JOINT DISCUSSION PaPER AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT & ENVIRONMENT DEPartMENTS AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT UNDER A CHANGING CLIMatE: Opportunities and Challenges for Adaptation JON PADGHAM AUGust 2009 — ISSUE 1 Joint Departmental Discussion Paper- Issue 1 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT & ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENTS AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT UNDER A CHANGING CLIMATE: Opportunities and Challenges for Adaptation Jon Padgham clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd i 9/14/09 5:26:53 PM © 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet www.worldbank.org/rural E-mail [email protected] All rights reserved. This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily refl ect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Offi ce of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mail [email protected]. Cover photo: Arne Hoel clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd ii 9/14/09 5:26:57 PM TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES . vi LIST OF TABLES . vii LIST OF BOXES . ix LIST OF ACRONYMS . x PREFACE . xiii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . xiv SUMMARY FOR DEVELOPMENT PRACTITIONERS . xv CHAPTER 1 Introduction . 1 I. Climate Variability, Climate Change, and Extreme Events . 2 II. Effects of Temperature Rise . 3 III. Effects of Crop Water Stress . 4 IV. Effects of Secondary Climate Change Impacts . 5 V. Regions Vulnerable to Climate Change . 5 Conclusions . 6 CHAPTER 2 Regional Impacts . 7 I. Sub-Saharan Africa . 7 II. Middle East and North Africa . 9 III. Europe and Central Asia . .10 IV. South Asia . 12 V. East Asia and Pacifi c. 13 VI. Latin America and the Caribbean . 15 Conclusions . 18 CHAPTER 3 Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Development. 21 I. Vulnerability . 21 II. Adaptation . 26 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT | ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd iii 9/15/09 7:51:25 PM iv CONTENTS III. Rural Development Policies and Adaptation . 34 Conclusions . 41 CHAPTER 4 Climate Information . 43 I. Understanding and Managing Uncertainty . 43 II. Using Climate Information for Adaptation and Development in Agriculture . 50 Conclusions . 62 CHAPTER 5 Water . 65 I. Climate Change and Agricultural Water Management Planning . 65 II. Rainfed Agriculture and Adaptation . 66 III. Irrigated Agriculture and Adaptation . 74 IV. Adapting Agriculture in Flood-Prone Areas. 90 Conclusions . 92 CHAPTER 6 Sustainable Land Management, Adaptation, and Mitigation . 93 I. Opportunities for Linking Adaptation and Mitigation. 93 II. Agricultural Land Management . 99 III. Market-Based Approaches to Promote Adaptation in Agriculture . 105 IV. Livestock Management in a Warming World . 111 Conclusions . 116 CHAPTER 7 Crop Genetic Diversity and Seed Systems . 117 I. Advances in Plant Breeding . 117 II. Conservation of Agricultural Genetic Diversity for Adaptation . 119 III. Seed Systems and Adaptation . 127 Conclusions . 131 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT | ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd iv 9/15/09 7:51:25 PM CONTENTS v CHAPTER 8 Pests and Climate Change . 133 I. Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Pests . 133 II. Adaptation Options for Managing Pests . 137 III. Food Safety and Climate Change . 141 Conclusions . 144 CHAPTER 9 Economic Diversifi cation Peri-Urban and Urban Agriculture . 145 I. Agricultural Microenterprises . 145 II. High-Value Enterprises . 146 III. Urban and Peri-Urban Agriculture . 147 Conclusions . 149 REFERENCES . 151 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT | ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd v 9/14/09 5:26:57 PM LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1.1 Projected impacts of climate change by 2030 for fi ve major crops in each region . 6 FIGURE 2.1 Coeffi cient of variability for precipitation in a typical 12-month annual cycle 8 FIGURE 2.2 Potential inundation of rice-producing areas from sea-level rise . 16 FIGURE 3.1 National and local adaptation measures from Uganda . 26 FIGURE 3.2 Food balance model describing three scenarios for changes in undernourishment in eastern and southern Africa . 33 FIGURE 3.3 Relationship among property rights, collective action, and land management . 37 FIGURE 4.1 Identifi ed priority weaknesses/gaps in the climate information system of the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) . 57 FIGURE 5.1 Typical partitioning of rainfall for a rainfed crop in a warm semi-arid environment . 69 FIGURE 5.2 Relationship between water productivity and cereal yields . 69 FIGURE 5.3 Water withdrawal in relation to water availability. 74 FIGURE 5.4 Partial factor productivity for nitrogen (PFPN), expressed as a unit of crop yield per unit of nitrogen input . 84 FIGURE 6.1 Estimated historical and projected N2O and CH4 emissions in the agricultural sector during the period 1990–2020 . 95 FIGURE 6.2 Estimated changes in total annual precipitation (in millimeters) in 2025 due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations (left) and from ongoing land degradation (right) . 96 FIGURE 6.3 “More people, more trees”; aerial photographs of the same landscape in the Tahoua district, Niger, 1975 and 2003 . 103 FIGURE 7.1 Effect of climate change on species richness of CWR of (top) groundnut (Arachnis sp.); (middle) cowpea (Vigna sp.); and (bottom) potato (Solanum sp.) . 121 FIGURE 8.1 Effect of the root-knot nematode (Meloidogyne incognita) on root system development of common bean . 137 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT | ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd vi 9/14/09 5:26:57 PM LIST OF TABLES TABLE 2.1 Recent extreme climate events and their impacts on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa . 8 TABLE 2.2 Projected temperature increase relative to a 1990 baseline under an A1B scenario according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report . 18 TABLE 2.3 Projected mean precipitation trends for 2080–2100 by season under an A1B scenario, according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report . 18 TABLE 3.1 Climatic and nonclimatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change across varying vulnerability levels . 23 TABLE 3.2 Comparison of hazards- and vulnerability-based approaches for assessing vulnerability and adaptation to climate change . 24 TABLE 3.3A Agriculture-based countries . 29 TABLE 3.3B Transforming countries . 30 TABLE 3.3C Urbanized countries . 31 TABLE 4.1 Description of methods for generating climate scenarios for use in adaptation planning at decadal time scales. 45 TABLE 4.2 Description of widely used model types . 52 TABLE 4.3 Considerations for policy and institutional capacity building to improve the generation and dissemination of seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture . 61 TABLE 5.1 Change in water productivity by major crop type from adoption of sustainable agriculture technologies and practices n ϭ number of projects surveyed. 70 TABLE 5.2 Challenges, actions, and capacity needs for enhancing the sustainability of saline irrigation sources for agriculture . 87 TABLE 6.1 Proposed measures for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural ecosystems, their apparent effects on reducing emissions of individual gases where adopted (mitigative effect), and an estimate of scientifi c confi dence that the proposed practice can reduce overall net emissions at the site of adoption. 98 TABLE 6.2 Nutrition and management technologies for livestock . 115 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT | ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT clim_00i-xxvi_fm.indd vii 9/14/09 5:26:57 PM viii LIST OF TABLES TABLE 7.1 Center of origin of globally important crops . 123 TABLE 7.2 Partial survey of landrace diversity and its value for crop improvement programs and local coping strategies . 124 TABLE 8.1 Observed or modeled effects of climate variability and change on pest damage . 135 TABLE 8.2 Afl atoxin concentration in food crops and products from West Africa . 142 TABLE 9.1 Challenges,.