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The Rise of the Megalopolis R.C THE RISE OF THE MEGALOPOLIS R.C. “RICK” MOBLEY, ASLA, AICP, FITE REGIONAL DIRECTOR OF TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AT RS&H MEGALOPOLIS A VERY LARGE, HEAVILY POPULATED CITY OR URBAN COMPLEX Snapshot » Global Trends » US Trends » Texas Trends » Demographic Trends » Questions and Discussions GLOBAL TRENDS |POPULATION|URBANIZATION| World Population Reached 7.3 Billion by Mid 2015 Asia North America 22% and Oceania 25% Africa 12% Latin America and Caribbean Europe 23% 18% Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects World Population by Age Group » More than half of the population >60 yrs is between the ages of 15 and 59 12% <15 yrs 26% 15-59 yrs 62% Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects World Population by Year & Group » As the world population 11.0 increases, trends 10.0 indicate the urban 9.0 population will continue to increase, reaching 8.0 over 6 billion by 2050 1950 7.0 1970 6.0 » The rural population 1990 5.0 peaks in 2030 2030 4.0 2050 POPULATION IN BILLIONS POPULATION 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 World World Urban World Rural Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects World Population by Group » Although the population 400% will continue to increase, data shows population growth has slowed since 300% 1970 and will continue to slow until 2050 1950-1970 200% 1970-1990 » Data shows the world 1990-2014 rural population will 2014-2030 100% experience a decline 2030-2050 starting in 2030 AVG ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE RATE ANNUAL AVG 0% World World Urban World Rural -100% Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects World Population Average Annual Rate of Change by Group » World population 190% 183% growth is slowing down 129% 94% 63% 1950-1970 1970-1990 1990-2014 2014-2030 2030-2050 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects World Urban Population Average Annual Rate of Change by Group » World urban population growth is slowing down 296% 263% 221% 166% 113% 1950-1970 1970-1990 1990-2014 2014-2030 2030-2050 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects World Rural Population Average Annual Rate of Change by Group 137% » World rural population 130% is declining 43% 1% 1950-1970 1970-1990 1990-2014 2014-2030 2030-2050 -23% Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects UNITED STATES TRENDS |POPULATION|URBANIZATION| US Population by Year » The US population is 400 increasing and will reach 350 an estimated 389 Million 300 by 2050 1950 250 1970 200 1990 2030 150 2050 POPULATION IN MILLIONS POPULATION 100 50 0 United States Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects US Population Density by Year » The US population 45.0 density will increase to 40.0 an estimated 43 persons 35.0 per square mile by 2050 30.0 1950 1970 25.0 1990 20.0 2030 15.0 2050 10.0 DENSITY(PERSONS PERMILE) SQUARE 5.0 0.0 United States Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects Urbanization Trends » Urbanization in the 87% US is increasing 81% 64% 36% 19% 13% Urban Rural 1950 2014 2050 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects What is Urbanization? » The migration from rural areas to urban areas » Absolute growth in the urban area (urban growth) » Urban growth that is faster than rural growth Source: US Census Bureau What is an Urban Area? » The US Census Bureau identifies two types of urban areas 1. Urban Cluster: Densely settled territory with 2,500-50,000 inhabitants 2. Urbanized Area: Densely settled territory with 50,000 inhabitants or more Source: US Census Bureau Source: Herald Sun | Melbourne, Australia Are we thinking about this all wrong ?? » “We think urban planning ..focuses on making dense cities denser, where the minority of the worlds population wants to live” – Alan Berger MIT » “only one in eight urban dwellers worldwide live in dense mega cities” – United Nations report » “we're looking and focusing on cities….take all the cities in the world, you could fill up India. My question is, what about the rest ? – Pierre Belanger – Harvard Graduate School of Design Produced by data-viz blogger Max Galka, this map was generated using statistics compiled by a NASA research unit. Where Most of Humanity Lives: Half lives in the black space and the other half in the yellow The Emerging Megaregions Urbanized Areas & Urban Clusters Source: US Census Bureau – 2010 Census Urban Area Delineation Program Ten Most Populous Urbanized Areas Source: US Census Bureau – 2010 Census Urban Area Delineation Program The Five States with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2014 to July 1, 2015 Texas 490,036 Florida 365,703 California 352,527 Georgia 117,728 Washington 107,185 Source: US Census Bureau – News Release , Number: CB16-43 | December 22, 2015 TEXAS TRENDS |POPULATION|URBANIZATION| Texas in 2010 » Houston » DFW » San Antonio » Austin Texas Population