A Renaissance lies ahead The automotive case
Patrick Oliva, Corporate Vice President EIT seminar, Madrid,16th March 2009
Page 1 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 NowadaysNowadays
• >800 million vehicles • 6.6 billion inhabitants (2 out of 5 live in China and India) • 50% of the population is urban
• 24% of CO2 emissions and 60% of fuel use are transport-related
Page 2 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 20502050 • >>1,500 million vehicles? • 9 billion inhabitants? • 70% of the population is urban?
• >30% of CO2 emissions and >75% of oil uses are transport-related?
Page 3 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 GHG emissions: transportation plays a significant role 9,80% Road transportation 2,80% 3,30% 17,40% Other transport
Energy supply
Industry
25,90% Private and commercial 13,50% buildings Agriculture
Lumbering 19,40% Waste and waste water
Page 4 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 CO2 emissions: transportation plays a critical role
18% 5% Road transportation 8% Other transport
6% 18% Energy and heat supply
Industry and civil engineering Residential
45% Other
Page 5 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Transport CO2 emissions forecast (WBCSD)
Page 6 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Road transport must cut CO2 emissions by 50%
Page 7 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 A conviction to share z 2050 – Over 70% of the population is urban, predominantly Asian and emits half of the current CO2: this world is significantly different from ours, particularly in terms of transportation. z This world must be invented very soon (by 2015?); it is vital for the automotive industry…and for each of us.
Page 8 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Four messages to policy makers z 1/ Road transport must play a leadership role to help reach the global objective of 50% less CO2 by 2050. Procrastination would be dramatic for society at large and for the automotive industry. z 2/ Reducing energy consumption of cars by 50% is feasible with existing state-of-the-art technologies. z 3/ Electric vehicles can be made technically and economically viable, particularly in a rapidly urbanizing environment. It is time for road transport to stop depending solely on oil. z 4/ Governments and industry must “have the guts” to provoke the necessary disruptions.
Page 9 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Around three-quarters of the projected increase in oil demand comes from transportation, the sector least-responsive to price changes (IEA - WEO 2008)
800 Rest of world
Mtoe Other Asia 600 India China OECD 400
200
0
-200 Transport Industry Non-energy Other use
Page 10 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 « The cheap oil era is over » Nobuo Tanaka, IEA Executive Director
« By design or by shock, our economy will become decarbonized » Achim Steiner, UNEP Executive Director
Page 11 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Let’s be clear about it: Road mobility as we know it is NOT sustainable and the solutions contemplated so far are not commensurate with the criticality of what is at stake. 6 issues need to be addressed simultaneously:
Congestion GHG emissions Cost of Urban pollution transportation
Page 12 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar,Road Madrid – 16 March(un)safety 2009 Oil dependency Good news ! We are not in a dead end.
The last edition of Challenge Bibendum has confirmed it: reducing vehicle energy consumption by 50% is achievable. Reducing CO2 emissions by more than 50% is also achievable. Page 13 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Food for thought
z Less than 30g CO2/km in z 71g CO2/km on the the last Monte Carlo rally Shanghai roads with with a Michelin a modified Logan ! demonstrator !
Page 14 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Food for thought: an integrated vision of modern, clean mobility!
Exhaust: Water Storage Water Sun rays up to Oxygen Electric 300 bars Current Hydrogen Storage Fuel cell Photovoltai Electrolysis + Electric drive up to c pannels Compression vehicle 300 bars 55m² 20.000km/year
Page 15 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Worldwide comparison of well to wheel CO2 emissions per km driven with a battery powered car (15 kWh or 25 kWh/100 km) and ICE powered cars using oil-derived fuels 350
300
250
200 /km 2 m 0 k /10 150 Wh g CO k 25
100 km 100 Wh/ 15 k
50
0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 g CO2/kWh
Page 16 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Why so much energy consumption?
Vehicle Inertia (M)
FI Aerodynamic drag (ACd,S)
FA Fv Fv
FV Vehicle internal losses
Rolling resistance (M,S) FRR FRR 1- to overcome (often excessive) resistances 2- because engine efficiency is not terribly good (<30%) … and even pretty bad in urban conditions!
Page 17 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Some common sense solutions
z Optimizing aerodynamics z Choosing the right tires z Working on mass z Adapting the vehicle to its purpose z Adapting GMP to urban reality
Page 18 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Sub-systems for mobility (EVs / HEVs)
Chassis control Active Wheels Auxiliary Power Solutions (batteries/ supercapacitors)
Fuel cell Sub-systems
Gas storage
Electric motors Power electronics
Page 19 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Michelin Active Wheels
Electrical drive motor Electrical suspension motor
Spring
Brake caliper In-wheel active Brake disk suspension
Page 20 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Would you buy or lease such an EV?
5 seats, L: 3,74m Heuliez « WILL » 0-100 km/h : 12s Autonomy: 150km to 400km Mass: 1000kg Max speed: 140km/h High speed internet connection: WIFI, 3G+, machine-to-machine communication
Page 21 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 EVs should achieve cost parity with advanced ICEs well before 2020 !
Page 22 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Venturi Volage 2 seats Max speed: 150km/h 4 motorized wheels E-braking: 50kW 0-100 km/h : <5s Autonomy: 300km
Page 23 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 In the face of today’s challenges, procrastinating in terms of innovation will lead to price wars, consumer weariness, legal interventions!
Page 24 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Challenge Bibendum Rio: May 30 – June 2, 2010
It is still possible to dream
Page 25 / Patrick Olivaabout - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009cars and tires!!! Thank you !
Page 26 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Annex
Page 27 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 In the next 25 years, the global trends are expected to be (1) z continued dominance of ICEs and liquid hydrocarbon fuels (with enhanced combustion efficiency, exhaust gas treatment and fuel evolutions)
Page 28 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Reducing ICE park CO2 emissions z Reducing consumption: z Engine efficiency: from 30% to 40% z Cylinder reduction z Vehicular mass reduction z Aerodynamic, tire and internal friction optimization z (in cities) benefiting from hybrid technology, z Evolution of the vehicle mix, z Reduced use? z Diversifying fuel sources (+engine multi-fuel technologies) z Bio-fuels z Natural gas z Hydrogen, synthetic fuels (GTL + CTL)
Page 29 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 In the next 25 years, the global trends must be (2) z dynamic market penetration of hybrid vehicles (featuring various degrees of hybridization) and electric vehicles. z ZEV mode development
Page 30 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 In the next 25 years, the global trends are expected to be (3) z significant development of: zcombined active and passive safety systems, zcar-to-car and car-to-infrastructure communication, zITS technologies to enable (in particular), cars to be both lighter and safer.
Page 31 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Energy management principles 110 kW max
Li-ion DC/DC Motor Electric batteries power converter inverters motors
Page 32 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009 Cost? Status?
z Total cost of ownership after 5 years: better than with conventional cars z Unrivaled comfort due to electric drive and electric suspension z Unmatched road handling performance and safety z Exceptional torque and acceleration z Unprecedented interior space z Big step into modernity
Page 33 / Patrick Oliva - EIT Seminar, Madrid – 16 March 2009