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The IMF Is in the Midst of Implementing A INTERNATIONAL M O N E TA R Y FUND IMFDECEMBER 1 1 , 2 0 0S 6 urveyVOL. 3 5 , NO. 2 2 www.imf.org/imfsurvey IMF bolsters its financial expertise page 344 One of the big changes under way at the IMF is a stepped-up focus on financial sector issues. Called in to lead the effort is Jaime Caruana, former Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. In a wide-ranging interview, he explains how the IMF will integrate the financial sec- tor into its regular review of country policies, and weighs the new risks and complexities of the global capital markets. Stephen Jaffe/IMF IMF pushes to modernize surveillance page 348 The IMF is updating its methods for exchange rate analysis as part of a broader effort to improve its ability to meet the needs of its 184 member countries in today’s globalized world. In an interview, Carlo Cottarelli, Deputy Director of the IMF’s Policy Development and Review Department, explains the rationale behind these and other changes to the IMF’s surveillance tool kit and sheds light on how they fit in with the IMF’s overall reform agenda. Michael Spilotro/IMF Rebalancing is the key to sustaining China’s growth IN THIS ISSUE page 350 China’s growth remains strong and inflation is under control, accord- 342 What’s on ing to the IMF’s annual review of the economy. Over the medium 342 IMF financial data term, however, China will need to rely less on investment and exports 343 In the news and more on consumption if it is to sustain high growth. The review IMF work program noted that appreciation of the currency was needed to stem the rapid Debt sustainability pace of investment growth now and would also play a key role in Interview with Jaime Caruana helping to rebalance the economy in the medium term. Brown/AFP Photo Frederic J. 347 Country briefs Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago Korea sets sights on creating another miracle 348 Policy page 352 IMF updates surveillance Korea achieved spectacular growth and turned a poor agricultural econ- 350 Country focus omy into an industrial powerhouse. But significant longer-term prob- China, Korea lems loom: output growth potential is slowing as the population ages 354 Research rapidly, capital accumulation decelerates, and productivity growth falls. Capital flows To reverse this, Korea needs to further integrate with the global economy 356 by deregulating and opening up its financial and service sectors and labor Forum Fiscal federalism market and creating a knowledge-based, advanced-technology economy. Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution What’s on D ECEMBER 16–17 12th Euromoney Central FEBRUARY 12–18 Annual Conference of and Eastern European (CEE) the Parliamentary Network of the 14 143rd (Extraordinary) Forum, “The CEE: Separating 7–8 2nd OECD Forum in World Bank, South Africa Meeting of the OECD and Rhetoric from Reality,” Vienna, Mexico: International Forum Development Conference, Abuja, Austria on Public Policies for the Nigeria Development of Mexico, APRIL organized by OECD, World 2–4 3rd Secondary Education 22 Bank of Japan International Bank, UNDP, Inter-American 14 IMF Book Forum, “China and in Africa Regional Conference, Symposium, “Ten Years After Development Bank, and India: Expanding Roles in the Ghana Ministry of Education, the Asian Currency Crisis: Economic Commission for Latin Word Economy,” Washington, D.C., Accra, Ghana Future Challenges for the America and the Caribbean, United States Asian Economies and Financial Mexico City, Mexico Markets,” Tokyo, Japan 14–15 2007 Spring Meetings JANUARY 2007 13–15 Global Forum: of the World Bank Group and Building Science, Technology, the IMF, Washington, D.C., United 5–7 Annual Meeting, American 22–24 World Sustainable and Innovation Capacity States Economic Association, Chicago, Development Forum: “Meeting for Sustainable Growth and Illinois, United States the MDGs: Exploring the Natural Poverty Reduction, World Bank, 26–27 “New Perspectives Resource Dimensions,” Energy Washington, D.C., United States and Resources Institute, New on Financial Globalization,” Delhi, India MARCH conference sponsored by the IMF Executive Board IMF Research Department and For an up-to-date listing of IMF 4–6 Institute of International Cornell University, Washington, Executive Board meetings, see 24–28 World Economic Bankers’ 2007 Annual D.C., United States, see www. www.imf.org.external/np/sec/bc/ Forum Annual Meeting, Davos, Washington Conference, eng/index.asp imf.org.external/np/seminars/ Switzerland Washington, D.C., United States eng/2007/finglo/042607.htm IMF financial data Total IMF credit and loans outstanding, by region Major currencies, rates per SDR (billion SDRs, end of period) 80 Year ago 60 November 15, 2006 (November 15, 2005) 40 Euro 1.158810 1.217110 Japanese yen 174.473000 168.697000 20 U.K. pound 0.785768 0.819914 0 