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Market Insight Multifamily Report I Mid-Year 2018

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Market Insight Multifamily Report I Mid-Year 2018 MID-ATLANTIC & NEW YORK METRO MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY TEAM MARKET INSIGHT MULTIFAMILY REPORT I MID-YEAR 2018 The Cushman & Wakefield Mid-Atlantic & New York Metro Multifamily Advisory Team provides in-depth coverage of primary and secondary cities across these regions. In addition to analyzing multifamily rent and sales trends, this report examines employment data, job growth trends, key economic announcements, and development pipeline news. IN THIS EDITION: REGIONAL TRANSACTION LEADERS: NEW YORK METRO NEW YORK METRO ► Northern New Jersey BRIAN WHITMER ► Central New Jersey ► Fairfield County, CT PHILADELPHIA METRO ► Westchester County, NY KAREN IMAN ► Long Island, NY WASHINGTON DC METRO PHILADELPHIA METRO JORGE ROSA (Which includes Southern New Jersey, Delaware, Center City Philadelphia, and Eastern Pennsylvania Counties) WASHINGTON DC METRO ► Washington DC ► Baltimore ► Richmond ► Hampton Roads (Virginia Beach MSA) NEW YORK METRO ► Northern New Jersey ► Central New Jersey ► Fairfield County, CT ► Westchester County, NY ► Long Island, NY SELECTION OF RECENT TEAM ACTIVITY CLOSED CLOSED CLOSED OBSERVER PARK NOB HILL THE CAMBIUM Hoboken, NJ Syracuse, NY Larchmont, NY 224 Units / Built 1989 761 Units / Built 1969-1974 78 Units / Built 2016-2017 NEW YORK METRO TEAM ANDREW J. MERIN BRIAN J. WHITMER RYAN W. DOWD MARK C. PHILLIPS EXECUTIVE VICE CHAIRMAN EXECUTIVE MANAGING DIRECTOR ASSISTANT DIRECTOR FINANCIAL ANALYST D 201 460 3358 D 201 508 5209 D 201 508 5278 D 201 508 5290 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] MARKET INSIGHT Mid-Year 2018 NORTHERN NEW JERSEY 3 NORTHERN NEW JERSEY EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS ECONOMIC EXPANSION New Jersey’s labor market has remained on its course of modest growth. The following are select announcements from 2018: At 4.4%, the state’s unemployment rate improved since one year ago, The long-stalled $5 billion while private sector employment has increased by 54,200 jobs in that American Dream Meadowlands a megamall located in East Rutherford is expected to open in April time. Office-using employment has risen by 9,300 jobs over the last 12 2019. When the opens, visitors will months, mostly within the professional and business services sub-sector. 3 million square foot complex be able to do much more than just shop. American Dream will However, since the previous month, office-using employment has surged feature Big Snow America, the first indoor ski and snowboard by 2,300 jobs, which should correlate with improved occupancy levels park in the Western Hemisphere. An eight acre, glass-domed, in the state. DreamWorks water park, and a same-sized Nickelodeon Universe Theme park, will also be featured at the complex. NORTHERN NEW JERSEY JOB GROWTH TRENDS North American Properties plans to build a 418-acre development 1,980,000 2.00% on the Raritan River in Sayreville, NJ. The property will be over 5 1.80% a 1,960,000 million square feet of mixed use space to be completed by 2021, 1.60% costing $2.5 billion. 1,940,000 1.40% Jersey City proposed issuing a $170 million bond to purchase a 100- 1,920,000 1.20% acre parcel on the City’s West Side from Honeywell International Inc. Seen as the largest development in Jersey City since the early 1,900,000 1.00% a 1980s, the purchase would allow the city to control the amount of 0.80% 1,880,000 affordable housing that is constructed on the site. 0.60% 1,860,000 0.40% 1,840,000 0.20% 1,820,000 0.00% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2Q2018 Total Employment YOY % Job Change Source: REIS OUTLOOK • Northern New Jersey remains an attractive residential location as the high rental rates in New York City and the surrounding boroughs JOB GROWTH & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE continue to drive residents to New Jersey’s communities. • The Hudson River Waterfront continued to attract relocations of tech, financial and consumer products firms, and has reported year-over- +1.4 -70 year positive office absorption. % YOY BPS YOY • Transit-oriented locations continue to post the lowest vacancies and highest rent growth, attracting the attention of institutional capital. Average Q2 employment Average Q2 unemployment increased by 5,730 jobs increased to 4.4% MARKET INSIGHT Mid-Year 2018 NORTHERN NEW JERSEY 4 MULTIFAMILY TRENDS DEVELOPMENT / INVENTORY Second quarter asking rent growth from 2017 to 2018 was 2.8%. Vacancy According to REIS, 6,129 units will be delivered in 2018, an increase from the increased 80 bps year over year. 5,952 units delivered in 2017. Deliveries are expected to fall to 3,964 