uuLn, ''UTU , n --l--,11au-11,scA-1Nts,o-Rss

VOL. 2 NO. 10 OCTOBER 1965

THE INDI CATORS is publi she d monthly by the De pa rtme nt of Business a nd Economics, Unive r· sity of Minnesota, Duluth, in cooperation w ith the Minnesota De pa rtme nt of Employ ment Security a nd the Duluth Chambe r of Comme rce. THE INDICATORS w as originated a r;d is compile d by Dr. Cecil H. Meye rs, professor of business and economics, UMD, and Glenn 0. Gronseth, resea rch a nalyst, Minnesota State Employ me nt Se rvice. Th e a uthors acknow le dge the coope ration and assista nce of the Area De ve lopment De pa rtme nt of t he Minnesota Power a nd Li g ht Co., Arthur C. Barschdorf, d irector, and of the Du luth Chamber of Commerce, in the printing and d istri bu· lio n of THE INDICATORS. Responsibility for the contents, is, howeve r, sole ly that of the a uthors.

DULU TH BU SINESS TIME PE RIOD DU LUTH INDEX IND EX 1963· l 965 IN[?EX (195 7•1959 = 100) OCTOBER 1965 ...... 147 140 ...... SEPTEMBER 1965 ...... 146 120 SEPTEMBER-O CTO BER CHANGE 100 + 1

80 ' NORMAL SEASONAL CHANGE ' SEPTEMBER TO O CTO BER ...... - 3 OCTOBER 1964 ...... 136 JAN F M A M J JUL Y A s 0 N D CHANGE, OCT. 1964 to O CT . 1965 ...... + 11

THE MONTH IN REVIEW - AN ANALYSIS

Contrary to the seasonal dip of three October due partly to the fact that seekers was the lowest for that month, poi nts that normally occurs in the Du- September levels were lower than nor- numeri call y, since 1956. Records at the luth economy in the September-October mal for that period. M innesota State E mployment Service in- period, the Duluth Business Index this K il owatt hours used, both commercial dicate 5 10 persons were coll ecting un- year moved upward by one point du ring and residential, rose seasona ll y. Grain employment benefits in October which that pe ri od of compari son. A strong shi pments were down seasonall y from is th e lowest for any sin gle month since month in shi pping and continued high September, but the drop was m ore than 1956. levels of constructi on were major con- customary because of the high Septem- T he credit inqu iries in dex in D ulu th tribu tors to the contra-seasonal gain in ber activ ity caused by the heavy ship- rose from 96 to 97 (1957-1 959 = 100) October busi ness activity. ments to Canadlian and overseas ports between September and October, how- The unadjusted Duluth Business In- durin g that month . Whi le grain ship · ever, this ri se was Jess than has been dex for the month was 147 (1957-1959 ments by rail were up slightly over the case in recent years. The number = I 00) up one point over the Septem- September, there was a sharp decline in of inquiries is also up by one index ber level. T he October index was the water borne shipments. point over the year ago level and repre- highest on record for that particular Lake cargo other than grain was up sents the hi ghest October in the last month. During October seven of the substantia ll y ove r September, but re- seven years. ind ex's components showed gains over fl ects mostl y th e f lu ctua ti ons that occur On an overall basis, business activity the prev ious month. from ship schedu ling. Iron ore ship- thi s year has continued to average out Ba nk debits were up seven poi nts in ments began to taper in October al- at a hi gher level than for 1964 and the October ignoring the usual decline ex- though the decrease was a little greater October in dex of 147, whi ch was l J perienced in thi s peri od. The value of than normall y experi enced at this time. poin ts higher than the year ago figure, buildin g permits ( 1957 - 1959 doll ars) Department store sales were off by 5 continued that trend. So far for the contin ued to run hi gh with an increased points from the previ ous month and first l O months of 1965, business in number of permits noted for one-family Duluth employment levels were off frac- general as measured by the index has dwellings and garages. T here was also tiona ll y from September, but less than averaged 8% higher than for the corres· a 52 % in crease recorded i.n the value of the historical September-October drop. pondi ng period of 1964. permits issued for repairs and alterations The num be r of persons unemployed In comparin g October activity with to both residential and non-residenti al in October was 1,300 or 2. 8% of the th at of 1964, it was noted that 12 of buil din gs. Posta l receipts were up in labor force. T he October level of job the 15 components recorded gains in Seasona lly Adjusted Index Numbers

