Current Status and Perspectives for Development of Climate Services in Armenia

MINISTRY OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA ARMENIAN STATE HYDROMETEOROLOGY AND MONITORING SERVICE

CURRENT STATUS AND PERSPECTIVES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE SERVICES IN ARMENIA

YEREVAN 2013

ՀՏԴ 551.5 ԳՄԴ 26.23 Կ 547

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The report has been developed within the framework of the UNDP-GEF/00060737 “Enabling Activities for Preparation of Armenia’s Third National Communication to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)” Project.

Editors: Levon Vardanyan, Hamlet Melkonyan, Anahit Hovsepyan

Consultant: Diana Harutyunyan

Contributing authors: Anahit Hovsepyan, Hamlet Melkonyan, Valentina Grigoryan, Zaruhi Petrosyan, Dianna Hovhannisyan, Artur Gevorgyan, Elena Khalatyan, Ashkhen Iritsyan, Susanna Shindyan, Shushan Baghdasaryan, Edgar Misakyan, Satenik Nazaryan, Gagik Surenyan, Armine Sahakyan

Translated by: Arusyak Stepanyan

ՀՏԴ 551.5 ԳՄԴ 26.23

ISBN 978-9939-69-050-6 ¡ «ՀԻԴՐՈՄԵՏԾԱՌԱՅՈՒԹՅՈՒՆ», 2013

Abbreviations

BAMS Bulletin of American Meteorological Society CAMS_OPI Climate Anomaly Monitoring System Outgoing Precipitation Index CLIPS Climate Information and Prediction Services CMIP5 Climate Models Intercomparison Project-5 CM-SAF Satellite Application Facility for Climate Monitoring CPT Climate Predictability Tool CRM TASP Climate Risk Management Technical Assistance Support Project CWS Climate Watch System DAWBEE Data Access Western Balkan Eastern European Countries DBMS Database Management System DWD Deutcher Wetterdienst ECA&D European Climate Assessment and Dataset EUMETSAT European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN GAW Global Atmosphere Watch GCOS Global Climate Observation System GCM General Circulation Model GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GFCS Global Framework Climate Service GIEWS Global Information and Early Warning System GIS Geographic Information System GISSER Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E-R GPCP Global Precipitation Climatology Project GrADS Grid Analysis and Display System GSN GCOS Surface Network GUAN Global Upper Air Network HRM High Resolution Model ICH Intergovernmental Council for Hydrometeorology IDL Interactive Data Language IRI International Research Institute LRF Long Range Forecast MEDARE Mediterranean Data Rescue MES Ministry of Emergency Situations MSG METEOSAT Second Generation NEACC North EaurAsian Climate Centre NEACOF North EaurAsian Climate Outlook Forum NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NCEP/NCAR National Centers Environmental Prediction/ National Center Atmospheric Research NCDC National Climatic Data Center NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Service NVE Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies RA Republic of Armenia RAVI Regional Association VI RCC Regional Climate Centres RCOF Regional Climate Outlook Forums

RTC Regional Training Centres SACHE Scientific-Applied Centre on Hydrometeorology and Ecology SEECOF SouthEast European Climate Outlook Forum SNC Second National Communications SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention Climate Change USAID United States Agency for International Development WB World Bank WCP World Climate Programme

WCRP World Climate Research Programme WMO World Meteorological Organization WOUDC World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre WRF Weather Research and Forecasting

CONTENTS 1. The current state and recent developments in the systematic observations and climate studies in Armenia during 2007-2012 ...... 7 1.1 Legislative and institutional framework, including financial and human resources ...... 7 1.2 Structure of Armstatehydromet ...... 7 1.3 Human and financial resources ...... 7 1.4 Collaboration with international, regional and national organizations and programmes in the area of climate services and climate change studies...... 9 1. 5 Current state of hydrometeorological observation network, its’ methodological and technical status ...... 10 1.6 Processing and archiving of meteorological data and information ...... 12 1.7 The mechanisms of provision of climate information. Communication and cooperation with stakeholders, possibilities of improvement ...... 13 1.8 Provision of specialized climate information ...... 13 1.9 Website of Armstatehydromet ...... 14 1.10 Assessment of stakeholders’ needs based on survey results...... 14 2. Climate services at Armstatehydromet ...... 15 2.1 Global framework for climate services ...... 15 2.2 Climate activities and research ...... 16 2.2.1 Climate monitoring ...... 17 2.2.2 Updated norms of various climate parameters ...... 18 2.2.3 Long range forecasting ...... 19 2.2.4 Climate change studies ...... 19 3 Climate risks and hydrometeorological vulnerability of the territory of Armenia...... 22 3.1 Hydrometerological hazardous events ...... 22 3.2 Early warning system...... 23 3.3 Short range forecasting ...... 23 3.4 Climate anomalies and Climate Watch System ...... 23 3.4 Hydrometeorological vulnerability of the territory of Armenia ...... 24 3.5 Climate extremes ...... 26 3.6 Evaluation of drought conditions ...... 27 3.7 Investigation of wind field ...... 28 4. Climate risks of Vayots Dzor marz ...... 28 4.1 Overview of climate conditions of the region ...... 28 4.2 Climate variability and climate change in Vayotz Dzor marz ...... 29 4.3 Weather and climate extreme events in the region ...... 32 4.4 Assessment of droughts ...... 34 5. Applied Climate Research ...... 35 5.1 Vulnerability and adaptability of wine-growing regions ...... 35 5.2 Climate change and health ...... 36 5.3 Study of water resources of Armenia ...... 37 6. Perspectives for further improvement of climate services in Armenia ...... 37 Scientific publications in international journals ...... 39

SUMMARY

For the preparation of Armenia’s Third National Communication to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change the current status of climate change systematic observation, data management and provision has been assessed, improvement needs and potential have been identified, as well as main climate risks and their possible changes have been evaluated, and in the result number of projects were developed aimed at improving climate observation system, including technical and professional capacities and through this further improving the climate services in Armenia. Hereinafter, the review of works, scientific studies and the results achieved by “Hydromet Service” SNCO of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Armenia (Armstatehydromet) during 2007-2012 are presented. In particular, the legislative system and institutional structure of the Service, the current state of National observation network, including methodological and technical capacities and challenges faced, are described in subsequent chapters. The dynamics of hydrometeorological hazardous events and climate extremes during the last 30 years and the existing early warning systems are analyzed in detail, and Climate Watch System is introduced. In order to explore the current state of the use of climate information by main users and stakeholders and reveal their needs a survey was conducted in four Marzes of Armenia. Based on the findings, the ways have been proposed on the improvement of the products, as well as the facilitation of information flow from producer to user, including wider use of the internet capacities, particularly the redesigned web site of the Service. Number of scientific investigations related to climate change in Armenia was conducted by the scientists of Armstatehydromet during the last 5 years, the main results and findings as well as the shortcomings and requirements are presented in this report. Collaboration with regional and international organizations, NMHSs, other key partners, work implemented within the framework of this collaboration is described in detail. The climate extreme indices have been computed for all the locations, where meteorological stations are operating, and the dynamics of the main indices have been analyzed. Hydrometeorological vulnerability of Armenia has been studied and the results are presented in the report. Climate features of Vayots Dzor marz, which is one of the agricultural regions of Armenia and is of great interest for stakeholders, have been studied in detail, particularly climate anomalies and trends of main climate variables, future projections, vulnerability of the region, assessment of drought conditions, changes in wind patterns, etc. The results of the above mentioned studies have been reflected in research papers, published in various scientific journals and conference proceedings. Some of the papers published during the last 5 years are presented in the report. Based on the needs and requirements on further improvement of climate services revealed during the implementation of the above mentioned UNDP programme, a number of project proposals have been elaborated, among those are “Improvement of systematic observations, climate monitoring and long range forecasting system in Armenia”, “Establishment of drought monitoring and prediction system” and “Elaboration and improvement of the methodology of water balance assessment for the Lake Sevan”. It is expected that implementation of these projects will result in essential improvement of the level and quality of climate services and reduction of climate risks in Armenia.

1. The current state and recent developments in the systematic observations and climate studies in Armenia during 2007-2012

1.1 Legislative and institutional framework, including financial and human resources Armenian Hydrometeorological and Monitoring Service State Non-commercial Organization (Armstatehydromet) of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Armenia accomplishes its activities of the state significance, in conformity with the work programme endorsed by the government of Armenia(Resolution N 1129-N of the RA, dated September 27th 2007), in coherence with the international Conventions and agreements. One of the key legal documents which regulates the activities of Armstatehydromet is the Law of the RA “On the hydrometeorological activities”, as well as the Resolution 1872-N «On the establishment of the Armenian State Hydrometeorological and Monitoring Service State Non-commercial Organization and endorsement of its Statute». The activities of Armstatehydromet are guided by the Convention of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), by the CIS intergovernmental agreement on “The collaboration in the area of hydrometeorology” and several other resolutions and agreements.

1.2 Structure of Armstatehydromet In order to achieve more effective management and implementation of activities of the Service a substantial reorganization was conducted at Armstatehydromet in 2011, which resulted in establishment of a new entity “Hydrology Centre”. Therefore, currently Armstatehydromet consists of four main Centres, i.e. Meteorological, Hydrological, Technical and Scientific Applied Centre on Hydrometeorology and Ecology, as well as several other divisions, like Telecommunication, Database Management and Administration etc. (Fig. 1.1). The new structure allows organizing the activities in more effective manner and better managing operative and scientific-applied works.

