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Brazil Ahead of the 2018 Elections
BRIEFING Brazil ahead of the 2018 elections SUMMARY On 7 October 2018, about 147 million Brazilians will go to the polls to choose a new president, new governors and new members of the bicameral National Congress and state legislatures. If, as expected, none of the presidential candidates gains over 50 % of votes, a run-off between the two best-performing presidential candidates is scheduled to take place on 28 October 2018. Brazil's severe and protracted political, economic, social and public-security crisis has created a complex and polarised political climate that makes the election outcome highly unpredictable. Pollsters show that voters have lost faith in a discredited political elite and that only anti- establishment outsiders not embroiled in large-scale corruption scandals and entrenched clientelism would truly match voters' preferences. However, there is a huge gap between voters' strong demand for a radical political renewal based on new faces, and the dramatic shortage of political newcomers among the candidates. Voters' disillusionment with conventional politics and political institutions has fuelled nostalgic preferences and is likely to prompt part of the electorate to shift away from centrist candidates associated with policy continuity to candidates at the opposite sides of the party spectrum. Many less well-off voters would have welcomed a return to office of former left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2010), who due to a then booming economy, could run social programmes that lifted millions out of extreme poverty and who, barred by Brazil's judiciary from running in 2018, has tried to transfer his high popularity to his much less-known replacement. -
The Week in Review on the ECONOMIC FRONT GDP: the Brazilian Statistics Agency (IBGE) Announced That GDP Growth for the Second Quarter Totaled 1.5%
POLICY MONITOR August 26 – 30 , 2013 The Week in Review ON THE ECONOMIC FRONT GDP: The Brazilian Statistics Agency (IBGE) announced that GDP growth for the second quarter totaled 1.5%. This year, GDP grew by 2.1%. Interest Rate: The Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) of the Central Bank unanimously decided to raise interest rates by 0.5% to 9%--the fourth increase in a row. The Committee will hold two more meetings this year. Market analysts expect interest rates to rise by at least one more point to 10%. Strikes: Numerous groups of workers are under negotiations with the government for salary adjustments. Among those are regulatory agencies, national transportation department (DNIT), and livestock inspectors. DNIT workers have been on strike since June and livestock inspectors begun their strike on Thursday. On Friday, union workers will hold demonstrations throughout the country. Tourism: A study conducted by the Ministry of Tourism showed that the greatest cause of discontent for tourists coming to Brazil was high prices. The second most important reason was telecommunication services. Airport infrastructure, safety, and public transportation did not bother tourists as much and were ranked below both issues. Credit Protection: The Agency for Credit Protection Services (SPC Brasil) announced that the largest defaulting groups are in the middle class (Brazilian Class C). Forty-seven percent of all defaults are within Class C, 34% in Class B, and 13% in Class D. Forty-six percent of respondents claim to have been added to the list of default due to credit card payment delays and 40% due to bank loans. -
The Political Context of Eu Accession in Hungary
European Programme November 2002 THE POLITICAL CONTEXT OF EU ACCESSION IN HUNGARY Agnes Batory Introduction For the second time since the adoption of the Maastricht Treaty – seen by many as a watershed in the history of European integration – the European Union (EU) is set to expand. Unlike in 1995, when the group joining the Union consisted of wealthy, established liberal democracies, ten of the current applicants are post-communist countries which recently completed, or are still in various stages of completing, democratic transitions and large-scale economic reconstruction. It is envisaged that the candidates furthest ahead will become members in time for their citizens to participate in the next elections to the European Parliament due in June 2004. The challenge the absorption of the central and east European countries represents for the Union has triggered a need for internal institutional reform and new thinking among the policy-makers of the existing member states. However, despite the imminence of the ‘changeover’ to a considerably larger and more heterogeneous Union, the domestic profiles of the accession countries have remained relatively little known from the west European perspective. In particular, the implications of enlargement in terms of the attitudes and preferences of the new (or soon to be) players are still, to a great extent, unclear. How will they view their rights and obligations as EU members? How committed will they be to the implementation of the acquis communautaire? In what way will they fill formal rules with practical content? BRIEFING PAPER 2 THE POLITICAL CONTEXT OF EU ACCESSION IN HUNGARY Naturally, the answers to these questions can only government under the premiership of Miklós Németh be tentative at this stage. -
