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LE GOLFE PERSIQUE Nœud Gordien D’Une Zone En Conflictualité Permanente 10 10 2019 Année 2019

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LE GOLFE PERSIQUE Nœud Gordien D’Une Zone En Conflictualité Permanente 10 10 2019 Année 2019 LE GOLFE PERSIQUE Nœud gordien d’une zone en conflictualité permanente 10 10 2019 Année 2019 Jusqu’à présent, et en dépit des nombreux incidents qui ont émaillé le golfe Persique depuis le mai et la décision de Donald Trump de sortir de l’accord sur le nucléaire iranien (signé Sous la direction de à Vienne le juillet ), un embrasement régional semble vouloir être évité par toutes les Roland Lombardi parties prenantes de la situation, notamment l’Iran et les Etats-Unis. Néanmoins, un accident est toujours possible. Ainsi, la crise actuelle mérite-t-elle toute notre attention. Son issue peut avoir des conséquences majeures pour l’Europe, son économie et bien évidemment sa sécurité. C’est pourquoi, ce numéro de la revue Orients Stratégiques s’inscrit dans une volonté de dresser un bilan actualisé de la situation, des di érents enjeux et perspectives LE GOLFE PERSIQUE dans un contexte complexe où s’entrechoquent des infl uences et des intérêts contradictoires. Les chercheurs et les spécialistes de la zone qui ont participé à ce dossier se sont donc Nœud gordien d’une zone en conflictualité permanente e orcés d’apporter une réfl exion stratégique originale, pour mieux se distancier de tout sensationnalisme médiatique souvent de mise dès qu’il s’agit de cette région convulsive, afi n de fournir de nouvelles grilles de lecture et surtout, d’essayer d’anticiper de manière prospective l’ampleur des défi s associés à cette zone sensible. Roland Lombardi Alain Rodier Présentation Coups de projecteur sur la guerre secrète Roland Lombardi au Proche et Moyen-Orient Entretien avec Pierre Razoux David Rigoulet-Roze Thomas Flichy de la Neuville L’ostracisation du Qatar : un aspect singulier La contribution de Jean Chardin à l’image d’une crise multiforme dans le Golfe permanente ud gordien en conflictualité zone d’une œ de l’enfermement continental de la Perse N Barah Mikaïl Amélie M. Chelly L’Iran, la Syrie, le Golfe et le futur en Le martyre idéologique iranien perspective François Géré Myriam Benraad L’interminable crise iranienne L’Irak au cœur de la rivalité stratégique Jean-François Coustillière régionale irano-saoudienne Provocations croisées dans Stephan Silvestre LE GOLFE PERSIQUE LE GOLFE PERSIQUE le golfe Persique Golfe : l’après-pétrole reconfi gure Jean-Paul Burdy l’équilibre régional Brumes de chaleur sur le détroit d’Ormuz... Comptes-rendus d’ouvrages ISBN : 978-2-343-19342-7 21 € OS-n10-couverture.indd 1 07/01/2020 23:11:53 Directeur de la rédaction : Pierre Berthelot Rédacteur en chef : David Rigoulet-Roze Coordinateur éditorial : Ata Ayati COMITÉ DE RÉDACTION Djamchid ASSADI : Professeur, ESC Dijon Fabrice BALANCHE : Visiting Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy Semra DOGan : Chercheure et consultante Thomas FLICHY DE LA NEUVILLE : Professeur à St Cyr Leyla FOULADVIND : Chercheure à l’EHESS Consultant géopolitique, Intervenant Roland LOMbardi : à La Rochelle Business School - Excelia Group Daniel MEIER : Chercheur au laboratoire PACTE, Grenoble Emel PARLAR DAL : Professeur, Université de Marmara Sébastien WESSER : Consultant en relations internationales COMITÉ SCIENTIFIQUE Denis BAUCHARD : Mathieu GUIDÈRE : Conseiller Moyen-Orient à l’IFRI Directeur du département d’études arabes, Paris VIII Pascal chaiGneaU : Farhad KHOSROKHAVAR : Professeur des Universités Paris V Directeur d’études à l’EHESS Dominique de COURCELLES : Recteur Joseph MaÏla : Directeur de recherche, CNRS Professeur à l’ESSEC Jean-François DAGUZAN : Barah MIKAIL : Directeur-adjoint de la Fondation Professeur associé, Université Saint-Louis, Madrid pour la recherche stratégique Stéphane VALTER : Marwa DAOUDY : Professeur, Université de Georgetown ( USA ) Professeur à Lyon II Recteur Gérard-François DUMONT : Recteur Charles ZORGBIBE : Professeur des Universités, Paris IV Professeur émérite, Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne François GÉRÉ : Président de l’Institut Français d’Analyse Stratégique Direction de publication : ATA AYATI ET XAVIER PRYEN 1-page de garde.indd 1 01/01/2020 21:31:51 © L’HARMATTAN, 2019 5-7, rue de l’École-Polytechnique, 75005 Paris http://www.editions-harmattan.fr ISBN : 978-2-343-19342-7 EAN : 9782343193427 1-page de garde.indd 2 01/01/2020 21:31:51 Sommaire Le golfe Persique : nœud gordien d’une zone en confl ictualité permanente Dossier sous la direction de Roland Lombardi R L Présentation .................................................................................................................... 7 R L Entretien avec Pierre Razoux ............................................................................................. 13 T F N La contribution de Jean Chardin à l’image de l’enfermement continental de la Perse ............. 