1.3 Human and financial resources Recently the administration of the Service implied a reform/reorganization, due to which a number of positions have been dismissed by 15%. In the result in 2012 the number of personnel reduced up to 615 employees, including 455 observers. In the headquarters 57% of the staff has higher education (Bachelors, or Masters Degree), 5% have obtained academic Degree, and only 17% have a secondary education. 17 employees are involved in research, conducting scientific-applied studies on climate variability and change. The personnel is being replenished by the graduates from the Geography faculty of the Yerevan State University, as well as from the Yerevan State University on Architecture and Construction. The staff with secondary/professional education is mainly from the Agriculture College. Armstatehydromet implies a strategy of developing the existing human capacities. Every year, in accordance with the approved programme, Armstatehydromet conducts training courses to ensure knowledge transfer from the senior personnel to the junior staff. Taking the advantage of the courses and curricula offered by the WMO, several employees have passed training and education courses in the WMO Regional Training Centres (RTC) in Russian Federation, France, Germany, China, Turkey, Israel, etc., depending on the requirements of the Service staff in specific courses, and availability of funding. Nevertheless, all the above mentioned training and education courses do not fully meet the requirements of the Service with regard to developing human capacities for the improvement of climate services. It is worth noting an important obstacle in taking the advantage of international training courses and programmes, i.e. the poor knowledge of English among the personnel, that needs to be urgently overcome. Furthermore, it is necessary to conduct long term training and knowledge exchange programs with the engagement of international experts, inviting them to deliver lectures in the Service. 7

That is considered to be the most efficient way. There is an urgent need to improve the skills of the employees in climate models implementation, methodology of long range forecasting, principles of downscaling, climate monitoring, utilization of comprehensive tools, software for developing the climate products (GIS, R-statistics, GrADS, IDL, etc.). Another important problem raised during the last decades in the Service is the brain drain due to the extremely low salaries. During the recent decade the government allocated funds in the budget of Armstatehydromet that mainly cover salary and maintenance expenses of the Service. This amount has slightly increased in last five years, reaching 533.6 thousand AMD. Nevertheless the average salary is very low; in 2012 it was 51000 AMD, which is equivalent to about 120 USD.

Scientific Technical Board Аdministrative Director depatrment

Financial and Program Experts Committee Development Division

Centralized Accounting division Deputy Deputy Deputy Director Director Director

Secretariat

Scientific-applied Service of Centre of Centre of Hydrology Technical Centre Centre for telecommunic Database Service Meteorology Hydrometeorology ations

Meteorological Hydrological Gauges and Telecommun forecasting forecasts Climate research computer ication Data recovery division division maintenance system division division maintenance State water cadastre di i i Meteorological and balance Applied Standardization, division division climatology metrology and Data/info. Data input division calibration transmission division Agro- division division meteorological Water resources forecasts division Hydrometeorologi Data cal models Radio management development and Agrometeorologica Hydrography and communica- division implementation l division tion group hydrometry division division

Heliohydrophysics and atmospheric research division HydroMeteorological Hydrometeorolo- Radiology information service gicalFund division and marketing division

Figure 1.1 Structure of Armstatehydromet service There is a little percentage of the income from commercial services, national, international research projects and programmes. In particular, until 2010 the Ministry of Education and Science

8 funded research projects related to climate applications in agriculture, water resources, renewable energy, environment, etc.

1.4 Collaboration with international, regional and national organizations and programmes in the area of climate services and climate change studies.

Armstatehydromet implements a policy of continuous strengthening existing international collaboration and partnership, as well as establishing new partnership relations in the area of climate, meteorology and hydrology. Within the WMO Convention Armstatehydromet is actively involved in the WMO programmes, such as World Climate Programme (WCP), including “Climate Information and Prediction Services”, World Climate Research Programme, Global Climate Observing System, Disaster Risk Reduction, Hydrology and Water Resources, Technical Cooperation, Education and training and several other Programmes. In the framework of WCP the Service contributes to the preparation of various publications, bulletins, e.g. RAVI Annual Bulletin, WMO/BAMS State of climate, providing an overview on the climate conditions over the Armenia region during the previous year and observed extreme weather and climate events. Since 2009 Armstatehydromet has been integrated into Climate Monitoring Node of the RAVI Regional Climate Centres (RCC) Network, providing monthly, seasonal, annual monitoring products in form of maps (temperature, precipitation anomalies) and text description for South Caucasus regions. These products are posted in the RAVI RCC-CM web site. A number of meteorological stations are included in the regional and global networks and regularly provide observed data to Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), Global Upper Air Network (GUAN), GCOS Surface Network (GSN), Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW). Armstatehydromet also contributes to the implementation of WCRP Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) project. Armstatehydromet actively participates in the joint research activities on the long range forecasting, climate variability and climate change with the North EurAsian Climate Centre (NEACC), within the framework of CIS Intergovernmental Council for Hydrometeorology (ICH). Armstatehydromet signed bilateral agreements with the NMHSs of developed countries (Russian Federation, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Norway, etc.) and performs joint activities in the area of climate change, technical modernization, exchange of experience, participation in conferences, workshops, etc. In particular, an agreement on the cooperation signed between the Armstatehydromet and Roshydromet comprises of the following joint activities: scientific-technical collaboration, operative data exchange, provision of weather forecasts with 72 hour lead time to Armstatehydromet, exchange of methodologies and the expertise in the area of meteorology, climatology, hydrology and etc. Within the collaboration agreement with the German Meteorological Service (DWD) and the EUMETSAT Armstatehydromet conducted a research project on the use of satellite derived products (CM SAF) for monitoring of climate over South Caucasus region. During last five years Armstatehydromet actively participated in a number of climate related projects initiated by UNDP, such as “Armenia – Improving Energy Efficiency of Municipal Heating and Hot Water Supply”, “Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts in Mountain Forest Ecosystems of Armenia”, UNDP-BCPR/ADPC “Climate Risk Management Technical Assistance Support Project” and etc. There are number of other ongoing projects and programmes initiated and funded by USAID, FAO, WB. Armstatehydromet is engaged also in the numerous regional projects and programmes in the area of hydrology, e.g. EU projects on the “Environmental protection of international river basins”, “Transboundary management of Kura river basin – 3rd phase”, USAID “Clean energy and water”, UNDP/GEF “Reduction of degradation in the Kura-Araks transboundary river basins”. A significant

9 technical support was provided to Armstatehydromet within the framework of the international and regional programmes, the recent contributions are presented in the table 1.1.

Table 1.1Technical support provided to Armstatehydromet during 2007-2012 within the framework of international and regional collaboration programmes. Country- Technical Support Year Donor organization provider Radiosounding systemSP10,M10 radiosounds 2012 MODEM France 4 sets of meteorological instruments with the 2012 WMO Germany psychometric screen 3 IMETOS Weather and7soil moisture and 2011 EC, FAO Austria temperature Automatic stations Automatic Weather Station 2010 WMO Russian Federation «DAWBEE» system for weather charts 2010 EUMETSAT Germany transmission and processing Automated snow gauge station 2007 NVE Norway Automatic hydrological stations (four) 2007 USAID USA

1. 5 Current state of hydrometeorological observation network, its’ methodological and technical status

Armstatehydromet performs observations on the atmosphere, surface water resources, soil, agricultural crops, radiation background, upper-air sounding, heliophysics including ozone, ultraviolet radiation and actinometry. The observation network comprises of 47 meteorological stations (including 3 specialized and 34 agrometeorological), 7 hydrological river basin stations and 94 hydrological gauges (including 4 lake and 4 reservoir sites). During 2007-2012 two meteorological and 2 hydrological stations have been re-opened. At present the technical status of the equipment at all the observation sites is qualified as operational. Nevertheless, technical resources of 65% of all the instruments have expired and need to be replaced. Currently 47 meteorological stations, including 6 high mountain stations, operate across the country. Three stations provide CLIMAT reports to the World Climate Data Centre. In the current network 12 stations are high-mountainous and located at the elevations over 2000 m above sea level, out of them 6 are remote and hard-to-reach stations. One of those stations, Aragats high-mountainous (3229m above sea level, established in 1929) is the only station in the Caucasus region located at such high altitude with long time series of temperature, precipitation etc., therefore it plays important role in the investigations of regional climate variability and change. In 2008 it was included in the GCOS Surface Network (GSN) and since then provides historical data and monthly updates (CLIMAT) to the network.

1% 450-1000m 13% 4% 10% 1000-1500m 16% 19% 450-1000m 19% 1500-2000m 1000-1500m 26% 1500-2000m 2000-2500m 26% 38% 2000-2500m 28% 2500-3000 ≥3000m ≥3000m

a) b) Figure 1.2 Distribution (percentage) of (a) elevation zones over Armenia and (b) distribution of meteorological stations located at respective zones

Analyzing the spatial coverage of meteorological stations by the elevation zones versus the distribution of these zones by percentage of total territory of the country (Fig. 1.2), it was found that most of vertical zones are quite well represented by stations and number of stations is proportional to the area of each zone. Nevertheless, there is a gap in the vertical distribution of stations, since the zone 2500-3000m a.s.l., which occupies about 13 percent of the entire territory, is not presented by any station. Therefore, it is highly important to fill in this gap re-opening stations, earlier operated at these altitudes. The spatial distribution of meteorological observation network, including all the stations and rain gauge sites ever operated over Armenia is presented on the Fig. 1.3. The observed data from all these sites are being used in climate research after passing quality control and homogeneity test.

Figure1.3 Meteorological observation networks in Armenia

Agrometeorological observations are conducted at 40 meteorological stations, monitoring the growth of about 30 cultivated plants as well as agrometeorological conditions over the meadows and pastures. Recently 10 soil moisture automatic sensors have been installed at selected stations, located in agriculture zones (table 1.2). The monitoring of the ozone content is conducted at two locations, i.e. Amberd high mountainous and Yerevan Arabkir stations. The data are being regularly transmitted to the WMO World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC). These ozone measurements are of regional importance, since these are the only two stations over the entire South Caucasus region. In terms of heliogeophysical information the Service estimates the intensity of the ultraviolet radiation and its predicted value on the basis of the certain location altitude and cloudiness. The information on the solar intensity and the geomagnetic conditions are received from the Institute of Applied Geophysics of the Russian Federation. In terms of actinometry, solar radiation balance, incoming and reflected radiation parameters are measured in five locations over the country. These measurements properly represent actinometric situation across the country. Upper air measurements are carried out in the Yerevan aerological station, launching radiozondes once per day. This station is included in the GUAN network and transfers the measurement data to the global data centres. The availability of these data is highly important for the investigation of heat fluxes not only on the surface but also at the upper layers.

The radiological conditions of air, water and soil are measured at 34 meteorological stations. The background gamma-radiation is continuously monitored around the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant within the diameter of about 70km. The hydrological quantitative measurements are conducted at 94 gauge sites (including 86 river, 4 reservoir and 4 lake sites), which belong to 7 main river basins hydrological stations (Fig.1.4).

Figure 1.4. The spatial distribution of hydrological river basin network over Armenia Meteorological observations at manned stations in Armenia are accomplished according to the requirements and instructions on the operation of hydro-meteorological stations and posts, as well as Directive on global observations system (Volume 1, Published in 2003). The accuracy of equipment and procedures of monitoring are in line with the WMO requirements and instructions (Manual No. 8, WMO “Meteorological Instruments and Methods of Operation”). Until 1935 measurements were taken twice per day, from 1936 to 1965 the frequency increased up to four times, and starting from 1966 meteorological observations at all stations are conducted 8 times a day, i.e. once in every three hours. Specialized department at the Armstatehydromet provides maintenance services and ensures the proper operation of the measuring instruments and sensors. For the accuracy of the measurements the calibration of the instruments is carried out at the regional calibration centre. In order to reveal gaps and needs of the observation network the Service regularly performs the control inspection of the stations.

