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Baltic Region ISSN 2079-8555 e-ISSN 2310-0524 BALTIC REGION 2019 Vol. 11 № 3 KALININGRAD Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University Press 2019 BALTIC Editorial council REGION Prof. Andrei P. Klemeshev, rector of the Immanuel Kant Baltic Fe de­ ral University, Russia ( Editor in Chief); Prof. Gennady M. Fedo rov, director of the Institute of Environmental Management, Terri to rial Development and Urban Construction, Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal 2019 University, Russia (Deputy Chief Editor); Prof. Dr Joachim von Braun, director of the Center for Development Research (ZEF), Professor, Volume 11 University of Bonn, Germany; Prof. Irina M. Busygina , Department of № 3 Comparative Politics, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), Russia; Prof. Ale ksander G. Druzhinin, director of the North Caucasian Research Institute of Economic and Social Problems, Southern Federal University, Russia; Prof. Mikhail V. Ilyin, Kaliningrad : Prof. of the Department of Comparative Politics, Moscow State I. Kant Baltic Federal Institute of International Re lations (MGIMO University), Russia; University Press, 2019. 170 р. Dr Pertti Joenniemi, senior researcher, Karelian Institute, University of Eastern Finland, Fin land; Dr Nikolai V. Kaledin, head of the The journal Department of Regional Policy & Political Geography, Saint Petersburg was established in 2009 State University, Russia (co­chair); Prof. Konstantin K. Khudolei, head of the De partment of European Studies, Faculty of International Frequency: Relations, Saint Petersburg State University, Russia; Dr Kari Liuhto, quarterly director of the Pan­European Institute, Turku, Finland; Prof. Vladimir in the Russian and English A. Ko losov, head of the Laboratory for Geopolitical Studies, Institute languages per year of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences; Prof. Gennady V. Kre­ tinin, Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal Uni versity, Russia; Prof. Vla dimir Founders A. Mau, rector, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy Immanuel Kant Baltic and Public Administration, Russia; Prof. Andrei Yu. Mel ville, dean of Federal University the Faculty of Social Sciences, National Research University — Higher Saint Petersburg School of Eco nomics, Russia; Prof. Nikolai M. Mezhevich, Department State University of Euro pean Studies, Faculty of International Relations, Saint Petersburg State University, Russia; Prof. Tadeusz Palmowski, head of the Editorial Office Department of Regional Development, University of Gdansk, Po land; Address: Prof. Andrei E. Shastitko, head of the Department of Competitive and 14 Aleksandra Nevskogo St., Industrial Policy, Moscow State University, Russia; Prof. Aleksander Kaliningrad, 236016, Russia A. Sergunin, Department of History and Theory of International Relations, Saint Petersburg State University, Russia; Prof. Eduardas Managing editor: Spiriajevas, head of the Centre of Transborder Studies, Klaipeda University Tatyana Kuznetsova (Lithuania); Prof. Daniela Szymańska, head of the Department of Urban [email protected] Studies and Regional Development, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Tel.: +7 4012 59-55-43 Torun, Poland; Dr Viktor V. Voronov, Leading Research Fellow, Institute Fax: +7 4012 46-63-13 of Social Studies, Daugavpils University, Latvia. www.journals.kantiana.ru The opinions expressed in the articles are private opinions of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the founders of the journal © I. Kant Baltic Federal University, 2019 CONTENTS Geoeconomics and Geopolitics Khudoley K. K. The ‘сool war’ in the Baltic Sea Region: consequences and future scenarios .....................................................................................4 Zhiznin S. Z., Timokhov V. M. Economic and geopolitical aspects of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline ...............................................................25 Regional Economy Simonyan R. H. Russia-European Union and Russian-Chinese borderlands: economic and demographic dimension ...................................43 Smorodinskaya N. V., Katukov D. D. When and why regional clusters become basic building blocks of modern economy ......................................61 Mikhaylova А. А. In pursuit of an innovation development trajectory of the Kaliningrad region ............................................................................92 Political Regional Studies Vorotnikov V. V., Ivanova N. A. Russian soft power in the Baltic States through the lens of research: traditions, competition, confrontation ............107 Żęgota K. Polish-Russian relations as reflected in the programmes of right-wing political parties in Poland: a quantitative and qualitative analysis ........................................................................................................125 Dianina S. Yu., Khalil M. A., Glagolev V. S. Cultural Islam in Northern Europe .........................................................................................................142 Review Arlyapova E. S. A new step in the evolution of Russian political science ..... 