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Modernizing Weather, Climate and Hydrological Services: a Road Map for Armenia

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Modernizing Weather, Climate and Hydrological Services: a Road Map for Armenia SEPTEMBER 2018 Modernizing Weather, Climate and Hydrological Services: A Road Map for Armenia Prepared in collaboration between the Government of Armenia and the World Bank Group 1 ©2018 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW Washington D.C. 20433, USA Internet: www.worldbank.org Disclaimer: This report is a product of staff of the World Bank Group with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgments ______________________________________________________________________________________________7 Abbreviations __________________________________________________________________________________________________8 Executive Summary _____________________________________________________________________________________________9 1. Introduction to Geographical Features and Weather, Climate and Hydrological Hazards _____________ 15 2. Weather and Climate Risks _______________________________________________________________________ 16 3. Socioeconomic Damage Estimates ________________________________________________________________ 20 4. Institutional and Organizational Analysis __________________________________________________________ 22 4.1 Brief History of the Armenian Service for Hydrometeorology ______________________________________________ 22 4.2 International Relations and Cooperation _________________________________________________________________ 25 5. Armenian Hydrometeorological Service Infrastructure _____________________________________________ 26 5.1 Observation System ____________________________________________________________________________________ 26 5.1.1 Surface Meteorological Observations Network _________________________________________________________ 26 5.1.2 Surface Hydrological Observations Network ___________________________________________________________ 26 5.1.3 Remote Sensing Network _____________________________________________________________________________ 29 5.1.4 Telecommunication System: Data Collection System; Data Exchange and Distribution System; Data Management, Archiving, Transmission and Quality System ___________________________ 30 6. Modelling and Forecasting Systems, Including Verification _________________________________________ 32 6.1 Short-Range Weather Forecasts _________________________________________________________________________ 32 6.2 Long-Range Forecasts __________________________________________________________________________________ 32 6.3 Agrometeorological Forecasts ___________________________________________________________________________ 33 6.4 Hydrological Forecasts __________________________________________________________________________________ 34 7. Dissemination System for Forecasts and Warning Products ________________________________________ 36 8. Operation and Maintenance ______________________________________________________________________ 37 9. Services Delivery System _________________________________________________________________________ 38 9.1 Public Weather Services ________________________________________________________________________________ 38 9.2 Hydrological Services ___________________________________________________________________________________ 38 9.3 Agricultural Meteorological Services _____________________________________________________________________ 39 9.4 Climate Services _______________________________________________________________________________________ 41 10. Assessment of User Needs for Weather, Water and Climate Services _____________________ 42 10.1 Ministry of Emergency Situations Rescue Service________________________________________________________ 42 10.2 Ministry of Agriculture _________________________________________________________________________________ 43 10.3 State Committee of Water Economy____________________________________________________________________ 43 10.4 Yerevan Municipality __________________________________________________________________________________ 44 10.5 Ministry of Nature Protection __________________________________________________________________________ 44 10.6 National Statistical Service _____________________________________________________________________________ 44 10.7 Ministry of Territorial Administration and Development __________________________________________________ 44 10.8 UNDP Climate Change Program _______________________________________________________________________ 45 10.9 Summary of User Needs _______________________________________________________________________________ 45 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT) 11. Modernization of Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Middle Income Countries __________ 46 12. Proposed Road Map to Modernize the Armenian Hydrometeorological Service ____________________ 52 12.1 Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building _______________________________________________________ 52 12.1.1 Institutional Strengthening __________________________________________________________________________ 52 12.2 Modernization of Observation Infrastructure, Data Management Systems and Forecasting _________________________________________________________________ 54 12.2.1 Meteorological Observation Infrastructure ___________________________________________________________ 54 12.2.2 Modernization of AHS Data Management, Communications and ICT System ___________________________ 54 12.2.3 Meteorological Forecasting __________________________________________________________________________ 54 12.2.4 Hydrological Observation Infrastructure ______________________________________________________________ 55 12.2.5 Hydrological Forecasting ____________________________________________________________________________ 56 12.3 Delivery of Services ___________________________________________________________________________________ 57 12.3.1 Strengthening Public Weather Services _______________________________________________________________ 58 12.3.2 Developing a Comprehensive Nationwide Drought Monitoring Program ________________________________ 59 12.3.3 Further Development of a National Framework for Climate Services ___________________________________ 59 13. Road Map Scenarios ____________________________________________________________________________ 60 13.1 Scenario 1: Low-Cost, High-Priority Activities ___________________________________________________________ 61 13.2 Scenario 2: Intermediate Modernization ________________________________________________________________ 63 13.3 Scenario 3: Investment to attain Middle Income Countries’ Capabilities ___________________________________ 64 13.3.1 Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building ______________________________________________________ 64 13.3.2 Modernization of Observation Infrastructure, Data Management Systems and Forecasting _________________________________________________________________ 64 13.3.3 Enhancement of the AHS Service Delivery Process ____________________________________________________ 65 14. Economic Benefits of Improved Hydrometeorological Services ___________________________________ 66 14.1 Previous Assessment __________________________________________________________________________________ 66 14.2 Approach _____________________________________________________________________________________________ 67 14.3 Benefits from Reduced Disaster Losses _________________________________________________________________ 67 14.4 Benefits from Increased Production ____________________________________________________________________ 69 14.5 Cost–Benefit Analysis _________________________________________________________________________________ 70 14.6 Sensitivity Analysis ____________________________________________________________________________________ 72 14.7 Conclusions __________________________________________________________________________________________ 72 15. Conclusions and Way Forward _________________________________________________________________________ 73 List of References _____________________________________________________________________________________________ 75 Annex 1. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services categories __________________________________________ 77 Annex 2. Required Training Areas ______________________________________________________________________________ 82 Annex 3. Scenario 2: Intermediate Modernization, Proposed Activities and Cost Estimates ________________________ 83 Annex 4. Scenario 3: Full Modernization, Proposed Activities and Cost Estimates _________________________________ 85 4 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Elevation map of Armenia ____________________________________________________________________________ 14 Figure 2. Monthly temperature, series 1901–2015 _____________________________________________________________ 16 Figure 3. Monthly precipitation averages, series 1901 to 2015 __________________________________________________ 16 Figure 4. Administrative division of Armenia into marzes ________________________________________________________ 18 Figure 5. Percentage change in monthly precipitation
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