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The Taliban Insurgency in Afghanistan CENTRAL EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY The Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan: A study of transnational factors By Mohammad Wahdat Wassel Submitted to Central European University Department of Political Science In partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of the Master of Arts Supervisor: Professor Matteo Fumagalli CEU eTD Collection Budapest, Hungary 2012 i In the Name of God, the Most Compassionate, the Most Merciful CEU eTD Collection ii Acknowledgements: I have conducted this study with the help and support of several people. First of all, I am grateful to my supervisor, Professor Matteo Fumagalli, who was not only supportive and stimulating but also tremendously patient with me, as I changed my research question a couple of times before I reached a conclusion. Without his support this thesis would not have materialized. I want to express tremendous gratitude to my wife Mina. She has been extremely supportive and patient when I was busy researching or writing for hours. I also want to thank my friend Yama Wida for his insightful comments on the write-up. Special thanks to my parents who always prayed for me and made sure that I ate well and exercised during busy times. I am grateful to all my interviewees and Nader Omar. I dedicate this thesis to my son Elias, who has just started to crawl. CEU eTD Collection iii MAP OF AFGHANISTAN CEU eTD Collection iv TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................ v List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. vi List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... vii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................. viii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 1 1. The Context and Parameters of this Research....................................................................................... 1 2. The Argument of this Thesis ................................................................................................................. 5 3. Argument and Research Questions ....................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................. 9 1. Insurgency ............................................................................................................................................. 9 2. ‘Motivation theories’ of Insurgency ................................................................................................... 10 Grievance-based literature on Afghanistan ......................................................................................... 10 Greed-based literature on Afghanistan ............................................................................................... 13 Circumstance-based literature on Afghanistan ................................................................................... 15 ‘Opportunity theories’ and insurgency ............................................................................................... 17 3. Transnational Insurgency .................................................................................................................... 18 External opportunities in a rival and weak neighbouring state ........................................................... 21 Refugees and ethnic-alike groups in the neighbouring state ............................................................... 22 Extra-territorial Sanctuaries ................................................................................................................ 24 Framework in brief ............................................................................................................................. 27 CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS ........................... 28 Research Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 28 Limitations .............................................................................................................................................. 30 CHAPTER FOUR: THE TALIBAN’S TRANSNATIONAL INSURGENCY ........................... 32 Section One: Rival neighbors ................................................................................................................. 32 Section Two: Weak Neighbours ............................................................................................................. 39 Section Three: Refugees in neighboring country .................................................................................... 50 Section Four: Bisected ethnic groups...................................................................................................... 61 Section Five: Extraterritorial Bases: ....................................................................................................... 64 Extraterritorial bases and support ....................................................................................................... 65 The ever-expanding insurgency has endured for a long period .......................................................... 70 Why can it not be settled? ................................................................................................................... 75 CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION............................................................................................... 81 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 81 Findings .................................................................................................................................................. 82 Appendix A ................................................................................................................................... 87 CEU eTD Collection Appendix B ................................................................................................................................... 89 REFERENCE LIST ...................................................................................................................... 91 v List of Tables Table 1: Civilian Casualties 2006-2011 .......................................................................................... 3 Table 2: U.S. Aid to Pakistan 2001-2012 ..................................................................................... 39 Table 3: Ethnic Groups in Afghanistan ........................................................................................ 64 CEU eTD Collection vi List of Figures Figure 1: Map of Afghanistan and the region ............................................................................... 33 Figure 2: Failed States Index Data 2011 ....................................................................................... 41 Figure 3: Fund for Peace regional map ......................................................................................... 41 Figure 4: Social and economic indicators, Pakistan ..................................................................... 42 Figure 5: Political and military indicators, Pakistan ..................................................................... 42 Figure 6: Topographical map of Afghanistan ............................................................................... 44 Figure 7: Reasons for travel to Pakistan ....................................................................................... 46 Figure 8: Map showing FATA and NWFP ................................................................................... 47 Figure 9: Map showing the disputed lands collectively called as Pashtunistan. .......................... 48 Figure 10: Afghan refugee flows, 1979-1990 ............................................................................... 52 Figure 11: Top three refugee producing countries ........................................................................ 53 Figure 12: UNHCR Refugee Statistics for 2011........................................................................... 54 Figure 13: Census of Afghans in Pakistan, 2005 .......................................................................... 58 Figure 14: Afghanistan ethnic group map .................................................................................... 63 Figure 15: Afghan Opposition Groups initiated attacks – Countrywide ...................................... 70 Figure 16: AOG-initiated attacks, 2006-2008 .............................................................................. 71 Figure 17: Growth in AOD attacks ............................................................................................... 71 Figure 18: Tribes and Insurgents in Loya Paktia .......................................................................... 74 Figure 19: Taliban logistical roads ............................................................................................... 75 CEU eTD Collection vii ABSTRACT In this thesis I investigate how a wide array of extraterritorial factors have affected the
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