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The Implications of Sea-Level Rise for Tourism in St. Lucia

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The Implications of Sea-Level Rise for Tourism in St. Lucia The Implications of Sea-level Rise for Tourism in St. Lucia by Merkevia Isaac A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo in fulfilment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Master of Environmental Studies in Geography - Tourism Policy and Planning Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 2013 ©Merkevia Isaac 2013 Author’s Declaration I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that my thesis may be made electronically available to the public. ii Abstract Sea-level rise is one of the most certain impacts of climate change that will have major long-term implications for tourism in the Caribbean. Sea-level rise will impact coastal tourism through inundation and erosion, damage to tourism infrastructure, (e.g., hotels/resorts, transportation) and also essential coastal resources (e.g., beaches and coral reefs). The study examines the implications of projected scenarios of sea-level rise for tourism in St. Lucia. Using geospatial analysis that integrates elevation data from satellites and digitized locations of tourism properties, transportation infrastructure (airports and cruise ports) and areas that have been zoned for future tourism development, this study identifies tourism assets that would be at risk to permanent inundation from a 1 m sea-level rise, flooding from storm surge associated with a 1/25 year storm event under 1 m sea-level rise, and exacerbated erosion associated with 1 m sea-level rise. The results indicate that while 1 m of sea-level rise would cause permanent inundation at only 4% of the 73 tourism properties assessed (impacting 7% of 4947 of rooms on the island), the additional exposure to storm surge and waves under a 1/25 year storm event would cause flooding damages at 30% of 73 tourism properties impacting 54% of rooms on the island. This study also found that erosion associated with 1 m of sea-level rise would impact 100% of the coastal resorts with inventoried beach assets. The study uses Google Earth and field observations to examine the potential of inland retreat as an adaptation strategy for coastal tourism resorts. Results indicate that 24 of 37 coastal tourism properties assessed would be unable to retreat due to current development or physical barriers, (e.g., water surfaces, protected areas, cliffs). The study reviewed 16 national policies and planning documents to examine to what extent sea-level rise was considered in tourism planning and development, and found that only two policy documents referred to sea-level rise within the context of tourism. The thesis concludes with a discussion of additional research needs and recommendations for long-term planning and decision-making that are aimed at improving tourism adaptation to climate change and sea-level rise in St. Lucia. iii Acknowledgements I would first like to thank my advisor Dr. Daniel Scott, for the immense assistance, support, patience and insight he provided throughout my Master’s Degree. I also thank my committee members, Dr. Peter Deadman and Dr. Brent Doberstein for their helpful input. In addition, I would like to acknowledge Mr. Ryan Sim for his invaluable time and support by lending his geographic information systems (GIS) expertise. I also thank Ms Joanna Rosemond at the Department of Sustainable Development and Environment Division, Government of St. Lucia for her on-going communication and access to relevant data that was used in my research. Finally, I would also like to acknowledge my family: Julia, Jean and Cornelius Isaac who provided love, encouragement, and support from miles away throughout this important phase of my life. I would especially like to thank my husband, Kimron for his continuous love, understanding and support throughout this journey. You were all instrumental throughout this important process of completing my thesis. iv Table of Contents List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................ xi List of Tables ......................................................................................................................................... xii List of Acronyms ................................................................................................................................. xiv 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Study Context and Rationale ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2. Research Goal and Objectives ........................................................................................................... 8 1.3. Thesis Structure .................................................................................................................................... 8 2. Literature Review ....................................................................................................................... 10 2.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 10 2.2. Climate Change .................................................................................................................................. 10 2.2.1. Climate Change Projections .................................................................................................. 11 2.2.2. Impacts of Climate Change .................................................................................................... 13 2.3. Sea-level Rise ....................................................................................................................................... 16 2.3.1. Sea-level Rise Projections ....................................................................................................... 19 2.4. Tourism ................................................................................................................................................. 20 2.4.1. Sustainable Tourism ................................................................................................................ 21 2.4.2. Coastal Tourism ........................................................................................................................ 23 2.5. Climate Change and Tourism ........................................................................................................ 25 2.5.1. Climate and Tourism ............................................................................................................... 26 2.5.2. Impact of Climate Change on Tourism .............................................................................. 28 2.5.3. Tourism Contribution to Climate Change......................................................................... 31 2.5.4. The Implications of Sea-level Rise for Coastal Tourism ............................................... 33 2.5.5. Coastal Adaptation to Climate change and Sea-level Rise ......................................... 34 v 2.6. Tourism in the Caribbean ............................................................................................................... 35 2.6.1. The Implications of Sea-level Rise for Tourism in the Caribbean ............................. 36 2.6.2. The Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Tourism in the Caribbean .................. 39 2.6.3. Current and Future Challenges ............................................................................................ 42 2.7. St. Lucia and Tourism ..................................................................................................................... 46 2.7.1. Climate and Biodiversity ........................................................................................................ 46 2.7.2. Tourism Development in St. Lucia: History, Trends and Markets ............................ 47 2.7.3. Geographic Concentrations of Tourism ............................................................................ 49 2.7.4. Tourism Attractions ................................................................................................................. 51 2.7.5. The Impacts of Climate and Natural Disasters on Tourism ....................................... 51 2.7.6. Tourism Policy and Management ....................................................................................... 55 2.7.7. Overview of Policy and Frameworks .................................................................................. 56 2.7.8. Coastal Zone Characteristics ................................................................................................. 58 2.7.9. Tourism Planning ..................................................................................................................... 59 3. Methods.......................................................................................................................................... 62 3.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 62 3.2. Research Approach and Rationale .............................................................................................. 62 3.3. Data Sources and Research Methods .........................................................................................
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