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IRP Attachment Vol. 2

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IRP Attachment Vol. 2 Attachment 4.1 Load Research [170 IAC 4-7-4 Sec 4 (2) A-E] Load shape data is maintained by IPL at the rate class/customer class level. The sample for the Small Commercial Class Rate SS is stratified using NAICS codes in to manufacturing low and high use and non-manufacturing low and high use strata. All load research is developed by IPL. IPL currently maintains a load research sample of 562 load profile meters. The distribution of these meters by rate and class are shown in the following table. Load Research Meters by Rate and Class Rate RS 126 Rate SS 95 Rate RC 102 Rate SH 68 Rate RH 151 Residential 379 Sm C & I 163 In addition to the Residential and Small Commercial/Industrial meters outlined above, all Large Commercial/Industrial have 15 minute profile metering. The 15 minute information provides load research and billing increment data for our demand sensitive customers. Table 1 shows the load research sample design which is designed based upon a 90% confidence interval plus or minus 10% error. The stratification criteria are shown for the following rates: RS – Residential Basic Service RC – Residential Basic Service with electric water heating RH – Residential Basic Service with electric heat SS – Small Commercial & Industrial Secondary Service (Small) SH – Small Commercial & Industrial Secondary Service (Electric Space Conditioning Table 1 STRATIFICATION CRITERIA BY RATE Rate # of Strata Criteria RS 4 high/low winter and high/low summer RC 4 high/low winter and high/low summer RH 5 small/large heat pump houses, small/large resistance houses and apartments SS 4 survey small/large by manufacturing; non-manufacturing; billing manufacturing/non-manufacturing SH 4 annual kWh Hourly 8760 data is retained in EXCEL spreadsheets. Historical Billing Data Historical billing data by account for the demand billed customers is maintained on an on-going basis. IPL 2016 IRP Attachment 4.2 (2015 Hourly Loads by Rate and Class) is provided electronically. Attachment 4.3 2016 Long-Term Electric Energy and Demand Forecast Report Indianapolis Power & Light Submitted to: Indianapolis Power & Light Indianapolis, Indiana Submitted by: Itron, Inc. 20 Park Plaza Suite 428 Boston, Massachusetts 02116 (617) 423-7660 July 19, 2016 Contents CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................................... I 1 OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................ 1 2 FORECAST APPROACH ......................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 RESIDENTIAL MODELS .............................................................................................................................. 7 2.2 NONRESIDENTIAL MODELS .................................................................................................................... 10 2.3 STREET AND SECURITY LIGHTING MODELS ............................................................................................ 13 2.4 ENERGY AND PEAK FORECAST MODELS ................................................................................................. 14 3 FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................................................. 18 3.1 WEATHER DATA ..................................................................................................................................... 18 3.2 ECONOMIC DATA .................................................................................................................................... 21 3.3 PRICES .................................................................................................................................................... 25 3.4 APPLIANCE SATURATION AND EFFICIENCY TRENDS ............................................................................... 25 4 FORECAST SENSITIVITIES ................................................................................................................. 28 5 APPENDIX A: MODEL STATISTICS .................................................................................................. 31 6 APPENDIX B: RESIDENTIAL SAE MODELING FRAMEWORK .................................................. 51 6.2 RESIDENTIAL STATISTICALLY ADJUSTED END-USE MODELING FRAMEWORK ....................................... 51 6.2.1 Constructing XHeat ...................................................................................................................... 52 6.2.2 Constructing XCool ...................................................................................................................... 54 6.2.3 Constructing XOther ..................................................................................................................... 