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Guerra Cibernética E Ameaças Transnacionais Revista da Escola de Guerra Naval Rio de Janeiro, v. 20, n.1, jan./jun. 2014 ESCOLA DE GUERRA NAVAL A Revista da Escola de Guerra Naval é um periódico especializado em Estudos Estratégicos que tem o propósito de disseminar e promover intercâmbio, em níveis nacional e internacional, de conhecimentos relativos à Defesa com ênfase na área de Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais. Desta forma, tem como objetivo proporcionar maior integração entre a Marinha do Brasil e a sociedade, publicando artigos científicos, comunicações e resenhas. COMANDANTE DA MARINHA: Almirante-de-Esquadra Eduardo Bacellar Leal Ferreira CHEFE DO ESTADO-MAIOR DA ARMADA: Almirante-de-Esquadra Wilson Barbosa Guerra DIRETOR DA ESCOLA DE GUERRA NAVAL: Contra-Almirante Antonio Fernando Garcez Faria ISSN 1809-3191 Janeiro/Junho 2014, vol. 20, n. 1 CORRESPONDÊNCIA: ESCOLA DE GUERRA NAVAL CENTRO DE ESTUDOS POLÍTICO-ESTRATÉGICOS Av. Pasteur, 480 - Praia Vermelha - Urca CEP 22290-255 Rio de Janeiro/RJ - Brasil (21) 2546-9394 [email protected] Aos cuidados do Editor Executivo da Revista da Escola de Guerra Naval Os trabalhos poderão ser apresentados em conformidade com as Instruções aos Autores, contidas na última página de cada volume, para o e-mail: [email protected] R. Esc. Guerra Naval Rio de Janeiro v. 20 n. 1 p. 1 - 264 jan./jun. 2014 A Revista da Escola de Guerra Naval é uma publicação semestral, editada pelo Centro de Estudos Político-Estratégicos (CEPE) e vinculada ao Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estudos Marítimos (PPGEM), sem fins lucrativos,que publica, prioritariamente, trabalhos originais e inéditos. A política editorial da Revista estabelece que os artigos devem apresentar uma reflexão inovadora e contribuir para o desenvolvimento de um pensamento estratégico autóctone em matéria de Defesa, particularmente, no que se refere ao poder marítimo. Todos os artigos para publicação estão condicionados ao processo de avaliação por pares e a aprovação dos membros do Conselho Editorial ou do Conselho Consultivo. Os artigos publicados pela Revista são de exclusiva responsabilidade de seus autores, não expressando, necessariamente, o pensamento da Escola de Guerra Naval nem o da Marinha do Brasil. Direitos desta edição reservados à EGN, podendo ser reproduzidos desde que citados a fonte e informado à Escola de Guerra Naval. CONSELHO CONSULTIVO CONSELHO EDITORIAL Mario Cesar Flores (EGN/CEPE, RJ, RJ, Brasil) André Panno Beirão(EGN/PPGEM, RJ, RJ, Brasil) Fernando Manoel Fontes Diégues (EGN/CEPE, RJ, Francisco Eduardo Alves de Almeida (IGHMB, RJ, RJ, Brasil) RJ, Brasil) Afonso Barbosa (EGN/CEPE, RJ, RJ, Brasil) José Miguel Arias Neto (UEL, Londrina, PR, Brasil) António Manuel F. da Silva Ribeiro (Universidade Rodrigo Fernandes More (UNIFESP, SP, SP, Brasil) Técnica de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal) Sabrina Evangelista Medeiros (Inter-American Reginaldo Gomes Garcia dos Reis (EGN/CEPE, RJ, Defense College, Washington, DC) RJ, Brasil) William de Sousa Moreira (UFF, Niterói, RJ, Brasil) Antonio Ruy de Almeida Silva (PUC-RJ, RJ, Brasil) Editor: Alcides Costa Vaz (UNB, DF, Brasil) Walter Maurício Costa de Miranda (EGN/CEPE, RJ, André Barata Nascimento (U Beira Int., Beira, RJ, Brasil) Portugal) Editor Executivo: Angela da Rocha (PUC-RJ, RJ, Brasil) Ricardo Wagner de Castilho Sá (EGN/CEPE, RJ, RJ, Brasil) Antônio Celso Alves Pereira (UERJ, RJ, RJ, Brasil) Editor Científico: Eurico de Lima Figueiredo (UFF, Niterói, RJ, Brasil) Nival Nunes de Almeida (UERJ, RJ, RJ, Brasil) Francisco Carlos Teixeira da Silva (UFRJ, RJ, RJ, Brasil) Revisor: Helena Carreiras (Univ. Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal) Geraldo Bassani (EGN, RJ, RJ, Brasil) José Murilo de Carvalho (UFRJ, RJ, RJ, Brasil) Diagramação e Programação Visual: Vanessa Ferreira da Silva Marcio Scalercio (PUC-RJ, RJ, Brasil) Revisora Bibliográfica: Michael Pavkovic (USNWC, Newport, RI, USA) Simone Freire Pinheiro e Angélica Behenck Ceron Mônica Herz (PUC-RJ, RJ, Brasil) Auxiliar Técnico: Williams Gonçalves (UERJ, RJ, RJ, Brasil) Augusto Davi Meirelles Neves Qualis/CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior LATINDEX - Sistema regional de información para revistas científicas de América Indexado em: Latina, el Caribe, España y Portugal ICAP - Indexação Compartilhada de Artigos de Periódicos SUMARIOS - Sumários de Revistas Brasileiras Revista da Escola de Guerra Naval. – v. 20, n. 1, (jul. 2014). – Rio de Janeiro: Escola de Guerra Naval, 1968 – v. ; 22 cm. Semestral ISSN 2359-3075 1. Brasil. Marinha – Periódicos. I. Brasil. Marinha. Escola de Guerra Naval. II. Título. PALAVRAS DO DIRETOR É com satisfação que apresento o mais recente número da Revista da Escola de Guerra Naval, dando continuidade ao objetivo de divulgar conhecimentos relativos à Defesa, em especial no que concerne ao Poder Marítimo. Mais uma vez, é motivo de júbilo abrir a Revista com um artigo do Ministro de Estado da Defesa, intitulado “Tendência da Segurança Internacional”. Nele, o Embaixador Celso Amorim propõe uma avaliação do panorama da segurança internacional contemporânea e o seu significado para a América do Sul. Destaco, também, o artigo “O muro, as torres e o paradigma neoliberal da política externa brasileira na década de 1990” do Almirante-de- Esquadra Alvaro Augusto Dias Monteiro, doutorando em Ciência Política pela Universidade Federal Fluminense, que analisa a passagem do modelo desenvolvimentista para o modelo neoliberal nessa época. Na seção artigos científicos encontramos, ainda, oito textos de autores nacionais e internacionais, que aprofundam o exame das transformações por que passa a ordem mundial, abordando temas como: BRICS, Ciclos do Poder Marítimo, Geopolítica da Ásia Central, Pré-Sal e a Segurança no Atlântico Sul, Antártica e o Entorno Estratégico Brasileiro, Guerra Cibernética e Ameaças Transnacionais. No último tema “Guerra de Insurgência”, o autor apresenta reflexões, oriundas de observações pessoais durante os recentes conflitos do Afeganistão e do Iraque, possibilitando um enfoque que amalgama a teoria e a realidade da guerra. Assim, os artigos desse novo exemplar refletem a diversidade e a complexidade das diversas abordagens relativas aos grandes temas de Defesa. Desejo a todos uma boa leitura! Antonio Fernando Garcez Faria Contra-Almirante Diretor 6 SUMÁRIO ARTIGO CONVIDADO TENDÊNCIAS DA SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL 13 Celso Amorim ARTIGOS O MURO, AS TORRES E A ADOÇÃO DO PARADIGMA 