Real Interest Rates in Hong Kong
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REAL INTEREST RATES IN HONG KONG By mid-1999, nominal interest rates in Hong Kong had dropped substantially from last year’s peaks, yet inflation had fallen even further. As a result, some conventional measures of real interest rates rose to unprecedented levels. There are several problems with common measures of real interest rates, however: they rely on backward- versus forward-looking measures of inflation; they employ inflation indices that may not accurately measure current market prices; and they are measured over short-term as opposed to long-term horizons. Beyond these definitional problems, the theoretical linkages between real interest rates, asset prices, and economic activity are often misunderstood. This article discusses these issues and presents a measure of the long-term expected real interest rate that shows a significantly different picture from conventional measures. This long-term rate fell significantly from peaks in 1998 through mid-1999, as nominal bond yields declined, while underlying long-term inflation expectations were relatively stable. Looked at from this perspective, the observed recovery in asset markets over this period is not as surprising as conventional measures of real rates would suggest. INTRODUCTION such as property, stocks, and capital goods depend on expectations of real interest rates over the The high level of real interest rates is often longer term, while observers commonly focus on viewed as a barrier to recovery in Hong Kong. short-term real rates. Finally, the dynamic Despite declines in nominal interest rates from the interactions between real interest rates and asset peaks reached last year, deflation has pushed up prices are often misunderstood. A rise in real commonly cited measures of real interest rates to interest rates does not, in theory, lead to an unprecedented levels. In the face of such high real ongoing decline in asset prices. Rather, asset prices interest rates, a durable recovery in asset prices or drop immediately, and subsequent recovery is economic activity is thought to be unlikely. Indeed, possible even though the level of real interest rates some observers perceive a significant risk that the may appear to remain high. economy could fall into a deflationary spiral, leading to prolonged stagnation. This paper reviews the evidence on real interest rates in Hong Kong. The next section There is no doubt that, both in theory and presents the definition of the real interest rate that practice, real interest rates are an important is commonly used by analysts, and examines its determinant of aggregate demand. Appropriately behaviour over the recent past. We then analyse measuring real interest rates and assessing their real interest rates from a conceptual perspective. In relationship to asset prices and real activity, light of this analysis, several pitfalls with however, is a complicated issue that involves a conventional views on real interest rates are number of subtle but important distinctions. The discussed. A methodology for constructing long- inflation component, for instance, should reflect a term inflation expectations is then described, and forward-looking measure of expected inflation, as the associated long-term real interest rate is opposed to the backward-looking measures presented. Finally, we assess the relationship QUARTERLY commonly used. In addition, the prices of assets between long-term real interest rates and activity. BULLETIN !"#$ 8/1999 1 HONG KONG MONETARY AUTHORITY CONVENTIONAL MEASURES OF REAL between the real rate shown in Chart 1 and INTEREST RATES economic activity. This is reflected in the view that high real interest rates will cause activity and asset Real interest rates are normally constructed prices in Hong Kong to decline further in the by subtracting observed “headline” CPI inflation period ahead, undermining prospects for recovery. from a short-term nominal interest rate. Such a measure is shown in Chart 1 for Hong Kong, A mechanical link of this type, however, is where the nominal interest rate is 3-month HIBOR belied by the longer-term historical experience, as and inflation is past 12-month growth in the well as developments since late last year. The upper composite CPI. Nominal 3-month HIBOR stood panel of Chart 2 graphs the short-term real about 51/2% in June of this year, down sharply from interest rate against real GDP growth. During 1991- the peaks of over 10% observed last year. 96, when real interest rates were significantly Nevertheless, the associated measure of the real negative, actual growth averaged just over 5%, interest rate rose steadily from slightly negative broadly in line with estimated potential growth. At levels in early 1997 to almost 91/2% as of June. the same time, CPI inflation trended down. A naive Chart 1 Typical Short-term Real Interest Rate (% per annum) 12 10 Nominal 9.3 8 6 5.3 4 