Bibi and the Wolf” - by Ben Caspit

Israel and Middle East News Update

Thursday, December 24

Headlines: ● Netanyahu, Gantz Agree to Third National Lockdown ● Blasting PM, Likud Minister Elkin Bolts Party to Join SA'Ar ● Bennett Declares Run for Prime Minister ● PM: Israel Won't Shy Away From Military Action Against Iran ● Russian, Palestinian Leaders Discuss Peace Process ● UAE Steps up Medical Aid to Gaza ● Bahrain Calls to 'End Regional Disputes by Peaceful Means' ● Myanmar Activists Accuse Israeli Firm of Abetting Atrocities

Commentary: ● Yedioth Ahronoth: “Not Just Another Defection’’ - By Yuval Karni

● Ma’ariv: “Bibi and the Wolf” - By Ben Caspit

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts December 24, 2020 I24 News Netanyahu, Gantz Agree to Third National Lockdown Israeli leaders said that a third national lockdown will be imposed Sunday. A statement from Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gantz said the two leaders arrived at the decision amid a dramatic spike in daily virus cases. Israel’s Health Ministry recommend the government reintroduce the nationwide lockdown for 25 days. But media reports suggest that the new closures will last for 14 days. According to news outlet N12, the ministry is pushing for a lockdown in the same format of the one employed in September -- a shutdown of all businesses excluding those deemed essential. The Israeli public will also be expected to limit their movement and be restricted from traveling no more than one 0.62 miles from their homes. See also ‘‘Health Minister: Mutated Coronavirus Strain Already in Israel’’ (Ynet News)

Ynet News Blasting PM, Likud Minister Elkin Bolts Party to Join SA'Ar Likud Higher Education Minister Ze'ev Elkin announced he is leaving to join Gideon Sa'ar's "New Hope" party for the March elections, slamming Netanyahu on his way out. "You have destroyed the Likud," said Elkin, who has been a close ally of Netanyahu. Sa'ar called Elkin a man of integrity and said he would be his second in command. Elkin said he was making the move with a heavy heart but with confidence that this was the right and responsible thing to do. Elkin said the Likud had become a cult of personality, a Byzantine court with people pandering to the leader out of fear. Elkin blamed Netanyahu for burdening the country with a fourth election cycle in two years. The Likud issued a statement slamming Elkin for playing politics while the Netanyahu was leading a national response to the pandemic. See also ‘‘Warning the Public Against Netanyahu, a Defecting Confidant Lands a Heavy Blow’’ (Times of Israel)

Arutz Sheva Bennett Declares Run for Prime Minister Yamina Chair Naftali Bennett announced that he intends to run for prime minister. "At the end of March, at the height of the first wave, I submitted a plan to Netanyahu to fight the coronavirus without paralyzing the economy so that we would not have to impose lockdowns all the time. Netanyahu chose to shelve the plan, his motives with him and we were dragged into the lockdown concept," Bennett said. "Netanyahu has many merits, but in the moment of truth when we needed him most, he was simply not there. We must thank him for his years of service, but we must move on. This is also not the time for more parties to rise just to say 'who is not' instead of charting a path of 'what is.' He added his government would focus on "gaining control over COVID, rebuilding livelihoods, and uniting the nation." See also ‘‘New Study Shows Israel Leads All Democracies in Most Elections Held Since 1996’’ (Ynet News)

2 Jerusalem Post PM: Israel Won't Shy Away From Military Action Against Iran Prime Minister Netanyahu hinted that Israel would not shy away from military action against Iran when he spoke at the graduation ceremony for new IAF pilots. “We will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu said. We do not take lightly the threats made against us, nor do we shy away from them,” he added. “Our policy is clear and consistent: whoever tries to harm us will suffer a crushing blow. He promised that Israel would stand firm against Iran’s nuclear program and its entrenchment in Syria. “We will continue to act against attempts by Iran and its proxies to establish military bases in Syria. We will not compromise on this issue,” he said. Nor will Israel compromise on the steps needed to prevent it enemies from developing precision missiles and placing them in Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere, Netanyahu said. See also ‘‘Election Brings Netanyahu and Trump’s Mideast Peacemaking to a Screeching Halt’’ (Jerusalem Post)

