), he a ge ba ca d ac i i g a d fe i a e ice ie i Chi a. The dai ff i e c i i ca c a ed a he f a e di g h gh Chi a UMS POS achi e QR ca e f each ci d i g a e e i d. Gi e hei ece ad i f QR ca e achi e , Chi a UMS ec d e di g a ac i h gh POS achi e , b i ca a ca e a ig ifica ha e f ff i e e di g a ac i h gh bi e QR c de (i.e., e di g i ed e- a e f A i a
1 O a e i e b ad e a ed he a ge i e a e he c i e e i c e ac ec ic h c ( ee e ie b Ja e i a d Pi afe i, 2010). Rece i e a e e high f e e c a d a ac i -ba ed c i da a a d d c e ig ifica c i e e (e.g., Aga a , Li , a d S e e , 2007; Aga a a d Qia , 2014, 2017; Ge a e a ., 2014, Di Maggi e a . 2017).
8 WeCha a acc ). Chi a UMS f c e ffe i g e ice ff i e e cha . Acc di g he ece a i ic ided b Chi a UMS, b he e d f 2019, Chi a UMS had e a a i a e ice e , e i g c e 8 i i ff i e e cha i a i e f ff i e e di g ca eg ie , ch a de a e e , e a a , h e , ai a e , fi a ce a d a a i , gi ic , hea h ca e, a d . I 2019, Chi a UMS c e ed 12.7 bi i a ac i , i h a a ac i e f 15 i i RMB. Of h e a ac i , 9 i i RMB ca e ff i e e di g, hich c e ab 30% f Chi a a ff i e e ai c i ( ce: Chi a B ea f S a i ic ).
O a e c e 214 efec e- e e ci ie i Chi a, i h a ba a i ab e 1 i i i 2017. The e ci ie acc f ab 92% f Chi a 2018 GDP a d c e 90% f Chi a ba a i i 2017. The a e e i d i f Ja a 1, 2020, A i 14, 2020, i h Ja a 23, 2020 ( he W ha c d a i e e ed) defi ed a he a f he b ea . T ca e he c e fac a c i a e , e e he a e da a f Ja a 12, 2019, A i 26, 2019, a he be ch a g , a d e a a e he i ac c i h gh a DID eg e i a ach. N e e a ch he a e i 2019 a d 2020 b he a ca e da i ead f he ca e da da e ca e he ea a i a ia i i c i e a ed CNY. Acc di g , e e Feb a 3, 2019 ( e da bef e CNY E e i i a Ja a 23, 2020), a he c - ff da e defi e he bef e a d e i d f 2019. Be ide a c i , e c ec he ci - e e agg ega ed c i f i de ai ed c i ca eg ie : d ab e g d , dai ece i ie , di c e i a i e , di i g & e e ai e , a e - e a ed e ice, a d he . We a c bi e he i b ad c i e : g d a d e ice ; ee Tab e A1 f he de ai ed c a ifica i f each e.
O da a e ffe e e a ad a age f d i g c i . Fi , e a i e e ed c i da a e , a e c e a 90% he c ba a i a d ide high-f e e c , - -da e, a ac i -ba ed i f a i ab c e ff i e e di g bef e a d af e he b ea f COVID-19. Whi e fficia a i ic e ed agg ega e c e e di g a e i dic ba i , da a ffe a ch e g a a ie a high f e e c a d f each ci i g ac a e di g a ac i . Sec d, i ead f e i g e ecific ba fi a cia i i i , da a e c e c edi ca d a d debi ca d i ed b Chi e e c e cia ba fi a cia i i i ha ca he U i Pa g , a e a bi e a e a ac i ca ed b U i Pa ca e achi e . I , da a ca ca e ff i e c i
9 beha i e e e a i e f Chi a d i g ch a ecede ed b ic hea h c i i . Ad i ed , da a e d e c e he ff i e c i h gh POS achi e QR ca e ha a e e a ed b Chi a UMS. H e e , ch ea e e e i cha ge ai c c i if he di ib i a d e f POS achi e QR ca e f diffe e e ice ide d c ide ab cha ge i he h e i d a d he COVID-19 b ea .
2.2.Da a Chi a’ COVID-19 b eak
We d ad he da a e Chi a COVID-19 f CSMAR da aba e. The dai c a i e c fi ed ca e , c a i e dea h , a d c a i e ec e ed ca e f each i fec ed ci a e da ed dai b he Na i a Hea h C i i f Chi a i ce- e e Hea h C i i i ce Ja a 21, 2020. I addi i , e c ec ci cha ac e i ic , ch a a i , GDP, i d c i i , a d be f h i a bed f Chi a Ci S a i ica Yea b , Chi a U ba C c i S a i ica Yea b , a d CEIC da aba e. The W ha ig a -f da a a e b ai ed f Baid (h :// ia i.baid .c /). The i e e da e f c icie f each ci a e b ai ed f Fa g e a . (2020).
2.3.S mma a i ic
Tab e 1 e e he a a i ic f dai ff i e c i . Ba ed he e e da e f each ea , e di ided he a e i 2019 a d 2020 i e i d : he e- e i d a d he - e i d.
Pa e A e he a a i ic f he 2019 a e (c g ). The a e age ci - e e dai ff i e c i f he h e a e e i d, he e- e i d, a d he - e i d a e 75.23, 89.89, a d 71.35 ( i : i i RMB), e ec i e . Re a i e he e- e i d, he - e i d fe b 18.55 i i RMB, 21%. The edia f he dai ff i e c i f he h ee a e e i d i 32.62, 42.28, a d 30.44. C a ed he e- e i d, he edia f he - e i d dec ea ed b 11.84 i i RMB, 28%. The dec ea e i e ef ec a ea a c i a e a cia ed i h CNY.
Pa e B e he a a i ic f he 2020 a e ( ea ed g ). The a e age ci - e e dai ff i e c i f he h e a e e i d, he e- e i d, a d he - e i d i 33.64, 63.41, a d 25.74 ( i : i i RMB), e ec i e . Re a i e he e- e i d, he - e i d
10 fe b 37.67 i i RMB, 59%. The edia f dai ff i e c i f he f -, e-, a d - e i d a e e i d i 12.89, 27.63, a d 10.19, e ec i e . C a ed he e- e i d, he edia f he - e i d dec ea ed b 17.44 i i RMB, 63%. C a ed i h he e ce age cha ge bef e a d af e he e e da e i 2019, e ee a addi i a 38% dec ea e i 2020 ba ed ea , a d 35% ba ed edia .
Pa e C f he e he ea diffe e ce f ff i e c i be ee he e- e i d a d he - e i d b c i e a d ca eg . Fi , he ea diffe e ce ( - e) a e ega i e, i h a i ica ig ifica ce f a e a d ca eg ie i 2019 a d 2020. I 2019, dai c i f g d fe b 11.05 i i RMB, a e age, 18%, hi e he dai c i f e ice fe b 7.50 i i RMB, 26%. I 2020, he dec ea e i g d c i e a ded 23.73 i i RMB, 58%. The cha ge i e ice c i i -13.94 i i RMB, 63%, e e e e ha he e f g d .
F e de ai ed c i ca eg ie , e f c de c ibi g he e ce age cha ge i 2020. Wi hi g d , di c e i a i e fe he , b 71%. Wi hi e ice , di i g & e e ai e fe he b 79%. Ba ed he e ce age cha ge e a i e 2019, he h ee ca eg ie a e di i g & e e ai e (67%), a e - e a ed (64%), a d d ab e g d (42%).