units in 2019 following the surge of development over the past few years. Notable 2018 completions included the 381-unit Ellipse, the 397-unit Marin +4.3 +80 Residences and 221-unit 333 Grand located in Jersey City, the 245-unit % YOY BPS YOY One Theater Square located in Newark, and the 334-unit Mew Edison Lofts located in West Orange. Average asking rent Vacancy increased to an increased to $1,903 average of 4.5% DEMOGRAPHIC FUNDAMENTALS Northern New Jersey is comprised of some of the wealthiest communities METRO VACANCY & RENT GROWTH RATES in the nation with residents having an average household income of over Asking rent growth was 2.8% as of 2Q 2018 and has averaged 4.4% over $110,000. the past three years and 3.8% over the past five years. 2010: 4,002,616 Vacancy increased YOY in 2018 to 4.5%. Vacancy has averaged 4.0% over POPULATION 2017: 4,147,515 the past five years, and is expected to tick up slightly as new inventory is 2022: 4,189,490 added to the apartment stock. 2010: 1,456,069 $2,200 6.00% HOUSEHOLDS 2017: 1,517,200 2022: 1,555,422 $2,000 5.00% AVERAGE 2010: $100,285 HOUSEHOLD 2017: $110,340 $1,800 4.00% INCOME 2022: $125,298 $1,600 3.00% $1,400 2.00% MULTIFAMILY FORECAST $1,200 1.00% The following are Cushman & Wakefield’s projections over the near term: $1,000 0.00% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2Q2018 Average Rent % Rent Growth % Vacancy Source: REIS PIPELINE % RENTS VACANCY GROWTH MARKET INSIGHT Mid-Year 2018 NORTHERN NEW JERSEY 5 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY MOST ACTIVE MARKET PLAYERS As of the second quarter 2018 Northern New Jersey’s total volume is $1.8 TOP NORTHERN NJ BUYERS - 2018 billion, a decrease of 15% YOY. Cap rates have declined slightly since this RANK BUYER TOTAL VOLUME NO. TRANSACTIONS time last year, down 10 basis points to an average of 5.1%. Investment activity was dominated by private buyers making up 64% of the activity. 1 Equity Residential $146,000,000 1 2 Kushner Companies $101,666,667 1 YTD SALES VOLUME 3 LaSalle $87,450,000 1 Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol 4 AJH Management $74,000,000 1 4,000 5 Greystar $69,400,000 1 3,500 TOP NORTHERN NJ SELLERS - 2018 Millions 3,000 RANK SELLER TOTAL VOLUME NO. TRANSACTIONS 1 JP Morgan $146,000,000 1 2,500 2 Greystar $101,666,667 1 2,000 Millions 3 URSA Development Group $87,450,000 1 1,500 4 Mesirow Financial $74,000,000 1 1,000 5 Intercoastal Group $70,500,000 1 500 0 CAP RATES Q1 '14 Q1 '15 Q1 '16 Q1 '17 Q1 '18 The market’s mid-quartile spread is 4.5% to 5.3% over the past 12 months. Per unit pricing feel slightly YOY while the average cap rate continued its Source: Real Capital Analytics downward trend. $300,000 6.00% NOTABLE SALES $250,000 5.75% • Equity Residential purchased The Rivington in Hoboken from JP Morgan for $608,333 per unit. The 240-unit mid-rise apartment $200,000 community was built in 1999 and was recently renovated in 2017. 5.50% $150,000 • LaSalle purchased The Jordan in Hoboken from URSA Development 5.25% for $550,000 per unit. The 159-unit mid-rise apartment community $100,000 was built in 2016. 5.00% • Kushner Companies purchased Prospect Place in Hackensack from $50,000 Greystar for $282,407 per unit. The 360-unit was built in 1998 and renovated in 2001. $0 4.75% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2Q2018 Avg. Price Per Unit Avg. Cap Rate Source: Real Capital Analytics MARKET INSIGHT Mid-Year 2018 NORTHERN NEW JERSEY 6 SUBMARKET OVERVIEW Every submarket experienced positive YOY rent growth with the average asking rents increasing most significantly in Hudson County (6.6%) and Bergen County (5.1%) submarkets. Passaic, Union, and East Essex Counties continued to demonstrate their stability with vacancy rates remaining flat YOY at 3.4%, 3.6% and 3.8% respectively. $3,500 6.5% RENTS & VACANCY BY SUBMARKET 6.0% $3,000 5.5% $2,500 5.0% $2,000 4.5% 4.0% $1,500 3.5% $1,000 3.0% $500 2.5% $0 2.0% Hudson County Bergen County West Essex County Morris County Passaic County Union County East Essex County Submarket Average Rent Submarket Average Vacancy Source: REIS MARKET INSIGHT Mid-Year 2018 CENTRAL NEW JERSEY 7 CENTRAL NEW JERSEY EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS ECONOMIC EXPANSION New Jersey’s labor market has remained on its course of modest growth. The following are select announcements from 2018: At 4.4%, the state’s unemployment rate improved since one year ago, while private sector employment has increased by 54,200 jobs in that a 1 million square feet of redevelopment targeted for the former time. Office-using employment has risen by 9,300 jobs over the last 12 Fort Monmouth by the end of 2018 as Monmouth County officials months, mostly within the professional and business services sub-sector.
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