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Annex II - Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I

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Annex II - Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I Annex II - Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I FEASIBILITY STUDY Supporting Climate Resilience and Transformational Change in the Agriculture Sector in Bhutan Feasibility Study for GCF “Supporting Climate Resilience and Transformational Change in the Agriculture Sector in Bhutan” FEASIBILITY STUDY for the Green Climate Fund (GCF) “Supporting Climate Resilience and Transformational Change in the Agriculture Sector in Bhutan” Updated June 2019 2 Feasibility Study for GCF “Supporting Climate Resilience and Transformational Change in the Agriculture Sector in Bhutan” Table of Contents Executive Summary......................................................................................................................................... 10 1. Introduction and Background................................................................................................................ 15 1.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 15 1.1.1 Objectives ...................................................................................................................... 15 1.1.2 Process and methodology for the feasibility study ........................................................ 15 1.2 Country Background: development context and challenges ......................................... 15 1.3 Observed changes in climate ............................................................................................. 18 1.3.1. Changes in average rainfall, evapotranspiration and effective rainfall .......................... 19 1.3.2 Changes in season lengths ........................................................................................... 25 1.3.3 Observed changes in extreme rainfall ........................................................................... 26 1.3.4 Observed changes in temperature ................................................................................ 28 1.3.5 Observed changes in temperature extremes ................................................................ 29 1.3.6 Evidence of changes in extremes and seasonal rainfall in the literature ...................... 33 1.4. Future climate projection for Bhutan ................................................................................ 34 1.4.1. Global model changes (GCMs) .......................................................................................... 34 1.4.2 Downscaled changes – rainfall ...................................................................................... 35 1.4.3 Downscaled changes – temperature ............................................................................. 37 1.4.4 Spatial changes in rainfall and temperature .................................................................. 38 1.4.5 Expected climate change impacts on extreme events - flash floods and landslides .... 39 1.5 Reported impacts of climate-related hazards ................................................................... 40 1.6 Summary of expected changes in climate ........................................................................ 44 1.7 Climate change related risks and impacts on agriculture............................................... 45 1.7.1 Water availability ............................................................................................................ 45 1.7.2 Impacts on crop yields, suitability and soil erosion ........................................................ 46 1.7.3 Farmer reports on experienced impacts ........................................................................ 49 1.7.4 Impacts on roads and access to markets ...................................................................... 50 1.7.5 Impact on Irrigation infrastructure .................................................................................. 50 1.8 Summary of climate change related risks and impacts on agriculture ......................... 50 2 Baseline Information .............................................................................................................................. 52 2.1 Water Resources and Irrigation ......................................................................................... 52 2.2 Agriculture Productivity ...................................................................................................... 54 2.3 Roads and Market Access .................................................................................................. 58 3 Policy and Institutional Framework related to Climate Change......................................................... 63 3.1 National Development Policies and Strategies ................................................................ 63 3.1.2 Relevant national policies and policy related instruments focused on adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts and enhancing food security .............................................................. 63 3.2 Institutional Framework ........................................................................................................... 65 3.2.1 National Level ................................................................................................................ 65 3.2.2 Civil Society ................................................................................................................... 67 3.2.3 Dzongkhag and Gewog Level ....................................................................................... 69 3 Feasibility Study for GCF “Supporting Climate Resilience and Transformational Change in the Agriculture Sector in Bhutan” 4. Current needs, gaps and barriers: constraints to improve climate resilience for the agriculture sector in Bhutan .............................................................................................................................................. 70 5 Past and on-going projects: building on existing efforts ................................................................... 80 5.1 Water related projects ......................................................................................................... 80 5.2 Road related projects .......................................................................................................... 81 5.4 Markets and value chain projects ...................................................................................... 86 6 Lessons Learned and Best Practices ................................................................................................... 87 6.1 Soil and water resources .................................................................................................... 87 6.2 Agriculture ............................................................................................................................ 89 6.3 Road access and market access ....................................................................................... 93 6.4 Skills, market analysis and information ............................................................................ 95 6.5 Gender and Climate Change .............................................................................................. 96 7 Findings and Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 97 7.1 Overall Findings ................................................................................................................... 97 7.2 Recommendations ............................................................................................................... 99 Annex A: The Report on the Analysis of Historical Climate and Climate Projection for Bhutan ......... 120 Annex B: Additional information for proposed 4 new irrigation schemes .............................................. 121 Annex C: Bhutan Cropping Calendar .......................................................................................................... 138 Annex D: Maps of the 8 Dzongkhags with detailing the intervention areas............................................ 141 4 Feasibility Study for GCF “Supporting Climate Resilience and Transformational Change in the Agriculture Sector in Bhutan” List of Figures Figure 1 Topographic map of Bhutan, DSLR and ITC, 2004. ........................................................................... 16 Figure 2 Agro-ecological zones of Bhutan, source Dorji, 1995, after MoA-ISNAR 1992 .................................. 16 Figure 3 Averaged seasonal rainfall distribution over the country .................................................................... 18 Figure 4 Observed total annual rainfall in Bhutan (1996-2017) for individual weather stations and average (thick grey line). Source NCHM. ........................................................................................................................ 20 Figure 5: Annual total rainfall of CRU data against station data. ...................................................................... 20 Figure 6: Trends in annual total rainfall. Negative trends in blue and positive trends in red (size of circle dependent on absolute value of trend). +ve/-ve trends significant at the 90% level or higher (according to bootstrapped Thiel-Sen trend) indicated by “+”/”-“ symbol. ............................................................................... 21 Figure 7: Trends in annual evapotranspiration (ET0). Negative trends in blue and positive trends in red (size of circle
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