DOCSLIB.ORG

Agricultural Development Under a Changing Climate: Opportunities and Challenges for Adaptation

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Agricultural Development Under a Changing Climate: Opportunities and Challenges for Adaptation JOINT DISCUSSION PaPER AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT & ENVIRONMENT DEPartMENTS AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT UNDER A CHANGING CLIMatE: Opportunities and Challenges for Adaptation JON PADGHAM AUGust 2009 — ISSUE 1 Joint Departmental Discussion Paper- Issue 1 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT & ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENTS AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT UNDER A CHANGING CLIMATE: Opportunities and Challenges for Adaptation Jon Padgham clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd i 9/14/09 5:26:53 PM © 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet www.worldbank.org/rural E-mail [email protected] All rights reserved. This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily refl ect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, http://www.copyright.com/. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Offi ce of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mail [email protected]. Cover photo: Arne Hoel clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd ii 9/14/09 5:26:57 PM TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES . vi LIST OF TABLES . vii LIST OF BOXES . ix LIST OF ACRONYMS . x PREFACE . xiii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . xiv SUMMARY FOR DEVELOPMENT PRACTITIONERS . xv CHAPTER 1 Introduction . 1 I. Climate Variability, Climate Change, and Extreme Events . 2 II. Effects of Temperature Rise . 3 III. Effects of Crop Water Stress . 4 IV. Effects of Secondary Climate Change Impacts . 5 V. Regions Vulnerable to Climate Change . 5 Conclusions . 6 CHAPTER 2 Regional Impacts . 7 I. Sub-Saharan Africa . 7 II. Middle East and North Africa . 9 III. Europe and Central Asia . .10 IV. South Asia . 12 V. East Asia and Pacifi c. 13 VI. Latin America and the Caribbean . 15 Conclusions . 18 CHAPTER 3 Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Development. 21 I. Vulnerability . 21 II. Adaptation . 26 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT | ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd iii 9/15/09 7:51:25 PM iv CONTENTS III. Rural Development Policies and Adaptation . 34 Conclusions . 41 CHAPTER 4 Climate Information . 43 I. Understanding and Managing Uncertainty . 43 II. Using Climate Information for Adaptation and Development in Agriculture . 50 Conclusions . 62 CHAPTER 5 Water . 65 I. Climate Change and Agricultural Water Management Planning . 65 II. Rainfed Agriculture and Adaptation . 66 III. Irrigated Agriculture and Adaptation . 74 IV. Adapting Agriculture in Flood-Prone Areas. 90 Conclusions . 92 CHAPTER 6 Sustainable Land Management, Adaptation, and Mitigation . 93 I. Opportunities for Linking Adaptation and Mitigation. 93 II. Agricultural Land Management . 99 III. Market-Based Approaches to Promote Adaptation in Agriculture . 105 IV. Livestock Management in a Warming World . 111 Conclusions . 116 CHAPTER 7 Crop Genetic Diversity and Seed Systems . 117 I. Advances in Plant Breeding . 117 II. Conservation of Agricultural Genetic Diversity for Adaptation . 119 III. Seed Systems and Adaptation . 127 Conclusions . 131 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT | ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd iv 9/15/09 7:51:25 PM CONTENTS v CHAPTER 8 Pests and Climate Change . 133 I. Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Pests . 133 II. Adaptation Options for Managing Pests . 137 III. Food Safety and Climate Change . 141 Conclusions . 144 CHAPTER 9 Economic Diversifi cation Peri-Urban and Urban Agriculture . 145 I. Agricultural Microenterprises . 145 II. High-Value Enterprises . 146 III. Urban and Peri-Urban Agriculture . 147 Conclusions . 149 REFERENCES . 151 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT | ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd v 9/14/09 5:26:57 PM LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1.1 Projected impacts of climate change by 2030 for fi ve major crops in each region . 6 FIGURE 2.1 Coeffi cient of variability for precipitation in a typical 12-month annual cycle 8 FIGURE 2.2 Potential inundation of rice-producing areas from sea-level rise . 16 FIGURE 3.1 National and local adaptation measures from Uganda . 26 FIGURE 3.2 Food balance model describing three scenarios for changes in undernourishment in eastern and southern Africa . 33 FIGURE 3.3 Relationship among property rights, collective action, and land management . 37 FIGURE 4.1 Identifi ed priority weaknesses/gaps in the climate information system of the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) . 57 FIGURE 5.1 Typical partitioning of rainfall for a rainfed crop in a warm semi-arid environment . 69 FIGURE 5.2 Relationship between water productivity and cereal yields . 69 FIGURE 5.3 Water withdrawal in relation to water availability. 74 FIGURE 5.4 Partial factor productivity for nitrogen (PFPN), expressed as a unit of crop yield per unit of nitrogen input . 