Year Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1964 10 8 11 3 117 106 106 99 94 l 03 106 11 8 132 111 1965* 113 11 5 120 116 104 11 4 122 116 121 126 * Base updated to 1955-64 pe riod. All seasona l numbe rs revised. this over-the-yea r compari son. Building activity is at a greater level th an last yea r. P o we r u s age a s rn e as u r e d b y DULUTH BUSINESS INDICATORS - OR IGINAL DATA ki lowatt hours, is up as are iron ore September, October 1965 and October 1964 shipments whicl1 are 11 % ahead of COMPONENT OR IGIN AL DATA 1964 shipments to date. Oct. 1965 Sept. 1965 Oct. 1064 Shipments of lake cargo other than Fre;ght Carload.ngs (Cars)* 14,015 14,087 15,600 grain were ahead of the year-ago fig- Bank Debits (Dol lars in '000's) 178,699 167,716 176,3 17 ures, but here again sh ipping schedules primarily caused the variation in the Building Pe rmits (Adjusted $ Va lu e)** 871,481 1,231,572 l, 168,550 month-to-month compari son. Higher Postal Receipts \Doll a rs )* 254,10 1 202,463 240, l 04 levels of employment in Duluth, m Number of Te le phones (Units)* 66,571 66,348 65,044 creased employment in the iron mining El ectric Powe r (Comm. K.W. H. in '000's) 11 ,029 10 ,965 10,801 industry as well as in the construction El ectric Power (Res. K.W. H. in '000's) 11,601 11,251 10,934 phases of the new taconite plants were I\Jumber of Electric Customers * 33,224 33,175 33,410 noted this year and these factors no Grain Shipments (B ushe ls in '000's) 48,425 65,887 48,081 doubt also contri buted strongly to the Coal Rece ipts (Short Tons in '000's) 526 563 550 sharp r ise in department store sales Iron Ore Shipments (Gross Tons in '000's) 2,122 2,404 1,761 index over 19 64. T he three components O1 hor Lake Cargo (Short Tons) 95,220 76,092 89,504 of the index which showed declines from Duluth Nc nagricultural Empl. (Persons) 4 1,800 4 1,900 39,400 last year were freight carloadings, coal receipts and number of electric custo- Dept. Store Sa les In d ex (Pe rce nt) mers. T he latter two categories ·record- State Meta l Mi ning Empl. (Persons) 12,900 13,500 12,200 " Supplied by Du luth In dustria l Burea u ed declines whi ch were not of particular ** The Bui lding Pe rmits Index is ad justed to refl ect the amount of construction occurring signi ficance. F rei ght carloacl ings were during the month. clown from last year because the 1964 figure represented a heavy " in-transit" movement of grain - an aftermath of DULUTH BUS INES S INDICATORS - INDEX NUMBERS the settlement of the grain strike last yea r. COMPONENT INDE X NU MBERS CHANGE In comparing the D uluth economy to Oct. '64 Sept. '65 Oct. Sept. Oct. to to the U nited States as a whole, it m ay be '65 '65 '64 Oct. '65 Oct. '65 observed that the U .S. Index of Indus- Fre ight Carloadings 123 124 137 14 trial Production (not seasonall y adjusted, Bank Debits 111 104 110 1957 - 59 = I 00) advanced three points + + 7 from September to, Octob'er, that is, Bu ilding Permits 110 93 55 + 55 + 17 from 145 to 148. The U.S. gain in in- Postal Receipts 160 127 15 1 + 9 + 33 dustrial production for October 1965 Number cf Te lephones (Units) 120 120 11 7 + 3 0 over October 1964 is sli ghtly more th an El ectric Power (Comme rcia l) 154 153 15 1 + 3 + 11 percent. However, when measured El ectric Power (Residentia l) 141 137 133 + 8 + 4 by changes in the U.S. G ross National Numbe r of El ectric Customers 99 99 100 0 Product, the overall U.S. gain has been Grain. Shi pments 197 268 195 + 2 71 approxim ately 7 percent in the past o ne Coa l Receipts 159 17 1 167 8 12 yea r period . The comparable Duluth Iro n Ore Shipments 234 266 195 32 business index change was 8 percent. + 39 O ther Lake Cargo 475 380 447 T hese figures woul d in dicate th at Du- + 28 + 95 lu th bas been ga in ing at a rate nearly Dul uth Nonagricultural Empl. 100 101 95 + 5 identica l to the national rate of growth. De pt. Store Sales Index 114 119*** 99 + 15 5 Although seasonal declines are to be State Metal Mi ni ng Empl . 8 1 84 75 + 6 3 expected in the late fa ll and winter OVERALL 147 146 136 + 11 + months, it would appear that both the * **Revised. For Monthly Data Bac k to 1951 and fo r Sou rces of Data , see DULUTH BUSINESS IN DI- Dulu th and National economies will CATORS 1964, a Public ation of the Business a nd Economics Series of the Social Scie nces complete the year at a level well above Res:arch Tr ust Fund, Uni versity of Minnesota, Du lu th, 1964. that of 1964.

UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA, DULUTH DULUTH, MINNESOTA 55812 Non-Profit Organiza.tion U.S. Postage PAID PERMIT NO. 67 Duluth, Minnesota