1.6 Processing and archiving of meteorological data and information Currently at the Armstatehydromet the CLICOM system with DBMS DataEase undergoes an upgrade with CLiWare automated system, which has several advantages, e.g. allows operating in online regime, use open source codes, manage metadata (history of stations), collect and archive real-time data from stations, perform data quality control, computation of several climatic indices, archive unlimited amount of data. Synoptic and daily data from all meteorological stations are stored in the database. About 30% of data has more than 60 years’ time series, 10% - more than 80 years, 5 stations have time series more than 100 years. Current method of data quality control is a non-real-time and is mostly made manually after transmitting the data from the database, therefore it still contains big amount of erroneous data, which is due to poor quality check system in CLICOM. Since 2012 Armstatehydromet initiated the establishment of computer network at the meteorological stations that allows transmission of observed data from stations through e- communication directly to the data base. 12

In spite on the actions taken the current data base still needs further development. One of the existing challenges is a big number of erroneous data in the historical time series. The technical documentation of the stations (technical passport) is not digitized and is endangered, although it contains very important information about the station operations and inspections that have been conducted since the opening of the station. The information contained in the technical passports is vital for revealing in homogeneity in the time series, and correcting the data. Therefore, there is an urgent need to rescue this valuable source of information. Actinometric and agrometeorological data are digitized and stored in excel files; however there is a need to install a database management system for these data as well. In 2011“Reki-Regime” software (Russian Federation) was tested for developing the hydrological data base. Nevertheless in order to complete this work and make an operational hydrological data base it needs a respective funding for purchasing the license and other application tools. Along with the database, historical meteorological records from 1880 to 1992 are stored in annual books and table sheets, and from 1992 till present in station monthly books; agrometeorological observations are stored in books starting from 1949; hydrological data - in yearbooks starting from 1926. Generally all these paper copies are endangered, urgent actions are to be taken to rescue the big amount of valuable historical data. This documentation is stored in the hydrometeorological funds, which also contains a library of the specialized national and international publications, articles and books.

1.7 The mechanisms of provision of climate information. Communication and cooperation with stakeholders, possibilities of improvement Provision of data and information to stakeholders by Armstatehydromet is regulated by RA laws, legal acts, Armstatehydromet statute, orders of the director and contracts concluded with individual organizations, as well as WMO Resolutions N 40 and 25.The climate data/information to state government bodies, with some limitations to educational and scientific institutions, as well as weather forecast and warnings about expected hazards to private organizations and the population are provided free of charge. As per request of users, respective divisions of Armstatehydromet prepare and provide observation data, specialized climate information, short range, long range, climate forecast and relevant specialized consultation on the application of information. The share of information provided to different sectors of economy during the last five years is presented in figure 1.5.

Energy Other

Law enforcement Bodies

Connection Education State Government Food and Authorit y MES Industry Bodies Household Health care Construction Geodesy and Cartography Insurance

Agriculture Transport

Figure 1.5 Percentage distribution of information provided by Armstatehydromet to specific sectors of economy.

1.8 Provision of specialized climate information During the last decades a considerable growth of demand in climate information has been reported, thus the improvement of preparation and provision of climate information is one of the priority issues of Armstatehydromet.

During 2007-2012 variety of specialized climate information has been provided to decision- makers, government bodies, as well as a number of stakeholder organizations and individuals. The chapter “Construction climatology” of the Building Code of RA II-7.61-96 was upgraded based on the time series of climate variables including data until 2011. The work was implemented in the frames of UNDP/GEF/00035799 “Armenia – Improving Energy Efficiency of Municipal Heating and Hot Water Supply” project; the results were discussed and presented to stakeholders and interested organizations. Specialized climate parameters and microclimate maps were developed and provided for the elaboration of the general plan of several towns of Armenia (Kapan, Martiros, Jermuk, Vayk, Talin, Aparan, Tatev, Areni, Tsaghkahovit, etc.). General climate information, as well as specialized parameters and consultations were provided for planning, implementation of construction works and exploitation of the new power block of “Yerevan thermal power plant”, as well as construction of a new block of Metsamor nuclear power plant. Armstatehydromet was also involved in technical-economic working group of the nuclear power plant new block construction and periodically provides necessary climate and hydrological data and information. “Haynakhagits” company was provided with a number of climate parameters at the request of RA Ministry of Defense for the construction of a helicopter platform in the territory of the newly built complex of the ministry. Armstatehydromet conducted research concerning microclimate and atmospheric condition for air pollution dispersion over Kajaran town for the elaboration of environment protection action plan. Necessary information and specialized consultation were provided to graduate and postgraduate students for developing their theses. The climate data and information is distributed by different means, such as TV, Radio, newspapers, web sites, telephone connection, fax, e-mail, and automatic answering machine. The form of provision of the information depends on its content, however it is usually provided in form of text, table, graphic, map, etc.

1.9 Website of Armstatehydromet The website is one of the most widely used means of spreading information, as well as raising the visibility of the service. At present the improvement of both form and content and reorganization of the website of Armstatehydromet is being implemented. Weather, climate, hydrology and agrometeorology related information will be reflected in different pages. In particular, the climate page is envisaged to have diverse climate information, maps, analyses, the findings of research studies implemented recently by international and national scientists on the climate variability and change over the territory of Armenia, trends and future scenarios. The monitoring of current conditions of the climate system will be of utmost importance. Electronic versions of published reports will be uploaded in the website. Information of the website will be periodically updated in accordance with the availability of new output.

1.10 Assessment of stakeholders’ needs based on survey results For further improving the quality and content of climate information it is necessary to be informed on the use of that information by different users as well as their needs and requirements. For that purpose a survey on “Use of Climate information by stakeholders and awareness about climate change” was realized in Shirak, Gegharkunik, Vayots Dzor and Lori regions, the areas more vulnerable to climate, in accordance with a questionnaire developed by the experts of Armstatehydromet. The total number of the survey respondents was 100, including 32%employees of regional services of the MES, 28% farmers, individual peasants, 25% representatives of non-government organizations related to nature protection, 15% representatives of educational institutions. Summing up the survey results, it was concluded that 95% of the respondents are familiar with climate change phenomenon, and more than the half answered, that there’re some visible manifestations of climate change in their region. The changes of air temperature and precipitations, as well as of 14 extreme climate phenomena are marked as indicators of climate change. 43% consider that the air temperature rises; moreover 64% observe air temperature rise during the summer months, whereas 38% indicate warmer winter months. In terms of precipitation amount 53% of the respondents noticed precipitation diminution in summer, whereas 56% indicate rise of spring precipitation. The survey respondents mention frequency of weather and climate hazards among climate change manifestations; moreover they mention the growth of the frequency of hail (53%), strong wind (48%), freezing (38%), drought (49%), and prolonged heat wave (31%). 60% of the survey respondents are especially concerned about water recourses diminution, 36% about frequency of forest fires, 61% about frequent pest outbreaks and diseases in forest ecosystem. In the sense of use of climate information 74% of survey respondents answered that they use it every day.79% are interested in weather forecast, 54% in current climate conditions, 41% in long range (monthly, seasonal and annual) forecast, and 38% in climate change scenarios. Almost half of the survey respondents mentioned that they need explanation and specialized consultation on the application of climate information provided by Armstatehydromet specialists. 64% of people interrogated indicated that they get climate information from Armstatehydromet, 46% - from the internet, and 38% from mass media means. To the question, whether climate change factor was taken into account in their activities, 61% answered, that it’s not considered, but they need it. Only 38% find it possible to implement climate adaptation activities, and 71% indicate that lack of financial means prevent it. An important conclusion is that 40% of survey respondents lack for knowledge about the use of climate information, and for almost 30% that information doesn’t present an interest. The following issues proposed by the surveyed people are main findings of the survey: 1. Financial investments are necessary for strengthening the infrastructure which is aimed at reducing the threat of unfavorable climate hazards and taking preventive measures. 2. It is necessary to elaborate a detailed and reliable adaptation plan for basic vulnerable sectors of economy in order to confront climate change negative impact. 3. It is necessary to create conditions for effective and reliable operation of early warning system in order to timely provide the stakeholders with information on expected hazards. 4. The provision of long range forecast (monthly, seasonal, climate) is of utmost importance, as is it necessary for effective organization and planning of economic activities for all the sectors of economy. 5. It is necessary to conduct climate research analyzing climate change impact on different sectors and ecosystems and the provision of information on the received results to the users. 6. The elaboration and provision of realistic climate change scenarios to stakeholders is of great importance. 7. It is necessary to include climate change factor in strategic plan and on its basis elaborate the implementation plans for different sectors of economy.

2. Climate services at Armstatehydromet

2.1 Global framework for climate services The major outcome of the Third World Climate Conference held in Geneva in 2009 was the adoption of the declaration on the establishment of Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). During the extraordinary session of WMO Congress held in Geneva in October 2012 GFCS implementation plan and structure were approved. In 2013 Armenia has become a member of the Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services - the authoritative body of GFCS, and the director of Armstatehydromet is a representative of Armenia in the Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services. GFCS will have four major components: Observation and Monitoring; Research, and Modeling and Prediction; a Climate Services Information System; a User Interface Platform and capacity building and development necessary for all these components (figure 2.1).

Users, Government, Private Sector, Research, Agriculture, Water, Health, Construction, Disaster reduction, Environment, Tourism, Transport...

User Interface

Climate Services Information System

Observation and Research, modelling monitoring and prediction

CAPACITYBUILDING

Figure 2.1 Major components of the Global Framework for Climate Services

Basic objectives of GFCS activity are the following:  Add investments in the sphere of climate observations and monitoring for the purpose of strengthening climate monitoring network;  Develop various tailored climate services and promote their use in socioeconomic planning; Pay more attention to climate forecasts- for adapting to climate variability and climate change and for managing the risks related to it;  Ensure better understanding of the present problems conditioned by climate change and climate variability by making use of reliable climate information;  Raise to a higher level the cooperation between climate information providers and users, paying special attention to environment, agriculture, water resources, health care, disaster/climate risk management, energy, tourism, transport and other spheres;  Accelerate the process of climate monitoring and forecasting produced by WMO regional climate centres on a regional scale, contribute to their expansion, in particular, paying primary attention to satisfaction of climate needs of developing and least developed countries;  Develop and improve climate models of new generation, which will give the opportunity to reduce the risks for working out long-term adaptation measures;  Strengthen scientific research on climate and implement new technologies and models. Armstatehydromet as the only state authority providing climate services in Armenia carries out its climate activities in line with GFCS components and objectives listed above.

