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Service Contract in Support of the Impact Assessment of Various Policy Scenarios to Reduce
CO2 Emissions from Passenger Cars
This report has been prepared by an external contractor and does not
necessarily represent the European Commission's view.
Contract: N° 070501/2004/392571/MAR/C1 Commissioned by: European Commission DG ENV Status: Final Report
Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim Germany
Mannheim, 16.10.2006
Authors: Dr. Sabine Jokisch Dr. Georg Bühler Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)
Prof. Dr. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer Kai Pietron
B&D Forecast
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Content
1 INTRODUCTION...... 11
2 MODELS FOR IMPACT ANALYSIS...... 14
2.1 TREMOVE MODEL ...... 14 2.1.1 The transport demand module...... 15 2.1.2 The vehicle stock module...... 16 2.1.3 The fuel consumption and emissions module...... 17 2.1.4 The welfare module ...... 17 2.1.5 Methodology for the Impact Assessment on transport sector ...... 18 2.1.6 Extension of the TREMOVE output to EU25...... 18 2.2 PACE-T...... 20 2.2.1 Model description...... 20 2.2.2 Methodology for the Impact Assessment on society level...... 24 2.2.3 Data input and calibration ...... 25 2.3 B&D FORECAST MODEL...... 27 2.3.1 Methodological overview ...... 27 2.3.2 Description of workflow of the B&D model / simulation...... 29 2.3.3 Model description...... 30 2.3.4 Input Parameters of the B&D Forcar Simulation ...... 33
3 BASELINE ...... 37 3.1 TREMOVE...... 37 3.1.1 Exogeneous transport baseline...... 37 3.1.2 Vehicle Stock ...... 41 3.1.3 Road transport emissions and fuel consumption ...... 44 3.2 PACE-T...... 51 3.3 FORCAR BASELINE ...... 56 3.3.1 Initial position of Baseline-scenario...... 57 3.3.2 Conclusions of FORCAR-Baseline-scenario ...... 57
4 SCENARIO BUILDING ...... 66
4.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY FOR POLICY SCENARIO BUILDING ...... 66 4.1.1 Building of the cost curve for passenger cars (M1)...... 66 4.1.2 Assessing the costs and reduction potential of other measures ...... 67 4.1.3 Defining Policy Scenarios ...... 67 4.2 TECHNICAL OPTIONS TO REDUCE FUEL CONSUMPTION FROM PASSENGER CARS ...... 68 4.2.1 TREMOVE modelling...... 70 4.2.2 Sensitivity analysis with respect to autonomous weight increase...... 71 4.2.3 Alternative cost curve methodologies...... 72 4.2.4 Cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative assumptions ...... 73 4.3 INTEGRATED APPROACH MEASURES IDENTIFIED BY TASK A ...... 74 4.3.1 Technical options to reduce fuel consumption from light-commercial vehicles...... 74 4.3.2 Application of fuel efficient mobile air conditioning systems ...... 75 4.3.3 Options to reduce vehicle and engine resistance factors...... 75 4.3.4 Options to promote application of biofuels ...... 77
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4.3.5 Fuel efficient driving ...... 77 4.3.6 Other measures...... 78 4.3.7 TREMOVE Model runs and cost-effectiveness analysis...... 79
5 ANALYSIS OF THE SCENARIOS WITH TREMOVE ...... 81
5.1 BUILDING THE POLICY OPTIONS ...... 81 5.2 ASSESSMENT OF THE SCENARIOS WITH TREMOVE ...... 84 5.2.1 Transport demand...... 84 5.2.2 Vehicle sales ...... 84 5.2.3 Emissions...... 85 5.2.4 Welfare ...... 86 5.3 ADDITIONAL TARGET BY 2015 ...... 88
6 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND SECTORAL ANALYSIS ...... 89
6.1 DESCRIPTION AND ASSUMPTIONS OF THE SCENARIOS...... 89 6.1.1 Context...... 89 6.1.2 General scenario setups ...... 90 6.2 MACRO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ...... 91 6.2.1 Scenario: 120g-low costs...... 92 6.2.2 Scenario: 120g-high costs ...... 99 6.2.3 Scenario: 130g-high costs ...... 106 6.2.4 Comparison of the scenario results ...... 113 6.3 SECTORAL ANALYSIS...... 116 6.3.1 Determinations on the three simulated scenarios...... 116 6.3.2 Scenario: 120g-IEEP(2004) / 120g-low-cost-scenario ...... 117 6.3.3 Scenario: 120g-TNO (2006d) / 120g-high-cost-sceanrio...... 127 6.3.4 Scenario: 130g-TNO (2006d) / 130g-high-cost-scenario...... 137 6.3.5 Summary of the three scenarios 120g-IEEP, 120g-TNO, 130g TNO ...... 147 6.3.6 Differentiation volume-manufacturer vs. premium-manufacturer...... 151 6.3.7 Summary and perspectives ...... 161
7 CONCLUSIONS ...... 165
8 REFERENCES...... 169
9 ANNEX 1 – TREMOVE RUNS USED FOR MACRO-ECONOMIC AND SECTORAL ANALYSIS ...... 171
10 ANNEX 2 – DETAILED PACE-T MODELLING RESULTS...... 468
11 ANNEX 3 – DETAILED FORCAR MODELLING RESULTS ...... 482
12 ANNEX 4 – FINAL TREMOVE RUNS FOR COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS AND SCENARIO BUILDING ...... 498
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Figures
FIGURE 2.1: TREMOVE MODULAR STRUCTURE...... 15 FIGURE 2.2: SCHEDULE OF B&D ANALYSIS ...... 27 FIGURE 2.3: PLAYERS OF THE B&D ANALYSIS/SIMULATION...... 28 FIGURE 2.4: DESCRIPTION OF WORKFLOW ...... 29 FIGURE 2.5: BASIC PRINCIPLE – OVERVIEW...... 30 FIGURE 3.1: CRUDE OIL PRICES HYPOTHESIS...... 38 FIGURE 3.2: RELATIVE ANNUAL CAR MILEAGE AS A FUNCTION OF VEHICLE AGE (IN %) ...... 42 FIGURE 3.3: MOVEMENT OF CAR-MANUFACTURER TO EU10 STATES...... 58 FIGURE 3.4: COST PER EMPLOYEE AT CAR-MANUFACTURER EU25 VS. NON-EU ...... 61 FIGURE 3.5: COST PER EMPLOYEE AT SUPPLIER INDUSTRY EU25 VS. NON-EU...... 62 FIGURE 3.6: PRODUCTION OF CARS EU25 VS. NON-EU ...... 63 FIGURE 3.7: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES AT CAR-MANUFACTURER (BASELINE-SCENARIO) – EU25 VS. NON-EU ...... 63 FIGURE 3.8: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES AT SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY (BASELINE-SCENARIO) – EU25 VS. NON- EU...... 65 FIGURE 4.1: PERCENTAGE VARIATION IN VEHICLE PURCHASE COST FOR REACHING ALTERNATIVE TARGETS BY 2020 – TARGET-MEASURE COMBINATION: PERCENTAGE REDUCTION PER MANUFACTURER ...... 69 FIGURE 4.2: ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF A DIFFERENT “SAFETY MARGIN” IN DRAWING THE COST CURVES ON THE COSTS OF CO2 REDUCTIONS REQUIRED TO MEET THE 2008/9 AND 2012 TARGETS (EXAMPLE FOR MEDIUM PETROL VEHICLE) ...... 73 FIGURE 4.3: BUSINESS-AS-USUAL INTRODUCTION OF OPTIONS TO REDUCE VEHICLE AND ENGINE RESISTANCE FACTORS AS MARKET SHARE OF NEW CARS SOLD...... 76 FIGURE 5.1: COST EFFECTIVENESS OF INTEGRATED APPROACH MEASURES ...... 82 FIGURE 5.2: MARGINAL COST ANALYSIS INTEGRATED APPROACH ...... 82 FIGURE 6.1: PROCEDURE OF FORCAR-SIMULATION OEM...... 118 FIGURE 6.2: DEVELOPMENT OF JOBS IN EU25 – 120G-IEEP-LOW-COST-SCENARIO / SMALL-CAR-SEGMENT...... 122 FIGURE 6.3: DEVELOPMENT OF JOBS IN EU25 – 120G-IEEP-LOW-COST-SCENARIO / MEDIUM-CAR-SEGMENT...... 123 FIGURE 6.4: DEVELOPMENT OF JOBS IN EU25 – 120G-IEEP-LOW-COST-SCENARIO / LARGE-SEGMENT...... 124 FIGURE 6.5: PROCEDURE OF FORCAR-SIMULATION SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY...... 125 FIGURE 6.6: DEVELOPMENT OF JOBS IN EU25 – 120G-IEEP-LOW-COST-SCENARIO / SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY...... 127 FIGURE 6.7: PROCEDURE OF FORCAR-SIMULATION OEM...... 128 FIGURE 6.8: DEVELOPMENT OF JOBS EU25 – SCENARIO 120G-TNO-HIGH-COST-SCENARIO / SMALL-SEGMENT ...... 132 FIGURE 6.9: DEVELOPMENT OF JOBS EU25 – SCENARIO 120G-TNO-HIGH-COST-SCENARIO / MEDIUM-SEGMENT ...... 133 FIGURE 6.10: DEVELOPMENT OF JOBS EU25 – SCENARIO 120G-TNO-HIGH-COST-SCENARIO / LARGE-SEGMENT...... 134 FIGURE 6.11: PROCEDURE OF FORCAR-SIMULATION SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY...... 135 FIGURE 6.12: DEVELOPMENT OF JOBS IN EU25 – 120G-TNO-HIGH-COST-SCENARIO / SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY...... 137
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FIGURE 6.13: PROCEDURE OF FORCAR-SIMULATION OEM...... 139 FIGURE 6.14: DEVELOPMENT OF JOBS EU25 – SCENARIO 130G-TNO-HIGH-COST-SCENARIO / SMALL-SEGMENT ...... 142 FIGURE 6.15: DEVELOPMENT OF JOBS EU25 – SCENARIO 130G-TNO-HIGH-COST-SCENARIO / MEDIUM-SEGMENT ...... 143 FIGURE 6.16: DEVELOPMENT OF JOBS EU25 – SCENARIO 130G-TNO-HIGH-COST-SCENARIO / LARGE-SEGMENT...... 144 FIGURE 6.17: PROCEDURE OF FORCAR-SIMULATION SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY...... 145 FIGURE 6.18: DEVELOPMENT OF JOBS IN EU25 – 130G-TNO-HIGH-COST-SCENARIO / SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY...... 147 FIGURE 6.19: DEVELOPMENT OF EMPLOYMENT AT CAR-MANUFACTURER IN EU25 – CO2 (SCENARIOS VS. BASE-LINE) ...... 148 FIGURE 6.20: DEVELOPMENT OF EMPLOYMENT AT SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY IN EU25 – CO2 SCENARIOS VS. BASE-LINE...... 150 FIGURE 6.21: IMPACT ON DEALERSHIP – 120G-IEEP CO2 SCENARIO ...... 159
FIGURE 6.22: IMPACT ON DEALERSHIP – 120G-TNO CO2 SCENARIO...... 160
FIGURE 6.23: IMPACT ON DEALERSHIP – 130G-TNO CO2 SCENARIO...... 161
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Tables
TABLE 2.1: VEHICLE STOCK IN THE EU10 COUNTRIES IN 2000 (IN 1.000 CARS) ...... 19 TABLE 2.2: REGIONS IN PACE-T ...... 21 TABLE 2.3: SECTORAL DISAGGREGATION IN PACE-T ...... 21 TABLE 2.4: SALES VOLUME SPLIT BY SEGMENT...... 32 TABLE 2.5: SEGMENT SPLIT DIVIDED BY FUEL-TYPE...... 32 TABLE 2.6: RETAIL PRICE INCREASE BY SEGMENT...... 32 TABLE 2.7: TRANSPORTATION BY SEGMENT (IN KM)...... 32 TABLE 2.8: TURNOVER SUPPLIER INDUSTRY ...... 33 TABLE 2.9: SALES VOLUME DEALERSHIP...... 33 TABLE 2.10: ALLOCATION TO SEGMENTS ...... 34 TABLE 3.1: AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES OF GDP AND POPULATION: EU25 ...... 37 TABLE 3.2: BASELINE PASSENGER TRAVEL DEMAND (IN BILL. PKM PER YEAR) ...... 39 TABLE 3.3: BASELINE TRANSPORT DEMAND (ANNUAL GROWTH RATE)...... 40 TABLE 3.4: BASELINE PASSENGER TRAVEL DEMAND (IN BILL. VKM PER YEAR)...... 41 TABLE 3.5: NUMBER OF VEHICLES IN THE EU25 ...... 42 TABLE 3.6: NUMBER AND SHARE OF THE CAR TYPE...... 43 TABLE 3.7: AVERAGE MILEAGE (VKM/PASSENGER CAR) OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...... 44 TABLE 3.8: NEW DIESEL CARS TEST CYCLE FUEL EFFICIENCY ...... 45 TABLE 3.9: CAR MAKERS AGREEMENTS IMPLEMENTATION ASSUMPTIONS (EU15 AVERAGE)...... 45 TABLE 3.10: FUEL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS FOR NON CAR ROAD VEHICLES ...... 46 TABLE 3.11: EXTRA FUEL CONSUMPTION FOR CARS WITH AIR CONDITIONING (LITRE PER 100 VKM), TREMOVE BASELINE...... 47 TABLE 3.12: EMISSIONS OF CNG CARS COMPARED TO EMISSIONS OF GASOLINE EURO 4 CARS...... 48 TABLE 3.13: WELL-TO-TANK EMISSION FACTOR AND FUEL PATHWAY BY 2012 IN TREMOVE BASELINE ...... 49 TABLE 3.14: OVERVIEW OF VEHICLE STOCK, DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN TREMOVE BASELINE.50 TABLE 3.15 AUTOMOBILE INPUT DATA IN 2000 ...... 51 TABLE 3.16 ENERGY IMPORT PRICES (IN 2000$/BOE)...... 52 TABLE 3.17 BASELINE CAR PURCHASE PRICES (IN €)...... 52 TABLE 3.18 BASELINE AVERAGE ANNUAL FUEL COSTS AT CONSTANT PRICES (IN €) ...... 53 TABLE 3.19 BASELINE AVERAGE ANNUAL OTHER COSTS (IN €)...... 53 TABLE 3.20 BASELINE MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RELATIVE TO 2000 (INDEX=1,0000 IN 2000)55 TABLE 3.21: CAR-PRODUCTION IN EU25- AND NON-EU-STATES ...... 59 TABLE 3.22: PRODUCTION OF CARS EU25 – SPLIT EU15 VS. EU10...... 59 TABLE 3.23: ASSUMED SHARES OF CAR PRODUCTION VALUES TO SUPPLIER AND CARMAKER ...... 59 TABLE 3.24: COST-STRUCTURE OF AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIER...... 60 TABLE 3.25: COMPARISON OF LABOUR COSTS PER YEAR / CAR-MANUFACTURER INDUSTRY ...... 60 TABLE 3.26: COMPARISON OF LABOUR COSTS PER YEAR / SUPPLIER INDUSTRY ...... 61 TABLE 3.27: DEVELOPMENT OF PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYEES AT CAR-MANUFACTURER – EU25 VS. NON-EU ...... 64 TABLE 3.28: EMPLOYEES AT CAR-MANUFACTURER BY SEGMENT AND REGION...... 64 TABLE 4.1: PERCENTAGE VARIATION IN VEHICLE PURCHASE COST FOR REACHING AVERAGE 120G/KM BY 2012, DEPENDING OF TARGET-MEASURE COMBINATION ...... 68 TABLE 4.2: WELFARE IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE 2012 SCENARIOS AT M1 VEHICLE LEVEL – TASK A CORE HYPOTHESIS...... 70
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TABLE 4.3: GHG EMISSIONS (2010-2020) AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF ALTERNATIVE 2012 SCENARIOS AT M1 VEHICLE LEVEL – TASK A CORE HYPOTHESIS...... 71 TABLE 4.4: SOCIETAL COSTS, CO2 SAVINGS AND COST EFFECTIVENESS OF FOUR DIFFERENT REDUCTION SCENARIOS FOR PASSENGER CARS (CUMULATED OVER 2010-2020) UNDER 3 COST HYPOTHESIS ...... 74 TABLE 4.5: COST AND ABATEMENT HYPOTHESIS FOR N1 VEHICLES SCENARIOS ...... 75 TABLE 4.6: COST AND ABATEMENT HYPOTHESIS FOR MAC SCENARIOS ...... 75 TABLE 4.7: GHG EMISSIONS (2010-2020) AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF SELECTED INTEGRATED APPROACH INDIVIDUAL MEASURES ANALYSED WITH TREMOVE ...... 80 TABLE 5.1: IMPACT ON TRANSPORT DEMAND...... 84 TABLE 5.2: IMPACT OF THE POLICY SCENARIOS ON VEHICLE SALES...... 85 TABLE 5.3: IMPACT OF THE POLICY SCENARIOS ON GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSIONS ...... 86 TABLE 5.4: IMPACT OF THE POLICY SCENARIOS ON POLLUTANT EXHAUST EMISSIONS...... 86 TABLE 5.5: WELFARE ANALYSIS OF THE POLICY SCENARIOS...... 87 TABLE 5.6: COST EFFECTIVENESS OF GHG ABATEMENT 2010-2020 ...... 87 TABLE 5.7: SOCIETAL COSTS, CO2 SAVINGS AND COST EFFECTIVENESS OF TWO ADDITIONAL SCENARIOS INCLUDING ADDITIONAL 120G TARGET BY 2015...... 88 TABLE 6.1: ASSUMPTIONS ON FUEL CONSUMPTION AND CAR PURCHASE COSTS IN THE SCENARIOS .....90 TABLE 6.2 AVERAGE CAR PURCHASE COSTS IN SCENARIO 120G-LOW COSTS (IN €)...... 92 TABLE 6.3 AVERAGE ANNUAL FUEL COSTS IN SCENARIO 120G-LOW COSTS (IN €) ...... 93 TABLE 6.4 MACROECONOMIC SIMULATION RESULTS OF SCENARIO 120G-LOW COSTS RELATIVE TO BASELINE (IN %) ...... 95 TABLE 6.5 SECTORAL EFFECTS OF SCENARIO 120G-LOW COSTS RELATIVE TO BASELINE (IN %) ...... 98 TABLE 6.6 AVERAGE CAR PURCHASE COSTS IN SCENARIO 120G-HIGH COSTS (IN €) ...... 100 TABLE 6.7 AVERAGE ANNUAL FUEL COSTS IN SCENARIO 120G-HIGH COSTS (IN €)...... 101 TABLE 6.8 MACROECONOMIC SIMULATION RESULTS OF SCENARIO 120G-HIGH COSTS RELATIVE TO BASELINE (IN %) ...... 102 TABLE 6.9 SECTORAL EFFECTS OF SCENARIO 120G-HIGH COSTS RELATIVE TO BASELINE (IN %)...... 105 TABLE 6.10 AVERAGE CAR PURCHASE COSTS IN SCENARIO 130G-HIGH COSTS (IN €) ...... 107 TABLE 6.11 AVERAGE ANNUAL FUEL COSTS IN SCENARIO 130G-HIGH COSTS (IN €)...... 107 TABLE 6.12 MACROECONOMIC SIMULATION RESULTS OF SCENARIO 130G-HIGH COSTS RELATIVE TO BASELINE (IN %) ...... 109 TABLE 6.13 SECTORAL EFFECTS OF SCENARIO 130G-HIGH COSTS RELATIVE TO BASELINE (IN %)...... 112 TABLE 6.14 MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS IN 2020 COMPARED RELATIVE TO BASELINE (IN %) ...... 113 TABLE 6.15: BASIC SPLIT OF SEGMENT BY SIZE AND FUEL-TYPE (IN MILL. CARS)...... 117 TABLE 6.16: RETAIL PRICES BY SEGMENT IN THE 120G-IEEP/ LOW-COST- SCENARIO (IN €) ...... 119 TABLE 6.17: LABOUR COST ADVANTAGES IN THE 120G-IEEP/ LOW-COST-SCENARIO NON-EU VS. EU 25 PER CAR (IN €)...... 121 TABLE 6.18: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN AT CAR-MANUFACTURER SMALL-CAR-SEGMENT BASELINE- VS. 120G LOW-COST-SCENARIO...... 122 TABLE 6.19: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN AT CAR-MANUFACTURER MEDIUM-CAR-SEGMENT BASELINE- VS. 120G LOW-COST-SCENARIO...... 123 TABLE 6.20: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN AT CAR-MANUFACTURER LARGE-CAR-SEGMENT BASELINE- VS. 120G LOW-COST-SCENARIO...... 124 TABLE 6.21: LABOUR COST ADVANTAGES IN THE 120G-IEEP/ LOW-COST-SCENARIO NON-EU VS. EU 25 PER CAR (IN EURO)/ SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY ...... 126
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TABLE 6.22: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN THE SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY (BASELINE- VS. 120G LOW-COST- SCENARIO) ...... 127 TABLE 6.23: RETAIL PRICES BY SEGMENT IN THE 120G-TNO SCENARIO (IN €) ...... 129 TABLE 6.24: LABOUR COST ADVANTAGES IN THE 120G-TNO / HIGH-COST-SCENARIO NON-EU VS. EU 25 PER CAR (IN €)...... 131 TABLE 6.25: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN AT CAR-MANUFACTURER SMALL-CAR-SEGMENT (BASELINE- VS. 120G HIGH-COST-SCENARIO)...... 132 TABLE 6.26: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN AT CAR-MANUFACTURER MEDIUM-CAR-SEGMENT BASELINE- VS. 120G HIGH-COST-SCENARIO ...... 133 TABLE 6.27: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN AT CAR-MANUFACTURER LARGE-CAR-SEGMENT (BASELINE- VS. 120G HIGH-COST-SCENARIO)...... 134 TABLE 6.28: LABOUR COST ADVANTAGES IN THE 120G-TNO / HIGH-COST-SCENARIO NON-EU VS. EU 25 PER CAR (IN €) / SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY...... 136 TABLE 6.29: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN THE SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY (BASELINE- VS. 120G LOW-COST- SCENARIO) ...... 137 TABLE 6.30: RETAIL PRICES BY SEGMENT IN THE 130G-TNO SCENARIO...... 140 TABLE 6.31: LABOUR COST ADVANTAGES IN THE 130G-TNO / HIGH-COST-SCENARIO NON-EU VS. EU 25 PER CAR (IN €)...... 141 TABLE 6.32: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN AT CAR-MANUFACTURER SMALL-CAR-SEGMENT (BASELINE- VS. 130G HIGH-COST-SCENARIO)...... 142 TABLE 6.33: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN AT CAR-MANUFACTURER MEDIUM-CAR-SEGMENT BASELINE- VS. 130G HIGH-COST-SCENARIO ...... 143 TABLE 6.34: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN AT CAR-MANUFACTURER MEDIUM-CAR-SEGMENT (BASELINE- VS. 130G HIGH-COST-SCENARIO)...... 145 TABLE 6.35: LABOUR COST ADVANTAGES IN THE 130G-TNO / HIGH-COST-SCENARIO NON-EU VS. EU 25 PER CAR (IN €) / SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY...... 146 TABLE 6.36: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN THE SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY (BASELINE- VS. 130G HIGH-COST- SCENARIO) ...... 147 TABLE 6.37: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES AT CAR-MANUFACTURER IN EU25 (BASELINE- VS. CO2- SCENARIOS) ...... 149 TABLE 6.38: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES AT SUPPLIER-INDUSTRY IN EU25 (BASELINE- VS. CO2- SCENARIOS) ...... 150 TABLE 6.39: EXPORT RATE (OUTSIDE THE EU) OF A PREMIUM-MANUFACTURER ...... 151 TABLE 6.40: ABSOLUTE RETAIL PRICES EXCL. TAX (IN €)– ALL THREE SCENARIOS ...... 152 TABLE 6.41: PETROL- / DIESEL-SHARE BY SEGMENTS ...... 152 TABLE 6.42: EFFECTS ON DEALERSHIP – BEST CASE SCENARIO ...... 153 TABLE 6.43: 120G-IEEP: EFFECTS ON SALES MARGIN AND VOLUME – BEST CASE ...... 154 TABLE 6.44: 120G-TNO: EFFECTS ON SALES MARGIN AND VOLUME – BEST CASE ...... 154 TABLE 6.45: 130G-TNO: EFFECTS ON SALES MARGIN AND VOLUME – BEST CASE ...... 155 TABLE 6.46: EFFECTS ON DEALERSHIP – MEDIUM CASE SCENARIO...... 155 TABLE 6.47: 120G IEEP: EFFECTS ON SALES MARGIN AND VOLUME BY SCENARIO – MEDIUM CASE ....156 TABLE 6.48: 120G TNO: EFFECTS ON SALES MARGIN AND VOLUME BY SCENARIO – MEDIUM CASE ....156 TABLE 6.49: 130G TNO: EFFECTS ON SALES MARGIN AND VOLUME BY SCENARIO – MEDIUM CASE ....156 TABLE 6.50: EFFECTS ON DEALERSHIP – WORST CASE SCENARIO...... 157 TABLE 6.51: 120G IEEP: EFFECTS ON SALES MARGIN AND VOLUME BY SCENARIO – WORST CASE ...... 157 TABLE 6.52: 120G TNO: EFFECTS ON SALES MARGIN AND VOLUME BY SCENARIO – WORST CASE...... 158 TABLE 6.53: 130G TNO: EFFECTS ON SALES MARGIN AND VOLUME BY SCENARIO – WORST CASE...... 158
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1 Introduction
Within the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union has committed itself to a substantial reduction of 8% in overall CO2 emissions. Due to the expected tremendous increase of transport services – especially in road transport – by 50% in the period between 1990 and 2010 and due to the fact that 28% of the overall CO2 emissions in the EU is caused by the transport sector today, it will be difficult for the European Union to fulfil its commitment to reduce CO2 emissions without a considerable contribution of the transport sector.
In the “Community strategy to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars and to improve fuel economy” (COM(95) 689 final), the Community chooses the per- kilometre emissions of new passenger cars (120 g CO2/km by 2012) as one main strategic variable in reducing CO2 emission from passenger cars. Three "pillars" are defined that might contribute in various combinations to achieving this goal:
• Voluntary agreements with the automobile industry on fuel economy improvements. • Fuel-economy labelling of cars and • Fiscal measures.
With regard to the first pillar, the European, Japanese and Korean Automobile Manufacturers Associations (ACEA, JAMA and KAMA, respectively) entered into commitments to achieve new passenger car fleet average CO2 emissions of 140 g
CO2/km by 2008/2009 (measured according to Directive 93/110/EC). The European Parliament and Council Decision of 22 June 2000 establishing a scheme to monitor the average specific emissions of CO2 from new passenger cars (Decision 1753/2000) supplemented this step. It should be recalled that the targets of the Commitments must mainly be achieved by technological developments affecting different car characteristics and market changes linked to these developments. In addition to the three pillars of the strategy, several other options are feasible in support of them that could contribute to achieving CO2 emission reductions beyond the period of the current Commitments by ACEA, JAMA and KAMA. Overall, the aim of the Commission is to achieve the Community goal of 120 g CO2/km in a “sustainable way”, taking into account the three pillars of the Gothenburg Council (environmental, social, economic aspects). The Commission has decided that a joint evaluation shall be carried out, involving the Commission, the stakeholders, selected national experts and consultants in order to address the two key issues:
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A The costs and reduction potential of technologies and other measures to reduce CO2 emissions
B An extended impact assessment of policy scenarios to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars in the EU
In Task A (Service Contract undertaken by TNO, LAT and IEEP) a number of technical and non-technical measures is reviewed in terms of their potential contribution to
CO2 reduction in passenger cars and their costs. These measures have been identified by the European Commission and can be regarded as complementary options in the context of a so-called Integrated Approach, and include the following technical and non- technical measures: Technical measures
• technical options to reduce fuel consumption at the vehicle level
• application of fuel efficient air conditioning systems
• options to reduce vehicle and engine resistance factors
• options for application of alternative fuels based on fossil energy
• increased application of biofuels
• possibilities to include N1 vehicles into the Commitments Non-technical measures
• fuel efficient driving
• CO2 based taxation schemes for passenger cars
• options for improved energy or CO2 labelling
• public procurement proposals This report presents the findings of the Task B project “Service contract in support of the extended impact assessment of various policy scenarios to reduce to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars”. The objective of this service contract is to assess the economic, environmental and social aspects of different policy scenarios to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars - scenarios based on the measures analysed by Task A - covering all the sectors of the economy and the external trade dimension. The assessment covers the transport sector and in particular the automotive sector in the EU. The work support an Impact Assessment undertaken under the procedures of the Commission. The effects on the transport sector are quantified with the transport emission model TREMOVE, and the model runs have been carried out by the consultant in charge of the
- 13 - development of the TREMOVE model (K.U. Leuven / Transport and Mobility Leuven), and by the services of the Commission (DG Environment, Unit Energy and Environment). On the macroeconomic level, we use the dynamic general equilibrium model PACE-T to simulate the impacts of the relevant regulation measures on the macro-economy as well as the individual sectors and trade flows of the European countries. On the level of the individual automobile markets and sub-markets, B&D Forecast uses its market analysis and forecasting tool FORCAR to break down the results for the automobile market as a whole to the impacts on specific segments of the market, as well as on specific car producers and different groups of suppliers. The assessment of the several scenarios is done in comparison with a baseline scenario (TREMOVE 2.4) which has been defined by the European Commission and implemented into the models. Results are going to be presented for the EU25. A national investigation analysis is done in this report, when there are remarkable differences within the EU countries implemented in TREMOVE. To capture the differences between the EU15 and the EU10, which obviously are expected to exist, the results of the models are reported for both regions, too. The period to be analysed is 2000 to 2020 although the reduction target should be met in 2012. The annex of this report contains the time series data for each indicator and each country. This draft final report is structured as follows. In the second section of the report, the three models TREMOVE, PACE-T and FORECAST are explained. The third section presents the Baseline for the analysis. The forth chapter describes the way policy scenarios to be modelled with TREMOVE are build on the individual measures analysed by Task A. The fifth chapter describes the result of the TREMOVE runs. The sixth chapter describes the results of the analysis of the macro-economic and Sectoral impact of a simplified sub-set of three scenarios which are all build on technical measures to reduce CO2 emission from passenger cars. Finally the seventh chapter summarizes the impacts of the scenarios and recalls the caveats of the modelling undertaken, in order to provide insights to the Impact Assessment report.
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2 Models for impact analysis
2.1 TREMOVE model
TREMOVE is a policy assessment model to study the effects of different transport and environmental policies on the emissions of the transport sector. The model estimates transport demand, modal shifts, vehicle stock renewal, emissions of air pollutants and welfare level. TREMOVE models both passenger and freight transport in 21 countries including the EU15 plus Switzerland, Norway, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. The four new Member States are selected on the basis of data availability. TREMOVE covers the period 1995-2020. TREMOVE has a modular structure and consists of three inter-linked ‘core’ modules. The first module is the transport demand module which describes transport flows and the users’ decision making process when it comes to making their modal choice. The key assumption here is that the transport users will select the volume of transport and their preferred mode, period, region etc. based on the generalized price for each mode. The second module is the vehicle stock turnover module which describes how changes in demand for transport or changes in vehicle price structure influence the share of age and type of vehicles in the stock. The third core module is named fuel consumption and emission module. This module is used to calculate fuel consumption and emissions, based on the structure of the vehicle stock, the number of kilometres driven by each vehicle type and the driving conditions. Additional to the core modules TREMOVE is extended with a lifecycle emission module and a welfare cost module. The lifecycle emissions module enables to calculate emissions during production of fuels and electricity. The welfare cost module has been developed to compute the cost to society associated with emission reduction scenarios in European urban and non-urban areas. The welfare effect of a policy change is calculated as the discounted sum of changes in utility of households, production costs, external costs of congestion and pollution and benefits of tax recycling. The five above mentioned modules make use of specific country data which means that there are 21 separate models with a similar modular structure that work independent from each other. Additionally, TREMOVE includes one maritime transport demand model for all 21 countries in aggregate. Because of the focus of the project, this model is not relevant for the analysis of this project and is therefore not described in the following sections. Figure 2.1 shows the inter-linkages of the TREMOVE model. As indicated, outputs from the vehicle stock as well as fuel consumptions and emission modules are fed back
- 15 - into the demand module. As fuel consumption, stock structure and usage influence usage costs, they are important determinants of transport demand and modal split.
Figure 2.1: TREMOVE modular structure
Source: TREMOVE model description, version (2.41).
TREMOVE measures differences between the base case and a simulation. The separate values of welfare for simulation cannot be interpreted on their own. Only the difference between both values makes sense. Therefore, a TREMOVE model run always consists of two parts: a baseline run and a simulation run. The base case run uses an input database to contract a coherent reference case for transport demand, vehicle stocks and emissions. This reference case (or base case) has been developed for all countries and model regions considered.
2.1.1 The transport demand module The strength of the transport demand module is that it is an integrated simulation model which differentiates between private and business transport. Business transport is furthermore subdivided into passenger and freight transport. Within these model components, the following choices are going to be analysed and quantified on basis of generalised prices:
• Choices in the labour and leisure/consumption markets • Geographic choices: region and trip distance • Choice in period: peak or off-peak • Choice of modes and road types – urban • Choice of modes and road types – non-urban
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TREMOVE models the transport activity in a country without explicit origin- destination disaggregation and simulates in a coherent way the changes in volume of passenger and freight transport, modal and vehicle choice relative to a transport and emissions baseline. Thereby, the model relies on a certain assumption of how people and firms behave “on average”. For non-work and commuting passenger trips, transport demand and modal choice is determined by generalized prices and observed consumer preferences. In case of freight transport and business trips, the desired production quantities and substitution possibilities between transport modes and with other production factors are taken into account. In TREMOVE, the choice of transport type is modelled with a nested utility function. The represented discrete choice process has 10 levels. The complete “private” decision tree is disaggregated into 136, the complete “business” decision tree in 140 different types of transport possibilities. In the business tree 68 choices are related to passenger trips and 72 to freight transport.
2.1.2 The vehicle stock module The vehicle stock module is directly linked to the transport demand module and depends on the vehicle kilometres that are quantified within the demand module. As explained in section 2.1.1 the transport demand module delivers the figures separate for each vehicle category on each road type and according to the time of the day (peak/off- peak). In the vehicle stock module, for each vehicle category, the evolution of the detailed vehicle fleet and the related number of vehicle-km is estimated, based on three major elements:
• the historical vehicle fleet • the growth of the transport volumes • the characteristics of the available vehicle types and technologies on the market
The analysis of the number of vehicles in each vehicle type and category can be roughly described by three calculation steps. In the first step, the surviving stock of the vehicles has to be quantified. In the second step, the new sales of vehicles (be aggregate category) have to be assessed by adding the necessary number of vehicles to the surviving stock in order to meet the overall number of driven km in the respective years. In the third step, the overall number of vehicle sales by category has to be broken down into the different detailed vehicle types that are included in TREMOVE. For cars, this is done by using a sales logit model in which market shares are determined by the parameters lifetime driving price, acceleration, engine size and fuel type.
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2.1.3 The fuel consumption and emissions module Based upon the detailed vehicle stock characteristics and the number of vehicle-km, TREMOVE calculates the emissions per region, period and network type. TREMOVE covers several pollutants, e.g. CO2, NOx and SO2. A variety of methods is used to calculate the emissions included in TREMOVE. The methods depend on the pollutant, the transport mode and the vehicle type. For detailed information see the description of TREMOVE on www.tremove.org. In case of road transport emissions and fuel consumption, TREMOVE is based upon the Copert III emission calculation.1 This method is modified in TREMOVE for the calculation of road transport emissions e.g. TREMOVE differentiates the fuel consumption for diesel passenger cars according to car size and takes into account:
• the effect of airco on fuel consumption, • biofuels and CNG
• adaptations to COPERT fuel consumption factors based on the CO2 monitoring dB • …
Because the “pre-processor” emissions will become more and more substantial in the next years, a lifecycle emission analysis is incorporated in the model. The lifecycle emission module calculates the “pre-processor” emissions for all relevant fuels that are and will be used in the following years in the road transport sector and additionally electricity, kerosene, train diesel and gasoil for the other transport sectors.
2.1.4 The welfare module The difference in social welfare resulting from a policy analysis is calculated as the sum of four components that have to be expressed in monetary terms in order to be able to compute an overall impact on social welfare. The first two components are known as the producers’ and consumers’ surplus and are described as changes in utility of households and as changes in production costs. TREMOVE calculates these differences for the simulation run versus the baseline run. The functional form is a nested CES function for the quantification of the effect on consumers and producers. The third component is the change in government revenues. Taxes and VAT are calculated at the lowest nodes in the CES tree in the demand module. A value for base case and simulation case is for each year transferred to the welfare module. This value is adapted
1 Copert = COmputer Program to calculate Emissions from Road Traffic, a computer program developed in the framework of European Environment Agency’s CORINAIR project. Ntziachristos L., Samaras Z. (2000) Copert III computer programme to calculate emission factors from road transport. Modelling emission factors (version 2.1). Report to the European Environment Agency.
- 18 - for the value of marginal cost of public funds. The value of marginal cost of public funds expresses that different forms of taxes have different efficiencies. In TREMOVE we assume that the transport taxes replace labour or general taxes, or in other words, if no transport taxes were raised, labour or general taxes should be higher. The fourth component is the change in external effects. The external effects that are covered by the model are congestion costs and several environmental costs relying on the emission model. Positive external effects are not included in the model.
2.1.5 Methodology for the Impact Assessment on transport sector The assessment at the transport sector level is achieved by providing a standard output from the TREMOVE runs. This standard output includes
• absolute and relative changes in fuel consumption per fuel type relative to the base case • absolute and relative changes in emission reductions relative to the base case • absolute and relative changes in vehicle sales and stocks relative to the base case • changes in fuel mix and size structure • volume and percent changes in traffic demand relative to the base case by mode and vehicle type • welfare impact and decomposition of cost to society (including impact on public budget) • changes in generalised prices for transport (urban/rural), changes in average speed (road category)
In this interim report, the assessment on the transport sector level reports relative changes to the base case for transport demand, fuel consumption and the stock of passenger cars. For the final report this analysis is extended for absolute changes as well as for the remaining indicators listed above.
2.1.6 Extension of the TREMOVE output to EU25 The impact assessment of this project focuses on the EU25 member states. At the moment, the output of the TREMOVE model covers all EU15 members and 4 (CZ, HU, PL, SK) of the EU10 countries. For the impact assessment at the EU25 level it is therefore necessary to make some assumption in order to translate the TREMOVE output into an EU25 picture to assess the impact on the transport and society level. Of course, we are aware of the fact that a further extension of the EU member states by Bulgaria and Romania is expected in 2007. The extension of the TREMOVE output to EU27 could be reached in a similar way as for the EU25 countries (see the explanation below). However, Bulgaria and Romania are relatively small countries with respect to
- 19 - their GDP compared to the EU25 as a whole.2 Consequently, in a macroeconomic model like PACE-T the extension by these two countries will have a fairly small additional impact on the simulation results for the EU as a whole. Therefore, this analysis abstracts from the extension to EU27 and only focuses on the EU25 region. Since the TREMOVE output covers only 19 of the EU25 countries, it is necessary to extent these figures for the six remaining countries CY, EE, LT, LV, MT, and SK. Assuming that the EU10 countries reveal very similar structures with respect to transportation demand, we map these six countries to the four EU10 members covered in TREMOVE In a first step, the number of vehicles in the stock is quantified between the years 2000 and 2020. For the countries not covered in TREMOVE, the year-2000 stocks of passenger cars are adopted from UN (2001) and IRF (2002). Table 2.15 reports the figures on car stocks in 2000 for all EU10 countries.
Table 2.1: Vehicle Stock in the EU10 countries in 2000 (in 1.000 cars)
CY CZ EE HU LT LV MT PL SI SK
267,6 3484,5 463,9 2629,3 1172,2 556,3 189,1 11040,0 849,6 1274,2
Given the stocks of passenger cars in 2000, we calculate the ratio α of vehicles in all EU10 countries to the number of vehicles in CZ, HU, PL, and SK as follows:
vehicles α = 2000;EU 10 . vehicles2000;CZ , HU , PL , SK
This ratio is used to update the number of passenger cars between 2001 and 2020 for the whole EU10 region by taking into account the development of car stocks in the four regions covered in the TREMOVE output, i.e. vehiclestEU;10=⋅α vehicles tCZHUPLSK ;, ,, , where t = 2001,...,2020 .
With respect to the assessment on society level, the input data for passenger cars in the PACE-T model (i.e. purchase prices, fuel prices, fuel consumption, other costs) are yearly averages for the representative car in each country/region, as explained in section 0. Due to the lack of data, we again have to make a simple assumption for those EU10 countries which are not covered by TREMOVE. As an approximation for the whole EU10 region, we simply take the weighted averages of the input data for CZ, HU, PL,
2 In 2000 GDP in Bulgaria amounted to 13,7 bill. € and in Romania to 40,3 bill. € while GDP in the EU25 region was 9057,5 bill.. € (see: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/ indicators/annual_macro_economic_database/ameco_applet.htm). Taken GDP in Bulgaria and Romania together, it is only 0,6 percent of GDP in the EU25.
- 20 - and SK reached from the TREMOVE output. Take for example average purchase prices in the EU10, these are reached as
∑ avppriceti;;⋅ vehicles ti i avppricetEU;10= ∑vehiclesti; i
where t = 2000,...,2020 and iCZHUPLSK= , , , .
With respect to the assessment at the transport sector, further assumptions are necessary when translating the TREMOVE output into an EU25 picture. As far as relative changes are considered (with respect to 2000 or with respect to the baseline), changes for the whole EU10 region (or for the single countries) are simply reflected by the changes in the four Eastern European countries given in the TREMOVE output. As far as absolute changes in the transport sector are analysed, we calculate for each indicator (vkm, pkm…..) the weighted average over the four EU10 countries covered in TREMOVE multiply the respective values of the four EU10 countries Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia with a multiplying factor to get the EU10 values. This multiplying factor corresponds to the ratio from the four EU10 countries at the EU10 and is based on the 2000 figures (European Commission 2005). Of course, this assumption is very ad-hoc. However, first it is almost impossible to find predicted data on all indicators from one consistent source. Second, given that this multiplying factor is almost constant with respect to all indicators in the EU10 of 2000 and given further uncertainties about future developments that can never be covered by any model, we think that this ad-hoc assumption is nevertheless justified.
2.2 PACE-T
The policy simulations in this study are carried out within the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model PACE-T. General equilibrium models are widely used to quantify the economic impacts of various policy interventions (e.g. international trade, tax policies, climate policy in general). In the following the general features of the model are firstly outlined. Afterwards the specific modelling of the transport sector is discussed.
2.2.1 Model description PACE-T is a multi-regional, intertemporal general equilibrium model of the world economy which is based on the fundamental GTAPinGAMS structure (Rutherford
1998). The concrete analysis of different regulation measures to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars mainly focuses on the European area. Therefore, the model exhibits a relatively large disaggregation of the European countries (eight regions) while the
- 21 - remaining world is highly aggregated (three regions). An overview of all regions in PACE-T is given in Table 2.2.
Table 2.2: Regions in PACE-T
DE Germany REU15 Rest of EU15 ES Spain EU10 New EU member states FR France USA USA IT Italy JAP Japan NL Netherlands ROW Rest of the world UK United Kingdom
The sectoral disaggregation in PACE-T is comparable to other models with the focus on energy policy analysis. The full input-output decomposition of national accounts has been re-aggregated into 12 sectors (see Table 2.3; this is similar to Rutherford and Paltsev 2000). This sectoral disaggregation reflects the special relevance of energy resources and energy intensive economic sectors for climate protection.
Table 2.3: Sectoral Disaggregation in PACE-T
AGR Agrar OIL Oil SER Services COA Coal MAN Manufacturing GAS Gas EIS Energy intensive production PC Refined oil products TRN Transport services and trade ELE Electricity MVH Motor vehicles and parts and transport equipment CGD Aggregate savings good
The model is set up as a full dynamic model with optimal savings and investment decisions. Period length is chosen to be four years with the model horizon extending from 2006 to 2030. The implementation of 4-year periods allows an accurate assignment of the Kyoto CO2 targets in 2008 and 2012. International trade is modelled in the Armington fashion, i.e. goods produced in different countries are treated as imperfect substitutes and their import shares depend on their relative prices (Armington 1969). The only exception is the international crude oil market, which has been homogenised so that every country either imports or exports crude oil. The model is formulated as a system of nonlinear inequalities using GAMS/MPSGE (Rutherford 1999) and solved using PATH (Dirkse and Ferris 1995). The inequalities correspond to the three classes of conditions associated with a general equilibrium: (i) exhaustion of product (zero-profit) conditions for constant returns to scale producers, (ii) market clearance for all goods and factors, and (iii) income balance for the representative consumers in each region. The fundamental unknowns of the system are three vectors: activity levels (production indices), non-negative prices, and consumer
- 22 - incomes. In equilibrium, each of these variables is linked to one inequality condition: an activity level to an exhaustion of product constraint, a commodity price to a market clearance condition, and a consumer income variable to an income definition equation. An equilibrium allocation determines production, prices and incomes. For each region the model considers one representative household who maximises the present value of his lifetime income given the following constraints: (i) an intertemporal budget restriction, (ii) exhaustion of production in each period by consumption (domestic or export) and investment, and (iii) the equation of motion for the capital stock, i.e. capital stocks evolve through depreciation and new investment. The solution to the optimisation problem of the household yields an optimal path for consumption over time. All essential functions in the model are of the nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) type with extreme cases Cobb-Douglas (CD) and Leontief (L). The derivation of cost and demand functions is very technical. We therefore use in the following the simplified notation Output = CES(Input). Production of commodities in each region is captured by aggregate production functions which characterise technology through substitution possibilities between various inputs. Nested CES cost functions with three levels are employed to specify the substitution possibilities in domestic production between capital, labour, energy and non-energy, intermediate inputs. The production function has the following structure:
Y = L(intermediate inputs, crude oil, CES(energy, CES(primary inputs))), where
energy = CES(electricity, CES(coal, CES(gas, refined oil))).
At the top level, non-energy inputs are employed in fixed proportions with crude oil and an aggregate of energy, capital, and labour. At the second level, a CES function describes the substitution possibilities between the energy aggregate and the aggregate primary inputs. Finally, at the third level, the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour is constant. As to the formation of the energy aggregate, we allow sufficient levels of nesting to permit substitution between primary energy types, as well as substitution between a primary energy composite and secondary energy, i.e. electricity. On the output side, total domestic production splits up into domestic use and exports. With respect to domestic demand, the model assumes a hypothetical Armington commodity A which incorporates domestic and foreign goods, i.e.
- 23 -
A = CES(domestic production, CES(foreign production from other countries)).
Domestic demand is composed of final demand of private and public consumers and intermediate demand from other sectors. All demand fractions are of the same structure as the Armington commodity. Final demand C of the representative agent is given as a CES composite of transport services (see explanations below) and an aggregate of other consumption commodities:
C = CES(passenger transport services, other consumption commodities aggregate).
The consumption commodities aggregate CC combines consumption of an energy aggregate E with a non-energy consumption bundle:
CC = CES(CES(non energy commodities), E).
The energy aggregate in final demand consists of the various energy goods trading off at a constant elasticity of substitution, i.e.
E = CES(refined oil products, coal, gas).
With respect to the intertemporal structure of the model, we adopt the common assumptions on the accumulation of productive capital: Capital in each period is composed of the capital from the previous period (less depreciation) plus new investment. Depreciation and capital maturation rates have been adjusted to match the requirements of the 4-year periods in the model. The capital stock produces proportional capital services each year that enter the production functions. The proportionality factor has been calibrated according to the baseline interest rate. Investment into conventional productive capital is a Leontief-composite of output of all productive sectors with the share parameters determined through baseline investment. An essential feature of the transport sector in PACE-T is the modelling of passenger cars as durable consumption goods. The representative household does not consume cars as such but transport services TRN. These services are produced with various inputs which are mainly composed of capital services of the automobile stock in the respective economy, fuel and other expenditures (for operation and maintenance). The production function for transport services has the following shape:
TRN = CES(operation and maintenance, CES(capital services, fuel)).
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The automobile capital stock is treated similar to the stock of productive capital, i.e. the stock of automobile capital is composed of the stock in the previous period less depreciation plus new investment. This captures the fact that adjustment of the average automobile characteristics is not instantaneous. Cars from earlier vintages contribute to a certain extent to the production of current transport services. The durability of cars is assumed to be three periods, i.e. 12 years. Technology coefficients are time varying depending on the development of fuel and other costs. Car exports are assumed to be transferred to a world market which is the pool for all imports of automobiles. Besides the application of the sectoral, macroeconomic database GTAP5 (GTAP 2002), the calculation of the value of the automobile stock and the investment in new cars is calculated from TREMOVE data (see below). In order to preserve macroeconomic consistency, the consumption of passenger car transportation services has been subtracted from the aggregate consumption value of the respective national accounts.
2.2.2 Methodology for the Impact Assessment on society level The impact assessment of the considered scenarios on society level is carried out by applying the PACE-T model. Changes in the considered scenarios are reported with respect to the base case. Referring to the Technical Annex, the impact assessment at society level is reached as follows:
• Changes in GDP, productivity, the disposable income of the representative household, capital and investment are a standard output in PACE-T. Additionally, we report changes in real consumption since this is an important driver of GDP development and overall welfare. Since there is no possibility to quantify aggregated effects on unemployment with PACE-T, changes in employment are reported as employment shifts between the different production sectors. • International trade patterns are reflected in exports and imports which also serve as an indicator for the competitiveness of the considered countries. We therefore report changes in trade patterns (over all sectors) for the considered scenario. Additionally, since this study focuses on passenger cars, we also report the changes in car exports and imports. • Impact on public finances are reported as far as they refer to changes in taxation at the transport level and, depending on the scenario, possible financing tools for subsidies. With respect to distributional effects associated with the considered scenarios, we follow the neoclassical theory of the functional distribution of income.3 This is reflected in the development of wage rates of workers and the interest rate for capital owners.
3 See Mankiw, G. (2003), p.46ff.
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• For an overall evaluation of the considered scenarios we report social welfare which is measured as an equivalent income variation.
2.2.3 Data input and calibration
Data on international trade: GTAP Baseline data determine parameters of the functional forms from a given set of baseline quantities, prices, and elasticities4. The main data source for the calibration of national and international commodity flows is the GTAP5 database (GTAP 2002) which provides a consistent representation of energy markets in physical units as well as detailed accounts of regional production and consumption as well as bilateral trade flow. GTAP5 data are based on the year 1997 and are disaggregated into 65 regions and 58 production sectors. This disaggregation is partially reversed in PACE-T to generate the 11 regions and 12 sectors as described in the previous section.
Data on passenger cars: TREMOVE Input data on passenger cars in PACE-T are harmonized with the data provided in the TREMOVE database v2.42. In order to calculate international car stocks and the average properties of cars, we selected all relevant data from the demand, emissions and stock tables of the TREMOVE database.
Since the focus of this project is on the reduction of CO2 emissions of passenger cars, we have taken into account only the following vehicle types5:
• PCGS small gasoline cars, • PCGHS small hybrid gasoline cars, • PCDS small diesel cars, • PCGS_CNG small natural gas cars, • PCGM medium gasoline cars, • PCGHM medium hybrid gasoline cars, • PCDM medium diesel cars, • PCDHM medium hybrid diesel cars, • PCGM_CNG medium natural gas cars, • PCGB big gasoline cars, • PCGHB big hybrid gasoline cars, • PCDB big diesel cars, • PCDHB big hybrid diesel cars,
4 Table 8.3 which gives an overview of the elasticities in PACE-T is provided in the Annex. 5 Small diesel hybrids are not introduced in the market in the current baseline and are therefore not considered.
- 26 -
• PCGB_CNG big natural gas cars, and • PCL medium and big LPG cars.
All data selected from the TREMOVE database is aggregated in all essential dimensions in order to yield data in each country, for each period and vehicle type. Since PACE-T only incorporates one single car type (“all”), this data on the different vehicle types is further condensed to the single car category representing a typical car of the respective period and region. The implementation of passenger cars into PACE-T requires in a first step the extraction of vehicle kilometres and the number of vehicles from the demand and stock tables of the TREMOVE database. In order to calculate the value of the automobile capital stock, it is further necessary to compute average purchase prices. These were calculated in accordance to the TREMOVE model by applying 1995 road vehicle purchase resource costs and the price indices for road vehicle cost evolution. For unconventional cars (small diesel, hybrids, CNG, LPG) an increment is added to the purchase cost of their conventional equivalent. Given these purchase costs for all vehicle types, average car purchase costs are calculated as weighted averages over all car types. The value of the automobile capital stock is then simply the average car costs multiplied with the overall number of passenger cars (sum over all vehicles of the different car types). For the calculation of fuel costs, fuel consumption as given in the TREMOVE emissions table was recalculated using the densities6 of the different fuel types in order to reach fuel consumption in litres for gas, diesel, CNG and LPG cars. Fuel costs are then calculated from road fuel resource costs per litre. The calculation takes into account the assumption that all petrol and diesel road vehicles use blended fuels, i.e. the share of biofuel in both petrol and diesel blends increases to 5,75% by 2010 (with a linear interpolation between 2005 and 2010). The share of biofuel remains at 5,75% beyond 2020. All other costs are calculated on an annual basis from fix resource costs, variable resource costs, fix tax, variable tax, VAT on fix resource costs, and VAT on variable resource costs as selected from the TREMOVE demand table taking into account the computed purchase and fuel costs. Finally, PACE-T incorporates taxes in accordance to the TREMOVE model. The calculation takes into account road fuel taxes, road fuel VAT for the different fuel types as well as VAT on car purchase and registration taxes.
6 The respective densities are assumed as 0.75 kg/l for gasoline, 0.85 kg/l for diesel, 0.8 kg/m3 for CNG and 0.52 kg/l for LPG.
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The TREMOVE database does not cover all regions considered in PACE-T. In order to calculate the number of vehicles and all automobile costs, we had to map some countries to regions covered by TREMOVE. This mapping refers to the USA and Japan which are mapped with the EU15 countries and to ACE and ROW which are mapped with the new EU members (CZ, HU, PL, SI). Car stocks in 2000 in the USA, Japan, ACE and ROW are calculated from data provided in UN (2001) and IRF (International Road Federation, 2002). The growth rate for the car stock is assumed to be the same as for the countries with which these regions are mapped. All cost data is calculated as weighted averages from the countries with which the four PACE-T regions are mapped.
2.3 B&D Forecast model
2.3.1 Methodological overview B&D studies the economic and business impacts on the car manufacturer (OEM), the supplier industry and the dealership in the EU-25 member states caused by the target of
140g CO2/km CO2 emission in 2008 and 120g CO2/km CO2 emission in 2012 and 130g
CO2/km respectively. At this step B&D analyses the impacts of the different measures on the automotive sector in the EU. The following chart illustrates the proposed procedure.
Figure 2.2: Schedule of B&D analysis
Source: B&D Forecast
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Step 1: The above chart shows that in step 1, the EU car-market is split into sub-segments. Sub- segments are illustrated by squares in the chart. After the segments are defined, we study the impacts of the defined measures on the different car segments. Decisive variables at this step are new car registrations, which signalizes the car demand. To get a clear-cut picture of the measures on the different carmakers we have to define accurate car-market-segments. The following segmentation approach is used:
• EU25-total market • Major markets: Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain (Total Market Analysis) • Product-price-segmentation for German Car Market. Price groups according TREMOVE segmentation, i.e. small gasoline car (-1,4l), medium gasoline car (1,4 - 2l), big gasoline car (+2l), small diesel car (-1,4l), medium diesel car (1,4 - 2l), big diesel car (+2l).
New car registrations for a longer time series are available at B&D-Forecast. Using these registration time series data we estimate and simulate the impacts on the measures on the different car segments. For estimation and simulation we use experience of similar effects in the past, e.g. the reaction of car segments to the introduction of catalytic converters in the early 90ties. A comparison of competitive conditions between EU-car-market and US-car-market further allows evaluating impacts of regulations on EU-car-markets.
Step 2: After the study of the regulatory impacts on the different market segments, next step of analysis is to deduct the implications of car demand on the different players. At this step we focus on different carmaker groups, supplier and car dealer/garages. Again squares in Figure 2.2 marked by CD 1 (car dealer 1) to Sup n (supplier n), are used to illustrate the approach. Thereby, we cluster the player according to the following chart.
Figure 2.3: Players of the B&D analysis/simulation
Source: B&D Forecast
- 29 -
Clustering in that manner allows deriving the impacts of the measures on the different players. At the level of the carmaker the following differentiation seems to be worthwhile.
• European Premium (Audi, BMW, Porsche, Mercedes, Landrover, Jaguar, Volvo, Saab) • European Volume Manufacturer (Alfa-Fiat-Lancia, Opel, Ford, Renault, PSA- Peugeot-Citroen, VW-Skoda-Seat) • Non-European with European Production Facilities (Toyota, Honda, Hyundai) • Non-European without European Production Facilities (Daewoo/Chevrolet, Chrysler, GM, Ford-US, Mazda, Subaru, Suzuki)
For suppliers and car dealers/garages we deduct generally the impacts on the different groups of enterprises (company-size).
2.3.2 Description of workflow of the B&D model / simulation B&D studies the impacts of the different measures on the automotive sector in the EU. The findings of the simulations of TREMOVE and IEEP are starting point of B&D analysis. Therefore B&D all data will be integrated in the B&D forecast-tool FORCAR. The results of the FORCAR simulations will be matched with the output of the TREMOVE and IEEP simulations and the Baseline scenario.
Figure 2.4: Description of workflow
Source: B&D Forecast
On the basis of that balance B&D considered the impacts on the different players (OEM, supplier and car-dealer) in the automotive sector. Which effects will arise on the specific business by increasing costs of CO2 emissions reduction? What changes in business are caused by increasing technology costs?
- 30 -
Figure 2.5: Basic principle – overview
Source: B&D Forecast
2.3.3 Model description B&D-Model starts with the different parameters given by IEEP, TNO or TREMOVE for the car market. Major parameters are time series of registrations according to the listing below.
Sub-Model OEM Effects The objective is to transform these registrations in production volumes. Our model thus transforms registrations to production volumes for different manufacturer and vehicle segments/classes. The model further differentiates between EU15, EU 10 and rest of world production of carmaker. For that reason, we study the price-cost-relations given by TREMOVE, TNO assumption. Thus, if the margins are constant, i.e. if retail-price and induced cost will rise by the same percentage, the model assumes that allocation of production at OEM-level will show the same share. If OEM-margins decrease, the model assumes a decreasing share of OEM-production in EU15. Thus production is shifted to EU10. Our base model thus transfers registrations into production volumes in EU10, EU15.
Having done this, we have explained the effect of 120g CO2 legislation on allocation of car production.
Sub-Model Supplier Effects Allocation of car production is essential to determine allocation of supplier production. The model transfers therefore production volumes of OEM to supplier production at the different levels of supplier (tier1, tier 2, ,…) Essential for the allocation of the supplier production are again price-cost-margin effects. So given, the TNO, TREMOVE results
- 31 - show a constant development of OEM-Margin (technology cost is 100% included in retail price) no additional competition and price-pressure on OEM side is given compared to the situation without decrease of CO2 emissions. Our model thus is based on production elasticities.
Sub-Model Dealer Effects Performance of dealerships is due to two variables: new car sales and maintenance services. Registration forecast of TNO directly provide sales figures for new cars for the different brands and dealerships of the brands. Development of retail prices is essential to the dealer margins for new cars. Thus we again use the above mentioned retail- technology cost results of TNO. If margins decrease the model assumes a concentration process in dealer net. Again the model is driven by an elasticity which defines the conversion rate of margins into concentration. The second important variable to define dealer profit is maintenance services. For our model the car transport demand in kilometres thus defines the demand for maintenance. Car transport demand is given by TREMOVE baseline scenario. In addition the model integrates the demand for more expensive lubricants and tires. Again the model takes reacts on margins for that product, i.e. if retail price of lubricants will increase by the same percentage as cost, no margin-effect will occur. Thus the model calculates the profit-loss effects of the 120g CO2-policy on dealer service income Taking the two effects – new car profits per dealership and maintenance profit per dealership – in account, the model results in total dealer profit situation derived from the started policy measures. Our conversion rate of total dealership margins thus explains the concentration in the car dealership due to the policy measures. The development of car sales in the EU25, the development of the retail price structure as well as the development of the manufacturers’ costs structure (production- , retail and sales-costs) as basis. The changing price structure in the EU-market will lead to changes in the behaviour of the consumers and in consequence to a new split of sales volumes between different segments. The main variables defined within the model are illustrated by the following descriptions
- 32 -
Table 2.4: Sales volume split by segment
2000 2005 2008 2012 2020
Large Cars x1 x2 x3 x4 x5
Medium Cars y1 y2 y3 y4 y5
Small Cars z1 z2 z3 z4 z5
Table 2.5: Segment split divided by fuel-type
2000 2005 2008 2012 2020
Large Cars x1 x2 x3 x4 x5
Gasoline x11 x21 x31 x41 x51
Diesel x12 x22 x32 x42 x52
CNG x13 x23 x33 x43 x53
Hybrid x44 x24 x34 x44 x54
Medium Cars y1 y2 y3 y4 y5
Gasoline y11 y21 y31 y41 y51
Diesel y12 y22 y32 y42 y52
CNG y13 y23 y33 y43 y53
Hybrid y14 y24 y34 y44 y54
Small Cars z1 z2 z3 z4 z5
Gasoline z11 z21 z31 z41 z51
Diesel z12 z22 z32 z42 z52
CNG z13 z23 z33 z43 z53
Hybrid z14 z24 z34 z44 z54
All sales volume data in the simulation are on a yearly base 2000 to 2020 and provided by country or summed by EU 15 / EU 10 split or EU-total market.
Table 2.6: Retail price increase by segment
2000 2005 2008 2012 2020
Large Cars ∆p1L ∆p2L ∆p3L ∆p4L ∆p5L
Medium Cars ∆p1M ∆p2M ∆p3M ∆p4M ∆p5M
Small Cars ∆p1S ∆p2S ∆p3S ∆p4S ∆p5S
Table 2.7: Transportation by segment (in km)
2000 2005 2008 2012 2020
Large Cars d1L d2L d3L d4L d5L
Medium Cars d1M d2M d3M d4M d5M
Small Cars d1S d2S d3S d4S d5S
- 33 -
Table 2.8: Turnover Supplier industry
2000 2005 2008 2012 2020
Supplier Total u1 u2 u3 u4 u5
TIER 1 u11 u21 u31 u41 u51
TIER 2 u12 u22 u32 u42 u52 …
TIER 5 u15 u25 u35 u45 u55
Note: u = ulargecars + umediumcars + usmallcars
Table 2.9: Sales Volume Dealership
2000 2005 2008 2012 2020
Dealership Total w1 w2 w3 w4 w5
Large Dealer / Dealer-Groups w11 w21 w31 w41 w51
Medium Dealer w12 w22 w32 w42 w52
Small Dealer w13 w23 w33 w43 w53
Note: w = wlargecars + wmediumcars + wsmallcars
2.3.4 Input Parameters of the B&D Forcar Simulation B&D uses a number of different input parameter/date for their simulations. Some of the data required for the simulation are provided by project-partners (TNO/Task A, TML or ZEW other data are provided by the B&D Forecast data pool and the B&D simulation tools like FORCAR. The FORCAR Market Analyst Tool allows the explicative forecast of different markets. All factors which have an important impact on the car market development are taken into consideration. The FORCAR Market Analyst calculates the impact of each explicative factor for the market or a segment of the market. For the simulation of the “Impact assessment for the automotive sector in the EU” the following input factors are necessary. Basic output data split of brands and segments:
• Sales volumes per manufacturer per segment • Retail price increase and net costs to the consumer per manufacturer per segment for
reaching 140 g CO2/km in 2008 • Retail price increase and net costs to the consumer per manufacturer per segment for
reaching 120 g CO2/km in 2012 • Total technology costs to manufacturers (excl. taxes & margins, excl. fuel savings)
manufacturer (2008 to reach 140g CO2/km) • Total technology costs to manufacturers (excl. taxes & margins, excl. fuel savings)
per manufacturer (2012 to reach 120g CO2/km)
- 34 -
Summary by segment: The basic output data split of brands and segments lead to a summary by segment. The B&D standard segmentation and is normally divided by body and size is summarized to small, medium and large cars.
Table 2.10: Allocation to Segments
Small Medium Large
Mini x
Small x Lower Medium x Medium x Upper Medium x
Luxury x
Sport x MPV x Vans x Off-Road / SUV x Pick-Up x
The integration of the fuel-type / powertrain delivers the following market segmentation for the simulation
Small Medium Big Medium Big Small Medium Big Small Medium Big Small Medium Big gas gas gas diesel diesel gasoline gasoline gasoline diesel diesel diesel CNG CNG CNG Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid BMW DaimlerChrysler Fiat Ford GM Porsche PSA Renault Volkswagen ACEA Total Toyota Nissan Mitsubishi Honda Mazda Suzuki Subaru JAMA Total Hyundai Chevrolet / Daewoo KAMA Total Small Eur. Manuf. Other imports
- 35 -
Development of sales / retail costs and margin Higher technology costs lead to costs pressure. So the development of sales and retail costs as well as the margin is another important factor.
Development of production and site factors An increasing cost pressure means it is important for car manufacturer to cut down production costs. Therefore the question of the cheapest production site is fundamental. Only a “healthy cost structure” will guarantee a strong market position in the future. So the decision where to build the cars of the future is influenced by the following costs factors:
• labour costs • logistic costs • costs of capital • environmental requirements and costs • aid payments and regional promotion
These listed factors are followed by the decision of equipment investments of car manufacturer and supplier.
Relationship car manufacturer and supplier Car manufacturers and suppliers have a strong relationship. Over the years supplier more and more played the role of a technology partner on the one hand and a parts, component or module supplier on the other hand. But the supplier industry is strongly connected to the OEM on the cost side as well. Higher cost pressure to the manufacturer means higher cost pressure for the supplier, too. Consequently, lower sales volumes of the OEM leads to lower trading volume of supplier industry. Thus, we analyse the trade volume and the market structure of the supplier industry. Furthermore the reallocation added value split OEM and supplier (in %) is an important factor in the simulation.
Exchange rate €/$ For the European car manufacturers – especially the premium brands – the export markets play an important role to cover decreases of inner European sales by exports. Therefore the development of the exchange rate between the Euro and the dollar is another factor in the simulation.
- 36 -
That factor leads to an analysis of the volume car export of European manufacturer (OEM ACEA) and the volume car import of European manufacturer (OEM ACEA) from their plants outside EU e.g. see BMWs production site in Spartenburg, USA or Mercedes-Benz site in Tuscalosa, USA.
- 37 -
3 Baseline
3.1 TREMOVE
3.1.1 Exogeneous transport baseline The TREMOVE baseline is based on output of the European transport model SCENES, combined with specific data from some Member States, and consistent in the basic macro-economic and demographic hypothesis with DG TREN Energy Outlook 2030. The overall population growth rates for EU25 are also provided by DG TREN (2005) and Eurostat (for FR and IT). The key assumptions are summarised in the table below:
Table 3.1: Average annual growth rates of GDP and Population: EU25
GDP Population 2000-2010 2010-2020 2000-2020 2000-2010 2010-2020 2000-2020
AT 1,93% 1,95% 1,94% 0,30% 0,22% 0,26% BE 2,02% 2,03% 2,02% 0,30% 0,22% 0,26% DE 1,24% 1,69% 1,46% 0,08% -0,02% 0,03% DK 1,66% 1,52% 1,59% 0,24% 0,11% 0,17% ES 2,76% 2,64% 2,70% 1,11% 0,21% 0,66% FI 2,34% 1,88% 2,11% 0,23% 0,21% 0,22% FR 1,95% 2,06% 2,01% 0,46% 0,33% 0,4% IE 5,04% 3,54% 4,29% 1,3% 0,96% 1,13% IT 1,19% 2,02% 1,61% 0,29% -0,06% 0,12% LU 4,05% 4,83% 4,44% 0,84% 0,88% 0,86% NL 1,42% 1,83% 1,63% 0,46% 0,32% 0,39% PT 1,28% 2,75% 2,01% 0,44% 0,08% 0,26% SE 2,39% 2,32% 2,35% 0,35% 0,41% 0,38% UK 2,68% 2,41% 2,55% 0,38% 0,32% 0,35% CZ 3,39% 3,34% 3,37% -0,15% -0,22% -0,18% EE 5,64% 4,16% 4,90% -0,43% -0,52% -0,47% HU 3,68% 3,24% 3,46% -0,23% -0,29% -0,26% LV 7,35% 5,05% 6,20% -0,58% -0,57% -0,57% LT 6,50% 4,87% 5,68% -0,45% -0,5% -0,47% PL 3,92% 4,37% 4,14% -0,21% -0,2% -0,21% SK 4,60% 4,32% 4,46% -0,1% -0,14% -0,12% SI 3,57% 2,41% 2,99% 0,13% 0,01% 0,07% CY 3,66% 3,45% 3,55% 1,16% 1.00% 1,08% MT 1,32% 3,43% 2,37% 0,81% 0,72% 0,76% EL 3,79% 3,05% 3,42% 0,32% 0,14% 0,23% EU25 2.04% 2.24% 2.14% Source: DG TREN (2005) and Eurostat. For Spain (ES) and Portugal (PT), the population growth rates presented above include the off-shore island territories. The model input values are slightly different, as the island territories are not include in SCENES for transport modelling purposes.
- 38 -
Crude oil prices hypothesis are fully consistent with the last DG TREN forecasts:
Figure 3.1: Crude oil prices hypothesis
Crude Oil Price - $2000 per boe
50,00
40,00
30,00
20,00
10,00
0,00 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source DG TREN, TREMOVE
SCENES provides transport demand forecasts for both 2010 and 2020, based on a set of the macro-economic, demographic assumptions and fuel prices for 2010 and 2020 described above, and transport costs assumptions linked to policy development. The present baseline uses the Scenes run for the ASSESS project7, namely the „partial scenario“, considered the most likely future scenario, which includes only measures that will most likely be implemented before 2010. Table 3.2 presents the Scenes results for the “partial scenario” in terms of passenger travel growth from 2000 to 2010 and 2020. Based on the assumptions of population and car ownership growth, and the characteristics of each passenger demand segment, the Scenes model determines that the total passenger travel demand (in passenger km) in the EU25 will grow by ca. 13% in the period between 2000 and 2010 and by ca. 15% between 2010 am 2020. This leads to an overall increase of passenger-km between 2000 and 2020 by ca. 30%. As indicated in the table below, this overall growth is characterised by slower percentage rises in the old Member States (EU15) and much faster increases in the new Member States (EU10). Over this period, the population is stable in EU15 and slightly declining in some EU10 countries. This findings lead to the result that the growth of passenger demand stems mainly from the increasing mobility of the individuals. Looking at the demand growth rates of the several modes of passenger transport significant differences can be found. Under the „partial scenario“ a clear passenger demand growth of cars and airplanes can be seen (car: 17% and 36% respectively for the period of 2000-2010 and 2000-2020 in EU25, air: 51% and 109% respectively for the period of 2000-2010 and 2000-2020in EU25). Train, bus and walking/cycling are
7 Mid-term assessment of the White Paper on transport.
- 39 - expected to grow more slowly in terms of passenger-km. Passenger train/metro/tram services may still rise in some countries, especially in those where commuting and other journeys have been getting longer but road congestion has constrained the growth of peak time road travel. In EU10, bus and train demand is likely to decline.
Table 3.2: Baseline passenger travel demand (in bill. pkm per year)
observed partial scenario Absolute terms % change over period Region Mode 2000 2010 2020 2000-2010 2000-2020
EU15 Car 4.339 4.961 5.683 14% 31% Bus/coach 417 443 435 6% 4% Train/metro 348 396 432 14% 24% Air 284 427 586 50% 106% Walk/cycle 211 239 251 13% 19% All 5.598 6.195 7.071 15% 32% EU10 Car 384 560 730 46% 90% Bus/coach 74 69 63 -7% -15% Train/metro 58 57 53 -2% -7% Air 7 13 21 92% 212% Walk/cycle 22 26 28 19% 29% All 545 725 895 33% 64% EU25 Car 4.723 5.521 6.413 17% 36% Bus/coach 491 512 498 4% 1% Train/metro 406 453 485 11% 20% Air 291 440 607 51% 109% Walk/cycle 233 265 279 14% 20% All 6.143 6.920 7.966 13% 30% Source: TREMOVE
In terms of annual growth rate, the evolution of the transport demand by vehicle category would be as table 3.3 shows. Transport demand forecasts in passenger-km and tonne-km are transformed into vehicle-km, using exogenous occupancy rates and load factors.8 The detailed data of occupation rates and load factors can be found in the annex of this report.
8 For passenger cars, SCENES uses average occupancies derived from the UK National Travel Survey and from recent data collected for 2001-2003 from different Member States. These rates are distance weighted, so that long distance car journeys that have higher occupancy have a greater weight than short distance trips. In the current TREMOVE baseline, the occupancy rates of SCENES are applied in most countries. Though, for Belgium, Germany, France and United Kingdom, the occupancy rates have been adapted towards aggregate estimates delivered by national government representatives. Load factors are assumed to stay constant per type of truck over the period. However, the composition of the truck fleet changes over time (1995-2020), commodity (bulk, general cargo, unitised) and road type. Therefore, the overall load factor varies over time, commodity and road type. As for occupancy rates the load factors for each truck type used in TREMOVE are for most countries provided by the SCENES modellers. Though, for Belgium, Germany, France and United Kingdom,
- 40 -
Table 3.3: Baseline transport demand (annual growth rate)
Transport Region Mode percentage change per year demand 2000-2010 2000-2020 EU15 Car Pkm 1,31% 1,19% Bus/coach Pkm 1,20% 1,08% Train/metro Pkm 1,32% 1,17% Air Pkm 1,48% 1,26% Walk/cycle Pkm 1,29% 1,16% EU10 Car Pkm 1,47% 1,25% Bus/coach Pkm -1,21% -1,14% Train/metro Pkm -1,05% -1,10% Air Pkm 1,57% 1,31% Walk/cycle Pkm 1,34% 1,40% EU25 Car Pkm 1,33% 1,20% Bus/coach Pkm 1,16% 1,02% Train/metro Pkm 1,28% 1,16% Air Pkm 1,48% 1,26% Walk/cycle Pkm 1,30% 1,16% Source: TREMOVE.
Table 3.4 shows the vehicle-km of the passenger transport modes. Compared to Table 3.2 it has to be pointed out that Table 3.4 does not contain aviation and walking/cycling but the categories light and heavy duty vehicles. The growth rates of both categories are very high in the EU10 while they are comparable in the EU15. This reflects the overall trend in freight transport to use trucks as preferred transport mode. The comparison of the statistics in the two tables with respect to cars shows no significant differences which is a result of the almost constant occupation rate over time and of an unchanged behaviour in using the car for several purposes. In the EU10 there is a 10% difference between the numbers of passenger- and vehicle-km which reflects a change in using the car. Significant differences between the vehicle- and passenger-km can be found for the public transport modes busses/coaches and trains/metros. While the driven kilometre of busses/coaches in the EU15 increases permanently in the period between 2000 and 2020, the number of passenger-km decreases between 2010 and 2020 which must be the result of a declining occupation rate. The same situation – but more obvious – holds for the transportation by train/metro in the EU10. The driven kilometre of train/metro increases by about 10% between 2000 and 2020 but the number of passenger-km decreases in the same period by about 7%.
the occupancy rates have been further adapted towards aggregate estimates delivered by national government representatives.
- 41 -
Table 3.4: Baseline passenger travel demand (in bill. vkm per year)
observed partial scenario Absolute terms % change over period Region Mode 2000 2010 2020 2000-2010 2000-2020
EU15 Car 2.626.727 2.995.043 3.419.543 14% 30% Light duty 265.475 284.405 307.317 7% 16% Heavy duty 206.501 234.033 269.313 13% 30% Bus/coach 30.343 32.131 33.162 6% 9% Train/metro 2.339 2.717 2.973 16% 27% All 3.131.3843.548.329 4.032.308 13% 29% EU10 Car 180.662 255.157 326.080 41% 80% Light duty 19.145 27.499 35.482 44% 85% Heavy duty 25.449 41.810 57.003 64% 124% Bus/coach 4.830 4.458 4.067 -8% -16% Train/metro 483 494 531 2% 10% All 230.569329.419 423.163 43% 84% EU25 Car 2.807.388 3.250.201 3.745.622 16% 33% Light duty 284.620 311.905 342.799 10% 20% Heavy duty 231.950 275.843 326.316 19% 41% Bus/coach 35.173 36.589 37.229 4% 6% Train/metro 2.822 3.210 3.505 14% 24% All 3.361.9533.877.748 4.455.471 15% 33% Source: TREMOVE
3.1.2 Vehicle Stock Starting from the transport demand forecasts and 1995 vehicle stock data, the sales and scrappage models in the vehicle stock turnover module have been used to produce vehicle stock projections for all modes:
• The stock of each vehicle category is calculated by using the number of vehicles from the previous year that have not broken down last year. This is calculated with survival functions (Weibull functions) where survival decreases with the age of the car. These functions come from the TRENDS project. • Based on the average mileage of the vehicle category9, the needed vehicle-km from the demand forecasts in a respective year are transformed into the number of vehicles needed to drive these (desired stock). The difference between desired stock and surviving stock are the sales of new vehicles (per vehicle category) in year. • The amount of new vehicles (e.g. for small cars) is then divided into vehicle types (small gasoline car, medium diesel cars, etc.) using a nested logit model in which
9 Calculated based on fleet and transport volume statistics of 1995 or another recent year when statistics are available.
- 42 -
market shares are determined by the parameters lifetime driving price10, acceleration, engine size and fuel type. Hence, for each vehicle type, we obtain a complete description of the forecasted age structure and thus technology structure. • An additional factor taken into account by TREMOVE is that the mileage decreases with the age of the vehicle (see graph below). Also the mileages of different vehicle types within a vehicle category differ in the model, e.g. diesel cars will have higher annual mileages than petrol cars.
Figure 3.2: Relative annual car mileage as a function of vehicle age (in %)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 45,00 50,00 55,00
EU-15 EU-10
Source: TREMOVE
Table 3.5: Number of vehicles in the EU25 vehicle category 2000 2010 2020 % growth 2000-2020 moped 14,899,909 17,113,039 19,714,926 32.3% motorcycle 13,445,331 15,809,603 18,454,987 37.3% passenger cars 191,013,096 220,879,347 255,346,664 33.7% light duty vehicle 20,103,598 22,295,119 24,633,691 22.5% bus 412,716 439,546 431,460 4.5% coach 226,024 229,512 226,773 0.3% heavy duty vehicle 7,656,572 8,970,095 10,673,959 39.4% passenger train 39,404 40,774 41,541 5.4% freight train 14,430 13,711 14,976 3.8% Grand Total 247,811,080 285,790,747 329,538,977 33.0% Source: TREMOVE
10 Using a 4% discount rate.
- 43 -
The number of vehicles will grow in the EU25, depending on the transport mode in a range of 0,3% to 39,4%. The highest growth rates can be found for heavy trucks, two- wheelers and cars, the lowest ones for public transport modes and railways. Having a detailed look at the segments of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, Table 3.5 shows a change in the market structure of cars changes in the period 2000 to 2020. The market share of small gasoline cars is shrinking from 40% in 2000 to 26% in 2020, the one of medium gasoline cars from 27% to 18%. This reduction is offset by an increasing market share of diesel cars. While small diesel cars haven’t almost existed in 2000 they will have a market share of almost 5% in 2020 and the market share of medium diesel cars will more than double within this period. In 2020 a market share of 27% is going to be expected. The overall number of vehicles is expected to grow within the analysed period by about 33% in the EU25 (from 211 Mio. cars in 2000 to 280 Mio. cars in 2020).
Table 3.6: Number and share of the car type
Vehicle type Number and share of car types 2000 % Fleet 2010 % Fleet 2020 % Fleet LTD light duty vehicle diesel 14,037,722 6.6% 16,256,092 6.7% 17,783,232 6.4% LTG light duty vehicle gasoline 6,065,876 2.9% 6,039,027 2.5% 6,850,459 2.4% PCDM medium diesel car 1,4-2,0 l 25,727,171 12.2% 58,994,136 24.3% 76,044,240 27.2% PCDB big diesel car +2,0 l 8,958,672 4.2% 15,754,173 6.5% 23,553,913 8.4% PCDS small diesel car -1,4 l 32,194 0.0% 8,123,442 3.3% 15,267,086 5.5% PCGM medium gasoline car 1,4-2,0 l 58,075,389 27.5% 51,192,796 21.1% 50,322,121 18.0% PCGB big gasoline car +2,0 l 9,793,333 4.6% 9,713,663 4.0% 12,311,765 4.4% PCGS small gasoline car -1,4 l 85,240,211 40.4% 73,840,695 30.4% 73,830,046 26.4% Other (LPG, CNG) 3,186,127 1.5% 3,260,443 1.3% 4,017,493 1.4% Diesel vehicles 48,755,759 23.1% 99,127,843 40.8% 132,648,471 47.4% Grand Total 211,116,695 243,174,466 279,980,355 Source: TREMOVE
Given the structure of the forecasted car stock the average mileage per car type is important for the CO2 emissions of the overall passenger car segment. Table 3.7 displays the yearly driven kilometre per car segment. The table is differentiated in gasoline and diesel cars, small, medium/big cars and light duty vehicles used as passenger cars. It can be seen that there is a correlation between the size of the car and the average mileage driven. Throughout the whole period of the analysis medium and big diesel cars have the highest average mileage values per year, followed by diesel driven light duty vehicles, medium and big gasoline cars, small gasoline and diesel cars and finally gasoline driven light duty vehicles. This order might result from the different
- 44 - driving cycles of the car segments. Small cars are mainly used in local areas while medium and big cars are preferably used for long distance transport. A second result with respect to the variable “yearly average mileage” is the – more or less – constant figures per car segment throughout the whole period of analysis. Within the 25 years the maximum change in the average mileage per year is less than 5%. An exception is the segment of gasoline light duty vehicles where a reduction of almost 32% can be found.
Table 3.7: Average mileage (vkm/passenger car) over the forecast period
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
LTD light duty vehicle diesel 15.462 15.610 15.729 15.594 15.560 15.514 LTG light duty vehicle gasoline 11.333 10.235 9.317 8.716 8.624 8.599 PCMBD medium and big diesel car >1,4l 17.063 16.791 16.622 16.428 16.347 16.347 PCSD small diesel car -1,4 l 11.548 11.790 11.898 11.853 PCMBG medium and big gasoline car >1,4l 14.395 14.205 14.088 13.916 13.835 13.761 PCSG small gasoline car -1,4 l 12.590 12.172 12.272 12.142 12.079 12.023 Source: TREMOVE
3.1.3 Road transport emissions and fuel consumption The TREMOVE fuel consumption and emission module is based upon the Copert III emission calculation methodology11 12 for the calculation of road transport emissions. Within the TREMOVE development, a number of additions have been brought to the Copert III methodology to take account of developments that occurred since the publication of this methodology13. The main changes related to fuel consumption and
CO2 from light duty vehicles are the following:
• Differentiation of fuel consumption for diesel passenger cars according to car size. • Increase of fuel efficiency for all road vehicles due to technological improvements. • Correction of emission factors to real world behaviour. • Effect of airco on emissions and fuel consumption • Blended biofuels
11 Copert = COmputer Program to calculate Emissions from Road Traffic, a computer program developed in the framework of the European Environment Agency’s CORINAIR project. 12 Ntziachristos L., Samaras Z. (2000) Copert III computer programme to calculate emission factors from road transport. Modeling and emission factors (version 2.1). Report to the European Environment Agency. 13 These development will be modified as soon as the next version of Copert (version 4) is available and implemented into TREMOVE, by September 2006. Copert 4 takes on board i.a. the outcome of ARTEMIS and PARTICULATES research projects.
- 45 -
• Alternative technologies (Hybrid cars/CNG cars)
The Copert III methodology provides one fuel efficiency factor for all diesel car engine sizes. Based on the monitoring system, coefficients14 have been calculated to apply to the Copert III fuel consumption figures, as the ratio of the engine size specific consumption to the average value for all diesel cars. The coefficients have been added to the table.
Table 3.8: New diesel cars test cycle fuel efficiency
engine size -1,4 l 1,4 l – 2,0 l +2,0 l all
new car fuel efficiency in l/100 km (EU14 avg.) 4,20 5,50 7,60 5,90 fuel consumption coefficient 0.71 0,94 1,29
To allow implementing the agreements between the European Commission and the car manufacturers in TREMOVE, an assessment had to be made on some issues on which the agreement is not clear:
• It is assumed the relative effort (in terms of fuel efficiency variation) to be the same for all countries. • An identical relative effort for all engine size categories and fuels based on 2002
statistics. 140 g CO2/km target to be met based on the 2002 fuel shares • Low sulphur effect as estimated by COWI (2002)15
• The effort to reach the overall target of 140g CO2/km in the 2002-2009 period is the same for all years.
Table 3.9: Car makers agreements implementation assumptions (EU15 average)
diesel gasoline average
2002 (CO2 Monitoring Report figures) 155 172 165 2009 target 132 146 140 2002-2009 evolution -15,2 % -15,2 % -15,2 % Additional reduction by introducing low sulphur fuels -2,0 % -3,0 % Total reduction in the 2003-2009 period -17,2 % -18,2 % Annual reduction -2,7 % -2,8 %
14 As emissions of CO2 and SO2 are closely related to fuel consumption, emission factors for these emission factors have been corrected as well. 15 The ACEA agreement makes reference to the introduction of fuels with improved fuel quality based on Directive 98/70/EC, requiring maximum sulphur levels of 50 ppm by 2005. The Directive has since been amended to lower sulphur contents further down to 10 ppm by 2009 the latest. This amendment (Directive 2003/17/EG) was made after the ACEA agreement, for this reason we understand it as being complementary.
- 46 -
The table above provides an overview of the assumed fuel efficiency evolution. TREMOVE assumes no further fuel efficiency improvements after 2009.16 For the 1995-2002 period, assumptions regarding the evolution of the fuel efficiency have been derived from the figures in the CO2 Monitoring Reports (covering the 1995-2002 period). Fuel efficiency improvements for trucks, buses/coaches and motorcycles/mopeds have been added to the Copert III fuel consumption factors for vehicles sold after 1996. The improvement rates for the 1997-2009 period (table below) are equal to the rates used in the Auto-Oil II program17, which followed from discussions with ACEA. TREMOVE assumes no further fuel efficiency improvements after 2009. TREMOVE currently assumes a difference between test cycle and real world about 15 % in all EU countries, and keeps this difference constant over time, as there is no evidence regarding a possible evolution18. The Copert III methodology seems to be below the assumed 15 % difference for 2002 (without airco impact). Therefore it was decided to change the Copert III functions for 2002 by introducing a scale coefficient with value 1,1. This results in a difference between Copert based simulations and test cycle measurements of 15,9 % (diesel) and 11,8 % (gasoline) for 2002. The evolution over time and engine size classes has then been applied using 2002 as a reference year. The 1,1 coefficient has not been applied to the Copert function for pre- EURO I cars.
Table 3.10: Fuel efficiency improvements for non car road vehicles
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
light duty vehicles 0,65 % 0,65 % 0,65 % 0,65 % 0,65 % 0,65 % 0,65 % heavy duty vehicles 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % motorcycles and mopeds 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 %
… 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
light duty vehicles … 1,75 % 1,75 % 1,75 % 1,75 % 1,75 % 0,50 % heavy duty vehicles … 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 0,50 % motorcycles and mopeds … 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 1,00 % 0,50 %
16 This baseline assumption is needed to enable the assessment of the effects of further agreements with the car industry (the current voluntary agreement includes an option to discuss further reductions up
to 120g CO2/km on the longer term. 17 European Commission, Standard & Poors’ DRI, K.U.Leuven. The AOP II Cost – Effectiveness Study. August 1999. 18 To be correct, we assume a small increase resulting from the changed test cycle specification
applying from 2001 on; however the difference between both test cycle CO2 emissions is expected to amount to 0,7% according to the most recent CO2 monitoring report by the Commission.
- 47 -
The evolution over time and engine size classes has then been applied using 2002 as a reference year. The 1,1 coefficient has not been applied to the Copert function for pre- EURO I cars. The functioning of mobile air conditioning equipment19 causes extra fuel consumption, and therefore extra CO2 and SO2 emissions. The effects on emissions of other pollutants are much more uncertain. They have not been taken into account. For the time being, TREMOVE assumes the additional fuel consumption is constant over time, as shown in Table 3.10 below.
Table 3.11: Extra fuel consumption for cars with air conditioning (litre per 100 vkm), TREMOVE Baseline
Countries Petrol cars Diesel cars
DK, FI, IE, NO, UK, SE 0,23 0,17 AT, BE, CZ, DE, CH, FR, LU, NL, PL, HU 0,31 0,23 ES, GR, IT, PT, SI 0,49 0,36
In TREMOVE, it is assumed that there will be a gradual penetration of biofuel from 0% in 2005 towards 5,75% in 2010 of all gasoline and diesel fuel consumed by road transport and then remain constant. The blend levels can be specified per fuel type (blended diesel, blended petrol), country and year. It is assumed that (1) all road vehicle types use the blended fuels and consumers cannot choose between using blended or unblended fuels, and (2) tax reductions and/or subsidies for biofuels lead to the same consumer prices for the blended fuels than for conventional gasoline and diesel. CNG cars: The model foresees a gradual introduction of CNG cars between 2000 and 2020. The CNG fuel consumption is calculated in m³ CNG/vkm as the conventional fuel (gasoline) consumption multiplied by a multiplication factor, 1.077. Conversion for m³ to tonnes then happens via the fuel density (0,734 kg/m³ at 1 atm). The fuel consumption and emission factors are based on a TNO study.20 The study compares emissions from CNG cars with emissions from gasoline cars. The ratios between both are used in this study and given in the table below.
19 TREMOVE includes also emissions from the cooling liquid in the air conditioning system. 20 TNO : Hendriksen P., Vermeulen R.J., Rijkeboer R.C., Bremmers D., Smokers R.T.M., Winkel R.G. (2003), Evaluation of the environmental impact of modern passenger cars on petrol, diesel, automotive LPG, CNG, report for the Minestry of VROM, DUTCH LPG Association (VVG) and NGV-Holland
- 48 -
Table 3.12: Emissions of CNG cars compared to emissions of gasoline Euro 4 cars
Emission emissions ratio CNG / gasoline Euro 4
NOx 0,40 VOC 0,85 PM 0,33
CO2 0,81
CH4 8,41 CO 1,07
C6H6 0,25
N2O 0,33
The impact of changes in fuel specifications on vehicle emissions have been taken into account by introducing the EPEFE equations, developed within the Auto-Oil I program21. TREMOVE includes the assumption that from 2009 onwards, all gasoline and diesel used by road vehicles includes only ten ppm sulphur as foreseen in Directive 98/70, amended by Directive 2003/17/EC. Well-to-Tank emission factors for fuels are derived from the lastest JRC-WtW Study (see Table 3.13). The emission factors represent emissions related to fuel production as well as fuel distribution up to regional filling stations and emissions at the filling stations themselves (except for LPG). Also, additional emissions related to the need for the production of low-sulphur fuels for road transport have been taken into account. No differentiation of emission factors over countries has been introduced. Due to lack of precise information on the location of the emission (for fuel production), only WtT GHG emissions are reported.
21 ACEA and EUROPIA. (1996) European Programme on Emissions, Fuels and Engine Technologies, Final Report.
- 49 -
Table 3.13: Well-to-Tank Emission factor and fuel pathway by 2012 in TREMOVE Baseline
Fuel Pathway Emission factor kg/kg Pathway baseline by 2012
Code Description CO2 CH4 N2O CO2eq(1) (% fuel)
Gasoline COG1 Conventional 0,54 0,000 0,000 0,54 n/a Diesel COD1 Conventional 0,61 0,000 0,000 0,61 n/a CNG GPCG1a Imported NG via 7000 km pipeline 0,73 0,015 0,000 1,07 GPCG1b Imported NG via 4000 km pipeline 0,45 0,010 0,000 0,69 70% GRCG1 LNG from Middle East 0,81 0,007 0,000 0,98 30% Ethanol SBET1 Sugar beet, pulp to animal feed 1,32 0,006 0,001 1,68 SBET3 Sugar beet, pulp to heat 0,82 0,001 0,001 1,28 WTET1a Wheat, conv boiler, DDGS to animal feed 2,10 0,005 0,001 2,56 WTET2a Wheat, NG GT + CHP, DDGS to animal feed 1,61 0,004 0,001 2,01 70% WTET3a Wheat, Lignite CHP, DDGS to animal feed 3,65 0,001 0,001 4,00 WTET4a Wheat, Straw CHP, DDGS to animal feed 0,72 0,001 0,001 1,07 WTET1b Wheat, conv boiler, DDGS to heat & power 1,38 0,003 0,002 2,18 WTET2b Wheat, NG GT + CHP, DDGS to heat & power 0,89 0,001 0,002 1,64 30% WTET3b Wheat, Lignite CHP, DDGS to heat & power 2,94 -0,001 0,002 3,63 WTET4b Wheat, Straw CHP, DDGS to heat & power 0,01 -0,001 0,002 0,70 WFET1 Farmed wood 0,78 0,001 0,000 0,94 WWET1 Waste wood 0,78 0,001 0,000 0,78 SCET1 Sugar cane (Brazil) 0,05 0,007 0,001 0,45 Biodiesel ROFA1 Rape, glycerine as chemical 0,58 0,003 0,003 1,48 80% SOFA1 Sunflower, glycerine as chemical 0,19 0,000 0,000 0,33 20% WFSD1 Farmed wood 0,19 0,000 0,000 0,33 WWSD1 Waste wood 0,20 0,000 0,000 0,21 BLSD1 Waste wood through black liquor 0,10 0,000 0,000 0,11
(1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O Source CONCAWE
The table below gives an overview of the vehicle stock, transport demand and CO2 emissions from light duty vehicles with the current draft baseline.
- 50 -
Table 3.14: Overview of vehicle stock, demand and CO2 emissions in TREMOVE Baseline
Data vehicle fuel type 2000 2010 2020 category Number of small car gasoline 85,240,211 73,840,695 73,830,046 vehicles diesel 32,194 8,123,442 15,267,086 CNG 238,071 920,809 medium/big gasoline 67,868,722 60,906,459 62,633,885 car diesel 34,685,843 74,748,309 99,598,153 CNG 96,636 698,006 LPG 3,186,127 2,925,736 2,398,678 light duty gasoline 6,065,876 6,039,027 6,850,459 vehicle diesel 14,037,722 16,256,092 17,783,232 Veh.km small car gasoline 1,059,929.37 900,777.61 883,185.68 diesel 380.81 95,453.17 182,589.42 CNG 2,759.51 10,940.80 medium/big gasoline 909,319.04 779,674.47 792,368.33 car diesel 585,589.10 1,183,792.02 1,548,921.56 CNG 1,233.25 8,887.03 LPG 60,977.61 55,007.09 45,015.60 light duty gasoline 61,813.14 52,275.19 58,140.47 vehicle diesel 219,360.56 254,679.50 278,271.80 Exhaust small car gasoline 209,232,318.29 155,403,798.05 130,817,347.54 CO2 diesel 50,362.01 12,027,346.57 23,120,505.19 Emissions CNG 375,231.31 1,297,187.68 medium/big gasoline 210,172,196.00 158,766,835.91 138,676,749.44 car diesel 115,119,288.41 204,201,452.69 259,794,430.73 CNG 186,334.82 1,230,401.63 LPG 11,656,895.27 9,567,522.85 6,639,449.27 light duty gasoline 17,737,885.99 15,558,505.80 16,967,141.19 vehicle diesel 50,111,043.36 53,969,001.77 55,362,108.41
CO2/Vkm small car gasoline 197.4 172.5 148.1 diesel 132.3 126.0 126.6 CNG 136.0 118.6 medium/big gasoline 231.1 203.6 175.0 car diesel 196.6 172.5 167.7 CNG 151.1 138.4 LPG 191.2 173.9 147.5 light duty gasoline 287.0 297.6 291.8 vehicle diesel 228.4 211.9 198.9 Number of vehicles 211,116,695 243,174,466 279,980,355 Veh.km 2,897,369.62 3,325,651.81 3,808,320.69
Exhaust CO2 Emissions 614,079,989.32 610,056,029.77 633,905,321.09
CO2/Vkm 211.9439598 183.4395377 166.4527157 Source: TREMOVE.
- 51 -
3.2 PACE-T
The baseline path from 2000 to 2030 in PACE-T which is the base for all policy simulations includes all key assumptions of a dynamic model:
• Fully flexible output and factor prices and perfectly competitive markets, • Labour force productivity increases at an exogenous growth rate (Harrod-neutral technological progress), • In each region, a representative consumer maximises the present value of lifetime utility subject to (i) an intertemporal balance of payments constraint, (ii) the constraint that output per period is either consumed (incl. intermediate demand and exports) or invested, and (iii) the equation of motion for the capital stock, i.e. capital stocks evolve through depreciation and new investment, • Agents have an infinite horizon, and their expectations are forward looking and rational. To approximate an infinite horizon model with a finite horizon model we assume that the representative consumer purchases capital in the model’s post- horizon period at a price which is consistent with steady-state equilibrium growth (terminal condition).
The functional forms are calibrated on the data in 2000, i.e. all free parameters of the model are calculated such that the model replicates the macroeconomic structure as given by the GTAP5 database and the year-2000 automobile input data as calculated from the TREMOVE database. Table 3.13 summarizes the automobile input data in 2000 as calculated for the representative passenger car from the TREMOVE database.
Table 3.15 Automobile input data in 2000
Vehicles (in mio.) Purchase Costs (in €) Fuel Costs (in €) Other Costs (in €)
DE 41.219 17.045,36 360,2 2.787,89 ES 17.231 11.807,52 354,11 1.536,24 FR 25.974 14.410,42 382,15 2.787,28 IT 34.236 11.723,09 440,88 1.976,15 NL 6.217 11.327,16 585,09 2.923,48 UK 23.613 19.006,4 437,02 3.440,96 REU15 25.131 12.822,71 545,48 2.734 EU10 21.927 7.473,35 199,35 931,36 USA 144.305 14.532,59 424,11 2.991,35 JAP 60.581 14.532,59 424,11 2.883,21 Source: TREMOVE, own calculations.
In a first step, the model is calibrated to a steady-state growth path assuming an interest rate of 4% and an average annual growth rate of 2.3%. In order to harmonize the assumption in PACE-T with TREMOVE we recalibrate our model to an exogenous
- 52 - price path for oil, gas and coal (see Table 3.14). Note that we assume the same price development for oil and gas.
Table 3.16 Energy import prices (in 2000$/boe)
2000 2006 2010 1014 2018 2022 2026 2030
Oil/Gas 28,24 43,42 36,82 36,98 38,63 41,76 45,45 47,54 Coal 7,60 9,32 9,66 10,16 10,66 10,94 11,25 11,51
Furthermore, the calibration of the model incorporates exogenous time-dependent technology parameters for automobiles. These are calculated from the changes in car cost parameters as computed from the TREMOVE database. Table 3.17 shows the development of car purchase prices for the model periods. Of course the table reflects the differences in road vehicles purchase resource costs between the different EU countries. As the table indicates, purchase prices in ES, IT, NL and REU15 are of comparable size while those in FR, DE and especially UK are much higher. Compared to the EU15 countries average purchase prices in the EU10 are about 5,000€ to 12,000€ lower. This is a very big difference. The increase in purchase prices over the considered period ranges between 12% and 19% in most EU15 countries. Exceptions to this are NL and the REU15 region where we observe purchase price increases of 22.3% and 23.3%, respectively. In the EU10, the price increase is more moderate. Over the same time, average purchase prices rise by only 9.9%.
Table 3.17 Baseline car purchase prices (in €)
2000 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022-30
DE 17.045,36 17.823,50 18.403,08 19.101,63 19.850,04 20.230,05 ES 11.807,52 12.208,55 12.461,78 12.818,54 13.258,02 13.498,49 FR 14.410,42 15.012,01 15.458,62 16.069,95 16.739,86 17.082,46 IT 11.723,09 12.203,79 12.504,85 12.891,23 13.333,03 13.565,58 NL 11.327,16 12.001,38 12.458,76 13.017,69 13.578,04 13.850,54 UK 19.006,40 18.755,80 19.410,87 20.172,31 20.966,33 21.357,35 REU15 12.822,71 13.430,03 14.044,85 14.776,88 15.497,13 15.807,40 EU10 7.473,35 7.579,32 7.724,51 7.882,53 8.089,63 8.215,19 USA, Japan 14.532,59 15.032,94 15.539,83 16.157,01 16.817,92 17.147,34 Source: TREMOVE, own calculations.
Annual fuel costs are also implemented exogenously into the model as calculated from the TREMOVE database. The respective values for the model periods which are incorporated at constant year-2000 prices are reported in Table 3.18. Obviously, average annual fuel costs deviate by more between the different EU countries. These relatively large differences are due to the large range of road fuel resource costs between the
- 53 - considered regions. Annual average fuel costs are largest in NL and REU15 while they are more moderate in DE and ES. Not surprisingly, fuel costs in the EU10 region are the cheapest in the EU25.
Table 3.18 Baseline average annual fuel costs at constant prices (in €)
2000 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022-30
DE 360,20 333,40 313,40 291,14 276,24 270,85 ES 354,11 335,65 323,03 304,40 290,13 284,36 FR 382,15 350,81 330,57 308,62 295,68 291,48 IT 440,88 422,05 400,55 377,39 360,01 353,25 NL 585,09 546,12 507,74 469,25 446,67 440,61 UK 437,02 405,07 379,39 352,75 336,39 330,78 REU15 545,48 511,78 476,95 436,53 408,67 399,47 EU10 199,35 188,47 179,17 169,78 163,22 160,72 USA, Japan 424,11 396,15 372,60 346,53 328,93 322,70 Source: TREMOVE, own calculations.
All other costs that are accrued in passenger transportation are also adopted in PACE-T. Such costs include all other fixed and variable resource costs, fixed and variable taxes, and fixed and variable VAT from the TREMOVE demand table that has not been taken into account so far. As before these costs and their components are calculated as weighted averages for the different car types on an annual basis. Table 3.17 reports the development of the annual average costs for the representative passenger car during the baseline. Similar to average annual fuel costs all other costs vary much more between the different regions. While the UK and NL have relatively high costs those in ES and FR are more moderate within the EU15. Again average costs in the EU10 region amount to less than half of the costs in the other countries.
Table 3.19 Baseline average annual other costs (in €)
2000 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022-30
DE 2.787,89 2.792,97 2.868,32 2.982,81 3.117,28 3.186,85 ES 1.536,24 1.564,37 1.611,14 1.645,04 1.699,42 1.733,61 FR 2.787,28 2.730,19 2.763,52 2.823,17 2.927,84 2.989,67 IT 1.976,15 2.060,06 2.116,56 2.185,99 2.272,40 2.318,93 NL 2.923,48 3.083,57 3.231,94 3.364,51 3.497,55 3.565,27 UK 3.440,96 3.431,28 3.456,66 3.516,15 3.631,89 3.701,55 REU15 2.734,00 2.734,00 2.832,69 2.951,04 3.107,59 3.187,23 EU10 931,36 896,95 945,91 967,34 983,90 994,56 USA 2.991,35 3.148,95 3.150,94 3.195,78 3.292,21 3.350,40 JAP 2.883,21 3.047,93 3.055,93 3.107,42 3.208,33 3.268,11 Source: TREMOVE, own calculations.
- 54 -
Finally, PACE-T reproduces the price path for fuel which was again calculated from fuel consumption weighted by the respective fuel prices in accordance to TREMOVE. All assumptions on price and cost developments affect the future macroeconomic outcome. Therefore, the initial assumption of a steady-state growth path is slightly relaxed and the growth of the macroeconomic variables will slightly deviate from steady-state growth. The development of the macroeconomic variables in the EU10, EU15 and EU25 along the baseline transition path22 is reported in Table 3.18. Note that the values are normalised to the year-2000 values. On first sight it becomes obvious that almost all macroeconomic variables grow to a slightly lower extent than under steady-state growth. The explanation is straightforward. Due to the increase of car purchase costs, fuel prices and other costs during the baseline the increase in transport demand is dampened over time. In 2020, transport demand in the EU countries is expected to be 51% in the EU10 and 52% in the EU15 and EU25 above the year-2000 level. This is equivalent to an average yearly growth rate of approximately 2.1%. Real consumption increases to a somewhat larger extent during the baseline since there are no exogenous assumptions about cost developments (in contrast to passenger transport). The rise in investment and capital stocks is in a similar range with average annual growth rates ranging between 2.0% and 2.2%. Note that in the EU10 the development is more dampened since consumption demand grows more moderately over time than in the other two regions. Very interesting is the baseline development for car exports and imports which impressively reflects the assumed differences in car purchase costs for the representative car in the considered regions. Car exports in the EU15 and EU25 in 2020 are approximately 40% above the year-2000 value, i.e. on average car exports grow by approximately 1.8% annually. In contrast car exports in the EU10 increase by 64% until 2020. This corresponds to an annual growth rate of 2.5%. Of course the larger rise in car exports in the EU10 is due to the fact that cars from the EU10 are much cheaper than those from other regions. Accordingly, the rise in car imports in the EU10 is remarkably lower than in the other two regions. Thus in 2020 car imports in the EU10 are 40% above the year-2000 imports. Over the same time the EU15 and EU25 experience increases in car imports of 50% and 49%, respectively. Again this development is due to the relative differences in car purchase costs. Since purchase costs in the EU15 and EU25 exceed those in the EU10 by far and even increase to a larger extent during the baseline car imports are positively affected so that we observe a larger growth rate over time in the first two regions.
22 The last reporting year is chosen to be the year 2020 since this corresponds to the final year in TREMOVE.
- 55 -
Table 3.20 Baseline macroeconomic development relative to 2000 (index=1,0000 in 2000)
2000 2006 2010 2014 2018 2020 Transport Demand EU25 1,0000 1,1354 1,2378 1,3540 1,4690 1,5230 EU15 1,0000 1,1342 1,2391 1,3563 1,4724 1,5251 EU10 1,0000 1,1433 1,2294 1,3373 1,4453 1,5087 Real Consumption EU25 1,0000 1,1398 1,2463 1,3625 1,4878 1,5519 EU15 1,0000 1,1402 1,2468 1,3632 1,4887 1,5527 EU10 1,0000 1,1295 1,2311 1,3434 1,4633 1,5295 Investment EU25 1,0000 1,1275 1,2350 1,3514 1,4752 1,5369 EU15 1,0000 1,1294 1,2362 1,3530 1,4777 1,5389 EU10 1,0000 1,0742 1,2012 1,3060 1,4040 1,4771 Capital Stock EU25 1,0000 1,1416 1,2455 1,3602 1,4855 1,5506 EU15 1,0000 1,1421 1,2463 1,3612 1,4870 1,5522 EU10 1,0000 1,1287 1,2232 1,3297 1,4417 1,5040 Car Exports EU25 1,0000 1,0558 1,2399 1,3242 1,3644 1,4250 EU15 1,0000 1,0593 1,2278 1,3164 1,3548 1,4147 EU10 1,0000 1,1315 1,3267 1,4845 1,5711 1,6441 Car Imports EU25 1,0000 1,1041 1,2544 1,3772 1,4260 1,4874 EU15 1,0000 1,1062 1,2668 1,3891 1,4405 1,5027 EU10 1,0000 1,1146 1,1440 1,3041 1,3450 1,4041 Exports EU25 1,0000 1,2317 1,3337 1,4475 1,5781 1,6506 EU15 1,0000 1,2158 1,3188 1,4331 1,5629 1,6356 EU10 1,0000 1,2450 1,3409 1,4523 1,5752 1,6360 Imports EU25 1,0000 1,1286 1,2452 1,3597 1,4758 1,5351 EU15 1,0000 1,1264 1,2415 1,3560 1,4726 1,5317 EU10 1,0000 1,1560 1,2692 1,3842 1,5019 1,5701 Real GDP EU25 1,0000 1,1086 1,2172 1,3330 1,4595 1,5263 EU15 1,0000 1,1069 1,2149 1,3307 1,4571 1,5239 EU10 1,0000 1,1625 1,2870 1,4044 1,5339 1,6006 Productivity EU25 1,0000 0,9965 0,9950 0,9935 0,9915 0,9903 EU15 1,0000 0,9970 0,9955 0,9941 0,9923 0,9911 EU10 1,0000 0,9850 0,9830 0,9787 0,9717 0,9707 Real Wage Rate EU25 1,0000 0,9779 0,9847 0,9837 0,9786 0,9743 EU15 1,0000 0,9784 0,9853 0,9845 0,9795 0,9752 EU10 1,0000 0,9606 0,9638 0,9582 0,9466 0,9421 Real Interest Rate EU25 1,0000 0,9813 0,9916 0,9932 0,9911 0,9886 EU15 1,0000 0,9815 0,9916 0,9932 0,9911 0,9887 EU10 1,0000 0,9758 0,9900 0,9920 0,9902 0,9883 Disposable Income EU25 1,0000 1,1374 1,2563 1,3771 1,5055 1,5719 EU15 1,0000 1,1382 1,2569 1,3779 1,5066 1,5731 EU10 1,0000 1,1153 1,2357 1,3517 1,4707 1,5347 Tax Revenues EU25 1,0000 1,0900 1,1525 1,2561 1,3808 1,4506 EU15 1,0000 1,0893 1,1509 1,2543 1,3790 1,4487 EU10 1,0000 1,1048 1,1881 1,2969 1,4202 1,4940 Source: Calculations of PACE-T.
Exports and imports of other commodities deviate only slightly from the steady-growth path. The baseline results indicate that in all EU countries exports increase to a larger
- 56 - extent than imports. This underlines the importance of exports in the EU. The development of real GDP for most reflects the growth paths for the different variables explained above. All in all, real GDP in the EU is expected to increase by 60% until 2020. This equals an annual average growth rate of 2.4%. In the EU15 and EU25 GDP growth is more moderate. In both regions real GDP in 2020 is about 52% above the year-2000 value, i.e. these regions face an average annual growth rate of about 2.1%. Productivity (measured as labour productivity) only slightly changes during the baseline. There is a small negative trend which is due to the fact that PACE-T assumes labour supply to be exogenous and to increase by the exogenously set annual growth rate of 2.3%. This negative trend implies that output growth is lower than growth in labour supply during the baseline path. The same development is reflected in the path for the real wage rate (marginal product of labour) and the real interest rate (marginal product of capital). Finally, the disposable income of the representative agent increases very similarly to real consumption demand. In 2020 this means an increase of 54% in the EU10 and approximately 55% in the EU15 and EU25 relative to the year 2000. Tax revenues are expected to increase somewhat moderately by 49% in the EU10 and by 45% in the EU15 and EU25 over the baseline path.
3.3 FORCAR Baseline
Among the input data supplied by IEEP, TNO and Task A the different FORCAR- simulations are based on the B&D FORECAST data-pool which harks back to own uprisings as well as to data of organisations like VDA or EUROSTAT. Main parameters for the simulations are output figures of the OEM and supplier, for example employment figures and labour costs of companies in the countries of EU15, EU10 and Eastern and South Eastern European NON-EU-States. Basis of the FORCAR-baseline-scenario are the long term model-policy of all car- manufacturer up to 2020 and as a result from that the production plans including lot sizes and plant locations. FORCAR delivers that information on a worldwide basis. For the baseline-scenario all past and future production in European plants is considered. The actual production values and the forecast values are summed up and aggregated to EU25- and NON-EU-European-states. For reasons of illustration the EU25 data are divided into EU15- and EU10-states additionally. Furthermore all production values are allocated to the considered segments (SMALL-, MEDIUM, and LARGE-cars). Beyond that the number of employees of the car-manufacturer and supplier industry of all European countries have been elevated and aggregated to EU15, EU10 and EU25 as
- 57 - well as to NON-EU-states. Thereby the FORCAR simulation measures the average costs per employee per region.
3.3.1 Initial position of Baseline-scenario An increasing cost pressure means it is important for car manufacturer to cut down production costs. Therefore the question of the cheapest production site is fundamental. Only a “healthy cost structure” will guarantee a strong market position in the future. Analyzing the car-manufacturers future plans of production shows a shift of production within the EU25 from west to east. Based on the development of car production and the development of cost structure within the considered regions the baseline-scenario simulates the expected shift of production until 2020 caused by the cost pressure. Marginal conditions of the development of costs between the EU25 and the NON-EU- states are defined as follows: FORCAR-simulation agrees to expertises and reports of approved economic research institutes. Starting from these forecasts a most expected scenario has been built.
• Increase of per capita income in EU25 states: 2 percent per year (average)
• Increase of per capita income in NON-EU states: 8 percent per year (average)
• Economic growth in NON-EU states: 6 percent per year (average)
• Rise in productivity in EU25 states: 1 percent per year (average)
• Rise in productivity in NON-EU states: 3 percent per year (average)
3.3.2 Conclusions of FORCAR-Baseline-scenario The analysis of the structure in the automotive industry shows that the automobile industry already has started to shift plants to Eastern Europe ten years before the process of the EU extension from EU15 to EU25 has been started. During phase one, up to the year 2000 Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic stood in the foreground of start-ups in Eastern Europe. In the second still lasting phase, countries as Romania, Ukraine or Russia get into the focus. The extension of the EU therefore creates an accelerated growth of the automotive industry in the EU10 and NON EU- member-states in Eastern Europe and simultaneously leads to negative growth in the EU15. Important financial and investment decisions have already been taken i.e. by Volkswagen, Opel, Hyundai/Kia or PSA Peugeot-Citroen and Toyota. The aforementioned have built up or extended their plants in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary or
- 58 - the Czech Republic. As an example, only the plant of PSA-Toyota in Kollin (Czech Republic) has a capacity of 800.000 vehicles per year. Additionally PSA built up a plant in Trnava (Slovakia) with a capacity of 300.000 vehicles per year. Hyundai set up a plant in Zilina (Slavakia) with a capacity of 200.000 vehicles per year. In sum the total production capacity in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic of approximately 1.200.000 vehicles per year in 2002 has nearly doubled in 2006 and will step up during the next years. The following chart shows the movement of plants from EU15 to EU10 during the last years.
Figure 3.3: Movement of car-manufacturer to EU10 states
EU-Erweiterungs-Staaten und Autohersteller
VW-Pozan (Ausbau) Neu: 2003: T 5 Produktion VW, Audi, Skoda 2004: Nachfolge Caddy Bis 2006: 600 Mio € Invest Poznan
Toyota Opel Jelcz-Laskowice Gliwice bei Breslau ab 2005: Warschau 150.000 Dieselmotoren Polen Fiat Deutschland Biesko Biale Tichy Skoda Daewoo Mlada Boleslav, Tschechien Lubin Kvasiny, Zeran Vrchlabi Slowakei Citroen Nysa Peugeot-Toyota Kolin Audi (ab 2005: 300.000 Ungarn Fzge) Györ Opel Hyundai-Kia PSA-Trnava Szentgotthard Žilina Ab: 2006 Suzuzki (ab 2006: 200.000 VW Fzge) 300.000 Fzge Esztergom Bratislava
Source: B&D Forecast
The production shift from EU15 to EU10 respectively East European NON-EU countries can not only be noticed in car production by OEM but in a more clearly way in the supplier industry. Additional capacities are almost exclusively set up in countries outside the EU15 in the East European area. So more than 140.000 jobs are provided in EU15 and NON-EU countries in Eastern Europe (in 2004: EU10: 82.000 / NON-EU: 60.000). Table 3.21 summarizes the development of car-production in the baseline-scenario within the EU25 and the NON-EU states.
- 59 -
Table 3.21: Car-production in EU25- and NON-EU-states
2000 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Production in EU25 16.243.598 16.070.550 16.154.631 17.353.451 17.235.554 17.899.700 therefrom in EU15 14.836.122 14.817.654 14.770.222 14.439.166 14.438.563 14.863.042 therefrom in EU10 1.407.476 1.252.896 1.384.409 2.914.285 2.796.991 3.036.658 Production in NON-EU 1.092.979 1.137.785 1.478.405 2.040.100 2.213.650 2.325.500 Source: FORCAR
Table 3.22: Production of cars EU25 – split EU15 vs. EU10
Production inside EU25
20.000.000
16.000.000
12.000.000
8.000.000 cars produced per year per produced cars 4.000.000
- 2000 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Production in EU25 therefrom in EU15 therefrom in EU10
Source: FORCAR
Explanatory note: Supplier-industry Today, supplier industry in Western Europe approximately has a share of 75% of production value of a car. The remaining 25% accrue to the carmaker. With an added value rate reaching 75 percent the supplier industry defines a major economic and job potential in the automotive industry. Supplier, component- and power-train-production hold the biggest part of added value in that branch
Table 3.23: Assumed shares of car production values to supplier and carmaker
2002 2008 2012 2020
OEM 30% 25% 20% 20% Supplier 70% 75% 80% 80% Source. B&D Forecast
- 60 -
The location-benefit of the EU10 and NON-EU-Eastern Europe countries are revealed by analysing the cost structure of an automotive supplier. Main cost-positions account for preliminary products and materials on the one hand as well as for personnel costs on the other hand. The initial investment as measured by write offs – which amounts only 6 percent of the cost accounting - is of minor importance. This is one reason why the investment-aid-payments - on the requirement of the EU- structural policy - could not delay the shift of production into EU10 or NON-EU-East European countries.
Table 3.24: Cost-structure of automotive supplier
Source: B&D Forecast
3.3.2.1 Comparison of labour costs
Table 3.25: Comparison of labour costs per year / car-manufacturer industry
2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Costs per employee EU25 (avg.) in EUR 49.679 51.632 56.795 61.339 71.153 Costs per employee NON-EU (avg.) in EUR 3.596 4.083 5.396 7.667 12.574 Source: FORCAR
- 61 -
Today we see a strong difference between average of labour cost at car-manufacturer industry in EU25 and NON-EU-countries. Labour costs in NON-EU-countries nowadays come up to only 8% of EU25 average value. We assume an increase in labour cost in NON-EU up to 22,5% of EU25 value in 2020.
Figure 3.4: Cost per employee at car-manufacturer EU25 vs. NON-EU
80.000
70.000
60.000
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
Costs employeeper (yearly) in€ 10.000
0 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Costs per Employee EU 25 Costs per Employee NON-EU
Source: FORCAR.
Also the supplier industry today shows a great gap in labour costs between EU25 average value and the NON-EU-countries. Overall the income level at the supplier- industry is much lower than at car-manufacturer due to the fact that supplier companies employ a larger number of unskilled worker. But even here we see the same increase in labour costs in NON-EU-countries until 2020.
Table 3.26: Comparison of labour costs per year / supplier industry
2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Costs per employee EU25 (avg.) in EUR 37.363 39.270 40.841 42.475 45.873 Costs per employee NON-EU (avg.) in EUR 2.705 3.105 4.247 5.819 10.321 Source: FORCAR
Also the supplier industry today shows a great gap in labour costs between EU25 average value and the NON-EU-countries. Overall the income level at the supplier- industry is much lower than at car-manufacturer due to the fact that supplier companies
- 62 - employ a larger number of unskilled worker. But even here we see the same increase in labour costs in NON-EU-countries until 2020.
Figure 3.5: Cost per employee at supplier industry EU25 vs. NON-EU
50.000
45.000
40.000
35.000
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000 Costsemployee per (yearly) in €
5.000
- 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Costs per Employee EU 25 Costs per Employee NON-EU
Source. FORCAR
3.3.2.2 Results of production values and number of employees in Baseline-scenario A report of the production and model policy data of the FORCAR-system delivers a forecast of production value within plants in EU25 member-states and European NON- EU states. Figure 6 shows that car production in both considered regions will grow in the forecast period. Whereas we have saturated car markets in Western Europe we will have growing markets in Eastern Europe. One major strong growing market is the Russian market. Furthermore we see a strong increase in Turkey. So it could be interesting for car-manufacturer to shift production from EU25 to new emerging countries and markets independent of cost advantages. Analysing the EU25 production forecast (see: blue line) it must be pointed out that apart from emerging markets in Eastern Europe many of the cars produced inside EU25 will be exported. Especially European premium-brands (see chapter premium- vs. volume- brands) have major sales markets overseas.
- 63 -
Figure 3.6: Production of cars EU25 vs. NON-EU
Production of cars EU25 vs. NON-EU
20.000.000
16.000.000
12.000.000
8.000.000
cars produced per year per produced cars 4.000.000
- 2000 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Production in EU25 Production in NON-EU
Source: FORCAR
Figure 3.7: Number of employees at car-manufacturer (Baseline-scenario) – EU25 vs. NON-EU
2.500.000
2.000.000
1.500.000
1.000.000
500.000 Employees car-makers - Total - car-makers Employees
0 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Persons empl. in EU25 Persons empl. NON-EU
Source: FORCAR
Figure 3.10 show a decrease of employees in the period between 2008/2009 and 2020 although car-production is still growing (besides EU25 value 2012) in the same period.
- 64 -
That is no contradiction. Car-manufacturer more and more build cars on shared platforms and with shared non-variable parts. In order to handle strong rising numbers of new models and derivates with decreasing lot sizes that method of production is existential. So productivity is rising in order to keep costs per car down. Automation on assembly lines is still growing. So less worker will produce more cars in the wake of streamlining car-production.
Table 3.27: Development of production and employees at car-manufacturer – EU25 vs. NON-EU
2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020 Production in EU25 16.070.550 16.154.631 17.353.451 17.235.554 17.899.700 Persons empl. in EU25 1.881.510 1.903.600 1.966.216 1.895.978 1.823.182 Production NON-EU 1.137.785 1.478.405 2.040.100 2.213.650 2.325.500 Persons empl. NON-EU 616.300 625.000 770.052 766.569 745.649 Source: FORCAR
Table 3.28: Employees at car-manufacturer by segment and region
SEGMENT REGION 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020 LARGE EU25 235.211 293.193 340.282 340.833 318.972 NON-EU 104.939 145.422 171.479 173.111 179.334 MEDIUM EU25 994.545 952.493 948.900 919.141 871.245 NON-EU 456.476 405.302 444.532 476.619 447.037 SMALL EU25 651.754 657.914 677.033 636.004 632.965 NON-EU 54.885 74.276 154.041 116.839 119.278 Source: FORCAR
Partly that process of streamlining production can be transferred to the supplier industry. But the grade of automation in the supplier industry is significant lower than at car-makers business. More handcraft and a higher number of unskilled workers let labour costs play a major role in the supplier industry. So regarding to that fact the barriers for shifting production into low costs countries are significant lower. Figure 3.11 underlines that effects by a falling curve (blue line) of employees in EU25 states and a rising curve (red line) for employees in NON-EU-countries. Due to a cost advantage of EU10 states compared with EU15 states (as mentioned before) a good portion of production and jobs is shifted from EU15 to EU10 states. That means it stays inside EU25. Otherwise without that cost advantage the blue curve would decrease much stronger and the red curve would increase adequate. Moreover it is a fact that supplier very often follow car-manufacturer to new regions for logistic reasons (just-in- time or just-in-sequence production). A good example is the Smart-production in Hambach / France where suppliers are integrated into the production process itself. Other examples show that car-manufacturer have built up supplier parks near to their plants. In contrast to that we have supplier which went forward to Ukraine or other East
- 65 -
European countries, for example producer of wiring harnesses a product that is very labour cost intensive but easy to ship back to EU25.
Figure 3.8: Number of employees at supplier-industry (Baseline-scenario) – EU25 vs. NON-EU
900.000
800.000
700.000
600.000
500.000
400.000
300.000
200.000
Employees supplier industry - Total industry supplier Employees 100.000
- 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Persons empl. in EU25 BASE Persons empl. NON-EU
- 66 -
4 Scenario Building
4.1 Description of the methodology for Policy Scenario building
The methodology followed for the analysis of the impacts of the various policy scenario is composed by 3 steps:
• Building of a cost curve for CO2 targets for M1 vehicles only, including sensitivity analysis and variants
• Building of a cost curve for alternative technical and non-technical measures as identified and analysed by task A, as far as it is possible to analyse the measures with TREMOVE.
• Definition of policy scenarios including both M1 and Integrated Approach measures, for the further analysis with TREMOVE of the effects on transport demand, vehicle stock, emissions and welfare. As specified in the Technical Annex, TREMOVE runs have been performed by KUL- TML out of the scope of the present contract. The full details on the TREMOVE runs specifications and results can be found in the final report of KUL contract23 as well as on the website www.tremove.org.
4.1.1 Building of the cost curve for passenger cars (M1) As a first step, a cost curve has been build implementing alternative targets for M1. As further described in section 4.2., four scenarios have been run using the cost curve assumptions from [Task A] looking at 135, 130, 125 and 120 g CO2/km by 2012. To reflect the potential impact of measures influencing demand on the compliance costs of a given target and the fact that costs may in fine be lower than ex-ante estimates, alternative scenarios have been built for M1 vehicles: use of a different relative upsizing assumption (cost -19% by 2012), and – in addition – alternative cost curve building (-17% by 2012, or -33% once combined with relative upsizing assumption). The costs considered for a measure are the costs for society, equivalent to the sum of consumer surplus, producer surplus and the marginal cost of public funding. This implies that the tax savings for the consumer (from fuel excise duties of the fuel saved) have to be compensated under a hypothesis of constant fiscal revenues for the public
23 Transport and Mobility Leuven (2006) Further development and application of the TREMOVE transport model – Lot 3: Simulation of the policy packages. Final Report Contract N° 070501/2004/387327/MAR/C1 with KUL, to be published (ww.tremove.org).
- 67 - budget. The metric used is the net present value by 2010 of the sum of the cost to society over the period 2010-2020, with discount rate of 4%.
This process allows building a reference equivalent to g CO2/km for the renewed strategy. The cumulated Well-toWheel (WTW) CO2 equivalent emissions in the period 2010-2020 are used to reflect the long term effects of the policy measures envisaged.24
For GHG other than CO2, an equivalence relation will be used (CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x
CH4 + 296 x N2O). While the reference equivalent, expressed in Mill. tons CO2eq saved, will be used for the purpose of building the policy scenarios, the use of g CO2/km will be maintained wherever possible for reasons of consistency, accuracy and compatibility with the Community objective.
4.1.2 Assessing the costs and reduction potential of other measures For the measures identified in [Task A], the scope for GHG abatement and the cost- effectiveness has been assessed when possible using the model TREMOVE. The detailed assessment for each measure is provided in section 4.3. Ranking the measure by decreasing cost-effectiveness allows building a cost curve segment that can be combined with the M1 cost curve to determine the cost-optimal contribution of each individual measure. The above analysis does not fully prejudge of the final design of the scenarios, as cost- effectiveness is not the unique criteria. For the further establishment of the policy scenarios, focus must be given to those options that are "clearly measurable, with timetables for delivery, and identify the stakeholder responsible for delivering them. There should be a mechanism for monitoring progress and ensuring accountability", inline with CARS21's final report recommendation n°7.25 The report provides therefore, based on [Task A] and on literature survey, the assessment of criteria complementary to cost-effectiveness, such as measurability, monitorability, accountability, as well as political feasibility, affordability of cars, promotion of technical innovation and fairness.
4.1.3 Defining Policy Scenarios On the basis of the individual assessment of the measures, comprehensive policy scenarios providing a similar abatement of GHG over the period 2010-2020 will be defined for the analysis with TREMOVE. This is described in Chapter 5.
24 The measures envisaged must however be feasible and deliver reductions in a shorter time horizon (2012), so as to ensure that the modelling refers to realistic measures in the timeframe considered 25 Available at http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/automotive/pagesbackground/competitiveness/cars21finalreport.pdf
- 68 -
4.2 Technical options to reduce fuel consumption from passenger cars
The most promising/likely technological options at M1 vehicle level (from a large spectrum at the level of the engine, power train and vehicle) to be applied in the 2002- 2012 period have been analysed in detail in the [Task A] report, deriving cost curves that have been translated into input for TREMOVE. The assessment is based on six different cost curves (for small, medium and large petrol resp. diesel vehicles). The
TREMOVE baseline includes the assumption that the 140 g CO2/km target for average new car CO2 emissions will be reached by ACEA, JAMA & KAMA following the least cost solution per association by 2008/9 as provided by [Task A]. Going beyond 140 g
CO2/km towards 120 g CO2/km, the cost and abatement target per vehicle category depend on the target-measure combination selected. In the present report, as agreed with the Commission and Task A consultants, the central hypothesis to assess the costs is based on the instrument referred to in [Task A] as "application of a percentage reduction target at manufacturer level".26 It is worth showing that the selection of an alternative instrument for reaching the same overall target would have a deep impact on the costs for individual vehicle categories, even with the coarse vehicle classification used by TREMOVE. This is shown by Table 4.1:
Table 4.1: Percentage variation in vehicle purchase cost for reaching average 120g/km by 2012, depending of target-measure combination target: measure: pS pM pL dS dM dL percentage reduction each car 12.4% 7.9% 5.5% 12.9% 11.1% 9.5% optimised utility based CO2-curve each car 20.1% 8.8% 11.9% 13.3% 6.1% 13.8% (pan area = l*w) optimised utility based CO2-curve each car 19.1% 8.9% 8.0% 13.9% 7.9% 11.3% (V2/3*P1/3) uniform target each car 2.5% 11.6% 18.9% -0.4% 12.2% 33.8% utility based CO2-curve (pan area each car 14.1% 9.5% 13.6% 8.2% 7.5% 18.2% = l*w) 2/3 1/3 utility based CO2-curve (V *P ) each car 22.4% 8.6% 6.8% 17.2% 7.4% 9.2% percentage reduction per 18.1% 9.6% 8.0% 10.3% 7.8% 7.3% manufacturer optimised utility based CO2-curve per 17.1% 10.1% 9.9% 9.3% 7.9% 8.5% (pan area = l*w) manufacturer optimised utility based CO2-curve per 17.3% 10.1% 9.3% 9.5% 7.9% 8.2% (V2/3*P1/3) manufacturer uniform target per 15.8% 10.8% 12.4% 8.5% 8.2% 10.5% manufacturer utility based CO2-curve (pan area per 16.7% 10.3% 10.5% 9.1% 7.9% 9.0% = l*w) manufacturer 2/3 1/3 utility based CO2-curve (V *P ) per 17.5% 10.0% 8.9% 9.7% 7.9% 8.0% manufacturer
26 This is used as a proxy to derive the possible overall costs of a given CO2 target, but does not in any way prejudge of the type of instrument that would in fine be proposed to establish a fuel efficiency framework for light duty vehicles
- 69 - target: measure: pS pM pL dS dM dL percentage reduction per 13.9% 8.6% 6.0% 11.6% 9.9% 8.8% manufacturer incl. trading optimised utility based CO2-curve per 40.5% 5.7% 5.7% 30.0% 0.3% 1.1% (pan area = l*w) manufacturer incl. trading optimised utility based CO2-curve per 31.7% 6.9% 1.6% 24.9% 5.3% 1.4% (V2/3*P1/3) manufacturer incl. trading uniform target per -3.8% 11.1% 15.4% -6.4% 11.3% 22.1% manufacturer incl. trading utility based CO2-curve (pan area per 13.0% 9.1% 11.7% 7.4% 7.1% 14.2% = l*w) manufacturer incl. trading 2/3 1/3 utility based CO2-curve (V *P ) per 21.4% 8.1% 5.6% 15.8% 7.0% 7.4% manufacturer incl. trading
It is worth noting that the target-measure combination selected has an effect on the specific vehicle category of small petrol cars, where reaching 120g/km would mean 18% increase in vehicle purchase cost (see Figure 4.1)
Figure 4.1: Percentage variation in vehicle purchase cost for reaching alternative targets by 2020 – Target-Measure combination: percentage reduction per manufacturer
190
180
170
160
150
140
130 CO2-emission g/km
120
110
100
90 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Additional retail price (€)
Small-Petrol Medium-Petrol Large-Petrol Small-Diesel Medium-Diesel Large-Diesel Source. TREMOVE
- 70 -
4.2.1 TREMOVE modelling 4 scenarios have been modelled in a first stage with TREMOVE by KUL/TML. They correspond to the following runs available on www.tremove.org:
• D20 135g M1
• D21 130g M1
• D22 125g M1
• D23 120g M1
Using the data available on the output pivot table WELFARE (sheets CS+PS and Cost- effectiveness), it is possible to calculate the net present value of the welfare impact over the period 2010-2020. Regarding the marginal cost of public funding the revenue recycling option corresponds to a variation of general taxation to compensate for the variation in vehicle and fuel taxation resulting from the implementation of the scenario. The results are presented in Table 4.2:
Table 4.2: Welfare impact of alternative 2012 scenarios at M1 vehicle level – Task A core hypothesis
M€, NPV 2010-2020 D20 D21 D22 D23 Sum of Consumer + Producter surplus 4,299 1,313 -5,644 -17,147 - caused by fix resource cost -18,229 -42,586 -70,192 -101,779 - caused by var resource cost 10,458 20,754 30,923 41,055 - caused by fix tax -692 -1,626 -2,697 -3,923 - caused by var tax 11,499 22,859 34,085 43,506 - caused by VAT on fix res cost -2,043 -4,777 -7,876 -11,070 - caused by VAT on var res cost 3,391 6,734 10,037 12,810 - caused by network cost 0 0 -0 -0 - caused by other costs -0 -0 -0 -1 - caused by in-vehicle time price -84 -51 46 226 - caused by waiting time price -3 -5 -6 -5 - from other effects 3 13 36 2,034 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -9,444 -18,855 -28,182 -37,529 Sum of Welfare (general) -5,145 -17,542 -33,826 -54,677 Source: TREMOVE
The TREMOVE modelling provides both Well-to-Tank and exhaust emissions of the three greenhouse gases included in the analysis, taking into account the biofuel blending percentage of the baseline (see Chapter 3). From this data it is possible to derive a cost- curve for M1, giving the welfare cost per ton of GHG reduced over the period 2010- 2020 (Table 4.3).
- 71 -
It is essential to insist on the fact that the results differ from the ex-ante calculations provided by [Task A] because in TREMOVE the fuel efficiency improvements and the related increase in car retail cost savings lead to a chain of effect on overall (passenger road) transport demand, variation in car sales and stock (including shifts between categories).
Table 4.3: GHG emissions (2010-2020) and cost-effectiveness of alternative 2012 scenarios at M1 vehicle level – Task A core hypothesis
Tons 2010-2020 D20 D21 D22 D23 Sum of CH4 exhaust -15 -88 -190 -326
Sum of CO2 exhaust -90,609,751 -182,051,234 -273,681,726 -366,127,304
Sum of N2O exhaust 269 176 -130 -672
Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -6,316 -12,641 -18,931 -25,261
Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -11,898,414 -23,889,019 -35,887,976 -47,986,345
Sum of N2O well_to_tank -3,024 -6,078 -9,118 -12,195
Net Welfare M€ -5,145 -17,542 -33,826 -54,677
CO2 eq WtW Mt -103 -208 -313 -419 Cost-effectiveness €/t 49.73 84.34 108.16 130.65 Source: TREMOVE
4.2.2 Sensitivity analysis with respect to autonomous weight increase The combined evolution of manufacturers' offer and of consumer demand of safer, more powerful, bigger and more comfortable cars has resulted in a substantial increase of the average new car weight. Additional vehicle weight results in additional fuel consumption and associated CO2 emissions which need to be compensated by additional
CO2-reducing measures to meet the CO2 emission targets for 2008/9 and 2012. Two alternative scenarios have been considered as regards the future evolution of the weight of cars sold in the EU: On the basis of historic trends, it could be assumed that the average weight of passenger cars will carry on increasing on average by 1.5% p.a. between 2002 and 2012. The 1.5% p.a. value results from the data used to monitor the achievements of the car industry in relation to their voluntary commitment for reaching the target of 140 g CO2/km by 2008/9. It is applied uniformly to all vehicle segments, in the absence of data showing a clear shift towards larger car segments. The 1.5% p.a. value is assumed to include effects of measures to improve safety and reduce exhaust emissions in response to voluntary approaches such as the EuroNCAP rating, consumer demand for additional safety features or European legislation, as well as market trends towards bigger, more
- 72 - powerful and better equipped cars including increased market penetration of auxiliaries such as power steering, electric windows, air-conditioning etc. Alternatively, it may be argued that the historic trend will not continue at the same pace in the future thanks on the one hand to policy measures (taxation in particular) that influence consumer demand, and on the other hand because the most important safety measures (restraint systems, airbags) are one-offs that have by now been introduced on most new cars, new exhaust emission regulations will be largely met with system optimisations rather than new, additional systems and new auxiliaries will be largely in the realm of electronic equipment with limited weight implications which furthermore tend to become lighter over time. It would then be assumed that the historic value is valid until 2004 and that this value gradually decreases to 0.5% in 2012 in response to a natural slowing down and to measures aimed at driving demand towards fuel efficiency (e.g. taxation). Using the lower relative upsizing scenario, the costs for reaching the 2012 target of 120 g CO2 /km are found to be 19% lower than for the calculations based on the 1.5% p.a. value.
4.2.3 Alternative cost curve methodologies In the supporting study [Task A], cost curves are created based upon the clouds of data points that result from assessing the overall costs and CO2 reduction of a large number of feasible packages of technical measures. In the questionnaire and meetings as part of the stakeholder consultation process, stakeholders have been requested to submit information on their assessments of overall costs and CO2 reduction potential of feasible packages but such data have not been provided – the data provided only referred to individual technical measures. Cost curves have been drawn up by [Task A] and follow the curvature of the outer envelope of the “cloud” of data points at a certain distance that serves as a "safety margin". Two options are envisaged: In the first option, the cost curves is positioned in such a way that roughly 2/3 of the data points is on the left side of the curve and 1/3 on the right side. This is based on the conservative assumption that the overall CO2 reduction factor achieved by a given package of technical options would be lower than the product of the individual potential
CO2 reduction factors, while the cost of the said package would strictly be the sum of the costs of the various options in the package. Figure 4.2 shows the influence of the size of the safety margin on the cost curve for medium size petrol vehicles. Similar alternative cost curves can be drawn for the other 5 segments, but no detailed information has been provided from Task A. Overall, the manufacturer costs for reaching the 120 g CO2 /km target are 15% lower with the second option.
- 73 -
Figure 4.2: Assessment of the impact of a different “safety margin” in drawing the cost curves on the costs of CO2 reductions required to meet the 2008/9 and 2012 targets (example for medium petrol vehicle)
Source: TREMOVE
4.2.4 Cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative assumptions The cost curve for M1-vehicles is very sensitive to the assumptions made on the relative upsizing, to the method for building the cost curve as well as to uncertainties in the cost assessment. Three alternative cost hypotheses were implemented in TREMOVE.
• Hypothesis A detailed in section 4.2.1. refers to the yearly 1.5% weight increase based on historic date and supported by ACEA.
• Hypothesis B uses (as provided in [Task A] report section 3.11.3) - an alternative percentage of autonomous weight increase, that leads to a cost for reaching 120g by 2012 18.5% lower than the 1st hypothesis.
• Hypothesis C refers to the alternative method for building the cost curve (as provided in [Task A] report section 3.11.2) providing a further 17% reduction compared to the 2nd hypothesis. Although it would have been technically possible to perform 8 alternative runs to provide the cost-effectiveness for the two alternative cost hypothesis and the 4 alternative 2012 targets, for time constraint reason, it was decided to perform two runs on the 125g target, and apply the consequent changes in welfare and emissions in a proportional way to the remaining 2012 targets. It could be verified performing the remaining runs that the resulting cost-effectiveness would be very close, as only one polynomial set of CO2 abatement and cost increase in introduced in the model in such a simple scenario. The alternative runs D22B and D22C correspond respectively to a 18.5% and 33% abatement in the increase of the vehicle purchase cost as result of the CO2 2012 target.
- 74 -
These runs have been performed by DG Environment and are available on a CIRCA website.27 This leads to the definition of cost “bands” that can be expressed in total costs or in
€/ton (Table 4.4). Each additional reduction by 5 g CO2/km leads to a cumulated Well- to-Wheel (WtW) CO2 equivalent reduction of circa 100 Mt over the period 2010-2020.
Table 4.4: Societal costs, CO2 savings and cost effectiveness of four different reduction scenarios for passenger cars (cumulated over 2010-2020) under 3 cost hypothesis
Hyp. 135 g CO2/km 130 g CO2/km 125 g CO2/km 120 g CO2/km A M€ -5,024.00 -17,071.90 -32,884.30 -53,123.20
Mt CO2 -99.7 -200.5 -301.5 -403.5
€/ton CO2 50.38 85.15 109.07 131.66 B M€ -320.8 -6,113.50 -15,138.20 -27,005.80
Mt CO2 -98.1 -197.3 -296.5 -397.1
€/ton CO2 3.27 30.99 51.06 68.01 C M€ 3,191.40 2,073.60 -1,873.30 -7,464.80
Mt CO2 -96.9 -194.9 -292.7 -392.2
€/ton CO2 -32.92 -10.64 6.4 19.03 Source: TREMOVE
4.3 Integrated Approach measures identified by Task A
4.3.1 Technical options to reduce fuel consumption from light-commercial vehicles
The potential and cost-effectiveness of CO2 reduction measures concerning light commercial vehicles (N1) has been assessed following the same methodology as the one developed for passenger cars (see 4.2), taking into account the specificities of N1 vehicles. For each of the N1 categories Class I, II and III a business-as-usual package
(BAU) has been defined of CO2-reducing options that are assumed to be applied in the period 2002 – 2012 even in the absence of policy aimed at the CO2 emissions of N1- vehicles, as well as four packages with increasing levels of CO2 reduction and technical complexity that may be applied by manufacturers in response to policy. For each of these packages the overall costs and CO2 emission reductions have been assessed.
27 http://forum.europa.eu.int/Members/irc/env/ia_road_vehicle/library?l=/co2_cars
- 75 -
Table 4.5: Cost and abatement hypothesis for N1 vehicles scenarios
CO2 emission Cost Increase N1 Petrol N1 Diesel N1 Petrol N1 Diesel Baseline 209 € 178 € 0 € 0 €
15 g CO2/km reduction 183 € 169 € 747 € 207 €
30 g CO2/km reduction 160 € 159 € 2.617 € 1.021 €
45 g CO2/km reduction 140 € 148 € 5.611 € 2.792 €
60 g CO2/km reduction 122 € 134 € 9.697 € 5.769 €
More details on the modelling is provided in TML report on TREMOVE runs.
4.3.2 Application of fuel efficient mobile air conditioning systems The assessment of the cost-effectiveness of this measure is based on the additional fuel consumption of cars as a function of MAC systems' energy consumption (reflecting the use of more efficient MACs), as well as the cost differences between fuel efficient and conventional MACs and the market shares of fuel efficient systems. The scenario modelled corresponds to a compulsory introduction by 2012 (with 50% by 2010 and 75% by 2011) of fuel efficient mobile air conditioning systems (both improved R134a and new R744 systems) in new cars.
Table 4.6: Cost and abatement hypothesis for MAC scenarios
2010 2011 2012 - 2020 Extra ex-tax retail price new cars € 24 35 19 Relative airco fuel consumption change compared to 2008 -13% -19% -8% - used as input in TREMOVE (Values derived from TNO report) Relative change (in percent) compared to 2008 is used to assure that TREMOVE results in similar absolute change in FC as TNO report
More details on the modelling is provided in TML report on TREMOVE runs.
4.3.3 Options to reduce vehicle and engine resistance factors
The costs and potential for CO2 reductions of low rolling resistance tyres (LRRT), tyre pressure monitoring systems (TPMS) and low viscosity lubricants (LVL) have been analysed based on data retrieved from literature and provided by the industry.
LRRT and TPMS have an important CO2 reduction potential estimated at 3% and 2.5% respectively. However at present there is no standardised method to measure tyres' rolling resistance and on which legislation or incentives could be based. The use of LRRT is reflected under the test-cycle measurements, and there is a need to ensure that the tyres actually fitted on the cars sold present the same rolling resistance performance
- 76 - as the ones used during type approval. On the one hand, the effect of TPMS is however not reflected under the test-cycle measurements, as it relates to real-world driving condition and action by drivers, which raises monitorability concerns; on the other hand, TPMS can contribute to an increased safety. The CO2 reduction potential of LVL is estimated to be 2.5%. Issues identified in relation to LVV are the same as for LRRT regarding the possible discrepancies between test-cycle vehicles and vehicles actually sold, the need for a standardised measurement method and issues linked to vehicle warrantee when using LVL. The assessment of the cost-effectiveness of these measures is based on an improved fuel consumption combined with increased cost purchase or annual maintenance costs, but would affect both new and existing cars, in the case of LVL and LRRT. The scenario modelled corresponds to a compulsory introduction by 2012 (with 50% by 2010 and 75% by 2011) of the device in new cars. An alternative scenario has been designed including purchase incentive and similar marketing solution for both old and new cars, but has not been selected for the model runs actually performed. The cost-effectiveness of the measure is minored by the fact that the devices would anyway penetrate the market in the absence of any measure (and have already done so to some extent). Figure 4.3 provides an illustration of the baseline.
Figure 4.3: Business-as-usual introduction of options to reduce vehicle and engine resistance factors as market share of new cars sold
80% 70% 60% 50% LRRT 40% TPMS, LVL 30% 20% 10% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Task A
The extra car purchase cost for TPMS is 61€, while the extra yearly maintenance costs is 20€ and 21€ for LRRT and LVL respectively. More details on the modelling is provided in TML report on TREMOVE runs.
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4.3.4 Options to promote application of biofuels The measure corresponding to a greater biofuels penetration is modelled evaluating the impact of an additional 1% of blended fuels and pathways, over the period 2005-2020 (the 1% is an illustrative figure which can then be up or down scaled for a given scenario, the assumption being that the costs will not vary very much as a function of the volume of biofuels sold). The cost-effectiveness is calculated based on hypothesis on the cost premium for biofuels and their WtW impacts, taking into account not only
CO2 but also CH4 and N2O. As explained in Chapter 3, the pathway included in the baseline is based on the [JRC2006] WtW study, and represents the likely developments of an EU-based biofuel policy (see Table 3.12). Imports of Brazilian ethanol, that presents higher WtW benefits, have not been taken into consideration. CARS21 identified second generation (ligno- cellulosic) biofuels as a promising way to deliver CO2 reductions in the road transport sector. In the short term the results of [Task A], based on the [JRC2006] WtW study, show that second generation biofuels are unlikely to represent more than a very small share of the biofuels market in the 2010-12 horizon. There are also some uncertainties as regards the time needed to overcome the technical challenges to move from demonstration projects to large scale production, and therefore the time needed to implement measures able to guarantee that second generation biofuels will be available in the time horizon of the strategy review. Against that background, the additional replacement of a given 1% of fossil fuel use (in energy terms) by the use of biofuels is estimated to result in an overall GHG emission reduction for EU15 of 56,0 Mt over the period 2010-2020, resulting of an increase of WtT emissions by 24,2 Mt, and a decrease of TtW emissions of 80,20 Mt. Taking into account the crude oil price assumptions (€50/bbl), the most likely pathway for biofuels still triggers a cost premium. Cost/effectiveness would be situated between 57 and 330 €/t, with a central estimate of 158 €/t.
4.3.5 Fuel efficient driving The promotion of fuel efficient driving via on board equipment (Gear Shift Indicators), driver training and promotion cannot be directly implemented in TREMOVE since the model does not analyse different styles of driving. However such a measure could be modelled by reducing the amount of fuel used by a certain car for a certain trip as a function of vehicles being equipped with GSI, including assumptions on actual use of the devices). This will yield estimates of the decrease in fuel consumption and the costs of the measures.
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The scenario modelled corresponds to:
• a compulsory introduction by 2012 (with 50% by 2010 and 75% by 2011) of the device in new cars.
• 1.50% additional reduction of real-world CO2 emission (TNO(2006) estimates maximal achievable effect at 6%) • Vehicle retail price increase due to e.g gear shift indicator (in 2012 compared to 2008) of 17.4€ 2000 purchase power
More details on the modelling is provided in TML report on TREMOVE runs.
4.3.6 Other measures Some measures initially identified to be included into integrated assessment have been excluded from the impact analysis with TREMOVE, as agreed with the Commission.
• TREMOVE can model the influence of vehicle taxation on CO2 emissions but for a meaningful result, a preliminary modelling of the detailed impact of differentiation schemes (e.g. based on national experiences) has to be carried out. Once this is done (but it is out of the scope of this contract and also of Task A), TREMOVE could
integrate the impact on average price and fuel efficiency/CO2 emissions by vehicle category. However one has to take into account that tax differentiation systems in
force or envisaged are based on individual cars' CO2 emissions or on bands of values, which are not directly compatible with the vehicle categories in TREMOVE and were derived from COPERT. Besides, some systems have a specific focus on company cars, which are not dealt with separately in TREMOVE. For these reasons, it is likely that the impact assessment will have to be based on national case studies, and reflect the outcome of the workshop on car purchase behaviour and environmental impact of company car taxation (20-21 June 2006), rather than modelling. Work under this measure will also reflect the progress made in the adoption of the proposal for a Council Directive on vehicle taxation COM(2005)261, and of the fact that taxation is more a policy instrument than an actual measure.
• Labelling impacts indirectly on CO2 emissions via consumer information, resulting in potential medium-long term indirect impacts on car purchasing behaviour due to
an increased awareness about the impact of car use on CO2 emissions and climate change. However, it cannot be translated into technical parameters e.g. on vehicle technology. Similarly, the use of a label does not have that many broader economic and social implications beyond the cost of the label and implementation throughout dealerships. So far TREMOVE assumes that consumers are perfectly informed about car characteristics and that consumer choices are mainly driven by costs and
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this issue will be thoroughly discussed during the workshop on car purchase behaviour and environmental impact of company car taxation (20-21 June 2006). As
a result, while labelling can overall contribute to improvements in the CO2 emissions of cars, it will not be subject to a specific modelling (besides it is more a policy instrument than an actual measure). • The review of options for application of alternative fuels based on fossil primary energy had been included in the preparatory works for the impact assessment (See [Task A] report) and also discussed in CARS21. Stakeholders in the ECCP working group supported a technology neutral approach, thus rejecting the idea of a specific instrument to promote LPG or CNG cars. In the light of this, LPG or CNG technologies have not been considered separately in option (3) – which does not prevent their use as a technical solution under the instrument to promote technical progress in M1/N1 vehicles, nor Member States from promoting them through fiscal incentives for fuels. • Public procurement provides the opportunity to stimulate the market in alternative cleaner or more fuel efficient vehicle technologies and fuels by creating economies of scale for manufacturers and thereby reducing the costs of production. However, since the recent Commission proposal COM(2005)634 on the promotion of clean
transport vehicles does not address CO2 emissions, public procurement was not included in the detailed analysis of option (3) considering the 2012 horizon of the review. It does not prevent Member States from promoting the purchase of clean and lean vehicles by public procurement.
4.3.7 TREMOVE Model runs and cost-effectiveness analysis In addition to the runs D20 to D23 mentioned in 4.2.1., the following scenarios have been run by TML and are reported at www.tremove.org:
• D24 125g M1 + GSI
• D25 125g M1 + GSI + TPMS
• D26 125g M1 + GSI + TPMS + N1 15g
• D27 125g M1 + GSI + TPMS + N1 15g+ LRRT
• D28 130g M1 + GSI + TPMS + N1 15g + LRRT + MAC
• D29 130g M1 + GSI + TPMS + LRRT + MAC + N1 30g
• D30 130g M1 + GSI + TPMS + LRRT + MAC + N1 30g + LVL
• D31 130g M1 + GSI + TPMS + LRRT + MAC + LVL + N1 45g
• D32 130g M1 + GSI + TPMS + LRRT + MAC + LVL + N1 60g
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The individual cost-effectiveness of each measure can be easily deducted from a combination of the cost-effectiveness analysis of the above runs, as there is no interaction between the measures. As it can be seen in Table 4.7, the cost effectiveness of the measure covers a very wide range, from "negative cost" measures such as GSI and TPMS or N115g to very expensive measures such as going beyond 30g reduction for N1 vehicles. For the former, although some market failures may exist that prevent the installation of such devices or the purchase of fuel efficient vans, it is likely that the result is due to the underestimation of the business-as-usual developments. Therefore the contribution to GHG abatement will certainly be lower than the result of the modelling. Finally, it should be noted that the overall contribution of the 9 measures selected would provide only 272 Mt CO2 eq. over the period 2010-2020, therefore a contribution of M1 vehicle will be in any case part of the design of the scenarios to reach a target equivalent to 120g/km by 2012. This will be further developed in the next chapter.
Table 4.7: GHG emissions (2010-2020) and cost-effectiveness of selected integrated approach individual measures analysed with TREMOVE
Runs combination CO2 eq. 2010-2020 (Mt) Welfare impact Cost/t
GSI D24 - D22 -36.3 4111.3 -113.2 TPMS D25 - D24 -20.4 1532.8 -75.3 N1-15g D26 - D25 -41.5 2646.9 -63.7 LRRT D27 – D26 -16.7 504.7 -30.3 MAC D28 – D21 + D22 – D27 -20.9 -394.7 18.9 N1-30g D29 – D28 -53.3 -3671.0 68.9 LVL D30 – D29 -24.1 -1960.0 81.4
N1-45 D31 – D30 -26.6 -6692.4 252.0 N1-60 D32 – D31 -32.0 -11384.8 356.0
Total -271.6
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5 Analysis of the Scenarios with TREMOVE
5.1 Building the Policy Options
For the options that have been quantitatively assessed in the previous chapter the following overall conclusions can be drawn:
• The abatement costs for reducing CO2 emissions in M1 vehicles through technical measures that improve fuel efficiency on the type approval test are a benchmark for the other measures studied in this report. The abatement costs for reaching a new vehicle sales average of 120 g/km in 2012 range from 18 to 131 €/ tonne. A lower ambition level such as 125 g/km would place the range between 6 and 108 €/tonne. • The results for M1 vehicles are sensitive to the assumptions made on the autonomous weight increase and to various assumptions made in relation to uncertainties in the cost assessment. The more extensive use of economic and consumer information instruments, combined with regulation, would be a critical success factor for keeping the abatement costs near the lower bound, while a conservative business-as-usual scenario would trigger the use of the upper bound of the cost range. • Figure 5.1 below shows the incremental costs and the effectiveness of the various individual measures that can considered for scenario building, as modelled with TREMOVE, including only the highest bound of the M1 cost estimates. It can be seen that some measures other than M1 vehicles improvements, are not cost effective compared with the highest bound of the M1 cost range. From this point of view, the measures to be included in the scenarios include GSI, TPMS, LRRT,
MAC, LVL and N1 up to 30g CO2/km, to the extent that these measures are admissible under the criteria of measurability, monitorability and accountability.
A marginal cost analysis gives similar results. The total cost curves for M1 and Integrated Approach respectively have been calibrated in polynomial functions, so that marginal cost can be simply calculated with the derived function (see Figure 5.2 and Annex 3 for more details). From that perspective, the adequate starting point for considering the introduction of integrated approach measures would be above the point where M1 vehicles reach 130g CO2/km by 2012. Below that point, the other measures would not fill the gap to deliver the same cumulated GHG abatement over the period 2010-2020 in a cost-efficient way.
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Figure 5.1: Cost effectiveness of integrated approach measures
400
N1-60g
300
N1-45g
200 M1 120g
M1 125g M1 130g 100 LVL N1-30g M1 135g LRRT 0 incremental cost €/t CO2 WtW eq €/t cost incremental 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 -400 -450 MAC TPMS N1-15g -100 GSI
-200 Cumulated Mt CO2 eq WtW 2010-2020 M1 (High costs) IA Segment Source: TREMOVE
Figure 5.2: Marginal cost analysis integrated approach
450
400 N1-60g
350
300
N1-45g 250
M1 120g 200 N1-30g M1 125g 150 M1 130g LVL 100 M1 135g marginal cost €/t CO2 eq WtW €/t cost marginal
50
0 LRRT 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 -400 -450 MAC -50 TPMS GSI N1-15g
-100 Cumulated Mt CO2 eq WtW 2010-2020 M1 (High costs) IA Segment Source: TREMOVE
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From that perspective, and after discussion with the Commission, the following 3 main scenarios have been retained for a more detailed analysis of the effects on transport demand, vehicle stock, emissions and welfare, in comparison to the Baseline (Scenario 1), as required by the Technical Annex.
• Scenario 2: achievement of 120g CO2/km by M1 vehicles by 2020 (TREMOVE run D23, available on www.tremove.org)
• Scenario 3A: achievement of 125g CO2/km by M1 vehicles, complemented by the policy measures identified through the cost-effectiveness screening (namely GSI,
MAC, N1 up to 15g CO2/km reduction compared to the baseline, TPMS and LRRT). This corresponds to TREMOVE run D27, available on www.tremove.org) • Scenario 3B: a variant of the former scenario considering in addition a widespread implementation of measures to influence consumer demand (taxation and consumer information). There is no direct estimation available of the likely impact of these non-technical measures on the cost-effectiveness of the technical measures included in the scenario above, but as mentioned in section 4.2, achieving a lower autonomous weight increase than 1.5% p.a. between now and 2012 is related to the success of possible complementary measures aimed at influencing consumer purchase behaviour. For modelling purpose, an average abatement of 18.5% on the M1 cost curve has been implemented in this variant. This corresponds to TREMOVE run D27B, available on CIRCA.28
28 http://forum.europa.eu.int/Members/irc/env/ia_road_vehicle/library?l=/co2_cars
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5.2 Assessment of the Scenarios with TREMOVE
5.2.1 Transport demand The impact of all scenarios on transport demand would remain limited (Table 5.1). Scenario 2 triggers a small decrease in passenger transport demand, while the Scenarios 3A and 3B correspond to a small increase in passenger transport, because the increase in vehicle purchase price and annual maintenance cost is overlapped by the fuel savings, leading to a decrease in passenger transport generalised cost.
Table 5.1: Impact on transport demand
Base Case Scenario 2 Scenario 3A Scenario 3B 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 Passenger.km slow 266665 273693 -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% small car 1700506 1808524 -0.2% -0.6% 0.0% -0.2% 0.1% 0.2% medium/big car 3580509 3886944 0.0% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% moped 112886 122060 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% motorcycle 106579 114446 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% light duty vehicle 330174 349468 0.0% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% bus 145319 144872 -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.5% -0.4% -0.7% coach 347091 341769 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Total pkm* 7561127 8120658 -0.1% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Tonne.km light duty vehicle 56335.3 58031.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% heavy duty vehicle 1914178 2088743 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total tkm* 2455701 2657677 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Vehicle.km small car 1019515 1076716 -0.2% -0.6% 0.0% -0.2% 0.1% 0.2% medium/big car 2215619 2395193 0.0% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% moped 102963 111328 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% motorcycle 96567.5 103692 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% light duty vehicle 320853 336412 0.0% -0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% heavy duty vehicle 290008 316055 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% bus 8758.2 8694.34 -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.5% -0.4% -0.7% coach 27318.9 27835.9 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% passenger train 3243.51 3409.06 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% Total vkm* 4086231 4380836 -0.1% -0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% * Totals include non-road modes (railways and inland waterways) Source: TREMOVE
5.2.2 Vehicle sales The impact of the policy scenarios on vehicle sales (Table 5.2) remains also limited, with the notable exception of Scenario 2 for small cars. This is essentially due to the fact that the scenario implemented corresponds to an increase of purchase cost by more than 10% for small cars (<1.4l, the effect is even +18% for small petrol cars), while for
- 85 - big cars the increase is lower than 8%. While this does not question the overall results of the assessment which focuses on the overall light-duty vehicle market evolution, this points to the need to define an instrument taking into account the structure of the car markets, and specificities of various segments in relation to their ability to deliver affordable CO2 reductions and fuel efficiency improvements.
Table 5.2: Impact of the Policy Scenarios on vehicle sales Percentage change vs Baseline Scenario 2 Scenario 3A Scenario 3B vehicle category fuel type 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 small car gasoline -1.5% -1.6% -0.7% -0.8% 0.1% 0.0% diesel -1.0% -1.8% -0.8% -1.3% -0.9% -1.4% CNG -1.3% -1.7% -0.7% -0.9% -0.1% -0.3% Total -1.4% -1.7% -0.7% -0.9% -0.1% -0.3% medium/big car gasoline 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.5% 1.4% diesel -0.8% -1.1% -0.3% -0.6% -0.2% -0.5% CNG -0.1% -0.2%0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% LPG 0.1% 0.0%0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% Total -0.1% -0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% light duty vehicle gasoline 0.1% 0.1% 10.9% 11.9% 11.0% 12.1% diesel -0.3% -0.3% -3.4% -4.0% -3.2% -3.9% Total -0.2% -0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% Total Gasoline -0.3% -0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 1.1% Total Diesel -0.8% -1.1% -0.6% -1.0% -0.6% Total Cars + LDV -0.5% -0.7% -0.1% -0.3% 0.3% moped gasoline -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% motorcycle gasoline -0.3% -0.4% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0% -0.1% heavy duty vehicle diesel 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% bus diesel -0.5% 0.1% -1.7% -0.3% -2.4% -0.6% CNG -0.9% 0.1% -2.0% -0.3% -2.9% -0.5% coach diesel 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Total road vehicles -0.5% -0.7% 0.0% -0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Source: TREMOVE
5.2.3 Emissions Table 5.3. present the variation of greenhouse gases emissions for the 3 scenarios, compared with the Baseline. Policy Scenario 2 leads to an abatement of 403.5 Mt WtW
CO2 equivalent over the period 2010-2020, corresponding to an abatement of 6% for road transport over the period compared to the baseline. Policy Scenarios 3A and 3B lead to a somewhat greater abatement, respectively 420.6 and 415.8 Mt, which is necessary taking into account the uncertainties of some of the measures considered (e.g. GSI). For the cheaper Variant 3B, there is a smaller abatement due to a rebound effect related to the increase in transport demand. Regarding conventional pollutant emissions (see Table 5.4), while Scenario 2 triggers a
– although small – decrease in SO2, PM and NOX emissions, Scenario 3A and 3B lead
- 86 - overall to a lower abatement due to increase in traffic, and even to a very small increase in VOC emissions, due to the higher share of gasoline vehicles.
Table 5.3: Impact of the Policy Scenarios on greenhouse gases emissions
Variation on Scenario 2 Scenario 3A Scenario 3B baseline, tonnes 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020
CH4 exhaust -24 -69 -2 -17 9 12
CH4 well_to_tank -2,239 -4,299 -2,326 -4,365 -2,312 -4,326
CO2 exhaust -33,359,456 -59,783,248 -35,070,376 -61,693,861 -34,715,967 -60,874,782
CO2 well_to_tank -4,373,958 -7,835,501 -4,615,698 -8,120,898 -4,574,376 -8,025,147
N2O exhaust -38 -200 109 120 193 304
N2O well_to_tank -1,119 -1,996 -1,232 -2,163 -1,225 -2,147
WtW CO2 Equiv -38,127,895 -68,369,336 -40,071,838 -70,520,361 -39,648,806 -69,544,626
CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O Source: TREMOVE
Table 5.4: Impact of the Policy Scenarios on pollutant exhaust emissions
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3A Scenario 3B (Base case) (% change vs (% change vs (% change vs Base case) Base case) Base case) 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 CO exhaust (Mt) 860.9 897.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% NOX exhaust (Kt) 142.6 151.9 -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% PM exhaust (Kt) 1136.5 895.1 -0.1% -0.3% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1%
SO2 exhaust (Kt) 2150.7 1924.6 -1.2% -2.0% -1.2% -2.1% -1.2% -2.1% NMVOC exhaust (Kt) 122.3 113.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Source: TREMOVE
5.2.4 Welfare The effects of the policy Scenarios on welfare indicators (Table 5.5) show that there is a wide scattering between the scenarios leading from almost positive (gain to society) to negative (loss to society) values depending essentially on the fix resource costs assumed to reach the 120g CO2/km equivalent emission target for new passenger cars. Under Scenario 2, the consumer surplus (-17 €bn) is worsened by the marginal cost of public funding (-38 €bn), leading to an overall welfare loss (externalities excluded) of -54 €bn. In policy Scenario 3A, the welfare loss due to fix resource cost is much lower in absolute value (-76 €bn compared to -99 €bn for Scenario 2), and the fuel savings are equivalent, triggering a gain in consumer surplus (+13€bn). However, the marginal cost of public funding still overlaps this gain, and the overall welfare effect is a loss of -25 €bn. In policy Scenario 3, the welfare loss due to fix resource cost is even lower, resulting to a net welfare loss of -7 €bn.
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The comparison of this welfare loss with the overall GHG abatement over the same period gives a value for GHG abatement in €/ton. At this stage, it is worth taking into account the fact that the cost estimates selected for the policy Scenario modelling were conservative. Using the alternative cost hypothesis C defined in section 4.2., this leads to a cost per ton of CO2 ranging between -11 €/ton for Scenario 3B with alternative cost assumptions, to 132 €/t for Scenario 2 with conservative cost assumptions.
Table 5.5: Welfare analysis of the policy scenarios
Scenario 2 Scenario 3A Scenario 3B
1. Variation utility of transport users -17,124 12,564 30,212 - fix resource cost -98,384 -73,777 -58,394 - var resource cost 39,434 39,046 39,150 - fix tax -3,882 -2,918 -2,276 - var tax 43,662 45,581 45,603 - VAT on fix res cost -11,223 -8,299 -6,545 - VAT on var res cost 12,988 12,872 12,889 - network cost -0 10 10 - other costs -1 112 112 - in-vehicle time price 206 -270 -557 - waiting time price -6 -13 -17 - other effects 81 221 235 2. Variation cost of public funds (general) -35,999 -37,552 -37,426 Welfare effect (1+2) -53,123 -24,988 -7,214
CO2 exhaust (t) -352,957,846 -368,027,926 -363,974,435
CO2 well_to_tank (t) -46,274,623 -48,440,991 -47,968,369
CH4 exhaust (t) -314 -53 80
N2O exhaust (t) -24,309 -25,002 -24,826
CH4 well_to_tank (t) -676 966 1,906
N2O well_to_tank (t) -11,825 -12,922 -12,849
WtW CO2eq (t) -403,498,944 -420,583,932 -415,751,249
Cost-effectiveness (€/t WtW CO2 eq.) 131.7 59.4 17.4 Source: TREMOVE
Table 5.6: Cost effectiveness of GHG Abatement 2010-2020
Cost estimation Scenario 2 Scenario 3A Scenario 3B Conservative M€ -53,123.2 -24,988.0 -7,214.0
Mt CO2 -403.5 -420.6 -415.8
€/ton CO2 131.7 59.4 17.4 Alternative M€ -33,582.2 -10,237.0 4,527.6
Mt CO2 -398.7 -415.5 -410.8
€/ton CO2 84.2 24.6 -11.0 Source: TREMOVE
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5.3 Additional target by 2015
A final set of runs has been performed as a complement to the above analysis, whereby
125g CO2/km average new M1 fleet would be reached by 2012 (Scenario 3A or 3B), and further progress would deliver 120g CO2/km for the average new M1 fleet sold in 2015. This additional variant reflects the need to move further towards low emitting cars, and thus the need to reach under type approval conditions the EU objective of
120g CO2/km. This step, and subsequent progress will be required as contributions to the future EU efforts to tackle climate change beyond the current Kyoto commitments. The scenarios correspond to model runs D27Y and D27Z, corresponding respectively to variants to Scenarios 3A and 3B, under the conservative costs estimates scenario. The results are available on CIRCA29. Using the simplified methodology explained in 4.2.4., it is also possible to provide the costs and effectiveness corresponding to the alternative cost hypothesis C (economies of scale, learning curves and potential technological breakthroughs). Table 5.7 provides an overview of the abatement and cost-effectiveness of these two final scenarios with both cost curve methodologies, compared with Scenario 2. defined in section 4.2
Table 5.7: Societal costs, CO2 savings and cost effectiveness of two additional scenarios including additional 120g target by 2015
Cost estimation Scenario 2 Scenario 3A Scenario 3B +125 g by 2015 +125 g by 2015 A/B M€ -53,123.2 -37,617.2 -33,631.2
Mt CO2 -403.5 -489.4 -483.7
€/ton CO2 131.7 76.9 69.5 C M€ -33,582.2 -19,285.4 -27,467.4
Mt CO2 -398.7 -483.6 -477.9
€/ton CO2 84.2 39.9 57.5 Source: TREMOVE
29 http://forum.europa.eu.int/Members/irc/env/ia_road_vehicle/library?l=/co2_cars
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6 Macro-economic and sectoral analysis
6.1 Description and assumptions of the scenarios
The further analysis of macro-economic and sectoral analysis of policy scenarios focusing on additional reductions of passenger car CO2 emissions between the years 2008/2009 and 2012 does not mirror the detailed cost-effectiveness analysis performed with TREMOVE and detailed in the chapter 5. Instead, it considers the range of scenarios possible looking at the two major changes that affect transport demand and through this channel the macroeconomic variables, namely
• a decrease in fuel consumption and • an increase in total costs per car type related to fuel efficiency improvements.
Starting for a core scenario reaching 120g/km by 2012 with an increase in vehicle purchase costs corresponding to the highest range of the cost sensitivity analysis, the analysis identifies 2 alternative scenarios: the 1st one with a lower decrease in fuel consumption (corresponding to a target of 130g/km), and the 2nd one keeping the fuel efficiency target but implementing a lower increase in vehicle purchase cost, corresponding to the lowest range of the cost sensitivity analysis. This section provides a detailed look on the scenario setup with a special look on the differences of the three scenarios called:
• 120g-low costs • 120g-high costs • 130g-high costs
6.1.1 Context
The focus of this analysis is the reduction of car CO2 emissions beyond 2008/9 when ACEA’s, KAMA’s and JAMA’s period of the voluntary self commitments come to an end. The three scenarios that are going to be analysed within this project focus the period between 2010 and 2012 in which the European Commission thinks about policy measures to proceed with the CO2 emission reduction strategy. To capture the medium and long term effect of these strategies the effects of these policy options will be quantified until the year 2020. These scenarios differ from the TREMOVE scenario analysed in the previous section. This is due to the fact that for contractual reasons, it was not possible for ZEW to wait for the final output from task A and the subsequent TREMOVE analysis. Against that
- 90 - background, preliminary TREMOVE runs have been performed using the draft final report from task A and the IEEP report “Service contract to carry out economic analysis and business impact assessment of CO2 emissions reduction measures in the automotive sector” (IEEP/TNO/CAIR, 2004). These scenario refer exclusively to measures targeting passenger cars, but will provide useful insight for the analysis of Macro- economic and Sectoral effects.
6.1.2 General scenario setups
General assumptions The TREMOVE baseline includes the assumption that the 140g target for average new car CO2 emissions will be reached from all car producers in 2009 after the three commitments run out.30 Therefore no changes will be modelled in the scenarios before the end of 2009. In the period between 2010 and 2012 there should be another reduction in fuel consumption which obviously becomes valid just for the new cars within and after this period. This reduction has been implemented as a linear decrease of fuel consumption in 2010, 2011 and 2012 for each car type (6 conventional car types are modelled in TREMOVE). This assumption means furthermore that the fuel efficiency in the period of 2012 and 2020 will be stable. It is obvious that the prescribed fuel efficiency improvement will lead to higher car retail prices. The scenarios have been modelled by TREMOVE assuming an identical percentage retail price change in each country and a relative cost increase (percentage compared to baseline) per car type. This cost increase in the period 2012-2020 is maintained in the simulation scenario up to 2020 and has an impact on the modelled market structure which is quantified endogenously by TREMOVE.
Table 6.1: Assumptions on fuel consumption and car purchase costs in the scenarios
Scenarios Relative decrease in fuel consumption Relative increase in costs compared to basecase compared to basecase 120g-low 120g-high 130g-high 120g-low 120g-high 130g-high Car category and year costs costs costs costs costs costs
PCSG 2009 1,000 1,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 PCMG 2009 1,000 1,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 PCBG 2009 1,000 1,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 PCSD 2009 1,000 1,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 PCMD 2009 1,000 1,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 PCBD 2009 1,000 1,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
30 A percentage yearly reduction in the period of 2002 to 2009 for all gasoline cars and diesel cars is assumed whereas the reduction of diesel and gasoline can differ.
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Scenarios Relative decrease in fuel consumption Relative increase in costs compared to basecase compared to basecase 120g-low 120g-high 130g-high 120g-low 120g-high 130g-high Car category and year costs costs costs costs costs costs PCSG_CNG 2009 1,000 1,000 1,000 – 0,000 0,000 PCMG_CNG 2009 1,000 1,000 1,000 – 0,000 0,000 PCBG_CNG 2009 1,000 1,000 1,000 – 0,000 0,000 PCSG 2010 0,953 0,935 0,965 0,012 0,049 0,028 PCMG 2010 0,947 0,944 0,971 0,010 0,026 0,015 PCBG 2010 0,942 0,935 0,966 0,006 0,021 0,012 PCSD 2010 0,965 0,961 0,981 0,007 0,028 0,015 PCMD 2010 0,957 0,996 0,985 0,009 0,022 0,012 PCBD 2010 0,950 0,963 0,983 0,008 0,021 0,011 PCSG_CNG 2010 0,953 0,935 0,965 – 0,043 0,024 PCMG_CNG 2010 0,947 0,944 0,971 – 0,024 0,014 PCBG_CNG 2010 0,942 0,935 0,966 – 0,020 0,011 PCSG 2011 0,906 0,870 0,931 0,031 0,108 0,058 PCMG 2011 0,894 0,888 0,943 0,024 0,058 0,031 PCBG 2011 0,883 0,869 0,932 0,016 0,048 0,025 PCSD 2011 0,929 0,921 0,961 0,019 0,062 0,031 PCMD 2011 0,914 0,931 0,969 0,022 0,048 0,025 PCBD 2011 0,900 0,926 0,966 0,020 0,045 0,023 PCSG_CNG 2011 0,906 0,870 0,931 – 0,095 0,051 PCMG_CNG 2011 0,984 0,888 0,943 – 0,054 0,028 PCBG_CNG 2011 0,883 0,869 0,932 – 0,045 0,024 PCSG 2012-2020 0,859 0,805 0,896 0,058 0,181 0,091 PCMG 2012-2020 0,841 0,832 0,914 0,046 0,096 0,048 PCBG 2012-2020 0,825 0,804 0,899 0,030 0,080 0,039 PCSD 2012-2020 0894 0,882 0,942 0,035 0,103 0,049 PCMD 2012-2020 0,871 0,897 0,954 0,042 0,078 0,038 PCBD 2012-2020 0,850 0,888 0,950 0,037 0,073 0,036 PCSG_CNG 2012- 0,859 0,805 0,896 – 0,158 0,080 2020 PCMG_CNG 2012- 0,841 0,832 0,914 – 0,089 0,044 2020 PCBG_CNG 2012- 0,825 0,804 0,899 – 0,075 0,037 2020 Source: TREMOVE
6.2 Macro-economic Analysis
Depending on the assumed car cost increase and the reduction target as well as changes in the structure of the vehicle stock in TREMOVE (See Annex A) the input data for the average car in PACE-T differs between the considered scenarios. Therefore, the macroeconomic variables in the single scenarios are expected to be affected differently. The following sections first describe the changes in the car input data and the
- 92 - simulations results for the single scenarios. Thereby, we concentrate mainly on the year 2020 which is the final year for the period under consideration. As far as transitional dynamics deviate from the overall trend, we also comment on these. The final subsection concludes with a comparison of the three scenario results.
6.2.1 Scenario: 120g-low costs The 120g-low costs scenario assumes that all car producers – in aggregate – meet the
120g CO2/km target in 2012 by technological measures that lead to a proportional reduction of emissions per producer (14.3% from 140g/km in 2009 to 120g/km in 2012). Thereby, car purchase costs are increased relatively modestly. Table 5.1 reports the assumed percentage increases in car purchase costs for the conventional car types which is equivalent in all EU regions. The calculation of car purchase prices for PACE-T now has to take into account the extra cost associated with the introduction of the more fuel efficient technology. Given the percentage cost increases and the associated change in the composition of the vehicle stock in the TREMOVE output, the new development of purchase prices for an average car reads as reported in Table 6.40.31 Note that the cost data for the regions outside of the EU (USA, JAP, ROW) remain unchanged to the base case.
Table 6.2 Average Car Purchase Costs in Scenario 120g-low costs (in €)
2000 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022-30
DE 17.045,36 17.823,50 18.524,08 19.643,25 20.220,58 20.537,67 ES 11.807,52 12.208,55 12.572,68 13.299,57 13.647,22 13.838,93 FR 14.410,42 15.012,01 15.591,08 16.628,30 17.174,76 17.462,78 IT 11.723,09 12.203,79 12.617,35 13.390,97 13.748,64 13.938,20 NL 11.327,16 12.001,38 12.542,24 13.358,57 13.739,73 13.936,64 UK 19.006,40 18.755,80 19.547,48 20.775,16 21.363,03 21.674,13 REU15 12.822,71 13.430,03 14.124,44 15.061,14 15.560,26 15.802,48 EU10 7.473,35 7.579,32 7.802,40 8.257,79 8.460,08 8.575,40 Source: TREMOVE, own calculations.
The comparison of Table 3.15 (Chapter 3.2) and Table 6.37 indicates major increases of the purchase prices of an average car in all regions due to the extra costs on conventional cars for the new technology. The largest increases take place between
2010 and 2014 when the percentage cost increase speeds up due to additional CO2 reductions. Of course, the size of this development differs between the regions due to structural changes in the vehicle stock and the purchase price differences. In the EU15
31 PACE-T covers the years until 2030. Therefore input-data are reported in accordance. Remember that the reporting years in PACE-T always refer to four year periods as described in Chapter 2.2.
- 93 - region the rise in purchase costs in 2014 ranges between 2,3% in the REU15 and 4,2% in Italy. The EU10 experience an increase by 5,0% in the same year relative to its baseline value. While the percentage price increase remains fairly stable in the EU10 (4,8% in 2022 and afterwards), it slows down in the EU15 countries. Thus, after 2022 the percentage change in purchase costs is between -0,1% in REU15 and 3,2 in Italy. These developments affect the magnitude of the macroeconomic effects in the single regions very differently. A more fuel efficient technology leads to decreased fuel consumption and thus average annual fuel costs compared to the base case. As already mentioned there are no changes in fuel costs before the model period 2010. Table 6.41 reports the new development of average fuel costs at constant (year 2000) prices in the 120g-low costs scenario. Indeed average fuel costs decrease in all regions compared to the base case (see Table 3.16). However, in 2010 the cost decrease vis-á-vis the base case is fairly small but is largest after 2018. To illustrate this look at the average annual fuel costs in 2010. They are reduced by 0,1 to 0,3% in the EU25 countries. In the year 2022 and afterwards fuel costs are between 4,0% in REU15 and 6,6% in France below their respective baseline values. In the EU10, the respective decrease amounts to 8,0%. Again, these various cost changes influence the macroeconomic development in the considered scenario for each country/region differently.
Table 6.3 Average Annual Fuel Costs in Scenario 120g-low costs (in €)
2000 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022-30
DE 360,20 333,40 312,67 280,67 260,21 253,57 ES 354,11 335,65 322,09 293,03 271,31 263,26 FR 382,15 350,81 329,29 294,13 272,70 266,40 IT 440,88 422,05 399,33 363,52 337,05 327,47 NL 585,09 546,12 506,35 449,68 415,26 406,07 UK 437,02 405,07 378,33 337,02 312,57 305,75 REU15 545,48 511,78 476,09 422,00 387,65 377,32 EU10 199,35 188,47 178,53 163,07 150,16 144,75 Source: TREMOVE, own calculations.
Obviously, the development of car purchase prices and fuel costs is in opposite directions. While the first increase expenditures for consumers, the latter decrease expenditures. This will cause opposed macroeconomic effects during the transition path to which we turn now.
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Macroeconomic developments Table 6.42 shows the simulations results of the changed cost assumptions for the most important macroeconomic indicators in the EU25, EU15 and EU10 in the model periods.32 Note that the results in each period are reported as percentage changes to the model period’s baseline values. Thus e.g. a value of 1,00 in 2010 would indicate that the year-2010 value of the considered variable in the scenario increased by 1,00% compared to its year-2010 value in the baseline. The assumed changes in car purchase costs and average fuel costs directly affect the demand for transport services. Due to the assumption of perfect foresight, transport demand is already affected in 2006 where it slightly decreases in all three regions. In 2010 demand for transport services is slightly increased compared to the baseline. The reason for this development is twofold. First, despite higher car purchase prices in 2010 compared to the baseline the percentage purchase price increase compared to 2006 in the scenario is smaller than in all other periods. Second, at the same time fuel costs start to decrease. Since the representative agent anticipates these developments, she increases the demand for transport services in 2010 and lowers it in the preceding period 2006. However, after 2010 purchase price increases speed up and offset the fuel cost reductions of new cars so that transport demand is lowered vis-à-vis the baseline. While purchase price increases slow down until 2020 fuel costs keep on decreasing. Therefore, transport demand losses become smaller and even turn into small increases of 0,1% in the EU15 and 0,05% in the EU25 compared to the year-2020 value in the baseline. Transport demand in the EU10 in 2020 is 0,33% below the respective baseline value. The reason here is that in contrast to the EU15 countries the percentage rise in purchase prices in the EU10 remains almost stable (range between 4,8% and 5,0% compared to the baseline) during the whole period between 2014 and 2020. Note that the size of the effects in the EU10 is larger than in the EU15 which is due to the larger percentage changes in the car cost items. The EU25 values mirror an average between the two other regions but the changes are much closer to the EU15 values due to the relative economic size of the EU15 countries compared to the EU10 countries. Real consumption (including the demand for transport services) of the representative agent is similarly affected as transport demand but to a smaller size. The increase in car purchase prices lower the budget of the agent. Consequently, real consumption slightly decreases compared to the baseline. The positive effects of lower fuel costs after 2014 diminish the negative impacts on demand. However, improving transport demand (due to reduced fuel costs) partly substitutes other consumption so that in 2020 real consumption is slightly below the baseline values in all three regions. But the effects are
32 Note that the last reporting year for the simulation results is 2020.
- 95 - fairly small. In 2020, consumption in the EU10, EU15 and EU25 is lowered by 0,17%, 0,03% and 0,05%, respectively, vis-à-vis the base case.
Table 6.4 Macroeconomic simulation results of scenario 120g-low costs relative to baseline (in %)
2006 2010 2014 2018 2020 Transport Demand EU25 -0,10 0,19 -0,27 -0,04 0,05 EU15 -0,07 0,14 -0,23 -0,01 0,10 EU10 -0,32 0,5 -0,53 -0,26 -0,33 Real Consumption EU25 -0,05 -0,03 -0,08 -0,07 -0,05 EU15 -0,04 -0,04 -0,06 -0,06 -0,03 EU10 -0,16 0,03 -0,19 -0,14 -0,17 Investment EU25 0,04 -0,02 0,03 -0,04 0,00 EU15 0,05 -0,04 0,04 -0,05 0,00 EU10 -0,23 0,46 -0,26 0,10 -0,13 Capital Stock EU25 0,01 0,00 0,01 0,00 0,00 EU15 0,01 0,00 0,00 -0,01 0,00 EU10 -0,05 0,06 0,01 0,01 -0,04 Car Exports EU25 -0,07 -0,69 -5,69 -3,35 -3,09 EU15 -0,17 -0,35 -5,44 -2,63 -2,37 EU10 -0,22 -0,37 -7,06 -5,76 -5,77 Car Imports EU25 -0,39 2,28 3,06 4,62 4,37 EU15 -0,33 1,98 2,60 3,88 3,64 EU10 -1,17 3,86 -2,05 4,27 4,25 Exports EU25 0,16 0,02 0,28 0,11 0,09 EU15 0,14 0,04 0,23 0,10 0,07 EU10 0,17 -0,06 0,30 0,14 0,19 Imports EU25 -0,13 0,01 -0,25 -0,12 -0,11 EU15 -0,10 0,00 -0,21 -0,09 -0,07 EU10 -0,14 0,20 -0,29 -0,11 -0,21 Real GDP EU25 0,00 -0,05 -0,04 -0,07 -0,06 EU15 0,00 -0,05 -0,04 -0,07 -0,05 EU10 0,02 -0,19 0,04 -0,25 -0,22 Productivity EU25 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00 EU15 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00 EU10 -0,04 0,08 -0,02 0,03 0,07 Real Wage Rate EU25 0,00 0,05 -0,03 0,02 0,04 EU15 0,00 0,05 -0,03 0,02 0,05 EU10 -0,09 0,18 -0,12 -0,02 -0,06 Real Interest Rate EU25 -0,02 0,04 -0,05 0,01 0,03 EU15 -0,02 0,03 -0,04 0,02 0,03 EU10 -0,03 0,12 -0,13 -0,04 -0,02 Disposable Income EU25 -0,03 0,00 -0,04 -0,01 0,00 EU15 -0,03 0,00 -0,04 -0,01 0,00 EU10 -0,09 0,05 -0,09 -0,01 -0,07 Tax Revenues EU25 -0,07 0,00 -0,27 -0,41 -0,48 EU15 -0,06 -0,01 -0,26 -0,41 -0,48 EU10 -0,20 -0,18 -0,42 -0,42 -0,59 Social Welfare EU25 -0.03 EU15 -0.03 EU10 -0.08 Source: Calculations of PACE-T.
