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Briefing Residential Sales February 2015 Savills World Research Shanghai Briefing Residential sales February 2015 Image: Citic Monarch, Xuhui SUMMARY 2014 ended on a high note as sales volumes in the first- and second-hand markets roared back to life and pricing levels stabilised. New commodity residential supply QoQ on an index basis to an average of With transaction volumes on the rise increased 21.4% quarter-on-quarter RMB68,100 per sq m in Q4/2014. and lower borrowing costs, Shanghai’s (QoQ) to 3.9 million sq m, while residential transaction prices are expected transaction volumes increased 65.1% 30 land plots were transacted in to continue to see moderate increases. QoQ, totalling 3.5 million sq m. Q4/2014, totalling nearly 3.7 million sq m of buildable area, an increase of 25.9% First-hand residential transaction QoQ. “Shanghai is expected to prices increased by 6.5% QoQ, averaging RMB28,600 per sq m in Q4/2014. Average accommodation value (AV) follow the central government’s reached over RMB15,000 per sq m in First-hand, high-end apartment supply Q4/2014, up from RMB9,100 per sq m lead by concentrating on long fell 34.8% QoQ to 171,200 sq m, with in Q3/2014, a new high for the Shanghai term regulatory improvements only 759 units added to the sales market. market. High-end apartment transaction volumes rather than only on short- increased 76% QoQ to 302,300 sq m. Average premium over the reserve price in Q4/2014 reached 34.3%, up from term supportive measures.” First-hand, high-end apartment an average of 31.6% in Q3/2014. transaction prices rebounded by 1.4% James Macdonald, Savills Research savills.com.cn/research 01 Briefing |Shanghai residential sales February 2015 Market overview GRAPH 1 Despite a slow start to the year Base lending rate and a tough mid-year period when 6 mth to 1 yr more than 5 yr residential prices in China started 8.0% to fall, the Chinese and Shanghai 7.5% residential markets rebounded towards the end of 2014. Sentiment 7.0% was improved by a series of measures to support demand in 6.5% the market as well as developers proactively reducing unsold inventory 6.0% levels through sales campaigns 5.5% which helped to kick start transaction volumes. Sales in the first-hand 5.0% commodity market increased 65% QoQ and by 60% QoQ in the second-hand market. Source: People's Bank of China, Savills Research GRAPH 2 Unsold inventory levels in the market First-hand commodity residential market supply, continued to rise in 2014 as supply outstripped demand by 2.7 million sq transactions and prices Q1/2006–Q4/2014 m. Despite this, first-hand transaction Supply (LHS) Transaction volume (LHS) Average transaction price (RHS) 7 35,000 prices recorded an un-weighted increase of 12.6% year-on-year (YoY) 6 30,000 reaching RMB27,200 per sq m for the average of the year. 5 25,000 RMB per sq m Market news 4 20,000 Shanghai eased definition of 3 15,000 ordinary housing million sq m 2 10,000 Shanghai, following Beijing, relaxed definitions of ordinary houses in 1 5,000 November 2014, the first revision since March 2012, allowing more 0 0 homebuyers to enjoy preferential Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 mortgage rates and lower taxes. Source: Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Centre, Savills Research TABLE 1 Key policies impacting the residential market, 2014 Time Brief Description Issued by Jan Localisation of housing policies Central government Feb One-child policy relaxed Shanghai Commission of Health and Family Planning Apr Joint-ownership housing units trial in six cities including Shanghai Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) May Five supporting measures. Mortgage priority to first-home buyers People's Bank of China (PBOC) Greater autonomy for local government to set annual land supply May Ministry of Land and Resources levels House purchase restrictions (HPR) cancelled or relaxed in many cities Jun Local governments (but not Shanghai) Reverse mortgage trial for citizens aged above 60 years old in four Jun MOHURD cities including Shanghai Shanghai relaxes rules on Housing Provident Fund withdrawal for Aug Shanghai government rental & property management payment Second-home buyers with no outstanding mortgages treated as first Sep PBOC house purchasers for mortgage purposes Nov Shanghai relaxes definition of ordinary housing Shanghai Housing Bureau Nov PBOC cuts interest rates by 40 bps PBOC Nov Shanghai lowers HPF loan rate by 25 bps Shanghai Housing Provident Fund Centre Dec Provisional regulation on real estate registration Central government 02 Briefing |Shanghai residential sales February 2015 Old criteria 1, 2015. Q4/2014 to 3.5 million sq m, but