2.2 Climate activities and research Scientific studies on climate variability and climate change are continuously conducted at Armstatehydromet by the scientists of climate research, applied climatology and model development and experimentation divisions at Scientific-Applied Centre on Hydrometeorology and Ecology (SACHE). The results of the studies are reflected in the reports, published in scientific journals and provided to the appropriate international and state national organizations. Specialized climate information is prepared at the same centre upon users' request. The present chapter includes results of both continuously implemented activities related to climate variability and climate change, and research implemented during the years 2007-2012 within the frames of the specific projects.

2.2.1 Climate monitoring Climate monitoring includes observation data collection, maintenance, quality control and analysis and interpretation of those data from the perspective past climate. This information is extremely important for evaluation of climate anomalies and development of reliable climate forecast in the region. Armstatehydromet permanently implements detailed monitoring of current climate conditions in Armenia using observation data received from the all meteorological stations. Figures 2.2 and 2.3 represent examples of the monitoring products– anomalies of air temperature and total precipitation for 2012. State and international organizations, as well as RA National Statistical Service are provided with the results for the compilation of annual “Environment report”. Since June 2009 Armstatehydromet has been included in the WMO RAVI Regional Climate Centres (RCC) Network, which consists of three nodes – Climate data, Climate monitoring and Climate forecasts. Armstatehydromet is an RCC implementing climate monitoring for the South Caucasus region. In compliance with its functions Armstatehydromet continuously monitors and analyses climate conditions for the territory of South Caucasus (regional) (figure 2.4). For this purpose climate anomalies – deviation of current climate parameters (air temperature, total precipitation, solar radiation) from the average of 1961-1990 are evaluated at monthly, seasonal and annual scale. The data from Global Producing Centres (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, CAMS_OPI, etc.) are used for the implementation of regional monitoring. In the meantime climate conditions of the previous year both for Armenia and the South Caucasus region are analyzed in detail including observed climate extremes and hydrometeorological hazards, and results are incorporated in the Annual Bulletin on the Climate in WMO Region VI-Europe and Middle East, as well as in the WMO bulletin “State of the Global Climate”.

a) b) Figure 2.2 Annual average air temperatures (0C) 1961-1990 norm (a) and deviation of 2012 average annual temperature from the norm (b)

a) b) Figure 2.3 Total annual precipitations (mm) 1961-1990 norm (a) and deviation of 2012 annual total precipitation from the norm (b)

a) b) Figure 2.4 Regional climate monitoring: anomalies of (a) average annual air temperature and (b) annual total precipitation for 2011

Use of satellite derived products (CM-SAF) During 2008-2009 Armstatehydromet jointly with the DWD experts conducted a study on the use of CM-SAF satellite products provided by DWD for the implementation of monitoring over the territory of Armenia. With this purpose CM SAF data were validated against the observation data, to develop a transition index and applying it to merge these two data sets. As a result a high resolution near real time data sets were reconstructed, which will be used for climate monitoring, in particular of solar radiation components (figure 2.5).

a) b)

Figure 2.5. Solar radiation in the territory of Armenia in 2006 (a) January and (b) July based on the reconstructed data sets Similar studies are being conducted also for albedo, solar radiation balance, and cloudiness. The results of the work were summarized in the report, presented at a number of international and national conferences and symposiums, and published in Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, USA.

2.2.2 Updated norms of various climate parameters There was an urgent need to update climatic norms, as the latest norms of all climate variables had been published in 1965. It was a Reference book “Climate of Armenia” consisting of 5 volumes. The new norms are computed using the whole time series (up to 2012) of the data from all meteorological stations. The first volume “Air and soil temperature” was published in 2011 funded by UNDP-GEF, the other two, i.e. “Humidity, Precipitation and snow cover” and “Wind and atmospheric pressure” are under print. Reference-books «Agroclimate resources of Armenia» and «A handbook of solar radiation over Armenia» were also published in 2011 with support of the UNDP-GEF programme.

2.2.3 Long range forecasting The growing interest and importance of long range forecasts in the long term planning has been expressed by the various stakeholders as well as in the result of the survey conducted within this programme. Although Armstatehydromet provides seasonal outlooks to the users, it is based on the prediction from Global Producing Centres with coarse resolution and rather poor skill. Recently Armstatehydromet started using also consensus based seasonal outlook developed at Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOF), which is one of the important initiatives of WMO. RCOFs contain all the components of GFCS, including climate monitoring, long range forecasting, capacity development and liaison with users and stakeholders. Currently Armstatehydromet is involved in two RCOFs - the Southeast European and North EurAsian COFs (SEECOF, NEACOF), which offers an opportunity to compare the forecasts and select the one with higher skill for Armenia. The consensus based seasonal outlooks are used for developing seasonal prediction for the winter and summer seasons. However, the skill of forecasts is still poor; therefore certain actions on the further improvement of LRF are included in the Armstatehydromet workplan for 2013-2016. One of the issues is implementation of the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) developed by International Research Institute (IRI). This tool applies statistical downscaling, using different predictors and computing correlation with the observed data. With this purpose the impacts of global forcing on the precipitation and temperature patterns over Armenia during different seasons are studied. However, there is a lack of human and technical resources in the area of long range forecasting v, so it is highly important to develop existing human capacities in the area of LRF as well as strengthen computing resources. With this purpose funding is required to purchase a powerful computer as well as to provide long term training for the staff involved in LRF related scientific and operational activities.

2.2.4 Climate change studies In the area of climate change respective departments of Armstatehydromet regularly conduct various scientific investigations, the results and findings are being included in the strategic plan for different sectors of economy of the country, which results in the reduction of climate risks, and promotes sustainable development of the country. Several major studies conducted during 2007-2012 and the main results are presented in this paragraph.

Observed climatic trends Air temperature and total precipitation changes over Armenia have been estimated for different periods, and the results have been used for the preparation of the First, Second and Third National Communications of Armenia under UNFCCC. The results show that during last decades average air temperature has gradually increased (Fig. 2.6a), in particular during 1935-1996 area averaged annual mean temperature raised by 0.4 (1st National Communication), during 1935-2007 by 0.85 (2nd National Communication) and during 1935-2912 by 1.03 C. These results indicate that the rate of temperature increase has also speeded up.

3,5 350 C 0 3,0 2,5 250 2,0 150 1,5 1,0 50 0,5 0,0 -50 -0,5 -1,0 -150 -1,5 Deviation from average, 1961-1990 Deviation from 1961-90 (mm) average Deviation from -2,0 -250 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 a) b) 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Figure 2.6 Deviation of average annual mean air temperature (a) and precipitation (b) from the average values for 1961-1990

It is notable that starting from 1994 annual air temperature anomalies over Armenia have been only positive. The year 2010 was recorded as the warmest and 1998 as the second warmest with the temperature anomalies 2.90C and 2.00C accordingly. On July 31, 2011 the highest temperature for Armenia has been recorded in Meghri 43.70C. There is a large interseasonal variation in terms of warming, i.e. the increase of seasonal mean temperature in summers (about 1.1) is much more remarkable than that for winters (0.04) (Fig. 2.7), moreover the trend of the seasonal temperature for winters is not statistically significant.

0 C 0 3  C 5 2,5 4 2 3 normal 1,5 warm 2 1 cold 1 very w arm 0,5 0 very cold -1 0 extr.w arm -2 -0,5 extr.cold -3 -1 -4 -1,5 -5 -2 1934-35 1938-39 1942-43 1946-47 1950-51 1954-55 1958-59 1962-63 1966-67 1970-71 1974-75 1978-79 1982-83 1986-87 1990-91 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07 2010-11 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 a) b) Figure 2.7 Deviations of mean summer (a) and winter (b) air temperatures from1961-1990 average values

The comparison of the observed changes for annual total precipitation during the different periods revealed increasing rate of precipitation reduction. Thus during 1935-1996 the area averaged total annual precipitation decreased by about 6% while during 1935-2012 this value dropped by 10%. However, these changes have large spatial variability, e.g. climate in the northeast and central (Ararat Valley) regions has got drier, while on the south and the northwest of the country and in the basin of Lake Sevan the amount of precipitation has rather increased.

Climate change scenarios for Armenia region

The Regional Climate Model used in this study is Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), developed by the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office. The PRECIS model simulation output data for the basic 1961-1990 period (model baseline) and the future projections of climate under SRES A2 emission scenario are used in this study for the development of climate change future projections over the Lori region. It uses data from the HadCM General Circulation Model (GCM) to provide its lateral boundary conditions. The horizontal resolution is 0.220x0.220 (25x25km); the simulation domain covers the entire South Caucasus region.

a b Figure 2.8 Future changes (2071-2100) of (a) annual air temperature (0C) and (b) precipitation (%) compared to the average for 1961-1990 over Armenia region

a) b) Figure 2.9 Future changes (2071-2100) of total soil moisture content (kg*m2) for (a) spring and (b) summer compared to the average for 1961-1990 over Armenia region

a) b) Figure2.10 Future changes (2071-2100) of relative humidity (%) for (a) winter and (b) summer compared to the average for 1961-1990 over Armenia region

Based on the model results future changes of the air temperature (Fig. 2.8a) and atmospheric precipitation (Fig 2.8b) over Armenia have been estimated at seasonal and annual scale. Furthermore, changes of several other hydroclimate parameters, i.e. total soil moisture content (Fig. 2.9), air relative humidity (Fig. 2.10), etc. have been studied as well. However, the study has certain limitations, since PRECIS model has been implemented for Armenia region using outputs from only one global model HadCM. In order to have more reliable scenarios and to reduce uncertainties it was proposed to continue the study evaluating the results of several General Circulation Models.

Climate change over South Caucasus region

The climate change scenarios by all three countries of the South Caucasus region were developed using PRECIS outputs, the developed scenarios were used as a basis for Second National Communications (SNC) of the countries. Analysis of the climate change scenarios in the SNCs of all three countries revealed that increase of the temperature by the end of century has similar magnitude and will vary in the range of 3-60C. But there is a disagreement in projection of precipitation changes. The results of precipitation changes for Armenia and Georgia indicate further decrease of the precipitation amount by about 10 percent from baseline mean. But according to the results from Azerbaijan precipitation is expected to increase significantly, almost doubled (by about 80 %). It was assumed that there might be a weakness of the PRECIS in simulating precipitation field. Therefore, it was proposed to study and evaluate results of other GCMs.