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Investment remains fairly unchanged during the transition period. In 2020 the simulation results show unchanged values in the EU15 and EU25 compared to the baseline. Again fluctuations are slightly larger in the EU10 since increased purchase prices and reduced fuel costs have a larger impact on transport and consumption demand. Therefore, investments in the year 2020 are by 0,13% below their respective baseline value. The development of investment of course affects the transition path of capital stocks. Obviously, capital stocks are hardly affected in the scenario. While they remain unchanged in the EU15 and EU25 vis-à-vis the baseline value in 2020, capital stocks in the EU10 in the same year are lowered by 0,04%. Of course, changes in the car cost items in the EU immediately impact car exports and imports. Since car purchase prices in the USA, JAP and ROW remain unchanged to the baseline, the increase in car purchase prices in the EU countries lead to a decrease in car exports compared to the baseline over the whole period. The reason is simply that European cars become relatively more expensive. The deviation of car exports from the baseline is largest in 2014. This reflects the fact that the percentage price increase is largest in this period. Afterwards, the negative effects on car exports are dampened when the fuel cost decrease starts to partly offset the higher purchase prices and transport demand recovers. But nevertheless car exports in 2020 are lowered by 5,77% in the EU10, by 2,37% in the EU15 and by 3,09% in the EU25 compared to the respective baseline values. Note the large discrepancy between the export losses in the EU10 and EU15. While the EU15 mostly loses export shares to the three regions outside of the EU, the EU10 countries also lose exports to the EU15. This can easily be explained by the larger increases in car purchase costs in the EU10 compared to the EU15 countries. Car imports in 2006 are negatively affected which just reflects the initially reduced transport demand and adjustments due to the perfect foresight assumption. Afterwards, car imports behave opposite to exports. Since cars from outside the EU become relatively cheaper imports are increased vis-à-vis the baseline. One exception here is the car imports into the EU10 in the year 2014 which are 2,05% below their baseline value. This development is due to several effects. On the one hand, lower transport demand reduces the need for cars from foreign countries. On the other hand, the share of car imports from the EU15 is relatively large in the EU10. Thus, lower exports from the EU15 automatically translate into lower imports in the EU10. This effect is very pronounced in the year 2014 so that the simulation results show negative changes in car imports in the latter region. Besides this exception, the higher car purchase prices in the EU principally increase car imports during most of the transition path. In 2020, imports are therefore 4,25% in the EU10, 3,64% in the EU15 and 4,37% in the EU25 above their respective baseline values.
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The development of exports and imports of all other commodities is mostly affected by the changes in consumption demand. The decrease in real consumption tends to increase exports and lower imports during the transition path. This is exactly observed in the simulation results. However, the effects are again very small. Exports in 2020 increase by 0,19% in the EU10, by 0,07% in the EU15 and by 0,09% in the EU25 vis-à-vis the baseline. The respective reduction in imports is 0,21% in the EU10, 0,07% in the EU15 and 0,11% in the EU25. All these effects have hardly any impact on the development of real GDP. Due to slightly decreased transport and consumption demand as well as increased car imports during the transition path, real GDP is negatively affected but only to a small size. In 2020 real GDP in the EU10, EU15 and EU25 is 0,22%, 0,05% and 0,06%, respectively, below the baseline value. Productivity, real wage and interest rates remain fairly unchanged during the considered period. As already stated above wages and interest rates affect the income distribution. While workers mainly depend on labour income, capital owners rely much more on interest income. Since real wages and interest rates are hardly changes relative to the baseline, the relative income position and distribution between wage and capital earners are also hardly affected. The same finding holds true for the development of the disposable income of the representative agent. Here the simulation results indicate only minor changes from the baseline. In 2020 the disposable income in the EU15 and EU25 is unchanged and in the EU10 it is lowered by 0,07%. Tax revenues are mainly affected by the changes in transport demand and especially of fuel consumption. Reduced transportation demand lowers the payments of registration taxes and other fixed and variable taxes and VAT. This for most explains the modest decrease in tax revenues until 2014. Afterwards, fuel consumption starts to decrease more intensely compared to the baseline. Lower fuel consumption, however, translates into lower revenues from fuel taxation. This explains that revenue losses become larger in 2018 and later. Thus in 2020 tax revenues are 0,59% in the EU10 and 0,48% in the EU15 and EU25 lower compared to their respective baseline values. Finally, consider the development of social welfare in the three regions. Social welfare is defined as the weighted average of real consumption over the whole transition path. Not surprisingly, all regions experience a loss in welfare. The explanation is near at hand. Real consumption decreases in almost all periods compared to the baseline and thus causes welfare losses. However, these losses are negligible. In the EU10 welfare is expected to decrease by 0,08% and in the EU15 and EU25 by 0,03% each. These are really small values.
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Sectoral developments After considering the macroeconomic effects of the 120g-low costs scenario we now turn to the sectoral effects of increased purchase costs and lower fuel costs. Table 6.5 shows the sectoral employment shifts and the changes in sectoral investment and capital relative to the baseline path. These changes are reported for the motor vehicles sector (MVH), the sector for refined oil products (P_C), the service sector (SER) and all other sectors combined.
Table 6.5 Sectoral effects of scenario 120g-low costs relative to baseline (in %)
2006 2010 2014 2018 2020 Employment EU25 MVH -0,06 0,53 -0,10 0,71 0,68 P_C -0,05 0,01 -0,81 -1,71 -2,17 SER -0,02 -0,02 -0,03 -0,04 -0,03 others 0,02 -0,01 0,03 -0,01 -0,01 EU15 MVH -0,06 0,53 -0,10 0,71 0,68 P_C -0,05 0,00 -0,81 -1,71 -2,17 SER -0,02 -0,02 -0,03 -0,04 -0,03 others 0,02 -0,01 0,03 -0,01 -0,01 EU10 MVH -0,10 0,67 -0,46 0,52 0,49 P_C -0,09 0,06 -0,72 -1,59 -2,11 SER -0,05 -0,01 -0,06 -0,06 -0,07 others 0,03 -0,01 0,05 0,03 0,04 Investment EU25 MVH -0,24 2,39 -2,94 4,27 1,90 P_C -0,22 0,34 -3,91 -3,57 -4,23 SER -0,02 -0,03 -0,03 -0,05 0,01 others 0,11 -0,08 0,15 -0,11 -0,04 EU15 MVH -0,16 2,17 -2,53 4,08 1,89 P_C -0,15 0,22 -3,85 -3,58 -4,15 SER 0,01 -0,09 0,02 -0,07 0,03 others 0,15 -0,14 0,17 -0,12 -0,02 EU10 MVH -0,64 3,54 -4,86 5,23 1,99 P_C -0,70 1,14 -4,28 -3,51 -4,77 SER -0,43 0,65 -0,55 0,10 -0,18 others -0,10 0,27 0,05 -0,02 -0,16 Capital EU25 MVH -0,06 0,56 -0,14 0,68 0,66 P_C -0,05 0,03 -0,76 -1,60 -2,02 SER -0,01 -0,01 -0,02 -0,03 -0,01 others 0,03 0,01 0,04 0,01 0,01 EU15 MVH -0,04 0,53 -0,08 0,72 0,71 P_C -0,03 0,01 -0,76 -1,61 -2,00 SER 0,00 -0,02 -0,01 -0,02 -0,01 others 0,03 0,00 0,03 0,00 0,01 EU10 MVH -0,15 0,72 -0,45 0,52 0,46 P_C -0,14 0,12 -0,71 -1,59 -2,14 SER -0,10 0,05 -0,05 -0,05 -0,10 others -0,02 0,04 0,06 0,04 0,00 Source: Calculations of PACE-T.
PACE-T assumes labour supply to be fixed. Consequently employment shifts are due to demand changes in the different sectors of the model. The results are not surprising. In
- 99 - all regions employment in the P_C sector is lowered compared to the baseline. The respective reduction in 2020 is 2,11% in the EU10 and 2,17% in the EU15 and EU25 each. Of course, the reason is the lower transport demand and reduced fuel consumption which reduces employment in this sector. The same reasoning holds true for the SER sector since lower transport demand also lowers the demand for maintenance and repair services. Also the sector for motor vehicles and parts behaves very much in accordance to the development of transport demand. In contrast to the two other sectors, employment in 2020 is slightly increased by 0,49% in the EU10 and by 0,68% in the EU15 and EU25 compared to the baseline. Sectoral employment shifts in all other sectors are more or less negligible. The development and explanation of sectoral investment and capital shifts is very similar to that of employment. Reduced demand for transport and fuel leads to a decrease in investment in the P_C sector compared to the baseline. Hence, investment in 2020 is 4,77% in the EU10, 4,15% in the EU15 and 4,23% in the EU25 below the respective baseline values. Investment in the MVH sector for most reflects the changes in transport demand. In 2020 the simulation results show an increase by about 1,9% vis- à-vis the baseline in all three regions. The other economic sectors experience only minor investment changes. According to the development of investment capital in the P_C sector is reduced by approximately 2% in all three regions relative to the baseline. The respective increase of capital in the MVH sector in 2020 is 0,46% in the EU10, 0,71% in the EU15 and 0,66 in the EU25. Sectoral capital shifts in all other sectors are fairly small. To conclude, the 120g-low costs scenario assumes a rather modest cost increase in car purchase prices in order to reach the 120g CO2/km target. The combination of increased car purchase prices and reduced fuel costs due to lower fuel consumption leads to relatively modest macroeconomic effects. Transport demand, consumption demand and GDP is expected to decrease. However, the effects are fairly small given the large growth of the respective variables over the coming decade as shown in Chapter 3.2. Of course, the largest effects are observed for car exports and imports since increased purchase prices in the EU and unchanged prices outside of the EU reduce the competitiveness of the EU countries. But given the relatively modest cost increases the effects are also more moderate than in the following scenario.
6.2.2 Scenario: 120g-high costs As in the previous scenario, the 120g-high costs scenario assumes all car producers to meet the 120g CO2/km target in 2012. Again this target is reached by technological measures that lead to a proportional reduction of emissions per producer (14.8% from 140g/km in 2009 to 120g/km in 2012). While the 120g-low costs scenario assumed a
- 100 - relatively moderate increase in car purchase costs, the percentage increase in purchase costs in the 120g-high costs scenario is much more pronounced. As Table 5.1 (Chapter 5) indicates the percentage car cost increase ranges between 2.1% for big gasoline and diesel cars in 2010 and 18.1% for small gasoline cars in 2012 and thereafter. Given these cost increments and the TREMOVE output for the development and composition of the passenger car stock, the average car purchase price for the representative vehicle is calculated as reported in Table 6.44. As with the previous scenario purchase prices remain unchanged in the USA, Japan and ROW. Comparing Table 6.6 to Table 6.2 it becomes obvious that the cost increase in scenario 120g-high costs is much higher than in the previous scenario. Car purchase prices in the EU15 in 2022 and afterwards are now between 7,3% in REU15 and 11,1% in IT above their respective baseline values. In the EU10 this increase is even 13,5%. Consequently, the expected macroeconomic effects in scenario 120g-high costs will be much more pronounced than in the 120g-low costs scenario.
Table 6.6 Average Car Purchase Costs in Scenario 120g-high costs (in €)
2000 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022-30
DE 17.045,36 17.823,50 18.867,96 20.773,24 21.407,61 21754,79 ES 11.807,52 12.208,55 12.812,87 14.064,68 14.434,52 14638,28 FR 14.410,42 15.012,01 15.897,75 17.622,34 18.220,32 18535,24 IT 11.723,09 12.203,79 12.887,85 14.270,03 14.656,53 14861,87 NL 11.327,16 12.001,38 12.798,58 14.197,19 14.615,00 14831,98 UK 19.006,40 18.755,80 19.925,33 22.015,92 22656,13 22994,21 REU15 12.822,71 13.430,03 14.400,88 15.960,01 16491,02 16751,59 EU10 7.473,35 7.579,32 7.982,23 8.857,09 9089,96 9226,13 Source: TREMOVE, own calculations.
As before the more fuel efficient technology leads to decreased fuel consumption. This also means reduced average annual fuel costs compared to the baseline. Since in the considered scenario the structural composition of the vehicle stock and the percentage decreases in fuel consumption for the various vehicle categories differ from the previous scenario, average annual fuel costs have a slightly changed development. This is shown in Table 6.7. The comparison of Tables 6.3 and 6.7 indicates that the development of average fuel costs is fairly identical. However, the cost decrease in scenario 120g-high costs is higher but only to a small extent. Compared to the baseline fuel costs after 2022 are between 4,6% in the REU15 and 7,0% in Netherlands lower. Again the decrease in fuel costs is largest in the EU10 where the respective reduction is 8,9%. These findings already indicate that that the additional purchase price increase (compared to the previous
- 101 - scenario) will outweigh the additional fuel cost decrease. This will of course be reflected in the simulation results. Relative changes are also expected to be larger than in the previous scenario.
Table 6.7 Average Annual Fuel Costs in Scenario 120g-high costs (in €)
2000 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022-30 DE 360,20 333,40 312,58 280,20 259,28 252,40 ES 354,11 335,65 321,99 292,16 269,75 261,35 FR 382,15 350,81 329,26 294,08 272,50 266,10 IT 440,88 422,05 399,15 361,99 334,29 324,15 NL 585,09 546,12 506,13 447,00 409,96 399,76 UK 437,02 405,07 378,11 334,68 308,28 300,72 REU15 545,48 511,78 475,95 420,64 385,02 374,06 EU10 199,35 188,47 178,44 162,42 148,69 142,84 Source: TREMOVE, own calculations.
Macroeconomic developments Now turn to the macroeconomic effects of the 120g-high costs scenario as shown in Table 6.8. Obviously, the qualitative effects are identical to scenario 120g-low costs. But as previously assumed, the macroeconomic effects in the 120g-high costs scenario are larger. First consider the development of transport demand. Again the development reflects on the one hand the increase in car purchase prices, which make transport demand more expensive, and on the other hand the decrease in fuel costs, which tend to cheapen the demand for transport services. Since the purchase cost increase completely outweighs the reduction of fuel costs, transport demand now decreases by more the further we go into the future, i.e. even with an increasing cost reduction for fuel the rise in fix car costs dominates. In 2020, the deviation from the baseline is now -1,97% in the EU10, -0,97% in the EU15 and -1,09% in the EU25. The larger value in the EU10 again reflects the larger percentage increase in purchase costs for the average car. Due to the relative economic size of the EU15 compared to the EU10 the development of transportation demand in the EU25 is very close to the EU15. Higher expenditures on transport services diminish the budget of the representative consumer for other consumption. Therefore, real consumption declines vis-à-vis the baseline. Not surprisingly the extent of this increase is larger than in the previous scenario and increases with time. The simulation results now show a decrease in real consumption in 2020 by 0,64% in the EU10, by 0,28% in the EU15 and by 0,32% in the EU25 compared to the respective baseline values. Even if these values are more pronounced than in the previous scenario, the deviations are fairly small given 20 years of growth as shown in the baseline development in Chapter 3.2.
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Table 6.8 Macroeconomic simulation results of scenario 120g-high costs relative to baseline (in %)
2006 2010 2014 2018 2020 Transport Demand EU25 -0,27 0,77 -0,83 -0,89 -1,09 EU15 -0,22 0,69 -0,76 -0,81 -0,97 EU10 -0,63 1,33 -1,33 -1,43 -1,97 Real Consumption EU25 -0,14 -0,03 -0,19 -0,28 -0,32 EU15 -0,11 -0,05 -0,16 -0,25 -0,28 EU10 -0,33 0,08 -0,44 -0,48 -0,62 Investment EU25 0,08 0,00 0,08 -0,28 -0,34 EU15 0,10 -0,04 0,11 -0,29 -0,33 EU10 -0,35 0,83 -0,43 -0,06 -0,64 Capital Stock EU25 0,02 0,02 0,03 -0,04 -0,08 EU15 0,03 0,01 0,03 -0,04 -0,07 EU10 -0,08 0,12 0,04 -0,02 -0,15 Car Exports EU25 0,00 -3,56 -15,26 -12,61 -12,34 EU15 -0,22 -2,62 -14,84 -11,17 -10,92 EU10 -0,55 -1,07 -16,71 -13,04 -13,16 Car Imports EU25 -1,08 8,49 7,25 14,41 14,05 EU15 -0,97 7,74 6,10 12,64 12,29 EU10 -2,31 9,52 -6,23 7,35 7,25 Exports EU25 0,42 -0,17 0,78 0,52 0,59 EU15 0,37 -0,12 0,67 0,48 0,53 EU10 0,36 -0,10 0,65 0,44 0,63 Imports EU25 -0,33 0,25 -0,69 -0,43 -0,52 EU15 -0,28 0,21 -0,59 -0,36 -0,43 EU10 -0,27 0,47 -0,61 -0,18 -0,39 Real GDP EU25 0,01 -0,18 -0,09 -0,30 -0,31 EU15 0,00 -0,17 -0,09 -0,28 -0,29 EU10 0,04 -0,47 0,08 -0,68 -0,72 Productivity EU25 0,02 0,04 0,02 -0,01 -0,04 EU15 0,03 0,04 0,03 -0,01 -0,03 EU10 -0,05 0,17 -0,03 0,03 -0,08 Real Wage Rate EU25 -0,02 0,20 -0,13 -0,12 -0,18 EU15 -0,02 0,19 -0,12 -0,12 -0,17 EU10 -0,16 0,45 -0,31 -0,31 -0,49 Real Interest Rate EU25 -0,06 0,16 -0,17 -0,13 -0,15 EU15 -0,06 0,14 -0,15 -0,11 -0,12 EU10 -0,08 0,33 -0,34 -0,29 -0,33 Disposable Income EU25 -0,09 0,03 -0,13 -0,10 -0,13 EU15 -0,08 0,03 -0,13 -0,10 -0,12 EU10 -0,17 0,11 -0,21 -0,12 -0,21 Tax Revenues EU25 -0,18 0,11 -0,50 -0,78 -0,97 EU15 -0,17 0,10 -0,48 -0,78 -0,96 EU10 -0,40 0,46 -0,81 -0,81 -1,19 Social Welfare EU25 -0.19 EU15 -0.17 EU10 -0.34 Source: Calculations of PACE-T.
The changes in investment are of comparable size in all regions. The year-2020 values are reduced by 0,64% in the EU10, by 0,33% in the EU15 and by 0,34% in the EU25.
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Due to lower investment, capital stocks are also smaller compared to the baseline. In 2020, this decrease is 0,15% in the EU10, 0,07% in the EU15 and 0,08% in the EU25. As already explained above car imports and exports are immediately affected by changes in the car cost items due to changed international competitiveness. Compared to the previous scenario, cars in the EU now become relatively more expensive than before. Due to unchanged car purchase prices outside of the EU car exports are reduced compared to the baseline. The magnitude of this effect is sizeable. Take e.g. the year 2014. In this year car exports in the EU10 are 16,71% below their respective baseline value. The respective figures for the EU15 and EU25 are 14,84% and 15,26%. These are the largest deviations from the baseline over the whole period, which just reflects the largest percentage deviations of car purchase prices. But in 2020 car export decreases are still large. Here the simulation results show a reduction of 13,16% in the EU10, 10,92% in the EU15 and 12,34% in the EU25. Equivalently car imports rise in the three regions relative to the baseline. The year-2020 values are increased by 7,25% in the EU10, by 12,20% in the EU15 and by 14,05% in the EU25. Note the large discrepancies between the three regions. These differences of course stem from the country selection from which imports are received. If one considers the whole EU25 region, car imports are from outside the EU, i.e. only from countries where car cost items remain unchanged. Therefore, the import increase is relatively high. Car imports in the EU15 are composed of imports from outside of the EU and from the EU10 countries. Since the latter also experience major car purchase price increases, car imports in the EU15 are lower than in the EU25. But the imports are much higher than in the EU10. The explanation is that cars in the EU10 are principally cheaper than cars in the EU15 despite the assumed cost increase. Consequently, the EU10 regions increase imports the least since car imports are also composed of cars from the EU15 countries which are more expensive than own cars. Another reason for the smallest import increase in the EU10 is the fact that transport demand is reduced by twice the percentage than in the EU15. Thus lower transport demand also necessitates reduced car imports. Since real consumption is reduced compared to the baseline, exports of other commodities increase and imports are lowered. The effects are again more pronounced than in the previous scenario but are still of relatively small size. In 2020, exports increase by 0,63% in the EU10, by 0,53% in the EU15 and by 0,59% in the EU25 relative to the baseline. In the same year the change of imports is -0,39% in the EU10, -0,43% in the EU15 and -0,52% in the EU25. Due to these effects the development of real GDP shows a small negative tendency which mainly reflects the smaller demand for transport and consumption and the
- 104 - changes in car imports and exports. In 2020 real GDP in the EU10, EU15 and EU25 is therefore 0,72%, 0,29% and 0,31%, respectively, below their baseline values. Of course, the negative demand effects also lead to slight reductions in productivity, real wage and interest rates vis-à-vis the baseline. The real wage rate in 2020 is reduced by 0,49% in the EU10, by 0,17% in the EU15 and by 0,18% in the EU25. The decrease in real interest rates is more moderate. Here the reduction in the EU10, EU15 and EU25 is 0,33%, 0,12% and 0,15%, respectively. These figures indicate that wage earners are hurt by slightly more than capital earners leading to a less favourable income position of workers. The changes in the disposable income of the representative agent are again very small. Almost over the whole period the income is slightly decreased compared to the baseline. This is mostly due to changes in the payoff for labour and capital. Thus in 2020 disposable incomes are reduced by 0,21% in the EU10, by 0,12% in the EU15 and by 0,13% in the EU25 relative to the respective baseline value. Tax revenues now decrease to a larger extent than in the previous scenario. The reason is of course the larger decline in transport demand and the slightly higher reduction in fuel consumption. Both effects reduce tax revenues from taxation at the transport and fuel level. Consequently, tax revenues in the EU10 are lowered by 1,19% in 2020. The respective decline in the EU15 is 0,96% and in the EU25 0,97%. Despite the fairly strong assumptions concerning the increase in car purchase costs and the decrease in fuel consumption, these losses in tax revenues are very modest. Following the previous argumentation, it is not surprising that social welfare is negatively affected in the 120g-high costs scenario. Welfare is expected to decrease by 0,34% in the EU10, by 0,17% in the EU15 and by 0,19% in the EU25. These welfare losses are more sizeable than in the previous scenario but are again of relatively small magnitude.
Sectoral developments Now consider the sectoral effects in Table 6.9 triggered in the 120g-high costs scenario. The picture looks very much the same as in the previous scenario but again the effects are larger. Due to reduced demand for transportation services and fuel employment in the P_C sector is reduced during the transition path. In 2020 all three regions experience a decrease of about 2,8% compared to the baseline. Since the demand for maintenance and repair services behaves accordingly to transport demand employment in the SER sector is also reduced but to a much smaller extent. Here the simulation results in 2020 suggest a decrease of 0,22% in the EU10, 0,13% in the EU15 and 0,14% in the EU25 compared to the baseline. The employment effects in the MVH sector for most mirror the relative changes in purchase prices compared to the baseline. The large percentage
- 105 - jump in prices in 2014 triggers reduced employment. Since all EU countries afterwards experience a smaller relative price increase and employment in the P_C sector is crowded out, employment in the MVH sector increases again so that in 2020 it is approximately 1,3% in the EU10 and 1,7% in the EU15 and EU25 above the respective baseline value. Employment shifts in the other sectors of the economies are again rather small.
Table 6.9 Sectoral effects of scenario 120g-high costs relative to baseline (in %)
2006 2010 2014 2018 2020 Employment EU25 MVH -0,15 1,70 -0,68 1,67 1,65 P_C -0,14 0,23 -1,09 -2,18 -2,85 SER -0,05 -0,05 -0,07 -0,13 -0,14 others 0,05 -0,06 0,10 0,01 0,02 EU15 MVH -0,14 1,70 -0,67 1,67 1,66 P_C -0,14 0,22 -1,09 -2,19 -2,85 SER -0,05 -0,05 -0,06 -0,13 -0,13 others 0,05 -0,06 0,10 0,01 0,01 EU10 MVH -0,21 1,88 -1,32 1,29 1,26 P_C -0,20 0,29 -1,03 -2,06 -2,79 SER -0,10 -0,02 -0,13 -0,19 -0,22 others 0,07 -0,04 0,13 0,10 0,12 Investment EU25 MVH -0,58 7,34 -10,36 12,21 5,32 P_C -0,61 1,83 -6,57 -4,25 -5,81 SER -0,09 0,04 -0,11 -0,40 -0,41 others 0,27 -0,23 0,52 -0,40 -0,32 EU15 MVH -0,44 6,96 -9,71 11,91 5,31 P_C -0,50 1,66 -6,47 -4,27 -5,70 SER -0,02 -0,07 -0,02 -0,41 -0,36 others 0,33 -0,34 0,56 -0,43 -0,28 EU10 MVH -1,22 9,25 -13,42 13,73 5,40 P_C -1,38 2,96 -7,24 -4,14 -6,51 SER -0,78 1,22 -1,06 -0,32 -0,98 others -0,08 0,37 0,32 -0,26 -0,53 Capital EU25 MVH -0,14 1,76 -0,74 1,58 1,51 P_C -0,13 0,27 -1,02 -2,12 -2,75 SER -0,02 -0,01 -0,03 -0,13 -0,17 others 0,06 0,01 0,11 0,02 -0,02 EU15 MVH -0,11 1,72 -0,63 1,65 1,60 P_C -0,11 0,25 -1,03 -2,12 -2,72 SER 0,00 -0,02 -0,03 -0,12 -0,15 others 0,08 0,00 0,11 0,01 -0,02 EU10 MVH -0,29 2,00 -1,28 1,25 1,09 P_C -0,28 0,40 -0,99 -2,11 -2,93 SER -0,18 0,10 -0,10 -0,22 -0,38 others -0,02 0,07 0,15 0,07 -0,05 Source: Calculations of PACE-T.
Sectoral shifts in investment are similar to the previous scenario. The smaller demand for fuel leads to reduced investment incentives in the P_C sector. Thus investments in 2020 are 6,51% in the EU10, 5,70% in the EU15 and 5,81% in the EU25 below their
- 106 - respective baseline values. The simulation results however find a much larger increase in investment in the MVH sector now. In 2020, the range of the percentage increase is between 5,3% and 5,4% in the three regions. Investment shifts in the other sectors are also higher and of comparable magnitude. According to the sectoral shifts in investment, capital in the MVH sector in 2020 increases by 1,1% to 1,6% in the three regions compared to the baseline. In the P_C sector capital is reduced by 2,7% to 2,9% in the same year. Changes in capital in the other sectors are again very moderate. The findings in the 120g-high costs scenario suggest much larger macroeconomic effects than in the previous scenario. The explanation here is right at hand. Car purchase prices increase much more steeply compared to the baseline. At the same time fuel costs develop very much the same as in the previous scenario. Consequently, transport and consumption demand and finally real GDP experience more pronounced reductions compared to the baseline. Despite the relatively large cost increases for the consumer these changes are, however, relatively small leaving social welfare fairly unchanged. This is due to the fact that reduced fuel costs dampen the negative effects of increased purchase prices. It is, however, worth mentioning that the relative price changes affect international trade patterns to a sizeable extent. Car exports still increase over the coming decade but this growth is dampened by the assumed increase in prices. In contrast, assuming that the countries outside of the EU leave their car purchase prices unchanged, car imports are expected to increase remarkably.
6.2.3 Scenario: 130g-high costs Finally, we consider the 130g-high costs scenario. The differences of this scenario to the two previous ones are twofold. First, all car producers are now assumed to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars to 130g CO2/km in 2012. This means a proportional reduction of emissions per producer of 7,4% from 140g CO2/km in 2009 to 130g
CO2/km in 2012. Second, the percentage increase in car purchase prices, in order to reach this target by technical measures, is between the relatively small rise in scenario 120g-low costs and the relatively large rise assumed in scenario 120g-high costs. The 130g-high costs scenario now assumes additional car purchase price increases ranging between 1,1% for big diesel cars in 2010 and 9,1% for small gasoline cars in 2012 and afterwards (see Table 5.1). These two scenario assumptions will have important consequences on the simulation results. On the one hand, the average purchase price for cars will increase somewhere in the middle between the two previous scenarios and thus leading to more pronounced effects on transport and consumption demand than in the first scenario analysed. On the other hand, average fuel costs decrease to a much smaller extent compared to the baseline. This lowers the positive counterbalancing effects of reduced variable costs. As a consequence, the simulation results of PACE-T will lie somewhere between those of the previous scenarios.
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Now have a look at the newly calculated average car purchase prices due to the cost increments and the structural changes of the vehicle stock as shown in Table 6.10. Comparing this table to Tables 6.2 and 6.6 it is obvious that the previously suggested rise in average car purchase costs is of medium range. Again the largest jump in prices relative to the baseline occurs in 2014. In this year purchase prices increase between 3,2% in the REU15 and 6,4% in the EU10 relative to their respective baseline levels. In 2022 and afterwards car purchase prices are between 1,0% in the REU15 and 6,5% in the EU10 above the baseline values. Purchase costs outside the EU are assumed to remain unchanged.
Table 6.10 Average Car Purchase Costs in Scenario 130g-high costs (in €)
2000 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022-30
DE 17.045,36 17.823,50 18.645,15 19.789,67 20.381,51 20.706,53 ES 11.807,52 12.208,55 12.655,22 13.392,75 13.746,71 13.941,99 FR 14.410,42 15.012,01 15.697,99 16.760,54 17.321,12 17.616,67 IT 11.723,09 12.203,79 12.716,02 13.530,40 13.895,93 14.090,22 NL 11.327,16 12.001,38 12.636,17 13.488,14 13.880,73 14.083,84 UK 19.006,40 18.755,80 19.682,40 20.945,68 21.550,11 21.869,57 REU15 12.822,71 13.430,03 14.223,23 15.186,83 15.693,34 15.940,88 EU10 7.473,35 7.579,32 7.870,84 8.366,29 8.578,47 8.701,00 Source: TREMOVE, own calculations.
As already indicated before, the 130g-high costs scenario assumes a smaller reduction in CO2 emissions and thus fuel consumption of passenger cars than the previous scenarios. This, of course, implies smaller reductions of average annual fuel costs compared to the baseline. Table 6.11 reports the development of average fuel costs in scenario 130g-high costs.
Table 6.11 Average Annual Fuel Costs in Scenario 130g-high costs (in €)
2000 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022-30
DE 360,20 333,40 313,31 287,91 272,53 267,77 ES 354,11 335,65 322,54 298,72 281,30 274,90 FR 382,15 350,81 330,00 302,57 287,03 282,74 IT 440,88 422,05 399,90 370,31 349,02 341,44 NL 585,09 546,12 507,33 461,26 435,22 429,31 UK 437,02 405,07 379,15 346,38 328,26 323,56 REU15 545,48 511,78 476,92 432,34 405,06 397,08 EU10 199,35 188,47 178,80 166,03 155,91 151,87 Source: TREMOVE, own calculations.
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Obviously, average fuel costs develop very closely to those in the baseline (see Table 3.16). Especially in the EU15 countries the deviations are fairly small. In 2010, average fuel costs are reduced by a maximum of 0,2% in Italy compared to the respective baseline value. In 2020 the cost reduction in the EU15 ranges between -0,4% in the REU15 and -2,7% in ES and IT. The consequence of this development is that in the EU15 fuel cost reductions can hardly counterbalance the increases in purchase prices. The situation is a little bit different in the EU10. Here percentage fuel cost reductions decrease to a larger extent, e.g. in 2022 average fuel costs are 4,4% below their respective baseline value. However, these percentages are only approximately half of those in scenarios 120g-low costs and 120g-high costs. One also has to keep in mind that purchase price increases in the EU10 are also larger so that the effect of higher fuel cost reductions is also dampened.
Macroeconomic developments We now turn to the simulation results of the 130g-high costs scenario. As with the previous scenarios we first have a close look at the macroeconomic effects reported in Table 6.12. Afterwards the structural employment, investment and capital shifts as shown in Table 6.13 are considered. Having only a short look at Table 6.9 it already becomes clear that the qualitative effects of scenario 130g-high costs are identical to the two previous scenarios and that the quantitative effects are in the middle. The development of transport demand indicates that the purchase price increase obviously dominates the reduction in fuel costs. Consequently, transport demand decreases during the transition path (one exception is again the year 2010, see explanation above). Thus in 2020 transport demand is lowered by 0,92% in the EU10, by 0,47% in the EU15 and by 0,53% in the EU25 compared to the respective baseline levels. Higher expenditures for transportation suppress real consumption. The simulation results now show that real consumption in 2020 is reduced by 0,30% in the EU10, by 0,12% in the EU15 and by 0,15% in the EU25. The medium-run changes in investment are almost of identical magnitude. Due to the higher costs on transport the deviation in 2020 from the baseline is -0,30% in the EU10, -0,15% in the EU15 and -0,16% in the EU25. With lower investment expenditures the increase in capital stocks over time is dampened. This explains that capital stocks in 2020 are 0,10% in the EU10, 0,04% in the EU15 and 0,05% in the EU25 below their respective baseline values.
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Table 6.12 Macroeconomic simulation results of scenario 130g-high costs relative to baseline (in %)
2006 2010 2014 2018 2020 Transport Demand EU25 -0,04 0,32 -0,41 -0,48 -0,53 EU15 -0,02 0,29 -0,38 -0,44 -0,47 EU10 -0,20 0,56 -0,68 -0,75 -0,92 Real Consumption EU25 -0,05 -0,01 -0,09 -0,13 -0,15 EU15 -0,04 -0,02 -0,08 -0,12 -0,12 EU10 -0,15 0,02 -0,23 -0,25 -0,30 Investment EU25 0,04 0,00 0,00 -0,16 -0,16 EU15 0,05 -0,01 0,02 -0,16 -0,15 EU10 -0,17 0,37 -0,26 -0,08 -0,30 Capital Stock EU25 0,01 0,01 0,00 -0,03 -0,05 EU15 0,01 0,00 0,01 -0,03 -0,04 EU10 -0,04 0,05 0,00 -0,04 -0,10 Car Exports EU25 0,03 -2,05 -6,94 -4,76 -4,48 EU15 -0,04 -1,62 -6,60 -3,94 -3,66 EU10 -0,05 -1,32 -9,18 -7,82 -7,88 Car Imports EU25 -0,16 3,67 3,32 5,38 5,08 EU15 -0,11 3,29 2,65 4,44 4,15 EU10 -0,74 3,96 -2,01 4,30 4,29 Exports EU25 0,13 -0,06 0,34 0,24 0,24 EU15 0,11 -0,04 0,29 0,22 0,21 EU10 0,17 -0,03 0,33 0,22 0,26 Imports EU25 -0,10 0,09 -0,31 -0,21 -0,22 EU15 -0,08 0,08 -0,26 -0,18 -0,18 EU10 -0,11 0,18 -0,31 -0,15 -0,24 Real GDP EU25 0,00 -0,07 -0,04 -0,12 -0,13 EU15 0,00 -0,07 -0,04 -0,11 -0,12 EU10 0,01 -0,20 -0,01 -0,35 -0,36 Productivity EU25 0,01 0,02 0,00 -0,01 -0,02 EU15 0,01 0,01 0,01 -0,01 -0,02 EU10 -0,02 0,08 -0,03 -0,01 -0,06 Real Wage Rate EU25 0,01 0,08 -0,07 -0,08 -0,10 EU15 0,01 0,08 -0,06 -0,08 -0,09 EU10 -0,05 0,19 -0,17 -0,18 -0,25 Real Interest Rate EU25 -0,01 0,07 -0,08 -0,07 -0,07 EU15 -0,01 0,06 -0,07 -0,06 -0,06 EU10 -0,01 0,14 -0,16 -0,14 -0,14 Disposable Income EU25 -0,03 0,01 -0,06 -0,06 -0,06 EU15 -0,02 0,01 -0,06 -0,06 -0,06 EU10 -0,07 0,04 -0,11 -0,08 -0,12 Tax Revenues EU25 -0,05 0,05 -0,23 -0,34 -0,38 EU15 -0,04 0,04 -0,22 -0,33 -0,37 EU10 -0,16 0,18 -0,42 -0,44 -0,58 Social Welfare EU25 -0.08 EU15 -0.07 EU10 -0.16 Source: Calculations of PACE-T. It is not surprising anymore that car imports and exports experience the largest changes of all macroeconomic variables compared to the baseline. Due to the increased car purchase prices, car exports in all three regions decline vis-à-vis the baseline. In 2020 car exports are 7,88% in the EU10, 3,66% in the EU15 and 4,48% in the EU25 below
- 110 - their baseline values. This reduction is larger than in scenario 120g-low costs but smaller than in scenario 120g-high costs. One observation is worth mentioning. While in scenario 120g-high costs the percentage change in car exports is very close in all three countries, the scenarios 120g-low costs and 130g-high costs show much larger discrepancies between the regions. The explanation is very straightforward when one considers the development of percentage car cost increases over time. In all scenarios the percentage cost increase in the EU15 is the largest in 2014. Afterwards, these percentages start to get smaller. In the EU10 however, the percentages remain almost identical in 2014 and afterwards. It is now easy to see that in scenarios 120g-low costs and 130g-high costs the percentage car cost increases in the EU15 after 2014 shrink very fast and therefore changes in car exports between the three regions are rather large. In the 120g-high costs scenario the development of the percentage car cost increases is more flat (as in the EU10 in all scenarios) and hence changes in car exports are very similar among the three regions. Car imports of course behave opposite to exports. Given constant car purchase costs outside the EU, an increase in purchase costs in the EU countries leads to increasing car imports with respect to the baseline. The simulation results suggest that in 2020 car imports in the EU10 are increased by 4,29%, in the EU15 by 4,15% and in the EU25 by 5,08% compared to the baseline values. Lower consumption demand increases exports and reduces imports. The simulation results show very comparable magnitudes of the expected changes. Exports in the EU10 are 0,26%, in the EU15 0,21% and in the EU25 0,24% above their respective year-2020 baseline value. The corresponding decrease in imports is 0,24% in the EU10, 0,18% in the EU15 and 0,22% in the EU25. Given these changes in the macroeconomic variables, real GDP is expected to decrease over time compared to the baseline. This decrease amounts to 0,36% in the EU10, 0,12% in the EU15 and 0,13% in the EU25 in 2020. As before, the macroeconomic developments hardly affect productivity, real wage and interest rates. Real wage rates in 2020 are 0,25% in the EU10, 0,09% in the EU15 and 0,10% in the EU25 below the baseline values. Interest rates decrease by even less. The reduction in 2020 amounts to 0,14% in the EU10, 0,06% in the EU15 and 0,07% in the EU25. Comparable to the previous scenarios, the disposable income of the representative agent is hardly affected over time. The small deviations from the baseline mainly reflect the observed changes in labour and capital remuneration. In 2020 the change in disposable income, compared to the respective baseline values, is -0,12% in the EU10 and -0,06% in the EU15 and the EU25.
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On first sight it seems surprising that the decrease in tax revenues is almost identical to the 120g-low costs scenario. One might assume that the smaller reduction in fuel consumption, compared to the baseline, as assumed in the 130g-high costs scenario might have a very small effect on tax revenues. The explanation of course is that the higher percentage increase in car purchase costs presses down the demand for transportation service by more than in the 120g-low costs scenario. This in parts offsets the somewhat improved impact of fairly unchanged fuel consumption so that in sum tax revenues in the 130g-high costs scenario are affected almost identically. Therefore, revenues in 2020 are reduced by 0,58% in the EU10, by 0,37% in the EU15 and by 0,38% in the EU25 relative to the baseline. Of course, welfare in this scenario is again negatively affected. But identical to the previous findings welfare losses are very moderate. Thus, welfare is expected to decline by 0,16% in the EU10, by 0,07% in the EU15 and by 0,08% in the EU25. This change is again in the middle of the two other scenarios.
Sectoral developments We now turn again to the sectoral employment, investment and capital effects of the considered scenario (see Table 6.13). It is not worth to go into too deep detail of the sectoral changes since the qualitative effects are obviously identical to the two previous scenarios. However, it is very interesting to see that the effects in the P_C sector are now much more moderate than even in the 120g-low costs scenario, which assumed rather modest cost increases for car purchases. The findings in the 130g-high costs scenario for the P_C sector show that it is not so much the decrease in transport demand that determines the magnitude of changes but much more the reduced fuel consumption in order to reach the 130g CO2/km target. The simulation results now show that employment in the P_C sector in all three regions is reduced between 1,01% and 1,32% in 2020 compared to the baseline. In the two other scenarios the percentage change amounts to more than 2%. The explanation is again straightforward. The 130g-high costs scenario assumes very modest reductions in fuel consumption and thus average fuel costs. Consequently, employment in the P_C sector is also reduced very moderately. The increase in employment in the MVH sector in 2020 is very close to the values in the 120g-low costs scenario. Sectoral employment effects in the other economic sectors are again very small. As before, sectoral shifts in investment reflect the fact that in the 130g-high costs scenario fuel consumption is reduced very moderately. Therefore, investment in the EU15 and EU25 in 2020 in the P_C sector decreases by 1,70% and 1,87%, respectively, compared to the baseline. In the EU10 the reduction of 3,01% is almost twice as large. The reason is of course that average fuel costs in this region are reduced by more than in
- 112 - the other two regions (see explanation above). Investment changes in the MVH sector are again very close to those in the 120g-low costs scenario. The other sectors also experience moderate shifts in investment. The smaller deviations of sectoral investment from the baseline also become obvious for sectoral capital. The simulations show that capital in the P_C sector is reduced by between 0,93% and 1,41% in 2020 in the three regions vis-à-vis the baseline. In the MVH sector capital increases by 0,30% in the EU10, by 0,63% in the EU15 and by 0,57% in the EU25 in the same year while the percentage changes in the other sectors are again of smaller magnitude.
Table 6.13 Sectoral effects of scenario 130g-high costs relative to baseline (in %)
2006 2010 2014 2018 2020 Employment EU25 MVH 0,01 0,64 -0,25 0,68 0,65 P_C -0,02 0,10 -0,45 -0,83 -1,03 SER -0,02 -0,02 -0,03 -0,05 -0,05 others 0,02 -0,02 0,04 0,01 0,01 EU15 MVH 0,01 0,64 -0,25 0,68 0,66 P_C -0,02 0,10 -0,45 -0,82 -1,01 SER -0,02 -0,02 -0,03 -0,05 -0,05 others 0,02 -0,02 0,04 0,01 0,01 EU10 MVH 0,00 0,73 -0,61 0,43 0,39 P_C -0,06 0,12 -0,51 -1,01 -1,32 SER -0,05 -0,01 -0,07 -0,09 -0,10 others 0,03 -0,01 0,06 0,05 0,06 Investment EU25 MVH 0,08 2,53 -3,95 4,75 1,95 P_C -0,09 0,63 -2,72 -1,51 -1,87 SER -0,03 0,02 -0,09 -0,20 -0,19 others 0,10 -0,07 0,18 -0,20 -0,16 EU15 MVH 0,13 2,38 -3,60 4,63 1,97 P_C -0,04 0,55 -2,62 -1,42 -1,70 SER 0,00 -0,03 -0,05 -0,21 -0,16 others 0,12 -0,12 0,20 -0,21 -0,14 EU10 MVH -0,19 3,33 -5,60 5,33 1,86 P_C -0,48 1,15 -3,45 -2,11 -3,01 SER -0,37 0,55 -0,57 -0,19 -0,42 others -0,05 0,20 0,07 -0,16 -0,28 Capital EU25 MVH 0,02 0,67 -0,30 0,61 0,57 P_C -0,02 0,12 -0,43 -0,82 -1,00 SER -0,01 0,00 -0,02 -0,07 -0,09 others 0,02 0,01 0,04 -0,01 -0,03 EU15 MVH 0,03 0,65 -0,24 0,66 0,63 P_C -0,01 0,11 -0,41 -0,79 -0,93 SER 0,00 -0,01 -0,02 -0,06 -0,08 others 0,03 0,00 0,04 -0,01 -0,02 EU10 MVH -0,05 0,78 -0,61 0,38 0,30 P_C -0,10 0,17 -0,51 -1,07 -1,41 SER -0,09 0,04 -0,07 -0,13 -0,20 others -0,01 0,03 0,06 0,01 -0,05 Source: Calculations of PACE-T.
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All in all, the 130g-high costs scenario reveals macroeconomic effects that are in the middle of the two other scenarios. This is of course due to the fact that purchase price increases are of medium range. At the same time average fuel costs decrease more moderately. This for most explains why sectoral shifts are much more dampened than in the other scenarios. Furthermore, in contrast to the other scenarios CO2 emissions are reduced to a smaller extent.
6.2.4 Comparison of the scenario results This section resumes the most important findings of the socioeconomic analysis with PACE-T of the 120g-low costs, 120g-high costs and 130g-high costs scenarios. Therefore, Table 6.14 summarises the year-2020 percentage changes of the most important macroeconomic variables relative to their baseline values.
Table 6.14 Macroeconomic effects in 2020 compared relative to baseline (in %)
120g IEEP(2004) 120g TNO(2006d) 130g TNO(2006d)
Transport Demand EU25 0,05 -1,09 -0,53 EU15 0,10 -0,97 -0,47 EU10 -0,33 -1,97 -0,92 Real Consumption EU25 -0,05 -0,32 -0,15 EU15 -0,03 -0,28 -0,12 EU10 -0,17 -0,62 -0,30
Investment EU25 0,00 -0,34 -0,16 EU15 0,00 -0,33 -0,15 EU10 -0,13 -0,64 -0,30 Car Exports EU25 -3,09 -12,34 -4,48 EU15 -2,37 -10,92 -3,66 EU10 -5,77 -13,16 -7,88
Car Imports EU25 4,37 14,05 5,08 EU15 3,64 12,29 4,15 EU10 4,25 7,25 4,29 Real GDP EU25 -0,06 -0,31 -0,13 EU15 -0,05 -0,29 -0,12 EU10 -0,22 -0,72 -0,36
Tax Revenues EU25 -0,48 -0,97 -0,38
EU15 -0,48 -0,96 -0,37
EU10 -0,59 -1,19 -0,58
Social Welfare EU25 -0,03 -0,19 -0,08 EU15 -0,03 -0,17 -0,07 EU10 -0,08 -0,34 -0,16 Source: Calculations of PACE-T.
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As already mentioned several times the macroeconomic effects are largest in the 120g- high costs scenario and more moderate in the 120g-low costs scenario while the 130g- high costs scenario ranges in the middle of the two. This makes clear that it is mainly the assumed car purchase costs that matter for the changes in the macroeconomic variables. The percentage increases in purchase costs, underlying each scenario, in order to reach the planned CO2 emissions target, dominate the assumed reduction in fuel consumption and thus average fuel costs. Only in the very long run the increasing reductions in fuel costs start to show counterbalancing effects. This only becomes obvious in the 120g-low costs scenario where transport demand in 2020 starts to increase relative to the baseline. As becomes obvious from Table 6.14, transport demand, real consumption, investment and real GDP are hardly affected by the assumed changes in car cost items. Most positive or negative changes of the macroeconomic variables are below 1% relative to their respective baseline values. Only the 120g-high costs scenario reveals decreases in transport demand in 2020 of almost 2% in the EU10. But all in all, these changes are fairly small if one takes into account the fact that all these macroeconomic variables increase during the baseline by more than 50% (see Table 3.18). A very important finding is of course that car imports and exports react to a much larger extent than all other macroeconomic variables. From an economic point of view this is not surprising. Car exports and imports are determined by the relative international differences in car purchase costs. Increasing car purchase prices in the EU countries while leaving those in the other regions (USA, JAP, ROW) unchanged immediately translates into reduced exports and increased imports just because cars from outside are cheaper. Consequently, car exports in 2020 in the 120g-low costs scenario decrease between 2,4% in the EU15 and 5,8% in the EU10 compared to their respective baseline values. Car imports in the same scenario increase by between 3,6% in the EU15 and 4,2% in the EU10. The deviations are even larger in the 120g-high costs scenario. Here car export reductions in 2020 range between 10,9% in the EU15 and 13,2% in the EU10. The wedge for car import changes is even bigger. Car imports are expected to increase between 7,2% in the EU10 and 14,0% in the EU25. These seem to be very large changes compared to the other variables. Indeed they are. But one has to interpret these simulation results very cautiously. In a CGE model like PACE-T changes in car purchase costs affect the relative position of one country to the others. Thus increasing purchase costs in one country, leaving those in other countries unchanged, automatically leads to export losses and import increases. The reason is that the representative agent tries to minimize the expenditures on transport services and other commodities. Car exports and imports therefore immediately adjust to the changed international price ratios. Of course, the model cannot capture the behaviour of
- 115 - agents such as just sticking to a special brand of cars or assuming that only cars from the home country offer a certain quality. In this respect the simulation results have to be seen as rational economic behaviour. In reality the international adjustment to national price changes might be more sluggish. Furthermore, decreasing car exports relative to the baseline do not mean that car exports absolutely decrease over time. They just do not grow as much as in the baseline transition path. Take e.g. car exports in the EU10 in 2020 in the 120g-high costs scenario. They decrease by 13,2% with respect to their baseline value. As reported in Table 3.18 car exports in the EU10 increase by 66,4% over the considered period in the baseline. Consequently, car exports in 2020 in the scenario are now only 44,5% above the year-2000 value. Having these interpretations in mind, the large effects on car exports and imports on first sight become less dramatic. Finally, all three scenarios also imply a reduction in tax revenues. This is mainly due to reduced revenues from fuel taxation but also to lower revenues of other taxes on passenger transportation, which decline with transportation demand. The simulation results again suggest that the effects are also very modest. In the 120g-low costsscenario and in the 130g-high costs scenario revenue losses are fairly identical and range between 0,4% to 0,6% in 2020 relative to the baseline. The decrease in tax revenues in the 120g-high costs scenariois approximately twice as high. Here the reduction is between 1,0% and 1,2%. These are very moderate values.
To conclude, all scenarios analysed here which reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars reveal relatively small effects on the macroeconomic variables with the exception of car exports and imports. This also means that social welfare losses are fairly small. But of course the magnitude of the effects heavily depends on the assumed cost changes. A moderate cost increase in tendency implies smaller effects than a large cost increase. Reducing emissions to a lower target could be an alternative in the middle.
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6.3 Sectoral Analysis
6.3.1 Determinations on the three simulated scenarios
Basic input data for B&D simulation are the manufacturer costs of CO2 emission reduction divided by brand and segments which are provided by IEEP and TNO. Furthermore the simulations apply data of the B&D data pool which will be described in detail in the reports of the FORCAR simulation runs. The first scenario called “120g – IEEP(2004) / 120g-low-cost” is based on the 2004 IEEP/TNO/CAIR report called “Service contract to carry out economic analysis and business impact assessment of CO2 emissions reduction measures in the automotive sector”. The target to be reached in this scenario is 120g CO2/km for new sold cars in 2012. All manufacturer costs in that scenario are provided by IEEP 2004. The second scenario called “120g-TNO (2006d) / 120g-high-cost” do not differ from the first scenario with respect to the reduction target but to the data source. In this scenario data are used from part A of the project funded by the European Commission General Direction “Enterprise” and is called “Review and analysis of the reduction potential and costs of technological and other measures to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars”. Within this project TNO/IEEP/LAT have quantified costs for fuel reduction based on technical measures in order to reach the 120g target. The cost quantification of the technical measures in the third scenario called “130g- TNO(2006d)/130g-high-cost” do also come from the TNO/IEEP/LAT report called “Review and analysis of the reduction potential and costs of technological and other measures to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars”. The only difference between the second and the third scenario is the CO2 target of 2012 which should be reached as an average of the overall car fleet by each car producer for new sold cars. The target in this scenario is 130g CO2/km. All scenarios act on the assumption of reaching an average overall car fleet of 140g CO2/km.in 2008. Therefore the development of costs are divided into two major steps describing the first increase in manufacture technology costs in 2008 and the second one in reaching the target of 120g / 130g CO2/km in 2012.
Besides the development of technology costs for reaching the respective CO2 targets, the split of segments plays a basic role for the simulation. The split of segments – divided by small, medium and large cars as well as petrol and diesel cars – has been taken over by the input of TNO and is based on the POLK data.
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Table 6.15: Basic split of segment by size and fuel-type (in mill. cars)
ACEA JAMA KAMA OTHER ALL
2002 PCGS 2.954,78 413,12 84,65 0,91 3.453,46 PCGM 2.772,74 553,55 107,63 99,71 3.533,63 PCGL 547,316 183,98 39,48 11,12 781,90 PCDS 921,76 36,51 0,0 0,35 958,62 PCDM 3.242,31 151,64 20,41 29,69 3.444,04 PCDL 771,70 121,53 37,88 0,25 931,35 2008 PCGS 2.606,48 364,42 74,67 0,81 3.046,38 PCGM 2.445,89 488,30 94,94 87,96 3.117,10 PCGL 552,51 185,54 39,81 11,21 789,07 PCDS 1.508,54 112,87 15,19 0,53 1.637,14 PCDM 3.939,19 260,28 40,97 49,40 4,4289,84 PCDL 847,65 138,77 42,31 0,85 1.029,58 2012 PCGS 2.423.45 338,83 69,43 0,75 2.832,46 PCGM 2.274,14 454,01 88,28 81,78 2.898,22 PCGL 546,78 183,42 39,36 11,09 780,64 PCDS 1.858,65 157,84 24,08 0,65 2.041,22 PCDM 4.370,21 324,96 53,16 61,16 4.809,48 PCDL 910,24 154,06 46,09 1.47 1,111,86 Source: TNO/POLK
6.3.2 Scenario: 120g-IEEP(2004) / 120g-low-cost-scenario The 120g-IEEP / 120g-low-cost-scenario describes the effects that are caused by achieving the objectives of CO2 emissions reduction. The targets in that scenario are set for reaching 140g CO2/km in 2008 and the final target of 120g CO2/km in 2012. Therefore two stages of technology enhancements have to be taken. In order to reach the target of 140g or 120g respectively additional technology has to be innovated and installed in cars. That technology is intrinsically tied to a boost of cost for all manufactures. The IEEP input delivers the structure of extra costs to the automotive manufacturer (OEM) in each of the three segments (Small, Medium and Large) as well as for the mode of driving (diesel or petrol). The increase of manufacturer costs result in rising retail prices in each segment. The rise of manufacturing costs is caused by impacts to the production process at the OEM and the manufacturing process of preliminary products at the automotive supplier industry.
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6.3.2.1 Input-parameters The B&D simulation uses the following main input parameters:
• Production capacities, actual production values and a FORCAR run-up production forecast up to 2020. These parameters are based on the life time cycle of existing products and future product plans of the OEM. All values and forecast simulations are separated by brands, models, segments and regions. These input parameters are defined for each of the following regions as a whole: EU15, EU10, EU25 and NON-EU Eastern European countries including EU candidate countries (marked as NON-EU for simplification in the simulation). • Number of employees of the automotive industry in all associated countries. The data are split by country, OEM and supplier industry. They are aggregated to EU15, EU10, EU25 and NON-EU for the before mentioned reasons. • Labour costs for each sector of automotive industry as OEM and supplier industry. They are also aggregated to average values for the different contemplated regions. The FORCAR-tool delivers a forecast of labour costs for the countries and regions. The applied method refers to time series analysis. All applied data of time series are provided by statistics of VDA and EUROSTAT. • Retail prices and manufacturer costs as provided by IEEP.
6.3.2.2 Procedure of FORCAR-simulation The procedure is summarized by the following Figure 6.3:
Figure 6.1: Procedure of FORCAR-simulation OEM
Source: FORCAR
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Basic production and employment assumption Starting from the output-figures by brand, model and plant all data are first aggregated to the segments SMALL, MEDIUM and LARGE. Additionally, as above mentioned, the aggregation finally refers to the main regions EU25 and Non-EU. Numbers of employees per region are allocated by share of production in SMALL- and MEDIUM- LARGE-segment.
Regional Analysis In one first step, we analyse the re-allocation of car production from EU15 to EU 10 countries. In the second step, we analyse the re-allocation of car production from EU25 to NON-EU. In this environment, we assume that a second shift after EU15 to EU 10 and then to NON-EU will not take place. The reason is that once a plant has been shifted from EU15 to EU 10 it is implausible that it is once more shifted within a period of ten years. Investment cost, aid payments and amortisation on one hand and lower cost differences between EU10 and NON-EU thwart that procedure. Note: Only the final results for the EU25 region are displayed. The intermediate step from EU15 to EU10 is only used for plausibility reasons in the simulation but not displayed as an effect. All calculations have been made for each segment SMALL, MEDIUM and LARGE. Calculation of manufacturer costs is on basis of IEEP input. For calculating employment-effects, we did not differ between diesel and petrol cars.
Table 6.16: Retail prices by segment in the 120g-IEEP/ low-cost- scenario (in €)
2002 2008 2012
PCGS 10.888,02 11.355,02 11.852,02 PCGM 23.435,73 23.985,73 25.020,73 PCGL 21.342,40 42.182,40 44.370,40 PCDS 12.065,76 12.350,76 12.650,76 PCDM 19.151,64 19.478,64 20.227,64 PCDL 28.136,97 28.986,97 30.607,97
SMALL 11.143,91 11.703,08 12.186,55 MEDIUM 21.321,19 21.375,38 22.029,92 LARGE 25.427,11 34.712,19 36.284,87 Source: IEEP/FORCAR
Retail price / 1,44 = manufacturer costs
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Presumption: Between the two main target steps 2008 and 2012 no modification of technology that forces additional manufacturer costs
Labour cost per region In car industry the cost split of the product is as follows: 20% Labour cost, 80% other cost (Materials, Administration, energy etc.). That is one result of former B&D-forecast studies. FORCAR-simulation applies this result. Furthermore FORCAR is forecasting the total labour costs in the considered areas by using time series of cost development and macro economic input-factors. The re-allocation process in the European car industry can be best illustrated by using data of the years 2002 and 2004. Especially the year 2004 - as starting point of the EU-enlargement – shows important changes in allocation pattern of the carmakers and supplier. So that data cluster deliver cost advantages by region and segment. FORCAR calculates a linear relationship between labor cost and employment within car industry. The coefficients of the calculated line are based on a data-series starting from 2000. The results from that 120g-IEEP / low-cost-scenario simulation are illustrated subsequent. At first the effects to OEM are illustrated over all three simulated segments followed by the effects on supplier industry over all scenarios.
Note: Effects on 140g-target in 2008/2009
In the FORCAR-simulation effects on the sub-ordinate target of 140g CO2-emmisssin in 2008/2009 are masked out. Although there could be effects on cost advantage and job shifting in the CO2 based scenarios all computed value will be unconsidered. Shift of jobs and plant in that space of time only have influence on the baseline-scenario. On the one hand the 140g target is based on a voluntary self-commitment of the car- manufacturer that is common for a long-time. On the other hand all product and production plan for the period until 2008/2009 are adopted. So even if there would be regimentation within the next year by the EU-commission implementation into products and production could not be made within that period. Therefore we introduce impact not until 2008/2009. Thus all values up to 2008/2009 correspond to the baseline-scenario.
6.3.2.3 Effects on OEM That part of FORCAR simulation of 120g-IEEP scenario describes the shift of production and jobs in the automotive industry from the EU25 to the NON-EU countries based on the cost differences. Calculation of manufacturer costs is on the basis of IEEP input.
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Table 6.17: Labour cost advantages in the 120g-IEEP/ low-cost-scenario NON-EU vs. EU 25 per car (in €)
SMALL MEDIUM LARGE
2002 Manufacturer costs 7.739 14.806 17.658 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.548 2.961 3.532 Labour costs NON-EU per car 111 213 254 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.436 2.748 3.277 2004 Manufacturer costs 7.950 14.820 19.900 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.590 2.964 3.980 Labour costs NON-EU per car 126 234 314 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.464 2.730 3.666 2008 Manufacturer costs 8.127 14.844 24.106 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.625 2.969 4.821 Labour costs NON-EU per car 169 309 501 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.456 2.660 4.320 2012 Manufacturer costs 8.463 15.299 25.198 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.693 3.060 5.040 Labour costs NON-EU per car 232 419 690 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.461 2.641 4.349 2020 Manufacturer costs 8.463 15.299 25.198 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.693 3.060 5.040 Labour costs NON-EU per car 381 688 1.134 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.312 2.371 3.906 Source: FORCAR
Movement of jobs from EU25 to NON-EU / SMALL-car-segment Within this part of the FORCAR simulation it is illustrated how shift of production from EU25 to NON-EU – depending on cost differences between both areas – influences the job situation in SMALL-car production. The illustration below visualises a slight increase of employment at OEM outside the EU in the NON-EU countries. Moderate rising retail prices and manufacturer costs up to 2012 will lead to a marginal increase of job migration towards the NON-EU countries. The simulation only shows a cost-advantage-increase from 1.436 Euro per car in 2002 up to 1.461 in 2012. So the effects of the CO2-regulation in that segment are negligible, because the effect of the baseline are so strong that further factors based on
CO2 do not carry weight additionally.
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Figure 6.2: Development of jobs in EU25 – 120g-IEEP-low-cost-scenario / SMALL- car-segment
SMALL-Segment: Baseline-Scenario vs.120g-low-cost-scenario
700.000
675.000
650.000
625.000 car production in EU25 in production car
600.000
Total number of employees in SMALL- in of employees number Total 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline 120g low-cost-scenario
Source: FORCAR
Table 6.18: Number of employees in at car-manufacturer SMALL-car-segment Baseline- vs. 120g low-cost-scenario
Number of employees EU25 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline-scenario 651.754 657.914 677.033 636.004 632.965 120g low-cost-scenario 651.754 657.914 677.033 633.262 630.223 Source: FORCAR
Movement of jobs from EU25 to NON-EU / MEDIUM-car-segment Within this part of the FORCAR simulation it is illustrated how shift of production from EU25 to NON-EU – depending on cost differences between both areas – influences the job situation in MEDIUM-car production. Results of the 120g-IEEP-low-cost-scenario shows no shift of jobs from the EU25 countries to the NON-EU countries in the MEDIUM-car-segment. Advantages of costs regarding to IEEP input-parameter in relation to boost of technology and manufacturer costs are too low. Therefore a shift of production to other countries is not reasonable, the exchange-barrier too high.
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Figure 6.3: Development of jobs in EU25 – 120g-IEEP-low-cost-scenario / MEDIUM-car-segment
MEDIUM-Segment: Baseline-Scenario vs.120g-low-cost-scenario
1.000.000
950.000
900.000
production in EU25 850.000
800.000 Total number of employees in MEDIUM-car MEDIUM-car in employees of number Total 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline 120g low-cost-scenario
Source: FORCAR
Table 6.19: Number of employees in at car-manufacturer MEDIUM-car-segment Baseline- vs. 120g low-cost-scenario
Number of employees EU25 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline-scenario 994.545 952.493 948.900 919.141 871.245 120g low-cost-scenario 994.545 952.493 948.900 919.141 871.245 Source: FORCAR
Movement of jobs from EU25 to NON-EU LARGE-car-segment Within this part of the FORCAR simulation it is illustrated how shift of production from EU25 to NON-EU – depending on cost differences between both areas – influences the job situation in LARGE-car production. The segment of LARGE cars contains the highest level of premium-brands and products of all the three segments. Therefore a shift of production from EU25 outside the EU to NON-EU countries is a not considered alternative for premium-carmakers because of the image-factor. Furthermore premium-brand-customers expect to have the highest level of technology inside their car. So it is an important competitive factor for premium-brands to be the leader in technology in the car market.
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Figure 6.4: Development of jobs in EU25 – 120g-IEEP-low-cost-scenario / LARGE-segment
LARGE-Segment: Baseline-Scenario vs.120g-low-cost-scenario
350.000
325.000
300.000
275.000
250.000 production in EU25 in production 225.000
200.000
Total number of employees in LARGE-car LARGE-car in of employees number Total 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline 120g low-cost-scenario
Source: FORCAR
Superior profit margins at premium-brands allow balance of rising manufacturer costs at a higher level than at volume-brands. However the numbers of SUV and MPV in the segment of LARGE cars which are predominantly non-premium-products are causing a shift of jobs into NON-EU countries as shown in the figure above. The decrease of jobs in EU25 that belong to production of large cars is relatively small even if we forecast a strong growing number of produced cars in the baseline-scenario between 2004 and 2008 and a further minor increase between 2008 and 2012. So between 2002 and 2012 a total shift of around 7.000 jobs from EU25 to NON-EU will take place in the LARGE- segment additional to the baseline-scenario.
Table 6.20: Number of employees in at car-manufacturer LARGE-car-segment Baseline- vs. 120g low-cost-scenario
Number of employees EU25 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline-scenario 235.211 293.193 340.282 340.833 318.972 120g low-cost-scenario 235.211 293.193 340.282 333.121 311.261 Source: FORCAR
6.3.2.4 Movement of jobs from EU25 to NON-EU - SUPPLIER industry Within this part of the FORCAR simulation it is illustrated how shift of production from EU25 to NON-EU – depending on cost differences between both areas – influences the job situation in the supplier-industry.
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Barriers in shifting plants from one region to another are lower for the supplier industry than for the OEM. So it is easier to build up new plants in new regions. The supplier assembly lines are less complex compared to the assembly lines of OEM. Further, a higher number of employees in the supplier industry are unskilled workers. Therefore the labour cost factor plays a major role in investment decisions. In particular, the cost pressure by OEM is pushing the supplier. That is an effect which is also shown inside the supplier pyramid. The main suppliers at TIER 1 level pass on the cost pressure to downstream suppliers at TIER 2 till TIER 5. As described above a migration to the Eastern European countries is a typical option used for a long time.
Figure 6.5: Procedure of FORCAR-simulation supplier-industry
Source: FORCAR
In that simulation no differentiation between the three segments SMALL, MEDIUM and LARGE is done due to the fact that an assignment of jobs and added values to a determined segment is not possible. For example a product like an ABS-modul produced by BOSCH is used in cars of all segments. The simulation arrives at the conclusion that a total of 39.800 jobs in the supplier industry move from EU15 to EU10 between 2002 and 2012 with the biggest part as a result of rising technology costs in 2008 respectively 2012.
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Table 6.21: Labour cost advantages in the 120g-IEEP/ low-cost-scenario NON-EU vs. EU 25 per car (in Euro)/ Supplier-industry
SMALL
2002 Manufacturer costs 12.799 Supplier share 70% 8.960 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.792 Labour costs NON-EU per car 129 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.663 2004 Manufacturer costs 13.308 Supplier share 72,5% 9.649 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.930 Labour costs NON-EU per car 152 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.777 2008 Manufacturer costs 13.793 Supplier share 75% 10.345 Labour costs EU25 per car 2.069 Labour costs NON-EU per car 197 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.872 2012 Manufacturer costs 14.291 Supplier share 80% 11.433 Labour costs EU25 per car 2.287 Labour costs NON-EU per car 286 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 2.001 2020 Manufacturer costs 14.291 Supplier share 80% 11.433 Labour costs EU25 per car 2.287 Labour costs NON-EU per car 405 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.882 Source: FORCAR
Besides the migration from EU15 to EU10 a movement of jobs in the supplier industry from EU25 to NON-EU countries has been taken place in the past, too and will resume itself in the future. Due to arising cost pressure suppliers also search for the lowest labour cost countries in that scenario. An effect that is shown inside the supplier pyramid. The main supplier at TIER 1 level passes on the cost pressure to downstream supplier at TIER 2 till TIER 5. Another typical effect for migration of suppliers is the trend to follow the OEM to its production areas. With the emerging new markets in Eastern Europe as Russia and their growing car industry suppliers try to conquer new markets. In amount the FORCAR simulation adds up to a total of another 29.500 jobs in the supplier industry moving from EU25 to NON-EU between 2002 and 2012 caused by
CO2-low-cost-scenario.
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Figure 6.6: Development of jobs in EU25 – 120g-IEEP-low-cost-scenario / Supplier-industry
Supplier-Industry: Baseline-Scenario vs.120g-low-cost-scenario
850.000
825.000
800.000
775.000
750.000 Industry in EU25 in Industry
725.000
700.000 Total number of employees Supplier- of employees number Total 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline 120g low-cost-scenario
Source: FORCAR
Table 6.22: Number of employees in the Supplier-industry (Baseline- vs. 120g low- cost-scenario)
Number of employees EU25 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline-scenario 796.424 820.237 814.486 796.178 773.793 120g low-cost-scenario 796.424 820.237 814.486 766.640 744.255 Source: FORCAR
6.3.3 Scenario: 120g-TNO (2006d) / 120g-high-cost-sceanrio The 120g-TNO / 120g-high-cost-scenario describes the effects that are caused by achieving the aim of CO2 emissions reduction. The targets in that scenario are set for reaching 140g CO2/km in 2008 and the final target of 120g CO2/km in 2012. Therefore two stages of technology enhancements have to be taken. In order to reach the target of 140g or 120g respectively additional technology has to be innovated and installed in cars. That technology is intrinsically tied to a boost of cost for all manufactures. The TNO input delivers the structure of extra costs to the automotive manufacturer (OEM) in each of the three segments (small, medium and large) as well as for the mode of driving (diesel or petrol). The increase of manufacturer costs result in rising retail prices in each segment. The rise of manufacturing costs is caused by impacts to the production process at the OEM and the manufacturing process of preliminary products at the automotive supplier industry.
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6.3.3.1 Input-parameters The B&D simulation uses the following main input parameters:
• Production capacities, actual production values and a FORCAR run-up production forecast up to 2020. These parameters are based on the life time cycle of existing products and future product plans of the OEM. All values and forecast simulations are separated by brands, models, segments and regions. These input parameters are defined for each of the following regions as a whole: EU15, EU10, EU25 and NON-EU Eastern European countries including EU candidate countries (marked as NON-EU for simplification in the simulation). • Number of employees of the automotive industry in all associated countries. The data are split by country, OEM and supplier industry. They are aggregated to EU15, EU10, EU25 and NON-EU for the before mentioned reasons. • Labour costs for each sector of automotive industry as OEM and supplier industry. They are also aggregated to average values for the different contemplated regions. The FORCAR-tool delivers a forecast of labour costs for the countries and regions. The applied method refers to time series analysis. All applied data of time series are provided by statistics of VDA and EUROSTAT. • Retail prices and manufacturer costs as provided by TNO.
6.3.3.2 Procedure of FORCAR-simulation The procedure is summarized by the following figure:
Figure 6.7: Procedure of FORCAR-simulation OEM
Source: FORCAR
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Basic production and employment assumption Starting from the output-figures by brand, model and plant all data are first aggregated to the segments SMALL, MEDIUM and LARGE. Additionally, as above mentioned, the aggregation finally refers to the main regions EU25 and Non-EU. Numbers of employees per region are allocated by share of production in SMALL- and MEDIUM- LARGE-segment.
Regional Analysis In one first step, we analyse the re-allocation of car production from EU15 to EU 10 countries. In the second step, we analyse the re-allocation of car production from EU25 to NON-EU. In this environment, we assume that a second shift after EU15 to EU 10 and then to NON-EU will not take place. The reason is that once a plant has been shifted from EU15 to EU 10 it is implausible that it is once more shifted within a period of ten years. Investment cost, aid payments and amortisation on one hand and lower cost differences between EU10 and NON-EU thwart that procedure. Note: Only the final results for the EU25 region are displayed. The intermediate step from EU15 to EU10 is only used for plausibility reasons in the simulation but not displayed as an effect. All calculations have been made for each segment SMALL, MEDIUM and LARGE. Calculation of manufacturer costs is on basis of TNO input. For calculating employment-effects, we did not differ between diesel and petrol cars.
Table 6.23: Retail prices by segment in the 120g-TNO scenario (in €)
2002 2008 2012
PCGS 10.888,02 12.088,77 13.591,29 PCGM 23.435,73 24.779,88 26.734,78 PCGL 41.342,40 43.176,82 45.535,65 PCDS 12.065,76 12.480,42 14.086,29 PCDM 19.151,64 19.756,10 21.955,64 PCDL 28.136,97 29.038,39 31.808,69 SMALL 11.143,91 12.225,67 13.798,61 MEDIUM 21.321,19 21.870,28 23.752,67 LARGE 25.427,11 35.172,76 37.470,96 Source: TNO
Retail price / 1,44 = manufacturer costs Presumption: Between the two main target steps 2008 and 2012 no modification of technology that forces additional manufacturer costs.
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Labour cost per region In car industry the cost split of the product is as follows: 20% Labour cost, 80% other cost (Materials, Administration, energy etc.). That is one result of former B&D-forecast studies. FORCAR-simulation applies this result. Furthermore FORCAR is forecasting the total labour costs in the considered areas by using time series of cost development and macro economic input-factors. The re-allocation process in the European car industry can be best illustrated by using data of the years 2002 and 2004. Especially the year 2004 - as starting point of the EU-enlargement – shows important changes in allocation pattern of the carmakers and supplier. So that data cluster deliver cost advantages by region and segment. FORCAR calculates a linear relationship between labor cost and employment within car industry. The coefficients of the calculated line are based on a data-series starting from 2000. The results from that 120g-TNO / high-cost-scenario simulation are illustrated subsequent. At first the effects to OEM are illustrated over all three simulated segments followed by the effects on supplier industry over all scenarios.
Note: Effects on 140g-target in 2008/2009
In the FORCAR-simulation effects on the sub-ordinate target of 140g CO2 emission in 2008/2009 are masked out. Although there could be effects on cost advantage and job shifting in the CO2 based scenarios all computed value will be unconsidered. Shift of jobs and plant in that space of time only have influence on the baseline-scenario. On the one hand the 140g target is based on a voluntary self-commitment of the car- manufacturer that is common for a long-time. On the other hand all product and production plan for the period until 2008/2009 are adopted. So even if there would be regimentation within the next year by the EU-commission implementation into products and production could not be made within that period. Therefore we introduce impact not until 2008/2009. Thus all values up to 2008/2009 correspond to the baseline-scenario.
6.3.3.3 Effects on OEM That part of FORCAR simulation of 120g-TNO scenario describes the increase of jobs in the automotive industry in the NON-EU countries. Calculation of manufacturer costs is on the basis of TNO input.
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Table 6.24: Labour cost advantages in the 120g-TNO / high-cost-scenario NON-EU vs. EU 25 per car (in €)
SMALL MEDIUM LARGE
2002 Manufacturer costs 7.739 14.806 17.658 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.548 2.961 3.532 Labour costs NON-EU per car 111 213 254 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.436 2.748 3.277 2004 Manufacturer costs 7.989 15.050 19.914 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.598 3.010 3.983 Labour costs NON-EU per car 126 238 315 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.472 2.772 3.668 2008 Manufacturer costs 8.490 15.188 24.426 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.698 3.038 4.885 Labour costs NON-EU per car 177 316 508 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.521 2.722 4.377 2012 Manufacturer costs 9.582 16.495 26.021 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.916 3.299 5.204 Labour costs NON-EU per car 263 452 713 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.654 2.847 4.491 2020 Manufacturer costs 9.582 16.495 26.021 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.916 3.299 5.204 Labour costs NON-EU per car 431 742 1.171 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.485 2.557 4.033 Source: FORCAR
Movement of jobs from EU25 to NON-EU / SMALL-segment Within this part of the FORCAR simulation it is illustrated how shift of production from EU25 to NON-EU – depending on cost differences between both areas – influences the job situation in SMALL-car production. The illustration below visualises a continuous increase of employment at OEM inside the EU countries up to 2008 caused by rising production.. An intensification of retail price and manufacturer costs situation from 2008/2009 on will lead to an increase of job migration towards the NON-EU countries. Especially a total cost-advantage-increase from1.554 Euro per car in 2008 up to 1.654 in 2012 is given. In this period main share of job decrease in EU25 countries will occur. Nearly 19.000 jobs additionally to the baseline scenario will emerge.
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Figure 6.8: Development of jobs EU25 – scenario 120g-TNO-high-cost-scenario / SMALL-segment
SMALL-Segment: Baseline-Scenario vs.120g-high-cost-scenario
700.000
650.000
600.000
production EU25 in 550.000
500.000 Total number of employees SMALL-car in 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline 120g high-cost-scenario
Source: FORCAR
Table 6.25: Number of employees in at car-manufacturer SMALL-car-segment (Baseline- vs. 120g high-cost-scenario)
Number of employees EU25 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline-scenario 651.754 657.914 677.033 636.004 632.965 120g high-cost-scenario 651.754 657.914 677.033 617.185 614.145 Source: FORCAR
Movement of jobs from EU25 to NON-EU / MEDIUM-segment Within this part of the FORCAR simulation it is illustrated how shift of production from EU25 to NON-EU – depending on cost differences between both areas – influences the job situation in MEDIUM-car production. The simulation of the MEDIUM-segment shows an moderate effect on jobs between the year 2008/2009 and 2012. 11.500 jobs additionally to the baseline-scenario will move to NON-EU countries between in that period. Although there will be a cost advantage in the NON-EU countries of 2.850 Euro in 2012 the consequences in job shifting caused by that advantage is relatively low as we see a huge job decrease in the MEDIUM- segment already in the baseline-scenario.
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Figure 6.9: Development of jobs EU25 – scenario 120g-TNO-high-cost-scenario / MEDIUM-segment
MEDIUM-Segment: Baseline-Scenario vs.120g-high-cost-scenario
1.000.000
950.000
900.000
production EU25 in 850.000
800.000 Total number of employees in MEDIUM-car MEDIUM-car in employees of number Total 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline 120g high-cost-scenario
Source: FORCAR
Table 6.26: Number of employees in at car-manufacturer MEDIUM-car-segment Baseline- vs. 120g high-cost-scenario
Number of employees EU25 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline-scenario 994.545 952.493 948.900 919.141 871.245 120g high-cost-scenario 994.545 952.493 948.900 907.609 859.713 Source: FORCAR
Movement of jobs from EU25 to NON-EU / LARGE-segment Within this part of the FORCAR simulation it is illustrated how shift of production from EU25 to NON-EU – depending on cost differences between both areas – influences the job situation in LARGE-car production. As described in the 120g-low-cost-scenario the LARGE-car-segment contains the highest level of premium-brands and products of all the three segments. Therefore a shift of production from EU25 outside the EU to NON-EU countries is a not considered alternative for premium-carmakers because of the image-factor. Furthermore premium- brand-customers expect to have the highest level of technology inside their car. So it is an important competitive factor for premium-brands to be the leader in technology in the car market.
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Figure 6.10: Development of jobs EU25 – scenario 120g-TNO-high-cost-scenario / LARGE-segment
LARGE-Segment: Baseline-Scenario vs.120g-high-cost-scenario
350.000
325.000
300.000
275.000
250.000 production EU25 in 225.000
200.000
Total number of employees LARGE-car in 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline 120g high-cost-scenario
Source: FORCAR
Superior profit margins at premium-brands allow balance of rising manufacturer costs at a higher level than at volume-brands. However the numbers of SUV and MPV in the segment of LARGE cars which are predominantly non-premium-products are causing a shift of jobs into NON-EU countries as shown in the figure above. The decrease of jobs in EU25 that belong to production of large cars is relatively small even if we forecast a strong growing number of produced cars in the baseline-scenario between 2004 and 2008 and a further minor increase between 2008 and 2012. So between 2002 and 2012 only a total shift of nearly 9.000 jobs from EU25 to NON-EU will take place in the LARGE-segment additional to the baseline-scenario.
Table 6.27: Number of employees in at car-manufacturer LARGE-car-segment (Baseline- vs. 120g high-cost-scenario)
Number of employees EU25 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline-scenario 235.211 293.193 340.282 340.833 318.972 120g high-cost-scenario 235.211 293.193 340.282 332.153 310.292 Source: FORCAR
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6.3.3.4 Movement of jobs from EU25 to NON-EU - SUPPLIER industry Within this part of the FORCAR simulation it is illustrated how shift of production from EU25 to NON-EU – depending on cost differences between both areas – influences the job situation in the supplier-industry. Barriers in shifting plants from one region to another are lower for the supplier industry than for the OEM. So it is easier to build up new plants in new regions. The supplier assembly lines are less complex compared to the assembly lines of OEM. Further, a higher number of employees in the supplier industry are unskilled workers. Therefore the labour cost factor plays a major role in investment decisions. In particular, the cost pressure by OEM is pushing the supplier. That is an effect which is also shown inside the supplier pyramid. The main suppliers at TIER 1 level pass on the cost pressure to downstream suppliers at TIER 2 till TIER 5. As described above a migration to the Eastern European countries is a typical option used for a long time.
Figure 6.11: Procedure of FORCAR-simulation supplier-industry
Source: FORCAR
In that simulation no differentiation between the three segments SMALL, MEDIUM and LARGE is done due to the fact that an assignment of jobs and added values to a determined segment is not possible. For example a product like an ABS-modul produced by BOSCH is used in cars of all segments. The simulation arrives at the conclusion that a total of 39.800 jobs in the supplier industry move from EU15 to EU10 between 2002 and 2012 with the biggest part as a result of rising technology costs in 2008 respectively 2012.
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Table 6.28: Labour cost advantages in the 120g-TNO / high-cost-scenario NON-EU vs. EU 25 per car (in €) / Supplier-industry
2002 Manufacturer costs 12.799 Supplier share 70% 8.960 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.792 Labour costs NON-EU per car 129 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.663 2004 Manufacturer costs 13.308 Supplier share 72,5% 9.649 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.930 Labour costs NON-EU per car 152 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.777 2008 Manufacturer costs 14.140 Supplier share 75% 10.605 Labour costs EU25 per car 2.121 Labour costs NON-EU per car 201 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.920 2012 Manufacturer costs 15.413 Supplier share 80% 12.330 Labour costs EU25 per car 2.466 Labour costs NON-EU per car 308 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 2.158 2020 Manufacturer costs 15.413 Supplier share 80% 12.330 Labour costs EU25 per car 2.466 Labour costs NON-EU per car 436 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 2.030 Source: FORCAR
Besides the migration from EU15 to EU10 a movement of jobs in the supplier industry from EU25 to NON-EU countries has been taken place in the past, too and will resume itself in the future. Due to arising cost pressure suppliers also search for the lowest labour cost countries in that scenario. An effect that is shown inside the supplier pyramid. The main supplier at TIER 1 level passes on the cost pressure to downstream supplier at TIER 2 till TIER 5. Another typical effect for migration of suppliers is the trend to follow the OEM to its production areas. With the emerging new markets in Eastern Europe as Russia and their growing car industry suppliers try to conquer new markets. In amount the FORCAR simulation adds up to a total of another 29.500 jobs in the supplier industry moving from EU25 to NON-EU between 2002 and 2012 caused by
CO2-low-cost-scenario.
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Figure 6.12: Development of jobs in EU25 – 120g-TNO-high-cost-scenario / Supplier-industry
Supplier-Industry: Baseline-Scenario vs.120g-high-cost-scenario
850.000
825.000
800.000
775.000 in EU25 in 750.000
725.000
700.000
Total numberof employees Supplier-industry 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline 120g high-cost-scenario
Source: FORCAR
Table 6.29: Number of employees in the Supplier-industry (Baseline- vs. 120g low- cost-scenario)
Number of employees EU25 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline-scenario 796.424 820.237 814.486 796.178 773.793 120g high-cost-scenario 796.424 820.237 814.486 752.907 730.522 Source: FORCAR
6.3.4 Scenario: 130g-TNO (2006d) / 130g-high-cost-scenario The 130g-TNO (2006d) scenario describes the effects that are caused by achieving the aim of CO2 emissions reduction. The targets in that scenario are set for reaching 140g
CO2/km in 2008 and the final target of 130g CO2/km in 2012. Therefore two stages of technology enhancements have to be taken. In order to reach the target of 140g or 130g respectively additional technology has to be innovated and installed in cars. That technology is intrinsically tied to a boost of cost for all manufactures. The TNO input delivers the structure of extra costs to the automotive manufacturer (OEM) in each of the three segments (small, medium and large) as well as for the mode of driving (diesel or petrol).
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The increase of manufacturer costs result in rising retail prices in each segment. The rise of manufacturing costs is caused by impacts to the production process at the OEM and the manufacturing process of preliminary products at the automotive supplier industry.
6.3.4.1 Input-parameters The B&D simulation uses the following main input parameters:
• Production capacities, actual production values and a FORCAR run-up production forecast up to 2020. These parameters are based on the life time cycle of existing products and future product plans of the OEM. All values and forecast simulations are separated by brands, models, segments and regions. These input parameters are defined for each of the following regions as a whole: EU15, EU10, EU25 and NON-EU Eastern European countries including EU candidate countries (marked as NON-EU for simplification in the simulation). • Number of employees of the automotive industry in all associated countries. The data are split by country, OEM and supplier industry. They are aggregated to EU15, EU10, EU25 and NON-EU for the before mentioned reasons. • Labour costs for each sector of automotive industry as OEM and supplier industry. They are also aggregated to average values for the different contemplated regions. The FORCAR-tool delivers a forecast of labour costs for the countries and regions. The applied method refers to time series analysis. All applied data of time series are provided by statistics of VDA and EUROSTAT. • Retail prices and manufacturer costs as provided by TNO.
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6.3.4.2 Procedure of FORCAR-simulation The procedure is summarized by the following figure:
Figure 6.13: Procedure of FORCAR-simulation OEM
Source: FORCAR
Basic production and employment assumption Starting from the output-figures by brand, model and plant all data are first aggregated to the segments SMALL, MEDIUM and LARGE. Additionally, as above mentioned, the aggregation finally refers to the main regions EU25 and Non-EU. Numbers of employees per region are allocated by share of production in SMALL- and MEDIUM- LARGE-segment.
Regional Analysis In one first step, we analyse the re-allocation of car production from EU15 to EU 10 countries. In the second step, we analyse the re-allocation of car production from EU25 to NON-EU. In this environment, we assume that a second shift after EU15 to EU 10 and then to NON-EU will not take place. The reason is that once a plant has been shifted from EU15 to EU 10 it is implausible that it is once more shifted within a period of ten years. Investment cost, aid payments and amortisation on one hand and lower cost differences between EU10 and NON-EU thwart that procedure. Note: Only the final results for the EU25 region are displayed. The intermediate step from EU15 to EU10 is only used for plausibility reasons in the simulation but not displayed as an effect.
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All calculations have been made for each segment SMALL, MEDIUM and LARGE. Calculation of manufacturer costs is on basis of IEEP input. For calculating employment-effects, we did not differ between diesel and petrol cars.
Table 6.30: Retail prices by segment in the 130g-TNO scenario
2002 2008 2012
PCGS 10.888,02 12.088,77 12.866,89 PCGM 23.435,73 24.779,88 25.773,26 PCGL 41.342,40 43.176,82 30.372,69 PCDS 12.065,76 12.480,42 13.206,73 PCDM 19.151,64 19.756,10 20.796,42 PCDL 28.136,97 29.038,39 30.372,69 SMALL 11.143,91 12.225,67 13.009,22 MEDIUM 21.321,19 21.870,28 22.667,79 LARGE 25.427,11 35.172,76 36.157,96 Source: TNO
Retail price / 1,44 = manufacturer costs Presumption: Between the two main target steps 2008 and 2012 no modification of technology that forces additional manufacturer costs.
Labour cost per region In car industry the cost split of the product is as follows: 20% Labour cost, 80% other cost (Materials, Administration, energy etc.). That is one result of former B&D-forecast studies. FORCAR-simulation applies this result. Furthermore FORCAR is forecasting the total labour costs in the considered areas by using time series of cost development and macro economic input-factors. The re-allocation process in the European car industry can be best illustrated by using data of the years 2002 and 2004. Especially the year 2004 - as starting point of the EU-enlargement – shows important changes in allocation pattern of the carmakers and supplier. So that data cluster deliver cost advantages by region and segment. FORCAR calculates a linear relationship between labour cost and employment within car industry. The coefficients of the calculated line are based on a data-series starting from 2000. The results from that 120g-TNO / high-cost-scenario simulation are illustrated subsequent. At first the effects to OEM are illustrated over all three simulated segments followed by the effects on supplier industry over all scenarios.
Note: Effects on 140g-target in 2008/2009
In the FORCAR-simulation effects on the sub-ordinate target of 140g CO2-emmission in 2008/2009 are masked out. Although there could be effects on cost advantage and job
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shifting in the CO2 based scenarios all computed value will be unconsidered. Shift of jobs and plant in that space of time only have influence on the baseline-scenario. On the one hand the 140g target is based on a voluntary self-commitment of the car- manufacturer that is common for a long-time. On the other hand all product and production plan for the period until 2008/2009 are adopted. So even if there would be regimentation within the next year by the EU-commission implementation into products and production could not be made within that period. Therefore we introduce impact not until 2008/2009. Thus all values up to 2008/2009 correspond to the baseline-scenario.
6.3.4.3 Effects on OEM The results from that 130g-TNO scenario simulation are illustrated subsequent. At first the effects to OEM are illustrated over all three scenarios followed by the effects on supplier industry over all scenarios.
Table 6.31: Labour cost advantages in the 130g-TNO / high-cost-scenario NON-EU vs. EU 25 per car (in €)
SMALL MEDIUM LARGE
2002 Manufacturer costs 7.739 14.806 17.658 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.548 2.961 3.532 Labour costs NON-EU per car 111 213 254 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.436 2.748 3.277 2004 Manufacturer costs 7.989 15.050 19.914 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.598 3.010 3.983 Labour costs NON-EU per car 126 238 315 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.472 2.772 3.668 2008 Manufacturer costs 8.490 15.188 24.426 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.698 3.038 4.885 Labour costs NON-EU per car 177 316 508 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.521 2.722 4.377 2012 Manufacturer costs 9.034 15.742 25.110 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.807 3.148 5.022 Labour costs NON-EU per car 248 431 688 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.559 2.717 4.334
2020 Manufacturer costs 9.034 15.742 25.110 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.807 3.148 5.022 Labour costs NON-EU per car 407 708 1.130 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.400 2.440 3.892 Source: FORCAR
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Movement of jobs from EU25 to NON-EU / SMALL-segment Within this part of the FORCAR simulation it is illustrated how shift of production from EU25 to NON-EU – depending on cost differences between both areas – influences the job situation in SMALL-car production.
Figure 6.14: Development of jobs EU25 – scenario 130g-TNO-high-cost-scenario / SMALL-segment
SMALL-Segment: Baseline-Scenario vs.130g-high-cost-scenario
700.000
650.000
600.000
production EU25 in 550.000
500.000
Total number of employees in SMALL-car SMALL-car in employees of number Total 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline 130g high-cost-scenario
Source: FORCAR
The above illustration visualises a continuous increase of employment at OEM inside the EU countries up to 2008 caused by rising production. A lighter increase (in comparison with the 120g-high-cost-scenario) of retail prices and manufacturer costs situation from 2008/2009 on will lead to an increase of job migration towards the NON- EU countries. But it is understated in these 130g-scenario. So a total cost-advantage- increase from1.521 Euro per car in 2008 up to 1.559 in 2012 is given. In this period main share of job decrease in EU25 countries will occur. Nearly 10.700 jobs additionally to the baseline scenario will emerge. The 120g-high-cost-scenario delivered an increase of nearly 19.000 jobs in the same period.
Table 6.32: Number of employees in at car-manufacturer SMALL-car-segment (Baseline- vs. 130g high-cost-scenario)
Number of employees EU25 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline-scenario 651.754 657.914 677.033 636.004 632.965 130g high-cost-scenario 651.754 657.914 677.033 625.356 622.316 Source: FORCAR
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Movement of jobs from EU25 to NON-EU / MEDIUM-segment Within this part of the FORCAR simulation it is illustrated how shift of production from EU25 to NON-EU – depending on cost differences between both areas – influences the job situation in SMALL-car production. Results of the 130g-TNO-high-cost-scenario shows no shift of jobs from the EU25 countries to the NON-EU countries in the MEDIUM-car-segment. Advantages of costs regarding to IEEP input-parameter in relation to boost of technology and manufacturer costs are too low. Therefore a shift of production to other countries is not reasonable, the exchange-barrier too high.
Figure 6.15: Development of jobs EU25 – scenario 130g-TNO-high-cost-scenario / MEDIUM-segment
MEDIUM-Segment: Baseline-Scenario vs.130g-high-cost-scenario
1.000.000
950.000
900.000 EU25
850.000
800.000
Totalnumber of employeesin MEDIUM-car production in 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline 130g high-cost-scenario
Source: FORCAR
Table 6.33: Number of employees in at car-manufacturer MEDIUM-car-segment Baseline- vs. 130g high-cost-scenario
Number of employees EU25 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline-scenario 994.545 952.493 948.900 919.141 871.245 130g high-cost-scenario 994.545 952.493 948.900 919.141 871.245 Source: FORCAR
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Movement of jobs from EU25 to NON-EU / LARGE-segment As described before in the 120g-low-and-high-cost-scenario the LARGE-car-segment contains the highest level of premium-brands and products of all the three segments. Therefore a shift of production from EU25 outside the EU to NON-EU countries is a not considered alternative for premium-carmakers because of the image-factor. Furthermore premium-brand-customers expect to have the highest level of technology inside their car. So it is an important competitive factor for premium-brands to be the leader in technology in the car market.
Figure 6.16: Development of jobs EU25 – scenario 130g-TNO-high-cost-scenario / LARGE-segment
LARGE-Segment: Baseline-Scenario vs.130-high-cost-scenario a 350.000
325.000
300.000
275.000
250.000 production EU25 in 225.000
200.000
Total number of employees in LARGE-c in employees of number Total 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline 130g high-cost-scenario
Source: FORCAR
Superior profit margins at premium-brands allow balance of rising manufacturer costs at a higher level than at volume-brands. However the numbers of SUV and MPV in the segment of LARGE cars which are predominantly non-premium-products are causing a shift of jobs into NON-EU countries as shown in the figure above. The decrease of jobs in EU25 that belong to production of large cars is relatively small even if we forecast a strong growing number of produced cars in the baseline-scenario between 2004 and 2008 and a further minor increase between 2008 and 2012. So between 2002 and 2012 only a total shift of around 7.500 jobs from EU25 to NON-EU will take place in the LARGE-segment additional to the baseline-scenario.
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Table 6.34: Number of employees in at car-manufacturer MEDIUM-car-segment (Baseline- vs. 130g high-cost-scenario)
Number of employees EU25 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline-scenario 235.211 293.193 340.282 340.833 318.972 130g high-cost-scenario 235.211 293.193 340.282 333.278 311.417 Source: FORCAR
6.3.4.4 Movement of jobs from EU15 to NON-EU – SUPPLIER industry Within this part of the FORCAR simulation it is illustrated how shift of production from EU25 to NON-EU – depending on cost differences between both areas – influences the job situation in the supplier-industry. Barriers in shifting plants from one region to another are lower for the supplier industry than for the OEM. So it is easier to build up new plants in new regions. The supplier assembly lines are less complex compared to the assembly lines of OEM. Further, a higher number of employees in the supplier industry are unskilled workers. Therefore the labour cost factor plays a major role in investment decisions. In particular, the cost pressure by OEM is pushing the supplier. That is an effect which is also shown inside the supplier pyramid. The main suppliers at TIER 1 level pass on the cost pressure to downstream suppliers at TIER 2 till TIER 5. As described above a migration to the Eastern European countries is a typical option used for a long time.
Figure 6.17: Procedure of FORCAR-simulation supplier-industry
Source: FORCAR
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In that simulation no differentiation between the three segments SMALL, MEDIUM and LARGE is done due to the fact that an assignment of jobs and added values to a determined segment is not possible. For example a product like an ABS-modul produced by BOSCH is used in cars of all segments.
Table 6.35: Labour cost advantages in the 130g-TNO / high-cost-scenario NON-EU vs. EU 25 per car (in €) / Supplier-industry
2002 Manufacturer costs 12.799 Supplier share 70% 8.960 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.792 Labour costs NON-EU per car 129 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.663 2004 Manufacturer costs 13.308 Supplier share 72,5% 9.649 Labour costs EU25 per car 1.930 Labour costs NON-EU per car 152 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.777 2008 Manufacturer costs 14.140 Supplier share 75% 10.605 Labour costs EU25 per car 2.121 Labour costs NON-EU per car 201 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.920 2012 Manufacturer costs 14.708 Supplier share 80% 11.766 Labour costs EU25 per car 2.353 Labour costs NON-EU per car 294 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 2.059 2020 Manufacturer costs 14.708 Supplier share 80% 11.766 Labour costs EU25 per car 2.353 Labour costs NON-EU per car 417 Cost advantage NON-EU per car 1.937 Source: FORCAR
Besides the migration from EU15 to EU10 a movement of jobs in the supplier industry from EU25 to NON-EU countries has been taken place in the past, too and will resume itself in the future. Due to arising cost pressure suppliers also search for the lowest labour cost countries in that scenario. An effect that is shown inside the supplier pyramid. The main supplier at TIER 1 level passes on the cost pressure to downstream supplier at TIER 2 till TIER 5. Another typical effect for migration of suppliers is the trend to follow the OEM to its production areas. With the emerging new markets in
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Eastern Europe as Russia and their growing car industry suppliers try to conquer new markets. In amount the FORCAR simulation adds up to a total of another 34.600 jobs in the supplier industry moving from EU25 to NON-EU between 2002 and 2012 caused by
CO2-low-cost-scenario.
Figure 6.18: Development of jobs in EU25 – 130g-TNO-high-cost-scenario / Supplier-industry
Supplier-Industry: Baseline-Scenario vs.130g-high-scenario
850.000
825.000
800.000
775.000
750.000 Industry in EU25 Industry
725.000
Total number of employees Supplier- employees number of Total 700.000 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline 130g high-cost-scenario
Source: FORCAR
Table 6.36: Number of employees in the Supplier-industry (Baseline- vs. 130g high- cost-scenario)
Number of employees EU25 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
Baseline-scenario 796.424 820.237 814.486 796.178 773.793 130g low-cost-scenario 796.424 820.237 814.486 761.536 739.151 Source: FORCAR
6.3.5 Summary of the three scenarios 120g-IEEP, 120g-TNO, 130g TNO The below shown figures compare the three scenarios and their results regarding development of employment with the base-line-scenario. At first the effects on the job situation at car-manufacturer within the EU25 in contrast to the base-line is illustrated in the figure below. Additionally the effects on the supplier-industry are illustrated.
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6.3.5.1 Effects on employment at car-manufacturer in EU25 – summary
Figure 6.19: Development of employment at car-manufacturer in EU25 – CO2 (Scenarios vs. Base-Line)
Development of employees at car-maker in EU25 Sceanarios vs. Base-Line
2.000.000
1.950.000
1.900.000 EU25 1.850.000
1.800.000
1.750.000 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020 Total number of employees atcar-manufacture in
BASE TOTAL 120g-low -cost-scenario TOTAL 120g-high-cost-scenario TOTAL 130g-high-cost-scenario TOTAL
Source: FORCAR
As described in the base-line-scenario there will be a strong decrease of employees from
2004 up to 2020 also without further CO2 regulation. Rising technology and manufacturer costs regarding to additional emission directives will boost that process as shown in the curves above. The strongest effects are shown in the 120g-high-cost- scenario. A 120g target in 2012 would mean a loss of jobs within the EU25 of nearly 10.500 regarding the IEEP low-cost-input (yellow curve) or around 39.000 jobs based on the TNO-high-cost-input (red curve). A target of 130g in 2012 based on the TNO- high-costs would lead to a loss of 18.000 jobs within the EU25 a additional shift of production outside the EU25 to NON-EU-member states in Eastern/South-Eastern Europe. In relation to the total number of employees at car-manufacturers the effects caused by CO2 scenarios are marginal. On percentage base we talk about total losses from a minimum of 0,6% to a maximum of 2,1% . Recapitulating we can say that for the car-makers the job shifts or losses due to higher technologies for reaching the 120g/130g target are nearly inconsiderable. Most of the jobs that are shifted to countries outside the EU25 are rather caused by decisions independently of CO2-targets. Emerging markets in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe like Russia or Turkey play a determining role as well as an enduring general cost pressure on car-manufacturers.
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Table 6.37: Number of employees at car-manufacturer in EU25 (Baseline- vs. CO2- scenarios)
120g-low-cost-scenario 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020 SMALL 651.754 657.914 677.033 633.262 630.223 MEDIUM 994.545 952.493 948.900 919.141 871.245 LARGE 235.211 293.193 340.282 333.121 311.261 SCENARIO TOTAL 1.881.510 1.903.600 1.966.216 1.885.525 1.812.729 Baseline-scenario 1.881.510 1.903.600 1.966.216 1.895.978 1.823.182 Difference to Base-line - - - - 10.454 - 10.454
120g-high-cost-scenario SMALL 651.754 657.914 677.033 617.185 614.145 MEDIUM 994.545 952.493 948.900 907.609 859.713 LARGE 235.211 293.193 340.282 332.153 310.292 SCENARIO TOTAL 1.881.510 1.903.600 1.966.216 1.856.947 1.784.151 Baseline-scenario 1.881.510 1.903.600 1.966.216 1.895.978 1.823.182 Difference to Base-line - - - - 39.032 - 39.032
130g-high-cost-scenario SMALL 651.754 657.914 677.033 625.356 622.316 MEDIUM 994.545 952.493 948.900 919.141 871.245 LARGE 235.211 293.193 340.282 333.278 311.417 SCENARIO TOTAL 1.881.510 1.903.600 1.966.216 1.877.775 1.804.979 Baseline-scenario 1.881.510 1.903.600 1.966.216 1.895.978 1.823.182 Difference to Base-line - - - - 18.204 - 18.204 Source: FORCAR
6.3.5.2 Effects on employment at supplier-industry in EU25 – summary That enduring and increasing cost pressure has been passed on from the manufacturer to the supplier-industry during the past and is still going on. Therefore the effects on the supplier-industry caused by rising technology costs will be substantially stronger.
The curves in the figure above show a stronger effect due to CO2-emmission targets than the curves of the car-manufacturer industry. At the supplier-industry as well the strongest effects are shown in the 120g-high-cost-scenario. A 120g target in 2012 would mean a loss of jobs within the EU25 of nearly 29.500 regarding the IEEP low-cost-input (yellow curve) or around 43.000 jobs based on the TNO-high-cost-input (red curve). A target of 130g in 2012 based on the TNO-high-costs would lead to a loss of around 34.500 jobs within the EU25 an additional shift of production outside the EU25 to NON-EU-member states in Eastern/South-Eastern Europe. In relation to the total number of employees at supplier the effects caused by CO2 scenarios are stronger as at the ca-makers. On percentage base we here talk about total losses from a minimum of 3,7% to a maximum of 5,4% . Recapitulating we can say that suppliers will be much
- 150 - more affected by higher technologies for reaching the 120g /130g target than the car- manufacturer itself. That is resulting on the share of production value on the one hand and on the balance of power within the automotive industry on the other hand. Besides that it is easier for suppliers to shift production from one country to another.
Figure 6.20: Development of employment at supplier-industry in EU25 – CO2 Scenarios vs. Base-Line
Development of employees at car-maker in EU25 Sceanarios vs. Base-Line 850.000
825.000
800.000
775.000 EU25
750.000
725.000
700.000 Total number of employees at car-manufacture i car-manufacture at employees of number Total 2002 2004 2008/2009 2012 2020
BASE TOTAL 120g-low-cost-scenario TOTAL 120g-high-cost-scenario TOTAL 130g-high-cost-scenario TOTAL
Source: FORCAR
Table 6.38: Number of employees at supplier-industry in EU25 (Baseline- vs. CO2- scenarios)
Baseline-scenario 796.424 820.237 814.486 796.178 773.793
120g low-cost-scenario 796.424 820.237 814.486 766.640 744.255 Differece to Baseline-scenario 29.538 29.538 120g high-cost-scenario 796.424 820.237 814.486 752.907 730.522 Differece to Baseline-scenario 43.271 43.271 130g low-cost-scenario 796.424 820.237 814.486 761.536 739.151 Differece to Baseline-scenario 34.641 34.641 Source: FORCAR
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6.3.6 Differentiation volume-manufacturer vs. premium-manufacturer At premium-manufacturer labour cost are not the key issue for production location. As a fact of manner, premium segments are faced with lower cost-pressure, however, stronger pressure on innovations. Generally we observe higher profit margins in premium markets. For a premium-manufacturer reputation of the production location is an important argument. High-quality products and cheap wage country signal conflicts for the customer. Reputation of premium-cars stems partly from manufacturing sites in EU15 countries. This reputation urges a high demand for these products in oversee-markets. For example, Jaguar needs a British production base to be creditable to the customer. In the same way, Mercedes and BMW need German bases to be accepted as technology leader or Ferrari must have a manufacturing site in Italy. For these reasons, export rates of premium cars are high. BMW as a premium-manufacturer is a typical example as shown in Table 6.41.
Table 6.39: Export rate (outside the EU) of a premium-manufacturer
2002 2008 2012
BMW total production EU 911.091 1.260.221 1.336.722 BMW sales EU 590.820 627.167 652.633 BMW export-rate (outside EU) 320.271 633.054 684.089 Source: Production numbers B&D-Forecast, demand numbers TNO/Polk
Premium cars are more innovative as regards to comfort, safety and design as volume cars. In principle, innovation needs a skilled workforce. Therefore, we also expect a stronger bias of premium cars to EU15 locations.
6.3.6.1 Emission-Regulation Effects on car-dealer
The goal of achieving the CO2 limits leads to rising production costs and retail prices in consequence, especially in case of petroleum driven cars. The table below shows the estimated growth of retail prices from 2002 to 2008. According to the data of TNO, customers are expected to react with an increasing demand on cheaper diesel-driven cars. Expensive, powerful petroleum engines will continuously decrease in demand.
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Table 6.40: Absolute retail prices excl. tax (in €)– all three scenarios
Absolute retail price excl. 19% tax Small cars Medium cars Large cars Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel
120g-low costs 2002 10.888 12.066 23.436 19.152 41.342 28.137 2008 11.355 12.351 23.986 19.479 42.182 28.987 2012 11.852 12.651 25.021 20.228 44.370 30.608
120g-high costs 2002 10.888 12.066 23.436 19.152 41.342 28.137 2008 12.089 12.480 24.780 19.756 43.177 29.038 2012 13.591 14.086 26.735 21.956 45.536 31.809 130g-high costs 2002 10.888 12.066 23.436 19.152 41.342 28.137 2008 12.089 12.480 24.780 19.756 43.177 29.038 2012 12.867 13.207 25.773 20.796 44.398 30.373 Source: IEEP/TNO
Table 6.43 shows the expected sales for 2008 and 2012. The mix of car segments
(small, medium, large) does not vary in dependency on the CO2 scenarios. The figures (table 6.43) show, that the higher retail prices will not lead to a movement between the categories of small-, midsize and large cars. Instead there will be a movement to diesel cars within the size categories.
Table 6.41: Petrol- / Diesel-share by segments
Small Midsize Large Diesel Diesel Diesel Sales growth Share Sales growth Share Sales growth Share
2002 4.412 - 22% 6.978 - 49% 1.713 - 54% 2008 4.684 6% 35% 7.407 6% 58% 1.819 6% 57% 2012 4.874 4% 42% 7.708 4% 62% 1.892 4% 59% Source: FORCAR
As impact on the dealership we consider three different scenarios:
• Best Case: The percentage of dealer-margin remains stable despite the rising prices. The total of dealer margin and therefore the dealer profit grows as car prices increase. • Rising prices can’t be handed over to the customers in full amount. The percentage of dealer margin declines although the total of margin remains stable. • Customers react very sensitive on rising car prices. Dealers are forced to give strong rebates. The margin on each sold car declines.
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Excursion: Structure of dealerships Dealership in the EU can be divided into four main groups:
• International Mega-Dealer with more than 1 billion Euro sales per year • Large Trade Groups with sales between 250 million and 1 billion Euro sales per year • Medium Trade Groups with sales between 10 and 250 million Euro per year • Small- and middle-sized car dealer with sales up to 10 million Euro per year Following the study “Entwicklungen und Erfolgsfaktoren im Automobilvertrieb” issued by KPMG and CAR in 2005, structure of dealership shows the following mixture in 2005:
• Megadealer: 2% • Large Trade Groups: 18% • Medium Trade Groups: 35% • Small- and middle-sized car dealer: 45% In sales distribution all experts expect a continuous concentration process. In the above mentioned study especially megadealer and large trade groups increase its market share. Megadealer and large trade groups get better margins on purchase due to their large sales volume and their better ability to fulfil the OEM CI-standards.
For the following dealership scenarios no other than the effects caused by CO2 reduction will be considered. All other parameters remain constant.
6.3.6.2 Scenarios – Effect on dealer
Best case scenario – percentage of dealer margin constant The best case scenario assumes that the percentage of dealer-margin remains stable despite the rising car prices. Thus, the total of dealer margin and therefore the dealer profit grows due to the increasing retail prices as well as increasing sales figures. This is summarized in Table 6.44. Also, Table 6.44 illustrates that no changes would arise between the four dealer categories within this scenario.
Table 6.42: Effects on dealership – best case scenario
Percentage of margin Total of margin Share of category
Megadealer O + O Large Trade Groups O + O Medium Trade Groups O + O Small and Middle sized Car Dealers O + O
[O] stays equal [+] growth [-] reduction [--] strong reduction Source: FORCAR
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Details of calculation for Table 6.44 are shown in tables 6.54 – 6.47. As basis for this calculation an average margin of 7% for new car sales is considered. This corresponds to different studies, e.g. above mentioned KMPG-CAR study.
Table 6.43: 120g-IEEP: Effects on sales margin and volume – best case
Sales Margin 120g-IEEP, stable percentage of dealer margin 2002 2008 2012 Sales Sales Sales Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Category Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Small Petro 10.888 3.453,5 37.601,3 2.632,1 11.355 3.046,4 34.591,6 2.421,4 11.852 2.832,5 33.570,3 2.349,9 Small Diese 12.066 958,6 11.566,5 809,7 12.351 1.637,1 20.219,9 1.415,4 12.651 2.041,2 25.823,0 1.807,6 Midsize Pe 23.436 3.533,6 82.813,3 5.796,9 23.986 3.117,1 74.765,9 5.233,6 25.021 2.898,2 72.515,5 5.076,1 Midsize Die 19.152 3.444,0 65.959,1 4.617,1 19.479 4.289,8 83.560,3 5.849,2 20.228 4.809,5 97.284,4 6.809,9 Large Petro 41.342 781,9 32.325,5 2.262,8 42.182 789,1 33.285,0 2.330,0 44.370 780,6 34.637,3 2.424,6 Large Dies 28.137 931,4 26.205,5 1.834,4 28.987 1.029,6 29.844,3 2.089,1 30.608 1.111,9 34.031,6 2.382,2 Total: - 13.103,0 256.471,1 17.953,0 - 13.909,1 276.267,1 19.338,7 - 14.473,9 297.862,2 20.850,4 Change: - - - 6,2% 7,7% - 4,1% 7,8% Source: FORCAR
According to the scenarios 120g-IEEP total amount of margins in the dealernet rises from 2008 to 2012 by 7,8%. Within each car segment and each period, amount of margins is rising. As total dealernet increases margins, we do not expect a further process of concentration. Thus, the share of each dealer category is expected to remain constant.
Table 6.44: 120g-TNO: Effects on sales margin and volume – best case Sales Margin 120g-TNO, stable percentage of dealer margin 2002 2008 2012 Sales Sales Sales Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Category Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Small Petrol 10.888 3.453,5 37.601,3 2.632,1 12.089 3.046,4 36.826,9 2.577,9 13.591 2.832,5 38.496,7 2.694,8 Small Diesel 12.066 958,6 11.566,5 809,7 12.480 1.637,1 20.432,1 1.430,2 14.086 2.041,2 28.753,2 2.012,7 Midsize Petrol 23.436 3.533,6 82.813,3 5.796,9 24.780 3.117,1 77.241,4 5.406,9 26.735 2.898,2 77.483,2 5.423,8 Midsize Diesel 19.152 3.444,0 65.959,1 4.617,1 19.756 4.289,8 84.750,6 5.932,5 21.956 4.809,5 105.595,2 7.391,7 Large Petrol 41.342 781,9 32.325,5 2.262,8 43.177 789,1 34.069,7 2.384,9 45.536 780,6 35.546,9 2.488,3 Large Diesel 28.137 931,4 26.205,5 1.834,4 29.038 1.029,6 29.897,2 2.092,8 31.809 1.111,9 35.366,7 2.475,7 Total: - 13.103,0 256.471,1 17.953,0 - 13.909,1 283.217,9 19.825,3 - 14.473,9 321.241,9 22.486,9 Change: - - - 6,2% 10,4% - 4,1% 13,4% Source: FORCAR
The 120g TNO scenario expects higher car prices then the IEEP scenario. Assuming the “Best Case” in combination with the rising sales volumes this would lead to higher total of margins in comparison to 120g IEEP. Table 6.46 shows an increase of 10,4% from 2002 to 2008 and 13,4% from 2008 to 2012.
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Table 6.45: 130g-TNO: Effects on sales margin and volume – best case
Sales Margin 130g-TNO, stable percentage of dealer margin 2002 2008 2012 Sales Sales Sales Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Category Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Small Petrol 10.888 3.453,5 37.601,3 2.632,1 12.089 3.046,4 36.826,9 2.577,9 12.867 2.832,5 36.444,9 2.551,1 Small Diesel 12.066 958,6 11.566,5 809,7 12.480 1.637,1 20.432,1 1.430,2 13.207 2.041,2 26.957,9 1.887,1 Midsize Petrol 23.436 3.533,6 82.813,3 5.796,9 24.780 3.117,1 77.241,4 5.406,9 25.773 2.898,2 74.696,5 5.228,8 Midsize Diesel 19.152 3.444,0 65.959,1 4.617,1 19.756 4.289,8 84.750,6 5.932,5 20.796 4.809,5 100.020,0 7.001,4 Large Petrol 41.342 781,9 32.325,5 2.262,8 43.177 789,1 34.069,7 2.384,9 44.398 780,6 34.658,7 2.426,1 Large Diesel 28.137 931,4 26.205,5 1.834,4 29.038 1.029,6 29.897,2 2.092,8 30.373 1.111,9 33.770,0 2.363,9 Total: - 13.103,0 256.471,1 17.953,0 - 13.909,1 283.217,9 19.825,3 - 14.473,9 306.548,0 21.458,4 Change: - - - 6,2% 10,4% - 4,1% 8,2% Source: FORCAR
Compared to 120g TNO 130g TNO leads to a lower increase of prices in 2012. Thus the margin growth for dealers between 2008 and 2012 would be smaller in consequence.
Impact on dealership – medium case Rising prices can’t be handed over to the customers in full amount. The percentage of dealer margin declines although the total of margin remains stable. Small dealers lose because they can not cover their operating cost any longer due to the decreasing margins. Mega Dealer can compensate lower margins by selling higher volume. That development benefits the process of concentration. Small- and medium- sized dealers will be undertaken by lager groups (cp table 6.48).
Table 6.46: Effects on dealership – medium case scenario
Percentage of margin Total of margin Share of category
Megadealer – O + Large Trade Groups – O + Medium Trade Groups – O O Small and Middle sized Car Dealers – – –
[O] stays equal [+] growth [-] reduction [--] strong reduction Source: FORCAR
The tables below show the detailed effects on margin and sales volume in any of the three CO2 reduction scenarios.
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Table 6.47: 120g IEEP: Effects on sales margin and volume by scenario – medium case
Sales Margin 120g-IEEP, falling percentage of dealer margin, stable total of margin 2002 2008 2012 Sales Sales 6,5% Sales Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Retail Units Sales Margin Retail Units Sales 6% Margin Category Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Small Petro 10.888 3.453,5 37.601,3 2.632,1 11.355 3.046,4 34.591,6 2.248,5 11.852 2.832,5 33.570,3 2.024,3 Small Diese 12.066 958,6 11.566,5 809,7 12.351 1.637,1 20.219,9 1.314,3 12.651 2.041,2 25.823,0 1.557,1 Midsize Pe 23.436 3.533,6 82.813,3 5.796,9 23.986 3.117,1 74.765,9 4.859,8 25.021 2.898,2 72.515,5 4.372,7 Midsize Die 19.152 3.444,0 65.959,1 4.617,1 19.479 4.289,8 83.560,3 5.431,4 20.228 4.809,5 97.284,4 5.866,3 Large Petro 41.342 781,9 32.325,5 2.262,8 42.182 789,1 33.285,0 2.163,5 44.370 780,6 34.637,3 2.088,6 Large Dies 28.137 931,4 26.205,5 1.834,4 28.987 1.029,6 29.844,3 1.939,9 30.608 1.111,9 34.031,6 2.052,1 Total: - 13.103,0 256.471,1 17.953,0 - 13.909,1 276.267,1 17.957,4 - 14.473,9 297.862,2 17.961,1 Change: - - - 6,2% 0,0% - 4,1% 0,0% Source: FORCAR
Table 6.50 shows a stable amount of total margin at approx 18 Billion Euro for all years from 2002 to 2012. Within this scenario dealer margin would decline to 6,5% in 2008 and 6% in 2012.
Table 6.48: 120g TNO: Effects on sales margin and volume by scenario – medium case Sales Margin 120g-TNO, falling percentage of dealer margin, stable total of margin 2002 2008 2012 Sales Sales 6,3% Sales Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Retail Units Sales Margin Retail Units Sales 5,6% Margin Category Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Small Petrol 10.888 3.453,5 37.601,3 2.632,1 12.089 3.046,4 36.826,9 2.334,8 13.591 2.832,5 38.496,7 2.152,0 Small Diesel 12.066 958,6 11.566,5 809,7 12.480 1.637,1 20.432,1 1.295,4 14.086 2.041,2 28.753,2 1.607,3 Midsize Petrol 23.436 3.533,6 82.813,3 5.796,9 24.780 3.117,1 77.241,4 4.897,1 26.735 2.898,2 77.483,2 4.331,3 Midsize Diesel 19.152 3.444,0 65.959,1 4.617,1 19.756 4.289,8 84.750,6 5.373,2 21.956 4.809,5 105.595,2 5.902,8 Large Petrol 41.342 781,9 32.325,5 2.262,8 43.177 789,1 34.069,7 2.160,0 45.536 780,6 35.546,9 1.987,1 Large Diesel 28.137 931,4 26.205,5 1.834,4 29.038 1.029,6 29.897,2 1.895,5 31.809 1.111,9 35.366,7 1.977,0 Total: - 13.103,0 256.471,1 17.953,0 - 13.909,1 283.217,9 17.956,0 - 14.473,9 321.241,9 17.957,4 Change: - - - 6,2% 0,0% - 4,1% 0,0% Source: FORCAR
Due to the higher estimated car prices within the 120g TNO scenario decline of margin in percent would be less then in case of 120g IEEP. Margins In 2012 dealers would have to come along with only 5,6% of margin on each sold car in average.
Table 6.49: 130g TNO: Effects on sales margin and volume by scenario – medium case
Sales Margin 130g-TNO, falling percentage of dealer margin, stable total of margin 2002 2008 2012 Sales Sales Sales Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Retail Units Sales 6,3% Margin Retail Units Sales 5,9% Margin Category Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Small Petrol 10.888 3.453,5 37.601,3 2.632,1 12.089 3.046,4 36.826,9 2.335,2 12.867 2.832,5 36.444,9 2.135,7 Small Diesel 12.066 958,6 11.566,5 809,7 12.480 1.637,1 20.432,1 1.295,6 13.207 2.041,2 26.957,9 1.579,7 Midsize Petrol 23.436 3.533,6 82.813,3 5.796,9 24.780 3.117,1 77.241,4 4.897,9 25.773 2.898,2 74.696,5 4.377,2 Midsize Diesel 19.152 3.444,0 65.959,1 4.617,1 19.756 4.289,8 84.750,6 5.374,0 20.796 4.809,5 100.020,0 5.861,2 Large Petrol 41.342 781,9 32.325,5 2.262,8 43.177 789,1 34.069,7 2.160,4 44.398 780,6 34.658,7 2.031,0 Large Diesel 28.137 931,4 26.205,5 1.834,4 29.038 1.029,6 29.897,2 1.895,8 30.373 1.111,9 33.770,0 1.978,9 Total: - 13.103,0 256.471,1 17.953,0 - 13.909,1 283.217,9 17.958,8 - 14.473,9 306.548,0 17.963,7 Change: - - - 6,2% 0,0% - 4,1% 0,0% Source: FORCAR
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Scenario 130g TNO provides same prices as the previous scenario in 2008 and significant lower prices in 2012. Provided, that the total amount of margin would remain stable, percentage of dealer’s margin would only decline on 5,9%.
Impact on dealership – worst case Customers react very sensitive on rising car prices. Dealers are forced to give strong rebates. The margin on each sold car declines. The process of dealership-concentration gets accelerated.
Table 6.50: Effects on dealership – worst case scenario
Percentage of margin Total of margin Share of category
Megadealer – – – + Large Trade Groups – – – + Medium Trade Groups – – – O Small and Middle sized Car Dealers – – – – – –
[O] stays equal [+] growth [-] reduction [--] strong reduction Source: FORCAR
Small dealers are decimated because they can not cover their operating cost any longer due to the strong decreasing margins. Mega Dealer can compensate lower margins by selling higher volume. That development would push the process of concentration very strong. Small- and medium- sized dealers will be undertaken by lager groups in great quantities. The tables below show the detailed effects on margin and sales volume in any of the three CO2 reduction scenarios.
Table 6.51: 120g IEEP: Effects on sales margin and volume by scenario – worst case
Sales Margin 120g-IEEP, reduced total of margin 2002 2008 2012 Sales Sales Sales Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Retail Units Sales 6% Margin Retail Units Sales 5% Margin Category Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Small Petro 10.888 3.453,5 37.601,3 2.632,1 11.355 3.046,4 34.591,6 2.075,5 11.852 2.832,5 33.570,3 1.678,5 Small Diese 12.066 958,6 11.566,5 809,7 12.351 1.637,1 20.219,9 1.213,2 12.651 2.041,2 25.823,0 1.291,2 Midsize Pe 23.436 3.533,6 82.813,3 5.796,9 23.986 3.117,1 74.765,9 4.486,0 25.021 2.898,2 72.515,5 3.625,8 Midsize Die 19.152 3.444,0 65.959,1 4.617,1 19.479 4.289,8 83.560,3 5.013,6 20.228 4.809,5 97.284,4 4.864,2 Large Petro 41.342 781,9 32.325,5 2.262,8 42.182 789,1 33.285,0 1.997,1 44.370 780,6 34.637,3 1.731,9 Large Dies 28.137 931,4 26.205,5 1.834,4 28.987 1.029,6 29.844,3 1.790,7 30.608 1.111,9 34.031,6 1.701,6 Total: - 13.103,0 256.471,1 17.953,0 - 13.909,1 276.267,1 16.576,0 - 14.473,9 297.862,2 14.893,1 Change: - - - 6,2% -7,7% - 4,1% -10,2% Source: FORCAR
Within the worst case scenario we provide a decline of margins leading to a reduction of the total of sales margin. In 2008 dealers margin would decline by 7,7% and further 10,2% in 2012.
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The simulation according to 120g TNO shows a less intensive decrease of dealers margin in both years because the input data dictates same Sales Units for each CO2 scenarios despite the different car prices.
Table 6.52: 120g TNO: Effects on sales margin and volume by scenario – worst case Sales Margin 120g-TNO, reduced total of margin 2002 2008 2012 Sales Sales Sales Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Retail Units Sales 6% Margin Retail Units Sales 5% Margin Category Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Small Petrol 10.888 3.453,5 37.601,3 2.632,1 12.089 3.046,4 36.826,9 2.209,6 13.591 2.832,5 38.496,7 1.924,8 Small Diesel 12.066 958,6 11.566,5 809,7 12.480 1.637,1 20.432,1 1.225,9 14.086 2.041,2 28.753,2 1.437,7 Midsize Petrol 23.436 3.533,6 82.813,3 5.796,9 24.780 3.117,1 77.241,4 4.634,5 26.735 2.898,2 77.483,2 3.874,2 Midsize Diesel 19.152 3.444,0 65.959,1 4.617,1 19.756 4.289,8 84.750,6 5.085,0 21.956 4.809,5 105.595,2 5.279,8 Large Petrol 41.342 781,9 32.325,5 2.262,8 43.177 789,1 34.069,7 2.044,2 45.536 780,6 35.546,9 1.777,3 Large Diesel 28.137 931,4 26.205,5 1.834,4 29.038 1.029,6 29.897,2 1.793,8 31.809 1.111,9 35.366,7 1.768,3 Total: - 13.103,0 256.471,1 17.953,0 - 13.909,1 283.217,9 16.993,1 - 14.473,9 321.241,9 16.062,1 Change: - - - 6,2% -5,3% - 4,1% -5,5% Source: FORCAR
Comment: We would expect that higher car prices lead to an adjustment of sales from large, expensive car segment to the low priced segments. This would lead to a more realistic output of this simulation. Unfortunately the input data makes no differences between the three CO2 scenarios in sales output and category split.
Table 6.53: 130g TNO: Effects on sales margin and volume by scenario – worst case
Sales Margin 130g-TNO, reduced total of margin 2002 2008 2012 Sales Sales Sales Retail Units Sales 7% Margin Retail Units Sales 6,0% Margin Retail Units Sales 5,5 % Margin Category Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Price (in tsd.) (in Mil. €) (in Mil.) Small Petrol 10.888 3.453,5 37.601,3 2.632,1 12.089 3.046,4 36.826,9 2.209,6 12.867 2.832,5 36.444,9 1.822,2 Small Diesel 12.066 958,6 11.566,5 809,7 12.480 1.637,1 20.432,1 1.225,9 13.207 2.041,2 26.957,9 1.347,9 Midsize Petrol 23.436 3.533,6 82.813,3 5.796,9 24.780 3.117,1 77.241,4 4.634,5 25.773 2.898,2 74.696,5 3.734,8 Midsize Diesel 19.152 3.444,0 65.959,1 4.617,1 19.756 4.289,8 84.750,6 5.085,0 20.796 4.809,5 100.020,0 5.001,0 Large Petrol 41.342 781,9 32.325,5 2.262,8 43.177 789,1 34.069,7 2.044,2 44.398 780,6 34.658,7 1.732,9 Large Diesel 28.137 931,4 26.205,5 1.834,4 29.038 1.029,6 29.897,2 1.793,8 30.373 1.111,9 33.770,0 1.688,5 Total: - 13.103,0 256.471,1 17.953,0 - 13.909,1 283.217,9 16.993,1 - 14.473,9 306.548,0 15.327,4 Change: - - - 6,2% -5,3% - 4,1% -9,8% Source: FORCAR
In 2008 dealers margin would decline by 5,3% and further 9,8% in 2012. As result the process of concentration would be forced in a mitigated way in comparison to 120g IEEP.
6.3.6.3 Impact on dealership – by CO2 scenario The following charts show the expected range oft sales margin depending on the three
CO2 simulations. We expect a decrease of margins because the rising cost pressure within the car industry, caused by higher level of technology, rising manufacturers cost and retail prices. We do not expect that the rising costs can be passed on to the customers in full amount.
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For all three scenarios (120g IEEP, 120g TNO, 130g TNO) we act on the assumption, that the development will be located between middle and worst case. 120g-IEEP could lead to a decrease of margin to only 5% on each sold car and a total of margin loss of approx 3 Bill. Euro.
Figure 6.21: Impact on dealership – 120g-IEEP CO2 scenario
T o tal o f S ales M arg in 120g IE E P
22.000 u 20.000 18.000 16.000 14.000 12.000 Margin in M io. E 10.000 2002 2008 2012
Best Case Middle Case Worst Case
Percentage of Dealer Margin 120g IEEP
7,0 %7,0 % 7,0 % 7,0 % 7,0 %
6,5%
6,0% 6,0% Best Case Middle Case
5,0 % Worst Case
2002 2008 2012
Source: FORCAR
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Figure 6.22: Impact on dealership – 120g-TNO CO2 scenario
To tal o f S ales M argin 120g T N O
24.000 u 22.000 20.000 18.000 16.000 14.000 12.000 Margin in Mio. E 10.000 2002 2008 2012
Best Case Middle Case Worst Case
Percentage of Dealer Margin 120g TNO
7,0%7,0 % 7,0 % 7,0% 7,0%
6,3% 6,0% Best Case 5,6 % Middle Case
5,0 % Worst Case
2002 2008 2012
Source: FORCAR
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Figure 6.23: Impact on dealership – 130g-TNO CO2 scenario
T o tal o f S ales M arg in 130g T N O
24.000 u 22.000 20.000 18.000 16.000 14.000 12.000 Margin in Mio. E 10.000 2002 2008 2012
Best Case Middle Case Worst Case
P e rc e nta ge of De a le r M a rgin 1 3 0 g TNO
7,0%7,0 % 7,0 % 7,0% 7,0%
6,3%
6,0% 5,9 % Best Case 5,5% Middle Case Worst Case
2002 2008 2012
Source: FORCAR
6.3.7 Summary and perspectives
6.3.7.1 Administrative Actions and Burdens to achieve targets Basically, there are two methods, to reach the 120g/km objectives. On the one hand, we define some kind of quotas for cars with different CO2 emissions, which carmaker have to fulfil. On the other hand, legislation is implementing consumer taxes (CO2-Taxes).
Thus if tax rates are high enough, customers are going to select cars with lower CO2- levels.
The case applying CO2-quotas allows fulfilling the 120g target directly. A car will only get permission for registration, if its CO2 emission is reaching the standard. If a carmaker sells a car with 100 g/CO2, he gets the chance to use the 20 g/CO2 surplus as credit for registration of a 140 g/CO2 car. Thus each carmaker CO2 emissions are
- 162 - balanced. Of course, the surpluses should be tradable. Thus, if e.g. Porsche is manufacturing only cars with 180 CO2 emission, it has to buy from other carmakers surplus-credits of 60 CO2 g/km for each car. Such a procedure will very fast lead to implementation of the targets and allows the industry to reach the target without forcing each company to reach the objective. Within each of the two mentioned methods, we will arrive at some kind of prices (shadow-prices) for surplus-credits. This means, that on the one hand, there is a strong push to innovate to achieve the 120 target. On the other hand, it is punishing companies whose cars offend against the targets. Due to our model, that these additional costs – e.g. buying surplus credits or implementation of cleaner technology – will lead to a shift in car prices towards smaller cars. Thus, we expect that in addition to the calculations of TNO, a shift towards the smaller car segments will arise. This shift will favour Korean, Japanese, French and Italian carmakers and lead to disadvantages at German, Swedish, British carmakers. In sum, higher prices will have negative effects on production, supply and employment of German, Swedish and British carmakers. As Non-European carmakers will gain stronger as European carmaker, we expect a demand shift from European to non- European carmakers in Europe. According to dealernet, we also have to calculate with lower turnover and thus employment within the branch. Carmakers are typically large-sized companies with exception of manufacturer of sporty and tuning companies. These smaller companies will be confronted with negative demand effects. Within the supplier world, we do not see a different pattern, due to the fact that small, medium and large supplier are delivering its products to carmaker of small, medium sized and large cars.
6.3.7.2 Effects on Employment within EU25 Basically, we realize strong differences as regards the IEEP and TNO-scenarios.
Looking at TNO scenario the CO2 regulation will show stronger effects on car industry, which should be taken into account by the politicians. On the one hand, we expect with 120 TNO regulation clear employment effects caused by the environment policy. In sum, we expect that with 120 g/km CO2-regulation will result in roughly 40.000 job cuts at carmaker in EU25. At the supplier industry, additional 43.000 job cuts have to be expected according to our model. That means, environmental policy is in conflict with employment policy within the automotive sector in EU25. For dealer-net means the 120 g/km CO2-regulation enforced competition and concentration. Whereas EU15 and consequential the EU25 in sum will be hit by job-cuts, EU10 and much more NON-EU will take the profit of employment effects.
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6.3.7.3 Effects on R&D Next to the calculated employment and distribution effects, we have to take into account that stronger regulation (120 g/CO2) leads to additional expenditures in research and development (R&D). The incentive to spend money into R&D will be a medium and long term consequence. Carmakers and supplier will try to lower the price effect of the regulation by investments in R&D. Thus, competition in the car-market leads in the long run to more sophisticated technical solutions reaching the regulatory standards. Thus, we could derive some kind of effects which will improve the competitive situation of western European car industry. Regulatory burden provides incentives to invest in R&D, which ends up in a competitive advantage in the international car markets.
6.3.7.4 International Car markets
Today we realize different CO2 and emission regulations within different market regions. While US is focusing on e.g. sulphur and NOX emission, Asia and Eastern Europe (Non-EU) has overall lower emission standards. The difference within emission standards could lead to comparative disadvantages of carmakers. Looking at world car markets, it is important that regulatory constraint in different regions converge. For example, if the US-car market has lower CO2 standards, European carmaker will be confronted with an unfavourable regulatory varsity. Thus, if we have to design cars for the US-market with different standards, the European carmakers will face a cost burden, because export volumes are lower than production volumes of US-carmakers in US or Japanese carmakers in the US. The effect is a consequence of economies of scale, which strongly speak against the European carmakers. Due to the fact, the model does not include these effects (US-Market, international markets), we are in a situation in which we only can evaluate the effects qualitatively. In general, it seems to be that the regulatory burden calculated in our model will be mitigated by the above mentioned arguments. Still, it should be taken initiative of a global regulatory approach, to avoid disadvantages for the European car industry. If the politicians could arrive at such a position, it makes despite our calculated effects sense. Note: The US-Market is a major market even for European car-manufacturer, especially the premium-brands. So we mentioned the importance as a major export-market. The Japanese- and Korean-markets are very small markets for the European car industry. In 2005 the share of European brand in US-market had been nearly 10%. In Japan the share had been below 5%. In South-Korea European cars play no role. The US-market stands for 17 Mill. sold cars per year, the Japanese-market is lower than 5 Mill. per year and Korean-market is below 2 Mill. sold cars per year.
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6.3.7.5 Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade While European carmakers will have competitive disadvantages in car markets like North America if different emission standards prevail, Koreans, Japanese or later on
Chinese carmaker will suffer cost disadvantages to export to EU. The strong CO2 emission rules in EU call for specific technology, which is more expensive for e.g. Koreans than Europeans due to economies of scale. Thus, this economy of scale effect is partly levelling off the disadvantages for Northern European carmakers as described in point 1 above.
6.3.7.6 Profit-Situation European Car Industry and Concentration Due to strong competition within the European car markets, it can not expected that the cost-effects of improved environmental compatibility (CO2-targets) will be completely added to car-prices. Thus, profit situation of carmakers and supplier will further deteriorate. As volume carmaker face small margins addition cost pressure will lead to a higher risk for bankruptcy at European volume carmaker. As part of the cost pressure is shifted from carmakers to supplier, we also have to calculate with higher bankruptcy risks within the supplier industry. Especially vulnerable to that risk are smaller suppliers. Thus, it should be expected that with stronger CO2-standards (120g/km) the industry will go into stronger concentration.
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7 Conclusions
Within this chapter the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of the introduction of more fuel efficient technologies in order to reduce CO2 emissions in passenger transport after 2009 were analysed, to complement the cost-effectiveness, welfare and environmental analysis performed with TREMOVE and presented in chapters 4 and 5. The macroeconomic analysis is carried out in the framework of the dynamic CGE model PACE-T which captures all economic repercussion effects. The model has a special focus on the passenger transport sector. Passenger cars are modelled as durable consumption goods with the automobile capital stock in each period depending on the automobile capital stock in the previous period plus new investment. The representative household is assumed to consume transportation services which mainly depend on the capital services of the automobile stock, fuel expenditures and expenditures for operation and maintenance. The model is calibrated on the TREMOVE output. Since PACE-T assumes only one car category, the TREMOVE data for the different car categories are condensed to yield an “average“ car (with the car cost components being an average of the different categories in TREMOVE). Based on the TREMOVE output, cost data for the scenario analysis is implemented similarly. The results of the macroeconomic analysis suggest very small changes in all three scenarios compared to the baseline development. Transport demand and real consumption is slightly negative affected. This also holds true for real GDP. These findings are due to, on the one hand, increased purchase costs and, on the other hand, reduced fuel consumption. Car imports and exports in the EU experience the largest changes of all macroeconomic variables. The reason is of course the fact that the assumed increases in car purchase costs make European cars more expensive than those in other world regions. Consequently, car exports decrease and car imports increase. The effects are largest in the EU10 since the percentage increase for the average passenger car is the largest in all EU regions. The impact on tax revenues is also negative. This effect shows the losses in revenues from fixed taxes due to reduced transportation demand and from variable taxes due to the decrease of fuel consumption and thus fuel tax revenues. Productivity hardly changes in any of the considered scenarios. The distribution of income is only slightly affected since real wages and interest rates deviate from the baseline to a very small extent. Given all these effects, social welfare is negatively impacted but the size of this effect is very small. Having a look at the sectoral shifts in PACE-T, there is a negative trend in employment in the sector for oil and refined oil products and a positive trend in the sector for motor
- 166 - vehicles and parts. Sectoral capital and investment evolve accordingly. Again the percentage deviations from the baseline are modest. All these qualitative effects are similar in the three scenarios with the extent, however, depending on the assumed increase in purchase costs and decrease in fuel costs. Consequently, the impact in the 120g-TNO(2006d) is the largest among all scenarios while it is smallest in the 120g-IEEP(2004) scenario. The analysis of the structure in the automotive industry with FORCAR shows that the automobile industry already has started to shift plants to Eastern Europe ten years before the process of the EU extension from EU15 to EU25 has been started. Important financial and investment decisions have already been taken by European volume- manufacturer and companies of the supplier-industry. Starting from the input-data of IEEP and TNO concerning the rising technology-costs based on the targets 120g or 130g CO2 emission in 2012 we expect the input values of the TNO high-cost scenario will be more realistic than the data of the IEEP-low-cost- scenario. Generally we see a decrease in employment within the EU25 countries caused by intensified emission-limit-values. The losses of employees at car-manufacturers vary from a minimum of 0,6% (120g-low-costs-scenario) to a maximum of 2,1% (120g-high- cost-scenario). The effects on the supplier-industry caused by rising technology costs will be substantially stronger. The enduring and increasing cost pressure has been passed on from the manufacturer to the supplier-industry during the past and that process is still going on in an aggravate way. The losses of employees at supplier- industry vary from a minimum of 3,7% (120g-low-costs-scenario) to a maximum of 5,4% (120g-high-cost-scenario). The simulation of all three scenarios – based on technical measures to increase fuel efficiency – shows a trade-off between employment-situation (employment-policy) and environmental policy. Looking at the 120g-high costs scenario the CO2 regulation will show stronger effects on automotive industry, which should be taken into account. So we expect that a 120g CO2 regulation will result in a number of job cuts at carmaker and more significant in supplier-industry within the EU25 member states. Since these major job cuts exceed the target of the Lisbon strategy of the European Union by far, this scenario will not be useful for policy regulations in the car sector. Because of the underestimated costs in the 120g IEEP-scenario, this scenario will not be realistic, too. Therefore we expect the 130g-target based on the higher TNO-costs as most likely scenario. Looking at world car markets, it is important that regulatory constraint in different regions converge. For example, if the US-car market has lower CO2 standards,
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European carmaker will be confronted with an unfavourable regulatory varsity. Thus, if we have to design cars for the US-market with different standards, the European carmakers will face a cost burden, because export volumes are lower than production volumes of US-carmakers in US or Japanese carmakers in the US. The effect is a consequence of economies of scale, which strongly speak against the European carmakers. Thus it should be taken initiative of a global regulatory approach, to avoid disadvantages for the European car industry. Given the analysis of the transport and automotive sector as well as the macroeconomic impact assessment with three different models, there is one thing that is worth mentioning. As becomes obvious in the report, sectoral employment effects are different in PACE-T and FORCAR. While PACE-T finds small positive effects in the sector for motor vehicles and parts, FORCAR projects negative effects at the manufacturer and supplier level. The reason for the different results in PACE-T and FORCAR are the different assumptions and methodologies of the models. PACE-T can only quantify sectoral employment shifts but not aggregated effects on unemployment. The model assumes that labour supply is fixed and not internationally mobile. In a CGE model changes in the demand and prices in different production sectors lead to an immediate adjustment in the input factors, i.e. firms and households react without any frictions on changes in prices. Given the changes in car purchase prices and fuel consumption, demand and output in the different production sectors also change (including the economy-wide repercussion effects). According to these changes there will be different shifts in employment. Consequently, the negative employment effect in the sector for refined oil products and the other sectors is offset by positive effects in the sector for motor vehicles and parts. In contrast, the FORCAR model only looks at the supply side and takes into account the current financial and investment decisions of the manufacturer and supplier industry. Their decision on labour demand depends on the current investment plans, the current production plans and on the productivity level of the company. If the cars are getting more expensive due to regulatory policy on technical measures, they try to increase efficiency in their given plants and if the investment plants allow a relocation of the plants they will decide where they will build their new plants. Due to the high share of labour costs at the overall production costs, the car producers try to subsidies labour by capital or by shifting the production plants to regions where labour costs are cheaper. Both models are in line with economic theory and both models generate understandable and realistic results. However, due to these different assumptions, both model results deviate from each other and are hardly comparable to each other. Of course, in reality agents will not adjust their behaviour immediately to changes in the microeconomic variables. Firms have investment and production plans that are fixed for years in
- 168 - advance. We think the assumption in PACE-T is very strong and might not take into account frictions in real world business. Therefore, the small negative employment effect found in FORCAR might be in closer accordance to empirical findings. To conclude, the effects of the analysed scenarios on the macroeconomic and automotive level are very modest. Depending on the assumed purchase cost increases in order to reach a given reduction target of CO2 emissions, the effects are of somewhat smaller or larger size. But anyway, if the plans to lower CO2 emissions of passenger cars are really put into practice and the effective changes in car purchase costs and fuel consumption lie in the range of the three scenarios considered in this report with all three models, the results of this analysis with the various economic models suggest very moderate effects at the transport, macroeconomic and automotive level.
