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Probabilistic Assessment of Global Nuclear Power Plant Construction Through 2030

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Probabilistic Assessment of Global Nuclear Power Plant Construction Through 2030 Probabilistic Assessment of Global Nuclear Power Plant Construction Through 2030 Gerry Runte Worthington Sawtelle LLC November 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS I TABLES V FIGURES VII ABOUT WORTHINGTON SAWTELLE IX ABOUT THE AUTHOR IX LICENSING X 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.1 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 1 1.2 SCOPE 2 1.3 METHODOLOGY 2 1.4 OBSERVATIONS 3 1.5 FINDINGS 8 2 OVERVIEW 9 2.1 GLOBAL COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR POWER AND THE NUCLEAR “RENAISSANCE” 9 2.2 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 10 2.3 REASONS FOR COLLAPSE OF U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 11 2.3.1 HIGH ELECTRICITY COST 13 2.3.2 REGULATORY RISK AND UTILITY SYSTEM PLANNING 18 2.3.3 PROLIFERATION OF DESIGNS AND THE NUCLEAR REGULATORY REVIEW PROCESS 20 2.3.4 PUBLIC PERCEPTION 21 2.4 THE FUKUSHIMA DAICHI INCIDENT AND ITS IMPACT 22 2.4.1 THE INCIDENT 22 2.4.2 ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS 23 2.4.3 NATIONAL RESPONSES TO FUKUSHIMA 23 2.4.3.1 Japan 23 2.4.3.2 Europe 25 2.4.3.3 China 25 2.4.3.4 France 26 2.4.3.5 South Korea 26 2.4.3.6 U.S. 27 Probabilistic Assessment of Global Nuclear Power Plant Construction Through 2030 2.4.3.7 Unaffected Programs 28 2.5 NPP ECONOMICS 30 3 GLOBAL NUCLEAR POWER MARKET FORECAST 2013‐2030 34 3.1 GLOBAL NUCLEAR POWER MARKET FORECAST BASIS 34 3.2 GLOBAL NUCLEAR POWER MARKET FORECASTS BASED ON ANNOUNCED PLANS 40 3.2.1 ANNOUNCED AND LIKELY NPP CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY COUNTRY 40 3.2.1.1 Armenia 40 3.2.1.2 Bangladesh 40 3.2.1.3 Belarus 40 3.2.1.4 Brazil 41 3.2.1.5 Bulgaria 41 3.2.1.6 China 41 3.2.1.7 Czech Republic 51 3.2.1.8 Finland 51 3.2.1.9 France 52 3.2.1.10 India 52 3.2.1.11 Iran 53 3.2.1.12 Japan 54 3.2.1.13 Pakistan 55 3.2.1.14 Russia 56 3.2.1.15 Saudi Arabia 57 3.2.1.16 Slovakia 58 3.2.1.17 South Korea 59 3.2.1.18 Taiwan 60 3.2.1.19 Turkey 61 3.2.1.20 U.A.E. 61 3.2.1.21 U.K. 62 3.2.1.22 Ukraine 62 3.2.1.23 U.S. 63 3.2.1.24 Vietnam 64 3.2.2 GLOBAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS FORECAST BY MAJOR COUNTRIES 65 3.2.3 GLOBAL OVERNIGHT CAPITAL EXPENDITURES BY MAJOR COUNTRIES 67 3.3 PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR POWER PLANT MARKET 69 3.3.1 CAPACITY ADDITIONS 70 3.3.2 OVERNIGHT CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 71 © 2013, WORTHINGTON SAWTELLE LLC, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ii Probabilistic Assessment of Global Nuclear Power Plant Construction Through 2030 4 APPENDIX A NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE, SUPPLY CHAIN 73 4.1 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE 73 4.2 NUCLEAR SUPPLY CHAIN 75 5 APPENDIX B NUCLEAR POWER BASICS 78 5.1 NUCLEAR POWER GENERATION BASICS 78 5.1.1 LIGHT WATER REACTORS 80 5.1.1.1 Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) 80 5.1.1.2 Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) 81 5.1.1.3 Light Water Graphite Moderated Reactor 82 5.1.2 PRESSURIZED HEAVY WATER REACTOR (PHWR OR CANDU) 83 5.1.3 GAS COOLED REACTOR (GCR), ADVANCED GAS COOLED REACTOR (AGR), VERY HIGH TEMPERATURE REACTOR (VHTR) 84 5.1.4 FAST NEUTRON REACTORS 85 6 APPENDIX C NEXT GENERATION NPP TECHNOLOGIES 87 6.1 NEXT GENERATION NPP