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Planning Parameters and Generation Options Report The World Bank Group & Electricity Control Board of Namibia - National Integrated Resource Plan Planning Parameters and Generation Options Draft Report – 16 July, 2012 The World Bank Group & Electricity Control Board of Namibia National Integrated Resource Plan Planning Parameters and Generation Options Draft Report Prepared by: 16 July , 2012 Anibal Carias, Guangbin Lian Date Approvals Hatch Approved by: 16 July , 2012 Bob Griesbach Date The World Bank Group & Electricity Control Board of Namibia Approved by: Date ISO 9001 H338829-0000-90-124-0004, Rev. A, Page i © Hatch 2012/08 The World Bank Group & Electricity Control Board of Namibia - National Integrated Resource Plan Planning Parameters and Generation Options Draft Report – 16 July, 2012 Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Hatch Ltd. (Hatch) for the sole and exclusive use of The World Bank Group & Electricity Control Board of Namibia (the “Clients” or “WBG & ECB”) for the purpose of assisting the Clients in developing the National Integrated Resource Plan and shall not be (a) used for any other purpose, or (b) provided to, relied upon or used by any third party. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Hatch acknowledges that the Clients may make this report available electronically to interested third parties through internet web access, provided that all such parties shall rely upon this report at their own risk and shall (by virtue of their use of this report) be deemed to have (a) acknowledged that Hatch shall not have any liability to any party other than the Clients in respect of the report and (b) waived and released Hatch from any liability in connection with the report. This report contains opinions, conclusions and recommendations made by Hatch, using its professional judgment and reasonable care. Use of or reliance upon this report by the Clients is subject to the following conditions: i) the report being read in the context of and subject to the terms of the Agreements between Hatch and the Clients dated 24 June, 2011 (the “Agreements”), including any methodologies, procedures, techniques, assumptions and other relevant terms or conditions that were specified or agreed therein; ii) the report being read as a whole, with sections or parts hereof read or relied upon in context; iii) the conditions may change over time (or may have already changed) due to natural forces or human intervention, and Hatch takes no responsibility for the impact that such changes may have on the accuracy or validity or the observations, conclusions and recommendations set out in this report; and iv) the report is based on information made available to Hatch by the Clients or by certain third parties; and unless stated otherwise in the Agreement, Hatch has not verified the accuracy, completeness or validity of such information, makes no representation regarding its accuracy and hereby disclaims any liability in connection therewith. ISO 9001 H338829-0000-90-124-0004, Rev. B , Page ii © Hatch 2012/08 The World Bank Group & Electricity Control Board of Namibia - National Integrated Resource Plan Planning Parameters and Generation Options Draft Report – 16 July, 2012 Table of Contents Disclaimer ....................................................................................................................................... ii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations .......................................................................................... xi 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Purpose of the Planning Parameters and Generation Options Report .................................... 2 1.3 Report Contents ............................................................................................................................................ 3 1.3.1 Report Outline .................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.2 Reference Scope of Work .............................................................................................................. 4 1.4 Information Collection ................................................................................................................................ 5 2. Existing Electricity Sector ....................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Institutional Framework ............................................................................................................................. 7 2.3 Electricity Demand ....................................................................................................................................... 9 2.4 Existing and Committed Supply Facilities ......................................................................................... 13 2.4.1 Local Generation Facilities ........................................................................................................... 13 2.4.2 Imports ................................................................................................................................................ 17 2.5 Transmission and Distribution ............................................................................................................... 21 2.6 Interconnections ......................................................................................................................................... 24 2.7 Electricity Supply Licences ...................................................................................................................... 24 2.8 Other Generation Included in the Short Term Critical Supply Program ................................ 25 3. Supply and Demand Situation ............................................................................................. 27 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 27 3.2 The Energy Policy White Paper ............................................................................................................. 27 3.3 Demand Forecast ....................................................................................................................................... 29 3.4 Short Term Demand and Supply Situation ....................................................................................... 32 4. Planning Parameters and Criteria ........................................................................................ 40 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 40 4.2 General and Economic Parameters ...................................................................................................... 40 4.2.1 National Focus.................................................................................................................................. 40 4.2.2 Planning Horizon ............................................................................................................................. 41 4.2.3 Cost and Present Worth Datum ................................................................................................ 41 4.2.4 Escalation ........................................................................................................................................... 41 4.2.5 Currency .............................................................................................................................................. 41 4.2.6 Discount Rate ................................................................................................................................... 42 ISO 9001 H338829-0000-90-124-0004, Rev. B , Page iii © Hatch 2012/08 The World Bank Group & Electricity Control Board of Namibia - National Integrated Resource Plan Planning Parameters and Generation Options Draft Report – 16 July, 2012 4.2.7 Foreign Exchange Rate.................................................................................................................. 42 4.2.8 Insurance and Interim Replacement ........................................................................................ 42 4.2.9 Cost of Expected Unsupplied Energy ...................................................................................... 42 4.2.10 Cost of Losses ................................................................................................................................... 42 4.2.11 Duties and Taxes ............................................................................................................................. 43 4.2.12 Interest during Construction (IDC) ........................................................................................... 43 4.3 Generation .................................................................................................................................................... 43 4.3.1 Committed Generation Additions............................................................................................
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