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Service Contract in Support of the Impact Assessment of Various Policy Scenarios to Reduce

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Service Contract in Support of the Impact Assessment of Various Policy Scenarios to Reduce - 1 - Service Contract in Support of the Impact Assessment of Various Policy Scenarios to Reduce CO2 Emissions from Passenger Cars This report has been prepared by an external contractor and does not necessarily represent the European Commission's view. Contract: N° 070501/2004/392571/MAR/C1 Commissioned by: European Commission DG ENV Status: Final Report Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim Germany Mannheim, 16.10.2006 Authors: Dr. Sabine Jokisch Dr. Georg Bühler Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Prof. Dr. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer Kai Pietron B&D Forecast - 2 - - 3 - Content 1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................11 2 MODELS FOR IMPACT ANALYSIS...........................................................................................14 2.1 TREMOVE MODEL .................................................................................................................14 2.1.1 The transport demand module............................................................................................15 2.1.2 The vehicle stock module....................................................................................................16 2.1.3 The fuel consumption and emissions module......................................................................17 2.1.4 The welfare module ............................................................................................................17 2.1.5 Methodology for the Impact Assessment on transport sector .............................................18 2.1.6 Extension of the TREMOVE output to EU25......................................................................18 2.2 PACE-T...................................................................................................................................20 2.2.1 Model description...............................................................................................................20 2.2.2 Methodology for the Impact Assessment on society level...................................................24 2.2.3 Data input and calibration .................................................................................................25 2.3 B&D FORECAST MODEL...........................................................................................................27 2.3.1 Methodological overview ...................................................................................................27 2.3.2 Description of workflow of the B&D model / simulation....................................................29 2.3.3 Model description...............................................................................................................30 2.3.4 Input Parameters of the B&D Forcar Simulation ..............................................................33 3 BASELINE .......................................................................................................................................37 3.1 TREMOVE..............................................................................................................................37 3.1.1 Exogeneous transport baseline...........................................................................................37 3.1.2 Vehicle Stock ......................................................................................................................41 3.1.3 Road transport emissions and fuel consumption ................................................................44 3.2 PACE-T...................................................................................................................................51 3.3 FORCAR BASELINE ................................................................................................................56 3.3.1 Initial position of Baseline-scenario...................................................................................57 3.3.2 Conclusions of FORCAR-Baseline-scenario ......................................................................57 4 SCENARIO BUILDING .................................................................................................................66 4.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY FOR POLICY SCENARIO BUILDING .................................66 4.1.1 Building of the cost curve for passenger cars (M1)............................................................66 4.1.2 Assessing the costs and reduction potential of other measures ..........................................67 4.1.3 Defining Policy Scenarios ..................................................................................................67 4.2 TECHNICAL OPTIONS TO REDUCE FUEL CONSUMPTION FROM PASSENGER CARS .......................68 4.2.1 TREMOVE modelling.........................................................................................................70 4.2.2 Sensitivity analysis with respect to autonomous weight increase.......................................71 4.2.3 Alternative cost curve methodologies.................................................................................72 4.2.4 Cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative assumptions ......................................................73 4.3 INTEGRATED APPROACH MEASURES IDENTIFIED BY TASK A ...................................................74 4.3.1 Technical options to reduce fuel consumption from light-commercial vehicles.................74 4.3.2 Application of fuel efficient mobile air conditioning systems .............................................75 4.3.3 Options to reduce vehicle and engine resistance factors....................................................75 4.3.4 Options to promote application of biofuels ........................................................................77 - 4 - 4.3.5 Fuel efficient driving ..........................................................................................................77 4.3.6 Other measures...................................................................................................................78 4.3.7 TREMOVE Model runs and cost-effectiveness analysis.....................................................79 5 ANALYSIS OF THE SCENARIOS WITH TREMOVE .............................................................81 5.1 BUILDING THE POLICY OPTIONS ..............................................................................................81 5.2 ASSESSMENT OF THE SCENARIOS WITH TREMOVE ................................................................84 5.2.1 Transport demand...............................................................................................................84 5.2.2 Vehicle sales .......................................................................................................................84 5.2.3 Emissions............................................................................................................................85 5.2.4 Welfare ...............................................................................................................................86 5.3 ADDITIONAL TARGET BY 2015 .................................................................................................88 6 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND SECTORAL ANALYSIS ..............................................................89 6.1 DESCRIPTION AND ASSUMPTIONS OF THE SCENARIOS...............................................................89 6.1.1 Context................................................................................................................................89 6.1.2 General scenario setups .....................................................................................................90 6.2 MACRO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS .................................................................................................91 6.2.1 Scenario: 120g-low costs....................................................................................................92 6.2.2 Scenario: 120g-high costs ..................................................................................................99 6.2.3 Scenario: 130g-high costs ................................................................................................106 6.2.4 Comparison of the scenario results ..................................................................................113 6.3 SECTORAL ANALYSIS.............................................................................................................116 6.3.1 Determinations on the three simulated scenarios.............................................................116 6.3.2 Scenario: 120g-IEEP(2004) / 120g-low-cost-scenario ....................................................117 6.3.3 Scenario: 120g-TNO (2006d) / 120g-high-cost-sceanrio.................................................127 6.3.4 Scenario: 130g-TNO (2006d) / 130g-high-cost-scenario.................................................137 6.3.5 Summary of the three scenarios 120g-IEEP, 120g-TNO, 130g TNO ...............................147 6.3.6 Differentiation volume-manufacturer vs. premium-manufacturer....................................151 6.3.7 Summary and perspectives ...............................................................................................161 7 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................165 8 REFERENCES...............................................................................................................................169
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