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9 Annex 1 – TREMOVE runs used for macro-economic and sectoral analysis
CO2 of small cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 222.573.115 214.007.430 206.514.752 199.827.492 193.865.918 188.065.413 189.591.280 190.816.955 190.662.933 190.760.242 190.777.464 189.838.907 188.745.654 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 222.573.115 214.007.465 206.514.786 199.827.526 193.865.952 188.065.444 189.591.310 190.816.984 190.662.960 190.760.269 190.777.488 189.838.930 188.745.676 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 222.573.115 214.007.465 206.514.786 199.827.526 193.865.952 188.065.444 189.591.310 190.816.984 190.662.960 190.760.269 190.777.488 189.838.930 188.745.676 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 222.573.115 214.007.465 206.514.786 199.827.526 193.865.952 188.065.444 189.591.310 190.816.984 190.662.960 190.760.269 190.777.488 189.838.930 188.745.676
EU15 Baseline 172.743.325 171.167.357 169.871.943 168.926.104 168.242.986 167.796.263 167.572.643 167.559.124 167.737.974 168.078.559 168.571.668 169.195.010 169.941.773 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 172.743.346 171.167.377 169.394.829 167.428.748 165.107.434 163.109.189 161.455.315 160.152.407 159.194.860 158.542.634 158.186.925 158.110.979 158.309.941 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 172.743.346 171.167.377 169.154.463 166.606.586 163.367.314 160.332.976 157.663.699 155.366.057 153.443.808 151.849.598 150.579.439 149.621.552 148.976.263 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 172.743.346 171.167.377 169.564.913 167.881.045 165.948.752 164.265.881 162.900.473 161.853.625 161.124.644 160.677.736 160.508.857 160.603.158 160.957.427
EU10 Baseline 14.770.257 15.002.073 15.262.739 15.425.988 15.606.331 15.802.416 16.010.613 16.224.363 16.440.324 16.661.253 16.897.132 17.137.786 17.400.778 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.770.258 15.002.074 15.213.317 15.290.585 15.335.357 15.386.412 15.439.298 15.485.135 15.521.099 15.550.093 15.585.020 15.612.816 15.666.131 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.770.258 15.002.074 15.194.924 15.227.775 15.201.872 15.166.441 15.128.033 15.074.319 15.000.885 14.907.845 14.807.532 14.685.419 14.580.834 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.770.258 15.002.074 15.226.470 15.319.588 15.388.662 15.460.697 15.536.726 15.607.442 15.669.398 15.724.151 15.783.259 15.834.525 15.907.516
AT Baseline 4.011.076 3.630.430 3.287.055 2.976.933 2.696.941 2.444.039 2.448.580 2.445.523 2.426.173 2.400.231 2.368.338 2.335.419 2.301.477 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.011.076 3.630.430 3.287.055 2.976.933 2.696.941 2.444.039 2.448.580 2.445.523 2.426.173 2.400.231 2.368.338 2.335.419 2.301.477 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.011.076 3.630.430 3.287.055 2.976.933 2.696.941 2.444.039 2.448.580 2.445.523 2.426.173 2.400.231 2.368.338 2.335.419 2.301.477 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.011.076 3.630.430 3.287.055 2.976.933 2.696.941 2.444.039 2.448.580 2.445.523 2.426.173 2.400.231 2.368.338 2.335.419 2.301.477
BE Baseline 3.613.427 3.426.135 3.359.782 3.289.303 3.261.966 2.967.106 2.820.950 2.698.947 2.571.915 2.541.346 2.491.603 2.465.605 2.443.855 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.613.427 3.426.169 3.359.816 3.289.335 3.261.999 2.967.137 2.820.980 2.698.976 2.571.942 2.541.373 2.491.627 2.465.627 2.443.877 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.613.427 3.426.169 3.359.816 3.289.335 3.261.999 2.967.137 2.820.980 2.698.976 2.571.942 2.541.373 2.491.627 2.465.627 2.443.877 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.613.427 3.426.169 3.359.816 3.289.335 3.261.999 2.967.137 2.820.980 2.698.976 2.571.942 2.541.373 2.491.627 2.465.627 2.443.877
CZ Baseline 2.370.768 2.429.031 2.489.410 2.553.734 2.620.094 2.688.219 2.743.644 2.799.935 2.842.863 2.722.222 2.750.886 2.792.139 2.837.855 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.370.768 2.429.031 2.489.410 2.553.734 2.620.094 2.688.219 2.743.644 2.799.935 2.842.863 2.722.222 2.750.886 2.792.139 2.837.855 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.370.768 2.429.031 2.489.410 2.553.734 2.620.094 2.688.219 2.743.644 2.799.935 2.842.863 2.722.222 2.750.886 2.792.139 2.837.855 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.370.768 2.429.031 2.489.410 2.553.734 2.620.094 2.688.219 2.743.644 2.799.935 2.842.863 2.722.222 2.750.886 2.792.139 2.837.855
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 26.795.942 26.470.651 26.148.064 25.828.723 25.515.074 25.183.884 25.233.386 25.228.696 25.156.692 25.039.330 24.879.238 24.795.039 24.682.298 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 26.795.942 26.470.651 26.148.064 25.828.723 25.515.074 25.183.884 25.233.386 25.228.696 25.156.692 25.039.330 24.879.238 24.795.039 24.682.298 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 26.795.942 26.470.651 26.148.064 25.828.723 25.515.074 25.183.884 25.233.386 25.228.696 25.156.692 25.039.330 24.879.238 24.795.039 24.682.298 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 26.795.942 26.470.651 26.148.064 25.828.723 25.515.074 25.183.884 25.233.386 25.228.696 25.156.692 25.039.330 24.879.238 24.795.039 24.682.298
DK Baseline 5.056.451 4.771.717 4.504.720 4.254.029 4.018.821 3.797.195 3.798.145 3.794.188 3.767.021 3.732.766 3.689.351 3.616.414 3.538.694 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.056.451 4.771.717 4.504.720 4.254.029 4.018.821 3.797.195 3.798.145 3.794.188 3.767.021 3.732.766 3.689.351 3.616.414 3.538.694 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.056.451 4.771.717 4.504.720 4.254.029 4.018.821 3.797.195 3.798.145 3.794.188 3.767.021 3.732.766 3.689.351 3.616.414 3.538.694 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.056.451 4.771.717 4.504.720 4.254.029 4.018.821 3.797.195 3.798.145 3.794.188 3.767.021 3.732.766 3.689.351 3.616.414 3.538.694
ES Baseline 22.741.353 21.466.968 20.260.812 19.121.472 18.050.064 17.040.717 17.519.545 17.968.477 18.379.485 18.757.090 19.105.178 19.126.621 19.128.962 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 22.741.353 21.466.968 20.260.812 19.121.472 18.050.064 17.040.717 17.519.545 17.968.477 18.379.485 18.757.090 19.105.178 19.126.621 19.128.962 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 22.741.353 21.466.968 20.260.812 19.121.472 18.050.064 17.040.717 17.519.545 17.968.477 18.379.485 18.757.090 19.105.178 19.126.621 19.128.962 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 22.741.353 21.466.968 20.260.812 19.121.472 18.050.064 17.040.717 17.519.545 17.968.477 18.379.485 18.757.090 19.105.178 19.126.621 19.128.962
FI Baseline 9.104.734 6.814.498 5.102.121 3.821.672 2.863.802 2.146.952 2.156.843 2.163.955 2.158.631 2.150.416 2.138.943 2.106.851 2.072.190 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.104.734 6.814.498 5.102.121 3.821.672 2.863.802 2.146.952 2.156.843 2.163.955 2.158.631 2.150.416 2.138.943 2.106.851 2.072.190 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.104.734 6.814.498 5.102.121 3.821.672 2.863.802 2.146.952 2.156.843 2.163.955 2.158.631 2.150.416 2.138.943 2.106.851 2.072.190 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.104.734 6.814.498 5.102.121 3.821.672 2.863.802 2.146.952 2.156.843 2.163.955 2.158.631 2.150.416 2.138.943 2.106.851 2.072.190
FR Baseline 25.836.851 25.162.063 24.524.345 23.920.490 23.347.312 22.777.005 22.965.806 23.109.254 23.195.890 23.235.024 23.230.082 23.019.523 22.781.517 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 25.836.851 25.162.063 24.524.345 23.920.490 23.347.312 22.777.005 22.965.806 23.109.254 23.195.890 23.235.024 23.230.082 23.019.523 22.781.517 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 25.836.851 25.162.063 24.524.345 23.920.490 23.347.312 22.777.005 22.965.806 23.109.254 23.195.890 23.235.024 23.230.082 23.019.523 22.781.517 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 25.836.851 25.162.063 24.524.345 23.920.490 23.347.312 22.777.005 22.965.806 23.109.254 23.195.890 23.235.024 23.230.082 23.019.523 22.781.517
GR Baseline 5.581.757 5.809.404 6.044.052 6.286.686 6.538.524 6.794.085 6.971.542 7.150.688 7.314.205 7.468.115 7.613.057 7.534.462 7.457.022 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.581.757 5.809.404 6.044.052 6.286.686 6.538.524 6.794.085 6.971.542 7.150.688 7.314.205 7.468.115 7.613.057 7.534.462 7.457.022 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.581.757 5.809.404 6.044.052 6.286.686 6.538.524 6.794.085 6.971.542 7.150.688 7.314.205 7.468.115 7.613.057 7.534.462 7.457.022 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.581.757 5.809.404 6.044.052 6.286.686 6.538.524 6.794.085 6.971.542 7.150.688 7.314.205 7.468.115 7.613.057 7.534.462 7.457.022
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 2.606.570 2.584.161 2.558.978 2.537.555 2.512.632 2.490.275 2.517.108 2.543.095 2.360.015 2.346.720 2.350.668 2.360.282 2.381.333 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.606.570 2.584.161 2.558.978 2.537.555 2.512.632 2.490.275 2.517.108 2.543.095 2.360.015 2.346.720 2.350.668 2.360.282 2.381.333 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.606.570 2.584.161 2.558.978 2.537.555 2.512.632 2.490.275 2.517.108 2.543.095 2.360.015 2.346.720 2.350.668 2.360.282 2.381.333 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.606.570 2.584.161 2.558.978 2.537.555 2.512.632 2.490.275 2.517.108 2.543.095 2.360.015 2.346.720 2.350.668 2.360.282 2.381.333
IE Baseline 2.193.309 2.239.342 2.285.338 2.331.528 2.378.078 2.422.153 2.489.346 2.552.164 2.596.251 2.635.302 2.669.143 2.662.551 2.651.745 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.193.309 2.239.342 2.285.338 2.331.528 2.378.078 2.422.153 2.489.346 2.552.164 2.596.251 2.635.302 2.669.143 2.662.551 2.651.745 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.193.309 2.239.342 2.285.338 2.331.528 2.378.078 2.422.153 2.489.346 2.552.164 2.596.251 2.635.302 2.669.143 2.662.551 2.651.745 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.193.309 2.239.342 2.285.338 2.331.528 2.378.078 2.422.153 2.489.346 2.552.164 2.596.251 2.635.302 2.669.143 2.662.551 2.651.745
IT Baseline 53.654.649 51.550.179 49.527.733 47.587.928 45.737.233 43.951.373 43.901.895 43.746.084 43.498.753 43.164.011 42.748.234 42.497.708 42.189.897 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 53.654.649 51.550.179 49.527.733 47.587.928 45.737.233 43.951.373 43.901.895 43.746.084 43.498.753 43.164.011 42.748.234 42.497.708 42.189.897 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 53.654.649 51.550.179 49.527.733 47.587.928 45.737.233 43.951.373 43.901.895 43.746.084 43.498.753 43.164.011 42.748.234 42.497.708 42.189.897 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 53.654.649 51.550.179 49.527.733 47.587.928 45.737.233 43.951.373 43.901.895 43.746.084 43.498.753 43.164.011 42.748.234 42.497.708 42.189.897
LU Baseline 333.473 286.581 246.169 211.216 180.943 154.492 154.620 154.090 152.613 151.095 149.361 147.069 144.486 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 333.473 286.581 246.169 211.216 180.943 154.492 154.620 154.090 152.613 151.095 149.361 147.069 144.486 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 333.473 286.581 246.169 211.216 180.943 154.492 154.620 154.090 152.613 151.095 149.361 147.069 144.486 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 333.473 286.581 246.169 211.216 180.943 154.492 154.620 154.090 152.613 151.095 149.361 147.069 144.486
NL Baseline 9.209.271 8.998.109 8.794.701 8.600.149 8.414.651 8.227.736 8.309.042 8.364.845 8.386.582 8.384.002 8.360.716 8.336.431 8.303.444 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.209.271 8.998.109 8.794.701 8.600.149 8.414.651 8.227.736 8.309.042 8.364.845 8.386.582 8.384.002 8.360.716 8.336.431 8.303.444 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.209.271 8.998.109 8.794.701 8.600.149 8.414.651 8.227.736 8.309.042 8.364.845 8.386.582 8.384.002 8.360.716 8.336.431 8.303.444 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.209.271 8.998.109 8.794.701 8.600.149 8.414.651 8.227.736 8.309.042 8.364.845 8.386.582 8.384.002 8.360.716 8.336.431 8.303.444
PL Baseline 6.001.066 5.950.748 5.916.246 5.897.560 5.884.621 5.845.124 5.992.234 6.163.289 5.842.279 5.924.636 6.056.590 6.114.499 6.186.630 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.001.066 5.950.748 5.916.246 5.897.560 5.884.621 5.845.124 5.992.234 6.163.289 5.842.279 5.924.636 6.056.590 6.114.499 6.186.630 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.001.066 5.950.748 5.916.246 5.897.560 5.884.621 5.845.124 5.992.234 6.163.289 5.842.279 5.924.636 6.056.590 6.114.499 6.186.630 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.001.066 5.950.748 5.916.246 5.897.560 5.884.621 5.845.124 5.992.234 6.163.289 5.842.279 5.924.636 6.056.590 6.114.499 6.186.630
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 4.741.761 5.154.078 5.598.268 6.078.324 6.597.869 7.149.593 7.259.902 7.352.662 7.432.982 7.501.473 7.556.192 7.470.754 7.370.779 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.741.761 5.154.078 5.598.268 6.078.324 6.597.869 7.149.593 7.259.902 7.352.662 7.432.982 7.501.473 7.556.192 7.470.754 7.370.779 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.741.761 5.154.078 5.598.268 6.078.324 6.597.869 7.149.593 7.259.902 7.352.662 7.432.982 7.501.473 7.556.192 7.470.754 7.370.779 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.741.761 5.154.078 5.598.268 6.078.324 6.597.869 7.149.593 7.259.902 7.352.662 7.432.982 7.501.473 7.556.192 7.470.754 7.370.779
SE Baseline 4.058.971 3.808.032 3.573.720 3.354.688 3.150.155 2.958.353 2.975.229 2.991.438 2.997.237 2.997.626 2.991.753 2.960.107 2.925.522 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.058.971 3.808.032 3.573.720 3.354.688 3.150.155 2.958.353 2.975.229 2.991.438 2.997.237 2.997.626 2.991.753 2.960.107 2.925.522 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.058.971 3.808.032 3.573.720 3.354.688 3.150.155 2.958.353 2.975.229 2.991.438 2.997.237 2.997.626 2.991.753 2.960.107 2.925.522 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.058.971 3.808.032 3.573.720 3.354.688 3.150.155 2.958.353 2.975.229 2.991.438 2.997.237 2.997.626 2.991.753 2.960.107 2.925.522
SI Baseline 558.931 552.001 545.240 538.915 532.718 526.304 529.693 533.948 536.939 538.330 538.223 539.994 541.520 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 558.931 552.002 545.241 538.915 532.718 526.304 529.693 533.948 536.939 538.331 538.223 539.995 541.520 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 558.931 552.002 545.241 538.915 532.718 526.304 529.693 533.948 536.939 538.331 538.223 539.995 541.520 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 558.931 552.002 545.241 538.915 532.718 526.304 529.693 533.948 536.939 538.331 538.223 539.995 541.520
UK Baseline 31.570.170 30.375.413 29.221.441 28.106.103 27.029.040 25.965.460 26.217.327 26.412.692 26.503.994 26.539.115 26.522.413 26.365.678 26.183.844 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 31.570.170 30.375.413 29.221.441 28.106.103 27.029.040 25.965.460 26.217.327 26.412.692 26.503.994 26.539.115 26.522.413 26.365.678 26.183.844 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 31.570.170 30.375.413 29.221.441 28.106.103 27.029.040 25.965.460 26.217.327 26.412.692 26.503.994 26.539.115 26.522.413 26.365.678 26.183.844 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 31.570.170 30.375.413 29.221.441 28.106.103 27.029.040 25.965.460 26.217.327 26.412.692 26.503.994 26.539.115 26.522.413 26.365.678 26.183.844
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 187.513.582 186.169.430 185.134.682 184.352.092 183.849.318 183.598.679 183.583.256 183.783.487 184.178.298 184.739.811 185.468.801 186.332.797 187.342.551 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 187.513.603 186.169.450 184.608.146 182.719.333 180.442.791 178.495.601 176.894.613 175.637.542 174.715.959 174.092.727 173.771.945 173.723.795 173.976.071 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 187.513.603 186.169.450 184.349.387 181.834.361 178.569.186 175.499.417 172.791.732 170.440.376 168.444.693 166.757.443 165.386.971 164.306.971 163.557.097 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 187.513.603 186.169.450 184.791.383 183.200.633 181.337.415 179.726.578 178.437.199 177.461.067 176.794.042 176.401.887 176.292.116 176.437.683 176.864.944
EU15 Baseline 172.743.325 171.167.357 169.871.943 168.926.104 168.242.986 167.796.263 167.572.643 167.559.124 167.737.974 168.078.559 168.571.668 169.195.010 169.941.773 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 172.743.346 171.167.377 169.394.829 167.428.748 165.107.434 163.109.189 161.455.315 160.152.407 159.194.860 158.542.634 158.186.925 158.110.979 158.309.941 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 172.743.346 171.167.377 169.154.463 166.606.586 163.367.314 160.332.976 157.663.699 155.366.057 153.443.808 151.849.598 150.579.439 149.621.552 148.976.263 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 172.743.346 171.167.377 169.564.913 167.881.045 165.948.752 164.265.881 162.900.473 161.853.625 161.124.644 160.677.736 160.508.857 160.603.158 160.957.427
EU10 Baseline 14.770.257 15.002.073 15.262.739 15.425.988 15.606.331 15.802.416 16.010.613 16.224.363 16.440.324 16.661.253 16.897.132 17.137.786 17.400.778 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.770.258 15.002.074 15.213.317 15.290.585 15.335.357 15.386.412 15.439.298 15.485.135 15.521.099 15.550.093 15.585.020 15.612.816 15.666.131 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.770.258 15.002.074 15.194.924 15.227.775 15.201.872 15.166.441 15.128.033 15.074.319 15.000.885 14.907.845 14.807.532 14.685.419 14.580.834 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.770.258 15.002.074 15.226.470 15.319.588 15.388.662 15.460.697 15.536.726 15.607.442 15.669.398 15.724.151 15.783.259 15.834.525 15.907.516
AT Baseline 2.268.746 2.239.244 2.219.061 2.203.698 2.195.148 2.191.625 2.191.110 2.192.165 2.193.460 2.194.637 2.196.091 2.198.753 2.203.389 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.268.746 2.239.244 2.218.811 2.200.590 2.181.222 2.168.118 2.159.042 2.152.445 2.146.988 2.142.470 2.139.432 2.139.121 2.142.296 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.268.746 2.239.244 2.215.604 2.190.468 2.161.092 2.137.369 2.117.833 2.100.389 2.083.341 2.066.186 2.049.548 2.034.973 2.023.683 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.268.746 2.239.244 2.221.129 2.206.452 2.191.665 2.182.302 2.176.848 2.173.829 2.171.942 2.170.974 2.171.381 2.174.294 2.180.380
BE Baseline 2.423.289 2.402.430 2.395.485 2.361.641 2.347.734 2.338.384 2.333.014 2.331.157 2.340.272 2.344.029 2.350.165 2.358.261 2.367.833 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.423.309 2.402.450 2.387.226 2.337.425 2.295.169 2.256.875 2.223.829 2.196.807 2.184.000 2.170.220 2.162.458 2.160.434 2.163.715 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.423.309 2.402.450 2.383.140 2.323.259 2.265.023 2.207.871 2.155.904 2.109.984 2.078.418 2.046.587 2.021.356 2.002.741 1.990.564 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.423.309 2.402.450 2.390.103 2.344.600 2.308.392 2.275.432 2.247.642 2.225.360 2.216.612 2.205.952 2.200.642 2.200.505 2.205.158
CZ Baseline 2.887.097 2.938.698 2.998.554 3.031.983 3.069.749 3.110.103 3.154.466 3.202.013 3.252.100 3.303.696 3.357.042 3.413.588 3.468.707 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.887.097 2.938.698 2.988.009 3.004.012 3.014.873 3.026.899 3.042.035 3.059.294 3.078.178 3.096.297 3.113.137 3.131.131 3.143.010 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.887.097 2.938.698 2.984.089 2.991.333 2.988.585 2.984.281 2.982.687 2.982.564 2.983.357 2.981.730 2.976.484 2.969.951 2.953.730 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.887.097 2.938.698 2.990.799 3.010.180 3.026.173 3.042.698 3.062.503 3.084.561 3.108.344 3.131.584 3.153.789 3.176.919 3.194.407
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 24.545.600 24.390.194 24.275.798 24.159.299 24.081.226 24.037.695 24.026.614 24.046.377 24.092.313 24.163.806 24.258.679 24.373.782 24.508.778 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 24.545.600 24.390.194 24.206.346 23.943.966 23.624.013 23.345.936 23.120.648 22.949.842 22.829.735 22.758.075 22.732.260 22.749.665 22.809.823 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 24.545.600 24.390.194 24.170.269 23.812.509 23.338.756 22.877.761 22.471.803 22.122.307 21.827.472 21.584.559 21.392.287 21.249.137 21.155.611 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 24.545.600 24.390.194 24.231.970 24.006.046 23.735.244 23.493.059 23.299.601 23.155.746 23.058.804 23.007.142 22.999.000 23.032.080 23.106.225
DK Baseline 3.457.171 3.375.648 3.309.016 3.238.774 3.182.259 3.140.879 3.112.160 3.090.707 3.070.058 3.046.516 3.019.779 2.992.113 2.967.382 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.457.171 3.375.648 3.311.970 3.237.811 3.168.901 3.118.909 3.083.453 3.056.287 3.030.283 3.001.971 2.971.566 2.941.988 2.917.265 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.457.171 3.375.648 3.306.389 3.222.509 3.140.896 3.080.353 3.036.700 3.002.689 2.969.844 2.933.465 2.893.336 2.852.469 2.815.417 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.457.171 3.375.648 3.315.963 3.248.032 3.186.943 3.143.106 3.112.865 3.090.514 3.069.563 3.046.791 3.022.336 2.998.833 2.979.999
ES Baseline 19.115.070 19.087.283 19.087.789 19.168.809 19.274.443 19.401.624 19.548.530 19.713.643 19.893.940 20.088.572 20.295.529 20.513.107 20.740.831 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 19.115.070 19.087.283 19.028.903 18.991.349 18.917.335 18.875.502 18.864.197 18.882.464 18.928.747 18.999.570 19.092.956 19.207.796 19.344.299 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 19.115.070 19.087.283 19.004.609 18.908.763 18.743.432 18.600.506 18.490.404 18.411.922 18.364.349 18.342.318 18.343.758 18.367.348 18.413.121 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 19.115.070 19.087.283 19.045.974 19.037.789 19.003.636 18.994.082 19.012.555 19.057.928 19.129.069 19.223.120 19.338.541 19.474.435 19.631.103
FI Baseline 2.033.506 1.989.674 1.946.700 1.917.436 1.895.729 1.884.060 1.882.334 1.888.786 1.900.584 1.913.808 1.924.811 1.932.036 1.936.215 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.033.506 1.989.674 1.946.756 1.915.670 1.886.524 1.869.842 1.864.442 1.867.831 1.876.526 1.886.463 1.894.184 1.898.890 1.902.057 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.033.506 1.989.674 1.943.504 1.904.302 1.863.205 1.834.937 1.820.344 1.816.793 1.820.197 1.825.343 1.827.610 1.825.334 1.819.658 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.033.506 1.989.674 1.949.036 1.922.052 1.897.793 1.884.491 1.881.858 1.887.633 1.898.665 1.911.195 1.921.918 1.929.963 1.936.563
FR Baseline 22.519.483 22.236.890 21.992.622 21.841.293 21.728.915 21.652.888 21.611.120 21.601.835 21.621.378 21.667.603 21.737.856 21.828.238 21.936.422 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 22.519.483 22.236.890 21.909.580 21.583.756 21.196.362 20.851.468 20.558.353 20.319.816 20.135.538 20.002.837 19.920.313 19.885.897 19.898.318 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 22.519.483 22.236.890 21.874.696 21.458.490 20.925.372 20.411.633 19.952.936 19.552.363 19.211.839 18.928.713 18.703.148 18.534.597 18.423.029 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 22.519.483 22.236.890 21.933.940 21.648.387 21.315.727 21.014.113 20.760.267 20.555.813 20.400.841 20.293.358 20.232.585 20.216.842 20.245.184
GR Baseline 7.379.355 7.299.252 7.223.129 7.228.441 7.235.709 7.245.463 7.258.252 7.273.505 7.290.299 7.308.422 7.327.050 7.346.021 7.364.845 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.379.355 7.299.252 7.216.650 7.199.068 7.169.817 7.147.116 7.131.784 7.123.462 7.121.237 7.124.412 7.131.812 7.143.219 7.158.045 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.379.355 7.299.252 7.212.339 7.180.664 7.128.693 7.081.602 7.041.922 7.009.430 6.983.370 6.962.760 6.946.426 6.934.213 6.925.519 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.379.355 7.299.252 7.219.524 7.210.537 7.193.359 7.181.604 7.176.605 7.177.912 7.184.694 7.196.422 7.212.062 7.231.349 7.253.840
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 2.411.586 2.448.032 2.491.541 2.509.125 2.525.722 2.542.078 2.557.433 2.571.511 2.584.179 2.596.507 2.610.878 2.624.179 2.641.881 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.411.586 2.448.032 2.484.749 2.491.095 2.488.770 2.483.925 2.475.460 2.463.109 2.447.414 2.430.572 2.416.699 2.402.036 2.396.820 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.411.586 2.448.032 2.482.248 2.483.126 2.471.688 2.455.137 2.433.366 2.405.793 2.372.949 2.336.974 2.302.284 2.264.773 2.236.659 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.411.586 2.448.032 2.486.601 2.495.197 2.496.740 2.495.597 2.491.290 2.483.467 2.472.541 2.460.362 2.450.689 2.440.163 2.438.047
IE Baseline 2.637.025 2.618.581 2.602.647 2.609.195 2.619.810 2.634.616 2.653.825 2.677.553 2.705.589 2.737.984 2.774.672 2.815.648 2.860.859 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.637.025 2.618.581 2.604.119 2.605.834 2.601.935 2.605.231 2.615.605 2.633.016 2.656.801 2.686.649 2.722.106 2.763.009 2.809.153 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.637.025 2.618.581 2.600.185 2.592.014 2.572.418 2.558.496 2.551.828 2.552.473 2.559.948 2.573.826 2.593.662 2.619.399 2.650.892 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.637.025 2.618.581 2.606.949 2.614.491 2.618.645 2.628.783 2.645.475 2.668.652 2.697.745 2.732.529 2.772.610 2.817.866 2.868.124
IT Baseline 41.834.257 41.437.343 41.098.366 40.706.944 40.364.717 40.069.980 39.815.369 39.597.000 39.413.304 39.259.615 39.133.691 39.030.352 38.948.613 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 41.834.257 41.437.343 40.961.496 40.315.926 39.592.651 38.937.488 38.346.894 37.819.931 37.356.735 36.948.948 36.594.556 36.289.853 36.034.631 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 41.834.257 41.437.343 40.907.993 40.145.024 39.241.919 38.390.045 37.610.593 36.901.442 36.263.707 35.686.685 35.168.733 34.706.320 34.299.445 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 41.834.257 41.437.343 40.999.657 40.413.202 39.772.306 39.184.778 38.656.348 38.184.611 37.770.707 37.407.253 37.093.310 36.825.446 36.603.952
LU Baseline 141.743 139.032 137.204 135.765 135.031 134.834 135.022 135.472 136.075 136.761 137.489 138.224 138.960 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 141.743 139.032 136.914 134.466 131.553 129.473 128.121 127.435 127.317 127.665 128.388 129.380 130.552 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 141.743 139.032 136.466 133.022 128.599 124.923 122.135 120.209 119.089 118.671 118.846 119.473 120.409 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 141.743 139.032 137.228 135.299 133.080 131.533 130.631 130.290 130.418 130.927 131.747 132.797 134.006
NL Baseline 8.265.760 8.226.633 8.203.349 8.180.266 8.160.766 8.141.319 8.123.800 8.112.757 8.113.916 8.131.829 8.167.749 8.219.491 8.283.987 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.265.760 8.226.633 8.180.424 8.108.389 8.007.185 7.905.430 7.807.094 7.719.911 7.652.757 7.611.292 7.597.116 7.607.937 7.640.687 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.265.760 8.226.633 8.169.292 8.072.388 7.930.809 7.781.921 7.633.027 7.492.336 7.370.331 7.273.902 7.206.180 7.165.899 7.150.766 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.265.760 8.226.633 8.188.232 8.130.210 8.050.380 7.968.974 7.890.726 7.822.410 7.772.406 7.746.171 7.745.547 7.768.572 7.812.368
PL Baseline 6.269.730 6.369.954 6.477.120 6.554.917 6.642.348 6.739.185 6.841.839 6.946.127 7.049.974 7.155.715 7.268.825 7.382.715 7.511.050 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.269.730 6.369.954 6.456.040 6.496.460 6.525.393 6.559.716 6.594.808 6.624.631 6.646.496 6.663.096 6.681.366 6.692.004 6.718.910 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.269.730 6.369.954 6.448.189 6.468.517 6.465.606 6.460.986 6.455.210 6.439.997 6.411.343 6.370.714 6.324.989 6.264.134 6.216.681 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.269.730 6.369.954 6.461.601 6.508.394 6.546.864 6.589.018 6.633.113 6.672.921 6.705.421 6.732.434 6.760.084 6.779.837 6.813.313
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 7.252.533 7.112.677 6.963.492 6.888.490 6.812.043 6.738.641 6.673.972 6.623.959 6.592.148 6.581.746 6.591.964 6.619.240 6.658.300 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.252.533 7.112.677 6.944.345 6.819.784 6.666.564 6.519.270 6.385.653 6.274.156 6.190.198 6.136.213 6.110.318 6.107.137 6.119.907 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.252.533 7.112.677 6.937.022 6.791.735 6.604.081 6.417.806 6.244.965 6.095.322 5.975.963 5.889.568 5.834.434 5.804.647 5.792.547 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.252.533 7.112.677 6.949.895 6.838.923 6.705.303 6.575.107 6.456.895 6.358.566 6.285.572 6.240.680 6.222.527 6.226.393 6.246.014
SE Baseline 2.887.932 2.848.703 2.817.820 2.794.751 2.780.225 2.775.539 2.780.309 2.791.342 2.803.984 2.814.055 2.820.028 2.822.574 2.824.385 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.887.932 2.848.703 2.812.075 2.775.784 2.740.040 2.717.981 2.708.962 2.708.668 2.710.919 2.710.619 2.706.455 2.699.943 2.694.686 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.887.932 2.848.703 2.807.433 2.760.866 2.710.340 2.673.813 2.652.744 2.642.259 2.634.898 2.623.950 2.607.197 2.585.930 2.564.211 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.887.932 2.848.703 2.815.211 2.783.859 2.754.347 2.736.934 2.731.805 2.734.991 2.740.887 2.744.665 2.744.972 2.743.055 2.742.215
SI Baseline 543.197 545.016 548.232 553.285 559.372 566.615 574.965 584.326 594.814 606.310 618.903 632.502 646.999 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 543.197 545.017 546.123 546.713 545.956 546.317 547.922 550.775 555.214 561.111 568.515 577.338 587.487 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 543.197 545.017 545.312 543.800 539.656 536.077 533.724 532.588 533.077 535.015 538.419 543.187 549.213 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 543.197 545.017 546.704 548.291 548.926 550.460 553.210 557.154 562.599 569.424 577.710 587.392 598.396
UK Baseline 25.981.856 25.763.774 25.599.465 25.491.302 25.429.231 25.408.716 25.427.211 25.482.866 25.570.653 25.689.174 25.836.115 26.007.168 26.200.974 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 25.981.856 25.763.774 25.529.215 25.258.930 24.928.163 24.660.550 24.457.239 24.320.336 24.247.081 24.235.231 24.283.004 24.386.710 24.544.505 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 25.981.856 25.763.774 25.485.521 25.110.573 24.612.679 24.153.943 23.760.561 23.436.139 23.181.043 22.993.067 22.872.918 22.819.072 22.831.393 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 25.981.856 25.763.774 25.560.100 25.341.166 25.081.934 24.871.584 24.720.353 24.629.370 24.596.718 24.620.559 24.699.679 24.830.726 25.012.295
CO2 of medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 324.559.224 337.881.190 351.847.728 367.228.920 383.145.686 400.019.994 402.818.965 406.020.909 408.099.626 409.611.844 410.114.301 408.976.096 406.840.940 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 324.559.224 337.881.308 351.847.850 367.229.046 383.145.817 400.020.133 402.819.106 406.021.049 408.099.766 409.611.981 410.114.418 408.976.210 406.841.050 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 324.559.224 337.881.451 351.847.999 367.229.201 383.145.976 400.020.304 402.819.277 406.021.221 408.099.936 409.612.149 410.114.560 408.976.348 406.841.185 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 324.559.224 337.881.451 351.847.999 367.229.201 383.145.976 400.020.304 402.819.277 406.021.221 408.099.936 409.612.149 410.114.560 408.976.348 406.841.185
EU15 Baseline 282.312.050 293.929.033 306.248.247 319.706.164 333.793.232 348.876.453 351.086.646 353.730.855 355.559.542 356.823.938 357.241.876 356.277.863 354.452.571 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 282.312.050 293.929.151 306.248.369 319.706.290 333.793.363 348.876.593 351.086.786 353.730.996 355.559.681 356.824.076 357.241.993 356.277.976 354.452.681 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 282.312.050 293.929.151 306.248.369 319.706.290 333.793.363 348.876.593 351.086.786 353.730.996 355.559.681 356.824.076 357.241.993 356.277.976 354.452.681 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 282.312.050 293.929.151 306.248.369 319.706.290 333.793.363 348.876.593 351.086.786 353.730.996 355.559.681 356.824.076 357.241.993 356.277.976 354.452.681
EU10 Baseline 42.247.174 43.952.156 45.599.481 47.522.756 49.352.454 51.143.541 51.732.320 52.290.053 52.540.085 52.787.905 52.872.425 52.698.233 52.388.369 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 42.247.174 43.952.156 45.599.481 47.522.756 49.352.454 51.143.541 51.732.320 52.290.053 52.540.085 52.787.905 52.872.425 52.698.233 52.388.369 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 42.247.174 43.952.300 45.599.630 47.522.911 49.352.613 51.143.711 51.732.491 52.290.225 52.540.255 52.788.073 52.872.567 52.698.372 52.388.504 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 42.247.174 43.952.300 45.599.630 47.522.911 49.352.613 51.143.711 51.732.491 52.290.225 52.540.255 52.788.073 52.872.567 52.698.372 52.388.504
AT Baseline 6.434.615 6.670.184 6.911.176 7.159.201 7.404.319 7.657.846 7.669.119 7.690.800 7.699.224 7.692.321 7.664.781 7.629.928 7.572.674 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.434.615 6.670.184 6.911.176 7.159.201 7.404.319 7.657.846 7.669.119 7.690.800 7.699.224 7.692.321 7.664.781 7.629.928 7.572.674 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.434.615 6.670.184 6.911.176 7.159.201 7.404.319 7.657.846 7.669.119 7.690.800 7.699.224 7.692.321 7.664.781 7.629.928 7.572.674 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.434.615 6.670.184 6.911.176 7.159.201 7.404.319 7.657.846 7.669.119 7.690.800 7.699.224 7.692.321 7.664.781 7.629.928 7.572.674
BE Baseline 10.824.353 11.229.139 11.566.776 12.104.358 12.550.654 12.972.464 13.175.617 13.337.386 13.304.177 13.325.575 13.292.255 13.260.282 13.196.250 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.824.353 11.229.257 11.566.898 12.104.485 12.550.785 12.972.604 13.175.757 13.337.527 13.304.316 13.325.713 13.292.371 13.260.396 13.196.360 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.824.353 11.229.257 11.566.898 12.104.485 12.550.785 12.972.604 13.175.757 13.337.527 13.304.316 13.325.713 13.292.371 13.260.396 13.196.360 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.824.353 11.229.257 11.566.898 12.104.485 12.550.785 12.972.604 13.175.757 13.337.527 13.304.316 13.325.713 13.292.371 13.260.396 13.196.360
CZ Baseline 2.521.586 2.602.059 2.684.995 2.773.403 2.861.538 2.950.498 3.023.885 3.097.695 3.164.800 3.160.948 3.195.889 3.242.772 3.293.818 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.521.586 2.602.059 2.684.995 2.773.403 2.861.538 2.950.498 3.023.885 3.097.695 3.164.800 3.160.948 3.195.889 3.242.772 3.293.818 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.521.586 2.602.059 2.684.995 2.773.403 2.861.538 2.950.498 3.023.885 3.097.695 3.164.800 3.160.948 3.195.889 3.242.772 3.293.818 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.521.586 2.602.059 2.684.995 2.773.403 2.861.538 2.950.498 3.023.885 3.097.695 3.164.800 3.160.948 3.195.889 3.242.772 3.293.818
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 89.926.127 90.155.566 90.354.972 90.530.771 90.641.588 90.670.048 90.753.898 90.914.162 90.898.768 90.720.666 90.318.202 90.190.883 89.812.295 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 89.926.127 90.155.566 90.354.972 90.530.771 90.641.588 90.670.048 90.753.898 90.914.162 90.898.768 90.720.666 90.318.202 90.190.883 89.812.295 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 89.926.127 90.155.566 90.354.972 90.530.771 90.641.588 90.670.048 90.753.898 90.914.162 90.898.768 90.720.666 90.318.202 90.190.883 89.812.295 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 89.926.127 90.155.566 90.354.972 90.530.771 90.641.588 90.670.048 90.753.898 90.914.162 90.898.768 90.720.666 90.318.202 90.190.883 89.812.295
DK Baseline 3.537.260 3.892.487 4.274.101 4.684.861 5.125.069 5.592.381 5.616.382 5.643.896 5.663.993 5.675.755 5.672.513 5.619.259 5.551.647 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.537.260 3.892.487 4.274.101 4.684.861 5.125.069 5.592.381 5.616.382 5.643.896 5.663.993 5.675.755 5.672.513 5.619.259 5.551.647 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.537.260 3.892.487 4.274.101 4.684.861 5.125.069 5.592.381 5.616.382 5.643.896 5.663.993 5.675.755 5.672.513 5.619.259 5.551.647 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.537.260 3.892.487 4.274.101 4.684.861 5.125.069 5.592.381 5.616.382 5.643.896 5.663.993 5.675.755 5.672.513 5.619.259 5.551.647
ES Baseline 16.795.988 18.714.541 20.814.648 23.129.708 25.626.141 28.406.094 29.125.077 29.912.711 30.669.281 31.388.910 32.064.984 32.204.604 32.302.504 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16.795.988 18.714.541 20.814.648 23.129.708 25.626.141 28.406.094 29.125.077 29.912.711 30.669.281 31.388.910 32.064.984 32.204.604 32.302.504 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16.795.988 18.714.541 20.814.648 23.129.708 25.626.141 28.406.094 29.125.077 29.912.711 30.669.281 31.388.910 32.064.984 32.204.604 32.302.504 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16.795.988 18.714.541 20.814.648 23.129.708 25.626.141 28.406.094 29.125.077 29.912.711 30.669.281 31.388.910 32.064.984 32.204.604 32.302.504
FI Baseline 2.835.762 3.520.282 4.349.913 5.357.573 6.574.637 8.036.794 8.119.325 8.205.750 8.286.249 8.358.880 8.417.687 8.392.611 8.356.589 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.835.762 3.520.282 4.349.913 5.357.573 6.574.637 8.036.794 8.119.325 8.205.750 8.286.249 8.358.880 8.417.687 8.392.611 8.356.589 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.835.762 3.520.282 4.349.913 5.357.573 6.574.637 8.036.794 8.119.325 8.205.750 8.286.249 8.358.880 8.417.687 8.392.611 8.356.589 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.835.762 3.520.282 4.349.913 5.357.573 6.574.637 8.036.794 8.119.325 8.205.750 8.286.249 8.358.880 8.417.687 8.392.611 8.356.589
FR Baseline 46.124.770 47.435.532 48.782.950 50.189.340 51.573.870 53.041.274 53.321.703 53.715.899 53.999.604 54.176.956 54.234.619 53.806.971 53.285.600 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 46.124.770 47.435.532 48.782.950 50.189.340 51.573.870 53.041.274 53.321.703 53.715.899 53.999.604 54.176.956 54.234.619 53.806.971 53.285.600 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 46.124.770 47.435.532 48.782.950 50.189.340 51.573.870 53.041.274 53.321.703 53.715.899 53.999.604 54.176.956 54.234.619 53.806.971 53.285.600 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 46.124.770 47.435.532 48.782.950 50.189.340 51.573.870 53.041.274 53.321.703 53.715.899 53.999.604 54.176.956 54.234.619 53.806.971 53.285.600
GR Baseline 1.626.593 1.783.956 1.954.549 2.139.950 2.340.137 2.556.377 2.624.968 2.695.292 2.763.829 2.830.233 2.893.084 2.868.369 2.843.356 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.626.593 1.783.956 1.954.549 2.139.950 2.340.137 2.556.377 2.624.968 2.695.292 2.763.829 2.830.233 2.893.084 2.868.369 2.843.356 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.626.593 1.783.956 1.954.549 2.139.950 2.340.137 2.556.377 2.624.968 2.695.292 2.763.829 2.830.233 2.893.084 2.868.369 2.843.356 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.626.593 1.783.956 1.954.549 2.139.950 2.340.137 2.556.377 2.624.968 2.695.292 2.763.829 2.830.233 2.893.084 2.868.369 2.843.356
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 2.065.618 2.048.497 2.036.090 2.022.759 2.006.714 1.990.895 2.010.244 2.031.920 1.988.689 2.006.961 2.029.872 2.051.392 2.076.203 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.065.618 2.048.497 2.036.090 2.022.759 2.006.714 1.990.895 2.010.244 2.031.920 1.988.689 2.006.961 2.029.872 2.051.392 2.076.203 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.065.618 2.048.497 2.036.090 2.022.759 2.006.714 1.990.895 2.010.244 2.031.920 1.988.689 2.006.961 2.029.872 2.051.392 2.076.203 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.065.618 2.048.497 2.036.090 2.022.759 2.006.714 1.990.895 2.010.244 2.031.920 1.988.689 2.006.961 2.029.872 2.051.392 2.076.203
IE Baseline 967.048 1.143.572 1.344.553 1.574.659 1.837.575 2.136.733 2.200.947 2.270.862 2.336.665 2.398.273 2.452.695 2.466.680 2.468.867 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 967.048 1.143.572 1.344.553 1.574.659 1.837.575 2.136.733 2.200.947 2.270.862 2.336.665 2.398.273 2.452.695 2.466.680 2.468.867 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 967.048 1.143.572 1.344.553 1.574.659 1.837.575 2.136.733 2.200.947 2.270.862 2.336.665 2.398.273 2.452.695 2.466.680 2.468.867 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 967.048 1.143.572 1.344.553 1.574.659 1.837.575 2.136.733 2.200.947 2.270.862 2.336.665 2.398.273 2.452.695 2.466.680 2.468.867
IT Baseline 31.440.518 35.117.584 39.145.106 43.573.103 48.356.139 53.595.992 53.485.571 53.465.551 53.373.091 53.197.634 52.924.957 52.849.277 52.665.580 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 31.440.518 35.117.584 39.145.106 43.573.103 48.356.139 53.595.992 53.485.571 53.465.551 53.373.091 53.197.634 52.924.957 52.849.277 52.665.580 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 31.440.518 35.117.584 39.145.106 43.573.103 48.356.139 53.595.992 53.485.571 53.465.551 53.373.091 53.197.634 52.924.957 52.849.277 52.665.580 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 31.440.518 35.117.584 39.145.106 43.573.103 48.356.139 53.595.992 53.485.571 53.465.551 53.373.091 53.197.634 52.924.957 52.849.277 52.665.580
LU Baseline 446.173 480.408 515.378 551.539 587.766 625.384 623.479 623.577 621.669 618.084 612.199 604.581 595.697 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 446.173 480.408 515.378 551.539 587.766 625.384 623.479 623.577 621.669 618.084 612.199 604.581 595.697 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 446.173 480.408 515.378 551.539 587.766 625.384 623.479 623.577 621.669 618.084 612.199 604.581 595.697 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 446.173 480.408 515.378 551.539 587.766 625.384 623.479 623.577 621.669 618.084 612.199 604.581 595.697
NL Baseline 11.888.268 12.373.244 12.861.696 13.358.060 13.850.808 14.335.952 14.442.029 14.561.523 14.643.958 14.692.394 14.700.499 14.703.375 14.662.991 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.888.268 12.373.244 12.861.696 13.358.060 13.850.808 14.335.952 14.442.029 14.561.523 14.643.958 14.692.394 14.700.499 14.703.375 14.662.991 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.888.268 12.373.244 12.861.696 13.358.060 13.850.808 14.335.952 14.442.029 14.561.523 14.643.958 14.692.394 14.700.499 14.703.375 14.662.991 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.888.268 12.373.244 12.861.696 13.358.060 13.850.808 14.335.952 14.442.029 14.561.523 14.643.958 14.692.394 14.700.499 14.703.375 14.662.991
PL Baseline 5.362.415 5.855.332 6.400.446 7.010.040 7.672.783 8.394.530 8.682.758 8.999.395 8.874.865 9.118.957 9.407.051 9.563.630 9.725.156 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.362.415 5.855.332 6.400.446 7.010.040 7.672.783 8.394.530 8.682.758 8.999.395 8.874.865 9.118.957 9.407.051 9.563.630 9.725.156 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.362.415 5.855.332 6.400.446 7.010.040 7.672.783 8.394.530 8.682.758 8.999.395 8.874.865 9.118.957 9.407.051 9.563.630 9.725.156 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.362.415 5.855.332 6.400.446 7.010.040 7.672.783 8.394.530 8.682.758 8.999.395 8.874.865 9.118.957 9.407.051 9.563.630 9.725.156
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 4.955.219 5.183.236 5.417.890 5.661.278 5.907.400 6.164.847 6.212.143 6.279.152 6.334.823 6.378.437 6.407.301 6.310.467 6.198.919 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.955.219 5.183.236 5.417.890 5.661.278 5.907.400 6.164.847 6.212.143 6.279.152 6.334.823 6.378.437 6.407.301 6.310.467 6.198.919 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.955.219 5.183.236 5.417.890 5.661.278 5.907.400 6.164.847 6.212.143 6.279.152 6.334.823 6.378.437 6.407.301 6.310.467 6.198.919 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.955.219 5.183.236 5.417.890 5.661.278 5.907.400 6.164.847 6.212.143 6.279.152 6.334.823 6.378.437 6.407.301 6.310.467 6.198.919
SE Baseline 10.303.469 10.654.428 11.008.554 11.366.292 11.727.412 12.072.911 12.177.888 12.283.642 12.370.906 12.437.881 12.469.551 12.380.525 12.255.866 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.303.469 10.654.428 11.008.554 11.366.292 11.727.412 12.072.911 12.177.888 12.283.642 12.370.906 12.437.881 12.469.551 12.380.525 12.255.866 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.303.469 10.654.428 11.008.554 11.366.292 11.727.412 12.072.911 12.177.888 12.283.642 12.370.906 12.437.881 12.469.551 12.380.525 12.255.866 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.303.469 10.654.428 11.008.554 11.366.292 11.727.412 12.072.911 12.177.888 12.283.642 12.370.906 12.437.881 12.469.551 12.380.525 12.255.866
SI Baseline 563.150 560.936 558.551 555.449 552.317 548.081 555.611 564.047 571.526 577.821 582.701 589.946 595.881 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 563.150 560.937 558.552 555.449 552.318 548.082 555.612 564.048 571.527 577.821 582.701 589.947 595.882 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 563.150 560.937 558.552 555.449 552.318 548.082 555.612 564.048 571.527 577.821 582.701 589.947 595.882 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 563.150 560.937 558.552 555.449 552.318 548.082 555.612 564.048 571.527 577.821 582.701 589.947 595.882
UK Baseline 44.205.887 45.574.873 46.945.983 48.325.470 49.689.716 51.011.356 51.538.499 52.130.653 52.593.305 52.931.940 53.116.552 52.990.049 52.683.737 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 44.205.887 45.574.873 46.945.983 48.325.470 49.689.716 51.011.356 51.538.499 52.130.653 52.593.305 52.931.940 53.116.552 52.990.049 52.683.737 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 44.205.887 45.574.873 46.945.983 48.325.470 49.689.716 51.011.356 51.538.499 52.130.653 52.593.305 52.931.940 53.116.552 52.990.049 52.683.737 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 44.205.887 45.574.873 46.945.983 48.325.470 49.689.716 51.011.356 51.538.499 52.130.653 52.593.305 52.931.940 53.116.552 52.990.049 52.683.737
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 404.117.908 400.842.532 398.069.287 395.248.036 393.032.160 391.286.018 390.017.877 389.243.436 389.047.118 389.284.200 390.051.055 391.324.303 393.086.997 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 404.118.015 400.842.634 397.129.708 392.287.779 386.749.343 381.918.078 377.909.751 374.786.148 372.593.152 371.148.884 370.507.822 370.621.994 371.461.478 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 404.118.144 400.842.758 397.086.168 392.054.535 386.130.784 380.877.445 376.484.911 373.025.958 370.545.734 368.852.980 367.988.318 367.902.755 368.569.129 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 404.118.144 400.842.758 397.815.763 394.299.862 390.709.410 387.795.709 385.657.574 384.331.746 383.866.360 384.073.408 384.998.120 386.589.235 388.817.565
EU15 Baseline 352.125.275 349.330.090 346.940.116 344.658.357 342.833.659 341.404.337 340.370.156 339.747.868 339.573.298 339.796.198 340.465.526 341.562.858 343.078.851 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 352.125.382 349.330.192 346.000.537 341.698.100 336.550.842 332.036.396 328.262.031 325.290.580 323.119.331 321.660.882 320.922.293 320.860.549 321.453.332 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 352.125.382 349.330.192 346.090.511 341.871.212 336.804.733 332.283.800 328.479.128 325.451.041 323.204.926 321.658.827 320.827.407 320.672.455 321.174.372 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 352.125.382 349.330.192 346.805.667 344.088.028 341.340.070 339.157.032 337.609.384 336.722.753 336.504.380 336.873.998 337.847.739 339.384.772 341.463.786
EU10 Baseline 51.992.633 51.512.442 51.129.171 50.589.679 50.198.501 49.881.681 49.647.721 49.495.568 49.473.821 49.488.002 49.585.529 49.761.445 50.008.146 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 51.992.633 51.512.442 51.129.171 50.589.679 50.198.501 49.881.681 49.647.721 49.495.568 49.473.821 49.488.002 49.585.529 49.761.445 50.008.146 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 51.992.763 51.512.566 50.995.657 50.183.323 49.326.051 48.593.645 48.005.783 47.574.917 47.340.807 47.194.153 47.160.911 47.230.300 47.394.757 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 51.992.763 51.512.566 51.010.096 50.211.835 49.369.339 48.638.677 48.048.190 47.608.993 47.361.980 47.199.410 47.150.381 47.204.464 47.353.779
AT Baseline 7.497.908 7.407.968 7.324.647 7.226.884 7.143.573 7.077.513 7.029.019 6.998.515 6.984.078 6.984.046 6.996.768 7.021.029 7.055.082 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.497.908 7.407.968 7.301.317 7.165.359 7.022.341 6.902.648 6.809.092 6.741.501 6.695.753 6.668.715 6.657.764 6.660.931 6.676.494 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.497.908 7.407.968 7.305.466 7.174.845 7.038.710 6.922.825 6.832.137 6.766.522 6.722.232 6.696.378 6.686.534 6.690.823 6.707.518 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.497.908 7.407.968 7.320.359 7.220.793 7.132.879 7.065.674 7.021.027 6.998.412 6.994.625 7.007.203 7.034.014 7.073.420 7.123.749
BE Baseline 13.112.130 13.013.577 12.984.969 12.790.919 12.698.917 12.635.399 12.596.495 12.575.483 12.609.700 12.621.406 12.649.257 12.691.593 12.746.334 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.112.236 13.013.679 12.924.524 12.644.805 12.416.579 12.226.531 12.077.606 11.974.005 11.952.883 11.930.897 11.934.335 11.959.525 12.004.911 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.112.236 13.013.679 12.936.235 12.674.288 12.471.872 12.303.680 12.174.081 12.085.541 12.075.291 12.060.865 12.070.851 12.101.966 12.152.447 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.112.236 13.013.679 12.968.777 12.770.006 12.665.796 12.595.927 12.559.334 12.553.538 12.615.466 12.662.160 12.727.701 12.809.271 12.904.607
CZ Baseline 3.347.245 3.402.108 3.466.013 3.498.072 3.533.295 3.571.896 3.616.742 3.668.718 3.727.271 3.791.360 3.859.800 3.932.113 4.004.925 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.347.245 3.402.108 3.451.746 3.459.285 3.456.507 3.456.169 3.462.217 3.476.453 3.498.541 3.526.852 3.559.003 3.594.733 3.629.376 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.347.245 3.402.108 3.453.245 3.462.302 3.461.630 3.462.892 3.470.357 3.485.850 3.509.191 3.538.922 3.572.824 3.610.637 3.647.912 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.347.245 3.402.108 3.459.946 3.481.001 3.499.087 3.519.932 3.547.118 3.582.018 3.624.336 3.672.954 3.726.383 3.784.532 3.843.872
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 89.335.202 88.776.858 88.346.395 87.840.719 87.458.705 87.192.696 87.037.242 86.993.317 87.048.972 87.206.424 87.462.118 87.808.629 88.248.293 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 89.335.202 88.776.858 88.154.505 87.216.089 86.074.390 85.116.933 84.357.477 83.800.127 83.420.004 83.209.131 83.155.902 83.248.712 83.487.337 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 89.335.202 88.776.858 88.163.370 87.212.448 86.037.739 85.019.980 84.196.358 83.570.961 83.121.348 82.840.001 82.716.564 82.740.598 82.912.631 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 89.335.202 88.776.858 88.361.535 87.813.371 87.254.287 86.856.233 86.629.179 86.571.737 86.663.260 86.899.567 87.270.267 87.764.063 88.380.590
DK Baseline 5.477.094 5.394.672 5.314.135 5.214.368 5.103.337 4.983.223 4.859.287 4.741.040 4.637.679 4.555.807 4.497.192 4.459.380 4.437.276 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.477.094 5.394.672 5.312.629 5.196.316 5.049.087 4.899.796 4.755.200 4.625.565 4.518.120 4.436.448 4.379.590 4.343.333 4.321.880 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.477.094 5.394.672 5.311.718 5.192.922 5.041.257 4.886.366 4.735.662 4.599.680 4.486.053 4.398.759 4.337.131 4.297.039 4.272.557 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.477.094 5.394.672 5.323.122 5.227.354 5.113.444 4.997.835 4.886.049 4.786.453 4.705.093 4.645.312 4.606.401 4.585.055 4.576.780
ES Baseline 32.360.711 32.375.316 32.402.334 32.526.092 32.664.386 32.817.672 32.988.080 33.178.759 33.389.463 33.624.281 33.884.781 34.172.734 34.491.125 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 32.360.711 32.375.316 32.311.457 32.239.815 32.073.622 31.925.617 31.809.593 31.734.117 31.698.108 31.706.134 31.760.351 31.863.012 32.017.409 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 32.360.711 32.375.316 32.323.174 32.270.146 32.129.426 32.001.279 31.902.858 31.842.234 31.818.740 31.837.368 31.900.620 32.011.085 32.172.386 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 32.360.711 32.375.316 32.368.840 32.420.112 32.444.984 32.488.809 32.561.590 32.669.110 32.811.181 32.992.520 33.215.066 33.480.691 33.792.434
FI Baseline 8.312.848 8.255.578 8.189.148 8.151.530 8.090.255 8.000.308 7.880.012 7.734.233 7.577.928 7.433.476 7.322.000 7.257.441 7.243.275 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.312.848 8.255.578 8.183.225 8.118.753 8.003.002 7.862.542 7.700.467 7.526.886 7.359.240 7.218.326 7.119.599 7.070.243 7.068.806 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.312.848 8.255.578 8.183.020 8.117.420 7.998.987 7.854.238 7.686.308 7.505.010 7.327.967 7.176.522 7.067.084 7.007.906 6.998.386 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.312.848 8.255.578 8.193.446 8.155.771 8.085.958 7.996.306 7.889.280 7.772.792 7.661.356 7.572.524 7.519.182 7.507.335 7.535.779
FR Baseline 52.696.976 52.050.702 51.488.092 51.099.413 50.799.752 50.586.011 50.454.128 50.402.157 50.423.495 50.514.371 50.669.539 50.881.490 51.145.939 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 52.696.976 52.050.702 51.287.053 50.513.105 49.627.136 48.863.262 48.237.282 47.753.075 47.396.813 47.162.123 47.041.498 47.025.785 47.109.403 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 52.696.976 52.050.702 51.319.822 50.598.399 49.785.714 49.083.216 48.512.765 48.077.671 47.765.316 47.569.945 47.484.565 47.500.340 47.611.955 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 52.696.976 52.050.702 51.425.310 50.928.891 50.460.674 50.100.593 49.855.978 49.725.823 49.699.512 49.771.305 49.933.981 50.178.069 50.498.099
GR Baseline 2.818.847 2.793.800 2.769.705 2.776.833 2.783.987 2.791.390 2.799.276 2.807.486 2.815.741 2.823.989 2.831.882 2.839.349 2.846.153 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.818.847 2.793.800 2.768.213 2.767.403 2.761.008 2.755.707 2.752.092 2.750.102 2.749.262 2.749.417 2.750.099 2.751.241 2.752.619 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.818.847 2.793.800 2.768.273 2.767.633 2.761.451 2.756.454 2.753.198 2.751.612 2.751.173 2.751.749 2.752.906 2.754.483 2.756.296 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.818.847 2.793.800 2.770.030 2.775.478 2.778.678 2.783.000 2.788.869 2.796.141 2.804.405 2.813.602 2.823.342 2.833.516 2.843.989
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 2.103.709 2.133.302 2.169.060 2.183.793 2.199.193 2.215.507 2.231.729 2.247.410 2.261.667 2.274.724 2.287.801 2.298.082 2.309.810 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.103.709 2.133.302 2.161.689 2.164.841 2.161.800 2.159.240 2.155.751 2.151.042 2.144.842 2.138.547 2.134.778 2.129.959 2.131.250 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.103.709 2.133.302 2.161.739 2.164.370 2.160.427 2.156.743 2.152.155 2.146.314 2.138.921 2.131.347 2.126.213 2.119.982 2.119.781 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.103.709 2.133.302 2.165.842 2.175.400 2.182.234 2.190.007 2.197.751 2.205.271 2.212.295 2.220.028 2.230.750 2.241.472 2.257.632
IE Baseline 2.465.818 2.457.333 2.448.813 2.458.001 2.469.231 2.483.000 2.499.851 2.520.297 2.544.454 2.572.657 2.605.049 2.641.813 2.683.033 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.465.818 2.457.333 2.447.585 2.446.334 2.436.674 2.431.580 2.432.457 2.439.869 2.453.456 2.473.125 2.498.634 2.529.895 2.566.814 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.465.818 2.457.333 2.447.468 2.445.284 2.433.722 2.426.069 2.424.322 2.429.042 2.439.899 2.456.836 2.479.652 2.508.286 2.542.661 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.465.818 2.457.333 2.452.943 2.463.925 2.472.934 2.486.252 2.504.915 2.529.242 2.558.932 2.593.987 2.634.211 2.679.532 2.729.877
IT Baseline 52.387.540 52.016.256 51.659.439 51.173.126 50.706.749 50.267.847 49.855.772 49.475.333 49.132.591 48.829.347 48.568.526 48.349.007 48.173.258 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 52.387.540 52.016.256 51.512.056 50.745.156 49.841.469 48.987.170 48.197.419 47.483.928 46.848.436 46.290.804 45.812.019 45.408.243 45.080.751 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 52.387.540 52.016.256 51.530.574 50.789.415 49.922.222 49.097.132 48.332.463 47.639.616 47.021.135 46.477.716 46.010.858 45.617.322 45.298.748 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 52.387.540 52.016.256 51.612.692 51.037.841 50.429.269 49.864.989 49.353.555 48.902.126 48.514.136 48.190.085 47.930.823 47.732.939 47.597.403
LU Baseline 586.812 578.080 572.383565.282 560.746 558.460 558.076 559.242 561.544 564.667 568.386 572.473 576.807 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 586.812 578.080 569.182 556.901 543.121 532.290 524.910 520.825 519.497 520.435 523.152 527.110 531.884 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 586.812 578.080 569.794 558.187 545.182 534.591 527.321 523.195 521.734 522.493 525.032 528.845 533.517 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 586.812 578.080 572.197 565.625 560.384 557.459 556.978 558.548 561.633 565.823 570.810 576.300 582.128
NL Baseline 14.589.719 14.482.032 14.377.561 14.258.165 14.160.018 14.090.969 14.055.795 14.054.963 14.085.197 14.142.421 14.224.830 14.331.176 14.459.133 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.589.719 14.482.032 14.338.855 14.129.684 13.881.903 13.679.675 13.529.582 13.431.933 13.379.052 13.363.487 13.381.479 13.431.347 13.511.672 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.589.719 14.482.032 14.341.052 14.132.066 13.882.162 13.674.085 13.518.023 13.414.692 13.356.757 13.336.629 13.350.191 13.395.438 13.470.783 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.589.719 14.482.032 14.375.489 14.238.949 14.100.445 14.001.672 13.948.465 13.940.392 13.971.769 14.037.320 14.134.410 14.261.473 14.416.314
PL Baseline 9.886.972 10.047.532 10.231.129 10.363.118 10.499.283 10.644.464 10.799.468 10.965.775 11.141.188 11.325.952 11.524.629 11.724.436 11.941.558 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.886.972 10.047.532 10.191.191 10.249.886 10.270.361 10.293.417 10.320.360 10.354.391 10.393.181 10.436.530 10.489.284 10.532.900 10.598.400 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.886.972 10.047.532 10.190.953 10.246.516 10.261.152 10.276.454 10.295.125 10.320.553 10.350.765 10.385.484 10.429.312 10.463.683 10.519.520 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.886.972 10.047.532 10.210.791 10.304.274 10.379.053 10.458.831 10.545.261 10.640.787 10.743.456 10.853.407 10.975.483 11.094.440 11.234.355
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 6.072.039 5.930.800 5.791.289 5.731.988 5.688.505 5.663.260 5.654.727 5.659.183 5.672.775 5.694.227 5.721.953 5.755.073 5.793.315 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.072.039 5.930.800 5.772.885 5.667.452 5.554.598 5.462.279 5.390.993 5.338.299 5.300.269 5.275.659 5.262.393 5.258.640 5.263.248 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.072.039 5.930.800 5.775.530 5.675.406 5.569.911 5.484.055 5.418.893 5.371.870 5.338.975 5.318.968 5.309.781 5.309.677 5.317.637 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.072.039 5.930.800 5.784.164 5.706.227 5.634.550 5.582.125 5.548.783 5.531.397 5.526.070 5.531.552 5.546.037 5.568.300 5.597.841
SE Baseline 12.113.263 11.950.794 11.793.686 11.657.620 11.519.849 11.385.221 11.259.565 11.148.435 11.057.894 10.992.345 10.954.165 10.942.267 10.955.060 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 12.113.263 11.950.794 11.784.847 11.608.433 11.387.872 11.184.875 11.005.462 10.855.393 10.738.265 10.655.405 10.606.034 10.586.733 10.594.499 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 12.113.263 11.950.794 11.782.718 11.599.717 11.367.373 11.149.496 10.954.214 10.787.529 10.653.603 10.554.273 10.489.365 10.455.774 10.450.573 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 12.113.263 11.950.794 11.808.470 11.679.440 11.530.832 11.397.058 11.283.632 11.194.862 11.134.022 11.102.905 11.101.248 11.126.550 11.176.690
SI Baseline 600.597 604.183 608.436 613.556 619.256 626.072 634.301 644.186 655.891 669.231 683.945 699.679 716.231 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 600.597 604.184 605.840 605.515 602.715 601.418 602.131 605.293 611.313 619.912 630.506 642.553 655.776 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 600.597 604.184 605.781 605.182 601.850 599.868 599.861 602.302 607.646 615.642 625.708 637.283 650.062 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 600.597 604.184 607.315 610.081 611.972 615.304 620.520 627.952 637.877 650.058 664.076 679.516 696.184
UK Baseline 52.298.368 51.846.325 51.477.522 51.187.417 50.985.649 50.871.369 50.842.831 50.899.427 51.031.785 51.236.731 51.509.079 51.839.404 52.224.768 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 52.298.368 51.846.325 51.332.205 50.682.493 49.878.040 49.205.490 48.682.398 48.314.955 48.090.174 48.000.775 48.039.444 48.195.799 48.465.605 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 52.298.368 51.846.325 51.332.296 50.663.037 49.819.002 49.090.335 48.510.525 48.085.864 47.804.705 47.660.325 47.646.274 47.752.873 47.976.277 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 52.298.368 51.846.325 51.468.293 51.084.246 50.674.957 50.383.100 50.221.749 50.192.180 50.282.921 50.488.133 50.800.246 51.208.257 51.707.506
CO2 of small and medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 560.456.841 564.724.886 570.877.580 579.255.268 588.981.398 599.545.600 603.744.496 608.015.486 610.577.001 612.395.476 612.795.134 610.387.796 606.784.771 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 560.456.841 564.725.222 570.877.925 579.255.622 588.981.761 599.545.978 603.744.873 608.015.861 610.577.371 612.395.841 612.795.444 610.388.097 606.785.064 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 560.456.841 564.725.222 570.877.925 579.255.622 588.981.761 599.545.978 603.744.873 608.015.861 610.577.371 612.395.841 612.795.444 610.388.097 606.785.064 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 560.456.841 564.725.222 570.877.925 579.255.622 588.981.761 599.545.978 603.744.873 608.015.861 610.577.371 612.395.841 612.795.444 610.388.097 606.785.064
EU15 Baseline 490.815.245 493.892.633 498.726.568 505.475.408 513.573.705 522.856.596 526.308.806 529.864.557 532.097.967 533.520.878 533.755.479 531.718.094 528.628.301 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 490.815.245 493.892.784 498.726.723 505.475.567 513.573.869 522.856.766 526.308.976 529.864.726 532.098.134 533.521.042 533.755.619 531.718.229 528.628.433 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 490.815.245 493.892.784 498.726.723 505.475.567 513.573.869 522.856.766 526.308.976 529.864.726 532.098.134 533.521.042 533.755.619 531.718.229 528.628.433 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 490.815.245 493.892.784 498.726.723 505.475.567 513.573.869 522.856.766 526.308.976 529.864.726 532.098.134 533.521.042 533.755.619 531.718.229 528.628.433
EU10 Baseline 69.641.595 70.832.254 72.151.012 73.779.861 75.407.693 76.689.004 77.435.690 78.150.929 78.479.034 78.874.598 79.039.655 78.669.703 78.156.470 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 69.641.595 70.832.438 72.151.201 73.780.055 75.407.893 76.689.212 77.435.897 78.151.135 78.479.237 78.874.799 79.039.825 78.669.868 78.156.631 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 69.641.595 70.832.438 72.151.201 73.780.055 75.407.893 76.689.212 77.435.897 78.151.135 78.479.237 78.874.799 79.039.825 78.669.868 78.156.631 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 69.641.595 70.832.438 72.151.201 73.780.055 75.407.893 76.689.212 77.435.897 78.151.135 78.479.237 78.874.799 79.039.825 78.669.868 78.156.631
AT Baseline 10.445.691 10.300.615 10.198.231 10.136.134 10.101.260 10.101.886 10.117.699 10.136.323 10.125.397 10.092.552 10.033.119 9.965.347 9.874.150 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.445.691 10.300.615 10.198.231 10.136.134 10.101.260 10.101.886 10.117.699 10.136.322 10.125.397 10.092.552 10.033.119 9.965.347 9.874.150 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.445.691 10.300.615 10.198.231 10.136.134 10.101.260 10.101.886 10.117.699 10.136.322 10.125.397 10.092.552 10.033.119 9.965.347 9.874.150 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.445.691 10.300.615 10.198.231 10.136.134 10.101.260 10.101.886 10.117.699 10.136.322 10.125.397 10.092.552 10.033.119 9.965.347 9.874.150
BE Baseline 14.437.780 14.655.274 14.926.558 15.393.661 15.812.620 15.939.570 15.996.567 16.036.334 15.876.092 15.866.921 15.783.858 15.725.887 15.640.105 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.437.780 14.655.426 14.926.714 15.393.820 15.812.784 15.939.740 15.996.737 16.036.503 15.876.258 15.867.086 15.783.998 15.726.023 15.640.237 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.437.780 14.655.426 14.926.714 15.393.820 15.812.784 15.939.740 15.996.737 16.036.503 15.876.258 15.867.086 15.783.998 15.726.023 15.640.237 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.437.780 14.655.426 14.926.714 15.393.820 15.812.784 15.939.740 15.996.737 16.036.503 15.876.258 15.867.086 15.783.998 15.726.023 15.640.237
CZ Baseline 4.892.354 5.031.090 5.174.405 5.327.137 5.481.631 5.638.717 5.767.529 5.897.630 6.007.664 5.883.171 5.946.775 6.034.911 6.131.673 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.892.354 5.031.090 5.174.405 5.327.137 5.481.631 5.638.717 5.767.529 5.897.630 6.007.664 5.883.171 5.946.775 6.034.911 6.131.673 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.892.354 5.031.090 5.174.405 5.327.137 5.481.631 5.638.717 5.767.529 5.897.630 6.007.664 5.883.171 5.946.775 6.034.911 6.131.673 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.892.354 5.031.090 5.174.405 5.327.137 5.481.631 5.638.717 5.767.529 5.897.630 6.007.664 5.883.171 5.946.775 6.034.911 6.131.673
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 116.722.070 116.626.217 116.503.036 116.359.494 116.156.662 115.853.932 115.987.283 116.142.857 116.055.460 115.759.996 115.197.440 114.985.922 114.494.593 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 116.722.070 116.626.217 116.503.036 116.359.494 116.156.662 115.853.932 115.987.283 116.142.857 116.055.460 115.759.996 115.197.440 114.985.922 114.494.593 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 116.722.070 116.626.217 116.503.036 116.359.494 116.156.662 115.853.932 115.987.283 116.142.857 116.055.460 115.759.996 115.197.440 114.985.922 114.494.593 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 116.722.070 116.626.217 116.503.036 116.359.494 116.156.662 115.853.932 115.987.283 116.142.857 116.055.460 115.759.996 115.197.440 114.985.922 114.494.593
DK Baseline 8.593.711 8.664.204 8.778.821 8.938.890 9.143.889 9.389.576 9.414.527 9.438.084 9.431.014 9.408.521 9.361.865 9.235.673 9.090.342 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.593.711 8.664.204 8.778.821 8.938.890 9.143.889 9.389.576 9.414.527 9.438.084 9.431.014 9.408.521 9.361.865 9.235.673 9.090.342 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.593.711 8.664.204 8.778.821 8.938.890 9.143.889 9.389.576 9.414.527 9.438.084 9.431.014 9.408.521 9.361.865 9.235.673 9.090.342 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.593.711 8.664.204 8.778.821 8.938.890 9.143.889 9.389.576 9.414.527 9.438.084 9.431.014 9.408.521 9.361.865 9.235.673 9.090.342
ES Baseline 39.537.341 40.181.509 41.075.460 42.251.180 43.676.206 45.446.811 46.644.622 47.881.188 49.048.767 50.146.000 51.170.161 51.331.225 51.431.466 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 39.537.341 40.181.509 41.075.460 42.251.180 43.676.206 45.446.811 46.644.622 47.881.188 49.048.767 50.146.000 51.170.161 51.331.225 51.431.466 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 39.537.341 40.181.509 41.075.460 42.251.180 43.676.206 45.446.811 46.644.622 47.881.188 49.048.767 50.146.000 51.170.161 51.331.225 51.431.466 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 39.537.341 40.181.509 41.075.460 42.251.180 43.676.206 45.446.811 46.644.622 47.881.188 49.048.767 50.146.000 51.170.161 51.331.225 51.431.466
FI Baseline 11.940.497 10.334.780 9.452.034 9.179.245 9.438.439 10.183.745 10.276.168 10.369.705 10.444.880 10.509.297 10.556.630 10.499.462 10.428.778 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.940.497 10.334.780 9.452.034 9.179.245 9.438.439 10.183.745 10.276.168 10.369.705 10.444.880 10.509.297 10.556.630 10.499.462 10.428.778 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.940.497 10.334.780 9.452.034 9.179.245 9.438.439 10.183.745 10.276.168 10.369.705 10.444.880 10.509.297 10.556.630 10.499.462 10.428.778 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.940.497 10.334.780 9.452.034 9.179.245 9.438.439 10.183.745 10.276.168 10.369.705 10.444.880 10.509.297 10.556.630 10.499.462 10.428.778
FR Baseline 71.961.621 72.597.595 73.307.295 74.109.830 74.921.182 75.818.279 76.287.510 76.825.153 77.195.494 77.411.980 77.464.700 76.826.494 76.067.117 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 71.961.621 72.597.595 73.307.295 74.109.830 74.921.182 75.818.279 76.287.510 76.825.153 77.195.494 77.411.980 77.464.700 76.826.494 76.067.117 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 71.961.621 72.597.595 73.307.295 74.109.830 74.921.182 75.818.279 76.287.510 76.825.153 77.195.494 77.411.980 77.464.700 76.826.494 76.067.117 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 71.961.621 72.597.595 73.307.295 74.109.830 74.921.182 75.818.279 76.287.510 76.825.153 77.195.494 77.411.980 77.464.700 76.826.494 76.067.117
GR Baseline 7.208.349 7.593.360 7.998.601 8.426.635 8.878.662 9.350.462 9.596.510 9.845.980 10.078.033 10.298.347 10.506.140 10.402.832 10.300.378 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.208.349 7.593.360 7.998.601 8.426.635 8.878.662 9.350.462 9.596.510 9.845.980 10.078.033 10.298.347 10.506.140 10.402.832 10.300.378 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.208.349 7.593.360 7.998.601 8.426.635 8.878.662 9.350.462 9.596.510 9.845.980 10.078.033 10.298.347 10.506.140 10.402.832 10.300.378 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.208.349 7.593.360 7.998.601 8.426.635 8.878.662 9.350.462 9.596.510 9.845.980 10.078.033 10.298.347 10.506.140 10.402.832 10.300.378
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 4.672.188 4.632.658 4.595.067 4.560.314 4.519.346 4.481.170 4.527.352 4.575.015 4.348.704 4.353.681 4.380.540 4.411.675 4.457.535 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.672.188 4.632.658 4.595.067 4.560.314 4.519.346 4.481.170 4.527.352 4.575.015 4.348.704 4.353.681 4.380.540 4.411.675 4.457.535 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.672.188 4.632.658 4.595.067 4.560.314 4.519.346 4.481.170 4.527.352 4.575.015 4.348.704 4.353.681 4.380.540 4.411.675 4.457.535 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.672.188 4.632.658 4.595.067 4.560.314 4.519.346 4.481.170 4.527.352 4.575.015 4.348.704 4.353.681 4.380.540 4.411.675 4.457.535
IE Baseline 3.160.357 3.382.914 3.629.891 3.906.188 4.215.653 4.558.886 4.690.293 4.823.026 4.932.917 5.033.575 5.121.837 5.129.231 5.120.612 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.160.357 3.382.914 3.629.891 3.906.188 4.215.653 4.558.886 4.690.293 4.823.026 4.932.917 5.033.575 5.121.837 5.129.231 5.120.612 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.160.357 3.382.914 3.629.891 3.906.188 4.215.653 4.558.886 4.690.293 4.823.026 4.932.917 5.033.575 5.121.837 5.129.231 5.120.612 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.160.357 3.382.914 3.629.891 3.906.188 4.215.653 4.558.886 4.690.293 4.823.026 4.932.917 5.033.575 5.121.837 5.129.231 5.120.612
IT Baseline 85.095.166 86.667.763 88.672.839 91.161.030 94.093.373 97.547.366 97.387.467 97.211.634 96.871.845 96.361.644 95.673.192 95.346.985 94.855.476 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 85.095.166 86.667.763 88.672.839 91.161.030 94.093.373 97.547.366 97.387.467 97.211.634 96.871.845 96.361.644 95.673.192 95.346.985 94.855.476 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 85.095.166 86.667.763 88.672.839 91.161.030 94.093.373 97.547.366 97.387.467 97.211.634 96.871.845 96.361.644 95.673.192 95.346.985 94.855.476 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 85.095.166 86.667.763 88.672.839 91.161.030 94.093.373 97.547.366 97.387.467 97.211.634 96.871.845 96.361.644 95.673.192 95.346.985 94.855.476
LU Baseline 779.646 766.989 761.547 762.755 768.709 779.876 778.099 777.667 774.282 769.179 761.560 751.650 740.183 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 779.646 766.989 761.547 762.755 768.709 779.876 778.099 777.667 774.282 769.179 761.560 751.650 740.183 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 779.646 766.989 761.547 762.755 768.709 779.876 778.099 777.667 774.282 769.179 761.560 751.650 740.183 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 779.646 766.989 761.547 762.755 768.709 779.876 778.099 777.667 774.282 769.179 761.560 751.650 740.183
NL Baseline 21.097.539 21.371.353 21.656.397 21.958.210 22.265.459 22.563.688 22.751.071 22.926.369 23.030.540 23.076.395 23.061.215 23.039.806 22.966.435 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 21.097.539 21.371.353 21.656.397 21.958.210 22.265.459 22.563.688 22.751.071 22.926.369 23.030.540 23.076.395 23.061.215 23.039.806 22.966.435 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 21.097.539 21.371.353 21.656.397 21.958.210 22.265.459 22.563.688 22.751.071 22.926.369 23.030.540 23.076.395 23.061.215 23.039.806 22.966.435 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 21.097.539 21.371.353 21.656.397 21.958.210 22.265.459 22.563.688 22.751.071 22.926.369 23.030.540 23.076.395 23.061.215 23.039.806 22.966.435
PL Baseline 11.363.481 11.806.080 12.316.692 12.907.599 13.557.404 14.239.654 14.674.992 15.162.685 14.717.144 15.043.592 15.463.641 15.678.129 15.911.786 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.363.481 11.806.080 12.316.692 12.907.599 13.557.404 14.239.654 14.674.992 15.162.685 14.717.144 15.043.592 15.463.641 15.678.129 15.911.786 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.363.481 11.806.080 12.316.692 12.907.599 13.557.404 14.239.654 14.674.992 15.162.685 14.717.144 15.043.592 15.463.641 15.678.129 15.911.786 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.363.481 11.806.080 12.316.692 12.907.599 13.557.404 14.239.654 14.674.992 15.162.685 14.717.144 15.043.592 15.463.641 15.678.129 15.911.786
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 9.696.981 10.337.314 11.016.158 11.739.602 12.505.269 13.314.440 13.472.046 13.631.814 13.767.805 13.879.910 13.963.493 13.781.221 13.569.698 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.696.981 10.337.314 11.016.158 11.739.602 12.505.269 13.314.440 13.472.046 13.631.814 13.767.805 13.879.910 13.963.493 13.781.221 13.569.698 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.696.981 10.337.314 11.016.158 11.739.602 12.505.269 13.314.440 13.472.046 13.631.814 13.767.805 13.879.910 13.963.493 13.781.221 13.569.698 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.696.981 10.337.314 11.016.158 11.739.602 12.505.269 13.314.440 13.472.046 13.631.814 13.767.805 13.879.910 13.963.493 13.781.221 13.569.698
SE Baseline 14.362.440 14.462.460 14.582.274 14.720.980 14.877.567 15.031.264 15.153.118 15.275.080 15.368.143 15.435.507 15.461.303 15.340.632 15.181.388 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.362.440 14.462.460 14.582.274 14.720.980 14.877.567 15.031.264 15.153.118 15.275.080 15.368.143 15.435.507 15.461.303 15.340.632 15.181.388 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.362.440 14.462.460 14.582.274 14.720.980 14.877.567 15.031.264 15.153.118 15.275.080 15.368.143 15.435.507 15.461.303 15.340.632 15.181.388 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.362.440 14.462.460 14.582.274 14.720.980 14.877.567 15.031.264 15.153.118 15.275.080 15.368.143 15.435.507 15.461.303 15.340.632 15.181.388
SI Baseline 1.122.081 1.112.938 1.103.791 1.094.364 1.085.034 1.074.385 1.085.304 1.097.994 1.108.465 1.116.151 1.120.923 1.129.941 1.137.401 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.122.081 1.112.939 1.103.792 1.094.365 1.085.036 1.074.386 1.085.305 1.097.996 1.108.466 1.116.152 1.120.924 1.129.942 1.137.402 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.122.081 1.112.939 1.103.792 1.094.365 1.085.036 1.074.386 1.085.305 1.097.996 1.108.466 1.116.152 1.120.924 1.129.942 1.137.402 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.122.081 1.112.939 1.103.792 1.094.365 1.085.036 1.074.386 1.085.305 1.097.996 1.108.466 1.116.152 1.120.924 1.129.942 1.137.402
UK Baseline 75.776.057 75.950.286 76.167.424 76.431.573 76.718.755 76.976.816 77.755.826 78.543.345 79.097.299 79.471.055 79.638.965 79.355.727 78.867.581 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 75.776.057 75.950.286 76.167.424 76.431.573 76.718.755 76.976.816 77.755.826 78.543.345 79.097.299 79.471.055 79.638.965 79.355.727 78.867.581 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 75.776.057 75.950.286 76.167.424 76.431.573 76.718.755 76.976.816 77.755.826 78.543.345 79.097.299 79.471.055 79.638.965 79.355.727 78.867.581 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 75.776.057 75.950.286 76.167.424 76.431.573 76.718.755 76.976.816 77.755.826 78.543.345 79.097.299 79.471.055 79.638.965 79.355.727 78.867.581
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 404.117.908 400.842.532 398.069.287 395.248.036 393.032.160 391.286.018 390.017.877 389.243.436 389.047.118 389.284.200 390.051.055 391.324.303 393.086.997 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 404.118.015 400.842.634 397.129.708 392.287.779 386.749.343 381.918.078 377.909.751 374.786.148 372.593.152 371.148.884 370.507.822 370.621.994 371.461.478 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 404.118.144 400.842.758 397.086.168 392.054.535 386.130.784 380.877.445 376.484.911 373.025.958 370.545.734 368.852.980 367.988.318 367.902.755 368.569.129 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 404.118.144 400.842.758 397.815.763 394.299.862 390.709.410 387.795.709 385.657.574 384.331.746 383.866.360 384.073.408 384.998.120 386.589.235 388.817.565
EU15 Baseline 352.125.275 349.330.090 346.940.116 344.658.357 342.833.659 341.404.337 340.370.156 339.747.868 339.573.298 339.796.198 340.465.526 341.562.858 343.078.851 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 352.125.382 349.330.192 346.000.537 341.698.100 336.550.842 332.036.396 328.262.031 325.290.580 323.119.331 321.660.882 320.922.293 320.860.549 321.453.332 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 352.125.382 349.330.192 346.090.511 341.871.212 336.804.733 332.283.800 328.479.128 325.451.041 323.204.926 321.658.827 320.827.407 320.672.455 321.174.372 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 352.125.382 349.330.192 346.805.667 344.088.028 341.340.070 339.157.032 337.609.384 336.722.753 336.504.380 336.873.998 337.847.739 339.384.772 341.463.786
EU10 Baseline 51.992.633 51.512.442 51.129.171 50.589.679 50.198.501 49.881.681 49.647.721 49.495.568 49.473.821 49.488.002 49.585.529 49.761.445 50.008.146 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 51.992.633 51.512.442 51.129.171 50.589.679 50.198.501 49.881.681 49.647.721 49.495.568 49.473.821 49.488.002 49.585.529 49.761.445 50.008.146 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 51.992.763 51.512.566 50.995.657 50.183.323 49.326.051 48.593.645 48.005.783 47.574.917 47.340.807 47.194.153 47.160.911 47.230.300 47.394.757 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 51.992.763 51.512.566 51.010.096 50.211.835 49.369.339 48.638.677 48.048.190 47.608.993 47.361.980 47.199.410 47.150.381 47.204.464 47.353.779
AT Baseline 2.268.746 2.239.244 2.219.061 2.203.698 2.195.148 2.191.625 2.191.110 2.192.165 2.193.460 2.194.637 2.196.091 2.198.753 2.203.389 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.268.746 2.239.244 2.218.811 2.200.590 2.181.222 2.168.118 2.159.042 2.152.445 2.146.988 2.142.470 2.139.432 2.139.121 2.142.296 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.268.746 2.239.244 2.215.604 2.190.468 2.161.092 2.137.369 2.117.833 2.100.389 2.083.341 2.066.186 2.049.548 2.034.973 2.023.683 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.268.746 2.239.244 2.221.129 2.206.452 2.191.665 2.182.302 2.176.848 2.173.829 2.171.942 2.170.974 2.171.381 2.174.294 2.180.380
BE Baseline 2.423.289 2.402.430 2.395.485 2.361.641 2.347.734 2.338.384 2.333.014 2.331.157 2.340.272 2.344.029 2.350.165 2.358.261 2.367.833 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.423.309 2.402.450 2.387.226 2.337.425 2.295.169 2.256.875 2.223.829 2.196.807 2.184.000 2.170.220 2.162.458 2.160.434 2.163.715 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.423.309 2.402.450 2.383.140 2.323.259 2.265.023 2.207.871 2.155.904 2.109.984 2.078.418 2.046.587 2.021.356 2.002.741 1.990.564 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.423.309 2.402.450 2.390.103 2.344.600 2.308.392 2.275.432 2.247.642 2.225.360 2.216.612 2.205.952 2.200.642 2.200.505 2.205.158
CZ Baseline 2.887.097 2.938.698 2.998.554 3.031.983 3.069.749 3.110.103 3.154.466 3.202.013 3.252.100 3.303.696 3.357.042 3.413.588 3.468.707 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.887.097 2.938.698 2.988.009 3.004.012 3.014.873 3.026.899 3.042.035 3.059.294 3.078.178 3.096.297 3.113.137 3.131.131 3.143.010 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.887.097 2.938.698 2.984.089 2.991.333 2.988.585 2.984.281 2.982.687 2.982.564 2.983.357 2.981.730 2.976.484 2.969.951 2.953.730 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.887.097 2.938.698 2.990.799 3.010.180 3.026.173 3.042.698 3.062.503 3.084.561 3.108.344 3.131.584 3.153.789 3.176.919 3.194.407
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 24.545.600 24.390.194 24.275.798 24.159.299 24.081.226 24.037.695 24.026.614 24.046.377 24.092.313 24.163.806 24.258.679 24.373.782 24.508.778 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 24.545.600 24.390.194 24.206.346 23.943.966 23.624.013 23.345.936 23.120.648 22.949.842 22.829.735 22.758.075 22.732.260 22.749.665 22.809.823 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 24.545.600 24.390.194 24.170.269 23.812.509 23.338.756 22.877.761 22.471.803 22.122.307 21.827.472 21.584.559 21.392.287 21.249.137 21.155.611 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 24.545.600 24.390.194 24.231.970 24.006.046 23.735.244 23.493.059 23.299.601 23.155.746 23.058.804 23.007.142 22.999.000 23.032.080 23.106.225
DK Baseline 3.457.171 3.375.648 3.309.016 3.238.774 3.182.259 3.140.879 3.112.160 3.090.707 3.070.058 3.046.516 3.019.779 2.992.113 2.967.382 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.457.171 3.375.648 3.311.970 3.237.811 3.168.901 3.118.909 3.083.453 3.056.287 3.030.283 3.001.971 2.971.566 2.941.988 2.917.265 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.457.171 3.375.648 3.306.389 3.222.509 3.140.896 3.080.353 3.036.700 3.002.689 2.969.844 2.933.465 2.893.336 2.852.469 2.815.417 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.457.171 3.375.648 3.315.963 3.248.032 3.186.943 3.143.106 3.112.865 3.090.514 3.069.563 3.046.791 3.022.336 2.998.833 2.979.999
ES Baseline 19.115.070 19.087.283 19.087.789 19.168.809 19.274.443 19.401.624 19.548.530 19.713.643 19.893.940 20.088.572 20.295.529 20.513.107 20.740.831 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 19.115.070 19.087.283 19.028.903 18.991.349 18.917.335 18.875.502 18.864.197 18.882.464 18.928.747 18.999.570 19.092.956 19.207.796 19.344.299 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 19.115.070 19.087.283 19.004.609 18.908.763 18.743.432 18.600.506 18.490.404 18.411.922 18.364.349 18.342.318 18.343.758 18.367.348 18.413.121 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 19.115.070 19.087.283 19.045.974 19.037.789 19.003.636 18.994.082 19.012.555 19.057.928 19.129.069 19.223.120 19.338.541 19.474.435 19.631.103
FI Baseline 2.033.506 1.989.674 1.946.700 1.917.436 1.895.729 1.884.060 1.882.334 1.888.786 1.900.584 1.913.808 1.924.811 1.932.036 1.936.215 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.033.506 1.989.674 1.946.756 1.915.670 1.886.524 1.869.842 1.864.442 1.867.831 1.876.526 1.886.463 1.894.184 1.898.890 1.902.057 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.033.506 1.989.674 1.943.504 1.904.302 1.863.205 1.834.937 1.820.344 1.816.793 1.820.197 1.825.343 1.827.610 1.825.334 1.819.658 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.033.506 1.989.674 1.949.036 1.922.052 1.897.793 1.884.491 1.881.858 1.887.633 1.898.665 1.911.195 1.921.918 1.929.963 1.936.563
FR Baseline 22.519.483 22.236.890 21.992.622 21.841.293 21.728.915 21.652.888 21.611.120 21.601.835 21.621.378 21.667.603 21.737.856 21.828.238 21.936.422 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 22.519.483 22.236.890 21.909.580 21.583.756 21.196.362 20.851.468 20.558.353 20.319.816 20.135.538 20.002.837 19.920.313 19.885.897 19.898.318 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 22.519.483 22.236.890 21.874.696 21.458.490 20.925.372 20.411.633 19.952.936 19.552.363 19.211.839 18.928.713 18.703.148 18.534.597 18.423.029 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 22.519.483 22.236.890 21.933.940 21.648.387 21.315.727 21.014.113 20.760.267 20.555.813 20.400.841 20.293.358 20.232.585 20.216.842 20.245.184
GR Baseline 7.379.355 7.299.252 7.223.129 7.228.441 7.235.709 7.245.463 7.258.252 7.273.505 7.290.299 7.308.422 7.327.050 7.346.021 7.364.845 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.379.355 7.299.252 7.216.650 7.199.068 7.169.817 7.147.116 7.131.784 7.123.462 7.121.237 7.124.412 7.131.812 7.143.219 7.158.045 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.379.355 7.299.252 7.212.339 7.180.664 7.128.693 7.081.602 7.041.922 7.009.430 6.983.370 6.962.760 6.946.426 6.934.213 6.925.519 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.379.355 7.299.252 7.219.524 7.210.537 7.193.359 7.181.604 7.176.605 7.177.912 7.184.694 7.196.422 7.212.062 7.231.349 7.253.840
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 2.411.586 2.448.032 2.491.541 2.509.125 2.525.722 2.542.078 2.557.433 2.571.511 2.584.179 2.596.507 2.610.878 2.624.179 2.641.881 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.411.586 2.448.032 2.484.749 2.491.095 2.488.770 2.483.925 2.475.460 2.463.109 2.447.414 2.430.572 2.416.699 2.402.036 2.396.820 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.411.586 2.448.032 2.482.248 2.483.126 2.471.688 2.455.137 2.433.366 2.405.793 2.372.949 2.336.974 2.302.284 2.264.773 2.236.659 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.411.586 2.448.032 2.486.601 2.495.197 2.496.740 2.495.597 2.491.290 2.483.467 2.472.541 2.460.362 2.450.689 2.440.163 2.438.047
IE Baseline 2.637.025 2.618.581 2.602.647 2.609.195 2.619.810 2.634.616 2.653.825 2.677.553 2.705.589 2.737.984 2.774.672 2.815.648 2.860.859 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.637.025 2.618.581 2.604.119 2.605.834 2.601.935 2.605.231 2.615.605 2.633.016 2.656.801 2.686.649 2.722.106 2.763.009 2.809.153 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.637.025 2.618.581 2.600.185 2.592.014 2.572.418 2.558.496 2.551.828 2.552.473 2.559.948 2.573.826 2.593.662 2.619.399 2.650.892 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.637.025 2.618.581 2.606.949 2.614.491 2.618.645 2.628.783 2.645.475 2.668.652 2.697.745 2.732.529 2.772.610 2.817.866 2.868.124
IT Baseline 41.834.257 41.437.343 41.098.366 40.706.944 40.364.717 40.069.980 39.815.369 39.597.000 39.413.304 39.259.615 39.133.691 39.030.352 38.948.613 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 41.834.257 41.437.343 40.961.496 40.315.926 39.592.651 38.937.488 38.346.894 37.819.931 37.356.735 36.948.948 36.594.556 36.289.853 36.034.631 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 41.834.257 41.437.343 40.907.993 40.145.024 39.241.919 38.390.045 37.610.593 36.901.442 36.263.707 35.686.685 35.168.733 34.706.320 34.299.445 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 41.834.257 41.437.343 40.999.657 40.413.202 39.772.306 39.184.778 38.656.348 38.184.611 37.770.707 37.407.253 37.093.310 36.825.446 36.603.952
LU Baseline 141.743 139.032 137.204 135.765 135.031 134.834 135.022 135.472 136.075 136.761 137.489 138.224 138.960 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 141.743 139.032 136.914 134.466 131.553 129.473 128.121 127.435 127.317 127.665 128.388 129.380 130.552 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 141.743 139.032 136.466 133.022 128.599 124.923 122.135 120.209 119.089 118.671 118.846 119.473 120.409 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 141.743 139.032 137.228 135.299 133.080 131.533 130.631 130.290 130.418 130.927 131.747 132.797 134.006
NL Baseline 8.265.760 8.226.633 8.203.349 8.180.266 8.160.766 8.141.319 8.123.800 8.112.757 8.113.916 8.131.829 8.167.749 8.219.491 8.283.987 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.265.760 8.226.633 8.180.424 8.108.389 8.007.185 7.905.430 7.807.094 7.719.911 7.652.757 7.611.292 7.597.116 7.607.937 7.640.687 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.265.760 8.226.633 8.169.292 8.072.388 7.930.809 7.781.921 7.633.027 7.492.336 7.370.331 7.273.902 7.206.180 7.165.899 7.150.766 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.265.760 8.226.633 8.188.232 8.130.210 8.050.380 7.968.974 7.890.726 7.822.410 7.772.406 7.746.171 7.745.547 7.768.572 7.812.368
PL Baseline 6.269.730 6.369.954 6.477.120 6.554.917 6.642.348 6.739.185 6.841.839 6.946.127 7.049.974 7.155.715 7.268.825 7.382.715 7.511.050 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.269.730 6.369.954 6.456.040 6.496.460 6.525.393 6.559.716 6.594.808 6.624.631 6.646.496 6.663.096 6.681.366 6.692.004 6.718.910 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.269.730 6.369.954 6.448.189 6.468.517 6.465.606 6.460.986 6.455.210 6.439.997 6.411.343 6.370.714 6.324.989 6.264.134 6.216.681 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.269.730 6.369.954 6.461.601 6.508.394 6.546.864 6.589.018 6.633.113 6.672.921 6.705.421 6.732.434 6.760.084 6.779.837 6.813.313
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 7.252.533 7.112.677 6.963.492 6.888.490 6.812.043 6.738.641 6.673.972 6.623.959 6.592.148 6.581.746 6.591.964 6.619.240 6.658.300 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.252.533 7.112.677 6.944.345 6.819.784 6.666.564 6.519.270 6.385.653 6.274.156 6.190.198 6.136.213 6.110.318 6.107.137 6.119.907 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.252.533 7.112.677 6.937.022 6.791.735 6.604.081 6.417.806 6.244.965 6.095.322 5.975.963 5.889.568 5.834.434 5.804.647 5.792.547 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.252.533 7.112.677 6.949.895 6.838.923 6.705.303 6.575.107 6.456.895 6.358.566 6.285.572 6.240.680 6.222.527 6.226.393 6.246.014
SE Baseline 2.887.932 2.848.703 2.817.820 2.794.751 2.780.225 2.775.539 2.780.309 2.791.342 2.803.984 2.814.055 2.820.028 2.822.574 2.824.385 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.887.932 2.848.703 2.812.075 2.775.784 2.740.040 2.717.981 2.708.962 2.708.668 2.710.919 2.710.619 2.706.455 2.699.943 2.694.686 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.887.932 2.848.703 2.807.433 2.760.866 2.710.340 2.673.813 2.652.744 2.642.259 2.634.898 2.623.950 2.607.197 2.585.930 2.564.211 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.887.932 2.848.703 2.815.211 2.783.859 2.754.347 2.736.934 2.731.805 2.734.991 2.740.887 2.744.665 2.744.972 2.743.055 2.742.215
SI Baseline 543.197 545.016 548.232 553.285 559.372 566.615 574.965 584.326 594.814 606.310 618.903 632.502 646.999 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 543.197 545.017 546.123 546.713 545.956 546.317 547.922 550.775 555.214 561.111 568.515 577.338 587.487 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 543.197 545.017 545.312 543.800 539.656 536.077 533.724 532.588 533.077 535.015 538.419 543.187 549.213 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 543.197 545.017 546.704 548.291 548.926 550.460 553.210 557.154 562.599 569.424 577.710 587.392 598.396
UK Baseline 25.981.856 25.763.774 25.599.465 25.491.302 25.429.231 25.408.716 25.427.211 25.482.866 25.570.653 25.689.174 25.836.115 26.007.168 26.200.974 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 25.981.856 25.763.774 25.529.215 25.258.930 24.928.163 24.660.550 24.457.239 24.320.336 24.247.081 24.235.231 24.283.004 24.386.710 24.544.505 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 25.981.856 25.763.774 25.485.521 25.110.573 24.612.679 24.153.943 23.760.561 23.436.139 23.181.043 22.993.067 22.872.918 22.819.072 22.831.393 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 25.981.856 25.763.774 25.560.100 25.341.166 25.081.934 24.871.584 24.720.353 24.629.370 24.596.718 24.620.559 24.699.679 24.830.726 25.012.295
modal split 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 71,24% 70,87% 70,53% 70,22% 69,97% 69,72% 69,73% 69,71% 69,67% 69,62% 69,60% 69,53% 69,46% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 71,24% 70,87% 70,53% 70,22% 69,97% 69,72% 69,73% 69,71% 69,67% 69,62% 69,60% 69,53% 69,46% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 71,24% 70,87% 70,53% 70,22% 69,97% 69,72% 69,73% 69,71% 69,67% 69,62% 69,60% 69,53% 69,46% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 71,24% 70,87% 70,53% 70,22% 69,97% 69,72% 69,73% 69,71% 69,67% 69,62% 69,60% 69,53% 69,46%
EU15 Baseline 71,69% 71,30% 70,96% 70,65% 70,40% 70,18% 70,18% 70,16% 70,13% 70,09% 70,06% 70,01% 69,96% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 71,69% 71,30% 70,96% 70,65% 70,40% 70,18% 70,18% 70,16% 70,13% 70,09% 70,06% 70,01% 69,96% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 71,69% 71,30% 70,96% 70,65% 70,40% 70,18% 70,18% 70,16% 70,13% 70,09% 70,06% 70,01% 69,96% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 71,69% 71,30% 70,96% 70,65% 70,40% 70,18% 70,18% 70,16% 70,13% 70,09% 70,06% 70,01% 69,96%
EU10 Baseline 67,87% 67,66% 67,36% 67,06% 66,80% 66,37% 66,44% 66,42% 66,34% 66,21% 66,22% 66,06% 65,88% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 67,87% 67,66% 67,36% 67,06% 66,80% 66,37% 66,44% 66,42% 66,34% 66,21% 66,22% 66,06% 65,88% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 67,87% 67,66% 67,36% 67,06% 66,80% 66,37% 66,44% 66,42% 66,34% 66,21% 66,22% 66,06% 65,88% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 67,87% 67,66% 67,36% 67,06% 66,80% 66,37% 66,44% 66,42% 66,34% 66,21% 66,22% 66,06% 65,88%
AT Baseline 68,07% 67,54% 67,10% 66,73% 66,44% 66,23% 66,32% 66,41% 66,50% 66,58% 66,65% 66,59% 66,52% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 68,07% 67,54% 67,10% 66,73% 66,44% 66,23% 66,32% 66,41% 66,50% 66,58% 66,65% 66,59% 66,52% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 68,07% 67,54% 67,10% 66,73% 66,44% 66,23% 66,32% 66,41% 66,50% 66,58% 66,65% 66,59% 66,52% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 68,07% 67,54% 67,10% 66,73% 66,44% 66,23% 66,32% 66,41% 66,50% 66,58% 66,65% 66,59% 66,52%
BE Baseline 74,75% 74,90% 74,73% 74,50% 74,51% 73,99% 73,95% 73,54% 72,98% 72,17% 72,10% 72,18% 72,22% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 74,75% 74,90% 74,73% 74,50% 74,51% 73,99% 73,95% 73,54% 72,98% 72,17% 72,10% 72,18% 72,23% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 74,75% 74,90% 74,73% 74,50% 74,51% 73,99% 73,95% 73,54% 72,98% 72,17% 72,10% 72,18% 72,23% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 74,75% 74,90% 74,73% 74,50% 74,51% 73,99% 73,95% 73,54% 72,98% 72,17% 72,10% 72,18% 72,23%
CZ Baseline 59,37% 60,61% 61,80% 62,92% 64,00% 65,02% 65,19% 65,35% 65,51% 65,67% 65,82% 66,54% 67,24% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 59,37% 60,61% 61,80% 62,92% 64,00% 65,02% 65,19% 65,35% 65,51% 65,67% 65,82% 66,54% 67,24% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 59,37% 60,61% 61,80% 62,92% 64,00% 65,02% 65,19% 65,35% 65,51% 65,67% 65,82% 66,54% 67,24% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 59,37% 60,61% 61,80% 62,92% 64,00% 65,02% 65,19% 65,35% 65,51% 65,67% 65,82% 66,54% 67,24%
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 73,46% 73,45% 73,43% 73,39% 73,35% 73,30% 73,32% 73,33% 73,34% 73,34% 73,34% 73,33% 73,31% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 73,46% 73,45% 73,43% 73,39% 73,35% 73,30% 73,32% 73,33% 73,34% 73,34% 73,34% 73,33% 73,31% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 73,46% 73,45% 73,43% 73,39% 73,35% 73,30% 73,32% 73,33% 73,34% 73,34% 73,34% 73,33% 73,31% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 73,46% 73,45% 73,43% 73,39% 73,35% 73,30% 73,32% 73,33% 73,34% 73,34% 73,34% 73,33% 73,31%
DK Baseline 65,60% 65,36% 65,19% 65,10% 65,08% 65,14% 65,11% 65,07% 65,03% 64,98% 64,93% 64,70% 64,48% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 65,60% 65,36% 65,19% 65,10% 65,08% 65,14% 65,11% 65,07% 65,03% 64,98% 64,93% 64,70% 64,48% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 65,60% 65,36% 65,19% 65,10% 65,08% 65,14% 65,11% 65,07% 65,03% 64,98% 64,93% 64,70% 64,48% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 65,60% 65,36% 65,19% 65,10% 65,08% 65,14% 65,11% 65,07% 65,03% 64,98% 64,93% 64,70% 64,48%
ES Baseline 63,10% 62,06% 61,16% 60,38% 59,74% 59,24% 59,48% 59,72% 59,93% 60,14% 60,33% 60,07% 59,80% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 63,10% 62,06% 61,16% 60,38% 59,74% 59,24% 59,48% 59,72% 59,93% 60,14% 60,33% 60,07% 59,80% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 63,10% 62,06% 61,16% 60,38% 59,74% 59,24% 59,48% 59,72% 59,93% 60,14% 60,33% 60,07% 59,80% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 63,10% 62,06% 61,16% 60,38% 59,74% 59,24% 59,48% 59,72% 59,93% 60,14% 60,33% 60,07% 59,80%
FI Baseline 76,23% 72,38% 69,14% 66,87% 65,75% 65,69% 65,73% 65,77% 65,80% 65,83% 65,85% 65,74% 65,64% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 76,23% 72,38% 69,14% 66,87% 65,75% 65,69% 65,73% 65,77% 65,80% 65,83% 65,85% 65,74% 65,64% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 76,23% 72,38% 69,14% 66,87% 65,75% 65,69% 65,73% 65,77% 65,80% 65,83% 65,85% 65,74% 65,64% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 76,23% 72,38% 69,14% 66,87% 65,75% 65,69% 65,73% 65,77% 65,80% 65,83% 65,85% 65,74% 65,64%
FR Baseline 74,28% 73,88% 73,51% 73,17% 72,86% 72,57% 72,66% 72,74% 72,83% 72,90% 72,98% 72,85% 72,71% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 74,28% 73,88% 73,51% 73,17% 72,86% 72,57% 72,66% 72,74% 72,83% 72,90% 72,98% 72,85% 72,71% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 74,28% 73,88% 73,51% 73,17% 72,86% 72,57% 72,66% 72,74% 72,83% 72,90% 72,98% 72,85% 72,71% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 74,28% 73,88% 73,51% 73,17% 72,86% 72,57% 72,66% 72,74% 72,83% 72,90% 72,98% 72,85% 72,71%
GR Baseline 49,31% 49,49% 49,65% 49,81% 49,95% 50,09% 50,21% 50,32% 50,42% 50,52% 50,60% 50,35% 50,09% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 49,31% 49,49% 49,65% 49,81% 49,95% 50,09% 50,21% 50,32% 50,42% 50,52% 50,60% 50,35% 50,09% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 49,31% 49,49% 49,65% 49,81% 49,95% 50,09% 50,21% 50,32% 50,42% 50,52% 50,60% 50,35% 50,09% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 49,31% 49,49% 49,65% 49,81% 49,95% 50,09% 50,21% 50,32% 50,42% 50,52% 50,60% 50,35% 50,09%
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 55,27% 55,04% 54,79% 54,50% 54,19% 53,86% 54,18% 54,48% 54,78% 55,06% 55,33% 56,12% 56,93% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 55,27% 55,04% 54,79% 54,50% 54,19% 53,86% 54,18% 54,48% 54,78% 55,06% 55,33% 56,12% 56,93% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 55,27% 55,04% 54,79% 54,50% 54,19% 53,86% 54,18% 54,48% 54,78% 55,06% 55,33% 56,12% 56,93% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 55,27% 55,04% 54,79% 54,50% 54,19% 53,86% 54,18% 54,48% 54,78% 55,06% 55,33% 56,12% 56,93%
IE Baseline 66,31% 66,50% 66,73% 66,98% 67,27% 67,60% 67,78% 67,94% 68,10% 68,24% 68,37% 68,18% 67,97% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 66,31% 66,50% 66,73% 66,98% 67,27% 67,60% 67,78% 67,94% 68,10% 68,24% 68,37% 68,18% 67,97% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 66,31% 66,50% 66,73% 66,98% 67,27% 67,60% 67,78% 67,94% 68,10% 68,24% 68,37% 68,18% 67,97% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 66,31% 66,50% 66,73% 66,98% 67,27% 67,60% 67,78% 67,94% 68,10% 68,24% 68,37% 68,18% 67,97%
IT Baseline 70,80% 70,60% 70,50% 70,49% 70,57% 70,74% 70,56% 70,37% 70,17% 69,96% 69,74% 69,90% 70,05% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 70,80% 70,60% 70,50% 70,49% 70,57% 70,74% 70,56% 70,37% 70,17% 69,96% 69,74% 69,90% 70,05% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 70,80% 70,60% 70,50% 70,49% 70,57% 70,74% 70,56% 70,37% 70,17% 69,96% 69,74% 69,90% 70,05% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 70,80% 70,60% 70,50% 70,49% 70,57% 70,74% 70,56% 70,37% 70,17% 69,96% 69,74% 69,90% 70,05%
LU Baseline 73,55% 72,69% 72,06% 71,65% 71,45% 71,45% 71,22% 70,99% 70,74% 70,47% 70,19% 70,24% 70,27% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 73,55% 72,69% 72,06% 71,65% 71,45% 71,45% 71,22% 70,99% 70,74% 70,47% 70,19% 70,24% 70,27% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 73,55% 72,69% 72,06% 71,65% 71,45% 71,45% 71,22% 70,99% 70,74% 70,47% 70,19% 70,24% 70,27% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 73,55% 72,69% 72,06% 71,65% 71,45% 71,45% 71,22% 70,99% 70,74% 70,47% 70,19% 70,24% 70,27%
NL Baseline 72,84% 72,76% 72,67% 72,58% 72,48% 72,38% 72,81% 73,23% 73,62% 74,00% 74,37% 73,93% 73,47% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 72,84% 72,76% 72,67% 72,58% 72,48% 72,38% 72,81% 73,23% 73,62% 74,00% 74,37% 73,93% 73,47% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 72,84% 72,76% 72,67% 72,58% 72,48% 72,38% 72,81% 73,23% 73,62% 74,00% 74,37% 73,93% 73,47% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 72,84% 72,76% 72,67% 72,58% 72,48% 72,38% 72,81% 73,23% 73,62% 74,00% 74,37% 73,93% 73,47%
PL Baseline 54,83% 56,04% 57,22% 58,38% 59,51% 60,62% 61,32% 62,00% 62,66% 63,31% 63,93% 64,72% 65,48% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 54,83% 56,04% 57,22% 58,38% 59,51% 60,62% 61,32% 62,00% 62,66% 63,31% 63,93% 64,72% 65,48% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 54,83% 56,04% 57,22% 58,38% 59,51% 60,62% 61,32% 62,00% 62,66% 63,31% 63,93% 64,72% 65,48% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 54,83% 56,04% 57,22% 58,38% 59,51% 60,62% 61,32% 62,00% 62,66% 63,31% 63,93% 64,72% 65,48%
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 64,81% 65,93% 67,01% 68,04% 69,04% 70,00% 70,12% 70,21% 70,29% 70,33% 70,36% 69,90% 69,42% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 64,81% 65,93% 67,01% 68,04% 69,04% 70,00% 70,12% 70,21% 70,29% 70,33% 70,36% 69,90% 69,42% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 64,81% 65,93% 67,01% 68,04% 69,04% 70,00% 70,12% 70,21% 70,29% 70,33% 70,36% 69,90% 69,42% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 64,81% 65,93% 67,01% 68,04% 69,04% 70,00% 70,12% 70,21% 70,29% 70,33% 70,36% 69,90% 69,42%
SE Baseline 71,29% 70,63% 69,98% 69,36% 68,75% 68,16% 68,05% 67,92% 67,79% 67,65% 67,50% 67,29% 67,10% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 71,29% 70,63% 69,98% 69,36% 68,75% 68,16% 68,05% 67,92% 67,79% 67,65% 67,50% 67,29% 67,10% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 71,29% 70,63% 69,98% 69,36% 68,75% 68,16% 68,05% 67,92% 67,79% 67,65% 67,50% 67,29% 67,10% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 71,29% 70,63% 69,98% 69,36% 68,75% 68,16% 68,05% 67,92% 67,79% 67,65% 67,50% 67,29% 67,10%
SI Baseline 62,10% 64,80% 66,88% 68,41% 69,49% 70,19% 70,15% 70,10% 70,04% 69,98% 69,92% 70,10% 70,25% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 62,10% 64,80% 66,88% 68,41% 69,49% 70,19% 70,15% 70,10% 70,04% 69,98% 69,92% 70,10% 70,25% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 62,10% 64,80% 66,88% 68,41% 69,49% 70,19% 70,15% 70,10% 70,04% 69,98% 69,92% 70,10% 70,25% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 62,10% 64,80% 66,88% 68,41% 69,49% 70,19% 70,15% 70,10% 70,04% 69,98% 69,92% 70,10% 70,25%
UK Baseline 76,03% 75,52% 75,01% 74,50% 74,00% 73,50% 73,43% 73,37% 73,30% 73,22% 73,14% 73,23% 73,31% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 76,03% 75,52% 75,01% 74,50% 74,00% 73,50% 73,43% 73,37% 73,30% 73,22% 73,14% 73,23% 73,31% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 76,03% 75,52% 75,01% 74,50% 74,00% 73,50% 73,43% 73,37% 73,30% 73,22% 73,14% 73,23% 73,31% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 76,03% 75,52% 75,01% 74,50% 74,00% 73,50% 73,43% 73,37% 73,30% 73,22% 73,14% 73,23% 73,31%
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 69,38% 69,29% 69,19% 69,24% 69,29% 69,33% 69,37% 69,41% 69,44% 69,47% 69,49% 69,52% 69,54% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 69,38% 69,29% 69,19% 69,26% 69,33% 69,40% 69,46% 69,51% 69,56% 69,60% 69,64% 69,67% 69,70% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 69,38% 69,29% 69,19% 69,25% 69,30% 69,33% 69,35% 69,37% 69,38% 69,39% 69,40% 69,41% 69,41% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 69,38% 69,29% 69,19% 69,25% 69,30% 69,35% 69,39% 69,43% 69,46% 69,49% 69,51% 69,53% 69,55%
EU15 Baseline 69,89% 69,82% 69,73% 69,79% 69,84% 69,88% 69,93% 69,97% 70,00% 70,04% 70,07% 70,09% 70,12% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 69,89% 69,82% 69,73% 69,80% 69,88% 69,94% 70,00% 70,06% 70,11% 70,16% 70,20% 70,24% 70,27% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 69,89% 69,82% 69,73% 69,79% 69,84% 69,87% 69,90% 69,92% 69,94% 69,95% 69,96% 69,97% 69,97% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 69,89% 69,82% 69,73% 69,79% 69,85% 69,90% 69,94% 69,98% 70,02% 70,05% 70,08% 70,10% 70,12%
EU10 Baseline 65,70% 65,50% 65,29% 65,32% 65,34% 65,35% 65,37% 65,38% 65,38% 65,38% 65,38% 65,37% 65,36% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 65,70% 65,50% 65,29% 65,34% 65,39% 65,45% 65,49% 65,53% 65,56% 65,59% 65,60% 65,61% 65,62% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 65,70% 65,50% 65,29% 65,33% 65,37% 65,39% 65,41% 65,42% 65,42% 65,41% 65,40% 65,39% 65,36% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 65,70% 65,50% 65,29% 65,33% 65,37% 65,40% 65,43% 65,45% 65,46% 65,47% 65,47% 65,47% 65,46%
AT Baseline 66,44% 66,36% 66,27% 66,35% 66,43% 66,51% 66,58% 66,65% 66,72% 66,78% 66,84% 66,90% 66,95% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 66,44% 66,36% 66,27% 66,38% 66,50% 66,62% 66,72% 66,83% 66,92% 67,01% 67,09% 67,17% 67,24% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 66,44% 66,36% 66,27% 66,37% 66,46% 66,54% 66,61% 66,67% 66,73% 66,79% 66,83% 66,88% 66,91% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 66,44% 66,36% 66,27% 66,37% 66,48% 66,58% 66,67% 66,76% 66,84% 66,92% 66,99% 67,06% 67,12%
BE Baseline 72,25% 72,26% 72,24% 72,30% 72,35% 72,40% 72,44% 72,48% 72,52% 72,55% 72,57% 72,59% 72,61% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 72,25% 72,26% 72,24% 72,32% 72,42% 72,51% 72,59% 72,67% 72,73% 72,79% 72,83% 72,86% 72,89% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 72,25% 72,26% 72,24% 72,30% 72,38% 72,43% 72,48% 72,51% 72,54% 72,57% 72,58% 72,58% 72,58% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 72,25% 72,26% 72,24% 72,31% 72,39% 72,46% 72,52% 72,57% 72,62% 72,66% 72,69% 72,72% 72,74%
CZ Baseline 67,92% 68,57% 69,20% 69,41% 69,61% 69,81% 69,99% 70,18% 70,35% 70,52% 70,68% 70,84% 70,99% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 67,92% 68,57% 69,20% 69,41% 69,62% 69,82% 70,00% 70,19% 70,36% 70,53% 70,69% 70,85% 71,00% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 67,92% 68,57% 69,20% 69,40% 69,59% 69,75% 69,91% 70,06% 70,21% 70,35% 70,49% 70,61% 70,72% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 67,92% 68,57% 69,20% 69,41% 69,60% 69,78% 69,95% 70,12% 70,28% 70,44% 70,59% 70,73% 70,86%
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 73,30% 73,28% 73,26% 73,33% 73,40% 73,47% 73,53% 73,60% 73,66% 73,72% 73,78% 73,84% 73,90% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 73,30% 73,28% 73,26% 73,36% 73,46% 73,55% 73,64% 73,72% 73,80% 73,88% 73,95% 74,02% 74,09% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 73,30% 73,28% 73,26% 73,34% 73,41% 73,45% 73,50% 73,54% 73,57% 73,61% 73,64% 73,67% 73,70% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 73,30% 73,28% 73,26% 73,34% 73,42% 73,49% 73,56% 73,63% 73,69% 73,75% 73,81% 73,86% 73,91%
DK Baseline 64,29% 64,12% 64,00% 63,86% 63,72% 63,58% 63,43% 63,28% 63,12% 62,96% 62,80% 62,63% 62,46% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 64,29% 64,12% 64,00% 63,89% 63,79% 63,69% 63,58% 63,45% 63,32% 63,19% 63,04% 62,90% 62,75% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 64,29% 64,12% 64,00% 63,89% 63,78% 63,67% 63,55% 63,41% 63,27% 63,13% 62,97% 62,82% 62,65% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 64,29% 64,12% 64,00% 63,88% 63,77% 63,65% 63,53% 63,39% 63,25% 63,11% 62,96% 62,80% 62,64%
ES Baseline 59,53% 59,24% 58,95% 59,07% 59,18% 59,28% 59,38% 59,47% 59,56% 59,64% 59,71% 59,78% 59,85% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 59,53% 59,24% 58,95% 59,08% 59,20% 59,32% 59,43% 59,54% 59,63% 59,73% 59,81% 59,89% 59,97% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 59,53% 59,24% 58,95% 59,07% 59,17% 59,26% 59,34% 59,42% 59,49% 59,55% 59,61% 59,66% 59,71% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 59,53% 59,24% 58,95% 59,07% 59,18% 59,28% 59,37% 59,46% 59,55% 59,62% 59,70% 59,76% 59,83%
FI Baseline 65,53% 65,43% 65,33% 65,44% 65,54% 65,64% 65,74% 65,83% 65,91% 66,00% 66,07% 66,15% 66,22% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 65,53% 65,43% 65,33% 65,47% 65,62% 65,77% 65,91% 66,04% 66,16% 66,27% 66,38% 66,48% 66,57% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 65,53% 65,43% 65,33% 65,47% 65,60% 65,72% 65,84% 65,94% 66,04% 66,14% 66,22% 66,30% 66,37% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 65,53% 65,43% 65,33% 65,47% 65,60% 65,73% 65,85% 65,97% 66,08% 66,18% 66,28% 66,36% 66,44%
FR Baseline 72,57% 72,42% 72,26% 72,32% 72,37% 72,43% 72,48% 72,53% 72,57% 72,62% 72,66% 72,70% 72,73% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 72,57% 72,42% 72,26% 72,33% 72,40% 72,46% 72,52% 72,57% 72,62% 72,67% 72,72% 72,76% 72,80% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 72,57% 72,42% 72,26% 72,32% 72,36% 72,38% 72,41% 72,42% 72,44% 72,46% 72,47% 72,48% 72,50% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 72,57% 72,42% 72,26% 72,32% 72,37% 72,42% 72,46% 72,50% 72,54% 72,57% 72,61% 72,64% 72,67%
GR Baseline 49,83% 49,56% 49,28% 49,28% 49,28% 49,27% 49,26% 49,24% 49,22% 49,19% 49,16% 49,12% 49,07% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 49,83% 49,56% 49,28% 49,30% 49,32% 49,35% 49,36% 49,37% 49,38% 49,37% 49,36% 49,34% 49,32% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 49,83% 49,56% 49,28% 49,30% 49,31% 49,32% 49,32% 49,31% 49,30% 49,28% 49,25% 49,22% 49,17% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 49,83% 49,56% 49,28% 49,30% 49,31% 49,32% 49,32% 49,32% 49,31% 49,29% 49,27% 49,24% 49,21%
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 57,74% 58,55% 59,36% 59,80% 60,23% 60,65% 61,06% 61,46% 61,85% 62,23% 62,60% 62,95% 63,29% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 57,74% 58,55% 59,36% 59,81% 60,25% 60,68% 61,10% 61,51% 61,91% 62,30% 62,68% 63,06% 63,43% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 57,74% 58,55% 59,36% 59,80% 60,22% 60,61% 60,99% 61,35% 61,70% 62,04% 62,37% 62,67% 62,97% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 57,74% 58,55% 59,36% 59,80% 60,23% 60,63% 61,03% 61,42% 61,79% 62,16% 62,52% 62,86% 63,20%
IE Baseline 67,75% 67,52% 67,27% 67,38% 67,47% 67,56% 67,64% 67,72% 67,79% 67,85% 67,90% 67,95% 67,99% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 67,75% 67,52% 67,27% 67,41% 67,55% 67,68% 67,80% 67,91% 68,01% 68,09% 68,17% 68,23% 68,28% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 67,75% 67,52% 67,27% 67,40% 67,52% 67,62% 67,70% 67,78% 67,84% 67,89% 67,94% 67,97% 68,00% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 67,75% 67,52% 67,27% 67,40% 67,53% 67,64% 67,74% 67,83% 67,91% 67,98% 68,04% 68,09% 68,13%
IT Baseline 70,18% 70,31% 70,43% 70,49% 70,54% 70,59% 70,64% 70,69% 70,74% 70,78% 70,82% 70,86% 70,90% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 70,18% 70,31% 70,43% 70,50% 70,56% 70,63% 70,69% 70,75% 70,80% 70,86% 70,91% 70,95% 71,00% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 70,18% 70,31% 70,43% 70,49% 70,54% 70,58% 70,61% 70,64% 70,67% 70,70% 70,72% 70,74% 70,77% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 70,18% 70,31% 70,43% 70,49% 70,54% 70,59% 70,64% 70,68% 70,72% 70,76% 70,80% 70,84% 70,88%
LU Baseline 70,29% 70,29% 70,28% 70,25% 70,21% 70,17% 70,13% 70,08% 70,03% 69,98% 69,92% 69,86% 69,79% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 70,29% 70,29% 70,28% 70,29% 70,31% 70,31% 70,29% 70,27% 70,24% 70,19% 70,13% 70,07% 70,00% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 70,29% 70,29% 70,28% 70,26% 70,23% 70,16% 70,08% 70,00% 69,91% 69,83% 69,74% 69,66% 69,58% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 70,29% 70,29% 70,28% 70,27% 70,27% 70,25% 70,22% 70,18% 70,13% 70,08% 70,02% 69,95% 69,87%
NL Baseline 72,99% 72,50% 71,99% 72,01% 72,04% 72,05% 72,07% 72,08% 72,08% 72,08% 72,08% 72,07% 72,06% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 72,99% 72,50% 71,99% 72,03% 72,08% 72,12% 72,17% 72,20% 72,23% 72,25% 72,27% 72,28% 72,28% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 72,99% 72,50% 71,99% 72,02% 72,05% 72,07% 72,09% 72,09% 72,09% 72,08% 72,07% 72,05% 72,03% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 72,99% 72,50% 71,99% 72,02% 72,05% 72,08% 72,10% 72,12% 72,13% 72,13% 72,13% 72,13% 72,12%
PL Baseline 66,21% 66,91% 67,58% 68,06% 68,53% 69,00% 69,45% 69,89% 70,32% 70,74% 71,15% 71,55% 71,93% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 66,21% 66,91% 67,58% 68,06% 68,54% 68,99% 69,44% 69,87% 70,30% 70,71% 71,11% 71,50% 71,87% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 66,21% 66,91% 67,58% 68,05% 68,50% 68,91% 69,32% 69,72% 70,11% 70,48% 70,83% 71,17% 71,49% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 66,21% 66,91% 67,58% 68,05% 68,51% 68,95% 69,38% 69,80% 70,21% 70,61% 70,99% 71,35% 71,71%
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 68,92% 68,40% 67,85% 67,92% 67,98% 68,04% 68,09% 68,13% 68,16% 68,19% 68,21% 68,23% 68,24% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 68,92% 68,40% 67,85% 67,93% 68,00% 68,08% 68,15% 68,20% 68,25% 68,29% 68,32% 68,34% 68,35% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 68,92% 68,40% 67,85% 67,92% 67,98% 68,03% 68,07% 68,10% 68,12% 68,13% 68,14% 68,14% 68,13% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 68,92% 68,40% 67,85% 67,92% 67,98% 68,04% 68,08% 68,12% 68,15% 68,18% 68,19% 68,20% 68,20%
SE Baseline 66,92% 66,77% 66,64% 66,70% 66,75% 66,81% 66,86% 66,91% 66,96% 67,01% 67,06% 67,11% 67,15% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 66,92% 66,77% 66,64% 66,73% 66,83% 66,92% 67,01% 67,10% 67,18% 67,25% 67,32% 67,38% 67,44% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 66,92% 66,77% 66,64% 66,72% 66,80% 66,87% 66,93% 66,98% 67,04% 67,08% 67,13% 67,16% 67,20% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 66,92% 66,77% 66,64% 66,72% 66,80% 66,87% 66,94% 67,01% 67,07% 67,13% 67,18% 67,23% 67,28%
SI Baseline 70,36% 70,45% 70,50% 70,57% 70,64% 70,70% 70,77% 70,83% 70,89% 70,94% 71,00% 71,05% 71,10% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 70,36% 70,45% 70,50% 70,57% 70,65% 70,71% 70,78% 70,84% 70,90% 70,97% 71,03% 71,09% 71,15% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 70,36% 70,45% 70,50% 70,56% 70,61% 70,64% 70,66% 70,68% 70,71% 70,74% 70,77% 70,79% 70,83% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 70,36% 70,45% 70,50% 70,57% 70,63% 70,68% 70,73% 70,77% 70,82% 70,87% 70,92% 70,97% 71,02%
UK Baseline 73,38% 73,44% 73,49% 73,52% 73,55% 73,58% 73,61% 73,63% 73,64% 73,66% 73,67% 73,67% 73,68% Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 73,38% 73,44% 73,49% 73,54% 73,59% 73,64% 73,68% 73,72% 73,75% 73,78% 73,80% 73,81% 73,82% Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 73,38% 73,44% 73,49% 73,53% 73,56% 73,57% 73,58% 73,58% 73,57% 73,57% 73,56% 73,55% 73,53% Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 73,38% 73,44% 73,49% 73,53% 73,56% 73,59% 73,61% 73,63% 73,65% 73,66% 73,66% 73,66% 73,66%
pkm of small cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 1.851.172 1.791.031 1.738.055 1.689.608 1.646.405 1.602.430 1.623.879 1.646.214 1.669.192 1.694.191 1.720.375 1.739.815 1.760.092 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.851.172 1.791.031 1.738.055 1.689.608 1.646.405 1.602.430 1.623.880 1.646.214 1.669.192 1.694.191 1.720.376 1.739.815 1.760.092 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.851.172 1.791.031 1.738.055 1.689.608 1.646.405 1.602.430 1.623.880 1.646.214 1.669.192 1.694.191 1.720.376 1.739.815 1.760.092 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.851.172 1.791.031 1.738.055 1.689.608 1.646.405 1.602.430 1.623.880 1.646.214 1.669.192 1.694.191 1.720.376 1.739.815 1.760.092
EU15 Baseline 1.650.787 1.592.816 1.541.280 1.494.450 1.452.231 1.411.586 1.430.765 1.450.535 1.470.792 1.492.163 1.514.274 1.532.172 1.550.732 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.650.787 1.592.816 1.541.280 1.494.451 1.452.231 1.411.586 1.430.765 1.450.535 1.470.792 1.492.163 1.514.274 1.532.172 1.550.732 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.650.787 1.592.816 1.541.280 1.494.451 1.452.231 1.411.586 1.430.765 1.450.535 1.470.792 1.492.163 1.514.274 1.532.172 1.550.732 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.650.787 1.592.816 1.541.280 1.494.451 1.452.231 1.411.586 1.430.765 1.450.535 1.470.792 1.492.163 1.514.274 1.532.172 1.550.732
EU10 Baseline 200.385 198.215 196.775 195.157 194.173 190.843 193.115 195.679 198.400 202.029 206.101 207.643 209.360 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 200.385 198.215 196.775 195.158 194.174 190.844 193.115 195.679 198.400 202.029 206.101 207.643 209.360 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 200.385 198.215 196.775 195.158 194.174 190.844 193.115 195.679 198.400 202.029 206.101 207.643 209.360 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 200.385 198.215 196.775 195.158 194.174 190.844 193.115 195.679 198.400 202.029 206.101 207.643 209.360
AT Baseline 29.397 26.688 24.228 21.995 19.968 18.127 18.350 18.575 18.804 19.035 19.269 19.594 19.932 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 29.397 26.688 24.228 21.995 19.968 18.127 18.350 18.575 18.804 19.035 19.269 19.594 19.932 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 29.397 26.688 24.228 21.995 19.968 18.127 18.350 18.575 18.804 19.035 19.269 19.594 19.932 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 29.397 26.688 24.228 21.995 19.968 18.127 18.350 18.575 18.804 19.035 19.269 19.594 19.932
BE Baseline 26.135 25.308 24.869 24.075 23.593 20.982 20.016 19.222 18.487 18.424 18.652 18.924 19.203 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 26.135 25.308 24.869 24.075 23.593 20.982 20.016 19.223 18.487 18.425 18.653 18.924 19.203 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 26.135 25.308 24.869 24.075 23.593 20.982 20.016 19.223 18.487 18.425 18.653 18.924 19.203 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 26.135 25.308 24.869 24.075 23.593 20.982 20.016 19.223 18.487 18.425 18.653 18.924 19.203
CZ Baseline 26.973 27.847 28.749 29.681 30.642 31.635 32.511 33.412 34.338 35.290 36.268 37.777 39.387 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 26.973 27.847 28.749 29.681 30.642 31.635 32.511 33.412 34.338 35.290 36.268 37.777 39.387 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 26.973 27.847 28.749 29.681 30.642 31.635 32.511 33.412 34.338 35.290 36.268 37.777 39.387 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 26.973 27.847 28.749 29.681 30.642 31.635 32.511 33.412 34.338 35.290 36.268 37.777 39.387
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 209.406 208.064 206.740 205.432 204.141 202.863 205.100 207.361 209.647 211.959 214.296 217.919 221.622 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 209.406 208.064 206.740 205.432 204.141 202.863 205.100 207.361 209.647 211.959 214.296 217.919 221.622 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 209.406 208.064 206.740 205.432 204.141 202.863 205.100 207.361 209.647 211.959 214.296 217.919 221.622 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 209.406 208.064 206.740 205.432 204.141 202.863 205.100 207.361 209.647 211.959 214.296 217.919 221.622
DK Baseline 35.709 33.821 32.033 30.339 28.735 27.216 27.377 27.538 27.701 27.864 28.029 28.059 28.146 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 35.709 33.821 32.033 30.339 28.735 27.216 27.377 27.538 27.701 27.864 28.029 28.059 28.146 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 35.709 33.821 32.033 30.339 28.735 27.216 27.377 27.538 27.701 27.864 28.029 28.059 28.146 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 35.709 33.821 32.033 30.339 28.735 27.216 27.377 27.538 27.701 27.864 28.029 28.059 28.146
ES Baseline 158.339 149.918 141.944 134.394 127.246 120.479 124.448 128.549 132.784 137.160 141.679 143.966 146.352 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 158.339 149.918 141.944 134.394 127.246 120.479 124.448 128.549 132.784 137.160 141.679 143.966 146.352 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 158.339 149.918 141.944 134.394 127.246 120.479 124.448 128.549 132.784 137.160 141.679 143.966 146.352 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 158.339 149.918 141.944 134.394 127.246 120.479 124.448 128.549 132.784 137.160 141.679 143.966 146.352
FI Baseline 56.780 42.672 32.069 24.101 18.112 13.612 13.797 13.984 14.174 14.366 14.561 14.626 14.711 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 56.780 42.672 32.069 24.101 18.112 13.612 13.797 13.984 14.174 14.366 14.561 14.626 14.711 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 56.780 42.672 32.069 24.101 18.112 13.612 13.797 13.984 14.174 14.366 14.561 14.626 14.711 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 56.780 42.672 32.069 24.101 18.112 13.612 13.797 13.984 14.174 14.366 14.561 14.626 14.711
FR Baseline 247.789 242.467 237.455 232.713 228.199 223.872 227.670 231.532 235.459 239.454 243.516 245.749 248.038 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 247.789 242.467 237.455 232.713 228.199 223.872 227.670 231.532 235.459 239.454 243.516 245.749 248.038 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 247.789 242.467 237.455 232.713 228.199 223.872 227.670 231.532 235.459 239.454 243.516 245.749 248.038 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 247.789 242.467 237.455 232.713 228.199 223.872 227.670 231.532 235.459 239.454 243.516 245.749 248.038
GR Baseline 47.107 49.136 51.253 53.462 55.765 58.167 59.928 61.741 63.610 65.535 67.518 67.367 67.286 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 47.107 49.136 51.253 53.462 55.765 58.167 59.928 61.741 63.610 65.535 67.518 67.367 67.286 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 47.107 49.136 51.253 53.462 55.765 58.167 59.928 61.741 63.610 65.535 67.518 67.367 67.286 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 47.107 49.136 51.253 53.462 55.765 58.167 59.928 61.741 63.610 65.535 67.518 67.367 67.286
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 26.404 26.495 26.585 26.677 26.768 26.860 27.439 28.030 28.635 29.252 29.883 30.726 31.673 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 26.404 26.495 26.585 26.677 26.768 26.860 27.439 28.030 28.635 29.252 29.883 30.726 31.673 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 26.404 26.495 26.585 26.677 26.768 26.860 27.439 28.030 28.635 29.252 29.883 30.726 31.673 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 26.404 26.495 26.585 26.677 26.768 26.860 27.439 28.030 28.635 29.252 29.883 30.726 31.673
IE Baseline 17.299 17.687 18.084 18.490 18.906 19.330 19.979 20.650 21.344 22.060 22.801 23.209 23.628 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 17.299 17.687 18.084 18.490 18.906 19.330 19.979 20.650 21.344 22.060 22.801 23.209 23.628 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 17.299 17.687 18.084 18.490 18.906 19.330 19.979 20.650 21.344 22.060 22.801 23.209 23.628 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 17.299 17.687 18.084 18.490 18.906 19.330 19.979 20.650 21.344 22.060 22.801 23.209 23.628
IT Baseline 413.348 397.889 383.008 368.684 354.895 341.622 342.309 342.996 343.685 344.376 345.068 348.407 351.795 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 413.348 397.889 383.008 368.684 354.895 341.622 342.309 342.996 343.685 344.376 345.068 348.407 351.795 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 413.348 397.889 383.008 368.684 354.895 341.622 342.309 342.996 343.685 344.376 345.068 348.407 351.795 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 413.348 397.889 383.008 368.684 354.895 341.622 342.309 342.996 343.685 344.376 345.068 348.407 351.795
LU Baseline 2.371 2.034 1.746 1.498 1.285 1.103 1.119 1.136 1.152 1.170 1.187 1.202 1.218 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.371 2.034 1.746 1.498 1.285 1.103 1.119 1.136 1.152 1.170 1.187 1.202 1.218 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.371 2.034 1.746 1.498 1.285 1.103 1.119 1.136 1.152 1.170 1.187 1.202 1.218 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.371 2.034 1.746 1.498 1.285 1.103 1.119 1.136 1.152 1.170 1.187 1.202 1.218
NL Baseline 62.198 60.882 59.593 58.332 57.097 55.888 56.662 57.446 58.242 59.048 59.866 60.808 61.774 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 62.198 60.882 59.593 58.332 57.097 55.888 56.662 57.446 58.242 59.048 59.866 60.808 61.774 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 62.198 60.882 59.593 58.332 57.097 55.888 56.662 57.446 58.242 59.048 59.866 60.808 61.774 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 62.198 60.882 59.593 58.332 57.097 55.888 56.662 57.446 58.242 59.048 59.866 60.808 61.774
PL Baseline 59.620 60.320 61.029 61.746 62.472 63.206 66.229 69.397 72.716 76.194 79.838 83.045 86.450 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 59.620 60.320 61.029 61.746 62.472 63.206 66.229 69.397 72.716 76.194 79.838 83.045 86.450 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 59.620 60.320 61.029 61.746 62.472 63.206 66.229 69.397 72.716 76.194 79.838 83.045 86.450 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 59.620 60.320 61.029 61.746 62.472 63.206 66.229 69.397 72.716 76.194 79.838 83.045 86.450
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 33.010 35.789 38.803 42.070 45.612 49.452 50.266 51.093 51.934 52.788 53.657 53.485 53.324 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 33.010 35.789 38.803 42.070 45.612 49.452 50.266 51.093 51.934 52.788 53.657 53.485 53.324 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 33.010 35.789 38.803 42.070 45.612 49.452 50.266 51.093 51.934 52.788 53.657 53.485 53.324 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 33.010 35.789 38.803 42.070 45.612 49.452 50.266 51.093 51.934 52.788 53.657 53.485 53.324
SE Baseline 28.876 27.210 25.640 24.161 22.767 21.454 21.748 22.047 22.349 22.656 22.967 23.168 23.412 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 28.876 27.210 25.640 24.161 22.767 21.454 21.748 22.047 22.349 22.656 22.967 23.168 23.412 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 28.876 27.210 25.640 24.161 22.767 21.454 21.748 22.047 22.349 22.656 22.967 23.168 23.412 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 28.876 27.210 25.640 24.161 22.767 21.454 21.748 22.047 22.349 22.656 22.967 23.168 23.412
SI Baseline 5.492 5.455 5.419 5.382 5.346 5.310 5.381 5.453 5.525 5.599 5.673 5.783 5.902 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.492 5.455 5.419 5.382 5.346 5.310 5.381 5.453 5.525 5.599 5.673 5.783 5.902 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.492 5.455 5.419 5.382 5.346 5.310 5.381 5.453 5.525 5.599 5.673 5.783 5.902 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.492 5.455 5.419 5.382 5.346 5.310 5.381 5.453 5.525 5.599 5.673 5.783 5.902
UK Baseline 283.024 273.251 263.815 254.705 245.910 237.418 241.996 246.663 251.420 256.268 261.210 265.688 270.293 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 283.024 273.251 263.815 254.705 245.910 237.418 241.996 246.663 251.420 256.268 261.210 265.688 270.293 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 283.024 273.251 263.815 254.705 245.910 237.418 241.996 246.663 251.420 256.268 261.210 265.688 270.293 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 283.024 273.251 263.815 254.705 245.910 237.418 241.996 246.663 251.420 256.268 261.210 265.688 270.293
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 1.781.247 1.803.329 1.826.402 1.851.256 1.876.538 1.902.255 1.928.416 1.955.029 1.982.105 2.009.652 2.037.679 2.066.196 2.095.213 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.781.247 1.803.329 1.826.402 1.851.600 1.875.912 1.898.904 1.922.091 1.945.404 1.969.346 1.993.744 2.018.693 2.044.298 2.070.608 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.781.247 1.803.329 1.826.402 1.852.158 1.877.809 1.903.226 1.928.957 1.954.973 1.981.611 2.008.766 2.036.473 2.064.798 2.093.755 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.781.247 1.803.329 1.826.402 1.851.490 1.875.969 1.899.980 1.924.333 1.949.005 1.974.272 2.000.067 2.026.449 2.053.487 2.081.207
EU15 Baseline 1.569.988 1.589.980 1.610.761 1.632.450 1.654.513 1.676.957 1.699.791 1.723.022 1.746.658 1.770.708 1.795.179 1.820.081 1.845.421 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.569.988 1.589.980 1.610.761 1.632.704 1.653.781 1.673.596 1.693.571 1.713.643 1.734.274 1.755.312 1.776.853 1.798.996 1.821.785 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.569.988 1.589.980 1.610.761 1.633.231 1.655.562 1.677.633 1.699.958 1.722.509 1.745.597 1.769.127 1.793.139 1.817.696 1.842.814 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.569.988 1.589.980 1.610.761 1.632.611 1.653.860 1.674.639 1.695.704 1.717.039 1.738.895 1.761.216 1.784.058 1.807.489 1.831.532
EU10 Baseline 211.259 213.349 215.641 218.806 222.025 225.297 228.624 232.007 235.447 238.944 242.500 246.115 249.792 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 211.259 213.349 215.641 218.896 222.131 225.308 228.520 231.760 235.072 238.432 241.840 245.302 248.823 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 211.259 213.349 215.641 218.927 222.247 225.593 228.999 232.463 236.014 239.639 243.334 247.102 250.940 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 211.259 213.349 215.641 218.879 222.108 225.341 228.629 231.966 235.377 238.852 242.391 245.998 249.675
AT Baseline 20.281 20.643 21.018 21.320 21.627 21.939 22.257 22.580 22.909 23.243 23.583 23.929 24.281 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 20.281 20.643 21.018 21.375 21.716 22.059 22.405 22.757 23.118 23.490 23.870 24.258 24.653 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 20.281 20.643 21.018 21.362 21.679 21.982 22.290 22.599 22.914 23.230 23.545 23.861 24.177 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 20.281 20.643 21.018 21.364 21.686 22.003 22.325 22.651 22.984 23.323 23.667 24.017 24.370
BE Baseline 19.488 19.780 20.079 20.296 20.516 20.738 20.963 21.191 21.422 21.656 21.893 22.133 22.377 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 19.488 19.780 20.079 20.315 20.525 20.726 20.932 21.147 21.374 21.610 21.854 22.106 22.364 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 19.488 19.780 20.079 20.289 20.442 20.553 20.670 20.792 20.926 21.067 21.214 21.368 21.530 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 19.488 19.780 20.079 20.300 20.483 20.651 20.824 21.004 21.193 21.391 21.596 21.809 22.029
CZ Baseline 41.106 42.939 44.897 45.994 47.119 48.274 49.458 50.674 51.922 53.202 54.515 55.864 57.247 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 41.106 42.939 44.897 46.004 47.137 48.290 49.471 50.679 51.926 53.203 54.511 55.846 57.205 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 41.106 42.939 44.897 45.963 47.023 48.051 49.105 50.182 51.296 52.425 53.563 54.697 55.817 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 41.106 42.939 44.897 45.975 47.065 48.158 49.279 50.426 51.607 52.813 54.039 55.280 56.531
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 225.407 229.278 233.237 236.806 240.437 244.130 247.887 251.708 255.595 259.550 263.574 267.668 271.833 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 225.407 229.278 233.237 236.972 240.670 244.324 248.040 251.828 255.720 259.706 263.787 267.968 272.249 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 225.407 229.278 233.237 236.644 239.634 242.121 244.661 247.246 249.944 252.734 255.630 258.649 261.802 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 225.407 229.278 233.237 236.769 240.097 243.248 246.466 249.756 253.152 256.647 260.247 263.961 267.792
DK Baseline 28.298 28.529 28.860 29.015 29.171 29.329 29.489 29.651 29.814 29.978 30.145 30.312 30.482 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 28.298 28.529 28.860 29.067 29.273 29.471 29.652 29.820 29.988 30.164 30.354 30.559 30.775 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 28.298 28.529 28.860 29.064 29.265 29.456 29.632 29.800 29.969 30.145 30.330 30.523 30.720 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 28.298 28.529 28.860 29.057 29.248 29.432 29.605 29.772 29.938 30.110 30.289 30.475 30.667
ES Baseline 148.843 151.450 154.183 157.343 160.571 163.871 167.243 170.689 174.211 177.811 181.490 185.251 189.094 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 148.843 151.450 154.183 157.355 160.509 163.600 166.735 169.904 173.173 176.511 179.930 183.434 187.026 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 148.843 151.450 154.183 157.440 160.792 164.230 167.720 171.259 174.887 178.593 182.382 186.262 190.234 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 148.843 151.450 154.183 157.357 160.546 163.758 167.028 170.351 173.763 177.250 180.820 184.477 188.225
FI Baseline 14.818 14.951 15.112 15.362 15.617 15.876 16.140 16.409 16.683 16.962 17.246 17.535 17.830 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.818 14.951 15.112 15.407 15.692 15.953 16.210 16.466 16.726 16.993 17.267 17.551 17.843 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.818 14.951 15.112 15.419 15.733 16.039 16.332 16.615 16.890 17.165 17.448 17.746 18.062 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.818 14.951 15.112 15.409 15.704 15.988 16.265 16.538 16.809 17.083 17.363 17.654 17.957
FR Baseline 250.382 252.784 255.246 258.382 261.563 264.791 268.067 271.390 274.763 278.185 281.659 285.184 288.762 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 250.382 252.784 255.246 258.198 260.715 262.744 264.786 266.830 268.972 271.187 273.498 275.937 278.528 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 250.382 252.784 255.246 258.479 261.641 264.754 267.894 271.066 274.325 277.656 281.062 284.557 288.146 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 250.382 252.784 255.246 258.293 261.097 263.720 266.374 269.063 271.837 274.688 277.629 280.680 283.851
GR Baseline 67.274 67.334 67.467 68.489 69.527 70.584 71.658 72.750 73.861 74.990 76.139 77.307 78.495 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 67.274 67.334 67.467 68.526 69.625 70.727 71.839 72.958 74.095 75.245 76.410 77.590 78.785 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 67.274 67.334 67.467 68.535 69.665 70.828 72.008 73.202 74.415 75.646 76.894 78.159 79.442 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 67.274 67.334 67.467 68.523 69.619 70.733 71.863 73.007 74.169 75.349 76.545 77.759 78.989
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 32.729 33.898 35.184 35.901 36.636 37.391 38.166 38.962 39.779 40.618 41.479 42.364 43.273 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 32.729 33.898 35.184 35.881 36.575 37.249 37.931 38.618 39.315 40.013 40.709 41.401 42.111 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 32.729 33.898 35.184 35.905 36.643 37.400 38.175 38.972 39.794 40.639 41.509 42.404 43.336 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 32.729 33.898 35.184 35.887 36.598 37.312 38.041 38.782 39.541 40.314 41.101 41.904 42.736
IE Baseline 24.056 24.496 24.945 25.624 26.323 27.041 27.780 28.540 29.321 30.125 30.952 31.802 32.677 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 24.056 24.496 24.945 25.667 26.399 27.130 27.875 28.632 29.407 30.199 31.008 31.836 32.685 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 24.056 24.496 24.945 25.678 26.440 27.227 28.031 28.852 29.692 30.550 31.427 32.323 33.238 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 24.056 24.496 24.945 25.666 26.402 27.151 27.917 28.699 29.499 30.318 31.155 32.012 32.889
IT Baseline 355.232 358.720 362.258 364.544 366.851 369.181 371.534 373.910 376.309 378.732 381.178 383.649 386.144 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 355.232 358.720 362.258 364.463 366.446 368.141 369.820 371.458 373.157 374.871 376.622 378.426 380.286 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 355.232 358.720 362.258 364.668 367.086 369.522 371.939 374.336 376.778 379.244 381.744 384.291 386.884 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 355.232 358.720 362.258 364.482 366.574 368.568 370.565 372.552 374.588 376.648 378.751 380.904 383.112
LU Baseline 1.234 1.251 1.268 1.280 1.293 1.306 1.319 1.332 1.345 1.359 1.372 1.386 1.400 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.234 1.251 1.268 1.283 1.294 1.304 1.314 1.324 1.335 1.346 1.358 1.371 1.385 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.234 1.251 1.268 1.284 1.299 1.314 1.329 1.344 1.359 1.374 1.389 1.404 1.418 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.234 1.251 1.268 1.283 1.295 1.307 1.319 1.331 1.344 1.357 1.370 1.384 1.398
NL Baseline 62.766 63.785 64.829 65.809 66.805 67.818 68.848 69.897 70.963 72.047 73.150 74.272 75.414 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 62.766 63.785 64.829 65.815 66.788 67.737 68.693 69.648 70.618 71.593 72.579 73.581 74.606 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 62.766 63.785 64.829 65.841 66.869 67.929 69.018 70.133 71.283 72.457 73.649 74.857 76.080 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 62.766 63.785 64.829 65.816 66.798 67.787 68.793 69.813 70.856 71.917 72.995 74.093 75.213
PL Baseline 90.064 93.899 97.968 100.819 103.760 106.793 109.921 113.147 116.474 119.906 123.446 127.097 130.864 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 90.064 93.899 97.968 100.707 103.406 106.009 108.695 111.432 114.215 117.001 119.758 122.478 125.194 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 90.064 93.899 97.968 100.827 103.756 106.734 109.797 112.947 116.193 119.526 122.932 126.411 129.975 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 90.064 93.899 97.968 100.754 103.563 106.381 109.283 112.259 115.309 118.411 121.551 124.723 127.946
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 53.175 53.038 52.913 53.641 54.383 55.138 55.907 56.689 57.485 58.295 59.121 59.961 60.816 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 53.175 53.038 52.913 53.653 54.403 55.135 55.861 56.576 57.301 58.033 58.778 59.543 60.331 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 53.175 53.038 52.913 53.667 54.465 55.294 56.133 56.974 57.825 58.682 59.547 60.422 61.309 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 53.175 53.038 52.913 53.649 54.398 55.153 55.913 56.674 57.447 58.230 59.026 59.840 60.671
SE Baseline 23.704 24.047 24.449 24.828 25.213 25.604 26.003 26.408 26.821 27.240 27.667 28.102 28.544 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 23.704 24.047 24.449 24.838 25.211 25.562 25.922 26.290 26.673 27.065 27.466 27.871 28.280 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 23.704 24.047 24.449 24.856 25.267 25.676 26.084 26.492 26.908 27.334 27.778 28.240 28.720 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 23.704 24.047 24.449 24.842 25.228 25.610 25.996 26.388 26.790 27.202 27.624 28.058 28.502
SI Baseline 6.032 6.172 6.322 6.492 6.667 6.848 7.034 7.226 7.424 7.628 7.839 8.056 8.280 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.032 6.172 6.322 6.485 6.643 6.794 6.951 7.113 7.281 7.457 7.639 7.828 8.026 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.032 6.172 6.322 6.492 6.665 6.840 7.021 7.208 7.403 7.605 7.814 8.032 8.258 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.032 6.172 6.322 6.488 6.654 6.819 6.990 7.167 7.351 7.542 7.741 7.947 8.163
UK Baseline 275.027 279.894 284.897 289.712 294.615 299.610 304.697 309.879 315.157 320.533 326.010 331.588 337.271 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 275.027 279.894 284.897 289.771 294.516 298.983 303.486 308.004 312.617 317.299 322.073 326.964 331.991 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 275.027 279.894 284.897 290.006 295.285 300.708 306.217 311.799 317.481 323.249 329.101 335.036 341.052 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 275.027 279.894 284.897 289.802 294.685 299.531 304.452 309.439 314.526 319.704 324.981 330.367 335.868
vkm of small cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 1.174.162 1.133.366 1.098.292 1.066.770 1.038.857 1.010.641 1.023.852 1.037.649 1.051.858 1.067.459 1.083.857 1.094.877 1.106.424 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.174.162 1.133.366 1.098.292 1.066.771 1.038.857 1.010.641 1.023.852 1.037.649 1.051.859 1.067.460 1.083.858 1.094.878 1.106.425 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.174.162 1.133.366 1.098.292 1.066.771 1.038.857 1.010.641 1.023.852 1.037.649 1.051.859 1.067.460 1.083.858 1.094.878 1.106.425 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.174.162 1.133.366 1.098.292 1.066.771 1.038.857 1.010.641 1.023.852 1.037.649 1.051.859 1.067.460 1.083.858 1.094.878 1.106.425
EU15 Baseline 1.042.640 1.004.181 970.524 940.302 913.241 887.346 899.319 911.680 924.353 937.782 951.703 961.793 972.296 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.042.640 1.004.181 970.524 940.302 913.241 887.346 899.320 911.680 924.353 937.782 951.703 961.793 972.296 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.042.640 1.004.181 970.524 940.302 913.241 887.346 899.320 911.680 924.353 937.782 951.703 961.793 972.296 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.042.640 1.004.181 970.524 940.302 913.241 887.346 899.320 911.680 924.353 937.782 951.703 961.793 972.296
EU10 Baseline 131.522 129.185 127.768 126.468 125.616 123.294 124.533 125.969 127.506 129.678 132.154 133.084 134.128 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 131.522 129.185 127.768 126.469 125.616 123.294 124.533 125.969 127.506 129.678 132.154 133.084 134.128 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 131.522 129.185 127.768 126.469 125.616 123.294 124.533 125.969 127.506 129.678 132.154 133.084 134.128 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 131.522 129.185 127.768 126.469 125.616 123.294 124.533 125.969 127.506 129.678 132.154 133.084 134.128
AT Baseline 18.418 16.720 15.179 13.780 12.510 11.357 11.496 11.638 11.781 11.925 12.072 12.236 12.407 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 18.418 16.720 15.179 13.780 12.510 11.357 11.496 11.638 11.781 11.925 12.072 12.236 12.407 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 18.418 16.720 15.179 13.780 12.510 11.357 11.496 11.638 11.781 11.925 12.072 12.236 12.407 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 18.418 16.720 15.179 13.780 12.510 11.357 11.496 11.638 11.781 11.925 12.072 12.236 12.407
BE Baseline 18.149 17.202 16.879 16.522 16.405 14.957 14.267 13.700 13.175 13.129 13.292 13.474 13.660 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 18.149 17.202 16.879 16.522 16.405 14.957 14.267 13.700 13.175 13.130 13.292 13.474 13.660 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 18.149 17.202 16.879 16.522 16.405 14.957 14.267 13.700 13.175 13.130 13.292 13.474 13.660 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 18.149 17.202 16.879 16.522 16.405 14.957 14.267 13.700 13.175 13.130 13.292 13.474 13.660
CZ Baseline 12.472 12.876 13.293 13.724 14.169 14.627 15.033 15.449 15.878 16.318 16.770 17.281 17.827 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 12.472 12.876 13.293 13.724 14.169 14.627 15.033 15.449 15.878 16.318 16.770 17.281 17.827 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 12.472 12.876 13.293 13.724 14.169 14.627 15.033 15.449 15.878 16.318 16.770 17.281 17.827 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 12.472 12.876 13.293 13.724 14.169 14.627 15.033 15.449 15.878 16.318 16.770 17.281 17.827
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 141.226 140.321 139.428138.546 137.675 136.813 138.322 139.847 141.389 142.948 144.524 146.877 149.282 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 141.226 140.321 139.428 138.546 137.675 136.813 138.322 139.847 141.389 142.948 144.524 146.877 149.282 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 141.226 140.321 139.428 138.546 137.675 136.813 138.322 139.847 141.389 142.948 144.524 146.877 149.282 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 141.226 140.321 139.428 138.546 137.675 136.813 138.322 139.847 141.389 142.948 144.524 146.877 149.282
DK Baseline 24.017 22.747 21.544 20.405 19.326 18.305 18.413 18.521 18.631 18.741 18.851 18.848 18.888 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 24.017 22.747 21.544 20.405 19.326 18.305 18.413 18.521 18.631 18.741 18.851 18.848 18.888 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 24.017 22.747 21.544 20.405 19.326 18.305 18.413 18.521 18.631 18.741 18.851 18.848 18.888 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 24.017 22.747 21.544 20.405 19.326 18.305 18.413 18.521 18.631 18.741 18.851 18.848 18.888
ES Baseline 109.114 103.311 97.81692.614 87.688 83.024 85.760 88.585 91.504 94.519 97.634 99.047 100.521 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 109.114 103.311 97.816 92.614 87.688 83.024 85.760 88.585 91.504 94.519 97.634 99.047 100.521 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 109.114 103.311 97.816 92.614 87.688 83.024 85.760 88.585 91.504 94.519 97.634 99.047 100.521 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 109.114 103.311 97.816 92.614 87.688 83.024 85.760 88.585 91.504 94.519 97.634 99.047 100.521
FI Baseline 41.622 31.280 23.508 17.667 13.277 9.978 10.114 10.251 10.390 10.531 10.674 10.713 10.766 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 41.622 31.280 23.508 17.667 13.277 9.978 10.114 10.251 10.390 10.531 10.674 10.713 10.766 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 41.622 31.280 23.508 17.667 13.277 9.978 10.114 10.251 10.390 10.531 10.674 10.713 10.766 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 41.622 31.280 23.508 17.667 13.277 9.978 10.114 10.251 10.390 10.531 10.674 10.713 10.766
FR Baseline 142.666 139.602 136.717133.986 131.387 128.896 131.083 133.306 135.568 137.867 140.206 141.370 142.566 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 142.666 139.602 136.717 133.986 131.387 128.896 131.083 133.306 135.568 137.867 140.206 141.370 142.566 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 142.666 139.602 136.717 133.986 131.387 128.896 131.083 133.306 135.568 137.867 140.206 141.370 142.566 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 142.666 139.602 136.717 133.986 131.387 128.896 131.083 133.306 135.568 137.867 140.206 141.370 142.566
GR Baseline 25.389 26.483 27.624 28.814 30.056 31.351 32.299 33.277 34.284 35.322 36.390 36.226 36.104 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 25.389 26.483 27.624 28.814 30.056 31.351 32.299 33.277 34.284 35.322 36.390 36.226 36.104 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 25.389 26.483 27.624 28.814 30.056 31.351 32.299 33.277 34.284 35.322 36.390 36.226 36.104 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 25.389 26.483 27.624 28.814 30.056 31.351 32.299 33.277 34.284 35.322 36.390 36.226 36.104
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 11.820 11.860 11.901 11.942 11.983 12.024 12.283 12.548 12.818 13.095 13.377 13.655 13.973 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.820 11.860 11.901 11.942 11.983 12.024 12.283 12.548 12.818 13.095 13.377 13.655 13.973 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.820 11.860 11.901 11.942 11.983 12.024 12.283 12.548 12.818 13.095 13.377 13.655 13.973 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.820 11.860 11.901 11.942 11.983 12.024 12.283 12.548 12.818 13.095 13.377 13.655 13.973
IE Baseline 10.625 10.864 11.108 11.357 11.612 11.873 12.272 12.684 13.110 13.550 14.005 14.236 14.473 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.625 10.864 11.108 11.357 11.612 11.873 12.272 12.684 13.110 13.550 14.005 14.236 14.473 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.625 10.864 11.108 11.357 11.612 11.873 12.272 12.684 13.110 13.550 14.005 14.236 14.473 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.625 10.864 11.108 11.357 11.612 11.873 12.272 12.684 13.110 13.550 14.005 14.236 14.473
IT Baseline 252.146 242.716 233.638224.900 216.489 208.392 208.811 209.231 209.651 210.072 210.494 212.283 214.099 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 252.146 242.716 233.638 224.900 216.489 208.392 208.811 209.231 209.651 210.072 210.494 212.283 214.099 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 252.146 242.716 233.638 224.900 216.489 208.392 208.811 209.231 209.651 210.072 210.494 212.283 214.099 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 252.146 242.716 233.638 224.900 216.489 208.392 208.811 209.231 209.651 210.072 210.494 212.283 214.099
LU Baseline 1.749 1.501 1.288 1.105 948 813 825 838 850 863 876 887 898 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.749 1.501 1.288 1.105 948 813 825 838 850 863 876 887 898 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.749 1.501 1.288 1.105 948 813 825 838 850 863 876 887 898 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.749 1.501 1.288 1.105 948 813 825 838 850 863 876 887 898
NL Baseline 45.080 44.126 43.192 42.277 41.382 40.506 41.067 41.636 42.212 42.797 43.389 44.025 44.677 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 45.080 44.126 43.192 42.277 41.382 40.506 41.067 41.636 42.212 42.797 43.389 44.025 44.677 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 45.080 44.126 43.192 42.277 41.382 40.506 41.067 41.636 42.212 42.797 43.389 44.025 44.677 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 45.080 44.126 43.192 42.277 41.382 40.506 41.067 41.636 42.212 42.797 43.389 44.025 44.677
PL Baseline 27.772 28.098 28.428 28.762 29.100 29.442 30.850 32.326 33.872 35.492 37.190 38.365 39.605 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 27.772 28.098 28.428 28.762 29.100 29.442 30.850 32.326 33.872 35.492 37.190 38.365 39.605 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 27.772 28.098 28.428 28.762 29.100 29.442 30.850 32.326 33.872 35.492 37.190 38.365 39.605 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 27.772 28.098 28.428 28.762 29.100 29.442 30.850 32.326 33.872 35.492 37.190 38.365 39.605
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 22.326 24.206 26.244 28.453 30.849 33.446 33.997 34.556 35.125 35.703 36.290 36.152 36.022 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 22.326 24.206 26.244 28.453 30.849 33.446 33.997 34.556 35.125 35.703 36.290 36.152 36.022 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 22.326 24.206 26.244 28.453 30.849 33.446 33.997 34.556 35.125 35.703 36.290 36.152 36.022 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 22.326 24.206 26.244 28.453 30.849 33.446 33.997 34.556 35.125 35.703 36.290 36.152 36.022
SE Baseline 19.230 18.121 17.075 16.090 15.162 14.287 14.483 14.682 14.884 15.088 15.295 15.404 15.543 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 19.230 18.121 17.075 16.090 15.162 14.287 14.483 14.682 14.884 15.088 15.295 15.404 15.543 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 19.230 18.121 17.075 16.090 15.162 14.287 14.483 14.682 14.884 15.088 15.295 15.404 15.543 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 19.230 18.121 17.075 16.090 15.162 14.287 14.483 14.682 14.884 15.088 15.295 15.404 15.543
SI Baseline 2.537 2.520 2.503 2.487 2.470 2.453 2.486 2.519 2.553 2.587 2.621 2.669 2.722 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.537 2.520 2.503 2.487 2.470 2.453 2.486 2.519 2.553 2.587 2.621 2.669 2.722 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.537 2.520 2.503 2.487 2.470 2.453 2.486 2.519 2.553 2.587 2.621 2.669 2.722 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.537 2.520 2.503 2.487 2.470 2.453 2.486 2.519 2.553 2.587 2.621 2.669 2.722
UK Baseline 170.882 164.982 159.284153.784 148.474 143.347 146.111 148.928 151.800 154.728 157.712 160.015 162.387 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 170.882 164.982 159.284 153.784 148.474 143.347 146.111 148.928 151.800 154.728 157.712 160.015 162.387 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 170.882 164.982 159.284 153.784 148.474 143.347 146.111 148.928 151.800 154.728 157.712 160.015 162.387 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 170.882 164.982 159.284 153.784 148.474 143.347 146.111 148.928 151.800 154.728 157.712 160.015 162.387
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 1.118.523 1.131.203 1.144.509 1.159.368 1.174.479 1.189.844 1.205.470 1.221.362 1.237.524 1.253.963 1.270.683 1.287.689 1.304.989 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.118.523 1.131.204 1.144.509 1.160.161 1.175.999 1.192.010 1.208.207 1.224.588 1.241.339 1.258.408 1.275.809 1.293.573 1.311.696 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.118.523 1.131.204 1.144.509 1.159.326 1.173.293 1.186.100 1.199.018 1.211.989 1.225.341 1.238.951 1.252.886 1.267.217 1.281.985 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.118.523 1.131.204 1.144.509 1.159.510 1.174.114 1.188.418 1.202.922 1.217.613 1.232.660 1.248.020 1.263.729 1.279.829 1.296.334
EU15 Baseline 983.232 994.628 1.006.519 1.019.473 1.032.647 1.046.045 1.059.672 1.073.532 1.087.630 1.101.969 1.116.556 1.131.396 1.146.492 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 983.232 994.628 1.006.519 1.020.172 1.033.979 1.047.921 1.062.013 1.076.252 1.090.806 1.105.632 1.120.746 1.136.179 1.151.932 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 983.232 994.628 1.006.519 1.019.400 1.031.480 1.042.471 1.053.552 1.064.672 1.076.130 1.087.822 1.099.812 1.112.165 1.124.918 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 983.232 994.628 1.006.519 1.019.573 1.032.246 1.044.623 1.057.167 1.069.869 1.082.882 1.096.170 1.109.769 1.123.717 1.138.029
EU10 Baseline 135.290 136.575 137.990 139.895 141.831 143.799 145.798 147.830 149.895 151.993 154.126 156.294 158.497 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 135.291 136.576 137.990 139.989 142.020 144.089 146.194 148.336 150.533 152.776 155.063 157.393 159.764 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 135.291 136.576 137.990 139.926 141.813 143.629 145.466 147.317 149.211 151.129 153.075 155.053 157.067 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 135.291 136.576 137.990 139.937 141.867 143.795 145.755 147.744 149.778 151.850 153.960 156.112 158.305
AT Baseline 12.585 12.769 12.960 13.132 13.307 13.485 13.666 13.849 14.036 14.225 14.418 14.614 14.813 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 12.585 12.769 12.960 13.165 13.360 13.556 13.753 13.954 14.160 14.371 14.587 14.808 15.032 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 12.585 12.769 12.960 13.158 13.338 13.510 13.685 13.860 14.038 14.217 14.395 14.573 14.751 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 12.585 12.769 12.960 13.159 13.342 13.523 13.706 13.891 14.080 14.272 14.468 14.665 14.865
BE Baseline 13.851 14.046 14.246 14.394 14.544 14.696 14.850 15.006 15.163 15.323 15.485 15.648 15.814 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.851 14.046 14.246 14.408 14.551 14.688 14.829 14.976 15.131 15.292 15.459 15.630 15.806 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.851 14.046 14.246 14.389 14.494 14.568 14.648 14.730 14.821 14.917 15.016 15.120 15.230 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.851 14.046 14.246 14.397 14.522 14.636 14.754 14.877 15.006 15.141 15.280 15.425 15.576
CZ Baseline 18.411 19.035 19.702 20.144 20.597 21.061 21.537 22.024 22.523 23.035 23.559 24.096 24.647 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 18.411 19.035 19.702 20.148 20.605 21.068 21.542 22.025 22.524 23.034 23.555 24.086 24.626 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 18.411 19.035 19.702 20.130 20.554 20.961 21.378 21.804 22.244 22.689 23.137 23.580 24.016 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 18.411 19.035 19.702 20.136 20.573 21.009 21.456 21.913 22.383 22.862 23.347 23.838 24.331
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 151.740 154.252 156.821159.135 161.488 163.879 166.311 168.784 171.298 173.854 176.454 179.097 181.786 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 151.740 154.252 156.821 159.244 161.639 164.001 166.403 168.851 171.365 173.940 176.575 179.274 182.037 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 151.740 154.252 156.821 159.026 160.951 162.539 164.163 165.815 167.540 169.325 171.178 173.111 175.132 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 151.740 154.252 156.821 159.110 161.260 163.291 165.364 167.483 169.672 171.923 174.242 176.635 179.103
DK Baseline 18.978 19.129 19.357 19.456 19.557 19.658 19.761 19.864 19.969 20.075 20.182 20.290 20.399 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 18.978 19.129 19.357 19.489 19.620 19.746 19.861 19.968 20.075 20.187 20.309 20.439 20.577 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 18.978 19.129 19.357 19.487 19.615 19.736 19.849 19.956 20.064 20.177 20.295 20.419 20.545 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 18.978 19.129 19.357 19.482 19.604 19.722 19.832 19.939 20.045 20.155 20.270 20.389 20.512
ES Baseline 102.061 103.672 105.358107.444 109.575 111.751 113.974 116.245 118.564 120.933 123.353 125.826 128.352 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 102.061 103.672 105.358 107.508 109.720 111.986 114.286 116.617 119.006 121.444 123.936 126.486 129.095 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 102.061 103.672 105.358 107.453 109.534 111.573 113.639 115.728 117.881 120.079 122.328 124.633 126.994 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 102.061 103.672 105.358 107.454 109.558 111.676 113.832 116.022 118.268 120.563 122.912 125.317 127.779
FI Baseline 10.836 10.923 11.031 11.208 11.389 11.572 11.760 11.950 12.144 12.342 12.543 12.748 12.956 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.836 10.923 11.031 11.248 11.471 11.688 11.895 12.095 12.290 12.485 12.685 12.896 13.119 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.836 10.923 11.031 11.240 11.442 11.627 11.809 11.990 12.174 12.363 12.557 12.758 12.964 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.836 10.923 11.031 11.241 11.450 11.651 11.848 12.041 12.233 12.427 12.625 12.831 13.046
FR Baseline 143.793 145.053 146.347148.101 149.880 151.684 153.514 155.371 157.255 159.165 161.104 163.071 165.067 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 143.793 145.053 146.347 148.155 149.922 151.662 153.416 155.188 157.008 158.868 160.768 162.718 164.719 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 143.793 145.053 146.347 147.998 149.406 150.540 151.683 152.825 154.022 155.259 156.550 157.911 159.357 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 143.793 145.053 146.347 148.051 149.619 151.086 152.570 154.072 155.622 157.214 158.856 160.558 162.327
GR Baseline 36.025 35.989 35.997 36.489 36.989 37.497 38.013 38.537 39.070 39.612 40.163 40.722 41.291 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 36.025 35.989 35.997 36.513 37.059 37.621 38.191 38.767 39.352 39.944 40.545 41.153 41.769 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 36.025 35.989 35.997 36.508 37.038 37.569 38.104 38.642 39.188 39.740 40.299 40.864 41.436 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 36.025 35.989 35.997 36.507 37.036 37.573 38.117 38.668 39.227 39.794 40.369 40.951 41.541
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 14.330 14.729 15.170 15.428 15.692 15.963 16.241 16.525 16.817 17.116 17.423 17.738 18.060 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.330 14.729 15.170 15.430 15.696 15.967 16.246 16.531 16.825 17.128 17.438 17.758 18.091 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.330 14.729 15.170 15.419 15.666 15.901 16.139 16.377 16.618 16.858 17.096 17.330 17.571 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.330 14.729 15.170 15.422 15.676 15.929 16.187 16.449 16.716 16.988 17.264 17.545 17.836
IE Baseline 14.716 14.966 15.221 15.624 16.039 16.465 16.903 17.353 17.816 18.293 18.782 19.286 19.804 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.716 14.966 15.221 15.655 16.106 16.571 17.047 17.532 18.028 18.536 19.054 19.583 20.124 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.716 14.966 15.221 15.649 16.082 16.516 16.957 17.406 17.865 18.334 18.814 19.305 19.808 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.716 14.966 15.221 15.648 16.084 16.528 16.981 17.444 17.918 18.402 18.898 19.405 19.924
IT Baseline 215.944 217.817 219.720220.949 222.191 223.445 224.712 225.991 227.283 228.588 229.906 231.237 232.581 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 215.944 217.817 219.720 221.021 222.326 223.640 224.942 226.232 227.547 228.875 230.222 231.596 232.995 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 215.944 217.817 219.720 220.901 221.952 222.833 223.705 224.552 225.435 226.326 227.239 228.182 229.157 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 215.944 217.817 219.720 220.913 222.027 223.084 224.142 225.193 226.272 227.366 228.482 229.628 230.805
LU Baseline 909 921 934 943 952 961 971 981 991 1.001 1.011 1.021 1.031 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 909 921 934 945 956 967 978 989 1.000 1.011 1.022 1.033 1.044 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 909 921 934 944 953 960 968 975 983 992 1.001 1.011 1.021 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 909 921 934 945 954 962 971 980 989 999 1.009 1.019 1.029
NL Baseline 45.347 46.035 46.741 47.425 48.120 48.827 49.545 50.276 51.019 51.774 52.543 53.324 54.118 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 45.347 46.035 46.741 47.447 48.164 48.903 49.661 50.438 51.239 52.056 52.886 53.726 54.577 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 45.347 46.035 46.741 47.430 48.107 48.769 49.435 50.101 50.776 51.455 52.141 52.838 53.552 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 45.347 46.035 46.741 47.430 48.115 48.804 49.505 50.216 50.943 51.681 52.432 53.197 53.976
PL Baseline 40.915 42.297 43.756 44.906 46.090 47.308 48.561 49.851 51.178 52.544 53.949 55.396 56.886 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 40.915 42.297 43.756 44.910 46.088 47.280 48.503 49.758 51.048 52.369 53.714 55.084 56.482 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 40.915 42.297 43.756 44.854 45.927 46.949 48.002 49.071 50.154 51.231 52.289 53.325 54.352 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 40.915 42.297 43.756 44.876 45.999 47.119 48.270 49.447 50.650 51.868 53.096 54.331 55.582
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 35.901 35.789 35.686 36.127 36.576 37.033 37.497 37.970 38.450 38.939 39.436 39.942 40.456 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 35.901 35.789 35.686 36.144 36.629 37.134 37.643 38.153 38.669 39.187 39.709 40.237 40.771 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 35.901 35.789 35.686 36.135 36.589 37.031 37.467 37.895 38.330 38.767 39.213 39.671 40.142 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 35.901 35.789 35.686 36.132 36.586 37.042 37.501 37.959 38.425 38.896 39.374 39.863 40.362
SE Baseline 15.715 15.922 16.167 16.406 16.649 16.896 17.147 17.402 17.661 17.925 18.194 18.467 18.744 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 15.715 15.922 16.167 16.424 16.683 16.940 17.197 17.454 17.716 17.984 18.263 18.553 18.854 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 15.715 15.922 16.167 16.412 16.647 16.869 17.095 17.327 17.568 17.814 18.066 18.321 18.578 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 15.715 15.922 16.167 16.415 16.659 16.899 17.142 17.389 17.642 17.901 18.166 18.439 18.718
SI Baseline 2.779 2.841 2.908 2.986 3.065 3.148 3.233 3.320 3.411 3.504 3.600 3.699 3.801 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.779 2.841 2.908 2.986 3.065 3.145 3.228 3.313 3.402 3.494 3.589 3.689 3.792 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.779 2.841 2.908 2.983 3.055 3.124 3.196 3.269 3.347 3.427 3.510 3.596 3.687 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.779 2.841 2.908 2.984 3.060 3.135 3.213 3.294 3.378 3.465 3.556 3.650 3.749
UK Baseline 164.830 167.345 169.933172.639 175.393 178.196 181.049 183.953 186.910 189.920 192.984 196.103 199.279 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 164.830 167.345 169.933 172.806 175.772 178.817 181.909 185.038 188.222 191.453 194.728 198.048 201.411 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 164.830 167.345 169.933 172.672 175.332 177.829 180.346 182.869 185.444 188.056 190.720 193.447 196.250 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 164.830 167.345 169.933 172.690 175.430 178.146 180.903 183.694 186.541 189.436 192.386 195.395 198.467
pkm of medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 2.259.619 2.359.592 2.463.791 2.578.606 2.702.176 2.833.122 2.877.169 2.920.880 2.963.043 3.007.286 3.050.845 3.090.658 3.131.952 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.259.619 2.359.593 2.463.792 2.578.607 2.702.178 2.833.124 2.877.170 2.920.882 2.963.044 3.007.287 3.050.846 3.090.659 3.131.953 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.259.619 2.359.593 2.463.792 2.578.607 2.702.178 2.833.124 2.877.170 2.920.882 2.963.044 3.007.287 3.050.846 3.090.659 3.131.953 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.259.619 2.359.593 2.463.792 2.578.607 2.702.178 2.833.124 2.877.170 2.920.882 2.963.044 3.007.287 3.050.846 3.090.659 3.131.953
EU15 Baseline 2.001.076 2.088.543 2.181.977 2.284.725 2.396.478 2.517.220 2.554.683 2.592.327 2.629.612 2.668.182 2.706.798 2.742.446 2.779.290 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.001.076 2.088.544 2.181.978 2.284.726 2.396.479 2.517.221 2.554.683 2.592.328 2.629.613 2.668.183 2.706.798 2.742.447 2.779.291 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.001.076 2.088.544 2.181.978 2.284.726 2.396.479 2.517.221 2.554.683 2.592.328 2.629.613 2.668.183 2.706.798 2.742.447 2.779.291 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.001.076 2.088.544 2.181.978 2.284.726 2.396.479 2.517.221 2.554.683 2.592.328 2.629.613 2.668.183 2.706.798 2.742.447 2.779.291
EU10 Baseline 258.543 271.049 281.814 293.881 305.698 315.902 322.486 328.553 333.431 339.104 344.047 348.212 352.661 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 258.543 271.050 281.814 293.882 305.699 315.903 322.486 328.554 333.431 339.105 344.048 348.212 352.662 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 258.543 271.050 281.814 293.882 305.699 315.903 322.486 328.554 333.431 339.105 344.048 348.212 352.662 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 258.543 271.050 281.814 293.882 305.699 315.903 322.486 328.554 333.431 339.105 344.048 348.212 352.662
AT Baseline 40.651 42.555 44.547 46.633 48.817 51.103 51.731 52.366 53.010 53.661 54.321 55.239 56.190 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 40.651 42.555 44.547 46.633 48.817 51.103 51.731 52.366 53.010 53.661 54.321 55.239 56.190 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 40.651 42.555 44.547 46.633 48.817 51.103 51.731 52.366 53.010 53.661 54.321 55.239 56.190 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 40.651 42.555 44.547 46.633 48.817 51.103 51.731 52.366 53.010 53.661 54.321 55.239 56.190
BE Baseline 71.330 75.598 78.143 81.443 84.204 85.290 87.981 90.202 91.400 93.202 94.355 95.731 97.140 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 71.330 75.599 78.143 81.443 84.205 85.290 87.981 90.203 91.401 93.203 94.356 95.732 97.140 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 71.330 75.599 78.143 81.443 84.205 85.290 87.981 90.203 91.401 93.203 94.356 95.732 97.140 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 71.330 75.599 78.143 81.443 84.205 85.290 87.981 90.203 91.401 93.203 94.356 95.732 97.140
CZ Baseline 27.527 28.418 29.339 30.289 31.270 32.283 33.178 34.097 35.042 36.013 37.012 38.552 40.195 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 27.527 28.418 29.339 30.289 31.270 32.283 33.178 34.097 35.042 36.013 37.012 38.552 40.195 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 27.527 28.418 29.339 30.289 31.270 32.283 33.178 34.097 35.042 36.013 37.012 38.552 40.195 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 27.527 28.418 29.339 30.289 31.270 32.283 33.178 34.097 35.042 36.013 37.012 38.552 40.195
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 610.828 615.495 620.286625.202 630.244 635.414 642.420 649.503 656.664 663.904 671.224 682.571 694.170 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 610.828 615.495 620.286 625.202 630.244 635.414 642.420 649.503 656.664 663.904 671.224 682.571 694.170 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 610.828 615.495 620.286 625.202 630.244 635.414 642.420 649.503 656.664 663.904 671.224 682.571 694.170 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 610.828 615.495 620.286 625.202 630.244 635.414 642.420 649.503 656.664 663.904 671.224 682.571 694.170
DK Baseline 20.357 22.271 24.366 26.658 29.165 31.908 32.096 32.286 32.476 32.668 32.860 32.896 32.998 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 20.357 22.271 24.366 26.658 29.165 31.908 32.096 32.286 32.476 32.668 32.860 32.896 32.998 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 20.357 22.271 24.366 26.658 29.165 31.908 32.096 32.286 32.476 32.668 32.860 32.896 32.998 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 20.357 22.271 24.366 26.658 29.165 31.908 32.096 32.286 32.476 32.668 32.860 32.896 32.998
ES Baseline 103.058 115.273 128.934144.215 161.308 180.425 186.370 192.511 198.854 205.406 212.174 215.599 219.172 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 103.058 115.273 128.934 144.215 161.308 180.425 186.370 192.511 198.854 205.406 212.174 215.599 219.172 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 103.058 115.273 128.934 144.215 161.308 180.425 186.370 192.511 198.854 205.406 212.174 215.599 219.172 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 103.058 115.273 128.934 144.215 161.308 180.425 186.370 192.511 198.854 205.406 212.174 215.599 219.172
FI Baseline 14.817 18.257 22.497 27.720 34.157 42.088 42.659 43.238 43.824 44.419 45.021 45.224 45.487 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.817 18.257 22.497 27.720 34.157 42.088 42.659 43.238 43.824 44.419 45.021 45.224 45.487 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.817 18.257 22.497 27.720 34.157 42.088 42.659 43.238 43.824 44.419 45.021 45.224 45.487 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.817 18.257 22.497 27.720 34.157 42.088 42.659 43.238 43.824 44.419 45.021 45.224 45.487
FR Baseline 400.025 412.849 426.755441.817 458.114 475.728 483.798 492.005 500.351 508.839 517.471 522.217 527.080 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 400.025 412.849 426.755 441.817 458.114 475.728 483.798 492.005 500.351 508.839 517.471 522.217 527.080 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 400.025 412.849 426.755 441.817 458.114 475.728 483.798 492.005 500.351 508.839 517.471 522.217 527.080 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 400.025 412.849 426.755 441.817 458.114 475.728 483.798 492.005 500.351 508.839 517.471 522.217 527.080
GR Baseline 11.850 13.009 14.281 15.677 17.210 18.893 19.464 20.053 20.660 21.285 21.930 21.881 21.854 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.850 13.009 14.281 15.677 17.210 18.893 19.464 20.053 20.660 21.285 21.930 21.881 21.854 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.850 13.009 14.281 15.677 17.210 18.893 19.464 20.053 20.660 21.285 21.930 21.881 21.854 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.850 13.009 14.281 15.677 17.210 18.893 19.464 20.053 20.660 21.285 21.930 21.881 21.854
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 19.396 19.462 19.529 19.596 19.663 19.730 20.156 20.590 21.034 21.488 21.951 22.570 23.266 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 19.396 19.462 19.529 19.596 19.663 19.730 20.156 20.590 21.034 21.488 21.951 22.570 23.266 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 19.396 19.462 19.529 19.596 19.663 19.730 20.156 20.590 21.034 21.488 21.951 22.570 23.266 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 19.396 19.462 19.529 19.596 19.663 19.730 20.156 20.590 21.034 21.488 21.951 22.570 23.266
IE Baseline 6.475 7.555 8.815 10.284 11.999 14.000 14.470 14.956 15.458 15.977 16.513 16.809 17.112 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.475 7.555 8.815 10.284 11.999 14.000 14.470 14.956 15.458 15.977 16.513 16.809 17.112 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.475 7.555 8.815 10.284 11.999 14.000 14.470 14.956 15.458 15.977 16.513 16.809 17.112 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.475 7.555 8.815 10.284 11.999 14.000 14.470 14.956 15.458 15.977 16.513 16.809 17.112
IT Baseline 222.291 248.090 276.883309.017 344.881 384.908 385.681 386.456 387.232 388.010 388.790 392.552 396.369 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 222.291 248.090 276.883 309.017 344.881 384.908 385.681 386.456 387.232 388.010 388.790 392.552 396.369 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 222.291 248.090 276.883 309.017 344.881 384.908 385.681 386.456 387.232 388.010 388.790 392.552 396.369 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 222.291 248.090 276.883 309.017 344.881 384.908 385.681 386.456 387.232 388.010 388.790 392.552 396.369
LU Baseline 2.687 2.907 3.144 3.400 3.677 3.977 4.037 4.097 4.157 4.219 4.282 4.337 4.394 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.687 2.907 3.144 3.400 3.677 3.977 4.037 4.097 4.157 4.219 4.282 4.337 4.394 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.687 2.907 3.144 3.400 3.677 3.977 4.037 4.097 4.157 4.219 4.282 4.337 4.394 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.687 2.907 3.144 3.400 3.677 3.977 4.037 4.097 4.157 4.219 4.282 4.337 4.394
NL Baseline 69.950 72.766 75.696 78.744 81.914 85.212 86.392 87.588 88.800 90.030 91.276 92.712 94.186 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 69.950 72.766 75.696 78.744 81.914 85.212 86.392 87.588 88.800 90.030 91.276 92.712 94.186 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 69.950 72.766 75.696 78.744 81.914 85.212 86.392 87.588 88.800 90.030 91.276 92.712 94.186 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 69.950 72.766 75.696 78.744 81.914 85.212 86.392 87.588 88.800 90.030 91.276 92.712 94.186
PL Baseline 52.435 57.955 64.057 70.801 78.255 86.494 90.631 94.966 99.508 104.268 109.255 113.643 118.302 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 52.435 57.955 64.057 70.801 78.255 86.494 90.631 94.966 99.508 104.268 109.255 113.643 118.302 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 52.435 57.955 64.057 70.801 78.255 86.494 90.631 94.966 99.508 104.268 109.255 113.643 118.302 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 52.435 57.955 64.057 70.801 78.255 86.494 90.631 94.966 99.508 104.268 109.255 113.643 118.302
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 28.465 30.006 31.630 33.341 35.146 37.048 37.657 38.277 38.907 39.547 40.197 40.069 39.948 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 28.465 30.006 31.630 33.341 35.146 37.048 37.657 38.277 38.907 39.547 40.197 40.069 39.948 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 28.465 30.006 31.630 33.341 35.146 37.048 37.657 38.277 38.907 39.547 40.197 40.069 39.948 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 28.465 30.006 31.630 33.341 35.146 37.048 37.657 38.277 38.907 39.547 40.197 40.069 39.948
SE Baseline 58.875 60.887 62.967 65.119 67.345 69.646 70.602 71.570 72.552 73.548 74.557 75.209 76.002 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 58.875 60.887 62.967 65.119 67.345 69.646 70.602 71.570 72.552 73.548 74.557 75.209 76.002 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 58.875 60.887 62.967 65.119 67.345 69.646 70.602 71.570 72.552 73.548 74.557 75.209 76.002 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 58.875 60.887 62.967 65.119 67.345 69.646 70.602 71.570 72.552 73.548 74.557 75.209 76.002
SI Baseline 4.886 4.853 4.820 4.788 4.756 4.724 4.787 4.850 4.915 4.980 5.047 5.144 5.250 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.886 4.853 4.820 4.788 4.756 4.724 4.787 4.850 4.915 4.980 5.047 5.144 5.250 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.886 4.853 4.820 4.788 4.756 4.724 4.787 4.850 4.915 4.980 5.047 5.144 5.250 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.886 4.853 4.820 4.788 4.756 4.724 4.787 4.850 4.915 4.980 5.047 5.144 5.250
UK Baseline 339.415 351.026 363.035375.454 388.298 401.582 409.326 417.220 425.265 433.466 441.825 449.400 457.188 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 339.415 351.026 363.035 375.454 388.298 401.582 409.326 417.220 425.265 433.466 441.825 449.400 457.188 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 339.415 351.026 363.035 375.454 388.298 401.582 409.326 417.220 425.265 433.466 441.825 449.400 457.188 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 339.415 351.026 363.035 375.454 388.298 401.582 409.326 417.220 425.265 433.466 441.825 449.400 457.188
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 3.174.808 3.219.324 3.265.617 3.311.013 3.357.178 3.404.127 3.451.877 3.500.443 3.549.840 3.600.086 3.651.197 3.703.191 3.756.085 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.174.809 3.219.325 3.265.619 3.314.269 3.366.971 3.421.867 3.477.518 3.533.898 3.590.722 3.648.112 3.705.981 3.764.290 3.823.069 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.174.809 3.219.325 3.265.619 3.311.300 3.357.352 3.401.380 3.445.840 3.490.625 3.535.906 3.581.653 3.627.973 3.674.976 3.722.827 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.174.809 3.219.325 3.265.619 3.312.415 3.361.270 3.410.545 3.460.572 3.511.308 3.562.668 3.614.698 3.667.363 3.720.662 3.774.634
EU15 Baseline 2.817.393 2.856.829 2.897.689 2.938.024 2.979.047 3.020.773 3.063.215 3.106.387 3.150.304 3.194.982 3.240.434 3.286.677 3.333.727 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.817.394 2.856.829 2.897.690 2.940.885 2.987.603 3.036.272 3.085.623 3.135.645 3.186.089 3.237.058 3.288.468 3.340.273 3.392.496 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.817.394 2.856.829 2.897.690 2.938.152 2.978.763 3.017.470 3.056.594 3.096.045 3.135.987 3.176.393 3.217.361 3.258.982 3.301.398 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.817.394 2.856.829 2.897.690 2.939.214 2.982.470 3.026.082 3.070.383 3.115.337 3.160.881 3.207.047 3.253.806 3.301.150 3.349.116
EU10 Baseline 357.415 362.495 367.928 372.989 378.130 383.354 388.662 394.055 399.536 405.104 410.763 416.514 422.358 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 357.416 362.495 367.929 373.384 379.367 385.595 391.895 398.253 404.632 411.053 417.513 424.017 430.574 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 357.416 362.495 367.929 373.148 378.589 383.910 389.247 394.581 399.920 405.260 410.612 415.994 421.430 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 357.416 362.495 367.929 373.200 378.800 384.463 390.190 395.970 401.787 407.651 413.558 419.512 425.518
AT Baseline 57.175 58.195 59.252 60.103 60.969 61.850 62.745 63.656 64.583 65.526 66.484 67.460 68.452 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 57.175 58.195 59.252 60.127 61.098 62.067 63.046 64.035 65.032 66.037 67.052 68.074 69.108 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 57.175 58.195 59.252 60.099 61.013 61.897 62.790 63.695 64.611 65.539 66.481 67.436 68.407 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 57.175 58.195 59.252 60.111 61.056 61.999 62.956 63.925 64.906 65.898 66.904 67.919 68.948
BE Baseline 98.582 100.060 101.574 102.670 103.780 104.905 106.044 107.197 108.366 109.550 110.749 111.964 113.194 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 98.583 100.061 101.574 102.748 104.097 105.462 106.831 108.194 109.538 110.864 112.174 113.476 114.773 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 98.583 100.061 101.574 102.709 103.983 105.239 106.498 107.756 109.001 110.238 111.469 112.699 113.933 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 98.583 100.061 101.574 102.710 103.994 105.281 106.574 107.871 109.162 110.450 111.736 113.019 114.302
CZ Baseline 41.948 43.820 45.818 46.937 48.085 49.263 50.472 51.713 52.986 54.293 55.633 57.009 58.421 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 41.948 43.820 45.818 46.946 48.106 49.292 50.508 51.756 53.034 54.346 55.694 57.081 58.511 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 41.948 43.820 45.818 46.933 48.070 49.226 50.408 51.622 52.868 54.151 55.477 56.846 58.264 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 41.948 43.820 45.818 46.934 48.075 49.242 50.438 51.667 52.929 54.228 55.567 56.948 58.376
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 706.028 718.152 730.551741.732 753.104 764.672 776.438 788.408 800.584 812.972 825.575 838.397 851.444 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 706.028 718.152 730.551 742.538 755.130 767.803 780.593 793.486 806.490 819.610 832.836 846.176 859.652 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 706.028 718.152 730.551 742.251 754.229 766.016 777.904 789.884 801.981 814.199 826.539 839.020 851.672 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 706.028 718.152 730.551 742.295 754.457 766.677 779.055 791.580 804.245 817.060 830.012 843.105 856.353
DK Baseline 33.176 33.447 33.835 34.016 34.200 34.386 34.573 34.762 34.953 35.146 35.341 35.538 35.737 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 33.176 33.447 33.835 34.049 34.287 34.545 34.810 35.077 35.340 35.592 35.830 36.056 36.272 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 33.176 33.447 33.835 34.044 34.269 34.505 34.744 34.981 35.211 35.433 35.645 35.850 36.051 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 33.176 33.447 33.835 34.041 34.262 34.493 34.729 34.966 35.199 35.426 35.646 35.859 36.068
ES Baseline 222.903 226.808 230.900235.632 240.467 245.408 250.458 255.619 260.894 266.284 271.794 277.426 283.182 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 222.903 226.808 230.900 235.760 240.920 246.316 251.838 257.492 263.245 269.122 275.122 281.245 287.495 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 222.903 226.808 230.900 235.539 240.180 244.710 249.334 254.048 258.871 263.793 268.824 273.969 279.234 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 222.903 226.808 230.900 235.639 240.528 245.502 250.592 255.801 261.127 266.574 272.146 277.844 283.671
FI Baseline 45.819 46.228 46.726 47.500 48.287 49.089 49.905 50.737 51.584 52.446 53.324 54.219 55.130 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 45.819 46.228 46.726 47.539 48.423 49.360 50.320 51.299 52.290 53.290 54.292 55.295 56.301 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 45.819 46.228 46.726 47.513 48.327 49.152 50.006 50.885 51.784 52.693 53.602 54.506 55.405 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 45.819 46.228 46.726 47.522 48.361 49.227 50.119 51.034 51.968 52.914 53.867 54.822 55.778