[I e Tab e 1 ab He e]
[In e Fig e 1 abo He e]
T ie he i e- e ie a e f dai ff i e c i , Fig e 1 e e i e- e ie f he a da a f he f a e f W ha , H bei i ce, a d ide H bei P i ce. The fi di g ca be a i ed a f . Fi , he dai ff i e-c i e ie i 2020 ( ed i e) i a a be ha f 2019 (b e da h i e), a d he ga ide i he e i d. The e e diffe e ce a he begi i g f 2020 e a i e he a e e i d i 2019 a ge ef ec c e a i i i e e di g, b he i c e e a a f he ga i he e i d h d be c ib ed he h c f he COVID-19 b ea e e .2 Sec d, he dai ff i e c i
2 The i a ide if i g a i f a a i i ha he a e ha e f U i Pa -ca ed e di g d e a i a h h i . We c a ed he h a e di g a ca ed b U i Pa i h he h a e ai c i e ed b Na i a B ea f S a i ic a d i deed fi d a c i e ha e i he fi f h f 2019. M e e , U i Pa ff i e ha e d e e hibi a ig ifica dec i e af e he b ea , e a i e
11 fe b a ig ifica a i he e i d f 2019 a d 2020, i e d e CNY, i ce he 2019 i e e ie ic eb ded. O he he ha d, he i e e ie f 2020 ( ed i e) a ed e i e f a e e ded e i d f i e, hich a a ge e e ca e he c i i ac f COVID-19. Thi d, c a ed he f a ci ie a d ci ie ide H bei, W ha a d H bei e e e e e hi a d ec e ed e af e he COVID-19 b ea .
We e he a a i ic f ci cha ac e i ic a iab e i Tab e A2. A g he 214 ci ie i a e, 9.4% a e a ed i 20 ci e b W ha ig a i f bef e he COVID- 19 b ea . O 2.3% ci ie e ed e ca e (N=5). The ea f he a be f COVID- 19 ca e (e c di g a a ic ca e , b A i 13) i 367, he ea he edia a d 90% a i e a e 32 a d 836, i i g a e ed i fec i i e i ac ci ie .3 The ea f he a e age ac i e ca e e 100 h i a bed , A e age PTB, i 0.22, he ea he edia a d 90% a i e a e 0.03 a d 0.9, e ec i e . A e age PTB i e ha 1 f ci ie , fa be he e e e i a i i c di g W ha (16.4), E h (5.5), Xia ga g (4.5), i a ed i Fig e A1. The a e age dea h a f A i 13, 2020 e he e i d i 15.
2.4.Em i ical Me h d l g
U i g he i e e a i f he W ha c d (Ja . 23, 2020) a he a f he COVID-19 b ea (Fa g e a ., 2020), e e a a e he i ac f COVID-19 dai ff i e c i i h he f i g diffe e ce-i -diffe e ce eg e i a ach:
Y ,, =++ T ea + ò (1)
he e he de e de a iab e, Y , i he dai e di g a (i i i RMB), hich i i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . T e i a e he e ce age cha ge , e a e he dai e di g a di ided b he e- e i d a e age e di g a he 4 de e de a iab e. ca e he i di id a fi ed effec ab b i e-i a ia fac a he ci e e . The d a iab e i defi ed a 1 f 2020 a e b e a i , a d 0 he i e. P i defi ed a 1 f e i d af e Ja a 23, 2020, f 2020 a e , a d f
he cha ge i 2019. 3 Chi a Na i a Hea h C i i a ed e a a ic ca e , a he a i a e e (a ed he ci e e ), f A i 1, 2020. 4 The g- a f ed a ach f e i a i g e ce age cha ge f a cha ge .
12 e i d af e Feb a 3, 2019, f 2019 a e . i a ec f i e- e a ed d a iab e c f he i e- a i g e d f dai c i . S ecifica , e i c de he da f ee a d he di a ce CNY fi ed effec . ca e he a e age e e he COVID-19 b ea e e .
T i e iga e he d a ic e i f he i ac , e f he e i a e he f i g ecified eg e i :
K Y ,,=+ + T ea +ò (2) =0
he e i he d a iab e defi ed f a ecific e i d af e he e e da e, a d he c efficie e i a e he i ac ff i e c i d i g he c e di g e i d.
I addi i , e i e iga e he he e ge ei f he i ac ac ci ie e i e b addi g i e ac i e i e a i (1) a f :
Y ,, =++ T ea P + I e ac e T ea P D I ac e +ò (3)
The e c efficie I e ac e ca e he e a a e age i ac f he COVID-19 b ea f he g defi ed b he i e ac i e e , e a i e he be ch a g .
A e a i a e e i a ed i g di a ea a e (OLS), a d a da d e a e c e ed a he ci e e .
3. Main Re l
3.1.The a e age effec c m i
We begi b e i a i g he a e age effec dai ff i e c i a d e he e i Tab e 2. Pa e A e e he e i a ed e f e a i (1) i h he ff i e e di g a (i i i RMB) a he de e de a iab e. C 1 h he e i a ed e f he a e di g f a c i e a d ca eg ie . The c efficie f he i e ac i e e * i -18.57, hich a i ica ig ifica a he 1% e e , i i g a dec ea e f 18.57 i i RMB
13 i dai ff i e c i a e age f each ci , e a i e he c e fac a a h i h he COVID-19 b ea e e . C 2 a d 3 e he e i a ed e b c i e . O a e age, he dai ff i e g d c i fe b 12.47 i i RMB, he ea dai e ice e di g dec ea ed b 6.16 i i RMB, f each ci . The d a iab e i ig ifica ega i e f a ff i e c i , ff i e g d c i a d ff i e e ice c i , hich i e ef ec he g i g a i i f ff i e i e e di g f Chi e e c e i ece ea .
Pa e B e he e i a i e f e a i (1) i h he e di g a di ided b he e- e i d a e age a he de e de a iab e. Agai , c 1 h he e i a ed e f a ff i e e di g, he e he diffe e ce-i -diffe e ce c efficie i -0.32. The e i a e i a i ica ig ifica a he 1% e e , i dica i g a 32% dec ea e i ff i e c i a e age d i g he e i d i 2020, e a i e he c e fac a a h i 2019. F c 2 a d 3, e ee he ff i e g d a d e ice c i dec ea ed b a c a ab e a i e ce age e (33% . 34%).
[In e Table 2 abo He e]
The e a a a i c fi he b ea f COVID-19 e e e hi he a e age ff i e c i . H e e , e a de ha ca eg f ff i e c i ha ffe ed he f he h c . Tab e 3 e he e i a ed e i h he de e de a iab e defi ed a he e di g a f each ca eg di ided b e- e i d a e age ca eg e di g. C 1-6 e he e f dai ece i ie , di c e i a i e , d ab e g d , di i g & e e ai e , a e - e a ed, a d he ( ee Tab e A1 f c a ifica i f he e ca eg ie ). F a ca eg ie , he diffe e ce-i -diffe e ce c efficie a e ig ifica ega i e, i i g he COVID-19 b ea h a c i ca eg ie . Acc di g he ag i de f he i ac , di i g & e e ai e fe he , b 64%, f ed b a e - e a ed i h a dec ea e f 59% a d he d ab e g d i h 35%. The e di g ca eg ea affec ed i dai ece i ie (-15%), a c e i had ee hei ba ic eed . D i g b ea e i d , ci ie i Mai a d Chi a decided c e -e e ia e ice b i e e , ee i g e a e a d ha acie e . Addi i a , c e ed hei g ce h i g i e e ai e (Che e a ., 2020). O e a , he a ge i ac e e ai e & di i g a e a a e i i a e ai ed b he ic a e a d di a ci g ea e ha a ci ie ad ed ha c ed a e ice b i e e .
14 [In e Table 3 abo He e]
3.2.The agg ega e im ac In o ample, 214 ci ie acco n fo 90% of China ban pop la ion, and UnionPa cap e 30% of China offline con mp ion. O p e io finding h gge ha if o he offline con mp ion e pe ienced a imila a e of dec ea e, he o al dec ea e in China offline con mp ion i 14.72 billion RMB pe da (=18.57 million*214/(0.9*0.3)), o 1.22 illion RMB (=14.72billion*83) d ing he el e- eek po -o b eak pe iod. A a efe ence, he co n o al GDP in 2019 a 99.10 illion RMB. No e 1.22 illion RMB likel ep e en a lo e -bo nd e ima e, beca e con mp ion ing ca h p e mabl i mo e e e el affec ed ( e ie ing ca h i mo e affec ed b mobili e ic ion and an ac ing ia ca h al o ai e po en ial of i p eading).