Projections by Year » Projections indicate the 50 population in Texas will 40.50 reach 40.5 Million by 2050 40 28.80 30 2020 2030 2040 20 2050 POPULATION IN MILLIONS POPULATION 10 0 Texas Source: US Census Bureau – Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050 Projected Percent Change from 2010 » 61% increase in 61.07 population from 2010 to 2050 45.36 29.96 PERCENT CHANGE PERCENT (%) 14.59 2010-2020 2010-2030 2010-2040 2010-2050 Source: US Census Bureau – Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050 Four Texas Metro Areas Collectively Add More than 400,000 People in the Last Year – Census Bureau Reports Source: US Census Bureau – Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050 Projected Geographic Distribution of the Population Percent population change in Texas counties, 2010 to 2050 0.5 migration scenario » Growth in the majority of Texas counties » Especially in suburban counties that surround large urban centers AND counties along the southern border Source: US Census Bureau – Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050 The New Suburbia » Flexible densities » Mix of uses. Live, work, play. » Self Contained » Connections to Center City » Affordable Formation of Megalopolises » As urbanized areas expand and urban clusters increase, they begin to merge with each other to create a megalopolis Megalopolises of the future Source: Future of Suburbia | MIT Center for Advanced Urbanism DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS |POPULATION|URBANIZATION| Demographic Changes » Older population » Young professionals » Empty nesters » Solopreneurs » Cultural diversity » Demand for modal choices New Millennial Mindset » Generation’s homebuyers are drawn to suburbs with aspects of city living » 35% of the homebuyers are millennials » Cost and proximity to work are factors » 17% of home purchases are located within an urban area or central city » National Association of Realtors found more than ½ of millennials buying houses are choosing the suburbs Source: Houston Chronicle | Tuesday March 29, 2016 Changes in Development Patterns » Re-densification » Livable centers » Mixed uses » Refocus on transit » Walkable, bikeable communities Denser Urban Environments » Lower auto ownership » Higher transit ridership » Mixed uses for live/ work/play environments » More multi-modal opportunities » Escapees from the city Denser Urban Environments Denser Sub-Urban Environments » Homebuyers move farther from city center amid rising home prices » In Austin, the median home sold in 2011 was 13.2 miles from the city center, and 14.8 miles in 2015 » In Houston, the median home sold in 2015 was 20.6 miles from the urban core, increasing 5.6% since 2011 » National median price per square foot in 2015 was $284 in urban centers vs. $148 in non-urban centers Source: Austin Business Journal| Friday March 25, 2016 Different Work Environments » Satellite offices » Shared work spaces » Work form home » Community work spaces » Virtual offices (collaboration spaces) Different Retail Experiences » Big – Boxalypse » Corner stores and support retail » Show rooms » On line shopping » Front door delivery So How Do We Respond ? » Take advantage of technology and implement TDM and TSM techniques across all modes » Emphasize Shared Use Facilities (roads, sidewalks, parking) » Take advantage of transit development and become more multi-modal in approach to solutions » Recognize needs of different users and respond appropriately in providing transportation solutions So the theory is… » Urbanization will continue with a mix of users in the center cities and highly urbanized areas including boomers, genX and Y’ers as well as millennials. » The phenomena of escapees and soltrepenures will continue as the population ages. » Suburbanization will continue – but it must take on a new form – not just the typical bedroom community. » As suburban centers become more self contained the city center and traditional core will have less importance, except for major cultural activities and sporting events. » Transportation as we know it will change. Less need to connect to city center. More needs internally for the new suburbia. New interconnections with multi node cities as well as between cities. » The Megalopolis will be our future. We must change our thinking about transportation out to the new horizon years of 2050 and beyond. QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION Community Evolution » Early circulation concepts – Historical circulation systems – American circulation systems » Community pattern – Early forms – Mass transportation – Automotive transportation – Community shape – Future patterns Community Evolution (cont’d.) » Growth trends – Population trends – Employment distribution – Travel trends Estimated Vehicle Miles Driven on All Roads Estimated Vehicle Miles Driven and Gasoline Prices Human Mobility » People and goods » Auto » Truck » Rail » Air.
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