27 NEOLIBERAL Alvaro Augusto Dias Monteiro O BRICS E AS MUDANÇAS NA ORDEM 49 INTERNACIONAL Williams Gonçalves OS CICLOS LONGOS DE MODELSKI/THOMPSON E 77 O PODER MARÍTIMO BRITÂNICO Francisco Eduardo Alves de Almeida ANCARA E TEERÃO NO ENTORNO RUSSO: O 113 CAMINHO DA ÁSIA CENTRAL Paulo Afonso Brardo Duarte O PRÉ-SAL E A SEGURANÇA DO ATLÂNTICO SUL: A 139 DEFESA EM CAMADAS E O PAPEL DA INTEGRAÇÃO SUL-AMERICANA Lucas Kerr de Oliveira Marco Cepik Pedro Vinicius P. Brites 7 A INCLUSÃO DA ANTÁRTICA NO CONCEITO DE 165 ENTORNO ESTRATÉGICO BRASILEIRO Leonardo Faria de Mattos GUERRA CIBERNÉTICA: A GUERRA NO QUINTO 193 DOMÍNIO, CONCEITUAÇÃO E PRINCÍPIOS Júlio Cezar Barreto Leite da Silva ANÁLISE DAS AMEAÇAS TRANSNACIONAIS 211 CONTEMPORÂNEAS NO ENTORNO ATLÂNTICO BRASILEIRO: A TERCEIRIZAÇÃO DA SEGURANÇA E A REVISÃO DOS ESTUDOS DE POLÍTICA DE DEFESA Marcos Reis Tamiris P. Santos A GUERRA DE INSURGÊNCIA NA ATUALIDADE:A 231 LONGA GUERRA; UM ESTUDO DE COMO AS INSURGÊNCIAS TÊM EVOLUÍDO NO INÍCIO DO SÉCULO XXI Samuel Rosales NORMAS PARA PUBLICAÇÃO 259 8 SUMMARY INVITED ARTICLE TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 13 Celso Amorim ARTICLES THE WALL, THE TOWERS AND THE ADOPTION OF 27 THE PARADIGM NEOLIBERAL Alvaro Augusto Dias Monteiro BRICS AND THE CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL 49 ORDER Williams Gonçalves MODELSKI/THOMPSON LONG CYCLES AND 77 BRITISH SEA POWER Francisco Eduardo Alves de Almeida ANKARA AND TEHRAN IN RUSSIA’S ‘NEAR 113 ABROAD’: THE WAY TO CENTRAL ASIA Paulo Afonso Brardo Duarte THE PRE SALT AND THE SOUTH ATLANTIC 139 SECURITY:DEFENSE IN LAYERS AND THE SOUTH AMERICA INTEGRATION ROLE Lucas Kerr de Oliveira Marco Cepik Pedro Vinicius P. Brites 9 THE INCLUSION OF ANTARCTICA IN THE 165 BRAZILIAN STRATEGIC AREA OF INTEREST CONCEPT Leonardo Faria de Mattos CYBERNETIC WARFARE: THE FIFTH DOMAIN 193 WARFARE, CONCEPTS AND PRINCIPLES Júlio Cezar Barreto Leite da Silva A CONTEMPORARY TRANSNATIONAL THREATS 211 ANALYSIS IN BRAZILIAN ATLANTIC SURROUNDINGS: SECURITY PRIVATIZATION AND THE DEFENSE POLICY STUDIES REVIEW Marcos Reis Tamiris P. Santos TODAY’S INSURGENCY WAR: THE LONG WAR; A 231 STUDY HOW INSURGENCIES HAVE EVOLVED IN 21th CENTURY Samuel Rosales ARTICLES SUBMISSION GUIDELINES 259 AUTORES Celso Amorim Mestre em Relações Internacionais pela Academia Diplomática de Viena, na Austria. Exerceu o cargo de ministro das Relações Exteriores de 1993 a 1995 e de 2003 a 2010. Ministro da Defesa da República Federativa do Brasil de 2011 a 2014. Alvaro Augusto Dias Monteiro Doutorando do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência Política (PPGCP) da Universidade Federal Fluminense. Almirante-de-Esquadra e Presidente do Conselho do Centro de Estudos Político-Estratégicos da Escola de Guerra Naval (CEPE). Williams Gonçalves Doutor em Sociologia pela USP. Chefe do Departamento de Relações Internacionais e Professor do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais da UERJ. Colaborador Permanente do Centro de Estudos Político-Estratégicos (CEPE) da Escola de Guerra Naval. Conferencista Especial da Escola Superior de Guerra (ESG). Francisco Eduardo Alves DE ALMEIDA Doutor em História Comparada pela UFRJ, Capitão-de-Mar-e-Guerra, Professor da Escola de Guerra Naval
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