84 FIGURE 6.1 Estimated historical and projected N2O and CH4 emissions in the agricultural sector during the period 1990–2020 . 95 FIGURE 6.2 Estimated changes in total annual precipitation (in millimeters) in 2025 due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations (left) and from ongoing land degradation (right) . 96 FIGURE 6.3 “More people, more trees”; aerial photographs of the same landscape in the Tahoua district, Niger, 1975 and 2003 . 103 FIGURE 7.1 Effect of climate change on species richness of CWR of (top) groundnut (Arachnis sp.); (middle) cowpea (Vigna sp.); and (bottom) potato (Solanum sp.) . 121 FIGURE 8.1 Effect of the root-knot nematode (Meloidogyne incognita) on root system development of common bean . 137 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT | ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd vi 9/14/09 5:26:57 PM LIST OF TABLES TABLE 2.1 Recent extreme climate events and their impacts on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa . 8 TABLE 2.2 Projected temperature increase relative to a 1990 baseline under an A1B scenario according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report . 18 TABLE 2.3 Projected mean precipitation trends for 2080–2100 by season under an A1B scenario, according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report . 18 TABLE 3.1 Climatic and nonclimatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change across varying vulnerability levels . 23 TABLE 3.2 Comparison of hazards- and vulnerability-based approaches for assessing vulnerability and adaptation to climate change . 24 TABLE 3.3A Agriculture-based countries . 29 TABLE 3.3B Transforming countries . 30 TABLE 3.3C Urbanized countries . 31 TABLE 4.1 Description of methods for generating climate scenarios for use in adaptation planning at decadal time scales. 45 TABLE 4.2 Description of widely used model types . 52 TABLE 4.3 Considerations for policy and institutional capacity building to improve the generation and dissemination of seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture . 61 TABLE 5.1 Change in water productivity by major crop type from adoption of sustainable agriculture technologies and practices n ϭ number of projects surveyed. 70 TABLE 5.2 Challenges, actions, and capacity needs for enhancing the sustainability of saline irrigation sources for agriculture . 87 TABLE 6.1 Proposed measures for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural ecosystems, their apparent effects on reducing emissions of individual gases where adopted (mitigative effect), and an estimate of scientifi c confi dence that the proposed practice can reduce overall net emissions at the site of adoption. 98 TABLE 6.2 Nutrition and management technologies for livestock . 115 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT | ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd vii 9/14/09 5:26:57 PM viii LIST OF TABLES TABLE 7.1 Center of origin of globally important crops . 123 TABLE 7.2 Partial survey of landrace diversity and its value for crop improvement programs and local coping strategies . 124 TABLE 8.1 Observed or modeled effects of climate variability and change on pest damage . 135 TABLE 8.2 Afl atoxin concentration in food crops and products from West Africa . 142 TABLE 9.1 Challenges,.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Keeping Global Warming Within 1.5°C Constrains Emergence of Aridification
    ` Keeping global warming within 1.5°C constrains emergence of aridification Chang-Eui Park1, Su-Jong Jeong1*, Manoj Joshi2, Timothy J. Osborn2, Chang-Hoi Ho3, Shilong Piao4,5,6, Deliang Chen7, Junguo Liu1, Hong Yang8,9, Hoonyoung Park3, Baek-Min Kim10, Song Feng11 1School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, China 2Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK 3School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea 4Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China 5Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China 6Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China 7Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden 8EAWAG, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland 9Faculty of Sciences, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland 10Korea Polar Research Institution, Inchon, Korea 11Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, 72701, AR, USA Nature Climate Change (Accepted) *Corresponding author: Prof. Su-Jong Jeong, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South University of Science and Technology of China, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, China ([email protected]) ` Aridity – the ratio of atmospheric water supply (precipitation; P) to demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) – is projected to decrease (i.e., become drier) as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, aggravating land degradation and desertification1-6. However, the timing of significant aridification relative to natural variability – defined here as the time of emergence for aridification (ToEA) – is unknown, despite its importance in designing and implementing mitigation policy7-10.