One pla ible h po he i lie in he b i ion f om hopping offline o online a a e l of COVID-19 (e.g., g oce hopping). No e fi ha offline ill con i ed 76% of o al con mp ion in China in 2019 ( o ce: Na ional B ea of S a i ic ), hich implie online pending o ld ha e o inc ea e b an n eali ic amo n o comple el off e he ma i e dec ea e in offline con mp ion ha e doc men . In addi ion, he lockdo n o ic a el e ic ion al o limi he capabili of E-comme ce o e e con mp ion need d e o hei la ge impac on di ib ion ne o k and logi ic (L ohan Academ , 2020). To p o ide a be e a e men , e ili e he online pending da a cap ed b he online pa men pla fo m ChinaPa (held b UnionPa ) and compa e he online pending e pon e ela i e o ha of offline pending in 2020. Al ho gh ChinaPa i no he dominan pa men p o ide fo online pending, i ha g o n eadil in ecen ea i h abo 5% of he online pending ma ke ha e.
We foc on he op 30 Chine e ci ie anked b GDP in he anal i o alle ia e he conce n abo ChinaPa eake co e age in mall ci ie . In addi ion, he e 30 ci ie acco n fo 44% of China GDP in 2018. We compa e he pe cen age change in online pending in he e 30 ci ie a o nd he COVID-19 o b eak, ela i e o he pe cen age change in offline con mp ion d ing he ame pe iod in 2020. To he e en ha he e of ChinaPa online pa men e ice doe no change in he ho indo a o nd COVID-19, diffe ence-in-diffe ence e ima e can be in e p e ed a he inc emen al pe cen age change in online pending ela i e o he pe cen age change in offline
15 con mp ion. The eg e ion coefficien epo ed in Table A3 of he In e ne Appendi i 0.31 and i a i icall ignifican a he 1% le el. Thi finding gge online pending inc ea ed b 31% ela i e o he pe cen age change in con mp ion offline af e he o b eak. We e e a ion (1) o epa a el e ima e he e 30 ci ie offline con mp ion impac (-0.44). Th , online pending al o dec ea ed, e en ho gh m ch le han offline pending, b 13% (=0.31-0.44). If e e apola e hi e ima e a ep e en a i e, gi en he 76% ha e of offline con mp ion in China, e infe he o al con mp ion in China had e pe ienced a dec ea e of 27% el e eek af e he o b eak.
3.3.The le f he e e i e i : ac ci ie
The ega i e c i i ac i a ge a d e a e a g he 214 ci ie i a e. The edia ci e e ie ced a c i dec ea e f 33% a d e ha 90% f he 214 ci ie a a c i dec ea e f e ha 20%. I he f i g, e i e iga e he i ac he e ge ei ac ci ie i h diffe e e e COVID-19. Tab e 4 e he e i a ed e f e a i (3) i h h ee diffe e d a iab e : , T 20 , a d C 0 . i defi ed a 1 f W ha . T 20 i defi ed a 1 f he 20 ci ie ecei i g ig a f W ha be ee Ja a 10 a d Ja a 24 f 2020 acc di g he Baid ig a i i de . C 0 i defi ed a 1 f ci ie i h c fi ed COVID-19 ca e a f A i 13, 2020.
C 1 h he e i a i e i h i e ac i g i h a d d ie . The e i a ed c efficie f he i e ac i e e i -0.38 i h a i ica ig ifica ce, i i g a addi i a 38% dec ea e i dai ff i e c i i W ha c a ed -W ha ci ie . C 2 e he e f T 20 . The e i a ed c efficie f he i e ac i e e i -0.11 i h a i ica ig ifica ce; ha i , he dai ff i e c i f he e 20 ci ie had a addi i a 11% dec ea e c a ed he ci ie (e c di g W ha ). C 3 e he e i a ed e f C 0 . The e i a ed c efficie f he i e ac i e e i 0.12, i h a i ica ig ifica ce, i i g a 12% e ega i e e e he COVID- 19 b ea f he e ci ie i h c fi ed ca e . M e ge e a , e fi d ha ci ie i h highe e -ca i a COVID-19 ca e (a f A i 13, 2020) e e ie ced a a ge c i dec i e, af e c i g f he ci GDP e ia ce e ice a d e i d ie (c 4).
16 [I e Tab e 4 ab He e]
We f he de a e he ega i e e a i hi be ee he i ac ff i e c i a d ci e e COVID-19 i Fig e 2. Pa e A di a he i e ca e be ee he ci - e e e ce age cha ge i ff i e c i a d he be f COVID-19 ca e a f A i 13, 2020. The e ce age cha ge i he ci - e e dai ff i e c i i e i a ed f e a i (1) i h ci d a iab e i e ac i g i h a d , a d he de e de a iab e defi ed a e di g a di ided b he e- e i d a e age. The eg e i i e fi ed i he h a ig ifica ega i e c efficie i h a R- a e f 0.23, i i g a 23% a ia i i he i ac ac ci ie ca be e ai ed b he a ia i i he a be f COVID-19 ca e .
Pa e B e e hea a ab he ge g a hic di ib i f e ce age cha ge i ff i e c i i c a i he a be f COVID-19 ca e (e c di g a a ic ca e ) a he e d f he a e e i d. 5 The i he b h he COVID-19 ca e c ce a ed i W ha a d ea b ci ie i he H bei i ce. A f A i 13, 2020, W ha had 50,008 ca e , 61% f he a ca e i Mai a d Chi a (82,249), a d he 10 ci ie a e a i he H bei i ce, c ec i e acc i g f ab 79% f a ca e i he c . O ide f H bei, 7 ci e (Ch g i g, We h , She he , Bei i g, Sha ghai, G a g h a d M da ia g) had e ha 300 ca e . The fig e h ide a ia i i he i ac ac ci ie . We ca fi d e c e a cia i be ee he e di ib i . F e a e, W ha a d 10 he H bei ci ie a e a i ed i he ci ie i h e ce age cha ge a ge ha 40%. I ge e a , he ge g a hica a e ei f ce he e ide ce ha he e e i he COVID-19 e e, he a ge he i ac ff i e c i .
[In e Fig e 2 abo He e]
3.4.Wi hi -ci a ia i i e e
The c - ec i a fi di g e ea a c e i g a e be ee e ide ic e e i a d cha ge i ci c i . I i i e a ib ab e he c e e ce f he di a ci g a d bi i - e ic i ea e , ei he b h ica c ai i g e e h i g i ie h gh
5 We a ide he ge g a hica di ib i f he ea e f he COVID-19 e e i Fig e A1 f he I e e A e di , i c di g he e ce age f W ha ig a i f i a ci , he be f ac i e ca e e 100 h i a bed a d he a COVID-19 dea h a f A i 13, 2020. We ee a e i i a a e .
17 affec i g i c e a d b ec i . I addi i , he e ide ic di ea e ca i d ce ce ai a d a ie a d cha ge c e i i g e e d, ab e bi i e ic i a d f h e i h i i e i c e c ce . T ha e he i e e a i , a d e ecia hed igh he a e h he i , e e e age he high f e e c da a e a i e h dai c i i each ci e d he da - -da cha ge i he e ide ic e e i i he a e ci hi e c i g f ci a d i e fi ed effec . We e ha bi i - e ic i ea e a e a he ac ec ic c di i (e.g., e e ) e e ch e e i e i he a e e i d.
We e a i e hi h he i b e i a i g e a i (3) i g h ee ie f COVID-19 i e i g(1+ e ca e), PTB , a d g(1+dea ) a i e ac i e a iab e ca e hei i ac . e ca e i he one-da lagged n mbe of ne l confi med pa ien . The d a iab e PTB i defined a 1 if he ci PTB i among he op 30 hi da e, he ea PTB i he one- da lagged n mbe of ac i e pa ien pe 100 ho pi al bed in he ci . i he e-da agged be f COVID-19 dea h . The e ea e ga ge he da - -da cha ge i he e ide ic e e i , hich a c e a e i h cha gi g ce ai he e g h a d a ec f he ci e ide ic e e.