Taking into account this motivation, UNDP country offices initiated a regional study aimed at evaluating the results of various GCMs and developing regional climate change scenarios over the South Caucasus region, which was conducted by the scientists from the SACHE, Armstatehydromet. With this purpose the state-of-art GCMs simulations available at PCMDI have been used to estimate capabilities of models to reproduce regional climate features. The full field and annual cycle for air temperature and precipitation from all models (model climatology) were examined with respect to observation averaged for the baseline period. Based on the preliminary results of study four models ECHAM5, GFDL, GISS ER, HadCM3 have been identified, which are relatively good to be used for developing regional scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the 21st century. Based on these models simulations, temperature over the region will increase by 1.1-1.50C during 2011-2040, by 2.0-3.00C during 2041-2070 and by 3.5-5.50C during 2071-2099. Total precipitation will likely decrease by 5-10%, 10-15 % and 15-25% within the same periods respectively. These results have been used for assessing vulnerability of water resources, agriculture crop and human health.

3 Climate risks and hydrometeorological vulnerability of the territory of Armenia

3.1 Hydrometerological hazardous events During the last decades the frequency and intensity of hydrometeorological hazardous events in Armenia has significantly increased due to the climate change impact, in the result the thresholds defining these events have been shifted as well. Consequently the loss of life and property caused by these hazards also increases. One of the main functions of Armstatehydromet is continuous monitoring, forecasting and provision of warnings on hydrometeorological hazardous events to the Government authorities, various sectors of economy, media and population. These functions are regulated by the Directive of the Government of Armenia “On the order of providing very urgent and general information about hydrometeorological processes and phenomena”, according to which the information is to be provided to the Crisis Management Service, Rescue Service (Ministry of Emergency Situations of the RA) as well as to the most vulnerable stakeholders, e.g. agriculture, forest management, thermal power system, construction, household community, communication, transport, health care and tourism. The dynamics of frost (air and/or ground level temperature diminution below 00 C), hail (20 mm and more in diameter), strong winds (wind at 25 m/s and more speed) and heavy precipitation (30 mm and more within 1 hour) during 1980-2011 was analyzed for revealing the trends of changes of hydrometeorological hazardous events (Fig. 3.1). The analyses showed that:  The frequency of frosts has considerably increased,  The frequency of days with hail in the selected stations has decreased,  The frequency of heavy precipitation has a growing trend,  The number of cases with strong wind in the selected stations has decreased during the last decade, though the overall positive tendency is noticed in Armenia as a whole.

260 245 240 242 227 220 214 200 195 198 188 187 182 180 179178 173 174 167 164 161 164 160 157158 158159 146 140 143 142 140 136 129 125 120 121 120 111 106 100 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Figure 3.1The total number of the hazardous events observed in the territory of Armenia in 1980-2011

The results show that total number of the hydrometeorological hazardous events has increased by about 32 cases (about 20%) during the last three decades.

3.2 Early warning system In case of the risk of hydrometeorological hazardous events Armstatehydromet issues warning as early as possible for the whole country or separate regions, depending on the expected spatial scale of the event. The information on predicted hazard is provided both in general short-term weather forecast and also in the form of a separate text warning. In case if hydrometeorological hazard was not predicted, but it was observed at certain locations, the relevant information on the occurrence of a hazard, the intensity, direction of propagation and further development is provided to state authorities. In case of forecasting simultaneous occurrence of several hydrometeorological hazards, the name, formation period and peculiarities of development for each specific hazard are indicated in the warning text. Sometimes analyses of real time aerosynoptical data show that the predicted hydrometeorological hazard will not occur, or will be formed with a delay from the expected date. In such cases warning duration is being extended or canceled. In adherence with the RA government affirmed procedure, warning on expected hydrometeorological hazards is distributed through telephone, fax and/or internet connection usually in form of a text.

3.3 Short range forecasting Recently Armstatehydromet initiated implementation of mesoscale weather prediction numerical models, which will lead to improving the accuracy and lead time of short range forecasts. Since 2009 Armstatehydromet in collaboration with RA Institute for Informatics and Automation Problems of the National Academy of Sciences conducts experiments with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The evaluation of the results showed that there is still a scope of further improving predictions through physics sensitivity experiments and data assimilation. During 2007-2012 Armstatehydromet has considerably improved the accuracy of short range forecasts, as well as prediction of hazards and issuing warnings to users. However, there is still a requirement to strengthen observation network, monitoring and evaluation methodology and collection of data concerning the damage caused by the hazards. There is also a need to improve lead time of forecasts, as well as to produce very short range forecasts, which will significantly contribute to more effective operation of the early warning system.

3.4 Climate anomalies and Climate Watch System During the last several decades economic losses and deaths caused by weather and climate1 anomalies are gradually increasing. Reliable and timely climate information has become an important climate risk management tool. Climate Watch is an advisory which can serve as a mechanism to heighten awareness in the user community that a significant climate anomaly exists or might develop and that preparedness measures should be initiated. The main goal of a Climate Watch is to provide information about the significant anomalies for the forthcoming months/season(s) that may have substantial impacts on a regional scale in order to enable the end users to take certain action to minimize the effects of an expected adverse climate-related impact, rather than simply reacting to an observed climate anomaly. There is no need to create new institutional entities for development of a CWS; it will use all available climate information, including observations on current conditions, weekly, 10 days, monthly, seasonal and annual monitoring and forecast products available from global, regional and national climate related institutions. According to WMO guidance it is supposed that national hydrometeorological services continuously implement detailed monitoring, evaluate available climate forecasts, and, when conditions warrant, issue formal climate watches to alert end users (figure 3.2).

1 Unlike weather hazards,climate hazards are formed in a period longer than weather scale (3-5 days) and can last from one week till one month and more. 23

There are almost all necessary components for the Meteorological services implementation of CWS at Armstatehydromet: real time quality controlled observed data, results of Operativeinformation ObservationsandMonitoringLong-term monitoring on present climate conditions, Data andanalysisforecast evaluation of regional anomalies connected with mesoscale climate variability, long range forecasts Standards Strong Forming received from global models. However for the Contents partnership Climate andformat and feedback Watch implementation of CWS at Armstatehydromet it is necessary to improve long range forecasts by

Informationdissemin applying downscaling technique to the global ation climate models’ results, elaborate corresponding climate extreme indices characterizing climate Stakeholders anomalies and indicate threshold values. It is also necessary to strengthen information dissemination Figure 3.2Climate Watch System components and provision system, develop forms and mechanisms for consultation provision, and strengthen cooperation and feedback with stakeholders and decision-makers. Summarizing the above mentioned we can conclude that implementation of CWS in addition to Early Warning System will give an opportunity of reducing the damage caused to the country by weather hazards, as well as by climate extremes.

3.4 Hydrometeorological vulnerability of the territory of Armenia The method of analogues was applied for the evaluation of hydrometeorological vulnerability of the territory of Armenia, according to which the level of hydrometeorological vulnerability of the territory is defined by extreme daily time series of several meteorological and hydrological parameters, i.e. maximum and minimum air temperature, maximum precipitation, maximum wind speed, maximum river flow. The results of the assessment of the vulnerability for 35 hydrometeorological stations are presented in the table 3.1. Based on these values hydrometeorological vulnerability has been classified in compliance with seven categories scale, according to which the territory of Armenia lies in the range of higher than the average vulnerability (figure 3.3). These results will serve as a basis for developing adaptation measures addressed at reducing climate risks.

Figure 3.3 Spatial distribution of hydrometeorological vulnerability of Armenia

Table 3.1 Hydrometeorological vulnerability of the territory of Armenia (Y2) and vulnerability decomposed as per specific parameters (Y1)

Meteorological Y1 Y2 Station Тmin Тmax W R Q Тmin

1 Gyumri 29.8 21.9 45.8 203.1 122.6 423.2 203.1 2 Ashotsk 27.7 21.9 209.6 209.6 3 Amasia 30.3 21.8 90.0 147.7 78.5 368.3 147.7 4 Vanadzor 40.4 21.6 31.4 185.5 92.5 371.4 185.5 5 Stepanavan 33.8 22.8 51.7 289.2 59.2 456.7 289.2 6 Tashir 30.7 22.8 42.2 156.4 99.5 351.6 156.4 7 Pushkin m-p 30.9 23.7 38.4 129.4 109.4 331.9 129.4 8 Odzun 38.5 21.4 344.7 85.7 344.7 9 Ijevan 49.0 21.4 67.9 258.3 105.8 502.3 258.3 10 Dilijan 34.8 22.7 63.4 157.2 99.9 377.9 157.2 11 Bagratashen 51.9 21.4 81.9 294.8 81.9 532 294.8 12 LakeSevan 44.7 23.2 62.5 162.2 119.2 411.9 162.2 13 Gavar 30.3 22.4 53.4 245.8 132.6 484.5 245.8 14 Martuni 38.0 23.4 48.8 255.5 79.3 445 255.5 15 Masrik 28.7 21.8 45.3 262.5 68.1 426.3 262.5 16 Shorja 44.6 22.2 66.7 231.5 106.2 471.2 231.5 17 Yerevan "Arabkir" 33.7 21.1 65.8 197.8 160.0 478.5 197.8 18 Yerevan Agro 33.1 20.2 43.4 184.8 160.0 441.5 184.8 19 Aparan 28.7 21.5 52.7 208.9 190.2 501.9 208.9 20 Tsaghkahovit 25.0 22.4 57.6 189.6 190.2 484.7 189.6 21 Ashtarak 34.4 20.6 60.7 224.6 300.0 640.3 34.4 22 Aragats h/m 29.6 23.4 51.5 248.4 258.9 611.9 29.6 23 Hrazdan 31.0 22.1 40.7 154.7 121.3 369.8 31.0 24 Fantan 44.3 21.4 60.3 166.9 220.4 513.2 44.3 25 Armavir 37.1 20.6 54.9 225.4 37.1 26 Artashat 34.9 21.2 104.6 249.1 110.7 520.6 34.9 27 Ararat 38.0 20.6 63.7 232.8 148.2 503.4 38.0 28 Ananun m-pass 32.9 21.8 65.8 171.2 102.9 394.6 32.9 29 Areni 36.0 21.4 71.3 186.0 102.9 417.6 36.0 30 Jermuk 30.8 21.4 51.2 206.1 113.9 423.5 30.8 31 Goris 35.5 21.6 122.0 203.6 98.8 481.5 35.5 32 Sisian 35.2 22.6 44.7 226.6 66.3 395.3 35.2 33 Kajaran 29.6 21.9 68.8 267.7 109.4 497.4 29.6 34 Kapan 44.7 22.1 67.9 535.3 147.0 817.1 44.7 35 Meghri 55.8 21.9 91.5 288.7 68.1 526 55.8 Armenia 1145

