Meteorological and Hydrological Aspects of Siting and Operation of Nuclear Power Plants
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Guidelines on Meteorological and Hydrological Aspects of Siting and Operation of Nuclear Power Plants 2020 edition WEATHER CLIMATE WATER CLIMATE WEATHER WMO-No. 550 Guidelines on Meteorological and Hydrological Aspects of Siting and Operation of Nuclear Power Plants 2020 edition WMO-No. 550 EDITORIAL NOTE The following typographical practice has been followed: Standard practices and procedures have been printed in bold. Recommended practices and procedures have been printed in regular font. Notes have been printed in smaller type. METEOTERM, the WMO terminology database, may be consulted at http://public.wmo.int/en/ resources/meteoterm. WMO-No. 550 © World Meteorological Organization, 2020 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chair, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 P.O. Box 2300 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 81 17 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland Email: [email protected] ISBN 978-92-63-10550-9 NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. PUBLICATION REVISION TRACK RECORD Part/ Date chapter/ Purpose of amendment Proposed by Approved by section CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . ix 1 . INTRODUCTION . 1 2 . NECESSARY INFORMATION – METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL ASSESSMENT 3 2.1 Generic specifications ....................................................... 3 2.1.1 Introduction ........................................................ 3 2.1.2 Meteorological assessment ............................................ 4 2.1.3 Hydrological assessment .............................................. 8 2.2 Observations ............................................................... 12 2.2.1 General considerations ............................................... 12 2.2.2 Meteorological observations and instruments ............................ 13 2.2.3 Hydrological observations ............................................ 20 2.3 Data analysis ............................................................... 24 2.3.1 Meteorological and climatological data analysis .......................... 24 2.3.1.1 General procedure for assessing meteorological hazards ......... 24 2.3.1.2 Rarely occurring hazardous meteorological phenomena .......... 24 2.3.1.3 Statistical methods for analysing climatological datasets .......... 25 2.3.2 Hydrological–hydrometeorological analysis .............................. 26 2.3.2.1 Methods of analysis. 26 2.3.2.2 Probable maximum precipitation and probable maximum flood ... 31 2.3.2.3 Hydrological studies to support model development ............. 33 2.3.2.4 Studies to support surge model development ................... 36 2.4 Meteorological (numerical weather prediction) analyses .......................... 36 2.4.1 Available meteorological analyses ...................................... 36 2.4.2 Methods for creating a representative analysis ........................... 38 2.4.3 Diagnostic mass-consistent wind field analyses ........................... 39 2.4.4 Combined physical and statistical downscaling ........................... 39 2.4.5 Examples ........................................................... 40 2.4.5.1 WindNinja diagnostic wind field model ........................ 40 2.4.5.2 Uncoupled high-resolution land surface model ................. 40 2.4.5.3 Real-time mesoscale analysis system ........................... 41 2.4.5.4 Meteorological nowcasting systems ........................... 42 2.4.6 Integrated approach useful for atmospheric dispersion .................... 43 2.5 Climate predictions and projections ........................................... 43 2.5.1 Climate predictions .................................................. 43 2.5.2 Climate projections .................................................. 44 2.6 Uncertainties in data and model estimates ...................................... 45 2.6.1 Introduction ........................................................ 45 2.6.2 Predictive uncertainty ................................................ 46 2.6.3 Ensemble prediction system ........................................... 47 2.6.4 Further thoughts on uncertainty ....................................... 53 2.7 Climatological products ...................................................... 54 2.8 Sources of and access to meteorological and hydrological information and products .. 56 2.8.1 History of catchment flooding ......................................... 57 2.8.2 History of dangerous weather events ................................... 58 2.9 Quality management, communication of information and understanding of technical outputs ........................................................... 59 2.9.1 Quality management ................................................. 59 2.9.2 Communication of information and understanding of technical outputs ..... 60 2.10 Periodic safety review and update ............................................. 61 3 . ASSESSMENT OF METEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS . 62 3.1 General considerations ...................................................... 62 vi GUIDELINES ON METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL ASPECTS OF SITING AND OPERATION OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS Page 3.2 Extreme meteorological phenomena ........................................... 62 3.2.1 Minimum and maximum daily air temperatures .......................... 63 3.2.2 Dry and wet bulb temperatures (humidity). 63 3.2.3 Maximum wind speed ................................................ 63 3.2.4 Extreme maximum and minimum precipitation .......................... 63 3.2.5 Extreme snowpack. 63 3.3 Rare meteorological phenomena .............................................. 64 3.3.1 Lightning. 64 3.3.2 Tropical cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes .............................. 64 3.3.3 Tornadoes .......................................................... 64 3.4 Other meteorological phenomena ............................................. 65 3.4.1 Duststorms and sandstorms ........................................... 65 3.4.2 Hail ................................................................ 65 3.4.3 Freezing precipitation and frost-related phenomena ...................... 65 3.5 Transport, dispersion and deposition of airborne radioactivity ..................... 65 3.5.1 Introduction ........................................................ 65 3.5.2 Basics of atmospheric transport and dispersion ........................... 66 3.5.3 Atmospheric transport and dispersion models ............................ 66 3.5.4 Source-term estimation ............................................... 67 4 . ASSESSMENT OF HYDROLOGICAL HAZARDS . 68 4.1 Extreme flood events ........................................................ 68 4.2 Rare flood events ........................................................... 71 4.2.1 Probable maximum flood ............................................. 71 4.2.2 Dam break and glacial lake outburst floods .............................. 72 4.2.3 Tsunamis ........................................................... 74 4.2.4 Storm surges ........................................................ 75 4.3 Low-flow risk ............................................................... 79 4.3.1 Low-flow indices ..................................................... 80 4.3.2 Recession analysis .................................................... 80 4.3.3 Flow-duration curves ................................................. 81 4.3.4 Extreme value analysis. 82 4.3.5 Streamflow deficit ................................................... 83 4.4 High groundwater levels ..................................................... 84 4.5 Water contamination ........................................................ 86 5 . DESIGN-BASIS PARAMETERS . 88 5.1 Meteorological parameters ................................................... 88 5.2 Hydrological parameters. 90 5.2.1 Local flooding ....................................................... 91 5.2.2 Design-basis flood ................................................... 91 6 . MEASURES FOR SITE PROTECTION . 93 6.1 Types of protection .......................................................... 93 6.2 Analysis of protection ........................................................ 93 6.3 Stability of the shoreline ...................................................... 94 7 . CHANGES IN HAZARDS WITH TIME . 95 7.1 Climate change and hazards .................................................. 95 7.1.1 Synthesis of recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change findings .... 95 7.1.1.1 Implications in terms of design parameters ..................... 96 7.1.1.2 Changes in extreme events with time .......................... 98 7.1.1.3 Datasets for indices of climate extremes derived from in situ data .. 98 7.1.2 Tropical cyclones and storm surges