2021 Year Ahead
2021 YEAR AHEAD Claudio Brocado Anthony Brocado January 29, 2021 1 2020 turned out to be quite unusual. What may the year ahead and beyond bring? As the year got started, the consensus was that a strong 2019 for equities would be followed by a positive first half, after which meaningful volatility would kick in due to the US presidential election. In the spirit of our prefer- ence for a contrarian stance, we had expected somewhat the opposite: some profit-taking in the first half of 2020, followed by a rally that would result in a positive balance at year-end. But in the way of the markets – which always tend to catch the largest number of participants off guard – we had what some would argue was one of the strangest years in recent memory. 2 2020 turned out to be a very eventful year. The global virus crisis (GVC) brought about by the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic was something no serious market observer had anticipated as 2020 got started. Volatility had been all but nonexistent early in what we call ‘the new 20s’, which had led us to expect the few remaining volatile asset classes, such as cryptocurrencies, to benefit from the search for more extreme price swings. We had expected volatilities across asset classes to show some convergence. The markets delivered, but not in the direction we had expected. Volatilities surged higher across many assets, with the CBOE volatility index (VIX) reaching some of the highest readings in many years. As it became clear that what was commonly called the novel coronavirus would bring about a pandemic as it spread to the remotest corners of the world at record speeds, the markets feared the worst. -
Freedom in the World Report 2020
Brazil | Freedom House Page 1 of 19 BrazilFREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2020 75 FREE /100 Political Rights 31 Civil Liberties 44 75 Free Global freedom statuses are calculated on a weighted scale. See the methodology. Overview https://freedomhouse.org/country/brazil/freedom-world/2020 3/6/2020 Brazil | Freedom House Page 2 of 19 Brazil is a democracy that holds competitive elections, and the political arena is characterized by vibrant public debate. However, independent journalists and civil society activists risk harassment and violent attack, and the government has struggled to address high rates of violent crime and disproportionate violence against and economic exclusion of minorities. Corruption is endemic at top levels, contributing to widespread disillusionment with traditional political parties. Societal discrimination and violence against LGBT+ people remains a serious problem. Key Developments in 2019 • In June, revelations emerged that Justice Minister Sérgio Moro, when he had served as a judge, colluded with federal prosecutors by offered advice on how to handle the corruption case against former president Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, who was convicted of those charges in 2017. The Supreme Court later ruled that defendants could only be imprisoned after all appeals to higher courts had been exhausted, paving the way for Lula’s release from detention in November. • The legislature’s approval of a major pension reform in the fall marked a victory for Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, who was inaugurated in January after winning the 2018 election. It also signaled a return to the business of governing, following a period in which the executive and legislative branches were preoccupied with major corruption scandals and an impeachment process. -
ESS9 Appendix A3 Political Parties Ed
APPENDIX A3 POLITICAL PARTIES, ESS9 - 2018 ed. 3.0 Austria 2 Belgium 4 Bulgaria 7 Croatia 8 Cyprus 10 Czechia 12 Denmark 14 Estonia 15 Finland 17 France 19 Germany 20 Hungary 21 Iceland 23 Ireland 25 Italy 26 Latvia 28 Lithuania 31 Montenegro 34 Netherlands 36 Norway 38 Poland 40 Portugal 44 Serbia 47 Slovakia 52 Slovenia 53 Spain 54 Sweden 57 Switzerland 58 United Kingdom 61 Version Notes, ESS9 Appendix A3 POLITICAL PARTIES ESS9 edition 3.0 (published 10.12.20): Changes from previous edition: Additional countries: Denmark, Iceland. ESS9 edition 2.0 (published 15.06.20): Changes from previous edition: Additional countries: Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden. Austria 1. Political parties Language used in data file: German Year of last election: 2017 Official party names, English 1. Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (SPÖ) - Social Democratic Party of Austria - 26.9 % names/translation, and size in last 2. Österreichische Volkspartei (ÖVP) - Austrian People's Party - 31.5 % election: 3. Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ) - Freedom Party of Austria - 26.0 % 4. Liste Peter Pilz (PILZ) - PILZ - 4.4 % 5. Die Grünen – Die Grüne Alternative (Grüne) - The Greens – The Green Alternative - 3.8 % 6. Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (KPÖ) - Communist Party of Austria - 0.8 % 7. NEOS – Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (NEOS) - NEOS – The New Austria and Liberal Forum - 5.3 % 8. G!LT - Verein zur Förderung der Offenen Demokratie (GILT) - My Vote Counts! - 1.0 % Description of political parties listed 1. The Social Democratic Party (Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs, or SPÖ) is a social above democratic/center-left political party that was founded in 1888 as the Social Democratic Worker's Party (Sozialdemokratische Arbeiterpartei, or SDAP), when Victor Adler managed to unite the various opposing factions. -
