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Climate Policy and International Tourism Arrivals to the Caribbean Region

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Climate Policy and International Tourism Arrivals to the Caribbean Region Climate Policy and International Tourism Arrivals to the Caribbean Region by Laurel Jean Pentelow A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo in fulfillment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Master of Arts in Geography Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 2009 ©Laurel Jean Pentelow 2009 Library and Archives Bibliothèque et Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de l’édition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre référence ISBN: 978-0-494-56204-8 Our file Notre référence ISBN: 978-0-494-56204-8 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non- L’auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library and permettant à la Bibliothèque et Archives Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par télécommunication ou par l’Internet, prêter, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des thèses partout dans le loan, distribute and sell theses monde, à des fins commerciales ou autres, sur worldwide, for commercial or non- support microforme, papier, électronique et/ou commercial purposes, in microform, autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L’auteur conserve la propriété du droit d’auteur ownership and moral rights in this et des droits moraux qui protège cette thèse. Ni thesis. Neither the thesis nor la thèse ni des extraits substantiels de celle-ci substantial extracts from it may be ne doivent être imprimés ou autrement printed or otherwise reproduced reproduits sans son autorisation. without the author’s permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformément à la loi canadienne sur la Privacy Act some supporting forms protection de la vie privée, quelques may have been removed from this formulaires secondaires ont été enlevés de thesis. cette thèse. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires aient inclus dans in the document page count, their la pagination, il n’y aura aucun contenu removal does not represent any loss manquant. of content from the thesis. Author’s Declaration I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that my thesis may be made electronically available to the public. ii Abstract Increasingly the body of research shows that tourism is vulnerable to climate change. Tourism is also a non-negligible contributor to climate change, primarily through rapidly increasing air travel. Recently, a number of tourism destinations that are dependent on long-haul tourism have expressed concerns about the impact of climate policy (both implemented and proposed) on tourist mobility and arrivals to their countries. This thesis examines outcomes from a model which projects how climate mitigation policy could influence arrival numbers to the Caribbean region; an area projected to be disproportionately impacted by climate change. While impacts on this region are likely to be both physical as well as economical, mitigation policy restricting emissions from international aviation is likely to be the first wave of climate change effects felt. This policy, coupled with the fluctuation of global oil prices, may be a significant deterrent for travelers to the Caribbean. Different scenarios using likely mitigation policy costs on international flights and oil price fluctuations were modeled to understand how these tourism- dependent nations might fair with increases in travel cost due to conditions beyond their control. Both region-wide and destination specific results were examined showing that visitor numbers could decrease versus a business as usual scenario with climate policy and heightened oil prices, but not significantly until climate policy with deeper emission cuts and carbon prices higher than currently suggested are put in place. Result are not uniform across the region, and show that certain destinations are projected to be more vulnerable to climate mitigation policy than others. Recommendations focusing on both the aviation industry’s inclusion in climate policy and those to aid the region’s tourism sector are provided. iii Acknowledgements To begin I want to thank my advisor, Dr. Daniel Scott, for his guidance, patience and tremendous support throughout my Master’s degree. Dan’s encouragement and assistance gave me the confidence to push forward with this research even when seemingly insurmountable obstacles were encountered. The completion of this thesis is not only a great achievement for myself but also a testament to his exceptional ability as a supervisor and mentor to students. I would also like to extend my heartfelt thanks to Dr. Geoff McBoyle who provided instrumental comments and advice as my committee member. Thanks to Dr. Jean Andrey and Dr. Brent Doberstein who, as the readers for my defence, provided essential guidance and initiated stimulating discussion during my examination. You all have allowed me to produce a thesis of which I am very proud. Thank you to the academics, researchers and policy analysis from whom I have learned so much. Particular thanks to Dr. Stephan Gossling and Dr. Paul Peeters for their ideas which were foundational in this work. As well, thanks to the Statistical Division of the United Nations World Tourism Organization for access to the data that was used in this research. To the Ontario Government for the funding which I received in order to complete this degree. And last (but certainly not least) thanks to my support system of family, friends and colleagues. To my parents for their unending support and belief in me – without you I would never have dreamed of being where I am today. You deserve much more thanks than what can be written in a few sentences. To my brother, Steffen, and the rest of my family for all the love and encouragement you have provided over the years. Thanks to all my friends for the special part you all played in helping me reach this point; specifically thanks to Beth, Jackie, Chris L. and Chris A. for the panic attacks you helped avert and the humour you added to the years we studied and worked together. To Rand, for your undying support and belief in my ability to reach my dreams. To the faculty and staff of the Faculty of Environment, many of whom I have had the pleasure of knowing and working with over the seven years I have spent at this university. You each have provided me with knowledge and confidence in many different ways. And to the Environment Canada staff, Brian and Linda, who have fostered my research skills and always given me opportunities to succeed. iv Table of Contents List of Tables ......................................................................................................................................... x List of Figures ...................................................................................................................................... xii List of Acronyms ................................................................................................................................ xiii 1.0 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research Need and Rationale ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Goals and Objectives .................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Structure of Thesis ........................................................................................................................ 4 2.0 Review of Literature ....................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Global Climate Change ................................................................................................................. 6 2.1.1 Emission Scenarios ................................................................................................................ 8 2.1.1.1 Climate Change Observations and Projections ............................................................... 10 2.1.1.1.1 Observations of a Changing Climate ....................................................................... 10 2.1.1.1.2 Climate Change Projections .................................................................................... 12 2.1.2 Mitigation ............................................................................................................................ 13 2.1.2.1 Kyoto Protocol .............................................................................................................. 15 2.1.2.2 Mitigation policies ........................................................................................................ 17 2.1.2.2.1 Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) ............................................................................ 19 2.1.2.2.2 Carbon Tax (CT) .................................................................................................... 19 2.2 Tourism and Climate Change ...................................................................................................... 20 2.2.1 The Tourism Sector.............................................................................................................
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