FR Baseline 532.062 537.167 542.397549.061 555.822 562.682 569.642 576.704 583.871 591.144 598.525 606.016 613.620 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 532.062 537.167 542.397 549.548 557.530 565.985 574.543 583.211 591.926 600.710 609.543 618.402 627.273 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 532.062 537.167 542.397 548.830 555.200 561.063 566.999 572.991 579.061 585.219 591.488 597.888 604.442 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 532.062 537.167 542.397 549.150 556.281 563.464 570.758 578.157 585.649 593.237 600.917 608.681 616.531
GR Baseline 21.850 21.870 21.913 22.245 22.582 22.925 23.274 23.629 23.990 24.357 24.730 25.109 25.495 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 21.850 21.870 21.913 22.261 22.646 23.068 23.504 23.952 24.405 24.868 25.339 25.817 26.302 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 21.850 21.870 21.913 22.243 22.564 22.866 23.166 23.465 23.768 24.072 24.379 24.688 25.001 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 21.850 21.870 21.913 22.251 22.602 22.959 23.322 23.691 24.064 24.443 24.827 25.216 25.610
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 24.042 24.900 25.845 26.372 26.912 27.466 28.035 28.620 29.220 29.837 30.469 31.119 31.787 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 24.042 24.900 25.845 26.413 27.018 27.678 28.366 29.089 29.851 30.659 31.518 32.431 33.388 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 24.042 24.900 25.845 26.357 26.860 27.338 27.824 28.314 28.811 29.307 29.802 30.293 30.791 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 24.042 24.900 25.845 26.381 26.930 27.496 28.080 28.684 29.310 29.960 30.636 31.338 32.066
IE Baseline 17.423 17.741 18.066 18.558 19.064 19.584 20.119 20.670 21.236 21.818 22.417 23.033 23.666 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 17.423 17.741 18.066 18.584 19.148 19.746 20.363 20.998 21.648 22.313 22.994 23.689 24.399 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 17.423 17.741 18.066 18.556 19.045 19.513 19.990 20.476 20.976 21.487 22.013 22.553 23.111 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 17.423 17.741 18.066 18.569 19.095 19.633 20.184 20.750 21.331 21.926 22.536 23.161 23.802
IT Baseline 400.242 404.172 408.158410.733 413.333 415.958 418.609 421.286 423.989 426.719 429.475 432.259 435.071 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 400.242 404.172 408.158 411.107 414.511 418.239 421.993 425.789 429.564 433.347 437.128 440.893 444.649 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 400.242 404.172 408.158 410.609 412.969 414.984 417.017 419.040 421.068 423.086 425.111 427.142 429.198 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 400.242 404.172 408.158 410.835 413.683 416.544 419.440 422.366 425.304 428.261 431.233 434.212 437.203
LU Baseline 4.452 4.511 4.573 4.618 4.664 4.710 4.757 4.804 4.853 4.901 4.951 5.001 5.052 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.452 4.511 4.573 4.624 4.685 4.743 4.801 4.858 4.914 4.968 5.020 5.072 5.122 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.452 4.511 4.573 4.617 4.662 4.697 4.733 4.770 4.807 4.847 4.889 4.932 4.978 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.452 4.511 4.573 4.621 4.675 4.726 4.777 4.828 4.879 4.929 4.978 5.028 5.077
NL Baseline 95.699 97.251 98.844 100.337 101.856 103.401 104.972 106.570 108.196 109.849 111.531 113.242 114.982 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 95.699 97.251 98.844 100.447 102.180 103.999 105.853 107.744 109.664 111.617 113.598 115.599 117.617 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 95.699 97.251 98.844 100.365 101.913 103.410 104.903 106.386 107.869 109.356 110.857 112.380 113.935 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 95.699 97.251 98.844 100.387 101.997 103.626 105.277 106.950 108.642 110.357 112.095 113.856 115.640
PL Baseline 123.249 128.497 134.064137.967 141.991 146.142 150.422 154.836 159.390 164.086 168.930 173.927 179.082 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 123.249 128.497 134.064 138.101 142.371 146.887 151.532 156.341 161.342 166.563 172.024 177.737 183.700 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 123.249 128.497 134.064 137.826 141.568 145.239 149.026 152.906 156.879 160.909 164.978 169.081 173.254 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 123.249 128.497 134.064 137.952 141.945 146.044 150.269 154.625 159.122 163.764 168.552 173.494 178.600
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 39.837 39.734 39.640 40.186 40.742 41.307 41.883 42.469 43.065 43.672 44.291 44.920 45.561 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 39.837 39.734 39.640 40.206 40.823 41.497 42.195 42.915 43.643 44.380 45.121 45.862 46.605 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 39.837 39.734 39.640 40.167 40.666 41.118 41.566 42.013 42.468 42.934 43.417 43.920 44.443 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 39.837 39.734 39.640 40.182 40.732 41.289 41.856 42.436 43.026 43.627 44.240 44.865 45.501
SE Baseline 76.949 78.065 79.370 80.598 81.848 83.119 84.413 85.729 87.068 88.430 89.816 91.227 92.662 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 76.949 78.065 79.370 80.719 82.159 83.658 85.166 86.677 88.191 89.715 91.250 92.803 94.378 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 76.949 78.065 79.370 80.665 81.983 83.292 84.615 85.949 87.296 88.647 89.998 91.348 92.704 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 76.949 78.065 79.370 80.675 82.024 83.395 84.782 86.184 87.597 89.023 90.459 91.908 93.372
SI Baseline 5.366 5.490 5.624 5.775 5.931 6.091 6.257 6.428 6.604 6.786 6.973 7.166 7.366 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.366 5.490 5.624 5.787 5.964 6.156 6.353 6.556 6.765 6.981 7.203 7.432 7.668 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.366 5.490 5.624 5.772 5.916 6.054 6.196 6.343 6.496 6.654 6.818 6.987 7.163 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.366 5.490 5.624 5.779 5.939 6.104 6.275 6.451 6.634 6.822 7.017 7.217 7.424
UK Baseline 465.196 473.428 481.891490.034 498.329 506.777 515.382 524.147 533.074 542.168 551.431 560.867 570.479 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 465.196 473.428 481.891 490.628 499.968 509.783 519.765 529.917 540.199 550.626 561.170 571.815 582.549 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 465.196 473.428 481.891 489.948 497.758 505.007 512.326 519.705 527.215 534.851 542.650 550.650 558.886 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 465.196 473.428 481.891 490.224 498.724 507.267 515.960 524.798 533.782 542.920 552.209 561.654 571.260
vkm of medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 1.452.716 1.514.278 1.580.531 1.655.170 1.735.734 1.822.510 1.851.046 1.879.292 1.906.387 1.934.905 1.962.890 1.986.311 2.010.675 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.452.716 1.514.279 1.580.532 1.655.171 1.735.735 1.822.511 1.851.047 1.879.293 1.906.388 1.934.906 1.962.891 1.986.312 2.010.676 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.452.716 1.514.279 1.580.532 1.655.171 1.735.735 1.822.511 1.851.047 1.879.293 1.906.388 1.934.906 1.962.891 1.986.312 2.010.676 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.452.716 1.514.279 1.580.532 1.655.171 1.735.735 1.822.511 1.851.047 1.879.293 1.906.388 1.934.906 1.962.891 1.986.312 2.010.676
EU15 Baseline 1.274.877 1.329.298 1.388.422 1.454.218 1.525.926 1.604.070 1.628.080 1.652.171 1.675.960 1.700.612 1.725.250 1.745.999 1.767.498 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.274.877 1.329.298 1.388.422 1.454.219 1.525.926 1.604.071 1.628.081 1.652.172 1.675.961 1.700.613 1.725.250 1.746.000 1.767.499 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.274.877 1.329.298 1.388.422 1.454.219 1.525.926 1.604.071 1.628.081 1.652.172 1.675.961 1.700.613 1.725.250 1.746.000 1.767.499 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.274.877 1.329.298 1.388.422 1.454.219 1.525.926 1.604.071 1.628.081 1.652.172 1.675.961 1.700.613 1.725.250 1.746.000 1.767.499
EU10 Baseline 177.839 184.980 192.110 200.952 209.808 218.440 222.966 227.120 230.427 234.293 237.640 240.312 243.177 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 177.839 184.981 192.110 200.952 209.809 218.440 222.966 227.121 230.427 234.294 237.641 240.312 243.178 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 177.839 184.981 192.110 200.952 209.809 218.440 222.966 227.121 230.427 234.294 237.641 240.312 243.178 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 177.839 184.981 192.110 200.952 209.809 218.440 222.966 227.121 230.427 234.294 237.641 240.312 243.178
AT Baseline 25.468 26.661 27.909 29.216 30.584 32.016 32.410 32.808 33.211 33.619 34.032 34.496 34.977 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 25.468 26.661 27.909 29.216 30.584 32.016 32.410 32.808 33.211 33.619 34.032 34.496 34.977 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 25.468 26.661 27.909 29.216 30.584 32.016 32.410 32.808 33.211 33.619 34.032 34.496 34.977 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 25.468 26.661 27.909 29.216 30.584 32.016 32.410 32.808 33.211 33.619 34.032 34.496 34.977
BE Baseline 49.535 51.385 53.037 55.893 58.549 60.797 62.709 64.286 65.138 66.417 67.239 68.159 69.101 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 49.535 51.386 53.037 55.893 58.550 60.798 62.709 64.287 65.138 66.417 67.239 68.160 69.102 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 49.535 51.386 53.037 55.893 58.550 60.798 62.709 64.287 65.138 66.417 67.239 68.160 69.102 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 49.535 51.386 53.037 55.893 58.550 60.798 62.709 64.287 65.138 66.417 67.239 68.160 69.102
CZ Baseline 12.728 13.140 13.566 14.005 14.459 14.927 15.341 15.766 16.203 16.652 17.114 17.635 18.193 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 12.728 13.140 13.566 14.005 14.459 14.927 15.341 15.766 16.203 16.652 17.114 17.635 18.193 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 12.728 13.140 13.566 14.005 14.459 14.927 15.341 15.766 16.203 16.652 17.114 17.635 18.193 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 12.728 13.140 13.566 14.005 14.459 14.927 15.341 15.766 16.203 16.652 17.114 17.635 18.193
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 411.950 415.098 418.329421.644 425.045 428.531 433.256 438.033 442.863 447.746 452.682 460.054 467.587 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 411.950 415.098 418.329 421.644 425.045 428.531 433.256 438.033 442.863 447.746 452.682 460.054 467.587 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 411.950 415.098 418.329 421.644 425.045 428.531 433.256 438.033 442.863 447.746 452.682 460.054 467.587 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 411.950 415.098 418.329 421.644 425.045 428.531 433.256 438.033 442.863 447.746 452.682 460.054 467.587
DK Baseline 13.691 14.979 16.388 17.929 19.615 21.460 21.587 21.714 21.842 21.971 22.101 22.098 22.145 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.691 14.979 16.388 17.929 19.615 21.460 21.587 21.714 21.842 21.971 22.101 22.098 22.145 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.691 14.979 16.388 17.929 19.615 21.460 21.587 21.714 21.842 21.971 22.101 22.098 22.145 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.691 14.979 16.388 17.929 19.615 21.460 21.587 21.714 21.842 21.971 22.101 22.098 22.145
ES Baseline 71.019 79.436 88.851 99.381 111.160 124.334 128.431 132.663 137.034 141.549 146.213 148.330 150.538 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 71.019 79.436 88.851 99.381 111.160 124.334 128.431 132.663 137.034 141.549 146.213 148.330 150.538 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 71.019 79.436 88.851 99.381 111.160 124.334 128.431 132.663 137.034 141.549 146.213 148.330 150.538 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 71.019 79.436 88.851 99.381 111.160 124.334 128.431 132.663 137.034 141.549 146.213 148.330 150.538
FI Baseline 10.861 13.383 16.491 20.320 25.038 30.852 31.271 31.695 32.125 32.561 33.003 33.124 33.290 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.861 13.383 16.491 20.320 25.038 30.852 31.271 31.695 32.125 32.561 33.003 33.124 33.290 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.861 13.383 16.491 20.320 25.038 30.852 31.271 31.695 32.125 32.561 33.003 33.124 33.290 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.861 13.383 16.491 20.320 25.038 30.852 31.271 31.695 32.125 32.561 33.003 33.124 33.290
FR Baseline 230.318 237.701 245.707254.379 263.762 273.904 278.550 283.276 288.081 292.968 297.938 300.412 302.952 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 230.318 237.701 245.707 254.379 263.762 273.904 278.550 283.276 288.081 292.968 297.938 300.412 302.952 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 230.318 237.701 245.707 254.379 263.762 273.904 278.550 283.276 288.081 292.968 297.938 300.412 302.952 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 230.318 237.701 245.707 254.379 263.762 273.904 278.550 283.276 288.081 292.968 297.938 300.412 302.952
GR Baseline 6.387 7.011 7.697 8.450 9.276 10.183 10.491 10.808 11.135 11.472 11.819 11.766 11.727 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.387 7.011 7.697 8.450 9.276 10.183 10.491 10.808 11.135 11.472 11.819 11.766 11.727 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.387 7.011 7.697 8.450 9.276 10.183 10.491 10.808 11.135 11.472 11.819 11.766 11.727 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.387 7.011 7.697 8.450 9.276 10.183 10.491 10.808 11.135 11.472 11.819 11.766 11.727
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 8.683 8.712 8.742 8.772 8.802 8.832 9.023 9.217 9.416 9.619 9.826 10.031 10.264 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.683 8.712 8.742 8.772 8.802 8.832 9.023 9.217 9.416 9.619 9.826 10.031 10.264 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.683 8.712 8.742 8.772 8.802 8.832 9.023 9.217 9.416 9.619 9.826 10.031 10.264 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.683 8.712 8.742 8.772 8.802 8.832 9.023 9.217 9.416 9.619 9.826 10.031 10.264
IE Baseline 3.977 4.641 5.414 6.317 7.370 8.599 8.888 9.186 9.495 9.813 10.143 10.310 10.482 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.977 4.641 5.414 6.317 7.370 8.599 8.888 9.186 9.495 9.813 10.143 10.310 10.482 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.977 4.641 5.414 6.317 7.370 8.599 8.888 9.186 9.495 9.813 10.143 10.310 10.482 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.977 4.641 5.414 6.317 7.370 8.599 8.888 9.186 9.495 9.813 10.143 10.310 10.482
IT Baseline 135.599 151.337 168.901188.503 210.380 234.797 235.268 235.741 236.215 236.689 237.165 239.180 241.226 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 135.599 151.337 168.901 188.503 210.380 234.797 235.268 235.741 236.215 236.689 237.165 239.180 241.226 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 135.599 151.337 168.901 188.503 210.380 234.797 235.268 235.741 236.215 236.689 237.165 239.180 241.226 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 135.599 151.337 168.901 188.503 210.380 234.797 235.268 235.741 236.215 236.689 237.165 239.180 241.226
LU Baseline 1.983 2.144 2.319 2.508 2.713 2.934 2.978 3.022 3.067 3.113 3.159 3.199 3.239 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.983 2.144 2.319 2.508 2.713 2.934 2.978 3.022 3.067 3.113 3.159 3.199 3.239 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.983 2.144 2.319 2.508 2.713 2.934 2.978 3.022 3.067 3.113 3.159 3.199 3.239 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.983 2.144 2.319 2.508 2.713 2.934 2.978 3.022 3.067 3.113 3.159 3.199 3.239
NL Baseline 50.698 52.739 54.863 57.072 59.369 61.760 62.615 63.481 64.360 65.251 66.155 67.124 68.119 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 50.698 52.739 54.863 57.072 59.369 61.760 62.615 63.481 64.360 65.251 66.155 67.124 68.119 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 50.698 52.739 54.863 57.072 59.369 61.760 62.615 63.481 64.360 65.251 66.155 67.124 68.119 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 50.698 52.739 54.863 57.072 59.369 61.760 62.615 63.481 64.360 65.251 66.155 67.124 68.119
PL Baseline 24.425 26.997 29.839 32.980 36.453 40.290 42.217 44.237 46.352 48.569 50.893 52.500 54.198 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 24.425 26.997 29.839 32.980 36.453 40.290 42.217 44.237 46.352 48.569 50.893 52.500 54.198 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 24.425 26.997 29.839 32.980 36.453 40.290 42.217 44.237 46.352 48.569 50.893 52.500 54.198 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 24.425 26.997 29.839 32.980 36.453 40.290 42.217 44.237 46.352 48.569 50.893 52.500 54.198
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 19.252 20.294 21.392 22.550 23.770 25.057 25.469 25.888 26.314 26.747 27.187 27.083 26.986 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 19.252 20.294 21.392 22.550 23.770 25.057 25.469 25.888 26.314 26.747 27.187 27.083 26.986 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 19.252 20.294 21.392 22.550 23.770 25.057 25.469 25.888 26.314 26.747 27.187 27.083 26.986 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 19.252 20.294 21.392 22.550 23.770 25.057 25.469 25.888 26.314 26.747 27.187 27.083 26.986
SE Baseline 39.208 40.548 41.933 43.366 44.848 46.381 47.018 47.663 48.317 48.980 49.652 50.006 50.458 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 39.208 40.548 41.933 43.366 44.848 46.381 47.018 47.663 48.317 48.980 49.652 50.006 50.458 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 39.208 40.548 41.933 43.366 44.848 46.381 47.018 47.663 48.317 48.980 49.652 50.006 50.458 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 39.208 40.548 41.933 43.366 44.848 46.381 47.018 47.663 48.317 48.980 49.652 50.006 50.458
SI Baseline 2.257 2.242 2.227 2.212 2.197 2.182 2.211 2.241 2.271 2.301 2.332 2.374 2.421 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.257 2.242 2.227 2.212 2.197 2.182 2.211 2.241 2.271 2.301 2.332 2.374 2.421 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.257 2.242 2.227 2.212 2.197 2.182 2.211 2.241 2.271 2.301 2.332 2.374 2.421 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.257 2.242 2.227 2.212 2.197 2.182 2.211 2.241 2.271 2.301 2.332 2.374 2.421
UK Baseline 204.930 211.940 219.191226.689 234.444 242.464 247.140 251.906 256.764 261.715 266.762 270.658 274.671 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 204.930 211.940 219.191 226.689 234.444 242.464 247.140 251.906 256.764 261.715 266.762 270.658 274.671 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 204.930 211.940 219.191 226.689 234.444 242.464 247.140 251.906 256.764 261.715 266.762 270.658 274.671 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 204.930 211.940 219.191 226.689 234.444 242.464 247.140 251.906 256.764 261.715 266.762 270.658 274.671
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 2.036.033 2.062.444 2.089.987 2.117.907 2.146.289 2.175.143 2.204.478 2.234.304 2.264.629 2.295.463 2.326.817 2.358.700 2.391.123 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.036.034 2.062.445 2.089.988 2.119.344 2.150.435 2.181.860 2.213.655 2.245.764 2.278.134 2.310.784 2.343.703 2.376.901 2.410.432 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.036.034 2.062.445 2.089.988 2.118.700 2.148.411 2.177.875 2.207.668 2.237.764 2.268.140 2.298.835 2.329.870 2.361.277 2.393.128 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.036.034 2.062.445 2.089.988 2.118.793 2.148.870 2.179.195 2.209.967 2.241.160 2.272.719 2.304.673 2.336.999 2.369.696 2.402.788
EU15 Baseline 1.789.786 1.812.910 1.836.930 1.861.524 1.886.530 1.911.955 1.937.807 1.964.095 1.990.828 2.018.013 2.045.661 2.073.779 2.102.378 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.789.786 1.812.910 1.836.930 1.862.741 1.889.995 1.917.507 1.945.362 1.973.517 2.001.934 2.030.625 2.059.578 2.088.796 2.118.321 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.789.786 1.812.910 1.836.930 1.862.171 1.888.204 1.913.993 1.940.085 1.966.464 1.993.111 2.020.059 2.047.324 2.074.933 2.102.945 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.789.786 1.812.910 1.836.930 1.862.271 1.888.666 1.915.269 1.942.281 1.969.680 1.997.424 2.025.534 2.053.989 2.082.787 2.111.948
EU10 Baseline 246.247 249.534 253.057 256.383 259.759 263.189 266.671 270.208 273.801 277.450 281.156 284.921 288.745 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 246.247 249.535 253.058 256.603 260.441 264.353 268.293 272.247 276.201 280.159 284.124 288.105 292.111 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 246.247 249.535 253.058 256.529 260.206 263.882 267.582 271.300 275.029 278.777 282.546 286.345 290.183 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 246.247 249.535 253.058 256.522 260.205 263.926 267.686 271.480 275.296 279.139 283.010 286.909 290.840
AT Baseline 35.477 35.997 36.537 37.022 37.515 38.016 38.525 39.043 39.569 40.103 40.647 41.199 41.761 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 35.477 35.997 36.537 37.036 37.593 38.148 38.707 39.271 39.840 40.412 40.989 41.569 42.156 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 35.477 35.997 36.537 37.019 37.541 38.044 38.552 39.066 39.585 40.111 40.644 41.184 41.732 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 35.477 35.997 36.537 37.027 37.568 38.107 38.653 39.205 39.764 40.328 40.899 41.476 42.059
BE Baseline 70.066 71.054 72.065 72.815 73.574 74.342 75.120 75.908 76.705 77.513 78.331 79.159 79.997 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 70.067 71.054 72.066 72.868 73.791 74.724 75.659 76.590 77.507 78.412 79.305 80.192 81.076 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 70.067 71.054 72.066 72.842 73.713 74.572 75.432 76.291 77.142 77.985 78.825 79.663 80.504 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 70.067 71.054 72.066 72.843 73.720 74.600 75.484 76.369 77.250 78.129 79.005 79.880 80.754
CZ Baseline 18.788 19.425 20.106 20.557 21.019 21.493 21.978 22.476 22.985 23.507 24.042 24.590 25.152 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 18.788 19.425 20.106 20.561 21.028 21.505 21.993 22.492 23.004 23.528 24.066 24.618 25.187 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 18.788 19.425 20.106 20.555 21.012 21.475 21.948 22.433 22.930 23.441 23.969 24.513 25.076 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 18.788 19.425 20.106 20.556 21.015 21.483 21.962 22.454 22.959 23.477 24.011 24.561 25.128
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 475.285 483.155 491.199498.447 505.816 513.308 520.925 528.669 536.544 544.551 552.694 560.974 569.395 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 475.285 483.155 491.199 498.976 507.142 515.353 523.636 531.980 540.391 548.873 557.418 566.033 574.729 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 475.285 483.155 491.199 498.787 506.552 514.184 521.878 529.628 537.449 545.344 553.315 561.373 569.536 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 475.285 483.155 491.199 498.818 506.705 514.625 522.643 530.752 538.947 547.234 555.606 564.064 572.617
DK Baseline 22.250 22.426 22.694 22.810 22.928 23.047 23.167 23.289 23.411 23.535 23.661 23.787 23.915 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 22.250 22.426 22.694 22.831 22.983 23.148 23.317 23.488 23.656 23.818 23.971 24.115 24.254 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 22.250 22.426 22.694 22.827 22.972 23.122 23.275 23.427 23.575 23.717 23.853 23.985 24.114 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 22.250 22.426 22.694 22.826 22.967 23.115 23.266 23.417 23.567 23.713 23.854 23.990 24.125
ES Baseline 152.844 155.256 157.782160.906 164.096 167.355 170.684 174.085 177.558 181.106 184.731 188.433 192.216 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 152.844 155.256 157.782 160.934 164.205 167.534 170.937 174.416 177.966 181.590 185.290 189.067 192.922 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 152.844 155.256 157.782 160.900 164.094 167.312 170.596 173.948 177.363 180.846 184.403 188.035 191.747 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 152.844 155.256 157.782 160.911 164.136 167.416 170.772 174.203 177.710 181.295 184.960 188.705 192.534
FI Baseline 33.504 33.774 34.106 34.655 35.213 35.782 36.360 36.950 37.549 38.160 38.782 39.415 40.060 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 33.504 33.774 34.106 34.674 35.279 35.910 36.564 37.237 37.927 38.627 39.330 40.029 40.722 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 33.504 33.774 34.106 34.672 35.269 35.885 36.516 37.156 37.803 38.453 39.102 39.752 40.405 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 33.504 33.774 34.106 34.670 35.264 35.878 36.509 37.156 37.817 38.486 39.160 39.835 40.512
FR Baseline 305.560 308.238 310.986314.714 318.494 322.329 326.218 330.164 334.166 338.227 342.346 346.526 350.767 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 305.560 308.238 310.986 314.826 318.923 323.038 327.203 331.411 335.650 339.928 344.243 348.594 352.983 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 305.560 308.238 310.986 314.742 318.664 322.552 326.488 330.470 334.490 338.557 342.672 346.837 351.055 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 305.560 308.238 310.986 314.763 318.748 322.762 326.837 330.970 335.153 339.389 343.674 348.006 352.383
GR Baseline 11.701 11.689 11.692 11.851 12.014 12.179 12.346 12.517 12.690 12.866 13.045 13.226 13.411 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.701 11.689 11.692 11.855 12.024 12.197 12.373 12.551 12.732 12.915 13.100 13.287 13.477 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.701 11.689 11.692 11.855 12.024 12.197 12.374 12.554 12.735 12.919 13.105 13.294 13.485 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.701 11.689 11.692 11.854 12.022 12.194 12.368 12.544 12.723 12.904 13.088 13.274 13.463
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 10.526 10.819 11.143 11.333 11.527 11.726 11.930 12.139 12.353 12.573 12.798 13.029 13.266 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.526 10.819 11.143 11.340 11.543 11.751 11.965 12.186 12.415 12.652 12.899 13.154 13.418 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.526 10.819 11.143 11.336 11.533 11.734 11.942 12.157 12.379 12.610 12.849 13.097 13.354 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.526 10.819 11.143 11.336 11.534 11.738 11.948 12.164 12.389 12.622 12.864 13.116 13.377
IE Baseline 10.658 10.839 11.024 11.316 11.616 11.924 12.242 12.568 12.903 13.248 13.603 13.968 14.343 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.658 10.839 11.024 11.324 11.640 11.962 12.292 12.630 12.976 13.330 13.693 14.065 14.445 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.658 10.839 11.024 11.321 11.629 11.939 12.257 12.583 12.918 13.260 13.612 13.972 14.341 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.658 10.839 11.024 11.322 11.634 11.952 12.279 12.614 12.958 13.311 13.672 14.042 14.421
IT Baseline 243.305 245.416 247.559248.945 250.344 251.757 253.184 254.626 256.081 257.551 259.036 260.536 262.051 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 243.305 245.416 247.559 249.041 250.652 252.273 253.909 255.557 257.200 258.843 260.484 262.119 263.754 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 243.305 245.416 247.559 248.992 250.505 251.995 253.493 254.998 256.495 257.990 259.488 260.985 262.489 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 243.305 245.416 247.559 249.004 250.547 252.097 253.666 255.252 256.844 258.446 260.056 261.668 263.287
LU Baseline 3.281 3.324 3.368 3.401 3.435 3.469 3.503 3.538 3.574 3.609 3.646 3.683 3.720 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.281 3.324 3.368 3.405 3.446 3.485 3.524 3.562 3.600 3.637 3.673 3.710 3.746 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.281 3.324 3.368 3.401 3.437 3.467 3.497 3.528 3.559 3.591 3.623 3.657 3.692 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.281 3.324 3.368 3.403 3.443 3.480 3.518 3.555 3.592 3.629 3.665 3.702 3.738
NL Baseline 69.140 70.189 71.266 72.308 73.368 74.445 75.541 76.655 77.788 78.940 80.111 81.302 82.513 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 69.140 70.189 71.266 72.368 73.538 74.731 75.932 77.139 78.351 79.574 80.809 82.059 83.326 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 69.140 70.189 71.266 72.345 73.465 74.586 75.719 76.865 78.023 79.197 80.386 81.590 82.810 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 69.140 70.189 71.266 72.343 73.467 74.603 75.755 76.922 78.101 79.296 80.507 81.733 82.975
PL Baseline 55.990 57.881 59.878 61.452 63.072 64.738 66.453 68.218 70.034 71.904 73.827 75.807 77.846 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 55.990 57.881 59.878 61.458 63.084 64.745 66.453 68.209 70.018 71.876 73.783 75.743 77.762 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 55.990 57.881 59.878 61.442 63.036 64.652 66.312 68.019 69.779 71.591 73.454 75.368 77.341 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 55.990 57.881 59.878 61.445 63.049 64.691 66.380 68.117 69.906 71.749 73.645 75.598 77.611
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 26.896 26.812 26.734 27.065 27.401 27.744 28.091 28.445 28.805 29.171 29.544 29.923 30.308 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 26.896 26.812 26.734 27.068 27.414 27.763 28.117 28.476 28.839 29.207 29.581 29.961 30.348 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 26.896 26.812 26.734 27.062 27.392 27.724 28.062 28.407 28.758 29.114 29.477 29.845 30.219 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 26.896 26.812 26.734 27.063 27.395 27.732 28.074 28.424 28.780 29.142 29.511 29.887 30.269
SE Baseline 51.015 51.686 52.484 53.259 54.047 54.848 55.663 56.491 57.334 58.190 59.062 59.948 60.849 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 51.015 51.686 52.484 53.324 54.208 55.117 56.036 56.962 57.894 58.830 59.768 60.708 61.653 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 51.015 51.686 52.484 53.313 54.168 55.028 55.892 56.757 57.624 58.496 59.372 60.255 61.151 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 51.015 51.686 52.484 53.308 54.158 55.022 55.896 56.779 57.668 58.565 59.468 60.378 61.297
SI Baseline 2.472 2.527 2.587 2.656 2.727 2.800 2.876 2.954 3.034 3.117 3.202 3.290 3.381 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.472 2.527 2.587 2.658 2.732 2.809 2.887 2.968 3.052 3.138 3.227 3.318 3.412 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.472 2.527 2.587 2.657 2.730 2.804 2.879 2.958 3.039 3.123 3.210 3.300 3.393 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.472 2.527 2.587 2.657 2.731 2.806 2.883 2.964 3.047 3.133 3.221 3.312 3.406
UK Baseline 278.803 283.057 287.434292.011 296.669 301.410 306.236 311.149 316.150 321.241 326.424 331.700 337.071 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 278.803 283.057 287.434 292.212 297.156 302.124 307.156 312.247 317.405 322.630 327.924 333.288 338.730 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 278.803 283.057 287.434 292.094 296.780 301.384 306.054 310.787 315.594 320.479 325.447 330.506 335.665 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 278.803 283.057 287.434 292.118 296.891 301.686 306.562 311.516 316.550 321.666 326.864 332.146 337.515
pkm of small and medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 4.110.791 4.150.623 4.201.846 4.268.214 4.348.581 4.435.552 4.501.048 4.567.094 4.632.234 4.701.477 4.771.220 4.830.472 4.892.043 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.110.791 4.150.625 4.201.847 4.268.216 4.348.583 4.435.554 4.501.050 4.567.096 4.632.236 4.701.479 4.771.222 4.830.474 4.892.045 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.110.791 4.150.625 4.201.847 4.268.216 4.348.583 4.435.554 4.501.050 4.567.096 4.632.236 4.701.479 4.771.222 4.830.474 4.892.045 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.110.791 4.150.625 4.201.847 4.268.216 4.348.583 4.435.554 4.501.050 4.567.096 4.632.236 4.701.479 4.771.222 4.830.474 4.892.045
EU15 Baseline 3.651.863 3.681.359 3.723.257 3.779.175 3.848.710 3.928.806 3.985.448 4.042.862 4.100.404 4.160.344 4.221.072 4.274.618 4.330.022 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.651.863 3.681.360 3.723.258 3.779.176 3.848.710 3.928.807 3.985.448 4.042.862 4.100.405 4.160.345 4.221.073 4.274.619 4.330.023 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.651.863 3.681.360 3.723.258 3.779.176 3.848.710 3.928.807 3.985.448 4.042.862 4.100.405 4.160.345 4.221.073 4.274.619 4.330.023 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.651.863 3.681.360 3.723.258 3.779.176 3.848.710 3.928.807 3.985.448 4.042.862 4.100.405 4.160.345 4.221.073 4.274.619 4.330.023
EU10 Baseline 458.928 469.264 478.588 489.039 499.872 506.746 515.601 524.233 531.830 541.133 550.148 555.854 562.021 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 458.928 469.265 478.589 489.039 499.872 506.747 515.601 524.234 531.831 541.134 550.149 555.855 562.022 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 458.928 469.265 478.589 489.039 499.872 506.747 515.601 524.234 531.831 541.134 550.149 555.855 562.022 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 458.928 469.265 478.589 489.039 499.872 506.747 515.601 524.234 531.831 541.134 550.149 555.855 562.022
AT Baseline 70.048 69.242 68.775 68.628 68.784 69.230 70.081 70.942 71.814 72.696 73.590 74.833 76.121 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 70.048 69.242 68.775 68.628 68.784 69.230 70.081 70.942 71.814 72.696 73.590 74.833 76.121 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 70.048 69.242 68.775 68.628 68.784 69.230 70.081 70.942 71.814 72.696 73.590 74.833 76.121 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 70.048 69.242 68.775 68.628 68.784 69.230 70.081 70.942 71.814 72.696 73.590 74.833 76.121
BE Baseline 97.465 100.906 103.012 105.517 107.797 106.272 107.997 109.425 109.887 111.627 113.008 114.655 116.342 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 97.465 100.907 103.012 105.518 107.798 106.272 107.998 109.425 109.888 111.627 113.009 114.656 116.343 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 97.465 100.907 103.012 105.518 107.798 106.272 107.998 109.425 109.888 111.627 113.009 114.656 116.343 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 97.465 100.907 103.012 105.518 107.798 106.272 107.998 109.425 109.888 111.627 113.009 114.656 116.343
CZ Baseline 54.500 56.265 58.088 59.970 61.912 63.918 65.689 67.510 69.381 71.303 73.279 76.329 79.582 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 54.500 56.265 58.088 59.970 61.912 63.918 65.689 67.510 69.381 71.303 73.279 76.329 79.582 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 54.500 56.265 58.088 59.970 61.912 63.918 65.689 67.510 69.381 71.303 73.279 76.329 79.582 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 54.500 56.265 58.088 59.970 61.912 63.918 65.689 67.510 69.381 71.303 73.279 76.329 79.582
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 820.233 823.559 827.026830.634 834.385 838.277 847.519 856.864 866.311 875.863 885.520 900.490 915.792 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 820.233 823.559 827.026 830.634 834.385 838.277 847.519 856.864 866.311 875.863 885.520 900.490 915.792 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 820.233 823.559 827.026 830.634 834.385 838.277 847.519 856.864 866.311 875.863 885.520 900.490 915.792 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 820.233 823.559 827.026 830.634 834.385 838.277 847.519 856.864 866.311 875.863 885.520 900.490 915.792
DK Baseline 56.066 56.092 56.399 56.997 57.900 59.124 59.473 59.824 60.177 60.532 60.889 60.955 61.144 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 56.066 56.092 56.399 56.997 57.900 59.124 59.473 59.824 60.177 60.532 60.889 60.955 61.144 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 56.066 56.092 56.399 56.997 57.900 59.124 59.473 59.824 60.177 60.532 60.889 60.955 61.144 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 56.066 56.092 56.399 56.997 57.900 59.124 59.473 59.824 60.177 60.532 60.889 60.955 61.144
ES Baseline 261.397 265.190 270.878278.610 288.554 300.904 310.819 321.060 331.639 342.566 353.853 359.565 365.523 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 261.397 265.190 270.878 278.610 288.554 300.904 310.819 321.060 331.639 342.566 353.853 359.565 365.523 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 261.397 265.190 270.878 278.610 288.554 300.904 310.819 321.060 331.639 342.566 353.853 359.565 365.523 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 261.397 265.190 270.878 278.610 288.554 300.904 310.819 321.060 331.639 342.566 353.853 359.565 365.523
FI Baseline 71.597 60.929 54.566 51.821 52.269 55.700 56.456 57.222 57.998 58.785 59.582 59.850 60.198 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 71.597 60.929 54.566 51.821 52.269 55.700 56.456 57.222 57.998 58.785 59.582 59.850 60.198 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 71.597 60.929 54.566 51.821 52.269 55.700 56.456 57.222 57.998 58.785 59.582 59.850 60.198 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 71.597 60.929 54.566 51.821 52.269 55.700 56.456 57.222 57.998 58.785 59.582 59.850 60.198
FR Baseline 647.814 655.316 664.210674.529 686.312 699.600 711.468 723.537 735.811 748.293 760.987 767.967 775.118 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 647.814 655.316 664.210 674.529 686.312 699.600 711.468 723.537 735.811 748.293 760.987 767.967 775.118 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 647.814 655.316 664.210 674.529 686.312 699.600 711.468 723.537 735.811 748.293 760.987 767.967 775.118 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 647.814 655.316 664.210 674.529 686.312 699.600 711.468 723.537 735.811 748.293 760.987 767.967 775.118
GR Baseline 58.957 62.145 65.534 69.139 72.975 77.060 79.392 81.795 84.270 86.820 89.448 89.248 89.140 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 58.957 62.145 65.534 69.139 72.975 77.060 79.392 81.795 84.270 86.820 89.448 89.248 89.140 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 58.957 62.145 65.534 69.139 72.975 77.060 79.392 81.795 84.270 86.820 89.448 89.248 89.140 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 58.957 62.145 65.534 69.139 72.975 77.060 79.392 81.795 84.270 86.820 89.448 89.248 89.140
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 45.800 45.957 46.114 46.272 46.431 46.590 47.594 48.621 49.669 50.740 51.834 53.296 54.939 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 45.800 45.957 46.114 46.272 46.431 46.590 47.594 48.621 49.669 50.740 51.834 53.296 54.939 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 45.800 45.957 46.114 46.272 46.431 46.590 47.594 48.621 49.669 50.740 51.834 53.296 54.939 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 45.800 45.957 46.114 46.272 46.431 46.590 47.594 48.621 49.669 50.740 51.834 53.296 54.939
IE Baseline 23.774 25.242 26.899 28.775 30.905 33.330 34.449 35.606 36.801 38.037 39.314 40.019 40.740 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 23.774 25.242 26.899 28.775 30.905 33.330 34.449 35.606 36.801 38.037 39.314 40.019 40.740 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 23.774 25.242 26.899 28.775 30.905 33.330 34.449 35.606 36.801 38.037 39.314 40.019 40.740 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 23.774 25.242 26.899 28.775 30.905 33.330 34.449 35.606 36.801 38.037 39.314 40.019 40.740
IT Baseline 635.639 645.979 659.891677.701 699.777 726.530 727.990 729.452 730.918 732.386 733.857 740.959 748.164 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 635.639 645.979 659.891 677.701 699.777 726.530 727.990 729.452 730.918 732.386 733.857 740.959 748.164 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 635.639 645.979 659.891 677.701 699.777 726.530 727.990 729.452 730.918 732.386 733.857 740.959 748.164 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 635.639 645.979 659.891 677.701 699.777 726.530 727.990 729.452 730.918 732.386 733.857 740.959 748.164
LU Baseline 5.059 4.941 4.889 4.898 4.963 5.080 5.155 5.232 5.310 5.389 5.469 5.539 5.611 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.059 4.941 4.889 4.898 4.963 5.080 5.155 5.232 5.310 5.389 5.469 5.539 5.611 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.059 4.941 4.889 4.898 4.963 5.080 5.155 5.232 5.310 5.389 5.469 5.539 5.611 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.059 4.941 4.889 4.898 4.963 5.080 5.155 5.232 5.310 5.389 5.469 5.539 5.611
NL Baseline 132.148 133.648 135.289137.075 139.011 141.100 143.054 145.034 147.042 149.078 151.142 153.520 155.961 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 132.148 133.648 135.289 137.075 139.011 141.100 143.054 145.034 147.042 149.078 151.142 153.520 155.961 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 132.148 133.648 135.289 137.075 139.011 141.100 143.054 145.034 147.042 149.078 151.142 153.520 155.961 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 132.148 133.648 135.289 137.075 139.011 141.100 143.054 145.034 147.042 149.078 151.142 153.520 155.961
PL Baseline 112.055 118.276 125.086132.547 140.727 149.700 156.860 164.363 172.224 180.461 189.093 196.687 204.752 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 112.055 118.276 125.086 132.547 140.727 149.700 156.860 164.363 172.224 180.461 189.093 196.687 204.752 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 112.055 118.276 125.086 132.547 140.727 149.700 156.860 164.363 172.224 180.461 189.093 196.687 204.752 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 112.055 118.276 125.086 132.547 140.727 149.700 156.860 164.363 172.224 180.461 189.093 196.687 204.752
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 61.475 65.795 70.432 75.411 80.758 86.500 87.923 89.370 90.840 92.335 93.854 93.553 93.273 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 61.475 65.795 70.432 75.411 80.758 86.500 87.923 89.370 90.840 92.335 93.854 93.553 93.273 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 61.475 65.795 70.432 75.411 80.758 86.500 87.923 89.370 90.840 92.335 93.854 93.553 93.273 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 61.475 65.795 70.432 75.411 80.758 86.500 87.923 89.370 90.840 92.335 93.854 93.553 93.273
SE Baseline 87.750 88.097 88.608 89.280 90.112 91.100 92.350 93.617 94.902 96.204 97.524 98.377 99.414 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 87.750 88.097 88.608 89.280 90.112 91.100 92.350 93.617 94.902 96.204 97.524 98.377 99.414 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 87.750 88.097 88.608 89.280 90.112 91.100 92.350 93.617 94.902 96.204 97.524 98.377 99.414 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 87.750 88.097 88.608 89.280 90.112 91.100 92.350 93.617 94.902 96.204 97.524 98.377 99.414
SI Baseline 10.378 10.308 10.239 10.170 10.102 10.034 10.168 10.303 10.440 10.579 10.720 10.927 11.153 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.378 10.308 10.239 10.170 10.102 10.034 10.168 10.303 10.440 10.579 10.720 10.927 11.153 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.378 10.308 10.239 10.170 10.102 10.034 10.168 10.303 10.440 10.579 10.720 10.927 11.153 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.378 10.308 10.239 10.170 10.102 10.034 10.168 10.303 10.440 10.579 10.720 10.927 11.153
UK Baseline 622.439 624.277 626.850630.159 634.208 639.000 651.322 663.883 676.685 689.734 703.035 715.088 727.481 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 622.439 624.277 626.850 630.159 634.208 639.000 651.322 663.883 676.685 689.734 703.035 715.088 727.481 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 622.439 624.277 626.850 630.159 634.208 639.000 651.322 663.883 676.685 689.734 703.035 715.088 727.481 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 622.439 624.277 626.850 630.159 634.208 639.000 651.322 663.883 676.685 689.734 703.035 715.088 727.481
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 4.956.055 5.022.653 5.092.019 5.162.269 5.233.715 5.306.382 5.380.293 5.455.472 5.531.945 5.609.738 5.688.876 5.769.387 5.851.298 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.956.057 5.022.654 5.092.020 5.165.869 5.242.883 5.320.772 5.399.609 5.479.301 5.560.068 5.641.856 5.724.674 5.808.588 5.893.678 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.956.057 5.022.654 5.092.020 5.163.458 5.235.161 5.304.606 5.374.798 5.445.598 5.517.518 5.590.419 5.664.446 5.739.774 5.816.582 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.956.057 5.022.654 5.092.020 5.163.905 5.237.239 5.310.525 5.384.905 5.460.312 5.536.940 5.614.765 5.693.812 5.774.149 5.855.841
EU15 Baseline 4.387.381 4.446.809 4.508.450 4.570.474 4.633.560 4.697.730 4.763.006 4.829.409 4.896.963 4.965.690 5.035.613 5.106.757 5.179.148 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.387.382 4.446.810 4.508.451 4.573.589 4.641.384 4.709.869 4.779.194 4.849.288 4.920.363 4.992.371 5.065.321 5.139.268 5.214.281 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.387.382 4.446.810 4.508.451 4.571.383 4.634.325 4.695.103 4.756.551 4.818.554 4.881.584 4.945.520 5.010.500 5.076.678 5.144.212 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.387.382 4.446.810 4.508.451 4.571.825 4.636.330 4.700.721 4.766.087 4.832.376 4.899.776 4.968.263 5.037.864 5.108.640 5.180.648
EU10 Baseline 568.674 575.843 583.569 591.795 600.155 608.652 617.287 626.063 634.982 644.048 653.263 662.630 672.151 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 568.675 575.844 583.570 592.280 601.499 610.903 620.415 630.014 639.705 649.485 659.353 669.319 679.397 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 568.675 575.844 583.570 592.075 600.836 609.503 618.246 627.044 635.934 644.899 653.946 663.096 672.370 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 568.675 575.844 583.570 592.079 600.908 609.805 618.818 627.936 637.164 646.502 655.948 665.510 675.193
AT Baseline 77.456 78.838 80.270 81.423 82.596 83.789 85.002 86.237 87.492 88.769 90.068 91.389 92.734 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 77.456 78.838 80.270 81.502 82.814 84.126 85.451 86.792 88.150 89.527 90.922 92.333 93.761 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 77.456 78.838 80.270 81.462 82.691 83.879 85.080 86.294 87.524 88.768 90.026 91.297 92.584 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 77.456 78.838 80.270 81.475 82.742 84.003 85.281 86.576 87.890 89.221 90.571 91.936 93.318
BE Baseline 118.070 119.840 121.653 122.966 124.296 125.643 127.007 128.388 129.788 131.206 132.642 134.097 135.571 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 118.071 119.841 121.654 123.063 124.622 126.188 127.763 129.341 130.912 132.474 134.029 135.581 137.137 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 118.071 119.841 121.654 122.998 124.425 125.792 127.168 128.548 129.928 131.305 132.682 134.067 135.463 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 118.071 119.841 121.654 123.010 124.478 125.931 127.398 128.874 130.356 131.841 133.332 134.828 136.331
CZ Baseline 83.054 86.759 90.715 92.931 95.204 97.537 99.931 102.387 104.908 107.494 110.149 112.873 115.668 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 83.054 86.759 90.715 92.949 95.243 97.582 99.979 102.435 104.960 107.549 110.205 112.927 115.716 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 83.054 86.759 90.715 92.896 95.093 97.276 99.513 101.804 104.163 106.577 109.040 111.543 114.081 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 83.054 86.759 90.715 92.909 95.140 97.400 99.718 102.093 104.536 107.041 109.606 112.228 114.907
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 931.435 947.430 963.787978.538 993.541 1.008.802 1.024.325 1.040.116 1.056.180 1.072.522 1.089.149 1.106.065 1.123.278 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 931.435 947.430 963.787 979.511 995.799 1.012.127 1.028.634 1.045.314 1.062.210 1.079.316 1.096.623 1.114.144 1.131.901 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 931.435 947.430 963.787 978.895 993.863 1.008.137 1.022.565 1.037.131 1.051.925 1.066.933 1.082.168 1.097.669 1.113.474 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 931.435 947.430 963.787 979.065 994.553 1.009.925 1.025.521 1.041.336 1.057.397 1.073.707 1.090.259 1.107.066 1.124.144
DK Baseline 61.475 61.976 62.694 63.031 63.371 63.715 64.062 64.413 64.767 65.124 65.486 65.850 66.219 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 61.475 61.976 62.694 63.116 63.560 64.016 64.462 64.898 65.327 65.756 66.184 66.615 67.047 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 61.475 61.976 62.694 63.108 63.535 63.961 64.377 64.781 65.181 65.578 65.975 66.372 66.771 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 61.475 61.976 62.694 63.098 63.510 63.925 64.334 64.737 65.137 65.536 65.935 66.334 66.734
ES Baseline 371.747 378.258 385.083392.974 401.038 409.279 417.701 426.308 435.105 444.095 453.284 462.676 472.276 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 371.747 378.258 385.083 393.115 401.429 409.917 418.573 427.396 436.418 445.634 455.052 464.679 474.521 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 371.747 378.258 385.083 392.978 400.972 408.940 417.054 425.307 433.758 442.386 451.206 460.231 469.467 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 371.747 378.258 385.083 392.996 401.074 409.260 417.620 426.153 434.890 443.824 452.966 462.321 471.896
FI Baseline 60.637 61.179 61.838 62.862 63.904 64.965 66.046 67.146 68.267 69.408 70.570 71.754 72.959 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 60.637 61.179 61.838 62.946 64.115 65.313 66.530 67.765 69.017 70.283 71.559 72.846 74.143 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 60.637 61.179 61.838 62.931 64.060 65.191 66.339 67.499 68.673 69.858 71.051 72.252 73.467 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 60.637 61.179 61.838 62.931 64.064 65.215 66.384 67.572 68.777 69.998 71.231 72.476 73.736
FR Baseline 782.445 789.951 797.643807.443 817.385 827.473 837.708 848.094 858.634 869.329 880.183 891.200 902.382 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 782.445 789.951 797.643 807.745 818.245 828.728 839.329 850.041 860.898 871.896 883.041 894.339 905.801 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 782.445 789.951 797.643 807.308 816.841 825.816 834.893 844.056 853.386 862.875 872.551 882.444 892.588 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 782.445 789.951 797.643 807.443 817.378 827.184 837.132 847.220 857.486 867.924 878.546 889.361 900.382
GR Baseline 89.125 89.204 89.381 90.734 92.110 93.509 94.932 96.379 97.850 99.347 100.869 102.416 103.990 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 89.125 89.204 89.381 90.787 92.271 93.796 95.343 96.909 98.500 100.113 101.748 103.407 105.087 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 89.125 89.204 89.381 90.778 92.229 93.694 95.174 96.667 98.183 99.718 101.273 102.847 104.442 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 89.125 89.204 89.381 90.775 92.221 93.692 95.185 96.698 98.233 99.792 101.372 102.974 104.600
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 56.771 58.798 61.030 62.272 63.548 64.857 66.201 67.582 68.999 70.454 71.949 73.484 75.060 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 56.771 58.798 61.030 62.293 63.593 64.926 66.297 67.707 69.166 70.672 72.227 73.831 75.499 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 56.771 58.798 61.030 62.261 63.504 64.738 66.000 67.286 68.604 69.947 71.311 72.697 74.127 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 56.771 58.798 61.030 62.268 63.529 64.808 66.121 67.466 68.851 70.274 71.737 73.241 74.802
IE Baseline 41.479 42.236 43.012 44.183 45.387 46.625 47.899 49.209 50.557 51.943 53.369 54.835 56.343 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 41.479 42.236 43.012 44.251 45.547 46.877 48.238 49.630 51.054 52.512 54.002 55.525 57.084 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 41.479 42.236 43.012 44.234 45.486 46.740 48.022 49.329 50.667 52.038 53.440 54.876 56.349 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 41.479 42.236 43.012 44.235 45.498 46.784 48.101 49.449 50.830 52.244 53.691 55.173 56.692
IT Baseline 755.474 762.891 770.417775.277 780.184 785.139 790.143 795.196 800.298 805.450 810.654 815.908 821.215 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 755.474 762.891 770.417 775.570 780.957 786.380 791.814 797.246 802.721 808.218 813.750 819.319 824.935 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 755.474 762.891 770.417 775.277 780.056 784.506 788.956 793.376 797.846 802.330 806.855 811.433 816.082 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 755.474 762.891 770.417 775.317 780.257 785.112 790.005 794.918 799.892 804.910 809.983 815.116 820.314
LU Baseline 5.686 5.762 5.841 5.898 5.956 6.016 6.075 6.136 6.198 6.260 6.323 6.387 6.452 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.686 5.762 5.841 5.907 5.979 6.047 6.115 6.182 6.249 6.314 6.379 6.443 6.507 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.686 5.762 5.841 5.901 5.961 6.011 6.062 6.114 6.167 6.221 6.277 6.336 6.396 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.686 5.762 5.841 5.904 5.971 6.033 6.096 6.159 6.222 6.285 6.348 6.411 6.475
NL Baseline 158.466 161.036 163.673166.146 168.661 171.219 173.821 176.467 179.159 181.897 184.682 187.515 190.396 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 158.466 161.036 163.673 166.262 168.967 171.736 174.546 177.393 180.282 183.211 186.177 189.180 192.222 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 158.466 161.036 163.673 166.205 168.782 171.339 173.920 176.519 179.152 181.812 184.506 187.237 190.015 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 158.466 161.036 163.673 166.203 168.795 171.413 174.070 176.763 179.498 182.274 185.090 187.949 190.853
PL Baseline 213.313 222.396 232.032238.786 245.752 252.935 260.343 267.983 275.864 283.992 292.376 301.024 309.946 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 213.313 222.396 232.032 238.808 245.777 252.897 260.227 267.774 275.558 283.564 291.783 300.215 308.895 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 213.313 222.396 232.032 238.654 245.324 251.973 258.823 265.853 273.072 280.435 287.910 295.492 303.229 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 213.313 222.396 232.032 238.706 245.509 252.425 259.552 266.884 274.432 282.175 290.103 298.216 306.547
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 93.012 92.772 92.553 93.827 95.125 96.445 97.789 99.157 100.550 101.968 103.411 104.881 106.377 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 93.012 92.772 92.553 93.858 95.226 96.633 98.056 99.491 100.945 102.413 103.899 105.405 106.935 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 93.012 92.772 92.553 93.834 95.131 96.412 97.699 98.987 100.294 101.617 102.964 104.342 105.752 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 93.012 92.772 92.553 93.831 95.131 96.442 97.769 99.110 100.473 101.857 103.267 104.704 106.172
SE Baseline 100.652 102.112 103.819105.426 107.061 108.724 110.416 112.137 113.888 115.670 117.484 119.329 121.206 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 100.652 102.112 103.819 105.557 107.369 109.221 111.088 112.968 114.864 116.780 118.715 120.674 122.659 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 100.652 102.112 103.819 105.520 107.249 108.967 110.699 112.442 114.203 115.981 117.775 119.588 121.423 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 100.652 102.112 103.819 105.517 107.252 109.004 110.778 112.572 114.387 116.225 118.084 119.966 121.874
SI Baseline 11.397 11.662 11.946 12.267 12.598 12.939 13.291 13.654 14.028 14.414 14.812 15.222 15.646 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.397 11.662 11.946 12.272 12.608 12.950 13.304 13.669 14.047 14.438 14.842 15.260 15.694 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.397 11.662 11.946 12.264 12.581 12.894 13.217 13.551 13.898 14.258 14.632 15.019 15.421 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.397 11.662 11.946 12.267 12.593 12.923 13.265 13.618 13.985 14.364 14.757 15.164 15.587
UK Baseline 740.223 753.322 766.788779.746 792.944 806.387 820.079 834.026 848.231 862.701 877.441 892.455 907.750 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 740.223 753.322 766.788 780.399 794.484 808.766 823.251 837.921 852.817 867.925 883.243 898.779 914.540 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 740.223 753.322 766.788 779.954 793.043 805.715 818.544 831.504 844.696 858.100 871.751 885.686 899.938 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 740.223 753.322 766.788 780.027 793.408 806.798 820.412 834.237 848.309 862.624 877.191 892.022 907.128
vkm of small and medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 2.626.878 2.647.644 2.678.823 2.721.940 2.774.591 2.833.151 2.874.898 2.916.940 2.958.246 3.002.365 3.046.747 3.081.189 3.117.100 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.626.878 2.647.645 2.678.824 2.721.942 2.774.592 2.833.152 2.874.899 2.916.941 2.958.247 3.002.366 3.046.749 3.081.190 3.117.101 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.626.878 2.647.645 2.678.824 2.721.942 2.774.592 2.833.152 2.874.899 2.916.941 2.958.247 3.002.366 3.046.749 3.081.190 3.117.101 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.626.878 2.647.645 2.678.824 2.721.942 2.774.592 2.833.152 2.874.899 2.916.941 2.958.247 3.002.366 3.046.749 3.081.190 3.117.101
EU15 Baseline 2.317.517 2.333.478 2.358.945 2.394.520 2.439.167 2.491.417 2.527.400 2.563.851 2.600.313 2.638.394 2.676.953 2.707.793 2.739.794 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.317.517 2.333.479 2.358.946 2.394.521 2.439.167 2.491.417 2.527.400 2.563.851 2.600.314 2.638.395 2.676.953 2.707.793 2.739.795 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.317.517 2.333.479 2.358.946 2.394.521 2.439.167 2.491.417 2.527.400 2.563.851 2.600.314 2.638.395 2.676.953 2.707.793 2.739.795 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.317.517 2.333.479 2.358.946 2.394.521 2.439.167 2.491.417 2.527.400 2.563.851 2.600.314 2.638.395 2.676.953 2.707.793 2.739.795
EU10 Baseline 309.361 314.165 319.878 327.420 335.424 341.734 347.498 353.089 357.933 363.971 369.794 373.396 377.305 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 309.361 314.166 319.878 327.421 335.425 341.735 347.499 353.090 357.933 363.971 369.795 373.397 377.306 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 309.361 314.166 319.878 327.421 335.425 341.735 347.499 353.090 357.933 363.971 369.795 373.397 377.306 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 309.361 314.166 319.878 327.421 335.425 341.735 347.499 353.090 357.933 363.971 369.795 373.397 377.306
AT Baseline 43.886 43.381 43.088 42.996 43.094 43.373 43.906 44.446 44.992 45.545 46.104 46.732 47.384 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 43.886 43.381 43.088 42.996 43.094 43.373 43.906 44.446 44.992 45.545 46.104 46.732 47.384 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 43.886 43.381 43.088 42.996 43.094 43.373 43.906 44.446 44.992 45.545 46.104 46.732 47.384 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 43.886 43.381 43.088 42.996 43.094 43.373 43.906 44.446 44.992 45.545 46.104 46.732 47.384
BE Baseline 67.684 68.588 69.915 72.415 74.954 75.754 76.975 77.986 78.312 79.546 80.531 81.633 82.762 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 67.684 68.588 69.916 72.416 74.955 75.755 76.976 77.987 78.313 79.547 80.531 81.634 82.762 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 67.684 68.588 69.916 72.416 74.955 75.755 76.976 77.987 78.313 79.547 80.531 81.634 82.762 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 67.684 68.588 69.916 72.416 74.955 75.755 76.976 77.987 78.313 79.547 80.531 81.634 82.762
CZ Baseline 25.200 26.016 26.859 27.729 28.628 29.555 30.374 31.216 32.081 32.970 33.883 34.916 36.020 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 25.200 26.016 26.859 27.729 28.628 29.555 30.374 31.216 32.081 32.970 33.883 34.916 36.020 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 25.200 26.016 26.859 27.729 28.628 29.555 30.374 31.216 32.081 32.970 33.883 34.916 36.020 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 25.200 26.016 26.859 27.729 28.628 29.555 30.374 31.216 32.081 32.970 33.883 34.916 36.020
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 553.176 555.419 557.757560.191 562.720 565.345 571.578 577.880 584.252 590.693 597.206 606.931 616.869 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 553.176 555.419 557.757 560.191 562.720 565.345 571.578 577.880 584.252 590.693 597.206 606.931 616.869 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 553.176 555.419 557.757 560.191 562.720 565.345 571.578 577.880 584.252 590.693 597.206 606.931 616.869 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 553.176 555.419 557.757 560.191 562.720 565.345 571.578 577.880 584.252 590.693 597.206 606.931 616.869
DK Baseline 37.708 37.726 37.932 38.334 38.942 39.765 39.999 40.235 40.473 40.712 40.952 40.946 41.033 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 37.708 37.726 37.932 38.334 38.942 39.765 39.999 40.235 40.473 40.712 40.952 40.946 41.033 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 37.708 37.726 37.932 38.334 38.942 39.765 39.999 40.235 40.473 40.712 40.952 40.946 41.033 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 37.708 37.726 37.932 38.334 38.942 39.765 39.999 40.235 40.473 40.712 40.952 40.946 41.033
ES Baseline 180.134 182.747 186.667191.995 198.848 207.358 214.191 221.248 228.538 236.068 243.847 247.377 251.059 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 180.134 182.747 186.667 191.995 198.848 207.358 214.191 221.248 228.538 236.068 243.847 247.377 251.059 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 180.134 182.747 186.667 191.995 198.848 207.358 214.191 221.248 228.538 236.068 243.847 247.377 251.059 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 180.134 182.747 186.667 191.995 198.848 207.358 214.191 221.248 228.538 236.068 243.847 247.377 251.059
FI Baseline 52.484 44.664 39.999 37.987 38.316 40.831 41.384 41.946 42.515 43.092 43.676 43.837 44.056 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 52.484 44.664 39.999 37.987 38.316 40.831 41.384 41.946 42.515 43.092 43.676 43.837 44.056 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 52.484 44.664 39.999 37.987 38.316 40.831 41.384 41.946 42.515 43.092 43.676 43.837 44.056 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 52.484 44.664 39.999 37.987 38.316 40.831 41.384 41.946 42.515 43.092 43.676 43.837 44.056
FR Baseline 372.984 377.303 382.424388.365 395.150 402.800 409.633 416.582 423.649 430.835 438.144 441.782 445.518 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 372.984 377.303 382.424 388.365 395.150 402.800 409.633 416.582 423.649 430.835 438.144 441.782 445.518 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 372.984 377.303 382.424 388.365 395.150 402.800 409.633 416.582 423.649 430.835 438.144 441.782 445.518 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 372.984 377.303 382.424 388.365 395.150 402.800 409.633 416.582 423.649 430.835 438.144 441.782 445.518
GR Baseline 31.776 33.495 35.321 37.264 39.331 41.533 42.790 44.085 45.419 46.794 48.210 47.992 47.831 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 31.776 33.495 35.321 37.264 39.331 41.533 42.790 44.085 45.419 46.794 48.210 47.992 47.831 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 31.776 33.495 35.321 37.264 39.331 41.533 42.790 44.085 45.419 46.794 48.210 47.992 47.831 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 31.776 33.495 35.321 37.264 39.331 41.533 42.790 44.085 45.419 46.794 48.210 47.992 47.831
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 20.503 20.573 20.643 20.714 20.785 20.856 21.306 21.765 22.234 22.714 23.204 23.686 24.237 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 20.503 20.573 20.643 20.714 20.785 20.856 21.306 21.765 22.234 22.714 23.204 23.686 24.237 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 20.503 20.573 20.643 20.714 20.785 20.856 21.306 21.765 22.234 22.714 23.204 23.686 24.237 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 20.503 20.573 20.643 20.714 20.785 20.856 21.306 21.765 22.234 22.714 23.204 23.686 24.237
IE Baseline 14.603 15.504 16.522 17.674 18.983 20.472 21.160 21.870 22.604 23.363 24.148 24.546 24.955 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.603 15.504 16.522 17.674 18.983 20.472 21.160 21.870 22.604 23.363 24.148 24.546 24.955 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.603 15.504 16.522 17.674 18.983 20.472 21.160 21.870 22.604 23.363 24.148 24.546 24.955 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.603 15.504 16.522 17.674 18.983 20.472 21.160 21.870 22.604 23.363 24.148 24.546 24.955
IT Baseline 387.745 394.052 402.539413.403 426.869 443.189 444.080 444.972 445.866 446.761 447.659 451.462 455.325 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 387.745 394.052 402.539 413.403 426.869 443.189 444.080 444.972 445.866 446.761 447.659 451.462 455.325 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 387.745 394.052 402.539 413.403 426.869 443.189 444.080 444.972 445.866 446.761 447.659 451.462 455.325 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 387.745 394.052 402.539 413.403 426.869 443.189 444.080 444.972 445.866 446.761 447.659 451.462 455.325
LU Baseline 3.732 3.645 3.607 3.613 3.661 3.748 3.803 3.860 3.917 3.976 4.035 4.085 4.137 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.732 3.645 3.607 3.613 3.661 3.748 3.803 3.860 3.917 3.976 4.035 4.085 4.137 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.732 3.645 3.607 3.613 3.661 3.748 3.803 3.860 3.917 3.976 4.035 4.085 4.137 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.732 3.645 3.607 3.613 3.661 3.748 3.803 3.860 3.917 3.976 4.035 4.085 4.137
NL Baseline 95.778 96.865 98.054 99.349 100.752 102.266 103.682 105.117 106.573 108.048 109.544 111.149 112.796 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 95.778 96.865 98.054 99.349 100.752 102.266 103.682 105.117 106.573 108.048 109.544 111.149 112.796 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 95.778 96.865 98.054 99.349 100.752 102.266 103.682 105.117 106.573 108.048 109.544 111.149 112.796 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 95.778 96.865 98.054 99.349 100.752 102.266 103.682 105.117 106.573 108.048 109.544 111.149 112.796
PL Baseline 52.197 55.095 58.267 61.743 65.553 69.733 73.068 76.563 80.225 84.062 88.082 90.865 93.803 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 52.197 55.095 58.267 61.743 65.553 69.733 73.068 76.563 80.225 84.062 88.082 90.865 93.803 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 52.197 55.095 58.267 61.743 65.553 69.733 73.068 76.563 80.225 84.062 88.082 90.865 93.803 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 52.197 55.095 58.267 61.743 65.553 69.733 73.068 76.563 80.225 84.062 88.082 90.865 93.803
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 41.578 44.499 47.636 51.003 54.619 58.503 59.466 60.444 61.439 62.449 63.477 63.235 63.008 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 41.578 44.499 47.636 51.003 54.619 58.503 59.466 60.444 61.439 62.449 63.477 63.235 63.008 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 41.578 44.499 47.636 51.003 54.619 58.503 59.466 60.444 61.439 62.449 63.477 63.235 63.008 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 41.578 44.499 47.636 51.003 54.619 58.503 59.466 60.444 61.439 62.449 63.477 63.235 63.008
SE Baseline 58.438 58.668 59.009 59.457 60.011 60.669 61.501 62.345 63.200 64.068 64.947 65.411 66.002 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 58.438 58.668 59.009 59.457 60.011 60.669 61.501 62.345 63.200 64.068 64.947 65.411 66.002 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 58.438 58.668 59.009 59.457 60.011 60.669 61.501 62.345 63.200 64.068 64.947 65.411 66.002 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 58.438 58.668 59.009 59.457 60.011 60.669 61.501 62.345 63.200 64.068 64.947 65.411 66.002
SI Baseline 4.795 4.762 4.730 4.699 4.667 4.636 4.697 4.760 4.823 4.887 4.953 5.043 5.143 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.795 4.762 4.730 4.699 4.667 4.636 4.697 4.760 4.823 4.887 4.953 5.043 5.143 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.795 4.762 4.730 4.699 4.667 4.636 4.697 4.760 4.823 4.887 4.953 5.043 5.143 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.795 4.762 4.730 4.699 4.667 4.636 4.697 4.760 4.823 4.887 4.953 5.043 5.143
UK Baseline 375.812 376.922 378.475380.473 382.918 385.811 393.251 400.834 408.564 416.443 424.474 430.673 437.059 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 375.812 376.922 378.475 380.473 382.918 385.811 393.251 400.834 408.564 416.443 424.474 430.673 437.059 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 375.812 376.922 378.475 380.473 382.918 385.811 393.251 400.834 408.564 416.443 424.474 430.673 437.059 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 375.812 376.922 378.475 380.473 382.918 385.811 393.251 400.834 408.564 416.443 424.474 430.673 437.059
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 3.154.555 3.193.647 3.234.496 3.277.275 3.320.767 3.364.987 3.409.949 3.455.666 3.502.153 3.549.426 3.597.500 3.646.390 3.696.112 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.154.556 3.193.649 3.234.497 3.279.506 3.326.434 3.373.870 3.421.862 3.470.352 3.519.473 3.569.192 3.619.512 3.670.474 3.722.127 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.154.556 3.193.649 3.234.497 3.278.026 3.321.704 3.363.975 3.406.686 3.449.752 3.493.481 3.537.787 3.582.756 3.628.494 3.675.113 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.154.556 3.193.649 3.234.497 3.278.303 3.322.984 3.367.613 3.412.889 3.458.773 3.505.380 3.552.693 3.600.728 3.649.525 3.699.122
EU15 Baseline 2.773.018 2.807.538 2.843.449 2.880.997 2.919.177 2.958.000 2.997.479 3.037.627 3.078.457 3.119.983 3.162.217 3.205.175 3.248.870 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.773.019 2.807.538 2.843.449 2.882.913 2.923.973 2.965.428 3.007.375 3.049.769 3.092.740 3.136.257 3.180.324 3.224.976 3.270.253 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.773.019 2.807.538 2.843.449 2.881.571 2.919.684 2.956.463 2.993.638 3.031.135 3.069.241 3.107.881 3.147.135 3.187.097 3.227.863 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.773.019 2.807.538 2.843.449 2.881.844 2.920.912 2.959.892 2.999.448 3.039.549 3.080.306 3.121.704 3.163.758 3.206.504 3.249.977
EU10 Baseline 381.537 386.110 391.047 396.278 401.591 406.987 412.469 418.038 423.696 429.443 435.283 441.215 447.242 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 381.538 386.110 391.048 396.592 402.461 408.441 414.487 420.583 426.733 432.935 439.188 445.498 451.875 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 381.538 386.110 391.048 396.455 402.019 407.511 413.049 418.617 424.240 429.906 435.621 441.397 447.250 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 381.538 386.110 391.048 396.459 402.072 407.721 413.441 419.224 425.074 430.990 436.970 443.020 449.145
AT Baseline 48.062 48.766 49.497 50.154 50.822 51.501 52.191 52.892 53.604 54.329 55.065 55.813 56.574 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 48.062 48.766 49.497 50.201 50.953 51.703 52.460 53.225 53.999 54.783 55.576 56.377 57.188 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 48.062 48.766 49.497 50.177 50.879 51.554 52.237 52.926 53.623 54.328 55.039 55.758 56.484 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 48.062 48.766 49.497 50.185 50.910 51.630 52.358 53.096 53.844 54.601 55.367 56.141 56.925
BE Baseline 83.917 85.100 86.311 87.209 88.118 89.039 89.970 90.914 91.869 92.836 93.815 94.807 95.811 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 83.918 85.100 86.312 87.276 88.342 89.412 90.489 91.566 92.638 93.704 94.764 95.822 96.882 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 83.918 85.100 86.312 87.231 88.207 89.140 90.080 91.021 91.963 92.902 93.840 94.783 95.734 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 83.918 85.100 86.312 87.240 88.243 89.236 90.238 91.245 92.256 93.270 94.286 95.305 96.329
CZ Baseline 37.199 38.460 39.808 40.701 41.617 42.554 43.515 44.500 45.509 46.542 47.601 48.687 49.799 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 37.199 38.460 39.808 40.709 41.633 42.573 43.534 44.518 45.528 46.562 47.621 48.704 49.813 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 37.199 38.460 39.808 40.685 41.566 42.436 43.326 44.237 45.174 46.131 47.105 48.093 49.092 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 37.199 38.460 39.808 40.691 41.587 42.492 43.419 44.367 45.341 46.339 47.358 48.399 49.459
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 627.026 637.407 648.019657.582 667.304 677.187 687.236 697.453 707.842 718.405 729.147 740.071 751.181 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 627.026 637.407 648.019 658.220 668.781 679.354 690.039 700.830 711.756 722.813 733.993 745.307 756.766 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 627.026 637.407 648.019 657.813 667.503 676.724 686.040 695.442 704.989 714.669 724.493 734.484 744.669 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 627.026 637.407 648.019 657.928 667.965 677.916 688.007 698.235 708.618 719.158 729.848 740.699 751.719
DK Baseline 41.228 41.555 42.050 42.266 42.484 42.705 42.928 43.153 43.380 43.610 43.842 44.077 44.314 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 41.228 41.555 42.050 42.319 42.603 42.893 43.178 43.456 43.731 44.005 44.279 44.555 44.832 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 41.228 41.555 42.050 42.314 42.587 42.859 43.124 43.383 43.639 43.894 44.148 44.403 44.659 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 41.228 41.555 42.050 42.308 42.571 42.836 43.098 43.356 43.612 43.867 44.123 44.380 44.636
ES Baseline 254.905 258.927 263.140268.350 273.671 279.107 284.658 290.329 296.122 302.039 308.084 314.259 320.568 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 254.905 258.927 263.140 268.442 273.925 279.520 285.223 291.033 296.971 303.034 309.226 315.552 322.017 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 254.905 258.927 263.140 268.353 273.628 278.885 284.235 289.676 295.244 300.925 306.731 312.668 318.741 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 254.905 258.927 263.140 268.364 273.694 279.093 284.603 290.225 295.978 301.858 307.872 314.022 320.314
FI Baseline 44.340 44.697 45.137 45.863 46.602 47.354 48.120 48.900 49.694 50.502 51.325 52.163 53.016 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 44.340 44.697 45.137 45.922 46.750 47.598 48.459 49.332 50.217 51.112 52.015 52.924 53.841 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 44.340 44.697 45.137 45.912 46.711 47.512 48.324 49.146 49.977 50.816 51.660 52.510 53.370 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 44.340 44.697 45.137 45.911 46.714 47.529 48.357 49.198 50.050 50.913 51.786 52.667 53.557
FR Baseline 449.354 453.291 457.333462.814 468.374 474.013 479.733 485.535 491.421 497.392 503.450 509.597 515.834 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 449.354 453.291 457.333 462.981 468.846 474.701 480.620 486.599 492.659 498.795 505.011 511.312 517.702 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 449.354 453.291 457.333 462.740 468.070 473.093 478.170 483.296 488.512 493.816 499.222 504.748 510.412 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 449.354 453.291 457.333 462.814 468.367 473.848 479.407 485.042 490.775 496.602 502.530 508.564 514.710
GR Baseline 47.726 47.678 47.689 48.340 49.002 49.675 50.359 51.054 51.760 52.478 53.207 53.949 54.702 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 47.726 47.678 47.689 48.367 49.083 49.819 50.564 51.318 52.083 52.859 53.644 54.440 55.246 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 47.726 47.678 47.689 48.363 49.062 49.767 50.479 51.196 51.923 52.659 53.404 54.158 54.921 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 47.726 47.678 47.689 48.361 49.058 49.766 50.485 51.213 51.950 52.699 53.457 54.225 55.004
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 24.857 25.548 26.313 26.760 27.219 27.689 28.170 28.664 29.170 29.689 30.221 30.767 31.326 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 24.857 25.548 26.313 26.769 27.238 27.718 28.211 28.717 29.240 29.780 30.337 30.911 31.509 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 24.857 25.548 26.313 26.755 27.199 27.636 28.081 28.534 28.998 29.468 29.945 30.427 30.925 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 24.857 25.548 26.313 26.758 27.210 27.667 28.134 28.613 29.105 29.610 30.128 30.661 31.214
IE Baseline 25.374 25.804 26.245 26.940 27.654 28.389 29.144 29.921 30.720 31.541 32.385 33.254 34.147 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 25.374 25.804 26.245 26.979 27.746 28.533 29.339 30.162 31.004 31.866 32.747 33.648 34.570 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 25.374 25.804 26.245 26.969 27.711 28.455 29.214 29.989 30.783 31.595 32.426 33.277 34.150 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 25.374 25.804 26.245 26.970 27.718 28.480 29.260 30.058 30.876 31.713 32.570 33.447 34.345
IT Baseline 459.249 463.233 467.279469.894 472.535 475.203 477.896 480.617 483.365 486.140 488.942 491.773 494.632 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 459.249 463.233 467.279 470.063 472.979 475.913 478.852 481.788 484.747 487.717 490.706 493.715 496.749 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 459.249 463.233 467.279 469.893 472.456 474.828 477.198 479.550 481.930 484.317 486.727 489.167 491.647 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 459.249 463.233 467.279 469.916 472.574 475.181 477.808 480.445 483.117 485.812 488.538 491.297 494.092
LU Baseline 4.190 4.245 4.301 4.344 4.387 4.430 4.474 4.519 4.564 4.610 4.656 4.703 4.751 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.190 4.245 4.301 4.350 4.402 4.452 4.502 4.551 4.600 4.648 4.695 4.743 4.790 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.190 4.245 4.301 4.346 4.390 4.427 4.465 4.503 4.542 4.583 4.624 4.668 4.712 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.190 4.245 4.301 4.348 4.397 4.443 4.489 4.535 4.582 4.628 4.674 4.721 4.767
NL Baseline 114.488 116.224 118.007119.733 121.488 123.272 125.086 126.931 128.807 130.714 132.654 134.626 136.632 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 114.488 116.224 118.007 119.815 121.702 123.634 125.593 127.577 129.590 131.630 133.695 135.786 137.903 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 114.488 116.224 118.007 119.774 121.572 123.355 125.154 126.965 128.799 130.652 132.527 134.428 136.361 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 114.488 116.224 118.007 119.773 121.582 123.408 125.261 127.138 129.044 130.978 132.939 134.930 136.951
PL Baseline 96.904 100.178 103.633106.358 109.161 112.046 115.014 118.069 121.212 124.447 127.777 131.204 134.731 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 96.904 100.178 103.633 106.367 109.172 112.025 114.957 117.967 121.066 124.244 127.498 130.826 134.245 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 96.904 100.178 103.633 106.296 108.963 111.601 114.313 117.090 119.933 122.823 125.744 128.693 131.693 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 96.904 100.178 103.633 106.320 109.049 111.810 114.649 117.563 120.556 123.617 126.741 129.929 133.193
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 62.797 62.601 62.420 63.193 63.978 64.777 65.589 66.415 67.255 68.110 68.980 69.865 70.765 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 62.797 62.601 62.420 63.213 64.043 64.897 65.760 66.629 67.508 68.394 69.290 70.198 71.119 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 62.797 62.601 62.420 63.197 63.981 64.754 65.529 66.303 67.088 67.881 68.690 69.516 70.361 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 62.797 62.601 62.420 63.195 63.982 64.774 65.575 66.383 67.205 68.038 68.886 69.750 70.632
SE Baseline 66.730 67.608 68.652 69.665 70.696 71.744 72.809 73.893 74.995 76.116 77.256 78.415 79.594 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 66.730 67.608 68.652 69.748 70.891 72.057 73.233 74.416 75.610 76.814 78.031 79.261 80.507 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 66.730 67.608 68.652 69.725 70.815 71.897 72.987 74.084 75.192 76.310 77.438 78.576 79.728 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 66.730 67.608 68.652 69.723 70.817 71.921 73.038 74.168 75.310 76.466 77.634 78.817 80.015
SI Baseline 5.251 5.368 5.495 5.641 5.792 5.948 6.109 6.274 6.445 6.621 6.802 6.989 7.182 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.251 5.368 5.495 5.644 5.797 5.953 6.115 6.281 6.453 6.632 6.816 7.006 7.204 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.251 5.368 5.495 5.640 5.785 5.927 6.075 6.227 6.386 6.550 6.720 6.896 7.079 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.251 5.368 5.495 5.641 5.790 5.941 6.097 6.258 6.425 6.598 6.777 6.963 7.155
UK Baseline 443.633 450.402 457.368464.649 472.061 479.606 487.285 495.103 503.061 511.161 519.408 527.803 536.350 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 443.633 450.402 457.368 465.018 472.928 480.942 489.064 497.285 505.627 514.083 522.651 531.336 540.141 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 443.633 450.402 457.368 464.765 472.111 479.214 486.400 493.656 501.038 508.535 516.167 523.954 531.914 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 443.633 450.402 457.368 464.808 472.321 479.832 487.464 495.210 503.090 511.102 519.250 527.541 535.981
pkm total 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 5.770.000 5.856.511 5.957.779 6.078.151 6.214.935 6.361.688 6.455.084 6.551.630 6.648.427 6.752.898 6.855.424 6.946.832 7.042.631 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.770.000 5.856.509 5.957.777 6.078.149 6.214.933 6.361.686 6.455.082 6.551.628 6.648.425 6.752.896 6.855.421 6.946.829 7.042.628 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.770.000 5.856.509 5.957.777 6.078.149 6.214.933 6.361.686 6.455.082 6.551.628 6.648.425 6.752.896 6.855.421 6.946.829 7.042.628 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.770.000 5.856.509 5.957.777 6.078.149 6.214.933 6.361.686 6.455.082 6.551.628 6.648.425 6.752.896 6.855.421 6.946.829 7.042.628
EU15 Baseline 5.093.827 5.162.947 5.247.287 5.348.842 5.466.633 5.598.172 5.679.042 5.762.311 5.846.701 5.935.588 6.024.669 6.105.386 6.189.588 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.093.827 5.162.946 5.247.286 5.348.841 5.466.632 5.598.170 5.679.041 5.762.310 5.846.700 5.935.587 6.024.668 6.105.384 6.189.587 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.093.827 5.162.946 5.247.286 5.348.841 5.466.632 5.598.170 5.679.041 5.762.310 5.846.700 5.935.587 6.024.668 6.105.384 6.189.587 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.093.827 5.162.946 5.247.286 5.348.841 5.466.632 5.598.170 5.679.041 5.762.310 5.846.700 5.935.587 6.024.668 6.105.384 6.189.587
EU10 Baseline 676.172 693.564 710.492 729.309 748.303 763.516 776.042 789.319 801.726 817.310 830.755 841.447 853.043 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 676.172 693.562 710.490 729.308 748.302 763.515 776.041 789.318 801.725 817.309 830.753 841.445 853.041 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 676.172 693.562 710.490 729.308 748.302 763.515 776.041 789.318 801.725 817.309 830.753 841.445 853.041 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 676.172 693.562 710.490 729.308 748.302 763.515 776.041 789.318 801.725 817.309 830.753 841.445 853.041
AT Baseline 102.903 102.513 102.498 102.839 103.522 104.533 105.664 106.817 107.991 109.189 110.410 112.380 114.433 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 102.903 102.513 102.498 102.839 103.522 104.533 105.664 106.817 107.991 109.189 110.410 112.380 114.433 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 102.903 102.513 102.498 102.839 103.522 104.533 105.664 106.817 107.991 109.189 110.410 112.380 114.433 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 102.903 102.513 102.498 102.839 103.522 104.533 105.664 106.817 107.991 109.189 110.410 112.380 114.433
BE Baseline 130.392 134.722 137.843 141.642 144.670 143.634 146.040 148.798 150.572 154.672 156.730 158.857 161.085 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 130.392 134.721 137.842 141.641 144.669 143.633 146.039 148.797 150.571 154.671 156.729 158.856 161.084 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 130.392 134.721 137.842 141.641 144.669 143.633 146.039 148.797 150.571 154.671 156.729 158.856 161.084 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 130.392 134.721 137.842 141.641 144.669 143.633 146.039 148.797 150.571 154.671 156.729 158.856 161.084
CZ Baseline 91.796 92.830 94.001 95.306 96.740 98.302 100.768 103.302 105.906 108.581 111.331 114.707 118.353 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 91.796 92.830 94.001 95.306 96.740 98.302 100.768 103.302 105.906 108.581 111.331 114.707 118.353 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 91.796 92.830 94.001 95.306 96.740 98.302 100.768 103.302 105.906 108.581 111.331 114.707 118.353 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 91.796 92.830 94.001 95.306 96.740 98.302 100.768 103.302 105.906 108.581 111.331 114.707 118.353
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 1.116.508 1.121.260 1.126.335 1.131.740 1.137.483 1.143.573 1.155.922 1.168.471 1.181.223 1.194.184 1.207.356 1.228.032 1.249.174 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.116.508 1.121.260 1.126.335 1.131.740 1.137.483 1.143.573 1.155.922 1.168.471 1.181.223 1.194.184 1.207.356 1.228.032 1.249.174 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.116.508 1.121.260 1.126.335 1.131.740 1.137.483 1.143.573 1.155.922 1.168.471 1.181.223 1.194.184 1.207.356 1.228.032 1.249.174 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.116.508 1.121.260 1.126.335 1.131.740 1.137.483 1.143.573 1.155.922 1.168.471 1.181.223 1.194.184 1.207.356 1.228.032 1.249.174
DK Baseline 85.471 85.824 86.513 87.553 88.961 90.758 91.339 91.932 92.535 93.149 93.774 94.217 94.827 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 85.471 85.824 86.513 87.553 88.961 90.758 91.339 91.932 92.535 93.149 93.774 94.217 94.827 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 85.471 85.824 86.513 87.553 88.961 90.758 91.339 91.932 92.535 93.149 93.774 94.217 94.827 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 85.471 85.824 86.513 87.553 88.961 90.758 91.339 91.932 92.535 93.149 93.774 94.217 94.827
ES Baseline 414.281 427.287 442.926461.414 482.994 507.943 522.518 537.644 553.341 569.632 586.539 598.583 611.224 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 414.281 427.287 442.926 461.414 482.994 507.943 522.518 537.644 553.341 569.632 586.539 598.583 611.224 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 414.281 427.287 442.926 461.414 482.994 507.943 522.518 537.644 553.341 569.632 586.539 598.583 611.224 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 414.281 427.287 442.926 461.414 482.994 507.943 522.518 537.644 553.341 569.632 586.539 598.583 611.224
FI Baseline 93.921 84.185 78.924 77.490 79.498 84.792 85.887 87.003 88.142 89.302 90.486 91.038 91.715 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 93.921 84.185 78.924 77.490 79.498 84.792 85.887 87.003 88.142 89.302 90.486 91.038 91.715 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 93.921 84.185 78.924 77.490 79.498 84.792 85.887 87.003 88.142 89.302 90.486 91.038 91.715 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 93.921 84.185 78.924 77.490 79.498 84.792 85.887 87.003 88.142 89.302 90.486 91.038 91.715
FR Baseline 872.156 886.978 903.530921.860 942.025 964.082 979.215 994.642 1.010.370 1.026.405 1.042.753 1.054.183 1.065.996 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 872.156 886.978 903.530 921.860 942.025 964.082 979.215 994.642 1.010.370 1.026.405 1.042.753 1.054.183 1.065.996 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 872.156 886.978 903.530 921.860 942.025 964.082 979.215 994.642 1.010.370 1.026.405 1.042.753 1.054.183 1.065.996 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 872.156 886.978 903.530 921.860 942.025 964.082 979.215 994.642 1.010.370 1.026.405 1.042.753 1.054.183 1.065.996
GR Baseline 119.563 125.579 131.985138.808 146.082 153.838 158.119 162.547 167.126 171.863 176.763 177.259 177.958 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 119.563 125.579 131.985 138.808 146.082 153.838 158.119 162.547 167.126 171.863 176.763 177.259 177.958 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 119.563 125.579 131.985 138.808 146.082 153.838 158.119 162.547 167.126 171.863 176.763 177.259 177.958 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 119.563 125.579 131.985 138.808 146.082 153.838 158.119 162.547 167.126 171.863 176.763 177.259 177.958
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 82.870 83.490 84.167 84.897 85.677 86.504 87.852 89.243 90.678 92.158 93.686 94.963 96.507 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 82.870 83.490 84.167 84.897 85.677 86.504 87.852 89.243 90.678 92.158 93.686 94.963 96.507 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 82.870 83.490 84.167 84.897 85.677 86.504 87.852 89.243 90.678 92.158 93.686 94.963 96.507 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 82.870 83.490 84.167 84.897 85.677 86.504 87.852 89.243 90.678 92.158 93.686 94.963 96.507
IE Baseline 35.855 37.958 40.313 42.958 45.939 49.306 50.828 52.406 54.043 55.741 57.503 58.699 59.939 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 35.855 37.958 40.313 42.958 45.939 49.306 50.828 52.406 54.043 55.741 57.503 58.699 59.939 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 35.855 37.958 40.313 42.958 45.939 49.306 50.828 52.406 54.043 55.741 57.503 58.699 59.939 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 35.855 37.958 40.313 42.958 45.939 49.306 50.828 52.406 54.043 55.741 57.503 58.699 59.939
IT Baseline 897.846 914.959 936.045961.466 991.630 1.026.994 1.031.742 1.036.636 1.041.680 1.046.882 1.052.249 1.060.063 1.068.114 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 897.846 914.959 936.045 961.466 991.630 1.026.994 1.031.742 1.036.636 1.041.680 1.046.882 1.052.249 1.060.063 1.068.114 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 897.846 914.959 936.045 961.466 991.630 1.026.994 1.031.742 1.036.636 1.041.680 1.046.882 1.052.249 1.060.063 1.068.114 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 897.846 914.959 936.045 961.466 991.630 1.026.994 1.031.742 1.036.636 1.041.680 1.046.882 1.052.249 1.060.063 1.068.114
LU Baseline 6.878 6.797 6.785 6.836 6.945 7.110 7.238 7.370 7.507 7.647 7.792 7.886 7.985 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.878 6.797 6.785 6.836 6.945 7.110 7.238 7.370 7.507 7.647 7.792 7.886 7.985 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.878 6.797 6.785 6.836 6.945 7.110 7.238 7.370 7.507 7.647 7.792 7.886 7.985 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.878 6.797 6.785 6.836 6.945 7.110 7.238 7.370 7.507 7.647 7.792 7.886 7.985
NL Baseline 181.415 183.683 186.160188.857 191.785 194.957 196.477 198.065 199.721 201.447 203.243 207.669 212.283 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 181.415 183.683 186.160 188.857 191.785 194.957 196.477 198.065 199.721 201.447 203.243 207.669 212.283 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 181.415 183.683 186.160 188.857 191.785 194.957 196.477 198.065 199.721 201.447 203.243 207.669 212.283 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 181.415 183.683 186.160 188.857 191.785 194.957 196.477 198.065 199.721 201.447 203.243 207.669 212.283
PL Baseline 204.382 211.056 218.599227.055 236.481 246.946 255.804 265.094 274.836 285.051 295.759 303.900 312.695 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 204.382 211.056 218.599 227.055 236.481 246.946 255.804 265.094 274.836 285.051 295.759 303.900 312.695 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 204.382 211.056 218.599 227.055 236.481 246.946 255.804 265.094 274.836 285.051 295.759 303.900 312.695 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 204.382 211.056 218.599 227.055 236.481 246.946 255.804 265.094 274.836 285.051 295.759 303.900 312.695
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 94.853 99.795 105.111110.827 116.971 123.575 125.394 127.284 129.245 131.280 133.391 133.835 134.356 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 94.853 99.795 105.111 110.827 116.971 123.575 125.394 127.284 129.245 131.280 133.391 133.835 134.356 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 94.853 99.795 105.111 110.827 116.971 123.575 125.394 127.284 129.245 131.280 133.391 133.835 134.356 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 94.853 99.795 105.111 110.827 116.971 123.575 125.394 127.284 129.245 131.280 133.391 133.835 134.356
SE Baseline 123.092 124.738 126.616128.727 131.072 133.654 135.718 137.832 139.996 142.213 144.483 146.200 148.168 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 123.092 124.738 126.616 128.727 131.072 133.654 135.718 137.832 139.996 142.213 144.483 146.200 148.168 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 123.092 124.738 126.616 128.727 131.072 133.654 135.718 137.832 139.996 142.213 144.483 146.200 148.168 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 123.092 124.738 126.616 128.727 131.072 133.654 135.718 137.832 139.996 142.213 144.483 146.200 148.168
SI Baseline 16.712 15.908 15.310 14.866 14.537 14.295 14.495 14.698 14.905 15.117 15.332 15.588 15.876 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16.712 15.908 15.310 14.866 14.537 14.295 14.495 14.698 14.905 15.117 15.332 15.588 15.876 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16.712 15.908 15.310 14.866 14.537 14.295 14.495 14.698 14.905 15.117 15.332 15.588 15.876 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16.712 15.908 15.310 14.866 14.537 14.295 14.495 14.698 14.905 15.117 15.332 15.588 15.876
UK Baseline 818.695 826.668 835.704845.825 857.055 869.422 886.939 904.864 923.208 941.982 961.197 976.483 992.330 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 818.695 826.668 835.704 845.825 857.055 869.422 886.939 904.864 923.208 941.982 961.197 976.483 992.330 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 818.695 826.668 835.704 845.825 857.055 869.422 886.939 904.864 923.208 941.982 961.197 976.483 992.330 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 818.695 826.668 835.704 845.825 857.055 869.422 886.939 904.864 923.208 941.982 961.197 976.483 992.330
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 7.143.056 7.248.390 7.358.982 7.455.236 7.553.434 7.653.623 7.755.846 7.860.153 7.966.591 8.075.210 8.186.063 8.299.202 8.414.682 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.143.054 7.248.388 7.358.980 7.458.670 7.562.198 7.667.333 7.774.249 7.882.877 7.993.441 8.105.918 8.220.341 8.336.792 8.455.380 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.143.054 7.248.388 7.358.980 7.456.341 7.554.727 7.651.692 7.750.227 7.850.222 7.952.180 8.056.002 8.161.851 8.269.919 8.380.410 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.143.054 7.248.388 7.358.980 7.456.806 7.556.836 7.657.615 7.760.301 7.864.853 7.971.475 8.080.172 8.190.991 8.304.020 8.419.350
EU15 Baseline 6.277.464 6.369.231 6.465.160 6.549.175 6.634.879 6.722.312 6.811.511 6.902.520 6.995.380 7.090.135 7.186.829 7.285.509 7.386.221 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.277.462 6.369.230 6.465.159 6.552.154 6.642.376 6.733.899 6.826.959 6.921.505 7.017.752 7.115.676 7.215.306 7.316.714 7.419.988 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.277.462 6.369.230 6.465.159 6.550.017 6.635.529 6.719.581 6.804.992 6.891.669 6.980.076 7.070.126 7.161.972 7.255.783 7.351.738 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.277.462 6.369.230 6.465.159 6.550.475 6.637.562 6.725.201 6.814.498 6.905.420 6.998.162 7.092.724 7.189.152 7.287.524 7.387.918
EU10 Baseline 865.593 879.159 893.822 906.061 918.555 931.311 944.335 957.632 971.211 985.076 999.234 1.013.693 1.028.460 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 865.591 879.158 893.821 906.516 919.822 933.434 947.290 961.371 975.688 990.243 1.005.035 1.020.079 1.035.391 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 865.591 879.158 893.821 906.324 919.198 932.111 945.236 958.553 972.104 985.875 999.879 1.014.136 1.028.672 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 865.591 879.158 893.821 906.331 919.274 932.414 945.803 959.433 973.313 987.448 1.001.839 1.016.497 1.031.432
AT Baseline 116.573 118.802 121.126 122.712 124.330 125.981 127.664 129.381 131.134 132.922 134.747 136.609 138.510 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 116.573 118.802 121.126 122.784 124.526 126.282 128.066 129.880 131.724 133.603 135.515 137.459 139.437 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 116.573 118.802 121.126 122.748 124.416 126.060 127.731 129.429 131.158 132.915 134.702 136.517 138.364 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 116.573 118.802 121.126 122.760 124.462 126.173 127.914 129.686 131.491 133.329 135.199 137.101 139.036
BE Baseline 163.417 165.856 168.407 170.086 171.797 173.540 175.317 177.128 178.974 180.855 182.773 184.728 186.721 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 163.416 165.855 168.406 170.170 172.088 174.029 175.997 177.986 179.987 182.001 184.028 186.074 188.143 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 163.416 165.855 168.406 170.112 171.912 173.675 175.463 177.273 179.102 180.948 182.814 184.707 186.631 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 163.416 165.855 168.406 170.124 171.962 173.805 175.677 177.577 179.500 181.446 183.416 185.412 187.435
CZ Baseline 122.286 126.524 131.087 133.887 136.766 139.726 142.770 145.901 149.120 152.430 155.834 159.335 162.936 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 122.286 126.524 131.087 133.906 136.806 139.773 142.820 145.949 149.172 152.485 155.891 159.390 162.986 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 122.286 126.524 131.087 133.851 136.652 139.460 142.343 145.304 148.357 151.489 154.699 157.977 161.318 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 122.286 126.524 131.087 133.865 136.700 139.586 142.552 145.600 148.739 151.966 155.280 158.679 162.164
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 1.270.797 1.292.915 1.315.543 1.334.410 1.353.610 1.373.150 1.393.036 1.413.277 1.433.881 1.454.854 1.476.206 1.497.944 1.520.077 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.270.797 1.292.915 1.315.543 1.335.295 1.355.653 1.376.131 1.396.885 1.417.914 1.439.255 1.460.908 1.482.866 1.505.145 1.527.766 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.270.797 1.292.915 1.315.543 1.334.728 1.353.870 1.372.456 1.391.295 1.410.376 1.429.781 1.449.501 1.469.551 1.489.967 1.510.790 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.270.797 1.292.915 1.315.543 1.334.896 1.354.540 1.374.170 1.394.116 1.414.375 1.434.974 1.455.919 1.477.205 1.498.848 1.520.864
DK Baseline 95.628 96.656 97.966 98.702 99.453 100.218 100.999 101.795 102.607 103.436 104.281 105.144 106.024 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 95.628 96.656 97.966 98.785 99.638 100.514 101.394 102.276 103.165 104.066 104.980 105.910 106.854 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 95.628 96.656 97.966 98.777 99.613 100.459 101.308 102.158 103.017 103.886 104.767 105.662 106.573 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 95.628 96.656 97.966 98.768 99.589 100.425 101.268 102.118 102.977 103.849 104.733 105.631 106.544
ES Baseline 624.508 638.485 653.209665.290 677.685 690.402 703.448 716.832 730.562 744.647 759.097 773.921 789.128 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 624.508 638.485 653.209 665.426 678.065 691.017 704.290 717.884 731.835 746.143 760.820 775.877 791.327 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 624.508 638.485 653.209 665.289 677.608 690.041 702.769 715.791 729.165 742.877 756.947 771.391 786.221 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 624.508 638.485 653.209 665.310 677.720 690.380 703.365 716.677 730.351 744.384 758.791 773.583 788.770
FI Baseline 92.532 93.503 94.649 96.059 97.498 98.968 100.470 102.004 103.570 105.171 106.805 108.475 110.181 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 92.532 93.503 94.649 96.140 97.704 99.310 100.949 102.619 104.320 106.050 107.804 109.580 111.381 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 92.532 93.503 94.649 96.126 97.651 99.192 100.762 102.358 103.981 105.627 107.294 108.984 110.700 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 92.532 93.503 94.649 96.125 97.655 99.214 100.806 102.430 104.084 105.767 107.476 109.211 110.973
FR Baseline 1.078.202 1.090.814 1.103.843 1.116.507 1.129.384 1.142.480 1.155.800 1.169.348 1.183.128 1.197.147 1.211.409 1.225.920 1.240.685 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.078.202 1.090.814 1.103.843 1.116.806 1.130.250 1.143.747 1.157.440 1.171.324 1.185.431 1.199.761 1.214.321 1.229.120 1.244.172 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.078.202 1.090.814 1.103.843 1.116.375 1.128.868 1.140.887 1.153.084 1.165.449 1.178.056 1.190.904 1.204.021 1.217.440 1.231.194 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.078.202 1.090.814 1.103.843 1.116.511 1.129.407 1.142.251 1.155.315 1.168.598 1.182.137 1.195.931 1.209.990 1.224.327 1.238.956
GR Baseline 178.867 179.996 181.367184.102 186.903 189.772 192.711 195.721 198.804 201.963 205.198 208.513 211.909 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 178.867 179.996 181.367 184.158 187.072 190.072 193.141 196.278 199.488 202.771 206.130 209.564 213.076 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 178.867 179.996 181.367 184.149 187.028 189.965 192.964 196.024 199.155 202.356 205.628 208.973 212.393 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 178.867 179.996 181.367 184.145 187.020 189.965 192.979 196.060 199.213 202.439 205.739 209.114 212.567
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 98.324 100.422 102.811104.130 105.502 106.929 108.412 109.953 111.554 113.217 114.943 116.734 118.592 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 98.324 100.422 102.811 104.150 105.547 106.998 108.507 110.079 111.721 113.435 115.222 117.085 119.036 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 98.324 100.422 102.811 104.120 105.461 106.817 108.222 109.674 111.182 112.737 114.341 115.991 117.712 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 98.324 100.422 102.811 104.126 105.485 106.884 108.338 109.848 111.419 113.053 114.751 116.517 118.364
IE Baseline 61.224 62.556 63.936 65.576 67.267 69.012 70.811 72.667 74.581 76.556 78.594 80.697 82.866 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 61.224 62.556 63.936 65.643 67.424 69.258 71.143 73.080 75.071 77.118 79.221 81.382 83.603 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 61.224 62.556 63.936 65.626 67.364 69.123 70.929 72.781 74.687 76.646 78.660 80.732 82.866 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 61.224 62.556 63.936 65.628 67.377 69.167 71.010 72.904 74.852 76.856 78.917 81.036 83.216
IT Baseline 1.076.412 1.084.969 1.093.801 1.099.845 1.105.974 1.112.189 1.118.491 1.124.882 1.131.364 1.137.938 1.144.606 1.151.368 1.158.228 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.076.412 1.084.969 1.093.801 1.100.130 1.106.728 1.113.398 1.120.120 1.126.884 1.133.731 1.140.643 1.147.633 1.154.705 1.161.868 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.076.412 1.084.969 1.093.801 1.099.844 1.105.848 1.111.569 1.117.331 1.123.105 1.128.969 1.134.890 1.140.895 1.146.996 1.153.211 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.076.412 1.084.969 1.093.801 1.099.886 1.106.052 1.112.175 1.118.375 1.124.637 1.131.000 1.137.450 1.143.998 1.150.648 1.157.408
LU Baseline 8.089 8.197 8.310 8.396 8.483 8.572 8.663 8.755 8.850 8.946 9.044 9.143 9.245 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.089 8.197 8.310 8.404 8.504 8.601 8.699 8.798 8.896 8.995 9.095 9.195 9.297 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.089 8.197 8.310 8.399 8.487 8.568 8.650 8.734 8.820 8.909 9.001 9.095 9.193 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.089 8.197 8.310 8.401 8.496 8.588 8.682 8.777 8.872 8.969 9.067 9.166 9.266
NL Baseline 217.096 222.119 227.367230.715 234.134 237.625 241.189 244.827 248.543 252.337 256.211 260.167 264.207 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 217.096 222.119 227.366 230.826 234.423 238.112 241.871 245.698 249.601 253.575 257.620 261.739 265.932 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 217.096 222.119 227.366 230.770 234.245 237.728 241.266 244.854 248.507 252.222 256.003 259.858 263.794 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 217.096 222.119 227.366 230.770 234.260 237.806 241.421 245.103 248.858 252.687 256.590 260.570 264.631
PL Baseline 322.177 332.384 343.355350.840 358.584 366.594 374.879 383.447 392.309 401.472 410.947 420.743 430.872 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 322.177 332.384 343.355 350.861 358.607 366.550 374.754 383.226 391.988 401.025 410.329 419.904 429.787 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 322.177 332.384 343.355 350.708 358.157 365.634 373.360 381.315 389.513 397.910 406.475 415.205 424.149 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 322.177 332.384 343.355 350.760 358.341 366.085 374.088 382.347 390.875 399.653 408.671 417.934 427.472
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 134.957 135.641 136.410138.147 139.928 141.754 143.626 145.545 147.512 149.529 151.597 153.718 155.892 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 134.957 135.641 136.410 138.178 140.029 141.940 143.891 145.877 147.905 149.972 152.083 154.241 156.451 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 134.957 135.641 136.410 138.153 139.931 141.713 143.522 145.354 147.229 149.145 151.111 153.133 155.215 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 134.957 135.641 136.410 138.150 139.932 141.747 143.599 145.488 147.423 149.404 151.436 153.522 155.666
SE Baseline 150.406 152.938 155.794158.067 160.381 162.738 165.138 167.582 170.072 172.608 175.191 177.821 180.501 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 150.406 152.938 155.794 158.190 160.671 163.203 165.768 168.362 170.989 173.652 176.350 179.089 181.870 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 150.406 152.938 155.794 158.155 160.557 162.964 165.399 167.862 170.361 172.891 175.455 178.054 180.694 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 150.406 152.938 155.794 158.153 160.562 163.003 165.482 167.996 170.547 173.136 175.763 178.431 181.141
SI Baseline 16.198 16.554 16.946 17.383 17.835 18.301 18.781 19.277 19.789 20.317 20.862 21.424 22.004 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16.198 16.554 16.946 17.388 17.846 18.314 18.796 19.295 19.811 20.345 20.897 21.467 22.058 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16.198 16.554 16.946 17.380 17.818 18.254 18.705 19.171 19.655 20.157 20.676 21.215 21.774 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16.198 16.554 16.946 17.383 17.830 18.285 18.756 19.242 19.746 20.268 20.808 21.367 21.947
UK Baseline 1.008.756 1.025.783 1.043.431 1.060.560 1.078.051 1.095.911 1.114.150 1.132.775 1.151.798 1.171.227 1.191.071 1.211.341 1.232.048 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.008.756 1.025.783 1.043.431 1.061.219 1.079.599 1.098.284 1.117.304 1.136.645 1.156.353 1.176.417 1.196.840 1.217.635 1.238.812 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.008.756 1.025.783 1.043.431 1.060.766 1.078.132 1.095.182 1.112.517 1.130.118 1.148.087 1.166.409 1.185.124 1.204.274 1.223.899 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.008.756 1.025.783 1.043.431 1.060.848 1.078.528 1.096.331 1.114.489 1.132.994 1.151.883 1.171.159 1.190.833 1.210.923 1.231.446
vkm total 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 3.212.028 3.255.529 3.310.831 3.380.414 3.461.057 3.548.764 3.602.472 3.656.625 3.710.057 3.766.990 3.824.615 3.859.476 3.896.872 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.212.028 3.255.530 3.310.832 3.380.415 3.461.058 3.548.765 3.602.473 3.656.627 3.710.058 3.766.991 3.824.617 3.859.477 3.896.873 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.212.028 3.255.530 3.310.832 3.380.415 3.461.058 3.548.765 3.602.473 3.656.627 3.710.058 3.766.991 3.824.617 3.859.477 3.896.873 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.212.028 3.255.530 3.310.832 3.380.415 3.461.058 3.548.765 3.602.473 3.656.627 3.710.058 3.766.991 3.824.617 3.859.477 3.896.873
EU15 Baseline 2.842.792 2.878.973 2.925.938 2.984.774 3.054.151 3.132.514 3.178.907 3.225.947 3.273.127 3.322.358 3.372.387 3.403.572 3.436.804 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.842.792 2.878.973 2.925.938 2.984.775 3.054.151 3.132.515 3.178.907 3.225.947 3.273.128 3.322.358 3.372.388 3.403.573 3.436.804 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.842.792 2.878.973 2.925.938 2.984.775 3.054.151 3.132.515 3.178.907 3.225.947 3.273.128 3.322.358 3.372.388 3.403.573 3.436.804 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.842.792 2.878.973 2.925.938 2.984.775 3.054.151 3.132.515 3.178.907 3.225.947 3.273.128 3.322.358 3.372.388 3.403.573 3.436.804
EU10 Baseline 369.236 376.556 384.893 395.639 406.906 416.250 423.566 430.679 436.929 444.632 452.228 455.903 460.068 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 369.236 376.557 384.894 395.640 406.907 416.250 423.566 430.679 436.930 444.633 452.229 455.904 460.069 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 369.236 376.557 384.894 395.640 406.907 416.250 423.566 430.679 436.930 444.633 452.229 455.904 460.069 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 369.236 376.557 384.894 395.640 406.907 416.250 423.566 430.679 436.930 444.633 452.229 455.904 460.069
AT Baseline 49.511 49.234 49.182 49.341 49.707 50.266 50.908 51.557 52.216 52.883 53.560 54.295 55.062 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 49.511 49.234 49.182 49.341 49.707 50.266 50.908 51.557 52.216 52.883 53.560 54.295 55.062 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 49.511 49.234 49.182 49.341 49.707 50.266 50.908 51.557 52.216 52.883 53.560 54.295 55.062 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 49.511 49.234 49.182 49.341 49.707 50.266 50.908 51.557 52.216 52.883 53.560 54.295 55.062
BE Baseline 80.608 81.834 83.456 86.569 89.618 90.559 92.001 93.221 93.622 95.108 96.397 97.581 98.799 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 80.608 81.835 83.457 86.570 89.618 90.559 92.001 93.222 93.622 95.108 96.397 97.581 98.799 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 80.608 81.835 83.457 86.570 89.618 90.559 92.001 93.222 93.622 95.108 96.397 97.581 98.799 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 80.608 81.835 83.457 86.570 89.618 90.559 92.001 93.222 93.622 95.108 96.397 97.581 98.799
CZ Baseline 39.994 41.176 42.398 43.662 44.969 46.320 47.746 49.222 50.749 52.332 53.973 55.662 57.474 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 39.994 41.176 42.398 43.662 44.969 46.320 47.746 49.222 50.749 52.332 53.973 55.662 57.474 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 39.994 41.176 42.398 43.662 44.969 46.320 47.746 49.222 50.749 52.332 53.973 55.662 57.474 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 39.994 41.176 42.398 43.662 44.969 46.320 47.746 49.222 50.749 52.332 53.973 55.662 57.474
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 642.904 648.246 653.826659.645 665.712 672.037 679.342 686.743 694.227 701.794 709.444 720.273 731.403 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 642.904 648.246 653.826 659.645 665.712 672.037 679.342 686.743 694.227 701.794 709.444 720.273 731.403 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 642.904 648.246 653.826 659.645 665.712 672.037 679.342 686.743 694.227 701.794 709.444 720.273 731.403 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 642.904 648.246 653.826 659.645 665.712 672.037 679.342 686.743 694.227 701.794 709.444 720.273 731.403
DK Baseline 43.096 43.380 43.879 44.599 45.552 46.750 47.061 47.369 47.680 47.993 48.309 48.221 48.267 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 43.096 43.380 43.879 44.599 45.552 46.750 47.061 47.369 47.680 47.993 48.309 48.221 48.267 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 43.096 43.380 43.879 44.599 45.552 46.750 47.061 47.369 47.680 47.993 48.309 48.221 48.267 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 43.096 43.380 43.879 44.599 45.552 46.750 47.061 47.369 47.680 47.993 48.309 48.221 48.267
ES Baseline 235.019 241.642 249.956260.104 272.246 286.567 295.917 305.585 315.583 325.920 336.612 340.450 344.621 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 235.019 241.642 249.956 260.104 272.246 286.567 295.917 305.585 315.583 325.920 336.612 340.450 344.621 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 235.019 241.642 249.956 260.104 272.246 286.567 295.917 305.585 315.583 325.920 336.612 340.450 344.621 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 235.019 241.642 249.956 260.104 272.246 286.567 295.917 305.585 315.583 325.920 336.612 340.450 344.621
FI Baseline 60.773 53.659 49.831 48.814 50.331 54.271 54.955 55.648 56.350 57.061 57.781 57.787 57.903 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 60.773 53.659 49.831 48.814 50.331 54.271 54.955 55.648 56.350 57.061 57.781 57.787 57.903 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 60.773 53.659 49.831 48.814 50.331 54.271 54.955 55.648 56.350 57.061 57.781 57.787 57.903 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 60.773 53.659 49.831 48.814 50.331 54.271 54.955 55.648 56.350 57.061 57.781 57.787 57.903
FR Baseline 487.527 496.053 505.564516.094 527.672 540.331 549.423 558.671 568.079 577.645 587.380 590.480 593.826 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 487.527 496.053 505.564 516.094 527.672 540.331 549.423 558.671 568.079 577.645 587.380 590.480 593.826 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 487.527 496.053 505.564 516.094 527.672 540.331 549.423 558.671 568.079 577.645 587.380 590.480 593.826 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 487.527 496.053 505.564 516.094 527.672 540.331 549.423 558.671 568.079 577.645 587.380 590.480 593.826
GR Baseline 51.429 54.643 58.086 61.775 65.731 69.974 72.051 74.192 76.399 78.674 81.018 80.680 80.471 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 51.429 54.643 58.086 61.775 65.731 69.974 72.051 74.192 76.399 78.674 81.018 80.680 80.471 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 51.429 54.643 58.086 61.775 65.731 69.974 72.051 74.192 76.399 78.674 81.018 80.680 80.471 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 51.429 54.643 58.086 61.775 65.731 69.974 72.051 74.192 76.399 78.674 81.018 80.680 80.471
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 29.039 29.392 29.759 30.141 30.540 30.955 31.561 32.180 32.813 33.460 34.120 34.730 35.436 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 29.039 29.392 29.759 30.141 30.540 30.955 31.561 32.180 32.813 33.460 34.120 34.730 35.436 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 29.039 29.392 29.759 30.141 30.540 30.955 31.561 32.180 32.813 33.460 34.120 34.730 35.436 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 29.039 29.392 29.759 30.141 30.540 30.955 31.561 32.180 32.813 33.460 34.120 34.730 35.436
IE Baseline 16.715 17.779 18.976 20.327 21.856 23.592 24.421 25.282 26.176 27.104 28.067 28.445 28.878 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16.715 17.779 18.976 20.327 21.856 23.592 24.421 25.282 26.176 27.104 28.067 28.445 28.878 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16.715 17.779 18.976 20.327 21.856 23.592 24.421 25.282 26.176 27.104 28.067 28.445 28.878 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16.715 17.779 18.976 20.327 21.856 23.592 24.421 25.282 26.176 27.104 28.067 28.445 28.878
IT Baseline 487.078 496.444 508.194522.536 539.719 560.025 562.189 564.372 566.574 568.797 571.041 574.758 578.583 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 487.078 496.444 508.194 522.536 539.719 560.025 562.189 564.372 566.574 568.797 571.041 574.758 578.583 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 487.078 496.444 508.194 522.536 539.719 560.025 562.189 564.372 566.574 568.797 571.041 574.758 578.583 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 487.078 496.444 508.194 522.536 539.719 560.025 562.189 564.372 566.574 568.797 571.041 574.758 578.583
LU Baseline 4.318 4.258 4.246 4.282 4.360 4.479 4.559 4.641 4.726 4.812 4.900 4.943 4.995 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.318 4.258 4.246 4.282 4.360 4.479 4.559 4.641 4.726 4.812 4.900 4.943 4.995 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.318 4.258 4.246 4.282 4.360 4.479 4.559 4.641 4.726 4.812 4.900 4.943 4.995 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.318 4.258 4.246 4.282 4.360 4.479 4.559 4.641 4.726 4.812 4.900 4.943 4.995
NL Baseline 103.073 104.194 105.406106.743 108.193 109.775 111.223 112.646 114.099 115.573 117.067 118.851 120.685 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 103.073 104.194 105.406 106.743 108.193 109.775 111.223 112.646 114.099 115.573 117.067 118.851 120.685 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 103.073 104.194 105.406 106.743 108.193 109.775 111.223 112.646 114.099 115.573 117.067 118.851 120.685 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 103.073 104.194 105.406 106.743 108.193 109.775 111.223 112.646 114.099 115.573 117.067 118.851 120.685
PL Baseline 79.327 83.511 88.073 93.047 98.473 104.396 108.912 113.638 118.589 123.774 129.204 134.402 139.987 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 79.327 83.511 88.073 93.047 98.473 104.396 108.912 113.638 118.589 123.774 129.204 134.402 139.987 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 79.327 83.511 88.073 93.047 98.473 104.396 108.912 113.638 118.589 123.774 129.204 134.402 139.987 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 79.327 83.511 88.073 93.047 98.473 104.396 108.912 113.638 118.589 123.774 129.204 134.402 139.987
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 49.592 52.953 56.554 60.414 64.553 68.992 70.127 71.281 72.457 73.653 74.871 74.595 74.350 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 49.592 52.953 56.554 60.414 64.553 68.992 70.127 71.281 72.457 73.653 74.871 74.595 74.350 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 49.592 52.953 56.554 60.414 64.553 68.992 70.127 71.281 72.457 73.653 74.871 74.595 74.350 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 49.592 52.953 56.554 60.414 64.553 68.992 70.127 71.281 72.457 73.653 74.871 74.595 74.350
SE Baseline 67.664 68.105 68.664 69.337 70.121 71.017 72.049 73.096 74.161 75.244 76.345 76.730 77.302 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 67.664 68.105 68.664 69.337 70.121 71.017 72.049 73.096 74.161 75.244 76.345 76.730 77.302 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 67.664 68.105 68.664 69.337 70.121 71.017 72.049 73.096 74.161 75.244 76.345 76.730 77.302 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 67.664 68.105 68.664 69.337 70.121 71.017 72.049 73.096 74.161 75.244 76.345 76.730 77.302
SI Baseline 6.960 7.006 7.085 7.199 7.352 7.551 7.656 7.762 7.871 7.982 8.096 8.238 8.395 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.960 7.006 7.085 7.199 7.352 7.551 7.656 7.762 7.871 7.982 8.096 8.238 8.395 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.960 7.006 7.085 7.199 7.352 7.551 7.656 7.762 7.871 7.982 8.096 8.238 8.395 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.960 7.006 7.085 7.199 7.352 7.551 7.656 7.762 7.871 7.982 8.096 8.238 8.395
UK Baseline 463.485 466.550 470.118474.194 478.780 483.881 492.681 501.641 510.780 520.097 529.595 535.485 541.660 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 463.485 466.550 470.118 474.194 478.780 483.881 492.681 501.641 510.780 520.097 529.595 535.485 541.660 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 463.485 466.550 470.118 474.194 478.780 483.881 492.681 501.641 510.780 520.097 529.595 535.485 541.660 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 463.485 466.550 470.118 474.194 478.780 483.881 492.681 501.641 510.780 520.097 529.595 535.485 541.660
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 3.936.884 3.979.624 4.025.244 4.076.025 4.127.753 4.180.440 4.234.105 4.288.766 4.344.448 4.401.165 4.458.936 4.517.783 4.577.725 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.936.885 3.979.625 4.025.245 4.078.365 4.133.733 4.189.814 4.246.683 4.304.280 4.362.743 4.422.038 4.482.173 4.543.191 4.605.151 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.936.885 3.979.625 4.025.245 4.076.823 4.128.803 4.179.525 4.230.913 4.282.885 4.335.754 4.389.439 4.444.032 4.499.645 4.556.399 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.936.885 3.979.625 4.025.245 4.077.116 4.130.151 4.183.337 4.237.408 4.292.324 4.348.205 4.405.038 4.462.838 4.521.650 4.581.517
EU15 Baseline 3.472.144 3.509.674 3.549.512 3.593.987 3.639.296 3.685.451 3.732.469 3.780.366 3.829.161 3.878.870 3.929.509 3.981.096 4.033.652 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.472.144 3.509.675 3.549.513 3.596.003 3.644.376 3.693.322 3.742.960 3.793.247 3.844.315 3.896.133 3.948.711 4.002.082 4.056.297 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.472.144 3.509.675 3.549.513 3.594.601 3.639.897 3.683.980 3.728.656 3.773.855 3.819.866 3.866.619 3.914.201 3.962.709 4.012.249 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.472.144 3.509.675 3.549.513 3.594.890 3.641.192 3.687.580 3.734.752 3.782.677 3.831.469 3.881.116 3.931.635 3.983.063 4.035.440
EU10 Baseline 464.740 469.950 475.732 482.038 488.456 494.988 501.636 508.401 515.287 522.295 529.427 536.686 544.074 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 464.741 469.950 475.733 482.362 489.356 496.492 503.723 511.033 518.428 525.905 533.462 541.109 548.854 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 464.741 469.950 475.733 482.222 488.906 495.544 502.257 509.030 515.888 522.820 529.831 536.936 544.150 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 464.741 469.950 475.733 482.226 488.959 495.757 502.656 509.647 516.736 523.922 531.204 538.587 546.077
AT Baseline 55.862 56.696 57.565 58.321 59.091 59.874 60.673 61.486 62.314 63.157 64.016 64.890 65.780 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 55.862 56.696 57.565 58.368 59.223 60.078 60.945 61.823 62.712 63.615 64.531 65.459 66.398 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 55.862 56.696 57.565 58.343 59.149 59.928 60.719 61.521 62.333 63.156 63.990 64.834 65.689 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 55.862 56.696 57.565 58.352 59.180 60.004 60.842 61.693 62.556 63.432 64.321 65.222 66.134
BE Baseline 100.053 101.343 102.672 103.752 104.847 105.957 107.081 108.219 109.373 110.542 111.727 112.927 114.143 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 100.053 101.344 102.672 103.820 105.079 106.346 107.621 108.899 110.175 111.446 112.714 113.983 115.257 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 100.053 101.344 102.672 103.774 104.941 106.067 107.202 108.342 109.483 110.626 111.770 112.922 114.085 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 100.053 101.344 102.672 103.783 104.978 106.165 107.363 108.570 109.783 111.001 112.225 113.455 114.693
CZ Baseline 59.416 61.499 63.734 65.239 66.790 68.387 70.032 71.726 73.471 75.269 77.121 79.031 80.999 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 59.416 61.499 63.734 65.248 66.809 68.409 70.055 71.748 73.494 75.293 77.146 79.054 81.019 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 59.416 61.499 63.734 65.221 66.734 68.257 69.824 71.437 73.103 74.817 76.579 78.384 80.233 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 59.416 61.499 63.734 65.228 66.758 68.319 69.926 71.580 73.288 75.046 76.856 78.718 80.634
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 742.840 754.590 766.662777.389 788.303 799.408 810.706 822.202 833.901 845.805 857.918 870.244 882.789 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 742.840 754.590 766.662 778.055 789.849 801.679 813.644 825.743 838.003 850.422 862.992 875.724 888.632 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 742.840 754.590 766.662 777.637 788.536 798.976 809.537 820.210 831.055 842.062 853.242 864.618 876.219 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 742.840 754.590 766.662 777.754 789.012 800.204 811.564 823.088 834.796 846.688 858.761 871.023 883.485
DK Baseline 48.467 48.850 49.461 49.704 49.951 50.201 50.454 50.710 50.970 51.234 51.503 51.775 52.052 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 48.467 48.850 49.461 49.758 50.073 50.397 50.715 51.028 51.338 51.649 51.961 52.276 52.593 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 48.467 48.850 49.461 49.753 50.056 50.361 50.658 50.950 51.240 51.530 51.821 52.114 52.410 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 48.467 48.850 49.461 49.747 50.041 50.338 50.632 50.923 51.213 51.505 51.798 52.093 52.390
ES Baseline 349.135 354.007 359.258366.131 373.163 380.350 387.701 395.217 402.903 410.764 418.803 427.024 435.433 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 349.135 354.007 359.258 366.228 373.433 380.790 388.304 395.970 403.813 411.829 420.026 428.409 436.985 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 349.135 354.007 359.258 366.133 373.117 380.117 387.257 394.533 401.983 409.596 417.383 425.353 433.514 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 349.135 354.007 359.258 366.146 373.191 380.345 387.658 395.129 402.781 410.610 418.623 426.826 435.224
FI Baseline 58.138 58.500 59.001 59.796 60.606 61.432 62.274 63.133 64.009 64.902 65.812 66.740 67.686 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 58.138 58.500 59.001 59.858 60.762 61.691 62.638 63.600 64.577 65.567 66.566 67.574 68.589 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 58.138 58.500 59.001 59.847 60.722 61.603 62.497 63.404 64.322 65.249 66.184 67.126 68.079 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 58.138 58.500 59.001 59.846 60.725 61.619 62.529 63.456 64.398 65.353 66.319 67.295 68.282
FR Baseline 597.418 601.250 605.321612.105 618.993 625.992 633.101 640.323 647.661 655.117 662.692 670.389 678.210 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 597.418 601.250 605.321 612.285 619.520 626.768 634.110 641.542 649.082 656.729 664.486 672.357 680.350 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 597.418 601.250 605.321 612.032 618.707 625.090 631.557 638.101 644.766 651.550 658.467 665.537 672.777 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 597.418 601.250 605.321 612.110 619.019 625.881 632.852 639.931 647.137 654.471 661.936 669.539 677.286
GR Baseline 80.394 80.454 80.655 81.737 82.842 83.971 85.125 86.303 87.507 88.736 89.991 91.273 92.582 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 80.394 80.454 80.655 81.766 82.930 84.127 85.348 86.590 87.857 89.149 90.464 91.804 93.169 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 80.394 80.454 80.655 81.761 82.907 84.072 85.257 86.460 87.688 88.937 90.210 91.506 92.826 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 80.394 80.454 80.655 81.760 82.903 84.072 85.264 86.478 87.716 88.979 90.266 91.577 92.913
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 36.238 37.137 38.138 38.809 39.498 40.206 40.935 41.684 42.452 43.243 44.056 44.892 45.751 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 36.238 37.137 38.138 38.820 39.521 40.241 40.983 41.747 42.536 43.351 44.194 45.064 45.967 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 36.238 37.137 38.138 38.804 39.478 40.152 40.843 41.550 42.274 43.015 43.772 44.545 45.342 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 36.238 37.137 38.138 38.807 39.490 40.185 40.900 41.635 42.390 43.167 43.969 44.795 45.650
IE Baseline 29.363 29.897 30.480 31.251 32.044 32.860 33.699 34.562 35.451 36.365 37.306 38.274 39.270 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 29.363 29.897 30.480 31.291 32.137 33.006 33.896 34.807 35.739 36.695 37.672 38.673 39.698 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 29.363 29.897 30.480 31.281 32.101 32.926 33.770 34.631 35.514 36.419 37.346 38.296 39.272 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 29.363 29.897 30.480 31.282 32.109 32.952 33.817 34.702 35.610 36.541 37.494 38.471 39.473
IT Baseline 582.520 586.567 590.719593.899 597.137 600.433 603.785 607.195 610.662 614.185 617.765 621.402 625.096 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 582.520 586.567 590.719 594.082 597.622 601.210 604.833 608.482 612.181 615.920 619.705 623.536 627.421 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 582.520 586.567 590.719 593.901 597.067 600.059 603.080 606.110 609.196 612.317 615.490 618.720 622.019 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 582.520 586.567 590.719 593.927 597.194 600.437 603.731 607.066 610.464 613.915 617.425 620.996 624.632
LU Baseline 5.054 5.121 5.195 5.242 5.290 5.339 5.389 5.438 5.489 5.540 5.592 5.645 5.698 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.054 5.121 5.195 5.249 5.307 5.362 5.417 5.471 5.525 5.579 5.632 5.685 5.738 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.054 5.121 5.195 5.244 5.294 5.336 5.379 5.422 5.467 5.513 5.560 5.608 5.659 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.054 5.121 5.195 5.246 5.301 5.352 5.404 5.455 5.507 5.559 5.611 5.663 5.715
NL Baseline 122.567 124.504 126.497128.338 130.210 132.114 134.050 136.019 138.023 140.060 142.133 144.241 146.385 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 122.567 124.504 126.497 128.420 130.424 132.475 134.556 136.664 138.805 140.975 143.173 145.399 147.654 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 122.567 124.504 126.497 128.380 130.295 132.197 134.118 136.053 138.014 139.998 142.006 144.043 146.114 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 122.567 124.504 126.497 128.378 130.304 132.250 134.224 136.226 138.260 140.324 142.418 144.544 146.703
PL Baseline 145.996 152.464 159.432163.720 168.138 172.691 177.386 182.227 187.217 192.361 197.662 203.126 208.759 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 145.996 152.464 159.432 163.730 168.150 172.670 177.323 182.116 187.057 192.138 197.355 202.711 208.225 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 145.996 152.464 159.432 163.652 167.921 172.204 176.619 181.155 185.819 190.587 195.445 200.393 205.456 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 145.996 152.464 159.432 163.678 168.014 172.433 176.987 181.674 186.500 191.455 196.534 201.740 207.090
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 74.137 73.957 73.810 74.688 75.588 76.508 77.450 78.414 79.401 80.410 81.442 82.498 83.577 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 74.137 73.957 73.810 74.709 75.655 76.632 77.626 78.634 79.660 80.702 81.761 82.840 83.941 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 74.137 73.957 73.810 74.692 75.590 76.483 77.385 78.295 79.223 80.169 81.137 82.131 83.153 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 74.137 73.957 73.810 74.691 75.591 76.505 77.434 78.380 79.346 80.332 81.342 82.376 83.436
SE Baseline 78.073 79.057 80.276 81.445 82.635 83.849 85.086 86.347 87.633 88.944 90.280 91.642 93.031 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 78.073 79.057 80.276 81.530 82.838 84.175 85.528 86.893 88.274 89.672 91.088 92.523 93.981 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 78.073 79.057 80.276 81.507 82.760 84.010 85.274 86.550 87.843 89.151 90.475 91.816 93.178 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 78.073 79.057 80.276 81.504 82.762 84.035 85.327 86.636 87.964 89.312 90.678 92.065 93.474
SI Baseline 8.568 8.756 8.959 9.193 9.433 9.681 9.936 10.200 10.471 10.749 11.038 11.335 11.642 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.568 8.756 8.959 9.195 9.439 9.688 9.945 10.209 10.483 10.764 11.057 11.358 11.671 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.568 8.756 8.959 9.191 9.425 9.658 9.899 10.147 10.405 10.670 10.946 11.232 11.528 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.568 8.756 8.959 9.192 9.431 9.673 9.924 10.183 10.451 10.726 11.012 11.308 11.615
UK Baseline 548.124 554.881 561.939570.190 578.596 587.164 595.896 604.795 613.864 623.109 632.530 642.133 651.921 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 548.124 554.881 561.939 570.585 579.524 588.584 597.780 607.101 616.572 626.184 635.939 645.840 655.893 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 548.124 554.881 561.939 570.316 578.655 586.755 594.965 603.273 611.737 620.346 629.120 638.084 647.256 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 548.124 554.881 561.939 570.362 578.884 587.423 596.112 604.943 613.938 623.096 632.420 641.919 651.600
stock PCGS 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 87.193.779 85.136.754 83.066.674 81.190.633 79.362.253 77.472.744 78.363.391 78.727.586 78.861.684 78.959.487 79.096.766 78.971.419 78.891.309 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 87.193.779 85.136.754 83.066.674 81.190.633 79.362.253 77.472.744 78.363.391 78.727.586 78.861.684 78.959.487 79.096.768 78.971.420 78.891.309 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 87.193.779 85.136.754 83.066.674 81.190.633 79.362.253 77.472.744 78.363.391 78.727.586 78.861.684 78.959.487 79.096.768 78.971.420 78.891.309 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 87.193.779 85.136.754 83.066.674 81.190.633 79.362.253 77.472.744 78.363.391 78.727.586 78.861.684 78.959.487 79.096.768 78.971.420 78.891.309
EU15 Baseline 77.249.584 75.277.258 73.328.513 71.496.360 69.727.714 67.976.882 68.798.013 69.113.192 69.219.720 69.292.160 69.368.879 69.265.436 69.197.450 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 77.249.584 75.277.258 73.328.513 71.496.360 69.727.714 67.976.882 68.798.013 69.113.192 69.219.720 69.292.160 69.368.880 69.265.436 69.197.450 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 77.249.584 75.277.258 73.328.513 71.496.360 69.727.714 67.976.882 68.798.013 69.113.192 69.219.720 69.292.160 69.368.880 69.265.436 69.197.450 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 77.249.584 75.277.258 73.328.513 71.496.360 69.727.714 67.976.882 68.798.013 69.113.192 69.219.720 69.292.160 69.368.880 69.265.436 69.197.450
EU10 Baseline 9.944.195 9.859.497 9.738.162 9.694.274 9.634.539 9.495.863 9.565.378 9.614.393 9.641.964 9.667.328 9.727.887 9.705.983 9.693.859 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.944.195 9.859.497 9.738.162 9.694.274 9.634.539 9.495.863 9.565.378 9.614.393 9.641.964 9.667.328 9.727.888 9.705.983 9.693.859 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.944.195 9.859.497 9.738.162 9.694.274 9.634.539 9.495.863 9.565.378 9.614.393 9.641.964 9.667.328 9.727.888 9.705.983 9.693.859 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.944.195 9.859.497 9.738.162 9.694.274 9.634.539 9.495.863 9.565.378 9.614.393 9.641.964 9.667.328 9.727.888 9.705.983 9.693.859
AT Baseline 1.213.918 1.129.748 1.048.046 968.764 891.441 815.327 825.346 826.268 812.954 797.655 781.110 765.540 751.030 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.213.918 1.129.748 1.048.046 968.764 891.441 815.327 825.346 826.268 812.954 797.655 781.110 765.540 751.030 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.213.918 1.129.748 1.048.046 968.764 891.441 815.327 825.346 826.268 812.954 797.655 781.110 765.540 751.030 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.213.918 1.129.748 1.048.046 968.764 891.441 815.327 825.346 826.268 812.954 797.655 781.110 765.540 751.030
BE Baseline 1.908.241 1.902.894 1.858.182 1.867.798 1.855.362 1.769.240 1.705.813 1.646.120 1.596.390 1.548.528 1.532.416 1.527.068 1.525.095 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.908.241 1.902.894 1.858.182 1.867.798 1.855.362 1.769.240 1.705.813 1.646.120 1.596.390 1.548.528 1.532.416 1.527.068 1.525.095 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.908.241 1.902.894 1.858.182 1.867.798 1.855.362 1.769.240 1.705.813 1.646.120 1.596.390 1.548.528 1.532.416 1.527.068 1.525.095 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.908.241 1.902.894 1.858.182 1.867.798 1.855.362 1.769.240 1.705.813 1.646.120 1.596.390 1.548.528 1.532.416 1.527.068 1.525.095
CZ Baseline 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.044.245 2.076.285 2.120.099 2.170.070 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.044.245 2.076.285 2.120.099 2.170.070 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.044.245 2.076.285 2.120.099 2.170.070 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.044.245 2.076.285 2.120.099 2.170.070
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 13.063.863 12.980.159 12.897.563 12.816.002 12.735.405 12.655.702 12.795.240 12.830.248 12.817.233 12.796.058 12.766.899 12.796.250 12.829.412 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.063.863 12.980.159 12.897.563 12.816.002 12.735.405 12.655.703 12.795.240 12.830.248 12.817.233 12.796.058 12.766.899 12.796.250 12.829.412 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.063.863 12.980.159 12.897.563 12.816.002 12.735.405 12.655.703 12.795.240 12.830.248 12.817.233 12.796.058 12.766.899 12.796.250 12.829.412 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.063.863 12.980.159 12.897.563 12.816.002 12.735.405 12.655.703 12.795.240 12.830.248 12.817.233 12.796.058 12.766.899 12.796.250 12.829.412
DK Baseline 934.944 885.514 838.697794.355 752.357 712.580 716.785 716.919 704.039 690.323 675.412 656.836 638.453 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 934.944 885.514 838.697 794.355 752.357 712.580 716.785 716.919 704.039 690.323 675.412 656.836 638.453 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 934.944 885.514 838.697 794.355 752.357 712.580 716.785 716.919 704.039 690.323 675.412 656.836 638.453 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 934.944 885.514 838.697 794.355 752.357 712.580 716.785 716.919 704.039 690.323 675.412 656.836 638.453
ES Baseline 7.926.809 7.583.619 7.223.685 6.848.685 6.484.428 6.139.543 6.341.838 6.498.616 6.652.937 6.808.031 6.965.650 7.011.159 7.060.551 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.926.809 7.583.619 7.223.685 6.848.685 6.484.428 6.139.543 6.341.838 6.498.616 6.652.937 6.808.031 6.965.650 7.011.159 7.060.551 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.926.809 7.583.619 7.223.685 6.848.685 6.484.428 6.139.543 6.341.838 6.498.616 6.652.937 6.808.031 6.965.650 7.011.159 7.060.551 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.926.809 7.583.619 7.223.685 6.848.685 6.484.428 6.139.543 6.341.838 6.498.616 6.652.937 6.808.031 6.965.650 7.011.159 7.060.551
FI Baseline 1.207.736 1.147.118 1.083.637 1.018.208 951.857 885.585 897.599 904.886 896.937 888.559 879.671 864.397 849.543 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.207.736 1.147.118 1.083.637 1.018.208 951.857 885.585 897.599 904.886 896.937 888.559 879.671 864.397 849.543 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.207.736 1.147.118 1.083.637 1.018.208 951.857 885.585 897.599 904.886 896.937 888.559 879.671 864.397 849.543 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.207.736 1.147.118 1.083.637 1.018.208 951.857 885.585 897.599 904.886 896.937 888.559 879.671 864.397 849.543
FR Baseline 11.552.518 11.304.393 11.070.720 10.849.620 10.639.179 10.437.449 10.614.508 10.707.849 10.788.985 10.866.078 10.941.120 10.932.179 10.927.213 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.552.518 11.304.393 11.070.720 10.849.620 10.639.179 10.437.449 10.614.508 10.707.849 10.788.985 10.866.078 10.941.120 10.932.179 10.927.213 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.552.518 11.304.393 11.070.720 10.849.620 10.639.179 10.437.449 10.614.508 10.707.849 10.788.985 10.866.078 10.941.120 10.932.179 10.927.213 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.552.518 11.304.393 11.070.720 10.849.620 10.639.179 10.437.449 10.614.508 10.707.849 10.788.985 10.866.078 10.941.120 10.932.179 10.927.213
GR Baseline 1.837.176 1.916.328 1.998.891 2.085.010 2.174.840 2.268.540 2.337.193 2.407.923 2.467.823 2.525.077 2.580.897 2.561.991 2.544.885 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.837.176 1.916.328 1.998.891 2.085.010 2.174.840 2.268.540 2.337.193 2.407.923 2.467.823 2.525.077 2.580.897 2.561.991 2.544.885 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.837.176 1.916.328 1.998.891 2.085.010 2.174.840 2.268.540 2.337.193 2.407.923 2.467.823 2.525.077 2.580.897 2.561.991 2.544.885 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.837.176 1.916.328 1.998.891 2.085.010 2.174.840 2.268.540 2.337.193 2.407.923 2.467.823 2.525.077 2.580.897 2.561.991 2.544.885
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.641.416 1.651.591 1.667.389 1.686.510 1.712.658 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.641.416 1.651.591 1.667.389 1.686.510 1.712.658 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.641.416 1.651.591 1.667.389 1.686.510 1.712.658 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.641.416 1.651.591 1.667.389 1.686.510 1.712.658
IE Baseline 589.116 602.347 615.875629.706 643.849 658.309 680.413 697.509 699.655 701.032 701.499 693.877 686.462 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 589.116 602.347 615.875 629.706 643.849 658.309 680.413 697.509 699.655 701.032 701.499 693.877 686.462 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 589.116 602.347 615.875 629.706 643.849 658.309 680.413 697.509 699.655 701.032 701.499 693.877 686.462 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 589.116 602.347 615.875 629.706 643.849 658.309 680.413 697.509 699.655 701.032 701.499 693.877 686.462
IT Baseline 21.728.539 20.915.903 20.133.660 19.380.670 18.655.844 17.958.125 17.969.087 17.839.935 17.699.059 17.547.765 17.389.349 17.334.480 17.287.026 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 21.728.539 20.915.903 20.133.660 19.380.670 18.655.844 17.958.125 17.969.087 17.839.935 17.699.059 17.547.765 17.389.349 17.334.480 17.287.026 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 21.728.539 20.915.903 20.133.660 19.380.670 18.655.844 17.958.125 17.969.087 17.839.935 17.699.059 17.547.765 17.389.349 17.334.480 17.287.026 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 21.728.539 20.915.903 20.133.660 19.380.670 18.655.844 17.958.125 17.969.087 17.839.935 17.699.059 17.547.765 17.389.349 17.334.480 17.287.026
LU Baseline 78.424 67.288 57.732 49.534 42.500 36.465 37.007 36.881 36.147 35.533 34.981 34.427 33.957 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 78.424 67.288 57.732 49.534 42.500 36.465 37.007 36.881 36.147 35.533 34.981 34.427 33.957 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 78.424 67.288 57.732 49.534 42.500 36.465 37.007 36.881 36.147 35.533 34.981 34.427 33.957 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 78.424 67.288 57.732 49.534 42.500 36.465 37.007 36.881 36.147 35.533 34.981 34.427 33.957
NL Baseline 3.041.538 2.977.156 2.914.136 2.852.451 2.792.072 2.732.970 2.770.808 2.787.518 2.794.706 2.801.376 2.807.388 2.816.375 2.827.035 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.041.538 2.977.156 2.914.136 2.852.451 2.792.072 2.732.970 2.770.808 2.787.518 2.794.706 2.801.376 2.807.388 2.816.375 2.827.035 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.041.538 2.977.156 2.914.136 2.852.451 2.792.072 2.732.970 2.770.808 2.787.518 2.794.706 2.801.376 2.807.388 2.816.375 2.827.035 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.041.538 2.977.156 2.914.136 2.852.451 2.792.072 2.732.970 2.770.808 2.787.518 2.794.706 2.801.376 2.807.388 2.816.375 2.827.035
PL Baseline 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.971.451 6.174.552 6.409.003 6.565.365 6.736.683 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.971.451 6.174.552 6.409.003 6.565.365 6.736.683 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.971.451 6.174.552 6.409.003 6.565.365 6.736.683 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.971.451 6.174.552 6.409.003 6.565.365 6.736.683
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 1.261.940 1.368.193 1.483.392 1.608.291 1.743.706 1.890.523 1.921.629 1.934.623 1.942.371 1.948.384 1.953.437 1.925.611 1.896.673 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.261.940 1.368.193 1.483.392 1.608.291 1.743.706 1.890.523 1.921.629 1.934.623 1.942.371 1.948.384 1.953.437 1.925.611 1.896.673 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.261.940 1.368.193 1.483.392 1.608.291 1.743.706 1.890.523 1.921.629 1.934.623 1.942.371 1.948.384 1.953.437 1.925.611 1.896.673 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.261.940 1.368.193 1.483.392 1.608.291 1.743.706 1.890.523 1.921.629 1.934.623 1.942.371 1.948.384 1.953.437 1.925.611 1.896.673
SE Baseline 1.367.285 1.288.409 1.214.083 1.144.045 1.078.048 1.015.857 1.029.796 1.042.241 1.047.492 1.052.228 1.056.167 1.053.473 1.051.949 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.367.285 1.288.409 1.214.083 1.144.045 1.078.048 1.015.857 1.029.796 1.042.241 1.047.492 1.052.228 1.056.167 1.053.473 1.051.949 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.367.285 1.288.409 1.214.083 1.144.045 1.078.048 1.015.857 1.029.796 1.042.241 1.047.492 1.052.228 1.056.167 1.053.473 1.051.949 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.367.285 1.288.409 1.214.083 1.144.045 1.078.048 1.015.857 1.029.796 1.042.241 1.047.492 1.052.228 1.056.167 1.053.473 1.051.949
SI Baseline 504.210 504.210 504.210504.210 504.210 504.210 510.923 515.230 519.097 522.411 525.175 530.175 535.908 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 510.923 515.230 519.097 522.410 525.175 530.175 535.908 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 510.923 515.230 519.097 522.410 525.175 530.175 535.908 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 510.923 515.230 519.097 522.410 525.175 530.175 535.908
UK Baseline 9.537.537 9.208.189 8.890.214 8.583.219 8.286.826 8.000.666 8.154.951 8.235.654 8.262.993 8.285.534 8.302.885 8.291.772 8.288.166 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.537.537 9.208.189 8.890.214 8.583.219 8.286.826 8.000.666 8.154.951 8.235.654 8.262.993 8.285.534 8.302.885 8.291.772 8.288.166 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.537.537 9.208.189 8.890.214 8.583.219 8.286.826 8.000.666 8.154.951 8.235.654 8.262.993 8.285.534 8.302.885 8.291.772 8.288.166 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.537.537 9.208.189 8.890.214 8.583.219 8.286.826 8.000.666 8.154.951 8.235.654 8.262.993 8.285.534 8.302.885 8.291.772 8.288.166
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 78.859.891 78.881.503 78.952.112 79.082.811 79.214.165 79.343.932 79.469.885 79.585.593 79.667.564 79.702.627 79.675.001 79.569.066 79.374.324 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 78.859.891 78.881.502 79.311.062 79.921.329 80.579.674 81.289.848 82.060.722 82.896.563 83.806.595 84.786.292 85.830.795 86.933.426 88.086.186 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 78.859.891 78.881.502 79.303.445 79.837.121 80.334.308 80.791.179 81.305.085 81.876.139 82.523.791 83.238.627 84.019.317 84.862.056 85.761.806 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 78.859.891 78.881.502 79.303.678 79.854.385 80.409.643 80.985.423 81.623.826 82.328.131 83.106.306 83.954.472 84.869.369 85.845.178 86.875.114
EU15 Baseline 69.169.344 69.185.829 69.243.549 69.340.151 69.442.006 69.547.300 69.653.404 69.753.892 69.827.757 69.863.606 69.848.404 69.768.908 69.615.037 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 69.169.344 69.185.828 69.551.069 70.054.168 70.601.781 71.196.528 71.845.368 72.550.773 73.319.868 74.148.771 75.034.661 75.973.016 76.957.307 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 69.169.344 69.185.828 69.543.815 69.976.144 70.375.254 70.737.524 71.151.179 71.615.146 72.145.865 72.735.344 73.383.940 74.089.546 74.848.072 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 69.169.344 69.185.828 69.544.108 69.992.346 70.445.400 70.917.114 71.445.082 72.031.018 72.680.993 73.391.691 74.161.623 74.986.891 75.861.890
EU10 Baseline 9.690.547 9.695.674 9.708.563 9.742.660 9.772.159 9.796.632 9.816.481 9.831.702 9.839.808 9.839.021 9.826.597 9.800.158 9.759.287 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.690.546 9.695.673 9.759.993 9.867.161 9.977.893 10.093.320 10.215.355 10.345.790 10.486.726 10.637.521 10.796.134 10.960.410 11.128.880 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.690.546 9.695.673 9.759.629 9.860.977 9.959.054 10.053.655 10.153.906 10.260.993 10.377.926 10.503.283 10.635.378 10.772.511 10.913.734 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.690.546 9.695.673 9.759.570 9.862.039 9.964.243 10.068.309 10.178.743 10.297.113 10.425.313 10.562.782 10.707.746 10.858.287 11.013.224
AT Baseline 738.274 727.894 720.112 713.266 708.341 704.911 702.342 699.899 696.792 692.606 687.251 680.910 673.941 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 738.274 727.894 734.090 742.668 752.238 763.462 776.373 791.007 807.386 825.494 845.169 866.216 888.222 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 738.274 727.894 734.055 742.097 750.621 760.281 771.635 784.582 799.096 815.033 832.207 850.463 869.483 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 738.274 727.894 734.045 742.135 750.907 761.106 773.015 786.615 801.849 818.674 836.933 856.454 876.875
BE Baseline 1.525.244 1.526.717 1.529.322 1.526.827 1.524.329 1.521.639 1.518.569 1.514.873 1.510.031 1.503.789 1.495.908 1.486.176 1.474.476 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.525.244 1.526.717 1.537.330 1.545.144 1.552.240 1.559.860 1.569.030 1.579.812 1.592.322 1.606.315 1.621.473 1.637.629 1.654.571 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.525.244 1.526.717 1.537.204 1.542.822 1.545.444 1.546.143 1.548.439 1.552.152 1.557.594 1.564.319 1.572.091 1.580.904 1.590.668 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.525.244 1.526.717 1.537.194 1.543.664 1.548.564 1.553.446 1.559.914 1.567.916 1.577.510 1.588.457 1.600.540 1.613.692 1.627.772
CZ Baseline 2.225.731 2.287.008 2.353.488 2.394.386 2.436.828 2.481.036 2.527.265 2.575.781 2.626.064 2.678.019 2.731.358 2.785.550 2.839.844 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.225.731 2.287.008 2.354.029 2.396.211 2.440.010 2.484.986 2.531.826 2.580.792 2.632.029 2.685.192 2.740.209 2.796.830 2.854.764 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.225.731 2.287.008 2.353.891 2.393.641 2.432.998 2.470.887 2.510.619 2.552.214 2.595.985 2.640.951 2.686.645 2.732.294 2.777.342 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.225.731 2.287.008 2.353.654 2.393.749 2.434.524 2.475.701 2.518.770 2.563.907 2.611.080 2.659.791 2.709.783 2.760.612 2.811.969
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 12.867.517 12.911.684 12.961.004 12.986.372 13.009.557 13.029.803 13.046.554 13.058.843 13.063.474 13.059.085 13.044.284 13.017.559 12.977.752 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 12.867.517 12.911.684 13.034.286 13.151.972 13.274.302 13.401.570 13.539.985 13.690.040 13.852.388 14.026.195 14.210.796 14.405.586 14.609.710 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 12.867.517 12.911.684 13.032.681 13.129.255 13.207.927 13.267.167 13.337.284 13.417.872 13.511.533 13.616.834 13.733.915 13.862.790 14.003.253 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 12.867.517 12.911.684 13.032.854 13.136.942 13.236.062 13.333.228 13.441.872 13.562.343 13.695.394 13.840.270 13.996.696 14.164.205 14.342.112
DK Baseline 620.579 603.949 589.590572.971 558.494 546.912 538.093 530.849 523.528 515.089 505.402 495.106 485.237 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 620.579 603.949 606.832 606.806 607.529 609.054 611.248 614.161 617.948 623.052 630.044 639.523 651.771 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 620.579 603.949 606.834 606.758 607.366 608.717 610.823 613.720 617.551 622.647 629.525 638.738 650.574 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 620.579 603.949 606.811 606.532 606.890 608.077 610.096 612.946 616.696 621.681 628.410 637.459 649.139
ES Baseline 7.114.437 7.173.468 7.237.778 7.327.009 7.417.873 7.510.009 7.602.995 7.696.168 7.787.495 7.875.751 7.959.339 8.036.431 8.105.217 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.114.437 7.173.468 7.249.340 7.357.962 7.472.587 7.592.957 7.717.866 7.847.248 7.982.348 8.122.588 8.268.116 8.418.923 8.574.916 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.114.437 7.173.468 7.248.804 7.352.470 7.456.316 7.559.543 7.666.962 7.778.276 7.895.817 8.018.243 8.145.849 8.278.618 8.416.417 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.114.437 7.173.468 7.248.813 7.352.726 7.458.897 7.568.170 7.682.264 7.801.104 7.925.621 8.055.245 8.190.115 8.330.197 8.475.377
FI Baseline 834.520 818.862 802.598789.377 777.605 769.262 765.073 764.754 766.960 769.451 769.912 767.076 761.082 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 834.520 818.862 821.835 833.786 846.798 860.323 874.360 889.011 904.403 920.760 938.402 958.020 980.347 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 834.520 818.862 821.830 833.070 844.352 855.279 867.204 880.334 894.828 910.654 927.797 946.593 967.509 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 834.520 818.862 821.807 833.117 844.930 857.131 870.235 884.334 899.468 915.703 933.161 952.341 973.861
FR Baseline 10.927.048 10.932.315 10.942.643 10.985.856 11.029.990 11.073.878 11.116.373 11.155.825 11.188.898 11.213.521 11.227.513 11.228.620 11.214.908 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.927.048 10.932.315 10.965.674 11.042.492 11.121.866 11.205.120 11.295.437 11.392.736 11.498.062 11.610.202 11.728.621 11.852.882 11.982.507 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.927.048 10.932.315 10.964.302 11.026.537 11.074.525 11.108.642 11.149.467 11.196.201 11.251.655 11.314.309 11.384.444 11.462.441 11.548.600 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.927.048 10.932.315 10.964.570 11.031.605 11.093.625 11.154.214 11.222.213 11.297.386 11.380.630 11.471.085 11.568.597 11.673.007 11.784.048
GR Baseline 2.529.610 2.516.213 2.504.489 2.519.062 2.531.550 2.541.830 2.549.840 2.555.467 2.558.081 2.557.580 2.553.844 2.546.795 2.536.454 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.529.610 2.516.213 2.516.331 2.552.785 2.591.285 2.630.730 2.670.538 2.710.609 2.751.128 2.792.051 2.833.363 2.875.066 2.917.170 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.529.610 2.516.213 2.516.331 2.552.459 2.589.791 2.627.010 2.664.342 2.701.677 2.739.442 2.777.470 2.815.787 2.854.429 2.893.422 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.529.610 2.516.213 2.516.331 2.552.354 2.589.597 2.627.252 2.665.259 2.703.542 2.742.239 2.781.328 2.820.799 2.860.651 2.900.920
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 1.745.349 1.783.961 1.827.571 1.849.801 1.872.221 1.894.669 1.916.935 1.938.838 1.959.459 1.978.391 1.994.959 2.008.539 2.019.001 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.745.349 1.783.961 1.828.299 1.851.762 1.875.876 1.900.275 1.925.116 1.950.618 1.977.030 2.004.851 2.034.772 2.067.377 2.103.383 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.745.349 1.783.961 1.828.357 1.850.616 1.872.440 1.892.599 1.912.654 1.932.584 1.952.701 1.973.140 1.994.451 2.017.133 2.042.416 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.745.349 1.783.961 1.828.109 1.850.357 1.872.655 1.894.496 1.916.504 1.938.802 1.961.532 1.985.125 2.010.273 2.037.633 2.068.063
IE Baseline 679.353 672.649 666.270664.661 663.132 661.786 660.731 660.062 659.631 659.475 659.641 660.124 660.926 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 679.353 672.649 683.093 703.091 724.727 747.874 772.354 798.140 825.143 853.312 882.515 912.632 943.527 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 679.353 672.649 683.076 702.707 723.404 744.888 767.584 791.462 816.549 842.765 869.988 898.141 927.115 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 679.353 672.649 683.062 702.657 723.463 745.440 768.737 793.337 819.147 846.119 874.135 903.080 932.829
IT Baseline 17.248.233 17.219.169 17.199.261 17.136.488 17.080.557 17.030.928 16.986.822 16.946.886 16.907.158 16.865.205 16.818.136 16.762.623 16.695.332 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 17.248.233 17.219.169 17.216.170 17.179.690 17.154.154 17.140.565 17.137.736 17.145.746 17.166.069 17.197.436 17.239.870 17.293.124 17.356.457 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 17.248.233 17.219.169 17.214.068 17.164.296 17.112.658 17.059.978 17.018.454 16.987.052 16.968.923 16.961.727 16.965.982 16.981.618 17.008.081 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 17.248.233 17.219.169 17.214.088 17.165.787 17.121.453 17.084.327 17.059.124 17.045.448 17.044.299 17.054.421 17.076.027 17.108.819 17.152.220
LU Baseline 33.603 33.395 33.332 33.222 33.135 33.029 32.881 32.680 32.419 32.109 31.760 31.379 30.974 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 33.603 33.395 34.294 35.294 36.299 37.303 38.239 39.068 39.773 40.357 40.846 41.271 41.664 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 33.603 33.395 34.289 35.238 36.139 36.978 37.757 38.437 39.016 39.497 39.908 40.281 40.642 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 33.603 33.395 34.290 35.248 36.178 37.080 37.923 38.668 39.300 39.826 40.271 40.667 41.040
NL Baseline 2.839.682 2.854.465 2.870.862 2.884.565 2.896.275 2.905.172 2.911.438 2.915.947 2.919.340 2.922.155 2.923.572 2.922.126 2.916.960 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.839.682 2.854.465 2.881.927 2.910.201 2.939.661 2.971.222 3.005.861 3.045.016 3.089.951 3.140.222 3.194.121 3.249.666 3.305.581 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.839.682 2.854.465 2.881.771 2.908.617 2.935.045 2.961.208 2.989.483 3.021.049 3.057.558 3.098.652 3.143.079 3.189.246 3.236.166 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.839.682 2.854.465 2.881.737 2.908.586 2.935.591 2.963.600 2.994.191 3.028.746 3.068.578 3.113.481 3.162.023 3.212.409 3.263.487
PL Baseline 6.922.604 7.122.786 7.335.891 7.499.830 7.671.197 7.850.221 8.036.298 8.228.864 8.426.242 8.629.170 8.838.865 9.055.739 9.279.757 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.922.604 7.122.786 7.337.530 7.504.539 7.677.891 7.855.380 8.039.116 8.228.545 8.423.068 8.622.542 8.827.312 9.037.616 9.254.431 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.922.604 7.122.786 7.336.882 7.493.363 7.646.877 7.793.788 7.946.784 8.102.739 8.259.871 8.415.651 8.569.130 8.720.322 8.871.979 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.922.604 7.122.786 7.336.224 7.495.421 7.657.054 7.819.949 7.989.099 8.162.905 8.339.725 8.518.613 8.699.646 8.883.103 9.070.629
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 1.866.474 1.834.869 1.801.353 1.789.105 1.774.518 1.757.982 1.740.667 1.724.494 1.711.022 1.702.423 1.699.746 1.702.046 1.706.550 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.866.474 1.834.869 1.803.408 1.795.678 1.787.741 1.779.693 1.772.220 1.767.074 1.766.205 1.771.410 1.783.696 1.802.433 1.825.575 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.866.474 1.834.869 1.803.084 1.793.952 1.782.833 1.770.082 1.757.447 1.746.792 1.740.529 1.740.534 1.747.998 1.762.344 1.781.450 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.866.474 1.834.869 1.802.990 1.793.648 1.782.852 1.771.161 1.759.937 1.751.081 1.746.617 1.748.475 1.757.721 1.773.713 1.794.321
SE Baseline 1.051.713 1.053.057 1.056.349 1.058.527 1.061.016 1.064.598 1.069.667 1.075.708 1.081.190 1.084.473 1.084.486 1.081.031 1.074.725 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.051.713 1.053.057 1.067.606 1.082.941 1.098.686 1.114.710 1.131.162 1.148.111 1.165.715 1.184.179 1.203.874 1.225.176 1.248.359 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.051.713 1.053.057 1.067.589 1.082.104 1.096.144 1.109.635 1.123.939 1.139.136 1.155.305 1.172.251 1.190.053 1.208.880 1.229.006 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.051.713 1.053.057 1.067.585 1.082.268 1.096.926 1.111.715 1.127.205 1.143.429 1.160.430 1.178.215 1.196.991 1.217.043 1.238.665
SI Baseline 542.504 549.994 558.272568.244 578.412 588.796 599.417 610.295 621.357 632.628 644.056 655.439 666.419 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 542.503 549.994 558.741 569.407 580.350 591.544 603.310 615.784 629.136 643.504 659.027 675.736 693.542 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 542.503 549.994 558.722 568.783 578.399 587.458 597.088 607.364 618.506 630.594 643.772 658.078 673.430 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 542.503 549.994 558.703 568.966 579.202 589.471 600.320 611.867 624.274 637.679 652.223 667.939 684.739
UK Baseline 8.293.058 8.307.122 8.328.586 8.352.843 8.375.633 8.395.561 8.411.361 8.421.435 8.421.738 8.410.894 8.387.609 8.350.906 8.300.502 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.293.058 8.307.122 8.398.851 8.513.658 8.641.667 8.782.084 8.932.958 9.092.995 9.261.028 9.435.199 9.613.756 9.794.868 9.976.930 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.293.058 8.307.122 8.397.896 8.503.762 8.612.690 8.721.970 8.840.357 8.966.405 9.100.468 9.240.407 9.385.316 9.534.058 9.685.685 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.293.058 8.307.122 8.397.930 8.505.075 8.619.465 8.741.166 8.873.099 9.014.124 9.163.215 9.318.709 9.479.205 9.643.154 9.809.223
stock PCGHS 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 248.656 528.198 860.823 1.153.067 1.453.993 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 248.656 528.198 860.823 1.153.067 1.453.993 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 248.656 528.198 860.823 1.153.067 1.453.993 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 248.656 528.198 860.823 1.153.067 1.453.993
EU15 Baseline 212.829 449.554 720.778 972.011 1.230.084 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 212.829 449.554 720.778 972.011 1.230.084 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 212.829 449.554 720.778 972.011 1.230.084 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 212.829 449.554 720.778 972.011 1.230.084
EU10 Baseline 35.827 78.643 140.045 181.056 223.909 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 35.827 78.643 140.045 181.056 223.909 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 35.827 78.643 140.045 181.056 223.909 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 35.827 78.643 140.045 181.056 223.909
AT Baseline 14.144 29.750 46.315 63.123 79.617 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.144 29.750 46.315 63.123 79.617 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.144 29.750 46.315 63.123 79.617 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.144 29.750 46.315 63.123 79.617
BE Baseline 10.149 18.121 25.537 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.149 18.121 25.537 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.149 18.121 25.537 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.149 18.121 25.537
CZ Baseline 2 3 4 6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2 3 4 6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2 3 4 6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2 3 4 6
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 44.493 92.888 145.425 203.868 264.479 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 44.493 92.888 145.425 203.868 264.479 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 44.493 92.888 145.425 203.868 264.479 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 44.493 92.888 145.425 203.868 264.479
DK Baseline 13.069 26.726 41.243 55.186 70.215 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.069 26.726 41.243 55.186 70.215 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.069 26.726 41.243 55.186 70.215 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.069 26.726 41.243 55.186 70.215
ES Baseline 6.378 14.601 24.657 33.291 42.475 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.378 14.601 24.657 33.291 42.475 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.378 14.601 24.657 33.291 42.475 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.378 14.601 24.657 33.291 42.475
FI Baseline 15.467 31.376 47.787 62.040 76.892 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 15.467 31.376 47.787 62.040 76.892 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 15.467 31.376 47.787 62.040 76.892 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 15.467 31.376 47.787 62.040 76.892
FR Baseline 12.518 27.288 44.004 60.192 77.271 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 12.518 27.288 44.004 60.192 77.271 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 12.518 27.288 44.004 60.192 77.271 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 12.518 27.288 44.004 60.192 77.271
GR Baseline 12.971 30.794 52.321 59.284 67.446 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 12.971 30.794 52.321 59.284 67.446 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 12.971 30.794 52.321 59.284 67.446 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 12.971 30.794 52.321 59.284 67.446
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 155 295 482 670 862 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 155 295 482 670 862 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 155 295 482 670 862 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 155 295 482 670 862
IE Baseline 15.517 32.170 50.132 64.968 79.884 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 15.517 32.170 50.132 64.968 79.884 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 15.517 32.170 50.132 64.968 79.884 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 15.517 32.170 50.132 64.968 79.884
IT Baseline 7.034 15.635 25.720 37.539 50.121 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.034 15.635 25.720 37.539 50.121 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.034 15.635 25.720 37.539 50.121 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.034 15.635 25.720 37.539 50.121
LU Baseline 704 1.354 1.992 2.607 3.202 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 704 1.354 1.992 2.607 3.202 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 704 1.354 1.992 2.607 3.202 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 704 1.354 1.992 2.607 3.202
NL Baseline 9.106 18.531 28.540 38.848 49.292 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.106 18.531 28.540 38.848 49.292 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.106 18.531 28.540 38.848 49.292 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.106 18.531 28.540 38.848 49.292
PL Baseline Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d)
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 852 1.848 3.121 4.083 5.184 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 852 1.848 3.121 4.083 5.184 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 852 1.848 3.121 4.083 5.184 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 852 1.848 3.121 4.083 5.184
SE Baseline 7.301 15.162 23.827 32.213 41.331 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.301 15.162 23.827 32.213 41.331 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.301 15.162 23.827 32.213 41.331 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.301 15.162 23.827 32.213 41.331
SI Baseline 76 195 376 613 891 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 76 195 376 613 891 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 76 195 376 613 891 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 76 195 376 613 891
UK Baseline 53.276 111.431 175.545 236.647 297.138 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 53.276 111.431 175.545 236.647 297.138 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 53.276 111.431 175.545 236.647 297.138 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 53.276 111.431 175.545 236.647 297.138
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 1.763.882 2.082.459 2.414.614 2.804.403 3.241.609 3.730.915 4.279.088 4.896.177 5.601.845 6.409.357 7.331.127 8.377.251 9.554.149 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.763.882 2.082.459 2.053.337 2.014.977 1.966.144 1.905.690 1.832.559 1.745.867 1.645.156 1.530.855 1.404.651 1.269.249 1.127.820 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.763.882 2.082.459 2.053.337 2.014.977 1.966.144 1.905.690 1.832.559 1.745.867 1.645.156 1.530.855 1.404.651 1.269.249 1.127.820 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.763.882 2.082.459 2.053.337 2.014.977 1.966.144 1.905.690 1.832.559 1.745.867 1.645.156 1.530.855 1.404.651 1.269.249 1.127.820
EU15 Baseline 1.494.884 1.765.960 2.047.452 2.372.547 2.737.003 3.144.889 3.602.342 4.118.267 4.709.577 5.388.066 6.164.774 7.048.758 8.046.406 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.494.884 1.765.960 1.737.798 1.700.964 1.654.497 1.597.645 1.529.893 1.450.994 1.361.074 1.260.808 1.151.554 1.035.265 914.322 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.494.884 1.765.960 1.737.798 1.700.964 1.654.497 1.597.645 1.529.893 1.450.994 1.361.074 1.260.808 1.151.554 1.035.265 914.322 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.494.884 1.765.960 1.737.798 1.700.964 1.654.497 1.597.645 1.529.893 1.450.994 1.361.074 1.260.808 1.151.554 1.035.265 914.322
EU10 Baseline 268.998 316.500 367.162 431.856 504.606 586.026 676.746 777.910 892.268 1.021.291 1.166.354 1.328.493 1.507.743 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 268.998 316.500 315.538 314.013 311.647 308.044 302.666 294.874 284.082 270.047 253.097 233.984 213.498 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 268.998 316.500 315.538 314.013 311.647 308.044 302.666 294.874 284.082 270.047 253.097 233.984 213.498 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 268.998 316.500 315.538 314.013 311.647 308.044 302.666 294.874 284.082 270.047 253.097 233.984 213.498
AT Baseline 95.394 110.086 123.613 136.078 147.830 159.135 170.430 182.242 195.143 209.450 225.227 242.301 260.359 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 95.394 110.086 109.295 108.083 106.297 103.760 100.283 95.689 89.839 82.676 74.260 64.804 54.675 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 95.394 110.086 109.295 108.083 106.297 103.760 100.283 95.689 89.839 82.676 74.260 64.804 54.675 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 95.394 110.086 109.295 108.083 106.297 103.760 100.283 95.689 89.839 82.676 74.260 64.804 54.675
BE Baseline 32.789 40.135 47.701 55.925 65.285 75.919 87.977 101.633 117.218 134.929 154.943 177.402 202.400 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 32.789 40.135 39.605 38.850 37.824 36.488 34.813 32.788 30.420 27.743 24.814 21.716 18.550 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 32.789 40.135 39.605 38.850 37.824 36.488 34.813 32.788 30.420 27.743 24.814 21.716 18.550 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 32.789 40.135 39.605 38.850 37.824 36.488 34.813 32.788 30.420 27.743 24.814 21.716 18.550
CZ Baseline 8 11 16 24 39 70 130 243 469 924 1.849 3.681 7.111 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 327.083 391.458 458.532533.650 619.480 717.125 827.646 952.261 1.093.344 1.252.308 1.430.421 1.628.802 1.848.372 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 327.083 391.458 384.145 374.761 363.160 349.272 333.114 314.796 294.525 272.597 249.391 225.349 200.959 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 327.083 391.458 384.145 374.761 363.160 349.272 333.114 314.796 294.525 272.597 249.391 225.349 200.959 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 327.083 391.458 384.145 374.761 363.160 349.272 333.114 314.796 294.525 272.597 249.391 225.349 200.959
DK Baseline 86.309 103.226 120.723136.309 150.436 162.500 172.589 181.630 190.946 201.406 213.153 225.668 238.050 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 86.309 103.226 103.171 103.064 102.862 102.491 101.830 100.688 98.778 95.706 90.994 84.191 75.079 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 86.309 103.226 103.171 103.064 102.862 102.491 101.830 100.688 98.778 95.706 90.994 84.191 75.079 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 86.309 103.226 103.171 103.064 102.862 102.491 101.830 100.688 98.778 95.706 90.994 84.191 75.079
ES Baseline 52.210 62.500 73.581 87.959 105.556 126.945 152.801 183.923 221.827 267.811 323.411 390.310 470.266 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 52.210 62.500 62.121 61.590 60.875 59.939 58.749 57.272 55.482 53.361 50.900 48.101 44.985 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 52.210 62.500 62.121 61.590 60.875 59.939 58.749 57.272 55.482 53.361 50.900 48.101 44.985 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 52.210 62.500 62.121 61.590 60.875 59.939 58.749 57.272 55.482 53.361 50.900 48.101 44.985
FI Baseline 92.906 110.571 130.057152.178 173.640 192.871 209.269 223.028 235.208 247.627 262.203 280.025 301.026 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 92.906 110.571 110.540 110.478 110.361 110.148 109.765 109.100 107.972 106.118 103.171 98.675 92.159 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 92.906 110.571 110.540 110.478 110.361 110.148 109.765 109.100 107.972 106.118 103.171 98.675 92.159 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 92.906 110.571 110.540 110.478 110.361 110.148 109.765 109.100 107.972 106.118 103.171 98.675 92.159
FR Baseline 95.212 114.006 134.032159.815 191.651 230.774 278.534 336.444 406.798 491.425 592.088 710.456 848.056 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 95.212 114.006 110.930 106.958 102.036 96.162 89.390 81.831 73.656 65.084 56.365 47.767 39.547 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 95.212 114.006 110.930 106.958 102.036 96.162 89.390 81.831 73.656 65.084 56.365 47.767 39.547 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 95.212 114.006 110.930 106.958 102.036 96.162 89.390 81.831 73.656 65.084 56.365 47.767 39.547
GR Baseline 76.767 87.222 99.061 119.226 141.882 167.143 195.084 225.822 259.982 297.679 339.040 384.133 432.959 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 76.767 87.222 87.218 87.211 87.200 87.183 87.155 87.113 87.049 86.955 86.819 86.625 86.353 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 76.767 87.222 87.218 87.211 87.200 87.183 87.155 87.113 87.049 86.955 86.819 86.625 86.353 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 76.767 87.222 87.218 87.211 87.200 87.183 87.155 87.113 87.049 86.955 86.819 86.625 86.353
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 1.064 1.288 1.570 1.928 2.516 3.480 5.062 7.655 12.051 19.305 30.812 47.872 70.907 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.064 1.288 1.287 1.285 1.282 1.276 1.265 1.246 1.214 1.165 1.090 987 856 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.064 1.288 1.287 1.285 1.282 1.276 1.265 1.246 1.214 1.165 1.090 987 856 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.064 1.288 1.287 1.285 1.282 1.276 1.265 1.246 1.214 1.165 1.090 987 856
IE Baseline 94.821 109.716 124.664142.313 160.621 179.523 198.957 218.867 239.373 260.462 282.108 304.315 327.087 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 94.821 109.716 107.476 104.637 101.166 97.050 92.303 86.963 81.098 74.799 68.179 61.367 54.501 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 94.821 109.716 107.476 104.637 101.166 97.050 92.303 86.963 81.098 74.799 68.179 61.367 54.501 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 94.821 109.716 107.476 104.637 101.166 97.050 92.303 86.963 81.098 74.799 68.179 61.367 54.501
IT Baseline 63.446 77.504 92.678 111.107 134.383 163.551 199.812 244.635 300.488 369.574 454.439 557.805 682.475 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 63.446 77.504 76.651 75.516 74.061 72.254 70.073 67.504 64.547 61.217 57.540 53.561 49.336 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 63.446 77.504 76.651 75.516 74.061 72.254 70.073 67.504 64.547 61.217 57.540 53.561 49.336 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 63.446 77.504 76.651 75.516 74.061 72.254 70.073 67.504 64.547 61.217 57.540 53.561 49.336
LU Baseline 3.753 4.238 4.650 5.035 5.434 5.871 6.364 6.917 7.533 8.201 8.913 9.660 10.434 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.753 4.238 3.669 3.032 2.373 1.742 1.184 734 407 197 81 28 8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.753 4.238 3.669 3.032 2.373 1.742 1.184 734 407 197 81 28 8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.753 4.238 3.669 3.032 2.373 1.742 1.184 734 407 197 81 28 8
NL Baseline 59.794 70.330 81.196 93.926 109.492 128.799 152.478 180.750 213.609 250.500 291.265 336.327 386.118 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 59.794 70.330 70.100 69.660 68.849 67.418 65.013 61.218 55.687 48.395 39.818 30.784 22.076 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 59.794 70.330 70.100 69.660 68.849 67.418 65.013 61.218 55.687 48.395 39.818 30.784 22.076 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 59.794 70.330 70.100 69.660 68.849 67.418 65.013 61.218 55.687 48.395 39.818 30.784 22.076
PL Baseline 11 3 6 16 40 105 274 690 1.649 3.645 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d)
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 6.443 7.889 9.615 12.610 16.715 22.202 29.272 37.964 48.353 60.222 73.435 88.220 105.244 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.443 7.889 7.883 7.873 7.852 7.814 7.747 7.631 7.439 7.135 6.680 6.047 5.240 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.443 7.889 7.883 7.873 7.852 7.814 7.747 7.631 7.439 7.135 6.680 6.047 5.240 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.443 7.889 7.883 7.873 7.852 7.814 7.747 7.631 7.439 7.135 6.680 6.047 5.240
SE Baseline 51.229 61.843 73.115 85.044 97.118 108.681 119.393 129.681 140.851 154.351 171.162 191.503 214.873 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 51.229 61.843 61.818 61.769 61.677 61.508 61.205 60.678 59.790 58.345 56.089 52.742 48.089 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 51.229 61.843 61.818 61.769 61.677 61.508 61.205 60.678 59.790 58.345 56.089 52.742 48.089 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 51.229 61.843 61.818 61.769 61.677 61.508 61.205 60.678 59.790 58.345 56.089 52.742 48.089
SI Baseline 1.209 1.572 2.003 2.625 3.476 4.615 6.113 8.054 10.578 13.815 17.926 23.119 29.648 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.209 1.572 1.571 1.570 1.567 1.562 1.553 1.537 1.510 1.467 1.399 1.299 1.164 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.209 1.572 1.571 1.570 1.567 1.562 1.553 1.537 1.510 1.467 1.399 1.299 1.164 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.209 1.572 1.571 1.570 1.567 1.562 1.553 1.537 1.510 1.467 1.399 1.299 1.164
UK Baseline 356.728 415.236 474.236541.373 617.480 703.850 801.736 912.471 1.038.905 1.182.120 1.342.966 1.521.835 1.718.688 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 356.728 415.236 403.177 387.482 367.903 344.417 317.270 286.990 254.384 220.481 186.454 153.508 122.764 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 356.728 415.236 403.177 387.482 367.903 344.417 317.270 286.990 254.384 220.481 186.454 153.508 122.764 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 356.728 415.236 403.177 387.482 367.903 344.417 317.270 286.990 254.384 220.481 186.454 153.508 122.764
stock PCGM 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 55.314.206 56.509.871 57.799.547 59.047.523 60.444.921 62.000.163 61.932.601 61.840.552 61.705.870 61.530.494 61.338.539 61.042.046 60.185.213 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 55.314.206 56.509.871 57.799.547 59.047.523 60.444.921 62.000.163 61.932.601 61.840.552 61.705.870 61.530.495 61.338.539 61.042.046 60.185.213 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 55.314.206 56.509.871 57.799.547 59.047.523 60.444.921 62.000.163 61.932.601 61.840.552 61.705.870 61.530.495 61.338.539 61.042.046 60.185.213 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 55.314.206 56.509.871 57.799.547 59.047.523 60.444.921 62.000.163 61.932.601 61.840.552 61.705.870 61.530.495 61.338.539 61.042.046 60.185.213
EU15 Baseline 49.919.294 50.939.310 52.028.898 53.148.303 54.378.173 55.710.061 55.594.348 55.466.190 55.313.953 55.132.020 54.937.685 54.670.505 53.910.881 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 49.919.294 50.939.310 52.028.898 53.148.303 54.378.173 55.710.061 55.594.348 55.466.190 55.313.953 55.132.020 54.937.685 54.670.505 53.910.881 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 49.919.294 50.939.310 52.028.898 53.148.303 54.378.173 55.710.061 55.594.348 55.466.190 55.313.953 55.132.020 54.937.685 54.670.505 53.910.881 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 49.919.294 50.939.310 52.028.898 53.148.303 54.378.173 55.710.061 55.594.348 55.466.190 55.313.953 55.132.020 54.937.685 54.670.505 53.910.881
EU10 Baseline 5.394.912 5.570.561 5.770.649 5.899.220 6.066.748 6.290.102 6.338.253 6.374.363 6.391.917 6.398.475 6.400.853 6.371.542 6.274.332 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.394.912 5.570.561 5.770.649 5.899.220 6.066.748 6.290.102 6.338.253 6.374.363 6.391.917 6.398.475 6.400.853 6.371.541 6.274.332 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.394.912 5.570.561 5.770.649 5.899.220 6.066.748 6.290.102 6.338.253 6.374.363 6.391.917 6.398.475 6.400.853 6.371.541 6.274.332 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.394.912 5.570.561 5.770.649 5.899.220 6.066.748 6.290.102 6.338.253 6.374.363 6.391.917 6.398.475 6.400.853 6.371.541 6.274.332
AT Baseline 1.385.770 1.349.807 1.315.976 1.285.043 1.256.652 1.231.741 1.189.755 1.148.451 1.106.548 1.062.583 1.015.951 967.183 906.619 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.385.770 1.349.807 1.315.976 1.285.043 1.256.652 1.231.741 1.189.755 1.148.451 1.106.548 1.062.583 1.015.951 967.183 906.619 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.385.770 1.349.807 1.315.976 1.285.043 1.256.652 1.231.741 1.189.755 1.148.451 1.106.548 1.062.583 1.015.951 967.183 906.619 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.385.770 1.349.807 1.315.976 1.285.043 1.256.652 1.231.741 1.189.755 1.148.451 1.106.548 1.062.583 1.015.951 967.183 906.619
BE Baseline 772.210 778.258 805.837 773.003 770.853 822.217 835.286 838.516 826.668 805.913 782.528 763.437 733.763 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 772.210 778.258 805.837 773.003 770.853 822.217 835.286 838.516 826.668 805.913 782.528 763.437 733.763 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 772.210 778.258 805.837 773.003 770.853 822.217 835.286 838.516 826.668 805.913 782.528 763.437 733.763 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 772.210 778.258 805.837 773.003 770.853 822.217 835.286 838.516 826.668 805.913 782.528 763.437 733.763
CZ Baseline 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 712.342 693.498 683.221 678.579 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 712.342 693.498 683.221 678.579 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 712.342 693.498 683.221 678.579 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 763.031 712.342 693.498 683.221 678.579
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 17.651.975 17.726.409 17.786.230 17.832.715 17.860.971 17.855.970 17.884.428 17.905.477 17.920.373 17.925.195 17.919.562 18.001.275 17.848.985 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 17.651.975 17.726.409 17.786.230 17.832.715 17.860.971 17.855.970 17.884.428 17.905.477 17.920.373 17.925.196 17.919.562 18.001.275 17.848.985 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 17.651.975 17.726.409 17.786.230 17.832.715 17.860.971 17.855.970 17.884.428 17.905.477 17.920.373 17.925.196 17.919.562 18.001.275 17.848.985 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 17.651.975 17.726.409 17.786.230 17.832.715 17.860.971 17.855.970 17.884.428 17.905.477 17.920.373 17.925.196 17.919.562 18.001.275 17.848.985
DK Baseline 595.547 640.787 689.861743.404 801.347 864.962 864.726 864.477 864.154 863.467 862.183 855.638 839.256 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 595.547 640.787 689.861 743.404 801.347 864.962 864.726 864.477 864.154 863.467 862.183 855.638 839.256 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 595.547 640.787 689.861 743.404 801.347 864.962 864.726 864.477 864.154 863.467 862.183 855.638 839.256 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 595.547 640.787 689.861 743.404 801.347 864.962 864.726 864.477 864.154 863.467 862.183 855.638 839.256
ES Baseline 3.057.484 3.263.849 3.485.230 3.731.934 3.998.885 4.330.348 4.393.781 4.456.507 4.519.466 4.579.637 4.641.356 4.635.922 4.622.326 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.057.484 3.263.849 3.485.230 3.731.934 3.998.885 4.330.348 4.393.781 4.456.507 4.519.466 4.579.637 4.641.356 4.635.922 4.622.326 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.057.484 3.263.849 3.485.230 3.731.934 3.998.885 4.330.348 4.393.781 4.456.507 4.519.466 4.579.637 4.641.356 4.635.922 4.622.326 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.057.484 3.263.849 3.485.230 3.731.934 3.998.885 4.330.348 4.393.781 4.456.507 4.519.466 4.579.637 4.641.356 4.635.922 4.622.326
FI Baseline 605.192 744.301 912.8441.117.295 1.365.065 1.659.187 1.677.489 1.695.791 1.714.046 1.732.083 1.749.719 1.751.472 1.740.605 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 605.192 744.301 912.844 1.117.295 1.365.065 1.659.187 1.677.489 1.695.791 1.714.046 1.732.083 1.749.719 1.751.472 1.740.605 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 605.192 744.301 912.844 1.117.295 1.365.065 1.659.187 1.677.489 1.695.791 1.714.046 1.732.083 1.749.719 1.751.472 1.740.605 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 605.192 744.301 912.844 1.117.295 1.365.065 1.659.187 1.677.489 1.695.791 1.714.046 1.732.083 1.749.719 1.751.472 1.740.605
