Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia June 26, 2012 i US AND IRANIAN STRATEGIC COMPETITION: The Impact of Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Central Asia By Robert M. Shelala II, Nori Kasting, and Anthony H. Cordesman June 26, 2013 Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
[email protected] Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia June 26, 2012 ii Acknowledgements Sam Khazai and Sean Mann made important contributions to this analysis. Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia June 26, 2012 iii Executive Summary Security and stability in Central and South Asia are driven by regional tensions and quarrels, and the internal instability of regional states. Weak governance and corruption are major problems in every state in the region, along with state barriers to economic growth and development and – in most cases – under investment in education, health, and infrastructure. Very young populations face major unemployment and underemployment problems and income distribution is badly unbalanced, and on sharply favors the ruling power elite. Ethic, tribal, and sectarian tensions compound these problems, and in many cases, so do internal and external threats from Islamic extremists and the growing tensions between Sunni and Shi‟ite. The tensions between the US and Iran have been peripheral to these forces and are likely to remain so – particularly since the US is largely leaving Afghanistan and has steadily declined strategic interest in Pakistan and Central Asia as well. The one exception that might sharply increase US and Iranian competition would be a contingency where a major confrontation or conflict between the US and Iran that began in the Gulf – or outside Central and South Asia – led Iran to be far more aggressive in attacking or challenge UDS interest in the region.