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Final Plan -- Volume 1

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Final Plan -- Volume 1 Table of Contents Section 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................... 1 Background ................................................................................................................................. 2 Existing Resources ...................................................................................................................... 3 Thermal Generation ................................................................................................................. 3 Wind and Solar Generation ..................................................................................................... 4 Impact of Environmental Regulations on Generation Resources ............................................... 5 New Generation ....................................................................................................................... 6 Transmission and Distribution Enhancements ........................................................................ 7 IRP Modeling Scenarios.............................................................................................................. 7 Key Driver #1 - Future Environmental Regulation ................................................................. 8 Key Driver #2 – Natural Gas Prices ........................................................................................ 9 Key Driver #3 – Load Variation .............................................................................................. 9 Resource Modeling Results ....................................................................................................... 11 Capacity Purchases ................................................................................................................ 12 Preferred Portfolio ................................................................................................................. 13 Research & Development/Technology Applications ............................................................ 13 Portfolio 2024 and 2034 ............................................................................................................ 14 Section 2. THE CHANGING BUSINESS LANDSCAPE ...................................................... 16 Changing Regulatory Landscape .............................................................................................. 16 Contemporary IRP Inputs and Methodology ............................................................................ 18 Risk Mitigation .......................................................................................................................... 18 Financing ................................................................................................................................... 21 Demand Side Management ....................................................................................................... 22 Forecast ..................................................................................................................................... 22 Fuel Landscape .......................................................................................................................... 23 Environmental Landscape ......................................................................................................... 24 Transmission Expansion Cost Sharing ...................................................................................... 26 Battery Energy Storage Systems ............................................................................................... 26 Section 3. ENVIRONMENTAL RULES and REGULATIONS ............................................ 28 i Existing Regulations – Significant Environmental Effects ....................................................... 29 Air Emissions ........................................................................................................................ 29 Water ..................................................................................................................................... 35 Solid Waste (Solid Waste, Hazardous Waste and Disposal) ................................................. 36 Pending and Future Regulations – Significant Environmental Effects ..................................... 37 Cross State Air Pollution Rule............................................................................................... 37 National Ambient Air Quality Standards .............................................................................. 38 Greenhouse Gas Regulation .................................................................................................. 38 Cooling Water Intake Structures – Clean Water Act Section 316(b) .................................... 39 Coal Combustion Residuals (CCR) ....................................................................................... 40 Summary of Potential Impacts .............................................................................................. 40 Section 4. INTEGRATION .......................................................................................................... 41 Resource Evaluation Process .................................................................................................... 41 Resource Planning Criteria........................................................................................................ 43 Resource Adequacy Requirements ........................................................................................ 44 Planning Reserve Margin Modeling ...................................................................................... 45 Planning Year beginning June 1, 2015 and ending May 31, 2016 ........................................ 45 Determine Resource Needs ....................................................................................................... 46 Load Forecast, Incorporation of Demand Side Management, and Application of Planning Criteria ................................................................................................................................... 46 Supply Resource Modeling ....................................................................................................... 47 National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (“NPDES”) Analysis ............................. 47 Existing Generation ............................................................................................................... 48 New Generation Resource Modeling .................................................................................... 49 Capacity Purchase Modeling ................................................................................................. 50 IRP Modeling Scenarios............................................................................................................ 50 Key Driver #1 – Future Environmental Regulation .............................................................. 51 Key Driver #2 – Natural Gas Prices ...................................................................................... 52 Key Driver #3 - Load Variation ............................................................................................ 52 Supply Resource Evaluation ..................................................................................................... 54 Overall Methodology Description ......................................................................................... 54 ii Capacity Expansion Simulation Methodology ...................................................................... 54 Capacity Expansion Results .................................................................................................. 56 Evaluation of Scenario Resource Plans ..................................................................................... 58 Plan 1 Expansion ................................................................................................................... 60 Plan 2 Expansion ................................................................................................................... 61 Plan 3 Expansion ................................................................................................................... 62 Plan 4 Expansion ................................................................................................................... 63 Plan 5 Expansion ................................................................................................................... 64 PVRR Scenario Results for the Resource Plans........................................................................ 65 Wind Sensitivities .................................................................................................................. 72 Wind Sensitivities Results ..................................................................................................... 73 Scenario Evaluation Results Summary .................................................................................. 74 Comparative Air Emissions by Resource Plan ...................................................................... 75 Comparative Annual Costs by Resource Plan ....................................................................... 76 Results Summary and Resource Selection Overview ............................................................... 78 IPL’s Preferred Portfolio ..........................................................................................................
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