3.5 Climate extremes Increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events of climate change is one of the main manifestations of the global warming. Therefore, extreme values have to be properly treated and analyzed, and the information about the extremes is highly important for effective planning and management of works in vulnerable sectors. With this purpose a number of climatic extreme indices have been developed and recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Commission for Climatology, Joint Technical Committee on Ocean and Marine Meteorology Currently there are about 40 indices, which have been estimated for the whole territory of Armenia. However only those indices have been analyzed, which have certain importance for the specific sectors of economy. Table 3.2 Name and explanation of climate extremes’ indices used in the work ID Indicator name Definitions UNIT CDD Consecutive Dry Days Largest number of consecutive days where: Days RRij<1mm RX1day Max 1-day precipitation amount Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation Mm Rx5day Max 5-day precipitation amount Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation Mm R10 Number of heavy precipitation Annual count of days when PRCP>=10mm Days days R20 Number of very heavy Annual count of days when PRCP>=20mm Days precipitation days GSL Growing season Length Annual (1st Jan to 31st Dec in NH, 1st July to 30th June Days in SH) count between first span of at least 6 days with TG>5ºC and first span after July 1 (January 1 in SH) of 6 days with TG<5ºC FD0 Frost days Annual count when TN(daily minimum)<0ºC Days SU25 Summer days Annual count when TX(daily maximum)>25ºC Days ID0 Ice days Annual count when TX(daily maximum)<0ºC Days

TN10p Cool nights Percentage of days when TN<10th percentile Days TN90p Warm nights Percentage of days when TN>90th percentile Days TR20 Tropical nights Annual count when TN(daily minimum)>20ºC Days TX10p Cool days Percentage of days when TX<10th percentile Days TX90p Warm days Percentage of days when TX>90th percentile Days

The following indices were evaluated and analyzed for several locations of the territory of Armenia: Number of Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Number of Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), Duration of Rainless Period, number of warm and cool days and nights during the year, duration of heat and cold waves. Daily data of maximum and minimum air temperature and atmospheric precipitations values for the period of 1935-2010 were used for calculation. The results of the study show that CDD is especially high in Meghri and Ararat – 61 and 58 days respectively, average CDD in Yerevan is 42, maximum – 63 days (2010). During the last 30 years 2010 was remarkable due to the highest number of consecutive dry days throughout the country, e.g. in Ararat - 100 days, in Shorja - 117 days. Figure 3.4 presents the dynamics of the number of Summer Days (SU25) and the number of Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) in 1935-2011 for Artashat station.

Figure 3.4 The dynamics of annual number of Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) and Summer Days (SU25) change in Artashat station Spatial distribution of changes of CDD and SU25 indices for all meteorological stations of Armenia are presented on the Figure 3.5. It is seen that for prevailing part of the territory trends are positive, only for some small patches there is a decreasing tendency.

a) b) Figure 3.5 Spatial distribution of change for a) the number of Summer Days (SU25) and b) the number of Consecutive Dry Days during 1935-20011

3.6 Evaluation of drought conditions One of the climate features of Armenia region is frequent occurrence of the long drought periods that are connected with anomalies of the atmospheric circulation. Dry spells are reported almost every year, particularly in the summer season. Severe droughts coupled with limited water resources cause significant damage to the economy of the country and to agriculture in particular. About 50% of cultivated areas are irrigated, and the rest have rain-fed agriculture. Negative impact of drought on irrigable territories is not essential, whereas rain-fed areas incur considerable losses. During the last decades climate over Armenia has become warmer and drier, which led to more severe and frequent drought, especially in Ararat Valley (central part), Vayk and Syunik (southern regions), which are main agricultural regions of Armenia. The proper monitoring and evaluation of dry conditions is one of the priority issues handled by the scientists of Scientific-Applied Centre for Hydrometerology and Ecology or Armstatehydromet. Various drought evaluation methodologies, e.g. Penman-Monteith method, Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient, Palfai Aridity Index, etc have been applied for assessment of drougths. The results of this 27 work are briefly presented in chapter “Climate risks in Vayots Dzor marz” (4.4). It is planned to continue investigation of drought conditions, as well as to develop a drought monitoring and forecasting system for the whole territory of Armenia, with this purpose a project proposal has been elaborated. Each of the drought evaluation indices has shortcomings and advantages. Thus, it is necessary to compare and evaluate the received result, as well as apply other comprehensive methodologies for achieving more valuable results. Estimated indices can serve as basis for evaluation of damages caused by drought.

3.7 Investigation of wind field Wind speed and direction changes are local manifestations of the changes of global circulation patterns; therefore it is necessary to use it as climate change indicator as well. Taking into consideration this motivation Armstatehydromet began research on the wind field patterns over the territory of Armenia. Initial results revealed changes of both speed and prevailing directions in some areas. Thus, in Yerevan during the last 60 years wind speed has slightly increased during the winter months (0.2 m/s), and it has considerably decreased during other seasons (0,5-1.3 m/s). Change of prevailing wind directions in Yerevan is also notable, e.g. southern winds frequency has increased by about 16% during the winter months, which could be the reason of more frequent warm winters. During summer months prevailing northern winds shifted to the northeast, in the meantime the frequency of southern component has increased, which results in the increased frequency of heat waves. Changes of wind field can also lead to spatial redistribution of a precipitation pattern. It is worth noting that in depth studies on the wind field in the context of climate change are very limited. But their importance is evident and to some extent can result in the reduction of uncertainties. Therefore, it is necessary to continue and expand these studies for the whole territory of Armenia.

4. Climate risks of Vayots Dzor marz

4.1 Overview of climate conditions of the region Vayots Dzor marz includes upper and middle stream of Arpa River. The lowest altitude of the region is 920 meters in Arpa river valley, whereas the highest point is Vardenis peak which has 3520 meters height. Vertical zoning is observed in the region as conditioned by its diverse relief. The following landscape zones are distinguished here: lowland (up to 1400 m a.s.l.) with semi-desert and arid desert landscapes, middle altitude (1400-2800m a.s.l.) with mountainous steppe landscapes, and highland (higher than 2800meters) with Alpine meadows and tundra landscape. In whole, the climate of Semi-desert zone is arid and severe continental with temperate cold winter and hot summer. Annual average air temperature is 120C with24-260C during summer months (July, August), and -3…-40C during January. The observed absolute maximum temperature is 420C, whereas the minimum is -300C. Winters last about 2-3 months, cold period continues for 4-5 months, from November to mid-April, sometimes even less. Maximum atmospheric precipitation is observed in spring (60mm in May). During the year in average 80-95 days with precipitation are observed. Rarely falling snow immediately melts and steady snow cover is observed quite rare, for example in Areni lasting snow cover can be seen once in 3 years. The maximum ten-day height of snow cover ever reported in this zone is 58 centimeters (1957). Relative humidity is rather low during summer months, i.e. 42-46%. This zone is very poor in ground and surface waters; the only river for this zone is Arpa, which water resources are used for irrigation. River Arpa overflows in spring – in May, which is conditioned by maximum amount of precipitation during that month.

The climate of mountainous zone (1400-2800m) is temperate cold continental with relatively humid summers. Annual amount of precipitations of this zone is 600-800 mm, a part of which falls in form of snow. Steady snow cover is formed at the end of November and melts in the middle of April; the average ten-day height of snow cover can reach 2 meters and more. The average air temperature of this zone is -7 …-90C in January; the minimum is -300C, whereas the average air temperature of July is 13-160C. In this zone, recreational industry is developed with many sanatoria and resort complexes due to the favorable climate conditions and mineral water springs. Temperate cold mountainous climate with long-lasting and cold winters is typical for mountainous steppe zone. The number of freezing days is 150-180. Annual amount of atmospheric precipitation is 600-700mm, the prevailing part of which is observed during the warm period of the year. In spring heavy showers accompanied by thunderstorm are often observed. The height of snow cover reaches 50- 70 centimeters, which lasts for 4 months. Landscapes of alpine meadows and mountainous tundra are typical for High mountainous and mountainous zone (higher than 2800m). Alpine zone has cold climate, winter starts at the end of October or beginning of November, average air temperature in January is -10…-130C, whereas minimum can reach -390C. Atmospheric precipitation in this zone is rather abundant, 800-900mm, which turn into heavy rain during summers. The average wind speed is 6-7m/s, there is frequent snowstorm. The maximum speed sometimes reaches 20 m/s and more, 35 m/s in the mountain passes, with the gusts of more than 40 m/s. Annual sunshine duration in the region is in the range of 2300-2600 hours. Long-lasting fogs often formed in Vorotan Mountain pass in average 830 hours per year, sometimes even more than 1600 hours. About 20-25 days with thunderstorm per year are observed here. Snowstorms are often reported in winter in highland regions and mountain passes, about 17 days in average per year, the maximum 40 days.

4.2 Climate variability and climate change in Vayotz Dzor marz The observation data from all meteorological stations and raingauge sites located in the region were used for analyzing climate variability of Vayots Dzor marz (Fig. 4.1). Detailed quality control of observation data was implemented; mistakes and errors were corrected in order to reduce the uncertainty connected with data as far as possible. Homogeneity of time series was also ensured by applying appropriate coefficients. Meanwhile, missing values for temperature and precipitation in Areni station were reconstituted on the basis of the data from Yeghegnadzor meteorological station. The analysis of observed time series shows that considerable changes of climate parameters were observed both in Armenia and in Vayots Dzor during the entire period of observations.

Figure 4.1Network of meteorological stations in Vayots Dzor marz 29

Air temperature

Observed trends The interannual variability of air temperature anomalies with respect to 1961-1990 average are presented on figure 4.2. The annual temperatures increased by 1,70C (the norm is 12.20C) in Areni and by 0.80C (the norm is 4.70C) in Jermuk. Man-Kendal test was applied to evaluate statistical significance of these trends; the results show that trends of air temperature are statistically significant especially for Areni and Yeghegnadzor stations.