    [Show full text]
  • Perspectives of Land Evaluation of Floodplains Under Conditions of Aridification Based on the Assessment of Ecosystem Services
    DOI: 10.15201/hungeobull.69.3.1Lóczy, D. et al. HungarianHungarian Geographical Geographical Bulletin Bulletin 69 (2020) 69 2020 (3) 227–243. (3) 227–243.227 Perspectives of land evaluation of floodplains under conditions of aridification based on the assessment of ecosystem services Dénes LÓCZY1, Gergely TÓTH2, Tamás HERMANN2, Marietta REZSEK3, Gábor NAGY1, József DEZSŐ1, Ali SALEM3,4, Péter GYENIZSE1, Anne GOBIN5 and Andrea VACCA6 Abstract Global climate change has discernible impacts on the quality of the landscapes of Hungary. Only a dynamic and spatially differentiated land evaluation methodology can properly reflect these changes. The provision level, rate of transformation and spatial distribution of ecosystem services (ESs) are fundamental properties of landscapes and have to be integral parts of an up-to-date land evaluation. For agricultural land capability assessment soil fertility is a major supporting ES, directly associated with climate change through greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration as regulationg services. Since for Hungary aridification is the most severe consequence of climate change, water-related ESs, such as water retention and storage on and below the surface as well as control of floods, water pollution and soil erosion, are of increasing importance. The productivity of agricultural crops is enhanced by more atmospheric CO2 but restricted by higher drought susceptibility. The value of floodplain landscapes, i.e. their agroecological, nature conservation, tourism (aesthetic) and other potentials, however, will be increasingly controlled by their water supply, which is characterized by hydrometeorological parameters. Case studies are presented for the estimation of the value of two water-related regulating ESs (water retention and groundwater recharge capacities) in the floodplains of the Kapos and Drava rivers, Southwest Hungary.
    [Show full text]
  • Drought and Desertification in Iran
    hydrology Article Drought and Desertification in Iran Iraj Emadodin *, Thorsten Reinsch and Friedhelm Taube Institute for Crop Science and Plant Breeding, Group of Grass and Forage Science/Organic Agriculture, Hermann-Rodewald-Straße 9, 24118 Kiel, Germany * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +49-431-880-1516 Received: 1 April 2019; Accepted: 5 August 2019; Published: 7 August 2019 Abstract: Iran has different climatic and geographical zones (mountainous and desert areas), mostly arid and semi-arid, which are suffering from land degradation. Desertification as a land degradation process in Iran is created by natural and anthropogenic driving forces. Meteorological drought is a major natural driving force of desertification and occurs due to the extended periods of low precipitation. Scarcity of water, as well as the excessive use of water resources, mainly for agriculture, creates negative water balances and changes in plant cover, and accelerates desertification. Despite various political measures having been taken in the past, desertification is still a serious environmental problem in many regions in Iran. In this study, drought and aridity indices derived from long-term temperature and precipitation data were used in order to show long-term drought occurrence in different climatic zones in Iran. The results indicated the occurrence of severe and extremely severe meteorological droughts in recent decades in the areas studied. Moreover, the De Martonne Aridity Index (IDM) and precipitation variability index (PVI) showed an ongoing negative trend on the basis of long-term data and the conducted regression analysis. Rapid population growth, soil salinization, and poor water resource management are also considered as the main anthropogenic drivers.