New criteria Ring roads (RMB remained down 4.7% YoY. The final (RMB million) million) All governments above county level burst of activity brought annual Within Inner 3.3 4.5 will designate special departments transaction volumes to 9.8 million sq Between inner 2.0 3.1 for registration in their areas and m, down 23.9% YoY. and outer follow instructions from higher Outside outer 1.6 2.3 governments. All real assets will be First-hand transaction prices Other criteria remain the same as the subject to this set of rules, including averaged RMB28,600 per sq m in previous, namely: collective ownership of land, Q4/2014, up 6.5% QoQ, a new high - Residential building should be no ownership of buildings and forests, for the Shanghai market. less than five storeys, or any old-style contracted land management rights, apartments. and rights to the use of construction With supply continuing to outstrip - Unit size below 140 sq m land, homesteads and maritime demand in 2014, unsold first-hand - Transaction price per sq m is areas. residential inventory levels reached required to be less than 1.44 times new highs of 13.4 million sq m with the average price of comparable The statement allows authorities more than 92,200 new units on the properties of the same class of land. three years to fully establish a unified sales market at the end of the year. registration system for the real estate This represents an increase of 3.6 PBOC cuts interest rates industry, and about four years to million sq m from a year earlier when PBOC cut interest rates in November run a unified registration information unsold inventory was just 9.8 million 2014, after more than two years management platform. sq m. since the last revision in July 2012. While an increase in transactional The five-year benchmark lending This is a major step forward for rate fell 40 basis points (bps) from the real estate market in China, GRAPH 3 6.55% to 6.15% while the one-year encouraging better record keeping, 3 lending rate fell 40 bps to 5.6% and market transparency, and laying the First-hand market inventory and the one-year deposit rate fell 25 bps foundations for more comprehensive digestion period, Jan 2008–Dec 2014 to 2.75%. The reduction in rates is and enforceable tax collection and Unsold inventory (LHS) Digestion period (RHS) primarily focused on supporting the policy implementation. 14 14 overall economy but has already, 12 12 along with other policies, had a big Overall commodity1 impact in the real estate market, residential market 10 10 attracting buyers back to the market Despite a slow start to the year, sales and giving developers a bit more volumes witnessed a significant pick- 8 8 months breathing space. up in the fourth quarter, benefitting 6 6 from supportive measures, interest million sq m China issued provisional regulation rate reductions and seasonal factors. 4 4 on real estate registration Commodity residential transaction The State Council, China's Cabinet, volumes increased by 65.1% in 2 2 issued provisional regulations on real 1 Commodity housing excludes residential proper- 0 0 estate registration in December 2014. ties designated for relocated residents under Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 urban redevelopment plans, as well as economical The regulations will take effect March housing. Source: Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Centre, Savills Research 3Includes both commodity and economical housing. TABLE 2 First-hand commodity residential market by property type, Q4/2014 Supply Transactions Average price Price index2 (Dec 2010 = sq m QoQ (%) sq m QoQ (%) RMB per sq m QoQ (%) QoQ (%) 100) Apartment 3,550,600 +20.4 3,094,600 +66.7 28,200 +7.3 - - Villa 373,400 +32.7 406,500 +53.8 31,300 +2.2 - - Overall 3,924,100 +21.4 3,501,100 +65.1 28,600 +6.5 118.6 -1.5 Source: Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Centre, National Bureau of Statistics, Savills Research 2This price index is based on 70 main city house indices published by NBS. TABLE 3 First-hand commodity residential market by property type, FY2014 Supply Transactions Average price million sq m YoY (%) million sq m YoY (%) RMB per sq m YoY (%) Apartment 11.1 +7.4 8.6 -24.9 26,600 +13.0 Villa 1.3 +0.3 1.1 -15.6 31,200 +8.3 Overall 12.4 +6.6 9.8 -23.9 27,200 +12.6 Source: Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Centre, Savills Research savills.com.cn/research 03 Briefing |Shanghai residential sales February 2015 activity towards the end of 2014 is also hit a new record of RMB22,700 Project focus encouraging, the volume of unsold per sq m, up 8.9% QoQ and 17.1% Citic Monarch (中信君廷名邸) inventory remains one of the key YoY.
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