U.S. dollar 1.485350 1.420010 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 as of 10/31/06 Europe (includes Latin America Africa Asia Turkey and Russia) Middle East and the Caribbean Related rates SDR interest rate, rate of charge on IMF nonconcessional loans HIPC debt relief1 outstanding, and dollars per SDR (billion SDRs, end of period) (percent, end of period) (dollars per SDR, end of period) 2.0 6 1.6 Dollars per SDR 5 (right scale) 1.5 Rate of charge 4 (left scale) 1.0 3 1.4 2 0.5 1 SDR interest rate (left scale) 0.0 0 1.2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 as of 11/22/06 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1Cumulative disbursements under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative. 11/22/06 Note: Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) are an international reserve asset, created by the serves as the unit of account of the IMF and some other international organizations. IMF in 1969 to supplement the existing official reserves of member countries. SDRs Its value is based on a basket of key international currencies. are allocated to member countries in proportion to their IMF quotas. The SDR also 6 Dollars per SDR (right scale) 5 Rate of charge (left scale) 4 SDR interest rate (left scale) 342 3 IMF SURVEY 2 1 ©International Monetary Fund.0 Not for Redistribution 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 11/22/06 In the news IMF sets rigorous work agenda; quota issue is key utlining the IMF’s work program for the next several months, Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato said in a O statement to the Executive Board that the organization must harness the momentum of the Singapore annual meet- ing and press forward on reforms designed to better align members’ quotas with changes in the world economy and protect the participation and voice of low-income countries. The work program in advance of the IMF’s April spring IMF Photo meeting will also focus on putting into action the remaining Reforms linked to the IMF’s medium-term strategy will be a major focus of the elements of the Fund’s medium-term strategy, notably efforts Executive Board’s work over the next several months. to strengthen the organization’s core work—its monitoring of the global economy and its policy advice to member coun- and sequence it carefully. The agenda is ambitious both because tries. The IMF is moving to strengthen its surveillance frame- of the staff work and Executive Board discussions that it will work and sharpen the focus of surveillance activities (also see entail, and because of the proactive outreach effort that will be page 348). As part of the Fund’s commitment to meeting the a key part of the quota and voice initiative, the reform of the evolving needs of its members, it will also step up its work Fund’s surveillance framework, and efforts to reach agreement on designing policies to provide greater support for emerg- on how the IMF can strengthen its support for emerging mar- ing market and low-income countries (see related story on ket economies and improve its crisis prevention tools. n improvements in debt sustainability framework, below). Given the importance and the challenging nature of the The full text of de Rato’s statement on the work program is available online (www.imf.org); see IMF Press Release No. 06/267. IMF’s work program, de Rato said, it will be vital to prioritize Debt sustainability framework for low-income countries upgraded fter providing debt relief to the world’s poorest heavily • a stronger basis for the growth projections used in the indebted countries, the IMF and the World Bank have framework. Debt distress is often triggered by low growth. Astrengthened a key tool—their debt sustainability frame- • alerts when debt buildups or growth assumptions are work—designed to help low-income countries adopt prudent abnormally high. borrowing strategies and foster better information exchange • careful assessment of nonconcessional financing pack- between creditors and borrowers. ages. Low-income countries should continue to rely on con- Speaking to reporters on December 7, Adnan Mazarei cessional finance, with nonconcessional debt considered on and Martine Guerguil of the IMF’s Policy Development and a case-to-case basis. Review Department explained that a dramatic reduction in • a vehicle for better data dissemination and coordination. debt burdens under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative All borrowers and creditors should be familiar with this tool, had created opportunities for low-income countries to invest and the Fund will make an extra effort to ensure it is used more in achieving the Millennium Development Goals, but better by staff. it also raises new sources of vulnerabilities that could lead to The ultimate objective of the framework is to help authori- another round of debt problems.
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