23 A M. C Le martyre idéologique iranien. Le martyre chiite versus le martyre sunnite : éléments de comparaison ............................... 35 F G L’interminable crise iranienne ............................................................................................ 51 J-F C Provocations croisées dans le golfe Persique ...................................................................... 63 J-P B Brumes de chaleur sur le détroit d’Ormuz... Importance stratégique maintenue, blocage improbable, architecture de sécurité à redéfi nir ..................................................................................... 85 A R Coups de projecteur sur la guerre secrète au Proche et Moyen-Orient .................................. 103 D R -R L’ostracisation du Qatar : un aspect singulier d’une crise multiforme dans le Golfe ................ 123 B M L’Iran, la Syrie, le Golfe et le futur en perspective ............................................................... 143 M B L’Irak au cœur de la rivalité stratégique régionale irano-saoudienne .................................... 157 S S Golfe : l’après-pétrole reconfi gure l’équilibre régional ......................................................... 169 Comptes-rendus d’ouvrages .......................................................................................... 179 Présentation des auteur.e.s ........................................................................................... 187 3-sommaire10.indd 5 07/01/2020 23:09:46 Coups de projecteur sur la guerre secrète au Proche et Moyen-Orient A R* Résumé Abstact L’assassinat de Jamal Khashoggi à e assassination of Jamal Khashoggi Istanbul en octobre 2018, la neutralisation in Istanbul in October 2018, the d’Abou Bakr al-Baghdadi un an plus tard neutralization of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi au nord-ouest de la Syrie, les attaques de a year later in northwestern Syria, missiles et/ou de drones dirigées contre missiles and/or drones attacks against les installations pétrolières et les navires oil installations and saudi merchants marchands saoudiens intervenues tout ships intervened throughout the year au long de l’année 2019, ne constituent 2019, are the only visible part of the que la partie visible des guerres secrètes secret wars that are being waged today in qui se mènent aujourd’hui au Proche- et the Near and Middle East. ey engage Moyen-Orient. Elles engagent les services the special services of the region but also spéciaux de la région mais aussi ceux des those of the countries that defend their pays qui y défendent leurs intérêts. Pour interests. For all, what professionals tous, ce que les professionnels surnom- sometimes call «the great game» is to ment parfois « le Grand jeu », consiste gather intelligence by technical, human, d’abord à recueillir du renseignement collaborative or operational means. First, par des moyens techniques, humains, the Americans make the biggest harvest. collaborationnels ou opérationnels. Ce e hunt for al-Baghdadi, which made sont d’abord les Américains qui font la it possible to locate the villa in which he plus grande moisson. La traque d’al- was hiding, is a model of the kind that Baghdadi qui a permis de localiser la villa will certainly be taught in the espionage dans laquelle il se cachait est un modèle schools in the future. It is the strategic du genre qui sera certainement enseignée and tactical intelligence gathered by the à l’avenir dans les écoles d’espionnage. Russians that allowed them to wage a Ce sont les renseignements stratégiques low-cost war in Syria. As usual, Israelis et tactiques recueillis par les Russes qui have been successful in locating point leur ont permis de mener une guerre à targets in Syria and Iraq. ese shadow faible coût en Syrie. Comme d’habitude, wars will continue in the future as the les Israéliens ont été performants dans la interests of the many camps continue to localisation de cibles ponctuelles situées be fundamentally di erent. en Syrie et en Irak. Ces guerres de l’ombre vont se poursuivre dans l’avenir car les intérêts des multiples camps continuent d’être fondamentalement di érents. * Ancien o cier supérieur au sein des services de renseignement français, est directeur de recherche au Centre français de recherche sur le renseignement (CfR). rodier.indd 103 07/01/2020 23:05:47 Les con its qui se déroulent actuellement au Proche et Moyen-Orient ne concernent pas que les pays de la région mais les grandes puissances qui y sont impliquées à des degrés divers. La partie visible est largement couverte par la presse, mais ce n’est en réalité que la partie émergée de l’iceberg, le « Grand jeu » se déroulant dans la clandestinité. Il est conduit par les services secrets parfois renforcés de membres des forces spéciales ou de milices quand le besoin de muscles plus important se fait sentir. Mais pour tenter de
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