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An Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean LIMITED LC/CAR/L.314 22 October 2011 ORIGINAL: ENGLISH AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE TOURISM SECTOR IN BARBADOS __________ This document has been reproduced without formal editing. i Notes and explanations of symbols: The following symbols have been used in this study: A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals n.a. is used to indicate that data are not available The use of a hyphen (-) between years, for example, 2010-2019, signifies an annual average for the calendar years involved, including the beginning and ending years, unless otherwise specified. The word ―dollar‖ refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise specified. The term ―billion‖ refers to a thousand million. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. i Acknowledgement The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean wishes to acknowledge the assistance of Nicholas Fields, consultant, in the preparation of this report ii Table of Contents List of tables ....................................................................................................................................................... v List of figures ................................................................................................................................................... vi Abbreviations and acronyms ........................................................................................................................... vii I. BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................................ 1 A. Tourism in the Caribbean .................................................................................................................... 1 1. Vulnerability of the Caribbean to climate change...................................................................... 1 2. Tourism in Barbados .................................................................................................................. 2 B. Climate change and tourism ................................................................................................................ 4 1. Climate change and tourism in Barbados and the Caribbean .................................................... 7 2. Forecasting tourism under the impacts of climate change ......................................................... 8 II. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS: TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR RELATED SECTORS ..... 10 A. Agriculture and fisheries ................................................................................................................... 10 B. Transport and communication infrastructure .................................................................................... 12 C. Environment ...................................................................................................................................... 13 1. Biodiversity .............................................................................................................................. 13 (i) Coastal impacts: beaches and landscape ................................................................................. 14 (ii) Water resources ...................................................................................................................... 14 III. METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................................... 15 A. Data collection ................................................................................................................................... 16 1. Tourism forecasting method ............................................................................................................. 17 (i) Justification of the methodology ............................................................................................. 24 (ii) Limitations ............................................................................................................................. 25 (iii) Advantages ............................................................................................................................ 27 2. Layering of three core impacts on the economics of tourism ............................................................ 27 IV. CLIMATE CHANGE IN BARBADOS – OBSERVED TRENDS ........................................................... 29 A. Temperature ...................................................................................................................................... 29 B. Rainfall .............................................................................................................................................. 31 C. Extreme events (including hurricanes) .............................................................................................. 34 D. Wind speeds ...................................................................................................................................... 35 E. Emissions ........................................................................................................................................... 35 F. Observed coral bleaching ................................................................................................................... 36 G. Observed sea-level rise ...................................................................................................................... 37 V. CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS SUMMARY ................................................................................. 38 A. A2 Scenario (scenario without significant reduction in emissions) .................................................. 38 1. Changes in rainfall ................................................................................................................... 38 2. Changes in temperature ............................................................................................................ 39 3. Sunshine hours ......................................................................................................................... 40 B. B2 Scenario (scenario with some mitigation of greenhouse gases) .................................................. 41 1. Changes in rainfall ................................................................................................................... 41 2. Changes in temperature ............................................................................................................ 42 C. Projections in extreme events ............................................................................................................ 42 1. Wind speed .............................................................................................................................. 43 D. Projected impact of climate change policy on tourist mobility and long-haul travel ........................ 43 iii E. Projected impact of climate change on coral reef-related tourism .................................................... 47 1. Estimating the value of the coral reef-associated tourism in Barbados ................................... 49 F. Projected impacts of sea-level rise ..................................................................................................... 50 VI. ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE TOURISM SECTOR IN BARBADOS ............................................................................................................................................... 54 A. Tourism scenarios based on climate change in Barbados ................................................................. 54 B. Tourism mobility and climate policies .............................................................................................. 58 C. Coral reef impacts .............................................................................................................................. 58 D. Sea-level rise impacts ........................................................................................................................ 59 E. Total impact of climate change on tourism in Barbados ................................................................... 60 VII. APPROACHES TO ADAPTATION IN THE TOURISM SECTOR ...................................................... 61 A. Infrastructure ..................................................................................................................................... 62 B. Emissions ........................................................................................................................................... 62 C. The environment ................................................................................................................................ 63 D. Water ................................................................................................................................................. 63 E. Costing adaptation and investment opportunities .............................................................................. 64 VIII. CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................................... 69 BIBLIOGRAPHY ...........................................................................................
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