Al-Monitor Russian, Palestinian Leaders Discuss Peace Process Russian President Putin and Palestinian Authority (PA) President Abbas spoke by phone to discuss the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Kremlin said in a press release. On the call, Putin told Abbas that Russia is willing to act as a mediator between Israel and the PA in its role as a member of the Middle East Quartet. The Quartet refers to the US, Russia, the EU, and the UN. The group has acted as an intermediary on Israeli-Palestinian peace talks in the past. Israel and the State of Palestine, as the PA is also known, have not held peace negotiations for several years. In October, the PA’s permanent observer to the UN, Riyad Mansour, told Al-Monitor that he was optimistic about a peace conference taking place in early 2021. In December, the director general of Israel’s Foreign Ministry, Alon Ushpiz, said at an Al-Monitor event that Israel is ready for direct talks with the PA at any time without preconditions. Russia has recently tried to revive the Quartet, which was more active in the past. See also ‘‘In First, Exports to U.S. From Settlements Will Now Be Labeled 'Product of Israel'’ (Ha’aretz)

Al-Monitor UAE Steps up Medical Aid to Gaza The health system in the Gaza Strip is on the verge of collapse amid the outbreak of the coronavirus and the disappearance of dozens of medications from the warehouses of the Ministry of Health. In this context, health officials are calling on the world to provide urgent support to prevent the health system’s collapse and save the lives of those in need of health care. The UAE was the most recent country to offer support to Gaza. It sent a cargo aircraft loaded with 14.4 tons of medical supplies. The aircraft landed at Cairo International Airport, and the supplies were transported by land to the Gaza Strip. The Islamic National Commission for Development and Social Solidarity — a group that includes most Palestinian factions, including Hamas and the wing of defected Fatah leader Mohammed Dahlan — received the shipment and delivered the supplies to the Ministry of Health. The UAE medical supply shipment is the third to the Palestinian territories since May. See also ‘‘Hamas Walks Back 'Christmas Ban' in Gaza After Uproar’’ (Al-Monitor)

3 I24 News Bahrain Calls to 'End Regional Disputes by Peaceful Means' Bahrain called for an end to regional disputes, the latest statement suggesting a rift between Qatar and four countries could ease ahead of a Gulf summit next month. Manama's Supreme Defense Council, led by King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa, convened and declared a need "to end regional conflicts and disputes by peaceful means," according to the official Bahrain News Agency (BNA). Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt cut ties with and initiated an economic blockade against Qatar in 2017, saying it was too close to Iran and funding radical Islamist movements -- charges Doha denies. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) -- comprised of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar -- will meet on January 5 in Saudi Arabia. The softened rhetoric surrounding the three-year dispute comes amid Riyadh-led efforts to resolve the crisis. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said a resolution was in sight, with the four governments behind the blockade "on board" and a final agreement expected soon. US Senior Advisor Jared Kushner had traveled to Qatar in late November in a bid to settle the ongoing dispute between the Gulf states. See also ‘‘US Could Increase Indonesia Aid by up to $2 Billion if It Normalized Ties with Israel’’ (I24 News)

Times of Israel Myanmar Activists Accuse Israeli Firm of Abetting Atrocities A Myanmar human rights group has accused a publicly traded Israeli company, Gilat Satellite Networks, of selling its technology to Myanmar’s military, saying in a report that Gilat is complicit in the regime’s alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. The report, which seeks to name and shame global businesses that it claims have transacted with Mytel, a Myanmar mobile network part- owned by the Myanmar military, was published on the website of the Justice for Myanmar advocacy group. Myanmar’s government and military have been accused of carrying out a brutal campaign of ethnic cleansing and genocide against the Rohingya Muslim minority, killing thousands of people and sending over 700,000 fleeing into neighboring Bangladesh. A UN commission has recommended genocide and war crimes charges against top Myanmar military leaders. The report includes allegations regarding business deals made by Petah Tikva-based Gilat that predate a September 2017 Israeli High Court decision to stop all military exports to Myanmar. See also ‘‘Coptic Christians in Egypt Say They Can’t Get Justice’’ (Jerusalem Post)

