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Current Status and Perspectives for Development of Climate Services in Armenia

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Current Status and Perspectives for Development of Climate Services in Armenia MINISTRY OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA ARMENIAN STATE HYDROMETEOROLOGY AND MONITORING SERVICE CURRENT STATUS AND PERSPECTIVES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE SERVICES IN ARMENIA YEREVAN 2013 ՀՏԴ 551.5 ԳՄԴ 26.23 Կ 547 Կ 547 ԿԼԻՄԱՅԱԿԱՆ ԾԱՌԱՅՈՒԹՅՈՒՆՆԵՐԻ ՆԵՐԿԱ ՎԻՃԱԿԸ ԵՎ ԶԱՐԳԱՑՄԱՆ ՀԵՌԱՆԿԱՐՆԵՐԸ ՀԱՅԱՍՏԱՆՈՒՄ: ՀԱՅԱՍՏԱՆԻ ՀԱՆՐԱՊԵՏՈՒԹՅԱՆ ԱՐՏԱԿԱՐԳ ԻՐԱՎԻՃԱԿՆԵՐԻ ՆԱԽԱՐԱՐՈՒԹՅՈՒՆ ՀԻԴՐՈՕԴԵՐԵՎՈՒԹԱԲԱՆՈՒԹՅԱՆ ԵՎ ՄՈՆԻՏՈՐԻՆԳԻ ՊԵՏԱԿԱՆ ԾԱՌԱՅՈՒԹՅՈՒՆ.-ԵՐ.: ԼՈՒՍԱԲԱՑ, 2013.- 40 ԷՋ: CURRENT STATUS AND PERSPECTIVES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE SERVICES IN ARMENIA The report has been developed within the framework of the UNDP-GEF/00060737 “Enabling Activities for Preparation of Armenia’s Third National Communication to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)” Project. Editors: Levon Vardanyan, Hamlet Melkonyan, Anahit Hovsepyan Consultant: Diana Harutyunyan Contributing authors: Anahit Hovsepyan, Hamlet Melkonyan, Valentina Grigoryan, Zaruhi Petrosyan, Dianna Hovhannisyan, Artur Gevorgyan, Elena Khalatyan, Ashkhen Iritsyan, Susanna Shindyan, Shushan Baghdasaryan, Edgar Misakyan, Satenik Nazaryan, Gagik Surenyan, Armine Sahakyan Translated by: Arusyak Stepanyan ՀՏԴ 551.5 ԳՄԴ 26.23 ISBN 978-9939-69-050-6 ¡ «ՀԻԴՐՈՄԵՏԾԱՌԱՅՈՒԹՅՈՒՆ», 2013 Abbreviations BAMS Bulletin of American Meteorological Society CAMS_OPI Climate Anomaly Monitoring System Outgoing Precipitation Index CLIPS Climate Information and Prediction Services CMIP5 Climate Models Intercomparison Project-5 CM-SAF Satellite Application Facility for Climate Monitoring CPT Climate Predictability Tool CRM TASP Climate Risk Management Technical Assistance Support Project CWS Climate Watch System DAWBEE Data Access Western Balkan Eastern European Countries DBMS Database Management System DWD Deutcher Wetterdienst ECA&D European Climate Assessment and Dataset EUMETSAT European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN GAW Global Atmosphere Watch GCOS Global Climate Observation System GCM General Circulation Model GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GFCS Global Framework Climate Service GIEWS Global Information and Early Warning System GIS Geographic Information System GISSER Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E-R GPCP Global Precipitation Climatology Project GrADS Grid Analysis and Display System GSN GCOS Surface Network GUAN Global Upper Air Network HRM High Resolution Model ICH Intergovernmental Council for Hydrometeorology IDL Interactive Data Language IRI International Research Institute LRF Long Range Forecast MEDARE Mediterranean Data Rescue MES Ministry of Emergency Situations MSG METEOSAT Second Generation NEACC North EaurAsian Climate Centre NEACOF North EaurAsian Climate Outlook Forum NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NCEP/NCAR National Centers Environmental Prediction/ National Center Atmospheric Research NCDC National Climatic Data Center NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Service NVE Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies RA Republic of Armenia RAVI Regional Association VI RCC Regional Climate Centres RCOF Regional Climate Outlook Forums 3 RTC Regional Training Centres SACHE Scientific-Applied Centre on Hydrometeorology and Ecology SEECOF SouthEast European Climate Outlook Forum SNC Second National Communications SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention Climate Change USAID United States Agency for International Development WB World Bank WCP World Climate Programme WCRP World Climate Research Programme WMO World Meteorological Organization WOUDC World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre WRF Weather Research and Forecasting 4 CONTENTS 1. The current state and recent developments in the systematic observations and climate studies in Armenia during 2007-2012 ........................................................................................................................................................ 7 1.1 Legislative and institutional framework, including financial and human resources ............................................ 7 1.2 Structure of Armstatehydromet ................................................................................................................................. 7 1.3 Human and financial resources .................................................................................................................................. 7 1.4 Collaboration with international, regional and national organizations and programmes in the area of climate services and climate change studies. ................................................................................................................................ 9 1. 5 Current state of hydrometeorological observation network, its’ methodological and technical status .......... 10 1.6 Processing and archiving of meteorological data and information ....................................................................... 12 1.7 The mechanisms of provision of climate information. Communication and cooperation with stakeholders, possibilities of improvement .......................................................................................................................................... 13 1.8 Provision of specialized climate information ..................................................................................................... 13 1.9 Website of Armstatehydromet ............................................................................................................................ 14 1.10 Assessment of stakeholders’ needs based on survey results............................................................................. 14 2. Climate services at Armstatehydromet ......................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Global framework for climate services .................................................................................................................... 15 2.2 Climate activities and research ................................................................................................................................ 16 2.2.1 Climate monitoring ............................................................................................................................................ 17 2.2.2 Updated norms of various climate parameters ................................................................................................ 18 2.2.3 Long range forecasting ....................................................................................................................................... 19 2.2.4 Climate change studies ...................................................................................................................................... 19 3 Climate risks and hydrometeorological vulnerability of the territory of Armenia............................................. 22 3.1 Hydrometerological hazardous events .................................................................................................................... 22 3.2 Early warning system................................................................................................................................................ 23 3.3 Short range forecasting ............................................................................................................................................. 23 3.4 Climate anomalies and Climate Watch System ...................................................................................................... 23 3.4 Hydrometeorological vulnerability of the territory of Armenia .......................................................................... 24 3.5 Climate extremes ....................................................................................................................................................... 26 3.6 Evaluation of drought conditions ............................................................................................................................ 27 3.7 Investigation of wind field ....................................................................................................................................... 28 4. Climate risks of Vayots Dzor marz ............................................................................................................... 28 4.1 Overview of climate conditions of the region ........................................................................................................ 28 4.2 Climate variability and climate change in Vayotz Dzor marz .............................................................................. 29 4.3 Weather and climate extreme events in the region ............................................................................................... 32 4.4 Assessment of droughts ............................................................................................................................................ 34 5. Applied Climate Research ........................................................................................................................... 35 5.1 Vulnerability and adaptability of wine-growing regions ...................................................................................... 35 5.2 Climate change
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