FR Baseline 7.715.143 7.568.423 7.415.485 7.262.084 7.108.269 6.947.278 6.700.344 6.459.419 6.229.242 6.005.632 5.795.090 5.573.192 5.344.697 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.715.143 7.568.423 7.415.485 7.262.084 7.108.269 6.947.278 6.700.344 6.459.419 6.229.242 6.005.632 5.795.090 5.573.192 5.344.697 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.715.143 7.568.423 7.415.485 7.262.084 7.108.269 6.947.278 6.700.344 6.459.419 6.229.242 6.005.632 5.795.090 5.573.192 5.344.697 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.715.143 7.568.423 7.415.485 7.262.084 7.108.269 6.947.278 6.700.344 6.459.419 6.229.242 6.005.632 5.795.090 5.573.192 5.344.697
GR Baseline 264.296 293.401 325.352360.393 398.854 440.868 455.417 470.394 485.814 501.711 518.026 516.287 512.352 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 264.296 293.401 325.352 360.393 398.854 440.868 455.417 470.394 485.814 501.711 518.026 516.287 512.352 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 264.296 293.401 325.352 360.393 398.854 440.868 455.417 470.394 485.814 501.711 518.026 516.287 512.352 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 264.296 293.401 325.352 360.393 398.854 440.868 455.417 470.394 485.814 501.711 518.026 516.287 512.352
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 604.205 604.205 604.205604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 632.859 654.812 673.391 690.320 707.055 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 632.859 654.812 673.391 690.320 707.055 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 632.859 654.812 673.391 690.320 707.055 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 604.205 632.859 654.812 673.391 690.320 707.055
IE Baseline 201.477 239.610 282.531331.387 386.681 448.417 462.072 475.671 489.113 502.348 515.209 520.244 516.044 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 201.477 239.610 282.531 331.387 386.681 448.417 462.072 475.671 489.113 502.348 515.209 520.244 516.044 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 201.477 239.610 282.531 331.387 386.681 448.417 462.072 475.671 489.113 502.348 515.209 520.244 516.044 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 201.477 239.610 282.531 331.387 386.681 448.417 462.072 475.671 489.113 502.348 515.209 520.244 516.044
IT Baseline 3.840.512 4.098.935 4.378.908 4.689.860 5.025.830 5.350.800 5.264.989 5.176.257 5.085.206 4.988.503 4.888.520 4.814.708 4.718.840 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.840.512 4.098.935 4.378.908 4.689.860 5.025.830 5.350.800 5.264.989 5.176.257 5.085.206 4.988.503 4.888.520 4.814.708 4.718.840 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.840.512 4.098.935 4.378.908 4.689.860 5.025.830 5.350.800 5.264.989 5.176.257 5.085.206 4.988.503 4.888.520 4.814.708 4.718.840 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.840.512 4.098.935 4.378.908 4.689.860 5.025.830 5.350.800 5.264.989 5.176.257 5.085.206 4.988.503 4.888.520 4.814.708 4.718.840
LU Baseline 79.690 79.208 78.427 77.587 76.668 75.107 70.616 66.830 63.718 61.223 59.217 57.626 54.870 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 79.690 79.208 78.427 77.587 76.668 75.107 70.616 66.830 63.718 61.223 59.217 57.626 54.870 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 79.690 79.208 78.427 77.587 76.668 75.107 70.616 66.830 63.718 61.223 59.217 57.626 54.870 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 79.690 79.208 78.427 77.587 76.668 75.107 70.616 66.830 63.718 61.223 59.217 57.626 54.870
NL Baseline 1.539.839 1.581.271 1.617.753 1.652.243 1.684.593 1.712.169 1.701.907 1.691.198 1.679.958 1.668.539 1.656.890 1.647.804 1.624.133 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.539.839 1.581.271 1.617.753 1.652.243 1.684.593 1.712.169 1.701.907 1.691.198 1.679.958 1.668.539 1.656.890 1.647.804 1.624.133 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.539.839 1.581.271 1.617.753 1.652.243 1.684.593 1.712.169 1.701.907 1.691.198 1.679.958 1.668.539 1.656.890 1.647.804 1.624.133 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.539.839 1.581.271 1.617.753 1.652.243 1.684.593 1.712.169 1.701.907 1.691.198 1.679.958 1.668.539 1.656.890 1.647.804 1.624.133
PL Baseline 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.071.343 3.189.546 3.344.252 3.457.392 3.585.554 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.071.343 3.189.546 3.344.252 3.457.392 3.585.554 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.071.343 3.189.546 3.344.252 3.457.392 3.585.554 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.100.000 3.071.343 3.189.546 3.344.252 3.457.392 3.585.554
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 678.088 672.629 667.076661.826 656.452 651.379 633.153 614.283 590.890 565.677 539.584 506.206 471.870 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 678.088 672.629 667.076 661.826 656.452 651.379 633.153 614.283 590.890 565.677 539.584 506.206 471.870 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 678.088 672.629 667.076 661.826 656.452 651.379 633.153 614.283 590.890 565.677 539.584 506.206 471.870 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 678.088 672.629 667.076 661.826 656.452 651.379 633.153 614.283 590.890 565.677 539.584 506.206 471.870
SE Baseline 1.847.484 1.914.930 1.982.990 2.051.721 2.120.434 2.182.629 2.204.758 2.226.869 2.248.932 2.270.587 2.291.256 2.297.136 2.274.703 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.847.484 1.914.930 1.982.990 2.051.721 2.120.434 2.182.629 2.204.758 2.226.869 2.248.932 2.270.587 2.291.256 2.297.136 2.274.703 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.847.484 1.914.930 1.982.990 2.051.721 2.120.434 2.182.629 2.204.758 2.226.869 2.248.932 2.270.587 2.291.256 2.297.136 2.274.703 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.847.484 1.914.930 1.982.990 2.051.721 2.120.434 2.182.629 2.204.758 2.226.869 2.248.932 2.270.587 2.291.256 2.297.136 2.274.703
SI Baseline 248.164 248.164 248.164248.164 248.164 248.164 256.242 263.218 269.609 275.329 280.322 285.933 290.466 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 248.164 248.164 248.164 248.164 248.164 248.164 256.242 263.218 269.609 275.329 280.322 285.933 290.466 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 248.164 248.164 248.164 248.164 248.164 248.164 256.242 263.218 269.609 275.329 280.322 285.933 290.466 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 248.164 248.164 248.164 248.164 248.164 248.164 256.242 263.218 269.609 275.329 280.322 285.933 290.466
UK Baseline 9.684.588 9.987.490 10.284.39710.577.809 10.866.620 11.136.988 11.255.629 11.376.049 11.489.826 11.598.922 11.702.594 11.762.375 11.701.816 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.684.588 9.987.490 10.284.397 10.577.809 10.866.620 11.136.988 11.255.629 11.376.049 11.489.826 11.598.922 11.702.594 11.762.375 11.701.816 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.684.588 9.987.490 10.284.397 10.577.809 10.866.620 11.136.988 11.255.629 11.376.049 11.489.826 11.598.922 11.702.594 11.762.375 11.701.816 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.684.588 9.987.490 10.284.397 10.577.809 10.866.620 11.136.988 11.255.629 11.376.049 11.489.826 11.598.922 11.702.594 11.762.375 11.701.816
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 59.377.835 58.627.282 57.920.520 57.177.597 56.429.469 55.674.416 54.912.263 54.142.419 53.343.693 52.525.117 51.696.659 50.865.492 50.034.081 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 59.377.834 58.627.281 58.706.444 58.941.584 59.310.776 59.759.993 60.285.389 60.877.587 61.513.385 62.188.371 62.897.515 63.634.108 64.391.399 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 59.377.834 58.627.281 58.706.238 58.916.096 59.229.768 59.606.900 60.059.303 60.578.371 61.142.126 61.746.988 62.389.100 63.062.750 63.761.918 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 59.377.834 58.627.281 58.694.862 58.890.076 59.196.135 59.581.088 60.046.148 60.582.799 61.166.127 61.792.496 62.456.928 63.152.842 63.873.085
EU15 Baseline 53.196.398 52.534.525 51.913.837 51.266.605 50.620.674 49.973.425 49.322.577 48.664.856 47.978.309 47.269.612 46.547.358 45.818.245 45.085.460 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 53.196.398 52.534.524 52.590.236 52.785.332 53.103.026 53.495.316 53.959.547 54.486.160 55.052.257 55.652.388 56.281.085 56.931.827 57.598.690 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 53.196.398 52.534.524 52.589.827 52.761.164 53.027.149 53.352.879 53.749.826 54.209.044 54.708.677 55.244.006 55.810.637 56.403.020 57.015.938 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 53.196.398 52.534.524 52.579.598 52.738.538 52.999.528 53.334.752 53.745.431 54.222.672 54.742.026 55.298.734 55.887.434 56.501.771 57.135.532
EU10 Baseline 6.181.436 6.092.757 6.006.683 5.910.992 5.808.795 5.700.990 5.589.686 5.477.563 5.365.385 5.255.505 5.149.302 5.047.247 4.948.621 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.181.436 6.092.757 6.116.208 6.156.252 6.207.750 6.264.677 6.325.842 6.391.427 6.461.129 6.535.983 6.616.430 6.702.281 6.792.709 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.181.436 6.092.757 6.116.411 6.154.932 6.202.619 6.254.021 6.309.478 6.369.327 6.433.450 6.502.982 6.578.463 6.659.730 6.745.980 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.181.436 6.092.757 6.115.264 6.151.538 6.196.607 6.246.337 6.300.717 6.360.127 6.424.101 6.493.762 6.569.495 6.651.072 6.737.553
AT Baseline 843.653 780.377 719.576 662.030 612.728 573.216 543.384 521.666 505.519 492.805 481.984 472.141 462.811 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 843.653 780.377 731.047 687.591 654.166 630.891 617.579 612.506 613.069 617.090 623.025 629.934 637.348 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 843.653 780.377 731.041 687.213 652.999 628.685 614.340 608.265 607.873 610.996 616.096 622.232 628.930 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 843.653 780.377 730.889 686.958 652.830 628.898 614.984 609.372 609.443 613.018 618.549 625.089 632.163
BE Baseline 706.089 680.421 656.518 631.015 607.100 584.919 564.548 545.983 528.791 512.911 498.239 484.633 471.963 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 706.088 680.420 671.858 664.490 660.895 659.746 660.882 664.063 668.619 674.288 680.771 687.759 694.973 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 706.088 680.420 671.874 664.221 660.012 658.061 658.385 660.773 664.588 669.573 675.436 681.864 688.578 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 706.088 680.420 671.611 663.544 658.888 656.636 656.724 658.945 662.644 667.564 673.403 679.821 686.527
CZ Baseline 678.677 682.801 689.542 690.146 692.036 696.107 703.628 715.933 732.162 751.816 773.632 796.143 817.853 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 678.677 682.801 690.935 693.948 699.310 706.815 717.802 733.651 753.852 778.244 806.107 836.684 869.305 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 678.677 682.801 691.057 693.850 698.611 705.374 715.568 730.615 750.048 773.741 800.977 830.992 863.114 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 678.677 682.801 690.356 692.158 695.747 701.522 710.855 725.162 743.857 766.755 793.082 822.036 852.919
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 17.701.511 17.560.700 17.422.005 17.235.585 17.040.035 16.835.751 16.623.935 16.405.272 16.174.893 15.933.429 15.681.707 15.420.252 15.149.969 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 17.701.511 17.560.700 17.686.698 17.814.791 17.967.713 18.129.166 18.299.940 18.479.102 18.662.510 18.848.875 19.036.357 19.222.888 19.406.867 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 17.701.511 17.560.700 17.686.823 17.807.067 17.943.008 18.081.505 18.229.252 18.385.485 18.546.444 18.710.882 18.877.232 19.043.690 19.208.847 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 17.701.511 17.560.700 17.684.147 17.801.484 17.937.357 18.081.776 18.236.957 18.402.034 18.572.268 18.746.496 18.922.852 19.099.238 19.273.893
DK Baseline 822.483 805.343 787.867763.604 736.070 705.320 672.112 638.065 605.214 575.689 550.864 530.913 514.669 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 822.483 805.343 805.422 800.448 795.471 790.412 785.174 779.926 774.948 770.683 767.539 765.713 765.075 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 822.483 805.343 805.446 800.394 795.214 789.760 784.045 778.246 772.689 767.872 764.256 762.064 761.169 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 822.483 805.343 805.407 800.225 794.836 789.159 783.256 777.346 771.735 766.940 763.394 761.300 760.496
ES Baseline 4.611.920 4.605.316 4.601.982 4.611.791 4.622.732 4.634.504 4.646.797 4.659.220 4.668.249 4.673.455 4.674.298 4.670.451 4.661.841 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.611.920 4.605.316 4.620.289 4.658.153 4.705.220 4.758.328 4.818.238 4.885.073 4.956.318 5.031.959 5.111.690 5.195.172 5.282.138 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.611.920 4.605.316 4.620.352 4.656.691 4.700.026 4.748.414 4.803.323 4.864.919 4.930.719 5.000.802 5.074.931 5.152.853 5.234.375 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.611.920 4.605.316 4.619.283 4.654.198 4.696.566 4.744.950 4.800.197 4.862.502 4.929.224 5.000.389 5.075.707 5.154.878 5.237.672
FI Baseline 1.728.772 1.715.095 1.698.387 1.680.309 1.653.261 1.614.686 1.562.277 1.495.543 1.417.023 1.333.728 1.254.956 1.189.366 1.142.194 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.728.772 1.715.095 1.722.296 1.738.582 1.754.094 1.767.470 1.777.795 1.784.767 1.788.877 1.791.951 1.796.430 1.804.579 1.817.873 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.728.772 1.715.095 1.722.343 1.738.629 1.753.947 1.766.779 1.776.223 1.781.897 1.784.311 1.785.392 1.787.781 1.793.989 1.805.697 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.728.772 1.715.095 1.722.244 1.738.207 1.752.970 1.765.244 1.774.244 1.779.699 1.782.113 1.783.465 1.786.355 1.793.186 1.805.494
FR Baseline 5.143.005 4.968.464 4.818.485 4.696.878 4.593.600 4.505.823 4.430.917 4.365.874 4.305.179 4.246.537 4.188.039 4.128.102 4.065.539 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.143.005 4.968.464 4.860.886 4.797.951 4.764.631 4.752.208 4.758.293 4.779.481 4.810.200 4.847.752 4.889.597 4.933.466 4.977.523 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.143.005 4.968.464 4.860.534 4.794.557 4.755.062 4.735.786 4.735.082 4.749.682 4.774.101 4.805.719 4.842.067 4.880.933 4.920.518 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.143.005 4.968.464 4.859.051 4.791.298 4.750.814 4.731.646 4.731.444 4.746.897 4.772.353 4.805.090 4.842.595 4.882.599 4.923.267
GR Baseline 508.635 505.155 501.851502.362 502.450 502.097 501.294 500.008 498.071 495.437 492.045 487.827 482.722 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 508.635 505.155 506.066 514.134 522.451 530.883 539.369 547.893 556.425 564.964 573.492 581.986 590.428 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 508.635 505.155 506.067 514.136 522.445 530.903 539.435 548.020 556.611 565.213 573.805 582.359 590.859 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 508.635 505.155 506.069 514.129 522.393 530.753 539.173 547.637 556.112 564.599 573.076 581.518 589.909
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 725.322 745.312 766.759778.504 789.833 800.575 810.533 819.575 826.720 831.543 833.325 831.467 825.957 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 725.322 745.312 768.899 783.727 799.128 814.669 830.586 847.312 865.004 884.229 905.277 928.021 951.864 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 725.322 745.312 769.032 783.750 798.869 814.034 829.614 846.023 863.403 882.322 903.073 925.539 949.090 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 725.322 745.312 768.691 782.944 797.547 812.321 827.517 843.539 860.449 878.833 898.993 920.843 943.766
IE Baseline 511.298 506.058 500.246496.337 491.744 486.609 481.097 475.388 469.430 463.371 457.373 451.536 445.952 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 511.298 506.058 511.166 521.525 532.635 543.953 555.618 567.669 580.006 592.630 605.537 618.688 632.052 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 511.298 506.058 511.179 521.382 532.094 542.865 553.988 565.495 577.288 589.376 601.764 614.419 627.314 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 511.298 506.058 511.118 521.264 532.026 543.030 554.417 566.224 578.325 590.731 603.439 616.407 629.602
IT Baseline 4.626.524 4.538.588 4.453.833 4.357.947 4.264.275 4.173.088 4.084.815 3.999.644 3.915.196 3.831.643 3.749.160 3.667.786 3.587.743 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.626.524 4.538.588 4.499.101 4.460.892 4.436.351 4.421.585 4.417.127 4.422.935 4.436.812 4.458.407 4.487.293 4.522.554 4.563.649 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.626.524 4.538.588 4.498.629 4.457.661 4.427.734 4.406.978 4.396.355 4.395.937 4.403.597 4.419.097 4.442.087 4.471.736 4.507.562 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.626.524 4.538.588 4.497.089 4.454.286 4.423.121 4.401.817 4.391.035 4.390.846 4.398.957 4.415.077 4.438.773 4.469.203 4.505.801
LU Baseline 52.464 50.347 48.465 46.405 44.496 42.738 41.120 39.606 38.132 36.670 35.204 33.727 32.244 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 52.464 50.347 50.156 50.060 50.185 50.329 50.443 50.423 50.170 49.656 48.902 47.959 46.887 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 52.464 50.347 50.147 49.975 49.956 49.927 49.887 49.735 49.379 48.793 47.997 47.039 45.970 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 52.464 50.347 50.138 49.989 50.040 50.126 50.194 50.140 49.865 49.340 48.584 47.646 46.581
NL Baseline 1.601.980 1.581.547 1.562.428 1.541.309 1.520.190 1.499.293 1.479.031 1.459.548 1.439.902 1.419.613 1.398.447 1.376.522 1.353.990 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.601.980 1.581.547 1.590.935 1.606.139 1.627.275 1.651.651 1.678.539 1.707.493 1.737.895 1.769.833 1.803.533 1.839.117 1.876.357 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.601.980 1.581.547 1.591.019 1.605.647 1.625.343 1.647.799 1.672.865 1.700.169 1.729.108 1.759.724 1.792.176 1.826.533 1.862.545 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.601.980 1.581.547 1.590.444 1.604.035 1.622.534 1.644.148 1.668.532 1.695.293 1.723.719 1.753.846 1.785.830 1.819.754 1.855.371
PL Baseline 3.731.298 3.895.752 4.077.489 4.238.604 4.413.000 4.596.258 4.781.193 4.962.410 5.137.677 5.312.089 5.490.696 5.673.739 5.856.330 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.731.298 3.895.752 4.081.402 4.249.393 4.432.794 4.623.665 4.815.750 5.003.906 5.187.287 5.371.569 5.562.754 5.762.586 5.968.146 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.731.298 3.895.752 4.081.632 4.247.946 4.427.568 4.613.661 4.800.734 4.983.784 5.162.110 5.341.379 5.527.497 5.722.141 5.922.360 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.731.298 3.895.752 4.079.527 4.243.219 4.420.559 4.605.779 4.792.423 4.975.328 5.153.199 5.331.723 5.516.907 5.710.528 5.909.686
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 437.801 405.351 376.052356.665 343.876 337.744 336.652 338.213 340.305 342.454 344.619 346.739 348.604 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 437.801 405.351 377.021 359.682 349.736 346.721 349.061 354.389 360.637 367.330 374.444 381.998 389.909 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 437.801 405.351 376.972 359.262 348.531 344.689 346.226 350.785 356.302 362.306 368.767 375.694 382.992 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 437.801 405.351 376.754 358.645 347.519 343.331 344.548 348.819 354.066 359.817 366.045 372.755 379.850
SE Baseline 2.252.073 2.228.938 2.204.683 2.172.327 2.133.471 2.088.503 2.038.669 1.986.063 1.932.851 1.881.552 1.833.697 1.789.761 1.749.193 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.252.073 2.228.938 2.246.431 2.263.363 2.279.734 2.294.755 2.308.399 2.321.522 2.335.187 2.350.422 2.367.676 2.387.008 2.408.264 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.252.073 2.228.938 2.246.497 2.263.041 2.278.348 2.291.534 2.303.086 2.313.886 2.325.122 2.337.936 2.352.922 2.370.224 2.389.722 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.252.073 2.228.938 2.246.393 2.262.552 2.277.403 2.290.458 2.302.158 2.313.429 2.325.288 2.338.876 2.354.677 2.372.786 2.392.986
SI Baseline 294.433 297.906 300.966304.191 307.045 309.767 312.619 315.840 319.436 323.382 327.453 331.310 334.652 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 294.433 297.906 302.111 307.200 312.499 318.074 324.223 331.140 338.852 347.290 356.282 365.668 375.364 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 294.433 297.906 302.120 307.131 312.222 317.501 323.338 329.946 337.375 345.570 354.366 363.594 373.155 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 294.433 297.906 302.083 307.040 312.124 317.510 323.496 330.278 337.862 346.194 355.104 364.422 374.052
UK Baseline 11.648.190 11.602.825 11.561.457 11.512.042 11.454.646 11.389.135 11.315.930 11.234.763 11.139.553 11.030.318 10.906.726 10.768.490 10.616.025 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.648.190 11.602.825 11.710.864 11.847.530 12.002.471 12.167.218 12.343.089 12.528.916 12.720.584 12.916.551 13.114.799 13.313.005 13.509.346 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.648.190 11.602.825 11.710.905 11.841.288 11.982.433 12.129.193 12.287.333 12.455.750 12.630.544 12.810.326 12.993.319 13.177.393 13.360.859 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.648.190 11.602.825 11.708.959 11.837.723 11.980.232 12.132.778 12.297.566 12.473.489 12.655.912 12.843.487 13.034.156 13.225.592 13.415.920
stock PCGHM 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 705.549 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 705.549 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 705.549 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 705.549
EU15 Baseline 614.415 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 614.415 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 614.415 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 614.415
EU10 Baseline 91.134 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 91.134 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 91.134 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 91.134
AT Baseline 11.090 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.090 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.090 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.090
BE Baseline 16.507 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16.507 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16.507 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16.507
CZ Baseline 70 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 70 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 70 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 70
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 260.298 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 260.298 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 260.298 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 260.298
DK Baseline 11.382 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.382 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.382 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.382
ES Baseline 14.072 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.072 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.072 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.072
FI Baseline 14.916 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.916 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.916 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.916
FR Baseline 39.343 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 39.343 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 39.343 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 39.343
GR Baseline 2.899 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.899 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.899 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.899
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 1.317 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.317 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.317 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.317
IE Baseline 9.923 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.923 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.923 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.923
IT Baseline 39.389 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 39.389 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 39.389 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 39.389
LU Baseline 1.841 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.841 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.841 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.841
NL Baseline 23.307 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 23.307 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 23.307 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 23.307
PL Baseline 7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 441 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 441 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 441 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 441
SE Baseline 32.017 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 32.017 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 32.017 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 32.017
SI Baseline 712 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 712 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 712 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 712
UK Baseline 136.990 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 136.990 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 136.990 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 136.990
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 1.439.695 2.203.745 3.010.424 3.894.419 4.863.677 5.916.184 7.046.683 8.247.353 9.515.108 10.836.437 12.197.032 13.583.139 14.985.494 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.439.694 2.203.745 2.186.545 2.160.909 2.125.229 2.078.117 2.018.460 1.945.426 1.858.403 1.756.891 1.640.447 1.508.877 1.362.945 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.439.694 2.203.745 2.186.545 2.160.909 2.125.229 2.078.117 2.018.460 1.945.426 1.858.403 1.756.891 1.640.447 1.508.877 1.362.945 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.439.694 2.203.745 2.186.545 2.160.909 2.125.229 2.078.117 2.018.460 1.945.426 1.858.403 1.756.891 1.640.447 1.508.877 1.362.945
EU15 Baseline 1.251.191 1.910.655 2.603.667 3.361.545 4.193.202 5.098.129 6.073.218 7.113.107 8.216.167 9.370.983 10.565.123 11.786.687 13.027.478 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.251.191 1.910.655 1.894.269 1.869.848 1.835.886 1.791.124 1.734.641 1.665.906 1.584.775 1.491.461 1.386.499 1.270.799 1.145.902 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.251.191 1.910.655 1.894.269 1.869.848 1.835.886 1.791.124 1.734.641 1.665.906 1.584.775 1.491.461 1.386.499 1.270.799 1.145.902 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.251.191 1.910.655 1.894.269 1.869.848 1.835.886 1.791.124 1.734.641 1.665.906 1.584.775 1.491.461 1.386.499 1.270.799 1.145.902
EU10 Baseline 188.504 293.091 406.757 532.874 670.476 818.055 973.465 1.134.246 1.298.941 1.465.454 1.631.909 1.796.452 1.958.016 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 188.504 293.091 292.276 291.061 289.344 286.993 283.818 279.520 273.628 265.430 253.948 238.078 217.044 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 188.504 293.091 292.276 291.061 289.344 286.993 283.818 279.520 273.628 265.430 253.948 238.078 217.044 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 188.504 293.091 292.276 291.061 289.344 286.993 283.818 279.520 273.628 265.430 253.948 238.078 217.044
AT Baseline 23.017 35.720 49.175 62.884 77.339 92.262 107.387 122.511 137.495 152.219 166.601 180.580 194.117 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 23.017 35.720 35.658 35.546 35.355 35.045 34.567 33.861 32.856 31.480 29.667 27.370 24.582 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 23.017 35.720 35.658 35.546 35.355 35.045 34.567 33.861 32.856 31.480 29.667 27.370 24.582 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 23.017 35.720 35.658 35.546 35.355 35.045 34.567 33.861 32.856 31.480 29.667 27.370 24.582
BE Baseline 33.319 50.398 67.789 84.521 101.825 119.520 137.418 155.333 173.120 190.613 207.668 224.162 240.015 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 33.319 50.398 49.763 48.840 47.588 45.977 43.994 41.643 38.945 35.943 32.698 29.285 25.792 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 33.319 50.398 49.763 48.840 47.588 45.977 43.994 41.643 38.945 35.943 32.698 29.285 25.792 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 33.319 50.398 49.763 48.840 47.588 45.977 43.994 41.643 38.945 35.943 32.698 29.285 25.792
CZ Baseline 149 241 358 524 798 1.236 1.904 2.884 4.346 6.545 9.920 15.111 22.931 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 149 241 241 241 241 241 240 240 238 236 231 224 212 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 149 241 241 241 241 241 240 240 238 236 231 224 212 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 149 241 241 241 241 241 240 240 238 236 231 224 212
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 523.911 789.951 1.061.3401.342.157 1.640.594 1.955.552 2.285.481 2.628.995 2.986.525 3.356.406 3.736.777 4.125.632 4.520.972 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 523.911 789.951 782.497 771.617 756.776 737.544 713.632 684.915 651.458 613.531 571.609 526.366 478.649 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 523.911 789.951 782.497 771.617 756.776 737.544 713.632 684.915 651.458 613.531 571.609 526.366 478.649 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 523.911 789.951 782.497 771.617 756.776 737.544 713.632 684.915 651.458 613.531 571.609 526.366 478.649
DK Baseline 24.510 39.744 57.727 76.233 97.472 121.466 147.611 174.569 200.690 224.350 244.552 261.157 274.917 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 24.510 39.744 39.742 39.737 39.726 39.703 39.658 39.571 39.410 39.118 38.605 37.731 36.295 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 24.510 39.744 39.742 39.737 39.726 39.703 39.658 39.571 39.410 39.118 38.605 37.731 36.295 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 24.510 39.744 39.742 39.737 39.726 39.703 39.658 39.571 39.410 39.118 38.605 37.731 36.295
ES Baseline 29.437 46.235 64.934 88.955 118.002 152.752 193.853 241.886 297.732 361.803 434.370 515.507 605.071 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 29.437 46.235 46.131 45.961 45.703 45.334 44.825 44.150 43.279 42.189 40.857 39.267 37.411 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 29.437 46.235 46.131 45.961 45.703 45.334 44.825 44.150 43.279 42.189 40.857 39.267 37.411 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 29.437 46.235 46.131 45.961 45.703 45.334 44.825 44.150 43.279 42.189 40.857 39.267 37.411
FI Baseline 32.249 52.817 77.755 111.119 151.189 199.855 258.736 328.126 406.156 487.934 566.917 636.888 694.017 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 32.249 52.817 52.816 52.812 52.805 52.790 52.760 52.703 52.596 52.401 52.057 51.465 50.474 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 32.249 52.817 52.816 52.812 52.805 52.790 52.760 52.703 52.596 52.401 52.057 51.465 50.474 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 32.249 52.817 52.816 52.812 52.805 52.790 52.760 52.703 52.596 52.401 52.057 51.465 50.474
FR Baseline 80.416 123.041 167.571218.684 275.405 337.610 405.079 477.542 554.988 637.116 723.580 814.052 908.199 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 80.416 123.041 121.463 119.108 115.835 111.535 106.147 99.669 92.167 83.783 74.727 65.269 55.718 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 80.416 123.041 121.463 119.108 115.835 111.535 106.147 99.669 92.167 83.783 74.727 65.269 55.718 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 80.416 123.041 121.463 119.108 115.835 111.535 106.147 99.669 92.167 83.783 74.727 65.269 55.718
GR Baseline 6.227 9.960 14.16121.554 29.449 37.851 46.763 56.205 66.337 77.191 88.811 101.242 114.526 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.227 9.960 9.960 9.960 9.960 9.960 9.959 9.958 9.956 9.953 9.948 9.941 9.930 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.227 9.960 9.960 9.960 9.960 9.960 9.959 9.958 9.956 9.953 9.948 9.941 9.930 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.227 9.960 9.960 9.960 9.960 9.960 9.959 9.958 9.956 9.953 9.948 9.941 9.930
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 2.677 4.104 5.718 7.466 9.781 12.875 17.090 22.921 31.343 43.320 59.863 81.502 107.694 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.677 4.104 4.103 4.103 4.101 4.097 4.090 4.077 4.052 4.008 3.930 3.799 3.587 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.677 4.104 4.103 4.103 4.101 4.097 4.090 4.077 4.052 4.008 3.930 3.799 3.587 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.677 4.104 4.103 4.103 4.101 4.097 4.090 4.077 4.052 4.008 3.930 3.799 3.587
IE Baseline 20.337 31.199 42.560 55.994 70.259 85.245 100.821 116.851 133.279 149.975 166.806 183.662 200.447 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 20.337 31.199 30.907 30.481 29.899 29.143 28.203 27.074 25.757 24.263 22.611 20.827 18.944 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 20.337 31.199 30.907 30.481 29.899 29.143 28.203 27.074 25.757 24.263 22.611 20.827 18.944 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 20.337 31.199 30.907 30.481 29.899 29.143 28.203 27.074 25.757 24.263 22.611 20.827 18.944
IT Baseline 81.006 124.827 171.716222.686 280.893 346.503 419.495 499.744 587.446 682.085 783.120 889.772 1.001.271 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 81.006 124.827 124.155 123.142 121.712 119.797 117.333 114.270 110.573 106.223 101.228 95.616 89.443 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 81.006 124.827 124.155 123.142 121.712 119.797 117.333 114.270 110.573 106.223 101.228 95.616 89.443 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 81.006 124.827 124.155 123.142 121.712 119.797 117.333 114.270 110.573 106.223 101.228 95.616 89.443
LU Baseline 3.634 5.333 6.893 8.251 9.440 10.434 11.240 11.896 12.455 12.956 13.420 13.850 14.238 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.634 5.333 4.975 4.450 3.765 2.966 2.140 1.389 795 393 164 56 15 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.634 5.333 4.975 4.450 3.765 2.966 2.140 1.389 795 393 164 56 15 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.634 5.333 4.975 4.450 3.765 2.966 2.140 1.389 795 393 164 56 15
NL Baseline 48.011 74.588 103.680136.613 173.356 213.080 254.887 298.057 342.517 388.213 434.870 481.795 528.328 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 48.011 74.588 74.560 74.498 74.367 74.099 73.576 72.590 70.804 67.714 62.654 54.948 44.325 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 48.011 74.588 74.560 74.498 74.367 74.099 73.576 72.590 70.804 67.714 62.654 54.948 44.325 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 48.011 74.588 74.560 74.498 74.367 74.099 73.576 72.590 70.804 67.714 62.654 54.948 44.325
PL Baseline 16 28 45 77 144 276 534 1.028 2.024 4.033 7.988 15.427 28.352 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 27 27 26 25 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 27 27 26 25 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 27 27 26 25
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 934 1.482 2.107 3.128 4.456 6.147 8.255 10.814 13.867 17.412 21.461 26.083 31.388 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 934 1.482 1.481 1.481 1.481 1.479 1.477 1.472 1.464 1.448 1.420 1.374 1.299 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 934 1.482 1.481 1.481 1.481 1.479 1.477 1.472 1.464 1.448 1.420 1.374 1.299 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 934 1.482 1.481 1.481 1.481 1.479 1.477 1.472 1.464 1.448 1.420 1.374 1.299
SE Baseline 67.016 105.387 147.910194.268 245.160 300.354 359.174 420.486 483.157 545.655 606.817 665.891 722.705 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 67.016 105.387 105.382 105.371 105.348 105.299 105.202 105.016 104.670 104.042 102.938 101.050 97.929 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 67.016 105.387 105.382 105.371 105.348 105.299 105.202 105.016 104.670 104.042 102.938 101.050 97.929 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 67.016 105.387 105.382 105.371 105.348 105.299 105.202 105.016 104.670 104.042 102.938 101.050 97.929
SI Baseline 1.540 2.492 3.610 5.115 7.036 9.412 12.241 15.475 19.106 23.109 27.545 32.567 38.366 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.540 2.492 2.492 2.491 2.490 2.488 2.484 2.477 2.462 2.436 2.391 2.314 2.190 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.540 2.492 2.492 2.491 2.490 2.488 2.484 2.477 2.462 2.436 2.391 2.314 2.190 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.540 2.492 2.492 2.491 2.490 2.488 2.484 2.477 2.462 2.436 2.391 2.314 2.190
UK Baseline 277.165 419.971 568.347734.498 918.362 1.119.497 1.337.019 1.570.090 1.820.402 2.087.057 2.369.353 2.666.413 2.977.267 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 277.165 419.971 414.778 406.843 395.568 380.453 361.168 337.627 310.046 278.979 245.317 210.234 175.095 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 277.165 419.971 414.778 406.843 395.568 380.453 361.168 337.627 310.046 278.979 245.317 210.234 175.095 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 277.165 419.971 414.778 406.843 395.568 380.453 361.168 337.627 310.046 278.979 245.317 210.234 175.095
stock PCGB 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 9.886.000 9.964.996 10.042.317 10.174.886 10.322.257 10.507.084 10.457.161 10.396.297 10.327.000 10.260.475 10.044.723 9.840.309 9.663.443 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.886.000 9.964.996 10.042.317 10.174.886 10.322.257 10.507.084 10.457.161 10.396.297 10.327.000 10.260.475 10.044.723 9.840.309 9.663.443 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.886.000 9.964.996 10.042.317 10.174.886 10.322.257 10.507.084 10.457.161 10.396.297 10.327.000 10.260.475 10.044.723 9.840.309 9.663.443 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.886.000 9.964.996 10.042.317 10.174.886 10.322.257 10.507.084 10.457.161 10.396.297 10.327.000 10.260.475 10.044.723 9.840.309 9.663.443
EU15 Baseline 8.851.039 8.908.170 8.970.650 9.070.679 9.188.807 9.335.132 9.272.823 9.203.709 9.129.091 9.058.312 8.852.463 8.659.782 8.493.344 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.851.039 8.908.170 8.970.650 9.070.679 9.188.807 9.335.132 9.272.823 9.203.709 9.129.091 9.058.312 8.852.463 8.659.782 8.493.344 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.851.039 8.908.170 8.970.650 9.070.679 9.188.807 9.335.132 9.272.823 9.203.709 9.129.091 9.058.312 8.852.463 8.659.782 8.493.344 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.851.039 8.908.170 8.970.650 9.070.679 9.188.807 9.335.132 9.272.823 9.203.709 9.129.091 9.058.312 8.852.463 8.659.782 8.493.344
EU10 Baseline 1.034.961 1.056.826 1.071.668 1.104.206 1.133.450 1.171.952 1.184.338 1.192.588 1.197.910 1.202.163 1.192.260 1.180.527 1.170.099 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.034.961 1.056.826 1.071.668 1.104.206 1.133.450 1.171.952 1.184.338 1.192.588 1.197.910 1.202.163 1.192.260 1.180.527 1.170.099 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.034.961 1.056.826 1.071.668 1.104.206 1.133.450 1.171.952 1.184.338 1.192.588 1.197.910 1.202.163 1.192.260 1.180.527 1.170.099 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.034.961 1.056.826 1.071.668 1.104.206 1.133.450 1.171.952 1.184.338 1.192.588 1.197.910 1.202.163 1.192.260 1.180.527 1.170.099
AT Baseline 136.824 145.266 153.506 161.988 170.403 178.167 179.609 180.737 181.374 181.610 178.335 175.432 172.951 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 136.824 145.266 153.506 161.988 170.403 178.167 179.609 180.737 181.374 181.610 178.335 175.432 172.951 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 136.824 145.266 153.506 161.988 170.403 178.167 179.609 180.737 181.374 181.610 178.335 175.432 172.951 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 136.824 145.266 153.506 161.988 170.403 178.167 179.609 180.737 181.374 181.610 178.335 175.432 172.951
BE Baseline 164.599 163.381 155.317 159.530 158.192 163.261 164.118 161.558 157.139 151.762 150.500 149.817 149.655 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 164.599 163.381 155.317 159.530 158.192 163.261 164.118 161.558 157.139 151.762 150.500 149.817 149.655 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 164.599 163.381 155.317 159.530 158.192 163.261 164.118 161.558 157.139 151.762 150.500 149.817 149.655 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 164.599 163.381 155.317 159.530 158.192 163.261 164.118 161.558 157.139 151.762 150.500 149.817 149.655
CZ Baseline 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 76.675 69.841 64.690 60.666 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 76.675 69.841 64.690 60.666 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 76.675 69.841 64.690 60.666 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 97.275 76.675 69.841 64.690 60.666
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 4.307.924 4.268.596 4.225.895 4.183.154 4.137.990 4.083.077 4.034.271 3.980.621 3.922.322 3.865.995 3.747.436 3.649.860 3.562.839 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.307.924 4.268.596 4.225.895 4.183.154 4.137.990 4.083.077 4.034.271 3.980.621 3.922.322 3.865.995 3.747.436 3.649.860 3.562.839 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.307.924 4.268.596 4.225.895 4.183.154 4.137.990 4.083.077 4.034.271 3.980.621 3.922.322 3.865.995 3.747.436 3.649.860 3.562.839 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.307.924 4.268.596 4.225.895 4.183.154 4.137.990 4.083.077 4.034.271 3.980.621 3.922.322 3.865.995 3.747.436 3.649.860 3.562.839
DK Baseline 70.441 87.674 106.452126.780 148.621 171.732 176.926 182.026 187.071 192.280 193.898 194.734 195.897 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 70.441 87.674 106.452 126.780 148.621 171.732 176.926 182.026 187.071 192.280 193.898 194.734 195.897 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 70.441 87.674 106.452 126.780 148.621 171.732 176.926 182.026 187.071 192.280 193.898 194.734 195.897 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 70.441 87.674 106.452 126.780 148.621 171.732 176.926 182.026 187.071 192.280 193.898 194.734 195.897
ES Baseline 339.719 361.296 385.399413.457 445.101 481.050 487.797 494.272 500.900 507.356 510.624 507.745 505.651 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 339.719 361.296 385.399 413.457 445.101 481.050 487.797 494.272 500.900 507.356 510.624 507.745 505.651 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 339.719 361.296 385.399 413.457 445.101 481.050 487.797 494.272 500.900 507.356 510.624 507.745 505.651 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 339.719 361.296 385.399 413.457 445.101 481.050 487.797 494.272 500.900 507.356 510.624 507.745 505.651
FI Baseline 80.074 107.444 142.282186.097 240.228 308.322 315.362 322.554 329.808 337.262 339.833 340.311 340.982 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 80.074 107.444 142.282 186.097 240.228 308.322 315.362 322.554 329.808 337.262 339.833 340.311 340.982 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 80.074 107.444 142.282 186.097 240.228 308.322 315.362 322.554 329.808 337.262 339.833 340.311 340.982 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 80.074 107.444 142.282 186.097 240.228 308.322 315.362 322.554 329.808 337.262 339.833 340.311 340.982
FR Baseline 929.052 921.452 913.209907.904 905.008 902.408 886.019 869.151 851.838 834.321 807.285 779.380 755.595 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 929.052 921.452 913.209 907.904 905.008 902.408 886.019 869.151 851.838 834.321 807.285 779.380 755.595 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 929.052 921.452 913.209 907.904 905.008 902.408 886.019 869.151 851.838 834.321 807.285 779.380 755.595 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 929.052 921.452 913.209 907.904 905.008 902.408 886.019 869.151 851.838 834.321 807.285 779.380 755.595
GR Baseline 47.272 48.579 50.014 51.623 53.394 55.545 55.998 56.475 56.977 57.482 56.481 55.203 53.849 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 47.272 48.579 50.014 51.623 53.394 55.545 55.998 56.475 56.977 57.482 56.481 55.203 53.849 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 47.272 48.579 50.014 51.623 53.394 55.545 55.998 56.475 56.977 57.482 56.481 55.203 53.849 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 47.272 48.579 50.014 51.623 53.394 55.545 55.998 56.475 56.977 57.482 56.481 55.203 53.849
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 51.867 51.638 50.862 50.231 49.781 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 51.867 51.638 50.862 50.231 49.781 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 51.867 51.638 50.862 50.231 49.781 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 55.008 51.867 51.638 50.862 50.231 49.781
IE Baseline 15.312 20.241 26.413 33.929 43.426 55.338 59.305 63.637 67.861 72.215 74.129 75.090 76.066 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 15.312 20.241 26.413 33.929 43.426 55.338 59.305 63.637 67.861 72.215 74.129 75.090 76.066 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 15.312 20.241 26.413 33.929 43.426 55.338 59.305 63.637 67.861 72.215 74.129 75.090 76.066 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 15.312 20.241 26.413 33.929 43.426 55.338 59.305 63.637 67.861 72.215 74.129 75.090 76.066
IT Baseline 206.203 233.487 263.051294.920 328.503 370.317 371.710 372.526 372.795 372.198 367.226 364.293 361.933 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 206.203 233.487 263.051 294.920 328.503 370.317 371.710 372.526 372.795 372.198 367.226 364.293 361.933 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 206.203 233.487 263.051 294.920 328.503 370.317 371.710 372.526 372.795 372.198 367.226 364.293 361.933 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 206.203 233.487 263.051 294.920 328.503 370.317 371.710 372.526 372.795 372.198 367.226 364.293 361.933
LU Baseline 22.588 22.707 23.210 24.112 25.523 27.376 27.569 27.784 28.021 28.241 27.282 26.426 25.770 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 22.588 22.707 23.210 24.112 25.523 27.376 27.569 27.784 28.021 28.241 27.282 26.426 25.770 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 22.588 22.707 23.210 24.112 25.523 27.376 27.569 27.784 28.021 28.241 27.282 26.426 25.770 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 22.588 22.707 23.210 24.112 25.523 27.376 27.569 27.784 28.021 28.241 27.282 26.426 25.770
NL Baseline 185.924 196.713 207.478219.029 231.271 243.265 248.567 253.390 257.358 260.957 259.802 258.977 258.197 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 185.924 196.713 207.478 219.029 231.271 243.265 248.567 253.390 257.358 260.957 259.802 258.977 258.197 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 185.924 196.713 207.478 219.029 231.271 243.265 248.567 253.390 257.358 260.957 259.802 258.977 258.197 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 185.924 196.713 207.478 219.029 231.271 243.265 248.567 253.390 257.358 260.957 259.802 258.977 258.197
PL Baseline 321.000 321.000 321.000321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 254.790 239.645 230.645 222.738 216.815 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 254.790 239.645 230.645 222.738 216.815 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 254.790 239.645 230.645 222.738 216.815 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 321.000 254.790 239.645 230.645 222.738 216.815
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 108.574 103.532 98.39593.154 87.786 82.242 76.424 70.305 63.826 56.967 49.725 42.147 34.368 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 108.574 103.532 98.395 93.154 87.786 82.242 76.424 70.305 63.826 56.967 49.725 42.147 34.368 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 108.574 103.532 98.395 93.154 87.786 82.242 76.424 70.305 63.826 56.967 49.725 42.147 34.368 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 108.574 103.532 98.395 93.154 87.786 82.242 76.424 70.305 63.826 56.967 49.725 42.147 34.368
SE Baseline 450.873 457.924 465.958475.268 486.572 498.929 502.474 506.499 510.812 515.572 510.870 504.035 497.780 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 450.873 457.924 465.958 475.268 486.572 498.929 502.474 506.499 510.812 515.572 510.870 504.035 497.780 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 450.873 457.924 465.958 475.268 486.572 498.929 502.474 506.499 510.812 515.572 510.870 504.035 497.780 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 450.873 457.924 465.958 475.268 486.572 498.929 502.474 506.499 510.812 515.572 510.870 504.035 497.780
SI Baseline 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.772 19.499 20.217 20.907 21.409 21.984 22.557 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.772 19.499 20.217 20.907 21.409 21.984 22.557 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.772 19.499 20.217 20.907 21.409 21.984 22.557 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.214 18.772 19.499 20.217 20.907 21.409 21.984 22.557
UK Baseline 1.785.660 1.769.878 1.754.070 1.739.735 1.726.788 1.714.104 1.686.675 1.662.174 1.640.989 1.624.094 1.579.036 1.536.332 1.501.811 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.785.660 1.769.878 1.754.070 1.739.735 1.726.788 1.714.104 1.686.675 1.662.174 1.640.989 1.624.094 1.579.036 1.536.332 1.501.811 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.785.660 1.769.878 1.754.070 1.739.735 1.726.788 1.714.104 1.686.675 1.662.174 1.640.989 1.624.094 1.579.036 1.536.332 1.501.811 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.785.660 1.769.878 1.754.070 1.739.735 1.726.788 1.714.104 1.686.675 1.662.174 1.640.989 1.624.094 1.579.036 1.536.332 1.501.811
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 9.517.575 9.405.579 9.324.876 9.250.835 9.199.372 9.170.672 9.164.921 9.181.535 9.214.226 9.263.205 9.329.008 9.411.742 9.510.863 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.517.575 9.405.579 9.578.201 9.812.822 10.112.695 10.465.266 10.870.046 11.324.441 11.821.107 12.356.531 12.927.175 13.529.856 14.162.920 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.517.575 9.405.579 9.575.685 9.798.375 10.073.182 10.396.208 10.770.358 11.193.254 11.658.045 12.161.490 12.700.463 13.272.146 13.875.169 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.517.575 9.405.579 9.573.030 9.794.410 10.072.743 10.402.800 10.785.357 11.218.118 11.693.418 12.208.036 12.758.552 13.341.886 13.956.299
EU15 Baseline 8.356.608 8.252.119 8.177.363 8.111.380 8.067.013 8.043.668 8.040.944 8.058.072 8.089.424 8.135.199 8.195.764 8.271.037 8.360.503 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.356.607 8.252.119 8.393.157 8.590.276 8.845.365 9.147.141 9.495.364 9.887.950 10.318.590 10.784.155 11.281.170 11.806.310 12.357.688 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.356.607 8.252.119 8.390.651 8.576.485 8.808.146 9.082.559 9.402.469 9.765.963 10.167.152 10.603.146 11.070.839 11.567.252 12.090.768 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.356.607 8.252.119 8.388.411 8.573.613 8.809.488 9.091.361 9.419.931 9.793.346 10.205.008 10.652.044 11.131.103 11.638.972 12.173.723
EU10 Baseline 1.160.968 1.153.459 1.147.513 1.139.455 1.132.359 1.127.004 1.123.977 1.123.463 1.124.802 1.128.006 1.133.243 1.140.705 1.150.360 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.160.968 1.153.459 1.185.044 1.222.546 1.267.330 1.318.125 1.374.682 1.436.490 1.502.516 1.572.376 1.646.005 1.723.546 1.805.232 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.160.968 1.153.459 1.185.034 1.221.890 1.265.037 1.313.648 1.367.889 1.427.291 1.490.893 1.558.345 1.629.624 1.704.894 1.784.401 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.160.968 1.153.459 1.184.619 1.220.797 1.263.255 1.311.439 1.365.426 1.424.772 1.488.410 1.555.992 1.627.449 1.702.914 1.782.576
AT Baseline 171.024 169.704 168.865 167.455 166.210 165.124 164.288 163.843 163.831 164.382 165.571 167.407 169.858 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 171.024 169.704 174.771 180.504 187.353 194.721 202.664 211.264 220.553 230.668 241.719 253.749 266.781 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 171.024 169.704 174.726 180.201 186.506 193.213 200.481 208.404 217.022 226.479 236.886 248.286 260.699 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 171.024 169.704 174.665 180.136 186.577 193.545 201.101 209.334 218.269 228.045 238.768 250.479 263.198
BE Baseline 149.956 150.875 152.288 153.096 154.214 155.619 157.302 159.242 161.288 163.436 165.681 168.019 170.459 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 149.956 150.874 159.098 167.741 177.620 188.154 199.276 210.915 222.874 235.130 247.669 260.487 273.602 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 149.956 150.874 159.099 167.617 177.191 187.346 198.077 209.323 220.902 232.792 244.981 257.462 270.253 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 149.956 150.874 158.983 167.334 176.740 186.777 197.411 208.585 220.110 231.961 244.123 256.580 269.341
CZ Baseline 57.528 55.107 53.218 51.258 49.636 48.374 47.508 47.091 47.058 47.436 48.233 49.428 50.943 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 57.528 55.107 53.404 51.740 50.564 49.793 49.472 49.660 50.332 51.564 53.442 56.039 59.371 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 57.528 55.107 53.413 51.722 50.458 49.585 49.156 49.231 49.792 50.916 52.687 55.176 58.396 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 57.528 55.107 53.347 51.573 50.219 49.269 48.770 48.785 49.284 50.340 52.032 54.426 57.534
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 3.488.038 3.426.600 3.377.732 3.329.442 3.291.856 3.265.067 3.249.241 3.244.255 3.248.178 3.260.562 3.280.940 3.308.684 3.343.242 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.488.038 3.426.600 3.466.315 3.522.604 3.601.358 3.698.285 3.813.717 3.947.438 4.098.017 4.264.922 4.447.442 4.644.772 4.856.272 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.488.038 3.426.600 3.465.403 3.517.407 3.587.374 3.673.810 3.778.455 3.901.142 4.040.572 4.196.235 4.367.510 4.553.680 4.754.179 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.488.038 3.426.600 3.464.661 3.516.588 3.588.363 3.678.154 3.786.658 3.913.706 4.057.707 4.218.178 4.394.421 4.585.633 4.791.135
DK Baseline 197.406 199.218 201.206201.077 199.772 197.168 193.479 189.265 185.162 181.741 179.308 177.942 177.542 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 197.406 199.218 208.531 216.621 225.160 234.026 243.149 252.491 261.876 271.046 279.766 288.048 296.278 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 197.406 199.218 208.548 216.621 225.088 233.804 242.739 251.854 260.991 269.915 278.416 286.523 294.625 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 197.406 199.218 208.516 216.511 224.852 233.430 242.233 251.245 260.303 269.186 277.675 285.791 293.905
ES Baseline 504.478 504.380 505.336508.257 512.036 516.711 522.318 528.871 535.919 543.428 551.328 559.561 568.092 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 504.478 504.380 510.187 520.048 532.392 546.847 563.623 582.830 604.181 627.712 653.392 681.164 710.969 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 504.478 504.380 510.018 519.158 529.972 542.692 557.619 574.871 594.178 615.595 639.109 664.683 692.279 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 504.478 504.380 509.888 519.042 530.238 543.498 559.043 576.998 597.061 619.276 643.620 670.045 698.502
FI Baseline 341.790 342.688 343.622345.287 346.078 345.518 343.281 339.375 334.063 328.232 323.050 319.606 318.602 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 341.790 342.688 351.364 364.384 379.516 396.816 416.633 439.257 464.402 491.212 518.335 544.315 568.165 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 341.790 342.688 351.379 364.394 379.433 396.524 416.011 438.150 462.655 488.701 515.003 540.200 563.388 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 341.790 342.688 351.333 364.219 379.046 395.912 415.194 437.189 461.612 487.665 514.063 539.415 562.771
FR Baseline 736.295 721.707 711.460705.632 703.461 704.729 709.240 716.683 726.066 737.060 749.356 762.651 776.685 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 736.295 721.707 726.563 740.742 761.859 788.420 820.294 857.101 897.861 942.197 989.714 1.040.035 1.092.854 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 736.295 721.707 726.004 738.280 755.715 778.356 806.230 839.005 875.759 916.153 959.829 1.006.440 1.055.707 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 736.295 721.707 725.768 738.205 756.657 780.565 809.822 844.078 882.351 924.270 969.456 1.017.540 1.068.222
GR Baseline 52.433 50.969 49.455 48.023 46.531 44.987 43.400 41.776 40.099 38.377 36.617 34.827 33.019 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 52.433 50.969 50.157 49.970 49.824 49.712 49.640 49.618 49.655 49.767 49.972 50.287 50.737 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 52.433 50.969 50.156 49.965 49.811 49.694 49.617 49.593 49.627 49.736 49.938 50.251 50.697 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 52.433 50.969 50.155 49.959 49.797 49.665 49.574 49.533 49.551 49.645 49.829 50.124 50.553
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 49.501 49.388 49.395 48.828 48.301 47.917 47.771 47.898 48.153 48.445 48.678 48.803 48.809 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 49.501 49.388 50.046 50.201 50.568 51.214 52.299 53.937 56.125 58.876 62.182 65.987 70.124 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 49.501 49.388 50.062 50.211 50.547 51.151 52.195 53.789 55.932 58.636 61.892 65.647 69.731 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 49.501 49.388 50.013 50.099 50.364 50.907 51.889 53.420 55.486 58.103 61.260 64.906 68.879
IE Baseline 77.089 78.176 79.309 80.973 82.686 84.469 86.350 88.357 90.454 92.660 94.999 97.487 100.142 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 77.089 78.176 82.529 88.447 94.903 101.761 109.053 116.788 124.928 133.472 142.420 151.768 161.527 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 77.089 78.176 82.510 88.327 94.561 101.151 108.168 115.618 123.467 131.714 140.364 149.416 158.880 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 77.089 78.176 82.497 88.324 94.632 101.345 108.499 116.100 124.106 132.517 141.335 150.556 160.189
IT Baseline 360.282 359.457 359.266357.977 357.132 356.779 356.985 357.783 358.821 360.112 361.666 363.480 365.582 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 360.282 359.457 367.751 376.951 388.510 401.984 417.488 435.053 454.368 475.406 498.128 522.432 548.290 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 360.282 359.457 367.406 375.569 385.134 396.455 409.697 424.914 441.830 460.440 480.730 502.622 526.103 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 360.282 359.457 367.266 375.496 385.596 397.568 411.544 427.578 445.353 464.852 486.045 508.846 533.227
LU Baseline 25.372 25.274 25.477 25.655 26.025 26.534 27.131 27.775 28.422 29.068 29.711 30.351 30.989 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 25.372 25.274 27.133 29.271 31.734 34.306 36.900 39.415 41.773 43.973 46.051 48.061 50.058 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 25.372 25.274 27.102 29.122 31.363 33.686 36.043 38.339 40.508 42.551 44.504 46.417 48.337 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 25.372 25.274 27.101 29.163 31.518 33.992 36.498 38.936 41.232 43.384 45.425 47.406 49.380
NL Baseline 257.334 256.283 254.945252.761 250.657 249.030 248.205 248.403 249.577 251.758 254.902 258.829 263.198 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 257.334 256.283 263.205 271.479 281.555 293.074 306.085 320.669 336.883 354.974 375.098 397.158 420.804 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 257.334 256.283 263.181 271.196 280.652 291.433 303.712 317.594 333.141 350.587 370.069 391.474 414.447 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 257.334 256.283 263.023 270.809 280.060 290.708 302.889 316.700 332.179 349.558 368.973 390.317 413.230
PL Baseline 212.607 209.884 208.290206.161 205.211 205.854 208.455 213.249 220.167 229.548 241.709 256.398 272.499 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 212.607 209.884 208.777 207.492 207.786 209.669 213.586 219.837 228.573 240.342 255.738 274.826 296.710 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 212.607 209.884 208.753 207.237 206.964 208.206 211.438 216.960 224.924 235.863 250.352 268.456 289.309 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 212.607 209.884 208.524 206.758 206.299 207.434 210.592 216.067 223.961 234.802 249.168 267.130 287.825
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 26.615 19.222 12.635 7.347 3.706 1.720 966 817 838 883 934 990 1.050 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 26.615 19.222 12.641 7.364 3.737 1.768 1.033 909 958 1.035 1.123 1.221 1.331 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 26.615 19.222 12.638 7.354 3.711 1.726 973 829 858 916 983 1.060 1.148 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 26.615 19.222 12.639 7.357 3.721 1.744 1.000 866 905 972 1.050 1.138 1.236
SE Baseline 492.271 487.711 484.272480.473 477.132 474.508 472.755 471.819 471.374 471.394 472.059 473.703 476.619 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 492.271 487.711 499.277 513.298 530.212 549.922 572.238 596.721 622.651 649.477 676.986 705.376 735.147 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 492.271 487.711 499.291 513.172 529.676 548.719 570.263 593.870 618.863 644.727 671.305 698.826 727.811 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 492.271 487.711 499.228 512.952 529.273 548.230 569.775 593.494 618.656 644.750 671.583 699.369 728.588
SI Baseline 23.159 23.853 24.705 25.793 27.046 28.426 29.871 31.308 32.645 33.851 34.939 35.951 36.932 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 23.159 23.853 25.040 26.611 28.472 30.550 32.782 35.078 37.343 39.536 41.684 43.867 46.173 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 23.159 23.853 25.037 26.586 28.394 30.405 32.568 34.795 36.994 39.127 41.222 43.357 45.617 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 23.159 23.853 25.029 26.569 28.379 30.408 32.594 34.848 37.073 39.230 41.345 43.496 45.769
UK Baseline 1.476.225 1.459.855 1.451.496 1.447.924 1.449.517 1.455.705 1.466.004 1.479.806 1.495.332 1.512.108 1.529.642 1.547.499 1.565.423 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.476.225 1.459.855 1.493.635 1.540.852 1.599.632 1.667.344 1.743.571 1.827.482 1.917.610 2.013.164 2.113.356 2.217.436 2.324.872 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.476.225 1.459.855 1.493.188 1.538.102 1.591.958 1.653.950 1.724.384 1.802.458 1.886.778 1.976.604 2.071.213 2.169.913 2.272.214 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.476.225 1.459.855 1.492.691 1.537.518 1.592.418 1.656.228 1.728.689 1.809.002 1.895.613 1.987.785 2.084.737 2.185.734 2.290.246
stock PCGHB 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 211.074 424.668 648.896 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 211.074 424.668 648.896 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 211.074 424.668 648.896 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 211.074 424.668 648.896
EU15 Baseline 180.109 364.358 557.222 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 180.109 364.358 557.222 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 180.109 364.358 557.222 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 180.109 364.358 557.222
EU10 Baseline 30.965 60.310 91.675 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 30.965 60.310 91.675 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 30.965 60.310 91.675 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 30.965 60.310 91.675
AT Baseline 4.303 9.121 14.436 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.303 9.121 14.436 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.303 9.121 14.436 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.303 9.121 14.436
BE Baseline 6.437 13.138 19.987 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.437 13.138 19.987 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.437 13.138 19.987 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.437 13.138 19.987
CZ Baseline 55 111 168 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 55 111 168 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 55 111 168 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 55 111 168
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 74.028 155.809 239.952 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 74.028 155.809 239.952 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 74.028 155.809 239.952 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 74.028 155.809 239.952
DK Baseline 4.113 7.940 12.408 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.113 7.940 12.408 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.113 7.940 12.408 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.113 7.940 12.408
ES Baseline 4.599 8.238 12.216 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.599 8.238 12.216 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.599 8.238 12.216 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.599 8.238 12.216
FI Baseline 5.577 9.584 14.180 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.577 9.584 14.180 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.577 9.584 14.180 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.577 9.584 14.180
FR Baseline 13.487 26.490 40.234 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.487 26.490 40.234 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.487 26.490 40.234 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.487 26.490 40.234
GR Baseline 1.609 2.010 2.489 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.609 2.010 2.489 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.609 2.010 2.489 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.609 2.010 2.489
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 644 1.225 1.794 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 644 1.225 1.794 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 644 1.225 1.794 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 644 1.225 1.794
IE Baseline 3.014 5.588 8.344 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.014 5.588 8.344 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.014 5.588 8.344 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.014 5.588 8.344
IT Baseline 6.388 14.228 22.655 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.388 14.228 22.655 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.388 14.228 22.655 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.388 14.228 22.655
LU Baseline 1.479 2.979 4.468 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.479 2.979 4.468 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.479 2.979 4.468 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.479 2.979 4.468
NL Baseline 6.687 13.712 21.128 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.687 13.712 21.128 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.687 13.712 21.128 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.687 13.712 21.128
PL Baseline 21 43 68 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 21 43 68 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 21 43 68 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 21 43 68
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 4 7 11 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4 7 11 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4 7 11 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4 7 11
SE Baseline 10.659 20.594 31.569 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.659 20.594 31.569 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.659 20.594 31.569 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.659 20.594 31.569
SI Baseline 157 354 583 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 157 354 583 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 157 354 583 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 157 354 583
UK Baseline 37.726 74.919 113.143 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 37.726 74.919 113.143 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 37.726 74.919 113.143 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 37.726 74.919 113.143
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 885.014 1.134.014 1.399.594 1.683.384 1.992.341 2.326.371 2.684.531 3.064.958 3.466.273 3.884.666 4.316.383 4.758.730 5.211.715 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 885.014 1.134.014 1.119.378 1.099.726 1.074.491 1.043.232 1.005.608 961.332 910.130 851.761 786.204 714.016 636.633 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 885.014 1.134.014 1.119.378 1.099.726 1.074.491 1.043.232 1.005.608 961.332 910.130 851.761 786.204 714.016 636.633 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 885.014 1.134.014 1.119.378 1.099.726 1.074.491 1.043.232 1.005.608 961.332 910.130 851.761 786.204 714.016 636.633
EU15 Baseline 759.500 971.617 1.196.598 1.436.474 1.697.386 1.979.640 2.282.946 2.606.296 2.949.018 3.308.158 3.680.616 4.064.006 4.457.958 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 759.500 971.617 958.177 939.960 916.431 887.224 852.145 811.155 764.347 711.946 654.384 592.434 527.326 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 759.500 971.617 958.177 939.960 916.431 887.224 852.145 811.155 764.347 711.946 654.384 592.434 527.326 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 759.500 971.617 958.177 939.960 916.431 887.224 852.145 811.155 764.347 711.946 654.384 592.434 527.326
EU10 Baseline 125.514 162.397 202.997 246.910 294.955 346.731 401.585 458.662 517.255 576.508 635.767 694.724 753.757 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 125.514 162.397 161.201 159.766 158.060 156.008 153.463 150.177 145.783 139.815 131.820 121.582 109.308 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 125.514 162.397 161.201 159.766 158.060 156.008 153.463 150.177 145.783 139.815 131.820 121.582 109.308 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 125.514 162.397 161.201 159.766 158.060 156.008 153.463 150.177 145.783 139.815 131.820 121.582 109.308
AT Baseline 20.288 26.666 33.567 40.592 48.062 55.843 63.805 71.846 79.903 87.940 95.958 103.996 112.134 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 20.288 26.666 26.575 26.424 26.184 25.819 25.285 24.536 23.519 22.192 20.525 18.516 16.203 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 20.288 26.666 26.575 26.424 26.184 25.819 25.285 24.536 23.519 22.192 20.525 18.516 16.203 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 20.288 26.666 26.575 26.424 26.184 25.819 25.285 24.536 23.519 22.192 20.525 18.516 16.203
BE Baseline 26.895 33.959 41.209 48.052 55.176 62.562 70.195 78.065 86.171 94.510 103.082 111.889 120.945 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 26.895 33.959 33.028 31.953 30.756 29.459 28.083 26.646 25.169 23.668 22.159 20.658 19.176 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 26.895 33.959 33.028 31.953 30.756 29.459 28.083 26.646 25.169 23.668 22.159 20.658 19.176 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 26.895 33.959 33.028 31.953 30.756 29.459 28.083 26.646 25.169 23.668 22.159 20.658 19.176
CZ Baseline 229 296 376 475 616 813 1.076 1.418 1.867 2.463 3.275 4.392 5.903 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 229 296 296 296 296 295 294 292 288 282 271 255 231 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 229 296 296 296 296 295 294 292 288 282 271 255 231 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 229 296 296 296 296 295 294 292 288 282 271 255 231
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 326.477 415.135 506.706599.967 698.978 803.687 914.011 1.030.004 1.152.214 1.280.807 1.415.997 1.558.030 1.707.227 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 326.477 415.135 409.342 401.505 391.400 378.875 363.863 346.396 326.607 304.736 281.125 256.201 230.465 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 326.477 415.135 409.342 401.505 391.400 378.875 363.863 346.396 326.607 304.736 281.125 256.201 230.465 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 326.477 415.135 409.342 401.505 391.400 378.875 363.863 346.396 326.607 304.736 281.125 256.201 230.465
DK Baseline 17.711 24.048 31.737 39.767 49.180 60.055 72.188 85.003 97.705 109.457 119.667 128.152 135.235 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 17.711 24.048 24.044 24.036 24.019 23.987 23.925 23.812 23.612 23.267 22.693 21.773 20.370 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 17.711 24.048 24.044 24.036 24.019 23.987 23.925 23.812 23.612 23.267 22.693 21.773 20.370 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 17.711 24.048 24.044 24.036 24.019 23.987 23.925 23.812 23.612 23.267 22.693 21.773 20.370
ES Baseline 16.570 21.344 26.655 33.203 40.879 49.801 60.080 71.813 85.139 100.119 116.789 135.158 155.207 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16.570 21.344 21.258 21.130 20.949 20.704 20.381 19.969 19.456 18.834 18.094 17.234 16.257 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16.570 21.344 21.258 21.130 20.949 20.704 20.381 19.969 19.456 18.834 18.094 17.234 16.257 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16.570 21.344 21.258 21.130 20.949 20.704 20.381 19.969 19.456 18.834 18.094 17.234 16.257
FI Baseline 19.661 26.339 34.634 45.853 59.580 76.587 97.602 122.923 152.028 183.229 214.062 241.992 265.256 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 19.661 26.339 26.336 26.331 26.321 26.302 26.265 26.198 26.078 25.871 25.521 24.950 24.047 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 19.661 26.339 26.336 26.331 26.321 26.302 26.265 26.198 26.078 25.871 25.521 24.950 24.047 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 19.661 26.339 26.336 26.331 26.321 26.302 26.265 26.198 26.078 25.871 25.521 24.950 24.047
FR Baseline 54.688 69.793 85.651 103.308 122.589 143.475 165.950 190.013 215.747 243.205 272.466 303.639 336.858 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 54.688 69.793 68.411 66.516 64.051 60.984 57.315 53.080 48.359 43.264 37.942 32.561 27.294 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 54.688 69.793 68.411 66.516 64.051 60.984 57.315 53.080 48.359 43.264 37.942 32.561 27.294 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 54.688 69.793 68.411 66.516 64.051 60.984 57.315 53.080 48.359 43.264 37.942 32.561 27.294
GR Baseline 3.045 3.677 4.393 5.645 6.977 8.390 9.886 11.471 13.171 14.992 16.946 19.042 21.291 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.045 3.677 3.677 3.677 3.676 3.676 3.675 3.674 3.673 3.670 3.666 3.661 3.653 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.045 3.677 3.677 3.677 3.676 3.676 3.675 3.674 3.673 3.670 3.666 3.661 3.653 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.045 3.677 3.677 3.677 3.676 3.676 3.675 3.674 3.673 3.670 3.666 3.661 3.653
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 2.365 2.948 3.579 4.184 4.900 5.757 6.810 8.130 9.839 12.034 14.786 18.081 21.746 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.365 2.948 2.947 2.946 2.942 2.935 2.923 2.900 2.860 2.792 2.681 2.508 2.257 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.365 2.948 2.947 2.946 2.942 2.935 2.923 2.900 2.860 2.792 2.681 2.508 2.257 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.365 2.948 2.947 2.946 2.942 2.935 2.923 2.900 2.860 2.792 2.681 2.508 2.257
IE Baseline 11.293 14.428 17.767 21.728 25.985 30.522 35.321 40.365 45.655 51.181 56.932 62.909 69.116 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.293 14.428 14.224 13.948 13.593 13.154 12.629 12.018 11.327 10.565 9.743 8.875 7.981 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.293 14.428 14.224 13.948 13.593 13.154 12.629 12.018 11.327 10.565 9.743 8.875 7.981 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.293 14.428 14.224 13.948 13.593 13.154 12.629 12.018 11.327 10.565 9.743 8.875 7.981
IT Baseline 31.693 41.349 51.785 62.775 75.134 88.890 104.042 120.580 138.522 157.802 178.365 200.126 223.018 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 31.693 41.349 41.015 40.548 39.924 39.122 38.126 36.925 35.511 33.886 32.059 30.046 27.874 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 31.693 41.349 41.015 40.548 39.924 39.122 38.126 36.925 35.511 33.886 32.059 30.046 27.874 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 31.693 41.349 41.015 40.548 39.924 39.122 38.126 36.925 35.511 33.886 32.059 30.046 27.874
LU Baseline 5.897 7.220 8.414 9.410 10.333 11.219 12.116 13.062 14.083 15.187 16.372 17.630 18.958 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.897 7.220 6.476 5.533 4.453 3.336 2.296 1.432 795 385 159 54 15 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.897 7.220 6.476 5.533 4.453 3.336 2.296 1.432 795 385 159 54 15 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.897 7.220 6.476 5.533 4.453 3.336 2.296 1.432 795 385 159 54 15
NL Baseline 29.118 37.857 47.541 58.288 70.157 82.850 96.031 109.387 122.764 136.069 149.277 162.502 176.168 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 29.118 37.857 37.815 37.731 37.563 37.243 36.656 35.624 33.901 31.202 27.316 22.297 16.611 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 29.118 37.857 37.815 37.731 37.563 37.243 36.656 35.624 33.901 31.202 27.316 22.297 16.611 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 29.118 37.857 37.815 37.731 37.563 37.243 36.656 35.624 33.901 31.202 27.316 22.297 16.611
PL Baseline 98 133 179 247 359 541 830 1.287 2.043 3.304 5.368 8.615 13.352 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 98 133 133 133 133 133 132 132 130 127 123 116 106 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 98 133 133 133 133 133 132 132 130 127 123 116 106 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 98 133 133 133 133 133 132 132 130 127 123 116 106
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 16 21 28 38 52 69 90 116 147 182 222 268 321 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 19 17 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 19 17 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 19 17
SE Baseline 43.862 57.673 73.314 90.481 109.554 130.517 153.187 177.179 202.043 227.165 252.025 276.241 299.677 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 43.862 57.673 57.665 57.648 57.614 57.549 57.426 57.200 56.800 56.108 54.950 53.081 50.192 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 43.862 57.673 57.665 57.648 57.614 57.549 57.426 57.200 56.800 56.108 54.950 53.081 50.192 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 43.862 57.673 57.665 57.648 57.614 57.549 57.426 57.200 56.800 56.108 54.950 53.081 50.192
SI Baseline 846 1.144 1.489 1.928 2.462 3.094 3.815 4.609 5.465 6.372 7.342 8.402 9.590 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 846 1.144 1.144 1.143 1.142 1.140 1.136 1.129 1.116 1.094 1.058 1.000 915 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 846 1.144 1.144 1.143 1.142 1.140 1.136 1.129 1.116 1.094 1.058 1.000 915 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 846 1.144 1.144 1.143 1.142 1.140 1.136 1.129 1.116 1.094 1.058 1.000 915
UK Baseline 152.284 192.108 233.197277.367 324.752 375.173 428.441 484.469 543.728 606.313 672.457 742.431 816.547 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 152.284 192.108 188.289 182.960 175.906 166.994 156.198 143.623 129.519 114.278 98.412 82.508 67.172 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 152.284 192.108 188.289 182.960 175.906 166.994 156.198 143.623 129.519 114.278 98.412 82.508 67.172 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 152.284 192.108 188.289 182.960 175.906 166.994 156.198 143.623 129.519 114.278 98.412 82.508 67.172
stock PCDS 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 559.462 1.145.149 1.763.887 2.463.007 3.120.498 3.755.667 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 559.462 1.145.149 1.763.887 2.463.007 3.120.498 3.755.667 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 559.462 1.145.149 1.763.887 2.463.007 3.120.498 3.755.667 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 559.462 1.145.149 1.763.887 2.463.007 3.120.498 3.755.667
EU15 Baseline 531.002 1.086.967 1.674.902 2.311.584 2.915.566 3.501.329 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 531.002 1.086.967 1.674.902 2.311.584 2.915.566 3.501.329 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 531.002 1.086.967 1.674.902 2.311.584 2.915.566 3.501.329 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 531.002 1.086.967 1.674.902 2.311.584 2.915.566 3.501.329
EU10 Baseline 28.460 58.182 88.985 151.423 204.932 254.338 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 28.460 58.182 88.985 151.423 204.932 254.338 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 28.460 58.182 88.985 151.423 204.932 254.338 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 28.460 58.182 88.985 151.423 204.932 254.338
AT Baseline 9.220 18.659 28.745 39.246 49.700 59.767 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.220 18.659 28.745 39.246 49.700 59.767 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.220 18.659 28.745 39.246 49.700 59.767 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.220 18.659 28.745 39.246 49.700 59.767
BE Baseline 25.125 43.761 59.915 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 25.125 43.761 59.915 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 25.125 43.761 59.915 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 25.125 43.761 59.915
CZ Baseline 80.519 107.362 129.854 150.560 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 80.519 107.362 129.854 150.560 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 80.519 107.362 129.854 150.560 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 80.519 107.362 129.854 150.560
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 106.067 217.220 334.204 456.619 585.232 711.209 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 106.067 217.220 334.204 456.619 585.232 711.209 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 106.067 217.220 334.204 456.619 585.232 711.209 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 106.067 217.220 334.204 456.619 585.232 711.209
DK Baseline 4.096 8.161 12.500 17.199 21.665 26.434 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.096 8.161 12.500 17.199 21.665 26.434 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.096 8.161 12.500 17.199 21.665 26.434 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.096 8.161 12.500 17.199 21.665 26.434
ES Baseline 52.180 107.326 166.967 229.595 279.360 328.520 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 52.180 107.326 166.967 229.595 279.360 328.520 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 52.180 107.326 166.967 229.595 279.360 328.520 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 52.180 107.326 166.967 229.595 279.360 328.520
FI Baseline 4.890 9.715 14.693 19.849 24.288 28.877 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.890 9.715 14.693 19.849 24.288 28.877 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.890 9.715 14.693 19.849 24.288 28.877 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.890 9.715 14.693 19.849 24.288 28.877
FR Baseline 86.720 176.182 270.543 368.166 453.987 536.183 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 86.720 176.182 270.543 368.166 453.987 536.183 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 86.720 176.182 270.543 368.166 453.987 536.183 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 86.720 176.182 270.543 368.166 453.987 536.183
GR Baseline Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d)
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 69.949 96.534 118.244 135.951 151.717 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 69.949 96.534 118.244 135.951 151.717 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 69.949 96.534 118.244 135.951 151.717 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 69.949 96.534 118.244 135.951 151.717
IE Baseline 5.751 11.702 18.079 24.876 30.407 35.902 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.751 11.702 18.079 24.876 30.407 35.902 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.751 11.702 18.079 24.876 30.407 35.902 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.751 11.702 18.079 24.876 30.407 35.902
IT Baseline 142.884 290.631 447.666 610.894 785.000 953.930 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 142.884 290.631 447.666 610.894 785.000 953.930 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 142.884 290.631 447.666 610.894 785.000 953.930 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 142.884 290.631 447.666 610.894 785.000 953.930
LU Baseline 676 1.265 1.795 2.283 2.705 3.068 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 676 1.265 1.795 2.283 2.705 3.068 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 676 1.265 1.795 2.283 2.705 3.068 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 676 1.265 1.795 2.283 2.705 3.068
NL Baseline 21.652 44.251 67.586 91.543 114.809 137.092 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 21.652 44.251 67.586 91.543 114.809 137.092 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 21.652 44.251 67.586 91.543 114.809 137.092 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 21.652 44.251 67.586 91.543 114.809 137.092
PL Baseline 209.696 302.235 377.567 434.971 488.729 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 209.696 302.235 377.567 434.971 488.729 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 209.696 302.235 377.567 434.971 488.729 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 209.696 302.235 377.567 434.971 488.729
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 18.623 42.162 67.819 94.697 113.648 133.958 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 18.623 42.162 67.819 94.697 113.648 133.958 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 18.623 42.162 67.819 94.697 113.648 133.958 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 18.623 42.162 67.819 94.697 113.648 133.958
SE Baseline 1.686 3.458 5.382 7.499 9.474 11.550 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.686 3.458 5.382 7.499 9.474 11.550 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.686 3.458 5.382 7.499 9.474 11.550 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.686 3.458 5.382 7.499 9.474 11.550
SI Baseline 2.496 5.446 8.998 13.131 17.726 22.418 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.496 5.446 8.998 13.131 17.726 22.418 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.496 5.446 8.998 13.131 17.726 22.418 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.496 5.446 8.998 13.131 17.726 22.418
UK Baseline 76.557 156.235 238.923 323.993 401.531 474.923 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 76.557 156.235 238.923 323.993 401.531 474.923 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 76.557 156.235 238.923 323.993 401.531 474.923 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 76.557 156.235 238.923 323.993 401.531 474.923
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 4.366.958 4.952.373 5.513.208 6.041.686 6.535.392 6.991.730 7.406.992 7.777.872 8.108.108 8.398.551 8.653.060 8.877.138 9.076.062 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.366.958 4.952.373 5.515.532 6.050.201 6.550.824 7.014.977 7.439.723 7.821.985 8.166.566 8.474.139 8.748.879 8.996.736 9.223.187 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.366.958 4.952.373 5.523.150 6.067.846 6.581.673 7.047.859 7.473.992 7.856.294 8.200.289 8.505.882 8.777.517 9.021.359 9.243.090 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.366.958 4.952.373 5.522.916 6.066.771 6.575.918 7.044.472 7.473.302 7.859.111 8.206.763 8.516.872 8.793.706 9.043.245 9.270.999
EU15 Baseline 4.066.411 4.608.273 5.127.884 5.618.649 6.076.758 6.499.909 6.885.377 7.231.013 7.540.868 7.815.342 8.056.806 8.269.366 8.457.665 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.066.411 4.608.273 5.130.017 5.626.529 6.091.373 6.522.062 6.916.478 7.272.657 7.595.639 7.885.689 8.145.529 8.379.712 8.593.097 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.066.411 4.608.273 5.137.270 5.643.445 6.121.038 6.553.932 6.949.930 7.306.441 7.629.199 7.917.768 8.175.114 8.405.963 8.615.348 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.066.411 4.608.273 5.136.978 5.642.173 6.115.033 6.549.817 6.948.032 7.307.526 7.633.409 7.925.886 8.187.754 8.423.578 8.638.243
EU10 Baseline 300.547 344.100 385.324 423.037 458.634 491.822 521.615 546.860 567.240 583.208 596.254 607.772 618.397 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 300.547 344.100 385.515 423.672 459.451 492.915 523.245 549.328 570.927 588.450 603.350 617.024 630.091 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 300.547 344.100 385.879 424.401 460.634 493.927 524.062 549.853 571.090 588.113 602.403 615.396 627.742 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 300.547 344.100 385.938 424.599 460.885 494.656 525.270 551.584 573.354 590.987 605.952 619.667 632.756
AT Baseline 69.191 77.746 85.316 91.596 96.831 101.169 104.793 107.884 110.625 113.102 115.338 117.330 119.075 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 69.191 77.746 85.655 92.517 98.223 103.030 107.144 110.774 114.136 117.332 120.378 123.264 125.956 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 69.191 77.746 85.690 92.564 98.260 102.983 107.015 110.553 113.807 116.862 119.729 122.398 124.844 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 69.191 77.746 85.700 92.586 98.287 103.052 107.125 110.713 114.024 117.157 120.130 122.930 125.528
BE Baseline 74.486 88.018 100.586 111.385 121.122 129.836 137.577 144.421 150.547 156.031 160.944 165.354 169.312 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 74.486 88.018 100.672 111.691 121.425 130.084 137.854 144.828 151.217 157.085 162.485 167.485 172.129 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 74.486 88.018 100.798 111.848 121.528 129.820 137.231 143.826 149.835 155.291 160.254 164.807 169.004 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 74.486 88.018 100.808 111.946 121.762 130.423 138.189 145.139 151.484 157.284 162.603 167.519 172.080
CZ Baseline 170.272 189.388 208.647 224.225 239.461 254.141 268.035 280.850 292.978 304.290 314.671 324.052 332.533 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 170.272 189.388 208.111 222.980 237.326 251.138 264.214 276.246 287.548 297.908 307.154 315.167 322.047 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 170.272 189.388 208.249 223.184 237.686 251.378 264.354 276.288 287.507 297.762 306.871 314.670 321.201 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 170.272 189.388 208.486 223.788 238.635 252.827 266.266 278.645 290.324 301.112 310.862 319.462 326.989
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 833.817 952.289 1.066.6471.172.279 1.271.650 1.364.383 1.450.156 1.528.798 1.601.121 1.667.275 1.727.481 1.782.129 1.831.679 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 833.817 952.289 1.067.752 1.175.596 1.277.090 1.371.643 1.459.726 1.541.251 1.617.214 1.687.736 1.753.072 1.813.688 1.870.070 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 833.817 952.289 1.069.357 1.178.282 1.280.354 1.372.017 1.457.108 1.535.390 1.608.038 1.675.051 1.736.758 1.793.673 1.846.336 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 833.817 952.289 1.069.184 1.178.286 1.280.563 1.374.848 1.462.608 1.543.722 1.619.220 1.689.217 1.753.995 1.814.022 1.869.784
DK Baseline 31.490 36.747 42.089 46.584 50.427 53.496 55.846 57.705 59.344 60.883 62.276 63.395 64.133 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 31.490 36.747 42.399 47.252 51.407 54.747 57.306 59.343 61.174 62.963 64.687 66.219 67.435 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 31.490 36.747 42.396 47.245 51.397 54.727 57.285 59.327 61.169 62.965 64.686 66.203 67.389 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 31.490 36.747 42.419 47.287 51.452 54.795 57.366 59.422 61.275 63.083 64.816 66.348 67.553
ES Baseline 376.850 424.085 470.239516.920 561.431 603.591 643.266 680.379 715.461 748.529 779.689 809.061 836.792 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 376.850 424.085 470.137 517.033 562.034 604.885 645.312 683.227 719.294 753.497 785.997 816.974 846.623 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 376.850 424.085 470.674 518.437 564.642 607.989 648.850 687.119 723.560 758.077 790.850 822.059 851.895 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 376.850 424.085 470.664 518.249 563.839 606.953 647.626 685.774 722.061 756.474 789.174 820.342 850.169
FI Baseline 33.784 39.147 44.957 51.143 56.777 61.511 65.272 68.159 70.424 72.413 74.421 76.545 78.691 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 33.784 39.147 45.237 51.968 58.135 63.323 67.435 70.576 73.032 75.207 77.464 79.960 82.625 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 33.784 39.147 45.243 51.937 58.007 63.025 66.999 70.044 72.449 74.604 76.846 79.305 81.891 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 33.784 39.147 45.265 52.010 58.158 63.304 67.391 70.528 72.996 75.197 77.479 79.989 82.648
FR Baseline 614.111 687.213 755.449820.913 880.211 933.229 979.924 1.020.512 1.056.044 1.086.977 1.113.862 1.137.309 1.157.967 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 614.111 687.213 755.520 821.473 881.380 934.848 982.167 1.023.592 1.060.336 1.092.821 1.121.650 1.147.515 1.171.123 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 614.111 687.213 756.891 824.813 887.240 941.303 989.099 1.030.764 1.067.617 1.099.984 1.128.496 1.153.874 1.176.861 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 614.111 687.213 756.623 824.037 885.290 939.481 987.466 1.029.463 1.066.685 1.099.558 1.128.692 1.154.779 1.178.526
GR Baseline Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d)
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 166.164 180.043 194.383205.588 217.053 228.768 240.665 252.466 264.219 275.218 284.714 292.094 297.374 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 166.164 180.043 193.938 204.533 215.139 225.974 236.968 247.834 258.551 268.399 276.657 282.806 287.067 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 166.164 180.043 193.880 204.258 214.570 224.885 235.322 245.571 255.573 264.558 271.777 276.697 279.591 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 166.164 180.043 194.129 204.898 215.712 226.676 237.797 248.790 259.656 269.677 278.130 284.477 288.898
IE Baseline 41.332 46.665 51.885 57.660 63.229 68.563 73.639 78.438 83.001 87.330 91.429 95.312 99.004 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 41.332 46.665 52.249 58.602 64.796 70.804 76.579 82.097 87.400 92.491 97.365 102.040 106.533 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 41.332 46.665 52.267 58.634 64.824 70.750 76.431 81.842 87.035 92.008 96.757 101.302 105.664 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 41.332 46.665 52.281 58.667 64.868 70.843 76.581 82.058 87.319 92.367 97.197 101.826 106.273
IT Baseline 1.116.646 1.272.269 1.421.180 1.553.948 1.677.346 1.790.948 1.894.367 1.987.495 2.071.833 2.147.562 2.214.946 2.274.502 2.326.645 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.116.646 1.272.269 1.420.298 1.552.436 1.675.505 1.789.111 1.892.672 1.986.099 2.071.153 2.147.941 2.216.876 2.278.623 2.333.699 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.116.646 1.272.269 1.422.400 1.557.648 1.685.293 1.801.329 1.907.184 2.002.601 2.089.534 2.167.916 2.238.221 2.301.125 2.357.151 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.116.646 1.272.269 1.422.381 1.557.149 1.682.889 1.798.245 1.903.500 1.998.503 2.085.033 2.163.193 2.233.412 2.296.343 2.352.505
LU Baseline 3.363 3.586 3.743 3.834 3.892 3.931 3.962 3.988 4.015 4.043 4.072 4.103 4.136 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.363 3.586 3.762 3.885 3.972 4.042 4.103 4.158 4.211 4.264 4.316 4.369 4.422 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.363 3.586 3.767 3.897 3.993 4.064 4.125 4.178 4.229 4.279 4.328 4.378 4.428 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.363 3.586 3.766 3.893 3.981 4.049 4.108 4.160 4.211 4.260 4.310 4.360 4.412
NL Baseline 158.234 178.160 197.102215.076 232.593 249.451 264.807 277.572 287.171 293.804 298.603 302.700 306.637 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 158.234 178.160 197.134 215.189 232.798 249.881 265.601 278.880 289.165 296.620 302.354 307.493 312.577 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 158.234 178.160 197.290 215.597 233.619 250.944 266.875 280.299 290.667 298.120 303.791 308.825 313.784 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 158.234 178.160 197.324 215.649 233.574 250.899 266.848 280.329 290.786 298.383 304.238 309.483 314.660
PL Baseline 539.883 589.438 639.352681.959 722.617 761.143 798.105 833.805 869.545 904.285 936.490 965.617 992.349 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 539.883 589.438 637.713 677.907 715.576 751.017 784.909 817.423 849.448 879.674 906.414 929.114 948.825 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 539.883 589.438 638.361 679.026 717.493 752.696 786.543 819.117 851.236 881.414 907.833 929.756 948.061 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 539.883 589.438 639.020 680.866 720.382 757.284 792.709 826.878 860.844 893.335 922.660 948.167 970.635
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 155.738 179.088 204.385237.532 272.071 307.326 341.970 374.110 402.201 424.395 439.834 449.219 454.614 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 155.738 179.088 204.062 236.635 270.690 305.668 340.117 372.130 400.176 422.388 437.923 447.499 453.206 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 155.738 179.088 204.386 237.829 273.334 309.477 345.018 377.992 406.882 429.781 445.886 455.972 462.178 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 155.738 179.088 204.480 237.989 273.146 309.068 344.424 377.280 406.102 429.009 445.168 455.321 461.589
SE Baseline 13.728 15.984 18.277 20.429 22.365 24.007 25.340 26.433 27.419 28.396 29.381 30.319 31.137 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.728 15.984 18.317 20.531 22.527 24.224 25.605 26.742 27.778 28.824 29.908 30.982 31.969 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.728 15.984 18.333 20.564 22.574 24.257 25.625 26.754 27.792 28.841 29.926 30.992 31.961 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.728 15.984 18.337 20.575 22.590 24.295 25.684 26.831 27.880 28.941 30.040 31.125 32.119
SI Baseline 27.108 31.786 36.562 41.539 46.515 51.424 56.193 60.735 64.997 68.844 72.180 75.008 77.445 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 27.108 31.786 36.524 41.431 46.310 51.110 55.786 60.253 64.462 68.279 71.614 74.477 76.995 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 27.108 31.786 36.544 41.440 46.278 50.948 55.497 59.832 63.904 67.572 70.748 73.443 75.785 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 27.108 31.786 36.562 41.510 46.418 51.219 55.894 60.355 64.556 68.362 71.685 74.536 77.041
UK Baseline 543.641 607.277 666.030719.350 766.813 808.469 844.458 875.117 901.663 924.602 944.530 962.087 977.845 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 543.641 607.277 666.823 721.721 771.392 815.770 854.856 888.961 919.354 946.519 971.053 993.603 1.014.729 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 543.641 607.277 667.779 724.151 775.972 821.247 861.085 895.749 926.584 953.988 978.588 1.001.050 1.021.961 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 543.641 607.277 667.745 723.848 774.635 819.562 859.116 893.605 924.331 951.762 976.499 999.189 1.020.395
stock PCDM 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 15.983.630 18.614.231 21.535.210 24.707.088 28.154.607 31.972.420 33.945.502 35.914.793 37.940.870 40.007.586 41.941.527 43.635.060 45.190.268 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 15.983.630 18.614.231 21.535.210 24.707.088 28.154.607 31.972.420 33.945.502 35.914.793 37.940.870 40.007.586 41.941.527 43.635.059 45.190.266 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 15.983.630 18.614.231 21.535.210 24.707.088 28.154.607 31.972.420 33.945.502 35.914.793 37.940.870 40.007.586 41.941.527 43.635.059 45.190.266 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 15.983.630 18.614.231 21.535.210 24.707.088 28.154.607 31.972.420 33.945.502 35.914.793 37.940.870 40.007.586 41.941.527 43.635.059 45.190.266
EU15 Baseline 13.979.841 16.468.665 19.214.213 22.188.392 25.430.544 29.014.268 30.796.735 32.586.257 34.412.919 36.267.903 38.058.980 39.617.211 41.050.723 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.979.841 16.468.665 19.214.213 22.188.392 25.430.544 29.014.268 30.796.735 32.586.257 34.412.919 36.267.903 38.058.980 39.617.210 41.050.722 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.979.841 16.468.665 19.214.213 22.188.392 25.430.544 29.014.268 30.796.735 32.586.257 34.412.919 36.267.903 38.058.980 39.617.210 41.050.722 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.979.841 16.468.665 19.214.213 22.188.392 25.430.544 29.014.268 30.796.735 32.586.257 34.412.919 36.267.903 38.058.980 39.617.210 41.050.722
EU10 Baseline 2.003.789 2.145.567 2.320.998 2.518.697 2.724.063 2.958.152 3.148.767 3.328.535 3.527.951 3.739.682 3.882.547 4.017.850 4.139.545 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.003.789 2.145.567 2.320.998 2.518.697 2.724.063 2.958.152 3.148.767 3.328.535 3.527.951 3.739.682 3.882.547 4.017.849 4.139.544 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.003.789 2.145.567 2.320.998 2.518.697 2.724.063 2.958.152 3.148.767 3.328.535 3.527.951 3.739.682 3.882.547 4.017.849 4.139.544 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.003.789 2.145.567 2.320.998 2.518.697 2.724.063 2.958.152 3.148.767 3.328.535 3.527.951 3.739.682 3.882.547 4.017.849 4.139.544
AT Baseline 572.182 697.989 825.394 952.961 1.081.781 1.210.848 1.280.087 1.348.789 1.418.276 1.489.362 1.561.707 1.637.540 1.712.664 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 572.182 697.989 825.394 952.961 1.081.781 1.210.848 1.280.087 1.348.789 1.418.276 1.489.362 1.561.707 1.637.540 1.712.664 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 572.182 697.989 825.394 952.961 1.081.781 1.210.848 1.280.087 1.348.789 1.418.276 1.489.362 1.561.707 1.637.540 1.712.664 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 572.182 697.989 825.394 952.961 1.081.781 1.210.848 1.280.087 1.348.789 1.418.276 1.489.362 1.561.707 1.637.540 1.712.664
BE Baseline 1.176.559 1.234.772 1.310.576 1.398.970 1.487.700 1.583.935 1.674.517 1.754.956 1.849.483 1.953.371 2.000.574 2.046.242 2.085.919 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.176.559 1.234.772 1.310.576 1.398.970 1.487.700 1.583.935 1.674.517 1.754.956 1.849.483 1.953.371 2.000.574 2.046.242 2.085.918 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.176.559 1.234.772 1.310.576 1.398.970 1.487.700 1.583.935 1.674.517 1.754.956 1.849.483 1.953.371 2.000.574 2.046.242 2.085.918 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.176.559 1.234.772 1.310.576 1.398.970 1.487.700 1.583.935 1.674.517 1.754.956 1.849.483 1.953.371 2.000.574 2.046.242 2.085.918
CZ Baseline 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 576.833 643.706 704.304 760.789 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 576.833 643.706 704.304 760.789 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 576.833 643.706 704.304 760.789 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 461.277 576.833 643.706 704.304 760.789
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 3.299.002 3.503.498 3.725.444 3.959.650 4.211.899 4.492.167 4.802.008 5.121.095 5.448.663 5.779.236 6.110.142 6.466.991 6.788.569 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.299.002 3.503.498 3.725.444 3.959.650 4.211.899 4.492.167 4.802.008 5.121.095 5.448.663 5.779.236 6.110.142 6.466.991 6.788.569 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.299.002 3.503.498 3.725.444 3.959.650 4.211.899 4.492.167 4.802.008 5.121.095 5.448.663 5.779.236 6.110.142 6.466.991 6.788.569 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.299.002 3.503.498 3.725.444 3.959.650 4.211.899 4.492.167 4.802.008 5.121.095 5.448.663 5.779.236 6.110.142 6.466.991 6.788.569
DK Baseline 47.589 55.002 63.206 72.168 82.489 93.227 95.222 97.303 99.494 101.812 104.280 106.006 107.689 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 47.589 55.002 63.206 72.168 82.489 93.227 95.222 97.303 99.494 101.812 104.280 106.006 107.689 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 47.589 55.002 63.206 72.168 82.489 93.227 95.222 97.303 99.494 101.812 104.280 106.006 107.689 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 47.589 55.002 63.206 72.168 82.489 93.227 95.222 97.303 99.494 101.812 104.280 106.006 107.689
ES Baseline 1.711.440 2.218.199 2.788.788 3.420.875 4.129.456 4.879.370 5.180.761 5.493.333 5.815.586 6.150.591 6.493.095 6.700.981 6.907.147 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.711.440 2.218.199 2.788.788 3.420.875 4.129.456 4.879.370 5.180.761 5.493.333 5.815.586 6.150.591 6.493.095 6.700.981 6.907.147 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.711.440 2.218.199 2.788.788 3.420.875 4.129.456 4.879.370 5.180.761 5.493.333 5.815.586 6.150.591 6.493.095 6.700.981 6.907.147 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.711.440 2.218.199 2.788.788 3.420.875 4.129.456 4.879.370 5.180.761 5.493.333 5.815.586 6.150.591 6.493.095 6.700.981 6.907.147
FI Baseline 99.705 126.938 160.984203.798 258.713 334.056 341.566 349.162 356.964 364.961 373.182 377.038 380.858 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 99.705 126.938 160.984 203.798 258.713 334.056 341.566 349.162 356.964 364.961 373.182 377.038 380.858 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 99.705 126.938 160.984 203.798 258.713 334.056 341.566 349.162 356.964 364.961 373.182 377.038 380.858 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 99.705 126.938 160.984 203.798 258.713 334.056 341.566 349.162 356.964 364.961 373.182 377.038 380.858
FR Baseline 2.872.877 3.429.911 4.019.908 4.634.319 5.275.017 5.948.691 6.440.883 6.927.143 7.403.779 7.871.757 8.321.782 8.656.792 8.953.077 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.872.877 3.429.911 4.019.908 4.634.319 5.275.017 5.948.691 6.440.883 6.927.143 7.403.779 7.871.757 8.321.782 8.656.792 8.953.077 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.872.877 3.429.911 4.019.908 4.634.319 5.275.017 5.948.691 6.440.883 6.927.143 7.403.779 7.871.757 8.321.782 8.656.792 8.953.077 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.872.877 3.429.911 4.019.908 4.634.319 5.275.017 5.948.691 6.440.883 6.927.143 7.403.779 7.871.757 8.321.782 8.656.792 8.953.077
GR Baseline 18.083 19.851 21.792 23.923 26.262 28.830 29.702 30.601 31.527 32.481 33.464 33.313 33.201 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 18.083 19.851 21.792 23.923 26.262 28.830 29.702 30.601 31.527 32.481 33.464 33.313 33.201 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 18.083 19.851 21.792 23.923 26.262 28.830 29.702 30.601 31.527 32.481 33.464 33.313 33.201 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 18.083 19.851 21.792 23.923 26.262 28.830 29.702 30.601 31.527 32.481 33.464 33.313 33.201
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 242.775 242.775 242.775242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 244.430 244.726 248.315 252.951 259.038 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 244.430 244.726 248.315 252.951 259.038 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 244.430 244.726 248.315 252.951 259.038 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 242.775 244.430 244.726 248.315 252.951 259.038
IE Baseline 73.601 87.275 103.665122.978 145.584 173.153 180.523 188.061 196.388 205.255 214.588 220.004 224.603 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 73.601 87.275 103.665 122.978 145.584 173.153 180.523 188.061 196.388 205.255 214.588 220.004 224.603 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 73.601 87.275 103.665 122.978 145.584 173.153 180.523 188.061 196.388 205.255 214.588 220.004 224.603 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 73.601 87.275 103.665 122.978 145.584 173.153 180.523 188.061 196.388 205.255 214.588 220.004 224.603
IT Baseline 2.465.457 3.142.347 3.901.433 4.743.546 5.690.301 6.800.171 6.979.678 7.162.522 7.347.542 7.538.412 7.730.452 7.976.935 8.209.800 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.465.457 3.142.347 3.901.433 4.743.546 5.690.301 6.800.171 6.979.678 7.162.522 7.347.542 7.538.412 7.730.452 7.976.935 8.209.800 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.465.457 3.142.347 3.901.433 4.743.546 5.690.301 6.800.171 6.979.678 7.162.522 7.347.542 7.538.412 7.730.452 7.976.935 8.209.800 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.465.457 3.142.347 3.901.433 4.743.546 5.690.301 6.800.171 6.979.678 7.162.522 7.347.542 7.538.412 7.730.452 7.976.935 8.209.800
LU Baseline 23.034 32.465 42.060 51.648 61.030 70.177 74.068 77.290 79.879 81.983 83.590 84.509 84.813 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 23.034 32.465 42.060 51.648 61.030 70.177 74.068 77.290 79.879 81.983 83.590 84.509 84.813 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 23.034 32.465 42.060 51.648 61.030 70.177 74.068 77.290 79.879 81.983 83.590 84.509 84.813 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 23.034 32.465 42.060 51.648 61.030 70.177 74.068 77.290 79.879 81.983 83.590 84.509 84.813
NL Baseline 382.778 431.633 489.513552.321 620.384 697.135 750.560 805.330 862.000 919.145 976.132 1.031.200 1.081.036 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 382.778 431.633 489.513 552.321 620.384 697.135 750.560 805.330 862.000 919.145 976.132 1.031.200 1.081.036 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 382.778 431.633 489.513 552.321 620.384 697.135 750.560 805.330 862.000 919.145 976.132 1.031.200 1.081.036 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 382.778 431.633 489.513 552.321 620.384 697.135 750.560 805.330 862.000 919.145 976.132 1.031.200 1.081.036
PL Baseline 717.000 717.000 717.000717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 973.673 1.087.195 1.178.800 1.244.680 1.311.493 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 973.673 1.087.195 1.178.800 1.244.680 1.311.493 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 973.673 1.087.195 1.178.800 1.244.680 1.311.493 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 717.000 973.673 1.087.195 1.178.800 1.244.680 1.311.493
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 136.575 197.695 261.509327.724 396.945 468.772 512.219 556.918 606.836 659.250 713.186 748.690 785.069 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 136.575 197.695 261.509 327.724 396.945 468.772 512.219 556.918 606.836 659.250 713.186 748.690 785.069 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 136.575 197.695 261.509 327.724 396.945 468.772 512.219 556.918 606.836 659.250 713.186 748.690 785.069 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 136.575 197.695 261.509 327.724 396.945 468.772 512.219 556.918 606.836 659.250 713.186 748.690 785.069
SE Baseline 65.687 73.109 81.337 90.117 99.385 115.785 127.210 138.512 149.910 161.542 173.519 183.882 194.271 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 65.687 73.109 81.337 90.117 99.385 115.785 127.210 138.512 149.910 161.542 173.519 183.882 194.271 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 65.687 73.109 81.337 90.117 99.385 115.785 127.210 138.512 149.910 161.542 173.519 183.882 194.271 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 65.687 73.109 81.337 90.117 99.385 115.785 127.210 138.512 149.910 161.542 173.519 183.882 194.271
SI Baseline 69.711 69.711 69.711 69.711 69.711 69.711 66.242 63.049 60.433 58.508 57.330 57.177 57.878 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 69.711 69.711 69.711 69.711 69.711 69.711 66.242 63.049 60.433 58.508 57.330 57.177 57.878 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 69.711 69.711 69.711 69.711 69.711 69.711 66.242 63.049 60.433 58.508 57.330 57.177 57.878 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 69.711 69.711 69.711 69.711 69.711 69.711 66.242 63.049 60.433 58.508 57.330 57.177 57.878
UK Baseline 1.035.272 1.217.980 1.418.605 1.633.392 1.863.598 2.117.951 2.327.730 2.535.243 2.746.593 2.958.746 3.169.288 3.347.089 3.502.008 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.035.272 1.217.980 1.418.605 1.633.392 1.863.598 2.117.951 2.327.730 2.535.243 2.746.593 2.958.746 3.169.288 3.347.089 3.502.008 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.035.272 1.217.980 1.418.605 1.633.392 1.863.598 2.117.951 2.327.730 2.535.243 2.746.593 2.958.746 3.169.288 3.347.089 3.502.008 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.035.272 1.217.980 1.418.605 1.633.392 1.863.598 2.117.951 2.327.730 2.535.243 2.746.593 2.958.746 3.169.288 3.347.089 3.502.008
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 46.649.744 48.003.696 49.254.635 49.929.033 50.419.507 50.731.798 50.875.720 50.865.871 50.733.680 50.493.327 50.158.300 49.742.841 49.259.579 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 46.649.742 48.003.692 49.298.837 50.482.580 51.556.395 52.506.344 53.343.217 54.078.207 54.739.056 55.337.426 55.883.052 56.385.823 56.855.210 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 46.649.742 48.003.692 49.302.408 50.485.431 51.555.665 52.489.771 53.309.999 54.028.216 54.672.169 55.253.828 55.783.252 56.270.590 56.725.489 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 46.649.742 48.003.692 49.312.392 50.511.799 51.603.166 52.568.293 53.420.454 54.171.299 54.850.047 55.468.057 56.034.416 56.558.413 57.048.628
EU15 Baseline 42.396.619 43.646.196 44.801.890 45.475.126 45.980.383 46.321.532 46.506.878 46.549.393 46.477.817 46.304.994 46.043.022 45.704.422 45.300.164 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 42.396.617 43.646.195 44.839.738 45.942.056 46.940.830 47.824.431 48.603.879 49.290.109 49.909.256 50.472.108 50.987.391 51.463.581 51.908.729 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 42.396.617 43.646.195 44.843.251 45.945.803 46.942.841 47.813.779 48.579.745 49.252.176 49.857.100 50.405.617 50.906.774 51.369.370 51.801.662 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 42.396.617 43.646.195 44.852.188 45.969.445 46.985.278 47.884.244 48.679.111 49.381.114 50.017.645 50.599.222 51.133.988 51.630.017 52.094.624
EU10 Baseline 4.253.126 4.357.499 4.452.744 4.453.907 4.439.124 4.410.266 4.368.842 4.316.478 4.255.864 4.188.333 4.115.278 4.038.419 3.959.415 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.253.124 4.357.497 4.459.099 4.540.524 4.615.564 4.681.913 4.739.338 4.788.098 4.829.800 4.865.318 4.895.661 4.922.242 4.946.480 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.253.124 4.357.497 4.459.157 4.539.628 4.612.824 4.675.992 4.730.254 4.776.040 4.815.069 4.848.212 4.876.477 4.901.220 4.923.827 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.253.124 4.357.497 4.460.203 4.542.354 4.617.888 4.684.049 4.741.344 4.790.186 4.832.402 4.868.836 4.900.427 4.928.396 4.954.003
AT Baseline 1.787.660 1.860.606 1.929.236 1.951.164 1.961.295 1.959.686 1.947.662 1.927.404 1.901.545 1.872.060 1.840.161 1.806.405 1.770.947 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.787.660 1.860.606 1.931.389 1.991.775 2.045.290 2.088.304 2.122.018 2.148.188 2.169.226 2.187.060 2.202.950 2.217.457 2.230.820 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.787.660 1.860.606 1.931.466 1.991.187 2.043.278 2.084.002 2.115.432 2.139.383 2.158.310 2.174.165 2.188.234 2.201.077 2.212.917 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.787.660 1.860.606 1.931.592 1.991.859 2.045.066 2.087.806 2.121.300 2.147.316 2.168.305 2.186.187 2.202.205 2.216.909 2.230.500
BE Baseline 2.122.515 2.156.207 2.187.298 2.163.146 2.133.409 2.098.714 2.059.809 2.017.531 1.973.033 1.927.133 1.880.603 1.834.149 1.788.333 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.122.514 2.156.206 2.190.154 2.213.910 2.237.594 2.258.447 2.276.419 2.291.588 2.304.290 2.314.826 2.323.483 2.330.614 2.336.485 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.122.514 2.156.206 2.190.213 2.213.391 2.235.939 2.255.001 2.271.173 2.284.628 2.295.782 2.304.936 2.312.401 2.318.504 2.323.500 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.122.514 2.156.206 2.190.448 2.214.005 2.237.156 2.257.191 2.274.380 2.288.899 2.301.237 2.311.668 2.320.455 2.327.820 2.333.955
CZ Baseline 814.795 867.378 920.172 959.755 998.135 1.034.352 1.067.097 1.095.004 1.118.758 1.138.441 1.154.526 1.167.343 1.177.105 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 814.795 867.378 918.881 956.546 992.203 1.025.790 1.056.146 1.082.004 1.103.884 1.121.936 1.136.743 1.148.855 1.158.920 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 814.795 867.378 918.801 956.301 991.839 1.025.172 1.055.241 1.080.817 1.102.433 1.120.303 1.135.036 1.147.202 1.157.448 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 814.795 867.378 919.490 957.995 994.828 1.029.531 1.060.935 1.087.763 1.110.660 1.129.832 1.145.924 1.159.548 1.171.347
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 7.091.230 7.373.480 7.636.614 7.774.928 7.881.243 7.956.276 8.000.990 8.016.723 8.008.061 7.977.118 7.926.017 7.857.275 7.773.353 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.091.230 7.373.480 7.651.923 7.896.901 8.119.903 8.319.662 8.497.256 8.653.535 8.793.045 8.917.388 9.027.870 9.126.221 9.214.127 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.091.230 7.373.480 7.652.648 7.897.458 8.119.708 8.315.815 8.489.623 8.642.014 8.777.611 8.897.996 9.004.557 9.099.109 9.183.392 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.091.230 7.373.480 7.654.996 7.903.446 8.130.514 8.333.781 8.514.966 8.674.893 8.818.187 8.946.467 9.060.940 9.163.269 9.255.005
DK Baseline 109.658 111.918 114.505114.216 113.256 111.525 109.044 106.009 102.768 99.626 96.792 94.317 92.078 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 109.658 111.918 115.022 117.156 118.988 120.468 121.509 122.124 122.435 122.528 122.486 122.361 122.164 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 109.658 111.918 115.010 117.114 118.892 120.290 121.235 121.744 121.947 121.939 121.810 121.618 121.372 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 109.658 111.918 115.047 117.208 119.066 120.546 121.579 122.181 122.479 122.566 122.525 122.410 122.231
ES Baseline 7.112.620 7.316.587 7.519.171 7.715.085 7.897.352 8.064.304 8.214.505 8.346.849 8.463.178 8.563.158 8.646.979 8.715.109 8.768.358 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.112.620 7.316.587 7.519.856 7.743.008 7.960.153 8.169.101 8.370.195 8.563.187 8.750.440 8.932.480 9.110.081 9.284.055 9.455.372 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.112.620 7.316.587 7.520.087 7.742.826 7.958.826 8.165.079 8.363.188 8.552.952 8.736.631 8.914.864 9.088.499 9.258.439 9.425.754 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.112.620 7.316.587 7.521.001 7.745.579 7.964.237 8.174.555 8.376.988 8.571.345 8.760.242 8.944.195 9.123.964 9.300.327 9.474.230
FI Baseline 385.507 391.088 397.629401.014 402.965 402.965 400.512 395.256 387.436 377.736 367.384 357.891 350.525 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 385.507 391.088 398.750 409.301 419.980 430.766 441.468 451.802 461.600 470.459 478.129 484.719 490.643 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 385.507 391.088 398.717 409.185 419.704 430.224 440.555 450.394 459.580 467.747 474.709 480.650 486.046 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 385.507 391.088 398.814 409.495 420.339 431.243 442.054 452.487 462.383 471.345 479.122 485.820 491.851
FR Baseline 9.214.641 9.441.405 9.635.920 9.749.467 9.822.082 9.857.031 9.857.782 9.828.358 9.774.903 9.700.911 9.609.534 9.503.512 9.385.262 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.214.641 9.441.405 9.639.938 9.835.877 10.006.517 10.149.984 10.270.735 10.372.340 10.460.164 10.537.396 10.606.455 10.669.182 10.727.117 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.214.641 9.441.405 9.640.889 9.837.241 10.008.081 10.150.117 10.269.321 10.369.424 10.455.744 10.531.509 10.599.174 10.660.600 10.717.331 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.214.641 9.441.405 9.642.067 9.840.422 10.013.829 10.160.197 10.283.902 10.388.591 10.479.870 10.560.728 10.633.485 10.699.851 10.761.278
GR Baseline 33.128 33.095 33.102 33.555 34.014 34.481 34.956 35.438 35.929 36.427 36.933 37.447 37.970 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 33.128 33.095 33.102 33.564 34.044 34.534 35.032 35.537 36.047 36.564 37.089 37.619 38.157 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 33.128 33.095 33.102 33.563 34.043 34.534 35.034 35.543 36.056 36.577 37.105 37.639 38.180 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 33.128 33.095 33.102 33.563 34.039 34.524 35.017 35.517 36.023 36.536 37.056 37.582 38.116
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 266.272 274.550 284.088290.196 296.324 302.209 307.476 311.586 314.418 315.329 313.910 310.211 305.069 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 266.272 274.550 283.561 289.137 294.518 299.814 304.671 308.597 311.494 312.847 312.410 310.397 307.735 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 266.272 274.550 283.445 288.835 293.985 299.032 303.656 307.353 310.006 311.100 310.388 308.094 305.146 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 266.272 274.550 283.787 289.647 295.394 301.038 306.248 310.538 313.859 315.715 315.872 314.533 312.570
IE Baseline 229.067 233.371 237.533239.182 240.245 240.740 240.703 240.175 239.310 238.178 236.832 235.344 233.775 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 229.067 233.371 238.309 245.333 252.267 258.966 265.472 271.771 277.995 284.158 290.254 296.302 302.317 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 229.067 233.371 238.317 245.318 252.186 258.751 265.125 271.294 277.383 283.412 289.377 295.298 301.192 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 229.067 233.371 238.371 245.489 252.533 259.348 265.975 272.395 278.744 285.038 291.270 297.454 303.606
IT Baseline 8.432.418 8.643.266 8.842.774 8.947.259 9.027.354 9.082.097 9.110.832 9.113.611 9.093.582 9.051.820 8.989.570 8.908.769 8.811.115 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.432.418 8.643.266 8.846.169 9.005.845 9.152.515 9.283.278 9.398.043 9.496.718 9.581.925 9.654.499 9.715.319 9.765.423 9.806.018 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.432.418 8.643.266 8.846.966 9.007.267 9.154.850 9.285.417 9.399.738 9.497.844 9.582.253 9.653.938 9.713.817 9.763.018 9.802.791 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.432.418 8.643.266 8.848.337 9.010.780 9.160.703 9.294.540 9.412.310 9.514.020 9.602.587 9.678.843 9.743.486 9.797.610 9.842.206
LU Baseline 84.795 84.498 83.974 80.542 76.882 73.121 69.388 65.804 62.474 59.440 56.692 54.176 51.819 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 84.795 84.498 84.223 83.531 82.772 81.797 80.696 79.474 78.146 76.713 75.180 73.558 71.856 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 84.795 84.498 84.248 83.541 82.739 81.659 80.461 79.150 77.746 76.253 74.676 73.026 71.312 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 84.795 84.498 84.248 83.569 82.822 81.868 80.785 79.576 78.261 76.837 75.309 73.689 71.987
NL Baseline 1.126.398 1.166.226 1.200.324 1.216.180 1.225.483 1.229.514 1.229.088 1.224.871 1.217.821 1.208.109 1.195.886 1.181.505 1.165.346 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.126.398 1.166.226 1.201.719 1.230.523 1.254.581 1.275.079 1.292.346 1.306.811 1.319.480 1.330.822 1.341.273 1.351.332 1.361.427 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.126.398 1.166.226 1.201.743 1.230.432 1.254.257 1.274.179 1.290.921 1.304.957 1.317.293 1.328.380 1.338.613 1.348.455 1.358.315 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.126.398 1.166.226 1.202.260 1.231.791 1.256.721 1.277.882 1.295.829 1.311.016 1.324.474 1.336.665 1.347.988 1.358.910 1.369.812
PL Baseline 1.378.841 1.447.017 1.518.397 1.578.135 1.635.756 1.688.761 1.733.953 1.767.590 1.789.600 1.797.738 1.790.864 1.771.715 1.747.593 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.378.841 1.447.017 1.514.480 1.567.935 1.617.234 1.662.263 1.699.903 1.726.291 1.740.496 1.739.904 1.723.274 1.693.503 1.658.695 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.378.841 1.447.017 1.514.409 1.568.242 1.618.592 1.664.424 1.702.847 1.730.063 1.745.230 1.745.795 1.730.538 1.702.311 1.669.082 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.378.841 1.447.017 1.516.449 1.573.065 1.626.549 1.675.536 1.716.944 1.746.993 1.765.205 1.769.190 1.757.813 1.733.949 1.705.358
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 821.241 855.493 885.808922.494 950.312 969.108 980.877 988.626 994.884 1.000.275 1.004.788 1.008.254 1.010.543 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 821.241 855.493 885.461 922.336 950.461 969.977 982.992 992.608 1.001.326 1.009.851 1.018.229 1.026.411 1.034.443 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 821.241 855.493 885.526 922.502 950.748 970.314 983.450 993.255 1.002.163 1.010.869 1.019.398 1.027.695 1.035.813 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 821.241 855.493 885.736 923.126 951.867 971.971 985.615 995.887 1.005.299 1.014.521 1.023.581 1.032.425 1.041.107
SE Baseline 205.522 217.621 230.526239.322 247.175 253.709 258.598 261.672 263.027 262.764 261.106 258.401 255.072 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 205.522 217.621 231.486 245.232 258.544 271.108 282.460 292.305 300.619 307.348 312.597 316.674 320.045 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 205.522 217.621 231.451 245.109 258.277 270.600 281.680 291.225 299.225 305.640 310.593 314.403 317.543 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 205.522 217.621 231.556 245.373 258.753 271.323 282.676 292.521 300.836 307.577 312.852 316.972 320.399
SI Baseline 59.504 61.942 65.014 68.302 71.483 74.335 76.719 78.587 80.065 81.259 82.279 83.175 83.928 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 59.504 61.942 64.991 68.464 71.880 75.051 77.852 80.229 82.300 84.162 85.935 87.696 89.468 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 59.504 61.942 64.990 68.460 71.873 75.022 77.796 80.147 82.192 84.036 85.798 87.557 89.330 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 59.504 61.942 65.026 68.555 72.043 75.285 78.152 80.592 82.721 84.645 86.480 88.308 90.147
UK Baseline 3.640.219 3.761.334 3.867.477 3.927.573 3.967.315 3.988.262 3.992.131 3.981.065 3.959.867 3.930.239 3.893.747 3.851.866 3.805.668 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.640.219 3.761.334 3.872.236 3.967.765 4.047.222 4.112.959 4.167.237 4.212.121 4.252.520 4.290.016 4.325.993 4.361.654 4.397.738 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.640.219 3.761.334 3.872.868 3.969.671 4.051.313 4.117.798 4.172.807 4.218.369 4.259.374 4.297.392 4.333.812 4.369.840 4.406.204 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.640.219 3.761.334 3.874.613 3.973.742 4.057.634 4.127.468 4.185.734 4.234.470 4.278.720 4.320.050 4.359.753 4.398.969 4.438.341
stock PCDB 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 8.886.892 8.952.699 9.076.659 9.261.800 9.514.405 9.859.910 9.921.846 10.013.685 10.128.850 10.269.496 10.423.974 10.577.176 10.756.026 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.886.892 8.952.699 9.076.659 9.261.800 9.514.405 9.859.910 9.921.846 10.013.685 10.128.850 10.269.496 10.423.974 10.577.175 10.756.026 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.886.892 8.952.699 9.076.659 9.261.800 9.514.405 9.859.910 9.921.846 10.013.685 10.128.850 10.269.496 10.423.974 10.577.175 10.756.026 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.886.892 8.952.699 9.076.659 9.261.800 9.514.405 9.859.910 9.921.846 10.013.685 10.128.850 10.269.496 10.423.974 10.577.175 10.756.026
EU15 Baseline 8.245.709 8.297.829 8.401.091 8.560.312 8.784.104 9.099.589 9.140.915 9.206.146 9.293.056 9.407.454 9.537.677 9.665.297 9.815.560 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.245.709 8.297.829 8.401.091 8.560.312 8.784.104 9.099.589 9.140.915 9.206.146 9.293.056 9.407.454 9.537.677 9.665.297 9.815.560 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.245.709 8.297.829 8.401.091 8.560.312 8.784.104 9.099.589 9.140.915 9.206.146 9.293.056 9.407.454 9.537.677 9.665.297 9.815.560 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.245.709 8.297.829 8.401.091 8.560.312 8.784.104 9.099.589 9.140.915 9.206.146 9.293.056 9.407.454 9.537.677 9.665.297 9.815.560
EU10 Baseline 641.183 654.870 675.568 701.489 730.301 760.321 780.931 807.540 835.794 862.042 886.297 911.878 940.466 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 641.183 654.870 675.568 701.489 730.301 760.321 780.931 807.540 835.794 862.042 886.297 911.878 940.466 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 641.183 654.870 675.568 701.489 730.301 760.321 780.931 807.540 835.794 862.042 886.297 911.878 940.466 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 641.183 654.870 675.568 701.489 730.301 760.321 780.931 807.540 835.794 862.042 886.297 911.878 940.466
AT Baseline 245.219 256.507 269.397 284.355 301.210 320.873 328.328 336.396 345.218 355.360 366.578 380.087 395.681 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 245.219 256.507 269.397 284.355 301.210 320.873 328.328 336.396 345.218 355.360 366.578 380.087 395.681 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 245.219 256.507 269.397 284.355 301.210 320.873 328.328 336.396 345.218 355.360 366.578 380.087 395.681 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 245.219 256.507 269.397 284.355 301.210 320.873 328.328 336.396 345.218 355.360 366.578 380.087 395.681
BE Baseline 214.739 225.363 239.199 255.332 271.527 284.119 297.252 314.577 332.464 347.491 360.276 373.985 388.321 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 214.739 225.363 239.199 255.332 271.527 284.119 297.252 314.577 332.464 347.491 360.276 373.985 388.321 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 214.739 225.363 239.199 255.332 271.527 284.119 297.252 314.577 332.464 347.491 360.276 373.985 388.321 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 214.739 225.363 239.199 255.332 271.527 284.119 297.252 314.577 332.464 347.491 360.276 373.985 388.321
CZ Baseline 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 90.492 89.606 89.923 90.601 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 90.492 89.606 89.923 90.601 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 90.492 89.606 89.923 90.601 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 95.474 90.492 89.606 89.923 90.601
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 2.199.335 2.169.525 2.145.830 2.128.872 2.120.197 2.132.230 2.157.667 2.189.583 2.227.330 2.273.725 2.322.033 2.388.517 2.459.429 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.199.335 2.169.525 2.145.830 2.128.872 2.120.197 2.132.230 2.157.667 2.189.583 2.227.330 2.273.725 2.322.033 2.388.517 2.459.429 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.199.335 2.169.525 2.145.830 2.128.872 2.120.197 2.132.230 2.157.667 2.189.583 2.227.330 2.273.725 2.322.033 2.388.517 2.459.429 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.199.335 2.169.525 2.145.830 2.128.872 2.120.197 2.132.230 2.157.667 2.189.583 2.227.330 2.273.725 2.322.033 2.388.517 2.459.429
DK Baseline 31.727 31.939 32.577 33.649 35.344 38.315 38.257 38.262 38.327 38.506 38.659 38.601 38.743 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 31.727 31.939 32.577 33.649 35.344 38.315 38.257 38.262 38.327 38.506 38.659 38.601 38.743 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 31.727 31.939 32.577 33.649 35.344 38.315 38.257 38.262 38.327 38.506 38.659 38.601 38.743 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 31.727 31.939 32.577 33.649 35.344 38.315 38.257 38.262 38.327 38.506 38.659 38.601 38.743
ES Baseline 1.140.961 1.151.349 1.168.909 1.194.493 1.230.477 1.279.102 1.271.209 1.265.176 1.261.507 1.260.968 1.263.283 1.248.819 1.236.998 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.140.961 1.151.349 1.168.909 1.194.493 1.230.477 1.279.102 1.271.209 1.265.176 1.261.507 1.260.968 1.263.283 1.248.819 1.236.998 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.140.961 1.151.349 1.168.909 1.194.493 1.230.477 1.279.102 1.271.209 1.265.176 1.261.507 1.260.968 1.263.283 1.248.819 1.236.998 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.140.961 1.151.349 1.168.909 1.194.493 1.230.477 1.279.102 1.271.209 1.265.176 1.261.507 1.260.968 1.263.283 1.248.819 1.236.998
FI Baseline 66.471 70.462 76.644 85.740 98.799 117.000 116.958 117.126 117.521 118.198 118.820 118.207 117.898 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 66.471 70.462 76.644 85.740 98.799 117.000 116.958 117.126 117.521 118.198 118.820 118.207 117.898 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 66.471 70.462 76.644 85.740 98.799 117.000 116.958 117.126 117.521 118.198 118.820 118.207 117.898 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 66.471 70.462 76.644 85.740 98.799 117.000 116.958 117.126 117.521 118.198 118.820 118.207 117.898
FR Baseline 1.546.932 1.563.018 1.588.328 1.624.514 1.672.749 1.737.916 1.772.602 1.812.159 1.855.585 1.905.929 1.961.893 2.003.464 2.049.283 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.546.932 1.563.018 1.588.328 1.624.514 1.672.749 1.737.916 1.772.602 1.812.159 1.855.585 1.905.929 1.961.893 2.003.464 2.049.283 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.546.932 1.563.018 1.588.328 1.624.514 1.672.749 1.737.916 1.772.602 1.812.159 1.855.585 1.905.929 1.961.893 2.003.464 2.049.283 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.546.932 1.563.018 1.588.328 1.624.514 1.672.749 1.737.916 1.772.602 1.812.159 1.855.585 1.905.929 1.961.893 2.003.464 2.049.283
GR Baseline 12.055 13.234 14.527 15.948 17.507 19.219 19.800 20.399 21.017 21.653 22.308 22.207 22.132 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 12.055 13.234 14.527 15.948 17.507 19.219 19.800 20.399 21.017 21.653 22.308 22.207 22.132 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 12.055 13.234 14.527 15.948 17.507 19.219 19.800 20.399 21.017 21.653 22.308 22.207 22.132 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 12.055 13.234 14.527 15.948 17.507 19.219 19.800 20.399 21.017 21.653 22.308 22.207 22.132
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 44.810 43.918 43.422 43.056 42.833 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 44.810 43.918 43.422 43.056 42.833 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 44.810 43.918 43.422 43.056 42.833 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 51.015 44.810 43.918 43.422 43.056 42.833
IE Baseline 49.068 48.929 49.479 50.838 53.330 56.988 56.639 56.640 56.973 57.726 58.726 58.978 59.465 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 49.068 48.929 49.479 50.838 53.330 56.988 56.639 56.640 56.973 57.726 58.726 58.978 59.465 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 49.068 48.929 49.479 50.838 53.330 56.988 56.639 56.640 56.973 57.726 58.726 58.978 59.465 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 49.068 48.929 49.479 50.838 53.330 56.988 56.639 56.640 56.973 57.726 58.726 58.978 59.465
IT Baseline 1.643.641 1.684.192 1.738.014 1.806.604 1.893.318 1.996.568 1.955.812 1.916.205 1.878.070 1.842.614 1.809.502 1.789.365 1.772.517 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.643.641 1.684.192 1.738.014 1.806.604 1.893.318 1.996.568 1.955.812 1.916.205 1.878.070 1.842.614 1.809.502 1.789.365 1.772.517 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.643.641 1.684.192 1.738.014 1.806.604 1.893.318 1.996.568 1.955.812 1.916.205 1.878.070 1.842.614 1.809.502 1.789.365 1.772.517 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.643.641 1.684.192 1.738.014 1.806.604 1.893.318 1.996.568 1.955.812 1.916.205 1.878.070 1.842.614 1.809.502 1.789.365 1.772.517
LU Baseline 15.356 17.819 20.971 24.805 29.514 35.848 39.391 42.916 46.422 49.857 53.051 55.894 58.547 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 15.356 17.819 20.971 24.805 29.514 35.848 39.391 42.916 46.422 49.857 53.051 55.894 58.547 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 15.356 17.819 20.971 24.805 29.514 35.848 39.391 42.916 46.422 49.857 53.051 55.894 58.547 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 15.356 17.819 20.971 24.805 29.514 35.848 39.391 42.916 46.422 49.857 53.051 55.894 58.547
NL Baseline 255.185 254.238 255.307257.823 261.967 269.108 270.307 272.020 274.295 277.487 281.264 286.366 292.901 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 255.185 254.238 255.307 257.823 261.967 269.108 270.307 272.020 274.295 277.487 281.264 286.366 292.901 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 255.185 254.238 255.307 257.823 261.967 269.108 270.307 272.020 274.295 277.487 281.264 286.366 292.901 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 255.185 254.238 255.307 257.823 261.967 269.108 270.307 272.020 274.295 277.487 281.264 286.366 292.901
PL Baseline 213.000 213.000 213.000213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 191.761 192.204 194.128 194.901 196.576 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 191.761 192.204 194.128 194.901 196.576 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 191.761 192.204 194.128 194.901 196.576 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 213.000 191.761 192.204 194.128 194.901 196.576
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 91.049 95.320 100.059105.327 111.142 117.706 120.023 122.391 124.785 127.254 129.833 129.801 129.930 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 91.049 95.320 100.059 105.327 111.142 117.706 120.023 122.391 124.785 127.254 129.833 129.801 129.930 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 91.049 95.320 100.059 105.327 111.142 117.706 120.023 122.391 124.785 127.254 129.833 129.801 129.930 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 91.049 95.320 100.059 105.327 111.142 117.706 120.023 122.391 124.785 127.254 129.833 129.801 129.930
SE Baseline 43.791 44.158 44.933 46.118 47.847 51.017 53.004 55.186 57.576 60.244 62.915 65.182 67.828 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 43.791 44.158 44.933 46.118 47.847 51.017 53.004 55.186 57.576 60.244 62.915 65.182 67.828 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 43.791 44.158 44.933 46.118 47.847 51.017 53.004 55.186 57.576 60.244 62.915 65.182 67.828 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 43.791 44.158 44.933 46.118 47.847 51.017 53.004 55.186 57.576 60.244 62.915 65.182 67.828
SI Baseline 8.596 8.596 8.596 8.596 8.596 8.596 7.960 8.042 8.199 8.419 8.709 9.123 9.617 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.596 8.596 8.596 8.596 8.596 8.596 7.960 8.042 8.199 8.419 8.709 9.123 9.617 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.596 8.596 8.596 8.596 8.596 8.596 7.960 8.042 8.199 8.419 8.709 9.123 9.617 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.596 8.596 8.596 8.596 8.596 8.596 7.960 8.042 8.199 8.419 8.709 9.123 9.617
UK Baseline 690.180 671.775 656.918645.892 639.178 643.580 643.664 647.110 655.966 670.442 688.536 705.824 725.887 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 690.180 671.775 656.918 645.892 639.178 643.580 643.664 647.110 655.966 670.442 688.536 705.824 725.887 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 690.180 671.775 656.918 645.892 639.178 643.580 643.664 647.110 655.966 670.442 688.536 705.824 725.887 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 690.180 671.775 656.918 645.892 639.178 643.580 643.664 647.110 655.966 670.442 688.536 705.824 725.887
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 10.964.840 11.204.069 11.475.383 11.563.851 11.653.164 11.741.319 11.827.302 11.910.848 11.995.429 12.081.299 12.168.940 12.259.525 12.354.381 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.964.839 11.204.068 11.496.018 11.814.646 12.159.456 12.524.792 12.909.586 13.312.412 13.735.913 14.179.560 14.642.797 15.125.841 15.629.783 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.964.839 11.204.068 11.495.170 11.811.033 12.152.599 12.511.085 12.888.798 13.284.509 13.700.870 14.137.438 14.593.782 15.070.212 15.567.875 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.964.839 11.204.068 11.499.216 11.821.066 12.169.949 12.538.851 12.927.508 13.334.637 13.763.231 14.212.734 14.682.436 15.172.389 15.683.409
EU15 Baseline 9.991.497 10.193.575 10.423.345 10.498.811 10.575.682 10.652.492 10.728.240 10.802.442 10.878.046 10.955.145 11.034.046 11.115.675 11.201.073 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.991.497 10.193.575 10.441.120 10.714.777 11.012.121 11.328.994 11.664.926 12.018.675 12.392.574 12.785.896 13.197.816 13.628.170 14.077.587 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.991.497 10.193.575 10.440.521 10.712.123 11.007.286 11.318.795 11.649.136 11.997.208 12.365.315 12.752.815 13.159.008 13.583.843 14.028.018 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.991.497 10.193.575 10.444.052 10.720.807 11.022.121 11.342.661 11.682.528 12.040.574 12.419.410 12.818.285 13.236.240 13.673.006 14.128.995
EU10 Baseline 973.342 1.010.494 1.052.038 1.065.041 1.077.482 1.088.827 1.099.062 1.108.407 1.117.384 1.126.155 1.134.894 1.143.850 1.153.308 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 973.342 1.010.493 1.054.899 1.099.870 1.147.334 1.195.798 1.244.661 1.293.737 1.343.339 1.393.664 1.444.981 1.497.671 1.552.196 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 973.342 1.010.493 1.054.648 1.098.910 1.145.313 1.192.289 1.239.661 1.287.301 1.335.555 1.384.623 1.434.774 1.486.369 1.539.856 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 973.342 1.010.493 1.055.164 1.100.260 1.147.828 1.196.190 1.244.980 1.294.064 1.343.821 1.394.449 1.446.196 1.499.382 1.554.414
AT Baseline 413.514 433.471 455.225 463.686 471.491 478.295 483.943 488.465 492.117 495.134 497.741 500.157 502.593 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 413.514 433.471 456.204 479.150 503.157 526.880 550.121 572.793 595.122 617.376 639.861 662.879 686.773 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 413.514 433.471 456.178 478.876 502.424 525.416 547.909 569.833 591.427 612.967 634.771 657.142 680.416 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 413.514 433.471 456.266 479.188 503.132 526.800 550.001 572.651 594.993 617.293 639.855 662.979 686.995
BE Baseline 403.807 420.079 437.169 437.408 437.466 437.455 437.473 437.620 438.076 438.921 440.228 442.069 444.493 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 403.806 420.079 438.367 455.297 473.491 492.199 511.294 530.691 550.404 570.450 590.868 611.748 633.176 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 403.806 420.079 438.291 454.917 472.619 490.650 509.068 527.816 546.933 566.435 586.366 606.807 627.837 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 403.806 420.079 438.435 455.298 473.351 491.836 510.716 529.936 549.560 569.600 590.088 611.069 632.606
CZ Baseline 91.404 92.375 93.687 94.170 94.894 95.819 96.879 97.955 99.054 100.154 101.312 102.620 104.154 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 91.404 92.375 93.596 93.967 94.506 95.273 96.220 97.245 98.353 99.546 100.919 102.619 104.796 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 91.404 92.375 93.545 93.836 94.281 94.942 95.781 96.702 97.708 98.804 100.085 101.699 103.794 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 91.404 92.375 93.623 94.027 94.621 95.441 96.439 97.513 98.676 99.935 101.389 103.192 105.492
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 2.535.334 2.616.152 2.702.365 2.734.714 2.766.294 2.796.984 2.826.654 2.855.197 2.883.540 2.911.853 2.940.321 2.969.314 2.999.230 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.535.334 2.616.152 2.709.988 2.804.284 2.903.082 3.005.848 3.112.628 3.223.262 3.338.866 3.459.582 3.585.453 3.716.753 3.853.831 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.535.334 2.616.152 2.710.051 2.804.153 2.902.894 3.004.410 3.109.860 3.219.091 3.333.236 3.452.421 3.576.719 3.706.440 3.841.956 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.535.334 2.616.152 2.711.119 2.806.601 2.906.891 3.010.998 3.119.234 3.231.434 3.348.729 3.471.279 3.599.092 3.732.422 3.871.558
DK Baseline 39.165 39.971 41.315 41.507 41.967 42.707 43.655 44.659 45.570 46.290 46.814 47.190 47.487 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 39.165 39.971 41.597 43.283 45.490 48.303 51.600 55.126 58.580 61.707 64.391 66.662 68.682 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 39.165 39.971 41.567 43.192 45.303 47.992 51.151 54.527 57.829 60.812 63.370 65.536 67.469 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 39.165 39.971 41.601 43.286 45.496 48.294 51.572 55.075 58.507 61.616 64.289 66.558 68.584
ES Baseline 1.228.351 1.223.371 1.222.618 1.221.071 1.222.274 1.226.265 1.232.999 1.242.340 1.254.404 1.268.906 1.285.514 1.303.849 1.323.528 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.228.351 1.223.371 1.222.976 1.230.656 1.242.752 1.259.507 1.281.198 1.307.854 1.339.710 1.376.620 1.418.336 1.464.516 1.514.779 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.228.351 1.223.371 1.222.851 1.230.229 1.241.932 1.258.039 1.279.028 1.304.935 1.335.970 1.372.005 1.412.805 1.458.044 1.507.361 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.228.351 1.223.371 1.223.136 1.231.016 1.243.396 1.260.429 1.282.408 1.309.371 1.341.594 1.378.929 1.421.127 1.467.842 1.518.692
FI Baseline 118.032 118.750 120.229120.659 121.401 122.587 124.316 126.568 129.215 131.972 134.589 136.981 139.178 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 118.032 118.750 120.694 124.436 129.263 135.589 143.723 153.738 165.366 177.819 190.100 201.357 211.096 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 118.032 118.750 120.665 124.336 129.043 135.192 143.088 152.792 164.038 176.056 187.888 198.724 208.109 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 118.032 118.750 120.712 124.488 129.361 135.714 143.867 153.897 165.536 178.002 190.302 201.582 211.352
FR Baseline 2.099.328 2.153.404 2.211.500 2.242.993 2.273.216 2.301.857 2.328.660 2.353.592 2.377.278 2.399.945 2.421.942 2.443.700 2.465.721 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.099.328 2.153.404 2.213.326 2.284.338 2.359.460 2.437.373 2.518.070 2.601.372 2.687.686 2.777.151 2.869.924 2.966.229 3.066.414 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.099.328 2.153.404 2.213.285 2.284.047 2.358.960 2.436.246 2.516.307 2.599.011 2.684.742 2.773.650 2.865.906 2.961.741 3.061.504 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.099.328 2.153.404 2.213.827 2.285.395 2.361.241 2.439.963 2.521.536 2.605.806 2.693.246 2.783.944 2.878.034 2.975.704 3.077.277
GR Baseline 22.084 22.062 22.066 22.368 22.674 22.986 23.302 23.624 23.951 24.283 24.621 24.964 25.313 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 22.084 22.062 22.066 22.374 22.694 23.021 23.353 23.690 24.030 24.375 24.724 25.078 25.437 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 22.084 22.062 22.066 22.374 22.693 23.021 23.355 23.694 24.036 24.384 24.735 25.092 25.452 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 22.084 22.062 22.066 22.373 22.691 23.014 23.343 23.676 24.014 24.356 24.703 25.054 25.410
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 42.671 42.540 42.474 41.853 41.244 40.703 40.250 39.858 39.520 39.179 38.800 38.383 37.974 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 42.671 42.540 42.456 41.882 41.307 40.840 40.514 40.316 40.267 40.339 40.528 40.850 41.337 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 42.671 42.540 42.424 41.801 41.167 40.638 40.249 39.988 39.869 39.863 39.968 40.200 40.594 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 42.671 42.540 42.472 41.913 41.362 40.916 40.613 40.440 40.422 40.532 40.770 41.150 41.699
IE Baseline 60.217 61.240 62.544 62.958 63.485 64.116 64.844 65.657 66.578 67.606 68.737 69.977 71.331 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 60.217 61.240 62.825 65.402 68.300 71.469 74.906 78.589 82.538 86.739 91.176 95.843 100.741 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 60.217 61.240 62.823 65.393 68.284 71.422 74.830 78.482 82.399 86.566 90.968 95.601 100.465 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 60.217 61.240 62.843 65.447 68.380 71.587 75.066 78.792 82.787 87.039 91.530 96.255 101.213
IT Baseline 1.759.435 1.750.478 1.746.117 1.722.686 1.701.305 1.681.920 1.664.390 1.648.542 1.634.554 1.622.229 1.611.307 1.601.611 1.592.896 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.759.435 1.750.478 1.747.298 1.743.364 1.744.401 1.750.011 1.760.122 1.774.484 1.793.132 1.815.753 1.841.956 1.871.322 1.903.475 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.759.435 1.750.478 1.747.317 1.743.370 1.744.563 1.750.148 1.760.216 1.774.541 1.793.124 1.815.679 1.841.821 1.871.152 1.903.302 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.759.435 1.750.478 1.747.627 1.744.066 1.745.570 1.751.648 1.762.250 1.777.149 1.796.428 1.819.779 1.846.775 1.877.018 1.910.083
LU Baseline 61.078 63.560 66.067 65.141 64.117 63.090 62.177 61.499 61.170 61.242 61.702 62.479 63.470 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 61.078 63.560 66.327 68.966 71.775 74.595 77.484 80.428 83.436 86.508 89.652 92.875 96.187 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 61.078 63.560 66.342 68.963 71.734 74.450 77.237 80.083 83.001 85.992 89.066 92.231 95.494 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 61.078 63.560 66.352 69.009 71.844 74.698 77.619 80.593 83.630 86.727 89.891 93.131 96.455
NL Baseline 301.298 311.835 324.483331.981 339.029 345.116 350.217 354.558 358.508 362.234 365.818 369.327 372.839 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 301.298 311.835 325.167 339.582 354.323 368.890 383.061 396.963 411.019 425.563 440.849 457.055 474.329 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 301.298 311.835 325.083 339.314 353.816 368.026 381.856 395.451 409.233 423.529 438.578 454.544 471.570 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 301.298 311.835 325.299 339.877 354.842 369.575 383.928 398.041 412.340 427.159 442.741 459.254 476.830
PL Baseline 198.739 201.182 204.030205.578 207.288 209.204 211.227 213.130 215.080 217.086 219.228 221.727 224.801 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 198.739 201.182 203.610 204.436 205.071 205.918 206.903 207.792 208.679 209.549 210.507 211.850 213.957 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 198.739 201.182 203.475 204.157 204.713 205.456 206.340 207.135 207.934 208.723 209.604 210.874 212.905 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 198.739 201.182 203.769 204.851 205.875 207.105 208.470 209.743 211.061 212.435 213.986 216.012 218.853
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 130.241 130.752 131.480134.032 136.675 139.347 141.965 144.448 146.763 148.913 150.926 152.828 154.627 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 130.241 130.752 131.483 134.602 137.978 141.528 145.187 148.881 152.563 156.234 159.922 163.680 167.561 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 130.241 130.752 131.470 134.529 137.786 141.203 144.740 148.325 151.905 155.479 159.072 162.736 166.521 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 130.241 130.752 131.478 134.556 137.840 141.296 144.869 148.489 152.110 155.728 159.371 163.087 166.929
SE Baseline 70.952 74.630 78.952 81.577 84.365 87.282 90.238 93.091 95.719 98.009 99.947 101.597 103.068 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 70.952 74.630 79.417 84.640 90.306 96.444 102.914 109.521 116.085 122.417 128.443 134.209 139.858 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 70.952 74.630 79.372 84.501 90.028 95.980 102.243 108.626 114.953 121.044 126.835 132.380 137.823 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 70.952 74.630 79.434 84.665 90.335 96.452 102.897 109.480 116.020 122.333 128.349 134.116 139.774
SI Baseline 10.182 10.804 11.480 12.126 12.770 13.397 13.990 14.529 15.016 15.455 15.862 16.251 16.629 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.182 10.804 11.486 12.235 13.000 13.778 14.550 15.295 16.011 16.700 17.381 18.078 18.811 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.182 10.804 11.481 12.222 12.979 13.745 14.504 15.236 15.940 16.619 17.291 17.982 18.710 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.182 10.804 11.491 12.249 13.026 13.816 14.601 15.357 16.086 16.787 17.481 18.193 18.942
UK Baseline 748.661 773.821 801.213816.030 829.924 842.485 853.406 862.581 870.601 877.606 883.838 889.633 895.298 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 748.661 773.821 803.385 834.403 865.649 897.337 929.265 961.284 994.036 1.027.603 1.062.160 1.097.964 1.135.247 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 748.661 773.821 803.160 833.927 865.208 896.598 928.247 960.000 992.489 1.025.797 1.060.104 1.095.674 1.132.738 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 748.661 773.821 803.857 835.541 867.751 900.358 933.221 966.184 999.917 1.034.501 1.070.093 1.106.935 1.145.238
stock of small cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 87.193.779 85.136.754 83.066.674 81.190.633 79.362.253 77.472.744 78.388.507 79.334.581 80.325.339 81.343.377 82.533.873 83.387.387 84.278.396 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 87.193.779 85.136.754 83.066.674 81.190.633 79.362.253 77.472.744 78.388.507 79.334.581 80.325.339 81.343.377 82.533.874 83.387.387 84.278.396 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 87.193.779 85.136.754 83.066.674 81.190.633 79.362.253 77.472.744 78.388.507 79.334.581 80.325.339 81.343.377 82.533.874 83.387.387 84.278.396 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 87.193.779 85.136.754 83.066.674 81.190.633 79.362.253 77.472.744 78.388.507 79.334.581 80.325.339 81.343.377 82.533.874 83.387.387 84.278.396
EU15 Baseline 77.249.584 75.277.258 73.328.513 71.496.360 69.727.714 67.976.882 68.823.129 69.691.728 70.589.366 71.508.421 72.514.518 73.294.593 74.103.800 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 77.249.584 75.277.258 73.328.513 71.496.360 69.727.714 67.976.882 68.823.129 69.691.728 70.589.366 71.508.421 72.514.519 73.294.593 74.103.800 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 77.249.584 75.277.258 73.328.513 71.496.360 69.727.714 67.976.882 68.823.129 69.691.728 70.589.366 71.508.421 72.514.519 73.294.593 74.103.800 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 77.249.584 75.277.258 73.328.513 71.496.360 69.727.714 67.976.882 68.823.129 69.691.728 70.589.366 71.508.421 72.514.519 73.294.593 74.103.800
EU10 Baseline 9.944.195 9.859.497 9.738.162 9.694.274 9.634.539 9.495.863 9.565.378 9.642.853 9.735.973 9.834.956 10.019.355 10.092.794 10.174.596 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.944.195 9.859.497 9.738.162 9.694.274 9.634.539 9.495.863 9.565.378 9.642.853 9.735.973 9.834.956 10.019.356 10.092.794 10.174.596 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.944.195 9.859.497 9.738.162 9.694.274 9.634.539 9.495.863 9.565.378 9.642.853 9.735.973 9.834.956 10.019.356 10.092.794 10.174.596 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.944.195 9.859.497 9.738.162 9.694.274 9.634.539 9.495.863 9.565.378 9.642.853 9.735.973 9.834.956 10.019.356 10.092.794 10.174.596
AT Baseline 1.213.918 1.129.748 1.048.046 968.764 891.441 815.327 825.346 835.489 845.756 856.150 866.671 878.466 890.727 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.213.918 1.129.748 1.048.046 968.764 891.441 815.327 825.346 835.489 845.756 856.150 866.671 878.466 890.727 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.213.918 1.129.748 1.048.046 968.764 891.441 815.327 825.346 835.489 845.756 856.150 866.671 878.466 890.727 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.213.918 1.129.748 1.048.046 968.764 891.441 815.327 825.346 835.489 845.756 856.150 866.671 878.466 890.727
BE Baseline 1.908.241 1.902.894 1.858.182 1.867.798 1.855.362 1.769.240 1.705.813 1.646.120 1.596.390 1.548.528 1.567.690 1.589.150 1.611.118 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.908.241 1.902.894 1.858.182 1.867.798 1.855.362 1.769.240 1.705.813 1.646.120 1.596.390 1.548.528 1.567.690 1.589.150 1.611.118 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.908.241 1.902.894 1.858.182 1.867.798 1.855.362 1.769.240 1.705.813 1.646.120 1.596.390 1.548.528 1.567.690 1.589.150 1.611.118 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.908.241 1.902.894 1.858.182 1.867.798 1.855.362 1.769.240 1.705.813 1.646.120 1.596.390 1.548.528 1.567.690 1.589.150 1.611.118
CZ Baseline 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.124.766 2.183.649 2.250.186 2.321.314 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.124.766 2.183.649 2.250.186 2.321.314 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.124.766 2.183.649 2.250.186 2.321.314 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.067.471 2.124.766 2.183.649 2.250.186 2.321.314
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 13.063.863 12.980.159 12.897.563 12.816.002 12.735.405 12.655.702 12.795.240 12.936.315 13.078.946 13.223.150 13.368.943 13.586.649 13.809.117 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.063.863 12.980.159 12.897.563 12.816.002 12.735.405 12.655.703 12.795.240 12.936.315 13.078.946 13.223.150 13.368.943 13.586.649 13.809.117 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.063.863 12.980.159 12.897.563 12.816.002 12.735.405 12.655.703 12.795.240 12.936.315 13.078.946 13.223.150 13.368.943 13.586.649 13.809.117 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.063.863 12.980.159 12.897.563 12.816.002 12.735.405 12.655.703 12.795.240 12.936.315 13.078.946 13.223.150 13.368.943 13.586.649 13.809.117
DK Baseline 934.944 885.514 838.697794.355 752.357 712.580 716.785 721.015 725.270 729.550 733.855 733.751 735.305 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 934.944 885.514 838.697 794.355 752.357 712.580 716.785 721.015 725.270 729.550 733.855 733.751 735.305 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 934.944 885.514 838.697 794.355 752.357 712.580 716.785 721.015 725.270 729.550 733.855 733.751 735.305 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 934.944 885.514 838.697 794.355 752.357 712.580 716.785 721.015 725.270 729.550 733.855 733.751 735.305
ES Baseline 7.926.809 7.583.619 7.223.685 6.848.685 6.484.428 6.139.543 6.341.838 6.550.797 6.766.641 6.989.599 7.219.902 7.324.429 7.433.456 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.926.809 7.583.619 7.223.685 6.848.685 6.484.428 6.139.543 6.341.838 6.550.797 6.766.641 6.989.599 7.219.902 7.324.429 7.433.456 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.926.809 7.583.619 7.223.685 6.848.685 6.484.428 6.139.543 6.341.838 6.550.797 6.766.641 6.989.599 7.219.902 7.324.429 7.433.456 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.926.809 7.583.619 7.223.685 6.848.685 6.484.428 6.139.543 6.341.838 6.550.797 6.766.641 6.989.599 7.219.902 7.324.429 7.433.456
FI Baseline 1.207.736 1.147.118 1.083.637 1.018.208 951.857 885.585 897.599 909.776 922.118 934.628 947.308 950.799 955.547 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.207.736 1.147.118 1.083.637 1.018.208 951.857 885.585 897.599 909.776 922.118 934.628 947.308 950.799 955.547 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.207.736 1.147.118 1.083.637 1.018.208 951.857 885.585 897.599 909.776 922.118 934.628 947.308 950.799 955.547 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.207.736 1.147.118 1.083.637 1.018.208 951.857 885.585 897.599 909.776 922.118 934.628 947.308 950.799 955.547
FR Baseline 11.552.518 11.304.393 11.070.720 10.849.620 10.639.179 10.437.449 10.614.508 10.794.569 10.977.685 11.163.909 11.353.290 11.447.563 11.544.366 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.552.518 11.304.393 11.070.720 10.849.620 10.639.179 10.437.449 10.614.508 10.794.569 10.977.685 11.163.909 11.353.290 11.447.563 11.544.366 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.552.518 11.304.393 11.070.720 10.849.620 10.639.179 10.437.449 10.614.508 10.794.569 10.977.685 11.163.909 11.353.290 11.447.563 11.544.366 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.552.518 11.304.393 11.070.720 10.849.620 10.639.179 10.437.449 10.614.508 10.794.569 10.977.685 11.163.909 11.353.290 11.447.563 11.544.366
GR Baseline 1.837.176 1.916.328 1.998.891 2.085.010 2.174.840 2.268.540 2.337.193 2.407.923 2.480.794 2.555.870 2.633.218 2.621.327 2.612.513 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.837.176 1.916.328 1.998.891 2.085.010 2.174.840 2.268.540 2.337.193 2.407.923 2.480.794 2.555.870 2.633.218 2.621.327 2.612.513 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.837.176 1.916.328 1.998.891 2.085.010 2.174.840 2.268.540 2.337.193 2.407.923 2.480.794 2.555.870 2.633.218 2.621.327 2.612.513 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.837.176 1.916.328 1.998.891 2.085.010 2.174.840 2.268.540 2.337.193 2.407.923 2.480.794 2.555.870 2.633.218 2.621.327 2.612.513
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.711.519 1.748.419 1.786.115 1.823.269 1.865.640 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.711.519 1.748.419 1.786.115 1.823.269 1.865.640 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.711.519 1.748.419 1.786.115 1.823.269 1.865.640 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.675.398 1.711.519 1.748.419 1.786.115 1.823.269 1.865.640
IE Baseline 589.116 602.347 615.875629.706 643.849 658.309 680.413 703.260 726.874 751.281 776.507 789.321 802.464 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 589.116 602.347 615.875 629.706 643.849 658.309 680.413 703.260 726.874 751.281 776.507 789.321 802.464 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 589.116 602.347 615.875 629.706 643.849 658.309 680.413 703.260 726.874 751.281 776.507 789.321 802.464 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 589.116 602.347 615.875 629.706 643.849 658.309 680.413 703.260 726.874 751.281 776.507 789.321 802.464
IT Baseline 21.728.539 20.915.903 20.133.660 19.380.670 18.655.844 17.958.125 17.994.203 18.030.353 18.066.575 18.102.871 18.139.240 18.293.356 18.449.888 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 21.728.539 20.915.903 20.133.660 19.380.670 18.655.844 17.958.125 17.994.203 18.030.353 18.066.575 18.102.871 18.139.240 18.293.356 18.449.888 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 21.728.539 20.915.903 20.133.660 19.380.670 18.655.844 17.958.125 17.994.203 18.030.353 18.066.575 18.102.871 18.139.240 18.293.356 18.449.888 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 21.728.539 20.915.903 20.133.660 19.380.670 18.655.844 17.958.125 17.994.203 18.030.353 18.066.575 18.102.871 18.139.240 18.293.356 18.449.888
LU Baseline 78.424 67.288 57.732 49.534 42.500 36.465 37.007 37.557 38.115 38.681 39.256 39.747 40.252 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 78.424 67.288 57.732 49.534 42.500 36.465 37.007 37.557 38.115 38.681 39.256 39.747 40.252 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 78.424 67.288 57.732 49.534 42.500 36.465 37.007 37.557 38.115 38.681 39.256 39.747 40.252 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 78.424 67.288 57.732 49.534 42.500 36.465 37.007 37.557 38.115 38.681 39.256 39.747 40.252
NL Baseline 3.041.538 2.977.156 2.914.136 2.852.451 2.792.072 2.732.970 2.770.808 2.809.170 2.848.063 2.887.494 2.927.471 2.970.352 3.014.382 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.041.538 2.977.156 2.914.136 2.852.451 2.792.072 2.732.970 2.770.808 2.809.170 2.848.063 2.887.494 2.927.471 2.970.352 3.014.382 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.041.538 2.977.156 2.914.136 2.852.451 2.792.072 2.732.970 2.770.808 2.809.170 2.848.063 2.887.494 2.927.471 2.970.352 3.014.382 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.041.538 2.977.156 2.914.136 2.852.451 2.792.072 2.732.970 2.770.808 2.809.170 2.848.063 2.887.494 2.927.471 2.970.352 3.014.382
PL Baseline 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 6.181.147 6.476.787 6.786.570 7.000.981 7.227.346 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 6.181.147 6.476.787 6.786.570 7.000.981 7.227.346 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 6.181.147 6.476.787 6.786.570 7.000.981 7.227.346 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 5.899.000 6.181.147 6.476.787 6.786.570 7.000.981 7.227.346
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 1.261.940 1.368.193 1.483.392 1.608.291 1.743.706 1.890.523 1.921.629 1.953.246 1.985.384 2.018.051 2.051.255 2.043.432 2.036.105 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.261.940 1.368.193 1.483.392 1.608.291 1.743.706 1.890.523 1.921.629 1.953.246 1.985.384 2.018.051 2.051.255 2.043.432 2.036.105 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.261.940 1.368.193 1.483.392 1.608.291 1.743.706 1.890.523 1.921.629 1.953.246 1.985.384 2.018.051 2.051.255 2.043.432 2.036.105 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.261.940 1.368.193 1.483.392 1.608.291 1.743.706 1.890.523 1.921.629 1.953.246 1.985.384 2.018.051 2.051.255 2.043.432 2.036.105
SE Baseline 1.367.285 1.288.409 1.214.083 1.144.045 1.078.048 1.015.857 1.029.796 1.043.927 1.058.251 1.072.772 1.087.492 1.095.261 1.105.155 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.367.285 1.288.409 1.214.083 1.144.045 1.078.048 1.015.857 1.029.796 1.043.927 1.058.251 1.072.772 1.087.492 1.095.261 1.105.155 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.367.285 1.288.409 1.214.083 1.144.045 1.078.048 1.015.857 1.029.796 1.043.927 1.058.251 1.072.772 1.087.492 1.095.261 1.105.155 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.367.285 1.288.409 1.214.083 1.144.045 1.078.048 1.015.857 1.029.796 1.043.927 1.058.251 1.072.772 1.087.492 1.095.261 1.105.155
SI Baseline 504.210 504.210 504.210504.210 504.210 504.210 510.923 517.726 524.619 531.604 538.682 548.567 559.382 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 510.923 517.726 524.619 531.604 538.681 548.567 559.382 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 510.923 517.726 524.619 531.604 538.681 548.567 559.382 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 504.210 510.923 517.726 524.619 531.604 538.681 548.567 559.382
UK Baseline 9.537.537 9.208.189 8.890.214 8.583.219 8.286.826 8.000.666 8.154.951 8.312.211 8.472.505 8.635.888 8.802.422 8.930.989 9.063.404 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.537.537 9.208.189 8.890.214 8.583.219 8.286.826 8.000.666 8.154.951 8.312.211 8.472.505 8.635.888 8.802.422 8.930.989 9.063.404 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.537.537 9.208.189 8.890.214 8.583.219 8.286.826 8.000.666 8.154.951 8.312.211 8.472.505 8.635.888 8.802.422 8.930.989 9.063.404 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.537.537 9.208.189 8.890.214 8.583.219 8.286.826 8.000.666 8.154.951 8.312.211 8.472.505 8.635.888 8.802.422 8.930.989 9.063.404
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 85.208.476 86.179.589 87.194.238 88.299.085 89.422.245 90.564.071 91.724.922 92.905.162 94.105.173 95.325.337 96.566.047 97.827.700 99.110.714 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 85.208.475 86.179.588 87.194.235 88.357.179 89.528.673 90.709.388 91.903.738 93.112.071 94.348.624 95.609.360 96.895.205 98.208.606 99.549.435 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 85.208.475 86.179.588 87.194.235 88.290.025 89.312.109 90.238.802 91.174.509 92.114.640 93.084.486 94.074.276 95.088.767 96.133.502 97.211.577 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 85.208.475 86.179.588 87.194.235 88.306.341 89.382.318 90.431.592 91.495.997 92.574.656 93.680.578 94.810.323 95.966.523 97.152.512 98.369.435
EU15 Baseline 74.943.447 75.815.138 76.720.906 77.684.089 78.663.328 79.658.939 80.671.237 81.700.548 82.747.209 83.811.561 84.893.949 85.994.733 87.114.277 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 74.943.447 75.815.138 76.720.905 77.734.835 78.756.049 79.784.275 80.823.369 81.873.582 82.947.759 84.042.447 85.158.909 86.299.610 87.464.687 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 74.943.447 75.815.138 76.720.905 77.673.176 78.557.288 79.352.699 80.155.376 80.961.323 81.793.494 82.643.566 83.516.252 84.416.611 85.347.446 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 74.943.447 75.815.138 76.720.905 77.688.223 78.622.013 79.529.963 80.450.556 81.383.078 82.339.362 83.316.477 84.317.102 85.344.333 86.399.277
EU10 Baseline 10.265.029 10.364.451 10.473.332 10.614.996 10.758.917 10.905.132 11.053.684 11.204.614 11.357.964 11.513.777 11.672.097 11.832.967 11.996.437 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.265.029 10.364.450 10.473.330 10.622.344 10.772.624 10.925.113 11.080.369 11.238.489 11.400.865 11.566.913 11.736.295 11.908.996 12.084.748 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.265.029 10.364.450 10.473.330 10.616.849 10.754.821 10.886.103 11.019.134 11.153.317 11.290.992 11.430.710 11.572.515 11.716.891 11.864.131 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.265.029 10.364.450 10.473.330 10.618.118 10.760.305 10.901.629 11.045.441 11.191.578 11.341.216 11.493.846 11.649.421 11.808.180 11.970.157
AT Baseline 903.468 916.701 930.442 942.797 955.352 968.112 981.079 994.258 1.007.653 1.021.269 1.035.108 1.049.177 1.063.479 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 903.468 916.701 930.442 945.143 959.136 973.188 987.366 1.001.771 1.016.541 1.031.721 1.047.236 1.063.086 1.079.156 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 903.468 916.701 930.442 944.614 957.544 969.932 982.454 995.057 1.007.828 1.020.663 1.033.455 1.046.247 1.059.025 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 903.468 916.701 930.442 944.675 957.859 970.833 983.958 997.273 1.010.830 1.024.647 1.038.648 1.052.860 1.067.219
BE Baseline 1.633.609 1.656.638 1.680.220 1.697.700 1.715.396 1.733.312 1.751.450 1.769.814 1.788.408 1.807.235 1.826.300 1.845.605 1.865.155 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.633.609 1.656.637 1.680.219 1.699.259 1.716.154 1.732.338 1.748.996 1.766.273 1.784.526 1.803.588 1.823.244 1.843.488 1.864.222 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.633.609 1.656.637 1.680.219 1.697.078 1.709.407 1.718.233 1.727.580 1.737.319 1.748.023 1.759.290 1.770.996 1.783.310 1.796.270 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.633.609 1.656.637 1.680.219 1.698.026 1.712.789 1.726.210 1.740.132 1.754.573 1.769.824 1.785.727 1.802.176 1.819.276 1.837.008
CZ Baseline 2.397.340 2.478.596 2.565.440 2.623.024 2.682.018 2.742.459 2.804.383 2.867.830 2.932.839 2.999.452 3.067.709 3.137.653 3.209.330 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.397.340 2.478.596 2.565.440 2.623.598 2.683.045 2.743.353 2.805.007 2.868.003 2.932.914 2.999.323 3.067.191 3.136.351 3.206.611 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.397.340 2.478.596 2.565.440 2.621.214 2.676.339 2.729.370 2.783.738 2.839.173 2.896.434 2.954.420 3.012.679 3.070.461 3.127.245 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.397.340 2.478.596 2.565.440 2.621.931 2.678.834 2.735.691 2.793.900 2.853.372 2.914.544 2.976.872 3.040.148 3.104.014 3.168.235
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 14.036.479 14.268.873 14.506.441 14.720.510 14.938.137 15.159.390 15.384.338 15.613.055 15.845.613 16.082.089 16.322.558 16.567.100 16.815.794 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.036.479 14.268.873 14.506.441 14.730.610 14.952.106 15.170.641 15.392.856 15.619.262 15.851.826 16.090.001 16.333.736 16.583.429 16.839.054 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.036.479 14.268.873 14.506.441 14.710.436 14.888.495 15.035.432 15.185.587 15.338.410 15.498.006 15.663.106 15.834.543 16.013.384 16.200.320 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.036.479 14.268.873 14.506.441 14.718.183 14.917.064 15.104.939 15.296.734 15.492.784 15.695.187 15.903.470 16.118.005 16.339.328 16.567.590
DK Baseline 738.804 744.657 753.536757.406 761.316 765.267 769.259 773.293 777.368 781.487 785.648 789.853 794.102 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 738.804 744.657 753.536 758.674 763.776 768.678 773.149 777.336 781.488 785.870 790.592 795.683 801.053 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 738.804 744.657 753.536 758.619 763.602 768.320 772.699 776.875 781.081 785.464 790.067 794.871 799.792 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 738.804 744.657 753.536 758.434 763.178 767.742 772.047 776.190 780.326 784.607 789.072 793.724 798.503
ES Baseline 7.547.319 7.666.405 7.791.141 7.945.403 8.102.960 8.263.890 8.428.267 8.596.171 8.767.682 8.942.882 9.121.858 9.304.696 9.491.484 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.547.319 7.666.405 7.791.141 7.950.135 8.113.680 8.281.275 8.451.344 8.623.713 8.800.357 8.980.646 9.164.927 9.353.487 9.546.445 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.547.319 7.666.405 7.791.141 7.946.017 8.099.905 8.250.690 8.403.515 8.557.953 8.717.180 8.879.709 9.046.055 9.216.496 9.391.105 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.547.319 7.666.405 7.791.141 7.946.085 8.101.698 8.258.354 8.417.737 8.579.670 8.745.811 8.915.539 9.089.193 9.267.033 9.449.153
FI Baseline 961.701 969.443 978.986994.729 1.010.756 1.027.073 1.043.686 1.060.599 1.077.819 1.095.351 1.113.202 1.131.377 1.149.883 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 961.701 969.443 978.986 998.289 1.018.088 1.037.312 1.055.742 1.073.463 1.090.753 1.108.062 1.125.818 1.144.510 1.164.364 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 961.701 969.443 978.986 997.537 1.015.493 1.031.921 1.048.074 1.064.159 1.080.488 1.097.236 1.114.470 1.132.288 1.150.624 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 961.701 969.443 978.986 997.657 1.016.227 1.034.071 1.051.532 1.068.691 1.085.732 1.102.943 1.120.538 1.138.799 1.157.824
FR Baseline 11.643.754 11.745.786 11.850.518 11.992.556 12.136.615 12.282.732 12.430.945 12.581.290 12.733.808 12.888.538 13.045.519 13.204.794 13.366.407 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.643.754 11.745.786 11.850.518 11.996.927 12.140.069 12.280.955 12.423.014 12.566.490 12.713.877 12.864.413 13.018.336 13.176.192 13.338.274 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.643.754 11.745.786 11.850.518 11.984.219 12.098.248 12.190.113 12.282.612 12.375.138 12.472.073 12.572.249 12.676.752 12.786.983 12.904.069 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.643.754 11.745.786 11.850.518 11.988.543 12.115.540 12.234.267 12.354.432 12.476.087 12.601.570 12.730.482 12.863.452 13.001.308 13.144.559
GR Baseline 2.606.779 2.604.165 2.604.738 2.640.330 2.676.498 2.713.252 2.750.602 2.788.558 2.827.131 2.866.332 2.906.171 2.946.659 2.987.809 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.606.779 2.604.165 2.604.738 2.642.052 2.681.597 2.722.280 2.763.506 2.805.173 2.847.484 2.890.376 2.933.829 2.977.847 3.022.413 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.606.779 2.604.165 2.604.738 2.641.723 2.680.089 2.718.522 2.757.241 2.796.137 2.835.652 2.875.602 2.916.008 2.956.907 2.998.297 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.606.779 2.604.165 2.604.738 2.641.617 2.679.893 2.718.767 2.758.170 2.798.026 2.838.487 2.879.515 2.921.094 2.963.227 3.005.920
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 1.913.352 1.966.561 2.025.450 2.059.890 2.095.187 2.131.363 2.168.443 2.206.453 2.245.419 2.285.367 2.326.324 2.368.320 2.411.382 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.913.352 1.966.561 2.025.450 2.060.157 2.095.698 2.131.976 2.169.136 2.207.198 2.246.496 2.286.884 2.328.384 2.371.021 2.415.466 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.913.352 1.966.561 2.025.450 2.058.726 2.091.661 2.123.134 2.154.895 2.186.694 2.218.889 2.250.914 2.282.616 2.313.914 2.346.052 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.913.352 1.966.561 2.025.450 2.059.109 2.093.029 2.126.854 2.161.281 2.196.228 2.231.948 2.268.221 2.305.073 2.342.580 2.381.510
IE Baseline 815.944 829.769 843.946866.290 889.264 912.886 937.175 962.150 987.830 1.014.237 1.041.392 1.069.316 1.098.032 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 815.944 829.769 843.946 868.000 893.002 918.794 945.158 972.079 999.589 1.027.719 1.056.448 1.085.805 1.115.805 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 815.944 829.769 843.946 867.644 891.696 915.727 940.192 965.074 990.530 1.016.558 1.043.145 1.070.372 1.098.280 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 815.944 829.769 843.946 867.628 891.800 916.378 941.507 967.188 993.445 1.020.317 1.047.793 1.075.911 1.104.695
IT Baseline 18.608.861 18.770.305 18.934.244 19.040.215 19.147.233 19.255.313 19.364.467 19.474.705 19.586.040 19.698.485 19.812.051 19.926.753 20.042.602 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 18.608.861 18.770.305 18.934.244 19.046.422 19.158.869 19.272.112 19.384.295 19.495.401 19.608.727 19.723.171 19.839.293 19.957.674 20.078.267 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 18.608.861 18.770.305 18.934.244 19.036.058 19.126.597 19.202.522 19.277.654 19.350.669 19.426.768 19.503.581 19.582.238 19.663.506 19.747.537 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 18.608.861 18.770.305 18.934.244 19.037.069 19.133.102 19.224.166 19.315.301 19.405.937 19.498.910 19.593.124 19.689.354 19.788.113 19.889.523
LU Baseline 40.771 41.304 41.852 42.264 42.681 43.105 43.533 43.968 44.408 44.854 45.306 45.764 46.228 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 40.771 41.304 41.852 42.384 42.866 43.362 43.856 44.346 44.836 45.324 45.810 46.297 46.786 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 40.771 41.304 41.852 42.340 42.726 43.057 43.391 43.730 44.090 44.469 44.872 45.302 45.756 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 40.771 41.304 41.852 42.344 42.753 43.145 43.542 43.945 44.358 44.783 45.222 45.675 46.143
NL Baseline 3.059.589 3.106.000 3.153.642 3.199.765 3.246.660 3.294.341 3.342.823 3.392.120 3.442.247 3.493.220 3.545.053 3.597.763 3.651.366 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.059.589 3.106.000 3.153.642 3.201.258 3.249.632 3.299.486 3.350.649 3.403.078 3.457.096 3.512.224 3.568.197 3.624.913 3.682.317 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.059.589 3.106.000 3.153.642 3.200.072 3.245.806 3.290.452 3.335.395 3.380.287 3.425.848 3.471.662 3.517.944 3.565.012 3.613.123 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.059.589 3.106.000 3.153.642 3.200.094 3.246.311 3.292.822 3.340.125 3.388.100 3.437.121 3.486.945 3.537.597 3.589.171 3.641.741
PL Baseline 7.466.299 7.718.521 7.984.733 8.194.674 8.410.679 8.632.931 8.861.629 9.096.971 9.339.161 9.588.415 9.844.951 10.108.997 10.380.788 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.466.299 7.718.521 7.984.733 8.195.334 8.410.326 8.627.908 8.851.127 9.080.043 9.315.508 9.556.506 9.802.062 10.051.912 10.307.186 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.466.299 7.718.521 7.984.733 8.185.204 8.380.994 8.567.457 8.759.549 8.954.642 9.152.305 9.348.915 9.542.038 9.730.968 9.918.450 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.466.299 7.718.521 7.984.733 8.189.131 8.394.166 8.598.486 8.808.507 9.023.284 9.242.774 9.465.179 9.689.247 9.914.644 10.142.896
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 2.029.276 2.022.945 2.017.114 2.042.065 2.067.442 2.093.250 2.119.500 2.146.199 2.173.357 2.200.981 2.229.083 2.257.670 2.286.753 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.029.276 2.022.945 2.017.114 2.043.011 2.070.442 2.098.960 2.127.743 2.156.557 2.185.716 2.215.012 2.244.523 2.274.340 2.304.561 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.029.276 2.022.945 2.017.114 2.042.475 2.068.162 2.093.111 2.117.785 2.142.001 2.166.555 2.191.278 2.216.478 2.242.354 2.268.979 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.029.276 2.022.945 2.017.114 2.042.331 2.067.991 2.093.787 2.119.700 2.145.614 2.171.920 2.198.529 2.225.590 2.253.206 2.281.421
SE Baseline 1.117.346 1.132.047 1.149.531 1.166.501 1.183.757 1.201.304 1.219.147 1.237.292 1.255.744 1.274.510 1.293.596 1.313.006 1.332.748 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.117.346 1.132.047 1.149.531 1.167.754 1.186.169 1.204.489 1.222.752 1.241.037 1.259.604 1.278.681 1.298.492 1.319.129 1.340.541 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.117.346 1.132.047 1.149.531 1.166.942 1.183.652 1.199.398 1.215.473 1.231.977 1.249.090 1.266.628 1.284.514 1.302.622 1.320.897 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.117.346 1.132.047 1.149.531 1.167.120 1.184.457 1.201.537 1.218.835 1.236.395 1.254.364 1.272.766 1.291.657 1.311.033 1.330.860
SI Baseline 571.152 583.906 597.677613.610 630.035 646.967 664.423 682.420 700.976 720.108 739.836 760.179 781.156 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 571.151 583.906 597.677 613.611 629.858 646.343 663.338 680.894 699.132 718.048 737.688 758.101 779.325 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 571.151 583.906 597.677 612.992 627.859 642.057 656.765 671.962 687.821 704.272 721.369 739.167 757.712 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 571.151 583.906 597.677 613.246 628.809 644.361 660.429 677.040 694.313 712.240 730.875 750.265 770.450
UK Baseline 9.199.747 9.340.101 9.484.554 9.635.557 9.789.260 9.945.713 10.104.967 10.267.078 10.432.101 10.600.090 10.771.104 10.945.198 11.122.435 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.199.747 9.340.101 9.484.554 9.644.920 9.810.463 9.980.405 10.152.944 10.327.602 10.505.340 10.685.639 10.868.429 11.053.730 11.241.428 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.199.747 9.340.101 9.484.554 9.637.400 9.785.867 9.925.270 10.065.721 10.206.537 10.350.283 10.496.071 10.644.715 10.796.956 10.953.373 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.199.747 9.340.101 9.484.554 9.638.417 9.791.351 9.942.945 10.096.805 10.252.606 10.411.475 10.573.082 10.737.710 10.905.667 11.077.118
stock of medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 92.581.714 96.681.409 101.227.728 106.106.644 111.502.711 117.559.322 119.455.389 121.339.699 123.250.302 125.186.059 127.042.131 128.581.209 130.181.774 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 92.581.714 96.681.409 101.227.728 106.106.644 111.502.711 117.559.322 119.455.389 121.339.699 123.250.302 125.186.059 127.042.131 128.581.207 130.181.771 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 92.581.714 96.681.409 101.227.728 106.106.644 111.502.711 117.559.322 119.455.389 121.339.699 123.250.302 125.186.059 127.042.131 128.581.207 130.181.771 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 92.581.714 96.681.409 101.227.728 106.106.644 111.502.711 117.559.322 119.455.389 121.339.699 123.250.302 125.186.059 127.042.131 128.581.207 130.181.771
EU15 Baseline 82.859.325 86.586.879 90.704.091 95.182.437 100.131.173 105.644.802 107.269.977 108.905.244 110.568.121 112.258.472 113.929.445 115.323.240 116.767.242 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 82.859.325 86.586.879 90.704.091 95.182.437 100.131.173 105.644.802 107.269.977 108.905.244 110.568.122 112.258.472 113.929.444 115.323.239 116.767.241 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 82.859.325 86.586.879 90.704.091 95.182.437 100.131.173 105.644.802 107.269.977 108.905.244 110.568.122 112.258.472 113.929.444 115.323.239 116.767.241 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 82.859.325 86.586.879 90.704.091 95.182.437 100.131.173 105.644.802 107.269.977 108.905.244 110.568.122 112.258.472 113.929.444 115.323.239 116.767.241
EU10 Baseline 9.722.389 10.094.530 10.523.638 10.924.207 11.371.538 11.914.520 12.185.412 12.434.455 12.682.180 12.927.587 13.112.687 13.257.969 13.414.532 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.722.389 10.094.530 10.523.638 10.924.207 11.371.538 11.914.520 12.185.412 12.434.455 12.682.180 12.927.587 13.112.687 13.257.968 13.414.530 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.722.389 10.094.530 10.523.638 10.924.207 11.371.538 11.914.520 12.185.412 12.434.455 12.682.180 12.927.587 13.112.687 13.257.968 13.414.530 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.722.389 10.094.530 10.523.638 10.924.207 11.371.538 11.914.520 12.185.412 12.434.455 12.682.180 12.927.587 13.112.687 13.257.968 13.414.530
AT Baseline 2.339.995 2.449.568 2.564.273 2.684.348 2.810.046 2.941.629 2.977.779 3.014.373 3.051.416 3.088.915 3.126.875 3.169.430 3.213.667 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.339.995 2.449.568 2.564.273 2.684.348 2.810.046 2.941.629 2.977.779 3.014.373 3.051.416 3.088.915 3.126.875 3.169.430 3.213.667 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.339.995 2.449.568 2.564.273 2.684.348 2.810.046 2.941.629 2.977.779 3.014.373 3.051.416 3.088.915 3.126.875 3.169.430 3.213.667 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.339.995 2.449.568 2.564.273 2.684.348 2.810.046 2.941.629 2.977.779 3.014.373 3.051.416 3.088.915 3.126.875 3.169.430 3.213.667