Areni y = 0,0278x - 0,4605 Jermuk y = 0,016x - 0,1804 4,0 3,0 3,0 2,5 2,0 2,0 1,5 1,0 1,0 0,5 0,0 0,0 -1,0 -0,5 -1,0 -2,0 -1,5 -3,0 -2,0 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 a) b)

Figure 4.2. Interannual variability of annual average air temperature anomalies with regard to 1961-1990 norm in (a) Areni (1950-2012) and (b) Jermuk (1957-2012) meteorological stations

Predicted changes of air temperature According to PRECIS model results for SRES A2 emission scenario air temperature will continue to rise all across the country. Moreover, the highest rise of temperature is expected in Vayots Dzor marz. For the evaluation of spatial distribution of projected air temperature, statistical downscaling was implemented. With this purpose, air temperature gradients (temperature change for each 100m height) were evaluated at monthly and annual scale (table 4.1). The gradient is considerably small during cold months and higher during warm months.

Table 4.1. Temperature gradient in Vayots Dzor (0C)

Month I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Annual Gradient 0,4 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,9 0,9 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,7 Applying the gradient values, temperatures for different altitudes were computed and compared with the observed values in different altitudes, revealing deviation of 0.50C in summer and of 0.30C in winter, both within the permissible limits. On the basis of reconstructed values, spatial distribution temperature maps were compiled. Annual values of average air temperature for the baseline of 1961- 1990, as well as values predicted for years 2040, 2070 and 2100 are presented in table 4.2, spatial distribution maps are presented on figure 4.3.

Table 4.2.Vayots Dzor marz: annual baseline average air temperature and total precipitation (1961-1990) and those predicted for 2040, 2070 and 2100 according to PRECIS model results

Station Air temperature (0C) Precipitations amount (mm) Norm 2030 2070 2100 Norm 2030 2070 2100 Jermuk 4,8 6,2 8 10,8 779 719,0 657,5 613,1 Areni 12,3 13,7 15,5 18,3 385 355,4 324,9 303,0 Yeghegnadzor 10,8 12,2 14 16,8 417 384,9 351,9 328,2 Martiros 6,9 8,3 10,1 12,9 618 570,4 521,6 486,4 Vorotan mountain pass 2,7 4,1 5,9 8,7 667 615,6 562,9 524,9 Vayk 10,4 11,8 13,6 16,4 411 379,4 346,9 323,5

The results predict continuous rise of air temperature up to 5-60C by year 2100 (fig. 4.3). Average annual temperature would be 16-20 degrees in Arpa river basin and about 8-10 degrees in the highlands.

Atmospheric precipitation

Observed changes Analysis of precipitation changes () in Areni and Jermuk meteorological stations revealed decreasing trend. Annual total precipitation has not revealed any trend in Areni (norm - 341mm), and reduced by 7.8% in Jermuk (norm-778mm) (figure 4.4). However, Man-Kendal test showed that these trends are not statistically significant.

y = 0,0081x - 20,506 Areni Jermuk y = 0,9253x - 29,774 200,0 400,0

150,0 300,0

100,0 200,0

50,0 100,0 0,0 0,0 -50,0 -100,0 -100,0 -200,0 -150,0 -300,0 -200,0 -250,0 -400,0 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 a) 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 b)

Figure 4.4 Interannual variability of annual precipitation anomalies with respect to 1961-1990 norm for (a) Areni (1946-2012) and (b) Jermuk (1948-2012) stations

Projected changes of total precipitation Annual total precipitation distribution by altitude zones was used for the evaluation of future changes of precipitation in the region. Spatial distribution maps of annual precipitation for the region were prepared for 1961-1990 average, and projected by PRECIS for 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070- 2100 (figure 4.5 a, b, c, d). It is worth noting that precipitation values simulated by the model contain great uncertainty due to the weakness of the model. According to the findings, the region will have new climate features as projected by PRECIS model; however these results must be accepted with cautiousness considering the present uncertainty.

a) b) c) d) Figure 4.5 Spatial distribution of annual total precipitation in Vayots Dzor marz a) baseline (1961-90) and projected for b) 2010-40., c) 2040-70 and d) 2070-2100

4.3 Weather and climate extreme events in the region Climate extreme indices were evaluated for developing climate change adaptation measures in the region. The description of these indices is presented in chapter 3.5. The following climate extremes indices were analyzed: number of Frost days (FD0), Summer days (SU25), Growing Season Length (GSL), 5 days maximum precipitation (RX5days), number of days with heavy precipitations (R25), number of Consecutive dry days (CDD). Interannual variability of these indices for Jermuk station is presented in the figure 4.6.

day CDD day SU 25 80 60 70 50

60 40 50 30 40 30 20 20 10 10 0 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 day R25 day FD0 8 200 7 190 6 180 5 4 170 3 160 2 150 1 140 0 130 -1 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 mm day Rx5 GSL 160 240 230 140 220 120 210 100 200 80 190 60 180 170 40 160 20 150 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Figure 4.6 The dynamics of Climate extreme indices for Jermuk meteorological station

Analysis of the climate extreme indices for the 3 stations for the given period revealed different trends for stations. Thus, the number of Frost days (FD0) in Areni and Vorotan Mountain Pass decreased by 11 and 20 days respectively, while in Jermuk it increased by 4 days. The number of Summer days (SU25) increased by 18 days in Areni, 20 days in Jermuk and 2 days in Vorotan. Growing Season Length (GSL) increased remarkably in the whole region (23 days in Areni, 15 days in Jermuk and 11 days in Vorotan). 5 days maximum precipitation (Rx5days) increased by 12 millimeters in Areni, while decreased by 5 and 8 millimeters in Jermuk and Vorotan respectively. The number of Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) increased by 4 in Areni and Jermuk and by 10 days in Vorotan.

Analysis of heat and cold waves at Jermuk city

A heatwave (coldwave) is defined as the period when daily maximum (minimum) air temperature exceeds the norm of 1961-90 by 3°C during consecutive 5 days and more. The duration of heat and cold waves is the number of these consecutive days.

50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 a) 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 b) 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Figure 4.7 Annual number of heat (a) and cold (b) waves in Jermuk during 1981-2011

Figure 4.7 shows the dynamics of annual number of heat and cold waves in Jermuk city during 1981-2011. As observed, the frequency of heatwaves increased by 18 events, whereas the number of cold waves revealed a decreasing trend (21 event).

Analysis of rainless periods Average number and duration of rainless periods during growing seasons is defined as the period with less than 1mm precipitation within 10 and more consecutive days. The analysis shows that the frequency of the rainless period in Jermuk city within 1981-2011 did not change considerably (figure 4.8). However, the total duration of rainless periods decreased by about 24 days.

8 140

7 120

6 100

5 80 4 60 3

40 2

1 20

0 0

a) 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 b) 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Figure 4.8 The frequency (a) and total duration (b) of the rainless period during growing season in Jermuk within 1981-2011 33

Hydrometeorological hazards in the region The data on hydrometeorological hazards – hail, strong wind, heavy precipitations, frost, flood and drought – as observed in Vayots Dzor marz in 2004-2011 were obtained from RA MES Rescue Service. Those data differ from the information recorded by Armstatehydromet, since these factual observations were reported per the whole territory of the country and the respective committee evaluates the damages in monetary values caused by these hazards. Anyway, the number of hazardous cases recorded by RA MES does not reveal any tendency of change dynamics, as the same hazard observed during the same day in different communities is recorded as a different case. Table 4.2 Number of hydrometeorological hazards in Vayots Dzor marz during 2004-2011

Hail High Heavy Freezing Flood Drought wind precipitation 2003 1 2004 4 2 1 2005 4 3 1 4 2006 3 2 1 1 1 2007 8 6 2 12 2008 8 7 2 1 2009 10 2 1 7 2010 6 5 2 1 2011 6 2 1 2012 4

4.4 Assessment of droughts Vayots Dzor marz is one of the main agricultural regions of Armenia, therefore, accurate evaluation and forecast of drought conditions are of utmost importance here. Armstatehydromet initiated respective studies applying different methodologies for drought assessment.

The assessment of total evapotranspiration applying Penman-Monteith method

Estimation of evapotranspiration is of great importance for defining agricultural drought and water balance components, especially in the main agricultural regions of Armenia (Ararat valley, Shirak valley, Tavush, Vayots Dzor, Syunik valley region). Evapotranspiration was evaluated applying Penman- Monteith method, which was recommended by FAO as the sole method for determining evapotranspiration, and is widely used all over the world [Snyder, 2006]. For that purpose, computer programme was elaborated using Armstatehydromet database and updated parameters: solar radiation, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, air temperature and humidity. Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) values were computed for Vayots Dzor marz for the warm period of year (April-October) and spatial distribution of these values are presented on the map on the base of these values (figure 4.9). Figure 4.9 Distribution of potential evapotranspiration in Vayots Dzor for the warm period of year (April-October)

Drought evaluation by Palfai aridity index

For evaluation of drought and identification of drought prone territories, Palfai aridity index was evaluated using observed average air temperature for April-August and precipitations for October-august from all meteorological stations of Armenia. Calculations were implemented for baseline period 1961- 1990, as well as for the years 2006 and 2010, when severe drought was observed in Armenia (figure 4.10). As per the Palfai aridity index the droughts are classified as follows: 0-2 – weak, 2-5 – relatively strong and more than 6 – strong. Obviously, the highest values of aridity index are observed in regions with arid climate (Ararat valley, Syunik valley).

1961-1990 2006 2010

Figure 4.10 Spatial distribution of Palfai aridity index in Armenia

Evaluation of drought according to Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient

Droughts were also evaluated applying Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient for the period 1960- 2010 for Areni and Ararat meteorological stations for the period from the second decade of April to the second decade of October. According to the findings, the total number of very strong and strong droughts slightly increased, i.e. by 0.4 cases in Areni and by 0.2 in Ararat. The number of drought cases varywithin 4-12 in Ararat and within 3-10 in Areni. The maximum number of dry spell days was observed in Ararat in 1961 and 1987, 12 cases, and in Areni in 1990, 11 cases. The most severe dry spells in Ararat lasted 11 consecutive decades as observed in 1961 and 8 consecutive decades in 1978, 1987, 1994, 2008 and 2010. Further evaluation of drought conditions is planned with application of different methodologies for all the regions of Armenia during 2012-2015.