C 1 f Tab e 5 h he e b i g he be f e ca e f COVID-19 a a ( (1+ )). The e gge d b i g he i fec ed ca e i a ci ed a 4.9% g ea e ed c i i ff i e c i . C 2 h he e i a ed e f PTB . The e gge he ci i c ed a addi i a 5% dec ea e i ff i e c i he i a a g he 30 ci ie i h he highe h i a -ca aci c ai . C 3 h ha d b i g he COVID-19 dea h i a ci ed a addi i a 2.1% dec ea e f ff i e c i . I a , e fi d e ide ce f a ch ge dec ea e i ff i e c i i e e he i c ea e i e ca e , i c ea i g e he h i a e a d he i c ea e i COVID-19 dea h i he ci .
[I e Tab e 5 ab He e]
F b e , e e ea he ab e eg e i a a i b e c di g W ha ci a d c i g f bi i - e ic i ice ha e e i e e ed d i g he a e e i d (Fa g e a .,
18 2020).6 The c efficie f he i e ac i e e f diffe e i hi ci i e i ea e a e a ig ifica ega i e, i dica i g ha he fi di g ab he ge ega i e e e he i i g f COVID-19 i e i , a e d i e b W ha , e ai ed a a b he ed ced cha e i ie af e ci ie i e e ed ic e bi i - e ic i ea e (Tab e A4). I e ed e , e a fi d he c i e i i i e ide ic e e i be e a g, b h a i a i e a d a i a i e , ac a e di g ca eg ie . T he e e ha ice ad e (e.g., d e gi ic e e) d e ab be e ced i g ce ie a d he dai ece i ie , he effec i i e e ai ed b c e e e ice. I , he e e gge c e de a d e d ce ai ega di g he a de ic a ec .
3.5.The d amic f he c m i e e
T d he d a ic a e f he ff i e-c i e e COVID-19, e e i a ed e a i (2), i h e e d a iab e , 0, 1, , 11, i e ac i g i h he d a iab e. Whe ea he d a iab e 0 i defi ed f he a e e i d [0, 6] af e he e e da e, 1, , 11 a e defi ed f he b e e e e e ee af e he e e da e.
Fig e 3 e e he e i a ed effec f he ee -b - ee e ce age cha ge i dai a ff i e c i d i g he e e- ee e i d. We b e e a a e i h a acce e a ed dec i e i he fi f ee a d a g ad a ec e a i g f he ec d h. Pa ic a , ci ff i e c i fe b 6.6% d i g he fi ee af e W ha c d , a d b 59%, 66%, a d 65% f he e h ee ee . The c i cha ge beca e e ega i e, i h 42% dec ea e i he fif h ee he he e ide ic c e a ed f a e . The c i dec ea e had h a 33% b he e d f he ec d h, i h a 33% i e e f he e ff i e c i dec i e.7 F he hi d h, e fi b e e a ea a he e d f Ma ch (i.e., e ee af e he b ea ), he he c i ha f eb ded a he diffe e ce- i -diffe e ce e i a e i a i ica di i g i hab e f e . I i a e ha e
6 We a e a a e a i e ba ed he da e he ci ie ac i a ed a d if ed he highe e e f b ic hea h e e ge c a e a d e e i he a i b ic hea h a age e e . The e e ai e i i a : i hi each b ic hea h a age e egi e, e b e e a g ega i e c i e e da - -da cha ge i e ide ic e e i . 7 T e a i e he ig ifica ce f he ec e , e c d c F- e he h he e ab he e a i f c efficie f ad ace e i d . The e a i f c efficie f 3 a d 4 i e ec ed i h - a e a e ha 0.001, c fi i g he ec e f ff i e c i i ce he fif h ee .
19 b e e a e i i a ec e a e b e ic i g he e i d bef e ci ie d g aded f he highe e e f e e ge c b ic hea h a e a d e e (i.e., he egi e c e di g he i ge e ic i ea e ), hich de c e he c i ec e a a di ec e e he i e e i he b ic hea h i a i ( ee Fig e A2).
H e e , c i fe agai , 20% a d 16% be he ba e i e e e e ec i e , i he fi ee f A i . Thi e ea ech e he i i g c ce e a e ia ec d a e f i fec i , d i e b i ed a d a a ic ca e . The da - -da c i e e i A i e e ed i Fig e A3 i deed de a ed a g ega i e e a i hi i h he e-da agged be f e ca e , af e i c di g he a a ic ca e ha he g e e a ed e i ce he begi i g f A i .8 Si ce ci ie had e a ed hei bi i e ic i ea e b A i , hi e ide ce high igh he i a ce f e ide ic c ai e i d i i g ec ic ec e .
[In e Fig e 3 abo He e]
Fig e 4 h he d a ic ff i e c i e e b c i e a d ca eg . I ge e a , e b e e a i i a a e f g d c i a d e ice c i . The e diffe e ce i ha e ice c i ec e ed ea ie b a a e eed ha g d c i . Wi hi g d , dai ece i ie dec ea ed ch e ha di c e i a i e a d d ab e g d b he a e h ed a ch ge ec e . D ab e g d e di g a e e e e hi ha e di g di c e i a i e i he fi h ee ee a d ec e ed a e b a a g ea e a e. Wi hi e ice , e di g b h di i g & e e ai e a d a e - e a ed e ice e ha 80% i he ec d ee , a d h ch ea e eb d ha e di g di c e i a i e a d d ab e g d .
[In e Fig e 4 abo He e]
We f he i a e hi i b h i g he e a c i dec i e a d ec e ac 214 ci ie d i g he e e- ee e i d. Fig e 5 e e he hea a f h ee - e i d : [0, 27], [28, 55], a d [56, 82]. Vi a , e b e e a e d ha he ed c , ef ec i g he ag i de f i ac , i da f ci ie he a i he fi h, a d he bec e ch
8 We a c fi he i a c e a i i g a eg e i a a i .
20 igh e f a ea i he ec d h, i h e ci ie e e h i g i i e cha ge i he hi d h. E ce i he g ec e i c de W ha a d e e a he ace , hich gg ed i h a a ge ega i e c i i ac b he e d f he e e- ee e i d. F e a e, W ha c i dec ea e a ed i edia e a d e ai ed e i e a ge d b 75%-87% i he ec d he eigh h ee , f ed b a ec e i h i c i i d b 52% b he e d f he a e e i d. Se e a ega ci ie , i c di g G a g h , Bei i g, a d Sha ghai, a a i ib e e ge ce f COVID-19 ca e ea he e d f he a e e i d a d a a ge c i dec i e b e e (Fig e A4).
[In e Fig e 5 abo He e]
I addi i , ci ie i h a highe e ice i d c ce a i e de e de ce h ed a e i i a c i ec e a h a ci ie e e ia e ice a d e i d ie (Fig e 6). S ecifica , e ca e ec he h he i ha he c i eb d b he e d f Ma ch a d he b e e di i ea A i diffe be ee he e f ci ie , hi e he ec ic c e e ce c i ed a e , e ecia af e he c c e g ba a de ic de e e . The ef e, hi e ide f he ha Chi a c i dec i e a d ec e ace he g e i e ide ic c ai e .
[In e Fig e 6 abo He e]
4. Concl ion
We e high-f e e c , a ac i -ba ed c i da a d he i ac f COVID-19 i he h ee- h - b ea e i d. Off i e c i d ed b a a e age f 32% i Chi a. I e ded i edia e a d a hi ha d ac he b a d. Hea i e ed ci ie , ch a W ha , a hei ff i e c i ed ce b 70% d i g he e e- ee e i d. E e ci ie i h e ed COVID-19 ca e e e ie ced a a ge dec ea e i hei ff i e c i f ee . The fi di g h high igh he i a ce f ic a e i g a d ade a e i e e i a e ia e he ega i e i ac , e ecia he e affec ed ec ch a e ai a d ce ai e ice i d ie . O fi di g i ie Chi a e 1.2% f he e i e c 2019 GDP h gh ff i e c i i he e e- ee e i d, idi g a i f a i e ba a e i a e f he effec ag i de, a a c ie a g h gh he a e
21 e e ie ce.