BE Baseline 2.357.746 2.431.567 2.541.339 2.616.339 2.717.665 2.884.711 3.002.793 3.101.248 3.196.881 3.288.837 3.329.534 3.375.112 3.421.770 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.357.746 2.431.567 2.541.339 2.616.339 2.717.665 2.884.711 3.002.793 3.101.248 3.196.881 3.288.837 3.329.534 3.375.111 3.421.768 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.357.746 2.431.567 2.541.339 2.616.339 2.717.665 2.884.711 3.002.793 3.101.248 3.196.881 3.288.837 3.329.534 3.375.111 3.421.768 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.357.746 2.431.567 2.541.339 2.616.339 2.717.665 2.884.711 3.002.793 3.101.248 3.196.881 3.288.837 3.329.534 3.375.111 3.421.768
CZ Baseline 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.456.356 1.496.716 1.542.322 1.591.074 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.456.356 1.496.716 1.542.322 1.591.074 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.456.356 1.496.716 1.542.322 1.591.074 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.417.085 1.456.356 1.496.716 1.542.322 1.591.074
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 27.458.236 27.668.029 27.883.398 28.104.391 28.331.055 28.563.444 28.878.375 29.196.776 29.518.688 29.844.152 30.173.200 30.664.556 31.166.657 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 27.458.236 27.668.029 27.883.398 28.104.391 28.331.056 28.563.444 28.878.375 29.196.776 29.518.688 29.844.152 30.173.200 30.664.556 31.166.657 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 27.458.236 27.668.029 27.883.398 28.104.391 28.331.056 28.563.444 28.878.375 29.196.776 29.518.688 29.844.152 30.173.200 30.664.556 31.166.657 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 27.458.236 27.668.029 27.883.398 28.104.391 28.331.056 28.563.444 28.878.375 29.196.776 29.518.688 29.844.152 30.173.200 30.664.556 31.166.657
DK Baseline 746.348 816.544 893.343977.365 1.069.290 1.169.861 1.176.764 1.183.708 1.190.693 1.197.720 1.204.787 1.204.616 1.207.169 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 746.348 816.544 893.343 977.365 1.069.290 1.169.861 1.176.764 1.183.708 1.190.693 1.197.720 1.204.787 1.204.616 1.207.169 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 746.348 816.544 893.343 977.365 1.069.290 1.169.861 1.176.764 1.183.708 1.190.693 1.197.720 1.204.787 1.204.616 1.207.169 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 746.348 816.544 893.343 977.365 1.069.290 1.169.861 1.176.764 1.183.708 1.190.693 1.197.720 1.204.787 1.204.616 1.207.169
ES Baseline 6.335.176 7.086.007 7.925.824 8.865.177 9.915.859 11.091.063 11.456.509 11.833.993 12.223.917 12.626.687 13.042.729 13.231.558 13.428.513 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.335.176 7.086.007 7.925.824 8.865.177 9.915.859 11.091.063 11.456.509 11.833.993 12.223.917 12.626.687 13.042.729 13.231.558 13.428.513 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.335.176 7.086.007 7.925.824 8.865.177 9.915.859 11.091.063 11.456.509 11.833.993 12.223.917 12.626.687 13.042.729 13.231.558 13.428.513 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.335.176 7.086.007 7.925.824 8.865.177 9.915.859 11.091.063 11.456.509 11.833.993 12.223.917 12.626.687 13.042.729 13.231.558 13.428.513
FI Baseline 851.442 1.049.145 1.292.755 1.592.930 1.962.805 2.418.565 2.451.375 2.484.632 2.518.339 2.552.504 2.587.131 2.596.668 2.609.633 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 851.442 1.049.145 1.292.755 1.592.930 1.962.805 2.418.565 2.451.375 2.484.632 2.518.339 2.552.504 2.587.131 2.596.668 2.609.633 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 851.442 1.049.145 1.292.755 1.592.930 1.962.805 2.418.565 2.451.375 2.484.632 2.518.339 2.552.504 2.587.131 2.596.668 2.609.633 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 851.442 1.049.145 1.292.755 1.592.930 1.962.805 2.418.565 2.451.375 2.484.632 2.518.339 2.552.504 2.587.131 2.596.668 2.609.633
FR Baseline 13.064.004 13.482.803 13.936.929 14.428.822 14.961.043 15.536.294 15.799.849 16.067.872 16.340.443 16.617.640 16.899.536 17.039.863 17.183.956 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.064.004 13.482.803 13.936.929 14.428.822 14.961.043 15.536.294 15.799.849 16.067.872 16.340.443 16.617.640 16.899.536 17.039.863 17.183.956 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.064.004 13.482.803 13.936.929 14.428.822 14.961.043 15.536.294 15.799.849 16.067.872 16.340.443 16.617.640 16.899.536 17.039.863 17.183.956 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.064.004 13.482.803 13.936.929 14.428.822 14.961.043 15.536.294 15.799.849 16.067.872 16.340.443 16.617.640 16.899.536 17.039.863 17.183.956
GR Baseline 346.729 380.629 417.845458.699 503.547 552.781 569.509 586.744 604.501 622.795 641.642 638.745 636.597 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 346.729 380.629 417.845 458.699 503.547 552.781 569.509 586.744 604.501 622.795 641.642 638.745 636.597 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 346.729 380.629 417.845 458.699 503.547 552.781 569.509 586.744 604.501 622.795 641.642 638.745 636.597 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 346.729 380.629 417.845 458.699 503.547 552.781 569.509 586.744 604.501 622.795 641.642 638.745 636.597
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 953.865 953.865 953.865953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 974.430 995.439 1.016.900 1.038.053 1.062.176 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 974.430 995.439 1.016.900 1.038.053 1.062.176 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 974.430 995.439 1.016.900 1.038.053 1.062.176 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 953.865 974.430 995.439 1.016.900 1.038.053 1.062.176
IE Baseline 339.458 396.055 462.089539.132 629.021 733.896 758.539 784.009 810.334 837.543 865.666 879.952 894.604 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 339.458 396.055 462.089 539.132 629.021 733.896 758.539 784.009 810.334 837.543 865.666 879.952 894.604 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 339.458 396.055 462.089 539.132 629.021 733.896 758.539 784.009 810.334 837.543 865.666 879.952 894.604 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 339.458 396.055 462.089 539.132 629.021 733.896 758.539 784.009 810.334 837.543 865.666 879.952 894.604
IT Baseline 9.400.994 10.492.056 11.709.744 13.068.755 14.585.491 16.278.254 16.310.957 16.343.725 16.376.561 16.409.459 16.442.426 16.582.127 16.724.017 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.400.994 10.492.056 11.709.744 13.068.755 14.585.491 16.278.254 16.310.957 16.343.725 16.376.561 16.409.459 16.442.426 16.582.127 16.724.017 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.400.994 10.492.056 11.709.744 13.068.755 14.585.491 16.278.254 16.310.957 16.343.725 16.376.561 16.409.459 16.442.426 16.582.127 16.724.017 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.400.994 10.492.056 11.709.744 13.068.755 14.585.491 16.278.254 16.310.957 16.343.725 16.376.561 16.409.459 16.442.426 16.582.127 16.724.017
LU Baseline 141.327 152.855 165.323178.808 193.393 209.168 212.276 215.430 218.631 221.879 225.176 227.996 230.891 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 141.327 152.855 165.323 178.808 193.393 209.168 212.276 215.430 218.631 221.879 225.176 227.996 230.891 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 141.327 152.855 165.323 178.808 193.393 209.168 212.276 215.430 218.631 221.879 225.176 227.996 230.891 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 141.327 152.855 165.323 178.808 193.393 209.168 212.276 215.430 218.631 221.879 225.176 227.996 230.891
NL Baseline 2.860.049 2.975.198 3.094.982 3.219.588 3.349.211 3.484.054 3.532.290 3.581.195 3.630.776 3.681.044 3.732.008 3.786.674 3.842.805 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.860.049 2.975.198 3.094.982 3.219.588 3.349.211 3.484.054 3.532.290 3.581.195 3.630.776 3.681.044 3.732.008 3.786.674 3.842.805 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.860.049 2.975.198 3.094.982 3.219.588 3.349.211 3.484.054 3.532.290 3.581.195 3.630.776 3.681.044 3.732.008 3.786.674 3.842.805 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.860.049 2.975.198 3.094.982 3.219.588 3.349.211 3.484.054 3.532.290 3.581.195 3.630.776 3.681.044 3.732.008 3.786.674 3.842.805
PL Baseline 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.386.891 5.644.545 5.914.520 6.101.380 6.298.658 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.386.891 5.644.545 5.914.520 6.101.380 6.298.658 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.386.891 5.644.545 5.914.520 6.101.380 6.298.658 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.141.000 5.386.891 5.644.545 5.914.520 6.101.380 6.298.658
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 1.014.286 1.069.177 1.127.039 1.188.032 1.252.326 1.320.099 1.341.819 1.363.897 1.386.338 1.409.148 1.432.333 1.426.871 1.421.755 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.014.286 1.069.177 1.127.039 1.188.032 1.252.326 1.320.099 1.341.819 1.363.897 1.386.338 1.409.148 1.432.333 1.426.871 1.421.755 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.014.286 1.069.177 1.127.039 1.188.032 1.252.326 1.320.099 1.341.819 1.363.897 1.386.338 1.409.148 1.432.333 1.426.871 1.421.755 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.014.286 1.069.177 1.127.039 1.188.032 1.252.326 1.320.099 1.341.819 1.363.897 1.386.338 1.409.148 1.432.333 1.426.871 1.421.755
SE Baseline 2.407.835 2.490.121 2.575.218 2.663.224 2.754.238 2.848.361 2.887.445 2.927.066 2.967.229 3.007.945 3.049.218 3.071.003 3.098.745 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.407.835 2.490.121 2.575.218 2.663.224 2.754.238 2.848.361 2.887.445 2.927.066 2.967.229 3.007.945 3.049.218 3.071.003 3.098.745 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.407.835 2.490.121 2.575.218 2.663.224 2.754.238 2.848.361 2.887.445 2.927.066 2.967.229 3.007.945 3.049.218 3.071.003 3.098.745 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.407.835 2.490.121 2.575.218 2.663.224 2.754.238 2.848.361 2.887.445 2.927.066 2.967.229 3.007.945 3.049.218 3.071.003 3.098.745
SI Baseline 345.373 345.373 345.373345.373 345.373 345.373 349.971 354.631 359.353 364.137 368.985 375.756 383.164 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 345.373 345.373 345.373 345.373 345.373 345.373 349.971 354.631 359.353 364.137 368.985 375.756 383.164 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 345.373 345.373 345.373 345.373 345.373 345.373 349.971 354.631 359.353 364.137 368.985 375.756 383.164 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 345.373 345.373 345.373 345.373 345.373 345.373 349.971 354.631 359.353 364.137 368.985 375.756 383.164
UK Baseline 13.195.700 13.647.123 14.113.991 14.596.828 15.096.184 15.612.623 15.913.697 16.220.576 16.533.373 16.852.204 17.177.180 17.428.069 17.686.465 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.195.700 13.647.123 14.113.991 14.596.828 15.096.184 15.612.623 15.913.697 16.220.576 16.533.373 16.852.204 17.177.180 17.428.069 17.686.465 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.195.700 13.647.123 14.113.991 14.596.828 15.096.184 15.612.623 15.913.697 16.220.576 16.533.373 16.852.204 17.177.180 17.428.069 17.686.465 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.195.700 13.647.123 14.113.991 14.596.828 15.096.184 15.612.623 15.913.697 16.220.576 16.533.373 16.852.204 17.177.180 17.428.069 17.686.465
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 131.847.171 133.581.402 135.389.491 137.229.845 139.101.293 141.004.448 142.939.922 144.908.348 146.910.381 148.946.677 151.017.910 153.124.775 155.267.975 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 131.847.167 133.581.396 135.389.483 137.321.168 139.363.651 141.428.271 143.518.702 145.631.448 147.763.470 149.915.743 152.087.516 154.279.199 156.494.081 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 131.847.167 133.581.396 135.389.483 137.279.705 139.233.098 141.170.975 143.131.554 145.113.257 147.114.799 149.138.673 151.186.155 153.259.375 155.362.894 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 131.847.167 133.581.396 135.389.483 137.286.189 139.264.277 141.259.312 143.284.880 145.339.308 147.419.344 149.526.704 151.659.955 153.818.957 156.005.305
EU15 Baseline 118.264.124 119.817.066 121.430.050 123.084.821 124.767.778 126.479.483 128.220.494 129.991.391 131.792.775 133.625.244 135.489.417 137.385.930 139.315.426 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 118.264.122 119.817.063 121.430.046 123.163.792 124.992.602 126.839.289 128.710.146 130.602.484 132.513.964 134.445.293 136.395.644 138.364.995 140.356.046 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 118.264.122 119.817.063 121.430.046 123.126.352 124.874.855 126.607.784 128.362.051 130.136.439 131.929.948 133.744.684 135.581.721 137.442.804 139.331.915 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 118.264.122 119.817.063 121.430.046 123.133.262 124.906.238 126.693.919 128.509.900 130.352.829 132.220.070 134.112.992 136.030.252 137.971.596 139.938.407
EU10 Baseline 13.583.047 13.764.336 13.959.441 14.145.024 14.333.515 14.524.965 14.719.428 14.916.956 15.117.606 15.321.432 15.528.493 15.738.845 15.952.549 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.583.045 13.764.332 13.959.437 14.157.376 14.371.050 14.588.982 14.808.556 15.028.964 15.249.506 15.470.449 15.691.872 15.914.203 16.138.035 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.583.045 13.764.332 13.959.437 14.153.353 14.358.243 14.563.191 14.769.503 14.976.818 15.184.851 15.393.989 15.604.433 15.816.570 16.030.980 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.583.045 13.764.332 13.959.437 14.152.927 14.358.039 14.565.393 14.774.981 14.986.479 15.199.273 15.413.713 15.629.703 15.847.362 16.066.898
AT Baseline 3.259.634 3.307.380 3.356.956 3.401.532 3.446.830 3.492.865 3.539.650 3.587.199 3.635.527 3.684.651 3.734.584 3.785.342 3.836.943 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.259.634 3.307.380 3.356.956 3.402.858 3.454.041 3.504.966 3.556.393 3.608.235 3.660.430 3.713.012 3.766.018 3.819.375 3.873.252 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.259.634 3.307.380 3.356.956 3.401.312 3.449.272 3.495.463 3.542.138 3.589.315 3.637.023 3.685.339 3.734.346 3.783.969 3.834.350 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.259.634 3.307.380 3.356.956 3.401.978 3.451.676 3.501.210 3.551.387 3.602.141 3.653.451 3.705.339 3.757.814 3.810.786 3.864.357
BE Baseline 3.469.537 3.518.446 3.568.531 3.605.656 3.643.240 3.681.289 3.719.812 3.758.815 3.798.305 3.838.292 3.878.782 3.919.784 3.961.305 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.469.535 3.518.443 3.568.528 3.608.262 3.653.955 3.700.163 3.746.471 3.792.578 3.837.984 3.882.766 3.927.002 3.970.911 4.014.672 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.469.535 3.518.443 3.568.528 3.606.962 3.650.092 3.692.622 3.735.223 3.777.755 3.819.869 3.861.648 3.903.210 3.944.732 3.986.374 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.469.535 3.518.443 3.568.528 3.606.997 3.650.468 3.694.014 3.737.770 3.781.608 3.825.256 3.868.760 3.912.167 3.955.477 3.998.743
CZ Baseline 1.643.184 1.698.878 1.758.402 1.797.872 1.838.307 1.879.734 1.922.178 1.965.666 2.010.225 2.055.883 2.102.667 2.150.609 2.199.737 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.643.184 1.698.878 1.758.402 1.798.186 1.839.065 1.880.758 1.923.427 1.967.132 2.011.855 2.057.689 2.104.722 2.153.029 2.202.777 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.643.184 1.698.878 1.758.402 1.797.692 1.837.666 1.878.149 1.919.515 1.961.912 2.005.382 2.050.121 2.096.247 2.143.845 2.193.078 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.643.184 1.698.878 1.758.402 1.797.737 1.837.893 1.878.842 1.920.774 1.963.780 2.007.892 2.053.237 2.099.911 2.148.005 2.197.649
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 31.679.804 32.204.309 32.740.492 33.223.638 33.714.813 34.214.172 34.721.872 35.238.077 35.762.952 36.296.669 36.839.399 37.391.321 37.952.614 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 31.679.804 32.204.309 32.740.492 33.258.862 33.803.179 34.350.507 34.902.547 35.458.715 36.019.377 36.584.728 37.154.317 37.728.497 38.308.155 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 31.679.804 32.204.309 32.740.492 33.246.303 33.763.878 34.272.587 34.785.386 35.301.948 35.823.257 36.349.528 36.880.792 37.417.882 37.962.029 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 31.679.804 32.204.309 32.740.492 33.248.347 33.774.080 34.301.950 34.836.378 35.376.860 35.923.103 36.475.512 37.033.489 37.597.273 38.167.351
DK Baseline 1.212.912 1.222.522 1.237.099 1.243.452 1.249.871 1.256.357 1.262.911 1.269.533 1.276.225 1.282.986 1.289.818 1.296.722 1.303.697 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.212.912 1.222.522 1.237.099 1.244.573 1.252.874 1.261.856 1.271.104 1.280.415 1.289.572 1.298.374 1.306.713 1.314.609 1.322.184 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.212.912 1.222.522 1.237.099 1.244.385 1.252.257 1.260.482 1.268.819 1.277.084 1.285.139 1.292.883 1.300.304 1.307.473 1.314.519 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.212.912 1.222.522 1.237.099 1.244.292 1.252.008 1.260.059 1.268.283 1.276.554 1.284.703 1.292.652 1.300.338 1.307.799 1.315.112
ES Baseline 13.634.208 13.849.336 14.074.672 14.353.345 14.637.973 14.928.691 15.225.636 15.528.955 15.838.788 16.155.289 16.478.609 16.808.903 17.146.333 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.634.208 13.849.336 14.074.672 14.355.842 14.647.647 14.944.583 15.248.205 15.558.508 15.875.149 16.198.440 16.528.504 16.865.402 17.209.308 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.634.208 13.849.336 14.074.672 14.352.850 14.637.779 14.924.801 15.217.760 15.516.751 15.821.358 16.132.132 16.449.376 16.773.367 17.104.496 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.634.208 13.849.336 14.074.672 14.353.790 14.641.501 14.934.114 15.233.419 15.539.559 15.852.352 16.172.143 16.499.066 16.833.192 17.174.719
FI Baseline 2.626.442 2.647.586 2.673.647 2.716.640 2.760.412 2.804.975 2.850.344 2.896.534 2.943.563 2.991.444 3.040.196 3.089.833 3.140.373 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.626.442 2.647.586 2.673.647 2.718.153 2.765.551 2.815.048 2.866.282 2.919.091 2.973.186 3.028.060 3.083.117 3.137.902 3.192.269 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.626.442 2.647.586 2.673.647 2.717.992 2.764.820 2.813.111 2.862.508 2.912.701 2.963.428 3.014.367 3.065.300 3.116.235 3.167.425 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.626.442 2.647.586 2.673.647 2.717.857 2.764.408 2.812.499 2.861.987 2.912.742 2.964.502 3.016.983 3.069.820 3.122.765 3.175.768
FR Baseline 17.331.897 17.483.773 17.639.668 17.851.093 18.065.527 18.283.025 18.503.642 18.727.432 18.954.458 19.184.775 19.418.444 19.655.528 19.896.090 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 17.331.897 17.483.773 17.639.668 17.857.481 18.089.868 18.323.279 18.559.520 18.798.195 19.038.640 19.281.267 19.526.037 19.772.823 20.021.767 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 17.331.897 17.483.773 17.639.668 17.852.686 18.075.178 18.295.718 18.518.937 18.744.837 18.972.831 19.203.496 19.436.951 19.673.185 19.912.410 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 17.331.897 17.483.773 17.639.668 17.853.885 18.079.915 18.307.621 18.538.767 18.773.190 19.010.449 19.250.692 19.493.793 19.739.472 19.987.762
GR Baseline 635.200 634.563 634.703643.375 652.188 661.144 670.246 679.495 688.894 698.446 708.154 718.020 728.046 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 635.200 634.563 634.703 643.551 652.754 662.158 671.701 681.378 691.169 701.088 711.136 721.315 731.629 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 635.200 634.563 634.703 643.547 652.732 662.159 671.750 681.493 691.346 701.333 711.450 721.693 732.069 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 635.200 634.563 634.703 643.533 652.658 661.960 671.407 680.997 690.701 700.540 710.509 720.606 730.839
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 1.089.341 1.119.635 1.153.162 1.172.771 1.192.866 1.213.462 1.234.573 1.256.214 1.278.399 1.301.142 1.324.461 1.348.370 1.372.888 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.089.341 1.119.635 1.153.162 1.173.505 1.194.510 1.216.051 1.238.222 1.261.100 1.284.792 1.309.358 1.334.830 1.361.216 1.388.564 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.089.341 1.119.635 1.153.162 1.173.152 1.193.551 1.214.358 1.235.849 1.258.066 1.281.081 1.304.946 1.329.703 1.355.378 1.381.993 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.089.341 1.119.635 1.153.162 1.173.159 1.193.651 1.214.688 1.236.406 1.258.857 1.282.095 1.306.221 1.331.293 1.357.353 1.384.375
IE Baseline 909.631 925.043 940.848965.758 991.370 1.017.705 1.044.782 1.072.624 1.101.254 1.130.693 1.160.965 1.192.096 1.224.109 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 909.631 925.043 940.848 966.462 993.455 1.020.929 1.049.080 1.077.915 1.107.453 1.137.709 1.168.682 1.200.386 1.232.862 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 909.631 925.043 940.848 966.174 992.468 1.018.957 1.046.121 1.073.957 1.102.483 1.131.728 1.161.706 1.192.444 1.223.987 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 909.631 925.043 940.848 966.278 992.916 1.020.086 1.047.980 1.076.600 1.105.939 1.136.022 1.166.855 1.198.441 1.230.816
IT Baseline 16.868.119 17.014.459 17.163.063 17.259.120 17.356.128 17.454.098 17.553.041 17.652.967 17.753.889 17.855.814 17.958.757 18.062.730 18.167.741 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16.868.119 17.014.459 17.163.063 17.265.820 17.377.512 17.489.836 17.603.321 17.717.515 17.831.475 17.945.334 18.059.145 18.172.496 18.285.820 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16.868.119 17.014.459 17.163.063 17.262.382 17.367.268 17.470.574 17.574.457 17.678.772 17.782.547 17.886.247 17.990.076 18.093.858 18.198.161 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16.868.119 17.014.459 17.163.063 17.263.204 17.370.189 17.477.666 17.586.458 17.696.393 17.806.793 17.917.863 18.029.425 18.141.245 18.253.444
LU Baseline 233.865 236.922 240.065242.430 244.825 247.253 249.712 252.204 254.729 257.288 259.881 262.508 265.170 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 233.865 236.922 240.065 242.679 245.659 248.421 251.174 253.901 256.588 259.236 261.852 264.448 267.045 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 233.865 236.922 240.065 242.452 244.981 247.108 249.269 251.457 253.680 255.953 258.285 260.680 263.139 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 233.865 236.922 240.065 242.581 245.415 248.075 250.745 253.406 256.049 258.670 261.271 263.862 266.455
NL Baseline 3.900.435 3.959.600 4.020.337 4.079.135 4.138.918 4.199.703 4.261.509 4.324.354 4.388.257 4.453.238 4.519.316 4.586.512 4.654.846 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.900.435 3.959.600 4.020.337 4.082.487 4.148.524 4.215.800 4.283.555 4.351.638 4.420.047 4.489.023 4.558.720 4.629.230 4.700.670 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.900.435 3.959.600 4.020.337 4.081.208 4.144.395 4.207.634 4.271.554 4.336.176 4.401.525 4.467.748 4.534.837 4.602.754 4.671.558 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.900.435 3.959.600 4.020.337 4.081.121 4.144.495 4.208.620 4.273.602 4.339.407 4.405.939 4.473.356 4.541.655 4.610.828 4.680.891
PL Baseline 6.506.908 6.726.719 6.958.723 7.141.688 7.329.937 7.523.633 7.722.943 7.928.043 8.139.113 8.356.338 8.579.911 8.810.027 9.046.893 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.506.908 6.726.719 6.958.723 7.142.358 7.331.334 7.524.434 7.722.937 7.927.023 8.137.146 8.353.075 8.574.799 8.802.520 9.037.201 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.506.908 6.726.719 6.958.723 7.140.504 7.325.733 7.513.581 7.706.493 7.904.882 8.109.465 8.320.059 8.536.546 8.759.002 8.988.230 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.506.908 6.726.719 6.958.723 7.140.848 7.327.337 7.518.147 7.714.363 7.916.235 8.124.217 8.338.349 8.558.747 8.785.632 9.019.598
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 1.416.986 1.412.565 1.408.494 1.425.917 1.443.636 1.461.658 1.479.987 1.498.630 1.517.593 1.536.883 1.556.506 1.576.467 1.596.775 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.416.986 1.412.565 1.408.494 1.426.090 1.444.282 1.462.682 1.481.323 1.500.237 1.519.362 1.538.766 1.558.474 1.578.505 1.598.870 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.416.986 1.412.565 1.408.494 1.425.752 1.443.145 1.460.615 1.478.431 1.496.635 1.515.094 1.533.870 1.552.959 1.572.360 1.592.076 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.416.986 1.412.565 1.408.494 1.425.788 1.443.317 1.461.026 1.479.076 1.497.504 1.516.249 1.535.345 1.554.791 1.574.587 1.594.736
SE Baseline 3.132.927 3.174.146 3.223.171 3.270.753 3.319.136 3.368.335 3.418.365 3.469.241 3.520.981 3.573.599 3.627.112 3.681.538 3.736.893 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.132.927 3.174.146 3.223.171 3.274.749 3.329.028 3.384.845 3.441.288 3.498.156 3.555.395 3.612.892 3.670.477 3.728.191 3.786.218 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.132.927 3.174.146 3.223.171 3.274.032 3.326.541 3.379.401 3.432.466 3.485.567 3.538.837 3.592.341 3.646.138 3.700.409 3.755.402 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.132.927 3.174.146 3.223.171 3.273.749 3.325.971 3.379.028 3.432.705 3.486.901 3.541.508 3.596.587 3.652.025 3.707.926 3.764.383
SI Baseline 391.227 399.963 409.396420.310 431.560 443.159 455.116 467.443 480.154 493.259 506.772 520.706 535.075 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 391.227 399.963 409.396 420.650 432.411 444.469 456.901 469.720 482.960 496.600 510.633 525.082 539.980 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 391.227 399.963 409.396 420.539 432.024 443.680 455.686 468.079 480.926 494.230 507.990 522.220 536.929 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 391.227 399.963 409.396 420.552 432.128 444.030 456.332 469.045 482.185 495.755 509.749 524.179 539.063
UK Baseline 17.952.527 18.226.416 18.508.304 18.802.975 19.102.911 19.408.215 19.718.987 20.035.333 20.357.360 20.685.177 21.018.895 21.358.627 21.704.490 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 17.952.527 18.226.416 18.508.304 18.815.923 19.134.272 19.454.218 19.778.179 20.106.007 20.438.137 20.774.600 21.115.453 21.460.906 21.811.324 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 17.952.527 18.226.416 18.508.304 18.808.316 19.110.049 19.406.553 19.707.232 20.011.991 20.321.529 20.636.070 20.955.991 21.281.763 21.613.919 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 17.952.527 18.226.416 18.508.304 18.809.861 19.117.221 19.425.991 19.739.936 20.058.967 20.383.077 20.712.527 21.047.232 21.387.338 21.733.033
stock of small and medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 179.775.493 181.818.164 184.294.403 187.297.278 190.864.964 195.032.066 197.843.896 200.674.281 203.575.641 206.529.436 209.576.004 211.968.596 214.460.170 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 179.775.493 181.818.164 184.294.403 187.297.278 190.864.964 195.032.066 197.843.896 200.674.281 203.575.641 206.529.436 209.576.005 211.968.594 214.460.168 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 179.775.493 181.818.164 184.294.403 187.297.278 190.864.964 195.032.066 197.843.896 200.674.281 203.575.641 206.529.436 209.576.005 211.968.594 214.460.168 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 179.775.493 181.818.164 184.294.403 187.297.278 190.864.964 195.032.066 197.843.896 200.674.281 203.575.641 206.529.436 209.576.005 211.968.594 214.460.168
EU15 Baseline 160.108.909 161.864.136 164.032.603 166.678.797 169.858.887 173.621.683 176.093.106 178.596.972 181.157.488 183.766.893 186.443.963 188.617.833 190.871.043 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 160.108.909 161.864.136 164.032.603 166.678.797 169.858.887 173.621.683 176.093.106 178.596.972 181.157.488 183.766.893 186.443.963 188.617.832 190.871.041 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 160.108.909 161.864.136 164.032.603 166.678.797 169.858.887 173.621.683 176.093.106 178.596.972 181.157.488 183.766.893 186.443.963 188.617.832 190.871.041 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 160.108.909 161.864.136 164.032.603 166.678.797 169.858.887 173.621.683 176.093.106 178.596.972 181.157.488 183.766.893 186.443.963 188.617.832 190.871.041
EU10 Baseline 19.666.584 19.954.027 20.261.799 20.618.481 21.006.076 21.410.383 21.750.790 22.077.308 22.418.153 22.762.543 23.132.041 23.350.763 23.589.128 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 19.666.584 19.954.027 20.261.799 20.618.481 21.006.076 21.410.383 21.750.790 22.077.308 22.418.153 22.762.543 23.132.042 23.350.762 23.589.126 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 19.666.584 19.954.027 20.261.799 20.618.481 21.006.076 21.410.383 21.750.790 22.077.308 22.418.153 22.762.543 23.132.042 23.350.762 23.589.126 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 19.666.584 19.954.027 20.261.799 20.618.481 21.006.076 21.410.383 21.750.790 22.077.308 22.418.153 22.762.543 23.132.042 23.350.762 23.589.126
AT Baseline 3.553.913 3.579.316 3.612.318 3.653.112 3.701.486 3.756.956 3.803.125 3.849.862 3.897.173 3.945.065 3.993.546 4.047.896 4.104.394 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.553.913 3.579.316 3.612.318 3.653.112 3.701.486 3.756.956 3.803.125 3.849.862 3.897.173 3.945.065 3.993.546 4.047.896 4.104.394 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.553.913 3.579.316 3.612.318 3.653.112 3.701.486 3.756.956 3.803.125 3.849.862 3.897.173 3.945.065 3.993.546 4.047.896 4.104.394 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.553.913 3.579.316 3.612.318 3.653.112 3.701.486 3.756.956 3.803.125 3.849.862 3.897.173 3.945.065 3.993.546 4.047.896 4.104.394
BE Baseline 4.265.987 4.334.461 4.399.521 4.484.137 4.573.027 4.653.951 4.708.606 4.747.368 4.793.271 4.837.365 4.897.224 4.964.262 5.032.888 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.265.987 4.334.461 4.399.521 4.484.137 4.573.027 4.653.951 4.708.606 4.747.368 4.793.271 4.837.365 4.897.224 4.964.262 5.032.887 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.265.987 4.334.461 4.399.521 4.484.137 4.573.027 4.653.951 4.708.606 4.747.368 4.793.271 4.837.365 4.897.224 4.964.262 5.032.887 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.265.987 4.334.461 4.399.521 4.484.137 4.573.027 4.653.951 4.708.606 4.747.368 4.793.271 4.837.365 4.897.224 4.964.262 5.032.887
CZ Baseline 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.581.122 3.680.365 3.792.508 3.912.388 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.581.122 3.680.365 3.792.508 3.912.388 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.581.122 3.680.365 3.792.508 3.912.388 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.581.122 3.680.365 3.792.508 3.912.388
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 40.522.099 40.648.188 40.780.961 40.920.392 41.066.461 41.219.147 41.673.614 42.133.091 42.597.634 43.067.301 43.542.143 44.251.206 44.975.774 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 40.522.099 40.648.188 40.780.961 40.920.392 41.066.461 41.219.147 41.673.614 42.133.091 42.597.634 43.067.302 43.542.143 44.251.206 44.975.774 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 40.522.099 40.648.188 40.780.961 40.920.392 41.066.461 41.219.147 41.673.614 42.133.091 42.597.634 43.067.302 43.542.143 44.251.206 44.975.774 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 40.522.099 40.648.188 40.780.961 40.920.392 41.066.461 41.219.147 41.673.614 42.133.091 42.597.634 43.067.302 43.542.143 44.251.206 44.975.774
DK Baseline 1.681.292 1.702.058 1.732.040 1.771.720 1.821.647 1.882.441 1.893.549 1.904.723 1.915.963 1.927.269 1.938.642 1.938.367 1.942.474 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.681.292 1.702.058 1.732.040 1.771.720 1.821.647 1.882.441 1.893.549 1.904.723 1.915.963 1.927.269 1.938.642 1.938.367 1.942.474 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.681.292 1.702.058 1.732.040 1.771.720 1.821.647 1.882.441 1.893.549 1.904.723 1.915.963 1.927.269 1.938.642 1.938.367 1.942.474 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.681.292 1.702.058 1.732.040 1.771.720 1.821.647 1.882.441 1.893.549 1.904.723 1.915.963 1.927.269 1.938.642 1.938.367 1.942.474
ES Baseline 14.261.985 14.669.626 15.149.509 15.713.862 16.400.286 17.230.606 17.798.347 18.384.790 18.990.558 19.616.286 20.262.631 20.555.987 20.861.969 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.261.985 14.669.626 15.149.509 15.713.862 16.400.286 17.230.606 17.798.347 18.384.790 18.990.558 19.616.286 20.262.631 20.555.987 20.861.969 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.261.985 14.669.626 15.149.509 15.713.862 16.400.286 17.230.606 17.798.347 18.384.790 18.990.558 19.616.286 20.262.631 20.555.987 20.861.969 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.261.985 14.669.626 15.149.509 15.713.862 16.400.286 17.230.606 17.798.347 18.384.790 18.990.558 19.616.286 20.262.631 20.555.987 20.861.969
FI Baseline 2.059.178 2.196.264 2.376.392 2.611.138 2.914.662 3.304.149 3.348.974 3.394.408 3.440.457 3.487.132 3.534.439 3.547.468 3.565.180 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.059.178 2.196.264 2.376.392 2.611.138 2.914.662 3.304.149 3.348.974 3.394.408 3.440.457 3.487.132 3.534.439 3.547.468 3.565.180 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.059.178 2.196.264 2.376.392 2.611.138 2.914.662 3.304.149 3.348.974 3.394.408 3.440.457 3.487.132 3.534.439 3.547.468 3.565.180 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.059.178 2.196.264 2.376.392 2.611.138 2.914.662 3.304.149 3.348.974 3.394.408 3.440.457 3.487.132 3.534.439 3.547.468 3.565.180
FR Baseline 24.616.522 24.787.196 25.007.650 25.278.442 25.600.222 25.973.742 26.414.356 26.862.441 27.318.128 27.781.549 28.252.826 28.487.426 28.728.322 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 24.616.522 24.787.196 25.007.650 25.278.442 25.600.222 25.973.742 26.414.356 26.862.441 27.318.128 27.781.549 28.252.826 28.487.426 28.728.322 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 24.616.522 24.787.196 25.007.650 25.278.442 25.600.222 25.973.742 26.414.356 26.862.441 27.318.128 27.781.549 28.252.826 28.487.426 28.728.322 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 24.616.522 24.787.196 25.007.650 25.278.442 25.600.222 25.973.742 26.414.356 26.862.441 27.318.128 27.781.549 28.252.826 28.487.426 28.728.322
GR Baseline 2.183.905 2.296.958 2.416.735 2.543.709 2.678.388 2.821.321 2.906.702 2.994.668 3.085.295 3.178.665 3.274.861 3.260.072 3.249.110 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.183.905 2.296.958 2.416.735 2.543.709 2.678.388 2.821.321 2.906.702 2.994.668 3.085.295 3.178.665 3.274.861 3.260.072 3.249.110 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.183.905 2.296.958 2.416.735 2.543.709 2.678.388 2.821.321 2.906.702 2.994.668 3.085.295 3.178.665 3.274.861 3.260.072 3.249.110 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.183.905 2.296.958 2.416.735 2.543.709 2.678.388 2.821.321 2.906.702 2.994.668 3.085.295 3.178.665 3.274.861 3.260.072 3.249.110
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.685.949 2.743.858 2.803.015 2.861.322 2.927.816 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.685.949 2.743.858 2.803.015 2.861.322 2.927.816 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.685.949 2.743.858 2.803.015 2.861.322 2.927.816 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.685.949 2.743.858 2.803.015 2.861.322 2.927.816
IE Baseline 928.574 998.402 1.077.9641.168.839 1.272.870 1.392.205 1.438.952 1.487.269 1.537.208 1.588.824 1.642.173 1.669.273 1.697.068 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 928.574 998.402 1.077.964 1.168.839 1.272.870 1.392.205 1.438.952 1.487.269 1.537.208 1.588.824 1.642.173 1.669.273 1.697.068 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 928.574 998.402 1.077.964 1.168.839 1.272.870 1.392.205 1.438.952 1.487.269 1.537.208 1.588.824 1.642.173 1.669.273 1.697.068 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 928.574 998.402 1.077.964 1.168.839 1.272.870 1.392.205 1.438.952 1.487.269 1.537.208 1.588.824 1.642.173 1.669.273 1.697.068
IT Baseline 31.129.533 31.407.959 31.843.404 32.449.426 33.241.335 34.236.379 34.305.160 34.374.078 34.443.136 34.512.331 34.581.666 34.875.483 35.173.904 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 31.129.533 31.407.959 31.843.404 32.449.426 33.241.335 34.236.379 34.305.160 34.374.078 34.443.136 34.512.331 34.581.666 34.875.483 35.173.904 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 31.129.533 31.407.959 31.843.404 32.449.426 33.241.335 34.236.379 34.305.160 34.374.078 34.443.136 34.512.331 34.581.666 34.875.483 35.173.904 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 31.129.533 31.407.959 31.843.404 32.449.426 33.241.335 34.236.379 34.305.160 34.374.078 34.443.136 34.512.331 34.581.666 34.875.483 35.173.904
LU Baseline 219.751 220.142 223.055228.342 235.893 245.633 249.283 252.987 256.746 260.561 264.432 267.743 271.143 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 219.751 220.142 223.055 228.342 235.893 245.633 249.283 252.987 256.746 260.561 264.432 267.743 271.143 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 219.751 220.142 223.055 228.342 235.893 245.633 249.283 252.987 256.746 260.561 264.432 267.743 271.143 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 219.751 220.142 223.055 228.342 235.893 245.633 249.283 252.987 256.746 260.561 264.432 267.743 271.143
NL Baseline 5.901.587 5.952.354 6.009.118 6.072.039 6.141.283 6.217.023 6.303.098 6.390.365 6.478.839 6.568.538 6.659.479 6.757.026 6.857.187 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.901.587 5.952.354 6.009.118 6.072.039 6.141.283 6.217.023 6.303.098 6.390.365 6.478.839 6.568.538 6.659.479 6.757.026 6.857.187 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.901.587 5.952.354 6.009.118 6.072.039 6.141.283 6.217.023 6.303.098 6.390.365 6.478.839 6.568.538 6.659.479 6.757.026 6.857.187 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.901.587 5.952.354 6.009.118 6.072.039 6.141.283 6.217.023 6.303.098 6.390.365 6.478.839 6.568.538 6.659.479 6.757.026 6.857.187
PL Baseline 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.568.038 12.121.331 12.701.090 13.102.360 13.526.004 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.568.038 12.121.331 12.701.090 13.102.360 13.526.004 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.568.038 12.121.331 12.701.090 13.102.360 13.526.004 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.568.038 12.121.331 12.701.090 13.102.360 13.526.004
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.685.949 2.743.858 2.803.015 2.861.322 2.927.816 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.685.949 2.743.858 2.803.015 2.861.322 2.927.816 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.685.949 2.743.858 2.803.015 2.861.322 2.927.816 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.685.949 2.743.858 2.803.015 2.861.322 2.927.816
SE Baseline 928.574 998.402 1.077.9641.168.839 1.272.870 1.392.205 1.438.952 1.487.269 1.537.208 1.588.824 1.642.173 1.669.273 1.697.068 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 928.574 998.402 1.077.964 1.168.839 1.272.870 1.392.205 1.438.952 1.487.269 1.537.208 1.588.824 1.642.173 1.669.273 1.697.068 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 928.574 998.402 1.077.964 1.168.839 1.272.870 1.392.205 1.438.952 1.487.269 1.537.208 1.588.824 1.642.173 1.669.273 1.697.068 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 928.574 998.402 1.077.964 1.168.839 1.272.870 1.392.205 1.438.952 1.487.269 1.537.208 1.588.824 1.642.173 1.669.273 1.697.068
SI Baseline 31.129.533 31.407.959 31.843.404 32.449.426 33.241.335 34.236.379 34.305.160 34.374.078 34.443.136 34.512.331 34.581.666 34.875.483 35.173.904 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 31.129.533 31.407.959 31.843.404 32.449.426 33.241.335 34.236.379 34.305.160 34.374.078 34.443.136 34.512.331 34.581.666 34.875.483 35.173.904 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 31.129.533 31.407.959 31.843.404 32.449.426 33.241.335 34.236.379 34.305.160 34.374.078 34.443.136 34.512.331 34.581.666 34.875.483 35.173.904 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 31.129.533 31.407.959 31.843.404 32.449.426 33.241.335 34.236.379 34.305.160 34.374.078 34.443.136 34.512.331 34.581.666 34.875.483 35.173.904
UK Baseline 219.751 220.142 223.055228.342 235.893 245.633 249.283 252.987 256.746 260.561 264.432 267.743 271.143 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 219.751 220.142 223.055 228.342 235.893 245.633 249.283 252.987 256.746 260.561 264.432 267.743 271.143 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 219.751 220.142 223.055 228.342 235.893 245.633 249.283 252.987 256.746 260.561 264.432 267.743 271.143 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 219.751 220.142 223.055 228.342 235.893 245.633 249.283 252.987 256.746 260.561 264.432 267.743 271.143
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 131.847.171 133.581.402 135.389.491 137.229.845 139.101.293 141.004.448 142.939.922 144.908.348 146.910.381 148.946.677 151.017.910 153.124.775 155.267.975 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 131.847.167 133.581.396 135.389.483 137.321.168 139.363.651 141.428.271 143.518.702 145.631.448 147.763.470 149.915.743 152.087.516 154.279.199 156.494.081 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 131.847.167 133.581.396 135.389.483 137.279.705 139.233.098 141.170.975 143.131.554 145.113.257 147.114.799 149.138.673 151.186.155 153.259.375 155.362.894 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 131.847.167 133.581.396 135.389.483 137.286.189 139.264.277 141.259.312 143.284.880 145.339.308 147.419.344 149.526.704 151.659.955 153.818.957 156.005.305
EU15 Baseline 118.264.124 119.817.066 121.430.050 123.084.821 124.767.778 126.479.483 128.220.494 129.991.391 131.792.775 133.625.244 135.489.417 137.385.930 139.315.426 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 118.264.122 119.817.063 121.430.046 123.163.792 124.992.602 126.839.289 128.710.146 130.602.484 132.513.964 134.445.293 136.395.644 138.364.995 140.356.046 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 118.264.122 119.817.063 121.430.046 123.126.352 124.874.855 126.607.784 128.362.051 130.136.439 131.929.948 133.744.684 135.581.721 137.442.804 139.331.915 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 118.264.122 119.817.063 121.430.046 123.133.262 124.906.238 126.693.919 128.509.900 130.352.829 132.220.070 134.112.992 136.030.252 137.971.596 139.938.407
EU10 Baseline 13.583.047 13.764.336 13.959.441 14.145.024 14.333.515 14.524.965 14.719.428 14.916.956 15.117.606 15.321.432 15.528.493 15.738.845 15.952.549 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.583.045 13.764.332 13.959.437 14.157.376 14.371.050 14.588.982 14.808.556 15.028.964 15.249.506 15.470.449 15.691.872 15.914.203 16.138.035 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.583.045 13.764.332 13.959.437 14.153.353 14.358.243 14.563.191 14.769.503 14.976.818 15.184.851 15.393.989 15.604.433 15.816.570 16.030.980 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.583.045 13.764.332 13.959.437 14.152.927 14.358.039 14.565.393 14.774.981 14.986.479 15.199.273 15.413.713 15.629.703 15.847.362 16.066.898
AT Baseline 3.259.634 3.307.380 3.356.956 3.401.532 3.446.830 3.492.865 3.539.650 3.587.199 3.635.527 3.684.651 3.734.584 3.785.342 3.836.943 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.259.634 3.307.380 3.356.956 3.402.858 3.454.041 3.504.966 3.556.393 3.608.235 3.660.430 3.713.012 3.766.018 3.819.375 3.873.252 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.259.634 3.307.380 3.356.956 3.401.312 3.449.272 3.495.463 3.542.138 3.589.315 3.637.023 3.685.339 3.734.346 3.783.969 3.834.350 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.259.634 3.307.380 3.356.956 3.401.978 3.451.676 3.501.210 3.551.387 3.602.141 3.653.451 3.705.339 3.757.814 3.810.786 3.864.357
BE Baseline 3.469.537 3.518.446 3.568.531 3.605.656 3.643.240 3.681.289 3.719.812 3.758.815 3.798.305 3.838.292 3.878.782 3.919.784 3.961.305 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.469.535 3.518.443 3.568.528 3.608.262 3.653.955 3.700.163 3.746.471 3.792.578 3.837.984 3.882.766 3.927.002 3.970.911 4.014.672 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.469.535 3.518.443 3.568.528 3.606.962 3.650.092 3.692.622 3.735.223 3.777.755 3.819.869 3.861.648 3.903.210 3.944.732 3.986.374 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.469.535 3.518.443 3.568.528 3.606.997 3.650.468 3.694.014 3.737.770 3.781.608 3.825.256 3.868.760 3.912.167 3.955.477 3.998.743
CZ Baseline 1.643.184 1.698.878 1.758.402 1.797.872 1.838.307 1.879.734 1.922.178 1.965.666 2.010.225 2.055.883 2.102.667 2.150.609 2.199.737 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.643.184 1.698.878 1.758.402 1.798.186 1.839.065 1.880.758 1.923.427 1.967.132 2.011.855 2.057.689 2.104.722 2.153.029 2.202.777 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.643.184 1.698.878 1.758.402 1.797.692 1.837.666 1.878.149 1.919.515 1.961.912 2.005.382 2.050.121 2.096.247 2.143.845 2.193.078 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.643.184 1.698.878 1.758.402 1.797.737 1.837.893 1.878.842 1.920.774 1.963.780 2.007.892 2.053.237 2.099.911 2.148.005 2.197.649
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 31.679.804 32.204.309 32.740.492 33.223.638 33.714.813 34.214.172 34.721.872 35.238.077 35.762.952 36.296.669 36.839.399 37.391.321 37.952.614 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 31.679.804 32.204.309 32.740.492 33.258.862 33.803.179 34.350.507 34.902.547 35.458.715 36.019.377 36.584.728 37.154.317 37.728.497 38.308.155 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 31.679.804 32.204.309 32.740.492 33.246.303 33.763.878 34.272.587 34.785.386 35.301.948 35.823.257 36.349.528 36.880.792 37.417.882 37.962.029 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 31.679.804 32.204.309 32.740.492 33.248.347 33.774.080 34.301.950 34.836.378 35.376.860 35.923.103 36.475.512 37.033.489 37.597.273 38.167.351
DK Baseline 1.212.912 1.222.522 1.237.099 1.243.452 1.249.871 1.256.357 1.262.911 1.269.533 1.276.225 1.282.986 1.289.818 1.296.722 1.303.697 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.212.912 1.222.522 1.237.099 1.244.573 1.252.874 1.261.856 1.271.104 1.280.415 1.289.572 1.298.374 1.306.713 1.314.609 1.322.184 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.212.912 1.222.522 1.237.099 1.244.385 1.252.257 1.260.482 1.268.819 1.277.084 1.285.139 1.292.883 1.300.304 1.307.473 1.314.519 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.212.912 1.222.522 1.237.099 1.244.292 1.252.008 1.260.059 1.268.283 1.276.554 1.284.703 1.292.652 1.300.338 1.307.799 1.315.112
ES Baseline 13.634.208 13.849.336 14.074.672 14.353.345 14.637.973 14.928.691 15.225.636 15.528.955 15.838.788 16.155.289 16.478.609 16.808.903 17.146.333 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.634.208 13.849.336 14.074.672 14.355.842 14.647.647 14.944.583 15.248.205 15.558.508 15.875.149 16.198.440 16.528.504 16.865.402 17.209.308 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.634.208 13.849.336 14.074.672 14.352.850 14.637.779 14.924.801 15.217.760 15.516.751 15.821.358 16.132.132 16.449.376 16.773.367 17.104.496 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.634.208 13.849.336 14.074.672 14.353.790 14.641.501 14.934.114 15.233.419 15.539.559 15.852.352 16.172.143 16.499.066 16.833.192 17.174.719
FI Baseline 2.626.442 2.647.586 2.673.647 2.716.640 2.760.412 2.804.975 2.850.344 2.896.534 2.943.563 2.991.444 3.040.196 3.089.833 3.140.373 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.626.442 2.647.586 2.673.647 2.718.153 2.765.551 2.815.048 2.866.282 2.919.091 2.973.186 3.028.060 3.083.117 3.137.902 3.192.269 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.626.442 2.647.586 2.673.647 2.717.992 2.764.820 2.813.111 2.862.508 2.912.701 2.963.428 3.014.367 3.065.300 3.116.235 3.167.425 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.626.442 2.647.586 2.673.647 2.717.857 2.764.408 2.812.499 2.861.987 2.912.742 2.964.502 3.016.983 3.069.820 3.122.765 3.175.768
FR Baseline 17.331.897 17.483.773 17.639.668 17.851.093 18.065.527 18.283.025 18.503.642 18.727.432 18.954.458 19.184.775 19.418.444 19.655.528 19.896.090 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 17.331.897 17.483.773 17.639.668 17.857.481 18.089.868 18.323.279 18.559.520 18.798.195 19.038.640 19.281.267 19.526.037 19.772.823 20.021.767 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 17.331.897 17.483.773 17.639.668 17.852.686 18.075.178 18.295.718 18.518.937 18.744.837 18.972.831 19.203.496 19.436.951 19.673.185 19.912.410 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 17.331.897 17.483.773 17.639.668 17.853.885 18.079.915 18.307.621 18.538.767 18.773.190 19.010.449 19.250.692 19.493.793 19.739.472 19.987.762
GR Baseline 635.200 634.563 634.703643.375 652.188 661.144 670.246 679.495 688.894 698.446 708.154 718.020 728.046 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 635.200 634.563 634.703 643.551 652.754 662.158 671.701 681.378 691.169 701.088 711.136 721.315 731.629 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 635.200 634.563 634.703 643.547 652.732 662.159 671.750 681.493 691.346 701.333 711.450 721.693 732.069 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 635.200 634.563 634.703 643.533 652.658 661.960 671.407 680.997 690.701 700.540 710.509 720.606 730.839
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 1.089.341 1.119.635 1.153.162 1.172.771 1.192.866 1.213.462 1.234.573 1.256.214 1.278.399 1.301.142 1.324.461 1.348.370 1.372.888 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.089.341 1.119.635 1.153.162 1.173.505 1.194.510 1.216.051 1.238.222 1.261.100 1.284.792 1.309.358 1.334.830 1.361.216 1.388.564 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.089.341 1.119.635 1.153.162 1.173.152 1.193.551 1.214.358 1.235.849 1.258.066 1.281.081 1.304.946 1.329.703 1.355.378 1.381.993 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.089.341 1.119.635 1.153.162 1.173.159 1.193.651 1.214.688 1.236.406 1.258.857 1.282.095 1.306.221 1.331.293 1.357.353 1.384.375
IE Baseline 909.631 925.043 940.848965.758 991.370 1.017.705 1.044.782 1.072.624 1.101.254 1.130.693 1.160.965 1.192.096 1.224.109 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 909.631 925.043 940.848 966.462 993.455 1.020.929 1.049.080 1.077.915 1.107.453 1.137.709 1.168.682 1.200.386 1.232.862 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 909.631 925.043 940.848 966.174 992.468 1.018.957 1.046.121 1.073.957 1.102.483 1.131.728 1.161.706 1.192.444 1.223.987 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 909.631 925.043 940.848 966.278 992.916 1.020.086 1.047.980 1.076.600 1.105.939 1.136.022 1.166.855 1.198.441 1.230.816
IT Baseline 16.868.119 17.014.459 17.163.063 17.259.120 17.356.128 17.454.098 17.553.041 17.652.967 17.753.889 17.855.814 17.958.757 18.062.730 18.167.741 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16.868.119 17.014.459 17.163.063 17.265.820 17.377.512 17.489.836 17.603.321 17.717.515 17.831.475 17.945.334 18.059.145 18.172.496 18.285.820 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16.868.119 17.014.459 17.163.063 17.262.382 17.367.268 17.470.574 17.574.457 17.678.772 17.782.547 17.886.247 17.990.076 18.093.858 18.198.161 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16.868.119 17.014.459 17.163.063 17.263.204 17.370.189 17.477.666 17.586.458 17.696.393 17.806.793 17.917.863 18.029.425 18.141.245 18.253.444
LU Baseline 233.865 236.922 240.065242.430 244.825 247.253 249.712 252.204 254.729 257.288 259.881 262.508 265.170 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 233.865 236.922 240.065 242.679 245.659 248.421 251.174 253.901 256.588 259.236 261.852 264.448 267.045 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 233.865 236.922 240.065 242.452 244.981 247.108 249.269 251.457 253.680 255.953 258.285 260.680 263.139 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 233.865 236.922 240.065 242.581 245.415 248.075 250.745 253.406 256.049 258.670 261.271 263.862 266.455
NL Baseline 3.900.435 3.959.600 4.020.337 4.079.135 4.138.918 4.199.703 4.261.509 4.324.354 4.388.257 4.453.238 4.519.316 4.586.512 4.654.846 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.900.435 3.959.600 4.020.337 4.082.487 4.148.524 4.215.800 4.283.555 4.351.638 4.420.047 4.489.023 4.558.720 4.629.230 4.700.670 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.900.435 3.959.600 4.020.337 4.081.208 4.144.395 4.207.634 4.271.554 4.336.176 4.401.525 4.467.748 4.534.837 4.602.754 4.671.558 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.900.435 3.959.600 4.020.337 4.081.121 4.144.495 4.208.620 4.273.602 4.339.407 4.405.939 4.473.356 4.541.655 4.610.828 4.680.891
PL Baseline 6.506.908 6.726.719 6.958.723 7.141.688 7.329.937 7.523.633 7.722.943 7.928.043 8.139.113 8.356.338 8.579.911 8.810.027 9.046.893 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.506.908 6.726.719 6.958.723 7.142.358 7.331.334 7.524.434 7.722.937 7.927.023 8.137.146 8.353.075 8.574.799 8.802.520 9.037.201 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.506.908 6.726.719 6.958.723 7.140.504 7.325.733 7.513.581 7.706.493 7.904.882 8.109.465 8.320.059 8.536.546 8.759.002 8.988.230 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.506.908 6.726.719 6.958.723 7.140.848 7.327.337 7.518.147 7.714.363 7.916.235 8.124.217 8.338.349 8.558.747 8.785.632 9.019.598
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 1.416.986 1.412.565 1.408.494 1.425.917 1.443.636 1.461.658 1.479.987 1.498.630 1.517.593 1.536.883 1.556.506 1.576.467 1.596.775 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.416.986 1.412.565 1.408.494 1.426.090 1.444.282 1.462.682 1.481.323 1.500.237 1.519.362 1.538.766 1.558.474 1.578.505 1.598.870 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.416.986 1.412.565 1.408.494 1.425.752 1.443.145 1.460.615 1.478.431 1.496.635 1.515.094 1.533.870 1.552.959 1.572.360 1.592.076 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.416.986 1.412.565 1.408.494 1.425.788 1.443.317 1.461.026 1.479.076 1.497.504 1.516.249 1.535.345 1.554.791 1.574.587 1.594.736
SE Baseline 3.132.927 3.174.146 3.223.171 3.270.753 3.319.136 3.368.335 3.418.365 3.469.241 3.520.981 3.573.599 3.627.112 3.681.538 3.736.893 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.132.927 3.174.146 3.223.171 3.274.749 3.329.028 3.384.845 3.441.288 3.498.156 3.555.395 3.612.892 3.670.477 3.728.191 3.786.218 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.132.927 3.174.146 3.223.171 3.274.032 3.326.541 3.379.401 3.432.466 3.485.567 3.538.837 3.592.341 3.646.138 3.700.409 3.755.402 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.132.927 3.174.146 3.223.171 3.273.749 3.325.971 3.379.028 3.432.705 3.486.901 3.541.508 3.596.587 3.652.025 3.707.926 3.764.383
SI Baseline 391.227 399.963 409.396420.310 431.560 443.159 455.116 467.443 480.154 493.259 506.772 520.706 535.075 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 391.227 399.963 409.396 420.650 432.411 444.469 456.901 469.720 482.960 496.600 510.633 525.082 539.980 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 391.227 399.963 409.396 420.539 432.024 443.680 455.686 468.079 480.926 494.230 507.990 522.220 536.929 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 391.227 399.963 409.396 420.552 432.128 444.030 456.332 469.045 482.185 495.755 509.749 524.179 539.063
UK Baseline 17.952.527 18.226.416 18.508.304 18.802.975 19.102.911 19.408.215 19.718.987 20.035.333 20.357.360 20.685.177 21.018.895 21.358.627 21.704.490 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 17.952.527 18.226.416 18.508.304 18.815.923 19.134.272 19.454.218 19.778.179 20.106.007 20.438.137 20.774.600 21.115.453 21.460.906 21.811.324 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 17.952.527 18.226.416 18.508.304 18.808.316 19.110.049 19.406.553 19.707.232 20.011.991 20.321.529 20.636.070 20.955.991 21.281.763 21.613.919 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 17.952.527 18.226.416 18.508.304 18.809.861 19.117.221 19.425.991 19.739.936 20.058.967 20.383.077 20.712.527 21.047.232 21.387.338 21.733.033
stock total 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 179.775.493 181.818.164 184.294.403 187.297.278 190.864.964 195.032.066 197.843.896 200.674.281 203.575.641 206.529.436 209.576.004 211.968.596 214.460.170 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 179.775.493 181.818.164 184.294.403 187.297.278 190.864.964 195.032.066 197.843.896 200.674.281 203.575.641 206.529.436 209.576.005 211.968.594 214.460.168 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 179.775.493 181.818.164 184.294.403 187.297.278 190.864.964 195.032.066 197.843.896 200.674.281 203.575.641 206.529.436 209.576.005 211.968.594 214.460.168 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 179.775.493 181.818.164 184.294.403 187.297.278 190.864.964 195.032.066 197.843.896 200.674.281 203.575.641 206.529.436 209.576.005 211.968.594 214.460.168
EU15 Baseline 160.108.909 161.864.136 164.032.603 166.678.797 169.858.887 173.621.683 176.093.106 178.596.972 181.157.488 183.766.893 186.443.963 188.617.833 190.871.043 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 160.108.909 161.864.136 164.032.603 166.678.797 169.858.887 173.621.683 176.093.106 178.596.972 181.157.488 183.766.893 186.443.963 188.617.832 190.871.041 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 160.108.909 161.864.136 164.032.603 166.678.797 169.858.887 173.621.683 176.093.106 178.596.972 181.157.488 183.766.893 186.443.963 188.617.832 190.871.041 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 160.108.909 161.864.136 164.032.603 166.678.797 169.858.887 173.621.683 176.093.106 178.596.972 181.157.488 183.766.893 186.443.963 188.617.832 190.871.041
EU10 Baseline 19.666.584 19.954.027 20.261.799 20.618.481 21.006.076 21.410.383 21.750.790 22.077.308 22.418.153 22.762.543 23.132.041 23.350.763 23.589.128 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 19.666.584 19.954.027 20.261.799 20.618.481 21.006.076 21.410.383 21.750.790 22.077.308 22.418.153 22.762.543 23.132.042 23.350.762 23.589.126 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 19.666.584 19.954.027 20.261.799 20.618.481 21.006.076 21.410.383 21.750.790 22.077.308 22.418.153 22.762.543 23.132.042 23.350.762 23.589.126 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 19.666.584 19.954.027 20.261.799 20.618.481 21.006.076 21.410.383 21.750.790 22.077.308 22.418.153 22.762.543 23.132.042 23.350.762 23.589.126
AT Baseline 3.553.913 3.579.316 3.612.318 3.653.112 3.701.486 3.756.956 3.803.125 3.849.862 3.897.173 3.945.065 3.993.546 4.047.896 4.104.394 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.553.913 3.579.316 3.612.318 3.653.112 3.701.486 3.756.956 3.803.125 3.849.862 3.897.173 3.945.065 3.993.546 4.047.896 4.104.394 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.553.913 3.579.316 3.612.318 3.653.112 3.701.486 3.756.956 3.803.125 3.849.862 3.897.173 3.945.065 3.993.546 4.047.896 4.104.394 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.553.913 3.579.316 3.612.318 3.653.112 3.701.486 3.756.956 3.803.125 3.849.862 3.897.173 3.945.065 3.993.546 4.047.896 4.104.394
BE Baseline 4.265.987 4.334.461 4.399.521 4.484.137 4.573.027 4.653.951 4.708.606 4.747.368 4.793.271 4.837.365 4.897.224 4.964.262 5.032.888 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.265.987 4.334.461 4.399.521 4.484.137 4.573.027 4.653.951 4.708.606 4.747.368 4.793.271 4.837.365 4.897.224 4.964.262 5.032.887 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.265.987 4.334.461 4.399.521 4.484.137 4.573.027 4.653.951 4.708.606 4.747.368 4.793.271 4.837.365 4.897.224 4.964.262 5.032.887 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.265.987 4.334.461 4.399.521 4.484.137 4.573.027 4.653.951 4.708.606 4.747.368 4.793.271 4.837.365 4.897.224 4.964.262 5.032.887
CZ Baseline 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.581.122 3.680.365 3.792.508 3.912.388 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.581.122 3.680.365 3.792.508 3.912.388 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.581.122 3.680.365 3.792.508 3.912.388 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.484.555 3.581.122 3.680.365 3.792.508 3.912.388
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 40.522.099 40.648.188 40.780.961 40.920.392 41.066.461 41.219.147 41.673.614 42.133.091 42.597.634 43.067.301 43.542.143 44.251.206 44.975.774 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 40.522.099 40.648.188 40.780.961 40.920.392 41.066.461 41.219.147 41.673.614 42.133.091 42.597.634 43.067.302 43.542.143 44.251.206 44.975.774 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 40.522.099 40.648.188 40.780.961 40.920.392 41.066.461 41.219.147 41.673.614 42.133.091 42.597.634 43.067.302 43.542.143 44.251.206 44.975.774 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 40.522.099 40.648.188 40.780.961 40.920.392 41.066.461 41.219.147 41.673.614 42.133.091 42.597.634 43.067.302 43.542.143 44.251.206 44.975.774
DK Baseline 1.681.292 1.702.058 1.732.040 1.771.720 1.821.647 1.882.441 1.893.549 1.904.723 1.915.963 1.927.269 1.938.642 1.938.367 1.942.474 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.681.292 1.702.058 1.732.040 1.771.720 1.821.647 1.882.441 1.893.549 1.904.723 1.915.963 1.927.269 1.938.642 1.938.367 1.942.474 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.681.292 1.702.058 1.732.040 1.771.720 1.821.647 1.882.441 1.893.549 1.904.723 1.915.963 1.927.269 1.938.642 1.938.367 1.942.474 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.681.292 1.702.058 1.732.040 1.771.720 1.821.647 1.882.441 1.893.549 1.904.723 1.915.963 1.927.269 1.938.642 1.938.367 1.942.474
ES Baseline 14.261.985 14.669.626 15.149.509 15.713.862 16.400.286 17.230.606 17.798.347 18.384.790 18.990.558 19.616.286 20.262.631 20.555.987 20.861.969 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.261.985 14.669.626 15.149.509 15.713.862 16.400.286 17.230.606 17.798.347 18.384.790 18.990.558 19.616.286 20.262.631 20.555.987 20.861.969 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.261.985 14.669.626 15.149.509 15.713.862 16.400.286 17.230.606 17.798.347 18.384.790 18.990.558 19.616.286 20.262.631 20.555.987 20.861.969 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.261.985 14.669.626 15.149.509 15.713.862 16.400.286 17.230.606 17.798.347 18.384.790 18.990.558 19.616.286 20.262.631 20.555.987 20.861.969
FI Baseline 2.059.178 2.196.264 2.376.392 2.611.138 2.914.662 3.304.149 3.348.974 3.394.408 3.440.457 3.487.132 3.534.439 3.547.468 3.565.180 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.059.178 2.196.264 2.376.392 2.611.138 2.914.662 3.304.149 3.348.974 3.394.408 3.440.457 3.487.132 3.534.439 3.547.468 3.565.180 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.059.178 2.196.264 2.376.392 2.611.138 2.914.662 3.304.149 3.348.974 3.394.408 3.440.457 3.487.132 3.534.439 3.547.468 3.565.180 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.059.178 2.196.264 2.376.392 2.611.138 2.914.662 3.304.149 3.348.974 3.394.408 3.440.457 3.487.132 3.534.439 3.547.468 3.565.180
FR Baseline 24.616.522 24.787.196 25.007.650 25.278.442 25.600.222 25.973.742 26.414.356 26.862.441 27.318.128 27.781.549 28.252.826 28.487.426 28.728.322 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 24.616.522 24.787.196 25.007.650 25.278.442 25.600.222 25.973.742 26.414.356 26.862.441 27.318.128 27.781.549 28.252.826 28.487.426 28.728.322 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 24.616.522 24.787.196 25.007.650 25.278.442 25.600.222 25.973.742 26.414.356 26.862.441 27.318.128 27.781.549 28.252.826 28.487.426 28.728.322 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 24.616.522 24.787.196 25.007.650 25.278.442 25.600.222 25.973.742 26.414.356 26.862.441 27.318.128 27.781.549 28.252.826 28.487.426 28.728.322
GR Baseline 2.183.905 2.296.958 2.416.735 2.543.709 2.678.388 2.821.321 2.906.702 2.994.668 3.085.295 3.178.665 3.274.861 3.260.072 3.249.110 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.183.905 2.296.958 2.416.735 2.543.709 2.678.388 2.821.321 2.906.702 2.994.668 3.085.295 3.178.665 3.274.861 3.260.072 3.249.110 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.183.905 2.296.958 2.416.735 2.543.709 2.678.388 2.821.321 2.906.702 2.994.668 3.085.295 3.178.665 3.274.861 3.260.072 3.249.110 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.183.905 2.296.958 2.416.735 2.543.709 2.678.388 2.821.321 2.906.702 2.994.668 3.085.295 3.178.665 3.274.861 3.260.072 3.249.110
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.685.949 2.743.858 2.803.015 2.861.322 2.927.816 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.685.949 2.743.858 2.803.015 2.861.322 2.927.816 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.685.949 2.743.858 2.803.015 2.861.322 2.927.816 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.629.263 2.685.949 2.743.858 2.803.015 2.861.322 2.927.816
IE Baseline 928.574 998.402 1.077.9641.168.839 1.272.870 1.392.205 1.438.952 1.487.269 1.537.208 1.588.824 1.642.173 1.669.273 1.697.068 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 928.574 998.402 1.077.964 1.168.839 1.272.870 1.392.205 1.438.952 1.487.269 1.537.208 1.588.824 1.642.173 1.669.273 1.697.068 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 928.574 998.402 1.077.964 1.168.839 1.272.870 1.392.205 1.438.952 1.487.269 1.537.208 1.588.824 1.642.173 1.669.273 1.697.068 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 928.574 998.402 1.077.964 1.168.839 1.272.870 1.392.205 1.438.952 1.487.269 1.537.208 1.588.824 1.642.173 1.669.273 1.697.068
IT Baseline 31.129.533 31.407.959 31.843.404 32.449.426 33.241.335 34.236.379 34.305.160 34.374.078 34.443.136 34.512.331 34.581.666 34.875.483 35.173.904 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 31.129.533 31.407.959 31.843.404 32.449.426 33.241.335 34.236.379 34.305.160 34.374.078 34.443.136 34.512.331 34.581.666 34.875.483 35.173.904 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 31.129.533 31.407.959 31.843.404 32.449.426 33.241.335 34.236.379 34.305.160 34.374.078 34.443.136 34.512.331 34.581.666 34.875.483 35.173.904 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 31.129.533 31.407.959 31.843.404 32.449.426 33.241.335 34.236.379 34.305.160 34.374.078 34.443.136 34.512.331 34.581.666 34.875.483 35.173.904
LU Baseline 219.751 220.142 223.055228.342 235.893 245.633 249.283 252.987 256.746 260.561 264.432 267.743 271.143 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 219.751 220.142 223.055 228.342 235.893 245.633 249.283 252.987 256.746 260.561 264.432 267.743 271.143 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 219.751 220.142 223.055 228.342 235.893 245.633 249.283 252.987 256.746 260.561 264.432 267.743 271.143 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 219.751 220.142 223.055 228.342 235.893 245.633 249.283 252.987 256.746 260.561 264.432 267.743 271.143
NL Baseline 5.901.587 5.952.354 6.009.118 6.072.039 6.141.283 6.217.023 6.303.098 6.390.365 6.478.839 6.568.538 6.659.479 6.757.026 6.857.187 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.901.587 5.952.354 6.009.118 6.072.039 6.141.283 6.217.023 6.303.098 6.390.365 6.478.839 6.568.538 6.659.479 6.757.026 6.857.187 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.901.587 5.952.354 6.009.118 6.072.039 6.141.283 6.217.023 6.303.098 6.390.365 6.478.839 6.568.538 6.659.479 6.757.026 6.857.187 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.901.587 5.952.354 6.009.118 6.072.039 6.141.283 6.217.023 6.303.098 6.390.365 6.478.839 6.568.538 6.659.479 6.757.026 6.857.187
PL Baseline 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.568.038 12.121.331 12.701.090 13.102.360 13.526.004 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.568.038 12.121.331 12.701.090 13.102.360 13.526.004 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.568.038 12.121.331 12.701.090 13.102.360 13.526.004 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.040.000 11.568.038 12.121.331 12.701.090 13.102.360 13.526.004
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 2.276.226 2.437.370 2.610.431 2.796.323 2.996.032 3.210.622 3.263.448 3.317.143 3.371.722 3.427.199 3.483.588 3.470.302 3.457.860 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.276.226 2.437.370 2.610.431 2.796.323 2.996.032 3.210.622 3.263.448 3.317.143 3.371.722 3.427.199 3.483.588 3.470.302 3.457.860 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.276.226 2.437.370 2.610.431 2.796.323 2.996.032 3.210.622 3.263.448 3.317.143 3.371.722 3.427.199 3.483.588 3.470.302 3.457.860 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.276.226 2.437.370 2.610.431 2.796.323 2.996.032 3.210.622 3.263.448 3.317.143 3.371.722 3.427.199 3.483.588 3.470.302 3.457.860
SE Baseline 3.775.120 3.778.530 3.789.301 3.807.269 3.832.285 3.864.218 3.917.242 3.970.993 4.025.481 4.080.717 4.136.711 4.166.265 4.203.900 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.775.120 3.778.530 3.789.301 3.807.269 3.832.285 3.864.218 3.917.242 3.970.993 4.025.481 4.080.717 4.136.711 4.166.265 4.203.900 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.775.120 3.778.530 3.789.301 3.807.269 3.832.285 3.864.218 3.917.242 3.970.993 4.025.481 4.080.717 4.136.711 4.166.265 4.203.900 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.775.120 3.778.530 3.789.301 3.807.269 3.832.285 3.864.218 3.917.242 3.970.993 4.025.481 4.080.717 4.136.711 4.166.265 4.203.900
SI Baseline 849.583 849.583 849.583849.583 849.583 849.583 860.895 872.357 883.971 895.741 907.667 924.323 942.546 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 849.583 849.583 849.583 849.583 849.583 849.583 860.894 872.357 883.971 895.741 907.667 924.323 942.546 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 849.583 849.583 849.583 849.583 849.583 849.583 860.894 872.357 883.971 895.741 907.667 924.323 942.546 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 849.583 849.583 849.583 849.583 849.583 849.583 860.894 872.357 883.971 895.741 907.667 924.323 942.546
UK Baseline 22.733.237 22.855.312 23.004.204 23.180.047 23.383.010 23.613.289 24.068.649 24.532.788 25.005.878 25.488.092 25.979.602 26.359.057 26.749.869 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 22.733.237 22.855.312 23.004.204 23.180.047 23.383.010 23.613.289 24.068.649 24.532.788 25.005.878 25.488.092 25.979.602 26.359.057 26.749.869 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 22.733.237 22.855.312 23.004.204 23.180.047 23.383.010 23.613.289 24.068.649 24.532.788 25.005.878 25.488.092 25.979.602 26.359.057 26.749.869 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 22.733.237 22.855.312 23.004.204 23.180.047 23.383.010 23.613.289 24.068.649 24.532.788 25.005.878 25.488.092 25.979.602 26.359.057 26.749.869
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 217.055.647 219.760.991 222.583.729 225.528.930 228.523.538 231.568.519 234.664.844 237.813.510 241.015.555 244.272.014 247.583.956 250.952.475 254.378.688 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 217.055.642 219.760.983 222.583.718 225.678.347 228.892.324 232.137.658 235.422.440 238.743.518 242.112.094 245.525.103 248.982.721 252.487.805 256.043.516 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 217.055.642 219.760.983 222.583.718 225.569.730 228.545.207 231.409.777 234.306.064 237.227.897 240.199.285 243.212.949 246.274.921 249.392.877 252.574.471 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 217.055.642 219.760.983 222.583.718 225.592.530 228.646.595 231.690.904 234.780.878 237.913.964 241.099.922 244.337.027 247.626.478 250.971.469 254.374.740
EU15 Baseline 193.207.571 195.632.204 198.150.956 200.768.910 203.431.106 206.138.422 208.891.732 211.691.939 214.539.985 217.436.805 220.383.367 223.380.663 226.429.703 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 193.207.569 195.632.201 198.150.951 200.898.627 203.748.651 206.623.564 209.533.515 212.476.066 215.461.723 218.487.740 221.554.554 224.664.606 227.820.733 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 193.207.569 195.632.201 198.150.951 200.799.528 203.432.143 205.960.483 208.517.427 211.097.761 213.723.442 216.388.250 219.097.973 221.859.416 224.679.361 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 193.207.569 195.632.201 198.150.950 200.821.485 203.528.250 206.223.881 208.960.456 211.735.907 214.559.433 217.429.468 220.347.354 223.315.928 226.337.685
EU10 Baseline 23.848.076 24.128.787 24.432.773 24.760.020 25.092.432 25.430.097 25.773.112 26.121.571 26.475.570 26.835.209 27.200.590 27.571.812 27.948.985 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 23.848.074 24.128.783 24.432.767 24.779.721 25.143.673 25.514.094 25.888.925 26.267.453 26.650.371 27.037.363 27.428.167 27.823.199 28.222.783 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 23.848.074 24.128.783 24.432.767 24.770.202 25.113.065 25.449.294 25.788.637 26.130.135 26.475.843 26.824.698 27.176.948 27.533.461 27.895.110 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 23.848.074 24.128.783 24.432.767 24.771.045 25.118.344 25.467.023 25.820.422 26.178.057 26.540.489 26.907.558 27.279.124 27.655.541 28.037.055
AT Baseline 4.163.102 4.224.081 4.287.398 4.344.329 4.402.183 4.460.977 4.520.729 4.581.457 4.643.180 4.705.920 4.769.692 4.834.519 4.900.422 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.163.102 4.224.081 4.287.398 4.348.000 4.413.178 4.478.155 4.543.759 4.610.006 4.676.971 4.744.733 4.813.254 4.882.461 4.952.408 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.163.102 4.224.081 4.287.398 4.345.926 4.406.817 4.465.395 4.524.592 4.584.372 4.644.851 4.706.002 4.767.801 4.830.217 4.893.375 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.163.102 4.224.081 4.287.398 4.346.653 4.409.535 4.472.044 4.535.344 4.599.413 4.664.282 4.729.985 4.796.463 4.863.646 4.931.576
BE Baseline 5.103.146 5.175.084 5.248.751 5.303.357 5.358.637 5.414.601 5.471.262 5.528.629 5.586.713 5.645.527 5.705.082 5.765.389 5.826.459 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.103.144 5.175.080 5.248.746 5.307.521 5.370.109 5.432.500 5.495.467 5.558.852 5.622.510 5.686.354 5.750.246 5.814.398 5.878.894 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.103.144 5.175.080 5.248.746 5.304.041 5.359.499 5.410.855 5.462.803 5.515.074 5.567.892 5.620.939 5.674.206 5.728.042 5.782.644 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.103.144 5.175.080 5.248.746 5.305.022 5.363.257 5.420.224 5.477.902 5.536.181 5.595.081 5.654.487 5.714.344 5.774.753 5.835.751
CZ Baseline 4.040.524 4.177.474 4.323.842 4.420.896 4.520.325 4.622.193 4.726.561 4.833.497 4.943.065 5.055.334 5.170.376 5.288.262 5.409.067 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.040.524 4.177.474 4.323.842 4.421.784 4.522.110 4.624.111 4.728.434 4.835.135 4.944.769 5.057.011 5.171.912 5.289.380 5.409.388 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.040.524 4.177.474 4.323.842 4.418.906 4.514.005 4.607.520 4.703.253 4.801.085 4.901.816 5.004.542 5.108.925 5.214.307 5.320.322 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.040.524 4.177.474 4.323.842 4.419.668 4.516.727 4.614.532 4.714.673 4.817.151 4.922.435 5.030.109 5.140.059 5.252.019 5.365.883
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 45.716.283 46.473.181 47.246.934 47.944.148 48.652.950 49.373.561 50.106.210 50.851.131 51.608.565 52.378.757 53.161.956 53.958.421 54.768.408 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 45.716.283 46.473.181 47.246.934 47.989.472 48.755.285 49.521.148 50.295.404 51.077.977 51.871.203 52.674.729 53.488.052 54.311.925 55.147.209 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 45.716.283 46.473.181 47.246.934 47.956.739 48.652.373 49.308.019 49.970.974 50.640.359 51.321.263 52.012.634 52.715.335 53.431.266 54.162.349 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 45.716.283 46.473.181 47.246.934 47.966.530 48.691.144 49.406.888 50.133.112 50.869.644 51.618.290 52.378.982 53.151.493 53.936.600 54.734.941
DK Baseline 1.951.716 1.967.180 1.990.634 2.000.857 2.011.186 2.021.624 2.032.170 2.042.826 2.053.593 2.064.473 2.075.467 2.086.575 2.097.800 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.951.716 1.967.180 1.990.634 2.003.246 2.016.651 2.030.534 2.044.254 2.057.752 2.071.060 2.084.244 2.097.305 2.110.292 2.123.237 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.951.716 1.967.180 1.990.634 2.003.004 2.015.859 2.028.801 2.041.518 2.053.959 2.066.220 2.078.347 2.090.371 2.102.345 2.114.310 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.951.716 1.967.180 1.990.634 2.002.726 2.015.186 2.027.801 2.040.330 2.052.745 2.065.028 2.077.259 2.089.409 2.101.523 2.113.615
ES Baseline 21.181.527 21.515.741 21.865.813 22.298.748 22.740.933 23.192.580 23.653.903 24.125.125 24.606.469 25.098.171 25.600.467 26.113.599 26.637.817 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 21.181.527 21.515.741 21.865.813 22.305.977 22.761.327 23.225.857 23.699.548 24.182.221 24.675.506 25.179.086 25.693.431 26.218.889 26.755.753 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 21.181.527 21.515.741 21.865.813 22.298.867 22.737.684 23.175.491 23.621.276 24.074.704 24.538.537 25.011.841 25.495.432 25.989.864 26.495.601 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 21.181.527 21.515.741 21.865.813 22.299.875 22.743.199 23.192.467 23.651.156 24.119.230 24.598.163 25.087.682 25.588.259 26.100.225 26.623.872
FI Baseline 3.588.143 3.617.029 3.652.632 3.711.369 3.771.168 3.832.048 3.894.029 3.957.133 4.021.382 4.086.796 4.153.398 4.221.211 4.290.257 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.588.143 3.617.029 3.652.632 3.716.441 3.783.639 3.852.360 3.922.024 3.992.555 4.063.939 4.136.121 4.208.934 4.282.412 4.356.633 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.588.143 3.617.029 3.652.632 3.715.529 3.780.313 3.845.031 3.910.582 3.976.860 4.043.916 4.111.603 4.179.770 4.248.524 4.318.048 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.588.143 3.617.029 3.652.632 3.715.514 3.780.635 3.846.570 3.913.519 3.981.433 4.050.235 4.119.926 4.190.359 4.261.564 4.333.592
FR Baseline 28.975.651 29.229.559 29.490.187 29.843.650 30.202.142 30.565.757 30.934.587 31.308.721 31.688.266 32.073.312 32.463.963 32.860.322 33.262.496 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 28.975.651 29.229.559 29.490.187 29.854.408 30.229.937 30.604.234 30.982.533 31.364.684 31.752.517 32.145.680 32.544.372 32.949.015 33.360.042 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 28.975.651 29.229.559 29.490.187 29.836.905 30.173.426 30.485.831 30.801.550 31.119.976 31.444.905 31.775.745 32.113.703 32.460.168 32.816.479 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 28.975.651 29.229.559 29.490.187 29.842.429 30.195.454 30.541.889 30.893.199 31.249.276 31.612.020 31.981.174 32.357.245 32.740.780 33.132.321
GR Baseline 3.241.979 3.238.728 3.239.441 3.283.705 3.328.687 3.374.396 3.420.847 3.468.053 3.516.025 3.564.778 3.614.325 3.664.679 3.715.855 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.241.979 3.238.728 3.239.441 3.285.603 3.334.351 3.384.438 3.435.207 3.486.551 3.538.653 3.591.464 3.644.965 3.699.162 3.754.042 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.241.979 3.238.728 3.239.441 3.285.271 3.332.820 3.380.681 3.428.991 3.477.630 3.526.998 3.576.935 3.627.458 3.678.600 3.730.366 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.241.979 3.238.728 3.239.441 3.285.151 3.332.551 3.380.727 3.429.577 3.479.023 3.529.188 3.580.056 3.631.604 3.683.833 3.736.759
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 3.002.694 3.086.196 3.178.613 3.232.661 3.288.053 3.344.825 3.403.017 3.462.667 3.523.817 3.586.509 3.650.785 3.716.690 3.784.270 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.002.694 3.086.196 3.178.613 3.233.661 3.290.208 3.348.027 3.407.358 3.468.298 3.531.288 3.596.242 3.663.215 3.732.237 3.804.030 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.002.694 3.086.196 3.178.613 3.231.878 3.285.212 3.337.492 3.390.743 3.444.760 3.499.969 3.555.860 3.612.319 3.669.293 3.728.045 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.002.694 3.086.196 3.178.613 3.232.268 3.286.679 3.341.542 3.397.687 3.455.085 3.514.042 3.574.443 3.636.367 3.699.933 3.765.885
IE Baseline 1.725.576 1.754.812 1.784.794 1.832.049 1.880.635 1.930.591 1.981.957 2.034.774 2.089.084 2.144.930 2.202.357 2.261.412 2.322.141 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.725.576 1.754.812 1.784.794 1.834.462 1.886.456 1.939.722 1.994.238 2.049.994 2.107.042 2.165.429 2.225.130 2.286.191 2.348.667 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.725.576 1.754.812 1.784.794 1.833.818 1.884.164 1.934.683 1.986.312 2.039.030 2.093.013 2.148.286 2.204.851 2.262.816 2.322.267 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.725.576 1.754.812 1.784.794 1.833.906 1.884.716 1.936.463 1.989.487 2.043.788 2.099.384 2.156.340 2.214.647 2.274.352 2.335.511
IT Baseline 35.476.980 35.784.764 36.097.307 36.299.335 36.503.360 36.709.411 36.917.508 37.127.672 37.339.928 37.554.300 37.770.808 37.989.483 38.210.342 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 35.476.980 35.784.764 36.097.307 36.312.242 36.536.382 36.761.948 36.987.616 37.212.916 37.440.202 37.668.505 37.898.438 38.130.170 38.364.087 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 35.476.980 35.784.764 36.097.307 36.298.441 36.493.864 36.673.097 36.852.111 37.029.440 37.209.315 37.389.828 37.572.313 37.757.364 37.945.697 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 35.476.980 35.784.764 36.097.307 36.300.272 36.503.291 36.701.832 36.901.759 37.102.330 37.305.703 37.510.987 37.718.780 37.929.358 38.142.967
LU Baseline 274.636 278.225 281.917284.693 287.507 290.357 293.245 296.172 299.137 302.142 305.187 308.272 311.399 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 274.636 278.225 281.917 285.063 288.525 291.783 295.031 298.247 301.424 304.560 307.661 310.745 313.831 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 274.636 278.225 281.917 284.792 287.707 290.164 292.660 295.186 297.770 300.422 303.157 305.982 308.895 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 274.636 278.225 281.917 284.925 288.168 291.220 294.287 297.351 300.407 303.453 306.493 309.537 312.598
NL Baseline 6.960.024 7.065.600 7.173.979 7.278.900 7.385.578 7.494.044 7.604.332 7.716.474 7.830.504 7.946.458 8.064.369 8.184.275 8.306.212 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.960.024 7.065.600 7.173.979 7.283.745 7.398.156 7.515.286 7.634.205 7.754.716 7.877.143 8.001.247 8.126.917 8.254.143 8.382.987 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.960.024 7.065.600 7.173.979 7.281.280 7.390.200 7.498.086 7.606.949 7.716.463 7.827.373 7.939.410 8.052.781 8.167.766 8.284.681 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.960.024 7.065.600 7.173.979 7.281.215 7.390.806 7.501.442 7.613.727 7.727.507 7.843.060 7.960.301 8.079.252 8.199.999 8.322.632
PL Baseline 13.973.207 14.445.241 14.943.456 15.336.362 15.740.616 16.156.563 16.584.572 17.025.013 17.478.273 17.944.753 18.424.861 18.919.024 19.427.681 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.973.207 14.445.241 14.943.456 15.337.693 15.741.660 16.152.342 16.574.064 17.007.066 17.452.655 17.909.581 18.376.861 18.854.433 19.344.387 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.973.207 14.445.241 14.943.456 15.325.708 15.706.727 16.081.038 16.466.042 16.859.524 17.261.771 17.668.974 18.078.584 18.489.970 18.906.680 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.973.207 14.445.241 14.943.456 15.329.979 15.721.503 16.116.634 16.522.870 16.939.519 17.366.992 17.803.529 18.247.995 18.700.276 19.162.494
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 3.446.262 3.435.510 3.425.607 3.467.982 3.511.078 3.554.908 3.599.487 3.644.829 3.690.950 3.737.865 3.785.588 3.834.137 3.883.528 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.446.262 3.435.510 3.425.607 3.469.101 3.514.724 3.561.642 3.609.066 3.656.794 3.705.077 3.753.777 3.802.997 3.852.846 3.903.431 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.446.262 3.435.510 3.425.607 3.468.227 3.511.307 3.553.726 3.596.216 3.638.636 3.681.649 3.725.149 3.769.437 3.814.714 3.861.055 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.446.262 3.435.510 3.425.607 3.468.119 3.511.308 3.554.813 3.598.776 3.643.118 3.688.169 3.733.874 3.780.382 3.827.793 3.876.157
SE Baseline 4.250.273 4.306.193 4.372.703 4.437.255 4.502.893 4.569.639 4.637.511 4.706.533 4.776.725 4.848.109 4.920.708 4.994.544 5.069.641 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.250.273 4.306.193 4.372.703 4.442.503 4.515.197 4.589.334 4.664.040 4.739.192 4.814.999 4.891.573 4.968.969 5.047.320 5.126.759 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.250.273 4.306.193 4.372.703 4.440.974 4.510.193 4.578.799 4.647.939 4.717.544 4.787.928 4.858.969 4.930.652 5.003.031 5.076.299 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.250.273 4.306.193 4.372.703 4.440.869 4.510.428 4.580.565 4.651.539 4.723.295 4.795.872 4.869.354 4.943.682 5.018.959 5.095.243
SI Baseline 962.378 983.869 1.007.0731.033.920 1.061.595 1.090.126 1.119.539 1.149.864 1.181.130 1.213.367 1.246.608 1.280.885 1.316.232 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 962.378 983.868 1.007.073 1.034.261 1.062.269 1.090.812 1.120.239 1.150.613 1.182.091 1.214.648 1.248.321 1.283.183 1.319.305 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 962.378 983.868 1.007.073 1.033.531 1.059.882 1.085.737 1.112.451 1.140.042 1.168.747 1.198.502 1.229.359 1.261.387 1.294.642 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 962.378 983.868 1.007.073 1.033.798 1.060.937 1.088.392 1.116.761 1.146.084 1.176.498 1.207.996 1.240.624 1.274.443 1.309.513
UK Baseline 27.152.273 27.566.517 27.992.858 28.438.532 28.892.171 29.353.928 29.823.954 30.302.411 30.789.462 31.285.268 31.789.999 32.303.825 32.826.925 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 27.152.273 27.566.517 27.992.858 28.460.843 28.944.736 29.434.623 29.931.123 30.433.609 30.943.477 31.460.239 31.983.882 32.514.637 33.052.752 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 27.152.273 27.566.517 27.992.858 28.445.716 28.895.916 29.331.823 29.772.954 30.218.528 30.671.812 31.132.141 31.600.705 32.078.719 32.567.292 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 27.152.273 27.566.517 27.992.858 28.448.279 28.908.572 29.368.936 29.836.742 30.311.573 30.794.552 31.285.609 31.784.942 32.293.005 32.810.151
Fix resource costs small cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 0 93.267 91.067 88.995 87.046 85.226 86.805 88.428 90.252 92.325 99.034 101.072 103.144 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 93.267 91.067 88.995 87.046 85.226 86.805 88.428 90.252 92.325 99.034 101.072 103.144 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 93.267 91.067 88.995 87.046 85.226 86.805 88.428 90.252 92.325 99.034 101.072 103.144 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 93.267 91.067 88.995 87.046 85.226 86.805 88.428 90.252 92.325 99.034 101.072 103.144
EU15 Baseline 0 86.259 84.181 82.210 80.343 78.585 80.005 81.454 83.090 84.945 88.932 90.746 92.607 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 86.259 84.181 82.210 80.343 78.585 80.005 81.454 83.090 84.945 88.932 90.746 92.607 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 86.259 84.181 82.210 80.343 78.585 80.005 81.454 83.090 84.945 88.932 90.746 92.607 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 86.259 84.181 82.210 80.343 78.585 80.005 81.454 83.090 84.945 88.932 90.746 92.607
EU10 Baseline 0 7.007 6.886 6.785 6.702 6.641 6.800 6.973 7.163 7.380 10.102 10.326 10.537 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 7.007 6.886 6.785 6.702 6.641 6.800 6.973 7.163 7.380 10.102 10.326 10.537 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 7.007 6.886 6.785 6.702 6.641 6.800 6.973 7.163 7.380 10.102 10.326 10.537 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 7.007 6.886 6.785 6.702 6.641 6.800 6.973 7.163 7.380 10.102 10.326 10.537
AT Baseline 0,0 1.295,3 1.205,5 1.118,3 1.033,7 951,2 970,1 994,5 1.020,2 1.056,7 1.095,2 1.136,9 1.180,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.295,3 1.205,5 1.118,3 1.033,7 951,2 970,1 994,5 1.020,2 1.056,7 1.095,2 1.136,9 1.180,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.295,3 1.205,5 1.118,3 1.033,7 951,2 970,1 994,5 1.020,2 1.056,7 1.095,2 1.136,9 1.180,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.295,3 1.205,5 1.118,3 1.033,7 951,2 970,1 994,5 1.020,2 1.056,7 1.095,2 1.136,9 1.180,0
BE Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.045,1 2.098,5 2.147,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.045,1 2.098,5 2.147,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.045,1 2.098,5 2.147,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.045,1 2.098,5 2.147,8
CZ Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.326,4 1.412,3 1.470,2 1.529,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.326,4 1.412,3 1.470,2 1.529,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.326,4 1.412,3 1.470,2 1.529,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.326,4 1.412,3 1.470,2 1.529,2
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 0,0 17.318,9 17.216,9 17.122,9 17.040,7 16.967,6 17.195,0 17.450,2 17.751,3 18.094,5 18.451,6 18.920,0 19.413,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 17.318,9 17.216,9 17.122,9 17.040,7 16.967,6 17.195,0 17.450,2 17.751,3 18.094,5 18.451,6 18.920,0 19.413,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 17.318,9 17.216,9 17.122,9 17.040,7 16.967,6 17.195,0 17.450,2 17.751,3 18.094,5 18.451,6 18.920,0 19.413,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 17.318,9 17.216,9 17.122,9 17.040,7 16.967,6 17.195,0 17.450,2 17.751,3 18.094,5 18.451,6 18.920,0 19.413,1
DK Baseline 0,0 797,6 755,5 715,5 677,5 641,4 644,9 648,4 653,6 668,0 683,0 694,9 708,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 797,6 755,5 715,5 677,5 641,4 644,9 648,4 653,6 668,0 683,0 694,9 708,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 797,6 755,5 715,5 677,5 641,4 644,9 648,4 653,6 668,0 683,0 694,9 708,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 797,6 755,5 715,5 677,5 641,4 644,9 648,4 653,6 668,0 683,0 694,9 708,3
ES Baseline 0,0 6.429,0 6.150,6 5.858,7 5.554,6 5.260,2 5.436,6 5.655,4 5.898,2 6.155,9 6.426,1 6.588,7 6.747,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 6.429,0 6.150,6 5.858,7 5.554,6 5.260,2 5.436,6 5.655,4 5.898,2 6.155,9 6.426,1 6.588,7 6.747,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.429,0 6.150,6 5.858,7 5.554,6 5.260,2 5.436,6 5.655,4 5.898,2 6.155,9 6.426,1 6.588,7 6.747,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.429,0 6.150,6 5.858,7 5.554,6 5.260,2 5.436,6 5.655,4 5.898,2 6.155,9 6.426,1 6.588,7 6.747,5
FI Baseline 0,0 804,8 764,4 722,1 678,5 634,3 795,9 813,1 832,1 861,3 891,3 913,0 934,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 804,8 764,4 722,1 678,5 634,3 795,9 813,1 832,1 861,3 891,3 913,0 934,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 804,8 764,4 722,1 678,5 634,3 795,9 813,1 832,1 861,3 891,3 913,0 934,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 804,8 764,4 722,1 678,5 634,3 795,9 813,1 832,1 861,3 891,3 913,0 934,2
FR Baseline 0,0 16.090,0 15.775,7 15.481,1 15.185,6 14.888,1 15.127,4 15.382,7 15.675,2 15.992,2 16.325,9 16.533,6 16.748,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 16.090,0 15.775,7 15.481,1 15.185,6 14.888,1 15.127,4 15.382,7 15.675,2 15.992,2 16.325,9 16.533,6 16.748,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 16.090,0 15.775,7 15.481,1 15.185,6 14.888,1 15.127,4 15.382,7 15.675,2 15.992,2 16.325,9 16.533,6 16.748,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 16.090,0 15.775,7 15.481,1 15.185,6 14.888,1 15.127,4 15.382,7 15.675,2 15.992,2 16.325,9 16.533,6 16.748,3
GR Baseline 0,0 1.116,4 1.166,8 1.224,1 1.287,0 1.358,1 1.415,2 1.469,1 1.525,0 1.589,6 1.659,1 1.674,6 1.678,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.116,4 1.166,8 1.224,1 1.287,0 1.358,1 1.415,2 1.469,1 1.525,0 1.589,6 1.659,1 1.674,6 1.678,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.116,4 1.166,8 1.224,1 1.287,0 1.358,1 1.415,2 1.469,1 1.525,0 1.589,6 1.659,1 1.674,6 1.678,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.116,4 1.166,8 1.224,1 1.287,0 1.358,1 1.415,2 1.469,1 1.525,0 1.589,6 1.659,1 1.674,6 1.678,5
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.073,5 1.132,9 1.169,9 1.204,1 1.240,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.073,5 1.132,9 1.169,9 1.204,1 1.240,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.073,5 1.132,9 1.169,9 1.204,1 1.240,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.073,5 1.132,9 1.169,9 1.204,1 1.240,6
IE Baseline 0,0 769,3 787,8 806,7 826,6 847,0 877,3 909,1 943,9 990,8 1.040,1 1.074,0 1.106,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 769,3 787,8 806,7 826,6 847,0 877,3 909,1 943,9 990,8 1.040,1 1.074,0 1.106,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 769,3 787,8 806,7 826,6 847,0 877,3 909,1 943,9 990,8 1.040,1 1.074,0 1.106,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 769,3 787,8 806,7 826,6 847,0 877,3 909,1 943,9 990,8 1.040,1 1.074,0 1.106,3
IT Baseline 0,0 19.281,8 18.573,8 17.895,5 17.253,9 16.645,6 16.729,8 16.905,9 17.118,2 17.343,2 17.577,0 17.932,9 18.309,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 19.281,8 18.573,8 17.895,5 17.253,9 16.645,6 16.729,8 16.905,9 17.118,2 17.343,2 17.577,0 17.932,9 18.309,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 19.281,8 18.573,8 17.895,5 17.253,9 16.645,6 16.729,8 16.905,9 17.118,2 17.343,2 17.577,0 17.932,9 18.309,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 19.281,8 18.573,8 17.895,5 17.253,9 16.645,6 16.729,8 16.905,9 17.118,2 17.343,2 17.577,0 17.932,9 18.309,8
LU Baseline 0,0 149,6 128,4 110,3 94,9 81,7 83,2 85,1 87,3 90,3 93,2 95,8 98,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 149,6 128,4 110,3 94,9 81,7 83,2 85,1 87,3 90,3 93,2 95,8 98,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 149,6 128,4 110,3 94,9 81,7 83,2 85,1 87,3 90,3 93,2 95,8 98,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 149,6 128,4 110,3 94,9 81,7 83,2 85,1 87,3 90,3 93,2 95,8 98,4
NL Baseline 0,0 3.162,5 3.097,3 3.036,1 2.979,5 2.928,0 2.983,7 3.052,2 3.130,2 3.217,3 3.306,5 3.400,3 3.496,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 3.162,5 3.097,3 3.036,1 2.979,5 2.928,0 2.983,7 3.052,2 3.130,2 3.217,3 3.306,5 3.400,3 3.496,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.162,5 3.097,3 3.036,1 2.979,5 2.928,0 2.983,7 3.052,2 3.130,2 3.217,3 3.306,5 3.400,3 3.496,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.162,5 3.097,3 3.036,1 2.979,5 2.928,0 2.983,7 3.052,2 3.130,2 3.217,3 3.306,5 3.400,3 3.496,2
PL Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 3.802,1 4.106,5 4.350,6 4.526,5 4.704,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 3.802,1 4.106,5 4.350,6 4.526,5 4.704,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 3.802,1 4.106,5 4.350,6 4.526,5 4.704,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 3.802,1 4.106,5 4.350,6 4.526,5 4.704,9
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 0,0 1.524,0 1.655,9 1.799,1 1.955,9 2.126,2 2.166,3 2.209,0 2.258,2 2.310,5 2.365,2 2.374,3 2.380,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.524,0 1.655,9 1.799,1 1.955,9 2.126,2 2.166,3 2.209,0 2.258,2 2.310,5 2.365,2 2.374,3 2.380,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.524,0 1.655,9 1.799,1 1.955,9 2.126,2 2.166,3 2.209,0 2.258,2 2.310,5 2.365,2 2.374,3 2.380,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.524,0 1.655,9 1.799,1 1.955,9 2.126,2 2.166,3 2.209,0 2.258,2 2.310,5 2.365,2 2.374,3 2.380,6
SE Baseline 0,0 1.467,0 1.382,6 1.303,3 1.229,3 1.159,7 1.176,8 1.196,8 1.218,1 1.245,0 1.273,1 1.294,2 1.318,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.467,0 1.382,6 1.303,3 1.229,3 1.159,7 1.176,8 1.196,8 1.218,1 1.245,0 1.273,1 1.294,2 1.318,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.467,0 1.382,6 1.303,3 1.229,3 1.159,7 1.176,8 1.196,8 1.218,1 1.245,0 1.273,1 1.294,2 1.318,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.467,0 1.382,6 1.303,3 1.229,3 1.159,7 1.176,8 1.196,8 1.218,1 1.245,0 1.273,1 1.294,2 1.318,1
SI Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 322,9 328,5 334,4 340,7 347,6 356,7 367,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 322,9 328,5 334,4 340,7 347,6 356,7 367,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 322,9 328,5 334,4 340,7 347,6 356,7 367,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 322,9 328,5 334,4 340,7 347,6 356,7 367,0
UK Baseline 0,0 16.053,2 15.519,7 15.016,3 14.545,7 14.096,3 14.402,7 14.682,9 14.978,1 15.329,7 15.699,6 16.014,3 16.339,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 16.053,2 15.519,7 15.016,3 14.545,7 14.096,3 14.402,7 14.682,9 14.978,1 15.329,7 15.699,6 16.014,3 16.339,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 16.053,2 15.519,7 15.016,3 14.545,7 14.096,3 14.402,7 14.682,9 14.978,1 15.329,7 15.699,6 16.014,3 16.339,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 16.053,2 15.519,7 15.016,3 14.545,7 14.096,3 14.402,7 14.682,9 14.978,1 15.329,7 15.699,6 16.014,3 16.339,8
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 105.298 107.531 109.844 112.261 114.749 117.295 119.898 122.558 125.277 128.061 130.914 133.837 136.831 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 105.298 107.531 109.844 112.199 114.752 117.568 120.412 123.282 126.195 129.146 132.134 135.161 138.228 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 105.298 107.531 109.844 112.430 115.447 118.962 122.453 125.958 129.506 133.083 136.686 140.318 143.977 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 105.298 107.531 109.844 112.270 114.925 117.836 120.761 123.712 126.702 129.728 132.788 135.885 139.021
EU15 Baseline 94.539 96.540 98.609 100.764 102.979 105.246 107.562 109.928 112.345 114.819 117.352 119.945 122.600 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 94.539 96.540 98.609 100.717 103.005 105.529 108.077 110.646 113.251 115.886 118.552 121.251 123.985 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 94.539 96.540 98.609 100.925 103.629 106.780 109.905 113.037 116.204 119.392 122.600 125.830 129.081 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 94.539 96.540 98.609 100.780 103.158 105.765 108.382 111.019 113.689 116.388 119.116 121.875 124.666
EU10 Baseline 10.759 10.992 11.236 11.497 11.770 12.049 12.336 12.630 12.932 13.242 13.562 13.892 14.231 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.759 10.992 11.236 11.482 11.748 12.039 12.335 12.636 12.945 13.260 13.582 13.909 14.243 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.759 10.992 11.236 11.505 11.818 12.182 12.548 12.921 13.302 13.691 14.087 14.488 14.896 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.759 10.992 11.236 11.490 11.768 12.072 12.380 12.693 13.013 13.340 13.672 14.011 14.356
AT Baseline 1.223,5 1.266,8 1.309,0 1.347,1 1.382,8 1.416,6 1.448,7 1.480,1 1.511,4 1.543,4 1.576,5 1.610,9 1.646,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.223,5 1.266,8 1.309,0 1.342,0 1.373,8 1.405,8 1.436,2 1.465,6 1.495,1 1.525,1 1.556,2 1.588,4 1.621,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.223,5 1.266,8 1.309,0 1.344,9 1.382,0 1.421,7 1.459,1 1.495,5 1.532,2 1.569,9 1.609,0 1.649,6 1.691,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.223,5 1.266,8 1.309,0 1.342,9 1.375,9 1.409,0 1.440,3 1.470,6 1.500,9 1.531,8 1.563,7 1.596,8 1.630,9
BE Baseline 2.196,8 2.246,4 2.297,3 2.340,5 2.384,2 2.429,0 2.475,1 2.522,5 2.571,1 2.621,2 2.672,8 2.725,8 2.780,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.196,8 2.246,4 2.297,3 2.339,0 2.381,2 2.427,4 2.474,3 2.522,4 2.572,1 2.623,5 2.676,0 2.729,8 2.784,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.196,8 2.246,4 2.297,3 2.343,3 2.393,1 2.450,3 2.507,1 2.564,9 2.624,4 2.685,1 2.746,6 2.809,0 2.872,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.196,8 2.246,4 2.297,3 2.340,5 2.384,6 2.432,5 2.481,0 2.530,4 2.581,3 2.633,5 2.686,8 2.741,2 2.796,6
CZ Baseline 1.591,2 1.656,7 1.726,2 1.776,3 1.826,6 1.878,1 1.930,7 1.984,5 2.039,7 2.096,8 2.156,6 2.220,2 2.288,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.591,2 1.656,7 1.726,2 1.778,1 1.831,9 1.889,4 1.948,1 2.008,0 2.069,8 2.133,9 2.201,5 2.273,7 2.351,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.591,2 1.656,7 1.726,2 1.781,2 1.839,9 1.905,1 1.971,0 2.038,1 2.107,5 2.179,8 2.256,5 2.339,1 2.428,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.591,2 1.656,7 1.726,2 1.779,0 1.833,9 1.892,4 1.952,0 2.012,7 2.075,3 2.140,2 2.208,7 2.282,0 2.361,0
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 19.921,6 20.444,6 20.981,4 21.490,1 22.008,8 22.540,3 23.084,3 23.640,5 24.208,7 24.789,9 25.383,8 25.990,5 26.609,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 19.921,6 20.444,6 20.981,4 21.475,8 21.999,7 22.566,9 23.140,5 23.721,5 24.312,9 24.914,0 25.524,6 26.145,3 26.776,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 19.921,6 20.444,6 20.981,4 21.509,6 22.095,6 22.751,0 23.399,6 24.053,3 24.717,2 25.389,6 26.070,3 26.760,1 27.459,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 19.921,6 20.444,6 20.981,4 21.484,9 22.019,0 22.591,7 23.167,5 23.750,7 24.344,1 24.947,0 25.559,5 26.182,2 26.815,3
DK Baseline 724,7 744,6 768,4 787,6 805,4 821,7 836,1 848,6 860,1 871,7 884,0 897,0 910,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 724,7 744,6 768,4 778,2 789,0 800,3 810,1 818,7 826,5 834,4 842,9 851,7 860,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 724,7 744,6 768,4 780,4 795,2 812,1 826,6 839,1 850,6 862,4 875,2 889,1 903,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 724,7 744,6 768,4 778,9 790,8 803,3 814,2 823,7 832,5 841,3 850,6 860,3 870,0
ES Baseline 6.913,7 7.087,1 7.267,8 7.478,2 7.695,8 7.918,5 8.146,4 8.379,5 8.618,1 8.862,9 9.114,6 9.374,0 9.641,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.913,7 7.087,1 7.267,8 7.482,1 7.714,2 7.965,4 8.219,3 8.475,4 8.735,7 9.000,0 9.269,0 9.543,5 9.824,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.913,7 7.087,1 7.267,8 7.497,2 7.761,2 8.060,8 8.360,0 8.660,4 8.965,5 9.274,7 9.589,0 9.909,2 10.236,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.913,7 7.087,1 7.267,8 7.486,5 7.725,1 7.982,5 8.241,7 8.503,3 8.769,0 9.038,7 9.313,1 9.592,9 9.878,9
FI Baseline 957,8 984,7 1.015,7 1.055,6 1.097,4 1.138,0 1.175,5 1.209,2 1.239,6 1.267,6 1.295,4 1.324,6 1.356,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 957,8 984,7 1.015,7 1.048,2 1.083,7 1.120,1 1.153,0 1.182,2 1.208,2 1.232,0 1.255,6 1.280,8 1.308,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 957,8 984,7 1.015,7 1.050,5 1.091,3 1.135,0 1.174,2 1.208,7 1.239,4 1.267,7 1.296,1 1.326,6 1.360,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 957,8 984,7 1.015,7 1.048,9 1.085,6 1.123,2 1.157,4 1.187,9 1.215,1 1.240,2 1.265,0 1.291,3 1.320,1
FR Baseline 16.975,1 17.213,6 17.463,6 17.776,4 18.104,3 18.444,9 18.798,5 19.165,2 19.545,0 19.938,4 20.345,2 20.765,2 21.197,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16.975,1 17.213,6 17.463,6 17.783,5 18.138,2 18.539,0 18.947,1 19.362,3 19.787,7 20.221,4 20.662,5 21.110,6 21.565,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16.975,1 17.213,6 17.463,6 17.821,4 18.253,4 18.769,0 19.281,9 19.799,1 20.325,2 20.856,8 21.392,1 21.930,5 22.471,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16.975,1 17.213,6 17.463,6 17.795,5 18.168,0 18.585,1 19.006,9 19.435,7 19.873,6 20.319,2 20.771,4 21.230,1 21.694,4
GR Baseline 1.685,9 1.697,0 1.711,8 1.751,6 1.799,2 1.848,9 1.900,8 1.954,6 2.010,5 2.068,5 2.128,4 2.190,2 2.253,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.685,9 1.697,0 1.711,8 1.748,1 1.792,0 1.840,3 1.890,3 1.941,8 1.994,9 2.049,4 2.105,4 2.162,8 2.221,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.685,9 1.697,0 1.711,8 1.749,8 1.799,2 1.856,4 1.915,1 1.975,3 2.037,3 2.101,0 2.166,4 2.233,3 2.301,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.685,9 1.697,0 1.711,8 1.748,6 1.793,8 1.843,6 1.895,0 1.947,9 2.002,4 2.058,5 2.116,1 2.175,1 2.235,6
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 1.279,9 1.322,6 1.368,9 1.399,2 1.429,6 1.461,4 1.494,7 1.530,0 1.567,7 1.608,8 1.653,8 1.703,3 1.757,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.279,9 1.322,6 1.368,9 1.400,0 1.432,3 1.467,7 1.504,9 1.544,3 1.586,8 1.632,7 1.682,6 1.736,5 1.794,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.279,9 1.322,6 1.368,9 1.401,9 1.437,1 1.477,3 1.519,2 1.564,0 1.612,7 1.665,9 1.724,1 1.787,2 1.855,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.279,9 1.322,6 1.368,9 1.400,6 1.433,4 1.469,2 1.506,7 1.546,5 1.589,4 1.635,9 1.686,4 1.741,2 1.799,8
IE Baseline 1.139,5 1.173,6 1.208,6 1.255,8 1.305,6 1.356,6 1.408,9 1.462,2 1.516,6 1.572,1 1.628,5 1.686,0 1.744,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.139,5 1.173,6 1.208,6 1.248,2 1.291,3 1.338,8 1.387,3 1.436,8 1.487,2 1.538,8 1.591,4 1.645,1 1.700,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.139,5 1.173,6 1.208,6 1.251,0 1.301,0 1.359,1 1.418,0 1.477,9 1.538,8 1.600,8 1.663,7 1.727,6 1.792,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.139,5 1.173,6 1.208,6 1.249,1 1.293,9 1.343,0 1.393,1 1.444,2 1.496,3 1.549,4 1.603,6 1.658,9 1.715,3
IT Baseline 18.691,8 19.077,2 19.464,5 19.789,7 20.108,1 20.424,5 20.738,5 21.050,2 21.359,9 21.668,9 21.978,4 22.289,5 22.603,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 18.691,8 19.077,2 19.464,5 19.803,0 20.157,2 20.542,2 20.919,0 21.287,0 21.649,7 22.006,7 22.359,1 22.708,3 23.055,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 18.691,8 19.077,2 19.464,5 19.844,3 20.276,7 20.778,9 21.262,6 21.734,4 22.199,6 22.657,1 23.108,1 23.554,1 23.996,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 18.691,8 19.077,2 19.464,5 19.815,8 20.187,4 20.589,3 20.980,2 21.362,5 21.739,0 22.109,4 22.474,8 22.836,7 23.195,9
LU Baseline 101,1 103,8 106,4 108,6 110,7 112,8 114,9 117,0 119,2 121,4 123,6 125,8 128,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 101,1 103,8 106,4 107,9 109,5 111,6 113,6 115,7 117,9 120,0 122,2 124,4 126,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 101,1 103,8 106,4 108,5 111,2 115,0 118,6 122,1 125,5 128,7 131,7 134,4 137,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 101,1 103,8 106,4 108,1 110,0 112,3 114,6 116,9 119,3 121,6 123,9 126,1 128,3
NL Baseline 3.593,3 3.690,7 3.787,8 3.881,1 3.974,9 4.071,1 4.171,4 4.276,4 4.385,4 4.497,7 4.611,7 4.727,1 4.843,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.593,3 3.690,7 3.787,8 3.878,3 3.973,6 4.079,3 4.189,0 4.302,8 4.420,6 4.540,1 4.659,7 4.778,5 4.896,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.593,3 3.690,7 3.787,8 3.887,4 4.001,5 4.137,6 4.278,6 4.425,4 4.577,7 4.732,5 4.887,0 5.039,9 5.191,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.593,3 3.690,7 3.787,8 3.881,4 3.981,7 4.093,0 4.208,0 4.327,2 4.450,3 4.575,3 4.700,2 4.824,4 4.948,0
PL Baseline 4.891,6 5.087,4 5.293,4 5.463,5 5.636,3 5.813,4 5.995,2 6.183,2 6.380,2 6.589,0 6.811,4 7.049,0 7.301,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.891,6 5.087,4 5.293,4 5.467,9 5.649,6 5.841,9 6.038,6 6.242,5 6.457,7 6.687,3 6.933,3 7.196,9 7.477,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.891,6 5.087,4 5.293,4 5.474,5 5.667,0 5.875,2 6.086,0 6.304,9 6.537,4 6.786,9 7.055,3 7.344,2 7.652,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.891,6 5.087,4 5.293,4 5.469,7 5.653,1 5.846,4 6.043,7 6.248,1 6.463,9 6.694,2 6.941,0 7.205,7 7.487,8
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 2.389,4 2.400,8 2.414,9 2.468,7 2.529,5 2.593,7 2.661,1 2.730,7 2.801,0 2.870,5 2.937,3 3.000,9 3.061,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.389,4 2.400,8 2.414,9 2.470,6 2.538,4 2.616,4 2.697,6 2.780,2 2.862,7 2.942,6 3.018,2 3.088,9 3.155,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.389,4 2.400,8 2.414,9 2.475,5 2.556,5 2.656,2 2.759,1 2.863,4 2.967,2 3.067,2 3.161,4 3.248,9 3.331,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.389,4 2.400,8 2.414,9 2.472,1 2.543,1 2.624,4 2.708,7 2.794,6 2.880,4 2.963,4 3.042,0 3.115,4 3.184,7
SE Baseline 1.346,2 1.378,9 1.416,4 1.454,4 1.493,0 1.531,2 1.568,0 1.603,0 1.636,9 1.671,3 1.708,0 1.748,0 1.791,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.346,2 1.378,9 1.416,4 1.450,2 1.486,5 1.524,7 1.560,9 1.594,8 1.627,3 1.660,4 1.695,8 1.734,5 1.776,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.346,2 1.378,9 1.416,4 1.453,7 1.496,7 1.544,5 1.588,7 1.629,5 1.668,5 1.708,2 1.751,0 1.798,0 1.849,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.346,2 1.378,9 1.416,4 1.451,4 1.489,4 1.529,5 1.567,2 1.602,6 1.636,6 1.671,1 1.707,9 1.748,0 1.791,4
SI Baseline 378,2 390,2 403,0 417,6 432,8 448,6 464,9 481,9 499,4 517,7 536,7 556,6 577,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 378,2 390,2 403,0 417,7 433,5 450,5 468,0 485,9 504,4 523,5 543,2 563,5 584,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 378,2 390,2 403,0 418,5 436,0 455,6 475,5 495,9 516,8 538,4 560,5 583,4 607,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 378,2 390,2 403,0 418,0 434,2 451,7 469,6 488,0 506,9 526,3 546,4 567,1 588,6
UK Baseline 16.678,4 17.030,0 17.394,8 17.778,9 18.179,8 18.597,8 19.033,9 19.488,4 19.961,4 20.453,4 20.963,4 21.489,9 22.031,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16.678,4 17.030,0 17.394,8 17.762,0 18.176,3 18.651,2 19.139,1 19.638,9 20.152,3 20.677,7 21.213,7 21.759,0 22.312,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16.678,4 17.030,0 17.394,8 17.807,3 18.314,7 18.932,4 19.555,6 20.188,7 20.834,8 21.490,2 22.152,5 22.819,3 23.488,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16.678,4 17.030,0 17.394,8 17.775,5 18.209,6 18.702,4 19.205,5 19.720,3 20.248,2 20.787,5 21.337,0 21.895,2 22.460,3
variable resource costs small cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 0 77.379 77.236 72.556 73.151 80.701 79.633 77.194 80.492 89.958 101.252 101.371 101.402 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 77.379 77.236 72.556 73.151 80.701 79.633 77.194 80.492 89.958 101.252 101.371 101.402 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 77.379 77.236 72.556 73.151 80.701 79.633 77.194 80.492 89.958 101.252 101.371 101.402 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 77.379 77.236 72.556 73.151 80.701 79.633 77.194 80.492 89.958 101.252 101.371 101.402
EU15 Baseline 0 70.572 70.340 66.019 66.440 72.955 72.084 69.842 72.586 80.992 89.275 89.441 89.506 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 70.572 70.340 66.019 66.440 72.955 72.084 69.842 72.586 80.992 89.275 89.441 89.506 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 70.572 70.340 66.019 66.440 72.955 72.084 69.842 72.586 80.992 89.275 89.441 89.506 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 70.572 70.340 66.019 66.440 72.955 72.084 69.842 72.586 80.992 89.275 89.441 89.506
EU10 Baseline 0 6.807 6.895 6.538 6.711 7.745 7.549 7.352 7.906 8.965 11.977 11.930 11.896 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 6.807 6.895 6.538 6.711 7.745 7.549 7.352 7.906 8.965 11.977 11.930 11.896 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 6.807 6.895 6.538 6.711 7.745 7.549 7.352 7.906 8.965 11.977 11.930 11.896 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 6.807 6.895 6.538 6.711 7.745 7.549 7.352 7.906 8.965 11.977 11.930 11.896
AT Baseline 0,0 1.242,6 1.191,5 1.055,6 983,3 1.014,2 996,5 962,7 959,5 1.100,7 1.184,5 1.189,6 1.194,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.242,6 1.191,5 1.055,6 983,3 1.014,2 996,5 962,7 959,5 1.100,7 1.184,5 1.189,6 1.194,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.242,6 1.191,5 1.055,6 983,3 1.014,2 996,5 962,7 959,5 1.100,7 1.184,5 1.189,6 1.194,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.242,6 1.191,5 1.055,6 983,3 1.014,2 996,5 962,7 959,5 1.100,7 1.184,5 1.189,6 1.194,4
BE Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.717,5 1.693,3 1.688,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.717,5 1.693,3 1.688,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.717,5 1.693,3 1.688,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.717,5 1.693,3 1.688,1
CZ Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.128,0 1.163,4 1.183,7 1.207,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.128,0 1.163,4 1.183,7 1.207,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.128,0 1.163,4 1.183,7 1.207,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.128,0 1.163,4 1.183,7 1.207,7
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 0,0 13.402,9 13.638,9 13.161,5 13.412,9 14.217,1 14.085,0 14.038,1 14.635,5 15.485,1 16.465,8 16.676,8 16.839,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 13.402,9 13.638,9 13.161,5 13.412,9 14.217,1 14.085,0 14.038,1 14.635,5 15.485,1 16.465,8 16.676,8 16.839,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 13.402,9 13.638,9 13.161,5 13.412,9 14.217,1 14.085,0 14.038,1 14.635,5 15.485,1 16.465,8 16.676,8 16.839,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 13.402,9 13.638,9 13.161,5 13.412,9 14.217,1 14.085,0 14.038,1 14.635,5 15.485,1 16.465,8 16.676,8 16.839,5
DK Baseline 0,0 1.090,8 1.064,4 949,1 951,4 1.069,7 1.017,2 980,9 1.074,5 1.177,8 1.297,8 1.277,8 1.255,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.090,8 1.064,4 949,1 951,4 1.069,7 1.017,2 980,9 1.074,5 1.177,8 1.297,8 1.277,8 1.255,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.090,8 1.064,4 949,1 951,4 1.069,7 1.017,2 980,9 1.074,5 1.177,8 1.297,8 1.277,8 1.255,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.090,8 1.064,4 949,1 951,4 1.069,7 1.017,2 980,9 1.074,5 1.177,8 1.297,8 1.277,8 1.255,4
ES Baseline 0,0 6.001,1 6.005,2 5.411,9 5.330,2 5.762,8 5.820,9 5.709,8 5.759,0 6.867,6 7.658,1 7.669,4 7.690,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 6.001,1 6.005,2 5.411,9 5.330,2 5.762,8 5.820,9 5.709,8 5.759,0 6.867,6 7.658,1 7.669,4 7.690,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.001,1 6.005,2 5.411,9 5.330,2 5.762,8 5.820,9 5.709,8 5.759,0 6.867,6 7.658,1 7.669,4 7.690,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.001,1 6.005,2 5.411,9 5.330,2 5.762,8 5.820,9 5.709,8 5.759,0 6.867,6 7.658,1 7.669,4 7.690,7
FI Baseline 0,0 1.252,4 1.063,7 861,1 809,9 801,0 901,5 869,9 930,0 997,0 1.077,4 1.074,9 1.074,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.252,4 1.063,7 861,1 809,9 801,0 901,5 869,9 930,0 997,0 1.077,4 1.074,9 1.074,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.252,4 1.063,7 861,1 809,9 801,0 901,5 869,9 930,0 997,0 1.077,4 1.074,9 1.074,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.252,4 1.063,7 861,1 809,9 801,0 901,5 869,9 930,0 997,0 1.077,4 1.074,9 1.074,0
FR Baseline 0,0 10.651,6 10.680,2 10.187,4 10.297,8 11.304,8 11.088,7 10.847,0 10.834,2 12.385,6 13.263,2 13.265,4 13.272,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 10.651,6 10.680,2 10.187,4 10.297,8 11.304,8 11.088,7 10.847,0 10.834,2 12.385,6 13.263,2 13.265,4 13.272,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 10.651,6 10.680,2 10.187,4 10.297,8 11.304,8 11.088,7 10.847,0 10.834,2 12.385,6 13.263,2 13.265,4 13.272,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 10.651,6 10.680,2 10.187,4 10.297,8 11.304,8 11.088,7 10.847,0 10.834,2 12.385,6 13.263,2 13.265,4 13.272,5
GR Baseline 0,0 1.326,4 1.424,7 1.423,7 1.558,8 1.993,9 1.964,8 1.945,6 1.991,7 2.498,9 2.831,8 2.793,3 2.759,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.326,4 1.424,7 1.423,7 1.558,8 1.993,9 1.964,8 1.945,6 1.991,7 2.498,9 2.831,8 2.793,3 2.759,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.326,4 1.424,7 1.423,7 1.558,8 1.993,9 1.964,8 1.945,6 1.991,7 2.498,9 2.831,8 2.793,3 2.759,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.326,4 1.424,7 1.423,7 1.558,8 1.993,9 1.964,8 1.945,6 1.991,7 2.498,9 2.831,8 2.793,3 2.759,8
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 769,1 880,3 971,8 985,5 1.002,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 769,1 880,3 971,8 985,5 1.002,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 769,1 880,3 971,8 985,5 1.002,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 769,1 880,3 971,8 985,5 1.002,1
IE Baseline 0,0 694,3 702,1 695,4 709,2 838,9 878,1 801,3 926,4 1.033,3 1.155,3 1.163,1 1.168,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 694,3 702,1 695,4 709,2 838,9 878,1 801,3 926,4 1.033,3 1.155,3 1.163,1 1.168,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 694,3 702,1 695,4 709,2 838,9 878,1 801,3 926,4 1.033,3 1.155,3 1.163,1 1.168,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 694,3 702,1 695,4 709,2 838,9 878,1 801,3 926,4 1.033,3 1.155,3 1.163,1 1.168,0
IT Baseline 0,0 17.796,8 17.596,5 16.289,1 16.298,1 17.916,7 17.381,7 16.763,2 16.724,7 19.203,9 20.621,8 20.618,8 20.550,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 17.796,8 17.596,5 16.289,1 16.298,1 17.916,7 17.381,7 16.763,2 16.724,7 19.203,9 20.621,8 20.618,8 20.550,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 17.796,8 17.596,5 16.289,1 16.298,1 17.916,7 17.381,7 16.763,2 16.724,7 19.203,9 20.621,8 20.618,8 20.550,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 17.796,8 17.596,5 16.289,1 16.298,1 17.916,7 17.381,7 16.763,2 16.724,7 19.203,9 20.621,8 20.618,8 20.550,0
LU Baseline 0,0 68,7 62,8 51,2 46,7 47,2 45,3 43,0 47,1 51,6 57,1 57,2 57,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 68,7 62,8 51,2 46,7 47,2 45,3 43,0 47,1 51,6 57,1 57,2 57,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 68,7 62,8 51,2 46,7 47,2 45,3 43,0 47,1 51,6 57,1 57,2 57,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 68,7 62,8 51,2 46,7 47,2 45,3 43,0 47,1 51,6 57,1 57,2 57,0
NL Baseline 0,0 2.779,7 2.804,2 2.622,6 2.652,6 3.002,8 2.869,9 2.769,7 3.109,0 3.378,6 3.688,8 3.716,9 3.730,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.779,7 2.804,2 2.622,6 2.652,6 3.002,8 2.869,9 2.769,7 3.109,0 3.378,6 3.688,8 3.716,9 3.730,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.779,7 2.804,2 2.622,6 2.652,6 3.002,8 2.869,9 2.769,7 3.109,0 3.378,6 3.688,8 3.716,9 3.730,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.779,7 2.804,2 2.622,6 2.652,6 3.002,8 2.869,9 2.769,7 3.109,0 3.378,6 3.688,8 3.716,9 3.730,4
PL Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.674,4 2.741,9 3.047,2 3.120,1 3.208,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.674,4 2.741,9 3.047,2 3.120,1 3.208,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.674,4 2.741,9 3.047,2 3.120,1 3.208,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.674,4 2.741,9 3.047,2 3.120,1 3.208,6
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 0,0 1.301,0 1.440,2 1.480,8 1.705,7 2.368,9 2.507,3 1.892,6 2.534,3 2.791,5 3.083,9 3.041,3 2.993,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.301,0 1.440,2 1.480,8 1.705,7 2.368,9 2.507,3 1.892,6 2.534,3 2.791,5 3.083,9 3.041,3 2.993,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.301,0 1.440,2 1.480,8 1.705,7 2.368,9 2.507,3 1.892,6 2.534,3 2.791,5 3.083,9 3.041,3 2.993,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.301,0 1.440,2 1.480,8 1.705,7 2.368,9 2.507,3 1.892,6 2.534,3 2.791,5 3.083,9 3.041,3 2.993,3
SE Baseline 0,0 1.475,9 1.425,4 1.314,5 1.291,5 1.354,6 1.355,3 1.313,1 1.382,0 1.474,1 1.583,0 1.579,0 1.576,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.475,9 1.425,4 1.314,5 1.291,5 1.354,6 1.355,3 1.313,1 1.382,0 1.474,1 1.583,0 1.579,0 1.576,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.475,9 1.425,4 1.314,5 1.291,5 1.354,6 1.355,3 1.313,1 1.382,0 1.474,1 1.583,0 1.579,0 1.576,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.475,9 1.425,4 1.314,5 1.291,5 1.354,6 1.355,3 1.313,1 1.382,0 1.474,1 1.583,0 1.579,0 1.576,4
SI Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 233,7 236,9 250,0 269,0 290,2 293,9 296,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 233,7 236,9 250,0 269,0 290,2 293,9 296,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 233,7 236,9 250,0 269,0 290,2 293,9 296,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 233,7 236,9 250,0 269,0 290,2 293,9 296,1
UK Baseline 0,0 11.488,0 11.240,7 10.514,7 10.392,1 11.262,6 11.171,8 10.905,0 11.678,2 12.546,7 13.588,9 13.624,3 13.656,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 11.488,0 11.240,7 10.514,7 10.392,1 11.262,6 11.171,8 10.905,0 11.678,2 12.546,7 13.588,9 13.624,3 13.656,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 11.488,0 11.240,7 10.514,7 10.392,1 11.262,6 11.171,8 10.905,0 11.678,2 12.546,7 13.588,9 13.624,3 13.656,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 11.488,0 11.240,7 10.514,7 10.392,1 11.262,6 11.171,8 10.905,0 11.678,2 12.546,7 13.588,9 13.624,3 13.656,4
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 101.555 101.773 102.016 102.639 103.330 104.110 104.906 105.840 108.178 110.597 113.123 115.703 118.312 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 101.555 101.773 102.016 102.547 103.045 103.600 104.199 104.965 107.125 109.375 111.747 114.185 116.660 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 101.555 101.773 102.016 102.556 103.098 103.744 104.483 105.413 107.730 110.147 112.685 115.281 117.898 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 101.555 101.773 102.016 102.583 103.162 103.830 104.545 105.422 107.695 110.055 112.534 115.071 117.638
EU15 Baseline 89.678 89.893 90.132 90.677 91.291 91.991 92.711 93.553 95.611 97.741 99.966 102.237 104.529 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 89.678 89.893 90.132 90.599 91.048 91.558 92.114 92.818 94.729 96.721 98.820 100.975 103.156 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 89.678 89.893 90.132 90.607 91.096 91.689 92.370 93.222 95.275 97.416 99.663 101.957 104.264 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 89.678 89.893 90.132 90.629 91.150 91.757 92.413 93.212 95.219 97.306 99.494 101.732 103.991
EU10 Baseline 11.877 11.880 11.884 11.962 12.038 12.119 12.195 12.287 12.567 12.855 13.157 13.466 13.784 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.877 11.880 11.884 11.949 11.997 12.042 12.085 12.147 12.395 12.654 12.928 13.210 13.504 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.877 11.880 11.884 11.950 12.002 12.056 12.112 12.191 12.455 12.731 13.023 13.324 13.634 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.877 11.880 11.884 11.953 12.013 12.073 12.133 12.210 12.475 12.750 13.040 13.338 13.647
AT Baseline 1.205,4 1.217,9 1.233,0 1.250,6 1.269,7 1.289,9 1.308,2 1.325,6 1.354,7 1.382,2 1.407,8 1.432,5 1.457,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.205,4 1.217,9 1.233,0 1.249,8 1.265,7 1.282,5 1.297,7 1.312,2 1.338,4 1.363,0 1.386,1 1.408,3 1.431,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.205,4 1.217,9 1.233,0 1.250,1 1.266,8 1.285,3 1.302,5 1.319,2 1.347,6 1.374,5 1.399,8 1.424,4 1.449,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.205,4 1.217,9 1.233,0 1.250,4 1.267,3 1.285,4 1.301,9 1.317,6 1.345,1 1.371,0 1.395,4 1.419,0 1.443,0
BE Baseline 1.691,3 1.702,3 1.716,2 1.733,2 1.751,8 1.770,7 1.788,6 1.807,6 1.843,5 1.881,3 1.918,2 1.956,0 1.994,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.691,3 1.702,3 1.716,2 1.731,8 1.745,5 1.759,4 1.772,6 1.787,4 1.819,2 1.853,1 1.886,8 1.921,7 1.958,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.691,3 1.702,3 1.716,2 1.731,7 1.745,9 1.760,8 1.776,0 1.793,0 1.826,7 1.862,6 1.898,0 1.934,6 1.972,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.691,3 1.702,3 1.716,2 1.732,3 1.747,4 1.763,0 1.778,1 1.794,7 1.828,2 1.863,7 1.898,6 1.934,7 1.972,1
CZ Baseline 1.236,1 1.270,9 1.309,1 1.337,6 1.362,7 1.385,4 1.408,9 1.432,7 1.478,7 1.524,7 1.571,2 1.615,7 1.661,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.236,1 1.270,9 1.309,1 1.336,3 1.359,3 1.378,9 1.399,6 1.420,7 1.463,5 1.506,1 1.548,8 1.589,1 1.630,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.236,1 1.270,9 1.309,1 1.335,8 1.358,3 1.377,3 1.398,0 1.419,3 1.462,0 1.504,4 1.546,7 1.586,3 1.626,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.236,1 1.270,9 1.309,1 1.336,6 1.360,4 1.381,1 1.403,0 1.425,4 1.469,6 1.513,5 1.557,6 1.599,4 1.642,0
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 17.027,8 17.221,7 17.430,3 17.643,4 17.876,5 18.136,6 18.399,4 18.683,9 19.136,5 19.606,6 20.086,3 20.576,0 21.076,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 17.027,8 17.221,7 17.430,3 17.630,2 17.836,7 18.069,4 18.310,4 18.576,5 19.009,7 19.461,7 19.925,8 20.401,6 20.888,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 17.027,8 17.221,7 17.430,3 17.629,0 17.839,0 18.079,8 18.338,3 18.624,5 19.076,3 19.547,0 20.028,7 20.519,9 21.019,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 17.027,8 17.221,7 17.430,3 17.632,4 17.845,7 18.087,3 18.338,1 18.613,1 19.055,0 19.515,2 19.986,4 20.468,0 20.960,4
DK Baseline 1.236,0 1.217,6 1.203,3 1.188,3 1.176,6 1.170,3 1.166,9 1.167,1 1.188,3 1.207,3 1.225,3 1.238,9 1.250,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.236,0 1.217,6 1.203,3 1.185,5 1.168,9 1.156,7 1.148,0 1.143,6 1.160,4 1.175,2 1.189,3 1.199,2 1.206,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.236,0 1.217,6 1.203,3 1.185,5 1.169,0 1.157,5 1.149,8 1.146,8 1.164,8 1.181,0 1.196,4 1.207,6 1.216,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.236,0 1.217,6 1.203,3 1.186,4 1.171,5 1.161,5 1.154,7 1.152,1 1.170,5 1.187,0 1.202,9 1.214,7 1.224,4
ES Baseline 7.730,0 7.770,7 7.805,1 7.891,7 7.978,9 8.070,8 8.170,6 8.277,4 8.530,8 8.791,0 9.065,6 9.346,2 9.624,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.730,0 7.770,7 7.805,1 7.885,6 7.958,7 8.032,8 8.116,7 8.210,2 8.448,6 8.694,3 8.954,7 9.221,2 9.485,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.730,0 7.770,7 7.805,1 7.885,3 7.959,5 8.037,2 8.128,2 8.230,8 8.478,0 8.733,4 9.003,6 9.279,7 9.553,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.730,0 7.770,7 7.805,1 7.888,2 7.967,4 8.050,2 8.143,2 8.245,2 8.492,6 8.747,2 9.016,3 9.291,2 9.564,1
FI Baseline 1.077,1 1.079,9 1.083,3 1.096,0 1.108,4 1.125,2 1.145,5 1.169,9 1.208,6 1.247,8 1.284,7 1.317,8 1.346,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.077,1 1.079,9 1.083,3 1.094,4 1.102,9 1.114,8 1.130,5 1.150,4 1.184,7 1.219,7 1.252,9 1.282,6 1.308,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.077,1 1.079,9 1.083,3 1.094,5 1.103,5 1.116,9 1.134,6 1.156,8 1.193,6 1.231,1 1.267,0 1.299,1 1.327,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.077,1 1.079,9 1.083,3 1.094,8 1.104,4 1.118,0 1.135,3 1.156,8 1.192,7 1.229,2 1.263,8 1.294,9 1.322,2
FR Baseline 13.288,0 13.305,1 13.323,1 13.388,0 13.462,9 13.547,8 13.638,8 13.751,4 14.028,9 14.327,4 14.639,0 14.962,3 15.297,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.288,0 13.305,1 13.323,1 13.378,5 13.431,2 13.492,9 13.565,2 13.663,2 13.923,6 14.205,6 14.501,8 14.810,5 15.130,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.288,0 13.305,1 13.323,1 13.380,7 13.442,2 13.520,7 13.618,0 13.744,0 14.031,0 14.340,1 14.662,6 14.995,2 15.335,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.288,0 13.305,1 13.323,1 13.383,2 13.446,8 13.523,1 13.610,9 13.723,5 13.998,6 14.294,9 14.604,3 14.924,7 15.255,2
GR Baseline 2.723,9 2.689,5 2.656,2 2.666,7 2.668,5 2.671,0 2.674,0 2.683,6 2.751,9 2.823,5 2.901,2 2.980,7 3.058,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.723,9 2.689,5 2.656,2 2.664,8 2.661,4 2.656,3 2.652,1 2.655,0 2.716,4 2.781,4 2.852,7 2.926,2 2.998,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.723,9 2.689,5 2.656,2 2.664,6 2.660,8 2.655,6 2.652,1 2.656,2 2.718,8 2.785,1 2.858,0 2.933,1 3.007,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.723,9 2.689,5 2.656,2 2.665,4 2.663,7 2.661,3 2.660,0 2.665,6 2.730,0 2.798,0 2.872,5 2.949,1 3.024,7
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 1.023,4 1.050,1 1.079,0 1.088,5 1.100,8 1.111,4 1.121,1 1.129,9 1.155,1 1.179,5 1.204,4 1.229,5 1.257,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.023,4 1.050,1 1.079,0 1.087,6 1.098,3 1.106,7 1.114,0 1.120,2 1.142,2 1.162,9 1.183,9 1.204,9 1.228,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.023,4 1.050,1 1.079,0 1.087,2 1.097,6 1.105,3 1.112,2 1.118,1 1.139,6 1.159,6 1.179,8 1.200,1 1.222,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.023,4 1.050,1 1.079,0 1.087,7 1.098,9 1.108,0 1.116,1 1.123,1 1.146,1 1.168,0 1.190,1 1.212,4 1.237,0
IE Baseline 1.172,9 1.178,7 1.183,4 1.202,0 1.220,4 1.240,2 1.261,8 1.285,3 1.328,4 1.375,6 1.423,7 1.474,3 1.526,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.172,9 1.178,7 1.183,4 1.200,6 1.215,3 1.230,2 1.247,3 1.266,8 1.306,0 1.349,4 1.394,4 1.442,4 1.492,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.172,9 1.178,7 1.183,4 1.200,7 1.215,8 1.232,0 1.250,9 1.272,6 1.314,1 1.359,9 1.407,5 1.457,9 1.510,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.172,9 1.178,7 1.183,4 1.201,2 1.217,4 1.234,4 1.253,6 1.275,1 1.316,5 1.362,1 1.409,2 1.459,2 1.511,1
IT Baseline 20.499,5 20.459,2 20.426,6 20.412,7 20.432,5 20.467,8 20.495,3 20.544,4 20.866,5 21.184,9 21.517,2 21.847,4 22.165,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 20.499,5 20.459,2 20.426,6 20.395,2 20.381,7 20.377,2 20.370,6 20.391,6 20.683,0 20.973,1 21.278,5 21.583,2 21.876,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 20.499,5 20.459,2 20.426,6 20.397,0 20.391,2 20.402,5 20.419,4 20.468,4 20.787,2 21.106,5 21.441,0 21.773,8 22.093,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 20.499,5 20.459,2 20.426,6 20.402,9 20.405,4 20.422,8 20.438,4 20.480,5 20.793,2 21.104,0 21.429,2 21.752,3 22.063,4
LU Baseline 56,6 56,1 55,6 55,2 55,0 55,0 55,1 55,3 56,5 57,7 58,9 60,2 61,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 56,6 56,1 55,6 55,1 54,5 54,1 53,8 53,7 54,7 55,7 56,8 58,0 59,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 56,6 56,1 55,6 55,1 54,6 54,2 54,1 54,1 55,2 56,3 57,5 58,7 60,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 56,6 56,1 55,6 55,1 54,8 54,5 54,4 54,5 55,5 56,6 57,9 59,1 60,4
NL Baseline 3.746,3 3.767,6 3.784,1 3.810,7 3.838,9 3.864,5 3.883,2 3.902,7 3.979,9 4.060,6 4.148,8 4.246,5 4.353,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.746,3 3.767,6 3.784,1 3.806,0 3.824,8 3.838,7 3.846,3 3.855,4 3.921,2 3.991,1 4.069,1 4.157,2 4.255,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.746,3 3.767,6 3.784,1 3.806,6 3.827,5 3.845,3 3.858,5 3.874,5 3.947,2 4.024,8 4.111,1 4.207,6 4.314,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.746,3 3.767,6 3.784,1 3.808,0 3.831,2 3.851,1 3.865,0 3.880,5 3.953,2 4.030,1 4.115,0 4.209,9 4.314,8
PL Baseline 3.309,7 3.423,6 3.549,9 3.630,3 3.715,8 3.800,1 3.884,8 3.968,2 4.094,5 4.222,3 4.344,3 4.469,5 4.598,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.309,7 3.423,6 3.549,9 3.628,0 3.709,5 3.788,1 3.867,8 3.946,4 4.066,3 4.186,8 4.300,8 4.417,2 4.536,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.309,7 3.423,6 3.549,9 3.626,4 3.706,1 3.782,6 3.862,1 3.940,5 4.059,2 4.177,9 4.289,3 4.402,6 4.517,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.309,7 3.423,6 3.549,9 3.628,2 3.710,7 3.790,9 3.872,6 3.953,1 4.075,2 4.197,9 4.314,0 4.432,5 4.553,6
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 2.938,4 2.880,3 2.815,6 2.803,1 2.779,6 2.757,9 2.741,0 2.731,2 2.772,5 2.821,8 2.882,3 2.949,7 3.019,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.938,4 2.880,3 2.815,6 2.800,6 2.770,3 2.738,6 2.712,5 2.694,8 2.728,4 2.771,2 2.826,1 2.888,8 2.954,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.938,4 2.880,3 2.815,6 2.800,3 2.769,5 2.737,8 2.712,9 2.697,4 2.733,1 2.778,5 2.836,4 2.901,9 2.970,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.938,4 2.880,3 2.815,6 2.801,7 2.774,4 2.747,3 2.726,1 2.713,0 2.751,1 2.798,2 2.857,2 2.923,5 2.992,4
SE Baseline 1.577,6 1.582,0 1.588,3 1.597,9 1.612,2 1.631,2 1.654,1 1.681,5 1.729,7 1.776,0 1.820,6 1.858,8 1.895,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.577,6 1.582,0 1.588,3 1.595,4 1.605,7 1.620,1 1.638,8 1.662,8 1.707,5 1.750,5 1.792,0 1.827,3 1.860,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.577,6 1.582,0 1.588,3 1.595,7 1.607,2 1.623,9 1.645,6 1.672,8 1.720,6 1.766,8 1.811,6 1.850,0 1.886,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.577,6 1.582,0 1.588,3 1.596,2 1.608,1 1.624,8 1.645,7 1.671,6 1.718,2 1.763,2 1.806,6 1.843,8 1.879,1
SI Baseline 299,0 302,3 306,5 312,4 319,0 325,9 333,3 341,5 354,1 367,7 381,9 396,8 412,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 299,0 302,3 306,5 312,1 317,9 324,0 330,6 338,1 350,0 362,7 376,2 390,2 404,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 299,0 302,3 306,5 312,0 317,9 324,2 331,3 339,3 351,6 364,8 378,7 393,3 408,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 299,0 302,3 306,5 312,2 318,3 324,8 331,9 339,8 352,1 365,3 379,2 393,7 408,8
UK Baseline 13.706,9 13.764,6 13.827,6 13.937,5 14.059,4 14.192,5 14.328,3 14.486,0 14.834,9 15.197,6 15.586,0 15.989,9 16.400,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.706,9 13.764,6 13.827,6 13.925,0 14.024,5 14.134,6 14.251,4 14.394,6 14.727,3 15.075,9 15.452,7 15.846,8 16.248,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.706,9 13.764,6 13.827,6 13.929,9 14.043,7 14.179,3 14.329,6 14.511,0 14.881,0 15.268,5 15.683,4 16.113,6 16.548,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.706,9 13.764,6 13.827,6 13.931,3 14.044,3 14.172,0 14.307,1 14.467,9 14.818,7 15.185,0 15.578,4 15.987,8 16.403,6
Fix tax costs small cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 0 18.227 17.782 17.359 16.957 16.581 16.950 17.227 17.548 17.886 19.032 19.327 19.626 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 18.227 17.782 17.359 16.957 16.581 16.950 17.227 17.548 17.886 19.032 19.327 19.626 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 18.227 17.782 17.359 16.957 16.581 16.950 17.227 17.548 17.886 19.032 19.327 19.626 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 18.227 17.782 17.359 16.957 16.581 16.950 17.227 17.548 17.886 19.032 19.327 19.626
EU15 Baseline 0 15.594 15.177 14.779 14.398 14.038 14.355 14.576 14.830 15.099 15.736 15.973 16.216 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 15.594 15.177 14.779 14.398 14.038 14.355 14.576 14.830 15.099 15.736 15.973 16.216 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 15.594 15.177 14.779 14.398 14.038 14.355 14.576 14.830 15.099 15.736 15.973 16.216 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 15.594 15.177 14.779 14.398 14.038 14.355 14.576 14.830 15.099 15.736 15.973 16.216
EU10 Baseline 0 2.633 2.604 2.580 2.559 2.543 2.596 2.652 2.718 2.787 3.296 3.354 3.411 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 2.633 2.604 2.580 2.559 2.543 2.596 2.652 2.718 2.787 3.296 3.354 3.411 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 2.633 2.604 2.580 2.559 2.543 2.596 2.652 2.718 2.787 3.296 3.354 3.411 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 2.633 2.604 2.580 2.559 2.543 2.596 2.652 2.718 2.787 3.296 3.354 3.411
AT Baseline 0,0 221,9 206,5 191,6 177,1 162,9 166,2 169,4 172,4 175,8 179,3 183,1 187,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 221,9 206,5 191,6 177,1 162,9 166,2 169,4 172,4 175,8 179,3 183,1 187,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 221,9 206,5 191,6 177,1 162,9 166,2 169,4 172,4 175,8 179,3 183,1 187,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 221,9 206,5 191,6 177,1 162,9 166,2 169,4 172,4 175,8 179,3 183,1 187,1
BE Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 358,8 365,9 372,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 358,8 365,9 372,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 358,8 365,9 372,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 358,8 365,9 372,3
CZ Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 204,8 213,5 220,9 228,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 204,8 213,5 220,9 228,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 204,8 213,5 220,9 228,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 204,8 213,5 220,9 228,6
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 0,0 1.554,8 1.545,2 1.536,1 1.527,5 1.519,4 1.537,9 1.557,7 1.591,9 1.628,7 1.666,8 1.715,1 1.765,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.554,8 1.545,2 1.536,1 1.527,5 1.519,4 1.537,9 1.557,7 1.591,9 1.628,7 1.666,8 1.715,1 1.765,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.554,8 1.545,2 1.536,1 1.527,5 1.519,4 1.537,9 1.557,7 1.591,9 1.628,7 1.666,8 1.715,1 1.765,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.554,8 1.545,2 1.536,1 1.527,5 1.519,4 1.537,9 1.557,7 1.591,9 1.628,7 1.666,8 1.715,1 1.765,2
DK Baseline 0,0 1.129,1 1.069,5 1.012,9 959,1 908,1 913,2 918,2 924,8 932,9 941,6 945,0 950,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.129,1 1.069,5 1.012,9 959,1 908,1 913,2 918,2 924,8 932,9 941,6 945,0 950,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.129,1 1.069,5 1.012,9 959,1 908,1 913,2 918,2 924,8 932,9 941,6 945,0 950,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.129,1 1.069,5 1.012,9 959,1 908,1 913,2 918,2 924,8 932,9 941,6 945,0 950,7
ES Baseline 0,0 916,8 877,1 835,4 792,1 750,0 775,0 804,1 835,5 868,4 902,6 921,3 940,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 916,8 877,1 835,4 792,1 750,0 775,0 804,1 835,5 868,4 902,6 921,3 940,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 916,8 877,1 835,4 792,1 750,0 775,0 804,1 835,5 868,4 902,6 921,3 940,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 916,8 877,1 835,4 792,1 750,0 775,0 804,1 835,5 868,4 902,6 921,3 940,0
FI Baseline 0,0 617,6 586,6 554,1 520,7 486,7 610,7 623,1 638,2 654,4 670,9 681,2 691,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 617,6 586,6 554,1 520,7 486,7 610,7 623,1 638,2 654,4 670,9 681,2 691,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 617,6 586,6 554,1 520,7 486,7 610,7 623,1 638,2 654,4 670,9 681,2 691,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 617,6 586,6 554,1 520,7 486,7 610,7 623,1 638,2 654,4 670,9 681,2 691,6
FR Baseline 0,0 1.880,2 1.843,0 1.808,0 1.773,3 1.738,8 1.767,2 1.797,0 1.829,8 1.864,8 1.901,3 1.922,9 1.945,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.880,2 1.843,0 1.808,0 1.773,3 1.738,8 1.767,2 1.797,0 1.829,8 1.864,8 1.901,3 1.922,9 1.945,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.880,2 1.843,0 1.808,0 1.773,3 1.738,8 1.767,2 1.797,0 1.829,8 1.864,8 1.901,3 1.922,9 1.945,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.880,2 1.843,0 1.808,0 1.773,3 1.738,8 1.767,2 1.797,0 1.829,8 1.864,8 1.901,3 1.922,9 1.945,2
GR Baseline 0,0 398,6 416,1 435,4 456,0 478,5 495,9 513,0 530,6 549,3 569,0 569,5 569,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 398,6 416,1 435,4 456,0 478,5 495,9 513,0 530,6 549,3 569,0 569,5 569,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 398,6 416,1 435,4 456,0 478,5 495,9 513,0 530,6 549,3 569,0 569,5 569,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 398,6 416,1 435,4 456,0 478,5 495,9 513,0 530,6 549,3 569,0 569,5 569,0
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 182,6 189,3 194,3 199,1 204,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 182,6 189,3 194,3 199,1 204,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 182,6 189,3 194,3 199,1 204,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 182,6 189,3 194,3 199,1 204,4
IE Baseline 0,0 284,1 290,7 297,5 304,6 311,8 322,6 334,0 346,1 358,8 372,0 379,4 386,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 284,1 290,7 297,5 304,6 311,8 322,6 334,0 346,1 358,8 372,0 379,4 386,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 284,1 290,7 297,5 304,6 311,8 322,6 334,0 346,1 358,8 372,0 379,4 386,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 284,1 290,7 297,5 304,6 311,8 322,6 334,0 346,1 358,8 372,0 379,4 386,8
IT Baseline 0,0 4.256,5 4.098,5 3.946,7 3.801,6 3.662,8 3.674,7 3.691,5 3.707,6 3.724,7 3.742,4 3.785,0 3.829,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 4.256,5 4.098,5 3.946,7 3.801,6 3.662,8 3.674,7 3.691,5 3.707,6 3.724,7 3.742,4 3.785,0 3.829,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 4.256,5 4.098,5 3.946,7 3.801,6 3.662,8 3.674,7 3.691,5 3.707,6 3.724,7 3.742,4 3.785,0 3.829,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 4.256,5 4.098,5 3.946,7 3.801,6 3.662,8 3.674,7 3.691,5 3.707,6 3.724,7 3.742,4 3.785,0 3.829,3
LU Baseline 0,0 4,6 4,0 3,4 2,9 2,5 2,6 2,6 2,6 2,7 2,7 2,8 2,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 4,6 4,0 3,4 2,9 2,5 2,6 2,6 2,6 2,7 2,7 2,8 2,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 4,6 4,0 3,4 2,9 2,5 2,6 2,6 2,6 2,7 2,7 2,8 2,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 4,6 4,0 3,4 2,9 2,5 2,6 2,6 2,6 2,7 2,7 2,8 2,8
NL Baseline 0,0 1.638,4 1.604,1 1.571,2 1.539,8 1.510,0 1.534,5 1.562,3 1.597,2 1.633,1 1.669,8 1.708,5 1.747,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.638,4 1.604,1 1.571,2 1.539,8 1.510,0 1.534,5 1.562,3 1.597,2 1.633,1 1.669,8 1.708,5 1.747,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.638,4 1.604,1 1.571,2 1.539,8 1.510,0 1.534,5 1.562,3 1.597,2 1.633,1 1.669,8 1.708,5 1.747,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.638,4 1.604,1 1.571,2 1.539,8 1.510,0 1.534,5 1.562,3 1.597,2 1.633,1 1.669,8 1.708,5 1.747,6
PL Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 614,0 651,5 685,8 710,0 735,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 614,0 651,5 685,8 710,0 735,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 614,0 651,5 685,8 710,0 735,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 614,0 651,5 685,8 710,0 735,1
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 0,0 335,7 364,7 396,1 430,5 467,9 476,5 485,7 495,4 505,5 515,9 516,3 516,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 335,7 364,7 396,1 430,5 467,9 476,5 485,7 495,4 505,5 515,9 516,3 516,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 335,7 364,7 396,1 430,5 467,9 476,5 485,7 495,4 505,5 515,9 516,3 516,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 335,7 364,7 396,1 430,5 467,9 476,5 485,7 495,4 505,5 515,9 516,3 516,4
SE Baseline 0,0 122,4 115,3 108,7 102,4 96,5 97,8 99,2 101,0 103,0 104,9 106,3 107,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 122,4 115,3 108,7 102,4 96,5 97,8 99,2 101,0 103,0 104,9 106,3 107,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 122,4 115,3 108,7 102,4 96,5 97,8 99,2 101,0 103,0 104,9 106,3 107,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 122,4 115,3 108,7 102,4 96,5 97,8 99,2 101,0 103,0 104,9 106,3 107,8
SI Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 39,0 39,6 40,2 40,7 41,3 42,2 43,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 39,0 39,6 40,2 40,7 41,3 42,2 43,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 39,0 39,6 40,2 40,7 41,3 42,2 43,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 39,0 39,6 40,2 40,7 41,3 42,2 43,1
UK Baseline 0,0 2.233,0 2.156,1 2.082,0 2.010,6 1.941,8 1.979,6 2.017,8 2.056,9 2.097,2 2.138,5 2.170,7 2.203,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.233,0 2.156,1 2.082,0 2.010,6 1.941,8 1.979,6 2.017,8 2.056,9 2.097,2 2.138,5 2.170,7 2.203,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.233,0 2.156,1 2.082,0 2.010,6 1.941,8 1.979,6 2.017,8 2.056,9 2.097,2 2.138,5 2.170,7 2.203,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.233,0 2.156,1 2.082,0 2.010,6 1.941,8 1.979,6 2.017,8 2.056,9 2.097,2 2.138,5 2.170,7 2.203,6
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 19.939 20.264 20.603 20.961 21.325 21.692 22.062 22.434 22.809 23.186 23.567 23.952 24.345 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 19.939 20.264 20.603 20.972 21.353 21.748 22.142 22.536 22.932 23.331 23.732 24.139 24.551 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 19.939 20.264 20.603 20.974 21.358 21.750 22.138 22.522 22.909 23.295 23.683 24.076 24.474 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 19.939 20.264 20.603 20.968 21.340 21.719 22.097 22.475 22.854 23.235 23.619 24.008 24.402
EU15 Baseline 16.469 16.734 17.012 17.302 17.598 17.896 18.196 18.498 18.802 19.108 19.418 19.732 20.053 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16.469 16.734 17.012 17.312 17.624 17.947 18.268 18.589 18.911 19.234 19.560 19.891 20.228 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16.469 16.734 17.012 17.315 17.630 17.954 18.273 18.588 18.906 19.223 19.543 19.867 20.196 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16.469 16.734 17.012 17.309 17.613 17.923 18.232 18.540 18.849 19.159 19.472 19.790 20.113
EU10 Baseline 3.469 3.530 3.591 3.658 3.727 3.796 3.866 3.936 4.007 4.078 4.149 4.220 4.292 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.469 3.530 3.591 3.660 3.730 3.801 3.874 3.947 4.022 4.097 4.172 4.247 4.323 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.469 3.530 3.591 3.659 3.728 3.796 3.865 3.934 4.003 4.072 4.140 4.209 4.278 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.469 3.530 3.591 3.659 3.727 3.796 3.865 3.935 4.006 4.076 4.147 4.218 4.290
AT Baseline 191,2 195,4 199,6 203,3 207,0 210,5 214,0 217,5 221,0 224,6 228,2 232,0 235,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 191,2 195,4 199,6 203,6 207,3 211,1 214,7 218,3 222,0 225,8 229,7 233,7 237,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 191,2 195,4 199,6 203,6 207,3 211,0 214,5 218,1 221,6 225,2 228,8 232,6 236,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 191,2 195,4 199,6 203,5 207,2 210,7 214,2 217,7 221,2 224,7 228,4 232,1 236,0
BE Baseline 379,0 385,7 392,6 398,1 403,7 409,3 415,1 420,9 426,9 432,9 439,1 445,5 451,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 379,0 385,7 392,6 398,2 403,5 409,0 414,7 420,4 426,4 432,6 439,0 445,5 452,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 379,0 385,7 392,6 398,3 403,6 409,0 414,5 420,1 425,9 431,8 437,9 444,0 450,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 379,0 385,7 392,6 398,2 403,4 408,7 414,1 419,6 425,3 431,2 437,2 443,3 449,6
CZ Baseline 236,8 245,5 254,7 261,1 267,5 274,1 280,8 287,7 294,7 302,0 309,4 317,2 325,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 236,8 245,5 254,7 261,2 267,9 274,7 281,7 288,9 296,3 303,8 311,6 319,7 328,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 236,8 245,5 254,7 261,2 267,8 274,6 281,5 288,5 295,7 303,2 310,8 318,7 326,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 236,8 245,5 254,7 261,2 267,7 274,4 281,2 288,2 295,3 302,7 310,2 318,0 326,1
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 1.815,8 1.867,0 1.918,5 1.966,5 2.014,3 2.062,0 2.109,7 2.157,2 2.204,6 2.252,0 2.299,3 2.346,7 2.394,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.815,8 1.867,0 1.918,5 1.966,7 2.015,2 2.064,5 2.113,5 2.162,2 2.211,0 2.259,7 2.308,6 2.357,5 2.406,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.815,8 1.867,0 1.918,5 1.967,0 2.015,3 2.063,8 2.111,2 2.158,2 2.205,3 2.252,2 2.299,3 2.346,5 2.394,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.815,8 1.867,0 1.918,5 1.966,4 2.014,0 2.061,6 2.108,8 2.155,7 2.202,7 2.249,6 2.296,7 2.343,9 2.391,4
DK Baseline 959,5 971,9 988,8 999,4 1.009,6 1.019,5 1.028,8 1.037,6 1.046,1 1.054,9 1.064,2 1.074,1 1.084,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 959,5 971,9 988,8 999,5 1.010,3 1.020,6 1.029,9 1.038,3 1.046,4 1.055,0 1.064,5 1.074,9 1.086,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 959,5 971,9 988,8 999,8 1.010,9 1.021,9 1.031,7 1.040,6 1.049,4 1.058,5 1.068,4 1.079,2 1.090,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 959,5 971,9 988,8 999,4 1.009,8 1.019,9 1.029,1 1.037,6 1.045,9 1.054,5 1.063,7 1.073,8 1.084,3
ES Baseline 959,4 979,6 1.000,6 1.025,5 1.051,0 1.077,0 1.103,4 1.130,2 1.157,5 1.185,3 1.213,6 1.242,5 1.272,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 959,4 979,6 1.000,6 1.026,1 1.052,6 1.080,1 1.107,8 1.135,7 1.164,1 1.193,0 1.222,4 1.252,3 1.282,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 959,4 979,6 1.000,6 1.026,1 1.052,5 1.079,4 1.106,4 1.133,6 1.161,3 1.189,5 1.218,1 1.247,3 1.277,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 959,4 979,6 1.000,6 1.025,8 1.051,7 1.078,1 1.104,8 1.131,8 1.159,2 1.187,1 1.215,4 1.244,3 1.273,8
FI Baseline 703,6 717,4 733,4 755,2 777,7 799,7 820,4 839,6 857,4 874,3 891,0 908,3 926,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 703,6 717,4 733,4 757,2 782,1 806,1 828,0 847,6 865,2 881,7 898,1 915,6 934,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 703,6 717,4 733,4 756,8 780,9 803,4 824,0 842,8 860,1 876,5 892,8 910,1 928,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 703,6 717,4 733,4 756,8 781,0 804,1 825,3 844,6 862,2 878,7 895,1 912,4 931,0
FR Baseline 1.968,7 1.993,2 2.018,9 2.051,6 2.085,6 2.120,9 2.157,4 2.195,1 2.234,0 2.274,2 2.315,7 2.358,4 2.402,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.968,7 1.993,2 2.018,9 2.052,4 2.088,8 2.129,1 2.170,1 2.211,8 2.254,5 2.298,1 2.342,5 2.387,6 2.433,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.968,7 1.993,2 2.018,9 2.055,2 2.097,2 2.145,6 2.193,9 2.242,5 2.292,0 2.342,2 2.392,8 2.444,0 2.495,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.968,7 1.993,2 2.018,9 2.053,1 2.090,4 2.131,2 2.172,6 2.214,6 2.257,5 2.301,3 2.345,7 2.391,0 2.436,9
GR Baseline 569,3 570,6 572,7 582,8 594,0 605,6 617,4 629,6 642,1 654,9 668,0 681,4 695,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 569,3 570,6 572,7 582,9 594,5 606,6 619,1 631,8 644,8 658,1 671,6 685,4 699,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 569,3 570,6 572,7 583,0 594,7 607,0 619,6 632,4 645,4 658,7 672,3 686,1 700,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 569,3 570,6 572,7 582,9 594,3 606,2 618,4 630,9 643,6 656,7 669,9 683,5 697,2
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 210,2 216,6 223,5 227,8 232,2 236,7 241,4 246,2 251,3 256,6 262,2 268,3 274,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 210,2 216,6 223,5 227,9 232,4 237,2 242,1 247,2 252,6 258,3 264,3 270,6 277,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 210,2 216,6 223,5 227,9 232,5 237,2 242,1 247,1 252,5 258,1 264,0 270,2 276,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 210,2 216,6 223,5 227,9 232,3 236,9 241,7 246,6 251,8 257,3 263,0 269,1 275,5
IE Baseline 394,4 402,3 410,3 422,5 435,0 447,9 461,2 474,9 489,0 503,5 518,3 533,6 549,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 394,4 402,3 410,3 423,3 436,8 450,8 465,1 479,8 494,7 510,1 525,7 541,7 558,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 394,4 402,3 410,3 423,1 436,2 449,4 462,8 476,5 490,5 504,9 519,5 534,5 549,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 394,4 402,3 410,3 423,1 436,2 449,6 463,4 477,4 491,8 506,5 521,5 536,9 552,7
IT Baseline 3.874,6 3.920,8 3.967,8 4.002,8 4.037,9 4.073,3 4.109,1 4.145,3 4.181,9 4.218,9 4.256,4 4.294,6 4.333,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.874,6 3.920,8 3.967,8 4.004,7 4.043,2 4.084,5 4.125,4 4.165,9 4.206,7 4.247,6 4.288,7 4.330,2 4.372,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.874,6 3.920,8 3.967,8 4.006,4 4.047,7 4.092,8 4.136,7 4.179,8 4.223,2 4.266,5 4.309,9 4.353,7 4.397,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.874,6 3.920,8 3.967,8 4.004,3 4.041,9 4.081,4 4.120,6 4.159,3 4.198,4 4.237,5 4.276,8 4.316,6 4.356,8
LU Baseline 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,0 3,0 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,2 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,0 3,0 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,3 3,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,0 3,0 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,3 3,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,0 3,0 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,2 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,3
NL Baseline 1.786,9 1.826,3 1.865,4 1.902,8 1.939,9 1.977,1 2.014,7 2.052,4 2.089,9 2.127,2 2.164,0 2.200,8 2.237,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.786,9 1.826,3 1.865,4 1.903,6 1.941,6 1.980,3 2.019,6 2.059,3 2.099,4 2.139,3 2.178,9 2.218,2 2.257,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.786,9 1.826,3 1.865,4 1.903,2 1.940,1 1.976,4 2.012,8 2.048,9 2.084,9 2.120,2 2.154,8 2.189,3 2.224,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.786,9 1.826,3 1.865,4 1.903,1 1.940,0 1.976,9 2.014,2 2.051,5 2.088,9 2.126,0 2.162,6 2.199,1 2.235,9
PL Baseline 761,4 789,0 818,1 841,5 865,5 890,0 915,2 941,1 967,9 995,8 1.025,0 1.055,4 1.087,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 761,4 789,0 818,1 841,8 866,2 891,2 916,9 943,3 970,7 999,2 1.028,9 1.059,8 1.092,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 761,4 789,0 818,1 841,5 865,2 889,1 913,5 938,5 964,4 991,1 1.018,6 1.046,9 1.076,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 761,4 789,0 818,1 841,5 865,3 889,6 914,4 939,8 966,2 993,6 1.021,9 1.051,3 1.081,8
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 516,9 517,8 519,1 528,7 539,3 550,3 561,7 573,4 585,2 596,8 608,2 619,1 629,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 516,9 517,8 519,1 529,0 540,3 552,3 564,8 577,4 590,0 602,4 614,3 625,8 636,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 516,9 517,8 519,1 529,0 540,3 552,1 564,2 576,4 588,5 600,4 611,9 622,9 633,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 516,9 517,8 519,1 528,9 539,8 551,3 563,2 575,2 587,2 599,0 610,4 621,4 632,1
SE Baseline 109,6 111,6 113,9 116,2 118,4 120,6 122,7 124,7 126,7 128,7 130,8 132,8 134,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 109,6 111,6 113,9 116,3 118,6 120,9 123,1 125,2 127,2 129,2 131,3 133,5 135,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 109,6 111,6 113,9 116,2 118,4 120,4 122,4 124,3 126,2 128,1 130,0 132,0 133,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 109,6 111,6 113,9 116,2 118,5 120,6 122,7 124,7 126,7 128,7 130,7 132,8 134,8
SI Baseline 44,1 45,2 46,3 47,7 49,0 50,4 51,9 53,4 54,9 56,5 58,1 59,8 61,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 44,1 45,2 46,3 47,7 49,0 50,4 51,9 53,3 54,9 56,4 58,1 59,8 61,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 44,1 45,2 46,3 47,6 48,9 50,2 51,6 52,9 54,3 55,8 57,3 58,9 60,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 44,1 45,2 46,3 47,6 49,0 50,3 51,7 53,1 54,6 56,1 57,7 59,3 61,0
UK Baseline 2.237,4 2.271,9 2.307,2 2.344,0 2.381,3 2.419,2 2.457,7 2.496,8 2.536,4 2.576,8 2.617,7 2.659,4 2.701,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.237,4 2.271,9 2.307,2 2.345,9 2.386,0 2.427,5 2.469,5 2.511,8 2.554,8 2.598,1 2.642,0 2.686,3 2.731,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.237,4 2.271,9 2.307,2 2.344,7 2.382,1 2.418,4 2.454,9 2.491,2 2.528,2 2.565,4 2.603,2 2.641,6 2.680,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.237,4 2.271,9 2.307,2 2.344,6 2.382,1 2.419,8 2.457,8 2.496,2 2.535,1 2.574,5 2.614,5 2.655,2 2.696,5
variable tax costs small cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 0 49.082 47.760 46.860 45.941 43.596 43.024 43.938 43.640 43.663 44.777 44.450 44.079 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 49.082 47.760 46.860 45.941 43.596 43.024 43.938 43.640 43.663 44.777 44.450 44.079 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 49.082 47.760 46.860 45.941 43.596 43.024 43.938 43.640 43.663 44.777 44.450 44.079 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 49.082 47.760 46.860 45.941 43.596 43.024 43.938 43.640 43.663 44.777 44.450 44.079
EU15 Baseline 0 44.362 43.071 42.223 41.462 39.258 38.735 39.632 39.328 39.327 39.785 39.502 39.172 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 44.362 43.071 42.223 41.462 39.258 38.735 39.632 39.328 39.327 39.785 39.502 39.172 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 44.362 43.071 42.223 41.462 39.258 38.735 39.632 39.328 39.327 39.785 39.502 39.172 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 44.362 43.071 42.223 41.462 39.258 38.735 39.632 39.328 39.327 39.785 39.502 39.172
EU10 Baseline 0 4.720 4.689 4.637 4.478 4.338 4.290 4.306 4.312 4.336 4.992 4.948 4.907 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 4.720 4.689 4.637 4.478 4.338 4.290 4.306 4.312 4.336 4.992 4.948 4.907 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 4.720 4.689 4.637 4.478 4.338 4.290 4.306 4.312 4.336 4.992 4.948 4.907 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 4.720 4.689 4.637 4.478 4.338 4.290 4.306 4.312 4.336 4.992 4.948 4.907
AT Baseline 0,0 664,6 594,6 533,3 479,6 426,3 422,4 414,9 409,0 404,6 399,9 394,6 388,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 664,6 594,6 533,3 479,6 426,3 422,4 414,9 409,0 404,6 399,9 394,6 388,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 664,6 594,6 533,3 479,6 426,3 422,4 414,9 409,0 404,6 399,9 394,6 388,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 664,6 594,6 533,3 479,6 426,3 422,4 414,9 409,0 404,6 399,9 394,6 388,2
BE Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 526,9 515,1 507,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 526,9 515,1 507,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 526,9 515,1 507,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 526,9 515,1 507,7
CZ Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 352,6 334,6 338,4 342,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 352,6 334,6 338,4 342,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 352,6 334,6 338,4 342,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 352,6 334,6 338,4 342,8
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 0,0 5.844,5 5.685,3 5.583,4 5.731,3 5.992,4 6.231,7 6.479,9 6.465,4 6.433,3 6.389,5 6.363,1 6.318,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 5.844,5 5.685,3 5.583,4 5.731,3 5.992,4 6.231,7 6.479,9 6.465,4 6.433,3 6.389,5 6.363,1 6.318,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 5.844,5 5.685,3 5.583,4 5.731,3 5.992,4 6.231,7 6.479,9 6.465,4 6.433,3 6.389,5 6.363,1 6.318,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 5.844,5 5.685,3 5.583,4 5.731,3 5.992,4 6.231,7 6.479,9 6.465,4 6.433,3 6.389,5 6.363,1 6.318,9
DK Baseline 0,0 940,5 887,6 843,3 879,4 830,8 835,3 843,5 841,3 833,9 824,9 808,2 792,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 940,5 887,6 843,3 879,4 830,8 835,3 843,5 841,3 833,9 824,9 808,2 792,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 940,5 887,6 843,3 879,4 830,8 835,3 843,5 841,3 833,9 824,9 808,2 792,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 940,5 887,6 843,3 879,4 830,8 835,3 843,5 841,3 833,9 824,9 808,2 792,3
ES Baseline 0,0 3.558,5 3.290,7 3.113,9 2.931,2 2.673,5 2.679,6 2.831,0 2.812,3 2.871,2 2.928,9 2.924,8 2.921,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 3.558,5 3.290,7 3.113,9 2.931,2 2.673,5 2.679,6 2.831,0 2.812,3 2.871,2 2.928,9 2.924,8 2.921,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.558,5 3.290,7 3.113,9 2.931,2 2.673,5 2.679,6 2.831,0 2.812,3 2.871,2 2.928,9 2.924,8 2.921,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.558,5 3.290,7 3.113,9 2.931,2 2.673,5 2.679,6 2.831,0 2.812,3 2.871,2 2.928,9 2.924,8 2.921,0
FI Baseline 0,0 1.620,0 1.197,4 940,1 695,7 505,9 498,7 490,9 491,6 489,6 486,8 478,6 471,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.620,0 1.197,4 940,1 695,7 505,9 498,7 490,9 491,6 489,6 486,8 478,6 471,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.620,0 1.197,4 940,1 695,7 505,9 498,7 490,9 491,6 489,6 486,8 478,6 471,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.620,0 1.197,4 940,1 695,7 505,9 498,7 490,9 491,6 489,6 486,8 478,6 471,0
FR Baseline 0,0 6.304,6 6.165,8 6.094,7 5.928,4 5.596,2 5.474,4 5.500,1 5.472,5 5.480,4 5.477,0 5.412,6 5.346,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 6.304,6 6.165,8 6.094,7 5.928,4 5.596,2 5.474,4 5.500,1 5.472,5 5.480,4 5.477,0 5.412,6 5.346,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.304,6 6.165,8 6.094,7 5.928,4 5.596,2 5.474,4 5.500,1 5.472,5 5.480,4 5.477,0 5.412,6 5.346,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.304,6 6.165,8 6.094,7 5.928,4 5.596,2 5.474,4 5.500,1 5.472,5 5.480,4 5.477,0 5.412,6 5.346,2
GR Baseline 0,0 898,6 879,2 866,9 841,1 828,9 838,9 830,6 824,1 842,9 860,7 847,7 839,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 898,6 879,2 866,9 841,1 828,9 838,9 830,6 824,1 842,9 860,7 847,7 839,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 898,6 879,2 866,9 841,1 828,9 838,9 830,6 824,1 842,9 860,7 847,7 839,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 898,6 879,2 866,9 841,1 828,9 838,9 830,6 824,1 842,9 860,7 847,7 839,2
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 361,6 332,9 330,1 329,9 331,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 361,6 332,9 330,1 329,9 331,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 361,6 332,9 330,1 329,9 331,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 361,6 332,9 330,1 329,9 331,2
IE Baseline 0,0 366,9 399,6 400,9 398,0 380,4 352,7 398,2 407,5 413,7 419,2 417,0 415,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 366,9 399,6 400,9 398,0 380,4 352,7 398,2 407,5 413,7 419,2 417,0 415,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 366,9 399,6 400,9 398,0 380,4 352,7 398,2 407,5 413,7 419,2 417,0 415,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 366,9 399,6 400,9 398,0 380,4 352,7 398,2 407,5 413,7 419,2 417,0 415,2
IT Baseline 0,0 12.423,5 11.727,6 11.046,9 10.691,3 9.646,1 9.482,2 9.534,9 9.216,6 9.137,5 9.040,4 8.989,6 8.909,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 12.423,5 11.727,6 11.046,9 10.691,3 9.646,1 9.482,2 9.534,9 9.216,6 9.137,5 9.040,4 8.989,6 8.909,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 12.423,5 11.727,6 11.046,9 10.691,3 9.646,1 9.482,2 9.534,9 9.216,6 9.137,5 9.040,4 8.989,6 8.909,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 12.423,5 11.727,6 11.046,9 10.691,3 9.646,1 9.482,2 9.534,9 9.216,6 9.137,5 9.040,4 8.989,6 8.909,7
LU Baseline 0,0 44,8 37,9 32,3 29,1 24,3 23,9 23,5 23,3 23,0 22,8 22,4 22,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 44,8 37,9 32,3 29,1 24,3 23,9 23,5 23,3 23,0 22,8 22,4 22,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 44,8 37,9 32,3 29,1 24,3 23,9 23,5 23,3 23,0 22,8 22,4 22,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 44,8 37,9 32,3 29,1 24,3 23,9 23,5 23,3 23,0 22,8 22,4 22,0
NL Baseline 0,0 2.130,4 2.163,1 2.172,1 2.124,0 2.067,8 2.024,1 2.037,0 2.045,1 2.044,7 2.038,4 2.033,2 2.022,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.130,4 2.163,1 2.172,1 2.124,0 2.067,8 2.024,1 2.037,0 2.045,1 2.044,7 2.038,4 2.033,2 2.022,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.130,4 2.163,1 2.172,1 2.124,0 2.067,8 2.024,1 2.037,0 2.045,1 2.044,7 2.038,4 2.033,2 2.022,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.130,4 2.163,1 2.172,1 2.124,0 2.067,8 2.024,1 2.037,0 2.045,1 2.044,7 2.038,4 2.033,2 2.022,4
PL Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 923,4 866,6 880,6 884,6 891,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 923,4 866,6 880,6 884,6 891,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 923,4 866,6 880,6 884,6 891,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 923,4 866,6 880,6 884,6 891,2
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 0,0 1.059,4 1.137,4 1.266,0 1.216,6 911,5 846,5 1.346,8 1.359,5 1.368,6 1.379,5 1.360,6 1.343,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.059,4 1.137,4 1.266,0 1.216,6 911,5 846,5 1.346,8 1.359,5 1.368,6 1.379,5 1.360,6 1.343,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.059,4 1.137,4 1.266,0 1.216,6 911,5 846,5 1.346,8 1.359,5 1.368,6 1.379,5 1.360,6 1.343,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.059,4 1.137,4 1.266,0 1.216,6 911,5 846,5 1.346,8 1.359,5 1.368,6 1.379,5 1.360,6 1.343,9
SE Baseline 0,0 841,2 802,8 763,3 707,2 660,4 654,5 663,3 666,7 667,7 667,5 661,1 654,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 841,2 802,8 763,3 707,2 660,4 654,5 663,3 666,7 667,7 667,5 661,1 654,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 841,2 802,8 763,3 707,2 660,4 654,5 663,3 666,7 667,7 667,5 661,1 654,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 841,2 802,8 763,3 707,2 660,4 654,5 663,3 666,7 667,7 667,5 661,1 654,8
SI Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 49,1 49,4 49,8 50,1 50,2 50,5 50,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 49,1 49,4 49,8 50,1 50,2 50,5 50,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 49,1 49,4 49,8 50,1 50,2 50,5 50,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 49,1 49,4 49,8 50,1 50,2 50,5 50,7
UK Baseline 0,0 7.665,0 8.102,5 8.565,9 8.809,5 8.713,3 8.369,6 8.237,3 8.293,2 8.316,4 8.322,7 8.273,1 8.219,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 7.665,0 8.102,5 8.565,9 8.809,5 8.713,3 8.369,6 8.237,3 8.293,2 8.316,4 8.322,7 8.273,1 8.219,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 7.665,0 8.102,5 8.565,9 8.809,5 8.713,3 8.369,6 8.237,3 8.293,2 8.316,4 8.322,7 8.273,1 8.219,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 7.665,0 8.102,5 8.565,9 8.809,5 8.713,3 8.369,6 8.237,3 8.293,2 8.316,4 8.322,7 8.273,1 8.219,5
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 43.650 43.169 42.640 42.257 41.932 41.685 41.501 41.387 41.418 41.510 41.654 41.845 42.075 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 43.650 43.169 42.640 42.169 41.587 40.926 40.350 39.873 39.580 39.383 39.275 39.252 39.306 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 43.650 43.169 42.640 42.076 41.308 40.368 39.527 38.788 38.238 37.788 37.433 37.170 36.993 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 43.650 43.169 42.640 42.186 41.653 41.073 40.578 40.174 39.946 39.808 39.753 39.779 39.879
EU15 Baseline 38.788 38.355 37.880 37.528 37.236 37.014 36.852 36.754 36.784 36.868 36.999 37.173 37.382 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 38.788 38.355 37.880 37.447 36.924 36.329 35.814 35.390 35.129 34.954 34.860 34.841 34.891 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 38.788 38.355 37.880 37.363 36.671 35.823 35.069 34.409 33.918 33.517 33.203 32.971 32.816 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 38.788 38.355 37.880 37.463 36.983 36.459 36.014 35.655 35.451 35.327 35.279 35.302 35.391
EU10 Baseline 4.862 4.814 4.761 4.729 4.695 4.670 4.649 4.633 4.634 4.642 4.655 4.672 4.693 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.862 4.814 4.761 4.721 4.663 4.597 4.536 4.483 4.450 4.429 4.415 4.411 4.415 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.862 4.814 4.761 4.713 4.637 4.545 4.458 4.379 4.320 4.271 4.231 4.199 4.177 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.862 4.814 4.761 4.723 4.671 4.614 4.563 4.519 4.495 4.481 4.475 4.477 4.487
AT Baseline 381,4 374,6 368,1 362,7 359,1 356,8 355,3 354,4 354,6 355,0 355,3 355,6 356,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 381,4 374,6 368,1 363,6 359,1 355,0 351,9 349,6 348,7 348,0 347,5 347,1 347,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 381,4 374,6 368,1 362,9 357,1 351,1 346,3 342,3 339,5 336,8 334,1 331,4 329,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 381,4 374,6 368,1 363,8 359,8 356,2 353,8 352,1 351,7 351,5 351,5 351,7 352,2
BE Baseline 501,1 494,7 488,0 482,5 474,0 469,6 466,2 463,6 462,9 464,3 464,8 465,7 467,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 501,1 494,7 488,0 481,3 469,0 458,8 449,7 441,9 436,3 433,6 430,6 428,9 428,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 501,1 494,7 488,0 479,9 464,9 450,8 438,0 426,4 417,1 410,6 404,0 398,8 394,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 501,1 494,7 488,0 481,5 469,8 460,6 452,6 445,7 441,0 439,1 436,7 435,4 435,3
CZ Baseline 347,4 352,2 356,9 358,2 361,1 364,4 368,0 372,2 378,1 384,3 390,7 397,3 404,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 347,4 352,2 356,9 357,0 357,9 357,9 358,2 359,0 361,3 363,8 366,3 368,5 370,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 347,4 352,2 356,9 356,2 355,8 353,8 352,2 351,0 351,2 351,5 351,5 350,8 350,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 347,4 352,2 356,9 357,1 358,2 358,8 359,6 360,8 363,7 366,7 369,7 372,5 375,3
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 6.265,4 6.203,4 6.134,8 6.074,4 6.026,8 5.990,1 5.961,9 5.943,2 5.942,5 5.949,3 5.963,0 5.983,0 6.008,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.265,4 6.203,4 6.134,8 6.061,5 5.975,5 5.876,4 5.790,7 5.719,7 5.673,0 5.639,6 5.618,7 5.609,7 5.611,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.265,4 6.203,4 6.134,8 6.044,2 5.925,2 5.777,5 5.647,0 5.531,6 5.441,3 5.364,9 5.302,0 5.252,4 5.215,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.265,4 6.203,4 6.134,8 6.062,6 5.981,4 5.891,3 5.814,5 5.751,3 5.711,2 5.683,5 5.667,7 5.663,2 5.669,4
DK Baseline 775,1 756,9 738,7 718,9 701,3 687,1 676,4 668,8 664,2 659,8 654,9 649,2 643,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 775,1 756,9 738,7 720,8 702,3 685,2 672,2 663,0 657,1 651,8 646,1 640,0 633,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 775,1 756,9 738,7 719,5 698,8 678,9 663,7 652,7 645,4 638,6 631,0 622,6 613,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 775,1 756,9 738,7 721,4 704,1 688,7 677,2 669,1 664,3 660,0 655,4 650,4 645,5
ES Baseline 2.912,1 2.898,8 2.880,8 2.882,6 2.887,2 2.895,5 2.907,1 2.921,7 2.947,6 2.975,8 3.006,6 3.039,3 3.073,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.912,1 2.898,8 2.880,8 2.875,5 2.862,8 2.844,5 2.830,5 2.821,2 2.825,3 2.833,4 2.845,7 2.861,4 2.879,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.912,1 2.898,8 2.880,8 2.870,3 2.846,9 2.812,5 2.783,4 2.759,3 2.749,2 2.743,1 2.741,4 2.743,2 2.747,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.912,1 2.898,8 2.880,8 2.876,5 2.866,8 2.853,4 2.844,4 2.839,6 2.847,8 2.859,5 2.875,3 2.894,3 2.916,0
FI Baseline 462,7 453,2 442,4 434,6 426,4 420,1 416,1 414,6 415,9 418,6 421,6 424,1 425,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 462,7 453,2 442,4 436,2 427,6 419,2 413,7 411,0 411,4 413,3 415,7 417,7 419,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 462,7 453,2 442,4 435,1 424,3 412,9 405,1 400,7 399,8 400,6 402,0 402,6 402,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 462,7 453,2 442,4 436,4 428,5 421,1 416,5 414,6 415,6 418,1 421,0 423,6 425,5
FR Baseline 5.271,6 5.189,8 5.102,0 5.044,6 4.995,4 4.955,9 4.924,9 4.902,9 4.898,1 4.900,9 4.910,0 4.925,0 4.944,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.271,6 5.189,8 5.102,0 5.027,6 4.936,8 4.833,2 4.741,1 4.662,2 4.606,1 4.562,9 4.531,9 4.512,8 4.504,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.271,6 5.189,8 5.102,0 5.014,1 4.895,9 4.751,3 4.620,8 4.504,1 4.411,5 4.332,7 4.267,7 4.216,4 4.178,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.271,6 5.189,8 5.102,0 5.029,4 4.944,4 4.850,7 4.768,3 4.698,1 4.649,6 4.613,0 4.587,8 4.573,8 4.570,4
GR Baseline 830,0 819,9 808,6 810,6 809,5 808,5 807,6 807,1 810,3 813,6 817,2 820,8 824,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 830,0 819,9 808,6 810,4 807,2 802,4 797,8 794,2 794,7 795,9 797,7 800,0 802,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 830,0 819,9 808,6 809,9 804,8 797,1 789,8 783,5 781,3 779,8 779,0 778,6 778,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 830,0 819,9 808,6 810,6 808,1 804,4 801,1 798,7 800,3 802,4 805,3 808,5 812,0
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 333,8 337,6 341,9 342,3 343,9 345,4 346,7 347,9 350,0 351,8 353,7 355,7 357,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 333,8 337,6 341,9 341,5 341,5 340,4 338,9 336,9 335,4 333,4 331,3 329,5 327,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 333,8 337,6 341,9 340,9 340,0 337,3 334,1 330,2 326,6 322,1 317,2 312,4 307,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 333,8 337,6 341,9 341,5 341,8 341,1 340,0 338,5 337,6 336,2 334,6 333,3 332,1
IE Baseline 412,4 408,7 404,2 404,1 403,8 404,1 405,1 406,7 410,2 414,4 419,3 424,9 431,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 412,4 408,7 404,2 405,1 404,2 402,3 401,5 401,7 404,2 407,8 412,2 417,7 423,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 412,4 408,7 404,2 404,3 401,6 397,0 393,4 391,1 391,0 392,0 394,0 397,1 401,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 412,4 408,7 404,2 405,3 405,1 404,3 404,5 405,7 409,1 413,5 418,7 424,9 431,8
IT Baseline 8.814,1 8.705,3 8.584,8 8.456,7 8.347,2 8.249,8 8.163,3 8.087,9 8.038,3 7.997,2 7.964,7 7.939,0 7.918,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.814,1 8.705,3 8.584,8 8.431,7 8.270,4 8.095,7 7.935,5 7.791,7 7.680,1 7.582,3 7.498,3 7.426,5 7.365,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.814,1 8.705,3 8.584,8 8.415,8 8.225,1 8.006,8 7.806,5 7.623,7 7.474,8 7.340,8 7.221,7 7.116,0 7.022,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.814,1 8.705,3 8.584,8 8.435,0 8.282,2 8.121,4 7.975,0 7.843,5 7.742,8 7.654,7 7.579,4 7.515,6 7.461,7
LU Baseline 21,6 21,1 20,6 20,2 19,9 19,8 19,7 19,7 19,7 19,8 19,9 20,1 20,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 21,6 21,1 20,6 20,2 19,8 19,3 18,9 18,7 18,6 18,6 18,6 18,8 18,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 21,6 21,1 20,6 20,1 19,5 18,8 18,2 17,7 17,5 17,3 17,3 17,3 17,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 21,6 21,1 20,6 20,2 19,9 19,5 19,2 19,0 19,0 19,0 19,1 19,2 19,4
NL Baseline 2.008,7 1.993,4 1.976,9 1.961,5 1.949,8 1.939,0 1.928,0 1.917,9 1.913,3 1.912,3 1.915,9 1.924,1 1.936,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.008,7 1.993,4 1.976,9 1.957,0 1.933,8 1.904,1 1.874,0 1.845,2 1.823,0 1.806,0 1.795,6 1.791,9 1.794,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.008,7 1.993,4 1.976,9 1.953,6 1.923,5 1.882,5 1.840,6 1.799,1 1.763,7 1.733,1 1.709,3 1.692,9 1.683,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.008,7 1.993,4 1.976,9 1.958,1 1.937,5 1.912,0 1.886,4 1.861,8 1.843,8 1.830,5 1.823,6 1.823,2 1.828,6
PL Baseline 899,1 907,9 918,4 923,9 932,8 943,1 954,7 967,1 982,4 997,8 1.013,3 1.029,8 1.046,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 899,1 907,9 918,4 921,0 924,5 926,1 928,9 931,7 936,5 940,3 942,9 945,8 947,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 899,1 907,9 918,4 918,7 918,4 914,3 911,7 908,6 906,7 902,8 896,6 889,8 880,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 899,1 907,9 918,4 921,1 925,0 927,7 931,5 935,5 941,6 946,5 950,3 954,2 957,1
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 1.323,5 1.298,7 1.268,7 1.254,4 1.233,6 1.212,2 1.191,2 1.171,9 1.158,3 1.148,6 1.144,0 1.144,4 1.148,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.323,5 1.298,7 1.268,7 1.251,7 1.222,8 1.188,4 1.154,4 1.123,0 1.098,6 1.079,8 1.067,5 1.061,6 1.060,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.323,5 1.298,7 1.268,7 1.250,0 1.216,5 1.174,6 1.133,2 1.094,4 1.063,1 1.037,8 1.019,7 1.008,5 1.002,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.323,5 1.298,7 1.268,7 1.252,1 1.224,9 1.193,1 1.161,8 1.132,7 1.110,5 1.093,4 1.082,6 1.078,0 1.078,2
SE Baseline 647,4 639,2 630,2 623,1 616,9 612,6 610,5 610,5 613,3 616,3 618,9 620,3 621,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 647,4 639,2 630,2 622,5 613,4 604,2 598,1 595,0 595,3 596,1 596,6 596,1 595,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 647,4 639,2 630,2 621,1 609,2 596,4 587,3 581,9 580,0 578,8 576,7 573,2 568,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 647,4 639,2 630,2 622,9 614,6 606,7 601,8 599,7 600,7 602,4 603,6 603,9 603,7
SI Baseline 50,7 50,7 50,7 50,8 51,2 51,5 52,0 52,6 53,5 54,6 55,7 57,0 58,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 50,7 50,7 50,7 50,7 50,5 50,3 50,1 50,1 50,5 50,9 51,6 52,3 53,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 50,7 50,7 50,7 50,5 50,2 49,5 49,0 48,7 48,6 48,8 49,0 49,4 50,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 50,7 50,7 50,7 50,7 50,6 50,5 50,4 50,5 51,0 51,6 52,3 53,1 54,1
UK Baseline 8.160,6 8.097,4 8.031,1 7.997,3 7.985,5 7.993,3 8.019,2 8.063,2 8.134,8 8.221,7 8.323,3 8.437,9 8.563,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.160,6 8.097,4 8.031,1 7.982,1 7.919,3 7.840,2 7.783,6 7.752,0 7.756,6 7.785,2 7.837,2 7.911,2 8.005,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.160,6 8.097,4 8.031,1 7.962,1 7.858,1 7.714,9 7.595,4 7.500,5 7.442,9 7.410,2 7.402,6 7.419,5 7.459,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.160,6 8.097,4 8.031,1 7.986,7 7.935,6 7.875,3 7.837,5 7.823,0 7.843,3 7.885,9 7.950,9 8.036,7 8.141,8
Fix resource costs medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 0 214.372 222.802 232.173 242.723 254.389 258.296 262.148 266.268 270.589 294.522 299.224 304.266 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 214.372 222.802 232.173 242.723 254.389 258.296 262.148 266.268 270.589 294.522 299.224 304.266 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 214.372 222.802 232.173 242.723 254.389 258.296 262.148 266.268 270.589 294.522 299.224 304.266 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 214.372 222.802 232.173 242.723 254.389 258.296 262.148 266.268 270.589 294.522 299.224 304.266
EU15 Baseline 0 200.575 208.446 217.203 227.070 237.998 241.563 245.088 248.862 252.828 265.749 269.946 274.449 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 200.575 208.446 217.203 227.070 237.998 241.563 245.088 248.862 252.828 265.749 269.946 274.449 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 200.575 208.446 217.203 227.070 237.998 241.563 245.088 248.862 252.828 265.749 269.946 274.449 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 200.575 208.446 217.203 227.070 237.998 241.563 245.088 248.862 252.828 265.749 269.946 274.449
EU10 Baseline 0 13.797 14.357 14.970 15.653 16.391 16.733 17.060 17.406 17.761 28.774 29.278 29.818 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 13.797 14.357 14.970 15.653 16.391 16.733 17.060 17.406 17.761 28.774 29.278 29.818 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 13.797 14.357 14.970 15.653 16.391 16.733 17.060 17.406 17.761 28.774 29.278 29.818 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 13.797 14.357 14.970 15.653 16.391 16.733 17.060 17.406 17.761 28.774 29.278 29.818
AT Baseline 0,0 5.115,0 5.361,5 5.610,3 5.890,5 6.188,7 6.329,2 6.449,4 6.569,0 6.693,0 6.823,1 6.973,3 7.137,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 5.115,0 5.361,5 5.610,3 5.890,5 6.188,7 6.329,2 6.449,4 6.569,0 6.693,0 6.823,1 6.973,3 7.137,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 5.115,0 5.361,5 5.610,3 5.890,5 6.188,7 6.329,2 6.449,4 6.569,0 6.693,0 6.823,1 6.973,3 7.137,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 5.115,0 5.361,5 5.610,3 5.890,5 6.188,7 6.329,2 6.449,4 6.569,0 6.693,0 6.823,1 6.973,3 7.137,6
BE Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 8.729,0 8.890,6 9.061,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 8.729,0 8.890,6 9.061,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 8.729,0 8.890,6 9.061,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 8.729,0 8.890,6 9.061,4
CZ Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.585,2 1.625,9 1.680,8 1.740,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.585,2 1.625,9 1.680,8 1.740,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.585,2 1.625,9 1.680,8 1.740,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.585,2 1.625,9 1.680,8 1.740,2
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 0,0 68.488,7 68.869,2 69.293,4 69.786,4 70.333,9 71.122,5 71.982,5 72.947,5 73.952,5 75.012,9 76.587,7 78.272,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 68.488,7 68.869,2 69.293,4 69.786,4 70.333,9 71.122,5 71.982,5 72.947,5 73.952,5 75.012,9 76.587,7 78.272,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 68.488,7 68.869,2 69.293,4 69.786,4 70.333,9 71.122,5 71.982,5 72.947,5 73.952,5 75.012,9 76.587,7 78.272,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 68.488,7 68.869,2 69.293,4 69.786,4 70.333,9 71.122,5 71.982,5 72.947,5 73.952,5 75.012,9 76.587,7 78.272,9
DK Baseline 0,0 1.245,8 1.370,0 1.503,1 1.648,2 1.805,8 1.821,7 1.835,5 1.851,1 1.867,4 1.884,6 1.893,0 1.906,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.245,8 1.370,0 1.503,1 1.648,2 1.805,8 1.821,7 1.835,5 1.851,1 1.867,4 1.884,6 1.893,0 1.906,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.245,8 1.370,0 1.503,1 1.648,2 1.805,8 1.821,7 1.835,5 1.851,1 1.867,4 1.884,6 1.893,0 1.906,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.245,8 1.370,0 1.503,1 1.648,2 1.805,8 1.821,7 1.835,5 1.851,1 1.867,4 1.884,6 1.893,0 1.906,4
ES Baseline 0,0 11.331,1 12.549,9 13.934,2 15.506,7 17.283,3 17.830,1 18.412,0 19.033,2 19.684,9 20.369,6 20.718,4 21.070,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 11.331,1 12.549,9 13.934,2 15.506,7 17.283,3 17.830,1 18.412,0 19.033,2 19.684,9 20.369,6 20.718,4 21.070,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 11.331,1 12.549,9 13.934,2 15.506,7 17.283,3 17.830,1 18.412,0 19.033,2 19.684,9 20.369,6 20.718,4 21.070,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 11.331,1 12.549,9 13.934,2 15.506,7 17.283,3 17.830,1 18.412,0 19.033,2 19.684,9 20.369,6 20.718,4 21.070,0
FI Baseline 0,0 1.510,9 1.870,1 2.325,7 2.902,6 3.618,2 3.704,6 3.764,7 3.827,5 3.892,0 3.958,5 3.991,2 4.025,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.510,9 1.870,1 2.325,7 2.902,6 3.618,2 3.704,6 3.764,7 3.827,5 3.892,0 3.958,5 3.991,2 4.025,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.510,9 1.870,1 2.325,7 2.902,6 3.618,2 3.704,6 3.764,7 3.827,5 3.892,0 3.958,5 3.991,2 4.025,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.510,9 1.870,1 2.325,7 2.902,6 3.618,2 3.704,6 3.764,7 3.827,5 3.892,0 3.958,5 3.991,2 4.025,6
FR Baseline 0,0 33.836,5 34.876,0 36.016,5 37.206,7 38.458,1 38.951,3 39.526,4 40.149,9 40.809,3 41.511,4 41.929,7 42.386,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 33.836,5 34.876,0 36.016,5 37.206,7 38.458,1 38.951,3 39.526,4 40.149,9 40.809,3 41.511,4 41.929,7 42.386,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 33.836,5 34.876,0 36.016,5 37.206,7 38.458,1 38.951,3 39.526,4 40.149,9 40.809,3 41.511,4 41.929,7 42.386,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 33.836,5 34.876,0 36.016,5 37.206,7 38.458,1 38.951,3 39.526,4 40.149,9 40.809,3 41.511,4 41.929,7 42.386,8
GR Baseline 0,0 598,2 653,9 720,0 795,7 884,8 922,6 953,9 986,4 1.020,3 1.055,7 1.053,9 1.050,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 598,2 653,9 720,0 795,7 884,8 922,6 953,9 986,4 1.020,3 1.055,7 1.053,9 1.050,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 598,2 653,9 720,0 795,7 884,8 922,6 953,9 986,4 1.020,3 1.055,7 1.053,9 1.050,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 598,2 653,9 720,0 795,7 884,8 922,6 953,9 986,4 1.020,3 1.055,7 1.053,9 1.050,3
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.201,5 1.239,6 1.272,2 1.303,8 1.339,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.201,5 1.239,6 1.272,2 1.303,8 1.339,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.201,5 1.239,6 1.272,2 1.303,8 1.339,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.201,5 1.239,6 1.272,2 1.303,8 1.339,0
IE Baseline 0,0 918,5 1.067,8 1.244,6 1.454,4 1.703,1 1.768,7 1.832,4 1.901,0 1.972,6 2.048,1 2.095,5 2.143,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 918,5 1.067,8 1.244,6 1.454,4 1.703,1 1.768,7 1.832,4 1.901,0 1.972,6 2.048,1 2.095,5 2.143,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 918,5 1.067,8 1.244,6 1.454,4 1.703,1 1.768,7 1.832,4 1.901,0 1.972,6 2.048,1 2.095,5 2.143,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 918,5 1.067,8 1.244,6 1.454,4 1.703,1 1.768,7 1.832,4 1.901,0 1.972,6 2.048,1 2.095,5 2.143,0
IT Baseline 0,0 20.798,1 23.155,8 25.783,9 28.802,6 32.216,7 32.410,6 32.525,5 32.656,6 32.798,6 32.951,7 33.336,5 33.756,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 20.798,1 23.155,8 25.783,9 28.802,6 32.216,7 32.410,6 32.525,5 32.656,6 32.798,6 32.951,7 33.336,5 33.756,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 20.798,1 23.155,8 25.783,9 28.802,6 32.216,7 32.410,6 32.525,5 32.656,6 32.798,6 32.951,7 33.336,5 33.756,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 20.798,1 23.155,8 25.783,9 28.802,6 32.216,7 32.410,6 32.525,5 32.656,6 32.798,6 32.951,7 33.336,5 33.756,3
LU Baseline 0,0 695,5 748,6 809,3 878,8 957,7 982,7 1.006,0 1.031,4 1.057,8 1.085,1 1.113,5 1.143,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 695,5 748,6 809,3 878,8 957,7 982,7 1.006,0 1.031,4 1.057,8 1.085,1 1.113,5 1.143,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 695,5 748,6 809,3 878,8 957,7 982,7 1.006,0 1.031,4 1.057,8 1.085,1 1.113,5 1.143,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 695,5 748,6 809,3 878,8 957,7 982,7 1.006,0 1.031,4 1.057,8 1.085,1 1.113,5 1.143,3
NL Baseline 0,0 5.836,8 6.069,3 6.322,5 6.599,9 6.903,2 7.045,8 7.190,3 7.344,4 7.501,8 7.663,8 7.842,3 8.030,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 5.836,8 6.069,3 6.322,5 6.599,9 6.903,2 7.045,8 7.190,3 7.344,4 7.501,8 7.663,8 7.842,3 8.030,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 5.836,8 6.069,3 6.322,5 6.599,9 6.903,2 7.045,8 7.190,3 7.344,4 7.501,8 7.663,8 7.842,3 8.030,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 5.836,8 6.069,3 6.322,5 6.599,9 6.903,2 7.045,8 7.190,3 7.344,4 7.501,8 7.663,8 7.842,3 8.030,5