Myths and Images in Global Climate Governance, Conceptualization and the Case of Brazil (1989 - 2019)
Article Myths and images in global climate governance, conceptualization and the case of Brazil (1989 - 2019) DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0034-7329201900205 Revista Brasileira de Rev. Bras. Polít. Int., 62(2): e005, 2019 Política Internacional ISSN 1983-3121 Abstract http://www.scielo.br/rbpi Countries have a self-image of their role in global climate governance. If that image does not correspond to the country’s actual level of climate power, 1 Matias Alejandro Franchini commitment and leadership, it becomes a myth. In this article, we define climate 1Universidad del Rosario - Political Science, Government and International self-images/myths and analyze comprehensively the Brazilian case between Relations, Bogotá, Colombia 1989 and 2019. For most of this period, Brazil’s self-image was a myth. ([email protected]) ORCID ID: Keywords: Global Environmental Governance; Brazilian Foreign Policy; orcid.org/0000-0002-6831-5944 International Political Economy of Climate Change 2Eduardo Viola 2Universidade de Brasília, Institute of International Relations, Brasília, Brazil Received: April 30, 2019 ([email protected]). ORCID ID: Accepted: July 14, 2019 orcid.org/0000-0002-5028-2443 Introduction uring the second half of the 2000s, the Brazilian D government consolidated an official narrative of the country as a major reformist power in the governance of climate change. This self-image had three central dimensions: Brazil as a major agent in the global carbon cycle; a key player in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations, and a developing country that far exceeded its obligations to contribute to stabilizing global Copyright: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, thus becoming a role model • This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons in terms of mitigation actions. -
The Democratic Party and the Transformation of American Conservatism, 1847-1860
PRESERVING THE WHITE MAN’S REPUBLIC: THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF AMERICAN CONSERVATISM, 1847-1860 Joshua A. Lynn A dissertation submitted to the faculty at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of History. Chapel Hill 2015 Approved by: Harry L. Watson William L. Barney Laura F. Edwards Joseph T. Glatthaar Michael Lienesch © 2015 Joshua A. Lynn ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ii ABSTRACT Joshua A. Lynn: Preserving the White Man’s Republic: The Democratic Party and the Transformation of American Conservatism, 1847-1860 (Under the direction of Harry L. Watson) In the late 1840s and 1850s, the American Democratic party redefined itself as “conservative.” Yet Democrats’ preexisting dedication to majoritarian democracy, liberal individualism, and white supremacy had not changed. Democrats believed that “fanatical” reformers, who opposed slavery and advanced the rights of African Americans and women, imperiled the white man’s republic they had crafted in the early 1800s. There were no more abstract notions of freedom to boundlessly unfold; there was only the existing liberty of white men to conserve. Democrats therefore recast democracy, previously a progressive means to expand rights, as a way for local majorities to police racial and gender boundaries. In the process, they reinvigorated American conservatism by placing it on a foundation of majoritarian democracy. Empowering white men to democratically govern all other Americans, Democrats contended, would preserve their prerogatives. With the policy of “popular sovereignty,” for instance, Democrats left slavery’s expansion to territorial settlers’ democratic decision-making. -
Brazil: Background and U.S. Relations
Brazil: Background and U.S. Relations Updated July 6, 2020 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R46236 SUMMARY R46236 Brazil: Background and U.S. Relations July 6, 2020 Occupying almost half of South America, Brazil is the fifth-largest and fifth-most-populous country in the world. Given its size and tremendous natural resources, Brazil has long had the Peter J. Meyer potential to become a world power and periodically has been the focal point of U.S. policy in Specialist in Latin Latin America. Brazil’s rise to prominence has been hindered, however, by uneven economic American Affairs performance and political instability. After a period of strong economic growth and increased international influence during the first decade of the 21st century, Brazil has struggled with a series of domestic crises in recent years. Since 2014, the country has experienced a deep recession, record-high homicide rate, and massive corruption scandal. Those combined crises contributed to the controversial impeachment and removal from office of President Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016). They also discredited much of Brazil’s political class, paving the way for right-wing populist Jair Bolsonaro to win the presidency in October 2018. Since taking office in January 2019, President Jair Bolsonaro has begun to implement economic and regulatory reforms favored by international investors and Brazilian businesses and has proposed hard-line security policies intended to reduce crime and violence. Rather than building a broad-based coalition to advance his agenda, however, Bolsonaro has sought to keep the electorate polarized and his political base mobilized by taking socially conservative stands on cultural issues and verbally attacking perceived enemies, such as the press, nongovernmental organizations, and other branches of government. -