F he e, he c i a e a h a g ega i e e i i i he e e i f he b ic hea h c i i . Whe he b ic hea h i a i e ed, c i e ed a e . O he he ha d, c i i e ed g ig f ec e a i g f he ec d h af e he b ea , i acc da ce i h a g ad a abi i i g e d f COVID-19. Thi fi di g gge a age e f he b ic hea h c i i i c cia f ei ig a i g ec . Whe c e de a d e ea f ce ai , ec ic e ief g a a e i a i i ed effec ab e a effec i e b ic hea h i e e i c ai he ead. O e i a e gge a ig ifica ec ic be efi f c ai i g he i h gh a e e ed c i dec ea e a d a fa e c i ec e .
22 R
Adda, J e. 2016. "Ec ic Ac i i a d he S ead f Vi a Di ea e : E ide ce f High F e e c Da a." Q J E , 131(2), 891-941. Aga a , S i , Ch i Li , a d Nich a S. S e e . 2007. The Reac i f C e S e di g a d Deb Ta Reba e E ide ce f C e C edi Da a. J P E , 115(6), 986-1019. Aga a , S i , a d We a Qia . 2014. C i a d Deb Re e U a ici a ed I c e Sh c : E ide ce f a Na a E e i e i Si ga e. A E R , 104(12), 4205-30. Aga a , S i , a d We a Qia . 2017. Acce H e E i a d C i : E ide ce f a P ic E e i e . R E S , 99(1), 40-52. A d, D g a . 2006. "I he 1918 I f e a Pa de ic O e ? L g- e Effec f i U e I f e a E e i he P ‐1940 U.S. P a i ." J P E , 114(4), 672-712. A b , A i a; E ica Fie d a d R be G a e . 2020. "L i he Ti e f Ch e a: L g-R I ac f a Di ea e E ide ic he U ba La d ca e." A E R , 110(2), 475- 525. A e , A d e . 2020. "Wha Wi Be he Ec ic I ac f COVID-19 i he US? R gh E i a e f Di ea e Sce a i ." N B E R P S , N . 26867. Ba , R be J.; J F. U a a d J a a We g. 2020. "The C a i a d he G ea I f e a Pa de ic: Le f he S a i h F f he C a i P e ia Effec M a i a d Ec ic Ac i i ." N B E R P S , N . 26866. B ea e , H . 2007. "Di ea e a d De e e : E ide ce f H E adica i i he A e ica S h." Q J E , 122(1), 73-117. B , Da id E. a d A a S. Maha . 1997. "D e he AIDS E ide ic Th ea e Ec ic G h?" J E , 77(1), 105-24. Ca , Bi ; Ye i g Wa g; Da i g We ; We Li ; Ji g i Wa g; G h i Fa ; Lia g R a ; Bi S g; Ya i g Cai; Mi g Wei, e a . 2020. "A T ia f L i a i Ri a i i Ad H i a i ed i h Se e e C id-19." N E J M , f hc i g. Che , Qi , Zhig He; Cha g-Tai H ieh a d Zhe g (Michae ) S g. 2020. " Ec ic Effec f
23 L c d i Chi a." C H K -T J R C C E , CO ID-19 T R N . 2. C eia, Se gi ; S e ha L c a d E i Ve e . 2020. "Pa de ic De e he Ec , P b ic Hea h I e e i D N : E ide ce f he 1918 F ." P . Di Maggi , Ma c , A i Ke a i, Be a i J. Ke , T a Pi i, R d e Ra cha a , A i Se , a d Vi ce Ya . 2017. I e e Ra e Pa - h gh: M gage Ra e , H eh d C i , a d V a De e e agi g. A E R , 107(11), 3550-88. D a , H gb ; Sh a g Wa g a d C ih g Ya g. 2020. "C a i : Li i Sh -Te Ec ic Da age." N , 578, 515. Eiche ba , Ma i S.; Se gi Rebe a d Ma hia T aba d . 2020. "The Mac ec ic f E ide ic ." N B E R P S , N . 26882. Fa , Vic ia Y.; Dea T. Ja i a d La e ce H. S e . 2016. "The I c i e C f Pa de ic I f e a Ri ." N B E R P S , N . 22137. Fa g, Ha i g; L g Wa g a d Ya g Ya g. 2020. "H a M bi i Re ic i a d he S ead f he N e C a i (2019- C ) i Chi a." N B E R P S , N . 26906. Fe e i, L ca; Ch i W a ; Miche e Ke da ; Le e Zha ; A e N a ; L cie Abe e -D e ; Michae Pa e ; Da id B a a d Ch i he F a e . 2020. "Q a if i g SARS-C V-2 T a i i S gge E ide ic C i h Digi a C ac T aci g." S , f hc i g.
Ge a , Michae , Shacha Ka i , Ma he D. Sha i , Da Si e a , a d S e e Tade i . 2014. "Ha e i g Na a Occ i g Da a Mea e he Re e f S e di g I c e." S , 345(6193), 212-215. G e , Nie J. a d Ra h S.J. K i e . 2020. "C a i : I ac S c P ice a d G h E ec a i ." P . G ee e, Michae a d Vi ha Niga . 2020. "D e S cia Di a ci g Ma e ?" BFI P NO. 2020-26. Ja e i, T i , a d L igi Pi afe i. 2010. The C i Re e I c e Cha ge . A R E , 2, 479-506. Li, Ke a g; Y Qi ; Ji g W a d J b Ya . 2020. "C ai i g he Vi Re i i g he Ec ? E ide ce f I di id a E ec a i D i g he COVID-19 E ide ic." P .
24 Li, Q ; X h a G a ; Pe g W ; Xia e Wa g; Lei Zh ; Ye i g T g; R i i Re ; Ka h S. M. Le g; E ic H. Y. La ; Je ica Y. W g, e a . 2020. "Ea T a i i D a ic i W ha , Chi a, f N e C a i I fec ed P e ia." N E J M , 382(13), 1199-207. Li, R i ; Se Pei; Bi Che ; Yi e g S g; Ta Zha g; Wa Ya g a d Jeff e Sha a . 2020. "S b a ia U d c e ed I fec i Faci i a e he Ra id Di e i a i f N e C a i (SARS-C V2)." S , f hc i g. L ha Acade . 2020. S Rec e a COVID-19 G e G ba . Sach , Jeff e a d Pia Ma a e . 2002. "The Ec ic a d S cia B de f Ma a ia." N , 415(680-685). Tia , H ai ; Y gh g Li ; Yida Li; Chieh-H i W ; Bi Che ; M i U. G. K ae e ; Bi g i g Li; J Cai; B X ; Qi i Ya g, e a . 2020. "A I e iga i f T a i i C Mea e D i g he Fi 50 Da f he COVID-19 E ide ic i Chi a." S , f hc i g. Y g, A . 2005. "The Gif f he D i g: The T aged f AIDS a d he We fa e f F e Af ica Ge e a i ." Q J E , 120(2), 423-66. W g, J h E. L.; Yee Si Le a d Ch h Ch a Ta . 2020. "COVID-19 i Si ga e C e E e ie ce: C i ica G ba I e Tha Re i e A e i a d Ac i ." JAMA. W , J e h T.; Ka h Le g a d Gab ie M. Le g. 2020. "N ca i g a d F eca i g he P e ia D e ic a d I e a i a S ead f he 2019-Nc O b ea O igi a i g i W ha , Chi a: A M de i g S d ." T L , 395(10225), 689-97.
25 F 1: D O C : R D
N : The dai a ff i e c i i ca c a ed a he f a e di g h gh U i Pa Me cha Se ice (UMS) POS achi e a d QR ca e f each ci -da . O a e c e 214 efec e- e e Chi e e ci ie i h e ha e i i ba a i . The a e e i d f 2019 i f Ja .12, 2019 A i 26, 2019, a d he a e e i d f 2020 i f Ja . 1, 2020 A i 14, 2020. The e e da e i defi ed a Jan a 23, 2020 ( he da e hen W han lockdo n a implemen ed), hile he e e da e f 2019 i defi ed a Feb a 3, 2019, e da bef e he Chine e Ne Yea E e a ell. The e ica i e i dica e he da e f Ja a 23, 2020. The ed id i e di a he i e e ie f a dai e di g f he a e e i d i 2020, hi e he b e da h i e f 2019.
