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Social Structure and Homicide in Post-Soviet Russia

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Social Structure and Homicide in Post-Soviet Russia The author(s) shown below used Federal funds provided by the U.S. Department of Justice and prepared the following final report: Document Title: Social Structure and Homicide in Post-Soviet Russia Author(s): William A. Pridemore Document No.: 194062 Date Received: April 2002 Award Number: 1999-IJ-CX-0009 This report has not been published by the U.S. Department of Justice. To provide better customer service, NCJRS has made this Federally- funded grant final report available electronically in addition to traditional paper copies. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND HOMICIDE IN POST-SOVIET RUSSIA by PROPERTY OF National Criminal Justice Reference Service (NCJRS) Box 6000 William Alex Pridemore A Dissertation Submitted to the University at Albany, State University of New York in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy School of Criminal Justice LVVL' This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Social Structure and Homicide in Post-Soviet Russia William Alex Pridemore COPYRIGHT 2000 This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. .*_I‘I... - Abstract This study examines social structure and homicide in Russia. The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the shift toward rule of law and a free market economy in Russia have increased the availability and validity of demographic, economic, mortality, and crime data. In this study, these newly available data are employed in order to describe the temporal, demographic, and spatial variation of homicide rates among the 89 Russian regions. Further, structural models developed to fit patterns of homicide in the United States are estimated with these data in order to evaluate the cross-sectional effects of social structural characteristics on the variation of homicide rates within Russia and to discover if these results are similar to those found in comparable studies conducted in the United States. The results of the descriptive analyses display a steep decline in the homicide victimization rate in Russia in the mid-l980s, followed by a period during the late 1980s and early 1990s when the rate more than tripled. These analyses further reveal that both homicide victims and offenders in Russia tend to be much older than their American counterparts. Multivariate analyses show that (1) poverty and other elements of social disorganization, such as ethnic heterogeneity and single-parent households, are positively and significantly associated with the variation of homicide victimization rates, (2) levels of alcohol consumption are also positively related to homicide rates, and (3) the lower than average homicide rates in the Northern Caucasus regions and the higher than average rates in the regions east of the Ural mountains do not appear to be explained solely by their structural features. Finally, in spite of widely different cultures, histories, and contemporary experiences, a comparison of the Russian results with those from comparable studies in the United States yields similar patterns in the relationships between structural characteristics and homicide rates. This appears to indicate that social structure plays an important role in the variation of homicide rates within nations, despite any cultural and historical differences that might exist among them. jii This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. This dissertation is dedicated to the memory of my grandfather, Alex Perry, a carpenter who taught me that everything in life must be built on a solid foundation, and to my grandmother, Nellie Perry, who illustrated to me that even with a dependable foundation one must still exercise a healthy amount of stubbornness in order to get the job done. I am forever grateful for the example you set. iv This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. .. Table of contents ... Abstract .............................................................. 111 Dedication ............................................................ iv Tableofcontents ........................................................ v List oftables ........................................................... ix List of figures .......................................................... x List of boxes .......................................................... xii... Preface .............................................................. xi11 Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................... 1 Why the comparative approach? ...................................... 3 WhyRussia? .................................................... 7 Massive structural change .................................... 8 Expanded socioeconomic variation ............................. 13 Newly available data and research .............................. 16 Researchquestions ................................................ 18 Summaryandconclusions .......................................... 19 Chapter 2: Review of the theoretical and empirical literature ..................... 21 Culture ......................................................... 25 Theory ................................................... 25 Empirical findings .......................................... 27 Social structure and homicide ....................................... 28 Theories of straideconomic deprivation ......................... 29 Absolute deprivation .................................. 30 Relative deprivation ................................... 30 Empirical findings of straideconomic deprivation ................. 32 Absolute deprivation .................................. 32 “Types” of homicide ............................ 40 Time-series analysis ............................. 42 Consistency in findings .......................... 43 Relative deprivation ................................... 45 Social disorganization theory .................................. 53 Empirical findings of social disorganization ................ 59 Summary and conclusions .......................................... 67 Chapter 3: Data and methodology .......................................... 73 mia .............. ....................................... 74 Unit of analysis ........................................... -74 Dependent variable ......................................... 76 Independent variables ....................................... 82 This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Table of contents (continued) Poverty ............................................. 82 Unemployment ...................................... -85 Inequality ........................................... 85 Mobility ............................................ 88 Family disruption ..................................... 89 Heterogeneity ........................................ 90 Density ............................................. 92 Control variables ........................................... 93 Alcohol consumption .................................. 93 Males25-54 ......................................... 95 Missingdata ............................................... 96 Methodology .................................................... 98 Description of homicide patterns and trends ...................... 98 Demographic variation ................................. 99 Temporal patterns .................................... 99 Regional variation .................................... 99 Theoretical evaluation ...................................... 100 Ordinary Least Squares regression ....................... 100 The errors-in-variable model ........................... 101 Model sensitivity .................................... 104 Interpreting the regression coefficients ................... 105 Comparison of findings between Russia and the United States ....... 108 Summary and conclusions ......................................... 108 Chapter 4: Demographic. temporal. and spatial patterns of homicide rates ......... 110 Demographic variation ............................................ 111 Sex ..................................................... 111 Age ..................................................... 112 Ageandsex .............................................
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