5. Applied Climate Research

5.1 Vulnerability and adaptability of wine-growing regions Climate change impacts significantly the crop yield of agricultural plants. In the First National Communication of Armenia, climate change impact on main agricultural plants was evaluated under different climate scenarios. Moreover, it was predicted, that among all cultured plants there was only increase of crop for grapes. The change of monthly average temperature was used for this evaluation. The experts from the Institute of Viniculture and Wine-production jointly with the scientists from Armstatehydromet performed a research on the impact of climate parameters on wine-production, such as in case of sum of temperatures exceeding 100C (effective temperature) and the number of days 35 with temperature of more than 300C, as well as their changes in the future. Studies were conducted for the main wine-growing regions of Armenia - Ararat valley and Vayots Dzor hills. For this purpose the given monthly parameters were calculated for 1936-2008 and the future trends of their change were evaluated. The effective temperatures sum showed a growing trend, and its natural variability is within the limits of 30%. Annual values of the effective temperatures sum were predicted on the basis of estimations for years 2040, 2070 and 2100 applying empiric-statistical method as well as PRECIS simulations.

Table 5.1 Average values of effective temperatures sum during 1961-1990 and projected changes with respect to 1961-1990 Change, % Station Average value As per trend As per model 1961-1990 (0C) 2040 2070 2100 2040 2070 2100 Artashat 4059 11,9 20,2 26,5 7,5 18,3 30,0 Yeghegnadzor 3711 13,8 25,9 35,0 11,9 27,9 50

The comparison of the both shows an increase of effective temperatures sum as predicted, however, with different rates of increase. Anyway, these changes lie within the permissible limits of their natural variability.

5.2 Climate change and health Several studies were implemented in the field of climate and health jointly by Armstatehydromet, Yerevan Medical University and Epidemiology Institute of RA Ministry of Health. Particularly, the impact of heat and cold waves on health and number of deaths and climate change impact on malaria outbreak and spatial expansion were studied. Brief results of these works are given below. Climate impact on human health is conditioned both by drastic changes of weather and by anomalous climate conditions; in particular, heat and cold waves are observed very often in Armenia. According to the studies, cardiovascular diseases become acute during heat waves, which result in the increase of the frequency of death incidence. Correlation coefficients between the frequency of deaths and average air temperature values were evaluated applying Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Impact of unfavorable climate conditions in cities is enhanced by high degree of air pollution. Heat and cold waves during 1981-2011 were studied in several cities of Armenia using average, maximum, minimum daily air temperatures. The received results were compared with daily and monthly average calls to emergency service and number of deaths reported in those cities. The findings demonstrate an increase of heat waves duration and frequency all across the country. Moreover, more dangerous tendencies are observed in Yerevan, where the duration and frequency of heat and cold waves is the biggest in Armenia. According to the received patterns, along with the increase of heat waves duration, total number of deaths also increases. Moreover, each additional day of heat wave may cause up to five additional deaths. For studying climate change impact on malaria outbreak and spatial expansion in Armenia, PRECIS model data were used with historical time series of climate parameters that contribute to malaria expansion. The received results confirm that the projected increase of air temperature in Armenia may lead to new hearths of malaria outbreak in Gavar and Martuni; moreover, the possibility of the outbreak of malaria may rise in sub-mountainous and mountainous zones conditioned by the vertical shift of climate zones due to raise of air temperature in these regions.

5.3 Study of water resources of Armenia Among major topics of research, Armstatehydromet explores the water resources of main rivers and Lake Sevan. Recently, a research was conducted on the variability of water resources of 9 main river basins in the context of climate change taking into account also the human impact. A methodology for predicting the maximal river flow during flooding seasons was developed and tested. This methodology was applied for assessment of river flow vulnerability per different climate change scenarios. The assessment methodology for perceptible water in the main river basins at seasonal and annual scale was elaborated and improved.

Lake Sevan Realizing the economic and strategic role of Lake Sevan for sustainable development of the country, especially taking into account the ecological issues, Armstatehydromet performs hidrometeorological monitoring in the basin with the yielded information used for planning and management of water resources of the Lake. Representatives from the Service participate actively in the discussions on the preservation, restoration, and reproduction of Lake Sevan ecosystems, initiated in the Parliament of Armenia. In the meantime, the Service continuously performs scientific studies on the assessment of water balance components (precipitation, evaporation, free flow). The results are provided to the members of Committee on Lake Sevan Issues to be utilized for the planning and management of the water resources of the Lake. In 1990s a study was conducted on the estimation of the evaporation from the Lake and vulnerability of the evaporation in case of the increase of temperature by 1 and 2 degree C (E1 and E2 scenarios). The findings indicated increase of the evaporation by 71mm (8.4%) and 113mm (13.4%) respectively. However, this methodology contained uncertainty as it did not include the wind factor. Recently, these values were re-estimated applying the improved methodology under different scenarios of changes of wind velocity. The new results largely differ from the earlier estimated values. The main finding in this study is that in the result of climate change the free flow from the Lake will reduce by 220-225mln. m3 instead of previously estimated 252mln. m3. In case of temperature increase by 0,50C the total volume of water in the Lake will reduce by 70mln. m3, the increase (decrease) of total precipitation by 5% will lead to increase (decrease) of the volume by 37mln. m3.

6. Perspectives for further improvement of climate services in Armenia Summarizing the current state of climate related activities at Armstatehydromet, several issues were identified to be handled in order to strengthen and improve climate services in Armenia. The highest priority is given to development of human capacities, as well as implementation of new methodologies and further strengthening of technical resources and infrastructure. It is proposed to:  Strengthen climate observation and monitoring network;  Develop capacities for producing tailored climate products and specialized climate information, applying new tools and software;  Strengthen climate and applied climate research and promote implementation of new methodologies;  Improve and develop long term (climate) predictions, which serves as a basis for reducing climate risks and developing adaptation plans;  Improve the mechanism of provision of climate information to the stakeholders and users;  Strengthen the partnership and liaison with climate information providers and users, with specific focus on the most vulnerable sectors. All the actions listed above could be implemented only in case of developing the existing human capacities as well as building new ones. With this purpose, long term and comprehensive training programmes, professional development opportunities in advanced institutions for the employees should

37 be implemented. A more extensive use of educational programmes (short and long term training, fellowship, scholarship programmes) offered by the WMO Training Centres is noteworthy. All the measures mentioned above require respective substantial funding. In this regard, several project proposals were developed based on the identified weaknesses and gaps. In particular, the programme «On strengthening of the climate observation, monitoring and prediction system» is aimed at improving of climate research results, the quality of climate services and application of the findings in operational activities of the Service. Next proposed project is related to the «Development of drought monitoring and prediction system», which implies the application of modern methodologies and new tools/software. Attributing great importance to the effective management of the water resources of Lake Sevan, a project proposal was developed on the «Re-assessment of Lake Sevan water balance components for improving the accounting accuracy of the water resources of the Lake». The implementation of the above listed, as well as several other programmes are expected to lead to a substantial improvement of the quality and timeliness of climate services in Armenia thus contributing to sustainable development of the country.

Scientific publications in international journals 1. H. Astsatryan, A. Shahnazaryan, W. Narsisian, V. Sahakyan, Yu. Shoukourian, H. Melkonyan, A. Hovsepyan, Z. Petrosyan, R. Abrahamyan The Influence of Different WRF Model Parameterization Schemes on the Simulation of the cyclone from Minor Asia over Armenia Region, submitted for publication 2013 2. A. Hovsepyan Current status of the observational network and climate data in Armenia. In. Brunet M. and Hovsepyan A. (eds). Proceedings of the Second WMO/MEDARE International Workshop: Addressing climate data sources and key records for the Mediterranean Basin in support of an enhanced detection, prediction and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, © World Meteorological Organization, 2012 3. Keshishyan A.Sh., Melkonyan H.A., Hovhannisyan D.M., Manukyan D.V., Alexanyan Yu.T., Climate warming and problem of malaria in Armenia. RA NAS Medical Science of Armenia т. LII, № 4,Yerevan, 2012. p 35-42. 4. A.Hovsepyan, H.Melkonyan, Z.Petrosyan, V.Sahakyan, H.Astsatryan, Yu.Shoukourian Climate Change over South Caucasus based on Regional Climate Model Simulations, 2011, Armenia Yerevan Conference Proceedings “Computer Science and Information Technology” ISBN 978-5-8080-0797-0, 325-327 p. 5. H. Т. Nikogosyan, H. А. Melkonyan, K. А. Hayrapetyan. Long-term forecast of free runoff of Lake Sevan and assessment of its vulnerability to the climate change. Transactions of the Institute of of Hydrometeorology at the Georgian Technical University. Volume 117. Tbilisi, 2011, ISSN 1512- 0902, p. 24-27 6. D.Hovhannisyan, Dr. R.Hollmann, L.Vardanyan, A.Hovsepyan, Dr. H.Melkonyan (2010) The application of CM-SAF data for monitoring of climate system over Armenia Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, Volume 4, No.1 (Serial No.26) ISSN 1934-8975, USA 7. H.Melkonyan, D.Hovhannisyan, A.Hovsepyan. Showcase on the Use of CM-SAF data for monitoring of climate system over Armenia, Visiting Scientist Report implemented between Armstatehydromet and DWD (Germany), CDOP VS Study N 7, 2009. 8. T. Khotsanyan, H. Astsatryan, A. Mirzoyan, V. Sahakyan, Yu. Shoukourian, H. Melkonyan, A. Hovsepyan, Z. Petrosyan, V. Kotroni, Implementing and Evaluating the Weather Research and Forecast Model for the Territory of Armenia, Proceedings of the International Conference on Computer Science and Information Technologies (CSIT'09), pp. 490-494, Yerevan, Armenia, September 28 – 2 October, 2009 9. H A Melkonyan, S S Shindyan, Antropogen and natural climatic change in the territory of Armenia. Yerevan State University Bulletin, Yerevan, ISSN 1829-1759, № 3. 2009, p 31-37: 10. H. Melkonyan, D. Hovhannisyan, R.Hollmann, A.Hovsepyan, D.Melkonyan, L.Vardanyan (2009) The application of CM-SAF data for monitoring of climate system over Armenia. Proceedings of the 4th International Renewable and Clean Energy Conference, ISBN 978-9939-815-18-3, p.12. 11. A.H. Melkonyan, S.G. Tonapetyan, H.A. Melkonyan, Methods of assessment of Economic Damage Caused by Air Pollution. Proceedings of 6th International Conference on Urban Air Quality, University of Hertfordshire 2007.

About 50 articles and papers have been published also in Armenian and Russian journals during 2007-2012

“Armenian Hydrometeorogical and Monitoring Center” SNCO of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Armenia Address: 54 Leo, Yerevan, Armenia Tel.: (+374 10) 53 36 16, 53 03 16 Fax: (+374 10) 53 29 52 E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

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