PL Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 6.714,8 7.076,1 7.432,9 7.683,4 7.947,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 6.714,8 7.076,1 7.432,9 7.683,4 7.947,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 6.714,8 7.076,1 7.432,9 7.683,4 7.947,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 6.714,8 7.076,1 7.432,9 7.683,4 7.947,7
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 0,0 2.605,3 2.716,0 2.833,5 2.959,6 3.093,5 3.119,5 3.158,8 3.202,1 3.246,7 3.292,9 3.272,6 3.252,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.605,3 2.716,0 2.833,5 2.959,6 3.093,5 3.119,5 3.158,8 3.202,1 3.246,7 3.292,9 3.272,6 3.252,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.605,3 2.716,0 2.833,5 2.959,6 3.093,5 3.119,5 3.158,8 3.202,1 3.246,7 3.292,9 3.272,6 3.252,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.605,3 2.716,0 2.833,5 2.959,6 3.093,5 3.119,5 3.158,8 3.202,1 3.246,7 3.292,9 3.272,6 3.252,5
SE Baseline 0,0 4.878,3 5.049,5 5.232,6 5.439,5 5.653,1 5.752,9 5.845,2 5.941,7 6.041,8 6.146,0 6.220,8 6.308,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 4.878,3 5.049,5 5.232,6 5.439,5 5.653,1 5.752,9 5.845,2 5.941,7 6.041,8 6.146,0 6.220,8 6.308,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 4.878,3 5.049,5 5.232,6 5.439,5 5.653,1 5.752,9 5.845,2 5.941,7 6.041,8 6.146,0 6.220,8 6.308,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 4.878,3 5.049,5 5.232,6 5.439,5 5.653,1 5.752,9 5.845,2 5.941,7 6.041,8 6.146,0 6.220,8 6.308,2
SI Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 405,2 411,8 419,0 426,6 434,4 444,9 456,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 405,2 411,8 419,0 426,6 434,4 444,9 456,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 405,2 411,8 419,0 426,6 434,4 444,9 456,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 405,2 411,8 419,0 426,6 434,4 444,9 456,7
UK Baseline 0,0 42.716,6 44.087,9 45.573,6 47.198,7 48.897,8 49.801,0 50.605,3 51.420,4 52.289,7 53.216,4 54.026,8 54.904,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 42.716,6 44.087,9 45.573,6 47.198,7 48.897,8 49.801,0 50.605,3 51.420,4 52.289,7 53.216,4 54.026,8 54.904,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 42.716,6 44.087,9 45.573,6 47.198,7 48.897,8 49.801,0 50.605,3 51.420,4 52.289,7 53.216,4 54.026,8 54.904,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 42.716,6 44.087,9 45.573,6 47.198,7 48.897,8 49.801,0 50.605,3 51.420,4 52.289,7 53.216,4 54.026,8 54.904,1
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 310.135 316.438 323.198 330.247 338.102 346.349 354.966 363.925 373.192 382.740 392.538 402.556 412.770 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 310.135 316.438 323.198 330.018 337.740 346.339 355.247 364.432 373.859 383.503 393.339 403.348 413.523 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 310.135 316.438 323.198 330.287 338.569 348.012 357.746 367.763 378.025 388.499 399.157 409.975 420.940 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 310.135 316.438 323.198 330.034 337.722 346.131 354.852 363.866 373.138 382.645 392.360 402.262 412.338
EU15 Baseline 279.673 285.274 291.268 297.548 304.527 311.867 319.551 327.559 335.865 344.441 353.257 362.285 371.499 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 279.673 285.274 291.268 297.363 304.263 311.953 319.933 328.179 336.663 345.360 354.245 363.296 372.503 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 279.673 285.274 291.268 297.603 305.004 313.445 322.162 331.150 340.379 349.816 359.434 369.205 379.116 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 279.673 285.274 291.268 297.378 304.252 311.776 319.594 327.692 336.042 344.619 353.396 362.351 371.471
EU10 Baseline 30.462 31.164 31.930 32.699 33.575 34.483 35.415 36.365 37.327 38.299 39.281 40.272 41.271 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 30.462 31.164 31.930 32.655 33.477 34.386 35.314 36.253 37.196 38.143 39.094 40.052 41.020 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 30.462 31.164 31.930 32.684 33.566 34.566 35.584 36.613 37.646 38.683 39.723 40.770 41.825 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 30.462 31.164 31.930 32.656 33.471 34.355 35.257 36.173 37.096 38.027 38.964 39.911 40.867
AT Baseline 7.324,2 7.527,3 7.746,5 7.964,7 8.220,7 8.482,9 8.747,3 9.011,1 9.272,7 9.531,9 9.789,6 10.047,2 10.306,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.324,2 7.527,3 7.746,5 7.959,7 8.200,4 8.459,5 8.719,8 8.978,6 9.234,6 9.487,8 9.739,2 9.990,4 10.243,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.324,2 7.527,3 7.746,5 7.965,8 8.218,3 8.494,2 8.770,5 9.045,2 9.317,0 9.586,1 9.853,5 10.121,0 10.390,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.324,2 7.527,3 7.746,5 7.960,1 8.199,9 8.454,1 8.709,7 8.964,4 9.216,8 9.466,9 9.715,6 9.964,5 10.215,6
BE Baseline 9.252,9 9.454,9 9.667,6 9.853,5 10.087,9 10.330,2 10.579,0 10.833,1 11.091,6 11.353,5 11.617,9 11.884,2 12.151,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.252,9 9.454,9 9.667,6 9.851,3 10.066,8 10.308,5 10.555,9 10.807,3 11.060,5 11.315,2 11.571,2 11.828,8 12.088,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.252,9 9.454,9 9.667,6 9.859,7 10.091,7 10.357,3 10.628,0 10.902,6 11.179,1 11.456,9 11.735,7 12.015,5 12.296,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.252,9 9.454,9 9.667,6 9.851,0 10.063,5 10.295,7 10.533,6 10.776,4 11.022,4 11.271,4 11.523,1 11.777,2 12.033,6
CZ Baseline 1.804,7 1.874,4 1.949,9 2.001,8 2.055,3 2.111,2 2.169,5 2.230,0 2.292,5 2.357,1 2.424,7 2.496,3 2.573,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.804,7 1.874,4 1.949,9 2.003,6 2.060,5 2.122,7 2.187,4 2.254,1 2.322,6 2.393,1 2.466,4 2.543,7 2.626,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.804,7 1.874,4 1.949,9 2.005,2 2.065,0 2.131,6 2.200,8 2.272,1 2.345,2 2.420,6 2.499,2 2.582,7 2.672,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.804,7 1.874,4 1.949,9 2.003,6 2.060,3 2.121,3 2.184,8 2.250,5 2.317,9 2.387,5 2.460,1 2.536,9 2.619,2
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 80.208,3 82.237,6 84.360,6 86.407,8 88.612,7 90.904,6 93.280,1 95.735,8 98.268,3 100.875,3 103.553,7 106.300,6 109.113,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 80.208,3 82.237,6 84.360,6 86.325,5 88.502,7 90.891,5 93.346,9 95.865,7 98.446,5 101.087,7 103.786,4 106.542,6 109.358,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 80.208,3 82.237,6 84.360,6 86.396,3 88.716,4 91.317,2 93.976,1 96.698,1 99.482,4 102.325,8 105.225,4 108.180,9 111.193,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 80.208,3 82.237,6 84.360,6 86.328,2 88.494,1 90.833,4 93.241,4 95.717,8 98.259,7 100.865,4 103.531,9 106.258,7 109.046,9
DK Baseline 1.934,1 1.972,5 2.024,4 2.066,4 2.112,7 2.164,9 2.223,1 2.286,3 2.352,1 2.417,0 2.477,3 2.530,6 2.576,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.934,1 1.972,5 2.024,4 2.055,1 2.091,0 2.135,2 2.184,8 2.239,0 2.295,5 2.351,3 2.403,4 2.449,5 2.489,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.934,1 1.972,5 2.024,4 2.056,8 2.096,2 2.146,3 2.202,3 2.263,2 2.326,4 2.388,7 2.446,6 2.497,9 2.542,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.934,1 1.972,5 2.024,4 2.055,3 2.091,1 2.134,2 2.182,5 2.235,3 2.290,5 2.345,2 2.396,4 2.442,1 2.481,8
ES Baseline 21.455,0 21.869,9 22.317,9 22.866,5 23.471,0 24.109,8 24.784,4 25.495,6 26.243,8 27.029,5 27.852,1 28.710,1 29.601,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 21.455,0 21.869,9 22.317,9 22.869,4 23.483,4 24.155,1 24.860,6 25.600,4 26.373,8 27.180,9 28.020,8 28.892,0 29.792,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 21.455,0 21.869,9 22.317,9 22.881,0 23.520,7 24.231,5 24.976,4 25.757,1 26.572,5 27.422,6 28.306,5 29.222,6 30.169,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 21.455,0 21.869,9 22.317,9 22.870,4 23.483,1 24.145,1 24.840,5 25.570,3 26.333,9 27.131,8 27.963,0 28.826,0 29.719,2
FI Baseline 4.076,2 4.138,3 4.214,8 4.326,9 4.459,6 4.606,4 4.770,5 4.955,1 5.160,6 5.383,4 5.614,3 5.841,7 6.054,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.076,2 4.138,3 4.214,8 4.314,0 4.430,6 4.565,6 4.716,6 4.885,8 5.073,6 5.276,5 5.486,6 5.694,0 5.889,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.076,2 4.138,3 4.214,8 4.316,3 4.439,3 4.585,3 4.748,3 4.931,2 5.134,3 5.353,6 5.580,5 5.804,1 6.014,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.076,2 4.138,3 4.214,8 4.314,3 4.431,0 4.564,4 4.712,9 4.879,2 5.063,7 5.263,2 5.470,2 5.675,1 5.868,7
FR Baseline 42.920,0 43.505,8 44.144,6 44.953,6 45.897,0 46.895,8 47.946,5 49.045,6 50.189,0 51.373,2 52.594,9 53.850,9 55.138,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 42.920,0 43.505,8 44.144,6 44.959,6 45.914,3 46.993,1 48.115,3 49.276,5 50.470,9 51.695,9 52.948,6 54.226,2 55.527,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 42.920,0 43.505,8 44.144,6 44.998,7 46.037,0 47.240,3 48.485,3 49.769,6 51.086,7 52.432,6 53.803,5 55.195,7 56.606,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 42.920,0 43.505,8 44.144,6 44.963,3 45.916,4 46.971,6 48.071,0 49.211,5 50.388,0 51.597,3 52.836,2 54.101,6 55.391,9
GR Baseline 1.049,5 1.050,8 1.054,2 1.073,0 1.094,6 1.117,0 1.140,2 1.164,2 1.188,9 1.214,6 1.241,0 1.268,4 1.296,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.049,5 1.050,8 1.054,2 1.071,8 1.091,8 1.113,2 1.135,3 1.158,1 1.181,7 1.206,1 1.231,3 1.257,2 1.284,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.049,5 1.050,8 1.054,2 1.072,0 1.092,7 1.115,2 1.138,6 1.162,8 1.187,8 1.213,6 1.240,3 1.267,8 1.296,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.049,5 1.050,8 1.054,2 1.071,8 1.091,9 1.113,1 1.135,1 1.157,9 1.181,4 1.205,7 1.230,8 1.256,6 1.283,4
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 1.379,3 1.424,1 1.473,7 1.505,9 1.538,4 1.572,2 1.607,6 1.645,4 1.686,2 1.730,9 1.780,2 1.834,7 1.894,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.379,3 1.424,1 1.473,7 1.506,5 1.540,7 1.577,6 1.616,0 1.656,7 1.700,4 1.747,8 1.799,5 1.855,5 1.915,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.379,3 1.424,1 1.473,7 1.507,5 1.543,3 1.582,8 1.624,0 1.667,8 1.715,1 1.766,8 1.823,3 1.885,1 1.951,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.379,3 1.424,1 1.473,7 1.506,5 1.540,4 1.576,7 1.614,5 1.654,6 1.697,7 1.744,5 1.795,6 1.851,2 1.911,0
IE Baseline 2.199,3 2.259,1 2.322,5 2.411,2 2.510,9 2.615,5 2.724,9 2.838,8 2.957,1 3.079,6 3.206,1 3.336,5 3.470,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.199,3 2.259,1 2.322,5 2.405,1 2.498,3 2.600,0 2.706,2 2.816,7 2.931,6 3.050,7 3.173,9 3.301,0 3.432,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.199,3 2.259,1 2.322,5 2.407,0 2.504,9 2.614,0 2.727,6 2.845,8 2.968,5 3.095,5 3.226,6 3.361,7 3.500,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.199,3 2.259,1 2.322,5 2.405,4 2.498,9 2.600,0 2.705,7 2.815,9 2.930,4 3.049,2 3.172,1 3.299,1 3.430,2
IT Baseline 34.224,7 34.723,1 35.252,4 35.700,1 36.204,1 36.740,6 37.308,3 37.905,2 38.529,1 39.176,4 39.843,9 40.528,4 41.226,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 34.224,7 34.723,1 35.252,4 35.699,7 36.212,1 36.798,2 37.411,1 38.048,3 38.705,2 39.378,2 40.064,8 40.761,3 41.465,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 34.224,7 34.723,1 35.252,4 35.722,6 36.280,5 36.935,6 37.616,5 38.322,7 39.048,9 39.791,5 40.547,3 41.312,7 42.085,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 34.224,7 34.723,1 35.252,4 35.701,3 36.211,1 36.780,3 37.375,8 37.996,4 38.638,2 39.297,8 39.972,3 40.658,5 41.353,7
LU Baseline 1.176,5 1.211,0 1.246,7 1.278,7 1.317,8 1.357,8 1.398,2 1.438,9 1.479,6 1.520,1 1.560,5 1.600,7 1.641,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.176,5 1.211,0 1.246,7 1.276,7 1.312,2 1.351,6 1.391,5 1.431,8 1.472,2 1.512,6 1.553,0 1.593,4 1.634,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.176,5 1.211,0 1.246,7 1.278,7 1.318,0 1.363,0 1.408,1 1.453,2 1.497,8 1.541,7 1.584,9 1.627,3 1.669,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.176,5 1.211,0 1.246,7 1.277,1 1.312,7 1.351,5 1.390,8 1.430,5 1.470,4 1.510,5 1.550,5 1.590,7 1.631,1
NL Baseline 8.243,9 8.469,9 8.709,8 8.956,1 9.225,4 9.502,6 9.783,5 10.065,6 10.347,8 10.631,3 10.918,4 11.211,0 11.509,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.243,9 8.469,9 8.709,8 8.943,6 9.203,4 9.487,2 9.771,7 10.054,4 10.334,4 10.613,5 10.894,5 11.179,8 11.470,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.243,9 8.469,9 8.709,8 8.952,7 9.232,2 9.546,0 9.860,6 10.173,6 10.484,2 10.793,9 11.105,7 11.421,8 11.743,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.243,9 8.469,9 8.709,8 8.944,1 9.202,5 9.479,4 9.757,6 10.035,0 10.310,8 10.586,4 10.864,3 11.146,5 11.433,9
PL Baseline 8.228,1 8.525,4 8.840,0 9.093,8 9.351,2 9.616,6 9.892,5 10.183,2 10.492,9 10.824,9 11.181,8 11.565,8 11.977,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.228,1 8.525,4 8.840,0 9.100,3 9.371,1 9.660,3 9.960,5 10.276,4 10.612,9 10.973,6 11.361,7 11.779,7 12.228,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.228,1 8.525,4 8.840,0 9.106,6 9.389,3 9.696,6 10.014,9 10.349,8 10.707,4 11.092,2 11.508,3 11.959,0 12.444,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.228,1 8.525,4 8.840,0 9.100,8 9.371,5 9.657,7 9.954,9 10.267,9 10.601,6 10.959,9 11.346,2 11.763,1 12.210,8
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 3.234,9 3.220,3 3.209,6 3.251,4 3.302,9 3.361,9 3.428,0 3.499,6 3.574,1 3.649,5 3.724,6 3.798,9 3.873,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.234,9 3.220,3 3.209,6 3.253,1 3.309,6 3.378,1 3.453,4 3.533,8 3.616,4 3.699,1 3.780,6 3.860,6 3.939,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.234,9 3.220,3 3.209,6 3.254,8 3.315,9 3.391,5 3.474,3 3.562,5 3.653,1 3.743,7 3.832,8 3.920,0 4.005,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.234,9 3.220,3 3.209,6 3.253,1 3.308,8 3.375,0 3.448,1 3.526,5 3.607,4 3.688,7 3.768,9 3.847,6 3.925,5
SE Baseline 6.432,3 6.579,1 6.751,2 6.930,6 7.123,3 7.326,0 7.537,7 7.756,6 7.980,1 8.206,2 8.432,8 8.659,1 8.884,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.432,3 6.579,1 6.751,2 6.910,7 7.088,9 7.288,0 7.495,0 7.707,8 7.924,3 8.142,3 8.360,2 8.577,2 8.793,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.432,3 6.579,1 6.751,2 6.916,4 7.107,3 7.325,8 7.551,9 7.783,7 8.019,0 8.255,5 8.491,4 8.726,2 8.960,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.432,3 6.579,1 6.751,2 6.910,9 7.088,2 7.282,6 7.484,6 7.692,7 7.904,5 8.118,3 8.332,5 8.546,4 8.760,1
SI Baseline 470,2 485,0 501,3 520,1 540,4 561,9 584,7 608,4 632,8 657,6 682,8 708,5 735,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 470,2 485,0 501,3 520,1 540,9 563,8 587,8 612,4 637,6 663,0 688,6 714,4 740,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 470,2 485,0 501,3 520,6 542,6 567,4 593,2 619,8 646,8 674,1 701,5 729,2 757,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 470,2 485,0 501,3 520,1 541,0 563,8 587,6 612,2 637,3 662,7 688,2 714,1 740,6
UK Baseline 55.941,3 57.054,2 58.245,1 59.508,0 60.886,3 62.350,6 63.899,4 65.527,9 67.229,9 68.999,6 70.830,3 72.716,5 74.653,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 55.941,3 57.054,2 58.245,1 59.467,8 60.857,9 62.428,4 64.068,8 65.774,9 67.541,7 69.362,0 71.230,1 73.141,8 75.094,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 55.941,3 57.054,2 58.245,1 59.523,9 61.032,8 62.782,0 64.597,1 66.478,7 68.420,8 70.414,6 72.452,8 74.529,7 76.641,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 55.941,3 57.054,2 58.245,1 59.472,1 60.858,4 62.396,0 64.004,8 65.682,9 67.423,8 69.221,0 71.068,0 72.960,3 74.895,2
variable resource costs medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 0 178.100 185.863 187.696 199.016 223.961 222.095 221.493 231.508 251.349 286.582 288.720 290.057 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 178.100 185.863 187.696 199.016 223.961 222.095 221.493 231.508 251.349 286.582 288.720 290.057 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 178.100 185.863 187.696 199.016 223.961 222.095 221.493 231.508 251.349 286.582 288.720 290.057 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 178.100 185.863 187.696 199.016 223.961 222.095 221.493 231.508 251.349 286.582 288.720 290.057
EU15 Baseline 0 164.425 171.677 173.399 183.776 206.535 204.880 204.385 213.082 231.392 255.190 257.097 258.305 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 164.425 171.677 173.399 183.776 206.535 204.880 204.385 213.082 231.392 255.191 257.097 258.305 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 164.425 171.677 173.399 183.776 206.535 204.880 204.385 213.082 231.392 255.191 257.097 258.305 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 164.425 171.677 173.399 183.776 206.535 204.880 204.385 213.082 231.392 255.191 257.097 258.305
EU10 Baseline 0 13.675 14.186 14.298 15.240 17.426 17.216 17.108 18.426 19.957 31.392 31.622 31.752 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 13.675 14.186 14.298 15.240 17.426 17.216 17.108 18.426 19.957 31.392 31.622 31.752 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 13.675 14.186 14.298 15.240 17.426 17.216 17.108 18.426 19.957 31.392 31.622 31.752 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 13.675 14.186 14.298 15.240 17.426 17.216 17.108 18.426 19.957 31.392 31.622 31.752
AT Baseline 0,0 4.377,9 4.609,9 4.675,5 4.913,0 5.500,6 5.508,4 5.554,5 5.692,2 6.277,6 6.666,9 6.757,2 6.822,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 4.377,9 4.609,9 4.675,5 4.913,0 5.500,6 5.508,4 5.554,5 5.692,2 6.277,6 6.666,9 6.757,2 6.822,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 4.377,9 4.609,9 4.675,5 4.913,0 5.500,6 5.508,4 5.554,5 5.692,2 6.277,6 6.666,9 6.757,2 6.822,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 4.377,9 4.609,9 4.675,5 4.913,0 5.500,6 5.508,4 5.554,5 5.692,2 6.277,6 6.666,9 6.757,2 6.822,8
BE Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 8.067,7 8.137,5 8.173,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 8.067,7 8.137,5 8.173,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 8.067,7 8.137,5 8.173,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 8.067,7 8.137,5 8.173,2
CZ Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.391,6 1.488,3 1.503,3 1.521,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.391,6 1.488,3 1.503,3 1.521,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.391,6 1.488,3 1.503,3 1.521,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.391,6 1.488,3 1.503,3 1.521,3
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 0,0 59.324,6 60.583,8 59.467,4 60.909,2 64.538,3 64.166,1 64.123,5 66.492,8 69.744,5 73.502,7 74.349,8 74.998,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 59.324,6 60.583,8 59.467,4 60.909,2 64.538,3 64.166,1 64.123,5 66.492,8 69.744,5 73.502,7 74.349,8 74.998,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 59.324,6 60.583,8 59.467,4 60.909,2 64.538,3 64.166,1 64.123,5 66.492,8 69.744,5 73.502,7 74.349,8 74.998,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 59.324,6 60.583,8 59.467,4 60.909,2 64.538,3 64.166,1 64.123,5 66.492,8 69.744,5 73.502,7 74.349,8 74.998,5
DK Baseline 0,0 1.404,0 1.546,8 1.618,5 1.826,2 2.248,0 2.174,5 2.173,0 2.375,6 2.581,8 2.809,6 2.803,9 2.789,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.404,0 1.546,8 1.618,5 1.826,2 2.248,0 2.174,5 2.173,0 2.375,6 2.581,8 2.809,6 2.803,9 2.789,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.404,0 1.546,8 1.618,5 1.826,2 2.248,0 2.174,5 2.173,0 2.375,6 2.581,8 2.809,6 2.803,9 2.789,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.404,0 1.546,8 1.618,5 1.826,2 2.248,0 2.174,5 2.173,0 2.375,6 2.581,8 2.809,6 2.803,9 2.789,0
ES Baseline 0,0 9.412,1 10.399,0 10.999,9 12.325,6 14.785,2 14.954,5 15.193,1 15.790,2 18.280,6 20.151,0 20.349,1 20.540,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 9.412,1 10.399,0 10.999,9 12.325,6 14.785,2 14.954,5 15.193,1 15.790,2 18.280,6 20.151,0 20.349,1 20.540,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 9.412,1 10.399,0 10.999,9 12.325,6 14.785,2 14.954,5 15.193,1 15.790,2 18.280,6 20.151,0 20.349,1 20.540,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 9.412,1 10.399,0 10.999,9 12.325,6 14.785,2 14.954,5 15.193,1 15.790,2 18.280,6 20.151,0 20.349,1 20.540,6
FI Baseline 0,0 1.554,5 1.857,4 2.175,4 2.781,9 3.801,9 3.751,6 3.800,2 4.214,1 4.616,1 5.048,5 5.100,8 5.127,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.554,5 1.857,4 2.175,4 2.781,9 3.801,9 3.751,6 3.800,2 4.214,1 4.616,1 5.048,5 5.100,8 5.127,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.554,5 1.857,4 2.175,4 2.781,9 3.801,9 3.751,6 3.800,2 4.214,1 4.616,1 5.048,5 5.100,8 5.127,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.554,5 1.857,4 2.175,4 2.781,9 3.801,9 3.751,6 3.800,2 4.214,1 4.616,1 5.048,5 5.100,8 5.127,5
FR Baseline 0,0 25.253,6 26.146,1 26.075,6 27.412,6 31.069,3 30.543,8 30.258,1 30.725,2 34.845,6 37.404,6 37.384,4 37.335,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 25.253,6 26.146,1 26.075,6 27.412,6 31.069,3 30.543,8 30.258,1 30.725,2 34.845,6 37.404,6 37.384,4 37.335,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 25.253,6 26.146,1 26.075,6 27.412,6 31.069,3 30.543,8 30.258,1 30.725,2 34.845,6 37.404,6 37.384,4 37.335,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 25.253,6 26.146,1 26.075,6 27.412,6 31.069,3 30.543,8 30.258,1 30.725,2 34.845,6 37.404,6 37.384,4 37.335,6
GR Baseline 0,0 550,3 610,1 643,1 732,6 950,0 944,5 954,2 991,6 1.209,9 1.362,7 1.348,6 1.336,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 550,3 610,1 643,1 732,6 950,0 944,5 954,2 991,6 1.209,9 1.362,7 1.348,6 1.336,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 550,3 610,1 643,1 732,6 950,0 944,5 954,2 991,6 1.209,9 1.362,7 1.348,6 1.336,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 550,3 610,1 643,1 732,6 950,0 944,5 954,2 991,6 1.209,9 1.362,7 1.348,6 1.336,0
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 811,6 921,8 1.010,4 1.028,0 1.047,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 811,6 921,8 1.010,4 1.028,0 1.047,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 811,6 921,8 1.010,4 1.028,0 1.047,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 811,6 921,8 1.010,4 1.028,0 1.047,2
IE Baseline 0,0 721,3 811,8 912,3 1.049,6 1.316,8 1.376,2 1.357,8 1.521,3 1.669,0 1.829,6 1.865,0 1.895,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 721,3 811,8 912,3 1.049,6 1.316,8 1.376,2 1.357,8 1.521,3 1.669,0 1.829,6 1.865,0 1.895,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 721,3 811,8 912,3 1.049,6 1.316,8 1.376,2 1.357,8 1.521,3 1.669,0 1.829,6 1.865,0 1.895,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 721,3 811,8 912,3 1.049,6 1.316,8 1.376,2 1.357,8 1.521,3 1.669,0 1.829,6 1.865,0 1.895,8
IT Baseline 0,0 18.850,9 20.752,4 22.261,0 25.047,2 30.080,9 29.341,4 29.295,3 30.081,6 33.475,3 35.692,3 35.977,6 35.999,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 18.850,9 20.752,4 22.261,0 25.047,2 30.080,9 29.341,4 29.295,3 30.081,6 33.475,3 35.692,3 35.977,6 35.999,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 18.850,9 20.752,4 22.261,0 25.047,2 30.080,9 29.341,4 29.295,3 30.081,6 33.475,3 35.692,3 35.977,6 35.999,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 18.850,9 20.752,4 22.261,0 25.047,2 30.080,9 29.341,4 29.295,3 30.081,6 33.475,3 35.692,3 35.977,6 35.999,3
LU Baseline 0,0 261,5 284,0 295,7 326,3 383,0 381,0 384,9 414,4 442,8 473,5 478,7 482,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 261,5 284,0 295,7 326,3 383,0 381,0 384,9 414,4 442,8 473,5 478,7 482,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 261,5 284,0 295,7 326,3 383,0 381,0 384,9 414,4 442,8 473,5 478,7 482,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 261,5 284,0 295,7 326,3 383,0 381,0 384,9 414,4 442,8 473,5 478,7 482,9
NL Baseline 0,0 5.301,9 5.458,4 5.494,3 5.829,4 6.650,5 6.468,1 6.407,5 7.023,6 7.563,3 8.169,9 8.270,0 8.330,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 5.301,9 5.458,4 5.494,3 5.829,4 6.650,5 6.468,1 6.407,5 7.023,6 7.563,3 8.169,9 8.270,0 8.330,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 5.301,9 5.458,4 5.494,3 5.829,4 6.650,5 6.468,1 6.407,5 7.023,6 7.563,3 8.169,9 8.270,0 8.330,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 5.301,9 5.458,4 5.494,3 5.829,4 6.650,5 6.468,1 6.407,5 7.023,6 7.563,3 8.169,9 8.270,0 8.330,1
PL Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 4.758,0 4.928,2 5.437,1 5.563,3 5.710,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 4.758,0 4.928,2 5.437,1 5.563,3 5.710,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 4.758,0 4.928,2 5.437,1 5.563,3 5.710,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 4.758,0 4.928,2 5.437,1 5.563,3 5.710,0
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 0,0 1.984,1 2.099,4 2.118,2 2.266,4 2.733,1 2.787,7 2.437,5 2.834,6 3.051,2 3.301,7 3.232,6 3.163,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.984,1 2.099,4 2.118,2 2.266,4 2.733,1 2.787,7 2.437,5 2.834,6 3.051,2 3.301,7 3.232,6 3.163,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.984,1 2.099,4 2.118,2 2.266,4 2.733,1 2.787,7 2.437,5 2.834,6 3.051,2 3.301,7 3.232,6 3.163,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.984,1 2.099,4 2.118,2 2.266,4 2.733,1 2.787,7 2.437,5 2.834,6 3.051,2 3.301,7 3.232,6 3.163,2
SE Baseline 0,0 5.361,1 5.563,8 5.586,7 5.934,8 6.688,8 6.704,2 6.666,7 7.094,5 7.591,1 8.140,8 8.174,4 8.197,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 5.361,1 5.563,8 5.586,7 5.934,8 6.688,8 6.704,2 6.666,7 7.094,5 7.591,1 8.140,8 8.174,4 8.197,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 5.361,1 5.563,8 5.586,7 5.934,8 6.688,8 6.704,2 6.666,7 7.094,5 7.591,1 8.140,8 8.174,4 8.197,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 5.361,1 5.563,8 5.586,7 5.934,8 6.688,8 6.704,2 6.666,7 7.094,5 7.591,1 8.140,8 8.174,4 8.197,4
SI Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 302,8 311,1 329,4 354,1 381,2 388,6 393,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 302,8 311,1 329,4 354,1 381,2 388,6 393,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 302,8 311,1 329,4 354,1 381,2 388,6 393,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 302,8 311,1 329,4 354,1 381,2 388,6 393,5
UK Baseline 0,0 30.067,1 30.954,6 31.075,2 32.421,1 35.788,9 35.777,6 35.778,8 37.830,3 40.043,4 42.568,8 42.868,0 43.113,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 30.067,1 30.954,6 31.075,2 32.421,1 35.788,9 35.777,6 35.778,8 37.830,3 40.043,4 42.568,8 42.868,0 43.113,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 30.067,1 30.954,6 31.075,2 32.421,1 35.788,9 35.777,6 35.778,8 37.830,3 40.043,4 42.568,8 42.868,0 43.113,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 30.067,1 30.954,6 31.075,2 32.421,1 35.788,9 35.777,6 35.778,8 37.830,3 40.043,4 42.568,8 42.868,0 43.113,1
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 291.289 292.752 294.401 297.955 302.012 306.524 311.440 316.912 323.957 331.440 339.368 347.541 355.989 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 291.289 292.752 294.401 297.740 301.394 305.401 309.854 314.909 321.556 328.677 336.288 344.186 352.375 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 291.289 292.752 294.401 297.852 301.774 306.233 311.188 316.783 323.986 331.686 339.883 348.358 357.105 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 291.289 292.752 294.401 297.871 301.792 306.169 310.976 316.366 323.342 330.777 338.686 346.862 355.320
EU15 Baseline 259.419 260.737 262.249 265.459 269.134 273.200 277.622 282.532 288.792 295.430 302.470 309.740 317.247 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 259.419 260.737 262.249 265.281 268.623 272.277 276.325 280.900 286.838 293.183 299.966 307.011 314.308 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 259.419 260.737 262.249 265.380 268.960 273.015 277.509 282.563 288.995 295.855 303.159 310.717 318.509 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 259.419 260.737 262.249 265.393 268.961 272.928 277.276 282.133 288.352 294.965 302.002 309.286 316.814
EU10 Baseline 31.870 32.015 32.152 32.496 32.878 33.324 33.817 34.381 35.165 36.009 36.898 37.801 38.741 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 31.870 32.015 32.152 32.459 32.771 33.124 33.529 34.010 34.718 35.494 36.323 37.175 38.067 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 31.870 32.015 32.152 32.472 32.814 33.217 33.679 34.220 34.990 35.830 36.724 37.641 38.596 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 31.870 32.015 32.152 32.478 32.831 33.240 33.700 34.233 34.991 35.812 36.684 37.576 38.507
AT Baseline 6.884,2 6.950,7 7.026,9 7.140,1 7.288,9 7.454,4 7.633,1 7.829,4 8.042,1 8.262,2 8.488,3 8.714,0 8.940,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.884,2 6.950,7 7.026,9 7.134,2 7.271,1 7.421,3 7.586,0 7.769,2 7.969,4 8.177,7 8.392,7 8.608,8 8.825,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.884,2 6.950,7 7.026,9 7.136,9 7.280,2 7.440,7 7.616,9 7.812,2 8.025,0 8.246,3 8.474,7 8.704,2 8.934,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.884,2 6.950,7 7.026,9 7.137,2 7.280,0 7.438,1 7.610,1 7.800,2 8.006,8 8.221,1 8.441,9 8.663,4 8.885,8
BE Baseline 8.209,0 8.249,9 8.287,5 8.392,7 8.502,3 8.639,4 8.788,2 8.948,6 9.123,9 9.314,1 9.503,1 9.693,8 9.893,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.209,0 8.249,9 8.287,5 8.382,1 8.472,7 8.582,8 8.705,4 8.841,4 8.995,7 9.169,0 9.344,9 9.525,4 9.715,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.209,0 8.249,9 8.287,5 8.386,7 8.487,2 8.613,5 8.753,3 8.907,3 9.079,3 9.270,0 9.462,9 9.659,7 9.865,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.209,0 8.249,9 8.287,5 8.388,5 8.491,5 8.619,5 8.759,8 8.912,4 9.081,4 9.267,1 9.453,2 9.642,7 9.841,6
CZ Baseline 1.544,3 1.574,9 1.608,3 1.642,8 1.678,9 1.714,9 1.751,6 1.791,3 1.838,9 1.889,6 1.943,4 1.996,0 2.051,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.544,3 1.574,9 1.608,3 1.641,4 1.675,1 1.707,8 1.741,1 1.777,7 1.822,2 1.870,0 1.920,9 1.970,8 2.023,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.544,3 1.574,9 1.608,3 1.642,0 1.676,8 1.711,2 1.746,7 1.785,5 1.832,4 1.882,8 1.936,6 1.989,8 2.046,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.544,3 1.574,9 1.608,3 1.642,5 1.678,0 1.713,3 1.749,4 1.788,7 1.836,0 1.886,7 1.940,5 1.993,5 2.049,3
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 75.798,0 76.672,0 77.650,1 78.846,1 80.239,6 81.766,7 83.357,6 85.080,7 87.230,4 89.472,9 91.797,6 94.181,7 96.636,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 75.798,0 76.672,0 77.650,1 78.804,4 80.121,3 81.562,9 83.079,3 84.737,2 86.822,6 89.005,7 91.280,5 93.622,0 96.034,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 75.798,0 76.672,0 77.650,1 78.832,0 80.215,8 81.770,1 83.412,7 85.206,2 87.431,7 89.760,7 92.183,4 94.671,0 97.225,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 75.798,0 76.672,0 77.650,1 78.829,5 80.196,9 81.705,9 83.285,5 85.002,2 87.147,8 89.389,6 91.720,6 94.115,7 96.581,6
DK Baseline 2.771,7 2.757,2 2.749,7 2.738,9 2.731,1 2.727,0 2.725,1 2.730,8 2.773,2 2.824,1 2.886,7 2.954,7 3.026,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.771,7 2.757,2 2.749,7 2.733,2 2.716,4 2.700,4 2.686,8 2.681,4 2.713,0 2.753,9 2.807,7 2.868,2 2.933,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.771,7 2.757,2 2.749,7 2.733,8 2.718,5 2.705,4 2.695,3 2.693,8 2.729,7 2.775,1 2.833,4 2.898,2 2.967,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.771,7 2.757,2 2.749,7 2.734,9 2.721,5 2.710,4 2.701,7 2.700,9 2.737,4 2.782,8 2.840,8 2.904,9 2.973,4
ES Baseline 20.674,5 20.815,7 20.952,7 21.333,3 21.706,8 22.095,0 22.517,0 22.975,1 23.531,6 24.126,8 24.767,1 25.443,7 26.142,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 20.674,5 20.815,7 20.952,7 21.323,0 21.675,1 22.033,7 22.427,9 22.860,2 23.391,2 23.962,3 24.579,5 25.234,1 25.911,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 20.674,5 20.815,7 20.952,7 21.328,3 21.694,0 22.075,7 22.496,0 22.956,8 23.517,5 24.120,2 24.770,4 25.458,6 26.169,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 20.674,5 20.815,7 20.952,7 21.330,6 21.699,1 22.081,4 22.499,2 22.954,5 23.508,5 24.102,0 24.741,2 25.417,2 26.115,2
FI Baseline 5.128,0 5.129,3 5.134,1 5.195,2 5.250,1 5.308,1 5.367,4 5.437,0 5.551,0 5.681,2 5.833,7 6.011,0 6.215,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.128,0 5.129,3 5.134,1 5.188,1 5.230,1 5.271,4 5.313,0 5.364,2 5.458,9 5.569,8 5.704,3 5.865,5 6.055,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.128,0 5.129,3 5.134,1 5.189,3 5.234,7 5.282,0 5.330,8 5.390,6 5.495,1 5.617,0 5.763,6 5.937,1 6.139,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.128,0 5.129,3 5.134,1 5.189,8 5.236,0 5.283,7 5.332,1 5.390,3 5.492,9 5.611,9 5.754,2 5.922,6 6.119,1
FR Baseline 37.276,6 37.240,2 37.232,2 37.668,2 38.156,9 38.688,5 39.298,1 39.976,4 40.750,8 41.596,7 42.490,6 43.420,4 44.368,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 37.276,6 37.240,2 37.232,2 37.646,1 38.090,7 38.566,8 39.127,0 39.761,9 40.497,2 41.308,4 42.171,7 43.075,1 43.997,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 37.276,6 37.240,2 37.232,2 37.664,9 38.153,8 38.702,6 39.341,0 40.058,9 40.878,8 41.776,9 42.726,9 43.714,3 44.716,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 37.276,6 37.240,2 37.232,2 37.665,6 38.149,9 38.680,5 39.292,9 39.977,4 40.759,4 41.614,8 42.519,2 43.460,6 44.418,5
GR Baseline 1.321,1 1.306,7 1.292,7 1.305,6 1.314,7 1.323,2 1.332,2 1.343,5 1.372,6 1.402,8 1.435,9 1.469,3 1.502,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.321,1 1.306,7 1.292,7 1.304,9 1.312,2 1.318,2 1.324,7 1.333,7 1.360,3 1.388,0 1.418,7 1.449,8 1.481,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.321,1 1.306,7 1.292,7 1.305,0 1.312,7 1.319,5 1.326,8 1.336,8 1.364,4 1.393,3 1.425,2 1.457,6 1.490,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.321,1 1.306,7 1.292,7 1.305,1 1.313,3 1.320,5 1.328,2 1.338,4 1.366,3 1.395,3 1.427,4 1.459,9 1.492,5
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 1.069,1 1.094,4 1.121,9 1.135,4 1.152,7 1.169,7 1.187,0 1.204,5 1.231,9 1.258,9 1.286,3 1.314,4 1.344,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.069,1 1.094,4 1.121,9 1.134,8 1.150,8 1.166,0 1.181,6 1.197,4 1.222,7 1.247,5 1.272,8 1.298,8 1.326,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.069,1 1.094,4 1.121,9 1.134,9 1.151,4 1.167,4 1.183,9 1.200,9 1.227,5 1.254,1 1.281,4 1.309,7 1.340,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.069,1 1.094,4 1.121,9 1.135,2 1.152,2 1.168,7 1.185,7 1.203,0 1.230,1 1.257,0 1.284,6 1.313,0 1.343,5
IE Baseline 1.920,4 1.946,2 1.971,4 2.022,4 2.074,8 2.130,9 2.192,1 2.259,1 2.343,6 2.434,9 2.531,0 2.631,7 2.736,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.920,4 1.946,2 1.971,4 2.020,0 2.067,7 2.117,9 2.173,5 2.235,4 2.314,8 2.401,3 2.493,1 2.590,0 2.691,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.920,4 1.946,2 1.971,4 2.020,6 2.070,1 2.123,5 2.182,9 2.248,8 2.332,6 2.423,6 2.520,2 2.621,9 2.727,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.920,4 1.946,2 1.971,4 2.021,0 2.070,9 2.124,3 2.183,1 2.247,8 2.330,3 2.419,9 2.514,8 2.614,7 2.718,8
IT Baseline 35.892,7 35.805,2 35.729,8 35.856,5 36.060,0 36.294,6 36.562,2 36.878,8 37.310,2 37.757,6 38.264,9 38.776,9 39.320,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 35.892,7 35.805,2 35.729,8 35.836,6 36.001,7 36.184,0 36.403,6 36.677,5 37.069,0 37.481,4 37.957,0 38.441,9 38.959,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 35.892,7 35.805,2 35.729,8 35.848,5 36.040,2 36.267,0 36.534,7 36.860,1 37.304,4 37.772,0 38.303,9 38.844,4 39.417,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 35.892,7 35.805,2 35.729,8 35.852,5 36.048,2 36.273,6 36.534,6 36.848,0 37.277,7 37.726,0 38.236,2 38.753,0 39.301,9
LU Baseline 487,7 494,0 500,8 510,0 521,5 533,5 546,1 559,3 574,1 589,2 604,4 619,5 635,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 487,7 494,0 500,8 509,2 518,9 528,9 539,7 551,4 565,0 579,3 594,1 609,1 624,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 487,7 494,0 500,8 509,6 520,4 532,0 544,5 557,8 572,9 588,4 604,1 619,9 635,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 487,7 494,0 500,8 509,7 520,5 531,9 543,9 556,7 571,2 586,2 601,4 616,8 632,5
NL Baseline 8.383,0 8.438,7 8.483,5 8.580,9 8.694,9 8.823,4 8.967,3 9.134,2 9.368,0 9.618,4 9.880,1 10.144,9 10.415,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.383,0 8.438,7 8.483,5 8.570,9 8.664,9 8.766,0 8.884,0 9.027,1 9.238,2 9.467,3 9.709,5 9.956,4 10.209,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.383,0 8.438,7 8.483,5 8.574,3 8.676,7 8.792,1 8.926,6 9.087,9 9.317,9 9.567,1 9.829,9 10.097,5 10.370,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.383,0 8.438,7 8.483,5 8.576,9 8.683,2 8.801,9 8.937,2 9.096,6 9.323,7 9.568,4 9.825,5 10.087,0 10.354,5
PL Baseline 5.867,8 6.038,1 6.221,7 6.359,3 6.509,2 6.657,6 6.810,2 6.966,9 7.173,0 7.388,8 7.606,4 7.832,1 8.066,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.867,8 6.038,1 6.221,7 6.355,7 6.499,3 6.638,7 6.783,0 6.932,0 7.129,5 7.336,6 7.545,8 7.763,3 7.988,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.867,8 6.038,1 6.221,7 6.357,1 6.503,9 6.649,1 6.799,9 6.956,4 7.162,6 7.380,0 7.601,3 7.832,8 8.073,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.867,8 6.038,1 6.221,7 6.358,3 6.506,8 6.653,6 6.805,4 6.962,0 7.168,1 7.384,7 7.604,1 7.832,8 8.070,4
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 3.086,0 3.008,1 2.928,9 2.928,0 2.925,0 2.932,8 2.953,8 2.985,9 3.032,9 3.086,1 3.145,3 3.207,4 3.269,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.086,0 3.008,1 2.928,9 2.925,7 2.917,1 2.917,0 2.930,6 2.956,3 2.997,4 3.045,6 3.100,6 3.159,0 3.217,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.086,0 3.008,1 2.928,9 2.926,5 2.920,2 2.924,3 2.942,7 2.973,6 3.020,0 3.073,7 3.133,9 3.197,4 3.260,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.086,0 3.008,1 2.928,9 2.927,3 2.922,7 2.928,6 2.948,3 2.979,7 3.026,3 3.079,5 3.139,1 3.201,7 3.264,1
SE Baseline 8.220,3 8.257,3 8.300,9 8.367,6 8.448,0 8.539,5 8.642,6 8.765,7 8.970,8 9.192,3 9.437,0 9.689,1 9.957,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.220,3 8.257,3 8.300,9 8.358,3 8.422,6 8.494,6 8.579,4 8.685,7 8.874,3 9.080,5 9.311,6 9.551,7 9.808,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.220,3 8.257,3 8.300,9 8.360,7 8.431,0 8.513,3 8.609,7 8.728,5 8.930,3 9.150,4 9.395,9 9.650,6 9.921,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.220,3 8.257,3 8.300,9 8.361,7 8.433,1 8.514,9 8.609,0 8.723,6 8.921,0 9.135,5 9.374,8 9.622,5 9.887,1
SI Baseline 398,5 403,7 409,5 418,1 427,7 438,3 450,2 463,6 482,0 502,2 523,8 546,2 569,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 398,5 403,7 409,5 417,8 426,7 436,4 447,5 460,2 477,8 497,3 518,2 540,0 562,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 398,5 403,7 409,5 418,0 427,3 437,7 449,6 463,2 481,8 502,3 524,2 547,1 570,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 398,5 403,7 409,5 418,1 427,5 438,0 449,8 463,2 481,6 501,8 523,4 545,9 568,9
UK Baseline 43.365,9 43.665,3 44.008,0 44.574,0 45.219,1 45.943,1 46.739,3 47.627,4 48.817,0 50.071,2 51.404,5 52.781,5 54.190,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 43.365,9 43.665,3 44.008,0 44.544,6 45.140,0 45.811,5 46.564,4 47.417,4 48.570,8 49.793,0 51.099,6 52.454,2 53.841,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 43.365,9 43.665,3 44.008,0 44.562,9 45.204,1 45.953,8 46.795,2 47.743,8 48.995,9 50.320,7 51.730,2 53.184,5 54.666,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 43.365,9 43.665,3 44.008,0 44.562,5 45.194,2 45.913,2 46.710,6 47.604,7 48.801,0 50.064,8 51.411,3 52.803,4 54.226,8
Fix tax costs medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 0 34.722 36.680 38.881 41.367 44.166 44.931 45.692 46.490 47.315 52.167 52.864 53.537 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 34.722 36.680 38.881 41.367 44.166 44.931 45.692 46.490 47.315 52.167 52.864 53.537 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 34.722 36.680 38.881 41.367 44.166 44.931 45.692 46.490 47.315 52.167 52.864 53.537 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 34.722 36.680 38.881 41.367 44.166 44.931 45.692 46.490 47.315 52.167 52.864 53.537
EU15 Baseline 0 29.069 30.779 32.707 34.896 37.371 37.976 38.579 39.213 39.870 42.353 42.919 43.489 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 29.069 30.779 32.707 34.896 37.371 37.976 38.579 39.213 39.870 42.353 42.919 43.489 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 29.069 30.779 32.707 34.896 37.371 37.976 38.579 39.213 39.870 42.353 42.919 43.489 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 29.069 30.779 32.707 34.896 37.371 37.976 38.579 39.213 39.870 42.353 42.919 43.489
EU10 Baseline 0 5.653 5.901 6.174 6.471 6.795 6.956 7.113 7.277 7.445 9.813 9.945 10.048 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 5.653 5.901 6.174 6.471 6.795 6.956 7.113 7.277 7.445 9.813 9.945 10.048 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 5.653 5.901 6.174 6.471 6.795 6.956 7.113 7.277 7.445 9.813 9.945 10.048 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 5.653 5.901 6.174 6.471 6.795 6.956 7.113 7.277 7.445 9.813 9.945 10.048
AT Baseline 0,0 1.212,2 1.260,0 1.309,3 1.364,0 1.422,2 1.439,6 1.456,6 1.473,7 1.491,1 1.509,2 1.530,7 1.554,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.212,2 1.260,0 1.309,3 1.364,0 1.422,2 1.439,6 1.456,6 1.473,7 1.491,1 1.509,2 1.530,7 1.554,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.212,2 1.260,0 1.309,3 1.364,0 1.422,2 1.439,6 1.456,6 1.473,7 1.491,1 1.509,2 1.530,7 1.554,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.212,2 1.260,0 1.309,3 1.364,0 1.422,2 1.439,6 1.456,6 1.473,7 1.491,1 1.509,2 1.530,7 1.554,5
BE Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.800,6 1.776,6 1.723,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.800,6 1.776,6 1.723,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.800,6 1.776,6 1.723,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.800,6 1.776,6 1.723,9
CZ Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 263,7 264,9 271,2 278,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 263,7 264,9 271,2 278,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 263,7 264,9 271,2 278,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 263,7 264,9 271,2 278,7
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 0,0 6.464,4 6.523,9 6.589,6 6.662,1 6.741,9 6.851,3 6.968,1 7.091,9 7.220,3 7.353,7 7.531,6 7.716,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 6.464,4 6.523,9 6.589,6 6.662,1 6.741,9 6.851,3 6.968,1 7.091,9 7.220,3 7.353,7 7.531,6 7.716,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.464,4 6.523,9 6.589,6 6.662,1 6.741,9 6.851,3 6.968,1 7.091,9 7.220,3 7.353,7 7.531,6 7.716,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.464,4 6.523,9 6.589,6 6.662,1 6.741,9 6.851,3 6.968,1 7.091,9 7.220,3 7.353,7 7.531,6 7.716,0
DK Baseline 0,0 2.018,1 2.222,6 2.443,3 2.684,7 2.947,4 2.978,8 3.003,6 3.030,7 3.058,7 3.088,2 3.102,0 3.122,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.018,1 2.222,6 2.443,3 2.684,7 2.947,4 2.978,8 3.003,6 3.030,7 3.058,7 3.088,2 3.102,0 3.122,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.018,1 2.222,6 2.443,3 2.684,7 2.947,4 2.978,8 3.003,6 3.030,7 3.058,7 3.088,2 3.102,0 3.122,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.018,1 2.222,6 2.443,3 2.684,7 2.947,4 2.978,8 3.003,6 3.030,7 3.058,7 3.088,2 3.102,0 3.122,5
ES Baseline 0,0 1.748,4 1.941,5 2.160,4 2.408,3 2.688,2 2.774,5 2.865,6 2.962,0 3.063,0 3.168,7 3.224,5 3.281,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.748,4 1.941,5 2.160,4 2.408,3 2.688,2 2.774,5 2.865,6 2.962,0 3.063,0 3.168,7 3.224,5 3.281,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.748,4 1.941,5 2.160,4 2.408,3 2.688,2 2.774,5 2.865,6 2.962,0 3.063,0 3.168,7 3.224,5 3.281,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.748,4 1.941,5 2.160,4 2.408,3 2.688,2 2.774,5 2.865,6 2.962,0 3.063,0 3.168,7 3.224,5 3.281,5
FI Baseline 0,0 1.165,9 1.436,9 1.780,0 2.214,3 2.754,4 2.819,5 2.864,4 2.911,2 2.959,3 3.009,0 3.031,9 3.056,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.165,9 1.436,9 1.780,0 2.214,3 2.754,4 2.819,5 2.864,4 2.911,2 2.959,3 3.009,0 3.031,9 3.056,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.165,9 1.436,9 1.780,0 2.214,3 2.754,4 2.819,5 2.864,4 2.911,2 2.959,3 3.009,0 3.031,9 3.056,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.165,9 1.436,9 1.780,0 2.214,3 2.754,4 2.819,5 2.864,4 2.911,2 2.959,3 3.009,0 3.031,9 3.056,7
FR Baseline 0,0 3.350,2 3.449,4 3.557,9 3.672,3 3.793,6 3.839,0 3.891,7 3.948,2 4.007,5 4.070,3 4.103,6 4.140,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 3.350,2 3.449,4 3.557,9 3.672,3 3.793,6 3.839,0 3.891,7 3.948,2 4.007,5 4.070,3 4.103,6 4.140,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.350,2 3.449,4 3.557,9 3.672,3 3.793,6 3.839,0 3.891,7 3.948,2 4.007,5 4.070,3 4.103,6 4.140,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.350,2 3.449,4 3.557,9 3.672,3 3.793,6 3.839,0 3.891,7 3.948,2 4.007,5 4.070,3 4.103,6 4.140,8
GR Baseline 0,0 255,8 275,5 298,4 324,3 354,2 363,5 373,7 384,2 395,2 406,5 404,5 402,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 255,8 275,5 298,4 324,3 354,2 363,5 373,7 384,2 395,2 406,5 404,5 402,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 255,8 275,5 298,4 324,3 354,2 363,5 373,7 384,2 395,2 406,5 404,5 402,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 255,8 275,5 298,4 324,3 354,2 363,5 373,7 384,2 395,2 406,5 404,5 402,9
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 217,8 221,6 226,3 231,0 236,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 217,8 221,6 226,3 231,0 236,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 217,8 221,6 226,3 231,0 236,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 217,8 221,6 226,3 231,0 236,4
IE Baseline 0,0 398,7 461,0 535,0 622,9 727,6 754,4 781,1 809,6 839,3 870,6 889,5 908,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 398,7 461,0 535,0 622,9 727,6 754,4 781,1 809,6 839,3 870,6 889,5 908,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 398,7 461,0 535,0 622,9 727,6 754,4 781,1 809,6 839,3 870,6 889,5 908,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 398,7 461,0 535,0 622,9 727,6 754,4 781,1 809,6 839,3 870,6 889,5 908,5
IT Baseline 0,0 3.757,0 4.168,9 4.628,1 5.146,9 5.728,7 5.729,6 5.736,4 5.744,1 5.752,5 5.761,3 5.809,4 5.860,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 3.757,0 4.168,9 4.628,1 5.146,9 5.728,7 5.729,6 5.736,4 5.744,1 5.752,5 5.761,3 5.809,4 5.860,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.757,0 4.168,9 4.628,1 5.146,9 5.728,7 5.729,6 5.736,4 5.744,1 5.752,5 5.761,3 5.809,4 5.860,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.757,0 4.168,9 4.628,1 5.146,9 5.728,7 5.729,6 5.736,4 5.744,1 5.752,5 5.761,3 5.809,4 5.860,1
LU Baseline 0,0 16,8 18,1 19,6 21,3 23,1 23,7 24,1 24,6 25,1 25,7 26,1 26,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 16,8 18,1 19,6 21,3 23,1 23,7 24,1 24,6 25,1 25,7 26,1 26,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 16,8 18,1 19,6 21,3 23,1 23,7 24,1 24,6 25,1 25,7 26,1 26,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 16,8 18,1 19,6 21,3 23,1 23,7 24,1 24,6 25,1 25,7 26,1 26,6
NL Baseline 0,0 3.939,3 4.106,2 4.290,0 4.489,3 4.705,4 4.814,7 4.921,4 5.032,9 5.147,2 5.264,4 5.389,3 5.518,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 3.939,3 4.106,2 4.290,0 4.489,3 4.705,4 4.814,7 4.921,4 5.032,9 5.147,2 5.264,4 5.389,3 5.518,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.939,3 4.106,2 4.290,0 4.489,3 4.705,4 4.814,7 4.921,4 5.032,9 5.147,2 5.264,4 5.389,3 5.518,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.939,3 4.106,2 4.290,0 4.489,3 4.705,4 4.814,7 4.921,4 5.032,9 5.147,2 5.264,4 5.389,3 5.518,0
PL Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.146,2 1.182,1 1.232,7 1.266,8 1.304,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.146,2 1.182,1 1.232,7 1.266,8 1.304,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.146,2 1.182,1 1.232,7 1.266,8 1.304,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.146,2 1.182,1 1.232,7 1.266,8 1.304,3
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 0,0 780,1 816,8 855,8 897,7 942,2 954,1 969,1 985,5 1.002,8 1.020,8 1.018,9 1.016,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 780,1 816,8 855,8 897,7 942,2 954,1 969,1 985,5 1.002,8 1.020,8 1.018,9 1.016,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 780,1 816,8 855,8 897,7 942,2 954,1 969,1 985,5 1.002,8 1.020,8 1.018,9 1.016,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 780,1 816,8 855,8 897,7 942,2 954,1 969,1 985,5 1.002,8 1.020,8 1.018,9 1.016,7
SE Baseline 0,0 440,7 457,0 474,3 492,6 512,1 525,4 537,5 549,8 562,3 575,2 584,5 594,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 440,7 457,0 474,3 492,6 512,1 525,4 537,5 549,8 562,3 575,2 584,5 594,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 440,7 457,0 474,3 492,6 512,1 525,4 537,5 549,8 562,3 575,2 584,5 594,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 440,7 457,0 474,3 492,6 512,1 525,4 537,5 549,8 562,3 575,2 584,5 594,8
SI Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 52,7 53,4 54,3 55,2 56,2 57,5 58,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 52,7 53,4 54,3 55,2 56,2 57,5 58,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 52,7 53,4 54,3 55,2 56,2 57,5 58,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 52,7 53,4 54,3 55,2 56,2 57,5 58,9
UK Baseline 0,0 3.521,0 3.640,9 3.765,6 3.895,5 4.029,9 4.107,6 4.185,5 4.264,8 4.346,0 4.429,2 4.496,4 4.565,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 3.521,0 3.640,9 3.765,6 3.895,5 4.029,9 4.107,6 4.185,5 4.264,8 4.346,0 4.429,2 4.496,4 4.565,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.521,0 3.640,9 3.765,6 3.895,5 4.029,9 4.107,6 4.185,5 4.264,8 4.346,0 4.429,2 4.496,4 4.565,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.521,0 3.640,9 3.765,6 3.895,5 4.029,9 4.107,6 4.185,5 4.264,8 4.346,0 4.429,2 4.496,4 4.565,6
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 54.286 55.264 56.309 57.392 58.540 59.726 60.947 62.203 63.489 64.804 66.142 67.498 68.868 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 54.286 55.264 56.309 57.423 58.624 59.882 61.171 62.490 63.832 65.194 66.572 67.959 69.353 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 54.286 55.264 56.309 57.419 58.612 59.857 61.132 62.436 63.764 65.113 66.477 67.852 69.236 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 54.286 55.264 56.309 57.413 58.592 59.817 61.076 62.367 63.683 65.024 66.383 67.755 69.135
EU15 Baseline 44.118 44.875 45.688 46.540 47.450 48.395 49.375 50.390 51.436 52.509 53.603 54.709 55.824 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 44.118 44.875 45.688 46.563 47.512 48.513 49.548 50.613 51.705 52.817 53.943 55.074 56.208 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 44.118 44.875 45.688 46.562 47.507 48.504 49.532 50.589 51.672 52.776 53.894 55.019 56.147 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 44.118 44.875 45.688 46.555 47.488 48.465 49.475 50.518 51.589 52.684 53.794 54.912 56.035
EU10 Baseline 10.168 10.389 10.621 10.851 11.090 11.331 11.572 11.813 12.053 12.295 12.540 12.789 13.044 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 10.168 10.389 10.621 10.860 11.112 11.368 11.623 11.876 12.127 12.377 12.629 12.885 13.145 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 10.168 10.389 10.621 10.858 11.105 11.353 11.601 11.847 12.091 12.336 12.583 12.834 13.089 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 10.168 10.389 10.621 10.857 11.104 11.352 11.601 11.848 12.094 12.341 12.590 12.842 13.100
AT Baseline 1.581,3 1.611,2 1.644,2 1.677,2 1.712,8 1.750,4 1.789,6 1.830,2 1.871,7 1.913,9 1.956,9 2.000,7 2.045,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.581,3 1.611,2 1.644,2 1.676,9 1.714,5 1.754,2 1.795,4 1.837,7 1.880,8 1.924,4 1.968,5 2.013,3 2.059,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.581,3 1.611,2 1.644,2 1.676,4 1.712,7 1.750,4 1.789,6 1.829,8 1.870,9 1.912,6 1.954,9 1.998,1 2.042,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.581,3 1.611,2 1.644,2 1.676,5 1.713,2 1.751,9 1.792,2 1.833,7 1.876,0 1.918,9 1.962,5 2.006,8 2.052,2
BE Baseline 1.679,8 1.713,3 1.748,3 1.777,8 1.810,4 1.844,0 1.878,5 1.913,8 1.949,8 1.986,4 2.023,5 2.061,2 2.099,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.679,8 1.713,3 1.748,3 1.778,0 1.811,9 1.848,1 1.885,1 1.922,5 1.960,1 1.997,8 2.035,6 2.073,6 2.112,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.679,8 1.713,3 1.748,3 1.778,0 1.812,1 1.848,4 1.885,4 1.922,9 1.960,7 1.998,6 2.036,8 2.075,3 2.114,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.679,8 1.713,3 1.748,3 1.777,5 1.810,4 1.845,0 1.880,4 1.916,4 1.952,8 1.989,5 2.026,7 2.064,2 2.102,1
CZ Baseline 287,0 296,2 306,3 312,7 319,6 326,8 334,3 342,2 350,5 359,1 368,1 377,6 387,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 287,0 296,2 306,3 312,9 319,9 327,4 335,3 343,6 352,2 361,1 370,5 380,4 391,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 287,0 296,2 306,3 312,9 319,9 327,5 335,4 343,7 352,2 361,2 370,7 380,7 391,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 287,0 296,2 306,3 312,8 319,7 327,1 334,8 342,9 351,4 360,2 369,4 379,2 389,8
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 7.906,8 8.100,8 8.297,9 8.481,8 8.673,5 8.867,0 9.062,4 9.259,5 9.458,4 9.660,1 9.864,6 10.072,2 10.283,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.906,8 8.100,8 8.297,9 8.488,2 8.686,8 8.890,4 9.094,8 9.299,7 9.505,3 9.712,5 9.921,5 10.132,4 10.345,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.906,8 8.100,8 8.297,9 8.488,9 8.689,2 8.895,7 9.102,4 9.309,7 9.517,6 9.727,2 9.938,4 10.151,7 10.367,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.906,8 8.100,8 8.297,9 8.487,3 8.683,9 8.884,4 9.085,9 9.288,5 9.492,0 9.697,4 9.904,9 10.114,6 10.326,9
DK Baseline 3.154,3 3.199,1 3.260,6 3.308,8 3.360,7 3.418,5 3.482,6 3.552,5 3.625,9 3.699,4 3.769,5 3.833,5 3.890,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.154,3 3.199,1 3.260,6 3.310,6 3.366,0 3.429,2 3.499,3 3.575,1 3.653,9 3.731,9 3.805,1 3.870,8 3.928,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.154,3 3.199,1 3.260,6 3.310,3 3.364,8 3.426,4 3.494,4 3.567,8 3.644,0 3.719,4 3.790,2 3.854,1 3.910,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.154,3 3.199,1 3.260,6 3.310,0 3.363,7 3.424,3 3.491,3 3.564,0 3.639,8 3.715,1 3.786,2 3.850,5 3.907,7
ES Baseline 3.342,3 3.407,0 3.476,2 3.558,2 3.644,9 3.735,4 3.829,8 3.928,2 4.030,7 4.137,3 4.248,0 4.362,7 4.481,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.342,3 3.407,0 3.476,2 3.558,8 3.647,1 3.739,6 3.836,0 3.936,4 4.040,8 4.149,2 4.261,6 4.378,0 4.498,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.342,3 3.407,0 3.476,2 3.558,3 3.645,7 3.736,7 3.831,4 3.930,0 4.032,4 4.138,7 4.249,0 4.363,1 4.481,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.342,3 3.407,0 3.476,2 3.558,3 3.645,8 3.737,0 3.832,2 3.931,5 4.034,7 4.142,1 4.253,6 4.369,1 4.488,4
FI Baseline 3.087,4 3.125,5 3.172,3 3.243,7 3.323,9 3.410,9 3.506,4 3.611,8 3.727,5 3.852,0 3.981,1 4.109,4 4.231,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.087,4 3.125,5 3.172,3 3.245,3 3.328,6 3.420,6 3.522,2 3.634,6 3.757,8 3.889,7 4.025,3 4.158,8 4.285,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.087,4 3.125,5 3.172,3 3.245,2 3.328,2 3.419,3 3.519,2 3.629,0 3.748,7 3.876,3 4.007,3 4.136,5 4.259,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.087,4 3.125,5 3.172,3 3.245,0 3.327,5 3.417,8 3.517,3 3.627,1 3.747,4 3.876,1 4.008,9 4.140,0 4.264,4
FR Baseline 4.184,6 4.233,3 4.286,8 4.357,5 4.438,7 4.524,9 4.615,9 4.711,2 4.810,6 4.913,7 5.020,1 5.129,6 5.242,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.184,6 4.233,3 4.286,8 4.358,0 4.441,2 4.534,4 4.631,7 4.732,6 4.836,6 4.943,4 5.052,8 5.164,5 5.278,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.184,6 4.233,3 4.286,8 4.360,5 4.449,1 4.550,3 4.655,3 4.764,0 4.875,8 4.990,3 5.107,2 5.226,1 5.347,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.184,6 4.233,3 4.286,8 4.357,9 4.440,4 4.531,2 4.626,1 4.724,8 4.827,0 4.932,1 5.040,0 5.150,4 5.263,1
GR Baseline 401,8 401,3 401,3 406,7 412,6 418,7 425,0 431,6 438,5 445,6 453,1 460,9 469,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 401,8 401,3 401,3 406,7 412,7 419,0 425,5 432,3 439,3 446,6 454,2 462,0 470,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 401,8 401,3 401,3 406,7 412,7 419,1 425,7 432,6 439,7 447,1 454,8 462,8 471,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 401,8 401,3 401,3 406,7 412,6 418,9 425,3 432,0 438,9 446,1 453,6 461,5 469,6
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 242,6 249,4 257,1 261,7 266,4 271,2 276,4 281,8 287,7 294,1 301,0 308,5 316,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 242,6 249,4 257,1 261,8 266,8 272,0 277,4 283,3 289,6 296,4 303,8 311,8 320,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 242,6 249,4 257,1 261,8 266,8 272,0 277,6 283,5 289,9 296,9 304,5 312,7 321,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 242,6 249,4 257,1 261,8 266,6 271,7 277,1 282,8 289,0 295,7 302,9 310,8 319,3
IE Baseline 928,6 949,8 972,1 1.004,5 1.039,2 1.075,4 1.113,3 1.152,9 1.194,1 1.237,0 1.281,5 1.327,7 1.375,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 928,6 949,8 972,1 1.005,1 1.041,1 1.078,5 1.117,5 1.158,1 1.200,2 1.243,9 1.289,1 1.335,8 1.384,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 928,6 949,8 972,1 1.004,8 1.040,0 1.076,2 1.114,0 1.153,4 1.194,2 1.236,6 1.280,6 1.326,1 1.373,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 928,6 949,8 972,1 1.004,9 1.040,5 1.077,5 1.116,1 1.156,3 1.198,2 1.241,6 1.286,5 1.333,1 1.381,2
IT Baseline 5.915,4 5.974,0 6.036,1 6.082,2 6.133,2 6.187,6 6.245,4 6.306,7 6.371,1 6.438,4 6.508,2 6.580,4 6.654,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.915,4 5.974,0 6.036,1 6.083,4 6.138,2 6.199,1 6.263,2 6.330,3 6.399,9 6.471,4 6.544,9 6.619,9 6.696,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.915,4 5.974,0 6.036,1 6.084,0 6.139,9 6.202,7 6.268,5 6.337,3 6.408,4 6.481,5 6.556,6 6.633,3 6.711,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.915,4 5.974,0 6.036,1 6.082,7 6.135,9 6.194,3 6.255,7 6.320,3 6.387,6 6.457,2 6.528,9 6.602,4 6.677,5
LU Baseline 27,1 27,7 28,2 28,7 29,2 29,7 30,2 30,7 31,2 31,8 32,3 32,9 33,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 27,1 27,7 28,2 28,7 29,2 29,7 30,3 30,8 31,4 31,9 32,5 33,0 33,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 27,1 27,7 28,2 28,7 29,2 29,7 30,2 30,7 31,2 31,7 32,2 32,8 33,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 27,1 27,7 28,2 28,7 29,2 29,7 30,2 30,8 31,3 31,8 32,4 32,9 33,5
NL Baseline 5.649,6 5.785,2 5.924,9 6.063,2 6.204,3 6.345,5 6.485,6 6.624,4 6.762,5 6.901,2 7.042,1 7.186,5 7.335,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.649,6 5.785,2 5.924,9 6.068,9 6.218,2 6.367,6 6.515,3 6.660,8 6.804,4 6.948,1 7.093,4 7.241,8 7.394,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.649,6 5.785,2 5.924,9 6.067,0 6.212,2 6.355,9 6.498,1 6.638,6 6.777,9 6.917,6 7.059,2 7.203,9 7.352,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.649,6 5.785,2 5.924,9 6.067,3 6.213,2 6.358,8 6.503,1 6.645,9 6.787,4 6.929,4 7.073,3 7.220,3 7.371,4
PL Baseline 1.344,4 1.387,1 1.432,4 1.467,8 1.504,0 1.541,4 1.580,4 1.621,8 1.666,1 1.713,7 1.764,7 1.819,3 1.877,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.344,4 1.387,1 1.432,4 1.468,3 1.505,3 1.543,8 1.584,1 1.626,6 1.672,3 1.721,2 1.773,6 1.829,7 1.889,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.344,4 1.387,1 1.432,4 1.468,3 1.505,3 1.543,9 1.584,1 1.626,8 1.672,5 1.721,8 1.774,7 1.831,5 1.892,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.344,4 1.387,1 1.432,4 1.468,0 1.504,7 1.542,7 1.582,3 1.624,3 1.669,4 1.717,9 1.769,9 1.825,6 1.885,2
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 1.015,2 1.014,8 1.015,4 1.032,7 1.052,5 1.073,9 1.096,7 1.120,6 1.144,8 1.169,0 1.192,7 1.215,9 1.238,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.015,2 1.014,8 1.015,4 1.032,8 1.053,0 1.074,7 1.097,9 1.122,0 1.146,5 1.170,8 1.194,7 1.218,0 1.241,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.015,2 1.014,8 1.015,4 1.032,6 1.052,4 1.073,7 1.096,6 1.120,4 1.144,7 1.168,8 1.192,4 1.215,5 1.238,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.015,2 1.014,8 1.015,4 1.032,7 1.052,4 1.073,7 1.096,5 1.120,3 1.144,5 1.168,6 1.192,3 1.215,5 1.238,4
SE Baseline 606,3 619,6 634,9 650,3 666,7 683,4 700,2 716,8 733,1 748,8 763,9 778,3 792,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 606,3 619,6 634,9 651,8 669,4 687,3 705,3 723,1 740,4 757,0 772,9 787,9 802,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 606,3 619,6 634,9 651,6 668,8 686,0 703,2 720,2 736,6 752,3 767,3 781,6 795,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 606,3 619,6 634,9 651,6 668,9 686,4 703,9 721,2 738,1 754,4 769,9 784,7 798,9
SI Baseline 60,5 62,2 64,1 66,3 68,6 71,1 73,7 76,4 79,2 82,0 84,8 87,6 90,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 60,5 62,2 64,1 66,3 68,7 71,3 74,0 76,8 79,6 82,5 85,4 88,4 91,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 60,5 62,2 64,1 66,3 68,7 71,2 73,9 76,6 79,4 82,3 85,2 88,1 91,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 60,5 62,2 64,1 66,3 68,7 71,2 73,9 76,7 79,5 82,4 85,2 88,2 91,2
UK Baseline 4.637,8 4.712,1 4.788,6 4.867,0 4.947,4 5.029,5 5.113,2 5.198,7 5.285,8 5.374,6 5.465,0 5.557,1 5.650,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.637,8 4.712,1 4.788,6 4.869,6 4.954,3 5.040,8 5.128,4 5.217,3 5.307,3 5.398,6 5.491,0 5.584,7 5.679,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.637,8 4.712,1 4.788,6 4.868,4 4.950,5 5.033,4 5.117,5 5.202,8 5.289,5 5.377,5 5.466,8 5.557,7 5.650,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.637,8 4.712,1 4.788,6 4.868,2 4.950,4 5.034,0 5.119,1 5.205,7 5.293,7 5.383,1 5.473,9 5.566,2 5.659,8
variable tax costs medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 0 62.889 66.075 70.004 74.493 77.462 76.348 77.478 77.339 77.470 82.006 81.637 81.155 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 62.889 66.075 70.004 74.493 77.462 76.348 77.478 77.339 77.470 82.006 81.637 81.155 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 62.889 66.075 70.004 74.493 77.462 76.348 77.478 77.339 77.470 82.006 81.637 81.155 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 62.889 66.075 70.004 74.493 77.462 76.348 77.478 77.339 77.470 82.006 81.637 81.155
EU15 Baseline 0 57.081 59.909 63.512 67.817 70.590 69.629 70.732 70.563 70.666 72.985 72.657 72.226 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 57.081 59.909 63.512 67.817 70.590 69.629 70.732 70.563 70.666 72.985 72.657 72.226 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 57.081 59.909 63.512 67.817 70.590 69.629 70.732 70.563 70.666 72.985 72.657 72.226 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 57.081 59.909 63.512 67.817 70.590 69.629 70.732 70.563 70.666 72.985 72.657 72.226
EU10 Baseline 0 5.808 6.167 6.492 6.676 6.872 6.719 6.746 6.776 6.804 9.021 8.981 8.929 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 5.808 6.167 6.492 6.676 6.872 6.719 6.746 6.776 6.804 9.021 8.981 8.929 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 5.808 6.167 6.492 6.676 6.872 6.719 6.746 6.776 6.804 9.021 8.981 8.929 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 5.808 6.167 6.492 6.676 6.872 6.719 6.746 6.776 6.804 9.021 8.981 8.929
AT Baseline 0,0 1.081,5 1.090,3 1.103,6 1.119,9 1.123,2 1.086,9 1.059,6 1.043,1 1.035,7 1.086,7 1.079,6 1.067,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.081,5 1.090,3 1.103,6 1.119,9 1.123,2 1.086,9 1.059,6 1.043,1 1.035,7 1.086,7 1.079,6 1.067,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.081,5 1.090,3 1.103,6 1.119,9 1.123,2 1.086,9 1.059,6 1.043,1 1.035,7 1.086,7 1.079,6 1.067,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.081,5 1.090,3 1.103,6 1.119,9 1.123,2 1.086,9 1.059,6 1.043,1 1.035,7 1.086,7 1.079,6 1.067,9
BE Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.789,7 1.783,6 1.773,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.789,7 1.783,6 1.773,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.789,7 1.783,6 1.773,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.789,7 1.783,6 1.773,9
CZ Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 341,3 336,2 338,3 341,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 341,3 336,2 338,3 341,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 341,3 336,2 338,3 341,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 341,3 336,2 338,3 341,1
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 0,0 18.030,0 17.752,3 17.644,2 18.386,2 19.538,5 20.311,3 21.121,9 21.081,0 20.998,7 20.905,0 20.831,4 20.702,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 18.030,0 17.752,3 17.644,2 18.386,2 19.538,5 20.311,3 21.121,9 21.081,0 20.998,7 20.905,0 20.831,4 20.702,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 18.030,0 17.752,3 17.644,2 18.386,2 19.538,5 20.311,3 21.121,9 21.081,0 20.998,7 20.905,0 20.831,4 20.702,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 18.030,0 17.752,3 17.644,2 18.386,2 19.538,5 20.311,3 21.121,9 21.081,0 20.998,7 20.905,0 20.831,4 20.702,6
DK Baseline 0,0 729,0 804,9 889,0 1.072,3 1.176,0 1.184,2 1.200,1 1.205,5 1.209,4 1.212,0 1.200,7 1.191,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 729,0 804,9 889,0 1.072,3 1.176,0 1.184,2 1.200,1 1.205,5 1.209,4 1.212,0 1.200,7 1.191,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 729,0 804,9 889,0 1.072,3 1.176,0 1.184,2 1.200,1 1.205,5 1.209,4 1.212,0 1.200,7 1.191,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 729,0 804,9 889,0 1.072,3 1.176,0 1.184,2 1.200,1 1.205,5 1.209,4 1.212,0 1.200,7 1.191,1
ES Baseline 0,0 2.591,2 2.813,9 3.114,6 3.433,3 3.664,2 3.641,0 3.875,0 3.857,6 3.950,6 4.317,1 4.327,9 4.340,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.591,2 2.813,9 3.114,6 3.433,3 3.664,2 3.641,0 3.875,0 3.857,6 3.950,6 4.317,1 4.327,9 4.340,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.591,2 2.813,9 3.114,6 3.433,3 3.664,2 3.641,0 3.875,0 3.857,6 3.950,6 4.317,1 4.327,9 4.340,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.591,2 2.813,9 3.114,6 3.433,3 3.664,2 3.641,0 3.875,0 3.857,6 3.950,6 4.317,1 4.327,9 4.340,9
FI Baseline 0,0 710,5 871,2 1.133,5 1.378,2 1.640,0 1.602,8 1.586,1 1.602,1 1.616,9 1.630,0 1.624,3 1.621,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 710,5 871,2 1.133,5 1.378,2 1.640,0 1.602,8 1.586,1 1.602,1 1.616,9 1.630,0 1.624,3 1.621,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 710,5 871,2 1.133,5 1.378,2 1.640,0 1.602,8 1.586,1 1.602,1 1.616,9 1.630,0 1.624,3 1.621,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 710,5 871,2 1.133,5 1.378,2 1.640,0 1.602,8 1.586,1 1.602,1 1.616,9 1.630,0 1.624,3 1.621,1
FR Baseline 0,0 9.942,5 10.131,8 10.453,1 10.688,1 10.602,8 10.150,7 10.100,7 10.045,4 10.010,2 9.993,5 9.838,5 9.689,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 9.942,5 10.131,8 10.453,1 10.688,1 10.602,8 10.150,7 10.100,7 10.045,4 10.010,2 9.993,5 9.838,5 9.689,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 9.942,5 10.131,8 10.453,1 10.688,1 10.602,8 10.150,7 10.100,7 10.045,4 10.010,2 9.993,5 9.838,5 9.689,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 9.942,5 10.131,8 10.453,1 10.688,1 10.602,8 10.150,7 10.100,7 10.045,4 10.010,2 9.993,5 9.838,5 9.689,3
GR Baseline 0,0 241,9 253,9 267,4 287,3 302,7 306,7 305,1 304,3 313,3 333,7 330,2 327,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 241,9 253,9 267,4 287,3 302,7 306,7 305,1 304,3 313,3 333,7 330,2 327,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 241,9 253,9 267,4 287,3 302,7 306,7 305,1 304,3 313,3 333,7 330,2 327,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 241,9 253,9 267,4 287,3 302,7 306,7 305,1 304,3 313,3 333,7 330,2 327,4
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 264,8 260,4 263,8 267,1 270,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 264,8 260,4 263,8 267,1 270,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 264,8 260,4 263,8 267,1 270,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 264,8 260,4 263,8 267,1 270,6
IE Baseline 0,0 176,4 221,4 256,2 291,5 318,8 285,6 327,0 337,3 346,9 356,3 358,6 360,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 176,4 221,4 256,2 291,5 318,8 285,6 327,0 337,3 346,9 356,3 358,6 360,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 176,4 221,4 256,2 291,5 318,8 285,6 327,0 337,3 346,9 356,3 358,6 360,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 176,4 221,4 256,2 291,5 318,8 285,6 327,0 337,3 346,9 356,3 358,6 360,7
IT Baseline 0,0 6.435,7 7.047,9 7.686,9 8.655,8 8.984,3 8.764,3 8.855,9 8.608,6 8.581,3 8.565,8 8.571,0 8.547,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 6.435,7 7.047,9 7.686,9 8.655,8 8.984,3 8.764,3 8.855,9 8.608,6 8.581,3 8.565,8 8.571,0 8.547,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.435,7 7.047,9 7.686,9 8.655,8 8.984,3 8.764,3 8.855,9 8.608,6 8.581,3 8.565,8 8.571,0 8.547,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.435,7 7.047,9 7.686,9 8.655,8 8.984,3 8.764,3 8.855,9 8.608,6 8.581,3 8.565,8 8.571,0 8.547,9
LU Baseline 0,0 68,2 71,0 74,1 80,3 81,7 78,5 76,0 75,3 74,5 80,5 79,4 78,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 68,2 71,0 74,1 80,3 81,7 78,5 76,0 75,3 74,5 80,5 79,4 78,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 68,2 71,0 74,1 80,3 81,7 78,5 76,0 75,3 74,5 80,5 79,4 78,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 68,2 71,0 74,1 80,3 81,7 78,5 76,0 75,3 74,5 80,5 79,4 78,2
NL Baseline 0,0 2.214,2 2.384,3 2.532,2 2.622,0 2.697,0 2.598,4 2.585,8 2.595,2 2.597,1 2.595,7 2.594,0 2.584,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.214,2 2.384,3 2.532,2 2.622,0 2.697,0 2.598,4 2.585,8 2.595,2 2.597,1 2.595,7 2.594,0 2.584,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.214,2 2.384,3 2.532,2 2.622,0 2.697,0 2.598,4 2.585,8 2.595,2 2.597,1 2.595,7 2.594,0 2.584,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.214,2 2.384,3 2.532,2 2.622,0 2.697,0 2.598,4 2.585,8 2.595,2 2.597,1 2.595,7 2.594,0 2.584,4
PL Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.051,6 1.005,6 1.092,5 1.109,0 1.127,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.051,6 1.005,6 1.092,5 1.109,0 1.127,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.051,6 1.005,6 1.092,5 1.109,0 1.127,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.051,6 1.005,6 1.092,5 1.109,0 1.127,1
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 0,0 981,5 971,3 1.019,2 934,8 714,2 661,7 909,9 905,9 898,6 967,7 942,2 917,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 981,5 971,3 1.019,2 934,8 714,2 661,7 909,9 905,9 898,6 967,7 942,2 917,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 981,5 971,3 1.019,2 934,8 714,2 661,7 909,9 905,9 898,6 967,7 942,2 917,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 981,5 971,3 1.019,2 934,8 714,2 661,7 909,9 905,9 898,6 967,7 942,2 917,9
SE Baseline 0,0 2.306,8 2.418,5 2.523,7 2.565,1 2.635,1 2.604,3 2.640,5 2.656,8 2.669,1 2.678,1 2.656,3 2.636,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.306,8 2.418,5 2.523,7 2.565,1 2.635,1 2.604,3 2.640,5 2.656,8 2.669,1 2.678,1 2.656,3 2.636,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.306,8 2.418,5 2.523,7 2.565,1 2.635,1 2.604,3 2.640,5 2.656,8 2.669,1 2.678,1 2.656,3 2.636,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.306,8 2.418,5 2.523,7 2.565,1 2.635,1 2.604,3 2.640,5 2.656,8 2.669,1 2.678,1 2.656,3 2.636,1
SI Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 49,8 50,6 51,4 52,1 52,8 53,8 54,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 49,8 50,6 51,4 52,1 52,8 53,8 54,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 49,8 50,6 51,4 52,1 52,8 53,8 54,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 49,8 50,6 51,4 52,1 52,8 53,8 54,5
UK Baseline 0,0 11.571,4 13.076,0 14.814,7 16.301,8 17.111,4 16.352,8 16.088,8 16.244,6 16.363,7 16.473,3 16.439,0 16.386,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 11.571,4 13.076,0 14.814,7 16.301,8 17.111,4 16.352,8 16.088,8 16.244,6 16.363,7 16.473,3 16.439,0 16.386,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 11.571,4 13.076,0 14.814,7 16.301,8 17.111,4 16.352,8 16.088,8 16.244,6 16.363,7 16.473,3 16.439,0 16.386,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 11.571,4 13.076,0 14.814,7 16.301,8 17.111,4 16.352,8 16.088,8 16.244,6 16.363,7 16.473,3 16.439,0 16.386,9
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 80.460 79.634 78.689 78.033 77.406 76.923 76.561 76.330 76.293 76.385 76.588 76.906 77.331 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 80.460 79.634 78.689 77.909 76.928 75.771 74.790 74.015 73.514 73.218 73.098 73.148 73.357 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 80.460 79.634 78.689 77.891 76.873 75.669 74.643 73.818 73.265 72.915 72.740 72.736 72.894 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 80.460 79.634 78.689 78.050 77.372 76.694 76.186 75.861 75.783 75.883 76.134 76.533 77.068
EU15 Baseline 71.607 70.874 70.042 69.473 68.953 68.552 68.258 68.078 68.064 68.157 68.350 68.642 69.026 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 71.607 70.874 70.042 69.359 68.517 67.511 66.660 65.986 65.549 65.283 65.175 65.216 65.397 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 71.607 70.874 70.042 69.343 68.468 67.420 66.528 65.811 65.327 65.013 64.856 64.850 64.985 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 71.607 70.874 70.042 69.484 68.908 68.325 67.890 67.614 67.551 67.637 67.861 68.212 68.684
EU10 Baseline 8.853 8.760 8.647 8.560 8.453 8.371 8.303 8.252 8.228 8.228 8.238 8.263 8.304 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.853 8.760 8.647 8.550 8.411 8.260 8.130 8.029 7.965 7.935 7.923 7.931 7.960 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.853 8.760 8.647 8.548 8.405 8.249 8.115 8.007 7.938 7.902 7.884 7.887 7.909 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.853 8.760 8.647 8.567 8.463 8.369 8.296 8.247 8.231 8.245 8.274 8.320 8.385
AT Baseline 1.052,0 1.032,6 1.010,3 989,3 970,1 954,0 941,3 932,5 927,4 925,1 925,2 927,2 930,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.052,0 1.032,6 1.010,3 986,6 963,8 939,6 920,0 905,3 895,4 889,1 885,8 884,7 885,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.052,0 1.032,6 1.010,3 986,6 963,8 939,9 920,5 906,0 896,2 889,9 886,5 885,4 886,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.052,0 1.032,6 1.010,3 988,8 970,5 953,4 940,5 932,2 928,1 927,2 929,0 932,8 938,5
BE Baseline 1.759,4 1.741,4 1.720,3 1.706,8 1.678,9 1.665,9 1.657,2 1.652,4 1.651,0 1.657,7 1.661,3 1.666,9 1.674,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.759,4 1.741,4 1.720,3 1.700,6 1.665,0 1.635,7 1.612,0 1.594,1 1.582,6 1.582,5 1.582,0 1.584,7 1.590,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.759,4 1.741,4 1.720,3 1.701,2 1.666,5 1.639,0 1.617,0 1.600,7 1.590,5 1.591,1 1.591,0 1.594,1 1.600,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.759,4 1.741,4 1.720,3 1.705,3 1.678,8 1.664,1 1.654,6 1.650,2 1.650,6 1.660,7 1.668,6 1.679,0 1.691,8
CZ Baseline 344,2 347,4 350,4 351,2 353,4 356,0 359,1 363,0 368,2 374,3 381,3 388,7 396,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 344,2 347,4 350,4 350,2 350,5 350,1 350,1 351,0 353,2 356,4 360,5 365,0 370,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 344,2 347,4 350,4 350,2 350,5 350,1 350,1 350,9 353,1 356,3 360,5 365,1 370,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 344,2 347,4 350,4 350,7 352,0 353,2 354,8 357,3 361,1 365,9 371,5 377,8 384,7
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 20.512,3 20.293,4 20.051,7 19.848,0 19.672,8 19.531,7 19.419,9 19.340,9 19.312,8 19.311,4 19.336,3 19.384,9 19.455,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 20.512,3 20.293,4 20.051,7 19.829,5 19.576,1 19.274,6 19.018,7 18.814,5 18.680,8 18.590,8 18.541,4 18.528,8 18.550,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 20.512,3 20.293,4 20.051,7 19.821,0 19.551,3 19.227,6 18.950,7 18.725,1 18.569,4 18.457,4 18.386,3 18.352,4 18.353,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 20.512,3 20.293,4 20.051,7 19.864,9 19.686,2 19.502,5 19.361,2 19.265,9 19.234,3 19.240,7 19.282,6 19.356,4 19.460,0
DK Baseline 1.178,2 1.163,5 1.147,3 1.128,0 1.105,9 1.081,7 1.055,6 1.029,1 1.005,7 985,3 969,5 958,3 951,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.178,2 1.163,5 1.147,3 1.128,7 1.104,3 1.073,8 1.042,6 1.012,5 987,0 965,9 950,2 939,4 932,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.178,2 1.163,5 1.147,3 1.128,3 1.103,1 1.071,3 1.038,7 1.007,1 980,2 957,7 940,8 929,1 921,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.178,2 1.163,5 1.147,3 1.130,5 1.109,7 1.085,3 1.060,4 1.036,4 1.016,7 1.000,7 989,2 982,0 978,4
ES Baseline 4.344,5 4.339,1 4.324,1 4.344,5 4.362,4 4.382,7 4.405,3 4.431,1 4.463,9 4.499,4 4.538,6 4.581,2 4.626,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.344,5 4.339,1 4.324,1 4.335,6 4.334,2 4.321,9 4.312,8 4.308,2 4.312,8 4.322,3 4.337,4 4.358,4 4.384,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.344,5 4.339,1 4.324,1 4.335,7 4.334,6 4.323,1 4.314,8 4.310,8 4.315,6 4.325,0 4.340,1 4.360,7 4.386,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.344,5 4.339,1 4.324,1 4.340,9 4.351,7 4.359,3 4.370,2 4.385,4 4.409,2 4.437,4 4.471,0 4.509,7 4.552,7
FI Baseline 1.614,9 1.606,0 1.593,4 1.593,2 1.583,7 1.569,6 1.549,6 1.523,9 1.495,1 1.464,1 1.435,2 1.412,8 1.399,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.614,9 1.606,0 1.593,4 1.593,0 1.580,3 1.557,7 1.529,8 1.497,8 1.465,2 1.433,2 1.405,8 1.386,4 1.376,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.614,9 1.606,0 1.593,4 1.592,8 1.579,4 1.555,5 1.526,0 1.492,0 1.457,1 1.422,5 1.392,6 1.370,9 1.359,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.614,9 1.606,0 1.593,4 1.594,5 1.586,1 1.571,0 1.551,6 1.528,7 1.505,6 1.483,1 1.464,6 1.452,9 1.449,5
FR Baseline 9.526,0 9.353,2 9.173,5 9.075,5 8.988,1 8.921,4 8.875,3 8.848,3 8.841,0 8.849,1 8.870,3 8.903,4 8.945,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.526,0 9.353,2 9.173,5 9.049,6 8.912,5 8.760,4 8.635,1 8.537,1 8.467,7 8.421,9 8.396,9 8.391,0 8.401,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.526,0 9.353,2 9.173,5 9.050,6 8.915,4 8.767,6 8.646,3 8.551,7 8.484,9 8.441,3 8.418,2 8.413,8 8.425,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.526,0 9.353,2 9.173,5 9.067,1 8.967,5 8.874,2 8.806,0 8.761,9 8.742,7 8.743,7 8.762,3 8.796,7 8.843,8
GR Baseline 324,4 321,2 317,6 320,3 321,9 323,5 325,0 326,8 329,6 332,3 335,3 338,2 341,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 324,4 321,2 317,6 320,3 321,4 322,0 322,7 323,6 325,7 327,8 330,2 332,7 335,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 324,4 321,2 317,6 320,2 321,4 322,1 322,7 323,7 325,8 328,0 330,4 332,9 335,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 324,4 321,2 317,6 320,4 322,0 323,4 324,7 326,4 329,2 332,0 335,1 338,3 341,4
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 274,2 277,9 281,5 282,3 284,0 285,7 287,5 289,4 291,8 294,1 296,4 298,7 300,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 274,2 277,9 281,5 281,7 282,1 281,8 281,5 281,3 281,5 281,6 281,8 282,4 283,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 274,2 277,9 281,5 281,6 281,9 281,4 281,0 280,6 280,6 280,5 280,6 281,0 281,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 274,2 277,9 281,5 282,0 283,1 283,9 284,8 285,8 287,4 289,0 290,8 293,0 295,4
IE Baseline 360,8 359,8 357,7 359,3 360,2 361,3 362,8 364,8 368,0 371,8 376,1 381,1 386,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 360,8 359,8 357,7 359,4 359,2 357,5 356,4 356,3 357,8 360,2 363,4 367,5 372,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 360,8 359,8 357,7 359,2 358,7 356,5 355,0 354,4 355,5 357,4 360,2 363,9 368,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 360,8 359,8 357,7 360,0 361,4 362,2 363,7 365,9 369,7 374,3 379,6 385,7 392,5
IT Baseline 8.504,8 8.441,6 8.358,3 8.270,9 8.190,1 8.113,2 8.041,9 7.977,7 7.924,6 7.877,7 7.839,8 7.808,3 7.784,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.504,8 8.441,6 8.358,3 8.253,5 8.137,4 7.998,9 7.869,7 7.753,0 7.653,8 7.566,8 7.494,4 7.433,9 7.385,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.504,8 8.441,6 8.358,3 8.254,0 8.138,7 8.002,4 7.874,9 7.759,5 7.660,9 7.574,0 7.501,6 7.440,7 7.392,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.504,8 8.441,6 8.358,3 8.266,3 8.176,1 8.079,2 7.990,9 7.913,7 7.851,9 7.800,2 7.761,3 7.732,3 7.713,7
LU Baseline 76,9 75,5 74,1 73,2 72,3 71,7 71,4 71,4 71,6 71,9 72,4 72,9 73,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 76,9 75,5 74,1 72,9 71,5 69,8 68,5 67,6 67,2 67,1 67,3 67,7 68,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 76,9 75,5 74,1 72,9 71,5 69,7 68,4 67,5 67,1 67,0 67,1 67,5 68,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 76,9 75,5 74,1 73,2 72,5 71,7 71,4 71,3 71,5 71,9 72,5 73,1 73,9
NL Baseline 2.568,8 2.547,2 2.518,9 2.490,7 2.466,0 2.446,8 2.433,9 2.428,6 2.433,4 2.444,3 2.460,6 2.481,4 2.506,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.568,8 2.547,2 2.518,9 2.487,2 2.450,7 2.408,0 2.374,4 2.351,5 2.341,9 2.341,0 2.347,4 2.359,9 2.378,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.568,8 2.547,2 2.518,9 2.486,4 2.448,1 2.402,8 2.366,9 2.341,8 2.330,0 2.327,2 2.331,5 2.342,0 2.358,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.568,8 2.547,2 2.518,9 2.492,4 2.467,1 2.442,1 2.425,7 2.419,1 2.424,6 2.437,9 2.457,9 2.483,7 2.515,0
PL Baseline 1.146,8 1.167,7 1.190,1 1.211,4 1.238,6 1.268,6 1.300,3 1.331,7 1.363,5 1.392,8 1.420,3 1.448,0 1.475,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.146,8 1.167,7 1.190,1 1.207,6 1.227,4 1.245,5 1.264,8 1.283,0 1.301,1 1.316,3 1.329,0 1.341,6 1.352,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.146,8 1.167,7 1.190,1 1.207,2 1.226,3 1.243,4 1.261,6 1.278,8 1.295,7 1.309,8 1.321,4 1.332,7 1.342,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.146,8 1.167,7 1.190,1 1.209,2 1.232,4 1.255,9 1.280,8 1.305,1 1.329,5 1.351,2 1.370,8 1.390,5 1.409,5
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 890,1 859,3 825,9 808,3 791,2 778,9 771,7 768,9 769,3 771,3 774,5 778,8 783,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 890,1 859,3 825,9 806,1 783,2 761,9 746,2 735,3 728,4 723,8 721,2 720,3 720,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 890,1 859,3 825,9 806,1 783,5 762,7 747,5 737,1 730,6 726,4 724,1 723,4 724,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 890,1 859,3 825,9 807,3 787,6 771,4 760,6 754,5 752,0 751,4 752,5 755,1 758,7
SE Baseline 2.607,1 2.573,2 2.533,7 2.501,4 2.464,8 2.428,0 2.392,1 2.358,9 2.333,3 2.312,5 2.298,1 2.289,5 2.287,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.607,1 2.573,2 2.533,7 2.502,7 2.459,7 2.407,2 2.357,9 2.314,2 2.281,0 2.255,0 2.237,2 2.226,5 2.222,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.607,1 2.573,2 2.533,7 2.501,6 2.456,3 2.400,2 2.347,4 2.299,9 2.262,8 2.233,2 2.211,9 2.198,0 2.191,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.607,1 2.573,2 2.533,7 2.506,6 2.472,1 2.433,2 2.397,5 2.366,6 2.345,4 2.330,6 2.323,1 2.321,9 2.327,2
SI Baseline 55,0 55,3 55,5 55,8 56,2 56,6 57,1 57,8 58,8 60,0 61,3 62,8 64,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 55,0 55,3 55,5 55,6 55,6 55,3 55,1 55,2 55,6 56,4 57,3 58,4 59,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 55,0 55,3 55,5 55,6 55,5 55,1 54,9 54,9 55,3 56,0 56,9 58,0 59,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 55,0 55,3 55,5 55,7 55,9 56,0 56,3 56,7 57,5 58,5 59,8 61,2 62,8
UK Baseline 16.286,6 16.167,4 16.035,0 15.963,6 15.924,5 15.921,9 15.954,6 16.022,5 16.137,7 16.282,9 16.457,4 16.657,3 16.879,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 16.286,6 16.167,4 16.035,0 15.933,6 15.798,1 15.622,0 15.493,1 15.415,2 15.402,2 15.436,0 15.514,9 15.634,7 15.792,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 16.286,6 16.167,4 16.035,0 15.926,4 15.776,0 15.579,8 15.431,4 15.333,7 15.300,7 15.314,7 15.374,1 15.475,4 15.615,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 16.286,6 16.167,4 16.035,0 15.965,7 15.899,2 15.832,3 15.810,8 15.835,7 15.919,8 16.045,5 16.211,2 16.412,8 16.646,7
Fix resource costs small and medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 0 307.639 313.870 321.168 329.769 339.616 345.101 350.576 356.520 362.914 393.556 400.296 407.411 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 307.639 313.870 321.168 329.769 339.616 345.101 350.576 356.520 362.914 393.556 400.296 407.411 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 307.639 313.870 321.168 329.769 339.616 345.101 350.576 356.520 362.914 393.556 400.296 407.411 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 307.639 313.870 321.168 329.769 339.616 345.101 350.576 356.520 362.914 393.556 400.296 407.411
EU15 Baseline 0 286.835 292.626 299.413 307.414 316.583 321.568 326.543 331.952 337.773 354.680 360.692 367.056 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 286.835 292.626 299.413 307.414 316.583 321.568 326.543 331.952 337.773 354.680 360.692 367.056 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 286.835 292.626 299.413 307.414 316.583 321.568 326.543 331.952 337.773 354.680 360.692 367.056 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 286.835 292.626 299.413 307.414 316.583 321.568 326.543 331.952 337.773 354.680 360.692 367.056
EU10 Baseline 0 20.804 21.243 21.754 22.355 23.033 23.533 24.034 24.568 25.141 38.876 39.604 40.355 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 20.804 21.243 21.754 22.355 23.033 23.533 24.034 24.568 25.141 38.876 39.604 40.355 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 20.804 21.243 21.754 22.355 23.033 23.533 24.034 24.568 25.141 38.876 39.604 40.355 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 20.804 21.243 21.754 22.355 23.033 23.533 24.034 24.568 25.141 38.876 39.604 40.355
AT Baseline 0,0 6.410,3 6.567,0 6.728,6 6.924,2 7.139,9 7.299,3 7.443,9 7.589,2 7.749,7 7.918,3 8.110,3 8.317,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 6.410,3 6.567,0 6.728,6 6.924,2 7.139,9 7.299,3 7.443,9 7.589,2 7.749,7 7.918,3 8.110,3 8.317,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.410,3 6.567,0 6.728,6 6.924,2 7.139,9 7.299,3 7.443,9 7.589,2 7.749,7 7.918,3 8.110,3 8.317,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.410,3 6.567,0 6.728,6 6.924,2 7.139,9 7.299,3 7.443,9 7.589,2 7.749,7 7.918,3 8.110,3 8.317,6
BE Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 10.774,1 10.989,1 11.209,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 10.774,1 10.989,1 11.209,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 10.774,1 10.989,1 11.209,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 10.774,1 10.989,1 11.209,2
CZ Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.911,6 3.038,2 3.151,0 3.269,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.911,6 3.038,2 3.151,0 3.269,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.911,6 3.038,2 3.151,0 3.269,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.911,6 3.038,2 3.151,0 3.269,4
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 0,0 85.807,6 86.086,1 86.416,3 86.827,2 87.301,5 88.317,5 89.432,7 90.698,8 92.047,0 93.464,5 95.507,7 97.686,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 85.807,6 86.086,1 86.416,3 86.827,2 87.301,5 88.317,5 89.432,7 90.698,8 92.047,0 93.464,5 95.507,7 97.686,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 85.807,6 86.086,1 86.416,3 86.827,2 87.301,5 88.317,5 89.432,7 90.698,8 92.047,0 93.464,5 95.507,7 97.686,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 85.807,6 86.086,1 86.416,3 86.827,2 87.301,5 88.317,5 89.432,7 90.698,8 92.047,0 93.464,5 95.507,7 97.686,0
DK Baseline 0,0 2.043,4 2.125,6 2.218,6 2.325,7 2.447,2 2.466,7 2.483,9 2.504,8 2.535,3 2.567,6 2.587,9 2.614,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.043,4 2.125,6 2.218,6 2.325,7 2.447,2 2.466,7 2.483,9 2.504,8 2.535,3 2.567,6 2.587,9 2.614,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.043,4 2.125,6 2.218,6 2.325,7 2.447,2 2.466,7 2.483,9 2.504,8 2.535,3 2.567,6 2.587,9 2.614,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.043,4 2.125,6 2.218,6 2.325,7 2.447,2 2.466,7 2.483,9 2.504,8 2.535,3 2.567,6 2.587,9 2.614,6
ES Baseline 0,0 17.760,1 18.700,5 19.792,9 21.061,2 22.543,5 23.266,7 24.067,4 24.931,4 25.840,8 26.795,7 27.307,1 27.817,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 17.760,1 18.700,5 19.792,9 21.061,2 22.543,5 23.266,7 24.067,4 24.931,4 25.840,8 26.795,7 27.307,1 27.817,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 17.760,1 18.700,5 19.792,9 21.061,2 22.543,5 23.266,7 24.067,4 24.931,4 25.840,8 26.795,7 27.307,1 27.817,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 17.760,1 18.700,5 19.792,9 21.061,2 22.543,5 23.266,7 24.067,4 24.931,4 25.840,8 26.795,7 27.307,1 27.817,6
FI Baseline 0,0 2.315,7 2.634,5 3.047,8 3.581,2 4.252,5 4.500,5 4.577,8 4.659,6 4.753,3 4.849,7 4.904,2 4.959,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.315,7 2.634,5 3.047,8 3.581,2 4.252,5 4.500,5 4.577,8 4.659,6 4.753,3 4.849,7 4.904,2 4.959,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.315,7 2.634,5 3.047,8 3.581,2 4.252,5 4.500,5 4.577,8 4.659,6 4.753,3 4.849,7 4.904,2 4.959,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.315,7 2.634,5 3.047,8 3.581,2 4.252,5 4.500,5 4.577,8 4.659,6 4.753,3 4.849,7 4.904,2 4.959,8
FR Baseline 0,0 49.926,5 50.651,6 51.497,6 52.392,3 53.346,2 54.078,7 54.909,0 55.825,1 56.801,5 57.837,3 58.463,4 59.135,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 49.926,5 50.651,6 51.497,6 52.392,3 53.346,2 54.078,7 54.909,0 55.825,1 56.801,5 57.837,3 58.463,4 59.135,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 49.926,5 50.651,6 51.497,6 52.392,3 53.346,2 54.078,7 54.909,0 55.825,1 56.801,5 57.837,3 58.463,4 59.135,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 49.926,5 50.651,6 51.497,6 52.392,3 53.346,2 54.078,7 54.909,0 55.825,1 56.801,5 57.837,3 58.463,4 59.135,1
GR Baseline 0,0 1.714,6 1.820,7 1.944,1 2.082,7 2.242,8 2.337,9 2.423,0 2.511,4 2.609,8 2.714,7 2.728,6 2.728,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.714,6 1.820,7 1.944,1 2.082,7 2.242,8 2.337,9 2.423,0 2.511,4 2.609,8 2.714,7 2.728,6 2.728,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.714,6 1.820,7 1.944,1 2.082,7 2.242,8 2.337,9 2.423,0 2.511,4 2.609,8 2.714,7 2.728,6 2.728,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.714,6 1.820,7 1.944,1 2.082,7 2.242,8 2.337,9 2.423,0 2.511,4 2.609,8 2.714,7 2.728,6 2.728,8
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.275,0 2.372,6 2.442,1 2.507,9 2.579,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.275,0 2.372,6 2.442,1 2.507,9 2.579,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.275,0 2.372,6 2.442,1 2.507,9 2.579,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.275,0 2.372,6 2.442,1 2.507,9 2.579,6
IE Baseline 0,0 1.687,8 1.855,6 2.051,3 2.281,0 2.550,1 2.645,9 2.741,5 2.844,9 2.963,4 3.088,3 3.169,5 3.249,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.687,8 1.855,6 2.051,3 2.281,0 2.550,1 2.645,9 2.741,5 2.844,9 2.963,4 3.088,3 3.169,5 3.249,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.687,8 1.855,6 2.051,3 2.281,0 2.550,1 2.645,9 2.741,5 2.844,9 2.963,4 3.088,3 3.169,5 3.249,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.687,8 1.855,6 2.051,3 2.281,0 2.550,1 2.645,9 2.741,5 2.844,9 2.963,4 3.088,3 3.169,5 3.249,3
IT Baseline 0,0 40.079,9 41.729,6 43.679,4 46.056,5 48.862,3 49.140,3 49.431,4 49.774,8 50.141,8 50.528,7 51.269,4 52.066,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 40.079,9 41.729,6 43.679,4 46.056,5 48.862,3 49.140,3 49.431,4 49.774,8 50.141,8 50.528,7 51.269,4 52.066,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 40.079,9 41.729,6 43.679,4 46.056,5 48.862,3 49.140,3 49.431,4 49.774,8 50.141,8 50.528,7 51.269,4 52.066,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 40.079,9 41.729,6 43.679,4 46.056,5 48.862,3 49.140,3 49.431,4 49.774,8 50.141,8 50.528,7 51.269,4 52.066,1
LU Baseline 0,0 845,1 877,0 919,6 973,7 1.039,4 1.066,0 1.091,1 1.118,6 1.148,1 1.178,2 1.209,3 1.241,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 845,1 877,0 919,6 973,7 1.039,4 1.066,0 1.091,1 1.118,6 1.148,1 1.178,2 1.209,3 1.241,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 845,1 877,0 919,6 973,7 1.039,4 1.066,0 1.091,1 1.118,6 1.148,1 1.178,2 1.209,3 1.241,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 845,1 877,0 919,6 973,7 1.039,4 1.066,0 1.091,1 1.118,6 1.148,1 1.178,2 1.209,3 1.241,7
NL Baseline 0,0 8.999,3 9.166,6 9.358,6 9.579,3 9.831,2 10.029,5 10.242,5 10.474,6 10.719,1 10.970,3 11.242,7 11.526,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 8.999,3 9.166,6 9.358,6 9.579,3 9.831,2 10.029,5 10.242,5 10.474,6 10.719,1 10.970,3 11.242,7 11.526,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 8.999,3 9.166,6 9.358,6 9.579,3 9.831,2 10.029,5 10.242,5 10.474,6 10.719,1 10.970,3 11.242,7 11.526,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 8.999,3 9.166,6 9.358,6 9.579,3 9.831,2 10.029,5 10.242,5 10.474,6 10.719,1 10.970,3 11.242,7 11.526,7
PL Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 10.516,9 11.182,6 11.783,5 12.209,9 12.652,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 10.516,9 11.182,6 11.783,5 12.209,9 12.652,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 10.516,9 11.182,6 11.783,5 12.209,9 12.652,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 10.516,9 11.182,6 11.783,5 12.209,9 12.652,6
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 0,0 4.129,3 4.371,8 4.632,6 4.915,5 5.219,7 5.285,8 5.367,9 5.460,3 5.557,2 5.658,1 5.646,9 5.633,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 4.129,3 4.371,8 4.632,6 4.915,5 5.219,7 5.285,8 5.367,9 5.460,3 5.557,2 5.658,1 5.646,9 5.633,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 4.129,3 4.371,8 4.632,6 4.915,5 5.219,7 5.285,8 5.367,9 5.460,3 5.557,2 5.658,1 5.646,9 5.633,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 4.129,3 4.371,8 4.632,6 4.915,5 5.219,7 5.285,8 5.367,9 5.460,3 5.557,2 5.658,1 5.646,9 5.633,1
SE Baseline 0,0 6.345,3 6.432,1 6.535,9 6.668,8 6.812,8 6.929,7 7.042,0 7.159,8 7.286,8 7.419,0 7.515,0 7.626,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 6.345,3 6.432,1 6.535,9 6.668,8 6.812,8 6.929,7 7.042,0 7.159,8 7.286,8 7.419,0 7.515,0 7.626,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.345,3 6.432,1 6.535,9 6.668,8 6.812,8 6.929,7 7.042,0 7.159,8 7.286,8 7.419,0 7.515,0 7.626,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.345,3 6.432,1 6.535,9 6.668,8 6.812,8 6.929,7 7.042,0 7.159,8 7.286,8 7.419,0 7.515,0 7.626,3
SI Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 728,1 740,3 753,4 767,3 782,0 801,7 823,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 728,1 740,3 753,4 767,3 782,0 801,7 823,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 728,1 740,3 753,4 767,3 782,0 801,7 823,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 728,1 740,3 753,4 767,3 782,0 801,7 823,7
UK Baseline 0,0 58.769,7 59.607,6 60.589,9 61.744,4 62.994,1 64.203,7 65.288,3 66.398,5 67.619,4 68.915,9 70.041,1 71.243,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 58.769,7 59.607,6 60.589,9 61.744,4 62.994,1 64.203,7 65.288,3 66.398,5 67.619,4 68.915,9 70.041,1 71.243,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 58.769,7 59.607,6 60.589,9 61.744,4 62.994,1 64.203,7 65.288,3 66.398,5 67.619,4 68.915,9 70.041,1 71.243,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 58.769,7 59.607,6 60.589,9 61.744,4 62.994,1 64.203,7 65.288,3 66.398,5 67.619,4 68.915,9 70.041,1 71.243,9
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 415.432 423.970 433.043 442.509 452.851 463.644 474.864 486.483 498.469 510.802 523.452 536.393 549.601 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 415.432 423.970 433.043 442.218 452.493 463.908 475.659 487.715 500.055 512.649 525.473 538.509 551.751 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 415.432 423.970 433.043 442.716 454.016 466.973 480.199 493.721 507.531 521.582 535.843 550.293 564.918 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 415.432 423.970 433.043 442.304 452.648 463.968 475.613 487.577 499.841 512.373 525.148 538.147 551.359
EU15 Baseline 374.212 381.814 389.876 398.313 407.507 417.112 427.113 437.488 448.210 459.260 470.609 482.230 494.099 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 374.212 381.814 389.876 398.080 407.268 417.483 428.010 438.825 449.914 461.246 472.797 484.547 496.488 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 374.212 381.814 389.876 398.527 408.633 420.225 432.066 444.188 456.582 469.208 482.033 495.035 508.197 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 374.212 381.814 389.876 398.158 407.409 417.541 427.976 438.711 449.731 461.007 472.511 484.226 496.137
EU10 Baseline 41.221 42.156 43.166 44.196 45.344 46.532 47.751 48.995 50.259 51.542 52.843 54.163 55.502 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 41.221 42.156 43.166 44.138 45.225 46.425 47.649 48.889 50.141 51.403 52.676 53.962 55.263 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 41.221 42.156 43.166 44.189 45.383 46.748 48.132 49.534 50.949 52.374 53.810 55.258 56.720 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 41.221 42.156 43.166 44.146 45.239 46.426 47.637 48.866 50.110 51.366 52.636 53.921 55.223
AT Baseline 8.547,8 8.794,1 9.055,6 9.311,8 9.603,6 9.899,5 10.196,1 10.491,2 10.784,1 11.075,3 11.366,1 11.658,1 11.952,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.547,8 8.794,1 9.055,6 9.301,7 9.574,2 9.865,4 10.156,0 10.444,3 10.729,7 11.012,9 11.295,4 11.578,7 11.865,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.547,8 8.794,1 9.055,6 9.310,6 9.600,3 9.915,9 10.229,6 10.540,7 10.849,2 11.155,9 11.462,5 11.770,5 12.082,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.547,8 8.794,1 9.055,6 9.303,0 9.575,8 9.863,1 10.150,0 10.435,0 10.717,7 10.998,7 11.279,4 11.561,3 11.846,5
BE Baseline 11.449,7 11.701,4 11.964,9 12.194,0 12.472,1 12.759,2 13.054,1 13.355,6 13.662,7 13.974,7 14.290,7 14.610,1 14.932,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.449,7 11.701,4 11.964,9 12.190,4 12.448,1 12.735,9 13.030,2 13.329,6 13.632,6 13.938,7 14.247,2 14.558,6 14.872,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.449,7 11.701,4 11.964,9 12.203,0 12.484,8 12.807,7 13.135,1 13.467,5 13.803,5 14.142,0 14.482,3 14.824,5 15.168,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.449,7 11.701,4 11.964,9 12.191,4 12.448,1 12.728,2 13.014,6 13.306,8 13.603,7 13.904,9 14.209,9 14.518,4 14.830,3
CZ Baseline 3.395,8 3.531,1 3.676,1 3.778,2 3.881,9 3.989,3 4.100,2 4.214,5 4.332,1 4.453,9 4.581,3 4.716,5 4.861,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.395,8 3.531,1 3.676,1 3.781,7 3.892,4 4.012,1 4.135,5 4.262,2 4.392,4 4.527,0 4.667,8 4.817,4 4.977,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.395,8 3.531,1 3.676,1 3.786,3 3.904,9 4.036,7 4.171,7 4.310,2 4.452,7 4.600,4 4.755,7 4.921,8 5.101,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.395,8 3.531,1 3.676,1 3.782,7 3.894,1 4.013,7 4.136,8 4.263,2 4.393,2 4.527,7 4.668,8 4.818,8 4.980,2
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 100.129,9 102.682,2 105.342,0 107.897,9 110.621,6 113.444,9 116.364,4 119.376,2 122.477,1 125.665,2 128.937,6 132.291,1 135.723,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 100.129,9 102.682,2 105.342,0 107.801,3 110.502,4 113.458,4 116.487,4 119.587,2 122.759,5 126.001,7 129.311,0 132.687,8 136.134,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 100.129,9 102.682,2 105.342,0 107.906,0 110.812,0 114.068,2 117.375,7 120.751,4 124.199,6 127.715,4 131.295,7 134.941,0 138.653,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 100.129,9 102.682,2 105.342,0 107.813,2 110.513,1 113.425,1 116.408,9 119.468,5 122.603,8 125.812,4 129.091,4 132.441,0 135.862,1
DK Baseline 2.658,8 2.717,0 2.792,8 2.854,0 2.918,1 2.986,7 3.059,2 3.135,0 3.212,2 3.288,7 3.361,3 3.427,6 3.486,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.658,8 2.717,0 2.792,8 2.833,3 2.880,0 2.935,5 2.995,0 3.057,7 3.122,0 3.185,8 3.246,2 3.301,1 3.349,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.658,8 2.717,0 2.792,8 2.837,1 2.891,4 2.958,4 3.028,9 3.102,3 3.177,1 3.251,1 3.321,8 3.386,9 3.445,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.658,8 2.717,0 2.792,8 2.834,2 2.881,9 2.937,5 2.996,7 3.059,0 3.122,9 3.186,5 3.247,0 3.302,4 3.351,8
ES Baseline 28.368,6 28.957,0 29.585,7 30.344,6 31.166,8 32.028,3 32.930,8 33.875,1 34.861,9 35.892,5 36.966,7 38.084,1 39.243,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 28.368,6 28.957,0 29.585,7 30.351,6 31.197,6 32.120,5 33.079,9 34.075,8 35.109,5 36.180,9 37.289,8 38.435,5 39.617,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 28.368,6 28.957,0 29.585,7 30.378,2 31.281,9 32.292,3 33.336,4 34.417,5 35.537,9 36.697,3 37.895,4 39.131,8 40.405,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 28.368,6 28.957,0 29.585,7 30.356,9 31.208,2 32.127,6 33.082,2 34.073,6 35.103,0 36.170,5 37.276,1 38.418,9 39.598,1
FI Baseline 5.034,0 5.123,0 5.230,4 5.382,5 5.557,1 5.744,4 5.946,0 6.164,3 6.400,2 6.651,0 6.909,7 7.166,3 7.410,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.034,0 5.123,0 5.230,4 5.362,2 5.514,3 5.685,7 5.869,6 6.068,0 6.281,7 6.508,5 6.742,3 6.974,8 7.197,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.034,0 5.123,0 5.230,4 5.366,8 5.530,5 5.720,3 5.922,5 6.139,9 6.373,6 6.621,3 6.876,6 7.130,6 7.374,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.034,0 5.123,0 5.230,4 5.363,2 5.516,6 5.687,6 5.870,3 6.067,1 6.278,8 6.503,4 6.735,2 6.966,4 7.188,7
FR Baseline 59.895,1 60.719,4 61.608,2 62.730,0 64.001,3 65.340,7 66.745,1 68.210,8 69.734,0 71.311,6 72.940,1 74.616,1 76.336,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 59.895,1 60.719,4 61.608,2 62.743,1 64.052,5 65.532,2 67.062,4 68.638,7 70.258,6 71.917,3 73.611,1 75.336,8 77.092,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 59.895,1 60.719,4 61.608,2 62.820,1 64.290,3 66.009,3 67.767,1 69.568,7 71.411,9 73.289,4 75.195,6 77.126,2 79.077,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 59.895,1 60.719,4 61.608,2 62.758,8 64.084,4 65.556,7 67.077,9 68.647,1 70.261,7 71.916,5 73.607,6 75.331,7 77.086,2
GR Baseline 2.735,4 2.747,8 2.766,1 2.824,6 2.893,8 2.965,9 3.040,9 3.118,8 3.199,4 3.283,0 3.369,4 3.458,6 3.550,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.735,4 2.747,8 2.766,1 2.819,9 2.883,8 2.953,5 3.025,6 3.100,0 3.176,6 3.255,5 3.336,7 3.420,0 3.505,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.735,4 2.747,8 2.766,1 2.821,8 2.891,9 2.971,6 3.053,7 3.138,1 3.225,1 3.314,7 3.406,7 3.501,1 3.598,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.735,4 2.747,8 2.766,1 2.820,5 2.885,7 2.956,8 3.030,1 3.105,8 3.183,8 3.264,2 3.346,9 3.431,8 3.519,0
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 2.659,2 2.746,7 2.842,6 2.905,1 2.968,1 3.033,6 3.102,3 3.175,3 3.253,9 3.339,6 3.434,0 3.538,0 3.651,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.659,2 2.746,7 2.842,6 2.906,6 2.973,0 3.045,3 3.120,9 3.201,0 3.287,2 3.380,5 3.482,1 3.592,0 3.710,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.659,2 2.746,7 2.842,6 2.909,4 2.980,4 3.060,1 3.143,3 3.231,8 3.327,8 3.432,7 3.547,4 3.672,4 3.806,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.659,2 2.746,7 2.842,6 2.907,1 2.973,8 3.045,9 3.121,2 3.201,1 3.287,1 3.380,4 3.482,0 3.592,3 3.710,8
IE Baseline 3.338,8 3.432,7 3.531,1 3.667,0 3.816,5 3.972,1 4.133,7 4.301,0 4.473,7 4.651,7 4.834,6 5.022,4 5.215,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.338,8 3.432,7 3.531,1 3.653,3 3.789,6 3.938,8 4.093,5 4.253,5 4.418,9 4.589,5 4.765,2 4.946,1 5.132,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.338,8 3.432,7 3.531,1 3.658,0 3.805,9 3.973,2 4.145,7 4.323,7 4.507,3 4.696,2 4.890,2 5.089,3 5.293,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.338,8 3.432,7 3.531,1 3.654,5 3.792,8 3.943,1 4.098,8 4.260,1 4.426,7 4.598,7 4.775,8 4.958,0 5.145,6
IT Baseline 52.916,4 53.800,2 54.716,8 55.489,8 56.312,2 57.165,1 58.046,8 58.955,4 59.889,0 60.845,4 61.822,3 62.818,0 63.830,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 52.916,4 53.800,2 54.716,8 55.502,7 56.369,3 57.340,3 58.330,1 59.335,3 60.354,8 61.384,9 62.423,9 63.469,6 64.520,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 52.916,4 53.800,2 54.716,8 55.566,9 56.557,2 57.714,5 58.879,1 60.057,1 61.248,5 62.448,6 63.655,4 64.866,8 66.081,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 52.916,4 53.800,2 54.716,8 55.517,1 56.398,4 57.369,6 58.356,0 59.358,8 60.377,1 61.407,2 62.447,2 63.495,2 64.549,6
LU Baseline 1.277,6 1.314,8 1.353,1 1.387,3 1.428,6 1.470,6 1.513,1 1.555,9 1.598,8 1.641,5 1.684,1 1.726,5 1.769,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.277,6 1.314,8 1.353,1 1.384,6 1.421,7 1.463,2 1.505,2 1.547,5 1.590,0 1.632,6 1.675,2 1.717,8 1.760,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.277,6 1.314,8 1.353,1 1.387,2 1.429,2 1.478,0 1.526,7 1.575,3 1.623,3 1.670,4 1.716,5 1.761,7 1.806,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.277,6 1.314,8 1.353,1 1.385,2 1.422,7 1.463,9 1.505,5 1.547,5 1.589,7 1.632,0 1.674,4 1.716,8 1.759,4
NL Baseline 11.837,2 12.160,7 12.497,6 12.837,2 13.200,2 13.573,7 13.955,0 14.342,0 14.733,2 15.129,0 15.530,2 15.938,1 16.353,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.837,2 12.160,7 12.497,6 12.821,8 13.177,0 13.566,4 13.960,7 14.357,2 14.755,0 15.153,6 15.554,2 15.958,3 16.367,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.837,2 12.160,7 12.497,6 12.840,1 13.233,6 13.683,6 14.139,1 14.599,0 15.061,9 15.526,4 15.992,7 16.461,8 16.934,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.837,2 12.160,7 12.497,6 12.825,5 13.184,2 13.572,4 13.965,6 14.362,2 14.761,1 15.161,7 15.564,5 15.970,9 16.381,9
PL Baseline 13.119,7 13.612,9 14.133,4 14.557,3 14.987,5 15.430,0 15.887,7 16.366,5 16.873,2 17.413,9 17.993,2 18.614,7 19.278,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.119,7 13.612,9 14.133,4 14.568,2 15.020,8 15.502,2 15.999,2 16.518,8 17.070,6 17.660,9 18.295,0 18.976,6 19.706,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.119,7 13.612,9 14.133,4 14.581,1 15.056,3 15.571,8 16.100,9 16.654,8 17.244,9 17.879,0 18.563,6 19.303,2 20.097,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.119,7 13.612,9 14.133,4 14.570,5 15.024,6 15.504,1 15.998,6 16.516,0 17.065,5 17.654,1 18.287,2 18.968,8 19.698,6
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 5.624,3 5.621,0 5.624,6 5.720,2 5.832,4 5.955,6 6.089,1 6.230,3 6.375,2 6.520,0 6.661,9 6.799,8 6.935,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.624,3 5.621,0 5.624,6 5.723,7 5.848,0 5.994,5 6.151,0 6.314,0 6.479,1 6.641,7 6.798,8 6.949,5 7.095,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.624,3 5.621,0 5.624,6 5.730,3 5.872,4 6.047,7 6.233,4 6.425,9 6.620,3 6.811,0 6.994,2 7.168,9 7.337,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.624,3 5.621,0 5.624,6 5.725,2 5.851,9 5.999,4 6.156,8 6.321,1 6.487,8 6.652,1 6.810,8 6.963,0 7.110,2
SE Baseline 7.778,5 7.958,0 8.167,7 8.385,0 8.616,3 8.857,2 9.105,7 9.359,6 9.617,0 9.877,5 10.140,9 10.407,1 10.675,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.778,5 7.958,0 8.167,7 8.360,9 8.575,4 8.812,7 9.055,9 9.302,5 9.551,6 9.802,8 10.056,0 10.311,7 10.569,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.778,5 7.958,0 8.167,7 8.370,1 8.604,0 8.870,4 9.140,6 9.413,1 9.687,5 9.963,7 10.242,4 10.524,3 10.809,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.778,5 7.958,0 8.167,7 8.362,3 8.577,6 8.812,1 9.051,9 9.295,3 9.541,1 9.789,4 10.040,4 10.294,5 10.551,5
SI Baseline 848,4 875,2 904,3 937,6 973,1 1.010,5 1.049,6 1.090,3 1.132,2 1.175,3 1.219,5 1.265,1 1.312,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 848,4 875,2 904,3 937,8 974,4 1.014,4 1.055,8 1.098,4 1.142,1 1.186,5 1.231,7 1.277,9 1.325,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 848,4 875,2 904,3 939,1 978,6 1.023,0 1.068,7 1.115,7 1.163,7 1.212,5 1.262,0 1.312,5 1.364,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 848,4 875,2 904,3 938,1 975,2 1.015,5 1.057,2 1.100,2 1.144,2 1.189,0 1.234,6 1.281,2 1.329,3
UK Baseline 72.619,7 74.084,2 75.639,9 77.286,9 79.066,0 80.948,4 82.933,3 85.016,4 87.191,3 89.453,0 91.793,7 94.206,4 96.684,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 72.619,7 74.084,2 75.639,9 77.229,8 79.034,2 81.079,6 83.207,9 85.413,8 87.693,9 90.039,7 92.443,8 94.900,8 97.406,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 72.619,7 74.084,2 75.639,9 77.331,2 79.347,5 81.714,4 84.152,7 86.667,4 89.255,7 91.904,8 94.605,3 97.349,0 100.129,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 72.619,7 74.084,2 75.639,9 77.247,7 79.068,0 81.098,4 83.210,3 85.403,2 87.672,0 90.008,5 92.405,0 94.855,5 97.355,5
variable resource costs small and medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 0 255.479 263.099 260.253 272.167 304.662 301.728 298.687 312.000 341.307 387.834 390.091 391.459 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 255.479 263.099 260.253 272.167 304.662 301.728 298.687 312.000 341.307 387.834 390.091 391.459 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 255.479 263.099 260.253 272.167 304.662 301.728 298.687 312.000 341.307 387.834 390.091 391.459 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 255.479 263.099 260.253 272.167 304.662 301.728 298.687 312.000 341.307 387.834 390.091 391.459
EU15 Baseline 0 234.997 242.018 239.417 250.216 279.490 276.964 274.227 285.668 312.385 344.465 346.538 347.811 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 234.997 242.018 239.417 250.216 279.490 276.964 274.227 285.668 312.385 344.465 346.538 347.811 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 234.997 242.018 239.417 250.216 279.490 276.964 274.227 285.668 312.385 344.465 346.538 347.811 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 234.997 242.018 239.417 250.216 279.490 276.964 274.227 285.668 312.385 344.465 346.538 347.811
EU10 Baseline 0 20.482 21.081 20.835 21.951 25.171 24.764 24.460 26.332 28.922 43.369 43.552 43.648 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 20.482 21.081 20.835 21.951 25.171 24.764 24.460 26.332 28.922 43.369 43.552 43.648 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 20.482 21.081 20.835 21.951 25.171 24.764 24.460 26.332 28.922 43.369 43.552 43.648 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 20.482 21.081 20.835 21.951 25.171 24.764 24.460 26.332 28.922 43.369 43.552 43.648
AT Baseline 0,0 5.620,5 5.801,4 5.731,1 5.896,3 6.514,9 6.504,9 6.517,1 6.651,7 7.378,3 7.851,5 7.946,8 8.017,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 5.620,5 5.801,4 5.731,1 5.896,3 6.514,9 6.504,9 6.517,1 6.651,7 7.378,3 7.851,5 7.946,8 8.017,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 5.620,5 5.801,4 5.731,1 5.896,3 6.514,9 6.504,9 6.517,1 6.651,7 7.378,3 7.851,5 7.946,8 8.017,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 5.620,5 5.801,4 5.731,1 5.896,3 6.514,9 6.504,9 6.517,1 6.651,7 7.378,3 7.851,5 7.946,8 8.017,2
BE Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 9.785,2 9.830,8 9.861,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 9.785,2 9.830,8 9.861,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 9.785,2 9.830,8 9.861,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 9.785,2 9.830,8 9.861,3
CZ Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.519,6 2.651,7 2.687,0 2.729,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.519,6 2.651,7 2.687,0 2.729,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.519,6 2.651,7 2.687,0 2.729,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.519,6 2.651,7 2.687,0 2.729,0
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 0,0 72.727,5 74.222,7 72.628,9 74.322,1 78.755,4 78.251,1 78.161,6 81.128,3 85.229,5 89.968,6 91.026,6 91.838,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 72.727,5 74.222,7 72.628,9 74.322,1 78.755,4 78.251,1 78.161,6 81.128,3 85.229,5 89.968,6 91.026,6 91.838,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 72.727,5 74.222,7 72.628,9 74.322,1 78.755,4 78.251,1 78.161,6 81.128,3 85.229,5 89.968,6 91.026,6 91.838,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 72.727,5 74.222,7 72.628,9 74.322,1 78.755,4 78.251,1 78.161,6 81.128,3 85.229,5 89.968,6 91.026,6 91.838,0
DK Baseline 0,0 2.494,7 2.611,1 2.567,6 2.777,5 3.317,7 3.191,7 3.154,0 3.450,2 3.759,7 4.107,4 4.081,7 4.044,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.494,7 2.611,1 2.567,6 2.777,5 3.317,7 3.191,7 3.154,0 3.450,2 3.759,7 4.107,4 4.081,7 4.044,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.494,7 2.611,1 2.567,6 2.777,5 3.317,7 3.191,7 3.154,0 3.450,2 3.759,7 4.107,4 4.081,7 4.044,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.494,7 2.611,1 2.567,6 2.777,5 3.317,7 3.191,7 3.154,0 3.450,2 3.759,7 4.107,4 4.081,7 4.044,4
ES Baseline 0,0 15.413,3 16.404,2 16.411,9 17.655,8 20.548,0 20.775,3 20.902,9 21.549,1 25.148,2 27.809,1 28.018,5 28.231,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 15.413,3 16.404,2 16.411,9 17.655,8 20.548,0 20.775,3 20.902,9 21.549,1 25.148,2 27.809,1 28.018,5 28.231,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 15.413,3 16.404,2 16.411,9 17.655,8 20.548,0 20.775,3 20.902,9 21.549,1 25.148,2 27.809,1 28.018,5 28.231,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 15.413,3 16.404,2 16.411,9 17.655,8 20.548,0 20.775,3 20.902,9 21.549,1 25.148,2 27.809,1 28.018,5 28.231,3
FI Baseline 0,0 2.806,9 2.921,1 3.036,4 3.591,9 4.602,8 4.653,1 4.670,1 5.144,1 5.613,0 6.125,9 6.175,6 6.201,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.806,9 2.921,1 3.036,4 3.591,9 4.602,8 4.653,1 4.670,1 5.144,1 5.613,0 6.125,9 6.175,6 6.201,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.806,9 2.921,1 3.036,4 3.591,9 4.602,8 4.653,1 4.670,1 5.144,1 5.613,0 6.125,9 6.175,6 6.201,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.806,9 2.921,1 3.036,4 3.591,9 4.602,8 4.653,1 4.670,1 5.144,1 5.613,0 6.125,9 6.175,6 6.201,5
FR Baseline 0,0 35.905,2 36.826,3 36.263,0 37.710,4 42.374,1 41.632,5 41.105,1 41.559,4 47.231,2 50.667,8 50.649,7 50.608,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 35.905,2 36.826,3 36.263,0 37.710,4 42.374,1 41.632,5 41.105,1 41.559,4 47.231,2 50.667,8 50.649,7 50.608,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 35.905,2 36.826,3 36.263,0 37.710,4 42.374,1 41.632,5 41.105,1 41.559,4 47.231,2 50.667,8 50.649,7 50.608,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 35.905,2 36.826,3 36.263,0 37.710,4 42.374,1 41.632,5 41.105,1 41.559,4 47.231,2 50.667,8 50.649,7 50.608,1
GR Baseline 0,0 1.876,7 2.034,8 2.066,8 2.291,4 2.943,9 2.909,3 2.899,8 2.983,3 3.708,8 4.194,6 4.141,9 4.095,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.876,7 2.034,8 2.066,8 2.291,4 2.943,9 2.909,3 2.899,8 2.983,3 3.708,8 4.194,6 4.141,9 4.095,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.876,7 2.034,8 2.066,8 2.291,4 2.943,9 2.909,3 2.899,8 2.983,3 3.708,8 4.194,6 4.141,9 4.095,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.876,7 2.034,8 2.066,8 2.291,4 2.943,9 2.909,3 2.899,8 2.983,3 3.708,8 4.194,6 4.141,9 4.095,9
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.580,7 1.802,1 1.982,2 2.013,5 2.049,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.580,7 1.802,1 1.982,2 2.013,5 2.049,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.580,7 1.802,1 1.982,2 2.013,5 2.049,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.580,7 1.802,1 1.982,2 2.013,5 2.049,3
IE Baseline 0,0 1.415,6 1.513,9 1.607,6 1.758,8 2.155,7 2.254,3 2.159,1 2.447,7 2.702,4 2.984,8 3.028,1 3.063,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.415,6 1.513,9 1.607,6 1.758,8 2.155,7 2.254,3 2.159,1 2.447,7 2.702,4 2.984,8 3.028,1 3.063,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.415,6 1.513,9 1.607,6 1.758,8 2.155,7 2.254,3 2.159,1 2.447,7 2.702,4 2.984,8 3.028,1 3.063,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.415,6 1.513,9 1.607,6 1.758,8 2.155,7 2.254,3 2.159,1 2.447,7 2.702,4 2.984,8 3.028,1 3.063,8
IT Baseline 0,0 36.647,6 38.348,9 38.550,1 41.345,3 47.997,7 46.723,1 46.058,6 46.806,3 52.679,2 56.314,2 56.596,3 56.549,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 36.647,6 38.348,9 38.550,1 41.345,3 47.997,7 46.723,1 46.058,6 46.806,3 52.679,2 56.314,2 56.596,3 56.549,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 36.647,6 38.348,9 38.550,1 41.345,3 47.997,7 46.723,1 46.058,6 46.806,3 52.679,2 56.314,2 56.596,3 56.549,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 36.647,6 38.348,9 38.550,1 41.345,3 47.997,7 46.723,1 46.058,6 46.806,3 52.679,2 56.314,2 56.596,3 56.549,4
LU Baseline 0,0 330,2 346,8 346,9 373,0 430,2 426,3 427,9 461,5 494,5 530,6 535,9 539,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 330,2 346,8 346,9 373,0 430,2 426,3 427,9 461,5 494,5 530,6 535,9 539,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 330,2 346,8 346,9 373,0 430,2 426,3 427,9 461,5 494,5 530,6 535,9 539,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 330,2 346,8 346,9 373,0 430,2 426,3 427,9 461,5 494,5 530,6 535,9 539,9
NL Baseline 0,0 8.081,6 8.262,5 8.116,9 8.481,9 9.653,2 9.338,0 9.177,2 10.132,6 10.941,9 11.858,7 11.986,9 12.060,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 8.081,6 8.262,5 8.116,9 8.481,9 9.653,2 9.338,0 9.177,2 10.132,6 10.941,9 11.858,7 11.986,9 12.060,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 8.081,6 8.262,5 8.116,9 8.481,9 9.653,2 9.338,0 9.177,2 10.132,6 10.941,9 11.858,7 11.986,9 12.060,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 8.081,6 8.262,5 8.116,9 8.481,9 9.653,2 9.338,0 9.177,2 10.132,6 10.941,9 11.858,7 11.986,9 12.060,5
PL Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 7.432,4 7.670,1 8.484,4 8.683,4 8.918,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 7.432,4 7.670,1 8.484,4 8.683,4 8.918,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 7.432,4 7.670,1 8.484,4 8.683,4 8.918,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 7.432,4 7.670,1 8.484,4 8.683,4 8.918,6
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 0,0 3.285,0 3.539,6 3.599,0 3.972,1 5.102,0 5.295,1 4.330,1 5.368,9 5.842,8 6.385,6 6.273,9 6.156,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 3.285,0 3.539,6 3.599,0 3.972,1 5.102,0 5.295,1 4.330,1 5.368,9 5.842,8 6.385,6 6.273,9 6.156,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.285,0 3.539,6 3.599,0 3.972,1 5.102,0 5.295,1 4.330,1 5.368,9 5.842,8 6.385,6 6.273,9 6.156,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.285,0 3.539,6 3.599,0 3.972,1 5.102,0 5.295,1 4.330,1 5.368,9 5.842,8 6.385,6 6.273,9 6.156,4
SE Baseline 0,0 6.836,9 6.989,2 6.901,2 7.226,4 8.043,4 8.059,5 7.979,8 8.476,5 9.065,2 9.723,8 9.753,4 9.773,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 6.836,9 6.989,2 6.901,2 7.226,4 8.043,4 8.059,5 7.979,8 8.476,5 9.065,2 9.723,8 9.753,4 9.773,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.836,9 6.989,2 6.901,2 7.226,4 8.043,4 8.059,5 7.979,8 8.476,5 9.065,2 9.723,8 9.753,4 9.773,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.836,9 6.989,2 6.901,2 7.226,4 8.043,4 8.059,5 7.979,8 8.476,5 9.065,2 9.723,8 9.753,4 9.773,8
SI Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 536,6 548,0 579,3 623,1 671,4 682,4 689,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 536,6 548,0 579,3 623,1 671,4 682,4 689,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 536,6 548,0 579,3 623,1 671,4 682,4 689,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 536,6 548,0 579,3 623,1 671,4 682,4 689,6
UK Baseline 0,0 41.555,1 42.195,3 41.589,9 42.813,2 47.051,5 46.949,3 46.683,9 49.508,6 52.590,1 56.157,7 56.492,3 56.769,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 41.555,1 42.195,3 41.589,9 42.813,2 47.051,5 46.949,3 46.683,9 49.508,6 52.590,1 56.157,7 56.492,3 56.769,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 41.555,1 42.195,3 41.589,9 42.813,2 47.051,5 46.949,3 46.683,9 49.508,6 52.590,1 56.157,7 56.492,3 56.769,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 41.555,1 42.195,3 41.589,9 42.813,2 47.051,5 46.949,3 46.683,9 49.508,6 52.590,1 56.157,7 56.492,3 56.769,6
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 392.844 394.525 396.417 400.594 405.342 410.634 416.345 422.752 432.136 442.036 452.491 463.244 474.301 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 392.844 394.525 396.417 400.287 404.438 409.002 414.053 419.875 428.680 438.051 448.036 458.371 469.035 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 392.844 394.525 396.417 400.408 404.872 409.977 415.670 422.196 431.716 441.833 452.568 463.639 475.003 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 392.844 394.525 396.417 400.454 404.954 409.999 415.522 421.788 431.037 440.833 451.219 461.933 472.959
EU15 Baseline 349.097 350.630 352.381 356.137 360.425 365.191 370.333 376.085 384.404 393.172 402.436 411.977 421.776 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 349.097 350.630 352.381 355.880 359.670 363.836 368.439 373.718 381.567 389.904 398.785 407.986 417.464 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 349.097 350.630 352.381 355.987 360.056 364.704 369.880 375.785 384.271 393.272 402.821 412.674 422.773 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 349.097 350.630 352.381 356.022 360.111 364.685 369.689 375.345 383.571 392.270 401.495 411.018 420.805
EU10 Baseline 43.747 43.895 44.036 44.457 44.916 45.443 46.012 46.668 47.732 48.865 50.055 51.267 52.525 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 43.747 43.895 44.036 44.407 44.768 45.166 45.614 46.157 47.113 48.147 49.250 50.385 51.571 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 43.747 43.895 44.036 44.421 44.816 45.273 45.791 46.411 47.445 48.561 49.747 50.964 52.230 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 43.747 43.895 44.036 44.432 44.843 45.314 45.833 46.443 47.466 48.562 49.724 50.914 52.154
AT Baseline 8.089,5 8.168,6 8.259,9 8.390,7 8.558,7 8.744,3 8.941,3 9.155,0 9.396,8 9.644,4 9.896,1 10.146,5 10.397,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 8.089,5 8.168,6 8.259,9 8.384,1 8.536,8 8.703,9 8.883,8 9.081,4 9.307,8 9.540,7 9.778,8 10.017,1 10.256,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 8.089,5 8.168,6 8.259,9 8.387,0 8.547,0 8.726,0 8.919,4 9.131,4 9.372,6 9.620,8 9.874,6 10.128,6 10.383,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 8.089,5 8.168,6 8.259,9 8.387,6 8.547,3 8.723,5 8.912,1 9.117,8 9.351,9 9.592,1 9.837,3 10.082,4 10.328,9
BE Baseline 9.900,2 9.952,2 10.003,7 10.125,9 10.254,1 10.410,2 10.576,8 10.756,1 10.967,4 11.195,4 11.421,3 11.649,8 11.887,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.900,3 9.952,2 10.003,7 10.113,8 10.218,2 10.342,2 10.478,0 10.628,9 10.814,9 11.022,2 11.231,7 11.447,2 11.674,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.900,3 9.952,2 10.003,7 10.118,4 10.233,2 10.374,3 10.529,3 10.700,3 10.906,0 11.132,7 11.360,9 11.594,3 11.837,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.900,3 9.952,2 10.003,7 10.120,8 10.238,8 10.382,6 10.537,9 10.707,2 10.909,6 11.130,8 11.351,9 11.577,4 11.813,7
CZ Baseline 2.780,5 2.845,8 2.917,4 2.980,4 3.041,6 3.100,3 3.160,5 3.224,0 3.317,6 3.414,3 3.514,5 3.611,8 3.712,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.780,5 2.845,8 2.917,4 2.977,7 3.034,4 3.086,7 3.140,7 3.198,4 3.285,7 3.376,1 3.469,7 3.559,9 3.653,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.780,5 2.845,8 2.917,4 2.977,8 3.035,0 3.088,5 3.144,6 3.204,8 3.294,4 3.387,2 3.483,3 3.576,2 3.672,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.780,5 2.845,8 2.917,4 2.979,1 3.038,4 3.094,4 3.152,4 3.214,2 3.305,6 3.400,2 3.498,2 3.593,0 3.691,3
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 92.825,9 93.893,7 95.080,4 96.489,6 98.116,1 99.903,2 101.757,0 103.764,5 106.366,9 109.079,5 111.883,9 114.757,8 117.712,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 92.825,9 93.893,7 95.080,4 96.434,6 97.958,0 99.632,4 101.389,7 103.313,7 105.832,3 108.467,4 111.206,3 114.023,6 116.923,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 92.825,9 93.893,7 95.080,4 96.461,1 98.054,8 99.849,9 101.751,1 103.830,7 106.508,0 109.307,7 112.212,1 115.190,9 118.245,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 92.825,9 93.893,7 95.080,4 96.461,8 98.042,6 99.793,2 101.623,6 103.615,3 106.202,9 108.904,8 111.707,0 114.583,8 117.542,0
DK Baseline 4.007,7 3.974,8 3.953,0 3.927,2 3.907,7 3.897,3 3.892,0 3.897,9 3.961,5 4.031,4 4.111,9 4.193,5 4.276,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.007,7 3.974,8 3.953,0 3.918,8 3.885,3 3.857,1 3.834,8 3.825,0 3.873,4 3.929,0 3.997,0 4.067,4 4.140,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.007,7 3.974,8 3.953,0 3.919,3 3.887,6 3.862,8 3.845,1 3.840,6 3.894,5 3.956,1 4.029,8 4.105,7 4.183,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.007,7 3.974,8 3.953,0 3.921,4 3.893,0 3.871,9 3.856,5 3.853,0 3.907,9 3.969,8 4.043,7 4.119,7 4.197,8
ES Baseline 28.404,5 28.586,4 28.757,9 29.225,1 29.685,7 30.165,8 30.687,6 31.252,4 32.062,4 32.917,8 33.832,7 34.790,0 35.767,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 28.404,5 28.586,4 28.757,9 29.208,6 29.633,8 30.066,4 30.544,6 31.070,4 31.839,8 32.656,6 33.534,2 34.455,3 35.397,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 28.404,5 28.586,4 28.757,9 29.213,6 29.653,5 30.112,9 30.624,2 31.187,6 31.995,6 32.853,7 33.774,1 34.738,3 35.722,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 28.404,5 28.586,4 28.757,9 29.218,7 29.666,5 30.131,6 30.642,4 31.199,7 32.001,0 32.849,2 33.757,5 34.708,4 35.679,3
FI Baseline 6.205,0 6.209,2 6.217,5 6.291,2 6.358,6 6.433,3 6.512,9 6.606,9 6.759,6 6.929,0 7.118,5 7.328,8 7.562,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.205,0 6.209,2 6.217,5 6.282,5 6.333,0 6.386,2 6.443,5 6.514,5 6.643,7 6.789,5 6.957,2 7.148,1 7.364,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.205,0 6.209,2 6.217,5 6.283,8 6.338,2 6.398,9 6.465,4 6.547,4 6.688,7 6.848,2 7.030,5 7.236,2 7.466,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.205,0 6.209,2 6.217,5 6.284,6 6.340,5 6.401,7 6.467,4 6.547,0 6.685,6 6.841,0 7.018,1 7.217,5 7.441,3
FR Baseline 50.564,6 50.545,4 50.555,4 51.056,3 51.619,8 52.236,3 52.936,9 53.727,8 54.779,7 55.924,2 57.129,5 58.382,8 59.665,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 50.564,6 50.545,4 50.555,4 51.024,6 51.521,9 52.059,7 52.692,2 53.425,1 54.420,8 55.514,0 56.673,6 57.885,5 59.128,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 50.564,6 50.545,4 50.555,4 51.045,6 51.595,9 52.223,3 52.959,0 53.802,8 54.909,8 56.117,1 57.389,5 58.709,5 60.052,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 50.564,6 50.545,4 50.555,4 51.048,8 51.596,7 52.203,6 52.903,8 53.701,0 54.758,0 55.909,7 57.123,5 58.385,3 59.673,7
GR Baseline 4.045,0 3.996,2 3.948,8 3.972,2 3.983,2 3.994,2 4.006,2 4.027,1 4.124,5 4.226,3 4.337,1 4.450,0 4.561,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.045,0 3.996,2 3.948,8 3.969,7 3.973,6 3.974,5 3.976,8 3.988,7 4.076,7 4.169,4 4.271,4 4.376,0 4.479,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.045,0 3.996,2 3.948,8 3.969,6 3.973,5 3.975,1 3.978,9 3.993,0 4.083,2 4.178,4 4.283,2 4.390,7 4.497,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.045,0 3.996,2 3.948,8 3.970,5 3.977,0 3.981,8 3.988,2 4.004,0 4.096,3 4.193,3 4.299,9 4.408,9 4.517,3
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 2.092,5 2.144,5 2.200,9 2.223,9 2.253,4 2.281,1 2.308,1 2.334,4 2.386,9 2.438,3 2.490,7 2.543,9 2.601,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.092,5 2.144,5 2.200,9 2.222,3 2.249,1 2.272,7 2.295,5 2.317,5 2.364,8 2.410,4 2.456,7 2.503,8 2.554,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.092,5 2.144,5 2.200,9 2.222,1 2.248,9 2.272,7 2.296,1 2.319,0 2.367,1 2.413,7 2.461,2 2.509,8 2.562,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.092,5 2.144,5 2.200,9 2.223,0 2.251,1 2.276,7 2.301,8 2.326,1 2.376,2 2.425,0 2.474,7 2.525,4 2.580,5
IE Baseline 3.093,2 3.124,9 3.154,7 3.224,4 3.295,2 3.371,1 3.453,9 3.544,4 3.672,1 3.810,5 3.954,7 4.106,1 4.262,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.093,2 3.124,9 3.154,7 3.220,6 3.283,0 3.348,1 3.420,9 3.502,1 3.620,8 3.750,7 3.887,5 4.032,4 4.183,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.093,2 3.124,9 3.154,7 3.221,3 3.285,9 3.355,5 3.433,7 3.521,4 3.646,6 3.783,6 3.927,7 4.079,8 4.237,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.093,2 3.124,9 3.154,7 3.222,2 3.288,3 3.358,8 3.436,7 3.523,0 3.646,9 3.782,1 3.924,0 4.074,0 4.229,9
IT Baseline 56.392,2 56.264,4 56.156,5 56.269,2 56.492,5 56.762,4 57.057,4 57.423,2 58.176,7 58.942,5 59.782,1 60.624,3 61.486,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 56.392,2 56.264,4 56.156,5 56.231,8 56.383,3 56.561,2 56.774,2 57.069,0 57.752,0 58.454,5 59.235,5 60.025,0 60.836,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 56.392,2 56.264,4 56.156,5 56.245,5 56.431,4 56.669,5 56.954,1 57.328,4 58.091,6 58.878,5 59.744,9 60.618,3 61.510,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 56.392,2 56.264,4 56.156,5 56.255,4 56.453,6 56.696,4 56.973,0 57.328,5 58.070,9 58.830,1 59.665,4 60.505,3 61.365,3
LU Baseline 544,3 550,1 556,4 565,2 576,5 588,6 601,3 614,7 630,6 646,9 663,3 679,7 696,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 544,3 550,1 556,4 564,2 573,5 583,1 593,6 605,2 619,7 635,0 650,9 667,1 683,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 544,3 550,1 556,4 564,7 574,9 586,2 598,5 612,0 628,1 644,7 661,6 678,6 695,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 544,3 550,1 556,4 564,8 575,2 586,4 598,3 611,2 626,7 642,8 659,3 675,9 692,9
NL Baseline 12.129,3 12.206,3 12.267,6 12.391,6 12.533,8 12.687,9 12.850,6 13.037,0 13.347,9 13.679,0 14.028,9 14.391,4 14.768,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 12.129,3 12.206,3 12.267,6 12.376,9 12.489,8 12.604,6 12.730,3 12.882,6 13.159,4 13.458,3 13.778,6 14.113,7 14.465,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 12.129,3 12.206,3 12.267,6 12.380,9 12.504,2 12.637,4 12.785,1 12.962,4 13.265,2 13.591,9 13.941,0 14.305,2 14.685,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 12.129,3 12.206,3 12.267,6 12.384,9 12.514,4 12.653,0 12.802,2 12.977,1 13.276,9 13.598,4 13.940,6 14.296,9 14.669,3
PL Baseline 9.177,5 9.461,8 9.771,6 9.989,6 10.225,0 10.457,8 10.695,1 10.935,1 11.267,4 11.611,0 11.950,6 12.301,6 12.664,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.177,5 9.461,8 9.771,6 9.983,7 10.208,8 10.426,8 10.650,8 10.878,4 11.195,9 11.523,4 11.846,6 12.180,4 12.524,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.177,5 9.461,8 9.771,6 9.983,5 10.210,1 10.431,7 10.662,0 10.896,9 11.221,9 11.557,9 11.890,6 12.235,4 12.591,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.177,5 9.461,8 9.771,6 9.986,5 10.217,5 10.444,5 10.677,9 10.915,1 11.243,3 11.582,6 11.918,1 12.265,2 12.624,0
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 6.024,4 5.888,4 5.744,5 5.731,1 5.704,5 5.690,7 5.694,8 5.717,1 5.805,4 5.908,0 6.027,7 6.157,1 6.288,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 6.024,4 5.888,4 5.744,5 5.726,3 5.687,4 5.655,6 5.643,2 5.651,1 5.725,8 5.816,8 5.926,7 6.047,8 6.171,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 6.024,4 5.888,4 5.744,5 5.726,8 5.689,7 5.662,1 5.655,6 5.671,0 5.753,1 5.852,2 5.970,3 6.099,3 6.230,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 6.024,4 5.888,4 5.744,5 5.728,9 5.697,1 5.675,9 5.674,3 5.692,7 5.777,4 5.877,8 5.996,3 6.125,2 6.256,4
SE Baseline 9.797,9 9.839,3 9.889,1 9.965,5 10.060,2 10.170,7 10.296,7 10.447,2 10.700,4 10.968,3 11.257,6 11.547,9 11.852,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 9.797,9 9.839,3 9.889,1 9.953,7 10.028,2 10.114,7 10.218,3 10.348,4 10.581,8 10.830,9 11.103,6 11.379,0 11.669,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 9.797,9 9.839,3 9.889,1 9.956,4 10.038,1 10.137,1 10.255,2 10.401,3 10.650,9 10.917,2 11.207,5 11.500,7 11.808,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 9.797,9 9.839,3 9.889,1 9.957,9 10.041,2 10.139,7 10.254,7 10.395,2 10.639,2 10.898,6 11.181,4 11.466,4 11.766,2
SI Baseline 697,5 706,0 715,9 730,5 746,7 764,2 783,5 805,1 836,1 869,9 905,7 943,0 981,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 697,5 706,0 715,9 729,9 744,6 760,4 778,1 798,3 827,8 860,0 894,4 930,2 967,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 697,5 706,0 715,9 730,0 745,3 761,9 780,9 802,5 833,4 867,1 903,0 940,4 978,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 697,5 706,0 715,9 730,2 745,8 762,8 781,6 803,0 833,7 867,1 902,6 939,6 977,7
UK Baseline 57.072,9 57.429,9 57.835,6 58.511,5 59.278,6 60.135,6 61.067,6 62.113,4 63.651,8 65.268,8 66.990,5 68.771,4 70.590,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 57.072,9 57.429,9 57.835,6 58.469,6 59.164,5 59.946,0 60.815,8 61.812,0 63.298,0 64.868,9 66.552,3 68.301,1 70.090,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 57.072,9 57.429,9 57.835,6 58.492,8 59.247,8 60.133,1 61.124,8 62.254,9 63.876,9 65.589,2 67.413,6 69.298,2 71.215,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 57.072,9 57.429,9 57.835,6 58.493,8 59.238,5 60.085,2 61.017,7 62.072,5 63.619,7 65.249,8 66.989,7 68.791,2 70.630,4
Fix tax costs small and medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 0 81.116 83.857 87.363 91.450 94.042 93.298 94.705 94.887 95.357 101.038 100.964 100.782 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 81.116 83.857 87.363 91.450 94.042 93.298 94.705 94.887 95.357 101.038 100.964 100.782 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 81.116 83.857 87.363 91.450 94.042 93.298 94.705 94.887 95.357 101.038 100.964 100.782 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 81.116 83.857 87.363 91.450 94.042 93.298 94.705 94.887 95.357 101.038 100.964 100.782
EU15 Baseline 0 72.674 75.086 78.291 82.215 84.628 83.984 85.308 85.393 85.765 88.722 88.630 88.442 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 72.674 75.086 78.291 82.215 84.628 83.984 85.308 85.393 85.765 88.722 88.630 88.442 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 72.674 75.086 78.291 82.215 84.628 83.984 85.308 85.393 85.765 88.722 88.630 88.442 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 72.674 75.086 78.291 82.215 84.628 83.984 85.308 85.393 85.765 88.722 88.630 88.442
EU10 Baseline 0 8.442 8.771 9.071 9.235 9.414 9.314 9.397 9.494 9.591 12.317 12.334 12.340 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 8.442 8.771 9.071 9.235 9.414 9.314 9.397 9.494 9.591 12.317 12.334 12.340 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 8.442 8.771 9.071 9.235 9.414 9.314 9.397 9.494 9.591 12.317 12.334 12.340 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 8.442 8.771 9.071 9.235 9.414 9.314 9.397 9.494 9.591 12.317 12.334 12.340
AT Baseline 0,0 1.303,3 1.296,8 1.295,2 1.297,0 1.286,2 1.253,1 1.229,0 1.215,5 1.211,4 1.266,0 1.262,7 1.255,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.303,3 1.296,8 1.295,2 1.297,0 1.286,2 1.253,1 1.229,0 1.215,5 1.211,4 1.266,0 1.262,7 1.255,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.303,3 1.296,8 1.295,2 1.297,0 1.286,2 1.253,1 1.229,0 1.215,5 1.211,4 1.266,0 1.262,7 1.255,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.303,3 1.296,8 1.295,2 1.297,0 1.286,2 1.253,1 1.229,0 1.215,5 1.211,4 1.266,0 1.262,7 1.255,0
BE Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.148,5 2.149,5 2.146,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.148,5 2.149,5 2.146,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.148,5 2.149,5 2.146,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.148,5 2.149,5 2.146,3
CZ Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 546,1 549,6 559,2 569,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 546,1 549,6 559,2 569,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 546,1 549,6 559,2 569,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 546,1 549,6 559,2 569,7
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 0,0 19.584,7 19.297,6 19.180,3 19.913,7 21.058,0 21.849,2 22.679,7 22.673,0 22.627,4 22.571,8 22.546,5 22.467,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 19.584,7 19.297,6 19.180,3 19.913,7 21.058,0 21.849,2 22.679,7 22.673,0 22.627,4 22.571,8 22.546,5 22.467,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 19.584,7 19.297,6 19.180,3 19.913,7 21.058,0 21.849,2 22.679,7 22.673,0 22.627,4 22.571,8 22.546,5 22.467,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 19.584,7 19.297,6 19.180,3 19.913,7 21.058,0 21.849,2 22.679,7 22.673,0 22.627,4 22.571,8 22.546,5 22.467,8
DK Baseline 0,0 1.858,1 1.874,5 1.901,9 2.031,5 2.084,1 2.097,4 2.118,3 2.130,2 2.142,3 2.153,6 2.145,7 2.141,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.858,1 1.874,5 1.901,9 2.031,5 2.084,1 2.097,4 2.118,3 2.130,2 2.142,3 2.153,6 2.145,7 2.141,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.858,1 1.874,5 1.901,9 2.031,5 2.084,1 2.097,4 2.118,3 2.130,2 2.142,3 2.153,6 2.145,7 2.141,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.858,1 1.874,5 1.901,9 2.031,5 2.084,1 2.097,4 2.118,3 2.130,2 2.142,3 2.153,6 2.145,7 2.141,8
ES Baseline 0,0 3.508,0 3.690,9 3.950,1 4.225,4 4.414,2 4.416,0 4.679,1 4.693,2 4.818,9 5.219,7 5.249,2 5.280,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 3.508,0 3.690,9 3.950,1 4.225,4 4.414,2 4.416,0 4.679,1 4.693,2 4.818,9 5.219,7 5.249,2 5.280,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.508,0 3.690,9 3.950,1 4.225,4 4.414,2 4.416,0 4.679,1 4.693,2 4.818,9 5.219,7 5.249,2 5.280,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.508,0 3.690,9 3.950,1 4.225,4 4.414,2 4.416,0 4.679,1 4.693,2 4.818,9 5.219,7 5.249,2 5.280,9
FI Baseline 0,0 1.328,1 1.457,8 1.687,6 1.898,9 2.126,7 2.213,5 2.209,2 2.240,3 2.271,3 2.301,0 2.305,5 2.312,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.328,1 1.457,8 1.687,6 1.898,9 2.126,7 2.213,5 2.209,2 2.240,3 2.271,3 2.301,0 2.305,5 2.312,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.328,1 1.457,8 1.687,6 1.898,9 2.126,7 2.213,5 2.209,2 2.240,3 2.271,3 2.301,0 2.305,5 2.312,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.328,1 1.457,8 1.687,6 1.898,9 2.126,7 2.213,5 2.209,2 2.240,3 2.271,3 2.301,0 2.305,5 2.312,7
FR Baseline 0,0 11.822,8 11.974,8 12.261,0 12.461,4 12.341,6 11.917,8 11.897,7 11.875,1 11.875,0 11.894,8 11.761,4 11.634,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 11.822,8 11.974,8 12.261,0 12.461,4 12.341,6 11.917,8 11.897,7 11.875,1 11.875,0 11.894,8 11.761,4 11.634,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 11.822,8 11.974,8 12.261,0 12.461,4 12.341,6 11.917,8 11.897,7 11.875,1 11.875,0 11.894,8 11.761,4 11.634,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 11.822,8 11.974,8 12.261,0 12.461,4 12.341,6 11.917,8 11.897,7 11.875,1 11.875,0 11.894,8 11.761,4 11.634,5
GR Baseline 0,0 640,4 670,0 702,8 743,3 781,2 802,6 818,1 834,9 862,6 902,7 899,7 896,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 640,4 670,0 702,8 743,3 781,2 802,6 818,1 834,9 862,6 902,7 899,7 896,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 640,4 670,0 702,8 743,3 781,2 802,6 818,1 834,9 862,6 902,7 899,7 896,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 640,4 670,0 702,8 743,3 781,2 802,6 818,1 834,9 862,6 902,7 899,7 896,4
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 447,4 449,7 458,1 466,2 475,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 447,4 449,7 458,1 466,2 475,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 447,4 449,7 458,1 466,2 475,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 447,4 449,7 458,1 466,2 475,0
IE Baseline 0,0 460,5 512,1 553,7 596,1 630,6 608,2 660,9 683,4 705,7 728,3 738,0 747,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 460,5 512,1 553,7 596,1 630,6 608,2 660,9 683,4 705,7 728,3 738,0 747,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 460,5 512,1 553,7 596,1 630,6 608,2 660,9 683,4 705,7 728,3 738,0 747,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 460,5 512,1 553,7 596,1 630,6 608,2 660,9 683,4 705,7 728,3 738,0 747,5
IT Baseline 0,0 10.692,2 11.146,4 11.633,6 12.457,4 12.647,1 12.439,0 12.547,3 12.316,3 12.306,0 12.308,2 12.356,0 12.377,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 10.692,2 11.146,4 11.633,6 12.457,4 12.647,1 12.439,0 12.547,3 12.316,3 12.306,0 12.308,2 12.356,0 12.377,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 10.692,2 11.146,4 11.633,6 12.457,4 12.647,1 12.439,0 12.547,3 12.316,3 12.306,0 12.308,2 12.356,0 12.377,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 10.692,2 11.146,4 11.633,6 12.457,4 12.647,1 12.439,0 12.547,3 12.316,3 12.306,0 12.308,2 12.356,0 12.377,2
LU Baseline 0,0 72,8 74,9 77,5 83,2 84,3 81,0 78,6 77,9 77,2 83,2 82,2 81,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 72,8 74,9 77,5 83,2 84,3 81,0 78,6 77,9 77,2 83,2 82,2 81,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 72,8 74,9 77,5 83,2 84,3 81,0 78,6 77,9 77,2 83,2 82,2 81,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 72,8 74,9 77,5 83,2 84,3 81,0 78,6 77,9 77,2 83,2 82,2 81,1
NL Baseline 0,0 3.852,6 3.988,4 4.103,4 4.161,8 4.207,0 4.132,9 4.148,1 4.192,4 4.230,2 4.265,5 4.302,5 4.332,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 3.852,6 3.988,4 4.103,4 4.161,8 4.207,0 4.132,9 4.148,1 4.192,4 4.230,2 4.265,5 4.302,5 4.332,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.852,6 3.988,4 4.103,4 4.161,8 4.207,0 4.132,9 4.148,1 4.192,4 4.230,2 4.265,5 4.302,5 4.332,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.852,6 3.988,4 4.103,4 4.161,8 4.207,0 4.132,9 4.148,1 4.192,4 4.230,2 4.265,5 4.302,5 4.332,0
PL Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.665,6 1.657,1 1.778,3 1.819,0 1.862,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.665,6 1.657,1 1.778,3 1.819,0 1.862,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.665,6 1.657,1 1.778,3 1.819,0 1.862,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.665,6 1.657,1 1.778,3 1.819,0 1.862,1
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 0,0 1.317,2 1.336,0 1.415,3 1.365,3 1.182,0 1.138,2 1.395,6 1.401,3 1.404,1 1.483,6 1.458,5 1.434,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.317,2 1.336,0 1.415,3 1.365,3 1.182,0 1.138,2 1.395,6 1.401,3 1.404,1 1.483,6 1.458,5 1.434,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.317,2 1.336,0 1.415,3 1.365,3 1.182,0 1.138,2 1.395,6 1.401,3 1.404,1 1.483,6 1.458,5 1.434,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.317,2 1.336,0 1.415,3 1.365,3 1.182,0 1.138,2 1.395,6 1.401,3 1.404,1 1.483,6 1.458,5 1.434,2
SE Baseline 0,0 2.429,2 2.533,8 2.632,4 2.667,5 2.731,6 2.702,2 2.739,7 2.757,9 2.772,1 2.783,1 2.762,6 2.744,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.429,2 2.533,8 2.632,4 2.667,5 2.731,6 2.702,2 2.739,7 2.757,9 2.772,1 2.783,1 2.762,6 2.744,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.429,2 2.533,8 2.632,4 2.667,5 2.731,6 2.702,2 2.739,7 2.757,9 2.772,1 2.783,1 2.762,6 2.744,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.429,2 2.533,8 2.632,4 2.667,5 2.731,6 2.702,2 2.739,7 2.757,9 2.772,1 2.783,1 2.762,6 2.744,0
SI Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 88,8 90,1 91,5 92,9 94,1 96,0 97,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 88,8 90,1 91,5 92,9 94,1 96,0 97,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 88,8 90,1 91,5 92,9 94,1 96,0 97,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 88,8 90,1 91,5 92,9 94,1 96,0 97,6
UK Baseline 0,0 13.804,3 15.232,1 16.896,7 18.312,4 19.053,2 18.332,4 18.106,6 18.301,5 18.461,0 18.611,8 18.609,7 18.590,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 13.804,3 15.232,1 16.896,7 18.312,4 19.053,2 18.332,4 18.106,6 18.301,5 18.461,0 18.611,8 18.609,7 18.590,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 13.804,3 15.232,1 16.896,7 18.312,4 19.053,2 18.332,4 18.106,6 18.301,5 18.461,0 18.611,8 18.609,7 18.590,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 13.804,3 15.232,1 16.896,7 18.312,4 19.053,2 18.332,4 18.106,6 18.301,5 18.461,0 18.611,8 18.609,7 18.590,5
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 100.399 99.898 99.292 98.994 98.730 98.615 98.623 98.764 99.101 99.571 100.155 100.858 101.676 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 100.399 99.898 99.292 98.881 98.282 97.518 96.932 96.551 96.447 96.549 96.830 97.286 97.908 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 100.399 99.898 99.292 98.866 98.231 97.419 96.781 96.341 96.174 96.210 96.424 96.812 97.369 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 100.399 99.898 99.292 99.019 98.712 98.414 98.283 98.336 98.637 99.118 99.753 100.540 101.471
EU15 Baseline 88.076 87.609 87.054 86.775 86.551 86.448 86.454 86.576 86.866 87.265 87.768 88.375 89.079 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 88.076 87.609 87.054 86.672 86.141 85.458 84.928 84.575 84.460 84.517 84.736 85.108 85.625 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 88.076 87.609 87.054 86.658 86.098 85.374 84.801 84.400 84.233 84.236 84.399 84.717 85.181 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 88.076 87.609 87.054 86.793 86.522 86.249 86.122 86.154 86.400 86.796 87.333 88.002 88.796
EU10 Baseline 12.323 12.289 12.238 12.218 12.180 12.167 12.168 12.188 12.235 12.306 12.387 12.483 12.596 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 12.323 12.289 12.238 12.210 12.140 12.061 12.004 11.976 11.987 12.031 12.095 12.178 12.283 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 12.323 12.289 12.238 12.207 12.133 12.045 11.980 11.941 11.941 11.974 12.024 12.096 12.188 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 12.323 12.289 12.238 12.226 12.190 12.165 12.161 12.182 12.237 12.322 12.421 12.538 12.674
AT Baseline 1.243,2 1.228,0 1.209,9 1.192,6 1.177,1 1.164,5 1.155,3 1.150,0 1.148,4 1.149,7 1.153,5 1.159,2 1.166,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.243,2 1.228,0 1.209,9 1.190,2 1.171,1 1.150,7 1.134,7 1.123,6 1.117,4 1.114,9 1.115,5 1.118,4 1.123,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.243,2 1.228,0 1.209,9 1.190,2 1.171,1 1.150,8 1.135,0 1.124,0 1.117,8 1.115,1 1.115,4 1.118,0 1.122,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.243,2 1.228,0 1.209,9 1.192,3 1.177,6 1.164,2 1.154,8 1.149,9 1.149,3 1.152,0 1.157,4 1.165,0 1.174,5
BE Baseline 2.138,4 2.127,1 2.113,0 2.105,0 2.082,5 2.075,2 2.072,2 2.073,3 2.077,9 2.090,7 2.100,4 2.112,4 2.126,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.138,4 2.127,1 2.113,0 2.098,9 2.068,5 2.044,8 2.026,6 2.014,5 2.009,1 2.015,2 2.020,9 2.030,2 2.042,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.138,4 2.127,1 2.113,0 2.099,4 2.070,1 2.048,1 2.031,5 2.020,8 2.016,3 2.022,9 2.028,8 2.038,1 2.050,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.138,4 2.127,1 2.113,0 2.103,4 2.082,2 2.072,7 2.068,7 2.069,7 2.075,9 2.091,8 2.105,8 2.122,3 2.141,4
CZ Baseline 581,0 592,9 605,1 612,3 620,9 630,1 639,9 650,7 663,0 676,3 690,7 705,8 721,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 581,0 592,9 605,1 611,4 618,4 624,8 631,8 639,9 649,4 660,2 672,1 684,8 698,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 581,0 592,9 605,1 611,4 618,3 624,7 631,6 639,4 648,9 659,5 671,3 683,8 697,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 581,0 592,9 605,1 611,9 619,7 627,5 636,0 645,4 656,4 668,5 681,8 695,8 710,8
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 22.328,1 22.160,4 21.970,2 21.814,5 21.687,1 21.593,7 21.529,6 21.498,1 21.517,4 21.563,4 21.635,6 21.731,6 21.849,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 22.328,1 22.160,4 21.970,2 21.796,2 21.591,3 21.339,1 21.132,1 20.976,7 20.891,8 20.850,5 20.850,0 20.886,3 20.957,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 22.328,1 22.160,4 21.970,2 21.788,0 21.566,6 21.291,4 21.061,9 20.883,3 20.774,7 20.709,6 20.685,5 20.698,9 20.747,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 22.328,1 22.160,4 21.970,2 21.831,3 21.700,2 21.564,2 21.470,0 21.421,6 21.436,9 21.490,3 21.579,2 21.700,3 21.851,4
DK Baseline 2.137,7 2.135,4 2.136,1 2.127,3 2.115,5 2.101,2 2.084,5 2.066,7 2.051,8 2.040,2 2.033,7 2.032,5 2.036,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.137,7 2.135,4 2.136,1 2.128,2 2.114,5 2.094,4 2.072,5 2.050,7 2.033,4 2.020,9 2.014,6 2.014,2 2.018,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.137,7 2.135,4 2.136,1 2.128,1 2.114,0 2.093,2 2.070,4 2.047,7 2.029,5 2.016,2 2.009,2 2.008,3 2.012,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.137,7 2.135,4 2.136,1 2.129,8 2.119,5 2.105,2 2.089,5 2.074,1 2.062,6 2.055,1 2.053,0 2.055,8 2.062,7
ES Baseline 5.303,9 5.318,7 5.324,8 5.370,0 5.413,5 5.459,7 5.508,7 5.561,3 5.621,4 5.684,7 5.752,2 5.823,8 5.898,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 5.303,9 5.318,7 5.324,8 5.361,7 5.386,8 5.402,0 5.420,5 5.444,0 5.477,0 5.515,3 5.559,8 5.610,7 5.666,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 5.303,9 5.318,7 5.324,8 5.361,8 5.387,0 5.402,5 5.421,2 5.444,4 5.477,0 5.514,5 5.558,1 5.607,9 5.663,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 5.303,9 5.318,7 5.324,8 5.366,8 5.403,4 5.437,4 5.475,0 5.517,1 5.568,4 5.624,5 5.686,4 5.754,1 5.826,5
FI Baseline 2.318,4 2.323,3 2.326,9 2.348,4 2.361,4 2.369,3 2.370,1 2.363,5 2.352,5 2.338,4 2.326,2 2.321,1 2.326,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.318,4 2.323,3 2.326,9 2.350,2 2.362,4 2.363,8 2.357,8 2.345,4 2.330,4 2.314,8 2.303,9 2.301,9 2.311,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.318,4 2.323,3 2.326,9 2.349,6 2.360,2 2.358,9 2.350,1 2.334,8 2.317,1 2.299,0 2.285,5 2.280,9 2.287,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.318,4 2.323,3 2.326,9 2.351,3 2.367,1 2.375,1 2.376,9 2.373,3 2.367,8 2.361,8 2.359,7 2.365,3 2.380,5
FR Baseline 11.494,7 11.346,5 11.192,3 11.127,1 11.073,7 11.042,3 11.032,7 11.043,3 11.075,0 11.123,3 11.186,0 11.261,8 11.347,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 11.494,7 11.346,5 11.192,3 11.102,0 11.001,3 10.889,5 10.805,3 10.748,9 10.722,2 10.720,0 10.739,4 10.778,6 10.834,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 11.494,7 11.346,5 11.192,3 11.105,8 11.012,6 10.913,2 10.840,1 10.794,2 10.777,0 10.783,5 10.811,0 10.857,8 10.920,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 11.494,7 11.346,5 11.192,3 11.120,2 11.057,8 11.005,5 10.978,5 10.976,4 11.000,2 11.045,0 11.108,0 11.187,6 11.280,7
GR Baseline 893,7 891,7 890,4 903,1 915,9 929,0 942,4 956,3 971,6 987,2 1.003,2 1.019,6 1.036,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 893,7 891,7 890,4 903,2 915,9 928,7 941,8 955,4 970,5 985,9 1.001,8 1.018,0 1.034,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 893,7 891,7 890,4 903,2 916,1 929,1 942,3 956,0 971,2 986,7 1.002,7 1.019,0 1.035,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 893,7 891,7 890,4 903,3 916,3 929,6 943,2 957,3 972,8 988,7 1.005,1 1.021,8 1.038,7
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 484,4 494,4 505,0 510,1 516,2 522,4 528,9 535,6 543,1 550,7 558,7 567,0 575,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 484,4 494,4 505,0 509,6 514,5 518,9 523,6 528,4 534,1 539,9 546,1 553,0 560,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 484,4 494,4 505,0 509,5 514,3 518,6 523,1 527,7 533,1 538,7 544,6 551,2 558,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 484,4 494,4 505,0 509,9 515,4 520,8 526,5 532,4 539,2 546,2 553,8 562,1 570,8
IE Baseline 755,2 762,1 768,0 781,7 795,2 809,3 824,1 839,7 857,0 875,2 894,4 914,7 935,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 755,2 762,1 768,0 782,6 796,0 808,2 821,6 836,0 852,5 870,3 889,2 909,3 930,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 755,2 762,1 768,0 782,3 794,9 805,9 817,9 831,0 846,0 862,3 879,7 898,4 918,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 755,2 762,1 768,0 783,1 797,6 811,8 827,0 843,3 861,4 880,8 901,1 922,6 945,2
IT Baseline 12.379,4 12.362,4 12.326,2 12.273,8 12.228,0 12.186,6 12.151,0 12.123,0 12.106,5 12.096,6 12.096,2 12.103,0 12.117,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 12.379,4 12.362,4 12.326,2 12.258,2 12.180,6 12.083,4 11.995,1 11.919,0 11.860,5 11.814,4 11.783,1 11.764,1 11.757,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 12.379,4 12.362,4 12.326,2 12.260,3 12.186,5 12.095,1 12.011,6 11.939,4 11.884,1 11.840,6 11.811,5 11.794,3 11.789,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 12.379,4 12.362,4 12.326,2 12.270,6 12.218,0 12.160,6 12.111,5 12.073,1 12.050,2 12.037,7 12.038,2 12.048,9 12.070,6
LU Baseline 79,8 78,4 77,1 76,2 75,3 74,8 74,5 74,5 74,7 75,1 75,6 76,1 76,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 79,8 78,4 77,1 75,9 74,5 72,9 71,6 70,8 70,4 70,4 70,6 71,0 71,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 79,8 78,4 77,1 75,9 74,5 72,8 71,6 70,7 70,3 70,2 70,4 70,8 71,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 79,8 78,4 77,1 76,2 75,5 74,8 74,5 74,4 74,7 75,1 75,7 76,4 77,2
NL Baseline 4.355,8 4.373,5 4.384,4 4.393,5 4.405,9 4.423,9 4.448,6 4.481,0 4.523,3 4.571,5 4.624,6 4.682,2 4.744,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.355,8 4.373,5 4.384,4 4.390,8 4.392,3 4.388,3 4.393,9 4.410,8 4.441,3 4.480,4 4.526,3 4.578,1 4.635,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.355,8 4.373,5 4.384,4 4.389,6 4.388,2 4.379,3 4.379,7 4.390,7 4.414,9 4.447,3 4.486,3 4.531,3 4.582,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.355,8 4.373,5 4.384,4 4.395,4 4.407,0 4.419,0 4.439,9 4.470,7 4.513,5 4.563,8 4.620,5 4.682,8 4.751,0
PL Baseline 1.908,2 1.956,8 2.008,3 2.053,0 2.104,1 2.158,6 2.215,5 2.272,8 2.331,4 2.388,7 2.445,3 2.503,4 2.562,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.908,2 1.956,8 2.008,3 2.049,4 2.093,6 2.136,8 2.181,7 2.226,3 2.271,8 2.315,5 2.357,9 2.401,4 2.444,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.908,2 1.956,8 2.008,3 2.048,7 2.091,6 2.132,5 2.175,1 2.217,3 2.260,1 2.300,9 2.340,0 2.379,7 2.419,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.908,2 1.956,8 2.008,3 2.050,8 2.097,7 2.145,5 2.195,2 2.244,9 2.295,7 2.344,8 2.392,7 2.441,8 2.491,3
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 1.407,0 1.377,0 1.345,0 1.337,1 1.330,5 1.329,2 1.333,4 1.342,3 1.354,5 1.368,1 1.382,7 1.397,9 1.413,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.407,0 1.377,0 1.345,0 1.335,1 1.323,4 1.314,3 1.310,9 1.312,7 1.318,4 1.326,2 1.335,5 1.346,1 1.357,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.407,0 1.377,0 1.345,0 1.335,2 1.323,7 1.314,9 1.311,7 1.313,5 1.319,1 1.326,8 1.335,9 1.346,2 1.357,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.407,0 1.377,0 1.345,0 1.336,2 1.327,4 1.322,7 1.323,8 1.329,7 1.339,2 1.350,4 1.363,0 1.376,5 1.390,8
SE Baseline 2.716,7 2.684,8 2.647,6 2.617,5 2.583,2 2.548,6 2.514,8 2.483,6 2.460,0 2.441,3 2.428,8 2.422,2 2.421,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.716,7 2.684,8 2.647,6 2.619,0 2.578,3 2.528,1 2.481,0 2.439,3 2.408,1 2.384,3 2.368,5 2.360,0 2.358,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.716,7 2.684,8 2.647,6 2.617,9 2.574,7 2.520,6 2.469,7 2.424,2 2.389,0 2.361,3 2.341,9 2.329,9 2.325,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.716,7 2.684,8 2.647,6 2.622,8 2.590,6 2.553,8 2.520,2 2.491,4 2.472,1 2.459,3 2.453,8 2.454,7 2.462,0
SI Baseline 99,1 100,5 101,8 103,5 105,2 107,0 109,0 111,1 113,7 116,5 119,4 122,6 125,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 99,1 100,5 101,8 103,3 104,6 105,7 107,0 108,5 110,5 112,8 115,4 118,2 121,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 99,1 100,5 101,8 103,2 104,4 105,4 106,5 107,8 109,6 111,8 114,2 116,9 119,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 99,1 100,5 101,8 103,4 104,9 106,3 107,9 109,8 112,1 114,7 117,5 120,6 123,8
UK Baseline 18.524,0 18.439,2 18.342,3 18.307,6 18.305,8 18.341,1 18.412,3 18.519,2 18.674,1 18.859,7 19.075,1 19.316,7 19.581,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 18.524,0 18.439,2 18.342,3 18.279,5 18.184,1 18.049,5 17.962,6 17.927,0 17.957,0 18.034,2 18.156,8 18.321,0 18.523,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 18.524,0 18.439,2 18.342,3 18.271,1 18.158,1 17.998,2 17.886,3 17.824,9 17.828,8 17.880,1 17.977,3 18.117,0 18.296,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 18.524,0 18.439,2 18.342,3 18.310,3 18.281,4 18.252,1 18.268,6 18.331,8 18.454,9 18.620,1 18.825,8 19.067,9 19.343,2
variable tax costs small and medium/big cars 1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU25 Baseline 0 111.971 113.836 116.864 120.434 121.057 119.372 121.416 120.979 121.133 126.783 126.087 125.235 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 111.971 113.836 116.864 120.434 121.057 119.372 121.416 120.979 121.133 126.783 126.087 125.235 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 111.971 113.836 116.864 120.434 121.057 119.372 121.416 120.979 121.133 126.783 126.087 125.235 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 111.971 113.836 116.864 120.434 121.057 119.372 121.416 120.979 121.133 126.783 126.087 125.235
EU15 Baseline 0 101.443 102.980 105.735 109.279 109.848 108.364 110.364 109.891 109.993 112.770 112.158 111.398 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 101.443 102.980 105.735 109.279 109.848 108.364 110.364 109.891 109.993 112.770 112.158 111.398 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 101.443 102.980 105.735 109.279 109.848 108.364 110.364 109.891 109.993 112.770 112.158 111.398 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 101.443 102.980 105.735 109.279 109.848 108.364 110.364 109.891 109.993 112.770 112.158 111.398
EU10 Baseline 0 10.528 10.856 11.129 11.155 11.210 11.008 11.052 11.088 11.140 14.013 13.928 13.836 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0 10.528 10.856 11.129 11.155 11.210 11.008 11.052 11.088 11.140 14.013 13.928 13.836 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0 10.528 10.856 11.129 11.155 11.210 11.008 11.052 11.088 11.140 14.013 13.928 13.836 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0 10.528 10.856 11.129 11.155 11.210 11.008 11.052 11.088 11.140 14.013 13.928 13.836
AT Baseline 0,0 1.746,0 1.684,9 1.637,0 1.599,5 1.549,5 1.509,3 1.474,5 1.452,1 1.440,3 1.486,6 1.474,2 1.456,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.746,0 1.684,9 1.637,0 1.599,5 1.549,5 1.509,3 1.474,5 1.452,1 1.440,3 1.486,6 1.474,2 1.456,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.746,0 1.684,9 1.637,0 1.599,5 1.549,5 1.509,3 1.474,5 1.452,1 1.440,3 1.486,6 1.474,2 1.456,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.746,0 1.684,9 1.637,0 1.599,5 1.549,5 1.509,3 1.474,5 1.452,1 1.440,3 1.486,6 1.474,2 1.456,1
BE Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.316,6 2.298,8 2.281,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.316,6 2.298,8 2.281,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.316,6 2.298,8 2.281,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2.316,6 2.298,8 2.281,6
CZ Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 693,9 670,8 676,7 683,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 693,9 670,8 676,7 683,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 693,9 670,8 676,7 683,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 693,9 670,8 676,7 683,9
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 DE Baseline 0,0 23.874,4 23.437,6 23.227,7 24.117,5 25.530,9 26.543,0 27.601,8 27.546,5 27.432,0 27.294,5 27.194,5 27.021,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 23.874,4 23.437,6 23.227,7 24.117,5 25.530,9 26.543,0 27.601,8 27.546,5 27.432,0 27.294,5 27.194,5 27.021,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 23.874,4 23.437,6 23.227,7 24.117,5 25.530,9 26.543,0 27.601,8 27.546,5 27.432,0 27.294,5 27.194,5 27.021,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 23.874,4 23.437,6 23.227,7 24.117,5 25.530,9 26.543,0 27.601,8 27.546,5 27.432,0 27.294,5 27.194,5 27.021,5
DK Baseline 0,0 1.669,5 1.692,5 1.732,3 1.951,7 2.006,7 2.019,5 2.043,6 2.046,8 2.043,3 2.036,9 2.008,9 1.983,4 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.669,5 1.692,5 1.732,3 1.951,7 2.006,7 2.019,5 2.043,6 2.046,8 2.043,3 2.036,9 2.008,9 1.983,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.669,5 1.692,5 1.732,3 1.951,7 2.006,7 2.019,5 2.043,6 2.046,8 2.043,3 2.036,9 2.008,9 1.983,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.669,5 1.692,5 1.732,3 1.951,7 2.006,7 2.019,5 2.043,6 2.046,8 2.043,3 2.036,9 2.008,9 1.983,4
ES Baseline 0,0 6.149,8 6.104,6 6.228,5 6.364,5 6.337,7 6.320,6 6.706,0 6.669,9 6.821,8 7.246,0 7.252,7 7.261,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 6.149,8 6.104,6 6.228,5 6.364,5 6.337,7 6.320,6 6.706,0 6.669,9 6.821,8 7.246,0 7.252,7 7.261,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.149,8 6.104,6 6.228,5 6.364,5 6.337,7 6.320,6 6.706,0 6.669,9 6.821,8 7.246,0 7.252,7 7.261,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 6.149,8 6.104,6 6.228,5 6.364,5 6.337,7 6.320,6 6.706,0 6.669,9 6.821,8 7.246,0 7.252,7 7.261,9
FI Baseline 0,0 2.330,5 2.068,7 2.073,6 2.073,9 2.145,9 2.101,5 2.077,1 2.093,7 2.106,4 2.116,9 2.102,9 2.092,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.330,5 2.068,7 2.073,6 2.073,9 2.145,9 2.101,5 2.077,1 2.093,7 2.106,4 2.116,9 2.102,9 2.092,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.330,5 2.068,7 2.073,6 2.073,9 2.145,9 2.101,5 2.077,1 2.093,7 2.106,4 2.116,9 2.102,9 2.092,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.330,5 2.068,7 2.073,6 2.073,9 2.145,9 2.101,5 2.077,1 2.093,7 2.106,4 2.116,9 2.102,9 2.092,1
FR Baseline 0,0 16.247,2 16.297,6 16.547,7 16.616,5 16.199,0 15.625,0 15.600,8 15.517,8 15.490,6 15.470,5 15.251,1 15.035,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 16.247,2 16.297,6 16.547,7 16.616,5 16.199,0 15.625,0 15.600,8 15.517,8 15.490,6 15.470,5 15.251,1 15.035,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 16.247,2 16.297,6 16.547,7 16.616,5 16.199,0 15.625,0 15.600,8 15.517,8 15.490,6 15.470,5 15.251,1 15.035,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 16.247,2 16.297,6 16.547,7 16.616,5 16.199,0 15.625,0 15.600,8 15.517,8 15.490,6 15.470,5 15.251,1 15.035,5
GR Baseline 0,0 1.140,4 1.133,0 1.134,3 1.128,4 1.131,5 1.145,6 1.135,7 1.128,4 1.156,2 1.194,4 1.177,9 1.166,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 1.140,4 1.133,0 1.134,3 1.128,4 1.131,5 1.145,6 1.135,7 1.128,4 1.156,2 1.194,4 1.177,9 1.166,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.140,4 1.133,0 1.134,3 1.128,4 1.131,5 1.145,6 1.135,7 1.128,4 1.156,2 1.194,4 1.177,9 1.166,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 1.140,4 1.133,0 1.134,3 1.128,4 1.131,5 1.145,6 1.135,7 1.128,4 1.156,2 1.194,4 1.177,9 1.166,7
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 HU Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 626,4 593,3 593,8 597,0 601,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 626,4 593,3 593,8 597,0 601,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 626,4 593,3 593,8 597,0 601,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 626,4 593,3 593,8 597,0 601,8
IE Baseline 0,0 543,2 621,0 657,1 689,5 699,2 638,2 725,1 744,7 760,7 775,5 775,6 775,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 543,2 621,0 657,1 689,5 699,2 638,2 725,1 744,7 760,7 775,5 775,6 775,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 543,2 621,0 657,1 689,5 699,2 638,2 725,1 744,7 760,7 775,5 775,6 775,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 543,2 621,0 657,1 689,5 699,2 638,2 725,1 744,7 760,7 775,5 775,6 775,9
IT Baseline 0,0 18.859,2 18.775,5 18.733,8 19.347,1 18.630,3 18.246,5 18.390,8 17.825,2 17.718,8 17.606,1 17.560,6 17.457,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 18.859,2 18.775,5 18.733,8 19.347,1 18.630,3 18.246,5 18.390,8 17.825,2 17.718,8 17.606,1 17.560,6 17.457,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 18.859,2 18.775,5 18.733,8 19.347,1 18.630,3 18.246,5 18.390,8 17.825,2 17.718,8 17.606,1 17.560,6 17.457,6 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 18.859,2 18.775,5 18.733,8 19.347,1 18.630,3 18.246,5 18.390,8 17.825,2 17.718,8 17.606,1 17.560,6 17.457,6
LU Baseline 0,0 112,9 108,9 106,4 109,4 106,0 102,4 99,5 98,6 97,5 103,2 101,8 100,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 112,9 108,9 106,4 109,4 106,0 102,4 99,5 98,6 97,5 103,2 101,8 100,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 112,9 108,9 106,4 109,4 106,0 102,4 99,5 98,6 97,5 103,2 101,8 100,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 112,9 108,9 106,4 109,4 106,0 102,4 99,5 98,6 97,5 103,2 101,8 100,2
NL Baseline 0,0 4.344,6 4.547,4 4.704,2 4.746,0 4.764,8 4.622,4 4.622,8 4.640,3 4.641,8 4.634,1 4.627,2 4.606,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 4.344,6 4.547,4 4.704,2 4.746,0 4.764,8 4.622,4 4.622,8 4.640,3 4.641,8 4.634,1 4.627,2 4.606,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 4.344,6 4.547,4 4.704,2 4.746,0 4.764,8 4.622,4 4.622,8 4.640,3 4.641,8 4.634,1 4.627,2 4.606,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 4.344,6 4.547,4 4.704,2 4.746,0 4.764,8 4.622,4 4.622,8 4.640,3 4.641,8 4.634,1 4.627,2 4.606,7
PL Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.975,0 1.872,3 1.973,1 1.993,5 2.018,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.975,0 1.872,3 1.973,1 1.993,5 2.018,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.975,0 1.872,3 1.973,1 1.993,5 2.018,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.975,0 1.872,3 1.973,1 1.993,5 2.018,3
1995-2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 PT Baseline 0,0 2.040,9 2.108,7 2.285,2 2.151,4 1.625,6 1.508,2 2.256,7 2.265,3 2.267,2 2.347,2 2.302,8 2.261,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 2.040,9 2.108,7 2.285,2 2.151,4 1.625,6 1.508,2 2.256,7 2.265,3 2.267,2 2.347,2 2.302,8 2.261,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.040,9 2.108,7 2.285,2 2.151,4 1.625,6 1.508,2 2.256,7 2.265,3 2.267,2 2.347,2 2.302,8 2.261,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 2.040,9 2.108,7 2.285,2 2.151,4 1.625,6 1.508,2 2.256,7 2.265,3 2.267,2 2.347,2 2.302,8 2.261,8
SE Baseline 0,0 3.148,0 3.221,2 3.287,0 3.272,4 3.295,5 3.258,9 3.303,9 3.323,5 3.336,8 3.345,6 3.317,4 3.290,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 3.148,0 3.221,2 3.287,0 3.272,4 3.295,5 3.258,9 3.303,9 3.323,5 3.336,8 3.345,6 3.317,4 3.290,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.148,0 3.221,2 3.287,0 3.272,4 3.295,5 3.258,9 3.303,9 3.323,5 3.336,8 3.345,6 3.317,4 3.290,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 3.148,0 3.221,2 3.287,0 3.272,4 3.295,5 3.258,9 3.303,9 3.323,5 3.336,8 3.345,6 3.317,4 3.290,9
SI Baseline 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 98,9 100,0 101,2 102,2 102,9 104,3 105,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 98,9 100,0 101,2 102,2 102,9 104,3 105,2 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 98,9 100,0 101,2 102,2 102,9 104,3 105,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 98,9 100,0 101,2 102,2 102,9 104,3 105,2
UK Baseline 0,0 19.236,4 21.178,5 23.380,6 25.111,3 25.824,8 24.722,4 24.326,1 24.537,9 24.680,1 24.795,9 24.712,1 24.606,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 0,0 19.236,4 21.178,5 23.380,6 25.111,3 25.824,8 24.722,4 24.326,1 24.537,9 24.680,1 24.795,9 24.712,1 24.606,3 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 19.236,4 21.178,5 23.380,6 25.111,3 25.824,8 24.722,4 24.326,1 24.537,9 24.680,1 24.795,9 24.712,1 24.606,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 0,0 19.236,4 21.178,5 23.380,6 25.111,3 25.824,8 24.722,4 24.326,1 24.537,9 24.680,1 24.795,9 24.712,1 24.606,3
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU25 Baseline 124.110 122.803 121.329 120.290 119.338 118.608 118.062 117.717 117.711 117.895 118.242 118.751 119.406 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 124.110 122.803 121.330 120.078 118.515 116.696 115.140 113.888 113.094 112.601 112.374 112.400 112.663 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 124.110 122.803 121.330 119.967 118.182 116.037 114.170 112.607 111.503 110.703 110.173 109.906 109.887 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 124.110 122.803 121.330 120.237 119.025 117.767 116.763 116.035 115.728 115.690 115.888 116.312 116.947
EU15 Baseline 110.394 109.229 107.922 107.001 106.189 105.566 105.110 104.832 104.848 105.025 105.350 105.816 106.408 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 110.394 109.229 107.922 106.807 105.441 103.840 102.474 101.376 100.679 100.238 100.036 100.058 100.288 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 110.394 109.229 107.922 106.706 105.140 103.243 101.597 100.220 99.245 98.530 98.059 97.821 97.801 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 110.394 109.229 107.922 106.947 105.891 104.784 103.904 103.269 103.002 102.964 103.139 103.515 104.075
EU10 Baseline 13.716 13.573 13.408 13.289 13.148 13.041 12.952 12.885 12.862 12.870 12.893 12.935 12.998 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 13.716 13.573 13.408 13.271 13.073 12.857 12.667 12.512 12.415 12.363 12.338 12.342 12.375 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 13.716 13.573 13.408 13.261 13.042 12.794 12.573 12.386 12.258 12.173 12.114 12.086 12.086 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 13.716 13.573 13.408 13.290 13.134 12.983 12.859 12.766 12.726 12.726 12.749 12.797 12.872
AT Baseline 1.433,4 1.407,1 1.378,4 1.352,0 1.329,2 1.310,7 1.296,5 1.286,8 1.282,0 1.280,1 1.280,5 1.282,8 1.286,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.433,4 1.407,1 1.378,4 1.350,2 1.322,9 1.294,6 1.271,9 1.254,9 1.244,1 1.237,1 1.233,2 1.231,8 1.232,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.433,4 1.407,1 1.378,4 1.349,5 1.320,9 1.290,9 1.266,8 1.248,3 1.235,7 1.226,7 1.220,6 1.216,9 1.215,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.433,4 1.407,1 1.378,4 1.352,6 1.330,2 1.309,7 1.294,3 1.284,3 1.279,8 1.278,8 1.280,5 1.284,5 1.290,7
BE Baseline 2.260,4 2.236,0 2.208,3 2.189,4 2.152,9 2.135,5 2.123,3 2.116,0 2.113,9 2.122,1 2.126,1 2.132,6 2.141,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.260,5 2.236,0 2.208,3 2.182,0 2.134,0 2.094,5 2.061,7 2.035,9 2.019,0 2.016,1 2.012,6 2.013,6 2.018,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.260,5 2.236,0 2.208,3 2.181,0 2.131,5 2.089,8 2.055,1 2.027,1 2.007,6 2.001,7 1.995,0 1.992,9 1.995,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.260,5 2.236,0 2.208,3 2.186,8 2.148,6 2.124,7 2.107,2 2.095,9 2.091,6 2.099,7 2.105,3 2.114,4 2.127,0
CZ Baseline 691,6 699,6 707,3 709,4 714,5 720,4 727,1 735,2 746,3 758,6 772,0 786,0 801,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 691,6 699,6 707,3 707,2 708,4 708,0 708,3 709,9 714,5 720,2 726,8 733,5 741,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 691,6 699,6 707,3 706,4 706,2 703,9 702,3 701,9 704,4 707,8 711,9 715,9 720,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 691,6 699,6 707,3 707,8 710,2 711,9 714,4 718,1 724,8 732,6 741,3 750,2 760,0
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DE Baseline 26.777,7 26.496,8 26.186,4 25.922,5 25.699,7 25.521,7 25.381,8 25.284,1 25.255,3 25.260,7 25.299,3 25.367,8 25.464,1 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 26.777,7 26.496,8 26.186,4 25.891,0 25.551,6 25.151,0 24.809,4 24.534,3 24.353,8 24.230,4 24.160,1 24.138,4 24.162,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 26.777,7 26.496,8 26.186,4 25.865,2 25.476,5 25.005,1 24.597,7 24.256,6 24.010,7 23.822,3 23.688,3 23.604,8 23.569,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 26.777,7 26.496,8 26.186,4 25.927,6 25.667,6 25.393,8 25.175,7 25.017,2 24.945,5 24.924,2 24.950,2 25.019,6 25.129,3
DK Baseline 1.953,3 1.920,4 1.886,0 1.846,9 1.807,2 1.768,8 1.732,0 1.697,9 1.669,9 1.645,1 1.624,4 1.607,5 1.594,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.953,3 1.920,4 1.886,0 1.849,5 1.806,6 1.759,0 1.714,8 1.675,4 1.644,1 1.617,7 1.596,3 1.579,3 1.566,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.953,3 1.920,4 1.886,0 1.847,8 1.801,9 1.750,2 1.702,4 1.659,8 1.625,6 1.596,3 1.571,8 1.551,7 1.535,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.953,3 1.920,4 1.886,0 1.851,8 1.813,8 1.774,0 1.737,6 1.705,6 1.681,1 1.660,7 1.644,7 1.632,4 1.623,9
ES Baseline 7.256,6 7.237,9 7.204,9 7.227,1 7.249,6 7.278,2 7.312,5 7.352,7 7.411,5 7.475,2 7.545,2 7.620,6 7.699,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 7.256,6 7.237,9 7.204,9 7.211,1 7.197,0 7.166,4 7.143,3 7.129,5 7.138,2 7.155,6 7.183,1 7.219,8 7.263,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 7.256,6 7.237,9 7.204,9 7.206,0 7.181,5 7.135,6 7.098,2 7.070,2 7.064,8 7.068,1 7.081,4 7.103,9 7.133,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 7.256,6 7.237,9 7.204,9 7.217,5 7.218,6 7.212,7 7.214,6 7.225,0 7.257,0 7.297,0 7.346,3 7.404,1 7.468,7
FI Baseline 2.077,6 2.059,2 2.035,8 2.027,8 2.010,1 1.989,7 1.965,7 1.938,5 1.911,0 1.882,7 1.856,8 1.836,9 1.825,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.077,6 2.059,2 2.035,8 2.029,2 2.007,9 1.976,9 1.943,5 1.908,8 1.876,6 1.846,5 1.821,5 1.804,1 1.795,5 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.077,6 2.059,2 2.035,8 2.027,9 2.003,7 1.968,4 1.931,1 1.892,7 1.856,8 1.823,2 1.794,6 1.773,5 1.761,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.077,6 2.059,2 2.035,8 2.030,9 2.014,6 1.992,1 1.968,1 1.943,3 1.921,3 1.901,2 1.885,6 1.876,5 1.875,0
FR Baseline 14.797,6 14.543,1 14.275,4 14.120,1 13.983,5 13.877,3 13.800,2 13.751,1 13.739,1 13.750,0 13.780,4 13.828,4 13.890,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 14.797,6 14.543,1 14.275,4 14.077,2 13.849,3 13.593,6 13.376,2 13.199,3 13.073,8 12.984,8 12.928,8 12.903,8 12.906,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 14.797,6 14.543,1 14.275,4 14.064,7 13.811,3 13.518,9 13.267,1 13.055,8 12.896,4 12.774,1 12.685,9 12.630,3 12.603,9 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 14.797,6 14.543,1 14.275,4 14.096,5 13.911,9 13.724,9 13.574,2 13.460,0 13.392,3 13.356,8 13.350,1 13.370,5 13.414,2
GR Baseline 1.154,4 1.141,0 1.126,3 1.130,9 1.131,4 1.132,0 1.132,6 1.133,9 1.139,9 1.146,0 1.152,5 1.159,0 1.165,3 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 1.154,4 1.141,0 1.126,3 1.130,7 1.128,6 1.124,4 1.120,5 1.117,8 1.120,4 1.123,7 1.127,9 1.132,7 1.137,6 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 1.154,4 1.141,0 1.126,3 1.130,1 1.126,2 1.119,2 1.112,6 1.107,2 1.107,1 1.107,7 1.109,3 1.111,5 1.113,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 1.154,4 1.141,0 1.126,3 1.131,0 1.130,1 1.127,8 1.125,9 1.125,1 1.129,4 1.134,5 1.140,4 1.146,8 1.153,4
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HU Baseline 608,1 615,5 623,4 624,6 627,9 631,1 634,2 637,3 641,8 646,0 650,1 654,5 658,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 608,1 615,5 623,4 623,1 623,6 622,2 620,4 618,2 616,9 615,0 613,1 612,0 610,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 608,1 615,5 623,4 622,4 621,9 618,7 615,1 610,8 607,2 602,6 597,7 593,3 588,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 608,1 615,5 623,4 623,6 624,9 625,0 624,8 624,3 625,0 625,1 625,4 626,4 627,5
IE Baseline 773,1 768,5 761,9 763,3 763,9 765,4 767,9 771,5 778,2 786,2 795,4 806,0 817,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 773,1 768,5 761,9 764,5 763,3 759,8 757,9 758,0 762,0 768,0 775,7 785,2 796,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 773,1 768,5 761,9 763,5 760,3 753,5 748,5 745,5 746,4 749,5 754,2 760,9 769,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 773,1 768,5 761,9 765,4 766,5 766,5 768,2 771,6 778,8 787,8 798,3 810,6 824,3
IT Baseline 17.318,9 17.146,8 16.943,1 16.727,6 16.537,3 16.363,0 16.205,2 16.065,6 15.963,0 15.874,9 15.804,4 15.747,3 15.702,5 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 17.318,9 17.146,8 16.943,1 16.685,1 16.407,8 16.094,6 15.805,2 15.544,8 15.333,9 15.149,1 14.992,7 14.860,4 14.751,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 17.318,9 17.146,8 16.943,1 16.669,7 16.363,8 16.009,1 15.681,4 15.383,2 15.135,7 14.914,8 14.723,3 14.556,7 14.414,1 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 17.318,9 17.146,8 16.943,1 16.701,2 16.458,4 16.200,5 15.965,9 15.757,3 15.594,6 15.454,9 15.340,7 15.248,0 15.175,4
LU Baseline 98,4 96,6 94,7 93,4 92,2 91,5 91,1 91,0 91,3 91,8 92,3 92,9 93,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 98,4 96,6 94,7 93,1 91,3 89,1 87,5 86,3 85,8 85,7 86,0 86,5 87,1 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 98,4 96,6 94,7 93,0 91,0 88,5 86,6 85,3 84,6 84,3 84,4 84,8 85,4 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 98,4 96,6 94,7 93,4 92,3 91,2 90,6 90,3 90,5 90,9 91,6 92,4 93,2
NL Baseline 4.577,5 4.540,6 4.495,8 4.452,2 4.415,8 4.385,7 4.362,0 4.346,5 4.346,7 4.356,6 4.376,4 4.405,5 4.442,9 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 4.577,5 4.540,6 4.495,8 4.444,3 4.384,5 4.312,1 4.248,4 4.196,7 4.164,9 4.147,0 4.143,0 4.151,9 4.172,7 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 4.577,5 4.540,6 4.495,8 4.440,0 4.371,6 4.285,4 4.207,5 4.140,9 4.093,7 4.060,2 4.040,8 4.034,9 4.041,5 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 4.577,5 4.540,6 4.495,8 4.450,5 4.404,5 4.354,1 4.312,1 4.281,0 4.268,3 4.268,4 4.281,5 4.306,9 4.343,6
PL Baseline 2.045,9 2.075,7 2.108,5 2.135,3 2.171,4 2.211,7 2.255,0 2.298,8 2.345,8 2.390,7 2.433,6 2.477,8 2.521,8 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.045,9 2.075,7 2.108,5 2.128,6 2.151,9 2.171,7 2.193,7 2.214,8 2.237,6 2.256,5 2.271,9 2.287,3 2.300,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.045,9 2.075,7 2.108,5 2.125,9 2.144,7 2.157,7 2.173,3 2.187,4 2.202,5 2.212,5 2.218,0 2.222,5 2.223,7 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.045,9 2.075,7 2.108,5 2.130,3 2.157,4 2.183,6 2.212,4 2.240,6 2.271,0 2.297,7 2.321,1 2.344,7 2.366,6
2008-2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PT Baseline 2.213,6 2.158,0 2.094,6 2.062,7 2.024,7 1.991,0 1.962,9 1.940,8 1.927,6 1.919,9 1.918,5 1.923,2 1.932,6 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 2.213,6 2.158,0 2.094,6 2.057,8 2.006,0 1.950,3 1.900,6 1.858,3 1.827,0 1.803,6 1.788,7 1.781,9 1.781,4 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 2.213,6 2.158,0 2.094,6 2.056,1 2.000,0 1.937,4 1.880,8 1.831,6 1.793,7 1.764,1 1.743,7 1.731,9 1.726,8 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 2.213,6 2.158,0 2.094,6 2.059,4 2.012,4 1.964,5 1.922,4 1.887,2 1.862,5 1.844,8 1.835,2 1.833,0 1.836,9
SE Baseline 3.254,5 3.212,4 3.163,9 3.124,5 3.081,7 3.040,6 3.002,6 2.969,5 2.946,5 2.928,8 2.916,9 2.909,8 2.908,2 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 3.254,5 3.212,4 3.163,9 3.125,3 3.073,1 3.011,4 2.956,0 2.909,2 2.876,2 2.851,2 2.833,8 2.822,6 2.817,9 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 3.254,5 3.212,4 3.163,9 3.122,7 3.065,5 2.996,6 2.934,7 2.881,7 2.842,9 2.812,0 2.788,6 2.771,1 2.760,0 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 3.254,5 3.212,4 3.163,9 3.129,5 3.086,6 3.039,9 2.999,2 2.966,3 2.946,1 2.933,0 2.926,7 2.925,8 2.930,9
SI Baseline 105,7 106,1 106,1 106,6 107,3 108,1 109,1 110,4 112,3 114,6 117,1 119,8 122,7 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 105,7 106,1 106,1 106,3 106,1 105,5 105,2 105,3 106,1 107,3 108,9 110,8 113,0 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 105,7 106,1 106,1 106,1 105,7 104,7 104,0 103,6 103,9 104,7 105,9 107,4 109,2 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 105,7 106,1 106,1 106,4 106,5 106,5 106,7 107,2 108,5 110,1 112,1 114,4 116,9
UK Baseline 24.447,2 24.264,8 24.066,1 23.960,9 23.909,9 23.915,2 23.973,8 24.085,6 24.272,5 24.504,7 24.780,7 25.095,2 25.443,0 Scenario 120g-IIEP(2004) 24.447,2 24.264,8 24.066,1 23.915,7 23.717,4 23.462,2 23.276,8 23.167,1 23.158,9 23.221,3 23.352,1 23.545,9 23.797,8 Scenario 120g-TNO(2006d) 24.447,2 24.264,8 24.066,1 23.888,4 23.634,1 23.294,6 23.026,8 22.834,1 22.743,6 22.724,9 22.776,8 22.894,9 23.075,3 Scenario 130g-TNO(2006d) 24.447,2 24.264,8 24.066,1 23.952,3 23.834,8 23.707,7 23.648,2 23.658,7 23.763,0 23.931,5 24.162,1 24.449,5 24.788,4
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10 Annex 2 – Detailed PACE-T modelling results Elasticities in PACE-T
Name of elasticity Value
Armington elasticity between domestic production and imports 4.00 Armington elasticity between domestic production and imports (electricity sector) 0.50 Armington elasticity between domestic production and imports (fossil fuels) 1.00 Armington elasticity for imports between different countries 4.00 Elasticity of substitution between electric and non-electric energy 0.10 Elasticity of substitution between oil and gas in production 1.00 Elasticity of substitution between coal and the oil-gas aggregate in production 0.50 Elasticity of substitution between coal and the oil-gas aggregate in production (electricity sector) 0.75 Elasticity between value added and energy 0.50 Elasticity of substitution among final non-energy consumption goods 1.00 Elasticity of energy supply (oil, gas) 1.00 Elasticity of energy supply (coal) 0.50 Elasticity of substitution between different fossil fuels at the household level 1.00 Elasticity of substitution in the value added production nest 1.00 Elasticity of substitution between consumption and transportation services 0.60 Armington elasticity for autos between world market and domestic production 2.00
Macroeconomic simulation results in scenario 120g-IEEP(2004)
2006 2010 2014 2018 2020 Transport Demand DE -0,14 0,32 -0,29 -0,15 -0,18 ES -0,13 0,30 -0,31 -0,10 -0,06 FR -0,09 0,19 -0,26 -0,04 0,04 IT -0,18 0,24 -0,39 -0,07 0,02 NL 0,09 -0,13 -0,06 0,21 0,48 UK -0,05 0,04 -0,20 0,05 0,19 REU15 0,03 0,04 -0,11 0,07 0,22 EU10 -0,32 0,50 -0,53 -0,26 -0,33 Real Consumption DE -0,05 0,00 -0,06 -0,07 -0,08 ES -0,06 0,00 -0,07 -0,07 -0,07 FR -0,05 -0,04 -0,06 -0,06 -0,05 IT -0,12 -0,01 -0,17 -0,11 -0,09 NL 0,03 -0,11 0,00 -0,01 0,06 UK -0,05 -0,06 -0,07 -0,05 -0,02 REU15 0,01 -0,04 0,00 -0,01 0,02 EU10 -0,16 0,03 -0,19 -0,14 -0,17 Investment DE 0,00 0,06 0,05 --0,04 -0,09 ES -0,01 0,07 0,01 -0,05 -0,06 FR 0,01 0,02 0,00 -0,03 -0,01 IT -0,07 0,21 -0,22 -0,04 -0,01 NL 0,33 -0,53 0,29 -0,11 0,17 UK 0,07 -0,12 0,02 -0,03 0,05 REU15 0,20 -0,30 0,23 -0,08 0,08 EU10 -0,23 0,46 -0,26 0,10 -0,13 Capital Stock DE 0,00 0,01 0,02 0,01 -0,01 ES 0,00 0,01 0,02 0,00 -0,01 FR 0,00 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00 IT -0,02 0,03 -0,01 -0,04 -0,03 NL 0,08 -0,05 -0,01 -0,01 0,05 UK 0,02 -0,01 -0,01 -0,01 0,00 REU15 0,05 -0,02 0,02 0,01 0,04 EU10 -0,05 0,06 0,01 0,01 -0,04 Car Exports DE -0,23 0,33 -3,60 -0,69 -0,56 ES -0,23 -0,13 -5,27 -2,74 -2,54 FR -0,23 -0,06 -4,76 -2,10 -1,94 IT -0,21 -0,14 -5,46 -3,07 -2,91 NL -0,25 0,32 -3,19 0,64 1,01 UK -0,24 0,26 -3,88 -0,74 -0,55 REU15 -0,24 0,52 -1,86 2,21 2,46 EU10 -0,22 -0,37 -7,06 -5,76 -5,77 Car Imports DE -0,54 2,06 -1,47 1,68 1,59 ES -0,50 2,02 -1,10 2,47 2,40 FR -0,36 1,57 0,02 2,68 2,61 IT -0,70 2,03 -0,74 3,36 3,31 NL 0,35 -0,81 0,75 1,10 1,11 UK -0,18 0,57 0,04 1,56 1,51 REU15 0,10 0,08 -0,50 0,41 0,37 EU10 -1,16 3,86 -2,05 4,27 4,25 Exports DE 0,10 -0,04 0,13 0,08 0,10 ES 0,11 0,04 0,17 0,18 0,17 FR 0,10 0,06 0,14 0,08 0,07 IT 0,23 0,00 0,41 0,14 0,11 NL -0,01 0,13 -0,07 0,00 -0,05 UK 0,10 0,17 0,18 0,22 0,20 REU15 -0,01 0,10 -0,04 0,05 0,01 EU10 0,17 -0,06 0,30 0,14 0,19 Imports DE -0,06 0,15 -0,09 0,06 0,02 ES -0,06 0,13 -0,21 -0,06 -0,10 FR -0,05 0,07 -0,11 0,01 0,00 IT -0,13 0,14 -0,31 -0,07 -0,08 NL 0,07 -0,12 0,01 -0,08 -0,01 UK -0,03 -0,03 -0,05 0,06 0,08 REU15 0,05 -0,04 0,06 0,05 0,09 EU10 -0,14 0,20 -0,30 -0,11 -0,21 Real GDP DE 0,00 -0,07 -0,03 -0,08 -0,07 ES 0,01 -0,08 -0,06 -0,11 -0,09 FR 0,00 -0,06 -0,06 -0,09 -0,07 IT 0,01 -0,12 0,01 -0,13 -0,11 NL 0,00 0,03 -0,06 0,01 0,04 UK 0,00 -0,02 -0,06 -0,05 -0,04 REU15 0,00 0,01 -0,03 0,01 0,03 EU10 0,02 -0,19 0,04 -0,25 -0,22 Productivity DE 0,00 0,02 0,01 0,01 0,00 ES 0,00 0,03 0,00 0,01 0,00 FR 0,01 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,00 IT 0,00 0,05 -0,01 -0,01 -0,01 NL 0,06 -0,05 0,02 -0,02 0,03 UK 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,01 REU15 0,04 -0,03 0,02 0,00 0,02 EU10 -0,04 0,08 -0,02 0,03 -0,02 Real Wage Rate DE -0,02 0,08 -0,03 0,01 0,00 ES -0,02 0,08 -0,05 0,02 0,02 FR 0,00 0,05 -0,03 0,03 0,05 IT -0,03 0,08 -0,07 0,00 0,00 NL 0,05 -0,04 0,00 0,06 0,11 UK 0,00 0,02 -0,03 0,03 0,07 REU15 0,02 0,00 -0,01 0,04 0,08 EU10 -0,09 0,18 -0,12 -0,02 -0,06 Real Interest Rate DE -0,03 0,06 -0,07 -0,03 -0,02 ES -0,02 0,05 -0,06 -0,01 0,01 FR -0,02 0,03 -0,04 0,01 0,03 IT -0,01 0,04 -0,06 0,03 0,05 NL -0,03 0,01 0,00 0,06 0,08 UK -0,01 0,02 -0,02 0,03 0,05 REU15 -0,02 0,02 -0,02 0,02 0,03 EU10 -0,03 0,12 -0,13 -0,04 -0,02 Disposable Income DE -0,04 0,02 -0,04 0,00 0,00 ES -0,04 0,01 -0,05 -0,01 -0,01 FR -0,04 0,00 -0,04 0,00 0,00 IT -0,07 0,02 -0,09 -0,04 -0,03 NL 0,01 -0,05 -0,01 -0,01 0,04 UK -0,03 -0,03 -0,05 -0,02 0,00 REU15 0,00 -0,02 -0,01 0,00 0,02 EU10 -0,09 0,05 -0,09 -0,01 -0,04 Tax Revenues DE -0,08 0,04 -0,23 -0,36 -0,45 ES -0,08 0,08 -0,30 -0,42 -0,53 FR -0,07 -0,04 -0,23 -0,39 -0,45 IT -0,17 0,05 -0,50 -0,60 -0,69 NL 0,04 -0,14 -0,14 -0,30 -0,26 UK -0,06 -0,04 -0,38 -0,63 -0,74 REU15 0,00 -0,05 -0,14 -0,26 -0,25 EU10 -0,20 0,18 -0,42 -0,42 -0,59 Social Welfare DE -0.03 ES -0.02 FR -0,04 IT -0,10 NL 0,02 UK -0,02 REU15 0,01 EU10 -0.08 Source: Calculations of PACE-T.
