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An Overview of Glaciers, Glacier Retreat, and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal, India and China

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An Overview of Glaciers, Glacier Retreat, and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal, India and China An Overview of Glaciers, Glacier Retreat, and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal, India and China WWF Nepal Program March, 2005 CORRECTION On page 29 of the following report WWF included the following statement: "In 1999, a report by the Working Group on Himalayan Glaciology (WGHG) of the International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) stated: `glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the livelihood[sic] of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high.'" This statement was used in good faith but it is now clear that this was erroneous and should be disregarded. The essence of this quote is also used on page 3 in the Executive summary where it states: The New Scientist magazine carried the article "Flooded Out - Retreating glaciers spell disaster for valley communities" in their 5 June 1999 issue. It quoted Professor Syed Hasnain, then Chairman of the International Commission for Snow and Ice's (ICSI) Working Group on Himalayan Glaciology, who said most of the glaciers in the Himalayan region "will vanish within 40 years as a result of global warming". This statement should also be disregarded as being unsound. WWF regret any confusion this may have caused. Coordinated by: Sandeep Chamling Rai Climate Change Officer WWF Nepal Program. Editorial support: Trishna Gurung Communications Officer AREAS and Tiger Programmes WWF International This overview report is the product of a regional level project “Himalayan Glaciers and River Project” initiated by WWF Nepal Program, WWF India and WWF China Program. This report was compiled by Joe Thomas K and Sandeep Chamling Rai based on the following country reports: Nepal ‘Nepalese Glaciers, Glacier Retreat and its Impact to the Broader Perspective of Nepal’ Dr. Arun. B. Shrestha, Hydrologist-Engineers, Snow and Glaciers Hydrology Unit, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM)/Ministry of Science and Technology, Kathmandu Nepal. India ‘Status review of possible Impacts of Climate Change on Himalayan Glaciers, Glaciers retreat and its subsequent impacts on fresh water regime’ Dr. Rajesh Kumar, HIGHICE-India Glacier Research group, SES, JNU, New Delhi China ‘An Overview of Glaciers, Retreating Glaciers, and Their Impact in the Tibetan Plateau’ Yongping Shen, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute (CAREERI), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Lanzhou 730000, China © WWF Nepal Program, 2005 ii FOREWORD Climate change is real and happening now. The planet is already experiencing its impacts on biodiversity, freshwater resources and local livelihoods. Using current climate change trends, by 2100, the average global temperature may rise by 1.4 – 5.80C according to the Third Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001). This is certain disaster for fragile ecosystems like glaciers. Seventy percent of the worlds freshwater is frozen in glaciers. Glacier melt buffers other ecosystems against climate variability. Very often it provides the only source of water for humans and biodiversity during dry seasons. Freshwater is already a limited resource for much of the planet, and in the next three decades, the population growth is likely to far exceed any potential increase in available water. The Himalayas have the largest concentration of glaciers outside the polar caps. With glacier coverage of 33,000 km2, the region is aptly called the “Water Tower of Asia” as it provides around 8.6 X 106 m3 of water annually (Dyurgerov and Maier, 1997). These Himalayan glaciers feed seven of Asia’s great rivers: the Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Huang Ho. It ensures a year round water supply to millions of people. Climate change has impacted the glacial ecosystem tremendously. Sixty-seven percent of glaciers are retreating at a startling rate in the Himalayas and the major causal factor has been identified as climate change (Ageta and Kadota, 1992; Yamada et al., 1996; Fushinmi, 2000). Glacial melt will affect freshwater flows with dramatic adverse effects on biodiversity, and people and livelihoods, with a possible long-term implication on regional food security. WWF sees the impacts of climate change on glaciers and its subsequent impact on freshwater as a major issue, not just in the national context but also at a regional, transboundary level. The WWF offices in Nepal, India and China are taking the initiative to develop a regional collaboration to tackle climate change impacts in the glacial ecosystem and address adaptation measures. This report is the outcome of a regional collaboration of the three countries, providing an overview of climate impacts on glaciers with a focus on key areas that needs future intervention. We hope this will highlight the issue of climate change and galvanize policy makers to take action to ensure a living planet for future generations. Dr Chandra Prasad Gurung Ravi Singh Jim Harkness Country Representative Secretary General and