26 F 2: O C R C
N : Thi fig e h he i ac f COVID-19 ff i e c i ac ci ie . Pe ce age cha ge i dai ff i e c i i he diffe e ce-i -diffe e ce eg e i c efficie , a d a dai c i da a a e i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . Pa e A di a ca e be ee he e ce age cha ge i ff i e c i a d he a be f COVID-19 ca e (e c di g a a ic ca e ) a f A i 13, 2020. We a i c de he fi ed i e i he ca e . Pa e B e e hea a h i g he ge g a hic di ib i f b h ff i e c i cha ge a d he be f a COVID-19 ca e (e c di g a a ic ca e ) a f A i 13, 2020.
P A: P # CO ID-19
27 P B: G
28 F 3: D O C R
N : Thi fig e e e he d a ic ff i e c i e e. Pe ce age cha ge i dai ff i e c i i he eg e i c efficie e i a ed f he diffe e ce-i -diffe e ce eg e i e e d a iab e , 0, 1, , 11, i e ac i g i h he d a iab e, a d a dai c i da a a e i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . The d a iab e 0 i defi ed f he a e e i d [0, 6] af e he e e da e, he ea 1, , 11 a e defi ed f he b e e e e e ee af e he e e da e. T i e a 1 f b e a i i 2020, a d 0 f b e a i i 2019. The e e da e i defi ed a Jan a 23, 2020 ( he da e hen W han lockdo n a implemen ed), he ea he e en da e fo 2019 i defined a Feb a 3, 2019, one da befo e he 2019 Chine e Ne Yea E e. The b e i e di a he e ce age cha ge f dai ff i e c i , i h haded a ea i dica i g 95% c fide ce i e a . T a # f CO ID-19 i he a COVID- 19 ca e (e c di g a a ic ca e ) a he e d f he e e ee .
29 F 4: O C C : B C
N : The e fig e e e he d a ic ff i e c i e e b ca eg ie . Pe ce age cha ge i dai ff i e c i i he eg e i c efficie e i a ed f he diffe e ce-i -diffe e ce eg e i e e d a iab e , 0, 1, , 11, i e ac i g i h d a iab e, a d a dai c i da a a e i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . The d a iab e 0 i defi ed f he a e e i d [0, 6], he ea 1, , 11 a e defi ed f he b e e e e e ee . T i e a 1 f b e a i i 2020, a d 0 f b e a i i 2019. The e e da e i defi ed a Jan a 23, 2020, he ea he e en da e fo 2019 i defined a Feb a 3, 2019. The b e i e di a he e ce age cha ge f dai ff i e c i , i h haded a ea i dica i g 95% c fide ce i e a .
Panel A: Good and e ice
30 Panel B: S bca ego
31 F 5: I O C C
N : The e fig e e e he effec he e ge ei ff i e c i ac ci ie a d e h ee - e i d : [0,27], [28,55] a d [56,82]. Pe ce age cha ge i dai ff i e c i i eg e i c efficie e i a ed f he diffe e ce-i -diffe e ce eg e i h ee b- e i d d a iab e de c ibed ab e, i e ac i g i h he d a iab e a d 214 ci d ie , a d a dai c i da a a e i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . T i e a 1 f b e a i i 2020, a d 0 f b e a i i 2019.
E 0,27 E 28,55
E 56,82
32 F 6: O C C : B R H
N : The e fig e e e he e i a ed d a ic ff i e c i cha ge f egi i h diffe e e e e ice i d (Pa e A) a d e (Pa e B). Pe ce age cha ge i dai ff i e c i i he eg e i c efficie e i a ed f he diffe e ce-i -diffe e ce eg e i e e d a iab e , 0, 1, , 11, i e ac i g i h d a iab e a d h ee e ci e d ie , a d a dai c i da a a e i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . The d a iab e 0 i defi ed f he a e e i d [0, 6], he ea 1, , 11 a e defi ed f he b e e e e e ee . T i e a 1 f b e a i i 2020, a d 0 f b e a i i 2019. The e e da e i defi ed a Jan a 23, 2020, he ea he e en da e fo 2019 i defined a Feb a 3, 2019. We cla if ci ie in o h ee g o p ba ed on e cile of e ice ind concen a ion and e po dependence, he ea e ice ind concen a ion i defi ed a he ha e f ci e ia ind GDP among i o al GDP in 2017, e po dependence i defi ed a he ha e f ci a e a g i o al GDP in 2017. GDP, e ia ind GDP and e po ade da a a e ob ained f om CEIC da aba e. The b e i e di a he e ce age cha ge f dai ff i e c i , i h haded a ea i dica i g 95% c fide ce i e a .
P A:
P B:
33 1: S S D O C
N : The a a i ic a e ca c a ed f dai ff i e c i f a ci ie i he a e (RMB, i i i ). The e e da e 0 i defi ed a Jan a 23, 2020 ( he da e hen W han lockdo n a implemen ed), he ea he e en da e 0 fo 2019 i defined a Feb a 3, 2019. The p e-pe iod i defined a [-22, -1], he ea he - e i d i defi ed a [0, 82], acc di g he e e da e 0. P ea e efe Tab e A1 f de ai ed c a ifica i f c i e a d ca eg ie . *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Panel A: 2019 Sa e (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Ob . Mean p10 p25 p50 p75 p90 All 22,470 75.23 8.41 16.30 32.62 74.53 281.00 p e: [-22, -1] 4,708 89.89 11.95 21.58 42.28 95.63 320.91 po : [0,82] 17,762 71.35 7.72 15.18 30.44 69.56 270.47
Panel B: 2020 Sa e (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Ob . Mean p10 p25 p50 p75 p90 All 22,470 33.64 2.41 5.27 12.89 31.20 130.85 p e: [-22, -1] 4,708 63.41 7.75 14.55 27.63 66.06 241.80 po : [0,82] 17,762 25.74 2.05 4.34 10.19 24.11 96.80
Panel C: Mea d ffe e ce f c - e e ff e c 2019 2020 (1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) p e po po -p e p e po po -p e All 89.89 71.35 -18.55*** 63.41 25.74 -37.67*** T e: G d 60.67 49.62 -11.05*** 41.20 17.47 -23.73*** Se ice 29.23 21.73 -7.50*** 22.21 8.27 -13.94*** Ca eg : Dai ece i ie 5.91 3.67 -2.24*** 5.64 2.23 -3.41*** Di c e i a i e 11.96 7.51 -4.45*** 9.62 2.76 -6.86*** D ab e g d 42.79 38.44 -4.36** 25.94 12.48 -13.46*** Di i g & E e ai . 2.54 2.24 -0.30*** 2.61 0.56 -2.04*** T a e - e a ed 2.36 2.21 -0.15*** 2.78 0.83 -1.95*** O he 24.33 17.28 -7.05*** 16.82 6.88 -9.94***
34 2: I CO ID-19 O C
N : Thi ab e e he eg e i e f he a e age i ac f COVID-19 ff i e c i f a ci ie i he a e. The de e de a iab e i he e di g a ( e di g a i i i RMB) e di g a di ided b e- e i d a e age e di g f each ci , a d a dai c i da a a e i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . The d a iab e i defi ed a 1 f b e a i i 2020, a d 0 he i e. i defi ed a 1 f he e i d [0, 82], a d he i e 0. The e e da e 0 i defi ed a Jan a 23, 2020, he ea he e en da e 0 fo 2019 i defined a Feb a 3, 2019. Panel A incl de he fi ed effec fo ci , di ance o Chine e Ne Yea (CNY) and da of eek. In Panel B, he ea - ea fi ed effec i addi ionall con olled. P ea e efe Tab e A1 f de ai ed c a ifica i f c i e a d ca eg ie . S anda d e o epo ed in pa en he e a e cl e ed a he ci le el. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Panel A: de e de a ab e Spending am (1) (2) (3) All Good Se ice
ea * -18.57*** -12.47*** -6.16*** (3.23) (2.27) (1.20) ea -26.63*** -19.37*** -7.15*** (3.58) (3.25) (1.17) Con an 74.94*** 51.66*** 23.18*** (2.89) (2.39) (0.69)
Ob e a ion 44,940 44,940 44,940 R- a ed 0.72 0.71 0.67
Panel B: de e de a ab e Spending am /p e-pe iod a e age (1) (2) (3) All Good Se ice
ea * -0.32*** -0.33*** -0.34*** (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) Con an 0.81*** 0.82*** 0.81*** (0.00) (0.01) (0.00)
Ob e a ion 44,940 44,940 44,940 R- a ed 0.57 0.48 0.50
35 3: I O C : B D C
N : Thi ab e e he eg e i e f he a e age i ac f COVID-19 ff i e c i f a ci ie i he a e. The de e de a iab e i he e di g a b ca eg di ided b e- e i d a e age ca eg e di g f each ci , a d a dai c i da a a e i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . The d a iab e i defi ed a 1 f b e a i i 2020, a d 0 he i e. i defi ed a 1 f he - e i d [0,82], a d 0 he i e. The e e da e 0 i defi ed a Jan a 23, 2020 ( he da e hen W han lockdo n a implemen ed), he ea he e en da e 0 fo 2019 i defined a Feb a 3, 2019. Fi ed effec fo ci , ea - ea , di ance o Chine e Ne Yea (CNY), and da of eek a e incl ded. P ea e efe Tab e A1 f de ai ed c a ifica i f c i e a d ca eg ie . S anda d e o epo ed in pa en he e a e cl e ed a he ci le el. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Spending am b ca ego /p e-pe iod a e age ca ego pending a e age (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Dai Di c e i a D ab e Di i g & T a e - e a ed O he ece i ie i e g d E e ai .