UNIVERSITY of CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Outsider Politics: Radicalism
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Outsider politics : Radicalism as a Political Strategy in Western Europe and Latin America A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Verónica Hoyo Committee in charge: Professor William Chandler, Chair Professor Matthew Shugart, Co-Chair Professor Akos Rona-Tas Professor Sebastian Saiegh Professor Kaare Strom 2010 Copyright Verónica Hoyo, 2010 All rights reserved. The Dissertation of Verónica Hoyo is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: Co-Chair Chair University of California, San Diego 2010 iii DEDICATION A mis padres, Irma y Gonzalo, y a mi hermana Irma. Gracias por ser fuente constante de amor, inspiración y apoyo incondicional. Esto nunca hubiera sido posible sin ustedes. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature Page.............................................................................................................. iii Dedication..................................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents.......................................................................................................... v List of Abbreviations...................................................................................................... vi List of Tables................................................................................................................... xii List of Graphs................................................................................................................ -
BOTS, SOCIAL NETWORKS and POLITICS in BRAZIL Analysis of Interferences Made by Automated Profiles in the 2014 Elections
POLICY PAPER BOTS, SOCIAL NETWORKS AND POLITICS IN BRAZIL Analysis of interferences made by automated profiles in the 2014 elections The action of bot networks This study shows the use of automated profiles that shared contents of Aécio’s, Dilma’s and Marina’s campaigns. Evidence of interference The analysis revealed the presence of Russian bots in the dissemination of campaign material. DAPP.FGV.BR Alert for 2018 elections The risks identified warn against the use of public resources in online FGV.DAPP campaigns conducted by political parties for the 2018 presidential elections. FGVDAPP MARCH, 15TH 2018 Policy Paper • BOTS, SOCIAL NETWORKS AND POLITICS IN BRAZIL • Analysis of interferences made by automated profiles in the 2014 elections Rio de Janeiro FGV DAPP 2018 Contents • 1. Executive Summary 4 2. Introduction 6 Flow chart - Aécio Neves’s Campaign 9 Flow chart - Dilma Rousseff’s Campaign 10 3. Identification of bots 11 CASE 1 - Aécio Neves’s Campaign 12 CASE 2 - Marina Silva’s Campaign 14 CASE 3 - Dilma Rousseff’s Campaign 15 4. Identification of foreign influence 18 5. Public policies recommendations 33 6. Appendices 35 CASE 1 - Aécio Neves’s Campaign 36 CASE 2 - Marina Silva’s Campaign 51 CASE 3 - Dilma Rousseff’s Campaign 52 References 57 FGV DAPP 3 1. Executive Summary 1.1. The use of bots and automated profiles in the political debate are risks known to the democratic process since at least 2014, according to the FGV DAPP’s study from August 20171. The study which showed the presence of “bots” acting in favor of the main political fields on Twitter during elections that year. -
Casaroes the First Y
LATIN AMERICA AND THE NEW GLOBAL ORDER GLOBAL THE NEW AND AMERICA LATIN Antonella Mori Do, C. Quoditia dium hucient. Ur, P. Si pericon senatus et is aa. vivignatque prid di publici factem moltodions prem virmili LATIN AMERICA AND patus et publin tem es ius haleri effrem. Nos consultus hiliam tabem nes? Acit, eorsus, ut videferem hos morei pecur que Founded in 1934, ISPI is THE NEW GLOBAL ORDER an independent think tank alicae audampe ctatum mortanti, consint essenda chuidem Dangers and Opportunities committed to the study of se num ute es condamdit nicepes tistrei tem unum rem et international political and ductam et; nunihilin Itam medo, nondem rebus. But gra? in a Multipolar World economic dynamics. Iri consuli, ut C. me estravo cchilnem mac viri, quastrum It is the only Italian Institute re et in se in hinam dic ili poraverdin temulabem ducibun edited by Antonella Mori – and one of the very few in iquondam audactum pero, se issoltum, nequam mo et, introduction by Paolo Magri Europe – to combine research et vivigna, ad cultorum. Dum P. Sp. At fuides dermandam, activities with a significant mihilin gultum faci pro, us, unum urbit? Ublicon tem commitment to training, events, Romnit pari pest prorimis. Satquem nos ta nostratil vid and global risk analysis for pultis num, quonsuliciae nost intus verio vis cem consulicis, companies and institutions. nos intenatiam atum inventi liconsulvit, convoliis me ISPI favours an interdisciplinary and policy-oriented approach perfes confecturiae audemus, Pala quam cumus, obsent, made possible by a research quituam pesis. Am, quam nocae num et L. Ad inatisulic team of over 50 analysts and tam opubliciam achum is.