161 GEOECONOMICS AND GEOPOLITICS THE ‘COOL WAR’ IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: CONSEQUENCES AND FUTURE SCENARIOS K. K. Khudoley a a Saint Petersburg State University Received 14 February 2019 7/9 Universitetskaya Embankment, doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2019-3-1 Saint Petersburg, Russia, 199034 © Khudoley K. K., 2019 The relevance of this topic is determined by the Baltic region playing a special role in the current confrontation between Russia and the West, which is most accurately defined by the term ‘cool war’. Russia borders on the EU and NATO in that region. In this study, I aim to demonstrate the impact of the ‘cool war’ on international re- lations in the region and explain why the preservation of the status quo is the most likely scenario. I conclude that, in recent years, a certain regrouping has occurred in the region: there has been a stepping-up on the activities of the US and NATO, whereas the influence of EU institutions has decreased. A deep rift has developed between Russia and all other states in the region. There are five possible mid-term scenarios, ranging from outright confrontation to effective cooperation: an armed conflict, a dramatic aggravation of the current tensions without an armed conflict, the continuation of the ‘cool war’, the normalisation of relations, and a transition to large-scale cooperation. I argue that the ‘cool war’ scenario is the most likely, and the other four belong to the realm of the politically possible. Although the improve- ment of relations with the other states in the region is not very probable, Russia will benefit from taking every possible step towards it. Keywords: Baltic Sea region, cool war, Cold War, foreign policy of Russia, USA, NATO, European Union To cite this article: Khudoley, K. K. 2019, The ‘cool war’ in the Baltic Sea Region: consequences and future scenarios, Balt. Reg., Vol. 11, no. 3, p. 4—24. doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2019-3-1. BALTIС REGION ‣ 2019 ‣ Vol. 11 ‣ № 3 K. K. Khudoley 5 Introduction The deterioration of the world situation is visible in the confrontation be- tween Russia and the West. Many politicians, experts, and journalists refer to it as a ‘new Cold War’. This designation, however, is not universal. On February 4, 2019, Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, stressed in his speech that we were facing a new era rather than a new cold war.1 According to Gültekin Sümer’s definition, which is the most accurate in my opinion, a cold war is ‘the highest stage of a polarized tension between two actors’. At the time of the Cold War, two actors monopolised world politics. Convinced that they were acting in the best interests of human- ity, they made international relations extremely ideologised. Firstly, any step taken by one actor, no matter how insignificant, was interpreted by the other as an existential threat. Secondly, both societies felt that they had an enemy that threatened their very existence. Thirdly, there was a threat of escalation to an all-out war [1]. I believe that today we are facing a completely different phenomenon. First- ly, the Cold War was not a mere confrontation between two power blocs but rather a conflict between two antagonistic socio-political systems, each seeking to destroy the other. What we have now is a struggle between two capital- isms — state-driven authoritarian capitalism and its liberal democratic coun- terpart. It is a confrontation between institutions rather than between socio-po- litical systems or civilisations. The goal of the actors is not to destroy each other but to change those international rules that, in their opinion, jeopardise their interests. The conflict is not antagonistic, and reconciliation is essentially possible. Although both parties are filled with fervour, the tensions do not stand comparison with the hatred of the Cold War. Secondly, unlike the Cold War, today’s confrontation is not global. Many countries of Latin America, Africa, Asia, and the post-Soviet space do not have a stance on the conflict. Thirdly, the major areas of confrontation have changed. At the heart of the Cold War were the arms race and, to a lesser extent, ideological struggle. To- day, the front line of confrontation runs through the realms of economy and cyberspace. 1 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. The speech and question and an- swer session given by Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov at the Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University, Bishkek, February 4, 2019. Official Website of the
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