CEO Country Representative WWF Nepal Program WWF India WWF China Program iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This overview report is the product of a regional level project “Himalayan Glaciers and River Project” initiated by WWF Nepal Program, WWF India and WWF China Program to develop a regional collaboration and to formulate a coordination strategy to tackle the climate change impacts on glaciers and to address the mitigation and adaptation options. This report would not been possible without the contributions from many people. I would like to specially thank Dr. Arun Shrestha, Hydrologist-Engineer, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM)/Ministry of Science and Technology, His Majesty Government of Nepal (HMG/N), Dr. Rajesh Kumar, HIGHICE-India Glacier Research Group, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi, India and Mr. Yonping Shen, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) China for their valuable contribution in writing the individual country status report. I am indebted to Ms. Jennifer Morgan, Director WWF Climate Change Programme, Dr. Lara Hansen, Chief Scientist, Climate Change Programme, Mr. Liam Salter, Co-ordinator, WWF Asia Pacific Climate and Energy Programme, Mr. Michael Case, Research Scientist Climate Change Programme, and Dr. Michael Prentice, Institute for the Study of Earth, Ocean and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, USA, for their technical support toward finalization of this report. I express my gratitude to Dr. Chandra Prasad Gurung, Country Representative and Mr. Anil Manandhar, Conservation Programme Director of WWF Nepal Programme for their entire support towards making this report. I would like to take this opportunity to thank Dr. Prakash Rao, Coordinator, and Mr. Samrat Sengupta, Sr Policy Officer from the Climate Change and Energy Programme at WWF India and Dr. Lin Gan, officer and Ms. Qiao Liming Programme associates from Energy and Climate Programme at WWF China Program for their coordination and support during the preparation of this report. My special thanks goes to Mr. Martin Hiller, Communication Manager, WWF International, Ms. Trishna Gurung, Communication Officer, AREAS and Tiger Program, WWF International, Ms Sangita Singh Shrestha, Communication Officer, WWF Nepal Program and Ms. Aarati Gurung from WWF Nepal Program for their valuable contribution in making this a successful report. I am extremely grateful to Mr. Pieter Stemerding, Manager International Projects, WWF Netherlands for providing us the financial support to carry out these meetings and for production of this report. Sandeep Chamling Rai Coordinator Himalayan Glacier and River Project WWF Nepal Program. iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Cross-section of Nepal’s topography 6 Figure 2: Precipitation in Nepal 8 Figure 3: Major drainage basins of Nepal 9 Figure 4: Spatial distribution of annual average maximum temperature trends in Nepal (1977-1994) 12 Figure 5: Comparison between trends in Kathmandu temperature 13 Figure 6: Time series of precipitation in Nepal 13 Figure 7: Changes in temperature and precipitation for SERES scenario B2 15 Figure 8: Map showing locations of different areas of glacier study. 16 Figure 9: Retreat of AX010 glacier 17 Figure 10: Longitudinal profile of Khumbu Glacier 18 Figure 11: a: Fluctuation of nine different points on the terminus of Yala Glacier b: Terminus retreat and surface lowering of Yala Glacier during different periods Figure12: Lirung Glacier in a. 1985 and b. 2002 20 Figure 13: Annual mean temperature trend in Kyangjing, Langtang station (3,900m) 20 Figure 14: Terminus position changes of Rika Samba Glacier 21 Figure 15: Discharge data of selected rivers (1996) 23 Figure 16: Dig Tsho GLOF 25 Figure 17: Imja Tsho in 2004 26 Figure 18: Tsho Rolpa 1950-1997 27 Figure 19: Glacier distribution along the Himalayan arc 29 Figure 20: Retreat of the Gangotri Glacier (Garhwal Himalayas) snout 33 Figure 21: The drainage map of Dokriani basin 34 Figure 22: Synoptic view of the Dokriani glacier 35 Figure 23: Drainage map of river bagirathi, Garhwal Himalayas 37 Figure 24: Distribution of glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau 40 Figure 25: Pamirs Knot 41 Figure 26: Glaciers and four peaks higher than 8,000 m in the Karakorum 42 Figure 27: Midui Glacier in southeast Tibet 45 Figure 28: The Puruogangri Ice Field in the Northern Tibetan Plateau 49 Figure 29: Boundaries of glaciers change in the A’nyêmaqên Mountains 54 v LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Discharge date of major rivers of Nepal 10 Table 2: Regional annual average maximum temperature trends (1977-1994) 12 Table 3: GCM estimates for temperature and precipitation changes in Nepal 15 Table 4: Lists of GLOF events recorded in Nepal 25 Table 5: A status of the glacier inventory of Indus Basin 31 Table 6: A status of the glacier inventory of Ganga-Brahmaputra basins 31 Table 7: Retreats of important glaciers in the Himalayas 32 Table 8: Glacier Resources in the Himalayas (after Dahe Qin et al. 1999) 44 Table 9: Recent variations in the Qilian Mountains (after Liu Chaohai et al. 1999) 47 Table 10: Glacier variations in the western Qilian Mountains (1956-1990) (Liu Shiyin et al.
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