4 Yedioth Ahronoth – December 24, 2020 Not Just Another Defection By Yuval Karni ● Gideon Saar has had the greatest impact on the upcoming election so far. Two weeks ago, Saar dramatically quit the Likud and formed a new party; he announced that he was running for prime minister and within days became the candidate to pose as the greatest threat to the Likud and Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc in a decade. It is no wonder that Netanyahu personally intervened on Monday to try to postpone the end of the 23rd Knesset and to avert elections at the last moment. ● Netanyahu realizes that without Saar and without Bennett he doesn’t have a right-wing government; he also knows that he can’t count on either of them. Is the fortress on Balfour Street quaking? This time, the danger to the right-wing government is from the right wing, not the left wing. What Gideon Saar did in 2020 resembles what Ariel Sharon did in 2005, when he left the Likud and established Kadima. The comparison does Saar an injustice: Sharon dismantled the Likud when Netanyahu was weak and politically battered. Saar is trying to dismantle the Likud at a time that Netanyahu is one of the strongest prime ministers Israel has ever had. Nonetheless, brick by brick, Saar has succeeded at hurting the Likud and has been poaching its MKs to join his new party. ● It’s hard to overstate the importance of Zeev Elkin’s resignation [and his decision to join Saar]. This is the most significant step taken by Saar against his former party. Elkin is neither a vote magnet nor is he charismatic, but he was the engine behind many of the Likud’s political machinations and was one of Netanyahu’s closest advisers. Netanyahu considers Elkin and Yariv Levin to be skilled chess players. Both of them ran Netanyahu’s coalitions wisely and oversaw coalition talks during times of crisis. Elkin did not make the customary resignation speech. His was a political and public indictment against Netanyahu, striking at his soft underbelly. Netanyahu’s political enemies are used to attacking him powerfully. But when an attack like that comes from one of the people closest to you, someone who is familiar with all your tricks and shticks (and perhaps was partner to them), things take on a different meaning. ● “I have increasingly felt that your personal considerations and the whims of your close inner circle have played an increasingly more central role in the process of making decisions, the impact of which is often critical for the State of Israel and its citizens. As someone who has watched that dangerous process from up close, I am increasingly worried, and my confidence in you and your intentions has become increasingly cracked. The personal consideration has become mixed in with the national consideration and has increasingly come to supersede it.” In the last three elections, Netanyahu was able to keep his right wing-Haredi bloc iron-clad. Nobody in the Likud disputed his leadership. Netanyahu is starting this next election on the wrong foot: he is without his bloc and following a rift in the Likud. The fourth election is shaping up to be a completely different story.