56 7 APPENDIX C: COMMERCIAL SAE MODELING FRAMEWORK ................................................ 58 7.2 COMMERCIAL STATISTICALLY ADJUSTED END-USE MODEL FRAMEWORK ............................................ 58 7.2.1 Constructing XHeat ...................................................................................................................... 59 7.2.2 Constructing XCool ...................................................................................................................... 61 7.2.3 Constructing XOther ..................................................................................................................... 62 Long-Term Energy and Demand Forecast Page i IPL 1 Overview Indianapolis Power & Light Company (IPL) serves over 480,000 customers in the city of Indianapolis and surrounding area (primarily Marion County). The service area includes a large non-residential base that accounts for nearly two thirds of IPL’s sales. In 2015, residential sales represented 37% of sales, Small Commercial & Industrial 13%, Large Commercial & Industrial 13, and Street Lighting 1% of sales. Figure 1 shows 2015 class- level sales distribution. Figure 1: 2015 Class Sales (kWh) Distribution Long-Term Energy and Demand Forecast Page 1 IPL Figure 2 shows total system energy requirements and actual annual peak demand from 2005 to 2015. Figure 2: IPL System Energy Requirements Since 2005, total system energy requirements have been trending down. System energy requirements in 2015 were 14,471 GWh compared with system energy requirements of 16,006 GWh in 2005. Energy requirements on average have declined 1.0% annually over this period. Part of the decline can be contributed to the 2008 recession and the slow recovery. Between 2007 and 2011 customer growth actually declined 0.1% per year. Since 2011, customer growth has bounced back with residential customer growth averaging 0.8% per year and non- residential customer growth averaging 0.4% per year. But despite increase in customer growth and business activity, sales have still been falling 1.0% per year. The primary contributing factor to this decline in customer usage is significant improvements in lighting, appliance and business equipment efficiency. Efficiency improvements have largely been driven by new end-use efficiency standards and IPL’s Demand Side Management (DSM) program activity. Long-Term Energy and Demand Forecast Page 2 IPL Over the next twenty years, energy requirements are expected to increase 0.5% annually and system peak demand 0.4% annually, before adjusting for future DSM programs1. Table 1-1 shows annual energy and demand forecast before DSM program savings. Table 1-1: Energy and Demand Forecast (Excluding Future DSM Program Savings) Year Energy (GWh) Peaks (MW) 2016 14,487 2,863 2017 14,707 1.5% 2,866 0.1% 2018 14,713 0.0% 2,864 -0.1% 2019 14,717 0.0% 2,862 -0.1% 2020 14,761 0.3% 2,870 0.3% 2021 14,751 -0.1% 2,868 -0.1% 2022 14,797 0.3% 2,875 0.2% 2023 14,870 0.5% 2,885 0.4% 2024 14,967 0.7% 2,900 0.5% 2025 15,005 0.3% 2,907 0.3% 2026 15,074 0.5% 2,920 0.4% 2027 15,152 0.5% 2,933 0.5% 2028 15,268 0.8% 2,952 0.7% 2029 15,332 0.4% 2,965 0.4% 2030 15,423 0.6% 2,983 0.6% 2031 15,520 0.6% 3,002 0.6% 2032 15,651 0.8% 3,026 0.8% 2033 15,731 0.5% 3,042 0.5% 2034 15,853 0.8% 3,065 0.7% 2035 15,979 0.8% 3,088 0.8% 2036 16,135 1.0% 3,116 0.9% 2037 16,223 0.5% 3,134 0.6% 16-37 0.5% 0.4% 1 Future DSM programs refers to the amount of DSM that the IPL 2016 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) selects. The forecasts presented in this report have not been adjusted for this DSM since Itron’s scope only included providing pre-adjusted forecasts to be used as IRP inputs. DSM adjustments have been made by IPL based on the amount of DSM selected through the IRP process. These adjustments are provided in the IRP report. Long-Term Energy and Demand Forecast Page 3 IPL 2 Forecast Approach The forecast approach is similar to method used by other state electric utilities. The process begins by developing customer sales forecast and using forecast results to drive future energy requirements and peak demand. Rather than develop sales forecast for the generalized rate classes (i.e., Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Street Lighting), IPL forecasts sales at the rate-schedule level and aggregates rate-schedule sales forecast to rate-classes. The reason is that IPL uses a single monthly forecast for near-term budget and financial planning and long-term resource planning. IPL revenue forecast requires sales forecast at the rate-class and even billing determinant level. Table 2-1 shows the specific rate-schedules
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