    [Show full text]
  • Afforestation for Restoration of Land and Climate Change Mitigation
    Chapter 2 Afforestation for Restoration of Land and Climate Change Mitigation Authors Imre Berki András Bidló Áron Drüszler Attila Eredics Borbála Gálos Csaba Mátyás Norbert Móricz Ervin Rasztovits University of West Hungary Bajcsy-Zs, 4, H-9400 Sopron, Hungary University of West Hungary, Sopron, Hungary Chapter 2.1 Reforestation under climate change in temperate, water limited regions: current views and challenges Csaba Mátyás ABSTRACT reduce groundwater table level due to higher water use with consequences for water management. The forest/grassland transition zone is especially vulnerable to projected drastic temperature and precipitation shifts in the future. In spite of regional climate conditions is restricted. Ecologically conscious forest policy and management requires the consideration of local conditions, of projections of future climatic conditions and also of non-forest alternatives of land use. The chapter investigates some of the relevant aspects of the ecological role of forests at the dryland edges on the example of three countries/regions on three continents. 55 Chapter 2 1 INTRODUCTION In the drought-threatened regions of the Eurasian and North American forest steppe1 2 has been long considered as crucial in rehabilitating of degraded, over-exploited climatic conditions. resources are presently debated. Due to the limited understanding of interactions between physical processes and land cover, the dispute is still unresolved (Ellison et al. 2011), although the opinion prevails that in the forest steppe zone, water consumption not achieve the goals of environmental protection (Jackson et al., 2005; Sun et al., 2006; Andréassian, 2004; Brown et al., 2005; Wang, Y. et al., 2008). Projected changes in global climate pose a further challenge on dryland ecosystems, as relatively small changes in the moisture balance may lead to considerable ecological shifts.
    [Show full text]
  • Scientific Conceptual Framework for Land Degradation Neutrality
    SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR LAND DEGRADATION NEUTRALITY A Report of the Science-Policy Interface The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers and boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not this have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by the UNCCD in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the UNCCD. SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR LAND DEGRADATION NEUTRALITY A Report of the Science-Policy Interface How to cite this document: Orr, B.J., A.L. Cowie, V.M. Castillo Sanchez, P. Chasek, N.D. Crossman, A. Erlewein, G. Louwagie, M. Maron, G.I. Metternicht, S. Minelli, A.E. Tengberg, S. Walter, and S. Welton. 2017. Scientific Conceptual Framework for Land Degradation Neutrality. A Report of the Science-Policy Interface. United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), Bonn, Germany. Published in 2017 by United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), Bonn, Germany © 2017 UNCCD. All rights reserved. UNCCD-SPI Technical Series No.01 ISBN 978-92-95110-60-1
    [Show full text]
  • 5. Impacts on Plant Biodiversity
    IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE IN SPAIN 5. IMPACTS ON PLANT BIODIVERSITY Federico Fernández-González, Javier Loidi and Juan Carlos Moreno Contributing authors M. del Arco, A. Fernández Cancio, X. Font, C. Galán, H. García Mozo, R. Gavilán, A. Penas, R. Pérez Badia, S. del Río, S. Rivas-Martínez, S. Sardinero, L. Villar Reviewers F. Alcaraz, E. Bermejo, J. Izco, J. Jiménez García-Herrera, J. Martín Herrero, J. Molero, C. Morillo, J. Muñoz, M. T. Tellería C. Blasi 179 PLANT BIODIVERSITY 180 IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE IN SPAIN ABSTRACT The direct impacts of climate change on plant biodiversity will occur through two antagonistic effects: warming, which lengthens the period of activity and increases plant productivity, and the reduction in water availability. The projections of the model Promes indicate the first will prevail in the north of the Iberian Peninsula and in the mountains, while the second will affect mainly to the southern half of Spain. Hence, the “mediterraneisation” of the North of the Peninsula and the “aridification” in the South are the most significant tendencies for the next century. The more severe scenario involves a climatic displacement of almost a whole bioclimatic belt, particularly in the South, whereas in the more moderate scenario the change is equivalent to half of the altitudinal interval of a belt. Such displacements exceed the migration thresholds of most species. The biggest indirect impacts are those deriving from edaphic changes, changes in the fire regime and the rise in sea level. Interactions with other components of global change (land use changes, modification in atmospheric composition) constitute another important potential source of impacts for which evidence is now beginning to accumulate.
    [Show full text]
  • TERC Submission Environmental Protection Services NT
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The contents of this submission seek to define the potential of accounting for and investing in natural capital to produce income, improve environmental outcomes and improve landscape resilience. We address this with reference to natural capital, carbon and water and broadly address the methodologies to repair landscapes, thereby facilitating the potential to receive income from the carbon and natural capital markets. We note general landscape degradation over widespread areas of the NT. Mechanisms causing the degradation vary however eroded, dehydrated, less diverse and less productive landscapes are the all too common result. Nature based solutions are a logical investment. They are typically cost effective and offer benefits potentially worth billions of dollars a year to the NT through increased income, environmental resilience and human health outcomes. We use examples that have synergies with various other submissions and plans but emphasize a thought and decision making process with solutions focused on assessing and using multiple potentials in any given situation rather than advocating a specific plan. Investment can be considerable and some returns slow to be realised, but they then tend to grow exponentially to capacity. What gets financed gets done. We suggest any stimulus funding should be connected to long term environmental outcomes as there is an imperative to make decisions and investments that help shift us to a resilient sustainable approach to future economic growth and development. Defining or agreeing methodologies to account for impact of actions taken and finance mechanisms are the primary blocks to the market. These issues can be overcome, indeed much has already been done and this space dynamic.