ea * -0.15*** -0.29*** -0.35*** -0.64*** -0.59*** -0.25*** (0.03) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) Con an 0.69*** 0.69*** 0.90*** 0.88*** 0.94*** 0.79*** (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
Ob e a ion 44,940 44,940 44,940 44,940 44,940 44,940 R- a ed 0.44 0.66 0.34 0.63 0.65 0.43
36 4: I O C : C -C E
N : Thi ab e e he eg e i e f he a e age i ac f COVID-19 ff i e c i f a ci ie i he a e. The de e de a iab e i he e di g a di ided b e- e i d a e age e di g f each ci , a d a dai c i da a a e i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . F eg e i e e ed i c (1) a d (3), e i c de a ci e i he a e, he ea f c (2), W ha ci i e c ded. The d a iab e i defi ed a 1 f b e a i i 2020, a d 0 he i e. i defi ed a 1 f - e i d [0,82], a d 0 he i e, i h he e e da e 0 defi ed a Jan a 23, 2020 ( he da e hen W han lockdo n a implemen ed), and he e en da e 0 fo 2019 defined a Feb a 3, 2019. W a c i defined a 1 fo W han. T 20 W a f c e i defined a 1 fo he op 20 ci ie ecei ing mig an f om W han be een Ja a 10 a d Ja a 24 f 2020 acc di g he Baid ig a i i de (i c di g Bei i g, Cha g ha, Ch g i g, E h , G a g h , H a gga g, H a g hi, Ji g e , Ji g h , Na a g, Sha ghai, She he , Shi a , S i h , Xia i g, Xia g a g, Xia ga g, Xi a g, Yicha g, Zhe g h ). C 0 COVID-19 ca e i defined a 1 fo ci ie i ho confi med COVID-19 ca e (e c di g a a ic ca e ) a of Ap il 13, 2020. COVID-19 ca e e ca a i defined a he o al COVID-19 ca e (e c di g a a ic ca e ) pe 10,000 ban pop la ion a Ap il 13, 2020. SIC i defined a 1 fo ci ie ho e e ice ind concen a ion anked a he ppe hi d, ED i defined a 1 fo ci ie ho e e po dependence anked a he ppe hi d. Se ice ind concen a ion i defined a he ha e f ci e ia ind GDP among i o al GDP in 2017, e po dependence i defined a he ha e of ci a e a g i a GDP i 2017. GDP, e ia ind GDP and e po ade da a a e ob ained f om CEIC da aba e. Fi ed effec f ci , ea - ea , di ance o Chine e Ne Yea (CNY), and da of eek a e incl ded. S anda d e o epo ed in pa en he e a e cl e ed a he ci le el. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Spending am /p e-pe iod a e age (1) (2) (3) (4)
ea * -0.32*** -0.31*** -0.32*** -0.34*** (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) ea * *W a c -0.38*** (0.01) ea * *T 20 W a f c e -0.11*** (0.02) ea * *C 0 COVID-19 ca e 0.12*** (0.04) ea * * g(1+COVID-19 ca e e ca a) -0.03*** (0.00) ea * *SIC -0.03** (0.01) ea * *ED -0.06*** (0.02) Con an 0.81*** 0.81*** 0.81*** 0.81*** (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
Ob e a ion 44,940 44,730 44,940 43,260 R- a ed 0.58 0.58 0.57 0.58
37 5: I O C : -C I
N : Thi ab e e he eg e i e f he a e age i ac f COVID-19 ff i e c i f a ci ie i he a e. The de e de a iab e i he e di g a di ided b e- e i d a e age e di g f each ci , a d a dai c i da a a e i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . The d a iab e i defi ed a 1 f b e a i i 2020, a d 0 he i e. i defi ed a 1 f - e i d [0,82], a d 0 he i e, i h he e e da e 0 defi ed a Jan a 23, 2020 ( he da e hen he W han lockdo n a implemen ed). e ca e i he one-da lagged n mbe of ne l confi med ca e (e c di g a a ic ca e ). PTB i defined a 1 if he ci PTB i among he op 30 on hi da e, and 0 o he i e. dea i he one-da lagged n mbe of dea h . Fi ed effec fo ci , ea - ea , di ance o Chine e Ne Yea (CNY), and da of eek a e incl ded. S anda d e o epo ed in pa en he e a e cl e ed a he ci le el. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Spending am /p e-pe iod a e age (1) (2) (3)
ea * -0.30*** -0.31*** -0.31*** (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) ea * * g(1+ e ca e) -0.07*** (0.01) ea * *PTB -0.05*** (0.02) ea * * g(1+dea ) -0.03*** (0.01) Con an 0.81*** 0.81*** 0.81*** (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
Ob e a ion 44,921 44,940 44,940 R- a ed 0.58 0.58 0.58
38
IN ERNE APPENDI
NO FOR P BLICA ION
39
N N
40
F A1: E H : CO ID-19 C : Thi fig e e e ge g a hic di ib i f h ee ea e f ci e e COVID-19: e ce age f W ha ig a i f f f W ha ig a i f e ce age COVID-19: e e ci ea e h ee f di ib i f ge g a hic e e fig e : Thi N he a 2020, a d he e i d f h i a i bed 100 ca e e ac i e f he be a e age ce: (da aBaid ), 24 Ja a 10 Ja a a dea h COVID-19 f 2014. A i 13, ca e ca e ca e a ea defi ed ac i e The dea h . ec e ed I a d hec fi ed i ege d, c e age. da a he c e di g he ci ie i h i dica e F A2: D O C R : E D D P H E L
N : Thi fig e e ea he d a ic ff i e c i e e i Fig e 3 b e ic i g he a e e i d bef e ci ie d g aded f he highe e e f b ic hea h e e ge c a e a d e e i Chi a b ic hea h a age e e . The haded a ea i dica e 95% c fide ce i e a . T a # f CO ID-19 i he a COVID-19 ca e (e c di g a a ic ca e ) a he e d f he e e ee .