Sectoral shifts 120g-IEEP(2004)
2006 2010 2014 2018 2020
Employment DE MVH -0,07 0,56 -0,13 0,73 0,71 P_C -0,08 0,07 -0,75 -1,49 -1,99 SER -0,02 -0,02 -0,03 -0,06 -0,06 others 0,02 -0,04 0,04 -0,02 -0,02
ES MVH -0,05 0,50 -0,22 0,64 0,63 P_C -0,06 0,05 -0,75 -1,58 -2,03 SER -0,02 -0,02 -0,02 -0,04 -0,04 others 0,02 -0,01 0,03 0,00 0,00
FR MVH -0,05 0,52 -0,11 0,68 0,65 P_C -0,05 0,01 -0,91 -1,96 -2,47 SER -0,03 -0,03 -0,03 -0,04 -0,04 others 0,02 -0,01 0,03 -0,01 -0,01 IT MVH -0,04 0,62 -0,19 0,77 0,74 P_C -0,12 0,04 -1,16 -2,28 -3,02 SER -0,05 -0,03 -0,06 -0,05 -0,04 others 0,05 0,01 0,07 0,02 0,02 NL MVH -0,06 0,41 -0,04 0,67 0,64 P_C -0,09 0,08 -0,63 -1,31 -1,72 SER 0,00 -0,03 0,00 -0,02 0,00 others 0,00 0,02 0,00 0,00 -0,01 UK MVH -0,02 0,47 0,03 0,69 0,66 P_C -0,03 -0,02 -0,76 -1,63 -2,04 SER -0,02 -0,02 -0,02 -0,03 -0,02 others 0,02 0,00 0,02 0,00 -0,01 REU15 MVH -0,08 0,46 -0,04 0,72 0,69 P_C -0,03 0,01 -0,61 -1,28 -1,61 SER 0,00 -0,02 0,00 -0,02 -0,01 others 0,01 0,00 0,01 -0,01 -0,02
EU10 MVH -0,10 0,67 -0,46 0,52 0,49 P_C -0,09 0,06 -0,72 -1,59 -2,11 SER -0,05 -0,01 -0,06 -0,06 -0,07 others 0,03 -0,01 0,05 0,03 0,04
Investment DE MVH -0,24 2,50 -2,83 4,39 1,96 P_C -0,33 0,72 -4,22 -3,22 -4,09 SER -0,06 0,08 -0,02 -0,07 -0,11 others 0,12 -0,16 0,37 -0,24 -0,16
ES MVH -0,22 2,22 -3,10 4,41 1,80 P_C -0,31 0,63 -3,93 -3,45 -4,28 SER -0,08 0,15 -0,12 -0,01 -0,06 others 0,03 0,00 0,12 -0,09 -0,08
FR MVH -0,16 2,24 -2,58 4,02 1,80 P_C -0,19 0,29 -4,51 -4,53 -5,33 SER -0,06 0,02 -0,04 -0,05 -0,02 others 0,14 -0,10 0,20 -0,17 -0,08 IT MVH -0,26 2,62 -3,74 4,84 2,18 P_C -0,78 0,88 -6,86 -4,88 -6,63 SER -0,26 0,30 -0,44 0,03 0,04 others 0,09 0,09 0,03 -0,17 -0,07 NL MVH 0,07 1,37 -1,64 3,47 1,89 P_C -0,07 0,16 -3,40 -2,98 -3,46 SER 0,32 -0,67 0,41 -0,20 0,16 others 0,34 -0,40 0,18 -0,03 0,18
UK MVH 0,00 1,78 -1,79 3,44 1,65 P_C -0,07 -0,05 -3,54 -3,69 -4,06 SER 0,00 -0,12 -0,01 0,00 0,08 others 0,15 -0,17 0,14 -0,08 0,02
REU15 MVH -0,14 1,84 -1,93 3,81 1,87 P_C 0,11 -0,15 -2,88 -2,99 -3,20 SER 0,19 -0,34 0,25 -0,11 0,08 others 0,22 -0,33 0,27 -0,13 0,03 EU10 MVH -0,64 3,54 -4,86 5,23 1,99 P_C -0,70 1,14 -4,28 -3,51 -4,77 SER -0,43 0,65 -0,55 0,10 -0,18 others -0,10 0,27 0,05 -0,02 -0,16
Capital DE MVH -0,06 0,59 -0,09 0,76 0,74 P_C -0,07 0,09 -0,70 -1,49 -1,91 SER -0,01 0,01 0,01 -0,01 -0,03 others 0,03 -0,01 0,07 0,02 0,00 ES MVH -0,05 0,54 -0,20 0,66 0,65 P_C -0,06 0,08 -0,73 -1,57 -2,01 SER -0,02 0,02 -0,01 -0,02 -0,03 others 0,01 0,01 0,04 0,01 0,00
FR MVH -0,04 0,54 -0,09 0,69 0,67 P_C -0,04 0,03 -0,89 -1,94 -2,38 SER -0,01 -0,01 -0,01 -0,02 -0,02 others 0,03 0,01 0,05 0,00 0,00 IT MVH -0,06 0,66 -0,20 0,74 0,73 P_C -0,13 0,08 -1,16 -2,34 -2,99 SER -0,06 0,01 -0,08 -0,08 -0,06 others 0,02 0,04 0,04 -0,01 -0,01 NL MVH 0,02 0,36 -0,04 0,65 0,71 P_C -0,01 0,03 -0,63 -1,33 -1,65 SER 0,08 -0,08 0,00 -0,02 0,05 others 0,08 -0,02 0,00 0,00 0,05 UK MVH 0,00 0,47 0,02 0,69 0,69 P_C -0,02 0,08 -0,73 -1,57 -2,07 SER 0,00 -0,03 -0,03 -0,02 0,00 others 0,04 0,00 0,02 0,00 0,01 REU15 MVH -0,03 0,44 -0,02 0,74 0,74 P_C 0,02 -0,01 -0,59 -1,27 -1,55 SER 0,04 -0,04 0,01 0,00 0,03 others 0,05 -0,02 0,02 0,00 0,02
EU10 MVH -0,15 0,72 -0,45 0,52 0,46 P_C -0,14 0,12 -0,71 -1,59 -2,14 SER -0,10 0,05 -0,05 -0,05 -0,10 others -0,02 0,04 0,06 0,04 0,00 Source: Calculations of PACE-T.
Macroeconomic simulation results in scenario 120g-TNO(2006d)
2006 2010 2014 2018 2020 Transport Demand DE -0,34 1,02 -0,91 -1,13 -1,54 ES -0,29 0,94 -0,90 -1,03 -1,32 FR -0,28 0,84 -0,83 -0,96 -1,24 IT -0,37 0,94 -1,00 -0,98 -1,25 NL 0,04 0,11 -0,39 -0,27 -0,09 UK -0,21 0,56 -0,73 -0,73 -0,84 REU15 -0,08 0,43 -0,52 -0,56 -0,61 EU10 -0,63 1,33 -1,33 -1,43 -1,97 Real Consumption DE -0,12 -0,01 -0,16 -0,30 -0,39 ES -0,12 -0,01 -0,16 -0,28 -0,34 FR -0,13 -0,03 -0,15 -0,27 -0,33 IT -0,23 0,09 -0,33 -0,37 -0,46 NL 0,00 -0,20 -0,05 -0,13 -0,05 UK -0,13 -0,07 -0,19 -0,24 -0,25 REU15 -0,02 -0,09 -0,07 -0,15 -0,13 EU10 -0,33 0,08 -0,44 -0,48 -0,62 Investment DE 0,04 0,03 0,14 -0,33 -0,49 ES 0,03 0,08 0,12 -0,30 -0,41 FR 0,01 0,16 0,03 -0,27 -0,40 IT -0,14 0,71 -0,37 -0,35 -0,58 NL 0,58 -0,99 0,52 -0,30 0,24 UK 0,08 -0,07 -0,01 -0,20 -0,20 REU15 0,39 -0,68 0,48 -0,27 -0,01 EU10 -0,35 0,83 -0,43 -0,06 -0,52 Capital Stock DE 0,01 0,02 0,05 -0,04 -0,11 ES 0,01 0,03 0,05 -0,03 -0,09 FR 0,00 0,04 0,05 -0,03 -0,10 IT -0,03 0,14 0,06 -0,07 -0,17 NL 0,14 -0,11 -0,02 -0,05 0,04 UK 0,02 0,00 0,00 -0,05 -0,07 REU15 0,09 -0,07 0,02 -0,02 0,01 EU10 -0,08 0,12 0,04 -0,02 -0,15 Car Exports DE -0,57 0,50 -11,13 -5,63 -5,54 ES -0,56 -0,06 -12,68 -7,38 -7,23 FR -0,56 -0,11 -12,58 -7,34 -7,23 IT -0,53 -0,55 -14,16 -9,12 -8,99 NL -0,60 0,15 -11,68 -5,27 -4,99 UK -0,58 0,30 -11,79 -6,00 -5,85 REU15 -0,59 0,52 -9,94 -3,08 -2,88 EU10 -0,55 -1,07 -16,71 -13,04 -13,16 Car Imports DE -1,27 6,37 -4,49 4,35 4,19 ES -1,11 5,66 -4,59 3,90 3,75 FR -1,03 5,67 -2,51 5,34 5,19 IT -1,49 6,31 -3,54 6,29 6,10 NL 0,14 0,64 -0,59 2,02 2,05 UK -0,79 3,82 -2,34 3,57 3,48 REU15 -0,28 2,39 -2,55 1,49 1,45 EU10 -2,31 9,52 -6,23 7,35 7,25 Exports DE 0,24 -0,08 0,35 0,36 0,43 ES 0,23 0,13 0,34 0,54 0,57 FR 0,26 0,00 0,39 0,36 0,40 IT 0,46 -0,24 0,92 0,54 0,61 NL 0,01 0,26 -0,10 0,06 -0,02 UK 0,29 0,21 0,46 0,56 0,59 REU15 0,04 0,24 -0,02 0,21 0,15 EU10 0,36 -0,10 0,65 0,44 0,56 Imports DE -0,13 0,41 -0,28 0,07 -0,02 ES -0,12 0,40 -0,45 -0,08 -0,17 FR -0,13 0,35 -0,30 0,02 -0,06 IT -0,26 0,56 -0,65 -0,17 -0,31 NL 0,11 -0,18 -0,01 -0,15 -0,05 UK -0,12 0,14 -0,27 0,05 0,04 REU15 0,08 -0,05 0,02 0,03 0,09 EU10 -0,27 0,47 -0,61 -0,18 -0,39 Real GDP DE 0,01 -0,21 -0,10 -0,35 -0,38 ES 0,01 -0,21 -0,14 -0,37 -0,39 FR 0,00 -0,20 -0,11 -0,31 -0,33 IT 0,02 -0,35 0,05 -0,36 -0,35 NL 0,00 0,01 -0,14 -0,08 -0,07 UK 0,00 -0,12 -0,11 -0,26 -0,27 REU15 0,00 -0,04 -0,12 -0,13 -0,14 EU10 0,04 -0,47 0,08 -0,68 -0,72 Productivity DE 0,02 0,04 0,03 0,00 -0,04 ES 0,01 0,07 0,02 0,00 -0,05 FR 0,01 0,07 0,02 0,00 -0,05 IT 0,00 0,16 0,02 -0,02 -0,09 NL 0,10 -0,10 0,03 -0,04 0,03 UK 0,02 0,02 0,01 -0,01 -0,02 REU15 0,07 -0,07 0,05 -0,02 0,02 EU10 -0,05 0,17 -0,03 0,03 -0,08 Real Wage Rate DE -0,04 0,26 -0,13 -0,14 -0,25 ES -0,04 0,26 -0,16 -0,15 -0,23 FR -0,02 0,21 -0,10 -0,10 -0,17 IT -0,07 0,30 -0,16 -0,19 -0,28 NL 0,06 0,00 -0,06 -0,03 0,04 UK -0,02 0,14 -0,13 -0,12 -0,14 REU15 0,03 0,08 -0,08 -0,07 -0,06 EU10 -0,16 0,45 -0,31 -0,31 -0,49 Real Interest Rate DE -0,08 0,20 -0,22 -0,20 -0,23 ES -0,05 0,16 -0,19 -0,17 -0,18 FR -0,05 0,13 -0,17 -0,13 -0,14 IT -0,03 0,14 -0,21 -0,13 -0,12 NL -0,07 0,10 -0,04 0,01 -0,01 UK -0,04 0,12 -0,13 -0,10 -0,10 REU15 -0,07 0,12 -0,09 -0,07 -0,10 EU10 -0,08 0,33 -0,34 -0,29 -0,33 Disposable Income DE -0,09 0,06 -0,13 -0,09 -0,13 ES -0,09 0,04 -0,13 -0,10 -0,14 FR -0,09 0,05 -0,12 -0,09 -0,13 IT -0,14 0,13 -0,19 -0,16 -0,22 NL 0,00 -0,08 -0,07 -0,08 -0,03 UK -0,08 -0,01 -0,14 -0,11 -0,12 REU15 -0,02 -0,04 -0,07 -0,07 -0,05 EU10 -0,17 0,11 -0,21 -0,12 -0,21 Tax Revenues DE -0,19 0,15 -0,44 -0,72 -0,93 ES -0,18 0,29 -0,57 -0,74 -0,97 FR -0,17 0,00 -0,38 -0,76 -0,93 IT -0,35 0,36 -0,87 -1,14 -1,45 NL 0,01 -0,18 -0,28 -0,56 -0,53 UK -0,17 0,12 -0,67 -1,05 -1,28 REU15 -0,05 -0,04 -0,29 -0,54 -0,58 EU10 -0,40 0,46 -0,82 -0,81 -1,19 Social Welfare DE -0.21 ES -0.18 FR -0,20 IT -0,29 NL -0,07 UK -0,16 REU15 -0,10 EU10 -0.34 Source: Calculations of PACE-T.
Sectoral shifts 120g-TNO(2006d)
2006 2010 2014 2018 2020
Employment DE MVH -0,16 1,79 -0,70 1,77 1,77 P_C -0,21 0,33 -1,07 -1,88 -2,72 SER -0,06 -0,06 -0,08 -0,18 -0,19 others 0,06 -0,12 0,12 -0,03 -0,02 ES MVH -0,15 1,68 -0,92 1,55 1,55 P_C -0,15 0,26 -1,01 -2,03 -2,66 SER -0,04 -0,05 -0,04 -0,13 -0,14 others 0,04 -0,05 0,09 0,02 0,03 FR MVH -0,14 1,70 -0,69 1,66 1,64 P_C -0,14 0,27 -1,13 -2,33 -3,02 SER -0,06 -0,06 -0,08 -0,14 -0,15 others 0,06 -0,07 0,11 0,00 0,01
IT MVH -0,14 1,88 -0,91 1,83 1,82 P_C -0,24 0,38 -1,65 -3,01 -4,08 SER -0,09 -0,04 -0,13 -0,15 -0,17 others 0,10 -0,03 0,17 0,10 0,11 NL MVH -0,16 1,36 -0,65 1,28 1,23 P_C -0,20 0,33 -0,83 -1,67 -2,29 SER -0,01 -0,07 -0,01 -0,05 -0,03 others 0,02 0,04 0,02 0,02 0,01 UK MVH -0,06 1,53 -0,42 1,61 1,58 P_C -0,11 0,15 -1,04 -2,14 -2,74 SER -0,04 -0,05 -0,06 -0,10 -0,11 others 0,04 -0,03 0,08 0,02 0,03 REU15 MVH -0,18 1,51 -0,62 1,48 1,43 P_C -0,11 0,19 -0,82 -1,65 -2,15 SER -0,03 -0,05 -0,02 -0,08 -0,07 others 0,03 -0,02 0,05 0,00 0,00
EU10 MVH -0,21 1,88 -1,32 1,29 1,22 P_C -0,20 0,29 -1,03 -2,06 -2,79 SER -0,10 -0,02 -0,13 -0,19 -0,22 others 0,07 -0,04 0,13 0,10 0,12
Investment DE MVH -0,52 7,62 -10,23 12,77 5,67 P_C -0,79 2,40 -7,16 -3,68 -5,55 SER -0,11 0,09 -0,02 -0,49 -0,62 others 0,37 -0,61 1,14 -0,79 -0,59
ES MVH -0,59 7,22 -11,07 12,82 5,59 P_C -0,68 2,12 -6,48 -4,01 -5,72 SER -0,14 0,31 -0,27 -0,35 -0,51 others 0,13 -0,11 0,43 -0,37 -0,39
FR MVH -0,50 7,34 -9,78 12,05 5,30 P_C -0,59 2,02 -7,02 -4,92 -6,84 SER -0,16 0,22 -0,13 -0,41 -0,53 others 0,32 -0,29 0,76 -0,59 -0,47 IT MVH -0,76 8,00 -12,46 13,70 5,92 P_C -1,65 3,38 -11,91 -5,73 -9,42 SER -0,53 0,98 -0,97 -0,37 -0,72 others 0,16 0,34 0,31 -0,55 -0,51
NL MVH -0,09 5,06 -7,85 9,77 4,68 P_C -0,37 1,18 -5,68 -3,47 -4,64 SER 0,52 -1,23 0,73 -0,52 0,19 others 0,67 -0,80 0,38 -0,13 0,21
UK MVH -0,18 6,11 -8,09 10,47 4,79 P_C -0,37 1,33 -5,94 -4,52 -5,64 SER -0,10 0,00 -0,19 -0,28 -0,27 others 0,28 -0,32 0,45 -0,33 -0,18 REU15 MVH -0,36 5,99 -8,54 10,77 4,96 P_C -0,08 0,67 -4,78 -3,56 -4,34 SER 0,29 -0,70 0,47 -0,42 -0,10 others 0,52 -0,84 0,73 -0,38 -0,06 EU10 MVH -1,22 9,25 -13,42 13,73 5,40 P_C -1,38 2,96 -7,24 -4,14 -6,51 SER -0,78 1,22 -1,06 -0,32 -0,98 others -0,08 0,37 0,32 -0,26 -0,53
Capital DE MVH -0,12 1,85 -0,62 1,83 1,76 P_C -0,17 0,37 -0,95 -1,95 -2,58 SER -0,03 0,00 0,00 -0,12 -0,20 others 0,09 -0,06 0,19 0,02 -0,05 ES MVH -0,14 1,77 -0,89 1,56 1,51 P_C -0,14 0,34 -0,98 -2,04 -2,81 SER -0,03 0,04 -0,02 -0,11 -0,19 others 0,03 0,00 0,10 0,01 -0,05 FR MVH -0,12 1,78 -0,62 1,69 1,61 P_C -0,12 0,35 -1,06 -2,31 -3,05 SER -0,04 0,01 0,00 -0,11 -0,19 others 0,08 0,01 0,17 0,03 -0,03
IT MVH -0,17 2,04 -0,86 1,76 1,67 P_C -0,28 0,53 -1,58 -3,13 -4,15 SER -0,12 0,12 -0,08 -0,22 -0,32 others 0,04 0,12 0,18 0,01 -0,08
NL MVH -0,02 1,26 -0,66 1,23 1,30 P_C -0,07 0,23 -0,85 -1,73 -2,21 SER 0,13 -0,17 -0,03 -0,09 0,01 others 0,15 -0,05 0,00 -0,01 0,07
UK MVH -0,04 1,56 -0,42 1,58 1,55 P_C -0,09 0,17 -1,04 -2,17 -2,76 SER -0,02 -0,02 -0,06 -0,12 -0,15 others 0,07 -0,01 0,08 0,01 -0,01 REU15 MVH -0,09 1,46 -0,61 1,47 1,48 P_C -0,02 0,14 -0,80 -1,66 -2,09 SER 0,07 -0,10 0,00 -0,07 -0,04 others 0,13 -0,07 0,06 0,00 0,03 EU10 MVH -0,18 0,10 -0,10 -0,22 -0,38 P_C -0,28 0,40 -0,99 -2,11 -2,93 SER -0,18 0,10 -0,10 -0,22 -0,38 others -0,02 0,07 0,15 0,07 -0,05 Source: Calculations of PACE-T.
Macroeconomic simulation results in scenario 130g-TNO(2006d)
2006 2010 2014 2018 2020 Transport Demand DE -0,04 0,41 -0,44 -0,59 -0,70 ES -0,04 0,38 -0,45 -0,53 -0,59 FR -0,03 0,34 -0,41 -0,51 -0,57 IT -0,10 0,39 -0,54 -0,53 -0,57 NL 0,06 0,06 -0,20 -0,19 -0,10 UK 0,00 0,22 -0,34 -0,41 -0,43 REU15 0,03 0,20 -0,26 -0,34 -0,34 EU10 -0,20 0,56 -0,68 -0,75 -0,92 Real Consumption DE -0,03 0,00 -0,07 -0,14 -0,17 ES -0,05 -0,01 -0,08 -0,14 -0,15 FR -0,04 -0,01 -0,07 -0,13 -0,15 IT -0,10 0,03 -0,18 -0,20 -0,21 NL 0,00 -0,07 -0,02 -0,05 -0,02 UK -0,04 -0,03 -0,08 -0,11 -0,11 REU15 0,00 -0,02 -0,02 -0,06 -0,06 EU10 -0,15 0,02 -0,23 -0,25 -0,30 Investment DE 0,03 0,01 0,03 -0,18 -0,22 ES 0,01 0,03 0,01 -0,17 -0,20 FR 0,02 0,06 -0,02 -0,16 -0,21 IT -0,04 0,31 -0,24 -0,22 -0,26 NL 0,20 -0,39 0,20 -0,11 0,07 UK 0,05 -0,05 -0,01 -0,12 -0,10 REU15 0,14 -0,26 0,19 -0,11 -0,01 EU10 -0,17 0,37 -0,26 -0,08 -0,30 Capital Stock DE 0,01 0,01 0,01 -0,03 -0,06 ES 0,00 0,01 0,01 -0,03 -0,06 FR 0,00 0,02 0,01 -0,03 -0,06 IT -0,01 0,07 0,01 -0,06 -0,10 NL 0,05 -0,05 -0,01 -0,02 0,01 UK 0,01 0,00 0,00 -0,03 -0,04 REU15 0,03 -0,03 0,01 -0,01 0,00 EU10 -0,04 0,05 0,00 -0,04 -0,10 Car Exports DE -0,06 -0,19 -4,71 -1,69 -1,57 ES -0,05 -0,64 -6,29 -3,58 -3,39 FR -0,06 -0,64 -5,97 -3,19 -3,05 IT -0,04 -0,92 -7,11 -4,56 -4,42 NL -0,07 -0,38 -4,75 -0,84 -0,54 UK -0,06 -0,33 -5,15 -1,90 -1,72 REU15 -0,07 -0,08 -3,19 1,06 1,29 EU10 -0,05 -1,32 -9,18 -7,82 -7,88 Car Imports DE -0,16 2,24 -1,93 1,42 1,32 ES -0,15 2,08 -1,64 1,98 1,89 FR -0,12 2,16 -0,76 2,38 2,28 IT -0,40 2,62 -1,29 3,25 3,17 NL 0,21 0,19 -0,47 0,60 0,57 UK -0,02 1,28 -0,93 1,18 1,11 REU15 -0,11 0,79 -1,52 -0,02 -0,07 EU10 -0,74 3,96 -2,01 4,30 4,29 Exports DE 0,07 -0,03 0,14 0,16 0,17 ES 0,10 0,07 0,17 0,25 0,24 FR 0,09 0,01 0,17 0,17 0,17 IT 0,21 -0,06 0,48 0,28 0,26 NL 0,01 0,10 -0,04 0,02 -0,01 UK 0,08 0,08 0,17 0,22 0,22 REU15 0,00 0,08 -0,02 0,07 0,05 EU10 0,17 -0,03 0,33 0,22 0,26 Imports DE -0,02 0,15 -0,11 0,01 -0,01 ES -0,03 0,14 -0,23 -0,08 -0,11 FR -0,03 0,13 -0,14 -0,02 -0,05 IT -0,10 0,21 -0,35 -0,13 -0,17 NL 0,04 -0,07 0,00 -0,04 0,00 UK -0,02 0,04 -0,10 0,01 0,01 REU15 0,04 -0,01 0,03 0,05 0,07 EU10 -0,11 0,18 -0,31 -0,15 -0,24 Real GDP DE 0,00 -0,08 -0,05 -0,13 -0,14 ES 0,00 -0,09 -0,08 -0,17 -0,17 FR -0,01 -0,08 -0,06 -0,13 -0,14 IT 0,00 -0,15 0,02 -0,17 -0,17 NL 0,00 0,00 -0,06 -0,03 -0,02 UK 0,00 -0,04 -0,06 -0,10 -0,10 REU15 0,00 -0,02 -0,04 -0,04 -0,04 EU10 0,01 -0,20 -0,01 -0,35 -0,36 Productivity DE 0,01 0,02 0,01 -0,01 -0,03 ES 0,01 0,02 0,00 -0,02 -0,03 FR 0,01 0,03 0,00 -0,01 -0,03 IT 0,01 0,07 0,00 -0,03 -0,05 NL 0,04 -0,04 0,01 -0,01 0,01 UK 0,01 0,00 0,00 -0,01 -0,01 REU15 0,03 -0,03 0,02 -0,01 0,01 EU10 -0,02 0,08 -0,03 -0,01 -0,06 Real Wage Rate DE 0,00 0,10 -0,07 -0,09 -0,13 ES 0,00 0,10 -0,09 -0,09 -0,11 FR 0,01 0,08 -0,05 -0,07 -0,09 IT -0,01 0,13 -0,10 -0,12 -0,14 NL 0,03 0,00 -0,04 -0,03 0,00 UK 0,01 0,06 -0,06 -0,07 -0,08 REU15 0,02 0,03 -0,04 -0,05 -0,05 EU10 -0,05 0,19 -0,17 -0,18 -0,25 Real Interest Rate DE -0,01 0,08 -0,10 -0,10 -0,10 ES -0,01 0,07 -0,09 -0,08 -0,07 FR -0,01 0,05 -0,08 -0,06 -0,06 IT 0,00 0,06 -0,10 -0,06 -0,05 NL -0,02 0,04 -0,02 -0,01 -0,01 UK 0,00 0,05 -0,06 -0,06 -0,05 REU15 -0,01 0,05 -0,05 -0,05 -0,05 EU10 -0,01 0,14 -0,16 -0,14 -0,14 Disposable Income DE -0,02 0,02 -0,06 -0,05 -0,06 ES -0,03 0,01 -0,07 -0,07 -0,07 FR -0,03 0,02 -0,06 -0,06 -0,07 IT -0,05 0,05 -0,11 -0,10 -0,11 NL 0,00 -0,03 -0,04 -0,04 -0,02 UK -0,02 0,00 -0,06 -0,06 -0,06 REU15 0,00 -0,02 -0,03 -0,03 -0,02 EU10 -0,07 0,04 -0,11 -0,08 -0,12 Tax Revenues DE -0,04 0,06 -0,18 -0,29 -0,34 ES -0,05 0,11 -0,28 -0,36 -0,43 FR -0,05 0,00 -0,18 -0,34 -0,39 IT -0,13 0,14 -0,46 -0,56 -0,64 NL 0,02 -0,06 -0,12 -0,22 -0,20 UK -0,03 0,05 -0,27 -0,40 -0,45 REU15 0,00 0,00 -0,11 -0,19 -0,19 EU10 -0,16 0,18 -0,42 -0,44 -0,58 Social Welfare DE -0.08 ES -0.07 FR -0,08 IT -0,15 NL -0,03 UK -0,06 REU15 -0,04 EU10 -0.16 Source: Calculations of PACE-T.
Sectoral shifts 130g-TNO(2006d)
2006 2010 2014 2018 2020
Employment DE MVH 0,01 0,68 -0,25 0,72 0,70 P_C -0,04 0,15 -0,39 -0,57 -0,81 SER -0,02 -0,02 -0,03 -0,07 -0,07 others 0,01 -0,05 0,05 -0,01 -0,01 ES MVH 0,02 0,63 -0,38 0,61 0,59 P_C -0,03 0,10 -0,48 -0,92 -1,16 SER -0,02 -0,02 -0,02 -0,06 -0,06 others 0,01 -0,02 0,04 0,01 0,01 FR MVH 0,02 0,64 -0,28 0,65 0,62 P_C -0,02 0,11 -0,50 -0,98 -1,19 SER -0,02 -0,02 -0,03 -0,06 -0,06 others 0,02 -0,02 0,05 0,00 0,01
IT MVH 0,04 0,74 -0,39 0,73 0,70 P_C -0,07 0,16 -0,81 -1,36 -1,78 SER -0,04 -0,02 -0,07 -0,07 -0,07 others 0,04 0,00 0,09 0,05 0,05
NL MVH 0,00 0,51 -0,22 0,58 0,56 P_C -0,04 0,15 -0,30 -0,53 -0,67 SER 0,00 -0,02 0,00 -0,02 -0,01 others 0,00 0,01 0,00 0,01 0,00
UK MVH 0,03 0,57 -0,15 0,65 0,63 P_C -0,01 0,07 -0,40 -0,74 -0,88 SER -0,01 -0,02 -0,02 -0,04 -0,04 others 0,01 -0,01 0,03 0,01 0,01 REU15 MVH -0,01 0,57 -0,19 0,67 0,64 P_C -0,01 0,10 -0,28 -0,47 -0,56 SER -0,01 -0,01 -0,01 -0,03 -0,03 others 0,01 -0,01 0,02 0,00 0,00 EU10 MVH 0,00 0,73 -0,61 0,43 0,40 P_C -0,06 0,12 -0,51 -1,01 -1,32 SER -0,05 -0,01 -0,07 -0,09 -0,10 others 0,03 -0,01 0,06 0,05 0,06
Investment DE MVH 0,10 2,62 -3,74 4,88 2,05 P_C -0,10 0,84 -2,70 -0,96 -1,34 SER -0,01 0,03 -0,03 -0,25 -0,27 others 0,12 -0,21 0,42 -0,35 -0,26 ES MVH 0,13 2,42 -4,24 4,97 2,05 P_C -0,10 0,68 -2,93 -1,84 -2,33 SER -0,05 0,11 -0,15 -0,19 -0,23 others 0,05 -0,04 0,14 -0,20 -0,19 FR MVH 0,13 2,50 -3,69 4,61 1,91 P_C -0,03 0,65 -3,03 -2,01 -2,51 SER -0,04 0,08 -0,09 -0,22 -0,25 others 0,12 -0,09 0,27 -0,28 -0,23
IT MVH 0,13 2,86 -5,04 5,44 2,20 P_C -0,45 1,25 -5,58 -2,54 -3,68 SER -0,22 0,42 -0,53 -0,21 -0,27 others 0,10 0,17 0,07 -0,30 -0,27
NL MVH 0,21 1,66 -2,77 3,96 1,90 P_C 0,04 0,40 -2,15 -0,93 -1,11 SER 0,18 -0,47 0,27 -0,20 0,04 others 0,23 -0,32 0,14 -0,05 0,08
UK MVH 0,19 2,05 -2,92 4,02 1,77 P_C 0,00 0,41 -2,30 -1,43 -1,59 SER -0,01 -0,02 -0,08 -0,16 -0,13 others 0,11 -0,13 0,17 -0,16 -0,09 REU15 MVH 0,10 2,02 -2,96 4,32 1,97 P_C 0,11 0,24 -1,74 -0,81 -0,84 SER 0,12 -0,26 0,18 -0,18 -0,04 others 0,17 -0,32 0,28 -0,16 -0,03 EU10 MVH -0,19 3,33 -5,60 5,33 1,87 P_C -0,48 1,15 -3,45 -2,11 -3,01 SER -0,37 0,55 -0,57 -0,19 -0,42 others -0,05 0,20 0,07 -0,16 -0,28
Capital DE MVH 0,02 0,70 -0,22 0,72 0,68 P_C -0,02 0,17 -0,34 -0,63 -0,75 SER 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,07 -0,10 others 0,03 -0,02 0,07 -0,01 -0,04
ES MVH 0,03 0,67 -0,37 0,59 0,56 P_C -0,02 0,14 -0,48 -0,95 -1,18 SER -0,01 0,01 -0,02 -0,07 -0,10 others 0,01 0,00 0,03 -0,01 -0,04 FR MVH 0,03 0,68 -0,25 0,64 0,59 P_C -0,01 0,14 -0,48 -0,99 -1,23 SER -0,01 0,01 -0,01 -0,07 -0,10 others 0,03 0,01 0,06 0,00 -0,03
IT MVH 0,03 0,81 -0,38 0,66 0,62 P_C -0,08 0,22 -0,79 -1,47 -1,81 SER -0,05 0,05 -0,06 -0,13 -0,16 others 0,02 0,06 0,07 -0,02 -0,05 NL MVH 0,05 0,47 -0,23 0,56 0,58 P_C 0,01 0,11 -0,31 -0,56 -0,74 SER 0,04 -0,07 -0,01 -0,04 0,00 others 0,05 -0,03 -0,01 -0,01 0,02 UK MVH 0,05 0,58 -0,15 0,63 0,61 P_C 0,00 0,09 -0,40 -0,76 -0,90 SER 0,00 -0,01 -0,03 -0,06 -0,07 others 0,03 0,00 0,03 0,00 -0,01 REU15 MVH 0,02 0,55 -0,19 0,66 0,66 P_C 0,02 0,08 -0,27 -0,48 -0,53 SER 0,03 -0,03 0,00 -0,03 -0,02 others 0,04 -0,03 0,02 0,00 0,01
EU10 MVH -0,05 0,78 -0,61 0,38 0,30 P_C -0,10 0,17 -0,51 -1,07 -1,41 SER -0,09 0,04 -0,07 -0,13 -0,20 others -0,01 0,03 0,06 0,01 -0,05 Source: Calculations of PACE-T. - 482 -
11 Annex 3 – Detailed PACE-T modelling results Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 VW Group Skoda L Superb Czech Republic EU10 - 24.305 22.899 12.000 16.000 18.000 Tatra Tatra L 613-700 Czech Republic EU10 ------Hyundai Hyundai L Tucson Czech Republic EU10 - - - 35.000 68.000 83.000 VW Group Skoda L Yeti Czech Republic EU10 - - - 8.000 30.000 37.000 VW Group Skoda L Pick-Up Czech Republic EU10 ------VW Group Audi L TT Hungary EU10 56.776 34.711 23.605 46.000 26.000 33.000 Fiat Group Fiat L Sedici Hungary EU10 - - - 24.000 15.000 24.000 Fiat Group Lancia L SUV Hungary EU10 - - - 10.000 7.500 9.500 Suzuki Suzuki L SX4 Hungary EU10 - - - 35.000 27.000 30.000 GM Daewoo L Leganza Poland EU10 1.950 - - - - - VW Group Audi L A6 Poland EU10 ------VW Group VW L Transporter Poland EU10 - - 21.699 - - - Hyundai Kia L Sportage Slovak Republic EU10 - - - 39.000 55.000 35.000 VW Group Audi L Q5 Slovak Republic EU10 - - - 48.118 71.691 82.658 VW Group Audi L Q7 Slovak Republic EU10 - - - 89.000 75.000 88.000 VW Group VW L Touareg Slovak Republic EU10 - 6.343 87.046 56.700 80.000 46.000 TOTAL L EU10 58.726 65.359 155.249 402.818 471.191 486.158 DaimlerChrysler Chrysler L 300 Austria EU15 - - - 9.500 12.500 14.000 BMW BMW L X3 Austria EU15 - - 112.837 88.000 124.000 82.000 DaimlerChrysler Jeep L Commander Austria EU15 - - - 12.700 14.000 15.000 DaimlerChrysler Jeep L Grand Cherokee Austria EU15 37.022 30.398 23.957 25.000 30.000 28.000 DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz L G-Wagon Austria EU15 4.426 9.072 6.076 2.700 - - DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz L M-Class Austria EU15 26.490 12.279 - - - - Steyr-Daimler-PuchPuch L G-Wagon Austria EU15 170 - - - - - DaimlerChrysler Chrysler L Voyager Austria EU15 30.161 38.234 40.118 42.000 32.000 35.000 Ford Volvo L 70/800 (P80) Belgium EU15 59.080 - - - - - Ford Volvo L V70 Belgium EU15 31.425 45.515 43.711 - - - Ford Ford L Galaxy Belgium EU15 - - - 41.000 28.500 33.000 Ford Ford L S-Max Belgium EU15 - - - 48.000 36.000 45.000 GM Opel L Calibra Finland EU15 ------Porsche Porsche L Boxster Finland EU15 19.151 20.198 10.051 14.200 11.000 19.800 Porsche Porsche L Cayman Finland EU15 - - - 13.300 10.000 13.000 PSA Citroen L C6 France EU15 - - 1 17.500 9.400 14.500 PSA Citroen L XM France EU15 2.346 - - - - - PSA Peugeot L 504 France EU15 ------PSA Peugeot L 505 France EU15 ------PSA Peugeot L 605 France EU15 ------PSA Peugeot L 607 France EU15 23.509 27.161 18.076 9.821 - - PSA Peugeot L 608 France EU15 - - - - 19.500 25.000 Renault-Nissan Renault L Avantime France EU15 - 5.522 - - - - Renault-Nissan Renault L Safrane France EU15 12.365 - - - - - Renault-Nissan Renault L Vel Satis France EU15 - 21.945 8.361 4.800 15.250 20.000 DaimlerChrysler Smart L Roadster France EU15 - 107 15.381 - - - Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 GM Opel L Tigra TwinTop France EU15 - - 14.904 21.000 41.500 21.000 Renault-Nissan Renault L Alpine France EU15 ------
Renault-Nissan 111 2Renault L Spider France EU15 ------PSA Citroen L Jumpy France EU15 ------PSA Peugeot L Expert France EU15 1.363 - - - - - Fiat Group Fiat L Ulysse France EU15 10.377 9.063 13.433 5.600 9.750 11.900 Fiat Group Lancia L Phedra France EU15 - 5.232 7.594 4.100 6.000 9.600 Fiat Group Lancia L Zeta France EU15 2.265 - - - - - PSA Citroen L C8 France EU15 - 11.970 24.049 16.900 22.800 29.000 PSA Citroen L Evasion France EU15 17.451 - - - - - PSA Peugeot L 806 France EU15 22.406 - - - - - PSA Peugeot L 807 France EU15 - 14.933 31.178 19.250 29.500 33.000 Renault-Nissan Renault L Espace France EU15 68.471 45.524 64.429 38.800 53.000 61.000 BMW BMW L 5 Series Germany EU15 192.034 165.675 251.449 176.375 203.101 165.475 BMW BMW L RFK Germany EU15 - - - - 53.023 52.417 DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz L CLS Germany EU15 - - 13.054 36.094 43.428 28.952 DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz L E-Class Germany EU15 251.329 250.092 284.329 164.655 223.211 244.954 Ford Ford L Scorpio Germany EU15 ------GM Opel L Omega Germany EU15 69.965 31.743 - - - - Porsche Porsche L Panamera Germany EU15 - - - - 25.340 22.164 VW Group Audi L 100 Germany EU15 ------VW Group Audi L A6 Germany EU15 169.276 156.974 182.934 188.384 193.227 144.927 VW Group Audi L Allroad Germany EU15 11.439 19.998 14.842 19.284 10.438 13.948 BMW BMW L 7 Series Germany EU15 39.019 60.460 41.196 41.333 43.934 52.098 DaimlerChrysler Maybach L 57/62 Germany EU15 - 47 566 307 259 341 DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz L CL Germany EU15 10.683 9.572 4.819 9.408 4.823 6.484 DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz L S-Class Germany EU15 87.892 68.279 52.880 74.025 50.045 60.469 VW Group Audi L A8 Germany EU15 12.894 10.942 22.429 17.820 22.416 13.279 VW Group Bentley L Flying Spur Germany EU15 - - - 885 543 787 VW Group VW L Phaeton Germany EU15 - 3.403 5.485 3.572 7.008 3.737 BMW BMW L 6 Series Germany EU15 - 15 23.785 15.231 20.552 11.904 BMW BMW L 8 Series Germany EU15 ------BMW BMW L Z8 Germany EU15 1.928 926 - - - - DaimlerChrysler Chrysler L Crossfire Germany EU15 - - 35.596 6.803 13.488 16.087 DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz L SL Germany EU15 8.058 31.957 25.768 14.218 27.796 13.947 DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz L SLK Germany EU15 49.167 28.244 55.417 35.828 50.075 30.664 Ford Ford L Puma Germany EU15 23.833 - - - - - GM Opel L Calibra Germany EU15 ------Porsche Porsche L 911 Germany EU15 24.514 33.373 29.022 29.920 30.616 25.859 Porsche Porsche L 928 Germany EU15 ------Porsche Porsche L Boxster Germany EU15 7.909 819 2.839 4.491 4.283 4.312
Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 VW Group Audi L Coupe/GT Germany EU15 ------VW Group Audi L R8 Germany EU15 - - - 3.657 2.574 3.077 VW Group VW L Corrado Germany EU15 ------DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz L T1/Sprinter Germany EU15 7.549 7.150 8.315 9.696 8.176 8.625 VW Group VW L Crafter Germany EU15 - - - 3.586 3.119 3.726 VW Group VW L LT Germany EU15 3.840 2.114 3.095 - - - VW Group VW L Transporter Germany EU15 78.344 72.576 56.814 63.487 57.785 65.026 DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz L MST Germany EU15 - - - 19.016 74.712 86.646 Ford Ford L Focus based SUV Germany EU15 - - - 12.613 33.536 40.490 Porsche Porsche L Cayenne Germany EU15 - 1.513 42.183 30.623 39.990 30.228 VW Group VW L Golf based SUV Germany EU15 - - - 79.432 58.426 71.105 Fiat Group Alfa Romeo L 164 Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Alfa Romeo L 166 Italy EU15 19.543 8.165 6.777 500 - - Fiat Group Alfa Romeo L 167 Italy EU15 - - - 19.500 6.500 18.000 Fiat Group Fiat L Croma Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Lancia L Kappa Italy EU15 6.939 - - - - - Fiat Group Lancia L Thesis Italy EU15 - 4.225 2.512 - - - Fiat Group Alfa Romeo L Brera Italy EU15 - - - 8.000 4.200 6.000 Fiat Group Alfa Romeo L Coupe GT Italy EU15 - - 25.833 11.000 18.000 22.000 Fiat Group Alfa Romeo L Coupe GTV Italy EU15 2.602 975 623 - - - Fiat Group Alfa Romeo L Spider Italy EU15 3.505 1.922 1.036 5.000 2.800 4.000 Fiat Group Ferrari L Ferrari 360 Italy EU15 3.123 3.294 3.192 - - - Fiat Group Ferrari L Ferrari 430 Italy EU15 - - 449 3.600 300 - Fiat Group Ferrari L Ferrari 430 NF Italy EU15 - - - - 3.900 3.200 Fiat Group Ferrari L Ferrari 456 Italy EU15 254 126 - - - - Fiat Group Ferrari L Ferrari 512 Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Ferrari L Ferrari 612 Scaglietti Italy EU15 - - 691 560 300 - Ferrari 612 Scaglietti Fiat Group Ferrari L NF Italy EU15 - - - - - 600 Fiat Group Ferrari L Ferrari Enzo Italy EU15 - 34 235 - - - Fiat Group Ferrari L Ferrari F355 Italy EU15 1 - - - - - Fiat Group Ferrari L Ferrari F50 Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Ferrari L Ferrari F550 Italy EU15 644 - - - - - Ferrari F575 Fiat Group Ferrari L Maranello Italy EU15 - 815 387 - - - Fiat Group Ferrari L Ferrari F599 GTB Italy EU15 - - - 680 480 - Ferrari F599 GTB Fiat Group Ferrari L NF Italy EU15 - - - - - 550 Fiat Group Ferrari L Unspec. Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Fiat L Barchetta Italy EU15 4.294 879 933 - - - Fiat Group Fiat L Coupe Italy EU15 2.299 - - - - - Fiat Group Maserati L Ghibli/Shamal Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Maserati L MC 12 Italy EU15 ------Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 Maserati Fiat Group Maserati L Coupe/Spyder Italy EU15 1.914 3.485 2.591 - - - Maserati Fiat Group Maserati L Coupe/Spyder NF Italy EU15 - - - 3.000 2.250 2.800 Fiat Group Maserati L New Entry Spyder Italy EU15 - - - - 4.100 - New Entry Spyder Fiat Group Maserati L NF Italy EU15 - - - - - 5.000 Fiat Group Maserati L Quattroporte Italy EU15 125 - 2.560 2.900 3.500 2.100 Ford Ford L StreetKa Italy EU15 - - 8.562 - - - Unspec. Unspec. L Unspec. Italy EU15 4 13 4 - - - VW Group Lamborghini L Diablo Italy EU15 287 - - - - - VW Group Lamborghini L Gallardo Italy EU15 - - 1.297 1.300 400 - VW Group Lamborghini L Gallardo NF Italy EU15 - - - - 1.000 1.280 VW Group Lamborghini L Murcielago Italy EU15 - 442 383 380 - - VW Group Lamborghini L Murcielago NF Italy EU15 - - - - 450 320 Fiat Group Alfa Romeo L Kamal Italy EU15 - - - - 8.500 9.500 Mitsubishi Mitsubishi L Pajero iO/Pinin Italy EU15 18.698 11.300 8.672 - - - Ford Ford L Galaxy Portugal EU15 50.115 45.312 35.497 - - - VW Group Seat L Alhambra Portugal EU15 23.859 26.308 21.580 21.000 25.500 30.000 VW Group VW L Sharan Portugal EU15 51.766 58.385 38.583 28.000 45.000 55.000 GM Opel L Tigra Spain EU15 12.266 - - - - - DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz L V-Class Spain EU15 13.953 8.718 - - - - DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz L Viano Spain EU15 - - 20.239 11.513 16.952 10.666 Ford Volvo L C70 Sweden EU15 12.292 7.689 7.158 - - - S70/V70/C70/800 Ford Volvo L Series Sweden EU15 1.242 - - - - - Ford Volvo L S80 Sweden EU15 67.552 40.039 30.450 48.000 32.000 33.500 Ford Volvo L S90/V90/900 Series Sweden EU15 ------Ford Volvo L V70 Sweden EU15 73.621 77.352 27.052 100.000 76.000 96.000 Ford Volvo L XC70 Sweden EU15 - - 36.196 43.000 38.000 44.000 GM Saab L 9-5 Sweden EU15 63.950 56.916 37.519 20.000 24.000 30.000 GM Saab L 9000 Sweden EU15 ------Ford Volvo L XC60 Sweden EU15 - - - 50.000 40.000 48.000 Ford Volvo L XC90 Sweden EU15 - 9.521 88.747 69.000 89.000 105.000 GM Saab L 9-4X Sweden EU15 - - - - 35.500 44.000 Ford Jaguar L S-Type United Kingdom EU15 53.521 36.133 26.132 40.000 30.500 42.500 Rover Group Rover L 800 United Kingdom EU15 ------BMW Rolls-Royce L Phantom United Kingdom EU15 - - 875 900 850 920 Ford Jaguar L XJ/XJR United Kingdom EU15 - 677 14.996 12.500 19.000 10.800 Ford Jaguar L XJ6/XJ8 United Kingdom EU15 22.914 10.199 - - - - VW Group Bentley L Arnage United Kingdom EU15 1.244 944 790 580 700 580 VW Group Bentley L Azure United Kingdom EU15 131 69 - 180 180 150 VW Group Bentley L Continental GT/GTC United Kingdom EU15 - - 6.896 5.200 6.300 4.800 VW Group Bentley L Continental R United Kingdom EU15 65 33 - - - - Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 VW Group Bentley L Continental T United Kingdom EU15 28 17 - - - - VW Group Bentley L Flying Spur United Kingdom EU15 - - - 5.000 3.300 4.500 VW Group Bentley L Unspec. United Kingdom EU15 ------VW Group Rolls-Royce L Corniche United Kingdom EU15 206 53 - - - - VW Group Rolls-Royce L Park Ward United Kingdom EU15 30 41 - - - - VW Group Rolls-Royce L Silver Seraph United Kingdom EU15 234 53 - - - - VW Group Rolls-Royce L Unspec. United Kingdom EU15 ------Caterham Group Caterham L 21 United Kingdom EU15 ------Caterham Group Caterham L Super Seven United Kingdom EU15 468 442 432 450 450 450 DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz L SLR United Kingdom EU15 - - 365 590 600 600 Ford Aston Martin L DB7 United Kingdom EU15 1.000 956 66 - - - Ford Aston Martin L DB9 United Kingdom EU15 - - 1.608 1.750 1.800 1.900 Ford Aston Martin L Rapide United Kingdom EU15 - - - 600 460 550 Ford Aston Martin L V8 Vantage United Kingdom EU15 - - - 2.650 1.500 2.200 Ford Aston Martin L V8 Virage United Kingdom EU15 29 - - - - - Ford Aston Martin L Vanquish United Kingdom EU15 - 506 393 420 460 490 Ford Jaguar L XJS United Kingdom EU15 ------Ford Jaguar L XK8 United Kingdom EU15 12.238 6.861 4.412 11.000 7.000 10.500 GM Opel L Speedster United Kingdom EU15 - 1.841 505 - - - Morgan Group Morgan L 4/4 United Kingdom EU15 284 231 179 100 100 100 Morgan Group Morgan L Aero 8 United Kingdom EU15 - 119 24 100 100 100 Morgan Group Morgan L Plus 4 United Kingdom EU15 26 - 28 135 135 135 Morgan Group Morgan L Plus 8 United Kingdom EU15 240 164 320 200 200 200 Proton Lotus L 340R United Kingdom EU15 340 - - - - - Proton Lotus L Elan United Kingdom EU15 ------Proton Lotus L Elise United Kingdom EU15 1.800 2.369 2.674 3.000 1.600 3.200 Proton Lotus L Esprit United Kingdom EU15 222 157 16 550 340 240 Proton Lotus L Europa S United Kingdom EU15 - - - 1.400 750 1.200 Proton Lotus L Exige United Kingdom EU15 499 - 522 650 450 650 Rover Group Rover L MG F United Kingdom EU15 9.607 - - - - - Rover Group Rover L MG RV8 United Kingdom EU15 ------Rover Group Rover L MG TF United Kingdom EU15 - 14.027 10.936 - - - TVR Group TVR L Cerbera United Kingdom EU15 168 72 61 - - - TVR Group TVR L Chimera United Kingdom EU15 373 72 - - - - TVR Group TVR L Griffith United Kingdom EU15 90 64 - - - - TVR Group TVR L Sagaris United Kingdom EU15 - - 3 200 200 200 TVR Group TVR L Tamora United Kingdom EU15 - 227 595 200 200 200 TVR Group TVR L Tuscan United Kingdom EU15 686 375 201 250 250 250 TVR Group TVR L Unspec. United Kingdom EU15 ------Ford Land Rover L Defender United Kingdom EU15 13.765 12.845 13.149 10.500 15.000 11.500 Ford Land Rover L Discovery United Kingdom EU15 56.364 43.030 21.707 - - - Ford Land Rover L Discovery/LR3 United Kingdom EU15 - - 19.961 48.000 35.000 48.000 Ford Land Rover L Freelander United Kingdom EU15 71.391 72.040 61.215 70.000 49.000 65.000 Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 Ford Land Rover L Range Rover United Kingdom EU15 18.477 27.497 33.732 18.000 28.000 15.500 Ford Land Rover L Range Rover Sport United Kingdom EU15 - - - 32.000 37.000 27.500 GM IBC L Frontera United Kingdom EU15 ------GM Opel L Frontera United Kingdom EU15 33.476 13.042 48 - - - Honda Honda L CR-V United Kingdom EU15 9.602 77.014 106.587 115.000 94.000 85.000 Unspec. Unspec. L Unspec. United Kingdom EU15 3.799 2.536 2.734 2.500 2.500 2.500 TOTAL L EU15 2.166.316 1.943.646 2.332.893 2.326.452 2.627.181 2.645.459 GM Daewoo L Leganza Romania CAND 336 1.282 - - - - Aro Aro L 10 Romania CAND 241 25 - - - - Aro Aro L 240 Romania CAND 507 844 195 - - - GM Daewoo L Korando Romania CAND 1 - - - - - GM Daewoo L Musso Romania CAND 69 - - - - - TOTAL L CAND 1.154 2.151 195 - - - BMW BMW L 5 Series Russia NON 1.242 1.196 1.620 5.800 6.500 4.000 GAZ GAZ/Volga L Unspec. Russia NON 116.319 65.648 65.686 44.000 37.000 28.000 GM Cadillac L CTS Russia NON - - - 350 - - Hyundai Hyundai L Sonata Russia NON - - - 26.000 29.000 29.000 Toyota Toyota L Camry Russia NON - - - 12.000 30.000 48.000 BMW BMW L 7 Series Russia NON - - 115 - - - GM Cadillac L STS Russia NON - - - 1.100 - - ZIL Zil L Unspec. Russia NON 10 9 - - - - Chery Chery L Tiggo Russia NON - - - 14.000 17.000 45.000 Ford Land Rover L Defender Russia NON 108 - - - - - GM Cadillac L SRX Russia NON - - - 1.400 - - GM Chevrolet L Blazer Russia NON ------GM Chevrolet L Niva Russia NON - 456 57.737 72.000 60.000 61.000 GM Chevrolet L Tahoe Russia NON - - 451 5.000 - - GM Chevrolet L Trail Blazer Russia NON - - 269 8.000 - - GM Hummer L H2 Russia NON - - 122 350 200 - Great Wall Great Wall L Hover Russia NON - - - 26.000 26.000 24.000 Great Wall Great Wall L Sing Russia NON - - - 14.000 15.000 13.000 Hyundai Kia L Sportage Russia NON 519 1.332 2.489 6.000 10.000 9.000 Ssangyong Ssangyong L Rexton Russia NON - - - 13.000 30.000 25.000 UAZ UAZ L Patriot Russia NON - - - 25.000 23.000 29.000 UAZ UAZ L Unspec. Russia NON 43.484 33.648 31.136 17.000 13.000 16.000 FAW Group Corp. FAW L Unspec. Russia NON - - - 5.000 15.000 29.000 Ford Ford L Unspec. Russia NON - - - - 30.000 43.000 Unspec. Unspec. L Unspec. Russia NON - 43.061 19.775 - - - VW Group Skoda L Superb Ukraine NON - - 265 175 - - ZAZ Mercedes-Benz L E-Class Ukraine NON - - 1.100 800 1.100 900 ZAZ Mercedes-Benz L M-Class Ukraine NON - - 300 200 200 200 AvtoVaz AvtoVaz L Unspec. Ukraine NON - 12.837 16.567 29.000 25.000 20.000 Chery Chery L Unspec. Ukraine NON - - - 12.000 16.000 34.000 Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 GM Chevrolet L Unspec. Ukraine NON 10.841 8.570 71.845 55.000 54.500 48.000 Unspec. Unspec. L Unspec. Ukraine NON 2.500 8.330 21.637 24.000 20.000 15.000 VW Group VW L Unspec. Ukraine NON - - 1.050 4.750 5.000 4.200 ZAZ ZAZ/Avtozaz L Unspec. Ukraine NON 14.000 18.646 51.824 36.500 36.400 34.000 GM Daewoo L Unspec. Uzbekistan NON ------TOTAL L NON 189.023 193.733 343.988 458.425 499.900 559.300 Hyundai Hyundai M Accent Czech Republic EU10 - - - 65.000 100.000 89.000 Hyundai Hyundai M New MPV Czech Republic EU10 - - - 30.000 35.000 47.000 VW Group Skoda M Octavia Czech Republic EU10 153.790 163.198 181.320 180.000 220.000 160.000 GM Opel M Astra Hungary EU10 ------VW Group Audi M A3 Hungary EU10 - 18.895 - - - - GM Opel M Vectra Hungary EU10 ------FSO FSO M Lanos Poland EU10 ------Fiat Group Fiat M Bravo/Brava Poland EU10 935 - - - - - Ford Ford M Escort Poland EU10 4.930 - - - - - GM Daewoo M Lanos Poland EU10 31.720 30.000 15.000 - - - GM Daewoo M Rezzo/Tacuma Poland EU10 1.300 - - - - - GM FSO M Polonez Poland EU10 14.875 - - - - - GM Opel M Astra Poland EU10 29.936 9.448 65.569 61.000 27.000 30.000 GM Opel M Zafira Poland EU10 - - - 125.000 120.000 120.000 VW Group Skoda M Octavia Poland EU10 8.329 - - - - - Fiat Group Fiat M Marea Poland EU10 ------GM Daewoo M Espero Poland EU10 ------GM Daewoo M Nubira Poland EU10 9.620 3.500 - - - - GM Opel M Vectra Poland EU10 ------VW Group VW M Passat Poland EU10 400 - - - - - Hyundai Kia M Cerato Slovak Republic EU10 - - - 85.000 69.000 89.000 VW Group VW M Bora Slovak Republic EU10 5.000 6.700 - - - - VW Group VW M Golf Slovak Republic EU10 96.000 15.487 10.715 10.700 18.000 10.000 VW Group VW M Passat Slovak Republic EU10 ------TOTAL M EU10 356.835 247.228 272.604 556.700 589.000 545.000 DaimlerChrysler Chrysler M PT Cruiser Austria EU15 - 16.972 - - - - GM Saab M 9-3 Austria EU15 - - 18.336 13.400 18.200 16.500 Ford Ford M Escort Belarus EU15 ------Ford Volvo M C30 Belgium EU15 - - - 64.000 44.000 56.000 GM Opel M Astra Belgium EU15 328.936 297.576 231.503 230.000 247.000 240.000 Renault-Nissan Renault M Megane Belgium EU15 ------VW Group Audi M A3/S3 Belgium EU15 - - 7.762 - - - VW Group Seat M Leon Belgium EU15 13.390 - - - - - VW Group Seat M Toledo Belgium EU15 59.069 - - - - - VW Group VW M Golf Belgium EU15 211.201 162.706 152.329 130.000 125.000 150.000 Ford Ford M Mondeo Belgium EU15 178.846 261.399 194.939 200.000 140.000 175.000 Ford Volvo M S40 Belgium EU15 - - 70.458 62.500 80.000 52.000 Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 Ford Volvo M S60 Belgium EU15 30.286 104.411 68.036 85.000 61.000 83.000 Ford Volvo M V50 Belgium EU15 - - 64.383 60.000 83.000 51.000 GM Opel M Vectra Belgium EU15 ------Renault-Nissan Renault M 21 Belgium EU15 ------VW Group VW M Passat Belgium EU15 ------PSA Citroen M C4 France EU15 - - 51.924 172.000 218.000 118.000 PSA Citroen M Xsara France EU15 163.087 110.438 25.198 - - - PSA Citroen M ZX France EU15 ------PSA Peugeot M 306 France EU15 186.090 6.026 - - - - PSA Peugeot M 307 France EU15 - 528.956 548.321 - - - PSA Peugeot M 308 France EU15 - - - 506.000 435.000 510.000 Renault-Nissan Renault M 19 France EU15 ------Renault-Nissan Renault M Megane France EU15 33.043 31.593 104.164 87.500 86.000 108.000 Renault-Nissan Renault M Megane Scenic France EU15 385.191 322.608 371.649 282.500 342.000 367.000 PSA Citroen M C5 France EU15 828 157.106 100.553 140.000 91.000 118.000 PSA Citroen M Xantia France EU15 77.908 - - - - - PSA Peugeot M 405 France EU15 ------PSA Peugeot M 406 France EU15 240.561 111.007 18.409 - - - PSA Peugeot M 407 France EU15 - - 164.969 145.500 214.000 145.000 Renault-Nissan Nissan M Primera France EU15 - - - 81.000 58.000 60.000 Renault-Nissan Renault M 21 France EU15 ------Renault-Nissan Renault M Laguna France EU15 174.305 258.983 144.358 220.000 152.000 184.000 BMW BMW M 1 Series Germany EU15 - - 64.327 233.376 252.524 202.521 BMW BMW M 3 Series Comp. Germany EU15 24.832 63.498 33.050 - - - DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz M A-Class Germany EU15 187.262 156.495 138.847 158.577 184.397 147.076 DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz M B-Class Germany EU15 - - 129 94.337 71.516 89.739 DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz M C-Class Sportcoupe Germany EU15 775 76.570 45.086 - - - DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz M Vaneo Germany EU15 - 21.788 12.000 - - - Ford Ford M C-Max Germany EU15 - - 143.769 95.466 138.632 143.741 - Ford Ford M Escort Germany EU15 1 - - - - - Ford Ford M Focus Germany EU15 383.897 433.708 226.907 250.213 267.226 274.682 GM Opel M Astra Germany EU15 164.059 129.451 63.017 105.722 74.194 81.026 GM Opel M Zafira Germany EU15 217.706 222.472 183.909 125.544 107.065 100.620 VW Group Audi M A3 Germany EU15 136.141 96.156 166.988 178.017 190.564 191.720 VW Group VW M Bora Germany EU15 123.024 90.616 53.089 - - - VW Group VW M Golf Germany EU15 606.632 500.799 453.242 239.861 253.062 263.529 VW Group VW M Golf Plus Germany EU15 - - 2.071 152.082 204.396 156.201 VW Group VW M Jetta Germany EU15 ------VW Group VW M Touran Germany EU15 - 519 187.450 142.896 199.530 167.700 VW Group VW M Vento Germany EU15 ------BMW BMW M 3 Series Germany EU15 451.711 460.672 345.637 453.906 379.588 361.742 DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz M C-Class Germany EU15 251.061 266.612 248.082 282.140 178.520 209.555 Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 DaimlerChrysler Mercedes-Benz M CLK Germany EU15 78.350 62.431 79.756 42.065 68.436 76.862 GM Opel M Signum Germany EU15 - 173 18.502 11.215 18.896 21.614 GM Opel M Vectra Germany EU15 130.201 104.986 145.986 125.154 126.531 145.660 GM Saab M 9-3 Germany EU15 - - - - 70.079 72.830 VW Group Audi M 80 Germany EU15 ------VW Group Audi M A4 Germany EU15 229.558 339.512 313.027 361.584 292.233 356.065 VW Group Audi M Cabriolet Germany EU15 2.311 20.705 31.962 18.429 24.658 28.330 VW Group VW M Passat Germany EU15 384.485 440.555 310.446 417.294 292.968 384.273 Fiat Group Alfa Romeo M 145 Italy EU15 17.774 - - - - - Fiat Group Alfa Romeo M 146 Italy EU15 26.422 - - - - - Fiat Group Alfa Romeo M 147 Italy EU15 18.321 106.594 80.194 - - - Fiat Group Alfa Romeo M 149 Italy EU15 - - - 93.000 65.000 75.000 Fiat Group Fiat M Bravo Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Fiat M Bravo/Brava Italy EU15 151.013 - - - - - Fiat Group Fiat M Multipla Italy EU15 48.682 31.128 25.065 40.000 30.000 44.000 Fiat Group Fiat M Stilo Italy EU15 - 179.424 106.059 110.000 55.000 54.000 Fiat Group Fiat M Tipo Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Lancia M Delta Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Lancia M Stilnovo Italy EU15 - - - 34.000 19.000 23.500 Ford Ford M Focus RHT Italy EU15 - - - 34.000 25.500 32.000 GM Opel M Astra Italy EU15 25.861 35.252 13.395 - - - PSA Peugeot M 306 Italy EU15 1.065 2.095 - - - - Fiat Group Alfa Romeo M 155 Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Alfa Romeo M 156 Italy EU15 118.669 69.781 47.653 - - - Fiat Group Alfa Romeo M 159 Italy EU15 - - - 89.000 90.000 58.000 Fiat Group Fiat M Marea Italy EU15 75.048 12.937 - - - - Fiat Group Fiat M New Croma Italy EU15 - - - 28.000 27.000 19.000 Fiat Group Fiat M Tempra Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Lancia M Dedra Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Lancia M Lybra Italy EU15 51.037 20.614 8.263 - - - PSA Peugeot M 406 Italy EU15 15.585 10.476 3.926 - - - Mitsubishi Mitsubishi M Space Star Netherlands EU15 30.104 45.567 35.003 - - - Ford Volvo M 400 Ser. Netherlands EU15 ------Ford Volvo M S40/V40 Netherlands EU15 156.323 108.016 27.988 - - - Mitsubishi Mitsubishi M Carisma Netherlands EU15 28.658 28.785 - - - - VW Group VW M Coupe (Golf der.) Portugal EU15 - - - 30.000 32.500 42.000 VW Group VW M Eos Portugal EU15 - - - 54.000 42.000 51.000 Ford Ford M Escort Spain EU15 ------Ford Ford M Focus Spain EU15 197.114 151.639 257.267 177.771 211.682 225.295 PSA Citroen M Xsara Spain EU15 92.538 70.466 45.056 - - - PSA Citroen M Xsara Picasso Spain EU15 183.426 239.695 198.892 244.850 175.532 230.088 PSA Citroen M ZX Spain EU15 ------PSA Peugeot M 306 Spain EU15 76.691 6.298 - - - - Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 Renault-Nissan Nissan M Almera Tino Spain EU15 28.339 30.292 35.916 - - - Renault-Nissan Renault M 19 Spain EU15 ------Renault-Nissan Renault M Megane Spain EU15 248.065 210.203 279.716 174.901 224.374 288.793 VW Group Seat M Altea Spain EU15 - - 67.125 75.133 107.446 75.000 VW Group Seat M Leon Spain EU15 79.721 93.606 90.850 95.023 111.674 118.202 VW Group Seat M Toledo Spain EU15 - 39.503 38.962 21.548 35.107 30.876 Renault-Nissan Renault M Laguna Spain EU15 ------GM Saab M 9-2 Sweden EU15 - - - - 29.500 33.000 Ford Volvo M C70 (S40 derived) Sweden EU15 - - - 20.500 20.000 20.000 GM Cadillac M BLS Sweden EU15 - - - 4.500 36.000 26.000 GM Saab M 9-3 Sweden EU15 - 26.331 64.633 54.700 - - GM Saab M 900/9-3 Sweden EU15 69.063 41.645 - - - - Ford Ford M Escort United Kingdom EU15 30.269 - - - - - GM Opel M Astra United Kingdom EU15 103.038 30.071 125.981 75.000 120.000 130.000 GM Vauxhall M Astra United Kingdom EU15 51.083 18.261 - - - - Honda Honda M Civic United Kingdom EU15 39.642 91.335 86.868 92.000 118.000 112.000 PSA Peugeot M 306 United Kingdom EU15 ------Renault-Nissan Nissan M Almera United Kingdom EU15 115.336 97.005 93.355 - - - Renault-Nissan Nissan M Quashqai United Kingdom EU15 - - - 62.000 68.000 50.000 Rover Group Rover M 200 United Kingdom EU15 7 - - - - - Rover Group Rover M 25 United Kingdom EU15 76.853 38.146 23.821 - - - Rover Group Rover M 400 United Kingdom EU15 45 - - - - - Rover Group Rover M 45 United Kingdom EU15 49.863 26.408 14.951 - - - Rover Group Rover M Concerto United Kingdom EU15 ------Rover Group Rover M MG ZR United Kingdom EU15 - 22.593 19.614 - - - Rover Group Rover M MG ZS United Kingdom EU15 - 6.857 5.766 - - - Rover Group Rover M Tourer United Kingdom EU15 ------Toyota Toyota M Corolla United Kingdom EU15 56.580 139.041 66.986 135.000 140.000 145.000 Ford Jaguar M X-Type United Kingdom EU15 171 69.059 59.992 30.000 56.000 70.000 GM Opel M Vectra United Kingdom EU15 51.276 36.334 20.408 - - - GM Vauxhall M Cavalier United Kingdom EU15 ------GM Vauxhall M Vectra United Kingdom EU15 51.806 37.015 - - - - Honda Honda M Accord United Kingdom EU15 25.507 8.679 - - - - Renault-Nissan Nissan M Primera United Kingdom EU15 89.805 97.131 53.503 - - - Rover Group Rover M 600 United Kingdom EU15 ------Rover Group Rover M MG ZT United Kingdom EU15 - 6.886 6.846 - - - Rover Group Rover M R75 United Kingdom EU15 31.285 32.120 24.154 - - - Toyota Toyota M Avensis United Kingdom EU15 114.759 72.700 177.813 150.000 138.000 147.000 Toyota Toyota M Carina United Kingdom EU15 ------TOTAL M EU15 8.081.589 8.247.487 7.810.591 7.892.204 7.766.530 8.008.740 Rover Group Rover M Maestro Bulgaria CAND ------GM Daewoo M Cielo/Nexia/Lanos Romania CAND 2.880 5.356 4.722 - - - GM Daewoo M Rezzo/Tacuma Romania CAND - 216 - - - - Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 Renault-Nissan Dacia M 1210/1310/1410 Romania CAND 34.418 15.187 7.183 - - - Renault-Nissan Dacia M Logan Romania CAND - - 28.592 173.000 175.000 173.000 Renault-Nissan Dacia M Nova Romania CAND 8.185 29.248 - - - - GM Daewoo M Espero Romania CAND ------GM Daewoo M Nubira Romania CAND 2.586 1.642 1.308 - - - TOTAL M CAND 48.069 51.649 41.805 173.000 175.000 173.000 VW Group Skoda M Octavia Bosnia NON 394 1.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 AZLK Moskvitch M Unspec. Russia NON 20.000 100 - - - - AvtoVaz AvtoVaz M 21-Range Russia NON 705.500 702.540 717.980 350.000 245.000 216.000 AvtoVaz AvtoVaz M 2170 Russia NON - - - 160.000 175.000 173.000 AvtoVaz AvtoVaz M Siluet Russia NON - - - - 105.000 68.000 Chery Chery M A11 Russia NON - - - 11.000 15.000 43.000 Ford Ford M Focus Russia NON - 2.474 29.703 55.000 64.000 53.000 GM Chevrolet M Lacetti Russia NON - - - 5.000 6.200 5.000 GM Chevrolet M Rezzo Russia NON - - - 3.000 5.000 3.000 GM Chevrolet M Viva Russia NON - - - 1.300 - - Hyundai Hyundai M Accent Russia NON - 2.490 30.000 48.000 70.000 90.000 Hyundai Kia M Rio Russia NON - - - 19.000 37.000 53.000 Hyundai Kia M Spectra Russia NON - - 592 40.000 65.000 77.000 Izhmasch Izhmasch M Unspec. Russia NON 27.418 65.751 82.095 32.000 20.000 28.000 Renault-Nissan Renault M 19 Russia NON 440 - - - - - Renault-Nissan Renault M Logan Russia NON - - - 90.000 110.000 118.000 Renault-Nissan Renault M Megane Russia NON 540 289 - - - - Toyota Toyota M Corolla Russia NON - - - 3.000 20.000 39.000 VW Group Skoda M Octavia Russia NON - - - 15.000 43.000 43.000 VW Group VW M Jetta Russia NON - - - - 4.000 14.000 VW Group VW M Pointer Russia NON - - - - 115.000 110.000 BMW BMW M 3 Series Russia NON - 1.045 714 1.550 1.300 1.500 GM Chevrolet M Evanda Russia NON - - - 1.500 950 1.500 GM Opel M Vectra Russia NON 200 300 - - - - GM Opel M Astra Ukraine NON - - 2.046 4.300 5.500 4.500 Renault-Nissan Dacia M Nova Ukraine NON - - 3.500 - - - VW Group Skoda M Octavia Ukraine NON - 1.441 6.400 28.500 30.000 24.000 VW Group VW M Passat Ukraine NON - - 1.800 4.000 3.600 2.300 GM Chevrolet M Lacetti Uzbekistan NON - - 507 3.200 2.300 1.900 GM Chevrolet M Nexia Uzbekistan NON 13.950 13.146 39.079 66.000 56.000 50.000 TOTAL M NON 768.442 791.076 916.916 943.850 1.201.350 1.221.200 PSA Citroen S C1 Czech Republic EU10 - - - 48.000 40.000 38.000 PSA Peugeot S 107 Czech Republic EU10 - - - 75.000 63.000 52.000 Toyota Toyota S Aygo Czech Republic EU10 - - - 60.000 78.000 72.000 Hyundai Hyundai S Getz Czech Republic EU10 - - - 80.000 120.000 140.000 VW Group Skoda S Fabia Czech Republic EU10 175.780 253.805 238.830 270.000 210.000 260.000 VW Group Skoda S Felicia Czech Republic EU10 98.635 - - - - - Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 VW Group Skoda S Roomster Czech Republic EU10 - - - 70.000 59.000 73.000 GM Opel S Agila Hungary EU10 - - - 55.000 55.000 86.000 Suzuki Suzuki S Wagon R+ Hungary EU10 33.000 42.000 34.500 45.000 33.000 42.000 Subaru Subaru S G3X Justy Hungary EU10 - - 7.500 3.800 5.800 5.500 Subaru Subaru S Justy Hungary EU10 6.000 1.600 - - - - Suzuki Suzuki S Ignis Hungary EU10 - - 58.400 49.000 48.000 53.000 Suzuki Suzuki S Swift Hungary EU10 48.000 43.000 4.500 56.000 80.000 58.000 FSO FSO S Matiz Poland EU10 ------Fiat Group Fiat S 126 Poland EU10 13.000 - - - - - Fiat Group Fiat S Cinquecento Poland EU10 ------Fiat Group Fiat S Microcar/ New 500 Poland EU10 - - - 102.000 86.000 97.000 Fiat Group Fiat S Panda Poland EU10 - - 239.500 165.000 191.000 210.000 Fiat Group Fiat S Seicento Poland EU10 213.690 150.000 78.900 - - - Ford Ford S Ka Poland EU10 - - - 60.000 100.000 140.000 GM Daewoo S Matiz Poland EU10 46.345 10.000 7.000 - - - GM Daewoo S Tico Poland EU10 14.950 - - - - - GM Opel S Agila Poland EU10 67.733 76.280 51.031 - - - Suzuki Suzuki S Wagon R+ Poland EU10 ------Fiat Group Fiat S Palio Poland EU10 6.541 10.000 1.000 - - - Fiat Group Fiat S Punto Poland EU10 8.330 - - - - - Fiat Group Fiat S Siena Poland EU10 6.541 - - - - - Fiat Group Fiat S Uno Poland EU10 20.740 2.500 - - - - Ford Ford S Fiesta Poland EU10 1.700 - - - - - VW Group Seat S Cordoba Poland EU10 ------VW Group Skoda S Fabia Poland EU10 10.980 25.725 - - - - VW Group Skoda S Felicia Poland EU10 25.173 - - - - - VW Group VW S Polo Poland EU10 ------VW Group VW S Caddy Poland EU10 - - 40.553 55.000 48.000 50.000 PSA Citroen S C3 Slovak Republic EU10 - - - - 105.000 120.000 PSA Peugeot S 207 Slovak Republic EU10 - - - 225.000 13.000 - PSA Peugeot S 208 Slovak Republic EU10 - - - - 177.000 240.000 VW Group Seat S Ibiza Slovak Republic EU10 - - 20.499 - - - VW Group VW S Polo Slovak Republic EU10 77.777 195.399 64.343 60.000 55.000 59.000 Renault-Nissan Renault S Twingo Slovenia EU10 - - - 205.000 170.000 210.000 Renault-Nissan Renault S 5 Slovenia EU10 ------Renault-Nissan Renault S Clio Slovenia EU10 117.000 130.000 110.000 15.000 - - TOTAL S EU10 991.915 940.309 956.556 1.698.800 1.736.800 2.005.500 VW Group VW S Lupo Belgium EU15 - 65.297 24.360 - - - Renault-Nissan Renault S Clio Belgium EU15 ------DaimlerChrysler Smart S Fortwo France EU15 101.365 122.836 80.285 125.000 98.000 118.000 PSA Citroen S C2 France EU15 - - 139.753 74.000 132.000 75.000 PSA Peugeot S 1007 France EU15 - - 1.170 25.000 84.000 35.000 Renault-Nissan Renault S Twingo France EU15 188.342 143.305 82.948 - - - Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 PSA Citroen S AX France EU15 ------PSA Citroen S C3 France EU15 - 153.703 253.418 168.000 116.000 220.000 PSA Citroen S Saxo France EU15 242.703 145.817 - - - - PSA Peugeot S 106 France EU15 132.470 67.176 - - - - PSA Peugeot S 205 France EU15 ------PSA Peugeot S 206 France EU15 488.357 549.000 431.239 7.200 - - PSA Peugeot S 207 France EU15 - - - 300.000 170.000 - PSA Peugeot S 208 France EU15 - - - - 25.000 224.000 Renault-Nissan Renault S Clio France EU15 191.281 194.111 185.079 306.000 270.000 264.000 Toyota Toyota S Yaris France EU15 - 136.972 203.713 264.000 220.000 288.000 Renault-Nissan Renault S Kangoo France EU15 113.726 101.764 122.860 137.000 110.000 142.000 VW Group Seat S Arosa Germany EU15 ------VW Group VW S Lupo Germany EU15 97.403 5.080 4 - - - Ford Ford S B-SUV Germany EU15 - - - - 39.963 48.114 Ford Ford S Fiesta Germany EU15 169.657 201.461 288.940 287.300 255.415 282.268 Ford Ford S Fiesta Van Germany EU15 - - - - - 8.200 Ford Ford S Fusion Germany EU15 - 55.602 82.839 46.191 - - GM Opel S Corsa Germany EU15 82.081 82.351 144.865 163.309 108.038 134.160 VW Group Audi S A2 Germany EU15 32.164 37.578 19.745 24.579 48.645 58.244 VW Group VW S Polo Germany EU15 ------Fiat Group Fiat S Panda Italy EU15 94.115 102.132 - - - - Fiat Group Fiat S Seicento Italy EU15 41 33 - - - - Fiat Group Fiat S Idea Italy EU15 - - 61.735 27.000 55.000 66.000 Fiat Group Fiat S Punto Italy EU15 604.312 439.170 320.761 353.580 365.000 240.150 Fiat Group Fiat S Uno Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Lancia S Musa Italy EU15 - - 14.528 24.500 37.500 43.000 Fiat Group Lancia S Y10 Italy EU15 ------Fiat Group Lancia S Ypsilon Italy EU15 110.107 80.458 85.262 54.000 67.320 77.000 Mitsubishi Mitsubishi S New Colt Italy EU15 - - - 11.500 8.000 8.000 DaimlerChrysler Smart S Forfour Netherlands EU15 - - 72.565 32.500 48.000 27.000 Mitsubishi Mitsubishi S New Colt Netherlands EU15 - - 52.044 44.000 53.000 61.000 GM Opel S Corsa Portugal EU15 10.472 - - - - - PSA Citroen S AX Portugal EU15 ------PSA Citroen S Saxo Portugal EU15 24.638 - - - - - Renault-Nissan Renault S Clio Portugal EU15 ------GM Opel S Combo Portugal EU15 4.953 18.767 20.010 25.000 18.000 20.500 PSA Citroen S Berlingo Portugal EU15 16.198 21.541 21.794 26.000 23.500 25.000 PSA Peugeot S Partner Portugal EU15 8.911 12.260 13.317 16.000 14.500 16.000 Ford Ford S Ka Spain EU15 146.680 137.836 78.642 25.213 - - Renault-Nissan Renault S Twingo Spain EU15 ------VW Group Seat S Arosa Spain EU15 28.398 19.627 9.368 - - - VW Group Seat S Marbella Spain EU15 ------Ford Ford S Fiesta Spain EU15 - 84.114 71.783 - - - Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 Ford Ford S Fusion Spain EU15 - - - 27.695 69.413 78.856 Ford Mazda S 2/Demio Spain EU15 - - 41.409 - - - GM Opel S Corsa Spain EU15 372.787 369.120 225.957 206.333 140.366 180.000 GM Opel S Meriva Spain EU15 - 431 196.046 128.996 215.321 181.530 PSA Citroen S AX Spain EU15 ------PSA Citroen S C3 Spain EU15 - 46.103 69.929 - - - PSA Citroen S C3 Pluriel Spain EU15 - 189 23.102 7.542 - - PSA Peugeot S 205 Spain EU15 ------PSA Peugeot S 207 Spain EU15 - - - 157.783 113.119 - PSA Peugeot S 208 Spain EU15 - - - - - 143.158 Renault-Nissan Renault S Clio Spain EU15 237.340 245.158 110.459 52.008 43.954 46.370 Renault-Nissan Renault S Modus Spain EU15 - - 99.211 113.781 199.635 179.789 VW Group Seat S Cordoba Spain EU15 94.731 57.871 46.821 24.715 - - VW Group Seat S Ibiza Spain EU15 199.258 197.310 163.255 123.500 175.006 196.260 VW Group VW S Polo Spain EU15 355.052 258.723 232.496 156.018 234.157 260.244 Rover Group Rover S Mini Classic United Kingdom EU15 7.225 - - - - - BMW Mini S Mini New United Kingdom EU15 - 159.845 189.136 252.000 260.000 215.000 Ford Ford S Fiesta United Kingdom EU15 122.830 12.904 - - - - Ford Mazda S 121/Revue United Kingdom EU15 1.986 - - - - - PSA Peugeot S 206 United Kingdom EU15 186.074 197.679 173.091 20.000 - - Renault-Nissan Nissan S Micra United Kingdom EU15 122.560 103.197 172.799 122.000 155.000 175.000 Renault-Nissan Nissan S Note United Kingdom EU15 - - - 80.000 72.000 72.000 Rover Group Rover S 100 United Kingdom EU15 ------TOTAL S EU15 4.588.217 4.626.521 4.626.738 4.039.243 4.044.852 4.208.843 GM Daewoo S Matiz Romania CAND 8.871 11.466 20.626 - - - GM Daewoo S Tico Romania CAND 6.077 - - - - - Renault-Nissan Dacia S Solenza Romania CAND - - 36.371 - - - GM Daewoo S Damas Romania CAND 10 - - - - - TOTAL S CAND 14.958 11.466 56.997 - - - VW Group Skoda S Fabia Bosnia NON 1.596 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000 VW Group Skoda S Felicia Bosnia NON 1.098 - - - - - KamAZ Kamaz S Oka Russia NON 33.604 38.743 41.207 - - - SeAZ Seaz S Oka Russia NON 15.600 19.265 19.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 AvtoVaz AvtoVaz S 1118 Kalina Russia NON - - 5 200.000 144.000 150.000 Fiat Group Fiat S Albea Russia NON - - - 20.000 26.000 31.000 Fiat Group Fiat S Palio Russia NON - - - 10.000 12.000 13.000 GM Chevrolet S Aveo Russia NON - - - 9.500 12.000 12.000 Hyundai Kia S Unspec. Russia NON 839 1.565 8.546 - - - Renault-Nissan Renault S Clio Russia NON - 149 517 - - - Tata Tata S Indigo Russia NON - - - 25.000 29.000 39.000 VW Group Skoda S Fabia Russia NON - - - - 3.000 24.000 Fiat Group Fiat S Doblo Russia NON - - - 9.000 14.000 19.000 Zastava Zastava S Punto Serbia NON - - - 16.500 16.500 17.000 Group Make Seg. Model Country_ Reg. 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012 2020 Zastava Zastava S Yugo/Florida Serbia NON 3.000 5.000 13.600 13.000 13.000 13.000 VW Group Skoda S Fabia Ukraine NON - 569 2.340 7.000 7.700 6.500 GM Chevrolet S Matiz Uzbekistan NON - 9.485 19.856 35.000 25.000 19.000 GM Chevrolet S Tico Uzbekistan NON 9.100 5.522 1.133 - - - GM Chevrolet S Damas Uzbekistan NON 7.650 6.563 9.495 15.000 12.200 10.500 TOTAL S NON 72.487 89.861 118.699 388.000 337.400 372.000
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12 Annex 4 – Final TREMOVE runs for Cost-effectiveness analysis and Scenario Building
Summary
D20 D21 D22 D23 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 Sum of Consumer + Producter surplus 4 039 1 021 -5 848 -17 124 1 555 7 877 11 095 12 564 21 482 - caused by fix resource cost -17 619 -41 165 -67 848 -98 384 -69 370 -72 723 -73 762 -73 777 -48 987 - caused by var resource cost 10 045 19 935 29 701 39 434 33 641 38 009 40 014 39 046 31 091 - caused by fix tax -684 -1 608 -2 668 -3 882 -2 737 -2 888 -2 917 -2 918 -1 944 - caused by var tax 11 085 22 037 32 858 43 662 36 956 41 506 43 323 45 581 36 654 - caused by VAT on fix res cost -2 008 -4 694 -7 738 -11 223 -7 912 -8 294 -8 297 -8 299 -5 470 - caused by VAT on var res cost 3 303 6 559 9 777 12 988 11 031 12 423 12 652 12 872 10 218 - caused by network cost -0 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 10 10 10 - caused by other costs -0 -0 -1 -1 -1 -0 112 112 112 - caused by in-vehicle time price -81 -51 41 206 -80 -186 -243 -270 -398 - caused by waiting time price -3 -5 -6 -6 -9 -11 -12 -13 -12 - from other effects 3 13 35 81 36 43 216 221 208 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -9 063 -18 092 -27 037 -35 999 -30 328 -34 004 -35 688 -37 552 -30 152 Sum of Welfare (general) -5 024 -17 072 -32 884 -53 123 -28 773 -26 126 -24 593 -24 988 -8 671 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 74 103 96 53 136 170 187 194 213 Sum of CH4 exhaust -13 -83 -182 -314 -131 -93 -53 -53 62 Sum of CO exhaust 21 147 30 731 31 624 23 513 43 377 53 352 67 005 69 264 72 094 Sum of CO2 exhaust -87 318 901 -175 471 200 -263 811 467 -352 957 846 -295 611 779 -331 961 833 -349 766 991 -368 027 926 -294 297 199 Sum of N2O exhaust 259 163 -140 -676 232 550 894 966 1 378 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 1 441 1 611 902 -723 2 065 3 011 4 092 4 248 5 305 Sum of NOx exhaust -2 147 -5 942 -10 304 -15 462 -7 820 -5 637 -16 646 -16 078 -11 079 Sum of PM exhaust -199 -559 -959 -1 416 -750 -566 -246 -199 257 Sum of PM non-exhaust 49 10 -77 -221 12 86 177 192 305 Sum of SO2 exhaust -555 -1 107 -1 652 -2 199 -1 862 -2 098 -2 221 -2 336 -1 883 Sum of VOC exhaust 1 425 1 526 722 -1 026 1 932 2 912 4 029 4 186 5 352 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -6 078 -12 165 -18 218 -24 309 -20 362 -22 809 -23 772 -25 002 -19 792 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -11 470 653 -23 033 708 -34 605 068 -46 274 623 -38 822 551 -43 637 639 -46 026 685 -48 440 991 -38 791 897 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -2 931 -5 893 -8 840 -11 825 -10 030 -11 389 -12 239 -12 922 -10 489 Sum of FC -27 610 420 -55 482 352 -83 416 865 -111 601 780 -93 487 348 -104 998 327 -110 657 089 -116 439 578 -93 128 617 D20 D21 D22 D23 Net Welfare M€ -5 024,0 -17 071,9 -32 884,3 -53 123,2 -28 773,1 -26 126,1 -24 593,3 -24 988,0 -8 670,9 CO2 eq WtW Mt -99,7 -200,5 -301,5 -403,5 -337,8 -379,3 -399,7 -420,6 -336,2 Cost-effectiveness €/t 50,38 85,15 109,07 131,66 85,18 68,87 61,53 59,41 25,79 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain Summary
D29 D30 D31 D32 135B 130B D22B 120B 135C Sum of Consumer + Producter surplus 21 704 22 819 18 668 10 407 8 692 11 878 11 748 8 793 12 168 - caused by fix resource cost -52 982 -52 979 -60 754 -72 652 -13 626 -31 836 -52 472 -76 088 -10 645 - caused by var resource cost 33 182 28 355 30 371 32 611 10 079 20 001 29 801 39 566 10 102 - caused by fix tax -2 127 -2 127 -2 486 -3 026 -519 -1 221 -2 026 -2 948 -397 - caused by var tax 38 743 44 495 46 618 49 015 11 087 22 042 32 865 43 671 11 091 - caused by VAT on fix res cost -5 470 -5 470 -5 467 -5 461 -1 553 -3 630 -5 985 -8 680 -1 213 - caused by VAT on var res cost 10 475 10 681 10 939 11 228 3 308 6 569 9 792 13 007 3 311 - caused by network cost 77-11 -43 0 -0 0 00 - caused by other costs 95 95 -100 -458 -0 -0 -0 -1 -0 - caused by in-vehicle time price -404 -433 -361 -216 -81 -51 -244 206 -81 - caused by waiting time price -13 -14 -14 -13 -3 -5 -10 -6 -3 - from other effects 196 208 -67 -577 210 28 65 3 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -32 335 -37 121 -39 662 -42 786 -9 013 -17 992 -26 886 -35 799 -8 976 Sum of Welfare (general) -10 631 -14 302 -20 994 -32 379 -321 -6 113 -15 138 -27 006 3 191 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 208 210 187 157 73 101 257 52 72 Sum of CH4 exhaust 60 32 -26 -132 -13 -82 -50 -309 -13 Sum of CO exhaust 74 248 75 865 68 780 55 934 20 810 30 241 71 410 23 138 20 556 Sum of CO2 exhaust -315 310 320 -361 855 558 -384 946 012 -412 670 910 -85 927 329 -172 674 774 -259 578 416 -347 332 873 -84 881 021 Sum of N2O exhaust 1 407 1 457 1 161 598 254 161 795 -665 251 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 5 272 5 187 3 850 1 470 1 418 1 586 4 947 -712 1 401 Sum of NOx exhaust -14 217 -13 622 -14 196 -14 541 -2 113 -5 847 -8 148 -15 216 -2 087 Sum of PM exhaust 325 371 173 -246 -196 -551 -814 -1 393 -193 Sum of PM non-exhaust 300 306 166 -96 48 10 148 -217 47 Sum of SO2 exhaust -2 017 -2 305 -2 436 -2 580 -546 -1 089 -1 651 -2 164 -540 Sum of VOC exhaust 5 316 5 208 3 819 1 345 1 402 1 502 4 886 -1 010 1 385 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -20 950 -24 041 -25 337 -26 912 -5 981 -11 971 -18 029 -23 922 -5 908 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -41 584 699 -47 727 841 -50 790 354 -54 478 941 -11 287 849 -22 666 627 -34 109 350 -45 537 159 -11 150 401 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -11 380 -13 107 -14 069 -15 288 -2 884 -5 799 -8 764 -11 636 -2 849 Sum of FC -99 793 081 -114 530 790 -121 852 354 -130 651 281 -27 170 402 -54 598 148 -82 087 478 -109 823 220 -26 839 557
Net Welfare M€ -10 630,9 -14 301,8 -20 994,2 -32 379,0 -320,8 -6 113,5 -15 138,2 -27 005,8 3 191,4 CO2 eq WtW Mt -360,3 -413,6 -440,1 -472,1 -98,1 -197,3 -296,5 -397,1 -96,9 Cost-effectiveness €/t 29,50 34,58 47,70 68,58 3,27 30,99 51,06 68,01 -32,92 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million Positive number = Welfare gain Summary
130C D22C 120C D27B D23+C D27+C D27B+C D27Y D27Z Sum of Consumer + Producter surplus 19 992 24 904 28 189 30 212 2 271 27 163 41 802 5 260 9 115 - caused by fix resource cost -24 870 -40 991 -59 439 -58 394 -81 735 -61 293 -48 512 -92 015 -21 620 - caused by var resource cost 20 047 29 869 39 657 39 150 39 525 39 136 39 241 44 688 12 161 - caused by fix tax -933 -1 548 -2 253 -2 276 -3 188 -2 396 -1 869 -3 660 -854 - caused by var tax 22 049 32 876 43 686 45 603 43 677 45 597 45 618 51 711 13 625 - caused by VAT on fix res cost -2 836 -4 676 -6 781 -6 545 -9 324 -6 895 -5 437 -10 158 -2 351 - caused by VAT on var res cost 6 576 9 803 13 022 12 889 13 003 12 886 12 903 14 513 3 877 - caused by network cost -0 0 0 10 -0 55 92 - caused by other costs -0 -0 -0 112 -1 96 96 106 22 - caused by in-vehicle time price -51 -458 206 -557 206 -270 -557 -161 -97 - caused by waiting time price -5 -13 -6 -17 -6 -13 -17 -12 -4 - from other effects 15 42 97 235 113 309 330 239 4 354 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -17 919 -26 777 -35 654 -37 426 -35 854 -37 400 -37 274 -42 877 -42 746 Sum of Welfare (general) 2 074 -1 873 -7 465 -7 214 -33 582 -10 237 4 528 -37 617 -15 637 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 100 374 51 0 52 191 0 0 352 Sum of CH4 exhaust -81 51 -305 80 -310 -52 79 -136 32 Sum of CO exhaust 29 873 100 049 22 856 0 23 231 68 434 0 0 110 611 Sum of CO2 exhaust -170 572 172 -256 398 281 -343 103 519 -363 974 435 -348 728 492 -363 617 994 -359 613 074 -428 161 908 -423 345 513 Sum of N2O exhaust 159 1 494 -657 1 906 -668 955 1 883 607 1 778 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 1 566 7 903 -703 0 -715 4 197 0 0 7 981 Sum of NOx exhaust -5 776 -6 215 -15 031 0 -15 277 -15 885 0 0 -17 540 Sum of PM exhaust -544 -675 -1 376 0 -1 399 -197 0 0 -209 Sum of PM non-exhaust 10 316 -214 0 -218 190 0 0 375 Sum of SO2 exhaust -1 076 -1 649 -2 137 0 -2 172 -2 308 0 0 -2 706 Sum of VOC exhaust 1 484 7 932 -998 0 -1 014 4 136 0 0 7 990 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -11 825 -17 886 -23 631 -24 826 -24 018 -24 703 -24 529 -29 063 -28 858 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -22 390 624 -33 735 097 -44 982 669 -47 968 369 -45 720 132 -47 860 542 -47 393 583 -56 329 942 -55 770 896 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -5 728 -8 700 -11 494 -12 849 -11 683 -12 767 -12 695 -15 022 -14 935 Sum of FC -53 933 325 -81 087 927 -108 485 940 0 -110 264 501 -115 044 328 0 0 -133 947 264
Net Welfare M€ 2 073,6 -1 873,3 -7 464,8 -7 214,0 -33 582,2 -10 237,0 4 527,6 -37 617,2 -33 631,2 CO2 eq WtW Mt -194,9 -292,7 -392,2 -415,8 -398,7 -415,5 -410,8 -489,4 -483,7 Cost-effectiveness €/t -10,64 6,40 19,03 17,35 84,24 24,64 -11,02 76,86 69,53 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million Positive number = Welfare gain Summary
D27Y+C D27Z+C GSI TPMS N1-15g LRRT MAC N1-30g LVL Sum of Consumer + Producter surplus 23 418 15 106 7 402 6 323 3 218 1 469 2 049 222 1 115 - caused by fix resource cost -76 444 -17 962 -1 522 -3 353 -1 039 -15 -1 893 -3 995 3 - caused by var resource cost 44 792 12 189 3 939 4 368 2 005 -968 1 812 2 091 -4 827 - caused by fix tax -3 005 -701 -70 -151 -29 -1 -85 -183 0 - caused by var tax 51 728 13 629 4 098 4 550 1 817 2 258 1 894 2 089 5 752 - caused by VAT on fix res cost -8 439 -1 953 -173 -382 -3 -2 -215 -0 0 - caused by VAT on var res cost 14 529 3 882 1 254 1 391 229 220 564 257 206 - caused by network cost 51 0 0 10 0 -0 -2 -0 - caused by other costs 91 19 0 0 112 0 0 -17 0 - caused by in-vehicle time price -161 -97 -122 -105 -57 -27 -36 -6 -29 - caused by waiting time price -12 -4 -3 -2 -0 -1 -1 -0 -2 - from other effects 335 6 103 1 7 173 5 9 -12 11 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -42 703 -42 573 -3 291 -3 676 -1 685 -1 864 -1 544 -2 182 -4 786 Sum of Welfare (general) -37 617 -15 637 4 111 2 647 1 533 -395 505 -1 960 -3 671 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 0 348 41 34 17 7 12 -4 1 Sum of CH4 exhaust -134 31 51 38 40 0 15 -2 -28 Sum of CO exhaust 0 109 286 11 754 9 975 13 653 2 259 3 722 2 154 1 617 Sum of CO2 exhaust -423 031 414 -418 272 732 -31 800 312 -36 350 054 -17 805 158 -18 260 935 -14 609 539 -21 013 121 -46 545 239 Sum of N2O exhaust 599 1 757 372 318 344 73 107 29 51 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 0 7 885 1 163 946 1 081 156 347 -33 -85 Sum of NOx exhaust 0 -17 330 2 484 2 183 -11 008 568 636 -3 138 594 Sum of PM exhaust 0 -206 209 184 320 47 56 68 46 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0 371 89 75 90 15 26 -5 6 Sum of SO2 exhaust 0 -2 674 -210 -236 -123 -115 -93 -133 -289 Sum of VOC exhaust 0 7 894 1 210 980 1 116 157 362 -36 -109 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -28 715 -28 512 -2 144 -2 447 -963 -1 230 -843 -1 158 -3 091 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -55 654 963 -55 102 615 -4 217 483 -4 815 088 -2 389 046 -2 414 307 -1 922 266 -2 792 802 -6 143 142 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -14 842 -14 756 -1 190 -1 359 -850 -682 -515 -890 -1 727 Sum of FC 0 -132 342 227 -10 070 483 -11 510 978 -5 658 762 -5 782 489 -4 623 553 -6 664 464 -14 737 709
Net Welfare M€ -19 285,4 -27 467,4 4 111,3 2 646,9 1 532,8 -394,7 504,7 -1 960,0 -3 671,0 CO2 eq WtW Mt -483,6 -477,9 -36,3 -41,5 -20,4 -20,9 -16,7 -24,1 -53,3 Cost-effectiveness €/t 39,88 57,48 -113,23 -63,74 -75,27 18,90 -30,28 81,37 68,93 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million Positive number = Welfare gain Summary
N1-45 N1-60 Sum of Consumer + Producter surplus -4 151 -8 260 - caused by fix resource cost -7 775 -11 898 - caused by var resource cost 2 016 2 240 - caused by fix tax -359 -540 - caused by var tax 2 123 2 397 - caused by VAT on fix res cost 36 - caused by VAT on var res cost 257 289 - caused by network cost -18 -33 - caused by other costs -196 -358 - caused by in-vehicle time price 72 144 - caused by waiting time price 01 - from other effects -275 -509 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -2 541 -3 124 Sum of Welfare (general) -6 692 -11 385 Sum of C6H6 exhaust -22 -30 Sum of CH4 exhaust -58 -107 Sum of CO exhaust -7 085 -12 846 Sum of CO2 exhaust -23 090 454 -27 724 898 Sum of N2O exhaust -296 -563 Sum of NMVOC exhaust -1 337 -2 380 Sum of NOx exhaust -574 -345 Sum of PM exhaust -198 -419 Sum of PM non-exhaust -139 -262 Sum of SO2 exhaust -130 -145 Sum of VOC exhaust -1 389 -2 474 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -1 296 -1 574 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -3 062 513 -3 688 587 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -963 -1 218 Sum of FC -7 321 564 -8 798 927
Net Welfare M€ -6 692,4 -11 384,8 CO2 eq WtW Mt -26,6 -32,0 Cost-effectiveness €/t 252,00 356,00 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D20 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -155,7 -493,4 -1 013,4 -1 541,1 -2 073,2 -2 607,9 -3 143,6 -3 678,2 -4 209,4 -4 733,7 -17 619 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 111,8 318,8 631,4 931,3 1 211,9 1 499,7 1 777,9 2 049,7 2 313,0 2 570,0 10 045 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -6,1 -19,0 -39,1 -59,7 -80,4 -101,2 -122,1 -142,9 -163,6 -184,1 -684 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 120,5 351,3 704,4 1 048,8 1 376,7 1 686,5 1 977,7 2 252,4 2 511,6 2 757,6 11 085 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -17,6 -55,9 -114,9 -175,0 -235,7 -296,8 -358,2 -419,6 -480,7 -541,2 -2 008 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 36,1 104,2 207,9 308,6 403,8 497,5 587,0 673,1 755,7 835,4 3 303 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 -0,0 0,0 -0,0 0,0 -0,0 0,0 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 0 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 0 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -1,5 -3,8 -7,1 -9,7 -11,6 -13,2 -14,2 -14,7 -15,0 -15,0 -81 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,1 -0,1 -0,3 -0,4 -0,5 -0,5 -0,6 -0,7 -0,7 -0,8 -3 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,5 0,6 0,8 1,0 3 Sum of utility of households 12,1 80,1 188,1 347,0 477,6 568,7 646,8 696,2 724,6 733,1 729,3 3 983 Sum of production costs 1,8 7,3 14,0 22,0 25,4 22,5 17,7 8,2 -4,9 -21,5 -40,1 56 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -96,6 -283,9 -571,3 -852,9 -1 122,3 -1 377,4 -1 618,1 -1 845,9 -2 061,5 -2 266,3 -9 063 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 0,0 0,8 1,9 3,5 5,3 6,8 8,4 10,0 11,3 12,5 13,5 74,1 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,1 -0,4 -0,7 -0,6 -0,5 -0,6 -0,8 -1,1 -1,7 -2,6 -3,7 -12,9 Sum of CO exhaust 15,7 179,0 446,2 864,1 1 355,7 1 857,4 2 367,2 2 858,8 3 320,2 3 746,0 4 136,5 21 146,8 Sum of CO2 exhaust -613 716,7 -1 745 139,1 -3 470 560,9 -5 143 591,5 -6 746 317,2 -8 264 022,4 -9 692 624,2 -11 046 730,2 -12 331 734,5 -13 559 105,6 -14 705 359,2 -87 318 901,4 Sum of N2O exhaust 0,1 3,8 9,5 17,4 23,8 28,2 32,1 34,6 36,0 36,6 36,5 258,6 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 1,0 16,7 40,2 73,3 107,7 138,2 168,7 194,9 216,8 234,6 249,2 1 441,2 Sum of NOx exhaust -14,5 -72,0 -128,1 -156,3 -173,4 -187,8 -208,5 -238,2 -275,8 -320,9 -371,3 -2 146,8 Sum of PM exhaust -0,8 -4,6 -8,3 -10,3 -12,6 -15,5 -19,1 -23,6 -28,8 -34,6 -40,7 -199,0 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 0,7 1,8 3,5 4,7 5,5 6,2 6,5 6,7 6,6 6,3 48,5 Sum of SO2 exhaust -3,8 -11,1 -22,1 -32,8 -43,0 -52,6 -61,7 -70,3 -78,4 -86,1 -93,3 -555,1 Sum of VOC exhaust 0,8 16,2 39,2 72,4 106,8 137,2 167,6 193,3 214,6 231,4 245,1 1 424,5 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -38,0 -111,1 -225,1 -339,5 -451,4 -560,4 -666,3 -770,1 -872,0 -972,9 -1 070,8 -6 077,7 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -80 734,9 -229 350,6 -455 826,3 -675 732,0 -886 192,0 -1 085 466,7 -1 273 179,4 -1 451 122,3 -1 619 976,6 -1 781 230,3 -1 931 842,3 -11 470 653,3 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -22,0 -60,3 -117,9 -173,7 -227,1 -277,6 -325,1 -370,1 -412,8 -453,4 -491,3 -2 931,1 Sum of FC -194 244,3 -552 074,2 -1 097 647,1 -1 626 636,6 -2 133 377,3 -2 613 198,5 -3 064 841,3 -3 492 908,1 -3 899 105,2 -4 287 057,4 -4 649 329,9 -27 610 419,9
Net Welfare 10,0 -9,2 -81,8 -202,4 -350,0 -531,1 -713,0 -913,7 -1 126,2 -1 349,9 -1 577,2 -5 024 D20 CO2 eq WtW -0,7 -2,0 -4,0 -5,9 -7,7 -9,4 -11,1 -12,6 -14,1 -15,5 -16,8 -99,7 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D21 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -357,1 -1 115,7 -2 341,3 -3 582,2 -4 834,4 -6 093,5 -7 356,5 -8 617,7 -9 871,8 -11 110,3 -41 165 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 216,4 634,8 1 255,4 1 847,6 2 402,8 2 974,0 3 527,7 4 070,0 4 596,2 5 110,7 19 935 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -14,0 -43,3 -91,2 -139,7 -188,6 -237,9 -287,3 -336,8 -386,1 -434,8 -1 608 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 236,2 702,6 1 404,1 2 087,6 2 738,1 3 352,9 3 931,1 4 477,0 4 992,3 5 481,3 22 037 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -40,4 -126,4 -265,5 -406,9 -549,9 -694,0 -838,9 -983,8 -1 128,2 -1 271,1 -4 694 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 70,3 207,9 413,9 613,2 801,8 987,8 1 165,6 1 337,0 1 501,6 1 660,6 6 559 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 0 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 0 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -2,1 -5,3 -8,2 -9,9 -9,9 -9,5 -8,0 -5,8 -3,2 -0,2 -51 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,1 -0,2 -0,4 -0,6 -0,7 -0,8 -0,9 -1,0 -1,0 -1,1 -5 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,7 1,0 1,6 2,2 2,9 3,8 4,8 13 Sum of utility of households 12,1 104,7 250,6 381,8 452,6 443,3 407,5 314,8 181,0 9,1 -184,9 1 997 Sum of production costs 1,8 4,6 3,8 -14,8 -42,8 -83,1 -127,0 -179,8 -239,4 -305,7 -375,4 -976 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -190,7 -570,5 -1 144,5 -1 706,0 -2 242,5 -2 750,5 -3 229,6 -3 683,2 -4 112,3 -4 519,9 -18 092 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 0,2 1,5 3,5 5,7 8,1 10,0 12,0 13,6 14,9 16,0 17,0 102,6 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,3 -1,0 -2,0 -3,1 -4,4 -5,9 -7,8 -10,0 -12,8 -16,1 -19,8 -83,2 Sum of CO exhaust 46,3 313,6 805,6 1 451,7 2 178,7 2 872,8 3 547,7 4 155,2 4 687,6 5 142,7 5 529,2 30 731,1 Sum of CO2 exhaust -1 190 451,3 -3 488 847,0 -6 937 881,0 -10 308 966,5 -13 538 828,2 -16 598 929,6 -19 481 348,2 -22 215 247,2 -24 810 865,2 -27 291 070,4 -29 608 765,7 -175 471 200,2 Sum of N2O exhaust 0,3 5,5 13,6 20,7 24,9 25,2 24,5 21,4 16,3 9,4 1,6 163,4 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 3,6 27,1 65,4 105,6 143,9 171,9 198,7 216,4 226,0 228,0 224,8 1 611,5 Sum of NOx exhaust -40,8 -143,5 -257,0 -349,2 -426,2 -502,4 -594,1 -705,0 -831,2 -971,4 -1 120,9 -5 941,7 Sum of PM exhaust -2,8 -10,0 -18,4 -26,6 -35,4 -45,1 -56,2 -69,1 -83,2 -98,5 -114,2 -559,5 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 0,9 2,4 3,5 3,8 3,4 2,6 1,4 -0,4 -2,6 -4,9 10,3 Sum of SO2 exhaust -7,4 -22,1 -44,0 -65,3 -85,7 -104,9 -123,1 -140,2 -156,3 -171,7 -185,9 -1 106,7 Sum of VOC exhaust 3,2 25,9 62,9 102,1 139,2 165,7 190,7 206,1 213,1 211,9 205,3 1 526,2 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -74,0 -222,1 -449,5 -678,6 -902,7 -1 121,2 -1 333,8 -1 541,9 -1 746,4 -1 948,9 -2 145,5 -12 164,6 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -156 293,2 -458 034,9 -910 682,5 -1 353 457,0 -1 777 324,7 -2 178 819,0 -2 557 223,0 -2 916 155,6 -3 256 885,9 -3 582 355,8 -3 886 476,5 -23 033 708,0 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -41,5 -119,1 -234,6 -347,6 -455,7 -557,8 -654,1 -745,3 -831,8 -914,2 -991,1 -5 892,8 Sum of FC -376 641,9 -1 103 506,0 -2 194 082,3 -3 259 982,4 -4 281 185,8 -5 248 639,2 -6 159 894,9 -7 024 146,3 -7 844 629,2 -8 628 571,5 -9 361 072,4 -55 482 351,9
Net Welfare 10,0 -81,4 -316,2 -777,5 -1 296,2 -1 882,4 -2 470,0 -3 094,7 -3 741,6 -4 408,8 -5 080,1 -17 072 D21 CO2 eq WtW -1,4 -4,0 -7,9 -11,8 -15,5 -19,0 -22,3 -25,4 -28,3 -31,2 -33,8 -200,5 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D22 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -537,7 -1 775,7 -3 814,5 -5 875,8 -7 957,2 -10 051,4 -12 153,6 -14 254,2 -16 344,3 -18 409,8 -67 848 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 316,0 939,6 1 865,4 2 746,8 3 574,7 4 428,2 5 257,5 6 071,4 6 862,8 7 637,5 29 701 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -20,9 -69,2 -149,4 -230,5 -312,4 -395,0 -477,9 -560,9 -643,7 -725,6 -2 668 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 346,9 1 042,5 2 090,2 3 110,2 4 081,5 4 999,9 5 864,2 6 680,5 7 451,4 8 183,3 32 858 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -60,8 -201,2 -432,7 -667,6 -905,3 -1 145,0 -1 386,2 -1 627,7 -1 868,4 -2 106,7 -7 738 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 102,9 308,1 615,6 912,7 1 194,3 1 472,1 1 738,2 1 994,9 2 241,7 2 480,4 9 777 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 -0,0 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 0 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -1 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -2,8 -5,6 -6,0 -4,6 -0,8 3,6 9,5 16,3 23,8 31,6 41 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,1 -0,3 -0,6 -0,7 -0,9 -1,0 -1,0 -1,1 -1,1 -1,1 -6 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 0,1 0,2 0,6 1,5 2,6 4,2 6,0 8,2 10,9 13,9 35 Sum of utility of households 12,1 139,2 254,9 250,8 154,0 -63,7 -321,7 -665,0 -1 068,7 -1 527,8 -2 017,7 -3 241 Sum of production costs 1,8 4,3 -16,5 -82,2 -162,1 -259,8 -362,7 -478,5 -604,0 -739,3 -879,0 -2 607 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -280,5 -848,6 -1 708,8 -2 549,2 -3 352,1 -4 112,0 -4 828,7 -5 507,1 -6 148,8 -6 758,3 -27 037 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 0,5 2,3 4,8 7,0 9,1 10,4 11,6 12,4 12,6 12,6 12,4 95,7 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,6 -1,7 -3,6 -6,5 -9,8 -13,7 -17,9 -22,8 -28,6 -35,1 -42,1 -182,5 Sum of CO exhaust 91,0 485,4 1 110,9 1 830,0 2 598,3 3 250,2 3 826,9 4 264,6 4 571,7 4 755,6 4 839,0 31 623,5 Sum of CO2 exhaust -1 741 009,9 -5 170 509,5 -10 353 496,3 -15 442 653,8 -20 320 791,8 -24 944 123,1 -29 301 400,7 -33 435 669,8 -37 362 239,7 -41 115 309,5 -44 624 262,7 -263 811 466,8 Sum of N2O exhaust 0,5 7,7 15,0 16,1 12,8 3,8 -6,6 -20,4 -37,1 -56,0 -76,1 -140,3 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 7,6 41,0 83,3 111,0 131,8 133,9 132,3 116,4 88,7 50,5 5,9 902,4 Sum of NOx exhaust -79,0 -224,9 -397,8 -559,8 -705,6 -856,6 -1 034,7 -1 243,7 -1 476,2 -1 729,6 -1 996,6 -10 304,4 Sum of PM exhaust -5,7 -16,2 -29,7 -44,9 -60,8 -78,2 -97,7 -119,6 -143,3 -168,5 -194,4 -958,9 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 1,3 2,3 1,7 -0,1 -3,1 -6,3 -10,5 -15,2 -20,6 -26,2 -76,8 Sum of SO2 exhaust -10,9 -32,7 -65,5 -97,5 -127,9 -156,7 -183,9 -209,5 -233,6 -256,5 -277,8 -1 652,4 Sum of VOC exhaust 6,8 39,0 79,1 104,1 121,7 120,2 114,7 94,0 60,9 16,6 -34,8 722,3 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -108,3 -329,3 -669,5 -1 013,5 -1 350,2 -1 678,5 -1 998,0 -2 310,9 -2 618,4 -2 922,9 -3 218,4 -18 217,9 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -228 419,9 -678 589,7 -1 358 434,8 -2 026 328,6 -2 666 017,5 -3 272 092,3 -3 843 567,6 -4 385 819,4 -4 900 717,0 -5 392 631,5 -5 852 449,8 -34 605 068,2 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -60,1 -175,6 -349,1 -519,4 -682,5 -836,6 -981,9 -1 119,6 -1 250,1 -1 374,5 -1 490,5 -8 840,0 Sum of FC -550 766,6 -1 635 313,4 -3 274 251,2 -4 883 462,6 -6 425 886,2 -7 887 630,4 -9 265 217,0 -10 572 218,4 -11 813 475,9 -12 999 800,2 -14 108 843,6 -83 416 865,4
Net Welfare 10,0 -137,0 -610,2 -1 540,2 -2 557,2 -3 675,6 -4 796,4 -5 972,2 -7 179,9 -8 415,8 -9 655,0 -32 884 D22 CO2 eq WtW -2,0 -5,9 -11,8 -17,6 -23,2 -28,5 -33,5 -38,2 -42,7 -47,0 -51,0 -301,5 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D22B Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -423,1 -1 370,0 -2 949,2 -4 548,4 -6 160,4 -7 779,4 -9 402,3 -11 021,8 -12 631,4 -14 220,4 -52 472 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 315,7 941,9 1 875,3 2 767,0 3 601,0 4 455,4 5 281,0 6 087,1 6 868,0 7 631,3 29 801 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -16,0 -52,2 -113,1 -175,1 -237,4 -300,2 -363,2 -426,1 -488,7 -550,6 -2 026 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 346,4 1 042,7 2 092,3 3 114,6 4 086,5 5 004,1 5 866,4 6 680,0 7 447,9 8 176,4 32 865 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -47,9 -155,3 -334,6 -516,8 -700,9 -886,2 -1 072,5 -1 258,7 -1 444,1 -1 627,4 -5 985 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 102,8 308,4 617,3 916,2 1 198,7 1 476,5 1 741,7 1 996,9 2 241,6 2 478,1 9 792 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 -0,0 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 0 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 0 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -5,1 -13,5 -22,8 -30,2 -35,2 -39,4 -41,8 -43,0 -43,2 -42,8 -244 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,4 -0,8 -1,1 -1,4 -1,6 -1,8 -2,0 -2,1 -2,2 -10 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 0,1 0,3 0,8 1,7 2,6 3,8 5,1 6,4 7,8 9,4 28 Sum of utility of households 12,1 247,0 643,1 1 086,5 1 443,7 1 682,5 1 881,1 1 993,8 2 043,5 2 034,5 1 989,8 11 578 Sum of production costs 1,8 25,8 59,0 78,7 84,1 70,9 51,8 18,9 -24,6 -78,7 -138,2 171 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -277,9 -841,5 -1 696,6 -2 533,5 -3 333,0 -4 089,5 -4 803,1 -5 478,5 -6 117,5 -6 724,6 -26 886 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 0,6 3,0 7,4 12,8 18,5 23,9 29,3 34,3 38,6 42,7 46,3 257,4 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,9 -1,5 -2,0 -2,0 -2,2 -2,7 -3,4 -4,9 -7,1 -10,1 -13,6 -50,3 Sum of CO exhaust 95,6 607,8 1 615,0 3 016,5 4 646,4 6 314,1 7 995,7 9 615,9 11 136,2 12 539,9 13 827,3 71 410,2 Sum of CO2 exhaust -1 742 135,4 -5 148 902,6 -10 274 463,2 -15 268 217,7 -20 048 482,1 -24 572 260,4 -28 830 792,3 -32 867 187,0 -36 697 496,0 -40 355 806,4 -43 772 672,7 -259 578 415,8 Sum of N2O exhaust 0,6 13,3 34,2 56,9 75,1 87,5 98,1 104,6 108,0 108,7 107,6 794,6 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 8,3 59,2 150,6 260,7 374,0 475,5 576,1 662,8 736,2 796,7 847,5 4 947,4 Sum of NOx exhaust -102,0 -265,8 -440,9 -558,1 -642,1 -716,0 -808,0 -925,6 -1 065,2 -1 225,4 -1 398,6 -8 147,7 Sum of PM exhaust -7,4 -18,4 -31,0 -41,9 -53,3 -66,1 -81,0 -98,5 -117,7 -138,7 -160,4 -814,3 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 2,5 6,8 11,3 14,7 16,9 18,7 19,6 19,7 19,1 18,3 147,6 Sum of SO2 exhaust -10,9 -32,7 -65,4 -97,3 -127,8 -156,4 -183,6 -209,2 -233,3 -256,3 -277,7 -1 650,7 Sum of VOC exhaust 7,3 57,3 147,7 257,7 370,6 471,7 571,4 656,5 727,7 785,2 832,6 4 885,6 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -108,4 -328,7 -667,1 -1 007,2 -1 339,5 -1 663,2 -1 977,8 -2 285,6 -2 587,7 -2 886,9 -3 177,0 -18 029,1 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -228 652,7 -676 324,9 -1 349 610,7 -2 006 210,6 -2 634 253,2 -3 228 522,9 -3 788 340,8 -4 319 001,3 -4 822 537,3 -5 303 378,1 -5 752 517,2 -34 109 349,7 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -60,5 -176,0 -348,7 -516,9 -678,0 -830,0 -973,3 -1 109,0 -1 237,5 -1 360,0 -1 474,0 -8 763,9 Sum of FC -551 169,5 -1 628 615,8 -3 249 546,3 -4 828 762,1 -6 340 412,6 -7 770 857,7 -9 117 401,1 -10 393 635,5 -11 604 634,9 -12 761 171,6 -13 841 271,4 -82 087 478,4
Net Welfare 10,0 -5,1 -139,5 -531,4 -1 005,6 -1 579,6 -2 156,6 -2 790,4 -3 459,6 -4 161,6 -4 873,0 -15 138 D22B CO2 eq WtW -2,0 -5,9 -11,7 -17,4 -22,9 -28,1 -32,9 -37,5 -41,9 -46,1 -50,0 -296,5 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D22C Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -330,4 -1 069,5 -2 304,8 -3 558,3 -4 819,3 -6 083,2 -7 348,2 -8 608,6 -9 859,6 -11 093,3 -40 991 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 315,2 943,8 1 882,4 2 781,7 3 619,8 4 474,8 5 297,5 6 097,8 6 870,9 7 625,6 29 869 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -12,1 -39,6 -86,2 -133,9 -181,7 -229,8 -277,9 -325,8 -373,5 -420,5 -1 548 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 346,3 1 042,9 2 093,9 3 118,2 4 090,8 5 008,1 5 869,2 6 681,0 7 446,7 8 172,8 32 876 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -37,4 -121,2 -261,5 -404,3 -548,3 -693,0 -838,2 -983,1 -1 127,2 -1 269,7 -4 676 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 102,7 308,7 618,6 918,8 1 202,0 1 479,8 1 744,4 1 998,5 2 241,7 2 476,5 9 803 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 -0,0 0,0 0,0 0 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,2 0 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -6,8 -19,2 -35,2 -49,4 -61,1 -71,7 -80,4 -87,7 -93,7 -98,9 -458 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,5 -1,0 -1,4 -1,7 -2,1 -2,3 -2,6 -2,8 -3,0 -13 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 0,1 0,4 1,4 2,6 4,1 5,9 7,8 9,7 11,5 13,4 42 Sum of utility of households 12,1 334,4 931,0 1 709,1 2 406,4 2 987,0 3 527,8 3 981,8 4 371,1 4 699,2 4 987,8 22 660 Sum of production costs 1,8 42,9 115,0 198,5 267,7 317,7 361,1 390,1 407,9 414,6 415,1 2 244 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -276,0 -836,5 -1 687,6 -2 522,0 -3 319,0 -4 073,2 -4 784,4 -5 457,7 -6 094,7 -6 700,2 -26 777 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 0,6 3,6 9,2 16,8 25,3 33,6 42,1 50,1 57,5 64,5 71,0 374,3 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,9 -1,3 -0,7 1,5 3,7 5,7 7,6 8,9 9,4 9,1 8,3 51,1 Sum of CO exhaust 94,6 709,8 1 968,9 3 852,3 6 100,7 8 501,0 10 983,3 13 464,0 15 870,0 18 166,7 20 337,8 100 049,2 Sum of CO2 exhaust -1 742 452,1 -5 130 787,9 -10 215 454,5 -15 137 718,3 -19 844 417,8 -24 293 393,8 -28 477 666,7 -32 440 412,4 -36 198 239,7 -39 785 140,6 -43 132 597,1 -256 398 280,8 Sum of N2O exhaust 0,6 17,7 48,2 87,0 121,4 149,9 176,2 198,2 216,8 232,2 245,6 1 494,0 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 8,2 73,6 198,2 368,2 549,3 723,9 899,8 1 062,2 1 210,4 1 343,9 1 465,5 7 903,3 Sum of NOx exhaust -107,7 -289,0 -460,4 -538,9 -571,0 -582,1 -604,6 -648,9 -714,0 -800,0 -898,5 -6 215,0 Sum of PM exhaust -7,8 -19,6 -31,1 -38,1 -45,6 -54,3 -65,2 -78,7 -94,1 -111,3 -129,2 -674,8 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 3,6 10,1 18,5 25,8 31,9 37,5 42,1 46,0 49,1 51,8 316,4 Sum of SO2 exhaust -10,9 -32,7 -65,3 -97,2 -127,6 -156,2 -183,3 -208,8 -233,1 -256,2 -277,6 -1 648,9 Sum of VOC exhaust 7,1 71,9 196,4 368,1 551,2 727,6 905,0 1 068,2 1 216,7 1 349,6 1 470,3 7 932,2 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -108,4 -328,2 -665,3 -1 002,5 -1 331,4 -1 651,7 -1 962,6 -2 266,4 -2 564,5 -2 859,5 -3 145,6 -17 886,1 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -228 713,2 -674 371,3 -1 342 959,7 -1 991 070,1 -2 610 324,0 -3 195 689,4 -3 746 705,6 -4 268 610,6 -4 763 558,6 -5 236 019,5 -5 677 075,2 -33 735 097,1 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -60,6 -176,1 -348,1 -514,7 -674,1 -824,5 -966,1 -1 100,1 -1 227,0 -1 347,9 -1 460,4 -8 699,6 Sum of FC -551 280,2 -1 622 977,9 -3 231 069,1 -4 787 792,3 -6 276 298,4 -7 683 212,5 -9 006 396,0 -10 259 466,1 -11 447 669,2 -12 581 747,6 -13 640 017,9 -81 087 927,2
Net Welfare 10,0 101,3 209,5 219,9 152,1 -14,4 -184,3 -412,5 -678,7 -981,0 -1 297,3 -1 873 D22C CO2 eq WtW -2,0 -5,9 -11,7 -17,3 -22,6 -27,7 -32,5 -37,0 -41,3 -45,4 -49,2 -292,7 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D23 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -766,8 -2 516,0 -5 489,1 -8 489,5 -11 521,5 -14 574,4 -17 641,5 -20 708,9 -23 763,1 -26 783,6 -98 384 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 417,9 1 247,5 2 477,3 3 643,1 4 740,1 5 873,4 6 977,1 8 062,7 9 120,2 10 156,5 39 434 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -29,8 -98,3 -215,8 -334,2 -454,0 -574,7 -696,2 -817,9 -939,2 -1 059,6 -3 882 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 459,4 1 384,8 2 777,5 4 131,8 5 422,0 6 642,6 7 792,1 8 878,3 9 904,7 10 879,4 43 662 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -86,7 -285,1 -622,8 -964,7 -1 311,0 -1 660,6 -2 012,5 -2 365,1 -2 716,9 -3 065,4 -11 223 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 136,2 409,2 817,9 1 211,8 1 585,4 1 954,5 2 308,5 2 650,5 2 979,7 3 298,2 12 988 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 -0,0 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 0 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,2 -0,2 -0,1 -1 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -2,8 -4,4 0,1 7,0 17,0 27,8 40,3 53,9 68,3 82,8 206 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,4 -0,6 -0,8 -0,9 -1,0 -1,0 -1,0 -1,0 -0,9 -6 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 0,2 0,3 1,3 3,2 5,9 9,4 13,9 19,3 25,8 33,5 81 Sum of utility of households 12,1 131,7 188,5 -68,0 -452,3 -999,4 -1 601,6 -2 317,2 -3 112,7 -3 980,3 -4 886,6 -12 193 Sum of production costs 1,8 -4,3 -50,9 -186,1 -340,1 -517,6 -701,5 -902,3 -1 115,5 -1 341,4 -1 572,6 -4 931 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -372,6 -1 130,3 -2 277,7 -3 396,4 -4 464,9 -5 475,9 -6 429,5 -7 331,8 -8 185,0 -8 995,3 -35 999 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 0,8 3,0 5,6 7,0 8,0 7,8 7,3 6,2 4,4 2,4 0,1 52,6 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,9 -2,5 -5,6 -11,1 -17,3 -24,3 -31,9 -40,5 -50,1 -60,9 -68,9 -314,0 Sum of CO exhaust 141,8 625,8 1 341,1 1 977,8 2 585,3 2 955,3 3 173,2 3 158,9 2 950,3 2 569,6 2 033,4 23 512,6 Sum of CO2 exhaust -2 304 740,4 -6 884 774,9 -13 800 047,8 -20 620 540,7 -27 159 960,6 -33 359 455,9 -39 205 119,6 -44 753 294,2 -50 024 033,2 -55 062 630,0 -59 783 248,4 -352 957 845,8 Sum of N2O exhaust 0,8 7,8 12,5 2,1 -14,2 -38,2 -63,5 -93,4 -126,7 -162,8 -200,2 -675,9 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 11,9 49,4 88,3 83,6 64,4 16,6 -38,0 -112,3 -201,8 -304,1 -381,3 -723,2 Sum of NOx exhaust -113,7 -301,7 -520,8 -769,6 -1 007,1 -1 259,2 -1 552,5 -1 889,5 -2 258,4 -2 654,9 -3 134,9 -15 462,2 Sum of PM exhaust -8,3 -22,3 -40,3 -64,1 -89,1 -116,0 -145,5 -178,4 -213,6 -250,6 -287,4 -1 415,6 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 1,1 1,3 -2,5 -7,6 -14,5 -21,6 -29,9 -39,1 -48,9 -59,0 -220,5 Sum of SO2 exhaust -14,4 -43,5 -87,1 -129,8 -170,3 -208,6 -244,8 -278,8 -310,8 -341,2 -369,5 -2 198,8 Sum of VOC exhaust 10,8 46,6 82,1 72,3 47,3 -7,1 -68,8 -151,3 -249,7 -362,1 -446,6 -1 026,4 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -143,3 -437,8 -891,2 -1 350,3 -1 800,3 -2 238,8 -2 665,9 -3 084,5 -3 495,7 -3 902,8 -4 298,7 -24 309,3 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -302 348,4 -903 438,5 -1 810 247,4 -2 704 770,8 -3 561 809,8 -4 373 958,4 -5 140 058,8 -5 867 190,6 -6 557 765,3 -7 217 533,2 -7 835 501,5 -46 274 622,6 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -79,5 -234,0 -465,4 -693,5 -912,1 -1 118,7 -1 313,5 -1 498,2 -1 673,3 -1 840,1 -1 996,2 -11 824,6 Sum of FC -729 097,6 -2 177 514,9 -4 364 148,8 -6 520 746,5 -8 588 383,4 -10 548 390,8 -12 396 470,1 -14 150 392,2 -15 816 493,8 -17 409 089,2 -18 901 053,0 -111 601 780,4
Net Welfare 10,0 -245,3 -992,7 -2 531,8 -4 188,8 -5 981,9 -7 778,9 -9 649,0 -11 560,1 -13 506,7 -15 454,5 -53 123 D23 CO2 eq WtW -2,6 -7,9 -15,8 -23,6 -31,0 -38,1 -44,8 -51,2 -57,2 -63,0 -68,4 -403,5 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D24 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -557,3 -1 827,8 -3 911,0 -6 017,0 -8 142,0 -10 278,5 -12 422,0 -14 562,9 -16 692,0 -18 795,3 -69 370 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 377,1 1 093,2 2 136,2 3 129,2 4 060,4 5 016,8 5 943,9 6 851,7 7 732,9 8 594,7 33 641 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -21,8 -71,6 -153,8 -237,0 -320,9 -405,4 -490,2 -575,0 -659,5 -743,1 -2 737 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 412,2 1 204,0 2 374,5 3 512,6 4 595,0 5 618,1 6 580,3 7 488,7 8 346,3 9 159,9 36 956 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -63,0 -207,1 -443,7 -683,6 -926,3 -1 170,9 -1 416,8 -1 662,9 -1 908,1 -2 150,7 -7 912 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 122,6 357,0 701,9 1 034,7 1 349,9 1 660,2 1 957,0 2 243,0 2 517,7 2 783,1 11 031 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 0 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,2 -0,1 -1 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -4,9 -10,7 -14,9 -16,9 -16,3 -14,8 -11,7 -7,4 -2,2 3,5 -80 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,4 -0,7 -1,0 -1,2 -1,4 -1,5 -1,6 -1,7 -1,7 -9 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 0,1 0,3 0,8 1,8 3,0 4,5 6,3 8,4 10,8 13,5 36 Sum of utility of households 12,1 244,3 514,0 703,5 790,0 742,2 648,9 460,1 202,6 -118,1 -475,9 3 220 Sum of production costs 1,8 20,5 23,0 -14,1 -67,2 -140,7 -220,4 -314,9 -420,7 -537,8 -660,4 -1 666 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -331,7 -975,9 -1 934,1 -2 869,4 -3 762,5 -4 607,6 -5 404,7 -6 159,1 -6 872,4 -7 549,9 -30 328 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 0,5 2,7 5,7 8,7 11,8 14,0 16,2 17,8 19,0 19,8 20,3 136,4 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,6 -1,1 -2,2 -4,0 -6,2 -8,9 -12,0 -16,0 -20,8 -26,5 -32,8 -131,1 Sum of CO exhaust 91,0 575,1 1 356,9 2 303,2 3 331,0 4 257,6 5 118,4 5 839,9 6 423,3 6 872,4 7 208,2 43 377,2 Sum of CO2 exhaust -2 078 313,5 -5 977 543,5 -11 759 616,8 -17 417 322,7 -22 835 086,1 -27 966 200,0 -32 799 817,6 -37 383 436,8 -41 734 013,7 -45 889 343,8 -49 771 084,6 -295 611 779,1 Sum of N2O exhaust 0,5 12,4 26,6 36,4 41,0 39,2 35,9 28,4 17,7 4,3 -10,6 231,8 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 7,6 52,3 113,0 165,5 212,1 239,7 263,6 271,8 266,6 249,2 224,1 2 065,4 Sum of NOx exhaust -79,0 -201,5 -335,7 -444,2 -534,2 -629,2 -753,3 -911,3 -1 096,0 -1 305,1 -1 530,5 -7 820,1 Sum of PM exhaust -5,7 -13,7 -23,5 -33,9 -45,2 -58,3 -73,6 -91,8 -112,1 -134,3 -157,4 -749,6 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 2,4 5,0 6,4 6,6 5,4 3,7 1,2 -2,2 -6,2 -10,6 11,7 Sum of SO2 exhaust -13,0 -37,9 -74,6 -110,4 -144,4 -176,6 -206,9 -235,5 -262,5 -288,1 -311,9 -1 861,9 Sum of VOC exhaust 6,8 50,8 110,0 160,8 205,4 230,4 251,2 255,5 245,9 223,1 192,0 1 932,1 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -128,8 -380,0 -759,1 -1 141,1 -1 514,5 -1 878,3 -2 231,8 -2 577,9 -2 917,5 -3 253,5 -3 579,2 -20 361,7 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -272 837,9 -785 307,3 -1 544 575,7 -2 287 979,1 -2 999 284,2 -3 672 763,3 -4 307 549,4 -4 909 536,4 -5 480 810,4 -6 026 230,2 -6 535 677,0 -38 822 550,8 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -72,6 -205,6 -401,6 -593,2 -776,6 -949,8 -1 113,0 -1 267,5 -1 413,9 -1 553,3 -1 683,0 -10 030,1 Sum of FC -657 570,6 -1 890 868,2 -3 719 535,7 -5 508 811,7 -7 222 137,0 -8 844 687,5 -10 373 121,1 -11 822 413,7 -13 197 928,0 -14 511 607,4 -15 738 667,6 -93 487 348,5
Net Welfare 10,0 -67,0 -439,0 -1 244,8 -2 146,6 -3 160,9 -4 179,1 -5 259,5 -6 377,2 -7 528,4 -8 686,1 -28 773 D24 CO2 eq WtW -2,4 -6,8 -13,4 -19,9 -26,1 -32,0 -37,5 -42,7 -47,7 -52,4 -56,9 -337,8 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D25 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -584,9 -1 919,3 -4 104,2 -6 313,4 -8 540,9 -10 778,8 -13 022,6 -15 262,6 -17 489,6 -19 688,7 -72 723 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 418,7 1 227,3 2 408,8 3 536,6 4 594,1 5 676,0 6 722,9 7 746,2 8 738,1 9 706,8 38 009 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -23,0 -75,7 -162,5 -250,4 -338,9 -428,0 -517,2 -606,4 -695,3 -783,2 -2 888 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 456,6 1 345,8 2 662,3 3 943,3 5 161,5 6 312,0 7 394,3 8 416,0 9 380,5 10 294,9 41 506 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -66,1 -217,5 -465,6 -717,3 -971,7 -1 227,9 -1 485,3 -1 742,8 -1 999,3 -2 253,0 -8 294 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 135,9 399,8 788,9 1 165,1 1 521,1 1 871,0 2 205,5 2 527,6 2 836,6 3 134,9 12 423 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 -0,0 0,0 -0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 0 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 -0,0 0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,0 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,2 -0,2 0 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -6,1 -14,3 -22,0 -27,4 -29,8 -31,1 -30,5 -28,4 -25,3 -21,5 -186 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,5 -0,9 -1,3 -1,5 -1,8 -2,0 -2,1 -2,2 -2,3 -11 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 0,1 0,4 1,2 2,3 3,8 5,7 7,7 9,9 12,5 15,4 43 Sum of utility of households 12,1 302,2 697,4 1 069,5 1 331,0 1 444,0 1 503,8 1 456,8 1 331,7 1 134,0 891,8 8 810 Sum of production costs 1,8 28,7 48,6 36,4 6,6 -46,3 -106,6 -184,1 -274,5 -378,1 -488,5 -932 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -366,8 -1 088,6 -2 163,8 -3 214,4 -4 217,8 -5 167,1 -6 062,9 -6 910,7 -7 712,6 -8 473,8 -34 004 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 0,5 2,8 6,3 10,1 13,9 17,0 20,0 22,4 24,2 25,7 26,8 170,0 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,7 -0,8 -1,3 -2,1 -3,4 -5,4 -7,6 -10,8 -15,0 -20,1 -26,0 -93,2 Sum of CO exhaust 91,0 625,0 1 529,7 2 678,6 3 939,0 5 110,6 6 225,0 7 195,8 8 019,5 8 695,1 9 242,9 53 352,2 Sum of CO2 exhaust -2 307 384,2 -6 695 974,1 -13 205 544,2 -19 564 160,6 -25 651 990,1 -31 413 572,4 -36 842 062,2 -41 988 337,4 -46 872 092,6 -51 532 420,0 -55 888 295,2 -331 961 833,0 Sum of N2O exhaust 0,5 15,0 34,8 52,5 64,6 69,7 72,7 71,0 65,6 57,1 46,6 550,0 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 7,6 58,2 132,8 207,0 276,3 325,9 371,8 400,4 414,0 413,5 403,7 3 011,1 Sum of NOx exhaust -79,0 -188,7 -291,7 -350,3 -387,3 -429,6 -503,5 -614,3 -755,4 -924,6 -1 112,9 -5 637,4 Sum of PM exhaust -5,7 -12,4 -19,1 -25,0 -31,9 -40,7 -52,2 -67,0 -84,2 -103,5 -124,1 -565,7 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 3,0 6,9 10,2 12,1 12,5 12,4 11,2 9,1 6,1 2,8 86,3 Sum of SO2 exhaust -14,4 -42,5 -83,9 -124,3 -162,7 -198,9 -233,2 -265,5 -295,9 -324,8 -351,7 -2 097,8 Sum of VOC exhaust 6,8 57,0 130,6 204,0 272,0 319,9 363,5 388,9 398,6 393,2 377,9 2 912,5 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -142,7 -424,9 -850,9 -1 279,5 -1 698,1 -2 105,4 -2 501,3 -2 888,3 -3 267,9 -3 643,0 -4 006,7 -22 808,8 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -303 002,8 -880 178,9 -1 735 755,0 -2 572 136,2 -3 372 249,9 -4 129 294,0 -4 843 006,8 -5 519 660,1 -6 161 689,2 -6 774 132,0 -7 346 533,8 -43 637 638,7 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -81,0 -232,3 -455,5 -673,4 -882,0 -1 078,8 -1 264,3 -1 439,9 -1 606,1 -1 764,2 -1 911,5 -11 389,0 Sum of FC -730 103,2 -2 118 363,9 -4 177 421,4 -6 188 672,6 -8 114 202,8 -9 936 409,6 -11 653 217,2 -13 280 670,4 -14 824 999,2 -16 298 556,9 -17 675 709,6 -104 998 326,8
Net Welfare 10,0 -35,9 -342,6 -1 057,9 -1 876,8 -2 820,1 -3 769,9 -4 790,2 -5 853,6 -6 956,7 -8 070,5 -26 126 D25 CO2 eq WtW -2,6 -7,7 -15,1 -22,3 -29,3 -35,9 -42,1 -48,0 -53,6 -58,9 -63,9 -379,3 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D26 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -592,2 -1 945,0 -4 159,5 -6 400,2 -8 660,1 -10 931,5 -13 209,3 -15 483,5 -17 744,9 -19 978,5 -73 762 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 434,6 1 283,1 2 528,1 3 721,9 4 843,8 5 986,3 7 088,4 8 162,2 9 199,1 10 210,6 40 014 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -23,2 -76,4 -164,0 -252,8 -342,2 -432,2 -522,5 -612,7 -702,6 -791,5 -2 917 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 472,0 1 398,9 2 774,6 4 115,7 5 392,2 6 596,3 7 725,8 8 789,2 9 790,2 10 738,5 43 323 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -66,1 -217,5 -465,8 -717,6 -972,2 -1 228,4 -1 485,9 -1 743,4 -1 999,9 -2 253,5 -8 297 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 137,7 406,2 802,6 1 186,3 1 549,8 1 906,7 2 247,4 2 575,1 2 889,2 3 192,3 12 652 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,5 0,8 1,1 1,5 1,8 2,1 2,3 2,6 10 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 1,0 3,4 7,2 11,0 14,6 17,8 20,6 22,8 24,5 26,1 112 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -6,6 -16,2 -25,8 -33,2 -37,4 -40,3 -40,9 -39,9 -37,7 -34,6 -243 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,5 -0,9 -1,3 -1,6 -1,8 -2,0 -2,2 -2,3 -2,4 -12 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 1,7 5,8 12,2 19,6 26,5 33,2 39,3 45,1 50,4 55,7 216 Sum of utility of households 12,1 311,3 729,2 1 137,5 1 436,5 1 585,6 1 678,3 1 659,6 1 559,1 1 382,0 1 159,0 9 915 Sum of production costs 1,8 47,4 112,9 171,7 213,7 229,0 229,2 202,9 155,5 86,3 6,4 1 180 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -380,8 -1 137,2 -2 266,8 -3 372,9 -4 430,3 -5 429,6 -6 370,0 -7 257,7 -8 095,0 -8 889,2 -35 688 Sum of C6H6 exhaust -0,5 0,2 1,9 5,4 10,3 15,5 21,4 26,8 31,4 35,6 39,1 187,0 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,9 -1,3 -1,7 -1,6 -1,8 -2,2 -2,9 -4,8 -7,6 -11,8 -16,7 -53,3 Sum of CO exhaust -67,8 214,7 915,6 2 146,1 3 769,2 5 547,1 7 463,4 9 316,6 11 044,5 12 613,9 14 041,5 67 004,9 Sum of CO2 exhaust -2 406 271,5 -7 026 708,3 -13 892 951,8 -20 606 643,4 -27 041 840,0 -33 127 434,9 -38 850 235,6 -44 265 852,9 -49 392 866,6 -54 289 417,0 -58 866 769,2 -349 766 991,2 Sum of N2O exhaust 1,5 19,4 45,2 70,3 89,8 101,9 111,5 116,0 116,5 113,4 108,3 893,9 Sum of NMVOC exhaust -4,0 32,7 99,3 191,1 296,1 393,9 494,2 574,6 636,2 676,4 701,2 4 091,9 Sum of NOx exhaust -156,0 -423,2 -744,6 -981,2 -1 178,9 -1 377,9 -1 623,1 -1 933,4 -2 302,4 -2 728,5 -3 196,8 -16 645,9 Sum of PM exhaust -0,8 2,5 8,6 12,0 10,0 2,4 -11,1 -30,2 -53,2 -79,0 -106,9 -245,7 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 3,6 9,0 14,5 18,8 21,3 23,2 23,6 22,8 21,0 18,7 176,5 Sum of SO2 exhaust -15,1 -44,7 -88,5 -131,3 -172,3 -210,8 -247,1 -281,3 -313,5 -343,9 -372,3 -2 220,8 Sum of VOC exhaust -5,1 30,9 96,5 188,2 293,1 390,4 490,0 568,7 627,7 664,0 684,4 4 028,8 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -148,2 -443,1 -888,6 -1 336,5 -1 773,8 -2 198,5 -2 610,0 -3 011,4 -3 403,8 -3 791,4 -4 166,9 -23 771,9 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -316 272,4 -924 576,8 -1 827 923,1 -2 711 849,6 -3 558 456,3 -4 358 918,0 -5 112 160,0 -5 825 103,4 -6 500 014,9 -7 144 458,2 -7 746 951,9 -46 026 684,6 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -85,8 -248,0 -487,9 -722,2 -946,9 -1 158,9 -1 358,8 -1 547,9 -1 727,1 -1 898,0 -2 057,7 -12 239,3 Sum of FC -761 539,8 -2 223 477,7 -4 395 836,3 -6 519 870,0 -8 555 737,7 -10 480 887,4 -12 291 266,8 -14 004 419,3 -15 626 216,6 -17 175 037,8 -18 622 799,6 -110 657 088,8
Net Welfare 10,0 -22,2 -295,1 -957,5 -1 722,6 -2 615,7 -3 522,1 -4 507,4 -5 543,1 -6 626,6 -7 723,9 -24 593 D26 CO2 eq WtW -2,8 -8,0 -15,9 -23,5 -30,9 -37,8 -44,4 -50,6 -56,4 -62,0 -67,3 -399,7 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D27 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -592,2 -1 944,9 -4 160,5 -6 402,4 -8 663,2 -10 934,4 -13 212,8 -15 486,7 -17 747,6 -19 979,8 -73 777 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 442,0 1 280,4 2 486,5 3 645,3 4 715,0 5 835,7 6 908,0 7 953,8 8 934,5 9 942,2 39 046 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -23,2 -76,4 -164,1 -252,9 -342,4 -432,4 -522,7 -612,9 -702,7 -791,5 -2 918 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 461,3 1 437,4 2 911,5 4 342,4 5 695,9 6 976,7 8 158,2 9 261,7 10 292,0 11 280,7 45 581 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -66,1 -217,5 -465,9 -717,9 -972,5 -1 228,8 -1 486,4 -1 743,8 -2 000,2 -2 253,7 -8 299 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 137,1 411,9 818,4 1 211,4 1 579,5 1 945,6 2 290,3 2 620,3 2 930,7 3 239,8 12 872 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,5 0,8 1,1 1,5 1,8 2,1 2,3 2,6 10 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 1,0 3,4 7,2 11,0 14,6 17,8 20,6 22,8 24,5 26,1 112 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -6,5 -16,9 -27,8 -36,3 -41,1 -45,1 -46,2 -45,5 -42,8 -40,5 -270 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,5 -1,0 -1,4 -1,7 -2,0 -2,2 -2,4 -2,5 -2,6 -13 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 1,7 5,8 12,4 19,8 27,0 34,0 40,3 46,2 51,6 57,2 221 Sum of utility of households 12,1 307,4 765,6 1 235,9 1 591,9 1 769,1 1 919,7 1 925,5 1 840,2 1 640,9 1 457,7 11 283 Sum of production costs 1,8 47,4 117,4 181,3 228,0 243,2 249,0 223,3 175,4 99,0 22,8 1 281 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -372,1 -1 168,4 -2 378,7 -3 558,7 -4 680,3 -5 743,0 -6 726,9 -7 648,5 -8 511,2 -9 339,2 -37 552 Sum of C6H6 exhaust -0,5 0,1 2,0 5,7 10,9 16,2 22,3 27,8 32,5 36,5 40,2 193,6 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,9 -1,3 -1,5 -1,4 -1,5 -2,1 -2,7 -4,6 -7,6 -12,2 -17,1 -53,0 Sum of CO exhaust -67,8 210,9 949,2 2 245,8 3 939,4 5 763,8 7 759,9 9 655,4 11 411,5 12 961,5 14 434,7 69 264,3 Sum of CO2 exhaust -2 351 294,6 -7 227 610,2 -14 595 647,6 -21 762 697,3 -28 588 290,5 -35 070 376,2 -41 052 726,1 -46 672 416,7 -51 949 750,1 -57 063 255,4 -61 693 861,4 -368 027 926,2 Sum of N2O exhaust 1,5 19,3 46,8 74,5 96,2 109,3 121,3 126,7 127,7 123,4 119,8 966,5 Sum of NMVOC exhaust -4,0 32,6 102,9 200,1 310,3 409,6 516,3 598,7 660,9 695,9 725,0 4 248,4 Sum of NOx exhaust -156,0 -424,1 -735,8 -954,9 -1 134,5 -1 321,6 -1 548,3 -1 849,1 -2 212,0 -2 642,2 -3 099,4 -16 077,8 Sum of PM exhaust -0,8 2,4 9,4 14,5 13,9 7,2 -4,9 -23,3 -45,9 -72,2 -99,3 -199,0 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 3,6 9,4 15,4 20,3 22,9 25,3 25,9 25,2 23,0 21,0 192,0 Sum of SO2 exhaust -14,7 -45,9 -93,0 -138,7 -182,1 -223,1 -261,1 -296,5 -329,6 -361,3 -390,1 -2 336,0 Sum of VOC exhaust -5,1 30,7 100,3 197,3 307,5 406,3 512,3 593,0 652,5 683,2 707,8 4 185,8 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -144,8 -455,4 -933,1 -1 411,0 -1 874,6 -2 326,4 -2 756,9 -3 173,8 -3 578,5 -3 982,9 -4 365,0 -25 002,4 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -309 032,8 -951 030,5 -1 920 697,3 -2 864 633,1 -3 762 885,6 -4 615 698,4 -5 403 394,0 -6 143 350,9 -6 838 177,9 -7 511 193,0 -8 120 897,8 -48 440 991,4 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -83,8 -255,5 -514,1 -765,5 -1 004,8 -1 231,6 -1 441,2 -1 637,9 -1 822,6 -2 001,5 -2 163,1 -12 921,7 Sum of FC -744 132,3 -2 287 095,7 -4 618 364,5 -6 885 963,8 -9 045 461,5 -11 096 164,1 -12 988 727,4 -14 766 487,4 -16 435 863,9 -18 053 359,2 -19 517 957,9 -116 439 577,7
Net Welfare 10,0 -17,2 -285,4 -961,4 -1 738,8 -2 667,9 -3 574,4 -4 578,1 -5 633,0 -6 771,2 -7 858,7 -24 988 D27 CO2 eq WtW -2,7 -8,3 -16,7 -24,9 -32,7 -40,1 -46,9 -53,3 -59,4 -65,2 -70,5 -420,6 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D27 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -477,7 -1 539,0 -3 294,6 -5 074,0 -6 865,1 -8 661,0 -10 460,0 -12 252,9 -14 033,3 -15 789,3 -58 394 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 441,6 1 282,8 2 496,8 3 666,3 4 742,1 5 864,0 6 932,6 7 970,7 8 940,8 9 936,9 39 150 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -18,3 -59,4 -127,8 -197,5 -267,4 -337,6 -407,9 -478,0 -547,7 -616,5 -2 276 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 460,9 1 437,9 2 914,5 4 348,5 5 703,2 6 983,6 8 163,3 9 264,1 10 291,2 11 276,5 45 603 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -53,2 -171,6 -367,7 -567,0 -768,0 -969,8 -1 172,4 -1 374,6 -1 575,7 -1 774,3 -6 545 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 137,0 412,3 820,3 1 215,3 1 584,4 1 950,5 2 294,4 2 622,9 2 931,2 3 238,1 12 889 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,5 0,8 1,2 1,5 1,8 2,1 2,3 2,6 10 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 1,0 3,4 7,2 11,0 14,7 17,9 20,6 22,8 24,5 26,1 112 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -8,8 -24,7 -44,6 -62,1 -75,7 -88,3 -97,8 -105,1 -110,2 -115,3 -557 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,7 -1,3 -1,8 -2,2 -2,6 -2,9 -3,2 -3,5 -3,7 -17 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 1,8 6,0 13,1 21,2 28,9 36,5 43,4 49,5 54,8 60,2 235 Sum of utility of households 12,1 415,2 1 154,4 2 073,9 2 885,8 3 521,1 4 129,9 4 592,9 4 961,9 5 213,4 5 476,1 26 146 Sum of production costs 1,8 68,9 193,0 342,7 475,0 575,0 664,7 722,1 756,2 761,1 765,2 4 066 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -369,4 -1 161,6 -2 367,4 -3 545,0 -4 664,1 -5 724,4 -6 705,8 -7 625,1 -8 485,8 -9 312,1 -37 426 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 0,0 Sum of CH4 exhaust -1,2 -1,1 0,1 3,1 6,1 8,9 11,7 13,4 13,9 12,9 11,6 79,6 Sum of CO exhaust 0,0 Sum of CO2 exhaust -2 352 431,4 -7 206 974,7 -14 520 959,5 -21 597 428,0 -28 329 439,0 -34 715 967,3 -40 602 996,7 -46 127 924,4 -51 311 889,6 -56 333 642,7 -60 874 781,8 -363 974 435,0 Sum of N2O exhaust 1,6 24,9 66,1 115,3 158,9 193,4 226,4 252,4 273,5 288,9 304,5 1 905,7 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 0,0 Sum of NOx exhaust 0,0 Sum of PM exhaust 0,0 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 Sum of SO2 exhaust 0,0 Sum of VOC exhaust 0,0 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -144,9 -454,9 -930,9 -1 405,4 -1 864,8 -2 312,4 -2 738,2 -3 150,2 -3 549,7 -3 949,0 -4 325,9 -24 826,3 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -309 266,0 -948 887,6 -1 912 425,7 -2 845 692,4 -3 732 853,7 -4 574 375,8 -5 350 855,0 -6 079 620,6 -6 763 458,8 -7 425 786,3 -8 025 146,9 -47 968 368,6 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -84,2 -255,9 -513,7 -763,2 -1 000,5 -1 225,4 -1 433,0 -1 627,8 -1 810,6 -1 987,6 -2 147,3 -12 849,2 Sum of FC 0,0
Net Welfare 10,0 114,7 185,8 49,1 -184,2 -567,9 -929,8 -1 390,9 -1 907,0 -2 511,2 -3 070,7 -7 214 D27 CO2 eq WtW -2,7 -8,2 -16,6 -24,7 -32,4 -39,6 -46,4 -52,7 -58,6 -64,4 -69,5 -415,8 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D27 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -626,5 -1 986,5 -4 222,3 -6 852,5 -9 863,9 -13 287,8 -16 737,6 -20 204,0 -23 674,8 -27 127,6 -92 015 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 441,7 1 278,7 2 484,8 3 765,3 5 076,1 6 572,2 8 022,9 9 446,9 10 793,0 12 154,6 44 688 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -24,6 -78,1 -166,6 -271,2 -391,1 -527,9 -665,8 -804,7 -944,0 -1 082,9 -3 660 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 461,2 1 437,0 2 910,9 4 477,5 6 104,8 7 800,5 9 390,6 10 887,4 12 286,9 13 623,1 51 711 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -70,0 -222,2 -472,8 -764,5 -1 095,4 -1 468,7 -1 845,3 -2 224,0 -2 603,4 -2 981,0 -10 158 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 137,0 411,6 818,0 1 246,9 1 686,7 2 162,7 2 616,9 3 054,5 3 468,1 3 876,6 14 513 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,5 0,8 1,1 1,4 1,7 1,9 2,0 2,1 9 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 1,0 3,4 7,2 11,0 14,5 17,6 20,1 21,7 22,2 21,8 106 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -5,9 -16,0 -26,5 -32,6 -33,3 -31,3 -26,2 -18,7 -8,4 2,1 -161 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,5 -1,0 -1,4 -1,7 -1,9 -2,1 -2,3 -2,3 -2,4 -12 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 1,7 5,8 12,4 20,0 27,6 35,8 43,8 51,5 58,5 65,2 239 Sum of utility of households 12,1 274,4 724,1 1 175,1 1 412,1 1 377,0 1 200,1 857,4 391,7 -231,0 -871,2 5 432 Sum of production costs 1,8 41,0 109,3 169,6 187,2 148,6 72,5 -38,5 -181,4 -371,4 -577,3 -172 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -372,6 -1 168,8 -2 379,4 -3 677,4 -5 036,5 -6 458,7 -7 796,5 -9 059,0 -10 242,1 -11 372,3 -42 877 Sum of C6H6 exhaust 0,0 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,9 -1,5 -1,7 -1,8 -3,2 -6,0 -10,0 -15,5 -22,4 -31,5 -41,3 -135,9 Sum of CO exhaust 0,0 Sum of CO2 exhaust -2 350 771,4 -7 234 273,1 -14 603 214,9 -22 476 433,1 -30 747 507,5 -39 430 975,0 -47 612 138,4 -55 355 078,2 -62 634 005,2 -69 645 644,2 -76 071 867,4 -428 161 908,5 Sum of N2O exhaust 1,5 17,9 44,9 71,7 88,1 91,6 89,1 79,4 63,9 41,1 17,6 606,7 Sum of NMVOC exhaust 0,0 Sum of NOx exhaust 0,0 Sum of PM exhaust 0,0 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 Sum of SO2 exhaust 0,0 Sum of VOC exhaust 0,0 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -144,8 -455,6 -933,4 -1 456,4 -2 014,3 -2 611,7 -3 190,8 -3 754,2 -4 300,6 -4 843,0 -5 358,8 -29 063,5 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -308 959,5 -951 810,5 -1 921 573,4 -2 958 210,9 -4 046 098,2 -5 187 758,6 -6 263 960,9 -7 282 606,1 -8 240 066,2 -9 161 959,4 -10 006 938,7 -56 329 942,2 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -83,8 -255,8 -514,3 -790,4 -1 079,8 -1 383,3 -1 669,8 -1 941,1 -2 196,0 -2 441,3 -2 665,9 -15 021,5 Sum of FC 0,0
Net Welfare 10,0 -57,2 -335,4 -1 034,7 -2 078,1 -3 510,9 -5 186,1 -6 977,6 -8 848,7 -10 844,5 -12 820,7 -37 617 D27 CO2 eq WtW -2,7 -8,3 -16,7 -25,7 -35,1 -45,1 -54,4 -63,3 -71,6 -79,6 -87,0 -489,4 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D27 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost 0,1 -0,1 -477,7 -1 539,0 -3 294,6 -5 378,7 -7 791,0 -10 537,8 -13 304,2 -16 080,8 -18 858,8 -21 620 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 0,1 6,9 441,6 1 282,8 2 496,8 3 788,7 5 107,8 6 607,8 8 058,8 9 476,9 10 812,4 12 161 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax 0,0 -0,1 -18,3 -59,4 -127,8 -209,7 -304,7 -413,5 -523,1 -633,4 -743,9 -854 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax -0,3 5,3 460,9 1 437,9 2 914,5 4 484,6 6 114,2 7 811,2 9 401,2 10 896,0 12 292,3 13 625 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost 0,0 -0,0 -53,2 -171,6 -367,7 -597,1 -859,6 -1 155,6 -1 453,8 -1 753,3 -2 053,0 -2 351 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost -0,0 1,9 137,0 412,3 820,3 1 251,3 1 692,6 2 169,4 2 623,5 3 059,9 3 471,4 3 877 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost -0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,5 0,8 1,1 1,4 1,7 1,9 2,0 2 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs -0,0 0,0 1,0 3,4 7,2 11,0 14,6 17,6 20,1 21,7 22,2 22 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,0 -0,1 -8,8 -24,7 -44,6 -61,4 -73,5 -84,0 -91,1 -95,4 -96,6 -97 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,0 -0,2 -0,7 -1,3 -1,8 -2,2 -2,7 -3,1 -3,4 -3,6 -4 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects 14,0 470,3 865,0 1 075,2 905,6 640,9 552,3 361,2 211,7 11,1 -23,2 4 354 Sum of utility of households 12,1 415,2 1 154,4 2 073,9 2 847,6 3 397,2 3 875,9 4 190,7 4 381,5 4 413,0 4 422,2 23 838 Sum of production costs 1,8 68,9 193,0 342,7 461,4 531,4 575,7 584,3 560,1 488,1 399,0 3 271 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -369,4 -1 161,6 -2 367,4 -3 662,3 -5 018,6 -6 438,5 -7 774,7 -9 035,6 -10 217,4 -11 346,6 -42 746 Sum of C6H6 exhaust -0,4 0,8 4,7 11,5 20,3 29,5 39,5 49,2 58,0 65,8 73,1 352,1 Sum of CH4 exhaust -1,2 -1,1 0,1 2,9 5,2 6,6 7,6 7,2 5,5 1,6 -2,9 31,5 Sum of CO exhaust -63,2 333,3 1 454,1 3 440,8 6 029,2 8 902,0 12 059,0 15 224,0 18 287,7 21 119,8 23 824,4 110 611,1 Sum of CO2 exhaust -2 352 431,4 -7 206 974,7 -14 520 959,5 -22 303 395,0 -30 469 960,3 -39 039 895,9 -47 093 275,7 -54 707 896,1 -61 859 255,6 -68 744 553,8 -75 046 914,9 -423 345 512,9 Sum of N2O exhaust 1,6 24,9 66,1 115,7 157,9 189,2 216,9 237,1 250,9 256,9 261,4 1 778,5 Sum of NMVOC exhaust -3,3 50,8 170,3 350,7 551,5 741,3 936,9 1 108,6 1 255,1 1 363,5 1 455,2 7 980,6 Sum of NOx exhaust -179,1 -465,0 -779,3 -991,0 -1 189,9 -1 401,9 -1 659,9 -1 998,8 -2 419,4 -2 939,2 -3 516,7 -17 540,0 Sum of PM exhaust -2,4 0,2 8,1 17,1 18,5 12,9 0,3 -20,4 -47,1 -80,2 -115,8 -208,9 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 4,9 13,9 25,1 34,6 41,4 47,2 51,0 53,0 52,6 51,7 375,4 Sum of SO2 exhaust -14,7 -45,9 -92,9 -143,0 -195,5 -250,1 -301,6 -350,1 -395,4 -438,7 -478,2 -2 706,1 Sum of VOC exhaust -4,6 49,0 169,0 351,7 554,4 745,5 941,8 1 113,0 1 257,7 1 362,5 1 450,1 7 990,0 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -144,9 -454,9 -930,9 -1 450,5 -2 004,0 -2 596,7 -3 169,9 -3 726,8 -4 266,3 -4 801,7 -5 310,8 -28 857,6 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -309 266,0 -948 887,6 -1 912 425,7 -2 938 491,5 -4 014 152,1 -5 142 503,3 -6 203 735,2 -7 207 243,3 -8 149 710,5 -9 056 901,4 -9 887 579,2 -55 770 895,8 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -84,2 -255,9 -513,7 -788,2 -1 075,9 -1 377,0 -1 660,7 -1 929,1 -2 181,1 -2 423,6 -2 645,4 -14 934,7 Sum of FC -744 538,2 -2 280 701,7 -4 595 021,5 -7 057 478,1 -9 641 328,9 -12 352 642,9 -14 900 518,9 -17 309 531,8 -19 571 898,5 -21 750 019,9 -23 743 583,1 -133 947 263,6
Net Welfare 10,0 114,7 185,8 49,1 -353,3 -1 090,0 -1 987,0 -2 999,6 -4 093,9 -5 316,4 -6 525,4 -15 637 D27 CO2 eq WtW -2,7 -8,2 -16,6 -25,5 -34,8 -44,6 -53,8 -62,5 -70,7 -78,6 -85,8 -483,7 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D28 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -458,8 -1 402,8 -2 844,2 -4 303,8 -5 773,6 -7 248,0 -8 725,5 -10 198,0 -11 660,7 -13 103,2 -48 987 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 387,5 1 093,1 2 035,9 2 941,7 3 770,4 4 642,9 5 472,4 6 279,0 7 025,8 7 804,8 31 091 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -18,4 -55,9 -113,0 -170,9 -229,1 -287,6 -346,1 -404,5 -462,4 -519,8 -1 944 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 397,8 1 220,2 2 392,3 3 526,6 4 595,3 5 607,1 6 534,8 7 398,3 8 201,6 8 975,1 36 654 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -51,0 -156,0 -316,4 -479,3 -643,6 -808,6 -974,3 -1 139,6 -1 304,1 -1 466,5 -5 470 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 118,3 347,9 666,0 972,9 1 258,5 1 543,3 1 809,8 2 064,3 2 301,8 2 540,5 10 218 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,5 0,8 1,2 1,5 1,8 2,1 2,3 2,6 10 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 1,0 3,4 7,2 11,0 14,7 17,9 20,6 22,8 24,5 26,1 112 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -6,7 -18,9 -33,3 -45,7 -54,9 -63,6 -69,6 -74,0 -76,5 -79,3 -398 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,5 -0,9 -1,3 -1,6 -1,9 -2,2 -2,4 -2,5 -2,7 -12 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 1,7 5,7 12,2 19,3 26,1 32,6 38,3 43,2 47,4 51,6 208 Sum of utility of households 12,1 316,1 878,6 1 530,1 2 091,2 2 506,3 2 909,9 3 193,5 3 403,5 3 514,4 3 650,1 18 292 Sum of production costs 1,8 55,2 157,8 276,1 380,0 456,8 525,7 566,6 587,7 582,9 579,2 3 190 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -320,5 -989,7 -1 949,6 -2 883,4 -3 768,2 -4 607,5 -5 380,5 -6 102,7 -6 776,8 -7 426,1 -30 152 Sum of C6H6 exhaust -0,8 -0,6 1,1 5,1 10,8 16,9 24,0 30,6 36,6 41,9 46,9 212,6 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,6 -0,3 0,8 3,1 5,2 7,2 9,2 10,2 10,3 9,0 7,6 61,7 Sum of CO exhaust -112,4 68,0 740,8 2 037,5 3 773,7 5 724,1 7 902,6 10 046,5 12 100,2 13 987,5 15 825,5 72 094,0 Sum of CO2 exhaust -2 049 492,0 -6 179 579,9 -12 022 588,2 -17 668 748,3 -23 025 311,3 -28 117 504,6 -32 786 007,2 -37 159 415,9 -41 251 758,8 -45 234 756,4 -48 802 036,1 -294 297 198,6 Sum of N2O exhaust 1,3 19,2 51,0 86,8 117,8 141,5 164,5 181,9 195,4 204,2 214,0 1 377,5 Sum of NMVOC exhaust -8,0 22,8 97,7 214,5 349,5 481,2 622,8 744,4 848,9 928,2 1 002,8 5 304,7 Sum of NOx exhaust -117,9 -334,6 -571,1 -707,4 -805,0 -905,3 -1 034,3 -1 227,2 -1 474,9 -1 784,2 -2 116,7 -11 078,6 Sum of PM exhaust 2,1 9,7 23,6 36,7 44,4 46,0 43,0 34,2 21,8 5,8 -10,5 256,7 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 3,7 10,8 19,1 26,4 31,9 37,2 40,9 43,5 44,8 46,3 304,7 Sum of SO2 exhaust -12,8 -39,3 -76,9 -113,2 -147,6 -180,1 -210,2 -238,1 -264,1 -289,3 -311,7 -1 883,3 Sum of VOC exhaust -8,7 21,9 97,4 216,2 353,2 486,8 630,2 752,9 857,4 935,7 1 009,1 5 352,1 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -124,0 -383,0 -760,1 -1 134,8 -1 496,5 -1 849,0 -2 182,5 -2 504,0 -2 814,7 -3 126,1 -3 417,3 -19 791,9 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -269 561,6 -813 764,8 -1 583 799,0 -2 328 590,6 -3 034 604,8 -3 705 623,7 -4 321 442,4 -4 898 363,0 -5 438 236,0 -5 963 532,7 -6 434 378,4 -38 791 896,9 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -74,0 -221,5 -429,5 -630,3 -821,0 -1 001,9 -1 168,1 -1 323,8 -1 469,5 -1 611,4 -1 738,3 -10 489,3 Sum of FC -648 739,1 -1 955 832,6 -3 804 860,9 -5 591 549,7 -7 286 548,2 -8 897 808,8 -10 374 991,4 -11 758 762,8 -13 053 556,4 -14 313 716,2 -15 442 250,8 -93 128 617,1
Net Welfare 10,0 50,8 46,7 -143,4 -412,2 -805,0 -1 172,0 -1 620,5 -2 111,5 -2 679,5 -3 196,8 -8 671 D28 CO2 eq WtW -2,3 -7,1 -13,7 -20,2 -26,3 -32,1 -37,5 -42,5 -47,1 -51,7 -55,8 -336,2 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D29 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -488,4 -1 504,5 -3 059,9 -4 637,5 -6 229,3 -7 830,2 -9 437,7 -11 043,8 -12 643,2 -14 224,8 -52 982 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 404,7 1 152,1 2 160,6 3 133,2 4 026,9 4 962,8 5 851,0 6 712,7 7 510,1 8 338,5 33 182 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -19,8 -60,4 -122,7 -185,9 -249,7 -314,0 -378,7 -443,4 -508,0 -572,1 -2 127 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 415,4 1 280,9 2 520,2 3 722,7 4 857,6 5 931,1 6 914,3 7 828,3 8 677,0 9 493,6 38 743 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -51,0 -156,0 -316,5 -479,4 -643,7 -808,7 -974,4 -1 139,7 -1 304,1 -1 466,4 -5 470 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 120,4 355,1 681,2 996,3 1 290,0 1 582,6 1 856,4 2 117,6 2 361,4 2 606,3 10 475 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,5 0,8 1,1 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,5 7 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 1,1 3,6 7,6 11,4 14,6 17,0 18,2 18,3 17,3 15,9 95 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -6,8 -19,4 -34,2 -46,9 -56,4 -65,0 -70,8 -74,6 -76,4 -78,5 -404 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,5 -1,0 -1,3 -1,7 -2,0 -2,2 -2,4 -2,6 -2,7 -13 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 1,8 6,3 13,3 20,8 27,6 33,1 37,0 39,2 40,0 40,5 196 Sum of utility of households 12,1 320,0 892,3 1 559,0 2 135,0 2 562,6 2 975,0 3 262,2 3 471,5 3 577,0 3 705,2 18 649 Sum of production costs 1,8 57,3 165,0 290,2 399,1 474,4 533,0 552,3 542,3 496,2 446,7 3 055 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -338,6 -1 052,0 -2 081,0 -3 085,1 -4 038,8 -4 943,3 -5 776,1 -6 553,6 -7 278,8 -7 977,2 -32 335 Sum of C6H6 exhaust -1,2 -1,7 -0,7 3,2 9,1 15,8 23,6 30,9 37,5 43,2 48,7 208,4 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,7 -0,6 0,5 2,8 5,1 7,2 9,3 10,3 10,2 8,7 6,9 59,7 Sum of CO exhaust -174,3 -97,0 488,5 1 799,3 3 633,5 5 740,3 8 115,9 10 458,8 12 708,3 14 778,2 16 796,8 74 248,3 Sum of CO2 exhaust -2 157 956,3 -6 550 679,3 -12 804 068,3 -18 868 917,5 -24 636 635,1 -30 116 420,6 -35 143 153,4 -39 850 607,8 -44 251 747,7 -48 537 317,4 -52 392 816,4 -315 310 319,8 Sum of N2O exhaust 1,5 20,0 53,0 90,0 121,9 146,1 169,3 186,0 198,6 206,0 214,0 1 406,5 Sum of NMVOC exhaust -12,9 10,4 78,9 197,5 339,2 479,4 628,7 754,5 859,3 934,6 1 002,2 5 271,8 Sum of NOx exhaust -140,5 -401,3 -695,2 -874,1 -1 007,7 -1 143,0 -1 321,4 -1 583,1 -1 919,2 -2 337,0 -2 794,1 -14 216,6 Sum of PM exhaust 3,5 13,8 31,4 47,2 56,2 57,8 53,5 42,4 26,7 6,6 -14,5 324,7 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 3,8 11,0 19,7 27,1 32,6 37,6 40,7 42,4 42,4 42,5 299,9 Sum of SO2 exhaust -13,5 -41,7 -81,9 -120,9 -158,0 -192,9 -225,2 -255,2 -283,1 -310,0 -334,2 -2 016,5 Sum of VOC exhaust -13,8 9,2 78,1 198,8 342,7 484,9 636,2 763,0 867,8 941,8 1 007,8 5 316,4 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -129,9 -403,4 -803,1 -1 200,9 -1 585,1 -1 958,9 -2 312,1 -2 652,2 -2 980,1 -3 308,5 -3 615,9 -20 950,3 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -284 017,2 -863 172,3 -1 687 744,1 -2 488 161,4 -3 248 761,5 -3 971 227,7 -4 634 622,4 -5 255 946,3 -5 836 904,3 -6 402 476,7 -6 911 665,1 -41 584 699,0 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -78,8 -237,6 -463,0 -681,4 -889,2 -1 086,2 -1 267,4 -1 437,4 -1 596,4 -1 751,4 -1 890,9 -11 379,8 Sum of FC -683 164,3 -2 073 582,7 -4 052 756,0 -5 972 212,6 -7 797 579,6 -9 531 726,3 -11 122 506,8 -12 612 232,9 -14 004 994,1 -15 361 160,7 -16 581 164,8 -99 793 080,8
Net Welfare 10,0 38,7 5,3 -231,8 -551,0 -1 001,8 -1 435,3 -1 961,5 -2 539,9 -3 205,6 -3 825,3 -10 631 D29 CO2 eq WtW -2,5 -7,5 -14,6 -21,6 -28,1 -34,4 -40,2 -45,5 -50,6 -55,5 -59,9 -360,3 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D30 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -488,4 -1 505,0 -3 061,0 -4 638,7 -6 230,2 -7 829,8 -9 437,0 -11 042,3 -12 640,9 -14 221,2 -52 979 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 343,8 999,3 1 870,5 2 703,2 3 435,5 4 243,9 4 999,3 5 732,2 6 372,5 7 097,2 28 355 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -19,8 -60,5 -122,8 -186,0 -249,8 -314,0 -378,7 -443,3 -507,8 -571,8 -2 127 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 509,8 1 519,0 2 941,2 4 312,1 5 598,7 6 819,0 7 923,3 8 943,9 9 885,8 10 801,0 44 495 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -51,0 -156,1 -316,6 -479,6 -643,8 -808,8 -974,4 -1 139,6 -1 303,9 -1 466,0 -5 470 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 126,6 370,7 705,7 1 027,1 1 321,1 1 618,4 1 891,8 2 151,0 2 386,3 2 631,6 10 681 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,5 0,8 1,1 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,5 1,5 7 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 1,1 3,6 7,6 11,4 14,7 17,0 18,2 18,3 17,3 15,9 95 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -7,7 -21,5 -37,5 -51,0 -60,6 -69,9 -75,8 -79,5 -80,4 -82,8 -433 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,6 -1,1 -1,5 -1,9 -2,2 -2,5 -2,7 -2,8 -3,0 -14 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 1,9 6,5 13,8 21,6 28,7 34,7 39,1 41,7 43,1 44,2 208 Sum of utility of households 12,1 358,3 989,0 1 710,6 2 324,9 2 753,9 3 196,2 3 481,5 3 678,9 3 732,6 3 866,3 19 928 Sum of production costs 1,8 57,8 166,7 289,8 394,4 459,5 513,3 523,2 502,3 438,0 380,4 2 891 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -416,1 -1 247,9 -2 428,5 -3 573,0 -4 654,1 -5 681,4 -6 616,4 -7 484,2 -8 289,1 -9 070,7 -37 121 Sum of C6H6 exhaust -1,2 -1,5 -0,4 3,6 9,6 16,2 23,9 31,1 37,5 42,8 48,1 209,5 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,7 -0,8 0,1 1,9 3,7 5,0 6,6 6,8 5,9 3,1 0,4 32,1 Sum of CO exhaust -174,4 -59,3 589,3 1 968,7 3 859,1 5 973,7 8 381,4 10 702,5 12 906,3 14 873,5 16 844,3 75 865,2 Sum of CO2 exhaust -2 644 898,0 -7 774 182,8 -14 965 685,3 -21 900 503,8 -28 457 634,5 -34 706 924,2 -40 361 779,4 -45 628 403,1 -50 521 391,2 -55 336 947,9 -59 557 208,3 -361 855 558,4 Sum of N2O exhaust 1,5 21,5 56,8 95,8 128,9 152,6 176,6 192,8 204,5 209,1 217,0 1 457,1 Sum of NMVOC exhaust -12,9 12,0 83,5 203,4 344,4 478,4 625,8 745,0 841,6 901,9 963,5 5 186,6 Sum of NOx exhaust -140,4 -392,5 -670,7 -830,0 -945,8 -1 073,0 -1 239,9 -1 499,6 -1 837,4 -2 268,2 -2 724,9 -13 622,4 Sum of PM exhaust 3,5 14,6 33,7 51,1 61,2 63,2 59,8 48,7 32,8 11,6 -9,4 370,7 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 4,1 11,8 20,7 28,3 33,6 38,7 41,5 42,8 42,0 41,9 305,5 Sum of SO2 exhaust -16,6 -49,4 -95,5 -140,0 -181,9 -221,5 -257,7 -291,0 -321,9 -351,8 -378,1 -2 305,4 Sum of VOC exhaust -13,8 10,7 82,4 203,9 346,8 482,0 631,0 750,6 846,5 904,3 963,6 5 207,9 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -159,5 -479,4 -939,1 -1 394,3 -1 831,5 -2 257,7 -2 656,0 -3 037,2 -3 403,0 -3 772,4 -4 111,1 -24 041,2 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -348 136,4 -1 024 504,8 -1 972 927,6 -2 888 343,6 -3 753 137,0 -4 577 036,2 -5 323 438,6 -6 018 609,4 -6 664 513,4 -7 299 885,9 -7 857 307,9 -47 727 840,8 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -96,8 -282,9 -543,2 -794,0 -1 031,2 -1 256,8 -1 461,3 -1 651,9 -1 829,0 -2 003,4 -2 156,1 -13 106,7 Sum of FC -837 348,3 -2 460 992,2 -4 737 230,8 -6 932 168,5 -9 007 499,7 -10 985 288,6 -12 774 939,1 -14 441 682,1 -15 990 130,3 -17 514 042,5 -18 849 467,5 -114 530 789,8
Net Welfare 10,0 -0,0 -92,3 -428,2 -853,7 -1 440,7 -1 971,9 -2 611,6 -3 303,0 -4 118,4 -4 824,1 -14 302 D30 CO2 eq WtW -3,0 -8,9 -17,1 -25,0 -32,5 -39,7 -46,1 -52,1 -57,7 -63,3 -68,1 -413,6 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D31 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -548,0 -1 707,8 -3 486,0 -5 291,6 -7 118,2 -8 961,1 -10 819,3 -12 683,4 -14 547,8 -16 398,9 -60 754 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 361,2 1 057,5 1 991,1 2 886,2 3 680,0 4 549,3 5 362,2 6 150,1 6 841,9 7 617,1 30 371 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -22,5 -69,7 -141,9 -215,6 -290,2 -365,7 -442,3 -519,3 -596,8 -674,2 -2 486 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 528,2 1 581,4 3 071,2 4 510,6 5 863,9 7 146,6 8 307,9 9 380,7 10 370,1 11 330,7 46 618 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -51,0 -156,1 -316,5 -479,3 -643,5 -808,3 -973,8 -1 138,9 -1 303,1 -1 465,1 -5 467 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 128,7 377,9 720,8 1 050,2 1 352,2 1 657,3 1 938,2 2 204,5 2 446,6 2 698,6 10 939 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 -0,0 -0,1 -0,3 -0,5 -0,7 -1,1 -1,7 -2,5 -3,4 -4,6 -11 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 -0,3 -0,9 -1,9 -3,4 -5,9 -10,1 -16,2 -24,0 -33,5 -44,0 -100 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -7,1 -19,7 -33,8 -45,4 -52,9 -59,8 -63,1 -64,0 -61,9 -61,1 -361 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,6 -1,1 -1,5 -1,9 -2,2 -2,4 -2,7 -2,8 -2,9 -14 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 -0,2 -0,0 0,2 0,5 -0,6 -3,7 -9,3 -17,3 -27,7 -38,5 -67 Sum of utility of households 12,1 353,9 973,4 1 676,9 2 271,3 2 677,2 3 092,0 3 343,8 3 502,3 3 511,1 3 596,6 19 127 Sum of production costs 1,8 34,8 88,5 124,9 138,8 104,9 49,2 -63,6 -219,0 -429,6 -639,6 -459 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -437,8 -1 321,3 -2 581,4 -3 806,2 -4 966,6 -6 069,3 -7 074,9 -8 009,3 -8 876,6 -9 718,6 -39 662 Sum of C6H6 exhaust -1,2 -1,6 -0,5 3,3 8,9 14,9 21,9 28,1 33,5 37,9 42,4 187,4 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,7 -1,1 -0,9 -0,1 0,6 0,5 0,7 -0,7 -3,3 -8,1 -12,7 -25,8 Sum of CO exhaust -175,7 -73,1 541,8 1 849,3 3 619,4 5 555,2 7 727,8 9 770,4 11 669,1 13 319,4 14 976,3 68 779,9 Sum of CO2 exhaust -2 757 091,0 -8 166 069,9 -15 797 467,1 -23 193 353,0 -30 204 864,8 -36 885 492,5 -42 943 822,4 -48 590 930,2 -53 839 957,7 -59 005 391,9 -63 561 572,1 -384 946 012,4 Sum of N2O exhaust 1,3 19,5 50,9 84,3 111,5 128,8 145,7 154,4 157,8 153,7 152,6 1 160,7 Sum of NMVOC exhaust -13,6 5,7 65,1 164,7 280,6 383,7 494,3 571,6 621,8 632,5 643,1 3 849,7 Sum of NOx exhaust -129,9 -366,7 -629,4 -793,4 -918,4 -1 060,3 -1 258,7 -1 566,8 -1 968,2 -2 478,0 -3 026,2 -14 196,1 Sum of PM exhaust 2,7 11,9 28,0 42,1 49,3 47,6 40,3 24,6 3,3 -24,3 -52,3 173,2 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 3,3 9,3 15,6 20,4 22,7 24,4 23,4 20,7 15,4 10,8 166,1 Sum of SO2 exhaust -17,3 -51,8 -100,5 -147,6 -192,0 -234,1 -272,3 -307,7 -340,3 -372,0 -400,1 -2 435,7 Sum of VOC exhaust -14,5 4,1 63,1 163,4 280,1 383,4 494,3 570,5 618,4 624,9 631,3 3 819,2 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -165,7 -500,9 -984,9 -1 465,8 -1 928,6 -2 379,2 -2 800,4 -3 203,5 -3 590,0 -3 980,0 -4 338,5 -25 337,5 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -363 057,1 -1 076 522,0 -2 083 329,8 -3 059 926,7 -3 984 979,8 -4 866 042,3 -5 665 910,8 -6 411 501,5 -7 104 601,7 -7 786 336,6 -8 388 145,7 -50 790 354,1 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -101,6 -299,6 -578,4 -848,5 -1 104,6 -1 347,9 -1 568,9 -1 775,1 -1 966,9 -2 155,6 -2 322,1 -14 069,2 Sum of FC -872 939,3 -2 585 297,1 -5 001 033,2 -7 342 179,5 -9 561 577,0 -11 676 100,1 -13 593 649,8 -15 381 009,6 -17 042 326,0 -18 677 159,3 -20 119 082,8 -121 852 353,7
Net Welfare 10,0 -49,1 -259,4 -779,6 -1 396,1 -2 184,4 -2 928,1 -3 794,7 -4 726,1 -5 795,0 -6 761,6 -20 994 D31 CO2 eq WtW -3,2 -9,3 -18,1 -26,5 -34,5 -42,2 -49,1 -55,6 -61,6 -67,5 -72,7 -440,1 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% D32 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix resource cost -0,1 -642,0 -2 024,3 -4 142,0 -6 293,8 -8 477,7 -10 690,0 -12 930,3 -15 189,1 -17 459,9 -19 725,6 -72 652 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var resource cost 6,9 381,3 1 123,6 2 125,5 3 088,5 3 950,5 4 887,1 5 764,3 6 614,2 7 364,2 8 196,5 32 611 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by fix tax -0,1 -26,8 -83,8 -171,2 -260,2 -351,0 -443,4 -537,7 -633,4 -730,3 -827,9 -3 026 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by var tax 5,3 549,7 1 653,4 3 218,9 4 734,5 6 162,7 7 515,5 8 740,9 9 872,9 10 916,5 11 928,7 49 015 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on fix res cost -0,0 -51,0 -156,0 -316,2 -478,8 -642,7 -807,2 -972,5 -1 137,5 -1 301,5 -1 463,4 -5 461 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by VAT on var res cost 1,9 131,3 386,2 737,8 1 076,0 1 386,9 1 700,9 1 990,2 2 264,7 2 514,5 2 774,2 11 228 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by network cost 0,0 -0,2 -0,8 -1,8 -2,8 -4,0 -5,5 -7,3 -9,5 -12,1 -15,0 -43 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by other costs 0,0 -3,0 -9,9 -20,7 -32,2 -45,3 -60,8 -79,2 -100,1 -123,6 -148,4 -458 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by in-vehicle time price -0,1 -6,0 -15,9 -25,8 -33,4 -36,7 -39,2 -37,7 -33,6 -26,3 -20,1 -216 Total Sum of CS+PS caused by waiting time price -0,0 -0,2 -0,6 -1,1 -1,5 -1,8 -2,1 -2,3 -2,5 -2,7 -2,8 -13 Total Sum of CS+PS from other effects -0,0 -4,1 -13,2 -27,1 -41,3 -57,6 -76,7 -99,6 -125,4 -154,2 -184,0 -577 Sum of utility of households 12,1 341,7 931,0 1 586,3 2 129,9 2 480,9 2 834,7 3 017,8 3 100,1 3 025,0 3 021,2 17 260 Sum of production costs 1,8 -12,8 -72,2 -210,0 -374,8 -597,6 -856,3 -1 189,0 -1 579,5 -2 040,5 -2 509,2 -6 853 Sum of cost of public funds (general) -3,8 -465,6 -1 413,9 -2 771,1 -4 093,5 -5 350,0 -6 544,6 -7 636,8 -8 653,3 -9 598,0 -10 515,0 -42 786 Sum of C6H6 exhaust -0,9 -0,9 0,6 4,3 9,1 13,9 19,1 23,4 26,9 29,4 32,1 157,0 Sum of CH4 exhaust -0,6 -1,6 -2,5 -3,7 -5,3 -7,8 -10,4 -14,8 -20,6 -28,6 -36,5 -132,5 Sum of CO exhaust -135,0 21,5 650,7 1 840,5 3 357,5 4 902,3 6 556,0 7 999,8 9 252,9 10 243,5 11 244,0 55 933,8 Sum of CO2 exhaust -2 889 563,7 -8 632 477,6 -16 786 318,5 -24 736 104,2 -32 293 494,1 -39 493 115,4 -46 039 738,6 -52 149 521,1 -57 833 224,7 -63 425 406,4 -68 391 946,0 -412 670 910,4 Sum of N2O exhaust 0,8 15,3 38,8 60,9 76,6 81,8 86,1 81,2 70,3 51,3 35,0 598,0 Sum of NMVOC exhaust -11,2 3,5 45,6 107,5 173,9 216,2 255,4 253,6 219,2 142,0 64,2 1 469,8 Sum of NOx exhaust -98,4 -288,5 -506,7 -676,4 -820,2 -995,0 -1 249,3 -1 632,5 -2 125,1 -2 741,3 -3 407,6 -14 541,0 Sum of PM exhaust 0,6 5,0 13,7 20,1 20,1 11,1 -3,4 -27,1 -57,4 -95,1 -133,9 -246,3 Sum of PM non-exhaust 0,0 1,8 4,3 5,3 4,6 1,1 -3,3 -10,8 -20,6 -33,2 -45,5 -96,3 Sum of SO2 exhaust -18,1 -54,6 -106,2 -156,2 -203,3 -248,0 -288,6 -326,1 -360,7 -394,2 -424,4 -2 580,3 Sum of VOC exhaust -12,0 1,6 42,2 103,2 168,6 208,7 245,8 240,1 200,5 115,9 30,6 1 345,1 Sum of CH4 well_to_tank -172,9 -526,4 -1 039,6 -1 551,7 -2 045,5 -2 525,8 -2 975,3 -3 405,5 -3 818,1 -4 234,0 -4 617,1 -26 911,9 Sum of CO2 well_to_tank -380 714,6 -1 138 552,7 -2 214 958,8 -3 265 313,7 -4 263 032,4 -5 213 117,9 -6 077 901,5 -6 884 969,3 -7 635 835,4 -8 374 234,2 -9 030 310,1 -54 478 940,7 Sum of N2O well_to_tank -107,5 -320,4 -622,4 -917,3 -1 197,4 -1 463,2 -1 705,3 -1 931,4 -2 141,7 -2 348,6 -2 532,5 -15 287,6 Sum of FC -914 986,1 -2 733 345,8 -5 314 927,5 -7 831 900,0 -10 224 547,9 -12 503 750,9 -14 576 222,9 -16 510 366,1 -18 309 574,8 -20 079 781,9 -21 651 877,2 -130 651 281,2
Net Welfare 10,0 -136,7 -555,1 -1 394,8 -2 338,4 -3 466,7 -4 566,2 -5 808,1 -7 132,7 -8 613,4 -10 002,9 -32 379 D32 CO2 eq WtW -3,3 -9,9 -19,2 -28,3 -36,9 -45,2 -52,7 -59,7 -66,2 -72,6 -78,3 -472,1 (1) CO2eq = CO2 + 23 x CH4 + 296 x N2O
Source: TREMOVE 2.43b 11 October 2006 UNITS: change in ton, change in million euro/year (SIM compared to BC) Positive number = Welfare gain Incremental cost analysis Integrated Approach
400
N1-60g
300
N1-45g
200 M1 120g M1 125g M1 130g 100 LVL N1-30g M1 135g LRRT 0 0 -50 -100 MAC -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 -400 -450 eq WtW cost €/t CO2 incremental TPMS N1-15g -100 GSI
-200 Cumulated Mt CO2 eq WtW 2010-2020
M1 (High costs) IA Segment total cost curves
-60000
M1 curve 2 -50000 y = -0.1948x + 60.134x + 2886.3 R2 = 1
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 -400 -450 0
IA Segment 3 2 10000 y = 0.0031x + 0.4539x - 44.762x + 2173.9 R2 = 0.9959
20000 Marginal cost analysis Integrated Approach
500
400 N1-60g
300 N1-45g
200 M1 120g N1-30g M1 125g
LVL M1 130g 100
M1 135g marginal cost €/t CO2 eq WtW
0 LRRT 0 -50 -100 MAC -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 -400 -450 TPMS GSI N1-15g -100 Cumulated Mt CO2 eq WtW 2010-2020
M1 (High costs) IA Segment