The World Bank Group & Electricity Control Board of Namibia - National Integrated Resource Plan Planning Parameters and Generation Options Draft Report – 16 July, 2012 The World Bank Group & Electricity Control Board of Namibia National Integrated Resource Plan Planning Parameters and Generation Options Draft Report Prepared by: 16 July , 2012 Anibal Carias, Guangbin Lian Date Approvals Hatch Approved by: 16 July , 2012 Bob Griesbach Date The World Bank Group & Electricity Control Board of Namibia Approved by: Date ISO 9001 H338829-0000-90-124-0004, Rev. A, Page i © Hatch 2012/08 The World Bank Group & Electricity Control Board of Namibia - National Integrated Resource Plan Planning Parameters and Generation Options Draft Report – 16 July, 2012 Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Hatch Ltd. 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ISO 9001 H338829-0000-90-124-0004, Rev. B , Page ii © Hatch 2012/08 The World Bank Group & Electricity Control Board of Namibia - National Integrated Resource Plan Planning Parameters and Generation Options Draft Report – 16 July, 2012 Table of Contents Disclaimer ....................................................................................................................................... ii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations .......................................................................................... xi 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Purpose of the Planning Parameters and Generation Options Report .................................... 2 1.3 Report Contents ............................................................................................................................................ 3 1.3.1 Report Outline .................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.2 Reference Scope of Work .............................................................................................................. 4 1.4 Information Collection ................................................................................................................................ 5 2. Existing Electricity Sector ....................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Institutional Framework ............................................................................................................................. 7 2.3 Electricity Demand ....................................................................................................................................... 9 2.4 Existing and Committed Supply Facilities ......................................................................................... 13 2.4.1 Local Generation Facilities ........................................................................................................... 13 2.4.2 Imports ................................................................................................................................................ 17 2.5 Transmission and Distribution ............................................................................................................... 21 2.6 Interconnections ......................................................................................................................................... 24 2.7 Electricity Supply Licences ...................................................................................................................... 24 2.8 Other Generation Included in the Short Term Critical Supply Program ................................ 25 3. Supply and Demand Situation ............................................................................................. 27 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 27 3.2 The Energy Policy White Paper ............................................................................................................. 27 3.3 Demand Forecast ....................................................................................................................................... 29 3.4 Short Term Demand and Supply Situation ....................................................................................... 32 4. Planning Parameters and Criteria ........................................................................................ 40 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 40 4.2 General and Economic Parameters ...................................................................................................... 40 4.2.1 National Focus.................................................................................................................................. 40 4.2.2 Planning Horizon ............................................................................................................................. 41 4.2.3 Cost and Present Worth Datum ................................................................................................ 41 4.2.4 Escalation ........................................................................................................................................... 41 4.2.5 Currency .............................................................................................................................................. 41 4.2.6 Discount Rate ................................................................................................................................... 42 ISO 9001 H338829-0000-90-124-0004, Rev. B , Page iii © Hatch 2012/08 The World Bank Group & Electricity Control Board of Namibia - National Integrated Resource Plan Planning Parameters and Generation Options Draft Report – 16 July, 2012 4.2.7 Foreign Exchange Rate.................................................................................................................. 42 4.2.8 Insurance and Interim Replacement ........................................................................................ 42 4.2.9 Cost of Expected Unsupplied Energy ...................................................................................... 42 4.2.10 Cost of Losses ................................................................................................................................... 42 4.2.11 Duties and Taxes ............................................................................................................................. 43 4.2.12 Interest during Construction (IDC) ........................................................................................... 43 4.3 Generation .................................................................................................................................................... 43 4.3.1 Committed Generation Additions............................................................................................