    [Show full text]
  • Reforestation and Surface Cooling in Temperate Zones: Mechanisms and Implications
    Received: 1 October 2019 | Accepted: 15 February 2020 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15069 PRIMARY RESEARCH ARTICLE Reforestation and surface cooling in temperate zones: Mechanisms and implications Quan Zhang1,2 | Mallory Barnes2 | Michael Benson2 | Elizabeth Burakowski3 | A. Christopher Oishi4 | Andrew Ouimette3 | Rebecca Sanders-DeMott3 | Paul C. Stoy5,6 | Matt Wenzel7 | Lihua Xiong1 | Koong Yi8 | Kimberly A. Novick2 1State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China 2O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA 3Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, USA 4Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Otto, NC, USA 5Department of Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA 6Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA 7National Ecological Observatory Network, Battelle, Jamestown, ND, USA 8Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA Correspondence Quan Zhang, State Key Laboratory of Water Abstract Resources and Hydropower Engineering Land-use/cover change (LUCC) is an important driver of environmental change, Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China. Email: [email protected] occurring at the same time as, and often interacting with, global climate change. Reforestation and deforestation have been critical aspects of LUCC
    [Show full text]
  • A Seesaw in Mediterranean Precipitation During the Roman Period Linked to Millennial-Scale Changes in the North Atlantic
    Clim. Past, 8, 637–651, 2012 www.clim-past.net/8/637/2012/ Climate doi:10.5194/cp-8-637-2012 of the Past © Author(s) 2012. CC Attribution 3.0 License. A seesaw in Mediterranean precipitation during the Roman Period linked to millennial-scale changes in the North Atlantic B. J. Dermody1, H. J. de Boer1, M. F. P. Bierkens2, S. L. Weber3, M. J. Wassen1, and S. C. Dekker1 1Department of Environmental Sciences, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, The Netherlands 2Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, The Netherlands 3Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands Correspondence to: B. J. Dermody ([email protected]) Received: 17 June 2011 – Published in Clim. Past Discuss.: 14 July 2011 Revised: 20 February 2012 – Accepted: 28 February 2012 – Published: 29 March 2012 Abstract. We present a reconstruction of the change in cli- 1 Introduction matic humidity around the Mediterranean between 3000– 1000 yr BP. Using a range of proxy archives and model sim- How human civilisation will adapt to future climate change ulations we demonstrate that climate during this period was caused by natural and anthropogenic forcings is an issue of typified by a millennial-scale seesaw in climatic humid- extensive research and intense debate (IPCC, 2007). How- ity between Spain and Israel on one side and the Central ever, climate change is nothing new for human civilisation Mediterranean and Turkey on the other, similar to precipita- and much can be learned from understanding how past so- tion anomalies associated with the East Atlantic/West Russia cieties responded to changes in climate.