TECHNOLOGIES 87 6.2 LARGE 3RD GENERATION/ADVANCED NPP 89 6.3 SMALL MODULAR REACTOR TECHNOLOGIES 90 6.3.1 SMALL LWR 91 6.3.2 SMALL HTGR 93 6.3.3 SMALL LIQUID METAL‐COOLED AND FAST NEUTRON REACTORS 93 6.4 FOURTH GENERATION REACTOR DESIGNS 94 7 APPENDIX D GLOBAL MARKET CONDITIONS 97 7.1 MARKET DRIVERS 97 7.1.1 GLOBAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY AND DEMAND 97 7.1.1.1 Electricity Demand Forecasts 97 7.1.1.2 Demand Scenarios 102 7.1.1.3 Electricity Generation Supplies 103 7.1.2 ENERGY INDEPENDENCE AND SECURITY 109 7.1.3 REGULATORY/GOVERNMENT INCENTIVES 110 7.1.4 URANIUM FUEL RESOURCE AVAILABILITY 111 © 2013, WORTHINGTON SAWTELLE LLC, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED iii Probabilistic Assessment of Global Nuclear Power Plant Construction Through 2030 7.1.5 ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS AND CARBON MITIGATION 114 7.1.6 LOW COST SOLUTION 117 7.1.7 NATIONAL AND LOCAL RISK APPETITE 120 7.2 MARKET BARRIERS 122 7.2.1 FINANCIAL RISK 122 7.2.2 REGULATORY RISK 127 7.2.3 PUBLIC OPPOSITION 128 7.2.4 TRANSMISSION GRID IMPACTS 128 7.2.5 DECOMMISSIONING COSTS 129 7.2.6 SPENT FUEL STORAGE AND WASTE DISPOSAL 138 8 APPENDIX F NUCLEAR POWER STATISTICS 141 8.1 CURRENTLY OPERATING NPPS BY COUNTRY AND TECHNOLOGY 141 8.2 GROSS ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND NUCLEAR GENERATION BY COUNTRY IN 2012, RANKED BY PERCENTAGE NUCLEAR, GWH 159 8.3 SHARE OF NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY REGION IN 2011, RANKED BY PERCENTAGE 160 8.4 DISTRIBUTION OF OPERATING REACTOR TYPES BY REGION (AS OF 6/2012) 161 8.5 DISTRIBUTION OF OPERATING REACTOR TYPES BY COUNTRY (AS OF 6/2012) 162 9 APPENDIX F KEY PARTICIPANTS 164 9.1 AREVA 164 9.2 ATMEA 165 9.3 ATOMIC ENERGY OF CANADA 165 9.4 BABCOCK & WILCOX NUCLEAR OPERATIONS GROUP 166 9.5 CAMECO CORPORATION 166 9.6 CB&I (ACQUIRED THE SHAW GROUP INC.) 167 9.7 CHINA GUANGDONG NUCLEAR POWER GROUP 167 9.8 CHINA NATIONAL NUCLEAR CORPORATION 168 9.9 ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE S.A. 169 9.10 GEN 4 ENERGY (FORMERLY HYPERION POWER GENERATION) 170 9.11 GE HITACHI NUCLEAR ENERGY AND HITACHI‐GE NUCLEAR ENERGY 170 9.12 GENERAL ATOMICS 171 9.13 GENERATION MPOWER LLC 172 9.14 HOLTEC INTERNATIONAL, INC 172 9.15 IHI CORPORATION 172 © 2013, WORTHINGTON SAWTELLE LLC, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED iv Probabilistic Assessment of Global Nuclear Power Plant Construction Through 2030 9.16 KOREA ELECTRIC POWER CORPORATION 173 9.17 MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES 174 9.18 NUSCALE POWER 174 9.19 PEBBLE BED MODULAR REACTOR LTD. 175 9.20 RUSSIAN STATE NUCLEAR ORGANIZATIONS 175 9.20.1 ROSATOM 176 9.20.2 ATOMENERGOPROM 176 9.21 TOSHIBA 177 9.22 URENCO 178 9.23 WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC COMPANY LLC 178 9.24 KEY FIRMS NO LONGER PARTICIPATING 179 10 ABBREVIATIONS 180 TABLES TABLE 1 HYPOTHETICAL LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ($/MWH), COAL, NATURAL GAS AND NUCLEAR ............................................. 15 TABLE 2 U.S. NPP PURCHASES BY THIRD PARTIES SINCE 1998 ................................................................................................. 16 TABLE 3 ACTUAL AND ESTIMATED TOTAL COSTS OF U.S. NPPS IN OPERATION IN 1986, $/KW ...................................................... 19 TABLE 4 DIVERSITY OF U.S. REACTOR DESIGNS, 1965‐1975 ................................................................................................... 