2 0 -2 -4 Real -6 -8 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Compared with the troughs in 1992-93, the real view of the relationship between real interest rates, interest rate has increased by over 14 percentage growth, and inflation would be hard-pressed to points. Almost all of this swing is attributable to explain this episode: a period of sustained negative declines in the inflation component of the real rate, real interest rates of several percentage points as opposed to higher nominal interest rates. Clearly, would normally be expected to lead to significant the plausibility of this path for real interest rates economic overheating and spiralling inflation. As the depends importantly on the appropriateness of real interest rate began to rise in 1996-97, growth lagged CPI growth as an inflation measure. in activity actually accelerated temporarily, before QUARTERLY dropping sharply in the first half of 1998 as the BULLETIN Beyond these measurement issues, analysts Asian crisis intensified. !"#$ often assume a mechanical and direct relationship 8/1999 2 HONG KONG MONETARY AUTHORITY Chart 2a Short-term Real Interest Rate vs. Real GDP Growth (%) (% per annum) 40 16 Annualised QoQ GDP growth seasonally adjusted (LHS) 30 Short-term real rate (RHS) 12 4-quarter GDP growth (LHS) 9.3 20 8 10 4 -1.2 0 0 -3.4 -10 -4 -20 -8 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Chart 2b Short-term Real Interest Rate vs. Hang Seng Index (Index) (% per annum) 16000 9.3 10 12000 Hang Seng Index (LHS) 8 Short-term real rate (RHS) 8000 6 4 4000 2 0 0 -4000 -2 -8000 -4 -12000 -6 -16000 -8 -20000 -10 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Since that time, the short-term real interest inconsistencies between the common view and rate has risen to unprecedented levels. But, rather actual developments. Equity prices did rise than leading to an accelerating decline in output, significantly during the early 1990s, as real interest there are signs that activity has started to stabilise. rates fell to highly negative levels, but there were Quarter-on-quarter declines in real GDP on a no indications of a massive bubble in equity seasonally-adjusted basis narrowed to 0.6% markets developing. Even as real interest rates (quarterly rate) in the fourth quarter of 1998 and turned around during 1994-97, equity prices 0.3% in the first quarter of 1999. continued to rise strongly. While the market fell sharply with the onset of the Asian crisis, there has The relationship between the real interest been a substantial recovery since the third quarter rate and equity prices is shown in lower panel of of last year, in spite of further significant increases QUARTERLY Chart 2. Again, it is apparent that there are in the real interest rate as conventionally measured. BULLETIN !"#$ 8/1999 3 HONG KONG MONETARY AUTHORITY This anecdotal evidence casts doubt on the rate over this period, while the inflation rate would view that there is a direct, mechanical link between be the expected change in the price of consumer conventional measures of real interest rates, goods. It is important to note, however, that the economic activity, and asset markets. During some possibilities for intertemporal substitution vary episodes the expected relationship holds, but for widely across goods — people may well postpone others the link appears to be quite weak. This purchases of durable goods, such as cars, if the suggests that there are problems with some aspects price is expected to fall, but are much less likely to of the conventional view: either real interest rates postpone consumption of nondurables and services. are mismeasured; and/or the relationship between As discussed below, this distinction is important in economic activity and real interest rates is not as view of Hong Kong’s economic structure, which is simple as often believed. heavily weighted in terms of output toward the production of services rather than goods. As a CONCEPTUAL ISSUES result, intertemporal substitution effects are likely to have only a minor effect on the demand for Hong In assessing the conventional view, it is useful Kong’s output. to first review the theory of why real interest rates affect economic activity. This provides some Regarding the link between real interest rates conceptual guidance on the role of short- versus and asset prices, forward-looking models suggest long-term interest rates, and how inflation that the price of an asset in some initial period expectations should be measured. (p0) will be determined by the discounted value of the future stream of income expected to accrue to Regarding household spending, standard models it (ve): indicate that real interest rates impact through two channels: wealth effects and intertemporal p0 = ∫ vse e-r(s) ds . substitution effects.1 Wealth effects arise because higher real interest rates lower asset prices, If we assume that earnings are expected to inducing increases in household saving rates.