41 F A3: D D O C R A 2020
N : Thi fig e e e he dai d a ic ff i e c i e e i A i . Pe ce age cha ge i dai ff i e c i a e he eg e i c efficie e i a ed f he diffe e ce-i -diffe e ce eg e i e f d a iab e , 0, 1, , 23, i e ac i g i h he d a iab e, a d a dai c i da a a e i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . The d a iab e 0 i defi ed f he a e e i d [0, 6], he ea 1, , 9 a e defi ed f he b e e i e ee , a d 10, 11, , 23 a e defi ed f da d i g he a ee . The fig e h he dai c efficie f A i . T i e a 1 f b e a i i 2020, a d 0 f b e a i i 2019. The e e da e i defi ed a Jan a 23, 2020, he ea he e en da e fo 2019 i defined a Feb a 3, 2019. The b e i e di a he e ce age cha ge f dai ff i e c i , i h haded a ea i dica i g 95% c fide ce i e a . The g ee i e h he e i f e-da agged be f e ca e (i c di g a a ic ca e ).
42 F A4: O C C : S C
N : Thi fig e di a he e i a ed d a ic ff i e c i cha ge f fi e ci ie : W ha , Bei i g, Sha ghai, She he , a d G a g h . Pe ce age cha ge i dai ff i e c i i eg e i c efficie e i a ed f he diffe e ce-i -diffe e ce eg e i e e d a iab e , 0, 1, , 11, i e ac i g i h he d a iab e a d 214 ci d ie , a d a dai c i da a a e i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . The d a iab e 0 i defi ed f he a e e i d [0, 6] af e he e e da e, he ea 1, , 11 a e defi ed f he b e e e e e ee af e he e e da e. T i e a 1 f b e a i i 2020, a d 0 f b e a i i 2019. The e e da e i defi ed a Jan a 23, 2020, he ea he e e da e f 2019 i defi ed a Feb a 3, 2019, e da bef e he 2019 Chi e e Ne Yea E e. The b e i e di a he e ce age cha ge f dai ff i e c i , i h haded a ea i dica i g 95% c fide ce i e a . T a # f CO ID-19 i he ci a COVID-19 ca e (e c di g a a ic ca e ) a he e d f each e e ee .
Panel A: W han
43 P B: S
44 A1: C C C
T e Ca eg ie MCC Ca eg F i e & h e f i hi g H e a ia ce D ab e g d E ec ic Ca - e a ed g d H i g- e a ed g d G ce G d Dai ece i ie H eh d i e A a e Sh e Di c e i a i e Bea Acce ie O he g d Di e Di i g & E e ai e E e ai e T a e Se ice T a e - e a ed T a a i O he a a i e ice O he O he e ice
45 A2: S S C C
N : Thi ab e e he a a i ic f ci cha ac e i ic a iab e . The d a iab e T 20 W a f c e i defined a 1 fo he op 20 ci ie ecei ing mig an f om W han be een Ja a 10 a d Ja a 24 f 2020 acc di g he Baid ig a i i de (i c di g Bei i g, Cha g ha, Ch g i g, E h , G a g h , H a gga g, H a g hi, Ji g e , Ji g h , Na a g, Sha ghai, She he , Shi a , S i h , Xia i g, Xia g a g, Xia ga g, Xi a g, Yicha g, Zhe g h ). The d a iab e C 0 COVID-19 ca e i defined a 1 fo ci ie i ho confi med COVID-19 ca e (e c di g a a ic ca e ) fo he hole po pe iod. T a # f COVID-19 ca e i he n mbe of o al ca e (e c di g a a ic ca e ) a of Ap il 13, 2020. A e age PTB i defined a he a e age lagged n mbe of ac i e ca e pe 100 ho pi al bed o e he po -pe iod, he e he ac i e ca e a e defi ed a confi med ca e af e b ac ing ec e ed ca e a d dea h . T a # f COVID-19 dea i o al COVID-19 dea h oll a of Ap il 13, 2020. All mma a i ic a e calc la ed ing he ob e a ion of 214 ci ie in he po -pe iod of 2020 onl .
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Ob . Mean p10 p25 p50 p75 p90 T 20 W a f c e 213 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 C 0 COVID-19 ca e 214 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 T a # f COVID-19 ca e 214 367.53 6.00 12.00 32.00 76.00 836.00 A e age PTB 214 0.22 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.92 T a # f COVID-19 dea 214 15.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 15.00
46 A3: O . O R : E 30 C
N : Thi ab e e he diffe e ce-i -diffe e ce eg e i e c a i g he i ac i e c i e a i e ff i e c i i 2020, f he a e f he 30 ci ie a ed b he 2018 GDP (i c di g Bei i g, Cha gch , Cha g ha, Cha g h , Che gd , Ch g i g, Da ia , D gg a , F ha , F h , G a g h , Ha g h , Hefei, Ji a , Na i g, Na g, Ni gb , Qi gda , Q a h , Sha ghai, She he , S h , Ta g ha , Tia i , W i, W ha , Xi a , X h , Ya ai, Zhe g h ) i he a e. (N e ha he diff-i -diff e i a e f e a i (1) f he e 30 ci ie i -0.44.) The de e de a iab e i he e di g a (S e di g a ) di ided b he 2020 e- e i d a e age e di g f each ci , a d a dai c i da a a e i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . The d a iab e i defi ed a 1 f i e c i i 2020, a d 0 f ff i e c i . i defi ed a 1 f - e i d [0,82], a d 0 he i e. The e e da e 0 i defi ed a Jan a 23, 2020 ( he da e hen W han lockdo n a implemen ed). Fi ed effec fo ci fi ed effec , ea , di ance o Chine e Ne Yea (CNY), and da of eek a e incl ded. S anda d e o epo ed in pa en he e a e cl e ed a he ci le el. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
(1) Spending am /p e-pe iod a e age
ea * 0.31*** (0.07) Con an 0.53*** (0.03)
Ob e a ion 6,300 R- a ed 0.55
47 A4: -C I : A R
N : Thi ab e e addi i a b e chec he i hi -ci i e i he e ge ei e . Pa e A e he e b e c di g W ha f he a e, a d Pa e B e e he e b f he c i g f ic e bi i - e ic i ea e ha e e i e e ed i he ci ie i he a e e i d. The de e de a iab e i he e di g a di ided b e- e i d a e age e di g f each ci , a d a dai c i da a a e i i ed a he 1 a d 99 h e ce i e e e he effec f ie . The d a iab e i defi ed a 1 f b e a i i 2020, a d 0 he i e. i defi ed a 1 f - e i d [0,82], a d 0 he i e. The e e da e 0 i defi ed a Jan a 23, 2020 ( he da e hen W han lockdo n a implemen ed), he ea he e en da e 0 fo 2019 i defined a Feb a 3, 2019. e ca e i he lagged n mbe of ne l confi med ca e (e c di g a a ic ca e ). PTB i defined a 1 if he ci PTB i among he op 30 on hi da e, and 0 o he i e. dea i he one- da lagged n mbe of dea h . S c i defined a 1 ince he ci begin o implemen ic e mobili - e ic ion mea e . Fi ed effec fo ci , ea - ea , di ance o Chine e Ne Yea (CNY), and da of eek a e incl ded. S anda d e o epo ed in pa en he e a e cl e ed a he ci le el. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Panel A: e c de W a c Spending am /p e-pe iod a e age (1) (2) (3)
ea * -0.29*** -0.31*** -0.31*** (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) ea * * g(1+ e ca e) -0.07*** (0.01) ea * *PTB -0.05** (0.02) ea * * g(1+dea ) -0.03*** (0.01) Con an 0.81*** 0.81*** 0.81*** (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
Ob e a ion 44,711 44,730 44,730 R- a ed 0.58 0.57 0.57
48 Panel B: C g f c e b - e c ea e Spending am /p e-pe iod a e age (1) (2) (3) (4)
ea * -0.30*** -0.28*** -0.30*** -0.30*** (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) ea * * g(1+ e ca e) -0.07*** (0.01) ea * *PTB -0.03* (0.02) ea * * g(1+dea ) -0.02*** (0.01) ea * * c -0.08*** -0.06*** -0.07*** -0.06*** (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Con an 0.81*** 0.81*** 0.81*** 0.81*** (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
Ob e a ion 44,940 44,921 44,940 44,940 R- a ed 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58
49