5 Ma’ariv – December 24, 2020 Bibi and the Wolf By Ben Caspit ● [Regarding the headline—zeev means wolf in Hebrew]. It is hard to imagine a cluster bomb more lethal than the one that was tossed yesterday into the empty shell of what has remained of the Likud Party. Zeev Elkin, one of the two most adept parliamentarians in the Likud (the second is Yariv Levin), one of the closest of close confidants and pot- stirrers ever, yesterday gave Netanyahu an executive summary of the accusations that have been leveled against him on these pages [i.e. in Ben Caspit’s articles] and in many other places in recent years. Had Gideon Saar snuck up onto the residential floor on Balfour Street in the dead of night to steal the Netanyahus’ bed away from them— that would still be less dramatic that what happened last night. ● Zeev Elkin, who has been an MK for 15 years and who served in the past as the Likud Bureau chief and a member of the security cabinet, the man who attended, as the most intimate partner, all of the meetings that were held with Vladimir Putin, the secret-bearer who assembled coalitions on Netanyahu’s behalf and took apart his adversaries— overturned the table and walked out. He’s Orthodox and he’s a settler; let’s see them paint him as a leftist. His departure is a political earthquake, but it isn’t powerful enough to bring the fortress tumbling down. The cracks are widening, the people hunkering down inside are feeling rattled, but the fortress still stands. Elkin is a game-changer not because he is the one who played the winning move in the game, but because he proved that it’s all a game. ● With that move yesterday, Saar temporarily knocked down two rivals: Netanyahu, who knows better than everyone just how great the damage that has been done and the enormity of the loss, and Naftali Bennett, who had pinned huge hopes on the impact of his announcement yesterday that he was running for prime minister only to find himself turned into yesterday’s news within a quarter of an hour. Incidentally, people in Saar’s inner circle firmly denied that the timing of Elkin’s public statement (which had been prerecorded and contained a sentence that was said twice) was chosen to embarrass Bennett. To the contrary, they said that the timing had been planned for the day after the Knesset’s dissolution—to wit, yesterday. Once they learned that Bennett intended to make a public statement, they postponed Elkin’s statement to come after his, so as not to interfere. Very gentlemanlike, at least until it comes to Netanyahu. ● I’m afraid even to imagine the scene yesterday evening on the unstable residential floor [of the Prime Minister’s Residence], which is the source of the demons that have the governing party and its client state in their grip. The suspiciousness and paranoia, which existed there in industrial quantities to begin with, must have reached new peaks last night. Until the Likud’s list for the next Knesset is formally submitted and finalized, Netanyahu will walk among his midgets in fear and on edge. Who is going to be next? Who is going to make an unexpected appearance on the prime-time news programs to continue to talk about the royal family? Will it be Avi Dichter, who has had a bellyful for a long time? Will the exiled Gilad Erdan be recalled to the homeland? 6 ● Where is the next blow going to fall? Spoiler: Saar was asked about that by one of his close associates. “I’m not sure that there is anyone there [i.e. within the Likud] worth fighting for,” he said. Zeev Elkin is another name in a long list of loyal, talented, skilled, seasoned people who either fled or were forced out as a result of that same disaster zone that is otherwise known as the residential floor in the Prime Minister’s Residence. When he spoke yesterday about “Netanyahu’s inner circle,” he was talking about a very specific inner circle, one that was recently convicted of a crime [Sara Netanyahu]. ● People who routinely read this column know how it works. Think of it as if all of the Likud’s publicly-elected officials have to carry a card. One mark on the card is a warning, which means that their advancement in the party either is suspended or, in some cases, they are demoted. A second mark on the card means that they have just been summoned to a hearing before being killed off. The person in question then has to prove him or herself every day, from dawn till dusk, to regain the confidence of the divine presence. That may not be possible. A third mark and you’re out. In the best-case scenario, you’re packed off to an embassy. In the less good scenario, you’re simply sent packing. In the worst-case scenario you’re exiled for all of eternity. ● Elkin received the first mark on his card during the coalition negotiations in 2015, which resulted in the reviled Ayelet Shaked being appointed justice minister. The Mistress never forgave him for that. Even though Shaked was made justice minister because of her husband’s failings, the Mistress decided that Elkin had stirred the pot to make it happen. A few embarrassing incidents subsequently ensued, incidents of the kind that none of us would pay any attention to, but she did. Then he was suspected of being friends with Yuli Edelstein (whose standing on the residential floor has also been on the decline). And finally came the one thing that mustn’t ever be said out loud: he was suspected of being Gideon Saar’s friend!!! ● The moment your name gets marked there; you cease to exist. The prime minister doesn’t have the authority to restore the situation to its previous state. God doesn’t have the authority to restore the situation to its previous state. Because if it were up to Binyamin Netanyahu, Bennett and Shaked, Elkin and Saar, Erdan and all the others would have gotten the appointments that truly suited their skillsets, they would have been promoted to jobs that befit their standing, abilities and their ranking in the party based on the internal election results. But that isn’t the prime minister’s decision to make. You’ve read in this column for years and years that that is the way things are and have found that hard to believe. It’s my impression that you’ve recently begun to believe. ● Yes, Elkin should have revealed all of that earlier. It would be even better if all of the others who agree completely with him were to show a bit of spine and were to put an end to the sickening personality cult and the enslavement of an entire country to the mad whims of a [mentally] unstable troika. Having said that, we don’t have a backup country and we’ll have to make do with what we’ve got. Every one of them who is prepared to stop being ashamed of himself and to begin to tell the truth is welcome to step up. The important element in Gideon Saar’s moves in the past two weeks is the momentum.

7 ● It began with his public statement, which was followed up by a series of successful interviews, Yifat Shasha-Biton’s announcement, the blow that he brought down on the prime minister’s head with “Operation Parking Lot,” Michal Shir and Sharren Haskel’s resignation and now Elkin. As I’ve already written before, this is the first time in the current political era in which Binyamin Netanyahu has found himself pitted against a politician in his own league. We haven’t seen a match-up like this in decades. ● The Elkin story pushed to the sidelines Amir Peretz’s announcement that he would not seek reelection as Labor Party chairman (he has demanded to have the second slot on the list reserved for him, from where he hopes to run for president), as well as Naftali Bennett’s announcement that he would be running for prime minister. Bennett, who gained altitude by skillfully and deftly riding on the back of the coronavirus, became complacent. He didn’t see Saar’s move coming, and his decision to postpone his announcement to the latest possible date proved in retrospect to have been a fatal mistake. The vague position that he has taken on Netanyahu isn’t helping him anymore at this stage in the game. He is going to have to make a few hard choices in the near future, and he is going to have to decide what he wants to be when he grows up. If he ever does grow up.