    [Show full text]
  • Desertification
    SPM3 Desertification Coordinating Lead Authors: Alisher Mirzabaev (Germany/Uzbekistan), Jianguo Wu (China) Lead Authors: Jason Evans (Australia), Felipe García-Oliva (Mexico), Ismail Abdel Galil Hussein (Egypt), Muhammad Mohsin Iqbal (Pakistan), Joyce Kimutai (Kenya), Tony Knowles (South Africa), Francisco Meza (Chile), Dalila Nedjraoui (Algeria), Fasil Tena (Ethiopia), Murat Türkeş (Turkey), Ranses José Vázquez (Cuba), Mark Weltz (The United States of America) Contributing Authors: Mansour Almazroui (Saudi Arabia), Hamda Aloui (Tunisia), Hesham El-Askary (Egypt), Abdul Rasul Awan (Pakistan), Céline Bellard (France), Arden Burrell (Australia), Stefan van der Esch (The Netherlands), Robyn Hetem (South Africa), Kathleen Hermans (Germany), Margot Hurlbert (Canada), Jagdish Krishnaswamy (India), Zaneta Kubik (Poland), German Kust (The Russian Federation), Eike Lüdeling (Germany), Johan Meijer (The Netherlands), Ali Mohammed (Egypt), Katerina Michaelides (Cyprus/United Kingdom), Lindsay Stringer (United Kingdom), Stefan Martin Strohmeier (Austria), Grace Villamor (The Philippines) Review Editors: Mariam Akhtar-Schuster (Germany), Fatima Driouech (Morocco), Mahesh Sankaran (India) Chapter Scientists: Chuck Chuan Ng (Malaysia), Helen Berga Paulos (Ethiopia) This chapter should be cited as: Mirzabaev, A., J. Wu, J. Evans, F. García-Oliva, I.A.G. Hussein, M.H. Iqbal, J. Kimutai, T. Knowles, F. Meza, D. Nedjraoui, F. Tena, M. Türkeş, R.J. Vázquez, M. Weltz, 2019: Desertification. In:Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, E. Calvo Buendia, V. Masson-Delmotte, H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, P. Zhai, R. Slade, S. Connors, R. van Diemen, M. Ferrat, E. Haughey, S. Luz, S.
    [Show full text]
  • Assessing the Record and Causes of Late Triassic Extinctions
    Earth-Science Reviews 65 (2004) 103–139 www.elsevier.com/locate/earscirev Assessing the record and causes of Late Triassic extinctions L.H. Tannera,*, S.G. Lucasb, M.G. Chapmanc a Departments of Geography and Geoscience, Bloomsburg University, Bloomsburg, PA 17815, USA b New Mexico Museum of Natural History, 1801 Mountain Rd. N.W., Albuquerque, NM 87104, USA c Astrogeology Team, U.S. Geological Survey, 2255 N. Gemini Rd., Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA Abstract Accelerated biotic turnover during the Late Triassic has led to the perception of an end-Triassic mass extinction event, now regarded as one of the ‘‘big five’’ extinctions. Close examination of the fossil record reveals that many groups thought to be affected severely by this event, such as ammonoids, bivalves and conodonts, instead were in decline throughout the Late Triassic, and that other groups were relatively unaffected or subject to only regional effects. Explanations for the biotic turnover have included both gradualistic and catastrophic mechanisms. Regression during the Rhaetian, with consequent habitat loss, is compatible with the disappearance of some marine faunal groups, but may be regional, not global in scale, and cannot explain apparent synchronous decline in the terrestrial realm. Gradual, widespread aridification of the Pangaean supercontinent could explain a decline in terrestrial diversity during the Late Triassic. Although evidence for an impact precisely at the boundary is lacking, the presence of impact structures with Late Triassic ages suggests the possibility of bolide impact-induced environmental degradation prior to the end-Triassic. Widespread eruptions of flood basalts of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) were synchronous with or slightly postdate the system boundary; emissions of CO2 and SO2 during these eruptions were substantial, but the contradictory evidence for the environmental effects of outgassing of these lavas remains to be resolved.
    [Show full text]
  • The Potential of Agroecology to Build Climate-Resilient Livelihoods and Food Systems
    THE POTENTIAL OF AGROECOLOGY TO BUILD CLIMATE-RESILIENT LIVELIHOODS AND FOOD SYSTEMS REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN Gaps and opportunities in the agriculture and land use sectors THE POTENTIAL OF AGROECOLOGY TO BUILD CLIMATE-RESILIENT LIVELIHOODS AND FOOD SYSTEMS Lead Authors: Fabio Leippert Biovision Maryline Darmaun Martial Bernoux Molefi Mpheshea Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations PUBLISHED BY THE FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS AND BIOVISION FOUNDATION FOR ECOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ROME, 2020 Required citation: Leippert, F., Darmaun, M., Bernoux, M. and Mpheshea, M. 2020. The potential of agroecology to build climate-resilient livelihoods and food systems. Rome. FAO and Biovision. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb0438en The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) or Biovision Foundation for Ecological Development concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO or Biovision in preference to others of a simi- lar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO or Biovisioin. ISBN 978-92-5-133109-5 © FAO, 2020 Some rights reserved.
    [Show full text]