20 TABLE 5 LICENSING BACKLOGS, U.S. NPPS ........................................................................................................................... 21 TABLE 6 CHINA NUCLEAR PLANTS WITH SUSPENDED ACTIONS UNTIL 2015 ................................................................................. 25 TABLE 7 CURRENT NPP STATUS, DOE NUCLEAR POWER 2010 PROGRAM ................................................................................. 27 TABLE 8 OVERNIGHT COST FORECAST, NUCLEAR PLANTS, $/KW ($2012) .................................................................................. 30 TABLE 9 COST ESTIMATES COMPARED WITH ACTUAL COSTS 1966‐1977, $/KW ......................................................................... 38 TABLE 10 COST ESTIMATE REVISIONS, 2002–2012, $/KW ..................................................................................................... 39 TABLE 11 ARMENIA NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2012–2020 ................................................ 40 TABLE 12 BANGLADESH NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 – 2030 ......................................... 40 TABLE 13 BELARUS NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 – 2030 ............................................... 40 TABLE 14 BRAZIL NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 – 2030 .................................................. 41 TABLE 15 BULGARIA NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 – 2030 .............................................. 41 TABLE 16 CHINA NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 – 2030 ................................................... 43 TABLE 17 CZECH REPUBLIC NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 ‐ 2030 ...................................... 51 TABLE 18 FINLAND NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 ‐ 2030 ................................................ 51 TABLE 19 FRANCE NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 ‐ 2030 ................................................. 52 TABLE 20 INDIA NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 ‐ 2030 .................................................... 53 TABLE 21 IRAN NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 ‐ 2030 ...................................................... 54 TABLE 22 JAPAN NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 ‐ 2030 ................................................... 55 © 2013, WORTHINGTON SAWTELLE LLC, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED v Probabilistic Assessment of Global Nuclear Power Plant Construction Through 2030 TABLE 23 PAKISTAN NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 ‐ 2030 ............................................... 56 TABLE 24 RUSSIA NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014–2030 ................................................... 56 TABLE 25 SAUDI ARABIA NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 – 2030 ........................................ 58 TABLE 26 SLOVAKIA NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 ‐ 2030 ............................................... 59 TABLE 27 SOUTH KOREA NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014–2030 ......................................... 60 TABLE 28 TAIWAN NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014 ‐ 2030 ................................................. 61 TABLE 29 TURKEY NUCLEAR GENERATION PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION, 2014–2030 .................................................
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